Tesla Q4 Record Delivery

Tesla is expected to release its fourth-quarter and full-year delivery and production reports on January 2. The market generally expects fourth-quarter delivery data to exceed the company's record high of 484,507 vehicles in the same period last year. Analysts estimate that Tesla will deliver about 506,763 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Among them, the delivery volume of Model 3/Model Y was 476,398 units, and the delivery volume of all other models was 30,365 units. Improving demand in key markets, especially China, has contributed to Tesla's strong delivery pipeline. Tesla has also offered incentives in the U.S. and international markets, including a zero-coupon car purchase finance policy for the purchase of the new Model 3 and Model Y. However, to exceed the total deliveries of more than 1.8 million vehicles for the whole of 2023, Tesla needs to deliver at least about 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the market's expectation of 506,763 vehicles means that Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in 2024 will reach 1,801,709 vehicles, which is lower than 1,808,581 vehicles in 2023. The company's full-year "slight growth" expectation provided in the latest financial report will fail. But looking ahead, analysts remain confident of Tesla's 2025 delivery growth and expect the electric vehicle giant to deliver more than 2 million vehicles this year, a number Musk's first target for 2023. Tesla doesn't typically provide specific delivery guidance for the coming year in its fourth-quarter delivery report, but an earnings call later in January may include some forecasts. As of Tuesday's close, Tesla's stock price fell 3.25%, and it has risen more than 62% for the whole of 2024. Delivery report has little impact Although the final number of deliveries may be lower than the previous year, in the eyes of analysts, this report may have little impact on Tesla's stock price. UBS said in a note that it expects Tesla to deliver about 510,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, up 5% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter. "Given the AI-driven stock narrative, we don't think delivery results will make as much sense as they have in the past," UBS analysts noted, highlighting that the impact of delivery data on Tesla stock performance has weakened compared to earlier days. Tesla's energy storage business is also worthy of attention. UBS's energy storage deployment will reach 9.1 GWh this quarter, an increase of 32% from the previous quarter. The bank noted that this estimate is very close to the consensus estimate of 9.6 GWh. However, UBS warned of "volatile energy storage deployment," which makes forecasts less precise. Following the delivery report, the focus will shift to Tesla's earnings call in late January. UBS emphasized that investor attention is likely to be focused on Musk's comments, particularly on guidance and AI developments for 2025, rather than purely financial metrics. By 2025, Tesla aims to grow sales by 20% to 30% to 2.2 million to 2.4 million vehicles, beating UBS and consensus forecasts of 1.9 million and 2 million vehicles. The bank said new models, including budget models expected to launch early this year and the new Model Y, could drive those numbers. Trends are mixed across regions, says UBS