Last week，I have given the idea that WTI crude oil can enter the market to bargain-hunt after being as low as 76.25 USD/barrel before refreshing.
Today's resumption of trading shows that those who did what i said can make a floating profit of 400-500 points overnight, but the problem is that there are very few traders did so , because according to the script of bargain-hunting in our original plan, this time node should be around November 28th, not overnight.
So, what happened overnight?
Generally speaking, during the week of "World Cup + Thanksgiving Day", the volatility of the whole global financial market will be relatively calm, which can be felt by everyone from the volatility of the varieties they pay attention to recently. After all, traders and institutions in the market are busy watching the stadium and holidays, and light trading is the norm.
However, on the calm lake, suddenly an extraterrestrial meteorite blew out a huge puddle-
There are rumors in the market that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are considering increasing crude oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day. As OPEC + will hold a meeting on December 4th, and December 5th is the deadline for EU and Western sanctions against Russian crude oil. If OPEC + really increases production, it will be a supplement to Russia's crude oil supply, and it is also an opportunity for the US-Saudi Arabia relationship to turn to easing.
Affected by this, WTI crude oil dived nearly 500 points from USD 80/barrel in less than two hours, hitting a previous low of USD 76.25/barrel and hitting a new low of USD 75.28/barrel.
In fact, if this market rumor is true, then this production increase plan is tantamount to a reversal of the decision to "reduce production by 2 million barrels per day" at the October meeting, but the rumor was quickly refuted by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Saudi Arabia not only denied the rumors, but also said that it is ready to further reduce production when necessary.
The Saudi energy minister pointed out in a statement that "OPEC + 's current practice of reducing production by 2 million barrels per day will last until the end of 2023. If further measures need to be taken to balance supply and demand by reducing production, we are ready to intervene."
The UAE's energy minister also denied rumors,He also said that he is discussing with other OPEC + member countries about changing the production reduction agreement valid until the end of 2023, and remains committed to OPEC + 's goal of balancing the oil market, and will support any decision to achieve this goal.
Therefore, the crude oil market still returns to The logic explained by me, from the perspective of supply, OPEC + tries to support oil prices, which is beneficial to many factors; However, from the perspective of consumption, the future economic recession is already a high probability, with negative factors.
Of course, judging from the trend overnight, this round of shorting crude oil orders that we laid out on November 7th has reached the tail, and then the oil price may rebound and correct at any time.
The key time point is obviously that on December 4th-5th, the G7 tried to cap the price of Russian oil between 40-60 US dollars per barrel, which is basically equal to the oil production cost of Russia before the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, Russia has strongly stated that it will not sell oil to any country participating in the price cap.
I would like to ask you, G7 is ready to limit prices and Russia is ready to limit sales, so can oil prices still go on? ! People who have invested in real estate in China believe that all of you will have an answer in your heart, and this answer can also explain:Why I will let you enter the bargain-hunting market after refreshing the low.
So I gave such a script. "Buy your favorite team to win, which is a heavy position operation, because once you lose, you will not only have to bear emotional trauma, but also bear financial losses. Therefore, as a rational investor, the correct operation should be to buy your favorite team to lose, which is a hedging operation, because you are happy when the team wins, and you have financial compensation when the team loses."
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