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自在飞花轻似梦
2020-03-03
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Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of a buffalo; fluctuations in tech stocks in March and April are a buying opportunity.
自在飞花轻似梦
2020-02-25
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自在飞花轻似梦
2020-02-20
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20:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of a buffalo; fluctuations in tech stocks in March and April are a buying opportunity.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2014866596","media":"全景财经","summary":"来源：聪明投资者（ID：Capital-nature）“我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。”“财政政策","content":"<p><html><body><div></div><div></div>Source: Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature)</p><p>\"I have always reminded people not to have the illusion of a buffalo. There will be monetary easing this year, but this year it will not be a buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.\"</p><p>\"Fiscal and monetary policies should also focus on science and technology infrastructure, not just ordinary infrastructure.\"</p><p>\"Although the performance of technology stocks this year will continue throughout the year, there will definitely be fluctuations in the middle.\"</p><p>\"If technology stocks fluctuate in March and April, that would be a buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The above is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, Global Chief Strategist, shared his latest insightful perspectives in a conversation today with Zhang Shengxian, Chief Strategist and Fund Manager of the Quantitative Investment Department at Fullgoal Fund.</p><p>Zhang Shengxian is the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Fullgoal Fund. It manages multiple thematic industry index funds, including Fullgoal CSI Military Industry, Fullgoal State-owned Enterprise Reform, and Fullgoal Intelligent Vehicles.</p><p>In this dialogue and Q&A session, Zhang Yidong shared his views on technology stocks in 2020, provided his analysis of monetary and fiscal policies, and gave clear answers on which technology industries he is optimistic about.</p><p>Smart investors have compiled some exciting content and are sharing it with you.</p><p>Both Chinese and American tech stocks are quite expensive.</p><p>But Chinese tech stocks have more potential.</p><p>We just talked about the world, but when it comes to China, China is now facing a good opportunity, which is the new protagonist of the global asset shortage and the bull market of China's core assets. This is our annual strategy for 2020, and the name is clear.</p><p>It is now clear that these good tech stocks in the United States are not cheap, but also very expensive. Many people say that our tech stocks are quite expensive, but when they are all too expensive, we should look at their potential, ROE, and future growth potential.</p><p>For growth stocks, especially technology-based growth stocks, don't look at static valuations. If you look at static valuations, you'll never be able to buy them; they're all expensive.</p><p>Fisher is a master of growth stocks. He never views growth stocks in the same way as cyclical stocks. The biggest risk in growth stock valuation is that he is a scammer. He is neither a growth stock nor a technology stock.</p><p>Just like why, after the 2015 crash, people found that many so-called tech stocks performed so badly, falling by as much as 70-80%, and sometimes even 90%. What was the reason? Because after this round of excitement, everyone discovered that it had been proven false, and that it lacked any technological advancements.</p><p>China's technology market is currently in its early stages, because at least for now, you cannot deny that some leading companies in the systems industry, these technology-intensive companies, although their short-term static valuations are high, should not be misled. We should now focus on the economic environment, policy environment, and global capital flows behind these leading companies in the systems industry.</p><p>So what exactly is the underlying economic environment? In China's economic environment, deleveraging has achieved great success. The phase of subtraction has come to an end. Now we need to consider addition and multiplication. As you can see, China's demand for these is quite large, and we have a strong late-mover advantage.</p><p>Although China's demographic dividend is declining, our engineer dividend is still very strong, and our capital investment in science and technology, whether in education, college students, or our annual investment in scientific research, is second only to that of the United States.</p><p>Against the backdrop of the risk of overcapacity, those things that truly align with China's high-quality development and have real demand are precisely those with technological content. And those things with technological content were summarized a couple of years ago, and the structural growth points were summarized in one word: Made in China 2025.</p><p>We must always remember that Made in China 2025 has one main theme, four transformations, five major projects, eight strategies, and ten major areas.</p><p>One main theme is the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, with digital, networked, and intelligent manufacturing as the main theme.</p><p>Made in China 2025 is not just about the big, clumsy manufacturing that people think of; it actually focuses on digital and intelligent manufacturing, encompassing both soft and hard aspects.</p><p>Look at the ten major areas: next-generation information technology, high-end machine tools...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Aerospace, marine engineering, high-tech shipbuilding, advanced orbit, energy-saving new energy, power equipment, new materials, biotechnology, and so on—there really are both hard and soft aspects. From this perspective, we can see our real needs and the most efficient aspects.</p><p>Don't have the illusion of a buffalo.</p><p>This year's bull market is a technology bull market and a structural bull market.</p><p>Returning to the present, everyone is quite worried about China's economy, and in the past two days some people have started to speculate because the LPR was lowered today. I also received a lot of calls wondering if there will be a big easing of monetary policy.</p><p>I've always warned against having the illusion of a buffalo. There will be monetary easing this year, but it won't be a buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Why do I say that? Because our current economic structure, as well as the tertiary industry and service sector, are the main drivers of GDP, and from an employment perspective, the tertiary industry and service sector are also the main drivers of GDP. Therefore, employment is the reason for our monetary easing.</p><p>You can string these clues together for him based on the news from the past two days. What is very rare is a five-month social security reduction or exemption. From February to June, any company that participates in the social security plan can be exempted from paying social security for five months, involving an amount of 650 billion yuan.</p><p>The reason for such a large tax cut is that it is targeted. It is to prevent small and medium-sized enterprises from being under great pressure because they have not started operations but still have to help their employees pay social security, which puts a lot of pressure on them. Now they are trying to stabilize employment.</p><p>Unlike in 2008, 2009, or 2016, when the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance would aggressively invest in infrastructure and promote the real estate market as soon as the economic GDP dropped.</p><p>Another thing is the fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report last night. The central bank also made it very clear that it will not use stimulating the real estate market as an important means to stabilize the economy in the short term. This makes it very clear that our strategic focus is stronger now than before. The most crucial thing is economic restructuring. We need to stabilize the economy, but at the same time, we need long-term stability.</p><p>Therefore, even this year, the focus of fiscal and monetary policies should be on science and technology infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure. Ordinary infrastructure is just a safety net to prevent the economy from landing hard. The real and larger infrastructure projects include the serious shortage of public healthcare equipment and facilities brought about by this epidemic.</p><p>Investment in things like 5G and semiconductors will also increase. This is what is known as science and technology infrastructure. It is conducive to stabilizing growth in the short term, as well as employment, especially for college graduates. At the same time, it can help us increase the efficiency of economic growth in the future, especially the momentum of economic growth. This is one level.</p><p>Secondly, from a funding perspective, which places can have the money to support economic transformation? Especially towards high efficiency and high quality?</p><p>My answer is a multi-tiered capital market.</p><p>This time, don't expect to expand the balance sheet, because the three domestic balance sheets are not doing well right now, and we can no longer tolerate increased leverage.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the relaxation period that can be compared this time is not 2016, 2008, or 2009, but the first four months of 2019. In other words, after solving short-term economic difficulties, we still need to return to doing the right things in the long term.</p><p>I tend to say that from the perspective of capital flow, whether in the short or long term, the most successful industries are still those with high technological content, especially manufacturing industries with high technological content, especially things like the so-called Made in China 2025.</p><p>Advanced manufacturing and technology industries will expand in both directions.</p><p>The multi-tiered capital market, especially the stock market, is the one that can continuously bring growth funds.</p><p>This year, the technology sector will expand in both directions, focusing on advanced manufacturing. On the one hand, refinancing is more convenient, and some off-exchange industrial capital will enter the stock market through the primary market and the primary and secondary markets, which will result in a very large increase in funds.</p><p>In other words, the capital market has transformed from a tool into an effective channel for allocating idle domestic funds and resources.</p><p>As long as there is a profit-making effect,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>That's how the money came in.</p><p>This is a very positive two-way expansion, and the direction is most likely in line with national strategic thinking. It's a strategic mistake to expect good things to be cheap again. It's like last year, when everyone kept thinking about buying Moutai if it was cheaper, but it just wasn't cheap.</p><p>If we look at the valuation of technology stocks this year based on the valuations of 2018 and 2019, we will make the same mistake as last year when we always used the valuation of the previous two years to judge Moutai.</p><p>This year, whether considering overseas logic or the short-term stabilization of growth in China and the long-term improvement of China's economic efficiency, these fundamental logic, coupled with the liquidity logic mentioned earlier, will make the sustainability of the market trend expected for several years. It's not just this year; it could be similar to what the United States has seen since 2016.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report was released a couple of days ago, summarizing that over the past two years, the five major tech giants have basically led the US index. Although China is not so concentrated now, we are leading the index with the best industry leaders in advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Technology stocks will rally throughout the year.</p><p>But there will definitely be twists and turns along the</p><p>Finally, one more thing to add: although the performance of technology stocks this year will continue throughout the year, there will definitely be fluctuations in the middle. There are two reasons for the setbacks:</p><p>The first aspect is the fluctuation of risk-free rate of return. Since the Spring Festival, the risk-free rate of return has returned from around 3% to the current 2.8% (measured by the 10-year Treasury Bond yield), but the decline is still slow. Looking at the one-year and three-year Treasury Bond yields, the short-term yields are even more exaggerated.</p><p>This is indeed a good time for technology and growth stocks, but we need to pay attention to the twists and turns ahead.</p><p>For example, if work fully resumes in March and April, monetary policy will need to be coordinated with fiscal policy, which will increase the real economy's demand for funds, which could lead to a rise in market interest rates. However, the upward momentum will be weak, and March and April will not pose a major risk or correction to the market.</p><p>The risk-free rate of return is trending downwards and may enter a low level of fluctuation in March and April, instead of continuing to fall as it is now.</p><p>If tech stocks fluctuate in March or April, it would be a buying opportunity. What should you buy? We need to consider the fundamentals, which are the core of our valuation of technology stocks. We must understand that static valuation is not the core of our buying and selling of technology stocks; the fundamentals are. Good things are rare and valuable.</p><p>How do you measure good things? January is called \"the strong wind knows the strong grass.\" With such poor first-quarter data, whose first-quarter report is still passable? What does it mean to make do? In other words, the impact of February is felt at home, but who can increase volume and price in March from a fundamental perspective, and who still has the momentum to raise prices? Big companies can raise prices and increase their production.</p><p>Therefore, in April, whose performance meets or exceeds expectations is, to put it bluntly, the leading company that can perform throughout the year, or even for the next few years.</p><p>Because the first quarter of this year was a good military parade during the crisis mode, the strength of competitiveness became clear at a glance. These highly competitive leading companies will continue to exist for several years and will accompany China's high-quality economic development for a considerable period.</p><p>In summary, monetary easing is not permanent because it is constrained by external circumstances, asset bubbles, and inflation. Easing monetary policy is only temporary, but with the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure, relatively more funds will be invested in a relatively optimized but relatively small structure. Structure is king; that's the core.</p><p>Five Directions of Technology Stock Bull Market</p><p>Finally, I would like to mention that the bull market in technology stocks may continue for two or three years, rather than a water bubble, but rather an efficiency and structural bull market brought about by the improvement of the economic structure.</p><p>My own opinion is based on these five directions. Of course, the top-performing stocks are selected by high-quality fund companies and fund managers such as Fullgoal Fund, but selecting the five directions from top to bottom is basically in line with Made in China 2025.</p><p>The first is information technology, represented by 5G semiconductors. The so-called next-generation information technologies, represented by 5G cloud, semiconductors, the Internet, and the Internet of Things, are TMT.</p><p>The second is high-end manufacturing, which is represented by new energy vehicles.</p><p>The third is energy conservation, new energy, and new materials. Including clean energy, whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">solar energy</a>Nuclear energy, as well as some energy-saving equipment, including related new materials, can be combined with the application of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In addition, as I just mentioned, monetary easing is not sustainable because, in addition to internal inflation this year, we must also be careful that our oil is in the hands of others. American oil is already exported, and rising oil prices are beneficial to the United States but detrimental to China and Europe.</p><p>China has always been proactive, and its so-called resolve and strategic vision as a major power refer to energy conservation and new energy sources, which also involve technological content. For example, China has a relative advantage in hydrogen energy, solar energy, and clean energy recently; this is the third one.</p><p>The fourth is inclined towards some precision manufacturing, especially the military industry. Precision manufacturing and TMT are still related. Whether it's high-end machine tools, artificial intelligence equipment, drones, large aircraft, etc., these are all precision manufacturing.</p><p>The fifth direction is biomedicine and biotechnology.</p><p>These five directions, the first four directions, may be slightly better in the next stage, while biotechnology may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, because biotechnology was already a little less confident in the first quarter due to the epidemic. The next step is to make great efforts to make up for the shortcomings and invest in public healthcare. Therefore, biotechnology and biomedical opportunities may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter.</p><p>Overall, for high-quality companies in these five sectors, adjustments are buying points; don't be afraid of market fluctuations. In summary, good assets are not afraid of falling; they are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of not falling. This is a characteristic of core assets that I have always talked about.</p><p>Whether we've subtracted from the core assets of traditional industries over the past three years or multiplied and added them in the coming years, the core assets of advanced manufacturing and technology-based industries remain unchanged: good things. Especially when it comes to good stocks with clear fundamentals, you need to stay focused and dare to allocate to them during market fluctuations.</p><p>Q&A session?</p><p>Q: How do you view January's social financing?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">and credit</a>Far exceeding expectations? Is it good for finance and real estate or for technology stocks?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: That's the short-term and long-term aspects, right? From the perspective of social financing, preventing the economy from suffering a hard landing is relatively more positive for value stocks.</p><p>In January of this year, from a growth perspective, local government special bonds accounted for the majority of social financing. These are all efforts to stabilize growth because they are looking for core assets in technology stocks. I do not believe that the technology market in the next two or three years will be simply equivalent to the buffalo, mad bull, and speculative market of 2013-2015. Instead, it tends to be similar to the best ones in the United States since the 1980s, with only a few.</p><p>I estimate that many people would rather buy value stocks than technology stocks this year. Buying tech stocks is like buying \"tech stocks\" indiscriminately, especially for those who have been chasing high prices and buying all the tech stocks these past two days. They may be constantly being slapped on both sides this year, leaving them dizzy and disoriented.</p><p>If you lack research capabilities yourself, researching technology stocks doesn't involve static valuations, but rather considers them from the perspective of an industry. If you're not an industry expert, it's difficult to grasp this overall valuation.</p><p>Technology stocks with high static valuations, even with a high PE ratio, are not cheap. However, discounting the forward cash flow of leading companies is a real challenge, requiring a diamond in the roof.</p><p>Social financing acts as a safety net, preventing the Chinese economy from experiencing a hard landing. If it doesn't, leading companies in cyclical industries like consumer goods or even real estate won't experience unexpected profit cliffs, and their current valuations are relatively cheap, or at least reasonably undervalued. Even the valuation ratios of some leading companies in traditional industries can be compared to static or TTM valuations because their profits are highly stable and predictable. As long as the Chinese economy is not experiencing a systemic slowdown, they can act as a stabilizer and compare their cost-effectiveness with bonds.</p><p>From today's perspective, whether it's a leading company in the real estate industry that can't die, or a company in the financial or traditional industries with a return exceeding 5%, it's more cost-effective for ordinary investors to make a little money. It's safer for ordinary investors to buy value stocks this year because risk-free returns are low. Leading companies in traditional industries are better off than bonds and wealth management products.</p><p>Social financing has little impact on technology stocks. The rise in technology stocks is largely due to two factors: one is the unchanged interest rate and the continuous decline in yields; The second part is related to some regulatory policies, which mean that if there is too much flour, add water, and if there is too much water, add flour. As long as there is a continuous profit-making effect in this market, there will be a continuous stream of incremental money coming in, and the structural market will continue.</p><p>Finally, in summary, my view on this year's market is that the index is in a balanced market, neither a bull nor a bear market. Don't expect a single rise to lead to a major bull market. In a so-called bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index will rise by at least 20% in a year. The Shanghai Composite Index cannot see this because the economy is just stabilizing at a bottom, not a hard landing.</p><p><div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of a buffalo; fluctuations in tech stocks in March and April are a buying opportunity.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of a buffalo; fluctuations in tech stocks in March and April are a buying opportunity.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全景财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-02-25 20:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div></div><div></div>Source: Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature)</p><p>\"I have always reminded people not to have the illusion of a buffalo. There will be monetary easing this year, but this year it will not be a buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.\"</p><p>\"Fiscal and monetary policies should also focus on science and technology infrastructure, not just ordinary infrastructure.\"</p><p>\"Although the performance of technology stocks this year will continue throughout the year, there will definitely be fluctuations in the middle.\"</p><p>\"If technology stocks fluctuate in March and April, that would be a buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The above is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, Global Chief Strategist, shared his latest insightful perspectives in a conversation today with Zhang Shengxian, Chief Strategist and Fund Manager of the Quantitative Investment Department at Fullgoal Fund.</p><p>Zhang Shengxian is the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Fullgoal Fund. It manages multiple thematic industry index funds, including Fullgoal CSI Military Industry, Fullgoal State-owned Enterprise Reform, and Fullgoal Intelligent Vehicles.</p><p>In this dialogue and Q&A session, Zhang Yidong shared his views on technology stocks in 2020, provided his analysis of monetary and fiscal policies, and gave clear answers on which technology industries he is optimistic about.</p><p>Smart investors have compiled some exciting content and are sharing it with you.</p><p>Both Chinese and American tech stocks are quite expensive.</p><p>But Chinese tech stocks have more potential.</p><p>We just talked about the world, but when it comes to China, China is now facing a good opportunity, which is the new protagonist of the global asset shortage and the bull market of China's core assets. This is our annual strategy for 2020, and the name is clear.</p><p>It is now clear that these good tech stocks in the United States are not cheap, but also very expensive. Many people say that our tech stocks are quite expensive, but when they are all too expensive, we should look at their potential, ROE, and future growth potential.</p><p>For growth stocks, especially technology-based growth stocks, don't look at static valuations. If you look at static valuations, you'll never be able to buy them; they're all expensive.</p><p>Fisher is a master of growth stocks. He never views growth stocks in the same way as cyclical stocks. The biggest risk in growth stock valuation is that he is a scammer. He is neither a growth stock nor a technology stock.</p><p>Just like why, after the 2015 crash, people found that many so-called tech stocks performed so badly, falling by as much as 70-80%, and sometimes even 90%. What was the reason? Because after this round of excitement, everyone discovered that it had been proven false, and that it lacked any technological advancements.</p><p>China's technology market is currently in its early stages, because at least for now, you cannot deny that some leading companies in the systems industry, these technology-intensive companies, although their short-term static valuations are high, should not be misled. We should now focus on the economic environment, policy environment, and global capital flows behind these leading companies in the systems industry.</p><p>So what exactly is the underlying economic environment? In China's economic environment, deleveraging has achieved great success. The phase of subtraction has come to an end. Now we need to consider addition and multiplication. As you can see, China's demand for these is quite large, and we have a strong late-mover advantage.</p><p>Although China's demographic dividend is declining, our engineer dividend is still very strong, and our capital investment in science and technology, whether in education, college students, or our annual investment in scientific research, is second only to that of the United States.</p><p>Against the backdrop of the risk of overcapacity, those things that truly align with China's high-quality development and have real demand are precisely those with technological content. And those things with technological content were summarized a couple of years ago, and the structural growth points were summarized in one word: Made in China 2025.</p><p>We must always remember that Made in China 2025 has one main theme, four transformations, five major projects, eight strategies, and ten major areas.</p><p>One main theme is the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, with digital, networked, and intelligent manufacturing as the main theme.</p><p>Made in China 2025 is not just about the big, clumsy manufacturing that people think of; it actually focuses on digital and intelligent manufacturing, encompassing both soft and hard aspects.</p><p>Look at the ten major areas: next-generation information technology, high-end machine tools...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Aerospace, marine engineering, high-tech shipbuilding, advanced orbit, energy-saving new energy, power equipment, new materials, biotechnology, and so on—there really are both hard and soft aspects. From this perspective, we can see our real needs and the most efficient aspects.</p><p>Don't have the illusion of a buffalo.</p><p>This year's bull market is a technology bull market and a structural bull market.</p><p>Returning to the present, everyone is quite worried about China's economy, and in the past two days some people have started to speculate because the LPR was lowered today. I also received a lot of calls wondering if there will be a big easing of monetary policy.</p><p>I've always warned against having the illusion of a buffalo. There will be monetary easing this year, but it won't be a buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Why do I say that? Because our current economic structure, as well as the tertiary industry and service sector, are the main drivers of GDP, and from an employment perspective, the tertiary industry and service sector are also the main drivers of GDP. Therefore, employment is the reason for our monetary easing.</p><p>You can string these clues together for him based on the news from the past two days. What is very rare is a five-month social security reduction or exemption. From February to June, any company that participates in the social security plan can be exempted from paying social security for five months, involving an amount of 650 billion yuan.</p><p>The reason for such a large tax cut is that it is targeted. It is to prevent small and medium-sized enterprises from being under great pressure because they have not started operations but still have to help their employees pay social security, which puts a lot of pressure on them. Now they are trying to stabilize employment.</p><p>Unlike in 2008, 2009, or 2016, when the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance would aggressively invest in infrastructure and promote the real estate market as soon as the economic GDP dropped.</p><p>Another thing is the fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report last night. The central bank also made it very clear that it will not use stimulating the real estate market as an important means to stabilize the economy in the short term. This makes it very clear that our strategic focus is stronger now than before. The most crucial thing is economic restructuring. We need to stabilize the economy, but at the same time, we need long-term stability.</p><p>Therefore, even this year, the focus of fiscal and monetary policies should be on science and technology infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure. Ordinary infrastructure is just a safety net to prevent the economy from landing hard. The real and larger infrastructure projects include the serious shortage of public healthcare equipment and facilities brought about by this epidemic.</p><p>Investment in things like 5G and semiconductors will also increase. This is what is known as science and technology infrastructure. It is conducive to stabilizing growth in the short term, as well as employment, especially for college graduates. At the same time, it can help us increase the efficiency of economic growth in the future, especially the momentum of economic growth. This is one level.</p><p>Secondly, from a funding perspective, which places can have the money to support economic transformation? Especially towards high efficiency and high quality?</p><p>My answer is a multi-tiered capital market.</p><p>This time, don't expect to expand the balance sheet, because the three domestic balance sheets are not doing well right now, and we can no longer tolerate increased leverage.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the relaxation period that can be compared this time is not 2016, 2008, or 2009, but the first four months of 2019. In other words, after solving short-term economic difficulties, we still need to return to doing the right things in the long term.</p><p>I tend to say that from the perspective of capital flow, whether in the short or long term, the most successful industries are still those with high technological content, especially manufacturing industries with high technological content, especially things like the so-called Made in China 2025.</p><p>Advanced manufacturing and technology industries will expand in both directions.</p><p>The multi-tiered capital market, especially the stock market, is the one that can continuously bring growth funds.</p><p>This year, the technology sector will expand in both directions, focusing on advanced manufacturing. On the one hand, refinancing is more convenient, and some off-exchange industrial capital will enter the stock market through the primary market and the primary and secondary markets, which will result in a very large increase in funds.</p><p>In other words, the capital market has transformed from a tool into an effective channel for allocating idle domestic funds and resources.</p><p>As long as there is a profit-making effect,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>That's how the money came in.</p><p>This is a very positive two-way expansion, and the direction is most likely in line with national strategic thinking. It's a strategic mistake to expect good things to be cheap again. It's like last year, when everyone kept thinking about buying Moutai if it was cheaper, but it just wasn't cheap.</p><p>If we look at the valuation of technology stocks this year based on the valuations of 2018 and 2019, we will make the same mistake as last year when we always used the valuation of the previous two years to judge Moutai.</p><p>This year, whether considering overseas logic or the short-term stabilization of growth in China and the long-term improvement of China's economic efficiency, these fundamental logic, coupled with the liquidity logic mentioned earlier, will make the sustainability of the market trend expected for several years. It's not just this year; it could be similar to what the United States has seen since 2016.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report was released a couple of days ago, summarizing that over the past two years, the five major tech giants have basically led the US index. Although China is not so concentrated now, we are leading the index with the best industry leaders in advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Technology stocks will rally throughout the year.</p><p>But there will definitely be twists and turns along the</p><p>Finally, one more thing to add: although the performance of technology stocks this year will continue throughout the year, there will definitely be fluctuations in the middle. There are two reasons for the setbacks:</p><p>The first aspect is the fluctuation of risk-free rate of return. Since the Spring Festival, the risk-free rate of return has returned from around 3% to the current 2.8% (measured by the 10-year Treasury Bond yield), but the decline is still slow. Looking at the one-year and three-year Treasury Bond yields, the short-term yields are even more exaggerated.</p><p>This is indeed a good time for technology and growth stocks, but we need to pay attention to the twists and turns ahead.</p><p>For example, if work fully resumes in March and April, monetary policy will need to be coordinated with fiscal policy, which will increase the real economy's demand for funds, which could lead to a rise in market interest rates. However, the upward momentum will be weak, and March and April will not pose a major risk or correction to the market.</p><p>The risk-free rate of return is trending downwards and may enter a low level of fluctuation in March and April, instead of continuing to fall as it is now.</p><p>If tech stocks fluctuate in March or April, it would be a buying opportunity. What should you buy? We need to consider the fundamentals, which are the core of our valuation of technology stocks. We must understand that static valuation is not the core of our buying and selling of technology stocks; the fundamentals are. Good things are rare and valuable.</p><p>How do you measure good things? January is called \"the strong wind knows the strong grass.\" With such poor first-quarter data, whose first-quarter report is still passable? What does it mean to make do? In other words, the impact of February is felt at home, but who can increase volume and price in March from a fundamental perspective, and who still has the momentum to raise prices? Big companies can raise prices and increase their production.</p><p>Therefore, in April, whose performance meets or exceeds expectations is, to put it bluntly, the leading company that can perform throughout the year, or even for the next few years.</p><p>Because the first quarter of this year was a good military parade during the crisis mode, the strength of competitiveness became clear at a glance. These highly competitive leading companies will continue to exist for several years and will accompany China's high-quality economic development for a considerable period.</p><p>In summary, monetary easing is not permanent because it is constrained by external circumstances, asset bubbles, and inflation. Easing monetary policy is only temporary, but with the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure, relatively more funds will be invested in a relatively optimized but relatively small structure. Structure is king; that's the core.</p><p>Five Directions of Technology Stock Bull Market</p><p>Finally, I would like to mention that the bull market in technology stocks may continue for two or three years, rather than a water bubble, but rather an efficiency and structural bull market brought about by the improvement of the economic structure.</p><p>My own opinion is based on these five directions. Of course, the top-performing stocks are selected by high-quality fund companies and fund managers such as Fullgoal Fund, but selecting the five directions from top to bottom is basically in line with Made in China 2025.</p><p>The first is information technology, represented by 5G semiconductors. The so-called next-generation information technologies, represented by 5G cloud, semiconductors, the Internet, and the Internet of Things, are TMT.</p><p>The second is high-end manufacturing, which is represented by new energy vehicles.</p><p>The third is energy conservation, new energy, and new materials. Including clean energy, whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">solar energy</a>Nuclear energy, as well as some energy-saving equipment, including related new materials, can be combined with the application of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In addition, as I just mentioned, monetary easing is not sustainable because, in addition to internal inflation this year, we must also be careful that our oil is in the hands of others. American oil is already exported, and rising oil prices are beneficial to the United States but detrimental to China and Europe.</p><p>China has always been proactive, and its so-called resolve and strategic vision as a major power refer to energy conservation and new energy sources, which also involve technological content. For example, China has a relative advantage in hydrogen energy, solar energy, and clean energy recently; this is the third one.</p><p>The fourth is inclined towards some precision manufacturing, especially the military industry. Precision manufacturing and TMT are still related. Whether it's high-end machine tools, artificial intelligence equipment, drones, large aircraft, etc., these are all precision manufacturing.</p><p>The fifth direction is biomedicine and biotechnology.</p><p>These five directions, the first four directions, may be slightly better in the next stage, while biotechnology may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, because biotechnology was already a little less confident in the first quarter due to the epidemic. The next step is to make great efforts to make up for the shortcomings and invest in public healthcare. Therefore, biotechnology and biomedical opportunities may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter.</p><p>Overall, for high-quality companies in these five sectors, adjustments are buying points; don't be afraid of market fluctuations. In summary, good assets are not afraid of falling; they are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of not falling. This is a characteristic of core assets that I have always talked about.</p><p>Whether we've subtracted from the core assets of traditional industries over the past three years or multiplied and added them in the coming years, the core assets of advanced manufacturing and technology-based industries remain unchanged: good things. Especially when it comes to good stocks with clear fundamentals, you need to stay focused and dare to allocate to them during market fluctuations.</p><p>Q&A session?</p><p>Q: How do you view January's social financing?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">and credit</a>Far exceeding expectations? Is it good for finance and real estate or for technology stocks?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: That's the short-term and long-term aspects, right? From the perspective of social financing, preventing the economy from suffering a hard landing is relatively more positive for value stocks.</p><p>In January of this year, from a growth perspective, local government special bonds accounted for the majority of social financing. These are all efforts to stabilize growth because they are looking for core assets in technology stocks. I do not believe that the technology market in the next two or three years will be simply equivalent to the buffalo, mad bull, and speculative market of 2013-2015. Instead, it tends to be similar to the best ones in the United States since the 1980s, with only a few.</p><p>I estimate that many people would rather buy value stocks than technology stocks this year. Buying tech stocks is like buying \"tech stocks\" indiscriminately, especially for those who have been chasing high prices and buying all the tech stocks these past two days. They may be constantly being slapped on both sides this year, leaving them dizzy and disoriented.</p><p>If you lack research capabilities yourself, researching technology stocks doesn't involve static valuations, but rather considers them from the perspective of an industry. If you're not an industry expert, it's difficult to grasp this overall valuation.</p><p>Technology stocks with high static valuations, even with a high PE ratio, are not cheap. However, discounting the forward cash flow of leading companies is a real challenge, requiring a diamond in the roof.</p><p>Social financing acts as a safety net, preventing the Chinese economy from experiencing a hard landing. If it doesn't, leading companies in cyclical industries like consumer goods or even real estate won't experience unexpected profit cliffs, and their current valuations are relatively cheap, or at least reasonably undervalued. Even the valuation ratios of some leading companies in traditional industries can be compared to static or TTM valuations because their profits are highly stable and predictable. As long as the Chinese economy is not experiencing a systemic slowdown, they can act as a stabilizer and compare their cost-effectiveness with bonds.</p><p>From today's perspective, whether it's a leading company in the real estate industry that can't die, or a company in the financial or traditional industries with a return exceeding 5%, it's more cost-effective for ordinary investors to make a little money. It's safer for ordinary investors to buy value stocks this year because risk-free returns are low. Leading companies in traditional industries are better off than bonds and wealth management products.</p><p>Social financing has little impact on technology stocks. The rise in technology stocks is largely due to two factors: one is the unchanged interest rate and the continuous decline in yields; The second part is related to some regulatory policies, which mean that if there is too much flour, add water, and if there is too much water, add flour. As long as there is a continuous profit-making effect in this market, there will be a continuous stream of incremental money coming in, and the structural market will continue.</p><p>Finally, in summary, my view on this year's market is that the index is in a balanced market, neither a bull nor a bear market. Don't expect a single rise to lead to a major bull market. In a so-called bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index will rise by at least 20% in a year. The Shanghai Composite Index cannot see this because the economy is just stabilizing at a bottom, not a hard landing.</p><p><div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6176407506_170247fd201900m6va.html\">全景财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6176407506_170247fd201900m6va.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2014866596","content_text":"来源：聪明投资者（ID：Capital-nature）“我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。”“财政政策，货币政策着力的一个落脚点也应该是科技基建，不是普通的那种基建。”“今年科技股的行情虽然是贯穿全年，但在中间一定会有波折。”“三四月份如果科技股有波动，那会是个买点。”以上，是兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东，今天在和富国基金量化投资部首席策略分析师、基金经理张圣贤的一场对话中，给出的最新精彩观点。张圣贤是富国基金量化投资部首席策略分析师、基金经理。管理包括富国中证军工、富国国企改革、富国智能汽车等在内的多只主题行业指数基金。在本次对话和问答中，张忆东分享了他对于2020年科技股的看法，对货币财政政策也给出了他的分析，对于看好哪些科技类行业，也给出了明确的答案。聪明投资者整理了精彩内容，分享给大家。中美科技股都挺贵但中国的科技股更有后劲刚才讲的是全球，落实到中国，中国现在面临着一个好的机会，就是全球资产荒和中国核心资产牛市的新主角，就是我们2020年的年度策略，名字就旗帜鲜明。现在很明显，美国的这种好的科技股不便宜，也很贵的。很多人讲我们的科技股也挺贵的，但是都偏贵的情况下看后劲，看ROE，看你未来的增长空间。成长股，特别是科技型的成长股，静态估值是不要看的，你要看静态估值永远下不了手，都是贵的。费雪是个成长股的大师，从来不会按照周期股的这种估值方式来看成长股，成长股估值最大的风险，在于他是一个骗子，他不是成长股，他不是科技股。就像为什么2015年崩盘之后，大家发现很多所谓的科技股后来好惨，跌了甚至百分之七八十，甚至有时候还跌了90%的，原因是什么？因为这一轮亢奋之后，大家发现说它被证伪了，他没有科技性的。中国目前科技行情刚刚是方兴未艾，因为至少目前你无法证伪，系统行业的一些龙头、这些有科技含量的公司，虽然他短期静态估值贵，千万不要被迷惑，我们现在要将重点是聚焦于这些系统行业的龙头背后的经济环境、政策环境以及全球的这种资金的流动。那什么叫做背后的经济环境？中国的经济环境，去杠杆已经取得了很大的一个成就，做减法的阶段已经告一段落，现在要考虑的是做加法乘法的事儿，而这些你可以看到中国的需求还是蛮大的，而且我们后发优势还是很强的。虽然中国人口红利在衰竭，但是我们工程师红利还是很强的，而且我们的资本对于科技的投入，无论是从教育、大学生这些，还是我们每年投入到科研方面的资金是仅次于美国的。在动辄就有可能产能过剩的背景下，真正的符合中国高质量发展的，有实实在在需求的恰恰是那些有科技含量的东西，而那些有科技含量的东西，前两年已经总结了，结构的增长点他总结一个词叫做中国制造2025。我们还是要牢牢记住，中国制造2025一条主线、四个转变、五大工程、八项战略，十大领域。一条主线就是以信息技术和制造业技术深度融合，以数字化、网络化、智能化的制造为主线，这是一条主线。中国的制造2025不只是大家想的傻大笨粗的制造，他其实是数字化、智能化制造为主线，有软有硬的、你再看十大领域，什么新一代信息技术、什么高端机床机器人、航空航天、海洋工程、高技术船舶、先进的轨道、节能新能源、电力设备、新材料、生物科技等等，真的有硬的有软的。从这个角度也就看到了我们实实在在的需求，最有效率的地方。不要有水牛的幻觉今年的牛市是科技牛、结构牛回到现在，大家都比较担心中国的经济，而且这两天有人开始yy，因为今天LPR降了，我也接了不少电话，觉得说会不会大放水的了。我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。为什么这么讲？因为我们现在的经济结构以及第三产业和服务业是推动GDP主要的力量了，而且从就业的角度来说也是第三产业服务业，所以就业才是我们放水的原因。这两天的新闻，你可以把这些线索给他串一串。很罕见的是减免社保5个月，从2月份到6月份，只要你参与社保计划的企业就可以5个月免交，涉及的金额6500亿。为什么有这么大的一个减税的力度，就是有针对性的，为了防止的那种中小企业的压力大，没有开工，但是还要继续的去帮助员工缴社保，压力就很大，现在他就为了稳就业。不像2008年、2009年或者2016年，只要经济GDP一下来，发改委，财政部就猛搞基建，大放房地产。再有一个事，就是昨天晚上四季度的货币政策执行报告，央行也很明确，不把刺激房地产作为短期稳定经济的重要手段，这就已经很明确了，我们现在战略定力比以前要强了，最关键还是经济结构调整，我们既要经济能稳住，但同时又要有长治久安。所以就算是今年，财政政策，货币政策着力的一个落脚点也应该是科技基建，不是普通的那种基建，普通的基建只是保底托底，不让经济硬着陆，而真正的更大力度的基建，也包括这次疫情带来的公共医疗的设备设施严重不足。还有包括5G、半导体这些的投入都会加大的，这就是所谓科技基建，既利于短期稳增长，又利于就业，特别是大学生就业，同时又能够对我们未来增经济增长的效率，特别是经济增长后劲是有帮助的。这是一个层面。第二，从资金的层面，哪些地方能够有钱可以去支持经济的转型？特别是向高效率、高质量的方向发展？我的答案是多层次资本市场。这一次不要指望说扩张资产负债表，因为现在国内的三张表都不太好，不能够再纵容加杠杆。从政策的角度来说，这一次能够类比的放松时间不是2016年、2008年、2009年，而是2019年的前4个月。也就是说解决经济短期的困难之后，还是要回到做长期正确的事。我倾向于说从资金的流向来看，无论是短期还是长期，最胜利的依然是有科技含量的，特别是有科技含量的制造业，特别是所谓的中国制造2025那一类的东西。先进制造业、科技行业会是双向扩容而能够持续带来增长资金的一定是多层次资本市场，特别是股市。今年围绕着先进制造业，科技行业会是双向扩容。一方面再融资更加便利化，会有一些场外的产业资本透过一级市场和一级半市场进入到股市来，这个增长资金非常大的。也就相当于说，资本市场从一个抓手，变成一个有效的配置国内闲散资金、配置资源的一个通道。只要有赚钱效应，老百姓的钱也就进来了。这就是一个很良性的双向扩容，而且方向大概率是按照国家战略思考的方向。你指望好东西回到很便宜，那有点犯战略错误，就好比去年，大家老是想茅台便宜一点再买便宜点再买，它就是不便宜。如果大家再按照2018、2019年的估值来看今年科技股的估值，也会犯类似于去年老是用前两年的估值看茅台一样的错误。今年无论是从海外的逻辑，还是说中国国内短期稳增长以及长期中国经济效益的提升，这些基本面的逻辑，再叠加刚才提到的资金面的逻辑，都会使得行情的持续性数年有望。不只是今年一年，有可能类似于美国从2016年到现在。高盛前两天刚出了一个报告，总结了这两年基本上就是5大科技巨头带着美国指数走的。中国虽然现在不是那么集中，但我们恰恰是以先进制造业里面最优秀的行业龙头带着指数走。科技股行情将贯穿全年但中间一定会有波折最后再补充一下，今年科技股的行情虽然是贯穿全年，但在中间一定会有波折。波折的原因有两个方面：第1个方面是无风险收益率的波动。从春节到现在，无风险收益率一路从3%左右回到了现在的2.8%（以10年期国债收益率来衡量），这还是降的慢。以一年期、三年期的国债收益率来看，短端更加夸张。这个时候的确是科技股、成长股好日子，但是我们要关注后面的波折。打个比方，三四月份如果全面复工，货币政策要跟财政政策相配套，实体经济对资金的使用需求就增强增多，增多了以后对于市场利率就有可能抬升。但是抬升的力度会很弱，三四月份不会构成市场的大风险，大调整。无风险收益率趋势性的下行，到三四月份可能会进入到低位波动，而不是像现在一路向下打。三四月份如果科技股有波动，那会是个买点，买什么？要根据基本面，这个基本面才是我们买科技股估值（的核心），一定要知道静态估值不是我们买卖科技股的核心，基本面才是。好东西，物为稀为贵。用什么来衡量好东西？1月份叫疾风知劲草，在一季度数据这样糟糕的情况下，谁的一季报还凑合？什么叫凑合？也就是2月份受的影响在家都承受，但是谁能够在3月份从基本面上面量价提升，还有涨价的动能嘛，牛的公司就能涨价，并且把自己的产量提高。所以4月份，谁的业绩能够符合预期或者超预期的，说白了这就是能够贯穿全年的龙头，甚至是未来数年的龙头。因为今年一季度危机模式下是一个很好的阅兵式，这个时候竞争力的强弱就一目了然了。竞争力强的这些龙头公司，它仍然会贯穿数年，会较长时间伴随着中国经济高质量发展。总结一下，放水不是永远，因为它受到外部形势、资产泡沫、通胀的制约。放水，水牛只是短暂的，但是经济结构的优化、调整，相对多的资金反而会投入到相对优化的但是又相对少的结构中去。结构为王，这才是核心。科技股牛市的五个方向最后说一下，科技股牛市未来可能有个两三年的延续性，而不是水牛，是经济结构改善所带来的效率牛、结构牛。我自己的看法是这样5个方向，当然，里边的牛股是由富国基金这些优质的基金公司、基金经理来选的，但是自上而下选5个方向基本上就是跟中国制造2025贴切的。第1个，5G半导体为代表的信息技术。所谓的5G云、半导体、互联网、物联网为代表的新一代信息技术，就是TMT。第2个就是高端制造，高端制造又是以新能源车为代表。第3个是节能新能源，新材料。包括清洁能源，无论是太阳能，核能，还是一些节能的设备，包括与此相关的新材料，它和新能源车的应用是可以结合的。另外，我刚才提到了放水不持续，因为今年除了内部有通胀之外，还要小心我们的油掌握在别人手中。而老美石油已经是出口了，油价的上涨有利于美国，不利于中国和欧洲。中国向来是未雨绸缪，所谓的大国定力和战略眼光就是节能新能源，这个也是有技术含量的。比如说最近的氢能、太阳能、清洁能源这些，中国也有相对优势，这是第3个。第4个倾向于一些精密制造，特别是军工。精密制造和TMT还是相联系的，无论是一些高端的机床，还是人工智能设备，无人机、大飞机等等，这些都是精密制造。第5个方向，生物医药，生物科技。这5个方向，前4个方向，下个阶段可能会略好，而生物科技下半年可能会比二季度要好一些，因为一季度由于疫情的原因，生物科技已经有点不太自信了，下一步就要围绕着公共医疗进行大力度的补短板、投入。所以下半年生物科技、生物医疗机会可能会比二季度要好一点。总体来说这5个方向里面的优质公司，调整就是买入点，市场的波动不要怕。总结起来就是好东西就不怕跌，跌不怕，怕不跌，这我一直讲的核心资产的一个特征。无论是过去三年来对传统行业的核心资产做减法，还是说未来几年的做乘法和加法，这种先进制造业、科技型行业的核心资产依然不变的是好东西。特别是围绕着基本面明确的这种好东西，要咬定青山，在市场波动的时候要敢于去配置。问答环节？问：如何看待一月社融和信贷大超预期？是利好金融地产还是利好科技股？张忆东：这就是短期和长期了吧，从社融的角度来说，让经济不至于有一个失足硬着陆的风险，相对来说，对于价值股是更正面的。今年1月份的社融，从增长的角度，地方专项债的是个大头，这些都是属于稳增长的力度，因为是找科技股里边的核心资产，我并不认为未来两三年的科技行情简单等同于13~15年的什么水牛、疯牛、乱炒的那一个，而是倾向于是一个类似于美国80年代以后一批最优秀的这种，只有少数的。我估计今年很多人买科技股还不如买价值股的。买科技股就是自己乱买“科技股”，特别是这两天追高买所有科技股的人，有可能在今年不断的两边挨巴掌，被抽的晕头转向。如果你自己没有研究能力，科技股的研究不是按照静态估值，而是从一个产业的角度来思考，你如果不是一个产业专家，很难把握住这种整体估值。静态估值在高位，甚至抱着PE也不便宜的这种科技股，但是龙头公司的远期现金流折现真的是个瓷器活，要有金刚钻的。社融它是个托底的作用，它使得中国经济不至于硬着陆，而一旦不是硬着陆，无论是消费，甚至是地产那种周期行业的龙头公司，他们的盈利就不会产生了超预期的断崖，而现在估值又相对便宜，或者至少是合理偏低估的。甚至有一些传统行业的龙头公司的估值比，他们这些是完全可以看静态估值、TTM估值的，因为他们盈利的稳定性、可预测性强，只要中国经济不是一个系统性的失速，他们起到一个稳定器的作用，就可以跟债券比较看性价比。从现在的角度来说，无论是地产里面死不了的龙头公司，金融行业、传统行业里面的收益率超过5%的，对于普通投资者赚点小钱性价比更好。普通投资者今年买价值股更稳妥，因为无风险收益率在低位，那些传统行业的龙头公司，它比债券强，比你买理财产品要强。社融这一块跟科技股影响不大。因为科技股的上涨更多由两块因素导致的，一块就是资金利率不变，收益率的不断的下行；第2块是和一些监管政策，也就是面多了加水，水多了加面，只要这个行情里面不断有赚钱效应，就会源源不断的有一些增量的钱进来，结构性行情会持续。最后上一个总结，我对今年的行情看法，指数是平衡市，不是牛市也不是熊市，不要指望着一涨就是大牛市，所谓的牛市的上证综指一年至少涨幅超过20%，上证综指看不到，因为经济的只是一个底部企稳，不是硬着陆。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.6,"03086":0.6,"TTTN":0.6,"QNETCN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980484639,"gmtCreate":1582595418421,"gmtModify":1705428876786,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457235060590479","idStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/980484639","repostId":"1194164958","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980917955,"gmtCreate":1582160433677,"gmtModify":1705427969000,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457235060590479","idStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/980917955","repostId":"1163103822","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":983148601,"gmtCreate":1583195946503,"gmtModify":1705289730033,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457235060590479","authorIdStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/983148601","repostId":"2014866596","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2014866596","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1582634241,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2014866596?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-02-25 20:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of a buffalo; fluctuations in tech stocks in March and April are a buying opportunity.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2014866596","media":"全景财经","summary":"来源：聪明投资者（ID：Capital-nature）“我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。”“财政政策","content":"<p><html><body><div></div><div></div>Source: Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature)</p><p>\"I have always reminded people not to have the illusion of a buffalo. There will be monetary easing this year, but this year it will not be a buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.\"</p><p>\"Fiscal and monetary policies should also focus on science and technology infrastructure, not just ordinary infrastructure.\"</p><p>\"Although the performance of technology stocks this year will continue throughout the year, there will definitely be fluctuations in the middle.\"</p><p>\"If technology stocks fluctuate in March and April, that would be a buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The above is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, Global Chief Strategist, shared his latest insightful perspectives in a conversation today with Zhang Shengxian, Chief Strategist and Fund Manager of the Quantitative Investment Department at Fullgoal Fund.</p><p>Zhang Shengxian is the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Fullgoal Fund. It manages multiple thematic industry index funds, including Fullgoal CSI Military Industry, Fullgoal State-owned Enterprise Reform, and Fullgoal Intelligent Vehicles.</p><p>In this dialogue and Q&A session, Zhang Yidong shared his views on technology stocks in 2020, provided his analysis of monetary and fiscal policies, and gave clear answers on which technology industries he is optimistic about.</p><p>Smart investors have compiled some exciting content and are sharing it with you.</p><p>Both Chinese and American tech stocks are quite expensive.</p><p>But Chinese tech stocks have more potential.</p><p>We just talked about the world, but when it comes to China, China is now facing a good opportunity, which is the new protagonist of the global asset shortage and the bull market of China's core assets. This is our annual strategy for 2020, and the name is clear.</p><p>It is now clear that these good tech stocks in the United States are not cheap, but also very expensive. Many people say that our tech stocks are quite expensive, but when they are all too expensive, we should look at their potential, ROE, and future growth potential.</p><p>For growth stocks, especially technology-based growth stocks, don't look at static valuations. If you look at static valuations, you'll never be able to buy them; they're all expensive.</p><p>Fisher is a master of growth stocks. He never views growth stocks in the same way as cyclical stocks. The biggest risk in growth stock valuation is that he is a scammer. He is neither a growth stock nor a technology stock.</p><p>Just like why, after the 2015 crash, people found that many so-called tech stocks performed so badly, falling by as much as 70-80%, and sometimes even 90%. What was the reason? Because after this round of excitement, everyone discovered that it had been proven false, and that it lacked any technological advancements.</p><p>China's technology market is currently in its early stages, because at least for now, you cannot deny that some leading companies in the systems industry, these technology-intensive companies, although their short-term static valuations are high, should not be misled. We should now focus on the economic environment, policy environment, and global capital flows behind these leading companies in the systems industry.</p><p>So what exactly is the underlying economic environment? In China's economic environment, deleveraging has achieved great success. The phase of subtraction has come to an end. Now we need to consider addition and multiplication. As you can see, China's demand for these is quite large, and we have a strong late-mover advantage.</p><p>Although China's demographic dividend is declining, our engineer dividend is still very strong, and our capital investment in science and technology, whether in education, college students, or our annual investment in scientific research, is second only to that of the United States.</p><p>Against the backdrop of the risk of overcapacity, those things that truly align with China's high-quality development and have real demand are precisely those with technological content. And those things with technological content were summarized a couple of years ago, and the structural growth points were summarized in one word: Made in China 2025.</p><p>We must always remember that Made in China 2025 has one main theme, four transformations, five major projects, eight strategies, and ten major areas.</p><p>One main theme is the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, with digital, networked, and intelligent manufacturing as the main theme.</p><p>Made in China 2025 is not just about the big, clumsy manufacturing that people think of; it actually focuses on digital and intelligent manufacturing, encompassing both soft and hard aspects.</p><p>Look at the ten major areas: next-generation information technology, high-end machine tools...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Aerospace, marine engineering, high-tech shipbuilding, advanced orbit, energy-saving new energy, power equipment, new materials, biotechnology, and so on—there really are both hard and soft aspects. From this perspective, we can see our real needs and the most efficient aspects.</p><p>Don't have the illusion of a buffalo.</p><p>This year's bull market is a technology bull market and a structural bull market.</p><p>Returning to the present, everyone is quite worried about China's economy, and in the past two days some people have started to speculate because the LPR was lowered today. I also received a lot of calls wondering if there will be a big easing of monetary policy.</p><p>I've always warned against having the illusion of a buffalo. There will be monetary easing this year, but it won't be a buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Why do I say that? Because our current economic structure, as well as the tertiary industry and service sector, are the main drivers of GDP, and from an employment perspective, the tertiary industry and service sector are also the main drivers of GDP. Therefore, employment is the reason for our monetary easing.</p><p>You can string these clues together for him based on the news from the past two days. What is very rare is a five-month social security reduction or exemption. From February to June, any company that participates in the social security plan can be exempted from paying social security for five months, involving an amount of 650 billion yuan.</p><p>The reason for such a large tax cut is that it is targeted. It is to prevent small and medium-sized enterprises from being under great pressure because they have not started operations but still have to help their employees pay social security, which puts a lot of pressure on them. Now they are trying to stabilize employment.</p><p>Unlike in 2008, 2009, or 2016, when the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance would aggressively invest in infrastructure and promote the real estate market as soon as the economic GDP dropped.</p><p>Another thing is the fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report last night. The central bank also made it very clear that it will not use stimulating the real estate market as an important means to stabilize the economy in the short term. This makes it very clear that our strategic focus is stronger now than before. The most crucial thing is economic restructuring. We need to stabilize the economy, but at the same time, we need long-term stability.</p><p>Therefore, even this year, the focus of fiscal and monetary policies should be on science and technology infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure. Ordinary infrastructure is just a safety net to prevent the economy from landing hard. The real and larger infrastructure projects include the serious shortage of public healthcare equipment and facilities brought about by this epidemic.</p><p>Investment in things like 5G and semiconductors will also increase. This is what is known as science and technology infrastructure. It is conducive to stabilizing growth in the short term, as well as employment, especially for college graduates. At the same time, it can help us increase the efficiency of economic growth in the future, especially the momentum of economic growth. This is one level.</p><p>Secondly, from a funding perspective, which places can have the money to support economic transformation? Especially towards high efficiency and high quality?</p><p>My answer is a multi-tiered capital market.</p><p>This time, don't expect to expand the balance sheet, because the three domestic balance sheets are not doing well right now, and we can no longer tolerate increased leverage.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the relaxation period that can be compared this time is not 2016, 2008, or 2009, but the first four months of 2019. In other words, after solving short-term economic difficulties, we still need to return to doing the right things in the long term.</p><p>I tend to say that from the perspective of capital flow, whether in the short or long term, the most successful industries are still those with high technological content, especially manufacturing industries with high technological content, especially things like the so-called Made in China 2025.</p><p>Advanced manufacturing and technology industries will expand in both directions.</p><p>The multi-tiered capital market, especially the stock market, is the one that can continuously bring growth funds.</p><p>This year, the technology sector will expand in both directions, focusing on advanced manufacturing. On the one hand, refinancing is more convenient, and some off-exchange industrial capital will enter the stock market through the primary market and the primary and secondary markets, which will result in a very large increase in funds.</p><p>In other words, the capital market has transformed from a tool into an effective channel for allocating idle domestic funds and resources.</p><p>As long as there is a profit-making effect,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>That's how the money came in.</p><p>This is a very positive two-way expansion, and the direction is most likely in line with national strategic thinking. It's a strategic mistake to expect good things to be cheap again. It's like last year, when everyone kept thinking about buying Moutai if it was cheaper, but it just wasn't cheap.</p><p>If we look at the valuation of technology stocks this year based on the valuations of 2018 and 2019, we will make the same mistake as last year when we always used the valuation of the previous two years to judge Moutai.</p><p>This year, whether considering overseas logic or the short-term stabilization of growth in China and the long-term improvement of China's economic efficiency, these fundamental logic, coupled with the liquidity logic mentioned earlier, will make the sustainability of the market trend expected for several years. It's not just this year; it could be similar to what the United States has seen since 2016.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report was released a couple of days ago, summarizing that over the past two years, the five major tech giants have basically led the US index. Although China is not so concentrated now, we are leading the index with the best industry leaders in advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Technology stocks will rally throughout the year.</p><p>But there will definitely be twists and turns along the</p><p>Finally, one more thing to add: although the performance of technology stocks this year will continue throughout the year, there will definitely be fluctuations in the middle. There are two reasons for the setbacks:</p><p>The first aspect is the fluctuation of risk-free rate of return. Since the Spring Festival, the risk-free rate of return has returned from around 3% to the current 2.8% (measured by the 10-year Treasury Bond yield), but the decline is still slow. Looking at the one-year and three-year Treasury Bond yields, the short-term yields are even more exaggerated.</p><p>This is indeed a good time for technology and growth stocks, but we need to pay attention to the twists and turns ahead.</p><p>For example, if work fully resumes in March and April, monetary policy will need to be coordinated with fiscal policy, which will increase the real economy's demand for funds, which could lead to a rise in market interest rates. However, the upward momentum will be weak, and March and April will not pose a major risk or correction to the market.</p><p>The risk-free rate of return is trending downwards and may enter a low level of fluctuation in March and April, instead of continuing to fall as it is now.</p><p>If tech stocks fluctuate in March or April, it would be a buying opportunity. What should you buy? We need to consider the fundamentals, which are the core of our valuation of technology stocks. We must understand that static valuation is not the core of our buying and selling of technology stocks; the fundamentals are. Good things are rare and valuable.</p><p>How do you measure good things? January is called \"the strong wind knows the strong grass.\" With such poor first-quarter data, whose first-quarter report is still passable? What does it mean to make do? In other words, the impact of February is felt at home, but who can increase volume and price in March from a fundamental perspective, and who still has the momentum to raise prices? Big companies can raise prices and increase their production.</p><p>Therefore, in April, whose performance meets or exceeds expectations is, to put it bluntly, the leading company that can perform throughout the year, or even for the next few years.</p><p>Because the first quarter of this year was a good military parade during the crisis mode, the strength of competitiveness became clear at a glance. These highly competitive leading companies will continue to exist for several years and will accompany China's high-quality economic development for a considerable period.</p><p>In summary, monetary easing is not permanent because it is constrained by external circumstances, asset bubbles, and inflation. Easing monetary policy is only temporary, but with the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure, relatively more funds will be invested in a relatively optimized but relatively small structure. Structure is king; that's the core.</p><p>Five Directions of Technology Stock Bull Market</p><p>Finally, I would like to mention that the bull market in technology stocks may continue for two or three years, rather than a water bubble, but rather an efficiency and structural bull market brought about by the improvement of the economic structure.</p><p>My own opinion is based on these five directions. Of course, the top-performing stocks are selected by high-quality fund companies and fund managers such as Fullgoal Fund, but selecting the five directions from top to bottom is basically in line with Made in China 2025.</p><p>The first is information technology, represented by 5G semiconductors. The so-called next-generation information technologies, represented by 5G cloud, semiconductors, the Internet, and the Internet of Things, are TMT.</p><p>The second is high-end manufacturing, which is represented by new energy vehicles.</p><p>The third is energy conservation, new energy, and new materials. Including clean energy, whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">solar energy</a>Nuclear energy, as well as some energy-saving equipment, including related new materials, can be combined with the application of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In addition, as I just mentioned, monetary easing is not sustainable because, in addition to internal inflation this year, we must also be careful that our oil is in the hands of others. American oil is already exported, and rising oil prices are beneficial to the United States but detrimental to China and Europe.</p><p>China has always been proactive, and its so-called resolve and strategic vision as a major power refer to energy conservation and new energy sources, which also involve technological content. For example, China has a relative advantage in hydrogen energy, solar energy, and clean energy recently; this is the third one.</p><p>The fourth is inclined towards some precision manufacturing, especially the military industry. Precision manufacturing and TMT are still related. Whether it's high-end machine tools, artificial intelligence equipment, drones, large aircraft, etc., these are all precision manufacturing.</p><p>The fifth direction is biomedicine and biotechnology.</p><p>These five directions, the first four directions, may be slightly better in the next stage, while biotechnology may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, because biotechnology was already a little less confident in the first quarter due to the epidemic. The next step is to make great efforts to make up for the shortcomings and invest in public healthcare. Therefore, biotechnology and biomedical opportunities may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter.</p><p>Overall, for high-quality companies in these five sectors, adjustments are buying points; don't be afraid of market fluctuations. In summary, good assets are not afraid of falling; they are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of not falling. This is a characteristic of core assets that I have always talked about.</p><p>Whether we've subtracted from the core assets of traditional industries over the past three years or multiplied and added them in the coming years, the core assets of advanced manufacturing and technology-based industries remain unchanged: good things. Especially when it comes to good stocks with clear fundamentals, you need to stay focused and dare to allocate to them during market fluctuations.</p><p>Q&A session?</p><p>Q: How do you view January's social financing?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">and credit</a>Far exceeding expectations? Is it good for finance and real estate or for technology stocks?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: That's the short-term and long-term aspects, right? From the perspective of social financing, preventing the economy from suffering a hard landing is relatively more positive for value stocks.</p><p>In January of this year, from a growth perspective, local government special bonds accounted for the majority of social financing. These are all efforts to stabilize growth because they are looking for core assets in technology stocks. I do not believe that the technology market in the next two or three years will be simply equivalent to the buffalo, mad bull, and speculative market of 2013-2015. Instead, it tends to be similar to the best ones in the United States since the 1980s, with only a few.</p><p>I estimate that many people would rather buy value stocks than technology stocks this year. Buying tech stocks is like buying \"tech stocks\" indiscriminately, especially for those who have been chasing high prices and buying all the tech stocks these past two days. They may be constantly being slapped on both sides this year, leaving them dizzy and disoriented.</p><p>If you lack research capabilities yourself, researching technology stocks doesn't involve static valuations, but rather considers them from the perspective of an industry. If you're not an industry expert, it's difficult to grasp this overall valuation.</p><p>Technology stocks with high static valuations, even with a high PE ratio, are not cheap. However, discounting the forward cash flow of leading companies is a real challenge, requiring a diamond in the roof.</p><p>Social financing acts as a safety net, preventing the Chinese economy from experiencing a hard landing. If it doesn't, leading companies in cyclical industries like consumer goods or even real estate won't experience unexpected profit cliffs, and their current valuations are relatively cheap, or at least reasonably undervalued. Even the valuation ratios of some leading companies in traditional industries can be compared to static or TTM valuations because their profits are highly stable and predictable. As long as the Chinese economy is not experiencing a systemic slowdown, they can act as a stabilizer and compare their cost-effectiveness with bonds.</p><p>From today's perspective, whether it's a leading company in the real estate industry that can't die, or a company in the financial or traditional industries with a return exceeding 5%, it's more cost-effective for ordinary investors to make a little money. It's safer for ordinary investors to buy value stocks this year because risk-free returns are low. Leading companies in traditional industries are better off than bonds and wealth management products.</p><p>Social financing has little impact on technology stocks. The rise in technology stocks is largely due to two factors: one is the unchanged interest rate and the continuous decline in yields; The second part is related to some regulatory policies, which mean that if there is too much flour, add water, and if there is too much water, add flour. As long as there is a continuous profit-making effect in this market, there will be a continuous stream of incremental money coming in, and the structural market will continue.</p><p>Finally, in summary, my view on this year's market is that the index is in a balanced market, neither a bull nor a bear market. Don't expect a single rise to lead to a major bull market. In a so-called bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index will rise by at least 20% in a year. The Shanghai Composite Index cannot see this because the economy is just stabilizing at a bottom, not a hard landing.</p><p><div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of a buffalo; fluctuations in tech stocks in March and April are a buying opportunity.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of a buffalo; fluctuations in tech stocks in March and April are a buying opportunity.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全景财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-02-25 20:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div></div><div></div>Source: Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature)</p><p>\"I have always reminded people not to have the illusion of a buffalo. There will be monetary easing this year, but this year it will not be a buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.\"</p><p>\"Fiscal and monetary policies should also focus on science and technology infrastructure, not just ordinary infrastructure.\"</p><p>\"Although the performance of technology stocks this year will continue throughout the year, there will definitely be fluctuations in the middle.\"</p><p>\"If technology stocks fluctuate in March and April, that would be a buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The above is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, Global Chief Strategist, shared his latest insightful perspectives in a conversation today with Zhang Shengxian, Chief Strategist and Fund Manager of the Quantitative Investment Department at Fullgoal Fund.</p><p>Zhang Shengxian is the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Fullgoal Fund. It manages multiple thematic industry index funds, including Fullgoal CSI Military Industry, Fullgoal State-owned Enterprise Reform, and Fullgoal Intelligent Vehicles.</p><p>In this dialogue and Q&A session, Zhang Yidong shared his views on technology stocks in 2020, provided his analysis of monetary and fiscal policies, and gave clear answers on which technology industries he is optimistic about.</p><p>Smart investors have compiled some exciting content and are sharing it with you.</p><p>Both Chinese and American tech stocks are quite expensive.</p><p>But Chinese tech stocks have more potential.</p><p>We just talked about the world, but when it comes to China, China is now facing a good opportunity, which is the new protagonist of the global asset shortage and the bull market of China's core assets. This is our annual strategy for 2020, and the name is clear.</p><p>It is now clear that these good tech stocks in the United States are not cheap, but also very expensive. Many people say that our tech stocks are quite expensive, but when they are all too expensive, we should look at their potential, ROE, and future growth potential.</p><p>For growth stocks, especially technology-based growth stocks, don't look at static valuations. If you look at static valuations, you'll never be able to buy them; they're all expensive.</p><p>Fisher is a master of growth stocks. He never views growth stocks in the same way as cyclical stocks. The biggest risk in growth stock valuation is that he is a scammer. He is neither a growth stock nor a technology stock.</p><p>Just like why, after the 2015 crash, people found that many so-called tech stocks performed so badly, falling by as much as 70-80%, and sometimes even 90%. What was the reason? Because after this round of excitement, everyone discovered that it had been proven false, and that it lacked any technological advancements.</p><p>China's technology market is currently in its early stages, because at least for now, you cannot deny that some leading companies in the systems industry, these technology-intensive companies, although their short-term static valuations are high, should not be misled. We should now focus on the economic environment, policy environment, and global capital flows behind these leading companies in the systems industry.</p><p>So what exactly is the underlying economic environment? In China's economic environment, deleveraging has achieved great success. The phase of subtraction has come to an end. Now we need to consider addition and multiplication. As you can see, China's demand for these is quite large, and we have a strong late-mover advantage.</p><p>Although China's demographic dividend is declining, our engineer dividend is still very strong, and our capital investment in science and technology, whether in education, college students, or our annual investment in scientific research, is second only to that of the United States.</p><p>Against the backdrop of the risk of overcapacity, those things that truly align with China's high-quality development and have real demand are precisely those with technological content. And those things with technological content were summarized a couple of years ago, and the structural growth points were summarized in one word: Made in China 2025.</p><p>We must always remember that Made in China 2025 has one main theme, four transformations, five major projects, eight strategies, and ten major areas.</p><p>One main theme is the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, with digital, networked, and intelligent manufacturing as the main theme.</p><p>Made in China 2025 is not just about the big, clumsy manufacturing that people think of; it actually focuses on digital and intelligent manufacturing, encompassing both soft and hard aspects.</p><p>Look at the ten major areas: next-generation information technology, high-end machine tools...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Aerospace, marine engineering, high-tech shipbuilding, advanced orbit, energy-saving new energy, power equipment, new materials, biotechnology, and so on—there really are both hard and soft aspects. From this perspective, we can see our real needs and the most efficient aspects.</p><p>Don't have the illusion of a buffalo.</p><p>This year's bull market is a technology bull market and a structural bull market.</p><p>Returning to the present, everyone is quite worried about China's economy, and in the past two days some people have started to speculate because the LPR was lowered today. I also received a lot of calls wondering if there will be a big easing of monetary policy.</p><p>I've always warned against having the illusion of a buffalo. There will be monetary easing this year, but it won't be a buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Why do I say that? Because our current economic structure, as well as the tertiary industry and service sector, are the main drivers of GDP, and from an employment perspective, the tertiary industry and service sector are also the main drivers of GDP. Therefore, employment is the reason for our monetary easing.</p><p>You can string these clues together for him based on the news from the past two days. What is very rare is a five-month social security reduction or exemption. From February to June, any company that participates in the social security plan can be exempted from paying social security for five months, involving an amount of 650 billion yuan.</p><p>The reason for such a large tax cut is that it is targeted. It is to prevent small and medium-sized enterprises from being under great pressure because they have not started operations but still have to help their employees pay social security, which puts a lot of pressure on them. Now they are trying to stabilize employment.</p><p>Unlike in 2008, 2009, or 2016, when the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance would aggressively invest in infrastructure and promote the real estate market as soon as the economic GDP dropped.</p><p>Another thing is the fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report last night. The central bank also made it very clear that it will not use stimulating the real estate market as an important means to stabilize the economy in the short term. This makes it very clear that our strategic focus is stronger now than before. The most crucial thing is economic restructuring. We need to stabilize the economy, but at the same time, we need long-term stability.</p><p>Therefore, even this year, the focus of fiscal and monetary policies should be on science and technology infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure. Ordinary infrastructure is just a safety net to prevent the economy from landing hard. The real and larger infrastructure projects include the serious shortage of public healthcare equipment and facilities brought about by this epidemic.</p><p>Investment in things like 5G and semiconductors will also increase. This is what is known as science and technology infrastructure. It is conducive to stabilizing growth in the short term, as well as employment, especially for college graduates. At the same time, it can help us increase the efficiency of economic growth in the future, especially the momentum of economic growth. This is one level.</p><p>Secondly, from a funding perspective, which places can have the money to support economic transformation? Especially towards high efficiency and high quality?</p><p>My answer is a multi-tiered capital market.</p><p>This time, don't expect to expand the balance sheet, because the three domestic balance sheets are not doing well right now, and we can no longer tolerate increased leverage.</p><p>From a policy perspective, the relaxation period that can be compared this time is not 2016, 2008, or 2009, but the first four months of 2019. In other words, after solving short-term economic difficulties, we still need to return to doing the right things in the long term.</p><p>I tend to say that from the perspective of capital flow, whether in the short or long term, the most successful industries are still those with high technological content, especially manufacturing industries with high technological content, especially things like the so-called Made in China 2025.</p><p>Advanced manufacturing and technology industries will expand in both directions.</p><p>The multi-tiered capital market, especially the stock market, is the one that can continuously bring growth funds.</p><p>This year, the technology sector will expand in both directions, focusing on advanced manufacturing. On the one hand, refinancing is more convenient, and some off-exchange industrial capital will enter the stock market through the primary market and the primary and secondary markets, which will result in a very large increase in funds.</p><p>In other words, the capital market has transformed from a tool into an effective channel for allocating idle domestic funds and resources.</p><p>As long as there is a profit-making effect,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>That's how the money came in.</p><p>This is a very positive two-way expansion, and the direction is most likely in line with national strategic thinking. It's a strategic mistake to expect good things to be cheap again. It's like last year, when everyone kept thinking about buying Moutai if it was cheaper, but it just wasn't cheap.</p><p>If we look at the valuation of technology stocks this year based on the valuations of 2018 and 2019, we will make the same mistake as last year when we always used the valuation of the previous two years to judge Moutai.</p><p>This year, whether considering overseas logic or the short-term stabilization of growth in China and the long-term improvement of China's economic efficiency, these fundamental logic, coupled with the liquidity logic mentioned earlier, will make the sustainability of the market trend expected for several years. It's not just this year; it could be similar to what the United States has seen since 2016.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report was released a couple of days ago, summarizing that over the past two years, the five major tech giants have basically led the US index. Although China is not so concentrated now, we are leading the index with the best industry leaders in advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Technology stocks will rally throughout the year.</p><p>But there will definitely be twists and turns along the</p><p>Finally, one more thing to add: although the performance of technology stocks this year will continue throughout the year, there will definitely be fluctuations in the middle. There are two reasons for the setbacks:</p><p>The first aspect is the fluctuation of risk-free rate of return. Since the Spring Festival, the risk-free rate of return has returned from around 3% to the current 2.8% (measured by the 10-year Treasury Bond yield), but the decline is still slow. Looking at the one-year and three-year Treasury Bond yields, the short-term yields are even more exaggerated.</p><p>This is indeed a good time for technology and growth stocks, but we need to pay attention to the twists and turns ahead.</p><p>For example, if work fully resumes in March and April, monetary policy will need to be coordinated with fiscal policy, which will increase the real economy's demand for funds, which could lead to a rise in market interest rates. However, the upward momentum will be weak, and March and April will not pose a major risk or correction to the market.</p><p>The risk-free rate of return is trending downwards and may enter a low level of fluctuation in March and April, instead of continuing to fall as it is now.</p><p>If tech stocks fluctuate in March or April, it would be a buying opportunity. What should you buy? We need to consider the fundamentals, which are the core of our valuation of technology stocks. We must understand that static valuation is not the core of our buying and selling of technology stocks; the fundamentals are. Good things are rare and valuable.</p><p>How do you measure good things? January is called \"the strong wind knows the strong grass.\" With such poor first-quarter data, whose first-quarter report is still passable? What does it mean to make do? In other words, the impact of February is felt at home, but who can increase volume and price in March from a fundamental perspective, and who still has the momentum to raise prices? Big companies can raise prices and increase their production.</p><p>Therefore, in April, whose performance meets or exceeds expectations is, to put it bluntly, the leading company that can perform throughout the year, or even for the next few years.</p><p>Because the first quarter of this year was a good military parade during the crisis mode, the strength of competitiveness became clear at a glance. These highly competitive leading companies will continue to exist for several years and will accompany China's high-quality economic development for a considerable period.</p><p>In summary, monetary easing is not permanent because it is constrained by external circumstances, asset bubbles, and inflation. Easing monetary policy is only temporary, but with the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure, relatively more funds will be invested in a relatively optimized but relatively small structure. Structure is king; that's the core.</p><p>Five Directions of Technology Stock Bull Market</p><p>Finally, I would like to mention that the bull market in technology stocks may continue for two or three years, rather than a water bubble, but rather an efficiency and structural bull market brought about by the improvement of the economic structure.</p><p>My own opinion is based on these five directions. Of course, the top-performing stocks are selected by high-quality fund companies and fund managers such as Fullgoal Fund, but selecting the five directions from top to bottom is basically in line with Made in China 2025.</p><p>The first is information technology, represented by 5G semiconductors. The so-called next-generation information technologies, represented by 5G cloud, semiconductors, the Internet, and the Internet of Things, are TMT.</p><p>The second is high-end manufacturing, which is represented by new energy vehicles.</p><p>The third is energy conservation, new energy, and new materials. Including clean energy, whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">solar energy</a>Nuclear energy, as well as some energy-saving equipment, including related new materials, can be combined with the application of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In addition, as I just mentioned, monetary easing is not sustainable because, in addition to internal inflation this year, we must also be careful that our oil is in the hands of others. American oil is already exported, and rising oil prices are beneficial to the United States but detrimental to China and Europe.</p><p>China has always been proactive, and its so-called resolve and strategic vision as a major power refer to energy conservation and new energy sources, which also involve technological content. For example, China has a relative advantage in hydrogen energy, solar energy, and clean energy recently; this is the third one.</p><p>The fourth is inclined towards some precision manufacturing, especially the military industry. Precision manufacturing and TMT are still related. Whether it's high-end machine tools, artificial intelligence equipment, drones, large aircraft, etc., these are all precision manufacturing.</p><p>The fifth direction is biomedicine and biotechnology.</p><p>These five directions, the first four directions, may be slightly better in the next stage, while biotechnology may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, because biotechnology was already a little less confident in the first quarter due to the epidemic. The next step is to make great efforts to make up for the shortcomings and invest in public healthcare. Therefore, biotechnology and biomedical opportunities may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter.</p><p>Overall, for high-quality companies in these five sectors, adjustments are buying points; don't be afraid of market fluctuations. In summary, good assets are not afraid of falling; they are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of not falling. This is a characteristic of core assets that I have always talked about.</p><p>Whether we've subtracted from the core assets of traditional industries over the past three years or multiplied and added them in the coming years, the core assets of advanced manufacturing and technology-based industries remain unchanged: good things. Especially when it comes to good stocks with clear fundamentals, you need to stay focused and dare to allocate to them during market fluctuations.</p><p>Q&A session?</p><p>Q: How do you view January's social financing?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">and credit</a>Far exceeding expectations? Is it good for finance and real estate or for technology stocks?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: That's the short-term and long-term aspects, right? From the perspective of social financing, preventing the economy from suffering a hard landing is relatively more positive for value stocks.</p><p>In January of this year, from a growth perspective, local government special bonds accounted for the majority of social financing. These are all efforts to stabilize growth because they are looking for core assets in technology stocks. I do not believe that the technology market in the next two or three years will be simply equivalent to the buffalo, mad bull, and speculative market of 2013-2015. Instead, it tends to be similar to the best ones in the United States since the 1980s, with only a few.</p><p>I estimate that many people would rather buy value stocks than technology stocks this year. Buying tech stocks is like buying \"tech stocks\" indiscriminately, especially for those who have been chasing high prices and buying all the tech stocks these past two days. They may be constantly being slapped on both sides this year, leaving them dizzy and disoriented.</p><p>If you lack research capabilities yourself, researching technology stocks doesn't involve static valuations, but rather considers them from the perspective of an industry. If you're not an industry expert, it's difficult to grasp this overall valuation.</p><p>Technology stocks with high static valuations, even with a high PE ratio, are not cheap. However, discounting the forward cash flow of leading companies is a real challenge, requiring a diamond in the roof.</p><p>Social financing acts as a safety net, preventing the Chinese economy from experiencing a hard landing. If it doesn't, leading companies in cyclical industries like consumer goods or even real estate won't experience unexpected profit cliffs, and their current valuations are relatively cheap, or at least reasonably undervalued. Even the valuation ratios of some leading companies in traditional industries can be compared to static or TTM valuations because their profits are highly stable and predictable. As long as the Chinese economy is not experiencing a systemic slowdown, they can act as a stabilizer and compare their cost-effectiveness with bonds.</p><p>From today's perspective, whether it's a leading company in the real estate industry that can't die, or a company in the financial or traditional industries with a return exceeding 5%, it's more cost-effective for ordinary investors to make a little money. It's safer for ordinary investors to buy value stocks this year because risk-free returns are low. Leading companies in traditional industries are better off than bonds and wealth management products.</p><p>Social financing has little impact on technology stocks. The rise in technology stocks is largely due to two factors: one is the unchanged interest rate and the continuous decline in yields; The second part is related to some regulatory policies, which mean that if there is too much flour, add water, and if there is too much water, add flour. As long as there is a continuous profit-making effect in this market, there will be a continuous stream of incremental money coming in, and the structural market will continue.</p><p>Finally, in summary, my view on this year's market is that the index is in a balanced market, neither a bull nor a bear market. Don't expect a single rise to lead to a major bull market. In a so-called bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index will rise by at least 20% in a year. The Shanghai Composite Index cannot see this because the economy is just stabilizing at a bottom, not a hard landing.</p><p><div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6176407506_170247fd201900m6va.html\">全景财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6176407506_170247fd201900m6va.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2014866596","content_text":"来源：聪明投资者（ID：Capital-nature）“我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。”“财政政策，货币政策着力的一个落脚点也应该是科技基建，不是普通的那种基建。”“今年科技股的行情虽然是贯穿全年，但在中间一定会有波折。”“三四月份如果科技股有波动，那会是个买点。”以上，是兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东，今天在和富国基金量化投资部首席策略分析师、基金经理张圣贤的一场对话中，给出的最新精彩观点。张圣贤是富国基金量化投资部首席策略分析师、基金经理。管理包括富国中证军工、富国国企改革、富国智能汽车等在内的多只主题行业指数基金。在本次对话和问答中，张忆东分享了他对于2020年科技股的看法，对货币财政政策也给出了他的分析，对于看好哪些科技类行业，也给出了明确的答案。聪明投资者整理了精彩内容，分享给大家。中美科技股都挺贵但中国的科技股更有后劲刚才讲的是全球，落实到中国，中国现在面临着一个好的机会，就是全球资产荒和中国核心资产牛市的新主角，就是我们2020年的年度策略，名字就旗帜鲜明。现在很明显，美国的这种好的科技股不便宜，也很贵的。很多人讲我们的科技股也挺贵的，但是都偏贵的情况下看后劲，看ROE，看你未来的增长空间。成长股，特别是科技型的成长股，静态估值是不要看的，你要看静态估值永远下不了手，都是贵的。费雪是个成长股的大师，从来不会按照周期股的这种估值方式来看成长股，成长股估值最大的风险，在于他是一个骗子，他不是成长股，他不是科技股。就像为什么2015年崩盘之后，大家发现很多所谓的科技股后来好惨，跌了甚至百分之七八十，甚至有时候还跌了90%的，原因是什么？因为这一轮亢奋之后，大家发现说它被证伪了，他没有科技性的。中国目前科技行情刚刚是方兴未艾，因为至少目前你无法证伪，系统行业的一些龙头、这些有科技含量的公司，虽然他短期静态估值贵，千万不要被迷惑，我们现在要将重点是聚焦于这些系统行业的龙头背后的经济环境、政策环境以及全球的这种资金的流动。那什么叫做背后的经济环境？中国的经济环境，去杠杆已经取得了很大的一个成就，做减法的阶段已经告一段落，现在要考虑的是做加法乘法的事儿，而这些你可以看到中国的需求还是蛮大的，而且我们后发优势还是很强的。虽然中国人口红利在衰竭，但是我们工程师红利还是很强的，而且我们的资本对于科技的投入，无论是从教育、大学生这些，还是我们每年投入到科研方面的资金是仅次于美国的。在动辄就有可能产能过剩的背景下，真正的符合中国高质量发展的，有实实在在需求的恰恰是那些有科技含量的东西，而那些有科技含量的东西，前两年已经总结了，结构的增长点他总结一个词叫做中国制造2025。我们还是要牢牢记住，中国制造2025一条主线、四个转变、五大工程、八项战略，十大领域。一条主线就是以信息技术和制造业技术深度融合，以数字化、网络化、智能化的制造为主线，这是一条主线。中国的制造2025不只是大家想的傻大笨粗的制造，他其实是数字化、智能化制造为主线，有软有硬的、你再看十大领域，什么新一代信息技术、什么高端机床机器人、航空航天、海洋工程、高技术船舶、先进的轨道、节能新能源、电力设备、新材料、生物科技等等，真的有硬的有软的。从这个角度也就看到了我们实实在在的需求，最有效率的地方。不要有水牛的幻觉今年的牛市是科技牛、结构牛回到现在，大家都比较担心中国的经济，而且这两天有人开始yy，因为今天LPR降了，我也接了不少电话，觉得说会不会大放水的了。我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。为什么这么讲？因为我们现在的经济结构以及第三产业和服务业是推动GDP主要的力量了，而且从就业的角度来说也是第三产业服务业，所以就业才是我们放水的原因。这两天的新闻，你可以把这些线索给他串一串。很罕见的是减免社保5个月，从2月份到6月份，只要你参与社保计划的企业就可以5个月免交，涉及的金额6500亿。为什么有这么大的一个减税的力度，就是有针对性的，为了防止的那种中小企业的压力大，没有开工，但是还要继续的去帮助员工缴社保，压力就很大，现在他就为了稳就业。不像2008年、2009年或者2016年，只要经济GDP一下来，发改委，财政部就猛搞基建，大放房地产。再有一个事，就是昨天晚上四季度的货币政策执行报告，央行也很明确，不把刺激房地产作为短期稳定经济的重要手段，这就已经很明确了，我们现在战略定力比以前要强了，最关键还是经济结构调整，我们既要经济能稳住，但同时又要有长治久安。所以就算是今年，财政政策，货币政策着力的一个落脚点也应该是科技基建，不是普通的那种基建，普通的基建只是保底托底，不让经济硬着陆，而真正的更大力度的基建，也包括这次疫情带来的公共医疗的设备设施严重不足。还有包括5G、半导体这些的投入都会加大的，这就是所谓科技基建，既利于短期稳增长，又利于就业，特别是大学生就业，同时又能够对我们未来增经济增长的效率，特别是经济增长后劲是有帮助的。这是一个层面。第二，从资金的层面，哪些地方能够有钱可以去支持经济的转型？特别是向高效率、高质量的方向发展？我的答案是多层次资本市场。这一次不要指望说扩张资产负债表，因为现在国内的三张表都不太好，不能够再纵容加杠杆。从政策的角度来说，这一次能够类比的放松时间不是2016年、2008年、2009年，而是2019年的前4个月。也就是说解决经济短期的困难之后，还是要回到做长期正确的事。我倾向于说从资金的流向来看，无论是短期还是长期，最胜利的依然是有科技含量的，特别是有科技含量的制造业，特别是所谓的中国制造2025那一类的东西。先进制造业、科技行业会是双向扩容而能够持续带来增长资金的一定是多层次资本市场，特别是股市。今年围绕着先进制造业，科技行业会是双向扩容。一方面再融资更加便利化，会有一些场外的产业资本透过一级市场和一级半市场进入到股市来，这个增长资金非常大的。也就相当于说，资本市场从一个抓手，变成一个有效的配置国内闲散资金、配置资源的一个通道。只要有赚钱效应，老百姓的钱也就进来了。这就是一个很良性的双向扩容，而且方向大概率是按照国家战略思考的方向。你指望好东西回到很便宜，那有点犯战略错误，就好比去年，大家老是想茅台便宜一点再买便宜点再买，它就是不便宜。如果大家再按照2018、2019年的估值来看今年科技股的估值，也会犯类似于去年老是用前两年的估值看茅台一样的错误。今年无论是从海外的逻辑，还是说中国国内短期稳增长以及长期中国经济效益的提升，这些基本面的逻辑，再叠加刚才提到的资金面的逻辑，都会使得行情的持续性数年有望。不只是今年一年，有可能类似于美国从2016年到现在。高盛前两天刚出了一个报告，总结了这两年基本上就是5大科技巨头带着美国指数走的。中国虽然现在不是那么集中，但我们恰恰是以先进制造业里面最优秀的行业龙头带着指数走。科技股行情将贯穿全年但中间一定会有波折最后再补充一下，今年科技股的行情虽然是贯穿全年，但在中间一定会有波折。波折的原因有两个方面：第1个方面是无风险收益率的波动。从春节到现在，无风险收益率一路从3%左右回到了现在的2.8%（以10年期国债收益率来衡量），这还是降的慢。以一年期、三年期的国债收益率来看，短端更加夸张。这个时候的确是科技股、成长股好日子，但是我们要关注后面的波折。打个比方，三四月份如果全面复工，货币政策要跟财政政策相配套，实体经济对资金的使用需求就增强增多，增多了以后对于市场利率就有可能抬升。但是抬升的力度会很弱，三四月份不会构成市场的大风险，大调整。无风险收益率趋势性的下行，到三四月份可能会进入到低位波动，而不是像现在一路向下打。三四月份如果科技股有波动，那会是个买点，买什么？要根据基本面，这个基本面才是我们买科技股估值（的核心），一定要知道静态估值不是我们买卖科技股的核心，基本面才是。好东西，物为稀为贵。用什么来衡量好东西？1月份叫疾风知劲草，在一季度数据这样糟糕的情况下，谁的一季报还凑合？什么叫凑合？也就是2月份受的影响在家都承受，但是谁能够在3月份从基本面上面量价提升，还有涨价的动能嘛，牛的公司就能涨价，并且把自己的产量提高。所以4月份，谁的业绩能够符合预期或者超预期的，说白了这就是能够贯穿全年的龙头，甚至是未来数年的龙头。因为今年一季度危机模式下是一个很好的阅兵式，这个时候竞争力的强弱就一目了然了。竞争力强的这些龙头公司，它仍然会贯穿数年，会较长时间伴随着中国经济高质量发展。总结一下，放水不是永远，因为它受到外部形势、资产泡沫、通胀的制约。放水，水牛只是短暂的，但是经济结构的优化、调整，相对多的资金反而会投入到相对优化的但是又相对少的结构中去。结构为王，这才是核心。科技股牛市的五个方向最后说一下，科技股牛市未来可能有个两三年的延续性，而不是水牛，是经济结构改善所带来的效率牛、结构牛。我自己的看法是这样5个方向，当然，里边的牛股是由富国基金这些优质的基金公司、基金经理来选的，但是自上而下选5个方向基本上就是跟中国制造2025贴切的。第1个，5G半导体为代表的信息技术。所谓的5G云、半导体、互联网、物联网为代表的新一代信息技术，就是TMT。第2个就是高端制造，高端制造又是以新能源车为代表。第3个是节能新能源，新材料。包括清洁能源，无论是太阳能，核能，还是一些节能的设备，包括与此相关的新材料，它和新能源车的应用是可以结合的。另外，我刚才提到了放水不持续，因为今年除了内部有通胀之外，还要小心我们的油掌握在别人手中。而老美石油已经是出口了，油价的上涨有利于美国，不利于中国和欧洲。中国向来是未雨绸缪，所谓的大国定力和战略眼光就是节能新能源，这个也是有技术含量的。比如说最近的氢能、太阳能、清洁能源这些，中国也有相对优势，这是第3个。第4个倾向于一些精密制造，特别是军工。精密制造和TMT还是相联系的，无论是一些高端的机床，还是人工智能设备，无人机、大飞机等等，这些都是精密制造。第5个方向，生物医药，生物科技。这5个方向，前4个方向，下个阶段可能会略好，而生物科技下半年可能会比二季度要好一些，因为一季度由于疫情的原因，生物科技已经有点不太自信了，下一步就要围绕着公共医疗进行大力度的补短板、投入。所以下半年生物科技、生物医疗机会可能会比二季度要好一点。总体来说这5个方向里面的优质公司，调整就是买入点，市场的波动不要怕。总结起来就是好东西就不怕跌，跌不怕，怕不跌，这我一直讲的核心资产的一个特征。无论是过去三年来对传统行业的核心资产做减法，还是说未来几年的做乘法和加法，这种先进制造业、科技型行业的核心资产依然不变的是好东西。特别是围绕着基本面明确的这种好东西，要咬定青山，在市场波动的时候要敢于去配置。问答环节？问：如何看待一月社融和信贷大超预期？是利好金融地产还是利好科技股？张忆东：这就是短期和长期了吧，从社融的角度来说，让经济不至于有一个失足硬着陆的风险，相对来说，对于价值股是更正面的。今年1月份的社融，从增长的角度，地方专项债的是个大头，这些都是属于稳增长的力度，因为是找科技股里边的核心资产，我并不认为未来两三年的科技行情简单等同于13~15年的什么水牛、疯牛、乱炒的那一个，而是倾向于是一个类似于美国80年代以后一批最优秀的这种，只有少数的。我估计今年很多人买科技股还不如买价值股的。买科技股就是自己乱买“科技股”，特别是这两天追高买所有科技股的人，有可能在今年不断的两边挨巴掌，被抽的晕头转向。如果你自己没有研究能力，科技股的研究不是按照静态估值，而是从一个产业的角度来思考，你如果不是一个产业专家，很难把握住这种整体估值。静态估值在高位，甚至抱着PE也不便宜的这种科技股，但是龙头公司的远期现金流折现真的是个瓷器活，要有金刚钻的。社融它是个托底的作用，它使得中国经济不至于硬着陆，而一旦不是硬着陆，无论是消费，甚至是地产那种周期行业的龙头公司，他们的盈利就不会产生了超预期的断崖，而现在估值又相对便宜，或者至少是合理偏低估的。甚至有一些传统行业的龙头公司的估值比，他们这些是完全可以看静态估值、TTM估值的，因为他们盈利的稳定性、可预测性强，只要中国经济不是一个系统性的失速，他们起到一个稳定器的作用，就可以跟债券比较看性价比。从现在的角度来说，无论是地产里面死不了的龙头公司，金融行业、传统行业里面的收益率超过5%的，对于普通投资者赚点小钱性价比更好。普通投资者今年买价值股更稳妥，因为无风险收益率在低位，那些传统行业的龙头公司，它比债券强，比你买理财产品要强。社融这一块跟科技股影响不大。因为科技股的上涨更多由两块因素导致的，一块就是资金利率不变，收益率的不断的下行；第2块是和一些监管政策，也就是面多了加水，水多了加面，只要这个行情里面不断有赚钱效应，就会源源不断的有一些增量的钱进来，结构性行情会持续。最后上一个总结，我对今年的行情看法，指数是平衡市，不是牛市也不是熊市，不要指望着一涨就是大牛市，所谓的牛市的上证综指一年至少涨幅超过20%，上证综指看不到，因为经济的只是一个底部企稳，不是硬着陆。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.6,"03086":0.6,"TTTN":0.6,"QNETCN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980484639,"gmtCreate":1582595418421,"gmtModify":1705428876786,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457235060590479","authorIdStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/980484639","repostId":"1194164958","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980917955,"gmtCreate":1582160433677,"gmtModify":1705427969000,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457235060590479","authorIdStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/980917955","repostId":"1163103822","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
