History is telling us that the remainder of 2022 is setting up to be quite a positive one for risk assets, at least in terms of the current election cycle.

The gains aren’t just limited to the immediate post-election period either. Stocks have historically performed very well in the 12-month period following a midterm election.

The S&P 500 is a perfect 18-for-18 in posting positive returns in the year following a midterm. Not just positive returns, significantly positive returns. On average, the S&P 500 has gained 15% in the following 12 months, more than double what the index typically returns.

History would suggest that the odds are good, but we’ll see if it plays out again this time. It looks like we’re heading into a recessionary period with a housing market that’s crumbling, a war in Ukraine and double digit inflation all over the world. That’s not exactly the types of conditions that occurred during prior midterm years. That could make 2022 a true outlier.

@Tiger_chat @CaptainTiger @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger