The rise of AI poses a threat to software stocks. A powerful enough AI can customise a company’s software, or at least call into question the value of standardised software that costs more than an AI subscription and doesn’t fully suit a business’s operating needs. Some companies may switch to AI to disintermediate software altogether, which would mean less revenue for software companies. But the reality is that most software stocks are still reporting revenue growth. That’s because the stock market is forward looking, and prices in the future impact on software fundamentals well in advance. That said, investors may have gotten too pessimistic on software and too optimistic on AI. In July, overleveraged AI bets got unwound and software stocks soared. The proxy VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH

For the longest time, Microsoft lumped its cloud business unit Azure together with other businesses like GitHub, Security Copilot and healthcare cloud revenue. That made it hard for investors to know how fast Azure was really growing. Not anymore. Microsoft has finally decided to report Azure separately. Revenue for the June quarter was up 42% YoY, from US$20.7b to US$29.4b. FY2026 Azure revenue came in at US$101.9b, up 40% from US$72.6b. Quarterly Azure revenue accelerated from US$22.4b to $24.1b to $26.0b to $29.4b through FY26. Azure isn’t merely large, growth actually accelerated into Q4 despite the increasingly bigger base. Broadcom is super plugged into the AI value chain. It doesn’t just produce AI chips for companies like Google, it also makes the networking chips needed to move hu

News and my thoughts from the past week (31Aug2026) JPMorgan has said that there may be a large-scale food supply crisis in the next year. - Unusual Whale Bill Gates accuses the tech industry of knowingly downplaying AI's risks because too much money is at stake. Executives are worried in private but won't say so publicly, he told the NYT. Their reasoning, in his words: "It's bad for us — the next trillion dollars we're trying to raise." Gates says the industry blew past milestones it once said would warrant caution: models escaping their creators' control, AI producing bioweapon recipes. - X user International Cyber Digest AI agents are now using 5x more tokens than humans - X user Kalshi David Sacks: “I got bad news for you, Chamath, an open source ban is coming. They're not going to cal

Market Outlook of S&P500 (31Aug2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This shows a bullish trend with a potential for reversal. Chaikin Money Flow CMF index shows a score of -0.10. This implies more selling momentum than buying momentum. Other Technical Analysis Based on the daily

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 31Aug2026) Global Manufacturing Signals China’s August Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. This release is especially important because China accounts for nearly one-third of global manufacturing output, so a weaker reading could point to softer global demand. Chicago PMI for August is forecast at 57.8, suggesting continued expansion in production and a potentially bullish signal for markets. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August is forecast at 53.2, also pointing to expansion. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is forecast at 55.3, indicating further growth in manufacturing activity. ISM Manufacturing Prices for August will be an important gauge of producer cost pressures, which may eve

News and my thoughts from the past week (17Aug2026) OpenAI lost its chief revenue officer, its COO, its product chief, its VP, its head of marketing, its head of ethics, its head of safety, and its chief futurist in the span of a few months. The CRO, Denise Dresser, left after eight months and walked away from what would've been a huge IPO payout. OpenAI is valued at $852 billion and filed its IPO paperwork in June. Investors told CNBC they were surprised by Dresser's exit. - X user Hedgie Fed official Hammack calls to immediately raise interest rates. - X user Watcher Guru Jamie Dimon warns America could lose its reserve currency status within 25 years. @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$<

Market Outlook of S&P500 (17Aug2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on an uptrend. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This shows a bullish trend. Chaikin Money Flow CMF index shows a score of -0.06. This implies more selling momentum than buying momentum. Other Technical Analysis Based on the daily interval, technical a

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 17Aug2026) Federal Reserve Focus The FOMC meeting minutes will be released this week and will be closely watched for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Investors will look for guidance on how policymakers are assessing inflation, employment conditions, and the likely path of interest rates. Key Economic Indicators Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: The August reading will be released this week. The previous figure stood at 41.4, indicating contraction in the sector. Initial Jobless Claims: The latest claims data will also be announced, following a previous reading of 209,000. This will be an important labour-market indicator as the Federal Reserve balances inflation control with employment conditions. Crude Oil Inventories: Inve

Tonight is the most loaded single session of the 2026 earnings season. At 2pm ET the Fed announces. At 2:30pm Warsh speaks. After the close, Microsoft and Meta report. These are not independent events. They form a chain: the Fed sets the discount rate applied to every future dollar of AI spending, and then Microsoft and Meta immediately show whether those future dollars are materialising fast enough to justify the capex. If the Fed holds and sounds balanced, and both MSFT and META beat, the AI trade gets its first clean confirmation in months. If any one of the three goes wrong, the dominoes fall in sequence. Test One — The Fed at 2pm ET The base case is a hold at 3.50 to 3.75%. CME FedWatch currently assigns 64% probability to no change. But this is the second-most uncertain FOMC meeting

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is set to report its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on Thursday, July 30, 2026, after the market closes (5:00 PM ET). Heading into the print, shares are trading around $231–$232. While Amazon has beaten earnings expectations in seven of the past eight quarters, recent market sensitivity around big-tech AI capital expenditures has driven heightened volatility across the hyperscaler group. Key Metrics to Watch Can Amazon's Massive AI Investments Be "Honored" (Monetized)? Yes. Unlike speculative software plays, Amazon’s AI spend is showing concrete structural returns across three key pillars: Custom Silicon Momentum: Amazon’s in-house AI chips (Trainium and Inferentia) reduce dependency on third-party GPU bottlenecks. Management noted cus

AMZN