What to Expect on Monday 10/4/2023

Economic Release 

$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2212(ESmain)$ 

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ 

What is NFP --> the Non-Farm Payroll report is a highly significant economic indicator that provides valuable information about the state of the U.S. labor market and the overall health of the economy.

The significance of the NFP report lies in its ability to provide a snapshot of the health of the U.S. economy. Stronger-than-expected job growth can indicate a healthy economy and potential inflationary pressures, which could lead to higher interest rates. Conversely, weaker-than-expected job growth can indicate a slowing economy, which could lead to lower interest rates.

Based on the actual data

of Nonfarm Payrolls Private and Nonfarm Payrolls, it is evident that the USD is bearish. This is due to weaker job growth compared to the previous release, indicating that the USD is likely to be bearish. Possibly due to this reason there will be another debateable reason whether the hike would be increaseby 25 or 50 bps Or stagnant. 

On the other hand, 

the unemployment rate has improved compared to the previous release, although the changes are not significant yet. This indicates that the USD is likely to become stronger. However, the Average Hourly Earnings are deteriorating, which is well supported equally by the NFP data. In summary, the data shows a mix of information, but overall the USD is bearish, and the market may spike up temporarily.

This is another sign that the recession has been delayed, and the market will have some room to move towards the upside.

Expectation

As there are no economic news scheduled for Monday, there is a high probability that SPY/NASDAQ may go up, and the future is already indicating an upward trend. However, I still expect the downtrend to be in play at the 1H time, but due to bullish economic factors, there are higher chances of an upward trend.

Now, let's take a look at the ES future.

ES Main future chart

If you observe the ES chart carefully at the 1H time frame, you will notice that the supply area is filled with buyers. If another 15-minute or 1H candle is covered, it will clearly look like a bullish engulfing pattern, and we might see another new high compared to the previous week.

However, the vertical type of box is still greater than the current one, so we might see selling later in the day. Remember to always follow the trend and never go against it.

Don't forget to share my article if you find my findings resonating well with you. Have a great weekend ahead.

@MillionaireTiger @MillionaireTiger @TigerStars @TigerPM @Tiger_SG