Today no date with babe to play with . Bored , so I write grandfather story.
Ok so the AI wants to play game. Let's play (by watching [Grin] )
BULLs will say strong rebound on Thurs. The markt is going to reverse. Yields were down, dollar was down . Hallelujah. Open red wine champagne cocktail , celebrate. Although Fri was down, just a small retraction after a big up.
BEARS will say CPI increased higher than expected. Fed will go for 100bps. Shot everything down all the way to Sagittarius A* . (google is ur best friend if u dont know) Hallelujah
If you read the news , many analysts were puzzled. Oh.. it's just a relief rally... yada yada. But afew did catch this move. To me , this is not a bear trap. By right , bad cpi shld send SPY down. By left , the ups were due to the squeeze, not due to fundamentals. I see the bounce more of a Bull trap. But what do i know... [Glance]
Some asked Why Why Why ... the reason is simply. The supercomputers running the trades want to eat your money. They run on dollar , not electricity. There were a few reaons floating around. I give you the most obvious. Many expected the market would be down on Thurs. There were tons of PUT options, Tons of shots, Tons of evil laughter. But when market went up instead (thanks to the evil supercomputers), all started to rush in and buy , pushing SPY to the SKY. Now you know why spy agent007 like to drop from the Sky.
My guess how the SPY will move ... (hello , just GUESSING only, i not supercomputer)
1) Friday dropped but didnt drop back to new low. It stopped swee swee at 362. ( if it dropped below 248/9 , watch out. Many pants will drop) . Kind of saying market is not willing to go down. At least for now.
2) there are bullish divergence in the weekly. Lower low on SPY , RSI was higher Low. Indicator is just a probability, doesnt mean 100% guarantee.
3) upper resistance, 373.5 , 378 , 383 ... aga aga . Chances are after this bounce, it will go lower again before another bounce.
4) if down .. back to 348 . Break below this , 啊彌陀佛 But watch out for rebound. Read the news .
Things to look for : 10yr n 2 yr Yields, the dollar , the treasury, the feds , the ccp tomorrow, the war , the Joey boy crazy speech, the pretty gals /mans ...
Anyone can tell me how to embed picture between the lines ? [LOL]
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Cos if fed add another 75 pts, will Drop further.
I dont agree with article saying already price in
GDP - good or bad ? came in 2.6 above estimate. If you look at the breakdown, it wasnt good.
Apple - Good or Bad ?
Main biz iPhone wasnt good alth other device biz was doing ok.
The rest of the FAANG - 💩
Will the rally continue to end of the year? This will depend on coming FOMC ie Milder tone or tougher tone from JPowell.
Next year ? I think next 2 Q will be bad. Sales will drop and btw the INT hike will come into play for US/EU company earning next year. Thats why many analysts say another leg lower as long as Fed dont U turn. Current Fed rate target 5% early next yr.
However it is not the drop we shld be worrying. The concern is how high will it climb back.
Of course any Major news will change the flow , always look out for crazy news in the World.
Will we get a Halloween 🎃 shock tmr ? hahaha [LOL] [Helpless] mm chai la
So far Apple did better than expected, the rest of Faang down the 🚾 . Buy the dip ? errr all depends on the FOMC next week and tonite PCE result. 75 bps for Nov , 50-75 bps for Dec. At least for this Year. Next 2 quarters will be as bad.
The Bad :
If tonite PCE still hot , down we go to test 357. If next wk FOMC more bad surprises, back to 348 or lower.
The Good (maybe)
Treasury is breaking, UK , JP , ECB etc. All stretched to the limit. When JP n China start to dump Treasury, Hallelujah, hell break loose [Surprised]. So what so good about this ? [Doubt] .... well the theory is Fed will have to U turn. 要不，大家抱着一起死.
Will we crash like 2008 ?
My personal take. Not likely as long as Fed dont crash the bond Treasury. In 2008 CDO crisis was hidden, derivatives, Casino gambling. This time Fed has more control over bonds. (why u think Credit suisse didnt bankrupt) [Tongue]
My take. Basically No news because most already know next yr 75bps (per hike) is unlikely. Further big hike like this will cause the treasury market to crack more. If treasury market collapse, God Save the Queen (ops sorry she is gone)
So WJ news is just for them to earn Option money.
Next week what to expect? Monday may continue to rally but dont think it will pass over 383.
Tues to Fri , big tech earnings. Market will move according to their earnings. Personally I dont think they will do well [lovely] [Speechless]
Final word. The more it rally next week, the more Fed will be hawkish on 2nd Nov FOMC [Mybad] (Jpowell will slap everyone [LOL])
[Comfort] [OMG]
I summarise some of the key pts for Fri moves.
Early of the day was down as expected , bond yields were high.
Bond yields and dollar is inverse related to Stock markets ie yields/dollar up , stock market likely down.
Yields - big moves and shot up to all time high on early Friday so market down. The cause ? likely due to YEN (japan banks). YEN dropped too much and japan central bank stepped in.
Those changed YEN early this week will be happy , can go Japan for holidays [Sly] [Grin]
But this wont last long. Eventually the yields will recover upward.
Dropped below 366. Snap earning 💩 sent SPY agent jamesbond down to 364. Now tide has changed more to downside. Basically we back to Monday again.
Next week will have alot of Big moves , 大风大浪 [Surprised] [OMG]
For those lazy to read all the crazy news. So what happened on Fri.
started off red in early session as the bond yields shot up. [Surprised]
Later surprisingly Fed came to the rescue [Grin] There are news Fed MAY reduce rate hike ie increment lesser bps 50- or 25 bps in 2023. So 75bps in Nov , 50-75bps in Dec. And market rally.
[Grin] pre Market open on Wed ... post market gain all wipe out . [Surprised]
Magic ... [Grin] [Cool]
Bull says .. strong up , long 3rd leg doji ... Buy buy buy
Bear says ... didnt close above Friday . No more steam ... down down down.
Basically we are back to last Thurs. Wait for it to stay above 369 [Grin]
Today look for ? watch 366 if remain below this , likely retest 357 or even 348.