Wed Nov 23
There might be a rally at year-end but yield curves are screaming sell. The following 10yr Treasury 3mo TBill spread says it all.
Take a look at the max inversions and check out the corresponding SPX performance. Note that all recoveries after 2008 were Fed induced. We are in a new world with persistent inflation and yet to be seen massive layoffs. The Fed is refraining from a pivot because it has no choice. The world is heading into a recession/depression. Even when the Fed finally pivots, there will be months if not years of pain ahead. Look at past data. Recall that there is approximately a nine month lag for Fed hikes to trickle into the economy. Hikes started in Mar. The buy side will engage in their usual year-end window dressing. After that, it looks like crap. As for the title, do some due diligence. Your trading account will thank you.
Good trading!
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