$(MU)$

Chips are cyclical. make too many and you have oversupply.

This cycle is the same as previous cycles with too many chips made. But this was compounded by the macro factors that drove the cycle deeper. In 2019 it was just oversupply.

Here's a potential super-cycle scenario: yes we get a recession, so demand stays repressed through 2024. This means the Big 3 continue to reduce capex further into 2024 (assuming Samsung cooperates). When we eventually get out of the recession, that could set up an undersupply situation that may take years to resolve if there is so much pent up demand.

Adding to that, in 2025 we may have more EVs and tech in general will need more memory that possibly is not even getting factored in right now.