$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just made new ATHs while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ is still stuck. History says we crash 20% from here. But hereβs why we donβt π This EXACT divergence has happened 3 times before. Once it led to a multi-year bull run. Twice it preceded 20%+ crashes. How could the same setup have such different results? Here's how to tell which one you're dealing with: π» 2007 & 2018: One tired sector carried the index to its final high. Narrow leadership, no confirmation underneath. Both topped within months π 2013: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ broke out while $Invesco QQQ