Two ‘more’ pertinent economic reports were out yesterday, Tue 29 Apr 2025 : US consumer confidence index by The Conference Board. Jobs opening and labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Needless to say, both were disappointing, to put it mildly. Consumer Confidence Index - April 2025. Consumer confidence for April 2025, sank -7.9 points to 86, its lowest level since May 2020. (see above) It’s a larger decline than economists’ projection of 87.7. Another report, US’s Expectations Index, that captures people’s outlook on the economy, plummeted -12.5 points this month to 54.4, also the lowest level since October 2011. It is well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. (see below) In the release, the Conference Board said consumers exp

On Mon, 14 Apr 2025, the S&P 500 reached an ominous-sounding milestone even as stocks largely added to their gains from last week’s rebound. When trading ended at 4pm, the large-cap index managed to tally a “death cross” — its first since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. S&P 500 - 14 Apr 2025 - Death Cross !! What is a “Death Cross” ? A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (ma) of a stock or index dips below its 200-day ma. Technical analysts interpret it as a sign that a correction could be metastasizing into a deeper downtrend. Did You Know ? As US stocks continue to struggle of late in 2025, a death cross has already appeared to: The small-cap Russell 2000 index. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , it has flashed this pat

(Note: This article mainly examines the situation from the perspectives of corporate earnings expectations, investor sentiment, valuation expectations, technical analysis, and historical data. The data is sourced from publicly available materials. The views are for discussion purposes only and should not be taken as direct investment advice.)Recently, Trump's new tariff policy has disrupted the market and even raised expectations of an economic recession. To determine whether the economy is heading towards a recession, it is necessary to continue monitoring the negative impacts brought about by Trump's trade policies and policy uncertainties:Are the Q2 GDP growth rate, consumer confidence index, manufacturing and services indices, leading economic indicators (LEI), and non-farm employment

💰Major indices opened high and continued to rise, with most tech stocks seeing green.💹 $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$/$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$/$Broadcom(AVGO)$ : Catch those stalwart performers in the semiconductor sector.📣 Stay tuned and supercharge purchasing power with CashBoost!The market's been soaring, as Trump's words brought some cheer, and the Fed's signals gets clear.| Market recapThe market has seen consecutive gains on Wednesday and Thursday, accumulating over 5% since Tuesday. A more conciliatory stance from Trump, combined with positive signals from the Federal Reserve, has buoyed the market. Stocks that were at recent price lows, particularly large te

Source from YOUTUBESource from YOUTUBEBased on the discussion in the Stansberry Investor Hour, here are some key points explaining why the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ might fall in the next 10 years:USD index Monthly chart, by May 6th 2026Monetary Policy and InflationMoney Printing and Inflation: Larry Leard argues that the current monetary system is under stress and is essentially broken. The government has been engaging in significant money printing to cover large and growing deficits. This money printing is almost a mathematical certainty given the current economic situation. As a result, inflation is likely to become a persistent problem. When inflation rises, the value of the dollar typically falls because it erodes the purchasing p

Options Plays Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision Today, attention is on the FOMC policy decision . The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99% chance the Fed will keep rates at 4.25%-4.5%, following stronger-than-expected April jobs data. While no rate change is expected, markets will react to Powell’s comments on two key issues: managing inflation risks from tariffs and signs of economic slowing. Powell faces a tough choice. If he sounds too dovish (leaning toward rate cuts), it might fail to control inflation from new tariffs. If too hawkish (keeping rates high), it could hurt economic growth. Nick Timiraos, a well-known Fed reporter, notes the central bank risks causing either a recession or stubborn inflation no matter what it does. Bloomberg analysts expect Powell to focus on fighting inflation, while

Public Holidays The USA, Hong Kong & Singapore have no public holidays in the coming week. America, Hong Kong and Singapore celebrate Good Friday on 18 Apr 2025. I wish you all a great weekend as Christians celebrate the love, sacrifice, and victory of Jesus. Economic Calendar (14Apr25) Notable Highlights China's GDP (Q1) is expected at 5.2% YoY (vs. 5.4% prior). This can be a good indicator of both Chinese production and global consumption. The Core Retail Sales (Mar) are forecasted at 0.4% MoM (vs. 0.3%), and Retail Sales at 1.4% MoM (vs. 0.2%). The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) is forecasted at 3.1 (vs. 12.5). From investing dot com A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of

$S&P 500(.SPX) Market Analysis: S&P 500's Death Cross, Powell’s Stance, and the Path Ahead The S&P 500’s recent formation of a "death cross" (50-day moving average below 200-day) and subsequent volatility have intensified debates about whether the index will stabilize, form a double bottom, or plunge further. Here’s a synthesized outlook based on technicals, fundamentals, and geopolitical risks: 1. Death Cross Context: Not All Doom and Gloom - *Historical Precedent*: While the death cross is traditionally seen as a bearish signal, historical data shows mixed outcomes. In 54% of cases since 1971, the S&P 500 had already hit its lowest point before the death cross formed, suggesting potential for a rebound . - Example: The March 2020 death cross preceded a 50% rally with

East Asia  $CSOP LOW CARBON US$(LCU.SI)$ WTD return: +0.97% LCU gained WTD in USD and gains were led by consumer discretionary, communication services and industrials by sectors and $TENCENT(00700)$ , $MEITUAN(MPNGF)$ and $BABA-W(09988)$ by individual firms. According to Bloomberg data, Tencent led Hong Kong’s share buybacks in April. Meanwhile, Meituan rose due to robust hotel bookings and travel-related orders during China’s labor day holiday. $CSOP SEA TECH ETF US$(SQU.SI)$ WTD return: +0.87% SQU rose WTD in USD and gains were primarily attributable to MD Entert

In today’s volatile market, investors are grappling with a combination of geopolitical risks, economic shifts, and market corrections that are shaping investment strategies. With recent market volatility, changes in trade policies, and significant corporate developments, it's crucial to take a measured approach when deciding whether to "buy the dip" or "sell the rally." In this blog post, we synthesize insights from recent analyses to help you navigate these uncertain times and refine your investment strategy. 1. The Market Pulse: Key Developments Citi’s Downgrade of U.S. Equities: A Shift in Market Sentiment In a notable move, Citigroup downgraded U.S. equities from "Overweight" to "Neutral" in early March 2025. This marked a significant shift, with the bank also upgrading Chinese stocks.

The stock market is a high-stakes casino right now, and the Federal Reserve is spinning the wheel. With inflation stubbornly hovering at 3.1% in March 2025 and the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.62%, investors are sweating bullets. The Nasdaq has shed 5.1% this month, closing at 17,342.19, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average clings to 42,108.63 after a 4.2% drop. Whispers of a rate hike—or a surprise pause—are swirling, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Will the Fed’s next move tank growth stocks or ignite a relief rally? Let’s break it down with fresh data, market vibes, and trading plays to ride the wave. The Fed’s Tightrope: Inflation vs. Growth Inflation’s refusing to back down, clocking in at 3.1% last month—above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, jobless claims ticked up to 21

My Investing Muse (05May25) Layoffs, Delinquency & Closure news UPS has revealed plans to cut 20,000 jobs across its U.S. network, while Penske Logistics will eliminate over 300 positions in Missouri. US Xpress in Chattanooga, Tennessee, has also announced 56 job cuts. - FreightWaves Forever 21 is shuttering all 354 of its leased U.S. stores on May 1, 2025. It has been in the midst of massive liquidation sales across the country; sales of up to 60% off were seen throughout April. Mazda will shut down assembly lines for some of its CX-50 production in Canada at its Huntsville, Alabama plant, the first major automaker to halt U.S. production because of the tariffs. - Pedirayudas Layoffs and bankruptcies hit multiple sectors of the supply chain throughout April, as new or soon-to-be-impos

USD is in trouble... I have said that 2 years ago (dated April 2023) in a series of articles titled, "US pushes China towards world dominance Series (5 Parts Series)".  Not sure if anyone had read that, not to mention remember those... Having said that, when I wrote those, even though I had mentioned Donald Trump as one of the main culprit for the demise of the dollar, the current scenario is not one I had predicted. The rest of those 5 part-series remains intact. I think 🐯 should give those articles another review and share with the readers! @TigerStars  I would love to share them here again (but not sure how to link them). Each article is a heavyweight on their own right and worth a read... I will probably repost

$S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $NASDAQ(. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ )$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ )$ As of April 16, 2025, the S&P 500 faces a critical juncture. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has dashed hopes of a market bailout, stating, “Our focus is on inflation, not equity prices.” Meanwhile, Citi equity strategists, led by Beata Manthey, have downgraded the U.S. stock market from Overweight to Neutral, pointing to fading U.S. exceptionalism amid challenges like Deepseek, Europe’s fiscal stance, and rising trade tensions. With the index hovering near key support levels, is a double bottom forming, or are we headed for 5000—or low

'Sell in May and Go Away' Will the Seasonality Hold True This Year? The longstanding stock market saying "sell in May and go away" advises investors to sell their stocks in May and re-enter the market in November. This strategy is rooted in the historical trend of markets performing worse in the summer months compared to the winter in the northern hemisphere. In most years, selling in May and taking a break from the market doesn't usually make much sense. However, in 2025, with Trump's tariff war bringing new developments daily, the market volatility is at an all-time high. It seems more tempting than ever to sell stocks and move into bonds, GICs (guaranteed investment certificates), cash, or cash equivalents. What Does History Tell Us? A 2023 study conducted by Manulife Investment Managem