Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon

English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? $美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$ $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c

Chinese leaders visited the United States last week. Even by the time the visit ended and the official readout was released, there were few concrete measures or signed agreements. Apart from the easing of trade tariffs that the market had widely anticipated, there was little of particular note. The lack of a major domestic publicity push around the visit’s outcomes is also telling. Clearly, Trump hopes to generate a series of positive developments ahead of the midterm elections to bolster his electoral prospects. In addition to the Chinese visit, there was news last week of U.S.–Iran talks, but that, too, amounted to more talk than action, with no tangible outcome yet. Any further impact on oil prices and inflation may therefore have to wait until after the midterms. For financial markets

Since September, the market has not entered a period of broad-based risk-on sentiment. Instead, it has exhibited a structurally bullish bias led by technology stocks. The Nasdaq 100 has continued to make new highs for the current phase, while the S&P 500 has remained near its highs but has clearly lagged behind. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has eased inflationary and interest-rate pressures. The market is rewarding earnings expectations for AI and large-cap technology companies, but it has not abandoned its defenses against high valuations, economic growth risks, and geopolitical events. Below are distribution charts of trading volume and open interest in major futures options listed on CME Group, used to observe market expectations and risk protection across different p

English version： Last week, we put on a very small straddle position in QQQ: we simultaneously bought a September 25 call and put, both with a strike price of 704. The two legs cost $9.73 and $8.93, respectively. A few trading days later, the call has risen to $37.74, generating an unrealized gain of $2,800, while the put has fallen to just $0.26, producing a loss of $867. Netting the two together, this lightly sized position has already doubled. $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2609(MNQmain)$