More 50bps! Which "Rate-Cut" Assets Will You Invest In?

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari commented to the media that he agrees a 50-basis-point rate cut is appropriate, although he could also support a 25-basis-point cut. Kashkari believes that it may be necessary to cut rates by another two 25-basis points by the end of the year. With the 50bps rate cut confirmed, can TLT start a new uptrend? Additionally, the rate cut might benefit small and mid-cap growth stocks. Will you choose IWM or ARKK?

avatarWallStreet_Tiger
10-22

Will the Fed Pause Rate Cuts in November?

In his August speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell shifted focus from inflation to the labor market, hinting at last month’s 50-basis-point rate cut. However, Fed officials later clarified that they expect to move forward with smaller cuts of 25 basis points.Recently, the U.S. economy has surprised many with unexpected strength. From the impressive employment report earlier this month to last week's higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), the momentum is undeniable. If the Fed is data-driven, they might conclude that the economy is stronger now than it was in early October.Last Thursday, retail sales data came in, showing a 0.4% month-over-month increase, surpassing the expected 0.3%. Even more impressive was a 0.5% rise in "core" retail sales, significan
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Will the Fed Pause Rate Cuts in November?
avatarCallum_Thomas
10-25

Daily Charts - Rate Cuts are coming in thick and fast

1.Rate Cuts are coming in thick and fast, and that's historically been quite a good thing for Global Equities (albeit mileage may vary; recessions and crises can complicate things!)2.ALSO, add Costco $Costco(COST)$ selling-out of 1 ounce Gold Bars (individuals seem eager to get their hands on physical gold)Image3.Developed (ex-US) peaked vs US stocks in the 80's and it's been almost a one-way road ever since...Will that trend ever end? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
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Daily Charts - Rate Cuts are coming in thick and fast
avatarWallStreet_Tiger
10-15

Is the Fed Likely to Cut Rates Only Once?

Bond markets showed increasing skepticism about the Fed delivering two more rate cuts this year. Currently, traders see only about a 20% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in November or December. Even after last Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report, the swaps market still suggests that by the end of the year, the Fed will cut rates by over 50 basis points, potentially through two consecutive cuts.This week, U.S. Treasury bonds fell. Bloomberg's U.S. Bond Index is set for a fourth straight week of declines, marking the worst performance since April. The 10-year Treasury yield is back above 4%, while the 30-year yield hit 4.41%, the highest since July 30.This shift reflects a string of mixed economic reports from the U.S., which have failed to give the Fed a strong reason to ease mon
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Is the Fed Likely to Cut Rates Only Once?
avatarMilkTeaBro
10-01

Sep 2024 Update For Alice

Followed the Aug 2024 update, Dividend stocks great opportunity, Here is Sep 2024 Update For Alice: Thanks to my wife, family always is more important than wealth. My dear Alice, First, I want to take this opportunity to express my gratitude for your trust in me. You let me to manage my salary since from we married. As a husband and a father, responsible, disciplined finance management is necessary, finished the house loan, then try to avoid investment loss and beat inflation become my financial goals. Started from Jan 2022, I call this investment campaign 'Fed interest hike'. Followed the FOMC meeting pace,  I gradually built up SG, HK dividend stocks and Emerging markets ETF. Interest higher and longer was not in my original expectations, about 50k paper loss at Oct 2023. I bel
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Sep 2024 Update For Alice
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
09-25

How DOJ sues Visa's monopoly change your portfolio?

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) plans to file an antitrust lawsuit against VISA.The legal action, which will sue the payment technology company in federal court, is expected to start as soon as Tuesday. Antitrust regulators are poised to accuse $Visa(V)$ of engaging in behavior that prevents competitors from entering the debit card market.This includes entering into exclusivity contracts that impede the development of rival payment networks and preventing tech companies from entering the market, according to the report.What does the DOJ charge?The DOJ's statement says: We allege that VISA has illegally amassed power to charge fees far in excess of what it might charge in a competitive market.Raising transaction fees through monopolization.VISA p
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How DOJ sues Visa's monopoly change your portfolio?
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
09-19

What should investors care about after first 50bps rate cut?

The 50 basis point rate cut to start the cycle surprised at least half of investors.There are 25 basis points is the compensation for July.Many investors in the market point of view is that July can open the rate cut, and Powell in order to "stabilize" hard to see two more months of data off to September.The 50 basis points, in fact, is 25 basis points in September, plus 25 basis points in July compensation!Even 50 basis points, still behind the curve.According to the Fed's own point of view, this time is "calibrated policy stance" - do not want to fall behind the curve, but also do not want to signal the risk of recession, so the action to see at first glance seems to be very large, in fact, just behind the market too much to add.For the first time did not give the market "clear signal".P
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What should investors care about after first 50bps rate cut?
avatarETF Tracker
09-19

Fed Rate Cut Sparks Opportunity: Small-Cap Sectors Ready for Growth

With the Federal Reserve poised to release its “rate-cut magic,” small-cap sectors are gearing up to seize the opportunities presented by the latest round of interest rate reductions. The Fed’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% marks the first rate cut since 2020, following a series of rate hikes that had elevated rates to their highest level in 23 years.While the Russell 2000 index has surged by 5% in anticipation of the rate cut, not all small-cap stocks will benefit equally from the lower borrowing costs. So, which sectors should investors focus on, and which ETFs offer the best opportunities?Financial Sector: Rate Cuts Boost Financial FirmsSmall-cap financial companies, including regional banks, insurance firms, and lending instituti
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Fed Rate Cut Sparks Opportunity: Small-Cap Sectors Ready for Growth
avatarOptionsAura
09-19

How to Safely Go Long on U.S. Treasuries in the Rate Cut Cycle?

In the early hours of September 19, the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate cut, marking its first reduction since March 2020.Since 1984, the U.S. has experienced six rate cut cycles:1984-1986: 26 cuts over 23 months, totaling 562.5 bps.1989-1992: 24 cuts over 38 months, totaling 681.25 bps.1995-1998: 7 cuts over 40 months, totaling 125 bps.2001-2003: 13 cuts over 29 months, totaling 550 bps.2007-2008: 10 cuts over 14 months, totaling 500 bps.2019-2020: 5 cuts over 7 months, totaling 225 bps.In all six cycles, the 10-year Treasury yield declined. After the rate cut cycle ended, the yield typically rebounded. Here’s how it breaks down:First Three Months Post-Cut: Anticipation of cuts leads to a notable drop in yields, and the decline was significantly higher than that of other stages, avera
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How to Safely Go Long on U.S. Treasuries in the Rate Cut Cycle?
avatarWallStreet_Tiger
09-19

Which asset would you choose after Fed's 50bps rate cut?

Yesterday, after Fed announced a 50bps rate cut, US stocks experienced a roller-coaster ride. Powell’s speech suggests that the 25bps intended for July could be included in the September cut. However, Powell also expressed a hawkish stance, indicating that the Fed won’t continue cutting rates at this pace.50 bps rate cut is a significant catalyst for the market.The most likely beneficiaries of the rate cut are U.S. Treasury bonds and small-cap growth stocks. BU.S. Treasury prices have a predictable upward trajectory. However, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ closed at $99 yesterday, presenting a good buying opportunity.Moreover, lower borrowing costs for small and medium-sized companies will improve their profitability. As a result,
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Which asset would you choose after Fed's 50bps rate cut?
avatarJacksNiffler
09-24

Who Sold AAPL on Sep.20?

On September 20, it was clear that there was a move that Rebalancing of $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ brought $Apple(AAPL)$ $10 billion in inflows, but the end of the day for AAPL was extremely bizarre.Half an hour before the close, AAPL saw a massive amount of money slamming the market in the face of other negative sentiment in the broader market;Trading volume in the last 10 minutes exceeded 2 million shares, more than the entire day's trading volume, and the day's trading volume was four times that of weekdays;The only thing that can offset the buying by passive index funds is the strength of institutional investors.The number of Apple shareholders who have the ability to reduce their holdin
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Who Sold AAPL on Sep.20?
avatarJacksNiffler
09-25

Trade NVDA Volatility before November

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ is once again leading tech stocks and taking the broader market to new highs.There are two main factors that have affected NVIDIA sentiment recently:Jen-Hsun Huang's reduction in his holdings.But according to a Barron's blurb, he has already completed his share of the previously announced reduction;Blackwell expectations.According to $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ projections, in Q4 alone, NVIDIA could earn about $10 billion in revenue from Blackwell chips alone.This can be partly understood as incremental revenue with higher margins.In fact, we can see that since the stock split, NVIDIA stock has gone back and forth for two cycles with gradually decreasing volatility.From a technical point of vie
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Trade NVDA Volatility before November
avatarSamlunch
09-20
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$   The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve can have different impacts on TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) and ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF), so your choice depends on your investment goals and risk tolerance. TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) - Interest Rate Sensitivity: TLT is highly sensitive to interest rate changes. When interest rates fall, the price of long-term bonds typically rises, which can benefit TLT. This makes TLT a good option if you expect rates to continue falling. - Stability: TLT is generally considered a safer investment com
2Reply
avatarPinkspider
09-25

Open Ai

BREAKING FROM BLOOMBERG: OPENAI PITCHED THE WHITEHOUSE ON BUILDING 5-GIGAWATT DATA CENTERS AND CEO SAM ALTMAN MET WITH WHITE HOUSE OFFICIALS EALIER THIS MONTH. Two things are becoming obvious: First, Sam Altman seems to be in all the important conversations around AI. Whether it's getting ChatGPT to be the default for the new iPhone or convincing the White House to care more about building data centers... Second, we need more energy. We needed it yesterday. If we are going to build AGI, we just need more data centers. Now the $MSFT Blackrock new $30B fund continues to make more sense. The Microsoft $CEG Energy deal makes more sense. $AAPL & $NVDA deciding to invest in the new OpenAI $150B funding round makes more sense. Also, $TSLA Tesla energy continues to be underrated as a segment
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Open Ai
avatarShernice軒嬣 2000
09-19
Market Shift:Big Caps Lose Steam, Small Caps Shine $Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.)(CART)$   $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  $Microsoft(MSFT)$  $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  $Alphabet(GOOG)$  The initial rate-cut boost has faded for the "Magnificent 7" big cap stocks, with gains retracting due to potential fund reallocation or reassessment of growth prospects.Market Shift: Big Caps Lose Steam, Small Caps Shine Meanwhile, small cap stocks are surging, with some reaching 52-week highs. This suggests investo
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avatarHLPA
09-21
Whether the FED cut the rates or not doe not matter to me. Markets move up and down daily regardless of the FED moves. In this respect, trade momentum stocks especially those magnificient  AI stocks namely AAPL, META,MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMD, TSLA, AMZN. The prices of these stocks gyrate alot at each tradimg session and after doing your due dilogence wait for the lows and pick them up and sell off when they move upwards again on the same ttading day. Even small profits made by doing these swing trades all add up to a good profit for the day. For myself, scalping for profits is better than to buy and hold to wait for a bigger profit which may take a long time to mature. Yes, someone did stae that the big money is in the waiting but I would rather take in smaller profits daily a
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avatarantiti
09-24
Fed officials Bostic and Neel Kashkari both indicated that the Fed may implement two more 25bps rate cuts this year. However, the interest rate futures market appears more aggressive, with bets on a 50 bps cut in November nearly equal to those for a 25 bps cut.Despite Powell stating last Wednesday that a 50 bps cut should not be considered normal, traders seem to interpret the Fed's stance differently. They generally believe the Fed is more dovish than it appears, leading to increasing expectations for a 50 bps cut in November. Several Wall Street banks have raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6000 based on this dovish outlook.
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avatarPinkspider
09-25

Warren Buffet selling $863m more.

arren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, $BRK.B, has sold an additional $863 million of Bank of America,$Bank of America(BAC)$  , stock.Buffet is laughing all the way out of his bank. Does he knows something we don’t ? Why is he liquidating so much and holding the cash ?  
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Warren Buffet selling $863m more.
avatarPinkspider
09-26

Tesla 3 days green rally into close.

Three days in a row, we have high volume end of day close on a rally on $TSLA. Classic, Institutional traders are using Algo to accumulate throughout the day, and then making large fills end of day. This is not bearish behaviour.$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  
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Tesla 3 days green rally into close.
avatarSpiders
09-21
I currently hold TLT and plan to buy more if its price drops. My strategy is focused on the long term as I believe TLT will perform well over time. In addition to that, I am actively looking to diversify my portfolio and ARKK is on my radar as a potential investment.
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avatarPinkspider
09-25

Bloomberg says Trump would be better for the market

A Trump win would be better for stocks than Harris, per Bloomberg:
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Bloomberg says Trump would be better for the market