1. Everyone's favorite downtrend line chart updated
Literally right on the cusp of a potential breakout
(or fakeout! -- not a done deal, and not meaningful until a clean+clear break is secured)
(also n.b. the symmetrical triangle at the end...)2. With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become.
Bull take: easy to surprise against (even if mediocre)
Bear take: if confirmed = bad news.3. On a similar note, retail have already come to terms with the bear market...
TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index plumbing the lows (sentiment indicator based on retail trader account activity)4. Retail Round Trip
Without a decent process or overarching strategy it often ends up a case of "buy high, sell low"5. Sentiment Cycles
Combined Bulls vs Bears from the II and AAII surveys, with 12-month smoothing -- let's you see the longer-term cycles in sentiment at play.
If you looked at this chart and nothing else, you'd probably have to say we are getting "close"...6. Speaking of Cycles...
The stylized textbook market cycle says bonds rally first, then stocks, then commodities (and so-on)
So far markets have been following that script near perfectly -- so you know what that means right?7. Last year was down so this year will be up, right?
Not so fast, there are multiple examples of stocks falling 2 or more years in a row...8. Big Tech is smaller now.(but still big)
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 9. Global equities are gaining the upper hand vs US equities -- is this *the* turning point for US vs global?
10. Deep (relative) Value
Important context to add to the previous chart -- Rest Of World is trading at the deepest discount vs the US since around the heights of the dot com bubble.https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1614382318231388160
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