Probably the most edgy earning call for a very long time. Wall Street is expecting EPS of $1.15 and a revenue of $24.24 billion
More questions than answers
The recent run from $100 to $140 is great news for Tesla shareholders but it will be short lived if many issues that surfaced recently or issues that exist for sometime remain unanswered or is given an unsatisfactory answer.
Questions I hope can be given a satisfactory answer in this earning calls would be
What is the timeline for cybertruck production, specification and pricing.
We have been teased for many years on the release Tesla Cybertruck only to have it delayed on multiple times. 2023 looks set to be the year we can get our hands on Cybertruck although no specific date is announced yet.
With the release of the Cyber truck, Tesla will be given entry to one of the most profitable segments of the U.S. EV market and bring competitions and challege to electric pickups from the likes of Ford and Rivian Automotive both of which have launched similar models but are still not in mass production yet.
Updates on Tesla megapack and powerpack production and margin
Tesla recently teased us of their megafactory capable of producing 10k units of megapack per year
Megapack, meant for commercial use is priced at $2.1 million each which will help to generate $21 billion in revenue, it also has high demand now such that if you placed an order for one today, it can only be delivered two years later
I'm excited to see the future of Tesla battery packs which to me is a sleeping giant if Tesla can solve the ever demanding of energy storage world wide.
Where are we on the 4680 ramp
An Achillies heel of lowering production cost of Tesla vehicles has been the issues of ramping up 4680 battery cells
Recent good news is that the battery team is able to produce 4680 cells to support 1000 cars each week.
Tesla battery supply constraints have eased up over the last year thanks to suppliers ramping up production but a lot of the automaker’s growth this year is expected to be tied to its capacity to ramp up 4680 cell production.
Ultimately if these bottleneck is eased and 4680 cells are able to ramp up smoothly will give Tesla huge pricing power over other competitors with the significant decease in their production cost.
Other short term issues and nags
Many short-term questions such as
- Demand for Tesla cars in both US and China
- Automargin for 2023
- Is shares buyback likely to happen
- Is Tesla still on track to grow 50% in 2023
- Possibility of brand damage because of Elon Musk political comments and polls
Will be of interest in this earning calls
Thoughts
Short term Tesla will remain volatile in the current monetary contractary environment but this applies to other companies as well. I believe Tesla is in a healthy position to survive the current environment.
Long term I am confident of Tesla future, with a range of exciting products lined up. As long as Tesla continue to innovate tackling and solving the hardest issue faced by Mankind. Tesla becoming the most valuable company in the world doesn't seem so far fetched.
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