Targarean
2022-09-26

While all of the Fed members appear intent on continuing to increase rates from the current 3.0%-3.25% range, there are important disagreements too. For instance, the “dot-plots” that track where Fed officials see economic data and interest rates in the future show that members are evenly split between those who expect Federal Funds rates to peak at 4.75% next year, and those who see 4.5% and 4.25% as the top rates. Those might seem like relatively small differences, but they could make a big difference in the market, given how closely investors are watching rates. If Fed officials start leaning toward more dovish policy—raising interest rates more gradually—the market is likely to rise. But that still feels like a long shot.

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