twinkle5
2022-12-22

$Carnival(CCL)$  Wow. I must say, that report today was much worse than even I expected. Passenger Cruise Day's(PCD) were a very lousy 18.3M, versus 23.34M in 2019. Number of passengers was a paltry 2.5M, versus 3.076M in 2019. Occupancy was a lousy 85%, versus 107.3% in 2019. No recovery here, even though they pumped their "record setting" bookings in March and July. What a joke. Just like their joke "records" for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Suuure. Records for the first 15minutes of the day most likely. I also love their "adjusted" EBITDA. Uh, you can adjust it all you want, but a cash loss is still a cash loss. Let's see, they lost $1.1B in cold hard cash, NOT including the $500M they had to shell out in capex to maintain the ships this quarter. The tiny bit they might make in the 3rd and 4th quarters next year won't even come close to cover their interest payments of $2B due in 2023, and climbing. And they need another $2.377B in 2023 for principal payments, and another $1.6B to cover maintenance. You longs willing to buy another $3.977B in new bonds and new stock shares to fund all of this? They will try another bond or secondary offering very soon. I am more confident than ever that CCL be forced to file for Chapter 11. If the markets were down today, this would have broken below $5.

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