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家豪Lee
2023-03-23
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美联储如期加息25个基点，决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声
家豪Lee
2023-02-02
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02:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储如期加息25个基点，决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143226275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。</b></blockquote><p>3月22日周三，美联储如期加息25个基点，令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间，为2007年底、即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。</p><p>这是美联储自去年3月以来连续第九次加息，也是连续第二次加息幅度放慢至25个基点。市场预计美国加息周期接近尾声，今年底之前或开启降息令利率降至4.25%-4.5%，以应对经济放缓。</p><p>备受关注的决议声明称，美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。<b>有分析称，这份决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声，</b>声明写到：</p><blockquote>“委员会将密切关注未来的信息并评估对货币政策的影响。委员会预计，一些额外的政策紧缩（some additional policy firming）可能是适当的，以便获得对足够限制经济增长的货币政策立场，使通胀随着时间的推移回到2%。”</blockquote><p>该措辞与之前的声明不同，之前的声明表明“持续加息（ongoing increases）是适宜的”。</p><p>在回应近期银行业危机时，声明提到：</p><blockquote>“美国银行体系健全且富有弹性，最近的事态发展可能导致家庭和企业的信贷条件收紧，并对经济活动、就业招聘和通胀造成压力。这些影响的程度是不确定的。委员会仍然高度关注通胀风险。 ”</blockquote><p>一同发布的美联储官员利率意见“点阵图”显示，其中位数预期是显示，2023年末的利率仍为5.1%，维持去年底的预期不变，2024年底料为4.3%：</p><blockquote>预计2023年年底的联邦基金利率为5.1%，12月份料为5.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>预计2024年年底的联邦基金利率为4.3%，12月份料为4.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>预计2025年年底的联邦基金利率为3.1%，12月份料3.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>预计长期联邦基金利率预期为2.5%，12月份料为2.5%。</blockquote><blockquote><b>有分析指出，这说明今年美联储仅有空间再加息一次。</b></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111fab0d5436ee43c3c7b28950d9fe85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></blockquote><p>在每季度发布的经济预测方面，美联储下调未来两年美国GDP预期：</p><blockquote>美联储下调美国2023年GDP增长预期至0.4%，去年12月料增0.5%。</blockquote><blockquote>下调美国2024年GDP增长预期至1.2%，去年12月料增1.6%。</blockquote><blockquote>上调美国2025年GDP增长预期1.9%，去年12月料增1.8%。</blockquote><blockquote>维持更长周期的美国GDP增幅预期在1.8%。</blockquote><p>同时，美联储进一步上调美国今年通胀率预期：</p><blockquote>美联储上调2023年PCE通胀预期至3.3%，12月份料为3.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>2024年PCE通胀预期2.5%，与12月份持平。</blockquote><blockquote>2025年PCE通胀预期2.1%，与12月份持平</blockquote><blockquote>维持更长周期的PCE通胀预期在2.0%不变。</blockquote><p>数据公布后，美股三大股指走高。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a947c5009c6cfab63e04a0e2564db35e\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储如期加息25个基点，决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-23 02:00 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684674><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。3月22日周三，美联储如期加息25个基点，令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间，为2007年底、即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。这是美联储自去年3月以来连续...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684674\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684674","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143226275","content_text":"决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。3月22日周三，美联储如期加息25个基点，令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间，为2007年底、即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。这是美联储自去年3月以来连续第九次加息，也是连续第二次加息幅度放慢至25个基点。市场预计美国加息周期接近尾声，今年底之前或开启降息令利率降至4.25%-4.5%，以应对经济放缓。备受关注的决议声明称，美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。有分析称，这份决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声，声明写到：“委员会将密切关注未来的信息并评估对货币政策的影响。委员会预计，一些额外的政策紧缩（some additional policy firming）可能是适当的，以便获得对足够限制经济增长的货币政策立场，使通胀随着时间的推移回到2%。”该措辞与之前的声明不同，之前的声明表明“持续加息（ongoing increases）是适宜的”。在回应近期银行业危机时，声明提到：“美国银行体系健全且富有弹性，最近的事态发展可能导致家庭和企业的信贷条件收紧，并对经济活动、就业招聘和通胀造成压力。这些影响的程度是不确定的。委员会仍然高度关注通胀风险。 ”一同发布的美联储官员利率意见“点阵图”显示，其中位数预期是显示，2023年末的利率仍为5.1%，维持去年底的预期不变，2024年底料为4.3%：预计2023年年底的联邦基金利率为5.1%，12月份料为5.1%。预计2024年年底的联邦基金利率为4.3%，12月份料为4.1%。预计2025年年底的联邦基金利率为3.1%，12月份料3.1%。预计长期联邦基金利率预期为2.5%，12月份料为2.5%。有分析指出，这说明今年美联储仅有空间再加息一次。在每季度发布的经济预测方面，美联储下调未来两年美国GDP预期：美联储下调美国2023年GDP增长预期至0.4%，去年12月料增0.5%。下调美国2024年GDP增长预期至1.2%，去年12月料增1.6%。上调美国2025年GDP增长预期1.9%，去年12月料增1.8%。维持更长周期的美国GDP增幅预期在1.8%。同时，美联储进一步上调美国今年通胀率预期：美联储上调2023年PCE通胀预期至3.3%，12月份料为3.1%。2024年PCE通胀预期2.5%，与12月份持平。2025年PCE通胀预期2.1%，与12月份持平维持更长周期的PCE通胀预期在2.0%不变。数据公布后，美股三大股指走高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":622188907,"gmtCreate":1675300366711,"gmtModify":1676538990603,"author":{"id":"3440587783569585","authorId":"3440587783569585","name":"家豪Lee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2693b7340c4c47d4747d27179c90dc0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/622188907","repostId":"2308106790","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":650720489,"gmtCreate":1679522037443,"gmtModify":1679522793777,"author":{"id":"3440587783569585","authorId":"3440587783569585","name":"家豪Lee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2693b7340c4c47d4747d27179c90dc0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀😀","listText":"😀😀","text":"😀😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/650720489","repostId":"1143226275","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":622188907,"gmtCreate":1675300366711,"gmtModify":1676538990603,"author":{"id":"3440587783569585","authorId":"3440587783569585","name":"家豪Lee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2693b7340c4c47d4747d27179c90dc0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/622188907","repostId":"2308106790","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
