LuckyPiggie
2022-10-22
Replying to @LuckyPiggie:Later happy news from WJ out saying Fed MAY go for lower INT hikes instead of 75bps in 2023. Everyone goes high and market rally.

My take. Likely due to option expiry. Most bet SPY will drop. For option seller to earn big money , best price is at 375. So buyers all got burnt.

//@LuckyPiggie:Fri updates
For those lazy to read all the crazy news. So what happened on Fri.

started off red in early session as the bond yields shot up. [Surprised]

Later surprisingly Fed came to the rescue [Grin] There are news Fed MAY reduce rate hike ie increment lesser bps 50- or 25 bps in 2023. So 75bps in Nov , 50-75bps in Dec. And market rally.

@LuckyPiggie：Today no date with babe to play with . Bored , so I write grandfather story. Ok so the AI wants to play game. Let's play (by watching [Grin] ) BULLs will say strong rebound on Thurs. The markt is going to reverse. Yields were down, dollar was down . Hallelujah. Open red wine champagne cocktail , celebrate. Although Fri was down, just a small retraction after a big up. BEARS will say CPI increased higher than expected. Fed will go for 100bps. Shot everything down all the way to Sagittarius A* . (google is ur best friend if u dont know) Hallelujah If you read the news , many analysts were puzzled. Oh.. it's just a relief rally... yada yada. But afew did catch this move. To me , this is not a bear trap. By right , bad cpi shld send SPY down. By left , the ups were due to the squeeze, not due to fundamentals. I see the bounce more of a Bull trap. But what do i know... [Glance] Some asked Why Why Why ... the reason is simply. The supercomputers running the trades want to eat your money. They run on dollar , not electricity. There were a few reaons floating around. I give you the most obvious. Many expected the market would be down on Thurs. There were tons of PUT options, Tons of shots, Tons of evil laughter. But when market went up instead (thanks to the evil supercomputers), all started to rush in and buy , pushing SPY to the SKY. Now you know why spy agent007 like to drop from the Sky. My guess how the SPY will move ... (hello , just GUESSING only, i not supercomputer) 1) Friday dropped but didnt drop back to new low. It stopped swee swee at 362. ( if it dropped below 248/9 , watch out. Many pants will drop) . Kind of saying market is not willing to go down. At least for now. 2) there are bullish divergence in the weekly. Lower low on SPY , RSI was higher Low. Indicator is just a probability, doesnt mean 100% guarantee. 3) upper resistance, 373.5 , 378 , 383 ... aga aga . Chances are after this bounce, it will go lower again before another bounce. 4) if down .. back to 348 . Break below this , 啊彌陀佛 But watch out for rebound. Read the news . Things to look for : 10yr n 2 yr Yields, the dollar , the treasury, the feds , the ccp tomorrow, the war , the Joey boy crazy speech, the pretty gals /mans ... Anyone can tell me how to embed picture between the lines ? [LOL]
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