The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC meeting last December, which was accused of being the most hawkish since May last year. It revealed that Federal Reserve officials need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Inflation is expected to have upside risks and economic expectations downside risks, with special emphasis on the external response mechanism to the authorities. Misreading may complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain price stability.
Recent employment data reflect that the U.S. economy is still resilient. I think the Federal Reserve will still maintain a continuous style of hawking, because Federal Reserve officials in the minutes of the December interest rate meeting are committed to fighting inflation and expect to continue to raise interest rates until more progress is made in this regard. What is more noteworthy is that no FOMC member expects to cut interest rates this year. Of the 19 officials of the Federal Reserve, 17 are expected to raise interest rates to 5.1% or higher this year, while none of the officials of the Federal Reserve in September meeting expected the interest rate to be higher than 5% in 2023.
Officials further warned the public that the FOMC's measures to slow down the pace of interest rate hike should not be overinterpreted. Slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes does not mean that the determination to achieve the anti-inflation goal has weakened, nor does it mean that inflation is at a high position and has begun to cool down significantly. It was generally believed at the meeting that it may take some time before some data made people confident that inflation could fall to 2%. Before this happens, it is necessary to maintain the position of restrictive policies. Historical experience reminds people that monetary policy should not be relaxed too early. Others said that they should pay attention to data at any time and maintain policy flexibility and selectivity.
The above meeting records show that the Federal Reserve still takes suppressing inflation as its top priority, so many Federal Reserve officials do not mention the discussion need for interest rate cuts, and can only continue to mention interest rate hikes. I think it can be observed that the Federal Reserve has just increased the interest rate of 50 basis points, and then the Federal Reserve will add 25 basis points of interest rate information next time, and then it will pause the interest rate increase to observe the inflation data before deciding or not. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will continue to release the behavior of the eagle unchanged. In fact, the main reason is that the Federal Reserve needs to be more Obviously, the CPI will at least be reduced more before there will be room for discussion of interest rate reduction, otherwise the behavior of eagle release will still be maintained.
I think the Federal Reserve's hawking action will seriously affect the violent shock of U.S. stocks. Interest rate hike will only accelerate the outflow of investment funds investing in the stock market, and the funds will still flow into U.S. treasury bonds and banks for time deposits, mainly because the risk of U.S. treasury bonds and bank deposits is lower than that of the stock market. On the contrary, the stock market is in disguised, investors will Loss of confidence in investing in the stock market, so it is difficult for the stock market to rise without the support of a large amount of funds for investment. I think U.S. stocks will continue to fluctuate due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, and the stock market will not have room to breathe until there are signs of a real suspension of interest rate hikes.
For investing in the stock market still needs to face the shock of the stock market caused by the continuous interest rate hike, I think it is necessary to invest in a planned way to absorb highly potential companies, including $Asmai. US, $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $Apple. US,$Apple(AAPL)$
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