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AlfonsoDex

AlfonsoDexLV4 文化虎

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05-30

Disagree on Disney

7 Overvalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Sell Before June 2023

05-23

Love SG Banks

Singapore Bank Stocks Jump With DBS up 2.2%

05-16

OK then, raise the interest rate by 1000 basis pts, destroy the whole US economy in deep dark recession then restart building from scratch again. In this case, we have totally taken inflation out of the equation. Good for investors also, we shall put in fresh money to start the a new bull run from. The lowest point

Why The Fed Should Keep Its Paws Off The Pause Button

04-19

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-19

Last day already, award us the Disney shares

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-18

OK thanks Tiger.. More of such events please

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-17

More vouchers and free stocks please. Thank you

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-16

Love [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-15

OK come on let's win

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-15

Ok

@KYHBKO:Latest CPI ~ inflation better than expected (12 Apr 2023)

04-14

Play and Win.. Still. Got a few more days

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-13

Let's have fun! More vouchers

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-12

Good.. On going for perks.. Good luck everyone

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-11

I want more free shares please

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-10

Totally agree!

Where Will Google Stock Be In 10 Years?

04-10

Got fast👍thanks for improving

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-10

Play play play.. I'm loving it

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-09

Ok

@KYHBKO:Economic Calendar (10 Apr 2023) - CPI updates this week

04-09

Play and win.. Like this kind of game with rewards

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

04-09

Like it but I hope everyone can get a Disney share

#Tiger's Easter egg hunt

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Typically, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>When looking at a number of overvalued blue-chip stocks, “Sell in May and Go away” fits. Typically, blue-chip stocks are generally among the safest stocks to own. These are companies that generate consistent revenue and earnings because their products are generally in demand no matter what’s happening in the economy. But even blue-chip stocks can get overvalued. That appears to be the case now. For a variety of reasons, there are several blue-chip stocks to avoid in this market. Here are seven overvalued blue-chip stocks to sell now. </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Target (TGT)</h2><p>As I write this, many investors may be getting ready to pound the Buy button on the <strong>Target</strong> (NYSE: <strong><u>TGT</u></strong>) stock. The stock is down 14% in the last 30 days. And over the last year, the stock is now down about 11%. All thanks to what appears to be an overreaction to the company’s earnings report. But Target is a dividend king and with the stock trading at a heavy discount, it should hardly be considered one of the overvalued blue-chip stocks, right? Maybe and maybe not.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The immediate pressure on the stock is due to backlash surrounding the company’s recent launch of Pride wear. The company has offered Pride-related merchandise for over 10 years. But this is a different time, as is some of the merchandise. Investors, and Target management, would make a mistake to believe this is simply a case of consumers protesting LGBTQ+ merchandise.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In general, I’m not a fan of a company committing an unforced error. And that’s what I see here. At a time when sales and earnings are under pressure, a boycott of any length and severity would be less than helpful. And don’t forget that Target is still facing problems surrounding theft and organized retail crime. The company said this will affect the company’s profit by $500 million compared to 2022.  </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Anheuser-Busch (BUD) </h2><p>Another company facing a boycott is <strong>Anheuser-Busch </strong>(NYSE:<strong><u>BUD</u></strong>). By now the reasons are all too familiar. BUD stock is down 13% in the last month and that has wiped out virtually all of the stock’s gains in the last 12 months. This is significant because prior to the recent controversy, Anheuser-Busch was managing to reverse what was a five-year downtrend for the stock.   Like I said of Target above, this is an unforced error that the company doesn’t need at a time when revenue and earnings are precious. However, I do see a light at the end of the tunnel for the company.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Bud Light remains the official light beer of the National Football League. That means the brand will be front and center in consumer’s living rooms and at stadiums throughout the country in less than 90 days. But until then, it could be tough sledding for BUD stock which did receive a downgrade from HSBC after its May earnings report.  </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Disney (DIS) </h2><p>The<strong> Disney</strong> (NYSE:<strong><u>DIS</u></strong>) stock is currently trading near the low it reached at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. And that’s despite the return of Bob Iger as the company’s CEO. The company’s Disney+ streaming business lost four million subscribers in the most recent quarter. Consumers are still feeling the pinch of prices at the company’s theme parks. And the company is still mired in a political battle with Florida governor Ron DeSantis.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Eventually, Disney is likely to be just fine. And you could make a case to jump on DIS stock at a hefty discount now. But there are better stocks for investors and that’s why Disney still looks like one of the blue-chip stocks to avoid.  </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">American Express (AXP) </h2><p>The next stock on this list of overvalued blue-chip stocks is <strong>American Express </strong>(NYSE:<strong><u>AXP</u></strong>). Once again, by some fundamental and technical indicators, American Express looks like a value. But looking at the company’s last earnings report, there are some reasons for concern. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For the second consecutive quarter, AmEx delivered earnings that were lower from the prior year. And since the earnings report, several analysts have lowered their price targets on AXP stock. At least one analyst issued a downgrade on the stock as well. In this day and age, it’s very uncommon for a blue-chip stock like American Express to get a Sell rating, but that’s what happened here. The likely issue is that the U.S. is still, by most accounts, heading for a recession. And with consumers overextended on their credit cards the company could be looking at charge-offs. The good news for investors is that AXP stock typically performs well out of recessions. But there is likely to be downside risk in the near term.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Cardinal Health (CAH) </h2><p><strong>Cardinal Health </strong>(NYSE:<strong><u>CAH</u></strong>) is the first of the stocks on this list to have at least a fundamental case for being overvalued. The company is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48x. That combined with the CAH stock trading at its 52-week high and you have a combination that generally points to a correction. That is unless the company has a near-term catalyst. The problem for Cardinal Health is that doesn’t appear to be the case. The ongoing concern for the company is shrinking margins. Cardinal Health already operates on tight margins, and the company is facing more competition.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">CAH stock is up nearly 5% in the last month. But in the week ending May 25, 2023 the stock is down just over 1%. Since the last earnings report, several analysts have boosted their price targets on Cardinal Health. But the overall consensus is a Hold and at least one analyst has retained a Sell rating on the stock.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Campbell Soup (CPB) </h2><p>In March, <strong>Campbell Soup</strong> (NYSE:<strong><u>CPB</u></strong>) delivered a stellar earnings report. It not only beat estimates on the top and bottom line, but both numbers were higher on a year-over-year basis as well. At a time when investors were looking for green shoots wherever they can find them, CPB stock shot higher.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But in the last month, that good feeling has taken a back seat to macroeconomic concerns. Campbell’s Soup will always be a staple play. But it’s also largely a cyclical play. Specifically, the country is moving out of “soup season.” Historically the current and following quarter are the company’s weakest in terms of revenue and earnings. And although the company’s dividend has a respectable yield of around 2.8%, it hasn’t increased the dividend in several years. That means that there’s very little to act as a catalyst for CPB stock. And with short interest up about 4.75% in the last month, it’s a good idea to step away from the stock for now</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">AT&amp;T (T) </h2><p>The last of the overvalued blue-chip stocks on this list is <strong>AT&amp;T</strong> (NYSE:<strong><u>T</u></strong>). And like several other names on this list, at first glance, T stock doesn’t look overvalued at all. But the problem for AT&amp;T comes down to debt.  One of the most appealing aspects of T stock is its dividend. But the company missed on free cash flow expectations by $1.5 billion. That means that the company had to fund its most recent dividend with debt. And the company’s debt, which was starting to go down, has started to grow again on a sequential basis. That debt will only get more expensive to refinance.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It would help if the company was growing revenue and earnings. It’s not. Earnings have been down year-over-year for the last year. And revenue is basically flat and also down year-over-year. I can understand if some investors look at T stock around $15 and think that it’s too good to be true. I would encourage them to go with that thought because with no growth catalysts on the horizon, T stock may be a yield trap in the making.  </p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Overvalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Sell Before June 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Overvalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Sell Before June 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-29 23:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/05/7-overvalued-blue-chip-stocks-sell-before-june-2023/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When looking at a number of overvalued blue-chip stocks, “Sell in May and Go away” fits. Typically, blue-chip stocks are generally among the safest stocks to own. These are companies that generate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/05/7-overvalued-blue-chip-stocks-sell-before-june-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"美国电话电报","AXP":"美国运通","CPB":"康宝浓汤","TGT":"塔吉特","BUD":"百威英博","CAH":"卡迪纳医药","DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/05/7-overvalued-blue-chip-stocks-sell-before-june-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101756660","content_text":"When looking at a number of overvalued blue-chip stocks, “Sell in May and Go away” fits. Typically, blue-chip stocks are generally among the safest stocks to own. These are companies that generate consistent revenue and earnings because their products are generally in demand no matter what’s happening in the economy. But even blue-chip stocks can get overvalued. That appears to be the case now. For a variety of reasons, there are several blue-chip stocks to avoid in this market. Here are seven overvalued blue-chip stocks to sell now. Target (TGT)As I write this, many investors may be getting ready to pound the Buy button on the Target (NYSE: TGT) stock. The stock is down 14% in the last 30 days. And over the last year, the stock is now down about 11%. All thanks to what appears to be an overreaction to the company’s earnings report. But Target is a dividend king and with the stock trading at a heavy discount, it should hardly be considered one of the overvalued blue-chip stocks, right? Maybe and maybe not.  The immediate pressure on the stock is due to backlash surrounding the company’s recent launch of Pride wear. The company has offered Pride-related merchandise for over 10 years. But this is a different time, as is some of the merchandise. Investors, and Target management, would make a mistake to believe this is simply a case of consumers protesting LGBTQ+ merchandise.  In general, I’m not a fan of a company committing an unforced error. And that’s what I see here. At a time when sales and earnings are under pressure, a boycott of any length and severity would be less than helpful. And don’t forget that Target is still facing problems surrounding theft and organized retail crime. The company said this will affect the company’s profit by $500 million compared to 2022.  Anheuser-Busch (BUD) Another company facing a boycott is Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD). By now the reasons are all too familiar. BUD stock is down 13% in the last month and that has wiped out virtually all of the stock’s gains in the last 12 months. This is significant because prior to the recent controversy, Anheuser-Busch was managing to reverse what was a five-year downtrend for the stock.   Like I said of Target above, this is an unforced error that the company doesn’t need at a time when revenue and earnings are precious. However, I do see a light at the end of the tunnel for the company.  Bud Light remains the official light beer of the National Football League. That means the brand will be front and center in consumer’s living rooms and at stadiums throughout the country in less than 90 days. But until then, it could be tough sledding for BUD stock which did receive a downgrade from HSBC after its May earnings report.  Disney (DIS) The Disney (NYSE:DIS) stock is currently trading near the low it reached at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. And that’s despite the return of Bob Iger as the company’s CEO. The company’s Disney+ streaming business lost four million subscribers in the most recent quarter. Consumers are still feeling the pinch of prices at the company’s theme parks. And the company is still mired in a political battle with Florida governor Ron DeSantis.  Eventually, Disney is likely to be just fine. And you could make a case to jump on DIS stock at a hefty discount now. But there are better stocks for investors and that’s why Disney still looks like one of the blue-chip stocks to avoid.  American Express (AXP) The next stock on this list of overvalued blue-chip stocks is American Express (NYSE:AXP). Once again, by some fundamental and technical indicators, American Express looks like a value. But looking at the company’s last earnings report, there are some reasons for concern. For the second consecutive quarter, AmEx delivered earnings that were lower from the prior year. And since the earnings report, several analysts have lowered their price targets on AXP stock. At least one analyst issued a downgrade on the stock as well. In this day and age, it’s very uncommon for a blue-chip stock like American Express to get a Sell rating, but that’s what happened here. The likely issue is that the U.S. is still, by most accounts, heading for a recession. And with consumers overextended on their credit cards the company could be looking at charge-offs. The good news for investors is that AXP stock typically performs well out of recessions. But there is likely to be downside risk in the near term.Cardinal Health (CAH) Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH) is the first of the stocks on this list to have at least a fundamental case for being overvalued. The company is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48x. That combined with the CAH stock trading at its 52-week high and you have a combination that generally points to a correction. That is unless the company has a near-term catalyst. The problem for Cardinal Health is that doesn’t appear to be the case. The ongoing concern for the company is shrinking margins. Cardinal Health already operates on tight margins, and the company is facing more competition.  CAH stock is up nearly 5% in the last month. But in the week ending May 25, 2023 the stock is down just over 1%. Since the last earnings report, several analysts have boosted their price targets on Cardinal Health. But the overall consensus is a Hold and at least one analyst has retained a Sell rating on the stock.Campbell Soup (CPB) In March, Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) delivered a stellar earnings report. It not only beat estimates on the top and bottom line, but both numbers were higher on a year-over-year basis as well. At a time when investors were looking for green shoots wherever they can find them, CPB stock shot higher.  But in the last month, that good feeling has taken a back seat to macroeconomic concerns. Campbell’s Soup will always be a staple play. But it’s also largely a cyclical play. Specifically, the country is moving out of “soup season.” Historically the current and following quarter are the company’s weakest in terms of revenue and earnings. And although the company’s dividend has a respectable yield of around 2.8%, it hasn’t increased the dividend in several years. That means that there’s very little to act as a catalyst for CPB stock. And with short interest up about 4.75% in the last month, it’s a good idea to step away from the stock for nowAT&T (T) The last of the overvalued blue-chip stocks on this list is AT&T (NYSE:T). And like several other names on this list, at first glance, T stock doesn’t look overvalued at all. But the problem for AT&T comes down to debt.  One of the most appealing aspects of T stock is its dividend. But the company missed on free cash flow expectations by $1.5 billion. That means that the company had to fund its most recent dividend with debt. And the company’s debt, which was starting to go down, has started to grow again on a sequential basis. That debt will only get more expensive to refinance.  It would help if the company was growing revenue and earnings. It’s not. Earnings have been down year-over-year for the last year. And revenue is basically flat and also down year-over-year. I can understand if some investors look at T stock around $15 and think that it’s too good to be true. I would encourage them to go with that thought because with no growth catalysts on the horizon, T stock may be a yield trap in the making.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970411466,"gmtCreate":1684809920555,"gmtModify":1684809925340,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Love SG Banks","listText":"Love SG Banks","text":"Love SG Banks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9970411466","repostId":"1129755486","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129755486","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1684808015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129755486?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-23 10:13","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Bank Stocks Jump With DBS up 2.2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129755486","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Singapore bank stocks jump in morning trading. DBS rose 2.2%; UOB rose 1.2%;  OCBC rose 0.3%.Singapo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Singapore bank stocks jump in morning trading. DBS rose 2.2%; UOB rose 1.2%;  OCBC rose 0.3%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c73c4e64ae27890359f80085bdd204\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"192\"/></p><p>Singapore&#39;s biggest bank DBS Group on Monday said it expects to lift annual earnings to more than S$10 billion ($7.55 billion) within the next three to five years, after it posted a record first-quarter profit earlier this month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DBS, which is also Southeast Asia&#39;s largest lender by assets, premised the projection on its digital transformation and its strong balance sheet and capital, among other factors, it said at an investor day presentation.</p><p>The forecast is 22% higher than the S$8.19 billion annual net profit it achieved in 2022.</p><p>DBS also expects a return on equity (ROE) of between 15% and 17% in the medium term and for its common equity tier one ratio, a measure of a bank&#39;s resilience, to be in a range of 12.5% to 13.5%, according to the presentation slides.</p><p>Its ROE was 15% last year, while its CET1 ratio was 14.6%, according to its 2022 annual report.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Bank Stocks Jump With DBS up 2.2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Bank Stocks Jump With DBS up 2.2%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-23 10:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Singapore bank stocks jump in morning trading. DBS rose 2.2%; UOB rose 1.2%;  OCBC rose 0.3%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c73c4e64ae27890359f80085bdd204\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"192\"/></p><p>Singapore&#39;s biggest bank DBS Group on Monday said it expects to lift annual earnings to more than S$10 billion ($7.55 billion) within the next three to five years, after it posted a record first-quarter profit earlier this month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">DBS, which is also Southeast Asia&#39;s largest lender by assets, premised the projection on its digital transformation and its strong balance sheet and capital, among other factors, it said at an investor day presentation.</p><p>The forecast is 22% higher than the S$8.19 billion annual net profit it achieved in 2022.</p><p>DBS also expects a return on equity (ROE) of between 15% and 17% in the medium term and for its common equity tier one ratio, a measure of a bank&#39;s resilience, to be in a range of 12.5% to 13.5%, according to the presentation slides.</p><p>Its ROE was 15% last year, while its CET1 ratio was 14.6%, according to its 2022 annual report.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"O39.SI":"华侨银行","U11.SI":"大华银行","D05.SI":"星展集团控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129755486","content_text":"Singapore bank stocks jump in morning trading. DBS rose 2.2%; UOB rose 1.2%;  OCBC rose 0.3%.Singapore's biggest bank DBS Group on Monday said it expects to lift annual earnings to more than S$10 billion ($7.55 billion) within the next three to five years, after it posted a record first-quarter profit earlier this month.DBS, which is also Southeast Asia's largest lender by assets, premised the projection on its digital transformation and its strong balance sheet and capital, among other factors, it said at an investor day presentation.The forecast is 22% higher than the S$8.19 billion annual net profit it achieved in 2022.DBS also expects a return on equity (ROE) of between 15% and 17% in the medium term and for its common equity tier one ratio, a measure of a bank's resilience, to be in a range of 12.5% to 13.5%, according to the presentation slides.Its ROE was 15% last year, while its CET1 ratio was 14.6%, according to its 2022 annual report.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970179440,"gmtCreate":1684214170981,"gmtModify":1684214977266,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK then, raise the interest rate by 1000 basis pts, destroy the whole US economy in deep dark recession&nbsp;then restart building from scratch again. In this case, we have totally taken inflation out of the equation. Good for investors also, we shall put in fresh money to start the a new bull run from. The lowest point&nbsp;","listText":"OK then, raise the interest rate by 1000 basis pts, destroy the whole US economy in deep dark recession&nbsp;then restart building from scratch again. In this case, we have totally taken inflation out of the equation. Good for investors also, we shall put in fresh money to start the a new bull run from. The lowest point&nbsp;","text":"OK then, raise the interest rate by 1000 basis pts, destroy the whole US economy in deep dark recession then restart building from scratch again. In this case, we have totally taken inflation out of the equation. Good for investors also, we shall put in fresh money to start the a new bull run from. The lowest point","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9970179440","repostId":"2335818761","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2335818761","pubTimestamp":1684195263,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2335818761?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-16 08:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Fed Should Keep Its Paws Off The Pause Button","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2335818761","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Right now the prospects for inflation are driving everything in markets. Markets are now, as they ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Right now the prospects for inflation are driving everything in markets. Markets are now, as they have been since the start of the Fed tightening, eager for the Fed to stop tightening and for business to return to normal. Banking sector problems have added to these concerns. There has been, from the start of this inflation process, a certain denial that inflation was real, that it would last, and even that it was dangerous. Not only do markets seem to not appreciate the risks but the Federal Reserve seems to have set them aside as well for its own reasons and perhaps reasons that it has come subsequently to regret.</p><p>There are several threads of commentary that weave through the various discussions of why the Federal Reserve should stop raising rates. Some hold that it should not even have been raising rates at all. I find this a curious argument. Clearly, inflation is high, and inflation clearly has been progressing at a pace well above the level of interest rates. Historically we look at inflation &#39;higher than interest rates&#39; as a period of accommodative monetary policy, not a period with restrictive monetary policy that we would expect to eventually get inflation under control.</p><p>Implicit in the view of people who are looking for the Fed to stop hiking rates soon and start cutting them is the view that inflation will go down on its own when it&#39;s time. This is an interesting idea but it&#39;s an idea without any historic precedent… or merit.</p><p>Nonetheless, we have heard both Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz and Senate Banking Committee member Elizabeth Warren opine the same argument that the Fed should not be raising rates because the Fed is confused about the cause of inflation. They argue that inflation is caused by supply shocks and by the war in Ukraine and that monetary policy will have no impact on these things. While there is certainly some merit to parts of these arguments, they seem to miss the point: supply shocks and the war may have started inflation, but now inflation has taken on a life of its own and policy needs to deal with it, and reel it in, not ignore it.</p><p>Regardless of what started the inflation process, inflation is now in gear and it&#39;s the job of slowing inflation and controlling it that monetary policy must attend to. At this point it doesn&#39;t matter what started the inflation; what matters is to stop it and to contain people&#39;s perceptions of it and to reel back people&#39;s inflation expectations and their extrapolation of continuing price increases in the future.</p><p><strong>Chart 1</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb451654cf382f8e4920022c5711f198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>&#34;Demand&#34; Vs &#34;Supply&#34; Inflation (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)</p><p>Those who think that inflation continues to be caused by the war in Ukraine or by supply chain problems need to explain Chart 1 to me. Chart 1 shows that PPI inflation, which is the inflation gauge closest to production, has inflation falling sharply. On the other hand, the CPI which is the inflation rate experienced by consumers, and is linked to demand is the inflation rate that is higher and sticky. If inflation is caused by the supply side we would expect to see this result flipped. We&#39;d expect to see PPI inflation higher and CPI inflation lower. Instead, what we see is the situation that I described above which is where inflation began being triggered by excess fiscal policy, excess monetary policy, supply shocks, and the war in Ukraine and now these factors have combined to put something in motion that needs to be stopped. Clearly, monetary policy has a purpose and a role.</p><p>There&#39;s another broad thread about that policy that argues that policy should do the least damage possible to the economy and should seek a soft landing. Some economists look back at the 1969-1970 recession and do not consider it a recession. Alan Blinder, former vice chair at the Federal Reserve, has referred to it as a sort of recessionette arguing that output barely fell by more than 1/2 of a percentage point in that recession; he maintains that it was some sort of a soft landing - although the unemployment rate did rise by 2.6 percentage points. I view the 1969-70 recession very differently. I see it as the gateway to the onset of the inflation problem. It is the first recession of this period, but not the first episode in which the Fed raised interest rates only to back off and find inflation was higher after it raised rates. The Fed did this in the mid-1960s while avoiding a recession altogether. They did it again in 1970 and then they did it again in the 1973-75 recession. No one would call the 1973-75 recession a soft landing. However, like the 1969-70 recession it&#39;s a recession in which the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and then cut them early leaving the inflation rate higher at the end of the recession than it was before the recession began. These recession episodes sowed the seeds of an inflation that grew culminating in the draconian monetary policy of the 1980s. Now, some want to do it again…</p><p>When I hear economists talk about soft landings and when I look back at history at the sorts of things that occurred during periods when they label episodes as soft landings, I get very worried about what will happen in this episode if the Federal Reserve shoots for a soft landing. Inflation already is far too high, and we have no recession. Were we to have a recession where the Fed cut interest rates early and did not keep the pressure on, I would certainly not want to have the economy emerge from this recession with the inflation rate even higher than what it is now. And this is the problem with the soft-landing crowd. They seem to be unconcerned by such a possibility.</p><p>When the Fed adopted its new framework agreement it shifted to aiming at an average inflation target, it prioritized full employment, and, in some sense, it downgraded its 2% inflation target by saying it was going to allow inflation to overshoot and that it would not raise interest rates until the economy had reached maximum employment. These changes are the facts underlying the framework agreement that governed the conduct of monetary policy before and after COVID struck. They set the Fed on a new and different path that it had never been on before. The Fed let inflation move over its 2% target and stay over its target for over a year before it began to raise rates at all - a stunning decision.</p><p>The question now is what does the Fed think it should be doing? Does it still embrace its new framework statement? If so, does that mean that if the unemployment rate rises the Fed will back off on rate hikes? Or has the Fed learned a lesson about prioritizing full employment and does it realize that inflation has become a much more severe problem and needs to be prioritized? We often seem to hear that line of thought from the Fed Chairman and from other Federal Reserve officials, but they also say that in tandem arguing that they need to make sure they do not do undue damage to the economy. That caveat muddies the water. In terms of the Fed&#39;s intentions, I have to say I am more confused than I ever have been about what the Fed really plans to do. And I am not sure that people who are pushing for and endorsing the soft landing understand the extent to which a soft landing will interfere with making inflation progress.</p><p><strong><em>No one knows what inflation is going to do in the period ahead.</em></strong> At one of the recent annual meetings sponsored by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole Wyoming, it was established that none of the widely followed inflation theories works all the time. Various theories seem to work at various times and then they breakdown. However, we know in the past when we&#39;ve had inflation and when the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and there has been a recession the inflation rate has generally come down if the Federal Reserve did not ease interest rates too quickly in the recession itself or early in the recovery.</p><p>Charts document that inflation progress is slow.</p><p><strong>Chart 2</strong></p><p>CPI inflation progress is slow</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a72e71eedbba3f71dbc58446beea7d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\"/></p><p>Very slow inflation progress (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)</p><p>Chart two shows the progress of inflation since July 2022. Headline inflation has come down more rapidly, while core inflation has declined very little. However, there may be reason to think that current inflation progress has stepped up a little bit more.</p><p><strong>Chart 3</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0275d3f88b667785a539c29f8a15e41b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\"/></p><p>3-Month annualized inflation (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)</p><p>Chart 3 shows a short-term point of view. This chart emphasizes what inflation is doing in the near term rather than what the year over year pace is since it focuses on annualized inflation rates over the three-month periods. Here we see three-month inflation in the core and headlines of the CPI were running at a pace of nearly 10%, however, by December 2022, those inflation rates had come down to the 3% to 4% range. However, since then CPI core inflation over three months has flattened out at about 5% while the headline firmed and it&#39;s now back at a pace of around 3.2%.</p><p>This chart gives us a little bit more optimism about making progress on inflation. The Federal Reserve doesn&#39;t usually look at shorter-term inflation rates because they&#39;re too volatile. However, when we look at a longer-term inflation rate, what you can see from this chart is an inflation rate that spans the July 22 to April 23 period, and is going to incorporate some high inflation periods in July and August of 2022 along with some lower inflation periods that are more recent. Are we distorting the picture of inflation progress by mixing these two very different trends together?</p><p>Well… that&#39;s something to be open-minded about. The other thing to remember is that while the core inflation rate has dropped by nearly half, measuring inflation at its three-month pace it has still only dropped to 5% not to 2% - free of the &#39;contamination&#39; of averaging. And from December 2022 the core inflation rate not only has been stable but it has actually picked up slightly. Inflation options need to consider all these trends.</p><p>These trends point to more good news in the making and that is simply to recognize that as we move ahead calculating year over year inflation rates the high inflation rates from early 2022 are going to fall out of the calculation and that means that the year-over-year inflation rates are going to fall faster than they have been falling. And that&#39;s good news.</p><p>As I mentioned earlier, we can&#39;t be sure what inflation is going to do in the period ahead this means monetary policy wants to be careful; it does not want to assume that progress is going to continue at a strong pace nor does it want to think if progress is slow that the pace can&#39;t speed up either. Future policy needs to have some flexibility but it also needs to be realistic in what it can do and what it can expect.</p><p>One important way to look at inflation is to recognize that year-over-year inflation is nothing more than the multiplied one-month percentage changes of the last 12 months. We currently have CPI data through April; at the time of the May inflation report, we&#39;ll have 11 of the same month-to-month changes that the April report has. May will drop the (known) oldest month-to-month change and it will add a new one (unknown) for the month of May. Mechanically that&#39;s why the year of inflation rate doesn&#39;t change very much from month-to-month. But we can see by looking at these monthly inflation data that we are losing that they are going to be relatively high numbers whereas the inflation numbers we&#39;re going to be gaining - if they are in keeping with the recent monthly trends we&#39;ve had - are going to be much lower. So that&#39;s grounds for optimism and getting the year-over-year inflation rate lower. But are we going to get it low enough? Based on current trends the answer seems to be &#39;no.&#39; And this is why I caution the Fed not to be too quick to pause. One of the worst things that monetary policy can do is to go through stop-go phases. Moves like that confuse markets because they have a harder time figuring out the speed at which monetary policy will progress in the future. So, let&#39;s look at these month-to-month inflation changes and see what we can learn about what inflation is doing now.</p><p><strong>Chart 4</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec08e967b9d613fb0e4dc3ae3bb4ce0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p>Monthly frequency distribution of inflation (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)</p><p>Chart four shows <em>frequency distributions</em> of monthly CPI percentage changes. They make the case that inflation is not yet under enough control for the Fed to slow its pace of tightening. This is a chart of the frequency distribution of monthly headline and core inflation changes for two different periods. The recent period spans the most recent 24 months. The other period is the benchmark 4 years before COVID struck during which inflation was low. The point of this chart is to look at the distribution or monthly changes in inflation during a period when inflation was low and compare it to the distribution that we have currently to see if the distribution of price changes for the core or headline CPI is beginning to look the way they have looked in the past during a broad period of price stability.</p><p>The answer here is a rousing &#39;no.&#39; The CPI core and the headline for the most recent 24 months show an extended frequency distribution to the right indicating that they have experienced some extreme the month-to-month changes in the headline and in the core CPI. During the four years of price stability before COVID struck we see the purple and the green series do not have extended frequency distributions to the right. The highest core increase during that four-year period was a gain of 0.3% month-to-month while the highest headline increase (the green series) was 0.5% month-to-month. Notice also during the period of price stability both the core and the headline series had observations at zero or even observations that were negative and there have been none of those over the past 24 months.</p><p>These frequency distributions strongly suggest that we have not yet gotten back to a point of price stability and that, if we are going to get there, we&#39;ll have to have the period ahead appearing more like it was in the years prior to Covid.</p><p><strong>Chart 5</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f0411b8b531112a2a5259193420116\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"/></p><p>Inflation density functions (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)</p><p>If you don&#39;t find the frequency distribution charts compelling or if you find them confusing, I have also included above the density charts for the various distributions. The density charts add up the cumulative frequencies from the lowest percentage increases to the highest going from left to right. For example, the purple line which is for core inflation shows us that during the period of price stability 95.8% of the core observations we&#39;re 0.2% per month or lower- WOW! The headline CPI had a little more gradualness to it. Still, 58% of its month-to-month percent changes were a 0.1% or lower. It did that over four years, and had one month-to-month gain as large as 0.5% on the month.</p><p>When we compare these two distributions to what we see over the last 24 months, there is no comparison as the 24-month distributions stretch well into much higher month-to-month percent changes.</p><p>One obvious criticism here is that I&#39;m looking at 24-months which is a long period that has some of the higher monthly percent changes involved dating back to the time when inflation was more virulent. And I did that to try to gain more observations to look at in a 24-month period instead of just a 12-month period.</p><p><strong>Chart 6</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6be8a1fd6b1313ba36a3a4a120d9e083\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"/></p><p>frequency distribution for last 12-months (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)</p><p>To assuage that criticism… Chart 6 shows the frequency distribution for the last 12 months for both the headline and the core. Both the headline in the core measures have some extreme observations that are still in the distribution and while they both have their modal (or, most frequent observation) at 0.4% (for the core the distribution is bimodal with 0.4% and 0.3% more frequent). That&#39;s still far too high for a 2% annual target. The distributions are still far too skewed to the right and only the headline has observations below 0.3% monthly. The Fed&#39;s inflation target is 2% and a steady diet of increases of 0.2% per month will set the annual rate for inflation at 2.4%. In CPI terms that gain is comparable to 2% on the PCE that the Fed targets since the CPI runs hotter than the PCE. However, the core doesn&#39;t have any increases that small over the last 12 months (the smallest is 0.3% or 3.7% annualized!).</p><h2>The facts argue for a stricter Fed, not a looser one</h2><p>My conclusion is that the facts argue for a stricter Fed not for a looser Fed, and not for a Fed that&#39;s going to take us into a pause early and hopes to glide into a soft landing on the further hope that in the soft landing inflation will continue to be reduced. History tells us that the world doesn&#39;t normally work that way. But now that we have had high inflation we know that inflation expectations are elevated. And we can see from the distribution of monthly changes that while we&#39;ve made some progress on inflation, <em>we are still not close to generating the kind of increases month-in and month-out that are going to give us the kind of price discipline that we seek</em>.</p><p>Everything that we know about economics suggests that we need to keep more pressure on the economy, on producers, and on consumers to reduce demand pressures and reduce prices to the Fed&#39;s target pace of 2% on the PCE.</p><p>This analysis suggests that if the Fed loosens policy early inflation will again get out of control and while the markets may like the Fed backing off at least initially - if this analysis is correct - and if it turns out that inflation remains stubborn or backtracks, market euphoria will be short-lived and the <em>next</em> round of pain would be devastating.</p><h2>Catch-22</h2><p>So there&#39;s a little bit of Joseph Heller in all of this. Joseph Heller wrote the book &#34;Catch-22,&#34; which is a wonderful book that I highly recommend. The title of the book stems from a hypothetical army regulation that says that if you&#39;re crazy you can get a deferment to get out of your military service. However, there&#39;s a catch. And that catch, known as catch-22, is that if you request to be let out of your military service on the basis that you&#39;re crazy, then you&#39;re sane enough to know that you&#39;re really not crazy and the clause no longer applies to you.</p><p>I see this same sort of self-undermining logic in the belief that a soft-landing is the right course of action. Many want the economy to go back to normal and there was a long period of price stability before Covid. Many people simply assume that if the Fed just lets interest rates go back down to normal, inflation will go back to normal and everything will be fine and &#39;normal.&#39; But the world has changed. COVID changed the world and what&#39;s normal has changed too.</p><p>The supply chains shifted. Labor market participation rates have shifted. And, most of all, inflation has shifted and inflation psychology has shifted. There is no reason to think anything is going to go back to the way it was because we&#39;re just not there anymore. That world, that environment, those conditions, no longer exist.</p><h2>I worry… and you should, too</h2><p>This is why I worry about the Fed not having staying power and not raising rates enough. I believe it has already damaged its reputation by denying inflation and by procrastinating on needed policy moves that let inflation climb even higher. I don&#39;t know what will happen if it makes that same mistake again with inflation already this high. And this is not just simply a concern about the Fed. It&#39;s also a concern about what it will mean for Fed policy, and for markets: for the bond market, for stocks, for the dollar, for gold, for commodities, and for everything. Fed policy desperately needs to restore price stability. Financial policy needs an anchor. The Fed can&#39;t pull that anchor up and trust that the currents will take us where it wants us to go. Every investor needs to be aware of this risk.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Fed Should Keep Its Paws Off The Pause Button</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Fed Should Keep Its Paws Off The Pause Button\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-16 08:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4604680-why-the-fed-should-keep-its-paws-off-the-pause-button><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Right now the prospects for inflation are driving everything in markets. Markets are now, as they have been since the start of the Fed tightening, eager for the Fed to stop tightening and for business...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4604680-why-the-fed-should-keep-its-paws-off-the-pause-button\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"标普500",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"纳斯达克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4604680-why-the-fed-should-keep-its-paws-off-the-pause-button","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2335818761","content_text":"Right now the prospects for inflation are driving everything in markets. Markets are now, as they have been since the start of the Fed tightening, eager for the Fed to stop tightening and for business to return to normal. Banking sector problems have added to these concerns. There has been, from the start of this inflation process, a certain denial that inflation was real, that it would last, and even that it was dangerous. Not only do markets seem to not appreciate the risks but the Federal Reserve seems to have set them aside as well for its own reasons and perhaps reasons that it has come subsequently to regret.There are several threads of commentary that weave through the various discussions of why the Federal Reserve should stop raising rates. Some hold that it should not even have been raising rates at all. I find this a curious argument. Clearly, inflation is high, and inflation clearly has been progressing at a pace well above the level of interest rates. Historically we look at inflation 'higher than interest rates' as a period of accommodative monetary policy, not a period with restrictive monetary policy that we would expect to eventually get inflation under control.Implicit in the view of people who are looking for the Fed to stop hiking rates soon and start cutting them is the view that inflation will go down on its own when it's time. This is an interesting idea but it's an idea without any historic precedent… or merit.Nonetheless, we have heard both Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz and Senate Banking Committee member Elizabeth Warren opine the same argument that the Fed should not be raising rates because the Fed is confused about the cause of inflation. They argue that inflation is caused by supply shocks and by the war in Ukraine and that monetary policy will have no impact on these things. While there is certainly some merit to parts of these arguments, they seem to miss the point: supply shocks and the war may have started inflation, but now inflation has taken on a life of its own and policy needs to deal with it, and reel it in, not ignore it.Regardless of what started the inflation process, inflation is now in gear and it's the job of slowing inflation and controlling it that monetary policy must attend to. At this point it doesn't matter what started the inflation; what matters is to stop it and to contain people's perceptions of it and to reel back people's inflation expectations and their extrapolation of continuing price increases in the future.Chart 1\"Demand\" Vs \"Supply\" Inflation (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)Those who think that inflation continues to be caused by the war in Ukraine or by supply chain problems need to explain Chart 1 to me. Chart 1 shows that PPI inflation, which is the inflation gauge closest to production, has inflation falling sharply. On the other hand, the CPI which is the inflation rate experienced by consumers, and is linked to demand is the inflation rate that is higher and sticky. If inflation is caused by the supply side we would expect to see this result flipped. We'd expect to see PPI inflation higher and CPI inflation lower. Instead, what we see is the situation that I described above which is where inflation began being triggered by excess fiscal policy, excess monetary policy, supply shocks, and the war in Ukraine and now these factors have combined to put something in motion that needs to be stopped. Clearly, monetary policy has a purpose and a role.There's another broad thread about that policy that argues that policy should do the least damage possible to the economy and should seek a soft landing. Some economists look back at the 1969-1970 recession and do not consider it a recession. Alan Blinder, former vice chair at the Federal Reserve, has referred to it as a sort of recessionette arguing that output barely fell by more than 1/2 of a percentage point in that recession; he maintains that it was some sort of a soft landing - although the unemployment rate did rise by 2.6 percentage points. I view the 1969-70 recession very differently. I see it as the gateway to the onset of the inflation problem. It is the first recession of this period, but not the first episode in which the Fed raised interest rates only to back off and find inflation was higher after it raised rates. The Fed did this in the mid-1960s while avoiding a recession altogether. They did it again in 1970 and then they did it again in the 1973-75 recession. No one would call the 1973-75 recession a soft landing. However, like the 1969-70 recession it's a recession in which the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and then cut them early leaving the inflation rate higher at the end of the recession than it was before the recession began. These recession episodes sowed the seeds of an inflation that grew culminating in the draconian monetary policy of the 1980s. Now, some want to do it again…When I hear economists talk about soft landings and when I look back at history at the sorts of things that occurred during periods when they label episodes as soft landings, I get very worried about what will happen in this episode if the Federal Reserve shoots for a soft landing. Inflation already is far too high, and we have no recession. Were we to have a recession where the Fed cut interest rates early and did not keep the pressure on, I would certainly not want to have the economy emerge from this recession with the inflation rate even higher than what it is now. And this is the problem with the soft-landing crowd. They seem to be unconcerned by such a possibility.When the Fed adopted its new framework agreement it shifted to aiming at an average inflation target, it prioritized full employment, and, in some sense, it downgraded its 2% inflation target by saying it was going to allow inflation to overshoot and that it would not raise interest rates until the economy had reached maximum employment. These changes are the facts underlying the framework agreement that governed the conduct of monetary policy before and after COVID struck. They set the Fed on a new and different path that it had never been on before. The Fed let inflation move over its 2% target and stay over its target for over a year before it began to raise rates at all - a stunning decision.The question now is what does the Fed think it should be doing? Does it still embrace its new framework statement? If so, does that mean that if the unemployment rate rises the Fed will back off on rate hikes? Or has the Fed learned a lesson about prioritizing full employment and does it realize that inflation has become a much more severe problem and needs to be prioritized? We often seem to hear that line of thought from the Fed Chairman and from other Federal Reserve officials, but they also say that in tandem arguing that they need to make sure they do not do undue damage to the economy. That caveat muddies the water. In terms of the Fed's intentions, I have to say I am more confused than I ever have been about what the Fed really plans to do. And I am not sure that people who are pushing for and endorsing the soft landing understand the extent to which a soft landing will interfere with making inflation progress.No one knows what inflation is going to do in the period ahead. At one of the recent annual meetings sponsored by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole Wyoming, it was established that none of the widely followed inflation theories works all the time. Various theories seem to work at various times and then they breakdown. However, we know in the past when we've had inflation and when the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and there has been a recession the inflation rate has generally come down if the Federal Reserve did not ease interest rates too quickly in the recession itself or early in the recovery.Charts document that inflation progress is slow.Chart 2CPI inflation progress is slowVery slow inflation progress (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)Chart two shows the progress of inflation since July 2022. Headline inflation has come down more rapidly, while core inflation has declined very little. However, there may be reason to think that current inflation progress has stepped up a little bit more.Chart 33-Month annualized inflation (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)Chart 3 shows a short-term point of view. This chart emphasizes what inflation is doing in the near term rather than what the year over year pace is since it focuses on annualized inflation rates over the three-month periods. Here we see three-month inflation in the core and headlines of the CPI were running at a pace of nearly 10%, however, by December 2022, those inflation rates had come down to the 3% to 4% range. However, since then CPI core inflation over three months has flattened out at about 5% while the headline firmed and it's now back at a pace of around 3.2%.This chart gives us a little bit more optimism about making progress on inflation. The Federal Reserve doesn't usually look at shorter-term inflation rates because they're too volatile. However, when we look at a longer-term inflation rate, what you can see from this chart is an inflation rate that spans the July 22 to April 23 period, and is going to incorporate some high inflation periods in July and August of 2022 along with some lower inflation periods that are more recent. Are we distorting the picture of inflation progress by mixing these two very different trends together?Well… that's something to be open-minded about. The other thing to remember is that while the core inflation rate has dropped by nearly half, measuring inflation at its three-month pace it has still only dropped to 5% not to 2% - free of the 'contamination' of averaging. And from December 2022 the core inflation rate not only has been stable but it has actually picked up slightly. Inflation options need to consider all these trends.These trends point to more good news in the making and that is simply to recognize that as we move ahead calculating year over year inflation rates the high inflation rates from early 2022 are going to fall out of the calculation and that means that the year-over-year inflation rates are going to fall faster than they have been falling. And that's good news.As I mentioned earlier, we can't be sure what inflation is going to do in the period ahead this means monetary policy wants to be careful; it does not want to assume that progress is going to continue at a strong pace nor does it want to think if progress is slow that the pace can't speed up either. Future policy needs to have some flexibility but it also needs to be realistic in what it can do and what it can expect.One important way to look at inflation is to recognize that year-over-year inflation is nothing more than the multiplied one-month percentage changes of the last 12 months. We currently have CPI data through April; at the time of the May inflation report, we'll have 11 of the same month-to-month changes that the April report has. May will drop the (known) oldest month-to-month change and it will add a new one (unknown) for the month of May. Mechanically that's why the year of inflation rate doesn't change very much from month-to-month. But we can see by looking at these monthly inflation data that we are losing that they are going to be relatively high numbers whereas the inflation numbers we're going to be gaining - if they are in keeping with the recent monthly trends we've had - are going to be much lower. So that's grounds for optimism and getting the year-over-year inflation rate lower. But are we going to get it low enough? Based on current trends the answer seems to be 'no.' And this is why I caution the Fed not to be too quick to pause. One of the worst things that monetary policy can do is to go through stop-go phases. Moves like that confuse markets because they have a harder time figuring out the speed at which monetary policy will progress in the future. So, let's look at these month-to-month inflation changes and see what we can learn about what inflation is doing now.Chart 4Monthly frequency distribution of inflation (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)Chart four shows frequency distributions of monthly CPI percentage changes. They make the case that inflation is not yet under enough control for the Fed to slow its pace of tightening. This is a chart of the frequency distribution of monthly headline and core inflation changes for two different periods. The recent period spans the most recent 24 months. The other period is the benchmark 4 years before COVID struck during which inflation was low. The point of this chart is to look at the distribution or monthly changes in inflation during a period when inflation was low and compare it to the distribution that we have currently to see if the distribution of price changes for the core or headline CPI is beginning to look the way they have looked in the past during a broad period of price stability.The answer here is a rousing 'no.' The CPI core and the headline for the most recent 24 months show an extended frequency distribution to the right indicating that they have experienced some extreme the month-to-month changes in the headline and in the core CPI. During the four years of price stability before COVID struck we see the purple and the green series do not have extended frequency distributions to the right. The highest core increase during that four-year period was a gain of 0.3% month-to-month while the highest headline increase (the green series) was 0.5% month-to-month. Notice also during the period of price stability both the core and the headline series had observations at zero or even observations that were negative and there have been none of those over the past 24 months.These frequency distributions strongly suggest that we have not yet gotten back to a point of price stability and that, if we are going to get there, we'll have to have the period ahead appearing more like it was in the years prior to Covid.Chart 5Inflation density functions (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)If you don't find the frequency distribution charts compelling or if you find them confusing, I have also included above the density charts for the various distributions. The density charts add up the cumulative frequencies from the lowest percentage increases to the highest going from left to right. For example, the purple line which is for core inflation shows us that during the period of price stability 95.8% of the core observations we're 0.2% per month or lower- WOW! The headline CPI had a little more gradualness to it. Still, 58% of its month-to-month percent changes were a 0.1% or lower. It did that over four years, and had one month-to-month gain as large as 0.5% on the month.When we compare these two distributions to what we see over the last 24 months, there is no comparison as the 24-month distributions stretch well into much higher month-to-month percent changes.One obvious criticism here is that I'm looking at 24-months which is a long period that has some of the higher monthly percent changes involved dating back to the time when inflation was more virulent. And I did that to try to gain more observations to look at in a 24-month period instead of just a 12-month period.Chart 6frequency distribution for last 12-months (Haver Analytics and FAO Economics)To assuage that criticism… Chart 6 shows the frequency distribution for the last 12 months for both the headline and the core. Both the headline in the core measures have some extreme observations that are still in the distribution and while they both have their modal (or, most frequent observation) at 0.4% (for the core the distribution is bimodal with 0.4% and 0.3% more frequent). That's still far too high for a 2% annual target. The distributions are still far too skewed to the right and only the headline has observations below 0.3% monthly. The Fed's inflation target is 2% and a steady diet of increases of 0.2% per month will set the annual rate for inflation at 2.4%. In CPI terms that gain is comparable to 2% on the PCE that the Fed targets since the CPI runs hotter than the PCE. However, the core doesn't have any increases that small over the last 12 months (the smallest is 0.3% or 3.7% annualized!).The facts argue for a stricter Fed, not a looser oneMy conclusion is that the facts argue for a stricter Fed not for a looser Fed, and not for a Fed that's going to take us into a pause early and hopes to glide into a soft landing on the further hope that in the soft landing inflation will continue to be reduced. History tells us that the world doesn't normally work that way. But now that we have had high inflation we know that inflation expectations are elevated. And we can see from the distribution of monthly changes that while we've made some progress on inflation, we are still not close to generating the kind of increases month-in and month-out that are going to give us the kind of price discipline that we seek.Everything that we know about economics suggests that we need to keep more pressure on the economy, on producers, and on consumers to reduce demand pressures and reduce prices to the Fed's target pace of 2% on the PCE.This analysis suggests that if the Fed loosens policy early inflation will again get out of control and while the markets may like the Fed backing off at least initially - if this analysis is correct - and if it turns out that inflation remains stubborn or backtracks, market euphoria will be short-lived and the next round of pain would be devastating.Catch-22So there's a little bit of Joseph Heller in all of this. Joseph Heller wrote the book \"Catch-22,\" which is a wonderful book that I highly recommend. The title of the book stems from a hypothetical army regulation that says that if you're crazy you can get a deferment to get out of your military service. However, there's a catch. And that catch, known as catch-22, is that if you request to be let out of your military service on the basis that you're crazy, then you're sane enough to know that you're really not crazy and the clause no longer applies to you.I see this same sort of self-undermining logic in the belief that a soft-landing is the right course of action. Many want the economy to go back to normal and there was a long period of price stability before Covid. Many people simply assume that if the Fed just lets interest rates go back down to normal, inflation will go back to normal and everything will be fine and 'normal.' But the world has changed. COVID changed the world and what's normal has changed too.The supply chains shifted. Labor market participation rates have shifted. And, most of all, inflation has shifted and inflation psychology has shifted. There is no reason to think anything is going to go back to the way it was because we're just not there anymore. That world, that environment, those conditions, no longer exist.I worry… and you should, tooThis is why I worry about the Fed not having staying power and not raising rates enough. I believe it has already damaged its reputation by denying inflation and by procrastinating on needed policy moves that let inflation climb even higher. I don't know what will happen if it makes that same mistake again with inflation already this high. And this is not just simply a concern about the Fed. It's also a concern about what it will mean for Fed policy, and for markets: for the bond market, for stocks, for the dollar, for gold, for commodities, and for everything. Fed policy desperately needs to restore price stability. Financial policy needs an anchor. The Fed can't pull that anchor up and trust that the currents will take us where it wants us to go. Every investor needs to be aware of this risk.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944624814,"gmtCreate":1681834119138,"gmtModify":1681834124452,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9944624814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944624361,"gmtCreate":1681834097754,"gmtModify":1681834112552,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Last day already, award us the Disney shares","listText":"Last day already, award us the Disney shares","text":"Last day already, award us the Disney shares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9944624361","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944120334,"gmtCreate":1681747960928,"gmtModify":1681747964187,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"OK thanks Tiger.. More of such events please","listText":"OK thanks Tiger.. More of such events please","text":"OK thanks Tiger.. More of such events please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9944120334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944997477,"gmtCreate":1681661092999,"gmtModify":1681661096881,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"More vouchers and free stocks please. Thank you","listText":"More vouchers and free stocks please. Thank you","text":"More vouchers and free stocks please. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9944997477","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945799642,"gmtCreate":1681575534586,"gmtModify":1681575538235,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Love&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Love&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Love [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9945799642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945251825,"gmtCreate":1681489853767,"gmtModify":1681489857585,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"OK come on let's win","listText":"OK come on let's win","text":"OK come on let's win","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9945251825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945253507,"gmtCreate":1681489813309,"gmtModify":1681489815071,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9945253507","repostId":"9942715826","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9942715826,"gmtCreate":1681305409266,"gmtModify":1681305688681,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"Latest CPI ~ inflation better than expected (12 Apr 2023)","htmlText":"The latest CPI figure as of 12 Apr 2023 ~ reported by BLS:  The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0% before seasonal adjustment.   Observations (based on 12 months ended March 2023):  Food inflation remains strong at 8.5% Energy dropped 6.4% though energy services like Electricity and Utility (piped) gas services remain elevated at 9.2% Commodities less food &amp; energy commodities fell to 1.5% Services less energy services (like Shelter, Transportation services) remain elevated at 7.1%. Lead the inflation is transportation services at 13.9% The biggest decline is gasoline (all ","listText":"The latest CPI figure as of 12 Apr 2023 ~ reported by BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0% before seasonal adjustment. Observations (based on 12 months ended March 2023): Food inflation remains strong at 8.5% Energy dropped 6.4% though energy services like Electricity and Utility (piped) gas services remain elevated at 9.2% Commodities less food &amp; energy commodities fell to 1.5% Services less energy services (like Shelter, Transportation services) remain elevated at 7.1%. Lead the inflation is transportation services at 13.9% The biggest decline is gasoline (all","text":"The latest CPI figure as of 12 Apr 2023 ~ reported by BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0% before seasonal adjustment. Observations (based on 12 months ended March 2023): Food inflation remains strong at 8.5% Energy dropped 6.4% though energy services like Electricity and Utility (piped) gas services remain elevated at 9.2% Commodities less food & energy commodities fell to 1.5% Services less energy services (like Shelter, Transportation services) remain elevated at 7.1%. Lead the inflation is transportation services at 13.9% The biggest decline is gasoline (all","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34dbfbee195e1ffc935e01bdfe9e6fae","width":"1456","height":"696"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9942715826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945181465,"gmtCreate":1681402118957,"gmtModify":1681402122449,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Play and Win.. Still. Got a few more days","listText":"Play and Win.. Still. Got a few more days","text":"Play and Win.. Still. Got a few more days","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9945181465","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942772147,"gmtCreate":1681315545489,"gmtModify":1681315549095,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Let's have fun! More vouchers&nbsp;","listText":"Let's have fun! More vouchers&nbsp;","text":"Let's have fun! More vouchers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9942772147","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942288312,"gmtCreate":1681229422037,"gmtModify":1681229425101,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Good.. On going for perks.. Good luck everyone","listText":"Good.. On going for perks.. Good luck everyone","text":"Good.. On going for perks.. Good luck everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9942288312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942348660,"gmtCreate":1681142744651,"gmtModify":1681142747349,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"I want more free shares please&nbsp;","listText":"I want more free shares please&nbsp;","text":"I want more free shares please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9942348660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942028687,"gmtCreate":1681087466749,"gmtModify":1681087470652,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Totally agree!&nbsp;","listText":"Totally agree!&nbsp;","text":"Totally agree!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9942028687","repostId":"1181303253","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181303253","pubTimestamp":1681084236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181303253?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-10 07:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Google Stock Be In 10 Years?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181303253","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMicrosoft's Bing doesn't appear to have posed a serious threat to Google Search yet, judging ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Microsoft&#39;s Bing doesn&#39;t appear to have posed a serious threat to Google Search yet, judging by recent web traffic and user engagement metrics.</p></li><li><p>In 10 years&#39; time, Alphabet might maintain a decent pace of revenue expansion despite its size, thanks to AI&#39;s positive impact on Google Search&#39;s and Google Cloud&#39;s growth prospects.</p></li><li><p>My rating for Google stock is a Buy, as I think that Alphabet is undervalued in consideration of its 10-year outlook.</p></li></ul><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Elevator Pitch</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I assign a Buy rating to Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), a company which is also referred to as Google.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">My earlier write-up for Google published on February 10, 2023 touched on the four key investment considerations relating to Alphabet, namely &#34;competitive pressures, regulatory headwinds, historical results and valuations.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the current article, my focus is on Alphabet&#39;s long-term outlook, considering the growth potential of AI. I upgrade my rating on Google from a Hold to a Buy, given that I expect Alphabet to be able to deliver a pretty decent level of top-line growth for the next decade with AI-related tailwinds.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Alphabet Stock Key Metrics</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The key metrics for Alphabet relate to the company&#39;s costs, investments, and search advertising business.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">With respect to expense optimization, Google announced earlier in an 8-K filing released on January 20, 2023 that it will cut its &#34;workforce by approximately 12,000 roles&#34;, or around 6% of its total number of employees. Alphabet is likely to have considered cost-cutting as a means of expanding its capacity to invest in Artificial Intelligence or AI. In this 8-K filing, Alphabet specifically mentioned that the company aims to &#34;direct our talent and capital to our highest priorities&#34;, and noted the &#34;substantial opportunity in front of us with AI.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">With regards to competition, the threat posed by Microsoft&#39;s (MSFT) AI-powered Bing search engine doesn&#39;t seem as damaging as earlier feared.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A March 13, 2023 research report (not publicly available) titled &#34;Alphabet: CFO Commentary On AI Suggests Products Are Coming&#34; published by BofA (BAC) Securities highlighted that &#34;Bing activity is not impacting Google Web traffic.&#34; The BofA report cited data from SimilarWeb, which showed that the number of visits to Google&#39;s website on a daily basis (averaging around 2.8 billion) was stable in the first month following MSFT&#39;s introduction of its new AI-powered Bing search engine on February 7.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Separately, Microsoft disclosed on March 8, 2023 that &#34;one third of daily preview users (for Bing) are using Chat daily&#34;, which isn&#39;t as high a percentage as one would have expected given the buzz surrounding chatbots. In other words, there doesn&#39;t seem to have been a very meaningful change in search preferences from traditional search to AI chatbots for now.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A comparison of Alphabet&#39;s FY 2022 10-K and FY 2021 10-K filings also highlights certain key metrics.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In its FY 2021 10-K filing, Google highlighted that &#34;we have invested more than $100 billion in R&amp;D over the last five years&#34;, but this was taken out from the company&#39;s FY 2022 10-K filing. This implies that Alphabet is most probably going to exercise tight control over costs and investments in the very near term.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On the other hand, Alphabet included in its FY 2022 10-K filing additional descriptions about search and AI. Specifically, Google indicated in its most recent fiscal year 10-K that &#34;of the searches we see every day, 15% are new&#34;, and emphasized that &#34;AI already powers Google&#39;s core products that help billions of people every day.&#34; In my opinion, Alphabet is sending the message that Google will continue to be dominant in search, and the company is well-prepared to capitalize on the rise of AI.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a nutshell, an analysis of Google&#39;s key metrics suggests that the company&#39;s prospects for both the short-term and long run should be good.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">What Is The Short-Term Prediction?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Alphabet is expected to report its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 towards the end of this month, and my view is that Google&#39;s upcoming quarterly financial performance disclosure should meet the market&#39;s expectations.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the past three months, Google&#39;s normalized EPS estimate for Q1 2023 have been lowered by 16 of the Wall Street analysts covering the company&#39;s shares. During this same time period, only three sell-side analysts raised Alphabet&#39;s first quarter and bottom-line forecasts, while the other analysts left their financial projections for the company unchanged. Specifically, the market consensus expects Alphabet&#39;s normalized EPS to decline by -13% to $1.07 in Q1 2023, which is worse than Google&#39;s -6% YoY bottom-line contraction for Q1 2022.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In other words, Wall Street has pretty modest expectations of Alphabet&#39;s Q1 2023 results. In the preceding section, I highlighted that Google&#39;s search business shouldn&#39;t have been affected in a meaningful way by MSFT&#39;s new AI-powered Bing search engine, and I also noted that Alphabet is putting a great emphasis on optimizing expenses and controlling the pace of new investments. The above-mentioned factors point to Alphabet&#39;s first quarter results coming in line with the sell-side&#39;s expectations at worst, which is my short-term prediction for the stock.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">What Are Catalysts To Watch For?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">There are two catalysts for Alphabet that are worth keeping an eye on.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The first potential catalyst is further layoffs.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Based on my analysis of Google&#39;s prior financial filings, Alphabet has increased its staff strength by more than 71,000 in the last three years. In comparison, the company has only announced 12,000 layoffs, or just under 17% of new headcount additions since end-2019, in January 2023. It is reasonable to expect Alphabet to announce plans for further workforce optimization in time to come, which will indicate to the market that Google is serious about preserving profitability in tough times.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The second potential catalyst is indicators or news flow suggesting that Google Search hasn&#39;t ceded ground in its battle with Microsoft&#39;s Bing.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>Seeking Alpha News</em> reported recently on April 6, 2023 that Alphabet &#34;plans to integrate conversational artificial-intelligence features to the company&#39;s flagship search engine.&#34; This should help to ensure that Google Search is competitive with Microsoft&#39;s Bing, assuming that chatbots become much more popular with internet users going forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In an earlier section of this article, I have already cited certain statistics on Google&#39;s search traffic and Bing&#39;s user engagement which suggest that Microsoft&#39;s Bing hasn&#39;t gained much ground on Google Search. Looking ahead, Google search advertising revenue trend in subsequent quarters, and other user search metrics disclosed by Alphabet and Microsoft will most probably help to validate the thesis that MSFT&#39;s Bing isn&#39;t impacting Google&#39;s search advertising business in a big way.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Where Will Google Stock Be In 10 Years?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the next decade, Alphabet should deliver faster revenue growth than what the market currently expects, thanks to AI-related growth opportunities for Google Search and Google Cloud.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The sell-side sees Google&#39;s revenue growing by a 10-year CAGR of +8.5% from $282.8 billion in FY 2022 to $641.9 billion for FY 2032. If Alphabet&#39;s actual top-line growth for the coming decade turns out to be better than what the analysts are predicting, the company&#39;s stock price performance going forward should be pretty favorable. With AI recently emerging as a key investment theme following the launch of ChatGPT, it is natural that analysts and investors haven&#39;t fully factored in the growth potential of AI into Alphabet&#39;s forward-looking numbers.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">At the <em>Morgan Stanley</em> (MS) Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference on March 8, 2023, Google stressed that it has &#34;used AI that really help advertisers achieve and maximize their objectives around ROI (Return on Investment)&#34; with search ads. Alphabet also noted at <em>MS&#39;</em> investor event in early March that its Google Cloud Platform&#39;s or GCP&#39;s &#34;AI infrastructure enables customers really to leverage TPUs (Tensor Processing Units), GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) to really run what they need.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As per the company&#39;s management comments at <em>MS&#39;</em> TMT conference on March 8, Alphabet wants to leverage on AI to achieve higher ROI on its search ads. It means that Google search will become more effective with the support of AI, and drive an increase in click-through rates or CTR. This should in turn lead to higher cost-per-click or CPC, and accelerated Search revenue growth for Alphabet in the long run.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Separately, a February 2023 research study conducted by <em>Global Market Insights</em> forecasted that the size of the worldwide public cloud market will expand from $400 billion last year to in excess of $1 trillion by 2032. In <em>Global Market Insights&#39;</em> report, the &#34;mounting deployment of AI&#34; is cited as one of the key growth drivers for the public cloud market. As one of the leading cloud players alongside Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS and Microsoft&#39;s Azure, Google Cloud Platform or GCP is in a good position to benefit from additional top-line contribution associated with an increase in cloud AI spend.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Is Google Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Alphabet is an appealing investment candidate for the long run, which warrants a Buy rating. The rise of AI should allow Alphabet&#39;s key businesses like Google Search Advertising and Google Cloud Platform to grow at a faster pace in the coming decade. In terms of valuations, Alphabet&#39;s current consensus forward next twelve months&#39; EV/EBITDA multiple is 11.3 times (source: <em>S&amp;P Capital IQ</em>). Google&#39;s valuations are attractive for a company which is expected to grow its revenue by a CAGR of above +10% in the next 10 years and has achieved strong operating profitability (i.e. FY 2018-2022 EBITDA margins in the 35%-40% range) for years. Undemanding valuations and better-than-expected growth prospects for the long run make Google a good long-term investment.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Google Stock Be In 10 Years?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Google Stock Be In 10 Years?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-10 07:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4592855-where-will-google-stock-be-in-10-years><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMicrosoft's Bing doesn't appear to have posed a serious threat to Google Search yet, judging by recent web traffic and user engagement metrics.In 10 years' time, Alphabet might maintain a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4592855-where-will-google-stock-be-in-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4592855-where-will-google-stock-be-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181303253","content_text":"SummaryMicrosoft's Bing doesn't appear to have posed a serious threat to Google Search yet, judging by recent web traffic and user engagement metrics.In 10 years' time, Alphabet might maintain a decent pace of revenue expansion despite its size, thanks to AI's positive impact on Google Search's and Google Cloud's growth prospects.My rating for Google stock is a Buy, as I think that Alphabet is undervalued in consideration of its 10-year outlook.Elevator PitchI assign a Buy rating to Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), a company which is also referred to as Google.My earlier write-up for Google published on February 10, 2023 touched on the four key investment considerations relating to Alphabet, namely \"competitive pressures, regulatory headwinds, historical results and valuations.\"In the current article, my focus is on Alphabet's long-term outlook, considering the growth potential of AI. I upgrade my rating on Google from a Hold to a Buy, given that I expect Alphabet to be able to deliver a pretty decent level of top-line growth for the next decade with AI-related tailwinds.Alphabet Stock Key MetricsThe key metrics for Alphabet relate to the company's costs, investments, and search advertising business.With respect to expense optimization, Google announced earlier in an 8-K filing released on January 20, 2023 that it will cut its \"workforce by approximately 12,000 roles\", or around 6% of its total number of employees. Alphabet is likely to have considered cost-cutting as a means of expanding its capacity to invest in Artificial Intelligence or AI. In this 8-K filing, Alphabet specifically mentioned that the company aims to \"direct our talent and capital to our highest priorities\", and noted the \"substantial opportunity in front of us with AI.\"With regards to competition, the threat posed by Microsoft's (MSFT) AI-powered Bing search engine doesn't seem as damaging as earlier feared.A March 13, 2023 research report (not publicly available) titled \"Alphabet: CFO Commentary On AI Suggests Products Are Coming\" published by BofA (BAC) Securities highlighted that \"Bing activity is not impacting Google Web traffic.\" The BofA report cited data from SimilarWeb, which showed that the number of visits to Google's website on a daily basis (averaging around 2.8 billion) was stable in the first month following MSFT's introduction of its new AI-powered Bing search engine on February 7.Separately, Microsoft disclosed on March 8, 2023 that \"one third of daily preview users (for Bing) are using Chat daily\", which isn't as high a percentage as one would have expected given the buzz surrounding chatbots. In other words, there doesn't seem to have been a very meaningful change in search preferences from traditional search to AI chatbots for now.A comparison of Alphabet's FY 2022 10-K and FY 2021 10-K filings also highlights certain key metrics.In its FY 2021 10-K filing, Google highlighted that \"we have invested more than $100 billion in R&D over the last five years\", but this was taken out from the company's FY 2022 10-K filing. This implies that Alphabet is most probably going to exercise tight control over costs and investments in the very near term.On the other hand, Alphabet included in its FY 2022 10-K filing additional descriptions about search and AI. Specifically, Google indicated in its most recent fiscal year 10-K that \"of the searches we see every day, 15% are new\", and emphasized that \"AI already powers Google's core products that help billions of people every day.\" In my opinion, Alphabet is sending the message that Google will continue to be dominant in search, and the company is well-prepared to capitalize on the rise of AI.In a nutshell, an analysis of Google's key metrics suggests that the company's prospects for both the short-term and long run should be good.What Is The Short-Term Prediction?Alphabet is expected to report its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 towards the end of this month, and my view is that Google's upcoming quarterly financial performance disclosure should meet the market's expectations.In the past three months, Google's normalized EPS estimate for Q1 2023 have been lowered by 16 of the Wall Street analysts covering the company's shares. During this same time period, only three sell-side analysts raised Alphabet's first quarter and bottom-line forecasts, while the other analysts left their financial projections for the company unchanged. Specifically, the market consensus expects Alphabet's normalized EPS to decline by -13% to $1.07 in Q1 2023, which is worse than Google's -6% YoY bottom-line contraction for Q1 2022.In other words, Wall Street has pretty modest expectations of Alphabet's Q1 2023 results. In the preceding section, I highlighted that Google's search business shouldn't have been affected in a meaningful way by MSFT's new AI-powered Bing search engine, and I also noted that Alphabet is putting a great emphasis on optimizing expenses and controlling the pace of new investments. The above-mentioned factors point to Alphabet's first quarter results coming in line with the sell-side's expectations at worst, which is my short-term prediction for the stock.What Are Catalysts To Watch For?There are two catalysts for Alphabet that are worth keeping an eye on.The first potential catalyst is further layoffs.Based on my analysis of Google's prior financial filings, Alphabet has increased its staff strength by more than 71,000 in the last three years. In comparison, the company has only announced 12,000 layoffs, or just under 17% of new headcount additions since end-2019, in January 2023. It is reasonable to expect Alphabet to announce plans for further workforce optimization in time to come, which will indicate to the market that Google is serious about preserving profitability in tough times.The second potential catalyst is indicators or news flow suggesting that Google Search hasn't ceded ground in its battle with Microsoft's Bing.Seeking Alpha News reported recently on April 6, 2023 that Alphabet \"plans to integrate conversational artificial-intelligence features to the company's flagship search engine.\" This should help to ensure that Google Search is competitive with Microsoft's Bing, assuming that chatbots become much more popular with internet users going forward.In an earlier section of this article, I have already cited certain statistics on Google's search traffic and Bing's user engagement which suggest that Microsoft's Bing hasn't gained much ground on Google Search. Looking ahead, Google search advertising revenue trend in subsequent quarters, and other user search metrics disclosed by Alphabet and Microsoft will most probably help to validate the thesis that MSFT's Bing isn't impacting Google's search advertising business in a big way.Where Will Google Stock Be In 10 Years?In the next decade, Alphabet should deliver faster revenue growth than what the market currently expects, thanks to AI-related growth opportunities for Google Search and Google Cloud.The sell-side sees Google's revenue growing by a 10-year CAGR of +8.5% from $282.8 billion in FY 2022 to $641.9 billion for FY 2032. If Alphabet's actual top-line growth for the coming decade turns out to be better than what the analysts are predicting, the company's stock price performance going forward should be pretty favorable. With AI recently emerging as a key investment theme following the launch of ChatGPT, it is natural that analysts and investors haven't fully factored in the growth potential of AI into Alphabet's forward-looking numbers.At the Morgan Stanley (MS) Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 8, 2023, Google stressed that it has \"used AI that really help advertisers achieve and maximize their objectives around ROI (Return on Investment)\" with search ads. Alphabet also noted at MS' investor event in early March that its Google Cloud Platform's or GCP's \"AI infrastructure enables customers really to leverage TPUs (Tensor Processing Units), GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) to really run what they need.\"As per the company's management comments at MS' TMT conference on March 8, Alphabet wants to leverage on AI to achieve higher ROI on its search ads. It means that Google search will become more effective with the support of AI, and drive an increase in click-through rates or CTR. This should in turn lead to higher cost-per-click or CPC, and accelerated Search revenue growth for Alphabet in the long run.Separately, a February 2023 research study conducted by Global Market Insights forecasted that the size of the worldwide public cloud market will expand from $400 billion last year to in excess of $1 trillion by 2032. In Global Market Insights' report, the \"mounting deployment of AI\" is cited as one of the key growth drivers for the public cloud market. As one of the leading cloud players alongside Amazon's (AMZN) AWS and Microsoft's Azure, Google Cloud Platform or GCP is in a good position to benefit from additional top-line contribution associated with an increase in cloud AI spend.Is Google Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?Alphabet is an appealing investment candidate for the long run, which warrants a Buy rating. The rise of AI should allow Alphabet's key businesses like Google Search Advertising and Google Cloud Platform to grow at a faster pace in the coming decade. In terms of valuations, Alphabet's current consensus forward next twelve months' EV/EBITDA multiple is 11.3 times (source: S&P Capital IQ). Google's valuations are attractive for a company which is expected to grow its revenue by a CAGR of above +10% in the next 10 years and has achieved strong operating profitability (i.e. FY 2018-2022 EBITDA margins in the 35%-40% range) for years. Undemanding valuations and better-than-expected growth prospects for the long run make Google a good long-term investment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946788346,"gmtCreate":1681056322685,"gmtModify":1681056327172,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Got fast👍thanks for improving&nbsp;","listText":"Got fast👍thanks for improving&nbsp;","text":"Got fast👍thanks for improving","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9946788346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946781668,"gmtCreate":1681056296954,"gmtModify":1681056299796,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Play play play.. I'm loving it","listText":"Play play play.. I'm loving it","text":"Play play play.. I'm loving it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9946781668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946282719,"gmtCreate":1680971046631,"gmtModify":1680971050053,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9946282719","repostId":"9946649109","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9946649109,"gmtCreate":1680956276902,"gmtModify":1680961794833,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"Economic Calendar (10 Apr 2023) - CPI updates this week","htmlText":"Public Holidays 10 Apr 2023 - Hong Kong Easter&nbsp; Economic Calendar (10 Apr 2023) Economic Calendar for the week starting 10Apr2023 Notable highlights:  CPI&nbsp;- this will doubtless be the most watched announcement for the week. The market is looking forward to a 5.2% (YoY) inflation rate with MoM Core CPI expected at 0.4%. PPI&nbsp;- Producer Price Index reveals the inflation that hits producers first. Typically, this is a prequel to CPI as producers try to pass on inflation to the buyers. FOMC meeting minutes&nbsp;- this would set the expectations on how the Fed view the current situation and how the interest rate may be applied to address the inflation &amp; unemployment situation. This is a tough balance to manage. Employment-related&gt; initial jobless claims will reveal the exte","listText":"Public Holidays 10 Apr 2023 - Hong Kong Easter&nbsp; Economic Calendar (10 Apr 2023) Economic Calendar for the week starting 10Apr2023 Notable highlights: CPI&nbsp;- this will doubtless be the most watched announcement for the week. The market is looking forward to a 5.2% (YoY) inflation rate with MoM Core CPI expected at 0.4%. PPI&nbsp;- Producer Price Index reveals the inflation that hits producers first. Typically, this is a prequel to CPI as producers try to pass on inflation to the buyers. FOMC meeting minutes&nbsp;- this would set the expectations on how the Fed view the current situation and how the interest rate may be applied to address the inflation &amp; unemployment situation. This is a tough balance to manage. Employment-related&gt; initial jobless claims will reveal the exte","text":"Public Holidays 10 Apr 2023 - Hong Kong Easter Economic Calendar (10 Apr 2023) Economic Calendar for the week starting 10Apr2023 Notable highlights: CPI - this will doubtless be the most watched announcement for the week. The market is looking forward to a 5.2% (YoY) inflation rate with MoM Core CPI expected at 0.4%. PPI - Producer Price Index reveals the inflation that hits producers first. Typically, this is a prequel to CPI as producers try to pass on inflation to the buyers. FOMC meeting minutes - this would set the expectations on how the Fed view the current situation and how the interest rate may be applied to address the inflation & unemployment situation. This is a tough balance to manage. Employment-related> initial jobless claims will reveal the exte","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/183452169d47fa6049e02f7f2bfcb5b5","width":"1050","height":"616"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9946649109","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946211666,"gmtCreate":1680969977055,"gmtModify":1680969980568,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Play and win.. Like this kind of game with rewards","listText":"Play and win.. Like this kind of game with rewards","text":"Play and win.. Like this kind of game with rewards","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9946211666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946213443,"gmtCreate":1680969951182,"gmtModify":1680969954595,"author":{"id":"4098943201642940","authorId":"4098943201642940","name":"AlfonsoDex","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a15e77856c304a3ea717de9f023869a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":35323feabdf64eda98231879353b3705}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"🐰🌷 Hop into Easter and join Tiger's Egg Hunt! 🎉We're giving away free Disney stocks, USD120 stock vouchers, and more to lucky players who participate in our Easter game. 🎁🌟","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25550a0faff90c6eead728b9b07143aa","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"htmlText":"Like it but I hope everyone can get a Disney share","listText":"Like it but I hope everyone can get a Disney share","text":"Like it but I hope everyone can get a Disney share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/m/post/9946213443","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}