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华美虎
2023-03-31
nonsense[微笑]
市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！
华美虎
2021-02-18
an interesting company
C3.ai: An Interesting Prospect
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","listText":"nonsense[微笑] ","text":"nonsense[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/659458174","repostId":"2323678027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2323678027","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680170043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2323678027?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-30 17:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323678027","media":"金十数据","summary":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！</blockquote><p>RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：</p><blockquote>“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”</blockquote><p>罗伯维兹称，<strong>押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。</strong></p><p>美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。</p><p>就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。<strong>如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。</strong></p><p><strong>降息总是“哀鸿遍野”</strong></p><p>自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。<strong>标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03a5178e50b7a4dce343ded734f8f37\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"417\"/></p><p>最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。</p><p>那么，<strong>为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？</strong>因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。</p><p><strong>在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境</strong>。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f0eeae55291adb1bc75e929c0c8da3\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"534\"/></p><p><strong>当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。</strong>正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。</p><p><strong>美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌</strong></p><p>鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，<strong>与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？</strong></p><p>下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，<strong>加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%</strong>，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46b1c2dfa074f9f1ebff7f403c4a0ffa\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，<strong>还有两个需要考虑的因素</strong>。</p><p>首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。<strong>这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f50898eeee026c0a6ffd62ae6458b47\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，<strong>最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的</strong>，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。</p><p><em>注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c2d76a2c5ad5be94c5856d8b792390a\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"536\"/></p><p>目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但<strong>估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平</strong>，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：</p><blockquote>“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”</blockquote><p><strong>市场对降息的预期并不现实</strong></p><p>美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。<strong>如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题</strong>。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，<strong>无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。</strong></p><p>关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。</p><p>下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而<strong>过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361e1e203de45df7c9ee78346425ff90\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"538\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-30 17:54 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4588":"碎股","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323678027","content_text":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。降息总是“哀鸿遍野”自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。那么，为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，还有两个需要考虑的因素。首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”市场对降息的预期并不现实美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384271492,"gmtCreate":1613659194116,"gmtModify":1704883345652,"author":{"id":"3481012429279872","authorId":"3481012429279872","name":"华美虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069e1f4d34b1cef685e7c8573928fad2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3481012429279872","authorIdStr":"3481012429279872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"an interesting company","listText":"an interesting company","text":"an interesting company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384271492","repostId":"1138482876","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138482876","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612764810,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138482876?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-08 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"C3.ai: An Interesting Prospect","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138482876","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nC3.ai is a unique company offering full-service AI solutions to Enterprise level customers.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>C3.ai is a unique company offering full-service AI solutions to Enterprise level customers.</li>\n <li>With a large addressable market and strong management, C3.ai is set to navigate an uncertain time.</li>\n <li>Initial craze of C3.ai has led its current price to be slightly overvalued.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>C3.ai Inc.(NYSE:AI)is an artificial intelligence software company whose target customer are large enterprises. In 2020, C3.ai was one of the hottest tech IPOs originally IPOing for $42, quickly rising to $140 over the subsequent days. Since then, C3.ai has seen a rise in stock price.</p>\n<p>With recent dips in C3.ai's price the question on many people's mind is is whether now is a good time to buy and where will the price go.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa464d3060df2542ee82be4ab2bd03e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In this article, I break down C3.ai's unique position within the Artificial Intelligence sector and explain how it creates a compelling competitive advantage for C3.ai. C3.ai is a stock that should be attractive to many investors depending on their risk appetite.</p>\n<p><b>AI is still in Vogue</b></p>\n<p>A report from ARK Invest,says that deep learning could be the most important software breakthrough of our time. I mean, we’ve been saying that for years but let’s look at how it works and where C3.ai sits.</p>\n<p>To me, there are 3 broad parts for an enterprise to successfully use AI:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A business problem</li>\n <li>Technology hardware</li>\n <li>Skills/models to achieve desired outcome.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>C3.ai is what I’d consider a ‘full service’ offering in that they solve the last two elements. More specifically C3.ai has three income streams:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>C3 AI Suite. Their core technology allowing customers to rapidly design, develop and deploy an Enterprise AI solution.</li>\n <li>C3 AI Applications. But on top of C3 AI Suite, C3 AI Applications includes turnkey AI solutions that can be used immediately.</li>\n <li>C3.ai Ex Machina. Their no-code solution that enables enterprises to more easily train AI models.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>What makes C3.ai unique when viewed against competitors is the ‘full service’ offering enabling easier access to AI for enterprise. However, C3.ai’s biggest competitors are those that they call technological partners, Google, AWS, and Microsoft are all cloud providers vying to increase their share in the full service AI market. For example AWS Sagemaker is a competing product to C3.ai Ex Machina.</p>\n<p>Whilst the 'full service' nature may appear quite novel for a company of C3.ai’s size, it comes as no surprise when considering major Customer Relationship Management companies such as Salesforce (CRM), Zendesk (ZEN) and other software are rapidly expanding their AI as a service type offering. The benefit of these companies over C3.ai is two-fold:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Ability to specialize and dominate in a traditional vertical. Access to data is not typically an issue SaaS companies face.</li>\n <li>More increased paths to a sale, for example a customer might sign up to Salesforce Service, then upgrade to Einstein Analytics.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The biggest downside to these competing companies is their ability to create bespoke solutions which is where C3.ai stands out. By creating bespoke high-value solutions,C3.ai boasts an impressive average contract value of $12.1 million for FY20.</p>\n<p><b>Lead and Expand</b></p>\n<p>C3.ai adopts a 'lead and expand' style of sales wherein customers initially sign up for a lower contract value and then buy more services from C3.ai, so we can hope that C3.ai's account expansion is positive in the coming years.</p>\n<p>C3.ai's ACV has fallen from$16.m in FY19 to its current $12.1m in FY20. The company put this down to restructuring their sales organization and expanding their market partner ecosystem to expand their offering to smaller enterprises - which I believe is a good move but could potentially put them more in the way of existing solutions.</p>\n<p>C3.ai's IPO success has led to an eye-watering Price to Sales ratio (FWD) of 78.60, Palantir and JFrog have a Price to Sales of roughly 30. This does suggest that the market is heavily overvaluing C3.ai’s sales.</p>\n<p>C3.ai's go-to-market team comprises of 41 staff. With most technology companies, there is often atrade-off between Research and Development and Sales and Marketing Costs. Whilst C3.ai's sales ability has served them will to date, I believe they will be looking for further investment to help land sales deals. Of which, the average sales cycle is around six months.</p>\n<p>Whilst I don't see this as excessively long for the product and services C3.ai sells, it does put pressure on their existing 41 staff and limits the amount of opportunities they can handle at any one time.</p>\n<p>When looking at do it yourself type providers such as AWS, the time to first result is quite long for C3.ai. However, the solution is not as high-value, further investment in go-to-market should be aimed at decreasing their sales cycleto create a competitive advantage.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability and Growth</b></p>\n<p>C3.ai has experienced net losses for each period since their founding in 2009. In FY20, their net loss was $69.4m. This isn't particularly surprising for a technology growth company such as C3.ai, and we should expect these losses to continue for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0f378b9851e9b9bdf36f28fab217d37\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"684\"><span>Source: C3.ai S-1 Report</span></p>\n<p>Pleasingly C3.ai’s top-line revenue has increased 71% YoY, it’s unclear whether this is due to new customer growth or account expansion. Given C3.ai’s strategy of account expansion this is pleasing and goes somewhat to justifying the high Price to Sales ratio.</p>\n<p>Given there is an estimated large addressable market of $271m in 2024 we should hope to see this grow. From an efficiency perspective, C3.ai also have a healthy Gross Margin of 75.1%.</p>\n<p>Their ability to ever become profitable depends on increasing sales both through new customers and account expansion.</p>\n<p>Tom Siebel: The Helmsman</p>\n<p>At a management level, C3.ai has great leadership for a company of its age. At the helm as CEO we have Tom Siebel who is a seasoned Software Innovator who's managed rapidly growing software companies such as Oracle and Siebel Systems.</p>\n<p>Uncertainty caused by COVID has put a squeeze on the company's budgets, this is more pronounced for R&D and exploration spending. The flow on effect to C3.ai is that company's need more certainty that results will follow. This intuitively has two effects for C3.ai:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Potentially longer sales cycle as C3.ai sell the benefits of AI.</li>\n <li>Smaller contract values due to reduced appetite for AI.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Having said that, the Total Addressable Market for AI solutions is large and C3.ai has a first mover's advantage with full-service AI solutions. Siebel and his leadership team are incredibly experienced to help craft their niche and continue to grow their economic moat.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>C3.ai's value proposition is genuinely impressive and this is reflected with the high-value customers they have gained. With green-field opportunities and Tom Siebel at the helm, I'm very bullish on the company.</p>\n<p>However, there are factors against C3.ai with investment in Go-to-market teams needed and potentially slower sales ahead. Current price to sales ratio would imply that C3.ai is overvalued. For an ideal buy that minimizes risk, you may want to see a drop in current price. If increased risk is tolerable, C3.ai's current market position and growth prospects make it an attractive stock.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>C3.ai: An Interesting Prospect</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nC3.ai: An Interesting Prospect\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 14:13 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404209-c3-ai-interesting-prospect><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nC3.ai is a unique company offering full-service AI solutions to Enterprise level customers.\nWith a large addressable market and strong management, C3.ai is set to navigate an uncertain time.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404209-c3-ai-interesting-prospect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AI":"C3.ai, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404209-c3-ai-interesting-prospect","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1138482876","content_text":"Summary\n\nC3.ai is a unique company offering full-service AI solutions to Enterprise level customers.\nWith a large addressable market and strong management, C3.ai is set to navigate an uncertain time.\nInitial craze of C3.ai has led its current price to be slightly overvalued.\n\nC3.ai Inc.(NYSE:AI)is an artificial intelligence software company whose target customer are large enterprises. In 2020, C3.ai was one of the hottest tech IPOs originally IPOing for $42, quickly rising to $140 over the subsequent days. Since then, C3.ai has seen a rise in stock price.\nWith recent dips in C3.ai's price the question on many people's mind is is whether now is a good time to buy and where will the price go.\nData by YCharts\nIn this article, I break down C3.ai's unique position within the Artificial Intelligence sector and explain how it creates a compelling competitive advantage for C3.ai. C3.ai is a stock that should be attractive to many investors depending on their risk appetite.\nAI is still in Vogue\nA report from ARK Invest,says that deep learning could be the most important software breakthrough of our time. I mean, we’ve been saying that for years but let’s look at how it works and where C3.ai sits.\nTo me, there are 3 broad parts for an enterprise to successfully use AI:\n\nA business problem\nTechnology hardware\nSkills/models to achieve desired outcome.\n\nC3.ai is what I’d consider a ‘full service’ offering in that they solve the last two elements. More specifically C3.ai has three income streams:\n\nC3 AI Suite. Their core technology allowing customers to rapidly design, develop and deploy an Enterprise AI solution.\nC3 AI Applications. But on top of C3 AI Suite, C3 AI Applications includes turnkey AI solutions that can be used immediately.\nC3.ai Ex Machina. Their no-code solution that enables enterprises to more easily train AI models.\n\nWhat makes C3.ai unique when viewed against competitors is the ‘full service’ offering enabling easier access to AI for enterprise. However, C3.ai’s biggest competitors are those that they call technological partners, Google, AWS, and Microsoft are all cloud providers vying to increase their share in the full service AI market. For example AWS Sagemaker is a competing product to C3.ai Ex Machina.\nWhilst the 'full service' nature may appear quite novel for a company of C3.ai’s size, it comes as no surprise when considering major Customer Relationship Management companies such as Salesforce (CRM), Zendesk (ZEN) and other software are rapidly expanding their AI as a service type offering. The benefit of these companies over C3.ai is two-fold:\n\nAbility to specialize and dominate in a traditional vertical. Access to data is not typically an issue SaaS companies face.\nMore increased paths to a sale, for example a customer might sign up to Salesforce Service, then upgrade to Einstein Analytics.\n\nThe biggest downside to these competing companies is their ability to create bespoke solutions which is where C3.ai stands out. By creating bespoke high-value solutions,C3.ai boasts an impressive average contract value of $12.1 million for FY20.\nLead and Expand\nC3.ai adopts a 'lead and expand' style of sales wherein customers initially sign up for a lower contract value and then buy more services from C3.ai, so we can hope that C3.ai's account expansion is positive in the coming years.\nC3.ai's ACV has fallen from$16.m in FY19 to its current $12.1m in FY20. The company put this down to restructuring their sales organization and expanding their market partner ecosystem to expand their offering to smaller enterprises - which I believe is a good move but could potentially put them more in the way of existing solutions.\nC3.ai's IPO success has led to an eye-watering Price to Sales ratio (FWD) of 78.60, Palantir and JFrog have a Price to Sales of roughly 30. This does suggest that the market is heavily overvaluing C3.ai’s sales.\nC3.ai's go-to-market team comprises of 41 staff. With most technology companies, there is often atrade-off between Research and Development and Sales and Marketing Costs. Whilst C3.ai's sales ability has served them will to date, I believe they will be looking for further investment to help land sales deals. Of which, the average sales cycle is around six months.\nWhilst I don't see this as excessively long for the product and services C3.ai sells, it does put pressure on their existing 41 staff and limits the amount of opportunities they can handle at any one time.\nWhen looking at do it yourself type providers such as AWS, the time to first result is quite long for C3.ai. However, the solution is not as high-value, further investment in go-to-market should be aimed at decreasing their sales cycleto create a competitive advantage.\nProfitability and Growth\nC3.ai has experienced net losses for each period since their founding in 2009. In FY20, their net loss was $69.4m. This isn't particularly surprising for a technology growth company such as C3.ai, and we should expect these losses to continue for the foreseeable future.\nSource: C3.ai S-1 Report\nPleasingly C3.ai’s top-line revenue has increased 71% YoY, it’s unclear whether this is due to new customer growth or account expansion. Given C3.ai’s strategy of account expansion this is pleasing and goes somewhat to justifying the high Price to Sales ratio.\nGiven there is an estimated large addressable market of $271m in 2024 we should hope to see this grow. From an efficiency perspective, C3.ai also have a healthy Gross Margin of 75.1%.\nTheir ability to ever become profitable depends on increasing sales both through new customers and account expansion.\nTom Siebel: The Helmsman\nAt a management level, C3.ai has great leadership for a company of its age. At the helm as CEO we have Tom Siebel who is a seasoned Software Innovator who's managed rapidly growing software companies such as Oracle and Siebel Systems.\nUncertainty caused by COVID has put a squeeze on the company's budgets, this is more pronounced for R&D and exploration spending. The flow on effect to C3.ai is that company's need more certainty that results will follow. This intuitively has two effects for C3.ai:\n\nPotentially longer sales cycle as C3.ai sell the benefits of AI.\nSmaller contract values due to reduced appetite for AI.\n\nHaving said that, the Total Addressable Market for AI solutions is large and C3.ai has a first mover's advantage with full-service AI solutions. Siebel and his leadership team are incredibly experienced to help craft their niche and continue to grow their economic moat.\nConclusion\nC3.ai's value proposition is genuinely impressive and this is reflected with the high-value customers they have gained. With green-field opportunities and Tom Siebel at the helm, I'm very bullish on the company.\nHowever, there are factors against C3.ai with investment in Go-to-market teams needed and potentially slower sales ahead. Current price to sales ratio would imply that C3.ai is overvalued. For an ideal buy that minimizes risk, you may want to see a drop in current price. If increased risk is tolerable, C3.ai's current market position and growth prospects make it an attractive stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":659458174,"gmtCreate":1680217311199,"gmtModify":1680225639699,"author":{"id":"3481012429279872","authorId":"3481012429279872","name":"华美虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069e1f4d34b1cef685e7c8573928fad2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3481012429279872","authorIdStr":"3481012429279872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nonsense[微笑] ","listText":"nonsense[微笑] ","text":"nonsense[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/659458174","repostId":"2323678027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2323678027","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680170043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2323678027?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-30 17:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323678027","media":"金十数据","summary":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！</blockquote><p>RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：</p><blockquote>“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”</blockquote><p>罗伯维兹称，<strong>押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。</strong></p><p>美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。</p><p>就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。<strong>如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。</strong></p><p><strong>降息总是“哀鸿遍野”</strong></p><p>自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。<strong>标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03a5178e50b7a4dce343ded734f8f37\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"417\"/></p><p>最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。</p><p>那么，<strong>为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？</strong>因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。</p><p><strong>在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境</strong>。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f0eeae55291adb1bc75e929c0c8da3\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"534\"/></p><p><strong>当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。</strong>正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。</p><p><strong>美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌</strong></p><p>鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，<strong>与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？</strong></p><p>下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，<strong>加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%</strong>，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46b1c2dfa074f9f1ebff7f403c4a0ffa\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，<strong>还有两个需要考虑的因素</strong>。</p><p>首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。<strong>这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f50898eeee026c0a6ffd62ae6458b47\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，<strong>最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的</strong>，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。</p><p><em>注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c2d76a2c5ad5be94c5856d8b792390a\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"536\"/></p><p>目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但<strong>估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平</strong>，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：</p><blockquote>“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”</blockquote><p><strong>市场对降息的预期并不现实</strong></p><p>美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。<strong>如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题</strong>。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，<strong>无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。</strong></p><p>关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。</p><p>下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而<strong>过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361e1e203de45df7c9ee78346425ff90\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"538\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场将迎来浩劫？以史为鉴：美联储降息并非好事！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-30 17:54 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4588":"碎股","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323678027","content_text":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。降息总是“哀鸿遍野”自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。那么，为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，还有两个需要考虑的因素。首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”市场对降息的预期并不现实美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384271492,"gmtCreate":1613659194116,"gmtModify":1704883345652,"author":{"id":"3481012429279872","authorId":"3481012429279872","name":"华美虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069e1f4d34b1cef685e7c8573928fad2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3481012429279872","authorIdStr":"3481012429279872"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"an interesting company","listText":"an interesting company","text":"an interesting company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384271492","repostId":"1138482876","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138482876","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612764810,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138482876?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-08 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"C3.ai: An Interesting Prospect","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138482876","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nC3.ai is a unique company offering full-service AI solutions to Enterprise level customers.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>C3.ai is a unique company offering full-service AI solutions to Enterprise level customers.</li>\n <li>With a large addressable market and strong management, C3.ai is set to navigate an uncertain time.</li>\n <li>Initial craze of C3.ai has led its current price to be slightly overvalued.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>C3.ai Inc.(NYSE:AI)is an artificial intelligence software company whose target customer are large enterprises. In 2020, C3.ai was one of the hottest tech IPOs originally IPOing for $42, quickly rising to $140 over the subsequent days. Since then, C3.ai has seen a rise in stock price.</p>\n<p>With recent dips in C3.ai's price the question on many people's mind is is whether now is a good time to buy and where will the price go.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa464d3060df2542ee82be4ab2bd03e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In this article, I break down C3.ai's unique position within the Artificial Intelligence sector and explain how it creates a compelling competitive advantage for C3.ai. C3.ai is a stock that should be attractive to many investors depending on their risk appetite.</p>\n<p><b>AI is still in Vogue</b></p>\n<p>A report from ARK Invest,says that deep learning could be the most important software breakthrough of our time. I mean, we’ve been saying that for years but let’s look at how it works and where C3.ai sits.</p>\n<p>To me, there are 3 broad parts for an enterprise to successfully use AI:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A business problem</li>\n <li>Technology hardware</li>\n <li>Skills/models to achieve desired outcome.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>C3.ai is what I’d consider a ‘full service’ offering in that they solve the last two elements. More specifically C3.ai has three income streams:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>C3 AI Suite. Their core technology allowing customers to rapidly design, develop and deploy an Enterprise AI solution.</li>\n <li>C3 AI Applications. But on top of C3 AI Suite, C3 AI Applications includes turnkey AI solutions that can be used immediately.</li>\n <li>C3.ai Ex Machina. Their no-code solution that enables enterprises to more easily train AI models.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>What makes C3.ai unique when viewed against competitors is the ‘full service’ offering enabling easier access to AI for enterprise. However, C3.ai’s biggest competitors are those that they call technological partners, Google, AWS, and Microsoft are all cloud providers vying to increase their share in the full service AI market. For example AWS Sagemaker is a competing product to C3.ai Ex Machina.</p>\n<p>Whilst the 'full service' nature may appear quite novel for a company of C3.ai’s size, it comes as no surprise when considering major Customer Relationship Management companies such as Salesforce (CRM), Zendesk (ZEN) and other software are rapidly expanding their AI as a service type offering. The benefit of these companies over C3.ai is two-fold:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Ability to specialize and dominate in a traditional vertical. Access to data is not typically an issue SaaS companies face.</li>\n <li>More increased paths to a sale, for example a customer might sign up to Salesforce Service, then upgrade to Einstein Analytics.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The biggest downside to these competing companies is their ability to create bespoke solutions which is where C3.ai stands out. By creating bespoke high-value solutions,C3.ai boasts an impressive average contract value of $12.1 million for FY20.</p>\n<p><b>Lead and Expand</b></p>\n<p>C3.ai adopts a 'lead and expand' style of sales wherein customers initially sign up for a lower contract value and then buy more services from C3.ai, so we can hope that C3.ai's account expansion is positive in the coming years.</p>\n<p>C3.ai's ACV has fallen from$16.m in FY19 to its current $12.1m in FY20. The company put this down to restructuring their sales organization and expanding their market partner ecosystem to expand their offering to smaller enterprises - which I believe is a good move but could potentially put them more in the way of existing solutions.</p>\n<p>C3.ai's IPO success has led to an eye-watering Price to Sales ratio (FWD) of 78.60, Palantir and JFrog have a Price to Sales of roughly 30. This does suggest that the market is heavily overvaluing C3.ai’s sales.</p>\n<p>C3.ai's go-to-market team comprises of 41 staff. With most technology companies, there is often atrade-off between Research and Development and Sales and Marketing Costs. Whilst C3.ai's sales ability has served them will to date, I believe they will be looking for further investment to help land sales deals. Of which, the average sales cycle is around six months.</p>\n<p>Whilst I don't see this as excessively long for the product and services C3.ai sells, it does put pressure on their existing 41 staff and limits the amount of opportunities they can handle at any one time.</p>\n<p>When looking at do it yourself type providers such as AWS, the time to first result is quite long for C3.ai. However, the solution is not as high-value, further investment in go-to-market should be aimed at decreasing their sales cycleto create a competitive advantage.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability and Growth</b></p>\n<p>C3.ai has experienced net losses for each period since their founding in 2009. In FY20, their net loss was $69.4m. This isn't particularly surprising for a technology growth company such as C3.ai, and we should expect these losses to continue for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0f378b9851e9b9bdf36f28fab217d37\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"684\"><span>Source: C3.ai S-1 Report</span></p>\n<p>Pleasingly C3.ai’s top-line revenue has increased 71% YoY, it’s unclear whether this is due to new customer growth or account expansion. Given C3.ai’s strategy of account expansion this is pleasing and goes somewhat to justifying the high Price to Sales ratio.</p>\n<p>Given there is an estimated large addressable market of $271m in 2024 we should hope to see this grow. From an efficiency perspective, C3.ai also have a healthy Gross Margin of 75.1%.</p>\n<p>Their ability to ever become profitable depends on increasing sales both through new customers and account expansion.</p>\n<p>Tom Siebel: The Helmsman</p>\n<p>At a management level, C3.ai has great leadership for a company of its age. At the helm as CEO we have Tom Siebel who is a seasoned Software Innovator who's managed rapidly growing software companies such as Oracle and Siebel Systems.</p>\n<p>Uncertainty caused by COVID has put a squeeze on the company's budgets, this is more pronounced for R&D and exploration spending. The flow on effect to C3.ai is that company's need more certainty that results will follow. This intuitively has two effects for C3.ai:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Potentially longer sales cycle as C3.ai sell the benefits of AI.</li>\n <li>Smaller contract values due to reduced appetite for AI.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Having said that, the Total Addressable Market for AI solutions is large and C3.ai has a first mover's advantage with full-service AI solutions. Siebel and his leadership team are incredibly experienced to help craft their niche and continue to grow their economic moat.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>C3.ai's value proposition is genuinely impressive and this is reflected with the high-value customers they have gained. With green-field opportunities and Tom Siebel at the helm, I'm very bullish on the company.</p>\n<p>However, there are factors against C3.ai with investment in Go-to-market teams needed and potentially slower sales ahead. Current price to sales ratio would imply that C3.ai is overvalued. For an ideal buy that minimizes risk, you may want to see a drop in current price. If increased risk is tolerable, C3.ai's current market position and growth prospects make it an attractive stock.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>C3.ai: An Interesting Prospect</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nC3.ai: An Interesting Prospect\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 14:13 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404209-c3-ai-interesting-prospect><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nC3.ai is a unique company offering full-service AI solutions to Enterprise level customers.\nWith a large addressable market and strong management, C3.ai is set to navigate an uncertain time.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404209-c3-ai-interesting-prospect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AI":"C3.ai, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404209-c3-ai-interesting-prospect","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1138482876","content_text":"Summary\n\nC3.ai is a unique company offering full-service AI solutions to Enterprise level customers.\nWith a large addressable market and strong management, C3.ai is set to navigate an uncertain time.\nInitial craze of C3.ai has led its current price to be slightly overvalued.\n\nC3.ai Inc.(NYSE:AI)is an artificial intelligence software company whose target customer are large enterprises. In 2020, C3.ai was one of the hottest tech IPOs originally IPOing for $42, quickly rising to $140 over the subsequent days. Since then, C3.ai has seen a rise in stock price.\nWith recent dips in C3.ai's price the question on many people's mind is is whether now is a good time to buy and where will the price go.\nData by YCharts\nIn this article, I break down C3.ai's unique position within the Artificial Intelligence sector and explain how it creates a compelling competitive advantage for C3.ai. C3.ai is a stock that should be attractive to many investors depending on their risk appetite.\nAI is still in Vogue\nA report from ARK Invest,says that deep learning could be the most important software breakthrough of our time. I mean, we’ve been saying that for years but let’s look at how it works and where C3.ai sits.\nTo me, there are 3 broad parts for an enterprise to successfully use AI:\n\nA business problem\nTechnology hardware\nSkills/models to achieve desired outcome.\n\nC3.ai is what I’d consider a ‘full service’ offering in that they solve the last two elements. More specifically C3.ai has three income streams:\n\nC3 AI Suite. Their core technology allowing customers to rapidly design, develop and deploy an Enterprise AI solution.\nC3 AI Applications. But on top of C3 AI Suite, C3 AI Applications includes turnkey AI solutions that can be used immediately.\nC3.ai Ex Machina. Their no-code solution that enables enterprises to more easily train AI models.\n\nWhat makes C3.ai unique when viewed against competitors is the ‘full service’ offering enabling easier access to AI for enterprise. However, C3.ai’s biggest competitors are those that they call technological partners, Google, AWS, and Microsoft are all cloud providers vying to increase their share in the full service AI market. For example AWS Sagemaker is a competing product to C3.ai Ex Machina.\nWhilst the 'full service' nature may appear quite novel for a company of C3.ai’s size, it comes as no surprise when considering major Customer Relationship Management companies such as Salesforce (CRM), Zendesk (ZEN) and other software are rapidly expanding their AI as a service type offering. The benefit of these companies over C3.ai is two-fold:\n\nAbility to specialize and dominate in a traditional vertical. Access to data is not typically an issue SaaS companies face.\nMore increased paths to a sale, for example a customer might sign up to Salesforce Service, then upgrade to Einstein Analytics.\n\nThe biggest downside to these competing companies is their ability to create bespoke solutions which is where C3.ai stands out. By creating bespoke high-value solutions,C3.ai boasts an impressive average contract value of $12.1 million for FY20.\nLead and Expand\nC3.ai adopts a 'lead and expand' style of sales wherein customers initially sign up for a lower contract value and then buy more services from C3.ai, so we can hope that C3.ai's account expansion is positive in the coming years.\nC3.ai's ACV has fallen from$16.m in FY19 to its current $12.1m in FY20. The company put this down to restructuring their sales organization and expanding their market partner ecosystem to expand their offering to smaller enterprises - which I believe is a good move but could potentially put them more in the way of existing solutions.\nC3.ai's IPO success has led to an eye-watering Price to Sales ratio (FWD) of 78.60, Palantir and JFrog have a Price to Sales of roughly 30. This does suggest that the market is heavily overvaluing C3.ai’s sales.\nC3.ai's go-to-market team comprises of 41 staff. With most technology companies, there is often atrade-off between Research and Development and Sales and Marketing Costs. Whilst C3.ai's sales ability has served them will to date, I believe they will be looking for further investment to help land sales deals. Of which, the average sales cycle is around six months.\nWhilst I don't see this as excessively long for the product and services C3.ai sells, it does put pressure on their existing 41 staff and limits the amount of opportunities they can handle at any one time.\nWhen looking at do it yourself type providers such as AWS, the time to first result is quite long for C3.ai. However, the solution is not as high-value, further investment in go-to-market should be aimed at decreasing their sales cycleto create a competitive advantage.\nProfitability and Growth\nC3.ai has experienced net losses for each period since their founding in 2009. In FY20, their net loss was $69.4m. This isn't particularly surprising for a technology growth company such as C3.ai, and we should expect these losses to continue for the foreseeable future.\nSource: C3.ai S-1 Report\nPleasingly C3.ai’s top-line revenue has increased 71% YoY, it’s unclear whether this is due to new customer growth or account expansion. Given C3.ai’s strategy of account expansion this is pleasing and goes somewhat to justifying the high Price to Sales ratio.\nGiven there is an estimated large addressable market of $271m in 2024 we should hope to see this grow. From an efficiency perspective, C3.ai also have a healthy Gross Margin of 75.1%.\nTheir ability to ever become profitable depends on increasing sales both through new customers and account expansion.\nTom Siebel: The Helmsman\nAt a management level, C3.ai has great leadership for a company of its age. At the helm as CEO we have Tom Siebel who is a seasoned Software Innovator who's managed rapidly growing software companies such as Oracle and Siebel Systems.\nUncertainty caused by COVID has put a squeeze on the company's budgets, this is more pronounced for R&D and exploration spending. The flow on effect to C3.ai is that company's need more certainty that results will follow. This intuitively has two effects for C3.ai:\n\nPotentially longer sales cycle as C3.ai sell the benefits of AI.\nSmaller contract values due to reduced appetite for AI.\n\nHaving said that, the Total Addressable Market for AI solutions is large and C3.ai has a first mover's advantage with full-service AI solutions. Siebel and his leadership team are incredibly experienced to help craft their niche and continue to grow their economic moat.\nConclusion\nC3.ai's value proposition is genuinely impressive and this is reflected with the high-value customers they have gained. With green-field opportunities and Tom Siebel at the helm, I'm very bullish on the company.\nHowever, there are factors against C3.ai with investment in Go-to-market teams needed and potentially slower sales ahead. Current price to sales ratio would imply that C3.ai is overvalued. For an ideal buy that minimizes risk, you may want to see a drop in current price. If increased risk is tolerable, C3.ai's current market position and growth prospects make it an attractive stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
