Why Tesla might have further to fall

TotalTechnical
2023-05-22

‌$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  ‌‌

I use the Long term dynamic zone and the short term dynamic zone, to analyse the short term and long term trend of a stock. We can see candles above the long term dynamic support trend during the bull run in 2021.

It looked vulnerable when it dropped below both the long term and short term dynamic trend zones in May 2022. A failed rally which started around Aug 2022 eventually failed again by Oct 2022. Ever since, it has been on a big down trend.

We can see earlier this year it tried to rally again in Feb and Mar 2023 but was unable to break through the long term trend zone which is acting as a dynamic resistance.

If it fails the most recent low around 153, it could potentially drop quickly to around the low put in on Jan 2023. Until the short term dynamic trend can cross above the long term dynamic zone, I remain bearish on the Tesla stock as long as it remains below the 200 moving average and the long term dynamic trend zone.




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Comments

  • Monkseal
    2023-05-23
    Monkseal
    Is that the only indicator to support your bearish sentiment? If so, how this indicator fares if we were to put the macroeconomics for EV industry into equation?
    • TotalTechnical: 

      Like many moving average indicators, I use it to quickly analyse to see the direction of the trend, make up my mind if I want to short or go long. I thrn use mainly price action and volumes (also volume profile) to determine where I may enter and exit the trade. The long term and short term trend zones work well with any security (forex, crypto and shares) at any time frame. I tend to make my trade on the daily chart as I mostly do swing trades.

  • bubblyx
    2023-05-24
    bubblyx

    What PE is justified for Tesla? I’d say 25-30. Add 10 for the cult following and you have 35-40. Before years end, I believe that’s where the price will be. Tesla’s earnings have to be very good beyond what’s attainable.

    • TotalTechnical: 

      The beauty with technical analysis is reading what the market is telling you objectively and follow the trend. I use fundamental data with technical analysis to determine sizing and stop loses for my trades.

  • happygo
    2023-05-23
    happygo

    💭 Will Tesla be able to break through the long term dynamic trend zone anytime soon?

    • TotalTechnical: 
      Hi, we will need to continue to monitor price action to see how it interacts in this zone. If we see new higher highs and higher lows and a breakout of this zone, it could be a good time to dip your toe in.
  • fizzzi
    2023-05-23
    fizzzi

    🤔 How much lower can Tesla's stock price potentially go if it fails the most recent low?

    • TotalTechnical: 
      Hi, potentially it can drop to around the lows in Jan 2023. Looking at the most recent price action, it is looking positive with higher highs and higher lows since the April low. It is also now coming into the long term trend zone and the 200 mavoing average. I'll be keeping a close eye on this.
  • zinglee
    2023-05-24
    zinglee

    TESLA needs to innovate and build on its name and technology. In my opinion, many new EV companies till eat their lunch unless Musk pays attention to his business.

  • TotalTechnical
    2023-05-23
    TotalTechnical

    The reversal candle on 27-Apr-23 has started a short term bullish trend, making higher highs and higher lows. It is now also interacting with the long term trend zone again and I want to see and impulsive move above this zone on good volumes.



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