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Et1502

Et1502

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03-31

Elon Musk & TSLA: Beyond Imagination & Truly Remarkable Achievement.

Tesla Celebrates 6 Million Vehicle Production Milestone

2023-10-05

Pipe Dream.... Dream harder!!!

Stock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for Nov. 18

2023-09-12

$TSLA$ has always been one of my favourite shares no matter what others have given the negative comment.

Tesla Stages $80 Billion Rally, Passing Berkshire Hathaway to Become the Seventh-Most Valuable Company in the World

2023-02-28

$TSLA$ TSLA 3-Giga Factories worldwide 1] TSLA Shanghai 2] TSLA Berlin 3] TSLA Texas with a fourth Giga Factory (in TSLA-Indonesia) coming on stage will captured all the EVs needed in the world. While AAPL is the King of SmartPhone, TSLA, in my humble opinion is the King of EVs.

2023-02-28

$TSLA$ Giga 3-Factories worldwide with a fourth Giga Factory (in Indonesia) coming on stage will captured all the EVs needed in the world.

@The Finance Hydra: TESLA STOCK: The Next Bullish Leg.From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn3csO8xcPc

2022-12-28

$TSLA$, in reply to the writer: Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain. Don't try to catch a falling (stone) knife !!! Maybe, I will consider around $80/share. But, if RECESSION is imminent, then it could be lower. 🤣🤣🤣, my humble thought only. Pls decide your own investment criteria & decision. TQ.

Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain

2022-12-12

$PayPal(PYPL)$ Yes, Bullish!!!

2022-12-10

$Apple(AAPL)$ $AAPL$ ramping up steadily...

2022-12-09

$ASML$ versus $TSMC$. Batman versus Robin I briefly read the article "If you love TSMC, you should love ASML. The Batman and Robin of chipmaking posted by author, upupahcai. Firstly, thanks to the author, who has initiate this discussion. My 2cents worth of note. If you have the world BEST technological know-how and/or equipment and cannot "sell" your product(s) to grow the company. Then, it is useless!!! 2-case study that would have captured the world by storm in the 1970s & 1980s. Sony versus Philips Video Casette Player/Recorder. Philips has the best Research & Development Team & Sony has the best Marketing Team. Who won the World most recognised Video-Cassette Player and huge revenue at that era? Toshiba versus Intel. Toshiba was the micro-chip master of that era. Due

2022-12-09

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Of Course

2022-12-07

$Apple(AAPL)$ YES

2022-12-05

$Netflix(NFLX)$ NFLX UP Up Up

2022-12-05

$PayPal(PYPL)$ Yes Yes Yes

2022-12-05

$Apple(AAPL)$ AAPL is Bullish

2022-12-03

$PayPal(PYPL)$ Merry X'mas & A nice gift!!!

2022-12-01

$Apple(AAPL)$ $AAPL$ onwards march....

2022-11-29

$Apple(AAPL)$ $AAPL$ is still one of myfavourities!!!

2022-11-29

$Apple(AAPL)$ AAPL is still one of my favourites.

2022-11-27

$PayPal(PYPL)$ YES

2022-11-25

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ BULLishness

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Musk &amp; TSLA: Beyond Imagination &amp; Truly Remarkable Achievement.","listText":"Elon Musk &amp; TSLA: Beyond Imagination &amp; Truly Remarkable Achievement.","text":"Elon Musk & TSLA: Beyond Imagination & Truly Remarkable Achievement.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290226482192568","repostId":"1111063930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111063930","pubTimestamp":1711789640,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111063930?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-30 17:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Celebrates 6 Million Vehicle Production Milestone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111063930","media":"Teslarati","summary":"Tesla has announced that it has reached a cumulative production of 6 million vehicles. 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The vehicle was surrounded by a group of Tesla employees who were celebrating the milestone. </p><p>Tesla thanked its customers over the years in its commemorative post. “Produced our 6 millionth car! Thank you to our owners &amp; teams around the world for your support &amp; hard work—it truly matters,” the electric vehicle maker wrote in its X post. </p><p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk celebrated the milestone in a post on X. “Congrats Tesla Team!” Musk wrote. </p><p>Tesla Vice President of Finance Sendil Palani provided some background on Tesla’s milestone. “After our initial ~2,400 vehicles (original Roadster, hand-assembled in the back of our Sales/Service location in Menlo Park, CA over five years), the Fremont factory was the site of our first ‘high volume’ product, the Model S. It launched at an aspirational capacity of 20,000 vehicles *per year*. Nice to celebrate our 6 millionth car pictured back where it all began,” the Tesla executive wrote. </p><p>What is particularly impressive about Tesla’s recent post is the fact that the company just announced a similar milestone about 6.5 months ago. In mid-September 2023, Tesla revealed that it had produced its 5 millionth car. And in early March 2023, Tesla announced on X, that it had produced its 4 millionth vehicle at Giga Texas. </p><p>Tesla’s production milestones show that the company has truly become a mainstream automaker that can stand toe-to-toe with the best in the electric vehicle sector. As per Tesla watchers, Tesla took a whole 12 years to produce 1 million vehicles. The 2 million-vehicle mark took 15 months, and hitting 3 million vehicles only took 10 months. </p></body></html>","source":"lsy1629091926461","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Celebrates 6 Million Vehicle Production Milestone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Celebrates 6 Million Vehicle Production Milestone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-30 17:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-6-million-vehicle-production-achieved/><strong>Teslarati</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla has announced that it has reached a cumulative production of 6 million vehicles. That’s an amazing achievement for a young carmaker that has so far only offered a handful of premium electric ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-6-million-vehicle-production-achieved/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-6-million-vehicle-production-achieved/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111063930","content_text":"Tesla has announced that it has reached a cumulative production of 6 million vehicles. That’s an amazing achievement for a young carmaker that has so far only offered a handful of premium electric cars to consumers since its earliest days. The electric vehicle maker announced the milestone in a post on social media platform X. As could be seen from the short video clip posted by Tesla, the company’s 6 millionth vehicle is a Stealth Gray Tesla Model Y produced at the Fremont Factory. The vehicle was surrounded by a group of Tesla employees who were celebrating the milestone. Tesla thanked its customers over the years in its commemorative post. “Produced our 6 millionth car! Thank you to our owners & teams around the world for your support & hard work—it truly matters,” the electric vehicle maker wrote in its X post. Tesla CEO Elon Musk celebrated the milestone in a post on X. “Congrats Tesla Team!” Musk wrote. Tesla Vice President of Finance Sendil Palani provided some background on Tesla’s milestone. “After our initial ~2,400 vehicles (original Roadster, hand-assembled in the back of our Sales/Service location in Menlo Park, CA over five years), the Fremont factory was the site of our first ‘high volume’ product, the Model S. It launched at an aspirational capacity of 20,000 vehicles *per year*. Nice to celebrate our 6 millionth car pictured back where it all began,” the Tesla executive wrote. What is particularly impressive about Tesla’s recent post is the fact that the company just announced a similar milestone about 6.5 months ago. In mid-September 2023, Tesla revealed that it had produced its 5 millionth car. And in early March 2023, Tesla announced on X, that it had produced its 4 millionth vehicle at Giga Texas. Tesla’s production milestones show that the company has truly become a mainstream automaker that can stand toe-to-toe with the best in the electric vehicle sector. As per Tesla watchers, Tesla took a whole 12 years to produce 1 million vehicles. The 2 million-vehicle mark took 15 months, and hitting 3 million vehicles only took 10 months.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":227095707348992,"gmtCreate":1696496567794,"gmtModify":1696496574210,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pipe Dream.... Dream harder!!!","listText":"Pipe Dream.... Dream harder!!!","text":"Pipe Dream.... Dream harder!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/227095707348992","repostId":"1110040591","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1110040591","pubTimestamp":1696494136,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110040591?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-05 16:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for Nov. 18","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110040591","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The ouster of Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker has raised the likelihood of a government shutdown on Nov. 18.The uncertainty in Washington, D.C. has added to the wall of worries that the stock market i","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The ouster of Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker has raised the likelihood of a government shutdown on Nov. 18.</p></li><li><p>The uncertainty in Washington, D.C. has added to the wall of worries that the stock market is climbing.</p></li><li><p>A government shutdown at this point would no doubt send equities for a loop.</p></li></ul><p>With Congress in chaos following the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the odds of a government shutdown occurring in November just went up exponentially. It also increases the risks of a stock market crash.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While a government shutdown was narrowly averted on Sept. 30, federal funding has only been secured through Nov. 17 by the stopgap legislation McCarthy managed to push through the House of Representatives and Senate. Without a new deal being brokered between Republicans and Democrats, a shutdown of the federal government could occur on Nov. 18, a situation that would likely throw already jittery markets for a loop.</p><h2 id=\"id_1565532178\" style=\"text-align: start;\">The Downfall of Kevin McCarthy</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Kevin McCarthy has made history by becoming the first Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to be ousted from the job. The Republican Congressman’s fate was sealed when he brokered the passage of a stopgap spending bill to keep the U.S. government running with support from the rival Democratic Party. McCarthy’s cooperation with the Democrats angered a small group of hardline conservatives who quickly took steps to vote him out as Speaker.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a historic vote, eight Republicans joined with all Democrats in voting to remove McCarthy through a procedure called a “motion to vacate.” In the end, members of the House of Representatives voted 216 to 210 in favor of removing McCarthy as Speaker, with some members not present for the vote. McCarthy said he will not run for House Speaker again. Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry was chosen to preside temporarily over the lower chamber of Congress until a new permanent Speaker is chosen.</p><p>Getting agreement on long-term funding to keep the U.S. government afloat after Nov. 17 has now been complicated by the lack of a House Speaker. While Republican lawmakers fight amongst themselves, no negotiations are taking place with the Democrats. The next House Speaker is likely to face continued issues caused by Republican hardliners who continuously block their own party’s legislation and upend their political strategies.</p><h2 id=\"id_2032102705\" style=\"text-align: start;\">What It Means for Markets and a Potential Stock Market Crash</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Stocks are already on edge and slumping due to a combination of worries that include bond yields that are at their highest level in more than 15 years, crude oil prices that are back above $85 a barrel, a rapid economic slowdown in China, and the prospect that interest rates could remain higher for much longer than previously anticipated. The stock market slump that began in August has accelerated, with the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> having now turned negative on the year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">A leadership vacuum in the House of Representatives following McCarthy’s removal as speaker, coupled with the prospect of a government shutdown on Nov. 18, is only adding to the uncertainty that is pulling equities lower right now. Talk is growing online of a perfect storm developing that could lead to a market crash. Moody’s recently warned that Washington’s political polarization could result in a rating downgrade on U.S. debt as the turmoil negatively impacts America’s fiscal situation.</p><h2 id=\"id_3639174136\" style=\"text-align: start;\">What’s Next</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While several names are being bandied about for the role of House Speaker, chief among them Louisiana Republican Steve Scalise, it is not yet clear who might take up the gavel in the coming weeks. It’s also not clear how Republicans and Democrats will find consensus on funding the federal government past Nov. 17. The political uncertainty is likely to intensify in the coming weeks and exert further downward pressure on stocks. Investors should prepare for more drama ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for Nov. 18</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Crash Alert: Mark Your Calendars for Nov. 18\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-05 16:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/10/stock-market-crash-alert/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The ouster of Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker has raised the likelihood of a government shutdown on Nov. 18.The uncertainty in Washington, D.C. has added to the wall of worries that the stock market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/10/stock-market-crash-alert/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/10/stock-market-crash-alert/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110040591","content_text":"The ouster of Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker has raised the likelihood of a government shutdown on Nov. 18.The uncertainty in Washington, D.C. has added to the wall of worries that the stock market is climbing.A government shutdown at this point would no doubt send equities for a loop.With Congress in chaos following the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the odds of a government shutdown occurring in November just went up exponentially. It also increases the risks of a stock market crash.While a government shutdown was narrowly averted on Sept. 30, federal funding has only been secured through Nov. 17 by the stopgap legislation McCarthy managed to push through the House of Representatives and Senate. Without a new deal being brokered between Republicans and Democrats, a shutdown of the federal government could occur on Nov. 18, a situation that would likely throw already jittery markets for a loop.The Downfall of Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthy has made history by becoming the first Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to be ousted from the job. The Republican Congressman’s fate was sealed when he brokered the passage of a stopgap spending bill to keep the U.S. government running with support from the rival Democratic Party. McCarthy’s cooperation with the Democrats angered a small group of hardline conservatives who quickly took steps to vote him out as Speaker.In a historic vote, eight Republicans joined with all Democrats in voting to remove McCarthy through a procedure called a “motion to vacate.” In the end, members of the House of Representatives voted 216 to 210 in favor of removing McCarthy as Speaker, with some members not present for the vote. McCarthy said he will not run for House Speaker again. Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry was chosen to preside temporarily over the lower chamber of Congress until a new permanent Speaker is chosen.Getting agreement on long-term funding to keep the U.S. government afloat after Nov. 17 has now been complicated by the lack of a House Speaker. While Republican lawmakers fight amongst themselves, no negotiations are taking place with the Democrats. The next House Speaker is likely to face continued issues caused by Republican hardliners who continuously block their own party’s legislation and upend their political strategies.What It Means for Markets and a Potential Stock Market CrashStocks are already on edge and slumping due to a combination of worries that include bond yields that are at their highest level in more than 15 years, crude oil prices that are back above $85 a barrel, a rapid economic slowdown in China, and the prospect that interest rates could remain higher for much longer than previously anticipated. The stock market slump that began in August has accelerated, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average having now turned negative on the year.A leadership vacuum in the House of Representatives following McCarthy’s removal as speaker, coupled with the prospect of a government shutdown on Nov. 18, is only adding to the uncertainty that is pulling equities lower right now. Talk is growing online of a perfect storm developing that could lead to a market crash. Moody’s recently warned that Washington’s political polarization could result in a rating downgrade on U.S. debt as the turmoil negatively impacts America’s fiscal situation.What’s NextWhile several names are being bandied about for the role of House Speaker, chief among them Louisiana Republican Steve Scalise, it is not yet clear who might take up the gavel in the coming weeks. It’s also not clear how Republicans and Democrats will find consensus on funding the federal government past Nov. 17. The political uncertainty is likely to intensify in the coming weeks and exert further downward pressure on stocks. Investors should prepare for more drama ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":219182585237528,"gmtCreate":1694514741802,"gmtModify":1694514746177,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$TSLA$ has always&nbsp;been one of&nbsp;my favourite shares no matter what others have given the negative comment.","listText":"$TSLA$ has always&nbsp;been one of&nbsp;my favourite shares no matter what others have given the negative comment.","text":"$TSLA$ has always been one of my favourite shares no matter what others have given the negative comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/219182585237528","repostId":"1129322028","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129322028","pubTimestamp":1694475020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129322028?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-12 07:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stages $80 Billion Rally, Passing Berkshire Hathaway to Become the Seventh-Most Valuable Company in the World","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129322028","media":"Forbes","summary":"TOPLINETesla rallied to its highest share price in more than a month Monday, riding an upgrade from Morgan Stanley touting a non-vehicle revenue stream which could justify a more than $1 trillion mark","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3400125405\" style=\"text-align: start;\">TOPLINE</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tesla rallied to its highest share price in more than a month Monday, riding an upgrade from Morgan Stanley touting a non-vehicle revenue stream which could justify a more than $1 trillion market capitalization for the Elon Musk-led firm.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e1924e88cd098dcc054805e60f52ebc\" alt=\"A Tesla store in Shanghai last week.\" title=\"A Tesla store in Shanghai last week.\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"810\"/><span>A Tesla store in Shanghai last week.</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3823200907\" style=\"text-align: start;\">KEY FACTS</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Tesla stock gained about 10% to nearly $274, closing at its highest level since July 19.</p></li><li><p>That’s Tesla’s largest single-day surge since January.</p></li><li><p>The spike comes after Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Jonas changed their rating for the electric vehicle stock from hold to buy, upping their price target from $250 to $400.</p></li><li><p>Chief behind Morgan Stanley’s upgrade was its optimism for Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer, which Jonas estimated could add up to $500 billion in enterprise value for Tesla, which currently has a market capitalization of about $800 billion.</p></li><li><p>Dojo, which is Tesla’s artificial intelligence technological network primarily designed to train its self-driving vehicles using video data, can help Tesla &#34;extend well beyond selling vehicles at a fixed price&#34; and become a power player in the lucrative software-as-a-service market, Jonas wrote.</p></li><li><p>Jonas and company’s price target is easily the highest among any analysts tracked by FactSet, predicting Tesla to hit its highest split-adjusted level since January 2022.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1317192068\" style=\"text-align: start;\">BIG NUMBER</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">$79.9 billion. That’s how much market cap Tesla gained Monday, passing Berkshire Hathaway to become the seventh-most valuable company in the world.</p><h2 id=\"id_1342083524\" style=\"text-align: start;\">CRUCIAL QUOTE</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Dojo may have the capability to be the core of the ‘Muskonomy,’” Jonas wrote, predicting the machine learning technology could become core to Tesla CEO Musk’s social media company X and aeronautics and communications firm SpaceX as well.</p><h2 id=\"id_2987984230\" style=\"text-align: start;\">KEY BACKGROUND</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Musk told investors in July that Tesla will spend “well over” $1 billion on developing Dojo over the next year. “With Dojo, [Tesla] believes it will be able to have a supercomputer specifically designed for its image and video processing needs,” Deutsche Bank analysts led by Emmanuel Rosner wrote in a note to clients last week. Tesla shares are up more than 100% year-to-date, placing the stock among the top returners on the S&amp;P 500 in 2023. Still, Tesla is down roughly 35% from its pandemic peak. Jonas had an apparent change of heart about Tesla’s AI prospects, warning investors in June that “autonomous driving and generative AI still remain, in our view, two very different technological disciplines.” AI-exposed stocks have captained the broader market’s gains this year, led by Nvidia’s more than 200% gain which has sent the graphics processing unit maker’s market cap to over $1 trillion.</p><h2 id=\"id_4145589269\" style=\"text-align: start;\">CHIEF CRITIC</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Dojo is the “primary place where Tesla stands to benefit from the recent advances in AI,” but generating any revenue from selling the service to outside firms is likely a “considerably long-dated opportunity,” Barclays analysts led by Dan Levy wrote in June.</p><h2 id=\"id_1412218402\" style=\"text-align: start;\">FORBES VALUATION</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Musk, Tesla’s largest individual shareholder, is worth $261 billion, according to <em>Forbes</em>’ calculations. He’s by far the richest person in the world, worth more than $60 billion more than the next-richest man, LVMH chairman Bernard Arnault. Musk grew nearly $19 billion richer Monday alone.</p></body></html>","source":"fors","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stages $80 Billion Rally, Passing Berkshire Hathaway to Become the Seventh-Most Valuable Company in the World</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stages $80 Billion Rally, Passing Berkshire Hathaway to Become the Seventh-Most Valuable Company in the World\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-12 07:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/09/11/tesla-stages-80-billion-rally-after-morgan-stanley-ups-price-target-on-ai-optimism/?sh=6ae299095a31><strong>Forbes</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>TOPLINETesla rallied to its highest share price in more than a month Monday, riding an upgrade from Morgan Stanley touting a non-vehicle revenue stream which could justify a more than $1 trillion ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/09/11/tesla-stages-80-billion-rally-after-morgan-stanley-ups-price-target-on-ai-optimism/?sh=6ae299095a31\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/09/11/tesla-stages-80-billion-rally-after-morgan-stanley-ups-price-target-on-ai-optimism/?sh=6ae299095a31","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129322028","content_text":"TOPLINETesla rallied to its highest share price in more than a month Monday, riding an upgrade from Morgan Stanley touting a non-vehicle revenue stream which could justify a more than $1 trillion market capitalization for the Elon Musk-led firm.A Tesla store in Shanghai last week.KEY FACTSTesla stock gained about 10% to nearly $274, closing at its highest level since July 19.That’s Tesla’s largest single-day surge since January.The spike comes after Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Jonas changed their rating for the electric vehicle stock from hold to buy, upping their price target from $250 to $400.Chief behind Morgan Stanley’s upgrade was its optimism for Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer, which Jonas estimated could add up to $500 billion in enterprise value for Tesla, which currently has a market capitalization of about $800 billion.Dojo, which is Tesla’s artificial intelligence technological network primarily designed to train its self-driving vehicles using video data, can help Tesla \"extend well beyond selling vehicles at a fixed price\" and become a power player in the lucrative software-as-a-service market, Jonas wrote.Jonas and company’s price target is easily the highest among any analysts tracked by FactSet, predicting Tesla to hit its highest split-adjusted level since January 2022.BIG NUMBER$79.9 billion. That’s how much market cap Tesla gained Monday, passing Berkshire Hathaway to become the seventh-most valuable company in the world.CRUCIAL QUOTE“Dojo may have the capability to be the core of the ‘Muskonomy,’” Jonas wrote, predicting the machine learning technology could become core to Tesla CEO Musk’s social media company X and aeronautics and communications firm SpaceX as well.KEY BACKGROUNDMusk told investors in July that Tesla will spend “well over” $1 billion on developing Dojo over the next year. “With Dojo, [Tesla] believes it will be able to have a supercomputer specifically designed for its image and video processing needs,” Deutsche Bank analysts led by Emmanuel Rosner wrote in a note to clients last week. Tesla shares are up more than 100% year-to-date, placing the stock among the top returners on the S&P 500 in 2023. Still, Tesla is down roughly 35% from its pandemic peak. Jonas had an apparent change of heart about Tesla’s AI prospects, warning investors in June that “autonomous driving and generative AI still remain, in our view, two very different technological disciplines.” AI-exposed stocks have captained the broader market’s gains this year, led by Nvidia’s more than 200% gain which has sent the graphics processing unit maker’s market cap to over $1 trillion.CHIEF CRITICDojo is the “primary place where Tesla stands to benefit from the recent advances in AI,” but generating any revenue from selling the service to outside firms is likely a “considerably long-dated opportunity,” Barclays analysts led by Dan Levy wrote in June.FORBES VALUATIONMusk, Tesla’s largest individual shareholder, is worth $261 billion, according to Forbes’ calculations. He’s by far the richest person in the world, worth more than $60 billion more than the next-richest man, LVMH chairman Bernard Arnault. Musk grew nearly $19 billion richer Monday alone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957729942,"gmtCreate":1677559182887,"gmtModify":1677559187451,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$TSLA$ TSLA 3-Giga&nbsp;Factories worldwide&nbsp; 1] TSLA Shanghai 2] TSLA Berlin 3] TSLA Texas with a fourth Giga Factory (in TSLA-Indonesia) coming on stage will captured all the EVs needed in the world. While AAPL is the King of SmartPhone, TSLA, in my humble opinion is the King of EVs.","listText":"$TSLA$ TSLA 3-Giga&nbsp;Factories worldwide&nbsp; 1] TSLA Shanghai 2] TSLA Berlin 3] TSLA Texas with a fourth Giga Factory (in TSLA-Indonesia) coming on stage will captured all the EVs needed in the world. While AAPL is the King of SmartPhone, TSLA, in my humble opinion is the King of EVs.","text":"$TSLA$ TSLA 3-Giga Factories worldwide 1] TSLA Shanghai 2] TSLA Berlin 3] TSLA Texas with a fourth Giga Factory (in TSLA-Indonesia) coming on stage will captured all the EVs needed in the world. While AAPL is the King of SmartPhone, TSLA, in my humble opinion is the King of EVs.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957729942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957720143,"gmtCreate":1677558781182,"gmtModify":1677558785777,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$TSLA$ Giga 3-Factories worldwide with a fourth Giga Factory (in Indonesia) coming on stage will captured all the EVs needed in the world.","listText":"$TSLA$ Giga 3-Factories worldwide with a fourth Giga Factory (in Indonesia) coming on stage will captured all the EVs needed in the world.","text":"$TSLA$ Giga 3-Factories worldwide with a fourth Giga Factory (in Indonesia) coming on stage will captured all the EVs needed in the world.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957720143","repostId":"9957702397","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9957702397,"gmtCreate":1677539294220,"gmtModify":1677548504940,"author":{"id":"3479274819487659","authorId":"3479274819487659","name":"The Finance Hydra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a242a9be28de8ea5e320d9cee36651ca","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  TESLA STOCK: The Next Bullish Leg.From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn3csO8xcPc\n \n","listText":"TESLA STOCK: The Next Bullish Leg.From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn3csO8xcPc","text":"TESLA STOCK: The Next Bullish Leg.From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn3csO8xcPc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957702397","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"cbf69b199bf54716ae262c075e884915","tweetId":"9957702397","title":"TESLA STOCK: The Next Bullish Leg.","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/16775392893825912567206d7ddb4cae6ddece926f787.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b7e64391eee51c380d51178da9fa5c","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/16775392893825912567206d7ddb4cae6ddece926f787.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924884548,"gmtCreate":1672222396184,"gmtModify":1676538655169,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$TSLA$, in reply to the writer: Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain. Don't try to catch a falling (stone)&nbsp;knife !!! Maybe, I will consider around $80/share. But, if RECESSION is imminent, then it could be lower. 🤣🤣🤣, my humble thought only. Pls decide your own investment criteria &amp; decision. TQ.","listText":"$TSLA$, in reply to the writer: Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain. Don't try to catch a falling (stone)&nbsp;knife !!! Maybe, I will consider around $80/share. But, if RECESSION is imminent, then it could be lower. 🤣🤣🤣, my humble thought only. Pls decide your own investment criteria &amp; decision. TQ.","text":"$TSLA$, in reply to the writer: Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain. Don't try to catch a falling (stone) knife !!! Maybe, I will consider around $80/share. But, if RECESSION is imminent, then it could be lower. 🤣🤣🤣, my humble thought only. Pls decide your own investment criteria & decision. TQ.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924884548","repostId":"1177985721","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177985721","pubTimestamp":1672242021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177985721?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-28 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177985721","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Tesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.</li><li>There is a lot of noise surrounding the world&#39;s leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) macro challenges.</li><li>These concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla&#39;s long-term potential - the stock looks undervalued.</li><li>I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.</li></ul><h3>Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD. For reference, this loss of value is worse than what investors needed to suffer with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (down about 65% YTD), and the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) has only lost about 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde4b5693a019a70b9ea28b00512c6a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Personally, I am confident to argue that the current sell-off provides investors with an attractive buying opportunity. To be fair, there is a lot of noise surrounding the world&#39;s leading electric car marker, including (1) Elon Musk selling shares, (2) Elon Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) various macroeconomic challenges. But these concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla&#39;s long-term potential - the stock clearly looks undervalued at FWD x26 EV/EBIT.</p><h3>Is It Elon Musk, Or Interest Rates?</h3><p>With some Tesla investors, the narrative is building that Tesla&#39;s sharp sell-off is strongly correlated to Elon Musk&#39;s takeover of Twitter. Ross Gerber for example, a notable Tesla bull, has implied that Elon Musk&#39;s behavior/ actions have erased $600 billion in market capitalization. But Musk quickly defended himself with the argument that the sell-off has been caused by higher interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7c1869f3ca5aa92bb963e223f8f0dbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Let us look these two positions with a little bit more context.</p><h3>Elon Musk Shifting Focus Away From Tesla</h3><p>A key argument why some investors believe that Tesla shares are falling is anchored on the simple observation that Tesla shares have lost approximately 40% since the Twitter deal closed on 27th October, while the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) is down by only 2%.</p><p>Some investors are clearly concerned that with the Twitter acquisition, Elon Musk will lose focus on his role as Tesla&#39;s CEO - now being Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter, The Boring Company and Neuralink.</p><p>Moreover, there has been some evidence that Elon Musk is shifting additional resources away from Tesla, not only his own time and energy. In late October, Musk invited about 50 Tesla engineers to the Twitter headquarters, asking their support in improving various algorithms on the social media platform. However, Musk argued that the commitment was non-material to Tesla&#39;s business operations: (emphasis added)</p><blockquote>This was an after hours — just if you’re interested in evaluating, helping me evaluate Twitter engineering ... that’d be nice. I think it lasted for a few days and it was over.</blockquote><p>In any case, Elon Musk has by now said that he will step down as Twitter&#39;s CEO, as soon as a suitable successor is found.</p><h3>Elon Musk Selling Shares</h3><p>Enormous blocks of share sales is another observation linked to Musk&#39;s acquisition of Twitter. Since the Twitter deal has been announced, Musk has sold nearly $23 billion worth of stock, despite his promise in April that he won&#39;t. Of course, selling $23 billion of equity in a bear market adds strong downward pressure to prices, and the action certainly pressures both investor confidence as well as sentiment.</p><p>Now once again Elon Musk has promised to not sell any shares - until at least 12 months. But will investors trust this promise?</p><blockquote>I won’t sell stock until, I don’t know, probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter</blockquote><h3>Interest Rates</h3><p>Meanwhile, Elon Musk argued that Tesla &#39;is executing better than ever&#39;, and the reason for the stock&#39;s sell-off is due to higher interest rates. While the interest rate argument might be true to some extent, looking at the basic DCF formula...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a63228358f96949ea5eab01cfd2f807\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>... investors should consider that since the Twitter deal closed, the Fed raised the funds rate by only 50 basis points. However you structure the DCF formula, it is hard to mathematically (and reasonably) prove a $600 billion loss of value due to only 0.5% higher interest rates.</p><p></p><p>Moreover, while Tesla&#39;s share price might indeed be more sensible to higher interest rates than the S&amp;P 500 (Tesla is a long duration growth asset), the performance discrepancy of Tesla and the S&amp;P 500 for the past few months is simply too excessive to be explained by interest rates.</p><h3>Macroeconomic Challenges</h3><p>The real reason why Tesla shares are slipping might simply be the uncertainty and fundamental pressure related to macroeconomic challenges. Elon Musk has already voiced concerns that the economy might fall into a recession in 2023 and Tesla car sales might suffer accordingly.</p><p>I think we are in a recession, and I think 2023 is going to be quite a serious recession ...</p><p>... It’s going to be, in my opinion, comparable to 2009. I don’t know if it’s going to be a little worse or a little better, but I think it’s, in my view, likely to be comparable. That means demand for any kind of optional, discretionary item, especially if it’s a big-ticket item, will be lower.</p><p>Notably, Tesla shares fell as much as 10% after the car maker announced price discounts of $7,500 to US consumers - an announcement that clearly hints on demand concerns. The thesis of demand concerns is supported by Tesla.com website traffic data from Semrush, which highlights that interest for cars could be falling off a cliff.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb5f6a810d444856a2b1e1c7233ba7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Valuation</h3><p>Valuing Tesla, I continue to believe Tesla could sell an estimated 10 million cars per year by 2030 and achieve an average sales price per car of $65,000. Furthermore, I continue to assume:</p><blockquote>a net-profit margin of 15.5%, which is only slightly above Tesla&#39;s 2022 net profit margin and in my opinion a very reasonable assumption if one consider increased economies of scale. (Note that I expect sales volume to almost 10x).</blockquote><blockquote>In addition, I argue that for every dollar that Tesla generates selling cars, the company will be able to sell 20 cents of software solutions and insurance (for reference, Apple generates about 30 cents worth of services for every dollar of hardware sales). For Tesla&#39;s software business, I argue 35% net-profit margin is reasonable -- in line with margins of leading tech/internet companies.</blockquote><p>However, I slightly increase my cost of equity estimate - to 11% as compared to 10% prior. The rationale behind this increase is that Tesla&#39;s value is anchored on the future, and betting on the future remains speculative. It is thus, in my opinion, only reasonable to demand an attractive reward for such a speculation.</p><p>Based on the above variables, I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfe9835e449e0a31e6e5df9e8b1e608\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risks and Headwinds</h3><p>As I see it, there has been no major risk update since I initiated coverage on Tesla stock, except for those discussed in previous sections. Thus, I would like to highlight what I have written before:</p><blockquote>Although Tesla has proven to be more resilient than what investors thought, both in relation to a challenging macro-economy and fading risk-sentiment, I believe the major risk for Tesla stock remains that a worsening macroeconomic backdrop will pressure investors risk-sentiment to such a degree that Tesla stock&#39;s growth multiples compress. Or in other words, investors should acknowledge that much of Tesla&#39;s share price performance remains driven by general sentiment towards stocks (Tesla&#39;s beta vs the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is about 1.7). Accordingly, investors should be prepared to stomach volatility, even though Tesla&#39;s fundamental outlook remains unchanged.</blockquote><blockquote>Personally, I do not believe that increasing competition in the race for electrification will influence the demand for Tesla -- like &#34;other&#34; smart phone makers do not influence the demand for iPhones. The increased competition could, however, exacerbate Tesla&#39;s supply challenges, as more competition chases for a limited supply of raw materials and key manufacturing components.</blockquote><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>I have never thought I would say this, but Tesla stock now appears to be trading in bargain territory. Personally, I would argue that the headwinds presented in the prior sections of this article could be classified as temporary, or noise. Long-term, Tesla remains the leading EV maker, with a strong brand and the world&#39;s most extensive network of EV charging stations.</p><p>Personally, I calculate that TSLA stock should be fairly valued at about $294.19/share (which indicates almost 150% upside). Buy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-28 23:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177985721","content_text":"SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) macro challenges.These concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla's long-term potential - the stock looks undervalued.I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.ThesisTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD. For reference, this loss of value is worse than what investors needed to suffer with Meta Platforms (down about 65% YTD), and the S&P 500 (SPY) has only lost about 20%.Personally, I am confident to argue that the current sell-off provides investors with an attractive buying opportunity. To be fair, there is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car marker, including (1) Elon Musk selling shares, (2) Elon Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) various macroeconomic challenges. But these concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla's long-term potential - the stock clearly looks undervalued at FWD x26 EV/EBIT.Is It Elon Musk, Or Interest Rates?With some Tesla investors, the narrative is building that Tesla's sharp sell-off is strongly correlated to Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter. Ross Gerber for example, a notable Tesla bull, has implied that Elon Musk's behavior/ actions have erased $600 billion in market capitalization. But Musk quickly defended himself with the argument that the sell-off has been caused by higher interest rates.Let us look these two positions with a little bit more context.Elon Musk Shifting Focus Away From TeslaA key argument why some investors believe that Tesla shares are falling is anchored on the simple observation that Tesla shares have lost approximately 40% since the Twitter deal closed on 27th October, while the S&P 500 (SPY) is down by only 2%.Some investors are clearly concerned that with the Twitter acquisition, Elon Musk will lose focus on his role as Tesla's CEO - now being Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter, The Boring Company and Neuralink.Moreover, there has been some evidence that Elon Musk is shifting additional resources away from Tesla, not only his own time and energy. In late October, Musk invited about 50 Tesla engineers to the Twitter headquarters, asking their support in improving various algorithms on the social media platform. However, Musk argued that the commitment was non-material to Tesla's business operations: (emphasis added)This was an after hours — just if you’re interested in evaluating, helping me evaluate Twitter engineering ... that’d be nice. I think it lasted for a few days and it was over.In any case, Elon Musk has by now said that he will step down as Twitter's CEO, as soon as a suitable successor is found.Elon Musk Selling SharesEnormous blocks of share sales is another observation linked to Musk's acquisition of Twitter. Since the Twitter deal has been announced, Musk has sold nearly $23 billion worth of stock, despite his promise in April that he won't. Of course, selling $23 billion of equity in a bear market adds strong downward pressure to prices, and the action certainly pressures both investor confidence as well as sentiment.Now once again Elon Musk has promised to not sell any shares - until at least 12 months. But will investors trust this promise?I won’t sell stock until, I don’t know, probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafterInterest RatesMeanwhile, Elon Musk argued that Tesla 'is executing better than ever', and the reason for the stock's sell-off is due to higher interest rates. While the interest rate argument might be true to some extent, looking at the basic DCF formula...... investors should consider that since the Twitter deal closed, the Fed raised the funds rate by only 50 basis points. However you structure the DCF formula, it is hard to mathematically (and reasonably) prove a $600 billion loss of value due to only 0.5% higher interest rates.Moreover, while Tesla's share price might indeed be more sensible to higher interest rates than the S&P 500 (Tesla is a long duration growth asset), the performance discrepancy of Tesla and the S&P 500 for the past few months is simply too excessive to be explained by interest rates.Macroeconomic ChallengesThe real reason why Tesla shares are slipping might simply be the uncertainty and fundamental pressure related to macroeconomic challenges. Elon Musk has already voiced concerns that the economy might fall into a recession in 2023 and Tesla car sales might suffer accordingly.I think we are in a recession, and I think 2023 is going to be quite a serious recession ...... It’s going to be, in my opinion, comparable to 2009. I don’t know if it’s going to be a little worse or a little better, but I think it’s, in my view, likely to be comparable. That means demand for any kind of optional, discretionary item, especially if it’s a big-ticket item, will be lower.Notably, Tesla shares fell as much as 10% after the car maker announced price discounts of $7,500 to US consumers - an announcement that clearly hints on demand concerns. The thesis of demand concerns is supported by Tesla.com website traffic data from Semrush, which highlights that interest for cars could be falling off a cliff.ValuationValuing Tesla, I continue to believe Tesla could sell an estimated 10 million cars per year by 2030 and achieve an average sales price per car of $65,000. Furthermore, I continue to assume:a net-profit margin of 15.5%, which is only slightly above Tesla's 2022 net profit margin and in my opinion a very reasonable assumption if one consider increased economies of scale. (Note that I expect sales volume to almost 10x).In addition, I argue that for every dollar that Tesla generates selling cars, the company will be able to sell 20 cents of software solutions and insurance (for reference, Apple generates about 30 cents worth of services for every dollar of hardware sales). For Tesla's software business, I argue 35% net-profit margin is reasonable -- in line with margins of leading tech/internet companies.However, I slightly increase my cost of equity estimate - to 11% as compared to 10% prior. The rationale behind this increase is that Tesla's value is anchored on the future, and betting on the future remains speculative. It is thus, in my opinion, only reasonable to demand an attractive reward for such a speculation.Based on the above variables, I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.Risks and HeadwindsAs I see it, there has been no major risk update since I initiated coverage on Tesla stock, except for those discussed in previous sections. Thus, I would like to highlight what I have written before:Although Tesla has proven to be more resilient than what investors thought, both in relation to a challenging macro-economy and fading risk-sentiment, I believe the major risk for Tesla stock remains that a worsening macroeconomic backdrop will pressure investors risk-sentiment to such a degree that Tesla stock's growth multiples compress. Or in other words, investors should acknowledge that much of Tesla's share price performance remains driven by general sentiment towards stocks (Tesla's beta vs the S&P 500 (SPX) is about 1.7). Accordingly, investors should be prepared to stomach volatility, even though Tesla's fundamental outlook remains unchanged.Personally, I do not believe that increasing competition in the race for electrification will influence the demand for Tesla -- like \"other\" smart phone makers do not influence the demand for iPhones. The increased competition could, however, exacerbate Tesla's supply challenges, as more competition chases for a limited supply of raw materials and key manufacturing components.Investor TakeawayI have never thought I would say this, but Tesla stock now appears to be trading in bargain territory. Personally, I would argue that the headwinds presented in the prior sections of this article could be classified as temporary, or noise. Long-term, Tesla remains the leading EV maker, with a strong brand and the world's most extensive network of EV charging stations.Personally, I calculate that TSLA stock should be fairly valued at about $294.19/share (which indicates almost 150% upside). Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923865861,"gmtCreate":1670827827453,"gmtModify":1676538441678,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Yes, Bullish!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Yes, Bullish!!!","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ Yes, Bullish!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923865861","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929874389,"gmtCreate":1670642020442,"gmtModify":1676538411091,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>$AAPL$ ramping up steadily...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>$AAPL$ ramping up steadily...","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ $AAPL$ ramping up steadily...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929874389","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920730504,"gmtCreate":1670547422608,"gmtModify":1676538390263,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$ASML$ versus $TSMC$. Batman versus Robin I briefly read the article \"If you love TSMC, you should love ASML. The Batman and Robin of chipmaking posted by author, upupahcai. Firstly, thanks to the author, who has initiate this discussion. My 2cents worth of note. If you have the world BEST technological know-how and/or equipment and cannot \"sell\" your product(s) to grow the company. Then, it is useless!!! 2-case study that would have captured the world by storm in the 1970s &amp;&nbsp;1980s. Sony versus Philips Video Casette Player/Recorder. Philips has the best Research &amp; Development Team &amp; Sony has the best Marketing Team. Who won the World most recognised Video-Cassette Player and huge revenue at that era? Toshiba versus Intel. Toshiba was the micro-chip master of that era. Due","listText":"$ASML$ versus $TSMC$. Batman versus Robin I briefly read the article \"If you love TSMC, you should love ASML. The Batman and Robin of chipmaking posted by author, upupahcai. Firstly, thanks to the author, who has initiate this discussion. My 2cents worth of note. If you have the world BEST technological know-how and/or equipment and cannot \"sell\" your product(s) to grow the company. Then, it is useless!!! 2-case study that would have captured the world by storm in the 1970s &amp;&nbsp;1980s. Sony versus Philips Video Casette Player/Recorder. Philips has the best Research &amp; Development Team &amp; Sony has the best Marketing Team. Who won the World most recognised Video-Cassette Player and huge revenue at that era? Toshiba versus Intel. Toshiba was the micro-chip master of that era. Due","text":"$ASML$ versus $TSMC$. Batman versus Robin I briefly read the article \"If you love TSMC, you should love ASML. The Batman and Robin of chipmaking posted by author, upupahcai. Firstly, thanks to the author, who has initiate this discussion. My 2cents worth of note. If you have the world BEST technological know-how and/or equipment and cannot \"sell\" your product(s) to grow the company. Then, it is useless!!! 2-case study that would have captured the world by storm in the 1970s & 1980s. Sony versus Philips Video Casette Player/Recorder. Philips has the best Research & Development Team & Sony has the best Marketing Team. Who won the World most recognised Video-Cassette Player and huge revenue at that era? Toshiba versus Intel. Toshiba was the micro-chip master of that era. Due","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":54,"commentSize":24,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920730504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000534","authorId":"9000000000000534","name":"JoanneSamson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"The value of equipment or machine can be slowly discovered, but the problem is that by that time their competitors may have already captured most of the market...","text":"The value of equipment or machine can be slowly discovered, but the problem is that by that time their competitors may have already captured most of the market...","html":"The value of equipment or machine can be slowly discovered, but the problem is that by that time their competitors may have already captured most of the market..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920414376,"gmtCreate":1670541484995,"gmtModify":1676538387733,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Of Course","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Of Course","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Of Course","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920414376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967557949,"gmtCreate":1670365331281,"gmtModify":1676538350941,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>YES","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>YES","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ YES","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967557949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964549763,"gmtCreate":1670194646353,"gmtModify":1676538315676,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>NFLX UP Up Up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>NFLX UP Up Up","text":"$Netflix(NFLX)$ NFLX UP Up Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964549763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964504321,"gmtCreate":1670170816164,"gmtModify":1676538313484,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Yes Yes Yes","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Yes Yes Yes","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ Yes Yes Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964504321","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964505544,"gmtCreate":1670170772688,"gmtModify":1676538313470,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>AAPL is Bullish","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>AAPL is Bullish","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ AAPL is Bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964505544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964056450,"gmtCreate":1670038465370,"gmtModify":1676538293862,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Merry X'mas &amp; A nice gift!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Merry X'mas &amp; A nice gift!!!","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ Merry X'mas & A nice gift!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964056450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965913282,"gmtCreate":1669870132947,"gmtModify":1676538260562,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>$AAPL$ onwards march....","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>$AAPL$ onwards march....","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ $AAPL$ onwards march....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965913282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962994366,"gmtCreate":1669689272355,"gmtModify":1676538223790,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>$AAPL$ is still one of myfavourities!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>$AAPL$ is still one of myfavourities!!!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ $AAPL$ is still one of myfavourities!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962994366","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962995731,"gmtCreate":1669689201123,"gmtModify":1676538223781,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>AAPL is still one of&nbsp;my favourites.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>AAPL is still one of&nbsp;my favourites.","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ AAPL is still one of my favourites.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962995731","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966206947,"gmtCreate":1669535350789,"gmtModify":1676538205763,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>YES","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>YES","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ YES","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966206947","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966006333,"gmtCreate":1669339622222,"gmtModify":1676538185123,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>BULLishness","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>BULLishness","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ BULLishness","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966006333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9917140479,"gmtCreate":1665457381192,"gmtModify":1676537609963,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$SGX$ $Singapore Stock Exchange&nbsp;Shares under CDP$ Why am I charge a S$2.00 custodian&nbsp;fee with 7%GST? I am only&nbsp;interested in using Tiger Brokers Platform to&nbsp;trade US$ Shares &amp; never used the SGX/CDP&nbsp;Platform to invest in SGP&nbsp;Shares. In view of the urgency for immediate&nbsp;Re-payment, otherwise Tiger Brokers will sell part of my US$ Shares to deduct the S$2.14 fee, I have transferred S$10 (minimum transfer S$amount needed per transaction) into my TB&nbsp;account. In just a simple analysis, if Tiger Brokers has 1 million+ members, then Tiger Brokers would&nbsp;have collected S$2.14M+? Kindly pay (re-imburse) back my S$2.14 into my account. Otherwise, pls explain why every Tiger Brokers member is being charged on this? Thank you.","listText":"$SGX$ $Singapore Stock Exchange&nbsp;Shares under CDP$ Why am I charge a S$2.00 custodian&nbsp;fee with 7%GST? I am only&nbsp;interested in using Tiger Brokers Platform to&nbsp;trade US$ Shares &amp; never used the SGX/CDP&nbsp;Platform to invest in SGP&nbsp;Shares. In view of the urgency for immediate&nbsp;Re-payment, otherwise Tiger Brokers will sell part of my US$ Shares to deduct the S$2.14 fee, I have transferred S$10 (minimum transfer S$amount needed per transaction) into my TB&nbsp;account. In just a simple analysis, if Tiger Brokers has 1 million+ members, then Tiger Brokers would&nbsp;have collected S$2.14M+? Kindly pay (re-imburse) back my S$2.14 into my account. Otherwise, pls explain why every Tiger Brokers member is being charged on this? Thank you.","text":"$SGX$ $Singapore Stock Exchange Shares under CDP$ Why am I charge a S$2.00 custodian fee with 7%GST? I am only interested in using Tiger Brokers Platform to trade US$ Shares & never used the SGX/CDP Platform to invest in SGP Shares. In view of the urgency for immediate Re-payment, otherwise Tiger Brokers will sell part of my US$ Shares to deduct the S$2.14 fee, I have transferred S$10 (minimum transfer S$amount needed per transaction) into my TB account. In just a simple analysis, if Tiger Brokers has 1 million+ members, then Tiger Brokers would have collected S$2.14M+? Kindly pay (re-imburse) back my S$2.14 into my account. Otherwise, pls explain why every Tiger Brokers member is being charged on this? Thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":54,"commentSize":56,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917140479","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4093688471950400","authorId":"4093688471950400","name":"SGboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53fad8dabfd576c90fe8050483aa504f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"There are Term and condition in Tiger broker, maybe you have missed that part. Suggest you check with Tiger broker service/support, belive they can provide you with satisfactory answer.","text":"There are Term and condition in Tiger broker, maybe you have missed that part. Suggest you check with Tiger broker service/support, belive they can provide you with satisfactory answer.","html":"There are Term and condition in Tiger broker, maybe you have missed that part. Suggest you check with Tiger broker service/support, belive they can provide you with satisfactory answer."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999805191,"gmtCreate":1660516412856,"gmtModify":1676533481266,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$BABA$&nbsp;Alibaba Stock: Follow Masayoshi Son, Not Charlie Munger.....Reposted my opinion &amp; comment.POST dtd 6/Aug, 2022 into Tiger Community by Et1502:$BABA$.... indeed true. With 3 issues still unclear, not too sure BABA is still a BUY, although manyanalysts have said on the contrary.1] Delisting from USA Stock Exchange on ADR due to Public Accounting Act. Likely, listing in HK Stock Exchange, but the market &amp; valuation is different.2] Blacklist on Counterfeit products by US Regulators. Still an unkown issues to be resolved.3] Under Chinese Regulators investigation on BABA IPO suspected participation by government officials. I read the news simetimes ago, but not too sure this issue has been resolved.Anyone, pls comment &amp; correct me, If I am wrong.These pointers are my opin","listText":"$BABA$&nbsp;Alibaba Stock: Follow Masayoshi Son, Not Charlie Munger.....Reposted my opinion &amp; comment.POST dtd 6/Aug, 2022 into Tiger Community by Et1502:$BABA$.... indeed true. With 3 issues still unclear, not too sure BABA is still a BUY, although manyanalysts have said on the contrary.1] Delisting from USA Stock Exchange on ADR due to Public Accounting Act. Likely, listing in HK Stock Exchange, but the market &amp; valuation is different.2] Blacklist on Counterfeit products by US Regulators. Still an unkown issues to be resolved.3] Under Chinese Regulators investigation on BABA IPO suspected participation by government officials. I read the news simetimes ago, but not too sure this issue has been resolved.Anyone, pls comment &amp; correct me, If I am wrong.These pointers are my opin","text":"$BABA$ Alibaba Stock: Follow Masayoshi Son, Not Charlie Munger.....Reposted my opinion & comment.POST dtd 6/Aug, 2022 into Tiger Community by Et1502:$BABA$.... indeed true. With 3 issues still unclear, not too sure BABA is still a BUY, although manyanalysts have said on the contrary.1] Delisting from USA Stock Exchange on ADR due to Public Accounting Act. Likely, listing in HK Stock Exchange, but the market & valuation is different.2] Blacklist on Counterfeit products by US Regulators. Still an unkown issues to be resolved.3] Under Chinese Regulators investigation on BABA IPO suspected participation by government officials. I read the news simetimes ago, but not too sure this issue has been resolved.Anyone, pls comment & correct me, If I am wrong.These pointers are my opin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":60,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999805191","repostId":"1110057750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110057750","pubTimestamp":1660446286,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110057750?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-14 11:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Follow Masayoshi Son, Not Charlie Munger","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110057750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryI explain why investors should not repeat the mistakes of Charlie Munger - it is better to fo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>I explain why investors should not repeat the mistakes of Charlie Munger - it is better to follow Softbank&#39;s CEO, Masayoshi Son.</li><li>Mr. Son has decided to reduce his stake in Alibaba from 23.7% to 14.6% - in my opinion, this may create headwinds for BABA in the medium term.</li><li>Investors shouldn&#39;t be fooled by Alibaba&#39;s &#34;low multiples&#34; but to take a broader look at this company and consider all the risks involved.</li><li>Based on a fairly optimistic DCF model, there is a downside of 14% for Alibaba stock.</li><li>The desire to follow the example of Masayoshi Son rather than Charlie Munger seems more logical to me.</li></ul><p>Introduction &amp; Thesis</p><p>On March 24, 2020, Bloomberg wrote about Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son&#39;s plans to sell $14 billion worth of Alibaba shares (NYSE:BABA) to shore up the bank&#39;s businesses, which had been battered by the coronavirus pandemic. This was not the first news of attempts by Masayoshi Son, who was one of the first investors in BABA in 2000, to get rid of the company&#39;s shares - according to a press release from the bank, derivative tradeshave been made since 2016. However, $14 billion in 2020 was quite a large amount, and in the medium term, BABA shares began to correct more than the main benchmarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96b0ceefb3d3bed3af27a07fdd9d3a81\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Now we see that Softbank faced the problem of deflating the bubble in high-growth companies after the Corona crisis, and will now further reduce its stake in Alibaba stock (from the current 23.7% to 14.6% after settling $34 billion in prepaid forward contracts).</p><p>As from the very beginning of my coverage of Alibaba stock here on Seeking Alpha, I still believe that investors should not follow on the heels of Charlie Munger - there are too many risks in buying this stock, both geopolitical (U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan) and economic (China&#39;s GDP growth slowdown and housing crisis). The pressure on BABA&#39;s quotes is likely to continue due to these two factors, and Softbank&#39;s sale of forward contracts for such a large amount may add to the headwinds for shareholders.</p><p>Masayoshi Son vs. Charlie Munger</p><p>One of the most frequently cited arguments for buying BABA after its phenomenal &gt;50% off high dip is the fact that one of the most famous Western investors, Charlie Munger, bought and held the stock. According to the 13-F filings by his Daily Journal Corp, the 98-year-old investor began buying BABA in the first quarter of 2021 and gradually increased his position throughout 2021 (from 165,320 shares in the first quarter to 602,060 shares in the fourth quarter) until he decided to sell half of the position in the first quarter of 2022 and has not touched BABA since (which is interpreted by some as a bullish sign).</p><p>In my subjective opinion, a 50% reduction of BABA&#39;s position in Daily Journal Corp. in the first quarter is already a sign of Mr. Munger&#39;s capitulation, as this act is not typical of his position in BofA (BAC) or Wells Fargo (WFC) - compare the position size as of the last reporting date [link above] with the portfolio at the end of 2013 to see for yourself.</p><p>Concerning the unchanged amount of BABA shares in the last reporting quarter, it should be noted that other positions have also remained unchanged - Munger has simply decided not to buy or sell anything. The great investor of the 20th century will likely continue to get rid of his position in Alibaba stock, in my view, if the risks in China escalate. Remember what he said about Russian stocks many years ago (emphasis added):</p><blockquote>When asked about Russia, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), harrumphed: &#34;<i>We don’t invest in kleptocracies.</i>&#34; One investor famously declared after the market’s meltdown in 1998: &#34;I’d rather eat nuclear waste than invest in Russia.&#34;</blockquote><blockquote>[Source]</blockquote><p>If you have been buying BABA solely on Munger&#39;s moves, then I must warn you: if you look at the performance of his Daily Journal Corp [based on Fintel data from 13-Fs], he has not been able to boast of excessive returns for many years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f172b8f0ac1e4673cf5741f21754470d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Important note:</b>the reported value (RV) above should not be used as a substitute for Assets Under Management (AUM), as it does not include cash held in accounts.However, RV depletion is also an important criterion to consider.</p><p>I think the risks of investing in the Chinese market are becoming more evident every year. While the country&#39;s GDP grew 6-10% annually from the early 1990s until the pandemic began, these risks were ignored by many Western investors. We saw it even more positively when the Chinese GDP began to recover sharply after the 2020 lockdowns. Now, however, the prospects for similar growth rates are vague, as the real estate market, which has largely allowed China to report huge GDP growth rates in the past, is highly leveraged and in crisis, and the country&#39;s overall population is likely to start shrinking due to the low birth rate (which largely precludes the growth of the economy extensively).</p><blockquote>As recently as 2019 the China Academy of Social Sciences expected the population to peak in 2029, at 1.44 billion. The 2019 United Nations Population Prospects report expected the peak later still, in 2031-32, at 1.46 billion.</blockquote><blockquote>The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences team predicts an annual average decline of 1.1% after 2021, pushing China&#39;s population down to 587 million in 2100, less than half of what it is today.</blockquote><blockquote>[Source]</blockquote><p>The accumulated problems of the Chinese regime drive Xi to continue trying to expand his sole power, because at first glance it seems more reliable to keep everything in one hand. Given the level of corruption in the country, we are dealing with a kleptocratic state - the reason why Munger avoided investing in Russia after 1998.</p><p>Aside from Masayoshi Son being forced to sell his shares in Alibaba, I think Softbank would have dumped its high stake in the company anyway, feeling the pressure from the Communist Party.</p><p>Exactly one year ago, Nikkei Asia published an article citing Son as to how he sees the pressure on China&#39;s tech sector.</p><blockquote>&#34;I strongly believe that China&#39;s AI technology and business model will continue to innovate,&#34; Son said in a news conference. &#34;However, in investment activities, various new regulations have begun, so I want to wait and see what kind of regulations are implemented and what kind of impact they have on the stock market.&#34;</blockquote><blockquote>[Source]</blockquote><p>A year later, he waited, looked around, and decided to reduce his stake in Alibaba from 23.7% to 14.6%.</p><p>This is a smart move that is not about flooding the market with shares all at once - under the terms of the forward contract, Mr. Son will have the right to buy back his BABA shares. However, it is unlikely that he will do so - in any case, we have not seen this happen since 2016. So, in the coming months, there will be a greater supply of Alibaba shares on the market, which will put additional pressure on prices against the backdrop of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks specific to China.</p><p>The company&#39;s financial profile doesn&#39;t help</p><p>The low multiples that made BABA&#39;s stock seem undervalued compared to U.S. tech giants have gotten even lower over the past six months - in line with the stock price:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a100fa0a41ade258d26db19f27c2313b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>However, it turned out that this underestimation was evidence of the value trap - the slowdown in economic growth and regulatory problems were making themselves felt. Margins continued their downward trend, and the ratio of EBITDA to sales did not return to the level seen before COVID.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceb0944814657934f262b18db7db4ec2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Sales and earnings growth did not improve as investors expected, so the denominators for most valuation metrics became smaller than the numerators - Seeking Alpha&#39;s factor grade system changed the valuation metric in a negative direction for the company:</p><p>Readers will rightly wonder why the &#34;Profitability&#34; criterion is still rated &#34;A+&#34; against a backdrop of declining business margins and less than stellar ROE / ROA / ROIC indicators. The answer to this question lies in the elements of this criterion - the company&#39;s cash flow from operations (CFO) is the only reason for this superiority over the rest of the sector:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0ad942e9b19cfbee3de08d1b1b2009\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d0b575ede1cd3f09a1e124dd313777\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Indeed, in the Internet and direct marketing retail industry, of which Alibaba is a part, only 58.62% of companies have a positive CFO. Such companies have a CFO to TTM ratio of 7% (median), while BABA has a similar ratio of 17%, making it a true cash cow. However, for a cash cow, the margin of safety of BABA is highly controversial in terms of DCF modeling:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33ef5864117b63096db2166e004e764\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Even with a fairly optimistic discount rate (10% is low given the risks for the Chinese tech giant) and a very generous assumption of a 15% growth rate over the next 10 years (which is already not the case), there is a downside of 14%, even when adding the tangible book value to the final share price.</p><p>Of course, I could be wrong and the listing of BABA&#39;s shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will create additional demand from investors in mainland China, but it&#39;s not entirely clear what U.S. investors with their ADRs will actually get out of it.</p><p>From this, I conclude that investors shouldn&#39;t be fooled by Alibaba&#39;s &#34;low multiples&#34; but to take a broader look at this company and consider all the risks involved. Then, the desire to follow the example of Masayoshi Son rather than Charlie Munger seems more logical to me.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Follow Masayoshi Son, Not Charlie Munger</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Follow Masayoshi Son, Not Charlie Munger\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-14 11:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533003-alibaba-stock-follow-masayoshi-son-not-charlie-munger?source=apple_sign_in&source=apple_sign_in><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI explain why investors should not repeat the mistakes of Charlie Munger - it is better to follow Softbank's CEO, Masayoshi Son.Mr. Son has decided to reduce his stake in Alibaba from 23.7% to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533003-alibaba-stock-follow-masayoshi-son-not-charlie-munger?source=apple_sign_in&source=apple_sign_in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533003-alibaba-stock-follow-masayoshi-son-not-charlie-munger?source=apple_sign_in&source=apple_sign_in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1110057750","content_text":"SummaryI explain why investors should not repeat the mistakes of Charlie Munger - it is better to follow Softbank's CEO, Masayoshi Son.Mr. Son has decided to reduce his stake in Alibaba from 23.7% to 14.6% - in my opinion, this may create headwinds for BABA in the medium term.Investors shouldn't be fooled by Alibaba's \"low multiples\" but to take a broader look at this company and consider all the risks involved.Based on a fairly optimistic DCF model, there is a downside of 14% for Alibaba stock.The desire to follow the example of Masayoshi Son rather than Charlie Munger seems more logical to me.Introduction & ThesisOn March 24, 2020, Bloomberg wrote about Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son's plans to sell $14 billion worth of Alibaba shares (NYSE:BABA) to shore up the bank's businesses, which had been battered by the coronavirus pandemic. This was not the first news of attempts by Masayoshi Son, who was one of the first investors in BABA in 2000, to get rid of the company's shares - according to a press release from the bank, derivative tradeshave been made since 2016. However, $14 billion in 2020 was quite a large amount, and in the medium term, BABA shares began to correct more than the main benchmarks:Now we see that Softbank faced the problem of deflating the bubble in high-growth companies after the Corona crisis, and will now further reduce its stake in Alibaba stock (from the current 23.7% to 14.6% after settling $34 billion in prepaid forward contracts).As from the very beginning of my coverage of Alibaba stock here on Seeking Alpha, I still believe that investors should not follow on the heels of Charlie Munger - there are too many risks in buying this stock, both geopolitical (U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan) and economic (China's GDP growth slowdown and housing crisis). The pressure on BABA's quotes is likely to continue due to these two factors, and Softbank's sale of forward contracts for such a large amount may add to the headwinds for shareholders.Masayoshi Son vs. Charlie MungerOne of the most frequently cited arguments for buying BABA after its phenomenal >50% off high dip is the fact that one of the most famous Western investors, Charlie Munger, bought and held the stock. According to the 13-F filings by his Daily Journal Corp, the 98-year-old investor began buying BABA in the first quarter of 2021 and gradually increased his position throughout 2021 (from 165,320 shares in the first quarter to 602,060 shares in the fourth quarter) until he decided to sell half of the position in the first quarter of 2022 and has not touched BABA since (which is interpreted by some as a bullish sign).In my subjective opinion, a 50% reduction of BABA's position in Daily Journal Corp. in the first quarter is already a sign of Mr. Munger's capitulation, as this act is not typical of his position in BofA (BAC) or Wells Fargo (WFC) - compare the position size as of the last reporting date [link above] with the portfolio at the end of 2013 to see for yourself.Concerning the unchanged amount of BABA shares in the last reporting quarter, it should be noted that other positions have also remained unchanged - Munger has simply decided not to buy or sell anything. The great investor of the 20th century will likely continue to get rid of his position in Alibaba stock, in my view, if the risks in China escalate. Remember what he said about Russian stocks many years ago (emphasis added):When asked about Russia, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), harrumphed: \"We don’t invest in kleptocracies.\" One investor famously declared after the market’s meltdown in 1998: \"I’d rather eat nuclear waste than invest in Russia.\"[Source]If you have been buying BABA solely on Munger's moves, then I must warn you: if you look at the performance of his Daily Journal Corp [based on Fintel data from 13-Fs], he has not been able to boast of excessive returns for many years:Important note:the reported value (RV) above should not be used as a substitute for Assets Under Management (AUM), as it does not include cash held in accounts.However, RV depletion is also an important criterion to consider.I think the risks of investing in the Chinese market are becoming more evident every year. While the country's GDP grew 6-10% annually from the early 1990s until the pandemic began, these risks were ignored by many Western investors. We saw it even more positively when the Chinese GDP began to recover sharply after the 2020 lockdowns. Now, however, the prospects for similar growth rates are vague, as the real estate market, which has largely allowed China to report huge GDP growth rates in the past, is highly leveraged and in crisis, and the country's overall population is likely to start shrinking due to the low birth rate (which largely precludes the growth of the economy extensively).As recently as 2019 the China Academy of Social Sciences expected the population to peak in 2029, at 1.44 billion. The 2019 United Nations Population Prospects report expected the peak later still, in 2031-32, at 1.46 billion.The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences team predicts an annual average decline of 1.1% after 2021, pushing China's population down to 587 million in 2100, less than half of what it is today.[Source]The accumulated problems of the Chinese regime drive Xi to continue trying to expand his sole power, because at first glance it seems more reliable to keep everything in one hand. Given the level of corruption in the country, we are dealing with a kleptocratic state - the reason why Munger avoided investing in Russia after 1998.Aside from Masayoshi Son being forced to sell his shares in Alibaba, I think Softbank would have dumped its high stake in the company anyway, feeling the pressure from the Communist Party.Exactly one year ago, Nikkei Asia published an article citing Son as to how he sees the pressure on China's tech sector.\"I strongly believe that China's AI technology and business model will continue to innovate,\" Son said in a news conference. \"However, in investment activities, various new regulations have begun, so I want to wait and see what kind of regulations are implemented and what kind of impact they have on the stock market.\"[Source]A year later, he waited, looked around, and decided to reduce his stake in Alibaba from 23.7% to 14.6%.This is a smart move that is not about flooding the market with shares all at once - under the terms of the forward contract, Mr. Son will have the right to buy back his BABA shares. However, it is unlikely that he will do so - in any case, we have not seen this happen since 2016. So, in the coming months, there will be a greater supply of Alibaba shares on the market, which will put additional pressure on prices against the backdrop of geopolitical and macroeconomic risks specific to China.The company's financial profile doesn't helpThe low multiples that made BABA's stock seem undervalued compared to U.S. tech giants have gotten even lower over the past six months - in line with the stock price:However, it turned out that this underestimation was evidence of the value trap - the slowdown in economic growth and regulatory problems were making themselves felt. Margins continued their downward trend, and the ratio of EBITDA to sales did not return to the level seen before COVID.Sales and earnings growth did not improve as investors expected, so the denominators for most valuation metrics became smaller than the numerators - Seeking Alpha's factor grade system changed the valuation metric in a negative direction for the company:Readers will rightly wonder why the \"Profitability\" criterion is still rated \"A+\" against a backdrop of declining business margins and less than stellar ROE / ROA / ROIC indicators. The answer to this question lies in the elements of this criterion - the company's cash flow from operations (CFO) is the only reason for this superiority over the rest of the sector:Indeed, in the Internet and direct marketing retail industry, of which Alibaba is a part, only 58.62% of companies have a positive CFO. Such companies have a CFO to TTM ratio of 7% (median), while BABA has a similar ratio of 17%, making it a true cash cow. However, for a cash cow, the margin of safety of BABA is highly controversial in terms of DCF modeling:Even with a fairly optimistic discount rate (10% is low given the risks for the Chinese tech giant) and a very generous assumption of a 15% growth rate over the next 10 years (which is already not the case), there is a downside of 14%, even when adding the tangible book value to the final share price.Of course, I could be wrong and the listing of BABA's shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will create additional demand from investors in mainland China, but it's not entirely clear what U.S. investors with their ADRs will actually get out of it.From this, I conclude that investors shouldn't be fooled by Alibaba's \"low multiples\" but to take a broader look at this company and consider all the risks involved. Then, the desire to follow the example of Masayoshi Son rather than Charlie Munger seems more logical to me.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920730504,"gmtCreate":1670547422608,"gmtModify":1676538390263,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$ASML$ versus $TSMC$. Batman versus Robin I briefly read the article \"If you love TSMC, you should love ASML. The Batman and Robin of chipmaking posted by author, upupahcai. Firstly, thanks to the author, who has initiate this discussion. My 2cents worth of note. If you have the world BEST technological know-how and/or equipment and cannot \"sell\" your product(s) to grow the company. Then, it is useless!!! 2-case study that would have captured the world by storm in the 1970s &amp;&nbsp;1980s. Sony versus Philips Video Casette Player/Recorder. Philips has the best Research &amp; Development Team &amp; Sony has the best Marketing Team. Who won the World most recognised Video-Cassette Player and huge revenue at that era? Toshiba versus Intel. Toshiba was the micro-chip master of that era. Due","listText":"$ASML$ versus $TSMC$. Batman versus Robin I briefly read the article \"If you love TSMC, you should love ASML. The Batman and Robin of chipmaking posted by author, upupahcai. Firstly, thanks to the author, who has initiate this discussion. My 2cents worth of note. If you have the world BEST technological know-how and/or equipment and cannot \"sell\" your product(s) to grow the company. Then, it is useless!!! 2-case study that would have captured the world by storm in the 1970s &amp;&nbsp;1980s. Sony versus Philips Video Casette Player/Recorder. Philips has the best Research &amp; Development Team &amp; Sony has the best Marketing Team. Who won the World most recognised Video-Cassette Player and huge revenue at that era? Toshiba versus Intel. Toshiba was the micro-chip master of that era. Due","text":"$ASML$ versus $TSMC$. Batman versus Robin I briefly read the article \"If you love TSMC, you should love ASML. The Batman and Robin of chipmaking posted by author, upupahcai. Firstly, thanks to the author, who has initiate this discussion. My 2cents worth of note. If you have the world BEST technological know-how and/or equipment and cannot \"sell\" your product(s) to grow the company. Then, it is useless!!! 2-case study that would have captured the world by storm in the 1970s & 1980s. Sony versus Philips Video Casette Player/Recorder. Philips has the best Research & Development Team & Sony has the best Marketing Team. Who won the World most recognised Video-Cassette Player and huge revenue at that era? Toshiba versus Intel. Toshiba was the micro-chip master of that era. Due","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":54,"commentSize":24,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920730504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000534","authorId":"9000000000000534","name":"JoanneSamson","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"The value of equipment or machine can be slowly discovered, but the problem is that by that time their competitors may have already captured most of the market...","text":"The value of equipment or machine can be slowly discovered, but the problem is that by that time their competitors may have already captured most of the market...","html":"The value of equipment or machine can be slowly discovered, but the problem is that by that time their competitors may have already captured most of the market..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908012667,"gmtCreate":1659303979759,"gmtModify":1676536281560,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$BABA$, as expected. More China companies&nbsp;listed in US ADR will be delisted from the&nbsp;US Stock Exchanges.But,&nbsp;Chinese companies&nbsp;have taken steps to re-list them in other Stock Exchanges. Share price may take a \"hit\" initially.My own opinion only. Not an advice to anyone to invest,&nbsp;buy or sell shares.","listText":"$BABA$, as expected. More China companies&nbsp;listed in US ADR will be delisted from the&nbsp;US Stock Exchanges.But,&nbsp;Chinese companies&nbsp;have taken steps to re-list them in other Stock Exchanges. Share price may take a \"hit\" initially.My own opinion only. Not an advice to anyone to invest,&nbsp;buy or sell shares.","text":"$BABA$, as expected. More China companies listed in US ADR will be delisted from the US Stock Exchanges.But, Chinese companies have taken steps to re-list them in other Stock Exchanges. Share price may take a \"hit\" initially.My own opinion only. Not an advice to anyone to invest, buy or sell shares.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":38,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908012667","repostId":"1165172007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981952391,"gmtCreate":1666392833014,"gmtModify":1676537749814,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$TSLA$ TQ Elon for the insight to own/invest in TSLA Shares. Once in a Life time. 👍 Quote: When people are fearful, WE&nbsp;must be greedy!!! My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or&nbsp;companies, Buy, Sell or Hold. You need to make your own analysis &amp; judgement on the stock you wish to invest.","listText":"$TSLA$ TQ Elon for the insight to own/invest in TSLA Shares. Once in a Life time. 👍 Quote: When people are fearful, WE&nbsp;must be greedy!!! My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or&nbsp;companies, Buy, Sell or Hold. You need to make your own analysis &amp; judgement on the stock you wish to invest.","text":"$TSLA$ TQ Elon for the insight to own/invest in TSLA Shares. Once in a Life time. 👍 Quote: When people are fearful, WE must be greedy!!! My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or companies, Buy, Sell or Hold. You need to make your own analysis & judgement on the stock you wish to invest.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":35,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981952391","repostId":"2277426958","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983730049,"gmtCreate":1666316401382,"gmtModify":1676537739589,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$$$UK PM Resignation$$$ Breaking News. Just in.....&nbsp; Came in as no surprise as she took the Crown &amp; 1st Prize to be the shortest PM of UK. I think, she also beat the World Record at max 45days. Who's Next on the Throne. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 As of October 2021, Tsutomu Hata was the shortest-serving Japanese prime minister inaugurated since 1989, spending a total of only 64 days in the office. Following a vote of non-confidence against the cabinet, the whole cabinet resigned with Hata at the end of June 1994. (Note: This Post is NOT a FORUM for Discussion.It is just for infor &amp; record only). TQ","listText":"$$$UK PM Resignation$$$ Breaking News. Just in.....&nbsp; Came in as no surprise as she took the Crown &amp; 1st Prize to be the shortest PM of UK. I think, she also beat the World Record at max 45days. Who's Next on the Throne. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 As of October 2021, Tsutomu Hata was the shortest-serving Japanese prime minister inaugurated since 1989, spending a total of only 64 days in the office. Following a vote of non-confidence against the cabinet, the whole cabinet resigned with Hata at the end of June 1994. (Note: This Post is NOT a FORUM for Discussion.It is just for infor &amp; record only). TQ","text":"$$$UK PM Resignation$$$ Breaking News. Just in..... Came in as no surprise as she took the Crown & 1st Prize to be the shortest PM of UK. I think, she also beat the World Record at max 45days. Who's Next on the Throne. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 As of October 2021, Tsutomu Hata was the shortest-serving Japanese prime minister inaugurated since 1989, spending a total of only 64 days in the office. Following a vote of non-confidence against the cabinet, the whole cabinet resigned with Hata at the end of June 1994. (Note: This Post is NOT a FORUM for Discussion.It is just for infor & record only). TQ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":42,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983730049","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939877912,"gmtCreate":1662089183236,"gmtModify":1676536995516,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$China Securities Regulator Says Will Implement Sino-U.S. Audit Deal$Good News!!!&nbsp;Although both sides have agreed for US Regulators/Auditors&nbsp;to implement the audit on Chinese listed companies in US Stock Exchanges, there maybe more hurdles to cross,&nbsp;a few pointers worth pondering... due to the different regulatory rules of each country. (Note: in layman term, not trying to pour cold water, but still worth the thought on Secondary Listing, as a Back-Up, incase back-fired)in my opinion, the US Regulators/Auditors are not&nbsp;just looking at financial irregularities,&nbsp;discrepancies, any fraud or \"cooking\" of numbers.Probably, they are also&nbsp;looking for:a] any Government officials involvement.b] any Board Members in the company with relationship to the&nbsp;Government.c","listText":"$China Securities Regulator Says Will Implement Sino-U.S. Audit Deal$Good News!!!&nbsp;Although both sides have agreed for US Regulators/Auditors&nbsp;to implement the audit on Chinese listed companies in US Stock Exchanges, there maybe more hurdles to cross,&nbsp;a few pointers worth pondering... due to the different regulatory rules of each country. (Note: in layman term, not trying to pour cold water, but still worth the thought on Secondary Listing, as a Back-Up, incase back-fired)in my opinion, the US Regulators/Auditors are not&nbsp;just looking at financial irregularities,&nbsp;discrepancies, any fraud or \"cooking\" of numbers.Probably, they are also&nbsp;looking for:a] any Government officials involvement.b] any Board Members in the company with relationship to the&nbsp;Government.c","text":"$China Securities Regulator Says Will Implement Sino-U.S. Audit Deal$Good News!!! Although both sides have agreed for US Regulators/Auditors to implement the audit on Chinese listed companies in US Stock Exchanges, there maybe more hurdles to cross, a few pointers worth pondering... due to the different regulatory rules of each country. (Note: in layman term, not trying to pour cold water, but still worth the thought on Secondary Listing, as a Back-Up, incase back-fired)in my opinion, the US Regulators/Auditors are not just looking at financial irregularities, discrepancies, any fraud or \"cooking\" of numbers.Probably, they are also looking for:a] any Government officials involvement.b] any Board Members in the company with relationship to the Government.c","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939877912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910225417,"gmtCreate":1663634124139,"gmtModify":1676537304760,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"#Interest Rate Hike#The FED&nbsp;Reserve will hold their 2022&nbsp;Sept&nbsp;FOMC meeting on Sept 20 Tues&nbsp;-&nbsp;21 Wed, and the result&nbsp;of the hike will be announced on&nbsp;Wed.Market are betting on:&nbsp;a]&nbsp;80% probability of 75bps (or 0.75%) rate hike.b] 20% probability of 100bps (or 1.0%) rate hike.c] What if, the FED Reserve decided to adopt&nbsp;the Paul Volcker's famous rate hike and goes for 125bps (or 1.25%). The market is still very resilence as if now &amp; in order to ensure ordinary people can survive the essential foods, oil &amp; proper living standard. Wouldn't this be good for the 90% of people who will vite the mid-term election. As opposed to the 10% of the rich people who still are rich enough, although the market might \"temporary\"go into a recession.My h","listText":"#Interest Rate Hike#The FED&nbsp;Reserve will hold their 2022&nbsp;Sept&nbsp;FOMC meeting on Sept 20 Tues&nbsp;-&nbsp;21 Wed, and the result&nbsp;of the hike will be announced on&nbsp;Wed.Market are betting on:&nbsp;a]&nbsp;80% probability of 75bps (or 0.75%) rate hike.b] 20% probability of 100bps (or 1.0%) rate hike.c] What if, the FED Reserve decided to adopt&nbsp;the Paul Volcker's famous rate hike and goes for 125bps (or 1.25%). The market is still very resilence as if now &amp; in order to ensure ordinary people can survive the essential foods, oil &amp; proper living standard. Wouldn't this be good for the 90% of people who will vite the mid-term election. As opposed to the 10% of the rich people who still are rich enough, although the market might \"temporary\"go into a recession.My h","text":"#Interest Rate Hike#The FED Reserve will hold their 2022 Sept FOMC meeting on Sept 20 Tues - 21 Wed, and the result of the hike will be announced on Wed.Market are betting on: a] 80% probability of 75bps (or 0.75%) rate hike.b] 20% probability of 100bps (or 1.0%) rate hike.c] What if, the FED Reserve decided to adopt the Paul Volcker's famous rate hike and goes for 125bps (or 1.25%). The market is still very resilence as if now & in order to ensure ordinary people can survive the essential foods, oil & proper living standard. Wouldn't this be good for the 90% of people who will vite the mid-term election. As opposed to the 10% of the rich people who still are rich enough, although the market might \"temporary\"go into a recession.My h","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910225417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915855097,"gmtCreate":1665014679319,"gmtModify":1676537543477,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks to the author on \"QQQ And SPY: Major&nbsp;Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now\". Great Article &amp; Very thorough Analysis. Will awaitto see the \"bottom-test\" in 4-5weeks' times from this&nbsp;week, Oct/3 Mon. i am not an expert in Technical Analysis, but I do feel that the coming Nov 2022&nbsp;US&nbsp;mid-term Presidential Election will have one of the major factors to consider. This coincides with your timeline totest the bottom-of the BOTTOM. If the current JB Admin wins the election for the next 4-years term plus the majority of the Congress led by Democratic Party, I believed the market will rally. What if: i] Current JB Admin wins&nbsp;the Presidential Election &amp; also losses&nbsp;the majority of&nbsp;Congress led by Demo. ii] Current JB Admin losses the Presidential Elect","listText":"Thanks to the author on \"QQQ And SPY: Major&nbsp;Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now\". Great Article &amp; Very thorough Analysis. Will awaitto see the \"bottom-test\" in 4-5weeks' times from this&nbsp;week, Oct/3 Mon. i am not an expert in Technical Analysis, but I do feel that the coming Nov 2022&nbsp;US&nbsp;mid-term Presidential Election will have one of the major factors to consider. This coincides with your timeline totest the bottom-of the BOTTOM. If the current JB Admin wins the election for the next 4-years term plus the majority of the Congress led by Democratic Party, I believed the market will rally. What if: i] Current JB Admin wins&nbsp;the Presidential Election &amp; also losses&nbsp;the majority of&nbsp;Congress led by Demo. ii] Current JB Admin losses the Presidential Elect","text":"Thanks to the author on \"QQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now\". Great Article & Very thorough Analysis. Will awaitto see the \"bottom-test\" in 4-5weeks' times from this week, Oct/3 Mon. i am not an expert in Technical Analysis, but I do feel that the coming Nov 2022 US mid-term Presidential Election will have one of the major factors to consider. This coincides with your timeline totest the bottom-of the BOTTOM. If the current JB Admin wins the election for the next 4-years term plus the majority of the Congress led by Democratic Party, I believed the market will rally. What if: i] Current JB Admin wins the Presidential Election & also losses the majority of Congress led by Demo. ii] Current JB Admin losses the Presidential Elect","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":30,"commentSize":24,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915855097","repostId":"1137334453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137334453","pubTimestamp":1664982019,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137334453?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-05 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137334453","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.Even previously bullish ma","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>The market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.</li><li>Even previously bullish market strategists have been shaken by the recent wave of market pessimism, accentuated by the media&#39;s bearish calls.</li><li>We discuss why we could have reached peak pessimism last week, at heights unseen over the past fifteen years.</li><li>We also explain the critical levels investors need to watch to analyze the price action over the next four to five weeks to validate our thesis.</li><li>This is the moment investors need to be brave and not fall into the bearish camp.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac443e0ce1bd43b0a4d2729fe65b6d7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>24K-Production</span></p><p>Thesis</p><p>This is the moment that we have been waiting for, the ultimate trap to ensnare the bearish investors/short-sellers/hedgers. We gleaned that the market had set up the bearish conditions to form the most potent bear trap (indicating the market denied furtherselling downside decisively) in our arsenal last Friday (September 30), when the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) re-tested its June lows.</p><p>Accordingly, it joined the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) in its quest to attract sellers into their June bottom by breaking below it. Therefore, it created the optimal conditions for sellers to be drawn deep into peak bear market pessimism, taking out the stop losses from buyers who picked June&#39;s lows, creating massive panic.</p><p>As discussed below, we also observed critical observations from Wall Street strategists who maintained their bullish views until last week&#39;s re-tests. Hence, even the most resilient bullish equity strategists are now unsure of their posture, adding to the score of already pessimistic Wall Street strategists.</p><p>Notwithstanding, our analysis suggests that the market has set up such re-test conditions several times to form significant bear market bottoms before. These are conditions designed to force weak buyers who thought they picked the lows in June to abandon their thesis entirely at the worst possible moment. They are also intended to fan the flames in the media, who have been touting bearish ideas during these volatile times to attract eyeballs.</p><p>While we have yet to glean a validated bullish reversal signal that could confirm that this is the ultimate bottom, we are cautiously optimistic. Notwithstanding, no one can predict precisely how the market will move in the next four to five weeks, which is critical to our thesis. However, even if you really want to cut exposure, we urge you not to jump ship now at the worst possible time of peak pessimism. Sell at the next relief rally if you desire, but not here and not now.</p><p>We reiterate our Buy rating on the SPY and QQQ.</p><p>Bullish Strategists Are Now Uncertain With Their Conviction</p><p>In our daily update for our members, we observed several indicators that highlighted peak pessimism in the market last week. We noted that the put/call premium reached a record high that was unseen over the past fifteen years. We accentuated:</p><blockquote>[The put/call premium] reached an extreme [level] well above the highs in June [2022] and at levels not seen over the past 15 years. That means it&#39;s even higher than the levels last seen in the 2008/09 financial crisis. The fear and panic have reached a crescendo. Note that this contrarian indicator is very consistent in its predictive potency of a significant bottoming process when it reaches extreme levels. It&#39;s incredible; markets have finally turned extremely panicky, much more than in June, and at the highest levels over the past 15! (Ultimate Growth Investing 28 September 2022 Daily Market Analysis)</blockquote><p>Furthermore, we also gleaned that previously bullish strategists have started questioning their conviction levels. For instance, JPMorgan&#39;s (JPM) Marko Kolanovic, who is noted to have been &#34;a steadfast bullthroughout the stock market&#39;s more than 20% decline this year, but now some big risks are forming that he can&#39;t ignore.&#34; He highlighted:</p><blockquote>Most of the risks in 2022 are a result of policies: escalation of geopolitical tensions and violence, mismanagement of the energy crisis, damaging (instead of nurturing) of global trade relationships and supply chains, fanning internal political divisions, and more. It all amounts to throwing rocks in glass house. While we remain above-consensus positive, these [year-end] targets may not be realized until 2023 or when the risks ease. - Insider</blockquote><p>Even market strategist Edward Yardeni, who has been calling for a &#34;rolling/growth recession&#34; instead of a full-blown one, is also considering revisiting his thesis, as it could have been &#34;too optimistic.&#34; He articulated:</p><blockquote>The latest economic indicators suggest that the economy is doing better than expected but also that inflation remains too high. That alignment increases the odds of more Fed tightening than previously expected, a higher terminal fed funds rate, and a Fed-induced hard landing. A hard landing isn&#39;t currently our economic forecast-we see the growth recession continuing through year-end. But fears of a Fed-induced hard landing are increasing bearishness in both bond and stock markets. We are assessing whether our forecasts for both S&amp;P 500 earnings and valuation might be too optimistic. (Yardeni Research October 3 morning briefing)</blockquote><p>The point we are trying to make is not to call out these two well-respected strategists. But, we believe it&#39;s necessary to point out that even some of the most optimistic market strategists are now questioning their conviction levels. It corroborates our indicators that suggest that the market could have reached peak pessimism, as we suggested.</p><p>Significant Market Bottoming Process Could Be Forming</p><p>Investors need to understand that the market is a complex machinery. But, we believe experienced investors generally concur that the most significant market bottoms are formed at levels of peak pessimism. That includes the depths seen in the dotcom bust in the early 2000s or the global financial crisis of 2007-09.</p><p>But is the current bear market bottoming process any different? We don&#39;t think anyone can tell you exactly how the current bottom would pan out. Notwithstanding, they often demonstrate similar price structures that unveil significant clues about their bottoming process. Let&#39;s see.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c4858ac6a8891490febd96e54cbbd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>QQQ price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>As seen above, the market forced the QQQ down rapidly to its June lows through September after posting its August highs, forming the re-test.</p><p>We believe the summer rally from the initial June bottom cajoled investors into covering their hedges and investors waiting on the sideline to join the momentum surge, as it broke above May&#39;s highs. As a result, it created a &#34;higher-high&#34; structure, giving these investors&#39; confidence that June&#39;s bottom could have marked the market&#39;s ultimate lows.</p><p>Of course, the market had other ideas, as the steep selling through September helped create another opportunity to draw in sellers rapidly, as market pessimism reached feverish levels.</p><p>Notwithstanding, the re-test also created a potential double bottom opportunity, predicated on the lows in June. So, June lows are still valid, but the market needed to force another round of massive panic by taking out the summer gains before reversing the momentum.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f20ea4352b6cd926d55d0a59dbcf6ad4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>We also gleaned similar price action in the SPY, which re-tested its June bottom ahead of the QQQ last week.</p><p>Hence, the stage is set for the double bottom to be validated over the next four to five weeks. Therefore, we believe price-action-based investors will be carefully poring over the market dynamics over this period to discern buyers&#39; resilience to create the potential bullish reversal price action, leading to the next sustained uptrend.</p><p>Investors could also ask whether the price action in March was considered a double bottom. The answer is no. Because the market was not in a prior downtrend, market conditions are not considered bearish enough to validate a double bottom.</p><p>However, the length and extent of the bear market since its November 2021 highs have formed a medium-term downtrend in the current re-test. Therefore, we have the critical condition of a downtrending market to validate the double bottom in our arsenal.</p><p>Previous Double Bottoms Marked The Ultimate Bottom</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cafca6b8573804703e65bdffc2141e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>We bring you back to the global financial crisis of 2007-09 to help investors glean the market&#39;s bottoming process, which also formed a double bottom.</p><p>As seen above, the rapid capitulation from August to September 2008 led to an initial bear trap in November 2008, not long after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffet&#39;s famous op-ed in The New York Times (NYT), accentuating:</p><blockquote>What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over. -NYT</blockquote><p>Actually, Buffett&#39;s timing of his commentary was logical and spot on. However, the market had other ideas, as it needed to create another massive panic wave to force the ultimate lows: the double bottom.</p><p>As seen above, the market then went on another selling overdrive over the next four months forcing investors to flee to the hills and drawing in sellers on peak pessimism. Alas, the double bottom formed and was validated at the lows in March 2009.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012ad6c1d1f14aef4b8fc52f68592736\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NASDAQ price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>We also gleaned another double bottom in the significant market bottoming process at the dotcom bust in the early 2000s. As seen above, the NASDAQ (NDX) formed its initial lows in September 2001, coming right after the WTC terrorist attacks. However, the bear trap only occurred in August 2002.</p><p>Notwithstanding, the market needed to force another low to create massive panic by forming a double bottom in October 2002, effectively taking out the lows from August&#39;s bear trap. Subsequently, the index never looked back until the Great Financial Crisis in 2007.</p><p>Takeaway</p><p>We have discussed critical market turning points that often culminated in double bottoms in the most significant bear markets over the past twenty years.</p><p>Therefore, the SPY and the QQQ are given the opportunity to demonstrate that we are on the cusp of another double bottom, trapping bearish investors/short sellers at the worst possible moments.</p><p>The market action over the next four to five weeks will be critical to validating our thesis.</p><p>We remain cautiously optimistic given the massive pessimism seen in the market, coupled with constructive price action. Accordingly, we <i>reiterate our Buy rating on the QQQ and the SPY.</i></p><p><i>This article was written by JR Research.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ And SPY: Major Market Bottoming Signals Forming Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544587-qqq-and-spy-major-market-bottoming-signals-forming-now-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.Even previously bullish ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544587-qqq-and-spy-major-market-bottoming-signals-forming-now-technical-analysis\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544587-qqq-and-spy-major-market-bottoming-signals-forming-now-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137334453","content_text":"SummaryThe market is entering a critical phase with the potential to force a major bear market bottoming process seen in the most significant bear markets: the double bottom.Even previously bullish market strategists have been shaken by the recent wave of market pessimism, accentuated by the media's bearish calls.We discuss why we could have reached peak pessimism last week, at heights unseen over the past fifteen years.We also explain the critical levels investors need to watch to analyze the price action over the next four to five weeks to validate our thesis.This is the moment investors need to be brave and not fall into the bearish camp.24K-ProductionThesisThis is the moment that we have been waiting for, the ultimate trap to ensnare the bearish investors/short-sellers/hedgers. We gleaned that the market had set up the bearish conditions to form the most potent bear trap (indicating the market denied furtherselling downside decisively) in our arsenal last Friday (September 30), when the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) re-tested its June lows.Accordingly, it joined the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) in its quest to attract sellers into their June bottom by breaking below it. Therefore, it created the optimal conditions for sellers to be drawn deep into peak bear market pessimism, taking out the stop losses from buyers who picked June's lows, creating massive panic.As discussed below, we also observed critical observations from Wall Street strategists who maintained their bullish views until last week's re-tests. Hence, even the most resilient bullish equity strategists are now unsure of their posture, adding to the score of already pessimistic Wall Street strategists.Notwithstanding, our analysis suggests that the market has set up such re-test conditions several times to form significant bear market bottoms before. These are conditions designed to force weak buyers who thought they picked the lows in June to abandon their thesis entirely at the worst possible moment. They are also intended to fan the flames in the media, who have been touting bearish ideas during these volatile times to attract eyeballs.While we have yet to glean a validated bullish reversal signal that could confirm that this is the ultimate bottom, we are cautiously optimistic. Notwithstanding, no one can predict precisely how the market will move in the next four to five weeks, which is critical to our thesis. However, even if you really want to cut exposure, we urge you not to jump ship now at the worst possible time of peak pessimism. Sell at the next relief rally if you desire, but not here and not now.We reiterate our Buy rating on the SPY and QQQ.Bullish Strategists Are Now Uncertain With Their ConvictionIn our daily update for our members, we observed several indicators that highlighted peak pessimism in the market last week. We noted that the put/call premium reached a record high that was unseen over the past fifteen years. We accentuated:[The put/call premium] reached an extreme [level] well above the highs in June [2022] and at levels not seen over the past 15 years. That means it's even higher than the levels last seen in the 2008/09 financial crisis. The fear and panic have reached a crescendo. Note that this contrarian indicator is very consistent in its predictive potency of a significant bottoming process when it reaches extreme levels. It's incredible; markets have finally turned extremely panicky, much more than in June, and at the highest levels over the past 15! (Ultimate Growth Investing 28 September 2022 Daily Market Analysis)Furthermore, we also gleaned that previously bullish strategists have started questioning their conviction levels. For instance, JPMorgan's (JPM) Marko Kolanovic, who is noted to have been \"a steadfast bullthroughout the stock market's more than 20% decline this year, but now some big risks are forming that he can't ignore.\" He highlighted:Most of the risks in 2022 are a result of policies: escalation of geopolitical tensions and violence, mismanagement of the energy crisis, damaging (instead of nurturing) of global trade relationships and supply chains, fanning internal political divisions, and more. It all amounts to throwing rocks in glass house. While we remain above-consensus positive, these [year-end] targets may not be realized until 2023 or when the risks ease. - InsiderEven market strategist Edward Yardeni, who has been calling for a \"rolling/growth recession\" instead of a full-blown one, is also considering revisiting his thesis, as it could have been \"too optimistic.\" He articulated:The latest economic indicators suggest that the economy is doing better than expected but also that inflation remains too high. That alignment increases the odds of more Fed tightening than previously expected, a higher terminal fed funds rate, and a Fed-induced hard landing. A hard landing isn't currently our economic forecast-we see the growth recession continuing through year-end. But fears of a Fed-induced hard landing are increasing bearishness in both bond and stock markets. We are assessing whether our forecasts for both S&P 500 earnings and valuation might be too optimistic. (Yardeni Research October 3 morning briefing)The point we are trying to make is not to call out these two well-respected strategists. But, we believe it's necessary to point out that even some of the most optimistic market strategists are now questioning their conviction levels. It corroborates our indicators that suggest that the market could have reached peak pessimism, as we suggested.Significant Market Bottoming Process Could Be FormingInvestors need to understand that the market is a complex machinery. But, we believe experienced investors generally concur that the most significant market bottoms are formed at levels of peak pessimism. That includes the depths seen in the dotcom bust in the early 2000s or the global financial crisis of 2007-09.But is the current bear market bottoming process any different? We don't think anyone can tell you exactly how the current bottom would pan out. Notwithstanding, they often demonstrate similar price structures that unveil significant clues about their bottoming process. Let's see.QQQ price chart (weekly) (TradingView)As seen above, the market forced the QQQ down rapidly to its June lows through September after posting its August highs, forming the re-test.We believe the summer rally from the initial June bottom cajoled investors into covering their hedges and investors waiting on the sideline to join the momentum surge, as it broke above May's highs. As a result, it created a \"higher-high\" structure, giving these investors' confidence that June's bottom could have marked the market's ultimate lows.Of course, the market had other ideas, as the steep selling through September helped create another opportunity to draw in sellers rapidly, as market pessimism reached feverish levels.Notwithstanding, the re-test also created a potential double bottom opportunity, predicated on the lows in June. So, June lows are still valid, but the market needed to force another round of massive panic by taking out the summer gains before reversing the momentum.SPY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)We also gleaned similar price action in the SPY, which re-tested its June bottom ahead of the QQQ last week.Hence, the stage is set for the double bottom to be validated over the next four to five weeks. Therefore, we believe price-action-based investors will be carefully poring over the market dynamics over this period to discern buyers' resilience to create the potential bullish reversal price action, leading to the next sustained uptrend.Investors could also ask whether the price action in March was considered a double bottom. The answer is no. Because the market was not in a prior downtrend, market conditions are not considered bearish enough to validate a double bottom.However, the length and extent of the bear market since its November 2021 highs have formed a medium-term downtrend in the current re-test. Therefore, we have the critical condition of a downtrending market to validate the double bottom in our arsenal.Previous Double Bottoms Marked The Ultimate BottomSPY price chart (weekly) (TradingView)We bring you back to the global financial crisis of 2007-09 to help investors glean the market's bottoming process, which also formed a double bottom.As seen above, the rapid capitulation from August to September 2008 led to an initial bear trap in November 2008, not long after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffet's famous op-ed in The New York Times (NYT), accentuating:What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over. -NYTActually, Buffett's timing of his commentary was logical and spot on. However, the market had other ideas, as it needed to create another massive panic wave to force the ultimate lows: the double bottom.As seen above, the market then went on another selling overdrive over the next four months forcing investors to flee to the hills and drawing in sellers on peak pessimism. Alas, the double bottom formed and was validated at the lows in March 2009.NASDAQ price chart (weekly) (TradingView)We also gleaned another double bottom in the significant market bottoming process at the dotcom bust in the early 2000s. As seen above, the NASDAQ (NDX) formed its initial lows in September 2001, coming right after the WTC terrorist attacks. However, the bear trap only occurred in August 2002.Notwithstanding, the market needed to force another low to create massive panic by forming a double bottom in October 2002, effectively taking out the lows from August's bear trap. Subsequently, the index never looked back until the Great Financial Crisis in 2007.TakeawayWe have discussed critical market turning points that often culminated in double bottoms in the most significant bear markets over the past twenty years.Therefore, the SPY and the QQQ are given the opportunity to demonstrate that we are on the cusp of another double bottom, trapping bearish investors/short sellers at the worst possible moments.The market action over the next four to five weeks will be critical to validating our thesis.We remain cautiously optimistic given the massive pessimism seen in the market, coupled with constructive price action. Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on the QQQ and the SPY.This article was written by JR Research.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067760238,"gmtCreate":1652512329124,"gmtModify":1676535115122,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"#Swing Trading Basics#.This proposition by one of the TigerBros Community writer&nbsp;is too risky for my \"appetite\"&nbsp;of&nbsp;long term investment, ie Buy&amp;Sell, Buy&amp;Sell, Buy&amp;Sell, etc. Predictability &amp;&nbsp;Speculating what's next is NOT called Shares&nbsp;Investment. Maybe, work for some investors, certainly not for&nbsp;me.I believed in long term investment and have recenyly sold all Electric Vehicles &amp; related EV companies, in particular Chinese EV companies such as NIO, XPeng, LI&nbsp;&amp; Chinese companies&nbsp;listed in US ADRs (such as BABA).&nbsp;Fortunately, before the dip!!!&nbsp;May just wait-out till the Chinese markets are more stabilised due to&nbsp;current US-Chn Trade&nbsp;Tension and the continued Chn&nbsp;TECH Crackdown &amp; US Public&nbsp;Accou","listText":"#Swing Trading Basics#.This proposition by one of the TigerBros Community writer&nbsp;is too risky for my \"appetite\"&nbsp;of&nbsp;long term investment, ie Buy&amp;Sell, Buy&amp;Sell, Buy&amp;Sell, etc. Predictability &amp;&nbsp;Speculating what's next is NOT called Shares&nbsp;Investment. Maybe, work for some investors, certainly not for&nbsp;me.I believed in long term investment and have recenyly sold all Electric Vehicles &amp; related EV companies, in particular Chinese EV companies such as NIO, XPeng, LI&nbsp;&amp; Chinese companies&nbsp;listed in US ADRs (such as BABA).&nbsp;Fortunately, before the dip!!!&nbsp;May just wait-out till the Chinese markets are more stabilised due to&nbsp;current US-Chn Trade&nbsp;Tension and the continued Chn&nbsp;TECH Crackdown &amp; US Public&nbsp;Accou","text":"#Swing Trading Basics#.This proposition by one of the TigerBros Community writer is too risky for my \"appetite\" of long term investment, ie Buy&Sell, Buy&Sell, Buy&Sell, etc. Predictability & Speculating what's next is NOT called Shares Investment. Maybe, work for some investors, certainly not for me.I believed in long term investment and have recenyly sold all Electric Vehicles & related EV companies, in particular Chinese EV companies such as NIO, XPeng, LI & Chinese companies listed in US ADRs (such as BABA). Fortunately, before the dip!!! May just wait-out till the Chinese markets are more stabilised due to current US-Chn Trade Tension and the continued Chn TECH Crackdown & US Public Accou","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067760238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000652","authorId":"9000000000000652","name":"ChristKitto","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Thank the author for sharing. It is more robust to invest capital in stocks with sound fundamentals, brighter prospects and worth holding for a long time.","text":"Thank the author for sharing. It is more robust to invest capital in stocks with sound fundamentals, brighter prospects and worth holding for a long time.","html":"Thank the author for sharing. It is more robust to invest capital in stocks with sound fundamentals, brighter prospects and worth holding for a long time."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937363939,"gmtCreate":1663372311221,"gmtModify":1676537259511,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$NVDA$&nbsp;Why Nvidia&nbsp;rose on a down market? One of the TigerBros Posting.Very Short Term - Yes &amp; No.$NVDA$, with the CHIP ACT (CheapAct) &amp; if $NVDA$ is following thru without thorough &amp; deep analysis, there is a potential US$400M+&nbsp;China revenue evaporating into the wind. How to sustain its share price? What are the thought from the shareholders?My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or&nbsp;companies, Buy, Sell or Hold. You need to make your own analysis &amp; judgement on the stock you wish to invest.","listText":"$NVDA$&nbsp;Why Nvidia&nbsp;rose on a down market? One of the TigerBros Posting.Very Short Term - Yes &amp; No.$NVDA$, with the CHIP ACT (CheapAct) &amp; if $NVDA$ is following thru without thorough &amp; deep analysis, there is a potential US$400M+&nbsp;China revenue evaporating into the wind. How to sustain its share price? What are the thought from the shareholders?My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or&nbsp;companies, Buy, Sell or Hold. You need to make your own analysis &amp; judgement on the stock you wish to invest.","text":"$NVDA$ Why Nvidia rose on a down market? One of the TigerBros Posting.Very Short Term - Yes & No.$NVDA$, with the CHIP ACT (CheapAct) & if $NVDA$ is following thru without thorough & deep analysis, there is a potential US$400M+ China revenue evaporating into the wind. How to sustain its share price? What are the thought from the shareholders?My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or companies, Buy, Sell or Hold. You need to make your own analysis & judgement on the stock you wish to invest.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937363939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003856548,"gmtCreate":1640938020503,"gmtModify":1676533556924,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Retail Investors Are “FEARFUL”1] FEARFUL of delisting BABA ADR under the US Public Accounting Act, if it does not complied by 2025. Act includes 2 major matters: open book on Principles of Book-Keeping &amp; Accounting AND company must not have any Chinese Govt Link or any Chinese Govt on BABA Board of Directors Membership.2] FEARFUL of delisting by China Regulatory Act on Data Security Law &amp; the Personal Information Protection Law.Chinese Regulatory requirements &amp; Compliance:a] BABA have setup a high-level Committee to oversee strict compliance to Chinese Regulatory requirements.b] BABA have already been penalised for US$2.8B antitrust fine.c] BABA has pledged to contribute US$15.5B to the “Common Prosperity” Fund by 2025.d","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Retail Investors Are “FEARFUL”1] FEARFUL of delisting BABA ADR under the US Public Accounting Act, if it does not complied by 2025. Act includes 2 major matters: open book on Principles of Book-Keeping &amp; Accounting AND company must not have any Chinese Govt Link or any Chinese Govt on BABA Board of Directors Membership.2] FEARFUL of delisting by China Regulatory Act on Data Security Law &amp; the Personal Information Protection Law.Chinese Regulatory requirements &amp; Compliance:a] BABA have setup a high-level Committee to oversee strict compliance to Chinese Regulatory requirements.b] BABA have already been penalised for US$2.8B antitrust fine.c] BABA has pledged to contribute US$15.5B to the “Common Prosperity” Fund by 2025.d","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Retail Investors Are “FEARFUL”1] FEARFUL of delisting BABA ADR under the US Public Accounting Act, if it does not complied by 2025. Act includes 2 major matters: open book on Principles of Book-Keeping & Accounting AND company must not have any Chinese Govt Link or any Chinese Govt on BABA Board of Directors Membership.2] FEARFUL of delisting by China Regulatory Act on Data Security Law & the Personal Information Protection Law.Chinese Regulatory requirements & Compliance:a] BABA have setup a high-level Committee to oversee strict compliance to Chinese Regulatory requirements.b] BABA have already been penalised for US$2.8B antitrust fine.c] BABA has pledged to contribute US$15.5B to the “Common Prosperity” Fund by 2025.d","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003856548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562291419401554","authorId":"3562291419401554","name":"nictanks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f5319d058ff54421b4447faa279f1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"the qn is probably how long","text":"the qn is probably how long","html":"the qn is probably how long"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914364379,"gmtCreate":1665190039892,"gmtModify":1676537569523,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$TIGR$ Tiger Brokers, kindly explain in brief how to get the Tiger Coins with the new requirements. See picture attached","listText":"$TIGR$ Tiger Brokers, kindly explain in brief how to get the Tiger Coins with the new requirements. See picture attached","text":"$TIGR$ Tiger Brokers, kindly explain in brief how to get the Tiger Coins with the new requirements. See picture attached","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a69a79cde3b4adacc24850507892ed08","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914364379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4102565315636710","authorId":"4102565315636710","name":"pete13","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de2f1804c0b4dd973c0d032f23c9ddc1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Do a post on selected stocks and click on either bullish or bearish","text":"Do a post on selected stocks and click on either bullish or bearish","html":"Do a post on selected stocks and click on either bullish or bearish"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924884548,"gmtCreate":1672222396184,"gmtModify":1676538655169,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$TSLA$, in reply to the writer: Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain. Don't try to catch a falling (stone)&nbsp;knife !!! Maybe, I will consider around $80/share. But, if RECESSION is imminent, then it could be lower. 🤣🤣🤣, my humble thought only. Pls decide your own investment criteria &amp; decision. TQ.","listText":"$TSLA$, in reply to the writer: Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain. Don't try to catch a falling (stone)&nbsp;knife !!! Maybe, I will consider around $80/share. But, if RECESSION is imminent, then it could be lower. 🤣🤣🤣, my humble thought only. Pls decide your own investment criteria &amp; decision. TQ.","text":"$TSLA$, in reply to the writer: Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain. Don't try to catch a falling (stone) knife !!! Maybe, I will consider around $80/share. But, if RECESSION is imminent, then it could be lower. 🤣🤣🤣, my humble thought only. Pls decide your own investment criteria & decision. TQ.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924884548","repostId":"1177985721","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177985721","pubTimestamp":1672242021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177985721?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-28 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177985721","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Tesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.</li><li>There is a lot of noise surrounding the world&#39;s leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) macro challenges.</li><li>These concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla&#39;s long-term potential - the stock looks undervalued.</li><li>I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.</li></ul><h3>Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD. For reference, this loss of value is worse than what investors needed to suffer with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (down about 65% YTD), and the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) has only lost about 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde4b5693a019a70b9ea28b00512c6a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Personally, I am confident to argue that the current sell-off provides investors with an attractive buying opportunity. To be fair, there is a lot of noise surrounding the world&#39;s leading electric car marker, including (1) Elon Musk selling shares, (2) Elon Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) various macroeconomic challenges. But these concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla&#39;s long-term potential - the stock clearly looks undervalued at FWD x26 EV/EBIT.</p><h3>Is It Elon Musk, Or Interest Rates?</h3><p>With some Tesla investors, the narrative is building that Tesla&#39;s sharp sell-off is strongly correlated to Elon Musk&#39;s takeover of Twitter. Ross Gerber for example, a notable Tesla bull, has implied that Elon Musk&#39;s behavior/ actions have erased $600 billion in market capitalization. But Musk quickly defended himself with the argument that the sell-off has been caused by higher interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7c1869f3ca5aa92bb963e223f8f0dbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Let us look these two positions with a little bit more context.</p><h3>Elon Musk Shifting Focus Away From Tesla</h3><p>A key argument why some investors believe that Tesla shares are falling is anchored on the simple observation that Tesla shares have lost approximately 40% since the Twitter deal closed on 27th October, while the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) is down by only 2%.</p><p>Some investors are clearly concerned that with the Twitter acquisition, Elon Musk will lose focus on his role as Tesla&#39;s CEO - now being Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter, The Boring Company and Neuralink.</p><p>Moreover, there has been some evidence that Elon Musk is shifting additional resources away from Tesla, not only his own time and energy. In late October, Musk invited about 50 Tesla engineers to the Twitter headquarters, asking their support in improving various algorithms on the social media platform. However, Musk argued that the commitment was non-material to Tesla&#39;s business operations: (emphasis added)</p><blockquote>This was an after hours — just if you’re interested in evaluating, helping me evaluate Twitter engineering ... that’d be nice. I think it lasted for a few days and it was over.</blockquote><p>In any case, Elon Musk has by now said that he will step down as Twitter&#39;s CEO, as soon as a suitable successor is found.</p><h3>Elon Musk Selling Shares</h3><p>Enormous blocks of share sales is another observation linked to Musk&#39;s acquisition of Twitter. Since the Twitter deal has been announced, Musk has sold nearly $23 billion worth of stock, despite his promise in April that he won&#39;t. Of course, selling $23 billion of equity in a bear market adds strong downward pressure to prices, and the action certainly pressures both investor confidence as well as sentiment.</p><p>Now once again Elon Musk has promised to not sell any shares - until at least 12 months. But will investors trust this promise?</p><blockquote>I won’t sell stock until, I don’t know, probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter</blockquote><h3>Interest Rates</h3><p>Meanwhile, Elon Musk argued that Tesla &#39;is executing better than ever&#39;, and the reason for the stock&#39;s sell-off is due to higher interest rates. While the interest rate argument might be true to some extent, looking at the basic DCF formula...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a63228358f96949ea5eab01cfd2f807\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>... investors should consider that since the Twitter deal closed, the Fed raised the funds rate by only 50 basis points. However you structure the DCF formula, it is hard to mathematically (and reasonably) prove a $600 billion loss of value due to only 0.5% higher interest rates.</p><p></p><p>Moreover, while Tesla&#39;s share price might indeed be more sensible to higher interest rates than the S&amp;P 500 (Tesla is a long duration growth asset), the performance discrepancy of Tesla and the S&amp;P 500 for the past few months is simply too excessive to be explained by interest rates.</p><h3>Macroeconomic Challenges</h3><p>The real reason why Tesla shares are slipping might simply be the uncertainty and fundamental pressure related to macroeconomic challenges. Elon Musk has already voiced concerns that the economy might fall into a recession in 2023 and Tesla car sales might suffer accordingly.</p><p>I think we are in a recession, and I think 2023 is going to be quite a serious recession ...</p><p>... It’s going to be, in my opinion, comparable to 2009. I don’t know if it’s going to be a little worse or a little better, but I think it’s, in my view, likely to be comparable. That means demand for any kind of optional, discretionary item, especially if it’s a big-ticket item, will be lower.</p><p>Notably, Tesla shares fell as much as 10% after the car maker announced price discounts of $7,500 to US consumers - an announcement that clearly hints on demand concerns. The thesis of demand concerns is supported by Tesla.com website traffic data from Semrush, which highlights that interest for cars could be falling off a cliff.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb5f6a810d444856a2b1e1c7233ba7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Valuation</h3><p>Valuing Tesla, I continue to believe Tesla could sell an estimated 10 million cars per year by 2030 and achieve an average sales price per car of $65,000. Furthermore, I continue to assume:</p><blockquote>a net-profit margin of 15.5%, which is only slightly above Tesla&#39;s 2022 net profit margin and in my opinion a very reasonable assumption if one consider increased economies of scale. (Note that I expect sales volume to almost 10x).</blockquote><blockquote>In addition, I argue that for every dollar that Tesla generates selling cars, the company will be able to sell 20 cents of software solutions and insurance (for reference, Apple generates about 30 cents worth of services for every dollar of hardware sales). For Tesla&#39;s software business, I argue 35% net-profit margin is reasonable -- in line with margins of leading tech/internet companies.</blockquote><p>However, I slightly increase my cost of equity estimate - to 11% as compared to 10% prior. The rationale behind this increase is that Tesla&#39;s value is anchored on the future, and betting on the future remains speculative. It is thus, in my opinion, only reasonable to demand an attractive reward for such a speculation.</p><p>Based on the above variables, I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfe9835e449e0a31e6e5df9e8b1e608\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risks and Headwinds</h3><p>As I see it, there has been no major risk update since I initiated coverage on Tesla stock, except for those discussed in previous sections. Thus, I would like to highlight what I have written before:</p><blockquote>Although Tesla has proven to be more resilient than what investors thought, both in relation to a challenging macro-economy and fading risk-sentiment, I believe the major risk for Tesla stock remains that a worsening macroeconomic backdrop will pressure investors risk-sentiment to such a degree that Tesla stock&#39;s growth multiples compress. Or in other words, investors should acknowledge that much of Tesla&#39;s share price performance remains driven by general sentiment towards stocks (Tesla&#39;s beta vs the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is about 1.7). Accordingly, investors should be prepared to stomach volatility, even though Tesla&#39;s fundamental outlook remains unchanged.</blockquote><blockquote>Personally, I do not believe that increasing competition in the race for electrification will influence the demand for Tesla -- like &#34;other&#34; smart phone makers do not influence the demand for iPhones. The increased competition could, however, exacerbate Tesla&#39;s supply challenges, as more competition chases for a limited supply of raw materials and key manufacturing components.</blockquote><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>I have never thought I would say this, but Tesla stock now appears to be trading in bargain territory. Personally, I would argue that the headwinds presented in the prior sections of this article could be classified as temporary, or noise. Long-term, Tesla remains the leading EV maker, with a strong brand and the world&#39;s most extensive network of EV charging stations.</p><p>Personally, I calculate that TSLA stock should be fairly valued at about $294.19/share (which indicates almost 150% upside). Buy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-28 23:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177985721","content_text":"SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) macro challenges.These concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla's long-term potential - the stock looks undervalued.I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.ThesisTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD. For reference, this loss of value is worse than what investors needed to suffer with Meta Platforms (down about 65% YTD), and the S&P 500 (SPY) has only lost about 20%.Personally, I am confident to argue that the current sell-off provides investors with an attractive buying opportunity. To be fair, there is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car marker, including (1) Elon Musk selling shares, (2) Elon Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) various macroeconomic challenges. But these concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla's long-term potential - the stock clearly looks undervalued at FWD x26 EV/EBIT.Is It Elon Musk, Or Interest Rates?With some Tesla investors, the narrative is building that Tesla's sharp sell-off is strongly correlated to Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter. Ross Gerber for example, a notable Tesla bull, has implied that Elon Musk's behavior/ actions have erased $600 billion in market capitalization. But Musk quickly defended himself with the argument that the sell-off has been caused by higher interest rates.Let us look these two positions with a little bit more context.Elon Musk Shifting Focus Away From TeslaA key argument why some investors believe that Tesla shares are falling is anchored on the simple observation that Tesla shares have lost approximately 40% since the Twitter deal closed on 27th October, while the S&P 500 (SPY) is down by only 2%.Some investors are clearly concerned that with the Twitter acquisition, Elon Musk will lose focus on his role as Tesla's CEO - now being Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter, The Boring Company and Neuralink.Moreover, there has been some evidence that Elon Musk is shifting additional resources away from Tesla, not only his own time and energy. In late October, Musk invited about 50 Tesla engineers to the Twitter headquarters, asking their support in improving various algorithms on the social media platform. However, Musk argued that the commitment was non-material to Tesla's business operations: (emphasis added)This was an after hours — just if you’re interested in evaluating, helping me evaluate Twitter engineering ... that’d be nice. I think it lasted for a few days and it was over.In any case, Elon Musk has by now said that he will step down as Twitter's CEO, as soon as a suitable successor is found.Elon Musk Selling SharesEnormous blocks of share sales is another observation linked to Musk's acquisition of Twitter. Since the Twitter deal has been announced, Musk has sold nearly $23 billion worth of stock, despite his promise in April that he won't. Of course, selling $23 billion of equity in a bear market adds strong downward pressure to prices, and the action certainly pressures both investor confidence as well as sentiment.Now once again Elon Musk has promised to not sell any shares - until at least 12 months. But will investors trust this promise?I won’t sell stock until, I don’t know, probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafterInterest RatesMeanwhile, Elon Musk argued that Tesla 'is executing better than ever', and the reason for the stock's sell-off is due to higher interest rates. While the interest rate argument might be true to some extent, looking at the basic DCF formula...... investors should consider that since the Twitter deal closed, the Fed raised the funds rate by only 50 basis points. However you structure the DCF formula, it is hard to mathematically (and reasonably) prove a $600 billion loss of value due to only 0.5% higher interest rates.Moreover, while Tesla's share price might indeed be more sensible to higher interest rates than the S&P 500 (Tesla is a long duration growth asset), the performance discrepancy of Tesla and the S&P 500 for the past few months is simply too excessive to be explained by interest rates.Macroeconomic ChallengesThe real reason why Tesla shares are slipping might simply be the uncertainty and fundamental pressure related to macroeconomic challenges. Elon Musk has already voiced concerns that the economy might fall into a recession in 2023 and Tesla car sales might suffer accordingly.I think we are in a recession, and I think 2023 is going to be quite a serious recession ...... It’s going to be, in my opinion, comparable to 2009. I don’t know if it’s going to be a little worse or a little better, but I think it’s, in my view, likely to be comparable. That means demand for any kind of optional, discretionary item, especially if it’s a big-ticket item, will be lower.Notably, Tesla shares fell as much as 10% after the car maker announced price discounts of $7,500 to US consumers - an announcement that clearly hints on demand concerns. The thesis of demand concerns is supported by Tesla.com website traffic data from Semrush, which highlights that interest for cars could be falling off a cliff.ValuationValuing Tesla, I continue to believe Tesla could sell an estimated 10 million cars per year by 2030 and achieve an average sales price per car of $65,000. Furthermore, I continue to assume:a net-profit margin of 15.5%, which is only slightly above Tesla's 2022 net profit margin and in my opinion a very reasonable assumption if one consider increased economies of scale. (Note that I expect sales volume to almost 10x).In addition, I argue that for every dollar that Tesla generates selling cars, the company will be able to sell 20 cents of software solutions and insurance (for reference, Apple generates about 30 cents worth of services for every dollar of hardware sales). For Tesla's software business, I argue 35% net-profit margin is reasonable -- in line with margins of leading tech/internet companies.However, I slightly increase my cost of equity estimate - to 11% as compared to 10% prior. The rationale behind this increase is that Tesla's value is anchored on the future, and betting on the future remains speculative. It is thus, in my opinion, only reasonable to demand an attractive reward for such a speculation.Based on the above variables, I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.Risks and HeadwindsAs I see it, there has been no major risk update since I initiated coverage on Tesla stock, except for those discussed in previous sections. Thus, I would like to highlight what I have written before:Although Tesla has proven to be more resilient than what investors thought, both in relation to a challenging macro-economy and fading risk-sentiment, I believe the major risk for Tesla stock remains that a worsening macroeconomic backdrop will pressure investors risk-sentiment to such a degree that Tesla stock's growth multiples compress. Or in other words, investors should acknowledge that much of Tesla's share price performance remains driven by general sentiment towards stocks (Tesla's beta vs the S&P 500 (SPX) is about 1.7). Accordingly, investors should be prepared to stomach volatility, even though Tesla's fundamental outlook remains unchanged.Personally, I do not believe that increasing competition in the race for electrification will influence the demand for Tesla -- like \"other\" smart phone makers do not influence the demand for iPhones. The increased competition could, however, exacerbate Tesla's supply challenges, as more competition chases for a limited supply of raw materials and key manufacturing components.Investor TakeawayI have never thought I would say this, but Tesla stock now appears to be trading in bargain territory. Personally, I would argue that the headwinds presented in the prior sections of this article could be classified as temporary, or noise. Long-term, Tesla remains the leading EV maker, with a strong brand and the world's most extensive network of EV charging stations.Personally, I calculate that TSLA stock should be fairly valued at about $294.19/share (which indicates almost 150% upside). Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915984982,"gmtCreate":1664936485046,"gmtModify":1676537532438,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Repost my comment in reply to: POST dtd 2022 Oct/3 Mon on “Short on OPEC+ Cut” by GA907: My view: OPEC+ cut output to spur price increase. Russia has big Customers. Europe will have an&nbsp;oil/gas crisis this winter &amp; beyond. US is driving too much fosil oil &amp; damaging the climate changes. China, India &amp; some major&nbsp;countries have enough supply &amp; are watching this oil/gas development closely. Added: PetrolDollar (pre-dominately by USD) will be in deep trouble in the near future. My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or&nbsp;companies, Buy, Sell,&nbsp;Hold or Short. You need to make your own analysis &amp; judgement on the stock you wish to invest. (Note: my comment on GA907 Main Post&nbsp;cannot be more than 200 characters, hence","listText":"Repost my comment in reply to: POST dtd 2022 Oct/3 Mon on “Short on OPEC+ Cut” by GA907: My view: OPEC+ cut output to spur price increase. Russia has big Customers. Europe will have an&nbsp;oil/gas crisis this winter &amp; beyond. US is driving too much fosil oil &amp; damaging the climate changes. China, India &amp; some major&nbsp;countries have enough supply &amp; are watching this oil/gas development closely. Added: PetrolDollar (pre-dominately by USD) will be in deep trouble in the near future. My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or&nbsp;companies, Buy, Sell,&nbsp;Hold or Short. You need to make your own analysis &amp; judgement on the stock you wish to invest. (Note: my comment on GA907 Main Post&nbsp;cannot be more than 200 characters, hence","text":"Repost my comment in reply to: POST dtd 2022 Oct/3 Mon on “Short on OPEC+ Cut” by GA907: My view: OPEC+ cut output to spur price increase. Russia has big Customers. Europe will have an oil/gas crisis this winter & beyond. US is driving too much fosil oil & damaging the climate changes. China, India & some major countries have enough supply & are watching this oil/gas development closely. Added: PetrolDollar (pre-dominately by USD) will be in deep trouble in the near future. My humble opinion only. Not advising on investment of any particular company or companies, Buy, Sell, Hold or Short. You need to make your own analysis & judgement on the stock you wish to invest. (Note: my comment on GA907 Main Post cannot be more than 200 characters, hence","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915984982","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993650961,"gmtCreate":1660691348156,"gmtModify":1676536377856,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"$TSLA$ Tesla Motors… 3 Biggest GIGA Factories.","htmlText":"$TSLA$ Tesla Motors….Great Record on 3M EVs. Keep going wt 3 Giga Factories to capture the EVs&nbsp;World. Factories in Shanghai, China; Austin, Texas/US &amp; Berlin, Germany are all Giga Factories &amp; well-positioned. And, 1/3 of the built is in China.Maybe, $TSLA$ should considered one more new Giga Factory in one of the ASEAN Region. This strategy will enable all year-round supply continuity without worry of each Country Policy changes, Political situation &amp; interuption.These pointers are my opinion and it is not to be taken as an advise to invest, ie BUY or SELL or HOLD the shares. Maybe, the situation has changed and I am not aware of the latest situation.","listText":"$TSLA$ Tesla Motors….Great Record on 3M EVs. Keep going wt 3 Giga Factories to capture the EVs&nbsp;World. Factories in Shanghai, China; Austin, Texas/US &amp; Berlin, Germany are all Giga Factories &amp; well-positioned. And, 1/3 of the built is in China.Maybe, $TSLA$ should considered one more new Giga Factory in one of the ASEAN Region. This strategy will enable all year-round supply continuity without worry of each Country Policy changes, Political situation &amp; interuption.These pointers are my opinion and it is not to be taken as an advise to invest, ie BUY or SELL or HOLD the shares. Maybe, the situation has changed and I am not aware of the latest situation.","text":"$TSLA$ Tesla Motors….Great Record on 3M EVs. Keep going wt 3 Giga Factories to capture the EVs World. Factories in Shanghai, China; Austin, Texas/US & Berlin, Germany are all Giga Factories & well-positioned. And, 1/3 of the built is in China.Maybe, $TSLA$ should considered one more new Giga Factory in one of the ASEAN Region. This strategy will enable all year-round supply continuity without worry of each Country Policy changes, Political situation & interuption.These pointers are my opinion and it is not to be taken as an advise to invest, ie BUY or SELL or HOLD the shares. Maybe, the situation has changed and I am not aware of the latest situation.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993650961","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005423223,"gmtCreate":1642384738787,"gmtModify":1676533706568,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$PLTR$&nbsp;Business model &amp; strategy look good. But,&nbsp;I read somewhere &amp; probably misunderstand….that new shares are issued for Employees&nbsp;Salary Based&nbsp;Compensation. Would this dilute the share price consistently?","listText":"$PLTR$&nbsp;Business model &amp; strategy look good. But,&nbsp;I read somewhere &amp; probably misunderstand….that new shares are issued for Employees&nbsp;Salary Based&nbsp;Compensation. Would this dilute the share price consistently?","text":"$PLTR$ Business model & strategy look good. But, I read somewhere & probably misunderstand….that new shares are issued for Employees Salary Based Compensation. Would this dilute the share price consistently?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005423223","repostId":"1169852230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169852230","pubTimestamp":1642295348,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169852230?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-16 09:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Myth Of Overvaluation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169852230","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir went through a large drop in pricing in Q4’21 and in the early days of 2022.Shares o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Palantir went through a large drop in pricing in Q4’21 and in the early days of 2022.</li><li>Shares of Palantir are not overvalued, they trade at 16X FY 2025 projected free cash flow.</li><li>Commercial revenue acceleration, new product launches, expansion of the free cash flow margin and potential SPAC deal pay-offs support Palantir’s valuation.</li></ul><p>The new year is just fourteen days old and shares of Palantir (PLTR) already fell 12%, continuing a sell-off that started back in November 2021. I don&#39;t see any good reason or justification for the sell-off as Palantir will continue to grow its top line rapidly and new service offerings are set to fuel the firm&#39;s commercial growth. That Palantir is overvalued, is a myth!</p><p><b>Commercial revenue growth could accelerate as new products launch</b></p><p>There are few industries that have as fantastic growth prospects as the big data and analytics industry. Companies are accumulating more and more data from customers and their operations, requiring software solutions and artificial intelligence support to monetize this data most efficiently.</p><p>What am I most excited about, as a Palantir investor, is Palantir&#39;s opening of a new growth frontier in the big data world. Palantir will start to roll out its &#34;Foundry for Crypto&#34; in FY 2022 which offers banks, FinTechs and other companies involved in the crypto economy a way to validate customer information and to implement anti-money laundering tools. Since the crypto universe is still highly unregulated, Palantir&#39;s Foundry for Crypto could make a big difference in legitimizing this industry.</p><p>Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are here to stay and Palantir has a huge opportunity at its hands to develop a multi-million-dollar revenue business within a very short period of time. Key customers for Palantir&#39;s Foundry for Crypto are likely going to be financial institutions and crypto trading marketplaces like Coinbase (COIN) which have massive customer bases. Adoption of Palantir&#39;s Foundry for Crypto platform by leading market institutions could materially accelerate Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue growth.</p><p>Because of the opening of a new business segment, I see strong prospects for revenue acceleration for Palantir in the foreseeable future. Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue growth accelerated throughout FY 2021 due to strong customer acquisition and growing adoption of the firm&#39;s products and services. Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue growth accelerated from 19% in Q1&#39;21 to 28% in Q2&#39;21, and then to 37% in Q3&#39;21. Palantir&#39;s revenue acceleration in the commercial business was the reason why Palantir raised its free cash flow and revenue guidance for FY 2021. Because the commercial segment is growing increasingly fast, Palantir already raised its free cash flow outlook twice in FY 2021. The firm now expects free cash flow of $400M+ for FY 2021, after raising the guidance by 33% in Q3&#39;21.</p><p><b>Palantir is not overvalued based on expected free cash flow ramp</b></p><p>Palantir&#39;s business reached a critical point in FY 2021 and the proof is in the company&#39;s growing free cash flow margins. As the firm scales its services and leads more customers through its onboarding process, Palantir should see a significant improvement of its free cash flow margin going forward. Palantir&#39;s Q3&#39;21 free cash flow was $119M which calculates to a free cash flow margin of 30%. I believe Palantir could grow its free cash flow margin to 40% by 2025, meaning the firm is set to become a seriously profitable business within the next four years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e54fb7120d0b51650400b5081ae56a9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>I also expect Palantir to grow revenues faster than the 30% that have been mentioned as a long-term growth target. The reason for this is that Palantir is signing on more customers and those customers spend more money on the firm&#39;s products and services over time, meaning monetization is improving. Assuming that Palantir can grow revenues at an annual 35% rate over the next four years, Palantir is looking at $5.0B in revenues and $2.0B in free cash flow by FY 2025. The calculation below is built on the assumption that Palantir&#39;s free cash flow margin will grow from 30% in FY 2021 to 40% by FY 2025. Over the next four years, Palantir should be able to increase its annual free cash flow by at least a factor of 4 X.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48214b624573bdb844c741431b6fac4e\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>And investors should not forget about this potentially massive income stream…</p><p><b>The &#34;forgotten&#34; SPAC business</b></p><p>Palantir has come up with a clever revenue growth strategy that combines upside in SPAC investments with long-term software servicing contracts. Palantir is committing investing capital to startups that look to finance growth and, in return, the company gets equity and a signed contract for the provision of its software platforms. I rarely see this business discussed, but it presents considerable valuation upside for Palantir. In Q3&#39;21, the firm&#39;s total investments in startups summarized to $226.5M. Palantir only needs one big exit from one of these SPAC investments listed below to generate a massive windfall.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c452699a2b9ef7ab9b9b5f16074fd788\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><b>Risks with Palantir</b></p><p>The biggest risk for shares of Palantir, as I see it, is continual selling pressure that is the result of a profound misunderstanding related to how the firm&#39;s business model works in practice. Palantir&#39;s business is evolving and progress is measurable and undeniable. The proof is in Palantir&#39;s improving free cash flow margin and accelerating (commercial) revenue growth. Revenues can only accelerate if more companies adopt Palantir&#39;s services. Customers are also growing their platform spend, meaning each customer that signs with Palantir is going to have a higher value for the firm in the future, unless they cancel their relationship of course. Since the business had a net customer add of 34 in Q3&#39;21, there is no evidence that customers are unhappy with the services they receive. Palantir&#39;s total customer base increased at a massive 20% rate quarter over quarter in Q3&#39;21, proving significant momentum in customer sign-ups.</p><p>I am willing to change my opinion on Palantir if the firm&#39;s actual revenue growth rates and free cash flow margins drop below my estimates.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>Based off of free cash flow estimates, which do not include pay-offs from SPAC divestments, shares of Palantir trade at 16 X FY 2025 projected free cash flow, assuming a 10 PP FCF margin improvement in the next four years. This margin improvement could result from the launch of new high-margin products like Foundry for Crypto, the accelerating roll-out of Foundry for Builders and higher product spend on a per-customer basis. It is a myth that Palantir is overvalued and the stock has considerable rebound potential in FY 2022!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Myth Of Overvaluation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Myth Of Overvaluation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-16 09:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479733-palantir-the-myth-of-overvaluation><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir went through a large drop in pricing in Q4’21 and in the early days of 2022.Shares of Palantir are not overvalued, they trade at 16X FY 2025 projected free cash flow.Commercial revenue...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479733-palantir-the-myth-of-overvaluation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479733-palantir-the-myth-of-overvaluation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1169852230","content_text":"SummaryPalantir went through a large drop in pricing in Q4’21 and in the early days of 2022.Shares of Palantir are not overvalued, they trade at 16X FY 2025 projected free cash flow.Commercial revenue acceleration, new product launches, expansion of the free cash flow margin and potential SPAC deal pay-offs support Palantir’s valuation.The new year is just fourteen days old and shares of Palantir (PLTR) already fell 12%, continuing a sell-off that started back in November 2021. I don't see any good reason or justification for the sell-off as Palantir will continue to grow its top line rapidly and new service offerings are set to fuel the firm's commercial growth. That Palantir is overvalued, is a myth!Commercial revenue growth could accelerate as new products launchThere are few industries that have as fantastic growth prospects as the big data and analytics industry. Companies are accumulating more and more data from customers and their operations, requiring software solutions and artificial intelligence support to monetize this data most efficiently.What am I most excited about, as a Palantir investor, is Palantir's opening of a new growth frontier in the big data world. Palantir will start to roll out its \"Foundry for Crypto\" in FY 2022 which offers banks, FinTechs and other companies involved in the crypto economy a way to validate customer information and to implement anti-money laundering tools. Since the crypto universe is still highly unregulated, Palantir's Foundry for Crypto could make a big difference in legitimizing this industry.Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are here to stay and Palantir has a huge opportunity at its hands to develop a multi-million-dollar revenue business within a very short period of time. Key customers for Palantir's Foundry for Crypto are likely going to be financial institutions and crypto trading marketplaces like Coinbase (COIN) which have massive customer bases. Adoption of Palantir's Foundry for Crypto platform by leading market institutions could materially accelerate Palantir's commercial revenue growth.Because of the opening of a new business segment, I see strong prospects for revenue acceleration for Palantir in the foreseeable future. Palantir's commercial revenue growth accelerated throughout FY 2021 due to strong customer acquisition and growing adoption of the firm's products and services. Palantir's commercial revenue growth accelerated from 19% in Q1'21 to 28% in Q2'21, and then to 37% in Q3'21. Palantir's revenue acceleration in the commercial business was the reason why Palantir raised its free cash flow and revenue guidance for FY 2021. Because the commercial segment is growing increasingly fast, Palantir already raised its free cash flow outlook twice in FY 2021. The firm now expects free cash flow of $400M+ for FY 2021, after raising the guidance by 33% in Q3'21.Palantir is not overvalued based on expected free cash flow rampPalantir's business reached a critical point in FY 2021 and the proof is in the company's growing free cash flow margins. As the firm scales its services and leads more customers through its onboarding process, Palantir should see a significant improvement of its free cash flow margin going forward. Palantir's Q3'21 free cash flow was $119M which calculates to a free cash flow margin of 30%. I believe Palantir could grow its free cash flow margin to 40% by 2025, meaning the firm is set to become a seriously profitable business within the next four years.I also expect Palantir to grow revenues faster than the 30% that have been mentioned as a long-term growth target. The reason for this is that Palantir is signing on more customers and those customers spend more money on the firm's products and services over time, meaning monetization is improving. Assuming that Palantir can grow revenues at an annual 35% rate over the next four years, Palantir is looking at $5.0B in revenues and $2.0B in free cash flow by FY 2025. The calculation below is built on the assumption that Palantir's free cash flow margin will grow from 30% in FY 2021 to 40% by FY 2025. Over the next four years, Palantir should be able to increase its annual free cash flow by at least a factor of 4 X.And investors should not forget about this potentially massive income stream…The \"forgotten\" SPAC businessPalantir has come up with a clever revenue growth strategy that combines upside in SPAC investments with long-term software servicing contracts. Palantir is committing investing capital to startups that look to finance growth and, in return, the company gets equity and a signed contract for the provision of its software platforms. I rarely see this business discussed, but it presents considerable valuation upside for Palantir. In Q3'21, the firm's total investments in startups summarized to $226.5M. Palantir only needs one big exit from one of these SPAC investments listed below to generate a massive windfall.Risks with PalantirThe biggest risk for shares of Palantir, as I see it, is continual selling pressure that is the result of a profound misunderstanding related to how the firm's business model works in practice. Palantir's business is evolving and progress is measurable and undeniable. The proof is in Palantir's improving free cash flow margin and accelerating (commercial) revenue growth. Revenues can only accelerate if more companies adopt Palantir's services. Customers are also growing their platform spend, meaning each customer that signs with Palantir is going to have a higher value for the firm in the future, unless they cancel their relationship of course. Since the business had a net customer add of 34 in Q3'21, there is no evidence that customers are unhappy with the services they receive. Palantir's total customer base increased at a massive 20% rate quarter over quarter in Q3'21, proving significant momentum in customer sign-ups.I am willing to change my opinion on Palantir if the firm's actual revenue growth rates and free cash flow margins drop below my estimates.Final thoughtsBased off of free cash flow estimates, which do not include pay-offs from SPAC divestments, shares of Palantir trade at 16 X FY 2025 projected free cash flow, assuming a 10 PP FCF margin improvement in the next four years. This margin improvement could result from the launch of new high-margin products like Foundry for Crypto, the accelerating roll-out of Foundry for Builders and higher product spend on a per-customer basis. It is a myth that Palantir is overvalued and the stock has considerable rebound potential in FY 2022!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000521","authorId":"9000000000000521","name":"KittyBruno","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Warning: if you’re a long term (3-5 years) investor, keep DCA and hold for bigger rewards and ignore the short. If you want to get rich overnight, stay away from PLTR.","text":"Warning: if you’re a long term (3-5 years) investor, keep DCA and hold for bigger rewards and ignore the short. If you want to get rich overnight, stay away from PLTR.","html":"Warning: if you’re a long term (3-5 years) investor, keep DCA and hold for bigger rewards and ignore the short. If you want to get rich overnight, stay away from PLTR."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934313669,"gmtCreate":1663197443124,"gmtModify":1676537223039,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Inflation vs Interest Rate Hike 2022Inflation:&nbsp;August was 8.3% versus July was 8.5%.Interest Rate Hike: July was 0.75% versus Sept is&nbsp;??%.There is alot of speculation &amp; rumor that it will be around 0.75% after the Sept/20-21 FED Reserve meet-up.WHAT IF? The final decision is 1.0%?&nbsp;Will the Stock Market tumble?","listText":"Inflation vs Interest Rate Hike 2022Inflation:&nbsp;August was 8.3% versus July was 8.5%.Interest Rate Hike: July was 0.75% versus Sept is&nbsp;??%.There is alot of speculation &amp; rumor that it will be around 0.75% after the Sept/20-21 FED Reserve meet-up.WHAT IF? The final decision is 1.0%?&nbsp;Will the Stock Market tumble?","text":"Inflation vs Interest Rate Hike 2022Inflation: August was 8.3% versus July was 8.5%.Interest Rate Hike: July was 0.75% versus Sept is ??%.There is alot of speculation & rumor that it will be around 0.75% after the Sept/20-21 FED Reserve meet-up.WHAT IF? The final decision is 1.0%? Will the Stock Market tumble?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934313669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905059110,"gmtCreate":1659776666433,"gmtModify":1703766487321,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$BABA$.... indeed true. With 3&nbsp;issues still unclear, not too sure BABA is still a BUY, although manyanalysts have said on the contrary.1] Delisting from USA Stock Exchange on ADR due to Public Accounting Act. Likely, listing in HK Stock Exchange, but the market &amp;&nbsp;valuation is different.2] Blacklist on Counterfeit products by US Regulators. Still an unkown issues to be resolved.3] Under Chinese Regulators&nbsp;investigation on BABA&nbsp;IPO suspected participation by government&nbsp;officials. I read the news simetimes ago, but not too sure this issue has been resolved.Anyone, pls comment &amp; correct me, If I am wrong.These pointers are my opinion and it is not to be taken as an advise to invest, ie&nbsp;BUY or SELL or HOLD the shares. Maybe, the situation has changed and I","listText":"$BABA$.... indeed true. With 3&nbsp;issues still unclear, not too sure BABA is still a BUY, although manyanalysts have said on the contrary.1] Delisting from USA Stock Exchange on ADR due to Public Accounting Act. Likely, listing in HK Stock Exchange, but the market &amp;&nbsp;valuation is different.2] Blacklist on Counterfeit products by US Regulators. Still an unkown issues to be resolved.3] Under Chinese Regulators&nbsp;investigation on BABA&nbsp;IPO suspected participation by government&nbsp;officials. I read the news simetimes ago, but not too sure this issue has been resolved.Anyone, pls comment &amp; correct me, If I am wrong.These pointers are my opinion and it is not to be taken as an advise to invest, ie&nbsp;BUY or SELL or HOLD the shares. Maybe, the situation has changed and I","text":"$BABA$.... indeed true. With 3 issues still unclear, not too sure BABA is still a BUY, although manyanalysts have said on the contrary.1] Delisting from USA Stock Exchange on ADR due to Public Accounting Act. Likely, listing in HK Stock Exchange, but the market & valuation is different.2] Blacklist on Counterfeit products by US Regulators. Still an unkown issues to be resolved.3] Under Chinese Regulators investigation on BABA IPO suspected participation by government officials. I read the news simetimes ago, but not too sure this issue has been resolved.Anyone, pls comment & correct me, If I am wrong.These pointers are my opinion and it is not to be taken as an advise to invest, ie BUY or SELL or HOLD the shares. Maybe, the situation has changed and I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905059110","repostId":"1136904781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136904781","pubTimestamp":1659757961,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136904781?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136904781","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-exp","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>BABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.</li><li>Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.</li><li>However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock&#39;s selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.</li><li>Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.</li></ul><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba&#39;s history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.</p><p>Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market&#39;s cautions about the Alibaba stock.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba&#39;s rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to &#34;outweigh any favorable valuation.&#34;</p><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.</p><p><b>The Risks Are Still There</b></p><p>Alibaba stock&#39;s downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a &#34;valuation reset&#34; in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.</p><p><b>1. Regulatory Crackdowns</b></p><p>Recent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.</p><p>Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors&#39; confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.</p><p>And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors&#39; confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country&#39;s largest data breaches in history.</p><p>In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba&#39;s business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company&#39;s cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit&#39;s market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei&#39;s cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba&#39;s consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba&#39;s highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment&#39;s revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.</p><p>The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers&#39; pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba&#39;s comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba&#39;s deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.</p><p>Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba&#39;s growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.</p><p><b>2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (&#34;HFCAA&#34;)</b></p><p>Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.</p><p>Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors&#39; fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.</p><p>In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (&#34;CSRC&#34;) is &#34;considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,&#34; but the agency would still like the ability to &#34;withhold sensitive data from inspection&#34; where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess &#34;unredacted&#34; audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries &#34;have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.&#34;</p><p>As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given &#34;increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia&#39;s largest economy.&#34; Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while &#34;Florida&#39;s pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.&#34; Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was &#34;about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.&#34; Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock&#39;s future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company&#39;s addition to the SEC&#39;s HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p><b>3. Global Economic Uncertainties</b></p><p>Even internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the &#34;618&#34; bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.</p><p>This has added pressure to Alibaba&#39;s recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba&#39;s core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment &#34;declined mid-single-digit y/y&#34; during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba&#39;s &#34;88VIP&#34; members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period&#39;s GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.</p><p>The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba&#39;s recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba&#39;s international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba&#39;s major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba&#39;s plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU&#39;s removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba&#39;s ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.</p><p><b>Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation Update</b></p><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba&#39;s actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba&#39;s growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.</p><p>And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba&#39;s business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b23ccb7b6e755cf0baabe2ebb626b35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49f4dec53abacb221e7b157ebc0da0ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)</p><p>On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba&#39;s growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector&#39;s risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d51c258a7e0988da0491680f467d4a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)</p><p>However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478fbc394cf5dd111f0a9104aebcd4b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)</p><p>Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors&#39; confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>In the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.</p><p>For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.</p><p>Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136904781","content_text":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock's selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba's history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market's cautions about the Alibaba stock.While Alibaba's valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba's rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to \"outweigh any favorable valuation.\"Considering Alibaba's long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.The Risks Are Still ThereAlibaba stock's downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a \"valuation reset\" in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba's fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.1. Regulatory CrackdownsRecent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors' confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors' confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country's largest data breaches in history.In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba's business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company's cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit's market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei's cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba's consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba's highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment's revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers' pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba's comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba's deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba's growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (\"HFCAA\")Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors' fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (\"CSRC\") is \"considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,\" but the agency would still like the ability to \"withhold sensitive data from inspection\" where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess \"unredacted\" audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries \"have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.\"As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given \"increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia's largest economy.\" Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while \"Florida's pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.\" Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.While Alibaba's recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was \"about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.\" Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock's future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company's addition to the SEC's HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.3. Global Economic UncertaintiesEven internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the \"618\" bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.This has added pressure to Alibaba's recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba's core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment \"declined mid-single-digit y/y\" during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba's \"88VIP\" members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period's GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba's recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba's international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba's major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba's plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU's removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba's ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation UpdateAdjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba's actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba's growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba's business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba's growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector's risks.Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors' confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.Final ThoughtsIn the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba's fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172811275,"gmtCreate":1626950641797,"gmtModify":1703481175816,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read some bad news about CCIV &amp; Lucid MotorsSPAC Merger. True?","listText":"Read some bad news about CCIV &amp; Lucid MotorsSPAC Merger. True?","text":"Read some bad news about CCIV & Lucid MotorsSPAC Merger. True?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aac061e1bf1c6c67481c8e44ac0ccf7","width":"1125","height":"3508"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172811275","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569509213544516","authorId":"3569509213544516","name":"haotify","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"ignore the noise. go do some research. u invest not for the company, but the people behind.","text":"ignore the noise. go do some research. u invest not for the company, but the people behind.","html":"ignore the noise. go do some research. u invest not for the company, but the people behind."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}