My view on what will happen next month

Jo Tan
2022-11-03

So the market is mixed. And surely confused after this rate hike (2 Nov). While Powell mentioned that the rate hikes would continue, he mentioned that the pace could decrease. High but not so fast? 

Indeed the market has bittersweet feelings on this. But this is what I think will happen. I feel that what the market has feared has happen, a 75 BPS. In that sense, they are now more assured because what was feared has come to pass. But now, there is a possibility that there may be no rate in Dec, but one in Jan 23, albeit an equal or higher one. In this sense, there may be room for a rally somewhere... Somewhere. However, Dec is traditionally a month where traders take a break, so this may dampen spirits (perhaps one in Nov, before Dec?).

But whatever it is, one should continue to be wary. I think that defensive stocks can now take centerstage and if I may, bank/financial stocks like $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$. Back in Feb this year, while it was thought bank stock prices would rise due to interest rates, it fell in Mar because of the macro situation. However, it feels likely these stocks may now benefit from the high interest rates this month.


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Comments

  • Matrix Rev
    2022-11-03
    Matrix Rev
    high interest good for bank
  • Svengers19
    2022-11-04
    Svengers19
    Thanks for sharing
  • BriBri
    2022-11-04
    BriBri
    Perhaps more dividend as well
  • Sandyboy
    2022-11-04
    Sandyboy
    For banks the interest rate hike shoukd increase profits as the cost of cash remains the same.
  • KDDM
    2022-11-04
    KDDM
    thanks Jo
  • BK99
    2022-11-04
    BK99
    Buy OCBC and stay with the Investment until 2023 end ! Meanwhile milk the dividends and wait for it to rise til $14.00 at least and make a huge capital gain
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