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2021-05-06
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Night reading | How to grasp major opportunities in investment?
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2023-04-17
$第一共和银行(FRC)$
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2023-04-10
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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$第一共和银行(FRC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/659980653","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624273147,"gmtCreate":1677544897391,"gmtModify":1677544897391,"author":{"id":"180489801557520","authorId":"180489801557520","name":"WstreetBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ffcee2a6d73f35b1d68c916a7e6856","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"180489801557520","authorIdStr":"180489801557520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624273147","repostId":"1116320153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116320153","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677511410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116320153?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-27 23:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night reading | How to grasp major opportunities in investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116320153","media":"思想钢印","summary":"赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Odds, Win Rates and Reasonable Positions<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ef80cc1d747969b23f9fd049884f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1</b><b>/7</b></p><p><b>\"100-20\" rule</b></p><p>Investors who often review their trading records in the past period must have an experience,<b>Account profits and losses are made up of one or more of the most earned or lost</b>The specific ones are related to the degree of position dispersion and the holding cycle.</p><p>This is more cruel than the 28-8 principle<b>“100-20”</b>Rules:</p><p><b>100% of the excess gains (losses) come from 20% of the trading volume, and most of the rest are profit-loss and index-like</b>Unless it is ultra-short-term trading or quantitative funds, basically everyone does.</p><p>The one or two transactions that allow you to reach your annual earnings goal are those that keep you from achieving your goal, also because of the one or two that lose money. These two investments are what we usually say<b>\"Winner and Loser\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736b32f451aae9adcd9eacbd096ed7b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although most investments come to a certain point, you realize that it is not a \"winner\", but you don't know it beforehand,<b>So most of your investment decisions should be made carefully with a \"winner or loser\" mentality</b>。</p><p>Understanding the relationship between the winner and the final income can allow you to establish the most basic stock selection criteria:</p><p><b>Assuming that your one-year income target is 15%, assuming that the market rises 5% this year, then the winner and loser will bear 10% of the income of the whole account.</b></p><p>Assume that your maximum position of a single stock is an average of 40% per year. Assuming that each position is held for one year, then the stock selection that meets the income target has the following criteria:</p><p><b>1. Let you only dare to have stocks with an average position of 20% last year, but the expected rate of return in one year is 50%;</b></p><p><b>2. Let you dare to stock with an average position of 30% last year, and the expected rate of return in one year is 33%;</b></p><p><b>3. Let you dare the stock with an average position of 40% last year, and the expected rate of return for one year is 25%</b></p><p>If the account excess return is determined by the two highest profitable stocks, the expected return requirement is halved, and so on.</p><p>This basic stock selection criterion includes two of the simplest constraints:<b>Good investments can either make you dare to take positions (Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>), or the expected yield is high (Bo dilemma reversal)</b>。</p><p>First of all, we have to solve a problem, what is \"expected rate of return\"?</p><p><b>2/7</b></p><p><b>How to Calculate Expected Yield</b></p><p>Many people have studied the company, calculated the performance growth rate and the rationality of valuation, and felt that the company had double the space from the target price, so they thought it was a stock that could \"rise by 100% a year\".</p><p>This statement is wrong. Just now, we only calculated that the upward space of this stock is 100% in the most ideal case, but we haven't considered the downward space, that is:</p><p>If the positive logic envisioned at the time of buying doesn't materialize, where will the stock price fall?</p><p>In addition, it is necessary to consider the up and down probabilities to calculate<b>Expected yield</b>：</p><p><b>(Upspace * Profit probability-Downspace * Loss probability) /Principal investment</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73beb93ab2af8747252a5509e5ad82f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming that the stock price is 10 yuan, the limit profit and the limit loss are 10 yuan and-4 yuan, and the probability is 50% each, then the expected rate of return of this investment is:</p><p>（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%</p><p>Of course, this is just a simplified formula. In actual investment, within the limit value, the investment result has various possibilities, corresponding to different probabilities. However, as the standard for individual investors to select stocks, it is enough to only calculate the upward and downward space of the limit, and think that the winning rate is 50%.</p><p>Look When Calculating Expected Yield<b>Up space and down space, actually judging the odds</b>。</p><p><b>3/7</b></p><p><b>Odds are a limit</b></p><p>The concept of odds comes from betting, and the odds of betting can be calculated because:</p><p>1. There are only a few results;</p><p>2. Every result is a clear probability.</p><p>But that's not the case with stocks- -</p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are not explicit outcomes, but the limits of outcomes, considering small probability events, i.e.,<b>In the best of cases, how much can it go up; At worst, how much can it fall?</b></p><p>Extreme upward space, that is, under optimistic conditions,<b>All the benefits are realized in performance, the target price corresponding to the highest optimistic valuation range that the market may give</b>Many brokerage research reports will give it. Many people think that the target price is too high, but this is only an optimistic upper limit of space.</p><p>In the extreme downward space, we need to judge if the favorable logic you think has not been fulfilled, the expenses have been spent, and the current products have problems again. In this case, what level of performance is probably? In the past three years of history, what kind of valuation level is the worst for the market in this case.</p><p>It can be seen from this point,<b>Odds are limiting concepts, a relatively certain calculable value</b>In contrast, the winning rate is a probability, which is vague, so calculating the odds is the most critical part of the overall investment process, and you need to know the following points about the investment object:</p><p><b>Core growth logic and major risk points</b></p><p><b>2. Understand the overall history and trends of the industry and the company's operation in the past few years</b></p><p><b>3. The best and worst periods in the past, specific data of operations</b></p><p><b>4. The view of the market at different stages and the limit valuation given</b></p><p>The more important role of calculating odds is to judge the buying cost. If the odds of the target you are optimistic about are not enough-which is a very likely situation for good companies, then you can calculate what price you want to fall to, and the odds are suitable.</p><p>So, how is the winning rate of stock investment determined?</p><p><b>4/7</b></p><p><b>Winning rate is a criterion</b></p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are the limit of the outcome and therefore can be calculated, but the winning percentage of stock investing is too subjective.</p><p>The current price of a stock is 10 yuan, and there are too many possibilities for the stock price after one year.<b>The winning rate is to describe the probability of the stock price appearing at every price point, which is obviously impossible to calculate.</b></p><p>What's more, investors can terminate at any time. Even if it loses money after a year, it doesn't exclude you from selling when you make a profit midway, that is to say,<b>You can use strategy to lock in winning percentage</b>。</p><p>So the winning rate here is an approximate probability, that is, after one year, the probability of making a profit or exceeding the increase of the broader market.</p><p>How can this be judged?</p><p>The winning rate of a certain stock after one year's investment is a conditional probability, and its<b>Standard expression</b>Yes:</p><p><b>If I've bought countless of these stocks, what percentage of them have risen a year later?</b></p><p>So strictly speaking, there is no way to calculate the probability of that stock, because each stock is unique.</p><p>But you can change your mind,<b>Stocks are different, but the criteria for stock selection can be the same</b>。</p><p>So the actual win rate is judged like this:</p><p><b>1. From the transaction records of making money in the past, summarize a stock selection standard with high winning rate and the standard of buying time. The more specific the requirements, the better;</b></p><p><b>2. The more the company meets this standard, the higher the winning rate. Considering the judgment error and deviation, the winning rate can be considered to be 50%.</b></p><p>Stock selection criteria include:</p><p>1. Fixed industry characteristics, such as high prosperity industries, consumption industries, cyclical industries, etc.</p><p>Development stage or market value characteristics of the company</p><p>3. Other constraints such as competitive landscape and industry space may not be used, but usually the more specific the better</p><p>4. Growth logic, such as capacity investment, category expansion, price increase, etc.</p><p>5. Growth rate requirements</p><p>6. Requirements for other personal preferences</p><p>The timing criteria for selection include:</p><p>1. The position of the inflection point of business, left or right</p><p>2. Historical valuation position requirements</p><p>3. Catalysts such as financial reports and negative market events</p><p>4. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>Anyway,<b>If the specific winning rate data is changed into \"meeting a certain winning rate standard\", it can be considered as 50% winning rate if it meets a certain set standard.</b></p><p>With the win rate (which is actually the timing criterion for stock picking) and the odds, calculate the method at the beginning and determine the lowest position that meets the expected yield criterion.</p><p>So, is there a maximum position requirement?</p><p>Yes, that's Kelly's formula.</p><p><b>5/7</b></p><p><b>The requirements of Kelly's formula for positions</b></p><p>Many retail investors have the following two bad habits in position control:</p><p>Habit 1. Hold more than 50% positions in investments with higher winning percentage or higher odds</p><p>Habit 2. Spread positions, and every position is very average</p><p>The problem of habit 2 is obvious. Through the relationship between \"yield, expectation and position\" analyzed earlier, it can be seen that different opportunities should be given to different positions. If you see it correctly, you should increase your positions. If you don't see it correctly, but if you have imagination, you are suitable for small positions.</p><p><b>\"Good company, good price\" should be followed by a \"good position\"</b>Otherwise, your earnings will still be mediocre.</p><p>But Habit 1 also conforms to the previous formula. In theory, as long as 15% of the expected value, you can fully position a stock.</p><p>But,<b>Kelly's formula tells you that under no circumstances can you take a full position in a stock</b>。</p><p>If a company on the verge of delisting wants to reorganize, if it succeeds, its stock price can be fivefolded, and if it fails, it is worthless to delist. If you get insider information, there is a 99% probability of success. How much principal should you bet?</p><p>Obviously, under such superior conditions, you should not bet the whole principal. Once you step on the 1% thunder, it will be doomed.</p><p>There is an optimal ratio between position and odds, which is the following Kelly formula (a simplified version for stocks):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/934fbfcafdecb9475e1087c26d43ad67\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>I won't introduce the specific principle. Many articles have introduced it, only its conclusion:</p><p><b>If a stock has a 2:1 odds and a 50% win rate over the next year, the best ratio of your average position ceiling is 25%</b>— — The reason for the upper limit is that most people are too optimistic about odds and winning rates.</p><p>If the lower limit of the reasonable position calculated earlier is 33%, this investment opportunity should be temporarily abandoned, or positions should be opened in batches, and then positions should be added when the price falls to a reasonable price, so that the average buying cost meets the odds and yield requirements.</p><p>So<b>Investment opportunities below 2:1 odds, where it is difficult to meet both the expected yield and Kelly's formula requirements, should be abandoned.</b></p><p>Continue to look at the results of Kelly's formula:<b>If it's 3:1 odds, that's 33% of the position, and if it's 4:1 odds, that's 37.5%.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, with odds exceeding 4:1, usually betting restructuring, major innovation, cycle reversal or dilemma reversal, it is difficult to guarantee a win rate of more than 50% (unless there is inside information), and the position can't be raised.<b>Therefore, it is not appropriate to use more than 40% positions in most opportunities.</b></p><p>According to Kelly's formula,<b>With a 50% chance of winning, no matter how big the odds, the position cannot exceed 50%.</b></p><p>So what if you think the win rate is over 50%? As the rise and fall of individual stocks largely depends on the index, and the index is an unexpected factor, no matter how good a company is, it can be regarded as a 50% winning rate within the year.</p><p>The conclusion is that the largest position is 20% to 40% position, and the upward space is required to be more than twice the downward space.</p><p>Obviously, most investments, we all realize at one point that it's not a \"winner\", so how do we deal with it?</p><p><b>6/7</b></p><p><b>What if it's not the winner or loser?</b></p><p>Of course, most investments will not end up being \"winners\", usually for the following reasons:</p><p><b>Reason 1. The investment logic is not realized as you expected</b></p><p><b>Reason 2: Your buying cost is too high</b></p><p><b>Reason 3. Sell prematurely during the rise, or fail to seize the opportunity of adding positions at a low price</b></p><p><b>Reason 4. Problems with fund allocation and insufficient positions</b></p><p><b>Reason 5. Market style deviates in a direction that is unfavorable to you</b></p><p>The first two reasons are your misjudgment,<b>The first reason is the error of buying logic and upward space judgment, and the second reason is the error of odds judgment.</b></p><p><b>The third reason is the operation factor, \"winning or losing hand\" is vigorous to make a miracle</b>, there are some companies that you have a lot of faith in, and when they fall to incredible prices at special times, dare to add them to the largest position; In the process of heavy positions rising, we should also hold it.</p><p><b>The fourth reason is the problem of fund allocation</b>, when opportunities arise, funds are wasted on \"non-winner\" opportunities.</p><p>The chances of winning and losing are unevenly distributed, and you need to be patient and dare to make decisions. The typical chances of winning and losing in 2022 are concentrated in two stages:</p><p><b>1. The opportunity to fall out</b>: Most growth stocks in late April, liquor and Hong Kong stocks in late October</p><p><b>2. The opportunity to rise out</b>: Coal stocks from January to April, new energy sector from May to August</p><p>As long as there is a certain position to seize any of these opportunities, and there is no major mistake of high takeover, it can obviously outperform the broader market last year.</p><p>On the contrary, if you judge that the investment has been determined to fail to be a \"key transaction,\" the signs are:</p><p><b>1. Logic has changed</b></p><p><b>2. The stock price has risen greatly, missing the opportunity to take a position</b></p><p>If these two signs appear, it is \"non-winner trade\", and the investment goal will also change.<b>The most important thing is to prevent it from turning back into a \"decisive loss\" in a \"winning hand\".</b></p><p>Then the operating idea is obvious,<b>Profits should be realized in time, and losses should be stopped in time.</b></p><p>The only exception is that the expected returns caused by market style have not been realized, while the fundamental logic of enterprises remains unchanged.<b>It both means that the odds are higher, and it also means that it will take you longer to realize this gain, which is equivalent to moving the chances of \"winning or losing hand\" to the next stage, which is to hold the shares unchanged.</b></p><p>If the income of \"winning and losing hand\" has been realized, especially in the short term, usually the stock price increase is already on the high side, it is necessary to regard it as a new investment, re-evaluate the expected income, odds and winning rate, and reallocate positions.</p><p><b>7/7</b></p><p><b>Every investment should meet the criteria of \"winning and losing hand\"</b></p><p><b>Most people's preference risk is habitually maintained at a fixed level, so they can't dare to increase their positions to greatly exceed the normal level when the decisive opportunity comes;</b></p><p>The remaining small number of people with higher risk appetite often expose high position risk to non-winner opportunities.</p><p><b>Most investments are likely to be \"winners and losers\"-either the biggest profit or the fatal loss, so any investment needs to be fully planned from the start</b>I would rather miss it, not make a mistake, and not trade at will. Before buying, ask yourself a few questions:</p><p>1. Does it conform to your past high-winning company model? What is its maximum upside and downside over the period of your holdings?</p><p>2. What kind of position does your calculated expected rate of return match to meet the income requirements of the winner?</p><p>3. What is the maximum position calculated by Kelly's formula for the above odds and winning rate?</p><p>4. To reach the maximum position, you will buy in several tranches. How to meet the lower buying cost and the appropriate position at the same time?</p><p>5. Under what circumstances do you judge that it is not a \"winning hand\" and converts it into a general investment?</p><p>6. If it falls sharply in the middle, what channels do you have to verify your judgment on fundamentals? What do you do if it falls below the maximum downside you envisioned?</p><p>Without Apple, Buffett's investment in his later years would have become very mediocre. You can think of it as good luck, but it can also be considered as the inevitability of the investment system. Without Apple, there would be bananas.</p><p>If the big opportunity is a big fish, the investment system is a net,<b>The decisive opportunity may seem sudden, but it is actually because you choose every investment carefully using the criteria of \"winner or loser\".</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night reading | How to grasp major opportunities in investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight reading | How to grasp major opportunities in investment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">思想钢印</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-27 23:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Odds, Win Rates and Reasonable Positions<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ef80cc1d747969b23f9fd049884f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1</b><b>/7</b></p><p><b>\"100-20\" rule</b></p><p>Investors who often review their trading records in the past period must have an experience,<b>Account profits and losses are made up of one or more of the most earned or lost</b>The specific ones are related to the degree of position dispersion and the holding cycle.</p><p>This is more cruel than the 28-8 principle<b>“100-20”</b>Rules:</p><p><b>100% of the excess gains (losses) come from 20% of the trading volume, and most of the rest are profit-loss and index-like</b>Unless it is ultra-short-term trading or quantitative funds, basically everyone does.</p><p>The one or two transactions that allow you to reach your annual earnings goal are those that keep you from achieving your goal, also because of the one or two that lose money. These two investments are what we usually say<b>\"Winner and Loser\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736b32f451aae9adcd9eacbd096ed7b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although most investments come to a certain point, you realize that it is not a \"winner\", but you don't know it beforehand,<b>So most of your investment decisions should be made carefully with a \"winner or loser\" mentality</b>。</p><p>Understanding the relationship between the winner and the final income can allow you to establish the most basic stock selection criteria:</p><p><b>Assuming that your one-year income target is 15%, assuming that the market rises 5% this year, then the winner and loser will bear 10% of the income of the whole account.</b></p><p>Assume that your maximum position of a single stock is an average of 40% per year. Assuming that each position is held for one year, then the stock selection that meets the income target has the following criteria:</p><p><b>1. Let you only dare to have stocks with an average position of 20% last year, but the expected rate of return in one year is 50%;</b></p><p><b>2. Let you dare to stock with an average position of 30% last year, and the expected rate of return in one year is 33%;</b></p><p><b>3. Let you dare the stock with an average position of 40% last year, and the expected rate of return for one year is 25%</b></p><p>If the account excess return is determined by the two highest profitable stocks, the expected return requirement is halved, and so on.</p><p>This basic stock selection criterion includes two of the simplest constraints:<b>Good investments can either make you dare to take positions (Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>), or the expected yield is high (Bo dilemma reversal)</b>。</p><p>First of all, we have to solve a problem, what is \"expected rate of return\"?</p><p><b>2/7</b></p><p><b>How to Calculate Expected Yield</b></p><p>Many people have studied the company, calculated the performance growth rate and the rationality of valuation, and felt that the company had double the space from the target price, so they thought it was a stock that could \"rise by 100% a year\".</p><p>This statement is wrong. Just now, we only calculated that the upward space of this stock is 100% in the most ideal case, but we haven't considered the downward space, that is:</p><p>If the positive logic envisioned at the time of buying doesn't materialize, where will the stock price fall?</p><p>In addition, it is necessary to consider the up and down probabilities to calculate<b>Expected yield</b>：</p><p><b>(Upspace * Profit probability-Downspace * Loss probability) /Principal investment</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73beb93ab2af8747252a5509e5ad82f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming that the stock price is 10 yuan, the limit profit and the limit loss are 10 yuan and-4 yuan, and the probability is 50% each, then the expected rate of return of this investment is:</p><p>（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%</p><p>Of course, this is just a simplified formula. In actual investment, within the limit value, the investment result has various possibilities, corresponding to different probabilities. However, as the standard for individual investors to select stocks, it is enough to only calculate the upward and downward space of the limit, and think that the winning rate is 50%.</p><p>Look When Calculating Expected Yield<b>Up space and down space, actually judging the odds</b>。</p><p><b>3/7</b></p><p><b>Odds are a limit</b></p><p>The concept of odds comes from betting, and the odds of betting can be calculated because:</p><p>1. There are only a few results;</p><p>2. Every result is a clear probability.</p><p>But that's not the case with stocks- -</p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are not explicit outcomes, but the limits of outcomes, considering small probability events, i.e.,<b>In the best of cases, how much can it go up; At worst, how much can it fall?</b></p><p>Extreme upward space, that is, under optimistic conditions,<b>All the benefits are realized in performance, the target price corresponding to the highest optimistic valuation range that the market may give</b>Many brokerage research reports will give it. Many people think that the target price is too high, but this is only an optimistic upper limit of space.</p><p>In the extreme downward space, we need to judge if the favorable logic you think has not been fulfilled, the expenses have been spent, and the current products have problems again. In this case, what level of performance is probably? In the past three years of history, what kind of valuation level is the worst for the market in this case.</p><p>It can be seen from this point,<b>Odds are limiting concepts, a relatively certain calculable value</b>In contrast, the winning rate is a probability, which is vague, so calculating the odds is the most critical part of the overall investment process, and you need to know the following points about the investment object:</p><p><b>Core growth logic and major risk points</b></p><p><b>2. Understand the overall history and trends of the industry and the company's operation in the past few years</b></p><p><b>3. The best and worst periods in the past, specific data of operations</b></p><p><b>4. The view of the market at different stages and the limit valuation given</b></p><p>The more important role of calculating odds is to judge the buying cost. If the odds of the target you are optimistic about are not enough-which is a very likely situation for good companies, then you can calculate what price you want to fall to, and the odds are suitable.</p><p>So, how is the winning rate of stock investment determined?</p><p><b>4/7</b></p><p><b>Winning rate is a criterion</b></p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are the limit of the outcome and therefore can be calculated, but the winning percentage of stock investing is too subjective.</p><p>The current price of a stock is 10 yuan, and there are too many possibilities for the stock price after one year.<b>The winning rate is to describe the probability of the stock price appearing at every price point, which is obviously impossible to calculate.</b></p><p>What's more, investors can terminate at any time. Even if it loses money after a year, it doesn't exclude you from selling when you make a profit midway, that is to say,<b>You can use strategy to lock in winning percentage</b>。</p><p>So the winning rate here is an approximate probability, that is, after one year, the probability of making a profit or exceeding the increase of the broader market.</p><p>How can this be judged?</p><p>The winning rate of a certain stock after one year's investment is a conditional probability, and its<b>Standard expression</b>Yes:</p><p><b>If I've bought countless of these stocks, what percentage of them have risen a year later?</b></p><p>So strictly speaking, there is no way to calculate the probability of that stock, because each stock is unique.</p><p>But you can change your mind,<b>Stocks are different, but the criteria for stock selection can be the same</b>。</p><p>So the actual win rate is judged like this:</p><p><b>1. From the transaction records of making money in the past, summarize a stock selection standard with high winning rate and the standard of buying time. The more specific the requirements, the better;</b></p><p><b>2. The more the company meets this standard, the higher the winning rate. Considering the judgment error and deviation, the winning rate can be considered to be 50%.</b></p><p>Stock selection criteria include:</p><p>1. Fixed industry characteristics, such as high prosperity industries, consumption industries, cyclical industries, etc.</p><p>Development stage or market value characteristics of the company</p><p>3. Other constraints such as competitive landscape and industry space may not be used, but usually the more specific the better</p><p>4. Growth logic, such as capacity investment, category expansion, price increase, etc.</p><p>5. Growth rate requirements</p><p>6. Requirements for other personal preferences</p><p>The timing criteria for selection include:</p><p>1. The position of the inflection point of business, left or right</p><p>2. Historical valuation position requirements</p><p>3. Catalysts such as financial reports and negative market events</p><p>4. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>Anyway,<b>If the specific winning rate data is changed into \"meeting a certain winning rate standard\", it can be considered as 50% winning rate if it meets a certain set standard.</b></p><p>With the win rate (which is actually the timing criterion for stock picking) and the odds, calculate the method at the beginning and determine the lowest position that meets the expected yield criterion.</p><p>So, is there a maximum position requirement?</p><p>Yes, that's Kelly's formula.</p><p><b>5/7</b></p><p><b>The requirements of Kelly's formula for positions</b></p><p>Many retail investors have the following two bad habits in position control:</p><p>Habit 1. Hold more than 50% positions in investments with higher winning percentage or higher odds</p><p>Habit 2. Spread positions, and every position is very average</p><p>The problem of habit 2 is obvious. Through the relationship between \"yield, expectation and position\" analyzed earlier, it can be seen that different opportunities should be given to different positions. If you see it correctly, you should increase your positions. If you don't see it correctly, but if you have imagination, you are suitable for small positions.</p><p><b>\"Good company, good price\" should be followed by a \"good position\"</b>Otherwise, your earnings will still be mediocre.</p><p>But Habit 1 also conforms to the previous formula. In theory, as long as 15% of the expected value, you can fully position a stock.</p><p>But,<b>Kelly's formula tells you that under no circumstances can you take a full position in a stock</b>。</p><p>If a company on the verge of delisting wants to reorganize, if it succeeds, its stock price can be fivefolded, and if it fails, it is worthless to delist. If you get insider information, there is a 99% probability of success. How much principal should you bet?</p><p>Obviously, under such superior conditions, you should not bet the whole principal. Once you step on the 1% thunder, it will be doomed.</p><p>There is an optimal ratio between position and odds, which is the following Kelly formula (a simplified version for stocks):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/934fbfcafdecb9475e1087c26d43ad67\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>I won't introduce the specific principle. Many articles have introduced it, only its conclusion:</p><p><b>If a stock has a 2:1 odds and a 50% win rate over the next year, the best ratio of your average position ceiling is 25%</b>— — The reason for the upper limit is that most people are too optimistic about odds and winning rates.</p><p>If the lower limit of the reasonable position calculated earlier is 33%, this investment opportunity should be temporarily abandoned, or positions should be opened in batches, and then positions should be added when the price falls to a reasonable price, so that the average buying cost meets the odds and yield requirements.</p><p>So<b>Investment opportunities below 2:1 odds, where it is difficult to meet both the expected yield and Kelly's formula requirements, should be abandoned.</b></p><p>Continue to look at the results of Kelly's formula:<b>If it's 3:1 odds, that's 33% of the position, and if it's 4:1 odds, that's 37.5%.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, with odds exceeding 4:1, usually betting restructuring, major innovation, cycle reversal or dilemma reversal, it is difficult to guarantee a win rate of more than 50% (unless there is inside information), and the position can't be raised.<b>Therefore, it is not appropriate to use more than 40% positions in most opportunities.</b></p><p>According to Kelly's formula,<b>With a 50% chance of winning, no matter how big the odds, the position cannot exceed 50%.</b></p><p>So what if you think the win rate is over 50%? As the rise and fall of individual stocks largely depends on the index, and the index is an unexpected factor, no matter how good a company is, it can be regarded as a 50% winning rate within the year.</p><p>The conclusion is that the largest position is 20% to 40% position, and the upward space is required to be more than twice the downward space.</p><p>Obviously, most investments, we all realize at one point that it's not a \"winner\", so how do we deal with it?</p><p><b>6/7</b></p><p><b>What if it's not the winner or loser?</b></p><p>Of course, most investments will not end up being \"winners\", usually for the following reasons:</p><p><b>Reason 1. The investment logic is not realized as you expected</b></p><p><b>Reason 2: Your buying cost is too high</b></p><p><b>Reason 3. Sell prematurely during the rise, or fail to seize the opportunity of adding positions at a low price</b></p><p><b>Reason 4. Problems with fund allocation and insufficient positions</b></p><p><b>Reason 5. Market style deviates in a direction that is unfavorable to you</b></p><p>The first two reasons are your misjudgment,<b>The first reason is the error of buying logic and upward space judgment, and the second reason is the error of odds judgment.</b></p><p><b>The third reason is the operation factor, \"winning or losing hand\" is vigorous to make a miracle</b>, there are some companies that you have a lot of faith in, and when they fall to incredible prices at special times, dare to add them to the largest position; In the process of heavy positions rising, we should also hold it.</p><p><b>The fourth reason is the problem of fund allocation</b>, when opportunities arise, funds are wasted on \"non-winner\" opportunities.</p><p>The chances of winning and losing are unevenly distributed, and you need to be patient and dare to make decisions. The typical chances of winning and losing in 2022 are concentrated in two stages:</p><p><b>1. The opportunity to fall out</b>: Most growth stocks in late April, liquor and Hong Kong stocks in late October</p><p><b>2. The opportunity to rise out</b>: Coal stocks from January to April, new energy sector from May to August</p><p>As long as there is a certain position to seize any of these opportunities, and there is no major mistake of high takeover, it can obviously outperform the broader market last year.</p><p>On the contrary, if you judge that the investment has been determined to fail to be a \"key transaction,\" the signs are:</p><p><b>1. Logic has changed</b></p><p><b>2. The stock price has risen greatly, missing the opportunity to take a position</b></p><p>If these two signs appear, it is \"non-winner trade\", and the investment goal will also change.<b>The most important thing is to prevent it from turning back into a \"decisive loss\" in a \"winning hand\".</b></p><p>Then the operating idea is obvious,<b>Profits should be realized in time, and losses should be stopped in time.</b></p><p>The only exception is that the expected returns caused by market style have not been realized, while the fundamental logic of enterprises remains unchanged.<b>It both means that the odds are higher, and it also means that it will take you longer to realize this gain, which is equivalent to moving the chances of \"winning or losing hand\" to the next stage, which is to hold the shares unchanged.</b></p><p>If the income of \"winning and losing hand\" has been realized, especially in the short term, usually the stock price increase is already on the high side, it is necessary to regard it as a new investment, re-evaluate the expected income, odds and winning rate, and reallocate positions.</p><p><b>7/7</b></p><p><b>Every investment should meet the criteria of \"winning and losing hand\"</b></p><p><b>Most people's preference risk is habitually maintained at a fixed level, so they can't dare to increase their positions to greatly exceed the normal level when the decisive opportunity comes;</b></p><p>The remaining small number of people with higher risk appetite often expose high position risk to non-winner opportunities.</p><p><b>Most investments are likely to be \"winners and losers\"-either the biggest profit or the fatal loss, so any investment needs to be fully planned from the start</b>I would rather miss it, not make a mistake, and not trade at will. Before buying, ask yourself a few questions:</p><p>1. Does it conform to your past high-winning company model? What is its maximum upside and downside over the period of your holdings?</p><p>2. What kind of position does your calculated expected rate of return match to meet the income requirements of the winner?</p><p>3. What is the maximum position calculated by Kelly's formula for the above odds and winning rate?</p><p>4. To reach the maximum position, you will buy in several tranches. How to meet the lower buying cost and the appropriate position at the same time?</p><p>5. Under what circumstances do you judge that it is not a \"winning hand\" and converts it into a general investment?</p><p>6. If it falls sharply in the middle, what channels do you have to verify your judgment on fundamentals? What do you do if it falls below the maximum downside you envisioned?</p><p>Without Apple, Buffett's investment in his later years would have become very mediocre. You can think of it as good luck, but it can also be considered as the inevitability of the investment system. Without Apple, there would be bananas.</p><p>If the big opportunity is a big fish, the investment system is a net,<b>The decisive opportunity may seem sudden, but it is actually because you choose every investment carefully using the criteria of \"winner or loser\".</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rHZkSN7qNdePt6GnlT85zw\">思想钢印</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rHZkSN7qNdePt6GnlT85zw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116320153","content_text":"赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比二八原则更残酷的“100-20”规律：100%的超额收益（亏损）来源于20%的交易额，其余大部分交易都是盈亏相抵和指数差不多，除非是超短线交易或者是量化基金，基本上每个人都是如此。让你达成年度收益目标的交易，就是那么一两笔，让你无法实现目标，也是因为那亏损的一两笔。这一两笔投资，就是平时说的“胜负手”。虽然大部分投资到一定时候，你就意识到它不是“胜负手”，但事先你并不知道，所以你的大部分投资决策都要以“胜负手”的心态谨慎做出。理解了胜负手与最终收益的关系，就可以让你建立一个最基础的选股标准：假设你一年的收益目标是15%，假设大盘今年上涨5%，那么，胜负手就要承担整个账户10%的收益。假设你平时单支股票最大持仓为年平均四成仓，假设每笔持仓一年，那么符合收益目标的选股，有以下的标准：1、让你只敢上年平均20%仓位的股票，但一年预期收益率为50%；2、让你敢上年平均三成仓位的股票，一年预期收益率为33%；3、让你敢上年平均四成仓位的股票，一年预期收益率为25%如果账户超额收益由盈利最高的两支股票决定，那这个预期收益率的要求就减半，以此类推。这个基础选股标准包括两个最简单的约束条件：好的投资，要么让你敢上仓位（巴菲特的苹果），要么预期收益率高（博困境反转）。首先，我们要解决一个问题，什么叫“预期收益率”？2/7如何计算预期收益率很多人研究了公司，计算了业绩增速，估值合理性，觉得公司离目标价有一倍空间，就认为这是一个“一年能涨100%”的股票。这个说法是错的，刚才只计算了这个股票最理想的情况下，向上的空间是100%，还没有考虑向下的空间，即：如果买入时设想的那些利好逻辑没有兑现，那股价会跌到哪里？此外还要考虑向上和向下的概率，才能计算出预期收益率：（向上空间*盈利概率-向下空间*亏损概率）/投入本金假设股价10元，极限盈利和极限亏损为10元和 -4元，概率各为50%，那么这笔投资的预期收益率为：（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%当然，这只是一个简化公式，实际投资中，在极限值以内，投资结果有各种可能，对应不同的概率，但作为个人投资者选股的标准，只计算极限向上向下空间，并认为胜率为50%，也够了。计算预期收益率时要看向上空间和向下空间，实际上就是判断赔率。3/7赔率是一个极限赔率的概念源自博彩，博彩的赔率之所以能够计算出来，是因为：1、结果就几个；2、每一个结果都是明确的概率。但股票不是这样——正如上面分析的，股票投资的赔率不是明确的结果，而是结果的极限，考虑的是小概率事件，即，在最好的情况下，能涨多少；最差的情况下，能跌多少？极限向上空间，就是乐观情况下，所有的利好都兑现在业绩上，市场可能给予的最高乐观估值区间对应的目标价，很多券商研报都会给出，很多人觉得目标价太高，但这只是一个乐观的空间上限而已。极限向下空间，需要判断如果你认为的那些利好逻辑都没有兑现，费用又花出去了，现在的产品又出现了问题，这种情况下，业绩大概在什么水平，近三年的历史中，这种情况下市场最差给什么样的估值水平。从这一点可以看出，赔率是极限概念，是一个相对确定的可计算的值，相比之下，胜率是一个概率，是模糊的，所以计算赔率是整体投资过程中最关键的一环，需要你对投资对象了解以下几点：1、核心增长逻辑和主要风险点2、了解行业和公司过去几年经营的整体历程和趋势3、过去最好和最差的时期，经营的具体数据4、市场在不同阶段的看法，给出的极限估值计算赔率更重要的作用是判断买入成本，如果你看好的标的赔率不够——这是好公司非常可能出现的情况，那你就可以算一算，要跌到什么价格，赔率就合适了。那么，股票投资的胜率又是如何确定的呢？4/7胜率是一个标准正如上面分析的，股票投资的赔率是结果的极限，因此可以被计算，但股票投资的胜率就太主观了。某股票现价10元， 1年后的股价可能性实在是太多，胜率就是描述股价在每一个价位上出现的概率，这显然是无法计算的。更何况，投资者可以随时终止，就算一年后它是亏的，也不排除你中途在盈利的时候卖出，也就是说，你可以用策略去锁定胜率。所以这里的胜率是一个近似的概率，即一年后，盈利或超过大盘涨幅的概率。这怎么判断呢？某一个股票投资一年后的胜率，是一个条件概率，它的标准表达是：如果我买过无数支这样的股票，它们中一年后上涨的情况占比是多少？所以严格的说，没有办法计算该股票的概率，因为每一支股票都是独一无二的。但你可改变一下思路，股票是不一样的，但选股标准可以是一样的。所以实际胜率是这样判断的：1、从过去赚钱的交易记录中，总结出一个胜率较高的选股标准和买入时点的标准，要求越具体越好；2、越符合这个标准的公司，越拥有较高的胜率，考虑到判断误差和偏差，就可以认为胜率为50%。选股标准包括：1、固定的行业特征，比如高景气度行业，消费行业，周期行业等等2、公司发展阶段或市值特征3、竞争格局、行业空间等其他约束条件，可以不用，但通常越具体越好4、成长逻辑，比如产能投放，品类扩张，价格上涨，等等5、增速要求6、其他个人喜好的要求选择时机标准包括：1、经营拐点的位置，左侧或右侧2、历史估值位置要求3、财报、市场利空事件冲击等催化剂4、其他个人喜好的要求总之，把具体的胜率数据变成“符合某个胜率的标准”的是与否，符合某一个既定标准的，就可以认为是50%胜率。有了胜率（实际上是选股择时标准）和赔率，就按开头的方法计算，确定符合预期收益率标准的最低仓位了。那么，是不是还有最大仓位要求呢？有的，那就是凯利公式。5/7凯利公式对仓位的要求很多散户在仓位控制上有下面两个不太好的习惯：习惯1、在胜率较高或赔率较高的投资上，持有超过50%的仓位习惯2、分散持仓，每一笔持仓都很平均习惯2的问题很明显，通过前面分析的“收益率、期待值、仓位”三者的关系，可以看到，不同的机会应该给予不同的仓位，看准了，就要加大仓位干，看不准，但有想象力，才适合小仓位试。“好公司，好价格”后面还要再加一个“好仓位”，否则，你的收益仍然会很平庸。但习惯1也符合前面的公式，理论上说，只要15%的期待值，就可以全仓一个股票。但是，凯利公式告诉你，任何情况下，都不能全仓一个股票。假如一家濒临退市的公司要重组，如果成功股价可以翻五倍，如果失败就退市一文不值，你得到内线消息，99%的概率会成功，你应该押多少本金呢？显然在这样优越的条件下，你也不应该押上全部的本金，一旦你踩上1%的雷，就万劫不复了。仓位和赔率胜率本身是有最优比例的，就是下面的凯利公式（针对股票的简化版）：具体的原理我就不介绍了，很多文章都有介绍，只说它的结论：如果一支股票未来一年是2:1的赔率，50%的胜率，你的平均仓位上限最佳比例是25%——之所以是上限，需要考虑到大部分人对赔率和胜率判断过于乐观。如果前面计算出的合理仓位下限是33%，这笔投资机会就应该被暂时放弃，或者分批建仓，等跌到合理价格再加仓，让平均买入成本符合赔率和收益率要求。所以低于2:1赔率的投资机会，很难同时满足预期收益率和凯利公式的要求，都应该被放弃。继续看凯利公式的结果：如果是3:1的赔率，那就是33%的仓位，如果是4:1的赔率，那就是37.5%。一般而言，超过4:1的赔率，通常是博重组、重大创新、周期反转或困境反转，胜率就很难保证50%以上（除非有内幕消息），仓位也提不上去，所以绝大部分机会都不宜用4成以上的仓位。根据凯利公式，在50%的胜率机会下，无论多么大的赔率，仓位都不能超过50%。那么如果你认为胜率超过50%呢？由于个股的涨跌很大程度上取决于指数，而指数是预期之外的因素，所以再优秀的公司，年度以内都可以看成50%的胜率。结论就是，最大仓位就是两成到四成仓位，并要求向上空间是向下空间的2倍以上。很明显，大部分投资，我们都会在某一个时刻意识到它不是“胜负手”，那我们该怎么处理呢？6/7不是胜负手怎么办？当然，大部分投资最终都不会是“胜负手”，通常有以下原因：原因1、投资逻辑没有如你预期的实现原因2、你的买入成本过高原因3、上涨过程中过早卖出，或没有抓住低价加仓的机会原因4、资金分配出问题，仓位不够原因5、市场风格向对你不利的方向偏离前两个原因是你判断错误，原因一是买入逻辑和向上空间判断失误，原因二是赔率判断失误。原因三是操作的因素，“胜负手”是大力出奇迹，有一些你很有信仰的公司，在特殊时候跌到匪夷所思的价格，要敢于加到最大仓位；在重仓上涨的过程中，也要拿得住。原因四是资金分配的问题，在机会出现时，资金浪费在“非胜负手”的机会上。胜负手机会是分布不均的，需要有耐心，也要敢于决策，2022年典型的胜负手机会，集中出现在两个阶段：1、跌出来的机会：4月下旬的大部分成长股，10月下旬的白酒和港股2、涨出来的机会：1~4月的煤炭股，5~8月的新能源板块只要有一定仓位抓住其中的任何一个机会，并且没有高位接盘的重大错误，去年都可以明显跑赢大盘。相反，如果你判断该笔投资已确定无法成为“关键交易”，标志在于：1、逻辑变了2、股价涨幅已大，错过上仓位的时机如果出现了这两个标志，就是“非胜负手交易”，投资目标也要变，最重要的是防止它重新变成“胜负手”中的“决定性亏损”。那么操作思路就很明显了，盈利要及时兑现，亏损要及时止损。唯一例外的原因五，市场风格造成的预期收益没有实现，而企业基本面逻辑不变，它既代表赔率变高，也意味着你需要更长的时间去实现这个收益，相当于把“胜负手”的机会移到下一阶段，那就是持股不变。如果已经实现了“胜负手”的收益，特别是短期内实现，通常股价涨幅已经偏高，就需要当成一笔新的投资，重新评估预期收益、赔率和胜率，重新分配仓位。7/7每一笔投资都要符合“胜负手”的标准大部分人的偏好风险都习惯性地维持在一个固定的水平，因而无法在决定性的机会来临时，敢于把仓位加到大幅超过正常水平；剩下的小部分风险偏好较高的人，又常常会把高仓位风险暴露在非胜负手的机会上。大部分投资都可能成为“胜负手”——可能是最大盈利，也可能是致命亏损，所以任何投资从一开始就需要有完整计划，宁可错过，不可做错，不能随意交易，在买入之前，要问自己几个问题：1、它是否符合你过去的高胜率公司模型？它在你的持股期间的最大上升空间和下跌空间是多少？2、你算出来的预期收益率与什么样的仓位配合，才符合胜负手的收益要求？3、上述赔率和胜率根据凯利公式算出来的最大仓位是多少？4、达到最大仓位，你将分几笔买入，如何同时满足较低的买入成本和合适的仓位？5、什么情况下，你判断它不是“胜负手”，转换成一般的投资？6、如果中途大跌，你有什么渠道去验证你对基本面的判断？如果跌破你设想的最大下跌空间，你怎么办？如果没有苹果，巴菲特晚年的投资就变得非常平庸，你可以认为是好运气，但也可以认为是投资体系的必然，没有苹果也会有香蕉。如果说大机会是一条大鱼，投资体系就是一张网，决定性的机会看似突如其来，实际上是因为你每一笔投资都用“胜负手”的标准去谨慎选择。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105250285,"gmtCreate":1620308282447,"gmtModify":1704341700472,"author":{"id":"180489801557520","authorId":"180489801557520","name":"WstreetBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ffcee2a6d73f35b1d68c916a7e6856","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"180489801557520","authorIdStr":"180489801557520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$第一共和银行(FRC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/659980653","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624273147,"gmtCreate":1677544897391,"gmtModify":1677544897391,"author":{"id":"180489801557520","authorId":"180489801557520","name":"WstreetBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ffcee2a6d73f35b1d68c916a7e6856","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"180489801557520","idStr":"180489801557520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624273147","repostId":"1116320153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116320153","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677511410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116320153?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-27 23:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night reading | How to grasp major opportunities in investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116320153","media":"思想钢印","summary":"赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Odds, Win Rates and Reasonable Positions<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ef80cc1d747969b23f9fd049884f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1</b><b>/7</b></p><p><b>\"100-20\" rule</b></p><p>Investors who often review their trading records in the past period must have an experience,<b>Account profits and losses are made up of one or more of the most earned or lost</b>The specific ones are related to the degree of position dispersion and the holding cycle.</p><p>This is more cruel than the 28-8 principle<b>“100-20”</b>Rules:</p><p><b>100% of the excess gains (losses) come from 20% of the trading volume, and most of the rest are profit-loss and index-like</b>Unless it is ultra-short-term trading or quantitative funds, basically everyone does.</p><p>The one or two transactions that allow you to reach your annual earnings goal are those that keep you from achieving your goal, also because of the one or two that lose money. These two investments are what we usually say<b>\"Winner and Loser\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736b32f451aae9adcd9eacbd096ed7b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although most investments come to a certain point, you realize that it is not a \"winner\", but you don't know it beforehand,<b>So most of your investment decisions should be made carefully with a \"winner or loser\" mentality</b>。</p><p>Understanding the relationship between the winner and the final income can allow you to establish the most basic stock selection criteria:</p><p><b>Assuming that your one-year income target is 15%, assuming that the market rises 5% this year, then the winner and loser will bear 10% of the income of the whole account.</b></p><p>Assume that your maximum position of a single stock is an average of 40% per year. Assuming that each position is held for one year, then the stock selection that meets the income target has the following criteria:</p><p><b>1. Let you only dare to have stocks with an average position of 20% last year, but the expected rate of return in one year is 50%;</b></p><p><b>2. Let you dare to stock with an average position of 30% last year, and the expected rate of return in one year is 33%;</b></p><p><b>3. Let you dare the stock with an average position of 40% last year, and the expected rate of return for one year is 25%</b></p><p>If the account excess return is determined by the two highest profitable stocks, the expected return requirement is halved, and so on.</p><p>This basic stock selection criterion includes two of the simplest constraints:<b>Good investments can either make you dare to take positions (Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>), or the expected yield is high (Bo dilemma reversal)</b>。</p><p>First of all, we have to solve a problem, what is \"expected rate of return\"?</p><p><b>2/7</b></p><p><b>How to Calculate Expected Yield</b></p><p>Many people have studied the company, calculated the performance growth rate and the rationality of valuation, and felt that the company had double the space from the target price, so they thought it was a stock that could \"rise by 100% a year\".</p><p>This statement is wrong. Just now, we only calculated that the upward space of this stock is 100% in the most ideal case, but we haven't considered the downward space, that is:</p><p>If the positive logic envisioned at the time of buying doesn't materialize, where will the stock price fall?</p><p>In addition, it is necessary to consider the up and down probabilities to calculate<b>Expected yield</b>：</p><p><b>(Upspace * Profit probability-Downspace * Loss probability) /Principal investment</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73beb93ab2af8747252a5509e5ad82f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming that the stock price is 10 yuan, the limit profit and the limit loss are 10 yuan and-4 yuan, and the probability is 50% each, then the expected rate of return of this investment is:</p><p>（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%</p><p>Of course, this is just a simplified formula. In actual investment, within the limit value, the investment result has various possibilities, corresponding to different probabilities. However, as the standard for individual investors to select stocks, it is enough to only calculate the upward and downward space of the limit, and think that the winning rate is 50%.</p><p>Look When Calculating Expected Yield<b>Up space and down space, actually judging the odds</b>。</p><p><b>3/7</b></p><p><b>Odds are a limit</b></p><p>The concept of odds comes from betting, and the odds of betting can be calculated because:</p><p>1. There are only a few results;</p><p>2. Every result is a clear probability.</p><p>But that's not the case with stocks- -</p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are not explicit outcomes, but the limits of outcomes, considering small probability events, i.e.,<b>In the best of cases, how much can it go up; At worst, how much can it fall?</b></p><p>Extreme upward space, that is, under optimistic conditions,<b>All the benefits are realized in performance, the target price corresponding to the highest optimistic valuation range that the market may give</b>Many brokerage research reports will give it. Many people think that the target price is too high, but this is only an optimistic upper limit of space.</p><p>In the extreme downward space, we need to judge if the favorable logic you think has not been fulfilled, the expenses have been spent, and the current products have problems again. In this case, what level of performance is probably? In the past three years of history, what kind of valuation level is the worst for the market in this case.</p><p>It can be seen from this point,<b>Odds are limiting concepts, a relatively certain calculable value</b>In contrast, the winning rate is a probability, which is vague, so calculating the odds is the most critical part of the overall investment process, and you need to know the following points about the investment object:</p><p><b>Core growth logic and major risk points</b></p><p><b>2. Understand the overall history and trends of the industry and the company's operation in the past few years</b></p><p><b>3. The best and worst periods in the past, specific data of operations</b></p><p><b>4. The view of the market at different stages and the limit valuation given</b></p><p>The more important role of calculating odds is to judge the buying cost. If the odds of the target you are optimistic about are not enough-which is a very likely situation for good companies, then you can calculate what price you want to fall to, and the odds are suitable.</p><p>So, how is the winning rate of stock investment determined?</p><p><b>4/7</b></p><p><b>Winning rate is a criterion</b></p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are the limit of the outcome and therefore can be calculated, but the winning percentage of stock investing is too subjective.</p><p>The current price of a stock is 10 yuan, and there are too many possibilities for the stock price after one year.<b>The winning rate is to describe the probability of the stock price appearing at every price point, which is obviously impossible to calculate.</b></p><p>What's more, investors can terminate at any time. Even if it loses money after a year, it doesn't exclude you from selling when you make a profit midway, that is to say,<b>You can use strategy to lock in winning percentage</b>。</p><p>So the winning rate here is an approximate probability, that is, after one year, the probability of making a profit or exceeding the increase of the broader market.</p><p>How can this be judged?</p><p>The winning rate of a certain stock after one year's investment is a conditional probability, and its<b>Standard expression</b>Yes:</p><p><b>If I've bought countless of these stocks, what percentage of them have risen a year later?</b></p><p>So strictly speaking, there is no way to calculate the probability of that stock, because each stock is unique.</p><p>But you can change your mind,<b>Stocks are different, but the criteria for stock selection can be the same</b>。</p><p>So the actual win rate is judged like this:</p><p><b>1. From the transaction records of making money in the past, summarize a stock selection standard with high winning rate and the standard of buying time. The more specific the requirements, the better;</b></p><p><b>2. The more the company meets this standard, the higher the winning rate. Considering the judgment error and deviation, the winning rate can be considered to be 50%.</b></p><p>Stock selection criteria include:</p><p>1. Fixed industry characteristics, such as high prosperity industries, consumption industries, cyclical industries, etc.</p><p>Development stage or market value characteristics of the company</p><p>3. Other constraints such as competitive landscape and industry space may not be used, but usually the more specific the better</p><p>4. Growth logic, such as capacity investment, category expansion, price increase, etc.</p><p>5. Growth rate requirements</p><p>6. Requirements for other personal preferences</p><p>The timing criteria for selection include:</p><p>1. The position of the inflection point of business, left or right</p><p>2. Historical valuation position requirements</p><p>3. Catalysts such as financial reports and negative market events</p><p>4. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>Anyway,<b>If the specific winning rate data is changed into \"meeting a certain winning rate standard\", it can be considered as 50% winning rate if it meets a certain set standard.</b></p><p>With the win rate (which is actually the timing criterion for stock picking) and the odds, calculate the method at the beginning and determine the lowest position that meets the expected yield criterion.</p><p>So, is there a maximum position requirement?</p><p>Yes, that's Kelly's formula.</p><p><b>5/7</b></p><p><b>The requirements of Kelly's formula for positions</b></p><p>Many retail investors have the following two bad habits in position control:</p><p>Habit 1. Hold more than 50% positions in investments with higher winning percentage or higher odds</p><p>Habit 2. Spread positions, and every position is very average</p><p>The problem of habit 2 is obvious. Through the relationship between \"yield, expectation and position\" analyzed earlier, it can be seen that different opportunities should be given to different positions. If you see it correctly, you should increase your positions. If you don't see it correctly, but if you have imagination, you are suitable for small positions.</p><p><b>\"Good company, good price\" should be followed by a \"good position\"</b>Otherwise, your earnings will still be mediocre.</p><p>But Habit 1 also conforms to the previous formula. In theory, as long as 15% of the expected value, you can fully position a stock.</p><p>But,<b>Kelly's formula tells you that under no circumstances can you take a full position in a stock</b>。</p><p>If a company on the verge of delisting wants to reorganize, if it succeeds, its stock price can be fivefolded, and if it fails, it is worthless to delist. If you get insider information, there is a 99% probability of success. How much principal should you bet?</p><p>Obviously, under such superior conditions, you should not bet the whole principal. Once you step on the 1% thunder, it will be doomed.</p><p>There is an optimal ratio between position and odds, which is the following Kelly formula (a simplified version for stocks):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/934fbfcafdecb9475e1087c26d43ad67\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>I won't introduce the specific principle. Many articles have introduced it, only its conclusion:</p><p><b>If a stock has a 2:1 odds and a 50% win rate over the next year, the best ratio of your average position ceiling is 25%</b>— — The reason for the upper limit is that most people are too optimistic about odds and winning rates.</p><p>If the lower limit of the reasonable position calculated earlier is 33%, this investment opportunity should be temporarily abandoned, or positions should be opened in batches, and then positions should be added when the price falls to a reasonable price, so that the average buying cost meets the odds and yield requirements.</p><p>So<b>Investment opportunities below 2:1 odds, where it is difficult to meet both the expected yield and Kelly's formula requirements, should be abandoned.</b></p><p>Continue to look at the results of Kelly's formula:<b>If it's 3:1 odds, that's 33% of the position, and if it's 4:1 odds, that's 37.5%.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, with odds exceeding 4:1, usually betting restructuring, major innovation, cycle reversal or dilemma reversal, it is difficult to guarantee a win rate of more than 50% (unless there is inside information), and the position can't be raised.<b>Therefore, it is not appropriate to use more than 40% positions in most opportunities.</b></p><p>According to Kelly's formula,<b>With a 50% chance of winning, no matter how big the odds, the position cannot exceed 50%.</b></p><p>So what if you think the win rate is over 50%? As the rise and fall of individual stocks largely depends on the index, and the index is an unexpected factor, no matter how good a company is, it can be regarded as a 50% winning rate within the year.</p><p>The conclusion is that the largest position is 20% to 40% position, and the upward space is required to be more than twice the downward space.</p><p>Obviously, most investments, we all realize at one point that it's not a \"winner\", so how do we deal with it?</p><p><b>6/7</b></p><p><b>What if it's not the winner or loser?</b></p><p>Of course, most investments will not end up being \"winners\", usually for the following reasons:</p><p><b>Reason 1. The investment logic is not realized as you expected</b></p><p><b>Reason 2: Your buying cost is too high</b></p><p><b>Reason 3. Sell prematurely during the rise, or fail to seize the opportunity of adding positions at a low price</b></p><p><b>Reason 4. Problems with fund allocation and insufficient positions</b></p><p><b>Reason 5. Market style deviates in a direction that is unfavorable to you</b></p><p>The first two reasons are your misjudgment,<b>The first reason is the error of buying logic and upward space judgment, and the second reason is the error of odds judgment.</b></p><p><b>The third reason is the operation factor, \"winning or losing hand\" is vigorous to make a miracle</b>, there are some companies that you have a lot of faith in, and when they fall to incredible prices at special times, dare to add them to the largest position; In the process of heavy positions rising, we should also hold it.</p><p><b>The fourth reason is the problem of fund allocation</b>, when opportunities arise, funds are wasted on \"non-winner\" opportunities.</p><p>The chances of winning and losing are unevenly distributed, and you need to be patient and dare to make decisions. The typical chances of winning and losing in 2022 are concentrated in two stages:</p><p><b>1. The opportunity to fall out</b>: Most growth stocks in late April, liquor and Hong Kong stocks in late October</p><p><b>2. The opportunity to rise out</b>: Coal stocks from January to April, new energy sector from May to August</p><p>As long as there is a certain position to seize any of these opportunities, and there is no major mistake of high takeover, it can obviously outperform the broader market last year.</p><p>On the contrary, if you judge that the investment has been determined to fail to be a \"key transaction,\" the signs are:</p><p><b>1. Logic has changed</b></p><p><b>2. The stock price has risen greatly, missing the opportunity to take a position</b></p><p>If these two signs appear, it is \"non-winner trade\", and the investment goal will also change.<b>The most important thing is to prevent it from turning back into a \"decisive loss\" in a \"winning hand\".</b></p><p>Then the operating idea is obvious,<b>Profits should be realized in time, and losses should be stopped in time.</b></p><p>The only exception is that the expected returns caused by market style have not been realized, while the fundamental logic of enterprises remains unchanged.<b>It both means that the odds are higher, and it also means that it will take you longer to realize this gain, which is equivalent to moving the chances of \"winning or losing hand\" to the next stage, which is to hold the shares unchanged.</b></p><p>If the income of \"winning and losing hand\" has been realized, especially in the short term, usually the stock price increase is already on the high side, it is necessary to regard it as a new investment, re-evaluate the expected income, odds and winning rate, and reallocate positions.</p><p><b>7/7</b></p><p><b>Every investment should meet the criteria of \"winning and losing hand\"</b></p><p><b>Most people's preference risk is habitually maintained at a fixed level, so they can't dare to increase their positions to greatly exceed the normal level when the decisive opportunity comes;</b></p><p>The remaining small number of people with higher risk appetite often expose high position risk to non-winner opportunities.</p><p><b>Most investments are likely to be \"winners and losers\"-either the biggest profit or the fatal loss, so any investment needs to be fully planned from the start</b>I would rather miss it, not make a mistake, and not trade at will. Before buying, ask yourself a few questions:</p><p>1. Does it conform to your past high-winning company model? What is its maximum upside and downside over the period of your holdings?</p><p>2. What kind of position does your calculated expected rate of return match to meet the income requirements of the winner?</p><p>3. What is the maximum position calculated by Kelly's formula for the above odds and winning rate?</p><p>4. To reach the maximum position, you will buy in several tranches. How to meet the lower buying cost and the appropriate position at the same time?</p><p>5. Under what circumstances do you judge that it is not a \"winning hand\" and converts it into a general investment?</p><p>6. If it falls sharply in the middle, what channels do you have to verify your judgment on fundamentals? What do you do if it falls below the maximum downside you envisioned?</p><p>Without Apple, Buffett's investment in his later years would have become very mediocre. You can think of it as good luck, but it can also be considered as the inevitability of the investment system. Without Apple, there would be bananas.</p><p>If the big opportunity is a big fish, the investment system is a net,<b>The decisive opportunity may seem sudden, but it is actually because you choose every investment carefully using the criteria of \"winner or loser\".</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night reading | How to grasp major opportunities in investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight reading | How to grasp major opportunities in investment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">思想钢印</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-27 23:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Odds, Win Rates and Reasonable Positions<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ef80cc1d747969b23f9fd049884f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1</b><b>/7</b></p><p><b>\"100-20\" rule</b></p><p>Investors who often review their trading records in the past period must have an experience,<b>Account profits and losses are made up of one or more of the most earned or lost</b>The specific ones are related to the degree of position dispersion and the holding cycle.</p><p>This is more cruel than the 28-8 principle<b>“100-20”</b>Rules:</p><p><b>100% of the excess gains (losses) come from 20% of the trading volume, and most of the rest are profit-loss and index-like</b>Unless it is ultra-short-term trading or quantitative funds, basically everyone does.</p><p>The one or two transactions that allow you to reach your annual earnings goal are those that keep you from achieving your goal, also because of the one or two that lose money. These two investments are what we usually say<b>\"Winner and Loser\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736b32f451aae9adcd9eacbd096ed7b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although most investments come to a certain point, you realize that it is not a \"winner\", but you don't know it beforehand,<b>So most of your investment decisions should be made carefully with a \"winner or loser\" mentality</b>。</p><p>Understanding the relationship between the winner and the final income can allow you to establish the most basic stock selection criteria:</p><p><b>Assuming that your one-year income target is 15%, assuming that the market rises 5% this year, then the winner and loser will bear 10% of the income of the whole account.</b></p><p>Assume that your maximum position of a single stock is an average of 40% per year. Assuming that each position is held for one year, then the stock selection that meets the income target has the following criteria:</p><p><b>1. Let you only dare to have stocks with an average position of 20% last year, but the expected rate of return in one year is 50%;</b></p><p><b>2. Let you dare to stock with an average position of 30% last year, and the expected rate of return in one year is 33%;</b></p><p><b>3. Let you dare the stock with an average position of 40% last year, and the expected rate of return for one year is 25%</b></p><p>If the account excess return is determined by the two highest profitable stocks, the expected return requirement is halved, and so on.</p><p>This basic stock selection criterion includes two of the simplest constraints:<b>Good investments can either make you dare to take positions (Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>), or the expected yield is high (Bo dilemma reversal)</b>。</p><p>First of all, we have to solve a problem, what is \"expected rate of return\"?</p><p><b>2/7</b></p><p><b>How to Calculate Expected Yield</b></p><p>Many people have studied the company, calculated the performance growth rate and the rationality of valuation, and felt that the company had double the space from the target price, so they thought it was a stock that could \"rise by 100% a year\".</p><p>This statement is wrong. Just now, we only calculated that the upward space of this stock is 100% in the most ideal case, but we haven't considered the downward space, that is:</p><p>If the positive logic envisioned at the time of buying doesn't materialize, where will the stock price fall?</p><p>In addition, it is necessary to consider the up and down probabilities to calculate<b>Expected yield</b>：</p><p><b>(Upspace * Profit probability-Downspace * Loss probability) /Principal investment</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73beb93ab2af8747252a5509e5ad82f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming that the stock price is 10 yuan, the limit profit and the limit loss are 10 yuan and-4 yuan, and the probability is 50% each, then the expected rate of return of this investment is:</p><p>（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%</p><p>Of course, this is just a simplified formula. In actual investment, within the limit value, the investment result has various possibilities, corresponding to different probabilities. However, as the standard for individual investors to select stocks, it is enough to only calculate the upward and downward space of the limit, and think that the winning rate is 50%.</p><p>Look When Calculating Expected Yield<b>Up space and down space, actually judging the odds</b>。</p><p><b>3/7</b></p><p><b>Odds are a limit</b></p><p>The concept of odds comes from betting, and the odds of betting can be calculated because:</p><p>1. There are only a few results;</p><p>2. Every result is a clear probability.</p><p>But that's not the case with stocks- -</p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are not explicit outcomes, but the limits of outcomes, considering small probability events, i.e.,<b>In the best of cases, how much can it go up; At worst, how much can it fall?</b></p><p>Extreme upward space, that is, under optimistic conditions,<b>All the benefits are realized in performance, the target price corresponding to the highest optimistic valuation range that the market may give</b>Many brokerage research reports will give it. Many people think that the target price is too high, but this is only an optimistic upper limit of space.</p><p>In the extreme downward space, we need to judge if the favorable logic you think has not been fulfilled, the expenses have been spent, and the current products have problems again. In this case, what level of performance is probably? In the past three years of history, what kind of valuation level is the worst for the market in this case.</p><p>It can be seen from this point,<b>Odds are limiting concepts, a relatively certain calculable value</b>In contrast, the winning rate is a probability, which is vague, so calculating the odds is the most critical part of the overall investment process, and you need to know the following points about the investment object:</p><p><b>Core growth logic and major risk points</b></p><p><b>2. Understand the overall history and trends of the industry and the company's operation in the past few years</b></p><p><b>3. The best and worst periods in the past, specific data of operations</b></p><p><b>4. The view of the market at different stages and the limit valuation given</b></p><p>The more important role of calculating odds is to judge the buying cost. If the odds of the target you are optimistic about are not enough-which is a very likely situation for good companies, then you can calculate what price you want to fall to, and the odds are suitable.</p><p>So, how is the winning rate of stock investment determined?</p><p><b>4/7</b></p><p><b>Winning rate is a criterion</b></p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are the limit of the outcome and therefore can be calculated, but the winning percentage of stock investing is too subjective.</p><p>The current price of a stock is 10 yuan, and there are too many possibilities for the stock price after one year.<b>The winning rate is to describe the probability of the stock price appearing at every price point, which is obviously impossible to calculate.</b></p><p>What's more, investors can terminate at any time. Even if it loses money after a year, it doesn't exclude you from selling when you make a profit midway, that is to say,<b>You can use strategy to lock in winning percentage</b>。</p><p>So the winning rate here is an approximate probability, that is, after one year, the probability of making a profit or exceeding the increase of the broader market.</p><p>How can this be judged?</p><p>The winning rate of a certain stock after one year's investment is a conditional probability, and its<b>Standard expression</b>Yes:</p><p><b>If I've bought countless of these stocks, what percentage of them have risen a year later?</b></p><p>So strictly speaking, there is no way to calculate the probability of that stock, because each stock is unique.</p><p>But you can change your mind,<b>Stocks are different, but the criteria for stock selection can be the same</b>。</p><p>So the actual win rate is judged like this:</p><p><b>1. From the transaction records of making money in the past, summarize a stock selection standard with high winning rate and the standard of buying time. The more specific the requirements, the better;</b></p><p><b>2. The more the company meets this standard, the higher the winning rate. Considering the judgment error and deviation, the winning rate can be considered to be 50%.</b></p><p>Stock selection criteria include:</p><p>1. Fixed industry characteristics, such as high prosperity industries, consumption industries, cyclical industries, etc.</p><p>Development stage or market value characteristics of the company</p><p>3. Other constraints such as competitive landscape and industry space may not be used, but usually the more specific the better</p><p>4. Growth logic, such as capacity investment, category expansion, price increase, etc.</p><p>5. Growth rate requirements</p><p>6. Requirements for other personal preferences</p><p>The timing criteria for selection include:</p><p>1. The position of the inflection point of business, left or right</p><p>2. Historical valuation position requirements</p><p>3. Catalysts such as financial reports and negative market events</p><p>4. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>Anyway,<b>If the specific winning rate data is changed into \"meeting a certain winning rate standard\", it can be considered as 50% winning rate if it meets a certain set standard.</b></p><p>With the win rate (which is actually the timing criterion for stock picking) and the odds, calculate the method at the beginning and determine the lowest position that meets the expected yield criterion.</p><p>So, is there a maximum position requirement?</p><p>Yes, that's Kelly's formula.</p><p><b>5/7</b></p><p><b>The requirements of Kelly's formula for positions</b></p><p>Many retail investors have the following two bad habits in position control:</p><p>Habit 1. Hold more than 50% positions in investments with higher winning percentage or higher odds</p><p>Habit 2. Spread positions, and every position is very average</p><p>The problem of habit 2 is obvious. Through the relationship between \"yield, expectation and position\" analyzed earlier, it can be seen that different opportunities should be given to different positions. If you see it correctly, you should increase your positions. If you don't see it correctly, but if you have imagination, you are suitable for small positions.</p><p><b>\"Good company, good price\" should be followed by a \"good position\"</b>Otherwise, your earnings will still be mediocre.</p><p>But Habit 1 also conforms to the previous formula. In theory, as long as 15% of the expected value, you can fully position a stock.</p><p>But,<b>Kelly's formula tells you that under no circumstances can you take a full position in a stock</b>。</p><p>If a company on the verge of delisting wants to reorganize, if it succeeds, its stock price can be fivefolded, and if it fails, it is worthless to delist. If you get insider information, there is a 99% probability of success. How much principal should you bet?</p><p>Obviously, under such superior conditions, you should not bet the whole principal. Once you step on the 1% thunder, it will be doomed.</p><p>There is an optimal ratio between position and odds, which is the following Kelly formula (a simplified version for stocks):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/934fbfcafdecb9475e1087c26d43ad67\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>I won't introduce the specific principle. Many articles have introduced it, only its conclusion:</p><p><b>If a stock has a 2:1 odds and a 50% win rate over the next year, the best ratio of your average position ceiling is 25%</b>— — The reason for the upper limit is that most people are too optimistic about odds and winning rates.</p><p>If the lower limit of the reasonable position calculated earlier is 33%, this investment opportunity should be temporarily abandoned, or positions should be opened in batches, and then positions should be added when the price falls to a reasonable price, so that the average buying cost meets the odds and yield requirements.</p><p>So<b>Investment opportunities below 2:1 odds, where it is difficult to meet both the expected yield and Kelly's formula requirements, should be abandoned.</b></p><p>Continue to look at the results of Kelly's formula:<b>If it's 3:1 odds, that's 33% of the position, and if it's 4:1 odds, that's 37.5%.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, with odds exceeding 4:1, usually betting restructuring, major innovation, cycle reversal or dilemma reversal, it is difficult to guarantee a win rate of more than 50% (unless there is inside information), and the position can't be raised.<b>Therefore, it is not appropriate to use more than 40% positions in most opportunities.</b></p><p>According to Kelly's formula,<b>With a 50% chance of winning, no matter how big the odds, the position cannot exceed 50%.</b></p><p>So what if you think the win rate is over 50%? As the rise and fall of individual stocks largely depends on the index, and the index is an unexpected factor, no matter how good a company is, it can be regarded as a 50% winning rate within the year.</p><p>The conclusion is that the largest position is 20% to 40% position, and the upward space is required to be more than twice the downward space.</p><p>Obviously, most investments, we all realize at one point that it's not a \"winner\", so how do we deal with it?</p><p><b>6/7</b></p><p><b>What if it's not the winner or loser?</b></p><p>Of course, most investments will not end up being \"winners\", usually for the following reasons:</p><p><b>Reason 1. The investment logic is not realized as you expected</b></p><p><b>Reason 2: Your buying cost is too high</b></p><p><b>Reason 3. Sell prematurely during the rise, or fail to seize the opportunity of adding positions at a low price</b></p><p><b>Reason 4. Problems with fund allocation and insufficient positions</b></p><p><b>Reason 5. Market style deviates in a direction that is unfavorable to you</b></p><p>The first two reasons are your misjudgment,<b>The first reason is the error of buying logic and upward space judgment, and the second reason is the error of odds judgment.</b></p><p><b>The third reason is the operation factor, \"winning or losing hand\" is vigorous to make a miracle</b>, there are some companies that you have a lot of faith in, and when they fall to incredible prices at special times, dare to add them to the largest position; In the process of heavy positions rising, we should also hold it.</p><p><b>The fourth reason is the problem of fund allocation</b>, when opportunities arise, funds are wasted on \"non-winner\" opportunities.</p><p>The chances of winning and losing are unevenly distributed, and you need to be patient and dare to make decisions. The typical chances of winning and losing in 2022 are concentrated in two stages:</p><p><b>1. The opportunity to fall out</b>: Most growth stocks in late April, liquor and Hong Kong stocks in late October</p><p><b>2. The opportunity to rise out</b>: Coal stocks from January to April, new energy sector from May to August</p><p>As long as there is a certain position to seize any of these opportunities, and there is no major mistake of high takeover, it can obviously outperform the broader market last year.</p><p>On the contrary, if you judge that the investment has been determined to fail to be a \"key transaction,\" the signs are:</p><p><b>1. Logic has changed</b></p><p><b>2. The stock price has risen greatly, missing the opportunity to take a position</b></p><p>If these two signs appear, it is \"non-winner trade\", and the investment goal will also change.<b>The most important thing is to prevent it from turning back into a \"decisive loss\" in a \"winning hand\".</b></p><p>Then the operating idea is obvious,<b>Profits should be realized in time, and losses should be stopped in time.</b></p><p>The only exception is that the expected returns caused by market style have not been realized, while the fundamental logic of enterprises remains unchanged.<b>It both means that the odds are higher, and it also means that it will take you longer to realize this gain, which is equivalent to moving the chances of \"winning or losing hand\" to the next stage, which is to hold the shares unchanged.</b></p><p>If the income of \"winning and losing hand\" has been realized, especially in the short term, usually the stock price increase is already on the high side, it is necessary to regard it as a new investment, re-evaluate the expected income, odds and winning rate, and reallocate positions.</p><p><b>7/7</b></p><p><b>Every investment should meet the criteria of \"winning and losing hand\"</b></p><p><b>Most people's preference risk is habitually maintained at a fixed level, so they can't dare to increase their positions to greatly exceed the normal level when the decisive opportunity comes;</b></p><p>The remaining small number of people with higher risk appetite often expose high position risk to non-winner opportunities.</p><p><b>Most investments are likely to be \"winners and losers\"-either the biggest profit or the fatal loss, so any investment needs to be fully planned from the start</b>I would rather miss it, not make a mistake, and not trade at will. Before buying, ask yourself a few questions:</p><p>1. Does it conform to your past high-winning company model? What is its maximum upside and downside over the period of your holdings?</p><p>2. What kind of position does your calculated expected rate of return match to meet the income requirements of the winner?</p><p>3. What is the maximum position calculated by Kelly's formula for the above odds and winning rate?</p><p>4. To reach the maximum position, you will buy in several tranches. How to meet the lower buying cost and the appropriate position at the same time?</p><p>5. Under what circumstances do you judge that it is not a \"winning hand\" and converts it into a general investment?</p><p>6. If it falls sharply in the middle, what channels do you have to verify your judgment on fundamentals? What do you do if it falls below the maximum downside you envisioned?</p><p>Without Apple, Buffett's investment in his later years would have become very mediocre. You can think of it as good luck, but it can also be considered as the inevitability of the investment system. Without Apple, there would be bananas.</p><p>If the big opportunity is a big fish, the investment system is a net,<b>The decisive opportunity may seem sudden, but it is actually because you choose every investment carefully using the criteria of \"winner or loser\".</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rHZkSN7qNdePt6GnlT85zw\">思想钢印</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rHZkSN7qNdePt6GnlT85zw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116320153","content_text":"赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比二八原则更残酷的“100-20”规律：100%的超额收益（亏损）来源于20%的交易额，其余大部分交易都是盈亏相抵和指数差不多，除非是超短线交易或者是量化基金，基本上每个人都是如此。让你达成年度收益目标的交易，就是那么一两笔，让你无法实现目标，也是因为那亏损的一两笔。这一两笔投资，就是平时说的“胜负手”。虽然大部分投资到一定时候，你就意识到它不是“胜负手”，但事先你并不知道，所以你的大部分投资决策都要以“胜负手”的心态谨慎做出。理解了胜负手与最终收益的关系，就可以让你建立一个最基础的选股标准：假设你一年的收益目标是15%，假设大盘今年上涨5%，那么，胜负手就要承担整个账户10%的收益。假设你平时单支股票最大持仓为年平均四成仓，假设每笔持仓一年，那么符合收益目标的选股，有以下的标准：1、让你只敢上年平均20%仓位的股票，但一年预期收益率为50%；2、让你敢上年平均三成仓位的股票，一年预期收益率为33%；3、让你敢上年平均四成仓位的股票，一年预期收益率为25%如果账户超额收益由盈利最高的两支股票决定，那这个预期收益率的要求就减半，以此类推。这个基础选股标准包括两个最简单的约束条件：好的投资，要么让你敢上仓位（巴菲特的苹果），要么预期收益率高（博困境反转）。首先，我们要解决一个问题，什么叫“预期收益率”？2/7如何计算预期收益率很多人研究了公司，计算了业绩增速，估值合理性，觉得公司离目标价有一倍空间，就认为这是一个“一年能涨100%”的股票。这个说法是错的，刚才只计算了这个股票最理想的情况下，向上的空间是100%，还没有考虑向下的空间，即：如果买入时设想的那些利好逻辑没有兑现，那股价会跌到哪里？此外还要考虑向上和向下的概率，才能计算出预期收益率：（向上空间*盈利概率-向下空间*亏损概率）/投入本金假设股价10元，极限盈利和极限亏损为10元和 -4元，概率各为50%，那么这笔投资的预期收益率为：（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%当然，这只是一个简化公式，实际投资中，在极限值以内，投资结果有各种可能，对应不同的概率，但作为个人投资者选股的标准，只计算极限向上向下空间，并认为胜率为50%，也够了。计算预期收益率时要看向上空间和向下空间，实际上就是判断赔率。3/7赔率是一个极限赔率的概念源自博彩，博彩的赔率之所以能够计算出来，是因为：1、结果就几个；2、每一个结果都是明确的概率。但股票不是这样——正如上面分析的，股票投资的赔率不是明确的结果，而是结果的极限，考虑的是小概率事件，即，在最好的情况下，能涨多少；最差的情况下，能跌多少？极限向上空间，就是乐观情况下，所有的利好都兑现在业绩上，市场可能给予的最高乐观估值区间对应的目标价，很多券商研报都会给出，很多人觉得目标价太高，但这只是一个乐观的空间上限而已。极限向下空间，需要判断如果你认为的那些利好逻辑都没有兑现，费用又花出去了，现在的产品又出现了问题，这种情况下，业绩大概在什么水平，近三年的历史中，这种情况下市场最差给什么样的估值水平。从这一点可以看出，赔率是极限概念，是一个相对确定的可计算的值，相比之下，胜率是一个概率，是模糊的，所以计算赔率是整体投资过程中最关键的一环，需要你对投资对象了解以下几点：1、核心增长逻辑和主要风险点2、了解行业和公司过去几年经营的整体历程和趋势3、过去最好和最差的时期，经营的具体数据4、市场在不同阶段的看法，给出的极限估值计算赔率更重要的作用是判断买入成本，如果你看好的标的赔率不够——这是好公司非常可能出现的情况，那你就可以算一算，要跌到什么价格，赔率就合适了。那么，股票投资的胜率又是如何确定的呢？4/7胜率是一个标准正如上面分析的，股票投资的赔率是结果的极限，因此可以被计算，但股票投资的胜率就太主观了。某股票现价10元， 1年后的股价可能性实在是太多，胜率就是描述股价在每一个价位上出现的概率，这显然是无法计算的。更何况，投资者可以随时终止，就算一年后它是亏的，也不排除你中途在盈利的时候卖出，也就是说，你可以用策略去锁定胜率。所以这里的胜率是一个近似的概率，即一年后，盈利或超过大盘涨幅的概率。这怎么判断呢？某一个股票投资一年后的胜率，是一个条件概率，它的标准表达是：如果我买过无数支这样的股票，它们中一年后上涨的情况占比是多少？所以严格的说，没有办法计算该股票的概率，因为每一支股票都是独一无二的。但你可改变一下思路，股票是不一样的，但选股标准可以是一样的。所以实际胜率是这样判断的：1、从过去赚钱的交易记录中，总结出一个胜率较高的选股标准和买入时点的标准，要求越具体越好；2、越符合这个标准的公司，越拥有较高的胜率，考虑到判断误差和偏差，就可以认为胜率为50%。选股标准包括：1、固定的行业特征，比如高景气度行业，消费行业，周期行业等等2、公司发展阶段或市值特征3、竞争格局、行业空间等其他约束条件，可以不用，但通常越具体越好4、成长逻辑，比如产能投放，品类扩张，价格上涨，等等5、增速要求6、其他个人喜好的要求选择时机标准包括：1、经营拐点的位置，左侧或右侧2、历史估值位置要求3、财报、市场利空事件冲击等催化剂4、其他个人喜好的要求总之，把具体的胜率数据变成“符合某个胜率的标准”的是与否，符合某一个既定标准的，就可以认为是50%胜率。有了胜率（实际上是选股择时标准）和赔率，就按开头的方法计算，确定符合预期收益率标准的最低仓位了。那么，是不是还有最大仓位要求呢？有的，那就是凯利公式。5/7凯利公式对仓位的要求很多散户在仓位控制上有下面两个不太好的习惯：习惯1、在胜率较高或赔率较高的投资上，持有超过50%的仓位习惯2、分散持仓，每一笔持仓都很平均习惯2的问题很明显，通过前面分析的“收益率、期待值、仓位”三者的关系，可以看到，不同的机会应该给予不同的仓位，看准了，就要加大仓位干，看不准，但有想象力，才适合小仓位试。“好公司，好价格”后面还要再加一个“好仓位”，否则，你的收益仍然会很平庸。但习惯1也符合前面的公式，理论上说，只要15%的期待值，就可以全仓一个股票。但是，凯利公式告诉你，任何情况下，都不能全仓一个股票。假如一家濒临退市的公司要重组，如果成功股价可以翻五倍，如果失败就退市一文不值，你得到内线消息，99%的概率会成功，你应该押多少本金呢？显然在这样优越的条件下，你也不应该押上全部的本金，一旦你踩上1%的雷，就万劫不复了。仓位和赔率胜率本身是有最优比例的，就是下面的凯利公式（针对股票的简化版）：具体的原理我就不介绍了，很多文章都有介绍，只说它的结论：如果一支股票未来一年是2:1的赔率，50%的胜率，你的平均仓位上限最佳比例是25%——之所以是上限，需要考虑到大部分人对赔率和胜率判断过于乐观。如果前面计算出的合理仓位下限是33%，这笔投资机会就应该被暂时放弃，或者分批建仓，等跌到合理价格再加仓，让平均买入成本符合赔率和收益率要求。所以低于2:1赔率的投资机会，很难同时满足预期收益率和凯利公式的要求，都应该被放弃。继续看凯利公式的结果：如果是3:1的赔率，那就是33%的仓位，如果是4:1的赔率，那就是37.5%。一般而言，超过4:1的赔率，通常是博重组、重大创新、周期反转或困境反转，胜率就很难保证50%以上（除非有内幕消息），仓位也提不上去，所以绝大部分机会都不宜用4成以上的仓位。根据凯利公式，在50%的胜率机会下，无论多么大的赔率，仓位都不能超过50%。那么如果你认为胜率超过50%呢？由于个股的涨跌很大程度上取决于指数，而指数是预期之外的因素，所以再优秀的公司，年度以内都可以看成50%的胜率。结论就是，最大仓位就是两成到四成仓位，并要求向上空间是向下空间的2倍以上。很明显，大部分投资，我们都会在某一个时刻意识到它不是“胜负手”，那我们该怎么处理呢？6/7不是胜负手怎么办？当然，大部分投资最终都不会是“胜负手”，通常有以下原因：原因1、投资逻辑没有如你预期的实现原因2、你的买入成本过高原因3、上涨过程中过早卖出，或没有抓住低价加仓的机会原因4、资金分配出问题，仓位不够原因5、市场风格向对你不利的方向偏离前两个原因是你判断错误，原因一是买入逻辑和向上空间判断失误，原因二是赔率判断失误。原因三是操作的因素，“胜负手”是大力出奇迹，有一些你很有信仰的公司，在特殊时候跌到匪夷所思的价格，要敢于加到最大仓位；在重仓上涨的过程中，也要拿得住。原因四是资金分配的问题，在机会出现时，资金浪费在“非胜负手”的机会上。胜负手机会是分布不均的，需要有耐心，也要敢于决策，2022年典型的胜负手机会，集中出现在两个阶段：1、跌出来的机会：4月下旬的大部分成长股，10月下旬的白酒和港股2、涨出来的机会：1~4月的煤炭股，5~8月的新能源板块只要有一定仓位抓住其中的任何一个机会，并且没有高位接盘的重大错误，去年都可以明显跑赢大盘。相反，如果你判断该笔投资已确定无法成为“关键交易”，标志在于：1、逻辑变了2、股价涨幅已大，错过上仓位的时机如果出现了这两个标志，就是“非胜负手交易”，投资目标也要变，最重要的是防止它重新变成“胜负手”中的“决定性亏损”。那么操作思路就很明显了，盈利要及时兑现，亏损要及时止损。唯一例外的原因五，市场风格造成的预期收益没有实现，而企业基本面逻辑不变，它既代表赔率变高，也意味着你需要更长的时间去实现这个收益，相当于把“胜负手”的机会移到下一阶段，那就是持股不变。如果已经实现了“胜负手”的收益，特别是短期内实现，通常股价涨幅已经偏高，就需要当成一笔新的投资，重新评估预期收益、赔率和胜率，重新分配仓位。7/7每一笔投资都要符合“胜负手”的标准大部分人的偏好风险都习惯性地维持在一个固定的水平，因而无法在决定性的机会来临时，敢于把仓位加到大幅超过正常水平；剩下的小部分风险偏好较高的人，又常常会把高仓位风险暴露在非胜负手的机会上。大部分投资都可能成为“胜负手”——可能是最大盈利，也可能是致命亏损，所以任何投资从一开始就需要有完整计划，宁可错过，不可做错，不能随意交易，在买入之前，要问自己几个问题：1、它是否符合你过去的高胜率公司模型？它在你的持股期间的最大上升空间和下跌空间是多少？2、你算出来的预期收益率与什么样的仓位配合，才符合胜负手的收益要求？3、上述赔率和胜率根据凯利公式算出来的最大仓位是多少？4、达到最大仓位，你将分几笔买入，如何同时满足较低的买入成本和合适的仓位？5、什么情况下，你判断它不是“胜负手”，转换成一般的投资？6、如果中途大跌，你有什么渠道去验证你对基本面的判断？如果跌破你设想的最大下跌空间，你怎么办？如果没有苹果，巴菲特晚年的投资就变得非常平庸，你可以认为是好运气，但也可以认为是投资体系的必然，没有苹果也会有香蕉。如果说大机会是一条大鱼，投资体系就是一张网，决定性的机会看似突如其来，实际上是因为你每一笔投资都用“胜负手”的标准去谨慎选择。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":651814892,"gmtCreate":1681742212917,"gmtModify":1681742212917,"author":{"id":"180489801557520","authorId":"180489801557520","name":"WstreetBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ffcee2a6d73f35b1d68c916a7e6856","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"180489801557520","idStr":"180489801557520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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