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喵个猫

喵个猫

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2022-11-29

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2021-09-03

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$协鑫新能源(00451)$

2022-09-22

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00451\">$协鑫新能源(00451)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00451\">$协鑫新能源(00451)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$协鑫新能源(00451)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6aedc54653ed00c925ff3fa5bf0f40d","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335196775293008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620855278,"gmtCreate":1669686180995,"gmtModify":1676538223085,"author":{"id":"3454045658283227","authorId":"3454045658283227","name":"喵个猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cc8cd361e47c57dd7bca3d95d08da","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3454045658283227","authorIdStr":"3454045658283227"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ETF","listText":"ETF","text":"ETF","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620855278","repostId":"620936515","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815693859,"gmtCreate":1630672875671,"gmtModify":1676530372260,"author":{"id":"3454045658283227","authorId":"3454045658283227","name":"喵个猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cc8cd361e47c57dd7bca3d95d08da","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3454045658283227","authorIdStr":"3454045658283227"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla","listText":"Tesla","text":"Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815693859","repostId":"1179887160","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179887160","pubTimestamp":1630663068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179887160?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 17:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"涨势再起，特斯拉股价能否冲上1000美元大关？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179887160","media":"美港电讯","summary":"惯于看营收估值倍数的投资者转用EBIT估值倍数来评估股价或更可取。","content":"<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价年初走势不佳，后强劲复苏，过去三个月表现跑赢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>。</li>\n <li>预计未来特斯拉EBIT（息税前利润）增长强劲，投资者应使用EBIT估值倍数评估股价。</li>\n <li>分析师列出了特斯拉股价能否闯入1000美元大关的因素。</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>投资观点</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉在华尔街的关注度数一数二，33位分析师发表了针对特斯拉股价的观点。可以说，这只个股极具争议：华尔街精英分析师的目标价差异悬殊，从540美元到860美元不等，14位分析师予以强烈看涨/看涨评级，12位予以中性评级，7位予以强烈看跌/看跌的评级。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e1b92a468da788ee5ba6817b2264a8e\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>再提一嘴，有名的特斯拉多头，方舟投资CEO及CIO木头姐Cathie Wood，最近重申看好特斯拉，甚至强调没有看到任何特斯拉股价泡沫形成；另一方面，华尔街对特斯拉股价意见不一（从上图的中性评级可以看出）反映了市场的不确定情绪，木头姐认为这有利于特斯拉越过“忧虑之墙”（指金融市场克服一系列负面因素并持续上升的周期性趋势），到2025年股价将攀升至3000美元。</p>\n<p>究竟特斯拉股价能否闯进1000美元大关？本文列出几大要点。</p>\n<p><b>特斯拉股价近日表现</b></p>\n<p>下图为特斯拉、福特汽车、通用汽车三个月股价表现对比（截至2021年9月2日）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174e2f5700526705625d8c913c3ebb91\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>下图为特斯拉、VLUE、VUG三个月股价表现对比（截至2021年9月2日）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909b5d89d048b104d44faba3d75b93cd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>毫无疑问，今年特斯拉明显跑输大盘，截至2021年9月2日的回报率仅为4.83%。然而过去三个月表现好转，回报率达18.6%，大大跑赢福特汽车(F.N)-11%和通用汽车(GM.N)-17.1%的回报率。成长股到价值股的轮换势头已惊人消退，成长股再次成为低价买入者的投资重点。对比过去三个月Vanguard成长股指数ETF(VUG)与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>安硕MSCI美元价值因素ETF(VLUE)的表现，这一点可见一斑。</p>\n<p>随着成长股和特斯拉股价涨势恢复，投资者是时候思考，特斯拉能否突破拆股后达到的900美元历史高位，冲入1000美元大关。</p>\n<p><b>关注特斯拉EBIT增长</b></p>\n<p>下图为特斯拉季度出售碳排放信用额度的营收：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54dabfbe36afc53a1b13a8610b0ef34b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>二季度数据打脸特斯拉诋毁者的一贯说辞：特斯拉靠卖“碳”盈利。最近的季报显示，特斯拉季度营收同比增长308.3%至13.6亿美元，业绩亮眼。此外，尽管过去5个季度，特斯拉出售碳排放信用额度的营收最少达3.54亿美元，但随着公司规模不断扩大，特斯拉的基础经营业绩正取得巨大进步。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0555474643f33f10d16dd192a3ae4d\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着公司运营规模扩大，特斯拉EBIT状况稳步改善，Q2录得32.5亿美元，前12个月EBIT累计增长7.8%。</p>\n<p>因此，投资者需考虑特斯拉EBIT未来将如何增长，从而了解如何正确评估特斯拉，看特斯拉能否冲入1000美元大关。</p>\n<p><b>特斯拉EBIT未来增速如何？</b></p>\n<p>下图为华尔街对特斯拉营收的平均共识预期：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2410d4ebc4c8fec1679d1e692220d4\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">下图为华尔街对特斯拉复合年增长率的预测：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fccdb237c8db92f64db2c6b4056e8ee2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从图中可以看出，即使是华尔街对特斯拉持中性评级的分析师，也预计特斯拉经营业绩继续提升。华尔街预测，特斯拉2025财年将录得营收1204亿美元（方舟投资预测为7000亿美元，华尔街预测值为其17.2%），这意味着年复合增长率达到惊人的24.4%。</p>\n<p>与之相比，通用汽车、丰田和大众到2025财年的营收年复合增长率分别为5.15%、3.14%和4.33%。华尔街自然期待，随着传统汽车制造商争相准备在未来几年大举转向电动汽车市场，特斯拉能继续加强在该市场的领导地位。</p>\n<p><b>虽然预计特斯拉营收年复合增长率相当亮眼，但更重要的是，特斯拉EBIT和EBITDA增速有望超出其营收增速，分别达到43.8%和26.7%。</b></p>\n<p>由于特斯拉未来EBIT或EBITDA增长可观，Seekingalpha分析师建议，对于习惯看营收估值倍数（企业价值/营收比率或市销率）的投资者，转用EBITDA或EBIT估值倍数来评估特斯拉股价，或许更加可取。</p>\n<p>Seekingalpha分析师将在后文介绍如何看这两个指标，并给出了估值模型。</p>\n<p><b>理解特斯拉EBIT估值倍数</b></p>\n<p>此处仅选取EBIT估值倍数进行讨论。考虑到特斯拉作为汽车厂商，资本支出利润率相对较高，讨论EBIT估值倍数意义较大。</p>\n<p>下图为特斯拉与汽车、软件公司的估值倍数混合对比：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a99239187db8b139242af901f5ce78\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>下图为特斯拉与软件公司的估值倍数对比：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c265c0afe9f76ecdbcb516f5d86f0ed1\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>先简单介绍一下这两个组别的逻辑。第一组列举了部分汽车厂商。对比纯电动汽车厂商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>的远期估值倍数，特斯拉企业价值/2024财年EBIT的估值倍数为64.7倍，还算合理，并且特斯拉EBIT增速预计更快，利润率也比组内同行高。</p>\n<p>在第二组别中，对比头部新兴软件公司，特斯拉2024日历年的EBIT估值乘数同样显得合理。由于EBIT增长率亮眼，作为软件公司的特斯拉不输同行。<b>Seekingalpha分析师认为，特斯拉可与Palantir或<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>等头部新兴软件公司齐名，尽管特斯拉EBIT利润率低于其同行。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e4d5f21a7e8d14313126bb32dc7d10\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在计算特斯拉的公允价值时，<b>分析师</b>选定EBIT估值倍数中位值60倍，得出的公允价值约为713美元。基于周四739美元的收盘价，特斯拉潜在跌幅为3.6%。</p>\n<p>分析师认为，巨大的EBIT增长是支撑特斯拉估值溢价的关键，且与纯电动车同行或软件同行相比，特斯拉估值溢价仍然合理。</p>\n<p>那么，如果以截至2024财年的预期来衡量特斯拉目前的估值是合理的话，那么在未来几年内，特斯拉股价靠什么因素冲入1000美元大关？</p>\n<p><b>市场势头与增长强劲</b></p>\n<p>下图为Seekingalpha对特斯拉的量化评级：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/299e00f39ef79cfb53d1523d91587bff\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由图可见，除了估值因素，特斯拉在其他各项评级中成绩亮眼，尤其是其增长和盈利能力，均获最高的A+评级。另一方面，特斯拉价值评级仅获F，主要是因为量化系统将特斯拉与汽车厂商进行比较，传统汽车制造商相对较低的估值影响了特斯拉的评级。</p>\n<p>下图为Seekingalpha对特斯拉的股价势头评级：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03806f1116aa76d645162084e6f64066\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>值得注意的是，特斯拉的3个月股价表现评级为A，表明涨势大增，因为多头期待股价升至今年1月的历史最高位。可惜的是，一些投资者没有考虑到当前势头，在转跌为涨的拐点采取了看跌立场。</p>\n<p>虽然分析师认为估值是驱动股价的重要因素（而估值对特斯拉而言非常主观，从华尔街宽松的目标价区间可见），但投资者对增长前景的乐观态度不容忽视，因为这推动了增长势头。就特斯拉而言，多头不仅看到了电动车市场的巨大机会，还考虑了特斯拉在自动驾驶、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>出租车、保险、能源等方面的前景，这大大催生了看涨乐观情绪，导致股价进一步爬升。</p>\n<p><b>不过，正如看跌投资者所说的，需注意的关键风险是特斯拉离实现预期目标似乎还很遥远。如果目标实现不了，估值溢价将难以持续。</b></p>\n<p>另一方面，如上文所说，特斯拉目前估值似乎与其他纯电动车同行并不脱节，看涨者当然可以认为估值合理。对投资者而言，更具挑战性的是考虑特斯拉如何冲入1000美元大关。分析师认为，目前无论是看涨者还是看跌者，在了解特斯拉的市场机会后，仍然无法提供令人信服的基本面依据。</p>\n<p><b>特斯拉股价动态和趋势分析</b></p>\n<p>下图为特斯拉的周K线图：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700f88c4fd796d7d26b1f0c21cf529ae\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>前文强调，尽管市场上负面新闻和唱跌声音不断，但自疫情期间市场触底以来，特斯拉股票回报一直不错。这里不是说2020年为投资者提供的巨大回报，而是特斯拉股价表现中清楚反映出的长期强劲势头。</p>\n<p>2021年2月（第一个低点）和2021年5月（第二个低点）的双重底给当时的股市造成了很大的负面情绪。</p>\n<p>熊市陷阱为强大而精明的市场参与者所用，在适当的时候引诱和套牢看跌的投资者，从负面情绪中获利，并在看跌者认为疲软情绪延续时扭转股价，从而做多。读者可回顾一下2月和5月期间对特斯拉的报道，了解当时市场看跌情绪。5月双重底走势是特斯拉的看涨信号，不幸的是，许多技术分析不善的投资者往往不能及时发现市场重要信号。</p>\n<p><b>那么，特斯拉能否冲入1000美元大关？</b></p>\n<p>从目前股价来看，安全系数很好。由于此前一路获利，分析师表示可以继续持有，毕竟方舟投资将特斯拉2025财年目标价设为3000美元。分析师认为，没有人能预测特斯拉能否冲入1000美元、甚至2000美元大关，也不能预测这何时发生。</p>\n<p><b>尽管如此，在分析了特斯拉目前估值、涨势、价位表现和长期上升趋势后，分析师认为这些要点或将特斯拉引向1000美元大关，而不是回落到500美元。</b></p>\n<p>最后，基于目前估值和股价表现，分析师暂时维持对特斯拉的中性评级。</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n涨势再起，特斯拉股价能否冲上1000美元大关？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 17:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003907><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>总结\n\n特斯拉股价年初走势不佳，后强劲复苏，过去三个月表现跑赢通用汽车和福特汽车。\n预计未来特斯拉EBIT（息税前利润）增长强劲，投资者应使用EBIT估值倍数评估股价。\n分析师列出了特斯拉股价能否闯入1000美元大关的因素。\n\n投资观点\n特斯拉在华尔街的关注度数一数二，33位分析师发表了针对特斯拉股价的观点。可以说，这只个股极具争议：华尔街精英分析师的目标价差异悬殊，从540美元到860美元不等，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003907\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003907","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179887160","content_text":"总结\n\n特斯拉股价年初走势不佳，后强劲复苏，过去三个月表现跑赢通用汽车和福特汽车。\n预计未来特斯拉EBIT（息税前利润）增长强劲，投资者应使用EBIT估值倍数评估股价。\n分析师列出了特斯拉股价能否闯入1000美元大关的因素。\n\n投资观点\n特斯拉在华尔街的关注度数一数二，33位分析师发表了针对特斯拉股价的观点。可以说，这只个股极具争议：华尔街精英分析师的目标价差异悬殊，从540美元到860美元不等，14位分析师予以强烈看涨/看涨评级，12位予以中性评级，7位予以强烈看跌/看跌的评级。\n\n再提一嘴，有名的特斯拉多头，方舟投资CEO及CIO木头姐Cathie Wood，最近重申看好特斯拉，甚至强调没有看到任何特斯拉股价泡沫形成；另一方面，华尔街对特斯拉股价意见不一（从上图的中性评级可以看出）反映了市场的不确定情绪，木头姐认为这有利于特斯拉越过“忧虑之墙”（指金融市场克服一系列负面因素并持续上升的周期性趋势），到2025年股价将攀升至3000美元。\n究竟特斯拉股价能否闯进1000美元大关？本文列出几大要点。\n特斯拉股价近日表现\n下图为特斯拉、福特汽车、通用汽车三个月股价表现对比（截至2021年9月2日）\n\n下图为特斯拉、VLUE、VUG三个月股价表现对比（截至2021年9月2日）\n\n毫无疑问，今年特斯拉明显跑输大盘，截至2021年9月2日的回报率仅为4.83%。然而过去三个月表现好转，回报率达18.6%，大大跑赢福特汽车(F.N)-11%和通用汽车(GM.N)-17.1%的回报率。成长股到价值股的轮换势头已惊人消退，成长股再次成为低价买入者的投资重点。对比过去三个月Vanguard成长股指数ETF(VUG)与iShares安硕MSCI美元价值因素ETF(VLUE)的表现，这一点可见一斑。\n随着成长股和特斯拉股价涨势恢复，投资者是时候思考，特斯拉能否突破拆股后达到的900美元历史高位，冲入1000美元大关。\n关注特斯拉EBIT增长\n下图为特斯拉季度出售碳排放信用额度的营收：\n\n二季度数据打脸特斯拉诋毁者的一贯说辞：特斯拉靠卖“碳”盈利。最近的季报显示，特斯拉季度营收同比增长308.3%至13.6亿美元，业绩亮眼。此外，尽管过去5个季度，特斯拉出售碳排放信用额度的营收最少达3.54亿美元，但随着公司规模不断扩大，特斯拉的基础经营业绩正取得巨大进步。\n\n随着公司运营规模扩大，特斯拉EBIT状况稳步改善，Q2录得32.5亿美元，前12个月EBIT累计增长7.8%。\n因此，投资者需考虑特斯拉EBIT未来将如何增长，从而了解如何正确评估特斯拉，看特斯拉能否冲入1000美元大关。\n特斯拉EBIT未来增速如何？\n下图为华尔街对特斯拉营收的平均共识预期：\n下图为华尔街对特斯拉复合年增长率的预测：\n\n从图中可以看出，即使是华尔街对特斯拉持中性评级的分析师，也预计特斯拉经营业绩继续提升。华尔街预测，特斯拉2025财年将录得营收1204亿美元（方舟投资预测为7000亿美元，华尔街预测值为其17.2%），这意味着年复合增长率达到惊人的24.4%。\n与之相比，通用汽车、丰田和大众到2025财年的营收年复合增长率分别为5.15%、3.14%和4.33%。华尔街自然期待，随着传统汽车制造商争相准备在未来几年大举转向电动汽车市场，特斯拉能继续加强在该市场的领导地位。\n虽然预计特斯拉营收年复合增长率相当亮眼，但更重要的是，特斯拉EBIT和EBITDA增速有望超出其营收增速，分别达到43.8%和26.7%。\n由于特斯拉未来EBIT或EBITDA增长可观，Seekingalpha分析师建议，对于习惯看营收估值倍数（企业价值/营收比率或市销率）的投资者，转用EBITDA或EBIT估值倍数来评估特斯拉股价，或许更加可取。\nSeekingalpha分析师将在后文介绍如何看这两个指标，并给出了估值模型。\n理解特斯拉EBIT估值倍数\n此处仅选取EBIT估值倍数进行讨论。考虑到特斯拉作为汽车厂商，资本支出利润率相对较高，讨论EBIT估值倍数意义较大。\n下图为特斯拉与汽车、软件公司的估值倍数混合对比：\n\n下图为特斯拉与软件公司的估值倍数对比：\n\n先简单介绍一下这两个组别的逻辑。第一组列举了部分汽车厂商。对比纯电动汽车厂商蔚来和比亚迪的远期估值倍数，特斯拉企业价值/2024财年EBIT的估值倍数为64.7倍，还算合理，并且特斯拉EBIT增速预计更快，利润率也比组内同行高。\n在第二组别中，对比头部新兴软件公司，特斯拉2024日历年的EBIT估值乘数同样显得合理。由于EBIT增长率亮眼，作为软件公司的特斯拉不输同行。Seekingalpha分析师认为，特斯拉可与Palantir或Zoom等头部新兴软件公司齐名，尽管特斯拉EBIT利润率低于其同行。\n\n在计算特斯拉的公允价值时，分析师选定EBIT估值倍数中位值60倍，得出的公允价值约为713美元。基于周四739美元的收盘价，特斯拉潜在跌幅为3.6%。\n分析师认为，巨大的EBIT增长是支撑特斯拉估值溢价的关键，且与纯电动车同行或软件同行相比，特斯拉估值溢价仍然合理。\n那么，如果以截至2024财年的预期来衡量特斯拉目前的估值是合理的话，那么在未来几年内，特斯拉股价靠什么因素冲入1000美元大关？\n市场势头与增长强劲\n下图为Seekingalpha对特斯拉的量化评级：\n\n由图可见，除了估值因素，特斯拉在其他各项评级中成绩亮眼，尤其是其增长和盈利能力，均获最高的A+评级。另一方面，特斯拉价值评级仅获F，主要是因为量化系统将特斯拉与汽车厂商进行比较，传统汽车制造商相对较低的估值影响了特斯拉的评级。\n下图为Seekingalpha对特斯拉的股价势头评级：\n\n值得注意的是，特斯拉的3个月股价表现评级为A，表明涨势大增，因为多头期待股价升至今年1月的历史最高位。可惜的是，一些投资者没有考虑到当前势头，在转跌为涨的拐点采取了看跌立场。\n虽然分析师认为估值是驱动股价的重要因素（而估值对特斯拉而言非常主观，从华尔街宽松的目标价区间可见），但投资者对增长前景的乐观态度不容忽视，因为这推动了增长势头。就特斯拉而言，多头不仅看到了电动车市场的巨大机会，还考虑了特斯拉在自动驾驶、机器人出租车、保险、能源等方面的前景，这大大催生了看涨乐观情绪，导致股价进一步爬升。\n不过，正如看跌投资者所说的，需注意的关键风险是特斯拉离实现预期目标似乎还很遥远。如果目标实现不了，估值溢价将难以持续。\n另一方面，如上文所说，特斯拉目前估值似乎与其他纯电动车同行并不脱节，看涨者当然可以认为估值合理。对投资者而言，更具挑战性的是考虑特斯拉如何冲入1000美元大关。分析师认为，目前无论是看涨者还是看跌者，在了解特斯拉的市场机会后，仍然无法提供令人信服的基本面依据。\n特斯拉股价动态和趋势分析\n下图为特斯拉的周K线图：\n\n前文强调，尽管市场上负面新闻和唱跌声音不断，但自疫情期间市场触底以来，特斯拉股票回报一直不错。这里不是说2020年为投资者提供的巨大回报，而是特斯拉股价表现中清楚反映出的长期强劲势头。\n2021年2月（第一个低点）和2021年5月（第二个低点）的双重底给当时的股市造成了很大的负面情绪。\n熊市陷阱为强大而精明的市场参与者所用，在适当的时候引诱和套牢看跌的投资者，从负面情绪中获利，并在看跌者认为疲软情绪延续时扭转股价，从而做多。读者可回顾一下2月和5月期间对特斯拉的报道，了解当时市场看跌情绪。5月双重底走势是特斯拉的看涨信号，不幸的是，许多技术分析不善的投资者往往不能及时发现市场重要信号。\n那么，特斯拉能否冲入1000美元大关？\n从目前股价来看，安全系数很好。由于此前一路获利，分析师表示可以继续持有，毕竟方舟投资将特斯拉2025财年目标价设为3000美元。分析师认为，没有人能预测特斯拉能否冲入1000美元、甚至2000美元大关，也不能预测这何时发生。\n尽管如此，在分析了特斯拉目前估值、涨势、价位表现和长期上升趋势后，分析师认为这些要点或将特斯拉引向1000美元大关，而不是回落到500美元。\n最后，基于目前估值和股价表现，分析师暂时维持对特斯拉的中性评级。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":620855278,"gmtCreate":1669686180995,"gmtModify":1676538223085,"author":{"id":"3454045658283227","authorId":"3454045658283227","name":"喵个猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cc8cd361e47c57dd7bca3d95d08da","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3454045658283227","authorIdStr":"3454045658283227"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ETF","listText":"ETF","text":"ETF","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620855278","repostId":"620936515","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815693859,"gmtCreate":1630672875671,"gmtModify":1676530372260,"author":{"id":"3454045658283227","authorId":"3454045658283227","name":"喵个猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cc8cd361e47c57dd7bca3d95d08da","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3454045658283227","authorIdStr":"3454045658283227"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla","listText":"Tesla","text":"Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815693859","repostId":"1179887160","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335196775293008,"gmtCreate":1722841709452,"gmtModify":1722842411586,"author":{"id":"3454045658283227","authorId":"3454045658283227","name":"喵个猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cc8cd361e47c57dd7bca3d95d08da","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwit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