1. Thing about trendlines is that they move even if price doesn't -- so you have to face up to your problems sooner or later.2. Hodling on...
Despite still heavily Bearish Sentiment, investors have not reduced Equity Allocations
(actually, they increased the last 2 months in a row!)3. On the other hand, economic sentiment has come right down to meet investor sentiment.
Main Street now agreeing with Wall Street.
(basically at this point everyone agrees how bad and bearish everything is. Interesting...)4. Another angle on allocations vs sentiment...
As with chart no. 2 it begs the open question -- who is wrong? (+who will do the most work to close dat gap?)5. Similar thing on display in the ARKK chart
"Despite weak performance (-85% from 2021 peak), there are now more shares outstanding in this ETF (a proxy for flows into the fund) than at the peak in 21"
Hope springs eternal...6. On the other hand, investors pulled a record $18B out of tech funds last year as the tech bubblet burst
7. We know seasonality works different in bear markets vs all markets, but still a very interesting chart considering where sentiment is.
A presidential cycle present for the bulls?8. Bounce Back Stats
Unfortunately (or fortunately?) the S&P500 just missed being down 20% last year ("only" -19.4%)
So that leaves us in the Down 10% Or More category where returns were higher the year-after just 63.6% of the time...9. Sudden spike in Google Searches (or ChatGPT query):
"how to make 900% on my investments"
bad jokes aside, a good follow on from the previous chart, and even if markets rebound, they'll need to do about 25% to breakeven.10. S&P500 profit margin expansion was driven by tech -- question is, will tech go the way of financials?
(makes you wonder how much of that margin expansion was driven by cheap and freely available capital + fast adoption phase for many tech names)$S&P 500(.SPX)$
https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1611834288290553856
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