My view on what will happen next month

Jo_Tan
2022-11-03

So the market is mixed. And surely confused after this rate hike (2 Nov). While Powell mentioned that the rate hikes would continue, he mentioned that the pace could decrease. High but not so fast? 

Indeed the market has bittersweet feelings on this. But this is what I think will happen. I feel that what the market has feared has happen, a 75 BPS. In that sense, they are now more assured because what was feared has come to pass. But now, there is a possibility that there may be no rate in Dec, but one in Jan 23, albeit an equal or higher one. In this sense, there may be room for a rally somewhere... Somewhere. However, Dec is traditionally a month where traders take a break, so this may dampen spirits (perhaps one in Nov, before Dec?).

But whatever it is, one should continue to be wary. I think that defensive stocks can now take centerstage and if I may, bank/financial stocks like $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$. Back in Feb this year, while it was thought bank stock prices would rise due to interest rates, it fell in Mar because of the macro situation. However, it feels likely these stocks may now benefit from the high interest rates this month.


@TigerStars@CaptainTiger@MillionaireTiger

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Comments

  • Matrix Rev
    2022-11-03
    Matrix Rev
    高利息好于银行
  • Svengers19
    2022-11-04
    Svengers19
    謝謝分享
  • BriBri
    2022-11-04
    BriBri
    Perhaps more dividend as well
  • Sandyboy
    2022-11-04
    Sandyboy
    对银行来说,加息应该会增加利润,因为现金成本保持不变。
    • bernardtayetReplyJo_Tan
      真的。同意。谢谢
    • Sandyboy
      是的,这是一种交易。
    • Jo_Tan
      但这可能会促使贷款减少,因为现在资金更多了实验
  • KDDM
    2022-11-04
    KDDM
    thanks Jo
  • BK99
    2022-11-04
    BK99
    Buy OCBC and stay with the Investment until 2023 end ! Meanwhile milk the dividends and wait for it to rise til $14.00 at least and make a huge capital gain
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