🔥🥵🔥$5 🆚 $185 Price🎯For First Republic Bank⁉️

LMSunshine
2023-03-18

First Republic Bank (FRC) continued its 🛝🛝🛝 on 17/3 (Fri) after the bank suspended its dividend & disclosed higher borrowing costs eating into its valuation, despite an unprecedented $30 billion deposit from 11 major 🇺🇸 banks🏦🏦🏦 Wedbush analyst was 🐻🐻🐻-ish while JPMorgan was 🐂🐂🐂-ish…

🔎🔎🔎 Wedbush Analysis:

FRC was downgraded by a Wedbush analyst, who put a $5 price🎯 on the stock after capital infusion😨😰🥵⁉️ Investors reacted to the analyst’s downgrade & sold-off again😓😓😓 FRC 🚀🚀 & closed at $34.27 on 16/3 (Thu) after 📰 of the $30 billion capital infusion but crashed💥💥💥 32.8% to close at $23.03 & 🛝🛝🛝 another 15.33% at post-market trading on 17/3🔥🥵🔥🥵🔥

⚠️ The analyst warned that a potential sale of the company “could result in minimal, if any, residual value to common equity holders & expects that FRC could end up with “significant negative tangible book value.”

⚠️ The analyst is taking First Republic’s “fair value marks on its loans and securities” into account when issuing this warning.

⚠️ The analyst lowered his rating from “outperform” to “neutral” & massively✂️✂️✂️ his price🎯 from $140 to $5😨😰🥵 despite acknowledging that FRC has an “exceptionally strong reputation and franchise value.”

🔎🔎🔎 JPMorgan Analysis:

On the other hand, JPMorgan analysts have reconfirmed their “Overweight” rating & “Top Pick” designation on FRC following the commitment of $30 billion in uninsured deposits. The analysts view this move as historic & have never seen the industry come together to help secure a peer in need before.

🐂 The analysts believe that the $30 billion in deposits provided by the large 🏦🏦🏦, which have $16 trillion of aggregate assets, will be enough to provide FRC with sufficient additional runway. 

🐂 They see FRC as a higher risk but potentially very high reward name, trading "well below" TBV (tangible book value), & maintain their “Overweight” rating. They have revised their price🎯 from $160 to $62.

⚠️ JPMorgan Chase themselves are contributing $5 Billion🤔🤔🤔 Is this 🐂-ish review to safeguard their own monies-it is said that this kind of actions are not allowed & analysts are not supposed to be communicating with the investing arm but I’m highly suspicious.

⭐️ The current consensus among 24 polled investment analysts is to “Hold” with 2 “Sell”, 14 “Hold”, & 8 “Buy” ratings.

⭐️ The 21 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for FRC have a median🎯 of $140, with a high🎯 of $185 & a low🎯 of $5.

🤔Is The 🏦 Crisis Over Yet❓How Should We Trade FRC❓

My quick answer is not yet & the next 1-2 weeks will give us confirmation on whether the 🏦 crisis is over & here’s why. Let’s analyse the a quickly executed poll by Reuters & Ipsos of 1,004 🇺🇸 consumers on 14-15 March which provides a bit of insight on how Americans are feeling about the chaos in the banking system, the government’s response, & if they feel their deposits are in danger.

(1) Only about half of the respondents to the poll said they’ve heard At Least a Fair Amount about Silicon Valley Bank's implosion😧 What will happen when all hear fully about it❓Wouldn’t it cause a 2nd-🌊🌊 of panicky depositors withdrawing 💰💵❓

(2) 68% said they had At Least a Fair Amount of confidence in the stability of their own bank, & the same % had at least that level of confidence in banks more generally, so that means 32% of Americans created the panic withdrawals😅 Any 👎📰 is likely to waver the 68% & chaos will set in again💥💥💥

(3) My take is that FRC is not for the faint-hearted❤️‍🩹❤️‍🩹❤️‍🩹 Only long FRC if you can accept the possibility of it dropping to $5😅Howver, if you don’t mind taking a big risk for the reward of the median🎯 price of $140, then FRC might be for you😉

$First Republic Bank(FRC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ 

Fellow 🐯🐯🐯 Will you long FRC❓Vote🗳 & Share your thoughts with me in the comments section❣️Do follow me if you enjoy reading analytical stock research🔍 presented in a fun & easily understandable way & for more 🤖Stock Price Predictions🔮

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As usual-🤔💭 Consider POV & Actions of Investors + 👩🏻‍💻👨🏻‍💻 Research + 🗑FOMO & Greed = Investing Wisely 🤓🤗 + Accumulating Wealth 💵💰

@TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger 

Buy & Long FRC❓(Maximum1 votes)
  • Yes-great potential(73 votes)
  • No-too risky(59 votes)
  • Still thinking🤔 (42 votes)
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • neo26000
    2023-03-19
    neo26000
    Thanks for sharing. If the experts also cannot agree, little hope for low mortals like me. Let me toss my one dollar coin for pfofitable direction...wait which  is heads and which is tails again?
    • LMSunshineReply建稳的朋友
      Welcome, happy to share🥰
    • LMSunshine
      It’s hard for them to agree on a controversial stock. Same like TSLA. I guess what’s more important is that we know the range and if we want to buy FRC, to be prepared for how much we may possibly lose.
    • 建稳的朋友
      🙏🙏
    • JonC1997
      Jk
  • Universe宇宙
    2023-03-19
    Universe宇宙
    Target price: $0.74 to $1.47 [Thinking]
  • icycrystal
    2023-03-19
    icycrystal
    thanks for sharing
  • Present83
    2023-03-19
    Present83
    stop interest rate raise is the key to save the bank
    • LMSunshine
      Not sure if that’s Fed’s priority😅
  • Penthon
    2023-03-19
    Penthon
    thks for the thought.
  • ChrisColeman
    2023-03-19
    ChrisColeman
    Dont buy bank stocks now. They look terrible technically.
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