SPX is resisting...and fighting

Article content: SUMMARY-MAIN EVENTS-SCENARIO-SPX LEVELS-AGENDA

• The stock market fell on Friday and for the second week in a row

A drop in consumer sentiment and ongoing wrangling over the debt ceiling...

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.2% and 0.3% weekly.

SPX-4200 would a figth...

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 0.4% on the day and week.

$DJIA(.DJI)$ fell slightly, down 1.1% for the week.

MAIN EVENTS

PCI - PPI (Consumer price index and the producer price index)

Both remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target

• Inflation expectations for the year ahead fell from 4.6% to 4.5%, but long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.2% from 3%, the highest level since 2011...

ISM-University of Michigan Preliminary Sentiment Index:

The index for May fell to 57.7, a 9% drop from the previous month and the lowest point since 56.7 in November.

• Confidence against the battle of inflation and a soft landing would erode...especially as politicians fail to resolve the impasse over the debt ceiling...

MARKET SCENARIO

• The latest macroeconomic indicators published in the United States point to less threatening inflation and a slowing economy...

• This would fuel the feeling that the Fed would be at its rate peak...

• In Europe, on the other hand, inflation remains high, but not as high as in the United Kingdom, where the Bank of England raised its key rate from 4.25% to 4.50% this week. And according to the latest offers, there is a good chance of having to aim even higher. The fragility of US regional banks and the showdown around the US debt ceiling are the two storm clouds that would threaten the FOMO syndrome in the markets.

FactSet source

SPX LEVELS

• SPX is struggling to reach the top 4,200, a level it hasn't reached since last August. Will the new wave of earnings next week be able to provide that fuel...

Levels retained for the SPX

• Key levels: 4000-4050-4100-4150

• Upper zone: 4150-4175-4200 in major resistance

• Lower zone: 4100-4050 in major support

SPX Levels

AGENDA

• Empire State Manufacturing Index (Monday).

• Core Retail Sales and Monthly Retail Sales (MoM) (Tuesday).

• Unemployment claims will be announced (Thursday).

• Speeches by the presidents of the central banks: Lagarde will speak on Tuesday and Friday, Governor Bailey will speak on Wednesday and Powell will speak on Friday.

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