OguzO Capitalist
OguzO Capitalist
Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter
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Trading Ideas: UNH, NVO& ASML

1. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ has 100% market share in EUVL machines.Down 60% from highs. $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ controls 40% of global insulin and 54% of GLP-1 market.Down 67% from highs. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ is the largest healthcare company in the world and dominates the US market.Down 63% from highs.Sometimes it’s easy.2.Everybody when NVO was at $150: “Give it to me at $100.”NVO at $48: “I am not buying because..”Everybody knows what’s the right thing to do, they just don’t have the stomach.Image3. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ is now trading at 8 times operating cash flow…This is the largest healthcare company in the world, poised
Trading Ideas: UNH, NVO& ASML

Here is Why NVO is a 2x Opportunity Now

1/ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ was once a market darling, now everybody hates it.Yet, growth is still strong, the oral Wegovy is coming this quarter, and it has the strongest pipeline in weight-loss drugs.Here is why NVO is a 2x opportunity now: 🧵2/ Let's set the stage first: What does NVO do?NVO is the global leader in diabetes treatment with a 33% market share.This market has three main segments:- Oral Anti-Diabetes drugs- Insulin- GLP-1NVO holds the leadership position in all these markets.Image3/ It currently controls 42% of the global insulin market.This has traditionally been Novo Nordisk's biggest business.However, the balance is shifting.Last year, insulin made up only 18% of the shares, while GLP-1 products made up 50% of all sales.Image4/ NVO
Here is Why NVO is a 2x Opportunity Now

Trading Ideas: UNH& TMDX

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!1. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ is now the 10th most held stock by superinvestors according to Dataroma.This will prove a generational buying opportunity.Healthcare now is financials in 2008. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $Elevance Health(ELV)$ $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$Image2.Chris Davis added 1 million shares of $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ last quarter at an average price of $311.Chris Davis isn’t your ordinary hedge fund manager, he is one of the best value investors of our time.When he does something, we pay attention.Image3.
Trading Ideas: UNH& TMDX

Here is Why UNH is an Asymmetric Opportunity Now

1/ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ is one of my highest conviction stocks for the next 5 years.It is an easy 3x from the current levels.Here is why UNH is an asymmetric opportunity now: 🧵2/ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ is dominating healthcare in the US.As a group, UnitedHealth owns:- Largest health insurer in the US- Largest care delivery network- Largest pharmacy benefit managerThese businesses are integrated under one roof, making it a vertically integrated giant.Image3/ Its vertical integration allows it to keep more money in the system compared to the competitors.Clients pay policy premiums to UnitedHealthcare.When they need health services, they primarily use Optum.UnitedHealthcare pays Optum, thus UNH group avoids premiu
Here is Why UNH is an Asymmetric Opportunity Now

Here is my AMD Investment Thesis!

1/ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ has just signed a $100 billion chip deal with OpenAI.This is just the beginning.It has a path to become a $1 trillion company as it's catching up with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ in both hardware and software.Here is my AMD investment thesis: 🧵Lisa Su holding two semiconductor chips in her hands. She stands in front of a large AMD logo on a dark background.2/ AI infrastructure spending is accelerating.Most people still don't see what's coming.Jensen Huang thinks that annual AI-chip spending will reach $1 trillion by the end of this decade.This is a massive total addressable market for both AMD and NVDA.3/ NVDA has taken the lion's share of this market so far.This was because of two reas
Here is my AMD Investment Thesis!

UNH: High Potential to Buy!

1.Here is how I see the market right now:- The overall market is expensive.- Inflation may tick up soon due to tariffs, etc.- Commercial credit is weaker than consumer credit.This is a time to think more defensively than offensively.Healthcare is there for defensive positioning, trading at just 17× forward earnings versus 23× for the S&P.The largest healthcare providers are still down about 40% from their highs, and they are guiding for growth next year.Hedge funds are buying, members of Congress are buying, and even Buffett is buying.I think the sector deserves some attention now.Especially $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ .Line chart titled S and P 500 versus Health Care Forward P E dated October 10 2024, showing red line for S and P 500 forward P E and b
UNH: High Potential to Buy!

AMD: Sales will Skyrocket, the Stock will Follow

1. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ is selling off because data center sales went down two quarters in a row..It’s not a demand problem.AMD is behind $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ in time to market. When AMD catches up, NVDA launches the next-gen design.This is changing with MI400 series.When NVDA launches Rubin, MI400 will follow shortly after to compete effectively.It’s when we’ll see AMD meaningfully gain market share instead of feeding on breadcrumbs.Sales will skyrocket, the stock will follow.Image2. $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ is so obvious at this point that it’s going vertical despite the earnings miss.It’s simple: Revenue grows 30% annually in the next 2 years and it achiev
AMD: Sales will Skyrocket, the Stock will Follow

Here is Why NVO is an Asymmetric Opportunity?

1/ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ was once a market darling, now everybody hates it.It dominates the global insulin and weight-loss drugs markets. Even if it delivers a high single-digit annualized growth in the next 5 years, the stock will double.Here is why NVO is an asymmetric opportunity: 🧵2/ NVO was nearly trading at 3x of today's valuation in January.What changed?Nothing more than the sentiment.Let me explain:Image3/ NVO still dominates the global diabetes market.It currently controls over 34% of the global diabetes treatment market, up from 30% in 2021.Even if the growth in the weight-loss segment stops, this segment is large enough to support high-single-digit long-term growth.Image4/ What about the competition from
Here is Why NVO is an Asymmetric Opportunity?

OSCR is Going at the Right Direction!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading skills with you! $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ earnings dropped, nothing unexpected.Revenue of $2.86B vs $2.92 Est. ❌EPS of -$0.89 vs -$0.88 Est. ❌Healthcare is going through a great reset.OSCR is going at the right direction.Revenue doubled YoY and it added 500,000 members.They mispredicted the activity rates and medical costs, so the loss ratio is off the roof, just like the whole healthcare sector.It won’t remain this way.The sector accurately predicted medical costs and activity rates before 2023, they’ll return to that for sure.If you can deploy capital with an illiquid mindset, healthcare now offers a great opportunity.OSCR, in particular, will surely be an at least 3-4x stock in the next coupl
OSCR is Going at the Right Direction!

Here are 10 Stocks that'll Benefit from Lower Rates

The Fed has just cut interest rates again and signaled another rate cut next year.Here are 10 stocks that'll benefit from lower rates: 🧵1. $Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ - Leading second-look lending network.- Expanding into auto loans and BNPL.- Markdowns are normalizing.Analysts expect 17% growth next year, but it's too low in my opinion. It can do way better in a lower-rate environment.It's an asymmetric opportunity at 15x earnings, given that estimates are likely too low.Image2. $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ - Leading AI-powered lending marketplace.- Originations grew 80% YoY, reaching $2.9 billion.- It's trading at 15x 2027 earnings despite strong growth.It got sold off after Q3 results because inve
Here are 10 Stocks that'll Benefit from Lower Rates

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