melson
2022-11-12

$DIA(DIA)$  djia covered another gap (faint yellow line) above the downward trendline connecting the lower highs. $SPY(SPY)$ spx has yet to cover the gaps (yellow lines) so it is lagging djia. there might be pullback due to profit taking and then continue with santa rally, trending up till dec. djia might consolidate at this region waiting for spx to catch up. the vote is valid for 2 market days, so i predict it will continue to make a new high after a pullback. i guess herd mentality will kick in and cause funds to flood in the market. there are many lagging stocks that have yet to rally much. 

from the fed fund rate chart compared with cpi median and spx, you can observe that cpi m didn't subside as the market crashed from its recent all time peak. this might suggest that the market didn't overheat and cause cpi m to spike, the market is just reacting to supply disruptions, increasing oil prices, ukraine-russian war, bad policies, etc. kindda like mr market being beaten for something it did not do. that's why the santa rally that started since october. 

based on the data from the fed fund rate chart, you can see that there is a 10 month lag after fed fund rate peaks before cpi m subsides. 

as always, please apply automatic investment system by taking profit at 10% intervals or at resistance zone if you know technical analysis. this is so that you have enough capital to buy the dip.

merci beaucoup @TigerStars  [Heart] you are our shining star

p.s. remember to do the etf quiz and get coins and 5usd coupon. a tip for you is that if you don't get 60 points for the quiz, you can exit before the 10th question and redo, so you can use your memory to get 60 points on your subsequent tries. 

bon weekend et bon courage

CPI 7.7% - Turnaround or A Bear Rally?
After the Oct CPI of 7.7%, three major indices all went up, with $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ up 7%, the biggest gain in 3 years. Many Fed officials also expressed that Fed may slow the pace of rate hikes. But Icahn said he is shorting the S&P 500. ----- [TOPIC] Do you think the uptrend will continue after the CPI? Or we should short the dramatic rally? Will Fed pivot after the midterm and CPI? ------ [REWARDS] Join our topic to win at least 50 tiger coins~
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Comments

  • BruceBryant
    2022-11-12
    BruceBryant
    DIA didnt fall a lot. May it has room to pullback??
    • melson
      most likely will pullback and then consolidate in this region
  • WebbBart
    2022-11-12
    WebbBart
    Thanks for your article and ideas.
  • historyiong
    2022-11-13
    historyiong
    As for the trend listed in the pictures, ​$DIA(DIA)$&$SPY(SPY)$ could be consiferable stocks
    • melsonReplyhistoryiong
      🥂✨
    • historyiongReplymelson
      courage is so important for us
    • melsonReplyhistoryiong
      je suis d'accord. bon courage
    • historyiongReplymelson
      yeah, just take the opportunity and get the money at the best of you own
    • melson
      indeed, bear market rallies are fast and furious then they slowly sell down. buy on pullback. late dec or jan market will crash
  • Elky
    2022-11-13
    Elky
    Tks for sharing
  • JohnMitchell
    2022-11-12
    JohnMitchell
    spy looks so good but rose too fast
    • melson
      market oversold and plus short squeeze
  • DonnaMay
    2022-11-15
    DonnaMay
    It's time for the stock market to bottom out, so let's be optimistic.
    • melson
      santa rally will prevail
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