New Bulls:An intriguing pattern is showing up in my global equity breadth charts. The chart below shows the proportion of countries whose main benchmark is up at least 20% off the low point… or aka what some people call a “bull market“.
By itself it is an interesting observation, and it’s quite a mix of countries too (from LatAm, Europe, Middle East, Asia). But what is especially intriguing is how this type of pattern in the indicator has historically flagged the beginning of new bull markets in global equities.
For example in 2009 the indicator turned sharply higher off washed-out levels — signaling a turn in prospects for the market, and same again in 2020. It also worked perhaps slightly less obviously in 2011 and 2016.
The problem is it also worked in 2003… but that came after a false/early signal in 2001. And the problem is there are several parallels between today’s macro backdrop and that which prevailed back then.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$
https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-15-january
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