OVERVIEW:
- Some key economic data releases this week: US interest rate decision Wednesday – expect increase to 4.75% from 4.5%. ECB rate decision Thursday – expect increase to 3% from 2.5%. UK Interest rate decision Thursday expect to rise to 4% from 3.5%. Non farms US data out Friday.
- Oil fundamentals still bullish although technical a bit weaker.
- Gold still shining for the bulls.
- Chinese stocks bullish after come back from holidays.
- Crypto complex picking up bullish momentum.
- Big week for tech earnings – could shape US stock markets shorter term outlook. The ‘big boys’ report Wednesday / Thursday.
Trending on Social Media this morning:
USA: Adani, INTC, AXON, TSLA, C3 AI, BBBY, AMD, Sectors: Hydrogen
UK: MSFT, GOOG, JNJ, Adani,
AUD: Adani, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ - Sectors: Coal
SAF: $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ (see attached chart), Renergen, TSLA, Adani, MSFT,
Stock markets: Chinese stocks good strong start to the week after coming back from holidays. US markets pushing higher trying to break up further? Nikkei index recovering. NIFTY losing its momentum for possible pullback? SP500 4048, NDX100 12068, DAX 15065.
Commodities: Metals complex a bit quieter - $Gold - main 2302(GCmain)$ (trading 1942) still holding bullish (see attached chart). Nat Gas still on the slide and WTI bullish momentum weakening -trading 79.13? Sugar No11 and NY Cocoa looking to push higher.
Crypto: Crypto continues to strengthen (note highly correlated to US stock market performance) – BTC trading at 23297, ETH pulling back from last week to 1596. Best of the rest (bullish opportunities): MANA, MINA, LRC.
Forex: US Dollar remaining weak but possibly strengthening once more? CAD holding weaker. GBP looking to strengthen. EM currencies looking much stronger versus US Dollar.
Pair combo ideas: (see currency strength chart attached) +GBPUSD +USDCAD. -AUDUSD, +CADJPY
Scheduled economic news events to watch out for this week: (Times = GMT)
Time Cur. Event Forecast Previous
Mon:
09:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Forecast) 0.00% (Previous) 0.50%
Tue:
00:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.30% 1.40%
01:30 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.8 47.0
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jan) 5K -13K
13:00 EUR German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 0.1 0.1
13:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Nov) 0.0 0.0
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) 109.0 108.3
Wed:
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.5 49.0
08:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 47.0 47.0
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.7 46.7
10:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan) 9.10% 9.20%
13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 170K 235K
13:45 EUR ECB Press Conference
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.0 48.4
15:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) 10.200M 10.458M
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.533M
19:00 USD FOMC Statement
19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.75% 4.50%
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
Thu:
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 4.00% 3.50%
12:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
13:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Feb) 2.50% 2.00%
13:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 2.75%
13:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
13:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb) 3.00% 2.50%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 200K 186K
13:45 EUR ECB Press Conference
14:15 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
15:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
18:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Fri:
09:30 GBP Composite PMI (Jan) 47.8 47.8
09:30 GBP Services PMI (Jan) 48 48
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 185K 223K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Jan) 3.60% 3.50%
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.3 49.6
US Earnings to watch this week - key day Wed /Thu for the big tech stocks!! My picks of the week: NXPI, WYNN, XOM, PFE, MCD, CAT, UPS, AMGN, PSX, GM, EA, META, MO, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, LLY, COP, SBUX, F,
Good luck with the trading!
If you’d like to find out more about what I do, you can get in touch with me via:
Email: info@thestophunter.co.uk
Website: www.thestophunter.co.uk
YouTube: @thestophunter
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