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面币思过
2021-04-06
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Ren Zeping's speech today: The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads
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21:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping's speech today: The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128854887","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"“未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。”“中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。”但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。","content":"<p><b>\"The best investment opportunities in the future are in China, and we are standing at the starting point of a new cycle. Because over the past 10 years, we have found the crux of China's problems, and because of some adjustments in the early stages, we have a very strong ability to execute.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Frankly speaking, since 2019, we have still been in a critical period, but many of our previous reform measures have entered a period of releasing their benefits.\"</b></p><p><b>\"China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the European and American economies have just emerged from the trough and are still quite fragile, and the pandemic is still a cause for concern, it still has a strong demand for monetary easing and stimulus.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Biden is now talking about where the $3 trillion will come from, and that he will raise corporate income taxes and tax the wealthy.\"</b></p><p><b>However, from a macroeconomic perspective, this logic does not make sense; $3 trillion is unlikely to be achieved through short-term taxation. In essence, the vast majority of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan was achieved through excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>\"The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, including gold, have been rising since last year, and the Bitcoin has also hit new highs, is that we have experienced an overabundance of dollar liquidity.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently because they are priced globally. China's CPI has not risen high, firstly because our monetary policy has normalized, and secondly because we are in the downward phase of the pig cycle. So the main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.\"</b></p><p><b>\"My understanding of modern monetary theory is that this may be an innovation in monetary finance, but it may be a major regression in macroeconomic thinking.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Future new infrastructure includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the technology field, represented by 5G, big data centers, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure projects in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as</b></p><p><b>And new infrastructure in institutional areas such as the business environment, the opening up of the service sector, and the construction of a multi-tiered capital market.</b></p><p><b>\"China will face an accelerated aging population in the next 10 years, which will be one of the biggest gray rhinos in China in the future.\"</b></p><p>The above is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Dongwu Securities</a>Chief Economist Ren Zeping shared his latest insightful views at the Dongwu Securities Macroeconomic Strategy Report Conference recently.</p><p>This strategy meeting marked Ren Zeping's first appearance since joining Dongwu Securities. Ren Zeping shared his views on China's economic transformation, the impact of global economic recovery and excessive dollar liquidity on the Chinese economy, as well as the four main contradictions and countermeasures it currently faces.</p><p>Smart Investors has compiled the full text of Ren Zeping's speech and is sharing it with you.</p><p>Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to share some of our views on China's future economic policies and markets in the most beautiful season and in the most beautiful city.</p><p><b>I am quite optimistic about the prospects for China's economic transformation.</b></p><p>I went into business in 2014 and put forward some views. As a long-time observer of the Chinese economy, I have traveled around the world over the years, first as a think tank at the State Council, and later as the chief economist at the world's largest real estate company. This time, I have returned to the capital market and the securities industry, and I would like to share some of our thoughts and observations on the Chinese economy.</p><p>Over the past few years, we have put forward some opinions and judgments every year. Fortunately, our judgments over the years have been generally acceptable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87d9c7b78c2913545af7eaeb0bcbc71c\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, in 2014, we proposed that the new 5% be better than the old 8%, and that 5000 points was not a dream; In 2015, we warned before the stock market crash that the altitude was high and the wind was strong, so take it slow. We also predicted that housing prices in first-tier cities would double and that there would be an L-shaped economy. A new cycle was proposed in 2017; In 2019, when the market was very pessimistic, we proposed that the best investment opportunity for the future would be in China.</p><p>In 2020, I advocated for new infrastructure, which later moved from academic discussion to national strategy. In the second half of last year, I advocated for liberalizing birth control. This time, I believe there will be significant adjustments to our birth and population policies in the future.</p><p>Over the years, I have also been thinking about what the mission of our generation of scholars is. I have always believed that a person's value depends on their value to others, to the institutions they serve, and to society.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, when the market was full of controversy, I suggested that the biggest logic or theme of the market this year should be inflation expectations.</p><p>Furthermore, regarding the real estate sector, I have proposed an analytical framework that focuses on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. This analytical framework is probably a widely circulated one in the real estate industry, including one used by large developers, many investors, and practitioners.</p><p>In general, as an economist and observer of the Chinese economy, although we rationally warned of risks during the market frenzy in 2015, for example. However, since 2014, I have been relatively optimistic among economists about the prospects for China's economic transformation.</p><p>Many people say that Dr. Ren is the biggest bull in China's economy and capital market. Standing at this point in time, when we look to the future, how do we truly understand the era we live in and our current economic situation?</p><p>I would like to share some of our observations and latest views with you from an objective, rational, professional, and independent perspective.</p><p><b>The new 5% is better than the old 8%</b></p><p><b>Don't worry about the slowdown in economic growth.</b></p><p><b>The most important thing is to improve the quality of growth</b></p><p>I will briefly discuss three aspects: first, China's medium- and long-term economic development trends; second, our current economic situation; and finally, the four major contradictions China is currently facing and how to deal with them.</p><p>First, the trend of China's economic development.</p><p>What kind of environment are we in? How can we recognize the characteristics of the environment and times we live in?</p><p>Over the past 10 years, China's economy has undergone a very significant change.</p><p>Over the past decade, and for the next decade, China's economic situation cannot be simply explained by economic fluctuations. Ten years ago, in the macroeconomic field, all mainstream economists participated in a major debate. China's economic growth rate has fallen from 14%, 10%, 9%, 8%, 7%, and now to 6%. What are the reasons for this continuous decline? How do we deal with this?</p><p>At the time, there were roughly two camps. One camp believed that the Chinese economy could return to high growth, so large-scale stimulus was needed to stimulate demand. Another view is what we proposed at the State Council's Development Center at the time: China's growth rate may be about to shift, and our way out is through reform to improve our total factor productivity and build a new growth platform and driving force mechanism.</p><p>This was the biggest debate in the macroeconomic field 10 years ago. Against that backdrop, when I went into business, I put forward the idea that the new 5% was better than the old 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1d1900d513ee51e74e970535a6e937\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I spent a considerable amount of time studying economic history, including economies in Latin America and Southeast Asia that fell into the middle-income trap, as well as countries such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan that have successfully transformed.</p><p>We have found that at a critical juncture in China's transition from a developing country to a developed country, if China's per capita GDP reaches $10,000, we will become a developed country by $12,600, which means we will be a developed country in the next 5 to 10 years.</p><p>However, many economies refused to slow down their growth rates and attempted to stimulate them back to a high-growth platform through monetary easing. As a result, they maintained the old growth model, triggered a major financial crisis, and ultimately fell into the so-called middle-income trap.</p><p>Latin American and many Southeast Asian economies have made such serious mistakes. Only a few, about 10%, such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, have successfully promoted reforms and adopted a reform-driven approach as they moved from developing economies to developed economies.</p><p><b>At that time, we proposed a shift in growth rate and that we must promote the reform of new energy sources, rather than a simple monetary stimulus, which could solve the problems posed to us by this era.</b></p><p>Why did I propose that the new 5% be better than the old 8%? It means everyone<b>Don't worry about the economic growth slowing down; the most important thing is to improve the quality of your growth.</b></p><p>The new 5% growth platform built through reforms in the future will be better than the old 8% growth platform that was barely maintained by itself in the past. Interest rates have come down, the stock market has gone bullish, industries have upgraded, corporate profits have increased, residents' lives have improved, and government prestige has increased. Reform is the only way out, but stimulus will brew a crisis.</p><p>The L-shaped economy is also what I proposed. The new normal is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development. These major assertions by the central government confirm the views advocated by our group of economists.</p><p>The reason why economists are optimistic about the prospects of China's economic reform and transformation in this round is firstly because in the past 10 years, our major debate in the macroeconomic field has solved a very important problem: understanding the problem, realizing that we need to slow down growth, and realizing that the new 5% is better than the old 8%. Although the future may not be high-speed growth, it will be high-quality development.</p><p>After we resolved the issue of understanding, our policies and reform measures over the years have been in place. At the time, I read nearly a hundred monographs to study the transformation experiences of countries like South Korea, Japan, and Germany, and I was very engrossed in this research.</p><p>The best textbook is actually economic history, because economics cannot be experimented with, but economic history can give us a lot of inspiration.</p><p><b>We are still in a critical phase.</b></p><p><b>However, many of the previous reform measures</b></p><p><b>The period of releasing dividends has entered.</b></p><p>Many people say that our policies invent a new term every year, which reflects a lack of sufficient observation and understanding of China.</p><p>In fact, these statements are precisely the result of our understanding of China's current problems and the continuous deepening of our countermeasures. As a frontline economist, I have a deep understanding of this.</p><p><b>China's current round of reforms is divided into three stages. The first stage is the process of forming reform expectations; The second stage is the painful period of implementation; The third stage is the release period of dividends.</b></p><p>The first stage was the period of formation and controversy regarding reform expectations, roughly from 2012 to 2015. The implementation and growing pains of these challenges were 2016, 2017, and 2018. At that time, the whole society, including our capital market, was filled with a very pessimistic atmosphere. There were talks of exiting the market and \"washing up and sleeping\" because we were in a period of growing pains.</p><p>In fact<b>Frankly speaking, since 2019, we have still been in a critical period, but many of our previous reform measures have entered a period of releasing their benefits.</b></p><p>A major turning point actually came at the end of 2015 when the central government proposed supply-side structural reform, which was of great transformative significance.</p><p>At that time, we proposed \"reducing overcapacity, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weaknesses,\" which included reducing overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and addressing Simply put, economics calls it \"breaking down the old and establishing the new.\" We need to break down the excess capacity, excessive inventory, and risks of financial leverage accumulated by past high growth.</p><p>Over the years, despite the Sino-US trade friction and the pandemic, China has not faced major financial risks because we have built a hedge against risks in advance and made preparations in advance.</p><p>Reducing costs and addressing shortcomings is what establishing a new foundation is all about. We are cultivating our own new economy, new technologies, and new industries. Later, we came to the three critical battles, including the dual circulation, which were all challenges that we were continuously deepening reforms to meet the challenges of the new 5% being better than the old 8% and high-quality development.</p><p>In fact, for example, promoting the registration-based IPO system reform, building a multi-tiered capital market, and relying on innovation to drive the high-quality development of the real economy are logically consistent.</p><p>Innovative development ultimately relies on the capital market. The traditional bank-led financing model is more suitable for our former era of heavy chemical industry. In the future, China will have a large number of venture capitalists and new economies, which will require a multi-tiered capital market.</p><p>This time, the capital market has risen to a very important position, including things like the registration-based IPO system reform and anti-monopoly measures. These are all logically consistent, such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, and high-level opening up to the outside world, which I will not go into detail about.</p><p>The general conclusion is that,<b>The best investment opportunities for the future lie in China, and we are standing at the starting point of a new cycle.</b>Over the past 10 years, we have identified the crux of China's problems and, thanks to some early adjustments, have acquired very strong execution capabilities.</p><p>This is the environmental context in which we live.</p><p><b>In 2021, we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery.</b></p><p>Now let me report to you on our current economic situation.</p><p>Without a doubt, China has taken the lead globally in fighting the pandemic and resuming production.</p><p>Our GDP growth rates for the four quarters of last year were -6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.5% respectively. What does 6.5% mean? China's GDP growth rate was 6.1% in 2019, and by the fourth quarter of last year, China had returned to its potential growth rate level.</p><p>Moreover, among the world's major economies, China was the only one to achieve positive growth last year.</p><p><b>Therefore, since 2019, we have begun to enjoy the benefits of reform, but this does not mean that the reform task has been completed.</b>We still face many challenges ahead, but the overall approach has been reversed.</p><p><b>A key feature of 2021 is that we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery.</b>。</p><p>China's economy recovered in the second quarter of last year. This year, with the large-scale vaccination rollout in the United States, Europe, and Japan, and Biden's upcoming $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, we may see a global recovery.</p><p>What does $3 trillion mean? In 2009, we provided a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package with 3 trillion US dollars, which was an infrastructure stimulus plan worth nearly 20 trillion yuan.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy</b></p><p><b>Europe and the United States still have strong demands for monetary easing and stimulus.</b></p><p>Because the recovery cycles of China, the United States, and Europe are different, China was the first to recover, while the United States and Europe only began to enter the recovery phase this year. As a result, everyone's policy mix and demands are different.</p><p>China is entering a cyclical turning point in broad liquidity as inflation expectations rise and the economy returns to potential growth rates. We are beginning to normalize monetary policy and tighten structural credit policies in areas such as real estate and local government debt.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, I proposed that China was reaching a liquidity turning point. At the time, everyone argued with this view, and this judgment has recently been verified.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the economies of Europe and the United States have just emerged from the trough and are still quite fragile, and the pandemic is still a cause for concern, it still has a strong demand for monetary easing and stimulus.</b></p><p>Therefore, the global economic recovery in Europe, the United States, and China has had different trajectories, leading to different policy demands. We have begun to normalize monetary policy, and Europe and the United States may still be in a phase of low interest rates and easy monetary stimulus, which has led to global inflation expectations.</p><p>If we were to choose a theme for the short-term macroeconomic situation in 2021, perhaps the biggest characteristic would be inflation expectations.</p><p>We are facing inflation expectations, including the resonance of the global economic recovery, Biden's plan to revitalize the United States, the launch of a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, and the flood of dollar liquidity.</p><p><b>Flood of dollar liquidity</b></p><p><b>China faces pressure from imported inflation</b></p><p>Why did we talk about the excessive liquidity of the US dollar at the end?</p><p><b>This time, Biden told the public where the $3 trillion would come from, and that he would raise corporate income taxes and tax the wealthy.</b></p><p><b>However, from a macroeconomic perspective, this logic does not make sense; $3 trillion is unlikely to be achieved through short-term taxation. In fact, the vast majority of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan was achieved through excessive money supply.</b></p><p>That's why I'm going to focus on this issue.</p><p>Many people say that this global inflation is due to a recovery in demand, which is far from sufficient to support such high inflation, including the formation of broad asset price bubbles.</p><p>The European and American economies are still on the floor, just showing signs of recovery. The US stock market has hit new highs, and housing prices on the two major coastlines have hit new highs. What are the reasons for this? Excessive money supply and excessive dollar liquidity.</p><p>Since the outbreak of the pandemic last year, the United States has launched QE, QQE, and unlimited QE, buying US Treasury Bond and even commercial bills by printing money.</p><p>Look at the yellow line. This yellow line represents the growth rate of US M2, which is the growth rate of the US broad money supply. This is the highest value in 20 years, and it is astonishingly high.</p><p>Later, I will talk about the dilemma and changes facing the entire field of macroeconomics. Either you continue down the path of monetary easing, with 63% of the world's foreign exchange reserves being in US dollars. The US's excessive issuance of US dollars is actually equivalent to sharing the costs with the whole world, but we cannot do that.</p><p>Because we are a non-reserve currency country, if China's currency is over-issued, it is actually shared by residents, or their cash flow assets are diluted.</p><p>This is<b>The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, and even gold have all risen since last year, and the Bitcoin has repeatedly hit new highs, is that we have experienced an overabundance of dollar liquidity.</b>This is the situation we are facing.</p><p>Gold is a physical currency, while Bitcoin is a supranational currency. The surge in gold and Bitcoin, including the significant rise in broad inflation, demonstrates public distrust of national sovereign fiat currencies represented by the US dollar. This has led to a significant increase in inflation expectations this year.</p><p>The concept of inflation is quite controversial in economics, but it tells a very common-sense story: inflation is a monetary phenomenon at any time and in any place. If more money is printed, something will always rise, and if there is a flood of money, commodities will generally rise.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, China has been promoting the normalization of monetary policy. As the Premier said at the Two Sessions, we did not issue too much money last year, so there is no need for us to make a sharp turn this year. Instead, we will implement the normalization of monetary policy. However, it is worth noting that because commodities are priced globally, although China's overall inflation is not high, the PPI and industrial product prices are rising.</p><p>The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently because they are globally priced, and China's CPI has not risen high. This is partly due to the normalization of our monetary policy, and partly because we are currently in the downward phase of the pig cycle.<b>The main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.</b></p><p><b>This economic recovery is a K-shaped recovery.</b></p><p><b>The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads</b></p><p>In this round of economic recovery, we are facing a very important new phenomenon called the K-shaped recovery. This is a topic that has been discussed a lot in the macroeconomic field recently.</p><p>In the past, economic recovery generally included U-shaped recovery and V-shaped recovery, which meant that against the backdrop of economic recovery, the situation of most people improved, overall income improved, and employment improved.</p><p>K-shaped recovery, on the other hand, means that some people are improving while others are getting worse. Although the overall economy is recovering, the stock and housing markets are rising, and the prices of various assets are rising, the situation of some people, or even most people, is actually getting worse.</p><p>Why did the K-shaped recovery occur? That brings us back to the global over-reliance on currencies.</p><p>I think<b>The global economy and macroeconomic policies have reached a crossroads.</b>I remember one year Dalio came to China to promote his new book, and he hired four people to endorse him, and I was one of them. He concluded by saying that the current income gap in the United States is very similar to that before the Great Depression, which consisted of financial crises, economic crises, social crises, political crises, and finally a military crisis—the outbreak of war.</p><p>According to this logic, its fundamental cause is not an economic problem, but a social problem, or rather, an income distribution problem.</p><p>In fact, the world faces similar challenges because over-reliance on currency has led to a K-shaped recovery and a widening wealth and income gap, which in turn has led to a series of trends such as populism and anti-globalization.</p><p><b>MMT may be an innovation in monetary finance.</b></p><p><b>However, this could be a major setback in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>History is very similar; it was a similar scene 100 years ago. What should we do when we stand at this crossroads? Economists need to provide solutions. Currently, there are two factions in the field of economics. One faction, represented by China, wants to return to the normalization of monetary policy, promote reforms, and improve total factor productivity.</p><p>The other school is MMT, Modern Monetary Theory. Simply put, its concept is that taxation determines the issuance of currency. As long as national sovereignty is not a problem, there can be no upper limit to the issuance of currency. In other words, there should be no upper limit to government debt and it can continue to circulate indefinitely through government bond issuance, including the issuance of currency.</p><p>This is the modern monetary theory that everyone is talking about now. It really has gone too far down the path of monetary stimulus. My understanding of modern monetary theory is...<b>This may be an innovation in monetary finance, but it could be a major setback in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>However, we are fortunate that China did not choose this theory, so last year the mainstream public policy voice in China was critical of MMT.</p><p>When it comes to views on major asset classes, the clues are very clear. As a veteran researcher who has analyzed the macroeconomic situation for 20 years, I believe that in the end, we must return to the most fundamental logic. The main logic behind this year's economic situation is inflation expectations, which means that the beneficiaries this year will definitely be undervalued stocks with price increase expectations.</p><p>Therefore, these are the companies that have performed well in the market recently. Those with high valuations over the past two years have been driving down valuations due to rising interest rates. In the end, these basic logics all hold true.</p><p><b>The Sino-US trade friction is long-term and severe.</b></p><p>Finally, I would like to talk about the four major contradictions we are currently facing and their countermeasures.</p><p><b>The biggest contradiction is undoubtedly the Sino-US trade friction, which is what we call a major change unseen in a century.</b></p><p>What is the essence of the Sino-US trade friction?</p><p>Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy is now 70% of that of the United States, and more importantly, it is still growing at a rate of 5 to 6%, which is 2 to 3 times the potential growth rate of the United States. If this trend continues, around 2030, China's economy will surpass that of the United States and become the world's largest economy.</p><p>For every Chinese person, this means the day when the Chinese nation will return to the top of the world. Moreover, we are fortunate to have caught up with the tide of the times, and we can see history. However, looking at the history of the world economy, more than 100 years ago, since the United States surpassed Britain to become the world's largest economy, no one has surpassed it.</p><p>Two challengers emerged, the former Soviet Union and Japan, both of which engaged in conflicts with the United States, not simply in the trade sphere, but also in geopolitical, ideological, financial, and even military confrontations.</p><p>China will once again become the world's largest economy in 7 to 10 years. What will happen during this time? The answer is very clear.<b>The essence of the Sino-US trade friction is to curb the rise of emerging powers by incumbent hegemonic countries; it is long-term and severe. Our best response is to promote a new round of reform and opening up with greater courage and remain steadfast. We must remain clear-headed, calm, and strategically focused in this regard.</b></p><p>However, I also strongly agree with the appeal of an elder, Mr. Kissinger: for world peace and long-term prosperity, China and the United States must engage in more dialogue and exchanges, and both sides must make adjustments, because the entire world governance landscape has undergone profound changes.</p><p>From the United States' perspective, the United States needs to adjust its mindset over the next decade to accept a rising China that is integrated into globalization. China also needs to adjust its mindset. Once we become strong, we must assume global responsibilities and respect the global rules of the game.</p><p><b>Future new infrastructure includes three major areas.</b></p><p>The second major contradiction is innovative development.</p><p>In the past, we relied on demographic dividends, factor dividends, and other factors to achieve high growth. In the future, we need innovation-driven development to achieve high-quality development. In this regard, I strongly advocate for new infrastructure. In recent years, the new infrastructure I advocate has moved from academic discussion to national strategy. As a scholar, this is my greatest contribution.</p><p><b>In the short term, new infrastructure will help expand demand and stabilize growth and employment; in the long term, it will help cultivate China's new technologies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300832\">New industry</a>With the new economy, we will create a new engine for China's economy.</b></p><p>Over the past 40 years, China has been a beneficiary of large-scale, advanced infrastructure construction. Why has India failed to seize the benefits of globalization while China has? A very important reason is infrastructure construction.</p><p><b>Future new infrastructure includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the technology field, represented by 5G, big data centers, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure projects in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as</b></p><p><b>In addition, new infrastructure in institutional areas such as the business environment, the opening up of the service sector, and the construction of a multi-tiered capital market.</b></p><p><b>China will face an aging population</b></p><p><b>This will be one of the largest gray rhinos in the future.</b></p><p><b>The third major contradiction is that China will face an accelerated aging population in the next 10 years, which will be one of the biggest gray rhinos in China in the future.</b></p><p>In the past 20 or 30 years, people didn't need to worry about population aging at all, but in the next 10 years, it will be a major event. Because China's baby boom occurred between 1962 and 1976, we benefited from the demographic dividend of this baby boom. China's high growth in the past was achieved by the hard work of this group of people when they were young, which was combined with the dividends of globalization.</p><p>But these people born in 1962 are now 59 years old and will retire next year.</p><p>This is why public policy is discussing extending retirement, because without policy adjustments, people born during China's future baby boom will accelerate their exit from the labor market—which is not my focus.</p><p><b>The key point is that China's aging population is not arriving slowly like in Europe and the United States. Because China has one-child policy, China's population aging will arrive and accelerate in the next 5 to 10 years.</b></p><p>Therefore, the 14th Five-Year Plan, including this government work report, proposed to elevate the response to population aging to a national strategy, because we are still in the stage of aging before becoming rich. Europe, the United States and Japan only started population aging after entering developed countries, and our per capita GDP has just exceeded US$10,000, so we are facing the challenge of aging. Therefore, I also call for the relaxation of birth control.</p><p>From the perspective of development trends, the speed and scale of China's population aging are unprecedented. In 2022, we will see a deeply aging society; in 2033, we will see a super-aging society; and by 2060, one in three people will be over 65 years old, while also facing the problem of a declining birthrate.</p><p>What problems will population aging bring?</p><p>The potential growth rate of China's economy will decline; Rising labor costs; The investment rate and savings rate declined; The social dependency ratio and the burden of elderly care are increasing; Government debt and social security pressures will rise, and more importantly, social vitality will decline.</p><p>Therefore, to address the challenges of population aging and declining birth rate, we must liberalize birth control as soon as possible, allow reproductive rights to return to families, accelerate the construction of a birth support system, and at the same time actively address population aging and build an age-friendly society. This is a major challenge we face.</p><p><b>The fundamental problems in the real estate market are the mismatch between people and land and excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>The fourth major contradiction is our toughest bubble—the real estate market.</b></p><p>As I mentioned before, the real estate market depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. We studied the real estate and housing systems of more than a dozen representative economies over the past century. The basic conclusion is that the housing system determines the real estate market. The system is its gene, and the gene has a very strong self-reproductive ability.</p><p>China's real estate market has reached its current state because our housing reforms were modeled after Hong Kong, which in turn modeled after the UK—both economies have high housing prices.</p><p>Strictly speaking, Hong Kong's housing reform is a lesson, far from a successful experience. The real estate policies of the United States and Japan were also unsuccessful because excessive money supply led to severe asset price bubbles and financial risks.</p><p>Which countries have successfully implemented real estate reform? Germany and Singapore, they engage in leasing, including strong control over their currencies.</p><p><b>Based on our research on international experience, we believe that the key to the long-term stable and healthy development of China's real estate market lies in the linkage between people and land and financial stability. People are demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.</b></p><p>Frankly speaking, our understanding and academic discussion of real estate are still far from truly solving the problem. The real estate chaos we have seen in the past year or two is not surprising at all within our research framework.</p><p>The fundamental problems in China's real estate market are the mismatch between people and land and the excessive money supply in the past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56ae95a7634a2c80c80e346c17e78a6\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, our approach of controlling large cities, developing small and medium-sized towns, and achieving balanced regional development based on the thinking of a planned economy was wrong. This approach led to the concentration of people in large metropolitan areas, but the lack of land quotas led to a mismatch between people and land, high housing prices in first- and second-tier cities, and high inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities—this is completely solvable.</p><p>From an economic and technological perspective, as a scholar, I can responsibly explain this to everyone.<b>There's still a solution to the current situation in China's real estate market; we still have ten years left.</b>However, we need to address the issue of understanding first, which is the main point of my report.</p><p><b>Taking the seven major reforms as a breakthrough</b></p><p><b>China will embark on a new cycle and a new development pattern.</b></p><p>With the seven major reforms as a breakthrough point, we believe that China will usher in a new cycle and a new development pattern.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27ea5fe7412ff498dda305649bad3b8\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The seven major reforms include—</p><p>The first is new infrastructure;</p><p>Secondly, there is the urbanization of metropolitan areas and urban clusters where people and land are linked and factors flow;</p><p>Third, liberalize the birth rate;</p><p>Fourth, it is necessary to connect the dual circulation of the capital market and technological innovation;</p><p>Fifth, large-scale tax and fee reductions;</p><p>Sixth, we should take the Sino-US trade friction as an opportunity to promote a new round of reform and opening up;</p><p>Seventh, establish our new nation-building strategy. What is a nation-building strategy? It is a strategy similar to the \"keep a low profile and bide our time\" strategy that we have benefited from over the past 40 years. Against the backdrop of seeing the trends and directions of the world economy in the coming decades, we have formulated a strategy that is beneficial to us in the long run. We are now in a period of strategic transformation.</p><p>These are the main points I would like to share with you today. We are undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and at the same time, we are also ushering in great opportunities unseen in a century. We firmly believe that with the implementation of a new round of reform and opening up and the release of future reform dividends, as long-term optimists of China's economy and capital market, we believe that the best investment opportunities in the future lie in China. Thank you!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping's speech today: The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping's speech today: The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-06 21:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>\"The best investment opportunities in the future are in China, and we are standing at the starting point of a new cycle. Because over the past 10 years, we have found the crux of China's problems, and because of some adjustments in the early stages, we have a very strong ability to execute.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Frankly speaking, since 2019, we have still been in a critical period, but many of our previous reform measures have entered a period of releasing their benefits.\"</b></p><p><b>\"China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the European and American economies have just emerged from the trough and are still quite fragile, and the pandemic is still a cause for concern, it still has a strong demand for monetary easing and stimulus.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Biden is now talking about where the $3 trillion will come from, and that he will raise corporate income taxes and tax the wealthy.\"</b></p><p><b>However, from a macroeconomic perspective, this logic does not make sense; $3 trillion is unlikely to be achieved through short-term taxation. In essence, the vast majority of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan was achieved through excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>\"The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, including gold, have been rising since last year, and the Bitcoin has also hit new highs, is that we have experienced an overabundance of dollar liquidity.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently because they are priced globally. China's CPI has not risen high, firstly because our monetary policy has normalized, and secondly because we are in the downward phase of the pig cycle. So the main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.\"</b></p><p><b>\"My understanding of modern monetary theory is that this may be an innovation in monetary finance, but it may be a major regression in macroeconomic thinking.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Future new infrastructure includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the technology field, represented by 5G, big data centers, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure projects in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as</b></p><p><b>And new infrastructure in institutional areas such as the business environment, the opening up of the service sector, and the construction of a multi-tiered capital market.</b></p><p><b>\"China will face an accelerated aging population in the next 10 years, which will be one of the biggest gray rhinos in China in the future.\"</b></p><p>The above is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Dongwu Securities</a>Chief Economist Ren Zeping shared his latest insightful views at the Dongwu Securities Macroeconomic Strategy Report Conference recently.</p><p>This strategy meeting marked Ren Zeping's first appearance since joining Dongwu Securities. Ren Zeping shared his views on China's economic transformation, the impact of global economic recovery and excessive dollar liquidity on the Chinese economy, as well as the four main contradictions and countermeasures it currently faces.</p><p>Smart Investors has compiled the full text of Ren Zeping's speech and is sharing it with you.</p><p>Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to share some of our views on China's future economic policies and markets in the most beautiful season and in the most beautiful city.</p><p><b>I am quite optimistic about the prospects for China's economic transformation.</b></p><p>I went into business in 2014 and put forward some views. As a long-time observer of the Chinese economy, I have traveled around the world over the years, first as a think tank at the State Council, and later as the chief economist at the world's largest real estate company. This time, I have returned to the capital market and the securities industry, and I would like to share some of our thoughts and observations on the Chinese economy.</p><p>Over the past few years, we have put forward some opinions and judgments every year. Fortunately, our judgments over the years have been generally acceptable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87d9c7b78c2913545af7eaeb0bcbc71c\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, in 2014, we proposed that the new 5% be better than the old 8%, and that 5000 points was not a dream; In 2015, we warned before the stock market crash that the altitude was high and the wind was strong, so take it slow. We also predicted that housing prices in first-tier cities would double and that there would be an L-shaped economy. A new cycle was proposed in 2017; In 2019, when the market was very pessimistic, we proposed that the best investment opportunity for the future would be in China.</p><p>In 2020, I advocated for new infrastructure, which later moved from academic discussion to national strategy. In the second half of last year, I advocated for liberalizing birth control. This time, I believe there will be significant adjustments to our birth and population policies in the future.</p><p>Over the years, I have also been thinking about what the mission of our generation of scholars is. I have always believed that a person's value depends on their value to others, to the institutions they serve, and to society.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, when the market was full of controversy, I suggested that the biggest logic or theme of the market this year should be inflation expectations.</p><p>Furthermore, regarding the real estate sector, I have proposed an analytical framework that focuses on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. This analytical framework is probably a widely circulated one in the real estate industry, including one used by large developers, many investors, and practitioners.</p><p>In general, as an economist and observer of the Chinese economy, although we rationally warned of risks during the market frenzy in 2015, for example. However, since 2014, I have been relatively optimistic among economists about the prospects for China's economic transformation.</p><p>Many people say that Dr. Ren is the biggest bull in China's economy and capital market. Standing at this point in time, when we look to the future, how do we truly understand the era we live in and our current economic situation?</p><p>I would like to share some of our observations and latest views with you from an objective, rational, professional, and independent perspective.</p><p><b>The new 5% is better than the old 8%</b></p><p><b>Don't worry about the slowdown in economic growth.</b></p><p><b>The most important thing is to improve the quality of growth</b></p><p>I will briefly discuss three aspects: first, China's medium- and long-term economic development trends; second, our current economic situation; and finally, the four major contradictions China is currently facing and how to deal with them.</p><p>First, the trend of China's economic development.</p><p>What kind of environment are we in? How can we recognize the characteristics of the environment and times we live in?</p><p>Over the past 10 years, China's economy has undergone a very significant change.</p><p>Over the past decade, and for the next decade, China's economic situation cannot be simply explained by economic fluctuations. Ten years ago, in the macroeconomic field, all mainstream economists participated in a major debate. China's economic growth rate has fallen from 14%, 10%, 9%, 8%, 7%, and now to 6%. What are the reasons for this continuous decline? How do we deal with this?</p><p>At the time, there were roughly two camps. One camp believed that the Chinese economy could return to high growth, so large-scale stimulus was needed to stimulate demand. Another view is what we proposed at the State Council's Development Center at the time: China's growth rate may be about to shift, and our way out is through reform to improve our total factor productivity and build a new growth platform and driving force mechanism.</p><p>This was the biggest debate in the macroeconomic field 10 years ago. Against that backdrop, when I went into business, I put forward the idea that the new 5% was better than the old 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1d1900d513ee51e74e970535a6e937\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I spent a considerable amount of time studying economic history, including economies in Latin America and Southeast Asia that fell into the middle-income trap, as well as countries such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan that have successfully transformed.</p><p>We have found that at a critical juncture in China's transition from a developing country to a developed country, if China's per capita GDP reaches $10,000, we will become a developed country by $12,600, which means we will be a developed country in the next 5 to 10 years.</p><p>However, many economies refused to slow down their growth rates and attempted to stimulate them back to a high-growth platform through monetary easing. As a result, they maintained the old growth model, triggered a major financial crisis, and ultimately fell into the so-called middle-income trap.</p><p>Latin American and many Southeast Asian economies have made such serious mistakes. Only a few, about 10%, such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, have successfully promoted reforms and adopted a reform-driven approach as they moved from developing economies to developed economies.</p><p><b>At that time, we proposed a shift in growth rate and that we must promote the reform of new energy sources, rather than a simple monetary stimulus, which could solve the problems posed to us by this era.</b></p><p>Why did I propose that the new 5% be better than the old 8%? It means everyone<b>Don't worry about the economic growth slowing down; the most important thing is to improve the quality of your growth.</b></p><p>The new 5% growth platform built through reforms in the future will be better than the old 8% growth platform that was barely maintained by itself in the past. Interest rates have come down, the stock market has gone bullish, industries have upgraded, corporate profits have increased, residents' lives have improved, and government prestige has increased. Reform is the only way out, but stimulus will brew a crisis.</p><p>The L-shaped economy is also what I proposed. The new normal is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development. These major assertions by the central government confirm the views advocated by our group of economists.</p><p>The reason why economists are optimistic about the prospects of China's economic reform and transformation in this round is firstly because in the past 10 years, our major debate in the macroeconomic field has solved a very important problem: understanding the problem, realizing that we need to slow down growth, and realizing that the new 5% is better than the old 8%. Although the future may not be high-speed growth, it will be high-quality development.</p><p>After we resolved the issue of understanding, our policies and reform measures over the years have been in place. At the time, I read nearly a hundred monographs to study the transformation experiences of countries like South Korea, Japan, and Germany, and I was very engrossed in this research.</p><p>The best textbook is actually economic history, because economics cannot be experimented with, but economic history can give us a lot of inspiration.</p><p><b>We are still in a critical phase.</b></p><p><b>However, many of the previous reform measures</b></p><p><b>The period of releasing dividends has entered.</b></p><p>Many people say that our policies invent a new term every year, which reflects a lack of sufficient observation and understanding of China.</p><p>In fact, these statements are precisely the result of our understanding of China's current problems and the continuous deepening of our countermeasures. As a frontline economist, I have a deep understanding of this.</p><p><b>China's current round of reforms is divided into three stages. The first stage is the process of forming reform expectations; The second stage is the painful period of implementation; The third stage is the release period of dividends.</b></p><p>The first stage was the period of formation and controversy regarding reform expectations, roughly from 2012 to 2015. The implementation and growing pains of these challenges were 2016, 2017, and 2018. At that time, the whole society, including our capital market, was filled with a very pessimistic atmosphere. There were talks of exiting the market and \"washing up and sleeping\" because we were in a period of growing pains.</p><p>In fact<b>Frankly speaking, since 2019, we have still been in a critical period, but many of our previous reform measures have entered a period of releasing their benefits.</b></p><p>A major turning point actually came at the end of 2015 when the central government proposed supply-side structural reform, which was of great transformative significance.</p><p>At that time, we proposed \"reducing overcapacity, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weaknesses,\" which included reducing overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and addressing Simply put, economics calls it \"breaking down the old and establishing the new.\" We need to break down the excess capacity, excessive inventory, and risks of financial leverage accumulated by past high growth.</p><p>Over the years, despite the Sino-US trade friction and the pandemic, China has not faced major financial risks because we have built a hedge against risks in advance and made preparations in advance.</p><p>Reducing costs and addressing shortcomings is what establishing a new foundation is all about. We are cultivating our own new economy, new technologies, and new industries. Later, we came to the three critical battles, including the dual circulation, which were all challenges that we were continuously deepening reforms to meet the challenges of the new 5% being better than the old 8% and high-quality development.</p><p>In fact, for example, promoting the registration-based IPO system reform, building a multi-tiered capital market, and relying on innovation to drive the high-quality development of the real economy are logically consistent.</p><p>Innovative development ultimately relies on the capital market. The traditional bank-led financing model is more suitable for our former era of heavy chemical industry. In the future, China will have a large number of venture capitalists and new economies, which will require a multi-tiered capital market.</p><p>This time, the capital market has risen to a very important position, including things like the registration-based IPO system reform and anti-monopoly measures. These are all logically consistent, such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, and high-level opening up to the outside world, which I will not go into detail about.</p><p>The general conclusion is that,<b>The best investment opportunities for the future lie in China, and we are standing at the starting point of a new cycle.</b>Over the past 10 years, we have identified the crux of China's problems and, thanks to some early adjustments, have acquired very strong execution capabilities.</p><p>This is the environmental context in which we live.</p><p><b>In 2021, we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery.</b></p><p>Now let me report to you on our current economic situation.</p><p>Without a doubt, China has taken the lead globally in fighting the pandemic and resuming production.</p><p>Our GDP growth rates for the four quarters of last year were -6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.5% respectively. What does 6.5% mean? China's GDP growth rate was 6.1% in 2019, and by the fourth quarter of last year, China had returned to its potential growth rate level.</p><p>Moreover, among the world's major economies, China was the only one to achieve positive growth last year.</p><p><b>Therefore, since 2019, we have begun to enjoy the benefits of reform, but this does not mean that the reform task has been completed.</b>We still face many challenges ahead, but the overall approach has been reversed.</p><p><b>A key feature of 2021 is that we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery.</b>。</p><p>China's economy recovered in the second quarter of last year. This year, with the large-scale vaccination rollout in the United States, Europe, and Japan, and Biden's upcoming $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, we may see a global recovery.</p><p>What does $3 trillion mean? In 2009, we provided a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package with 3 trillion US dollars, which was an infrastructure stimulus plan worth nearly 20 trillion yuan.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy</b></p><p><b>Europe and the United States still have strong demands for monetary easing and stimulus.</b></p><p>Because the recovery cycles of China, the United States, and Europe are different, China was the first to recover, while the United States and Europe only began to enter the recovery phase this year. As a result, everyone's policy mix and demands are different.</p><p>China is entering a cyclical turning point in broad liquidity as inflation expectations rise and the economy returns to potential growth rates. We are beginning to normalize monetary policy and tighten structural credit policies in areas such as real estate and local government debt.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, I proposed that China was reaching a liquidity turning point. At the time, everyone argued with this view, and this judgment has recently been verified.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the economies of Europe and the United States have just emerged from the trough and are still quite fragile, and the pandemic is still a cause for concern, it still has a strong demand for monetary easing and stimulus.</b></p><p>Therefore, the global economic recovery in Europe, the United States, and China has had different trajectories, leading to different policy demands. We have begun to normalize monetary policy, and Europe and the United States may still be in a phase of low interest rates and easy monetary stimulus, which has led to global inflation expectations.</p><p>If we were to choose a theme for the short-term macroeconomic situation in 2021, perhaps the biggest characteristic would be inflation expectations.</p><p>We are facing inflation expectations, including the resonance of the global economic recovery, Biden's plan to revitalize the United States, the launch of a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, and the flood of dollar liquidity.</p><p><b>Flood of dollar liquidity</b></p><p><b>China faces pressure from imported inflation</b></p><p>Why did we talk about the excessive liquidity of the US dollar at the end?</p><p><b>This time, Biden told the public where the $3 trillion would come from, and that he would raise corporate income taxes and tax the wealthy.</b></p><p><b>However, from a macroeconomic perspective, this logic does not make sense; $3 trillion is unlikely to be achieved through short-term taxation. In fact, the vast majority of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan was achieved through excessive money supply.</b></p><p>That's why I'm going to focus on this issue.</p><p>Many people say that this global inflation is due to a recovery in demand, which is far from sufficient to support such high inflation, including the formation of broad asset price bubbles.</p><p>The European and American economies are still on the floor, just showing signs of recovery. The US stock market has hit new highs, and housing prices on the two major coastlines have hit new highs. What are the reasons for this? Excessive money supply and excessive dollar liquidity.</p><p>Since the outbreak of the pandemic last year, the United States has launched QE, QQE, and unlimited QE, buying US Treasury Bond and even commercial bills by printing money.</p><p>Look at the yellow line. This yellow line represents the growth rate of US M2, which is the growth rate of the US broad money supply. This is the highest value in 20 years, and it is astonishingly high.</p><p>Later, I will talk about the dilemma and changes facing the entire field of macroeconomics. Either you continue down the path of monetary easing, with 63% of the world's foreign exchange reserves being in US dollars. The US's excessive issuance of US dollars is actually equivalent to sharing the costs with the whole world, but we cannot do that.</p><p>Because we are a non-reserve currency country, if China's currency is over-issued, it is actually shared by residents, or their cash flow assets are diluted.</p><p>This is<b>The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, and even gold have all risen since last year, and the Bitcoin has repeatedly hit new highs, is that we have experienced an overabundance of dollar liquidity.</b>This is the situation we are facing.</p><p>Gold is a physical currency, while Bitcoin is a supranational currency. The surge in gold and Bitcoin, including the significant rise in broad inflation, demonstrates public distrust of national sovereign fiat currencies represented by the US dollar. This has led to a significant increase in inflation expectations this year.</p><p>The concept of inflation is quite controversial in economics, but it tells a very common-sense story: inflation is a monetary phenomenon at any time and in any place. If more money is printed, something will always rise, and if there is a flood of money, commodities will generally rise.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, China has been promoting the normalization of monetary policy. As the Premier said at the Two Sessions, we did not issue too much money last year, so there is no need for us to make a sharp turn this year. Instead, we will implement the normalization of monetary policy. However, it is worth noting that because commodities are priced globally, although China's overall inflation is not high, the PPI and industrial product prices are rising.</p><p>The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently because they are globally priced, and China's CPI has not risen high. This is partly due to the normalization of our monetary policy, and partly because we are currently in the downward phase of the pig cycle.<b>The main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.</b></p><p><b>This economic recovery is a K-shaped recovery.</b></p><p><b>The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads</b></p><p>In this round of economic recovery, we are facing a very important new phenomenon called the K-shaped recovery. This is a topic that has been discussed a lot in the macroeconomic field recently.</p><p>In the past, economic recovery generally included U-shaped recovery and V-shaped recovery, which meant that against the backdrop of economic recovery, the situation of most people improved, overall income improved, and employment improved.</p><p>K-shaped recovery, on the other hand, means that some people are improving while others are getting worse. Although the overall economy is recovering, the stock and housing markets are rising, and the prices of various assets are rising, the situation of some people, or even most people, is actually getting worse.</p><p>Why did the K-shaped recovery occur? That brings us back to the global over-reliance on currencies.</p><p>I think<b>The global economy and macroeconomic policies have reached a crossroads.</b>I remember one year Dalio came to China to promote his new book, and he hired four people to endorse him, and I was one of them. He concluded by saying that the current income gap in the United States is very similar to that before the Great Depression, which consisted of financial crises, economic crises, social crises, political crises, and finally a military crisis—the outbreak of war.</p><p>According to this logic, its fundamental cause is not an economic problem, but a social problem, or rather, an income distribution problem.</p><p>In fact, the world faces similar challenges because over-reliance on currency has led to a K-shaped recovery and a widening wealth and income gap, which in turn has led to a series of trends such as populism and anti-globalization.</p><p><b>MMT may be an innovation in monetary finance.</b></p><p><b>However, this could be a major setback in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>History is very similar; it was a similar scene 100 years ago. What should we do when we stand at this crossroads? Economists need to provide solutions. Currently, there are two factions in the field of economics. One faction, represented by China, wants to return to the normalization of monetary policy, promote reforms, and improve total factor productivity.</p><p>The other school is MMT, Modern Monetary Theory. Simply put, its concept is that taxation determines the issuance of currency. As long as national sovereignty is not a problem, there can be no upper limit to the issuance of currency. In other words, there should be no upper limit to government debt and it can continue to circulate indefinitely through government bond issuance, including the issuance of currency.</p><p>This is the modern monetary theory that everyone is talking about now. It really has gone too far down the path of monetary stimulus. My understanding of modern monetary theory is...<b>This may be an innovation in monetary finance, but it could be a major setback in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>However, we are fortunate that China did not choose this theory, so last year the mainstream public policy voice in China was critical of MMT.</p><p>When it comes to views on major asset classes, the clues are very clear. As a veteran researcher who has analyzed the macroeconomic situation for 20 years, I believe that in the end, we must return to the most fundamental logic. The main logic behind this year's economic situation is inflation expectations, which means that the beneficiaries this year will definitely be undervalued stocks with price increase expectations.</p><p>Therefore, these are the companies that have performed well in the market recently. Those with high valuations over the past two years have been driving down valuations due to rising interest rates. In the end, these basic logics all hold true.</p><p><b>The Sino-US trade friction is long-term and severe.</b></p><p>Finally, I would like to talk about the four major contradictions we are currently facing and their countermeasures.</p><p><b>The biggest contradiction is undoubtedly the Sino-US trade friction, which is what we call a major change unseen in a century.</b></p><p>What is the essence of the Sino-US trade friction?</p><p>Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy is now 70% of that of the United States, and more importantly, it is still growing at a rate of 5 to 6%, which is 2 to 3 times the potential growth rate of the United States. If this trend continues, around 2030, China's economy will surpass that of the United States and become the world's largest economy.</p><p>For every Chinese person, this means the day when the Chinese nation will return to the top of the world. Moreover, we are fortunate to have caught up with the tide of the times, and we can see history. However, looking at the history of the world economy, more than 100 years ago, since the United States surpassed Britain to become the world's largest economy, no one has surpassed it.</p><p>Two challengers emerged, the former Soviet Union and Japan, both of which engaged in conflicts with the United States, not simply in the trade sphere, but also in geopolitical, ideological, financial, and even military confrontations.</p><p>China will once again become the world's largest economy in 7 to 10 years. What will happen during this time? The answer is very clear.<b>The essence of the Sino-US trade friction is to curb the rise of emerging powers by incumbent hegemonic countries; it is long-term and severe. Our best response is to promote a new round of reform and opening up with greater courage and remain steadfast. We must remain clear-headed, calm, and strategically focused in this regard.</b></p><p>However, I also strongly agree with the appeal of an elder, Mr. Kissinger: for world peace and long-term prosperity, China and the United States must engage in more dialogue and exchanges, and both sides must make adjustments, because the entire world governance landscape has undergone profound changes.</p><p>From the United States' perspective, the United States needs to adjust its mindset over the next decade to accept a rising China that is integrated into globalization. China also needs to adjust its mindset. Once we become strong, we must assume global responsibilities and respect the global rules of the game.</p><p><b>Future new infrastructure includes three major areas.</b></p><p>The second major contradiction is innovative development.</p><p>In the past, we relied on demographic dividends, factor dividends, and other factors to achieve high growth. In the future, we need innovation-driven development to achieve high-quality development. In this regard, I strongly advocate for new infrastructure. In recent years, the new infrastructure I advocate has moved from academic discussion to national strategy. As a scholar, this is my greatest contribution.</p><p><b>In the short term, new infrastructure will help expand demand and stabilize growth and employment; in the long term, it will help cultivate China's new technologies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300832\">New industry</a>With the new economy, we will create a new engine for China's economy.</b></p><p>Over the past 40 years, China has been a beneficiary of large-scale, advanced infrastructure construction. Why has India failed to seize the benefits of globalization while China has? A very important reason is infrastructure construction.</p><p><b>Future new infrastructure includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the technology field, represented by 5G, big data centers, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure projects in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as</b></p><p><b>In addition, new infrastructure in institutional areas such as the business environment, the opening up of the service sector, and the construction of a multi-tiered capital market.</b></p><p><b>China will face an aging population</b></p><p><b>This will be one of the largest gray rhinos in the future.</b></p><p><b>The third major contradiction is that China will face an accelerated aging population in the next 10 years, which will be one of the biggest gray rhinos in China in the future.</b></p><p>In the past 20 or 30 years, people didn't need to worry about population aging at all, but in the next 10 years, it will be a major event. Because China's baby boom occurred between 1962 and 1976, we benefited from the demographic dividend of this baby boom. China's high growth in the past was achieved by the hard work of this group of people when they were young, which was combined with the dividends of globalization.</p><p>But these people born in 1962 are now 59 years old and will retire next year.</p><p>This is why public policy is discussing extending retirement, because without policy adjustments, people born during China's future baby boom will accelerate their exit from the labor market—which is not my focus.</p><p><b>The key point is that China's aging population is not arriving slowly like in Europe and the United States. Because China has one-child policy, China's population aging will arrive and accelerate in the next 5 to 10 years.</b></p><p>Therefore, the 14th Five-Year Plan, including this government work report, proposed to elevate the response to population aging to a national strategy, because we are still in the stage of aging before becoming rich. Europe, the United States and Japan only started population aging after entering developed countries, and our per capita GDP has just exceeded US$10,000, so we are facing the challenge of aging. Therefore, I also call for the relaxation of birth control.</p><p>From the perspective of development trends, the speed and scale of China's population aging are unprecedented. In 2022, we will see a deeply aging society; in 2033, we will see a super-aging society; and by 2060, one in three people will be over 65 years old, while also facing the problem of a declining birthrate.</p><p>What problems will population aging bring?</p><p>The potential growth rate of China's economy will decline; Rising labor costs; The investment rate and savings rate declined; The social dependency ratio and the burden of elderly care are increasing; Government debt and social security pressures will rise, and more importantly, social vitality will decline.</p><p>Therefore, to address the challenges of population aging and declining birth rate, we must liberalize birth control as soon as possible, allow reproductive rights to return to families, accelerate the construction of a birth support system, and at the same time actively address population aging and build an age-friendly society. This is a major challenge we face.</p><p><b>The fundamental problems in the real estate market are the mismatch between people and land and excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>The fourth major contradiction is our toughest bubble—the real estate market.</b></p><p>As I mentioned before, the real estate market depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. We studied the real estate and housing systems of more than a dozen representative economies over the past century. The basic conclusion is that the housing system determines the real estate market. The system is its gene, and the gene has a very strong self-reproductive ability.</p><p>China's real estate market has reached its current state because our housing reforms were modeled after Hong Kong, which in turn modeled after the UK—both economies have high housing prices.</p><p>Strictly speaking, Hong Kong's housing reform is a lesson, far from a successful experience. The real estate policies of the United States and Japan were also unsuccessful because excessive money supply led to severe asset price bubbles and financial risks.</p><p>Which countries have successfully implemented real estate reform? Germany and Singapore, they engage in leasing, including strong control over their currencies.</p><p><b>Based on our research on international experience, we believe that the key to the long-term stable and healthy development of China's real estate market lies in the linkage between people and land and financial stability. People are demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.</b></p><p>Frankly speaking, our understanding and academic discussion of real estate are still far from truly solving the problem. The real estate chaos we have seen in the past year or two is not surprising at all within our research framework.</p><p>The fundamental problems in China's real estate market are the mismatch between people and land and the excessive money supply in the past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56ae95a7634a2c80c80e346c17e78a6\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, our approach of controlling large cities, developing small and medium-sized towns, and achieving balanced regional development based on the thinking of a planned economy was wrong. This approach led to the concentration of people in large metropolitan areas, but the lack of land quotas led to a mismatch between people and land, high housing prices in first- and second-tier cities, and high inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities—this is completely solvable.</p><p>From an economic and technological perspective, as a scholar, I can responsibly explain this to everyone.<b>There's still a solution to the current situation in China's real estate market; we still have ten years left.</b>However, we need to address the issue of understanding first, which is the main point of my report.</p><p><b>Taking the seven major reforms as a breakthrough</b></p><p><b>China will embark on a new cycle and a new development pattern.</b></p><p>With the seven major reforms as a breakthrough point, we believe that China will usher in a new cycle and a new development pattern.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27ea5fe7412ff498dda305649bad3b8\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The seven major reforms include—</p><p>The first is new infrastructure;</p><p>Secondly, there is the urbanization of metropolitan areas and urban clusters where people and land are linked and factors flow;</p><p>Third, liberalize the birth rate;</p><p>Fourth, it is necessary to connect the dual circulation of the capital market and technological innovation;</p><p>Fifth, large-scale tax and fee reductions;</p><p>Sixth, we should take the Sino-US trade friction as an opportunity to promote a new round of reform and opening up;</p><p>Seventh, establish our new nation-building strategy. What is a nation-building strategy? It is a strategy similar to the \"keep a low profile and bide our time\" strategy that we have benefited from over the past 40 years. Against the backdrop of seeing the trends and directions of the world economy in the coming decades, we have formulated a strategy that is beneficial to us in the long run. We are now in a period of strategic transformation.</p><p>These are the main points I would like to share with you today. We are undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and at the same time, we are also ushering in great opportunities unseen in a century. We firmly believe that with the implementation of a new round of reform and opening up and the release of future reform dividends, as long-term optimists of China's economy and capital market, we believe that the best investment opportunities in the future lie in China. Thank you!</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe2ee4cce3bf07f1e485cf42ddcb0f7","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128854887","content_text":"“未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。”\n“从2019年以后，坦率地讲，我们还处在一个攻坚期，但是我们前期的很多改革的举措，进入到了红利的释放期。”\n“中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。”\n“拜登这次对外讲，3万亿美元从哪里来，他会提高企业所得税和向富人征税。\n但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。实质上这3万亿美元的基建刺激计划绝大部分是通过超发货币。”\n“为什么从去年以来，股市、房市、大宗商品，包括黄金都在涨，比特币也连创新高，根本的原因是我们迎来了美元流动性的泛滥。”\n“我们的基础原材料价格，包括铜、钢这些，最近涨得很厉害，因为它是全球定价的，中国的CPI涨的并不高，一是因为我们货币政策正常化，二是因为正好处于猪周期的下行区间，所以中国面临的主要的问题就是输入性通胀的压力。”\n“我对现代货币理论的理解是，这可能是货币金融的一次创新，但是可能是宏观经济思想的一次大的倒退。”\n“未来的新基建包括三大领域：\n5G、大数据中心、人工智能，新能源汽车、充电桩为代表的科技领域新基建；\n教育医疗为代表的民生领域新基建；\n以及营商环境，服务业开放，多层次资本市场建设等制度领域的新基建。”\n“中国在未来10年将会面临加速到来的人口老龄化，这将是未来中国内部最大的灰犀牛之一。”\n以上，是东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平，日前在东吴证券宏观策略报告会上，分享的最新精彩观点。\n这场策略会是任泽平加盟东吴证券后的首场亮相，任泽平分享了对于中国经济转型的看法，全球经济复苏、美元流动性泛滥对中国经济的影响，以及当下面临的四个主要矛盾和对策。\n聪明投资者整理了任泽平演讲全文，分享给大家。\n尊敬的各位来宾，女士们、先生们，非常高兴在最美的季节、最美的城市，和大家介绍一下我们对未来中国经济政策和市场的一些看法。\n对中国经济转型的前景我是比较乐观的\n我在2014年下海，提出过一些观点。作为一个中国经济的长期的观察者，这些年我也算是周游列国，先是在国务院做智囊，后来在全球最大的房地产企业做首席经济学家，这一次重新回到资本市场，回到券业，想给大家介绍一下我们对中国经济的一些思考和观察。\n过去这几年，我们每年都会提出一些看法和判断，很幸运，这些年大的判断基本还可以。\n\n比如说在2014年，我们提出叫新5%比旧8%好，5000点不是梦；在2015年，我们在股灾前预警，叫海拔已高风大慢走，并预测一线房价翻一倍，还有经济L型；在2017年提出新周期；2019年，当时市场非常悲观的时候，我们提出否极泰来和未来最好的投资机会就在中国。\n在2020年，我倡导新基建，后来从学术讨论走向国家战略。在去年下半年，我倡导放开生育，这一次关于我们的生育政策和人口政策，我认为在未来会出现比较大的调整。\n这些年我也一直在想，我们这一代学者的使命究竟是什么？我始终认为一个人的价值取决于对他人、对所服务的机构、以及社会的价值。\n在今年初，当市场充满争议的时候，我当时提，今年市场最大的逻辑或者主题应该是通胀预期。\n而且关于房地产领域，我提出过一个分析框架，叫房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。这个分析框架可能是房地产领域广为流传的，包括大的开发商、很多投资者、从业人员用的一个分析框架。\n总的来说，作为一名经济学家、中国经济的观察者，虽然比如在2015年市场比较疯狂的时候，我们理性地提示风险。但是在2014年以来，对中国经济转型的前景，我在经济学家里面是比较乐观的。\n很多人说任博士是中国经济和资本市场最大的多头。站在现在这样一个时点，我们看未来，究竟怎么来认清我们所处的时代，以及我们当前的经济形势。\n我想从一个客观、理性、专业、独立的角度，来给大家分享我们的一些观察和最新看法。\n新5%比旧8%好\n不要担心经济增速换挡\n最重要的是提高增长质量\n我大致讲三个方面的内容：第一个是关于中国中长期的经济发展趋势，第二个是关于我们当前的经济形势，最后讲中国现在面临的四大矛盾以及应对。\n第一个，中国经济的发展的趋势。\n我们处在一个什么样的大环境背景之下？怎么认清我们所处的这种环境和时代的特点？\n在过去10年，中国经济发生了一个非常明显的变化。\n过去这10多年，包括未来的10年，中国经济形势不是可以用经济波动来简单解释的。也就是在10年前，在宏观领域，所有主流经济学家都参与了一场大的论战。中国经济（增速）从14%、10%、9%、8%、7%，现在到6%，这种不断地下行是什么原因？我们怎么去应对？\n当时大致分为两派，一派是认为中国经济还能重回高增长，所以要进行大规模的刺激，刺激需求；另一派就是我们当时在国务院发展中心提出的，中国可能要增速换挡了，而且我们的出路是通过改革，提升我们的全要素生产率，构筑我们新的增长平台和动力的机制。\n这是10年前在宏观领域最大的一场论战。在那个背景下，当时我下海提出一个观点叫新5%比旧8%好。\n\n我是花了好长一段时间研究经济史，包括拉美、东南亚落入中等收入陷阱的这些经济体，以及转型成功的德、日、韩、中国台湾等等。\n我们发现，在从发展中国家迈向发达国家的关键时点上，中国人均GDP一万美元露头，12,600我们就成发达国家了，也就是未来5~10年。\n但是很多经济体拒绝增速换挡，试图通过货币对放水刺激，把它重新拉回到高增长的平台上，结果是维持了旧的增长模式，并引发了大的金融危机，最终掉入所谓中等收入陷阱。\n拉美、很多东南亚的经济体都犯过这样严重的错误，只有少数的，大约只占10%左右的经济体，德、日、韩、中国台湾，它们成功推动了改革，在从发展中经济体迈向发达经济体门槛的时候，采取了推动改革的方式。\n在那个时候我们就提出增速换挡，一定要推动新能源的改革，而不是一个简单的货币刺激，能够解决这个时代给我们的命题。\n我当时提出叫新5%比旧8%好的原因是什么？就是大家不要担心经济增速换挡了，最重要的是提高你的增长质量。\n未来通过改革构筑的5%的新增长平台，比过去靠自己勉强维持的8%的旧增长平台要好，利率下来了，股市走牛了，产业升级了、企业利润上升了，居民生活改善了，政府威信提高了，改革是唯一的出路，刺激将酝酿危机。\n经济L型也是我提的，新常态，从高速增长转向高质量发展，中央的这些大论断，印证了我们这一派经济学家所主张的观点。\n为什么在经济学家里面，我们看好中国经济这一轮的改革转型前景，首先是因为在过去10年，我们这场宏观领域的大论战，我就解决了一个很重要的问题，就是认识问题，认识到了我们要增速换挡，而且认识到了以后，叫新5%比旧8%好，未来虽然不是高速增长，但是是高质量的发展。\n我们解决了认识问题以后，这些年我们的政策和改革措施是到位的。我当时为了研究像当年韩国、日本包括德国的转型经验，前前后后看的专著将近上百本，当时非常沉迷于这个研究。\n最好的教科书实际上是经济史，因为经济学做不了实验，但是经济史给我们很大的启发。\n我们还处在一个攻坚期\n但前期的很多改革举措\n进入到了红利的释放期\n很多人说每年我们的政策都发明一个新词，这是对中国缺乏足够的观察和状态。\n事实上这些表述恰恰是我们对中国当前问题的认识，以及应对措施不断深化的结果。作为一线的经济学家，我是非常有感触的。\n中国的这一轮改革分为三个阶段，第一个阶段是改革预期形成的过程；第二个阶段是落地攻坚的阵痛期；第三个阶段是红利的释放期。\n第一个阶段是改革预期形成和争议的时期，大致是2012年到2015年，落地攻坚以及攻坚的阵痛期，是2016、2017、2018年，那时候整个社会，包括我们资本市场弥漫着非常悲观的气氛，什么离场论、洗洗睡，那是因为我们处在一个阵痛期。\n事实上从2019年以后，坦率地讲，我们还处在一个攻坚期，但是我们前期的很多改革的举措，进入到了红利的释放期。\n一个比较大的转折实际上是在2015年底，中央提出供给侧结构性改革，这个是非常有转折性意义的。\n当时我们提出“三去一降一补”，去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板。简单来讲，经济学讲叫“破旧立新”，我们要把过去高增长积累下来的过剩产能，过多的库存以及金融杠杆的风险给它破掉。\n在过去的这些年，我们面对中美贸易摩擦，面对疫情，中国没有出现大的金融风险，因为我们提前扎好了风险的篱笆，是提前做好了准备的。\n降成本、补短板，这就是立新。我们培育自己新的经济，新的技术、新的产业。后来到了三大攻坚战，包括双循环，都是我们在不断深化改革，应对新5%比旧8%好、高质量发展的挑战。\n事实上，比如说推动注册制改革，建设多层次资本市场，依靠创新推动实体经济的高质量发展，它是逻辑自洽的。\n创新发展，最后要依靠资本市场，传统依赖银行主导的这种融资模式，比较匹配我们原来重化工业的时代，未来中国大量的风投、新经济，它需要多层次资本市场。\n这一次资本市场上升到了很重要的位置，包括像注册制改革、反垄断，这些东西都是逻辑自洽的，包括碳达峰、碳中和、高水平的对外开放等等，我不再赘述。\n总的结论就是，未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。\n这就是我们所处的环境背景。\n2021年我们会面对全球经济复苏的共振\n现在给大家报告一下我们当前的经济形势。\n毫无疑问，中国在抗击疫情和恢复生产方面，走在了全球的前面。\n我们去年4个季度的GDP增速分别是-6.8%，3.2%，4.9%和6.5%，6.5%是什么概念呢？2019年中国GDP增速是6.1%，在去年四季度，中国已经回到了潜在增长率水平。\n而且在全球的主要经济体当中，去年中国是唯一实现正增长的。\n所以从2019年以后，我们已经开始享受改革红利了，但是并不意味着改革的任务完成，我们后面还面临很多的挑战，但是大的思路扭转过来了。\n2021年一个很重要的特点就是，我们会面对全球经济复苏的共振。\n去年二季度，中国经济复苏，今年随着美国、欧洲、日本疫苗的大规模接种，以及拜登要推出一个高达3万亿美元的基建刺激计划，我们可能会迎来全球的复苏共振。\n3万亿美元是什么概念？我们2009年4万亿刺激，3万亿美元，那是将近20万亿人民币的基建刺激计划。\n中国正在回归货币政策正常化\n欧美对货币放水和刺激仍然有很强诉求\n因为中国、美国、欧洲复苏的周期阶段不一样，中国是率先复苏，美国欧洲在今年才开始进入复苏阶段。这样大家的政策组合和诉求也不一样。\n中国正在迎来广义流动性的周期性拐点，因为随着通胀预期的上升，经济回归潜在增长率水平，我们开始进行货币政策正常化的操作，以及在房地产和地方债等领域进行结构性的信用政策收紧。\n我在今年初提出中国正迎来流动性的拐点，当时大家很argue这个观点，最近也验证了这个判断。\n中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。\n所以欧美包括中国这一轮的全球经济复苏，它的轨道是不一样的，导致了政策的诉求不一样。我们开始货币政策正常化了，欧美可能还在一个低利率、放水刺激的阶段，这就带来了全球通胀预期。\n如果说2021年我们要定一个短期宏观经济形式的主题词，或最大的一个特点，就是通胀预期。\n我们迎来了通胀预期，包括全球经济复苏的共振，包括拜登要重振美国，推出了3万亿美元基建刺激计划，以及美元流动性的泛滥。\n美元流动性泛滥\n中国面临输入性通胀的压力\n为什么最后讲美元流动性泛滥呢？\n拜登这次对外讲，3万亿美元从哪里来，他会提高企业所得税和向富人征税。\n但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。实质上这3万亿美元的基建刺激计划绝大部分是通过超发货币。\n这就是为什么我要给大家重点讲的一个问题。\n这一次的全球的通胀，很多人讲是因为需求恢复了，需求的恢复程度远远支撑不了如此高的通胀，包括广义资产价格的泡沫化。\n现在欧美经济还在地板上趴着，刚刚露出复苏的苗头，美国的股市连创新高，两大海岸线的房价连创新高，什么原因？货币的超发、美元流动性的泛滥。\n自从去年疫情以来，美国推出QE、QQE、无上限的QE，通过印钞票买美国的国债，甚至买商票。\n大家看黄色的线，这条黄色线是美国M2增速，就是美国的广义货币供应增速。这是20年来最高值，而且是惊人的高。\n后面我会给大家讲，整个宏观经济学领域面临的一个困境和变局，要么你就在放水的这条路上一路走下去，全球63%的外汇储备是美元，美国超发美元实际上相当于它把成本向全世界进行了分担，但是我们不行。\n因为我们是非储备货币国家，中国的货币如果超发实际上是被居民分担了，或者居民的现金流资产被稀释了。\n这就是为什么从去年以来，股市、房市、大宗商品，包括黄金都在涨，比特币也连创新高，根本的原因是我们迎来了美元流动性的泛滥，这就是我们面临的情况。\n黄金是实物货币，比特币是超主权货币，黄金和比特币的大涨，包括广义通胀的明显上涨，说明大家对以美元为代表的国家主权的信用货币的不信任。进而带来了今年通胀预期的明显抬升。\n通货膨胀的概念在经济学上颇具争议，但是它讲述了一个非常常识性的问题，通货膨胀在任何时间、任何地点都是货币现象，钞票印多了总有东西会涨，如果货币泛滥了，商品就会普涨。\n而中国在去年下半年以来，就开始推动货币政策的正常化，正如总理这次在两会讲的，我们去年没有超发货币，所以今年我们也没必要急转弯，而是贯彻货币政策的正常化，但是值得留意的是，因为大宗商品是全球定价的，所以中国虽然整体通胀不高，但是PPI、工业品价格在抬升。\n我们的基础原材料价格，包括铜、钢这些，最近涨得很厉害，因为它是全球定价的，中国的CPI涨的并不高，一是因为我们货币政策正常化，二是因为正好处于猪周期的下行区间，所以中国面临的主要的问题就是输入性通胀的压力。\n这一轮经济复苏是K型复苏\n全球经济和宏观政策已经走到了十字路口\n这一轮经济复苏，我们面临一个很重要的新现象，叫K型复苏。这是最近宏观经济领域大家讨论比较多的一个话题。\n以前经济复苏一般有u型复苏、v型复苏，就是在经济复苏的背景下，大部分人的境况改善了，整体收入改善，就业改善。\n而K型复苏则是一部分人改善，一部分人变差了，虽然经济整体是复苏的，股市房市都在涨，各种资产价格都在涨，但是一部分人，甚至大部分人的境况反而是变差的。\n为什么出现了K型复苏的现象呢？那就要说回到全球对货币的过度依赖。\n我认为全球经济和宏观政策，已经走到十字路口了。我记得有一年达里奥来中国推销他的新书，他找了4个人帮他站台，我是其中一位。他最后讲到美国现在的收入分配的差距和大萧条前很相似，当年的大萧条是金融危机、经济危机、社会危机、政治危机，到最后军事危机——爆发了战争。\n按照这个逻辑讲，它根本的原因不是经济问题，而是社会问题，或者说是收入分配问题。\n其实全球都面临类似的挑战，因为对货币的过度依赖导致了K型复苏以及财富收入差距拉大，进而导致了民粹主义、逆全球化等等这一系列思潮。\nMMT可能是货币金融的一次创新\n但可能是宏观经济思想的一次大倒退\n历史非常相似，100年前也是类似的景象。站在这个十字路口该怎么办？经济学家要给出解决方案，现在整个经济学领域有两派，一派是以中国为代表，要回归货币政策正常化，推动改革，提升全要素生产率。\n另一派就是MMT，现代货币理论。简单来讲，它的理念就是税收确定货币的发行。只要国家主权没有问题，货币的发行可以无上限，也就是政府的债务就根本不应该存在上限，可以通过政府的发债，包括通过货币的发行无限循环下去。\n这就是现在大家都在讲的现代货币理论，那就是真的是在放水刺激的路上走远了，我对现代货币理论的理解是，这可能是货币金融的一次创新，但是可能是宏观经济思想的一次大的倒退。\n但是我们很幸运，中国没有选择这条理论，所以去年中国主流的公共政策的声音是批判MMT的。\n谈到对大类资产的观点，线索是非常清楚的。作为一个做了20年宏观经济形势分析的老研究员，我觉得最后一定要回归到最底层的逻辑。今年经济形势的主要逻辑就是通胀预期，这意味着今年受益的一定是低估值和有着涨价预期的品种。\n所以最近市场走得比较好的都是这些，过去两年高估值的，因为利率的上升，都在杀估值，最后这些基本的逻辑都是成立的。\n中美贸易摩擦具有长期性和严峻性\n最后给大家讲讲我们现在面临的四大矛盾以及对策。\n第一大矛盾毫无疑问是中美贸易摩擦，这是我们所谓的百年未有之大变局。\n中美贸易摩擦的本质是什么？\n中国改革开放40多年，我们现在的经济规模已经是美国的70%了，而且更重要的是我们还在以5~6%的速度在增长，我们是美国潜在增长率的2~3倍，按照这样的趋势下去，大约在2030年前后，中国经济规模将会超过美国，成为世界第一大经济体。\n这对我们每个中国人来说，这意味着中华民族重回世界之巅的一天。而且我们很幸运的赶上了时代的大潮，我们可以见到历史，但是纵观世界经济史，在过去的100多年前，自从美国超过英国，成为世界第一大经济体以后，就没有人超过他。\n先后有两个挑战者，前苏联和日本，他们都和美国爆发了冲突，而且不简单是贸易领域的，包括地缘政治、意识形态，包括金融领域甚至军事的全面对抗。\n中国还有7~10年就会重新成为世界第一大经济体，这段时间会发生什么？答案是非常清楚的，中美贸易摩擦的本质是在位霸权国家，遏制新兴大国的崛起，它具有长期性和严峻性。我们最好的应对是以更大的勇气推动新一轮改革开放，坚定不移。对此我们要保持清醒冷静和战略定力。\n但是我也非常赞同一位长者，基辛格先生的呼吁：为了世界的和平和长期的繁荣，中美一定要多对话、多交流，双方都要做出调整，因为世界的整个治理版图发生了深刻的变革。\n从美国的角度，在未来十年美国要调整心态，接受一个日益崛起的融入全球化的中国。中国也要调整心态，当我们强大以后，我们要相应的承担全球的责任，并且尊重全球的游戏规则。\n未来的新基建包括三大领域\n第二大矛盾是创新发展。\n我们过去依靠人口红利、要素红利等等实现了高增长，未来我们要高质量发展就需要创新驱动。这方面我比较倡导新基建，这些年，我倡导的新基建从学术讨论走向了国家战略。对于一名学者而言，这是我最大的贡献。\n新基建短期有利于扩大需求，稳增长、稳就业，长期有助于培育中国的新技术、新产业和新经济，打造中国经济的新引擎。\n过去40多年，中国本身就是大规模超前基础设施建设的受益者，为什么印度抓不住全球化红利而中国抓住了？很重要原因就是基础设施建设。\n未来的新基建包括三大领域：\n5G、大数据中心、人工智能，新能源汽车、充电桩为代表的科技领域新基建；\n教育医疗为代表的民生领域新基建；\n以及营商环境，服务业开放，多层次资本市场建设等制度领域的新基建。\n中国将面临人口老龄化\n这将是未来最大的灰犀牛之一\n第三个主要矛盾就是中国在未来10年将会面临加速到来的人口老龄化，这将是未来中国内部最大的灰犀牛之一。\n过去2、30年大家根本不用关心人口老龄化的问题，但是在未来10年，这是一件大事。因为中国的婴儿潮是1962~1976年，我们受益于这个婴儿潮的人口红利，中国过去的高增长就是这一批人年轻时候干出来的，正好叠加了全球化红利。\n但是1962年出生的这批人现在59岁了，明年就退休了。\n这就是为什么公共政策领域在讨论延长退休，因为如果不做政策的调整，未来中国的这波婴儿潮期间出生的人将加速退出劳动力市场——这还不是我讲的重点。\n重点是中国的老龄化不是像欧美这样慢慢到来的，因为中国有计划生育，中国的人口老龄化将在未来5~10年扑面而来、加速到来。\n所以十四五，包括这次政府工作报告都提出，把应对人口老龄化上升到国家战略，因为我们还处于未富先老，欧美和日本都是进入发达国家之后才开始人口老龄化，而我们人均GDP刚过1万美元，就迎来了一个老龄化的挑战，所以我也呼吁放开生育。\n从发展的趋势来看，中国人口老龄化的速度和规模前所未有。2022年深度老龄化社会，2033年超级老龄化社会，到2060年，三个人中有一个是65岁以上的老人，同时还有少子化的问题。\n人口老龄化会带来哪些问题？\n中国经济潜在增长率将会下降；劳动力成本上升；投资率储蓄率下降；社会抚养比和养老负担加重；政府的债务和社会保障的压力都会上升，更重要的是社会的活力将会下降。\n所以应对人口老龄化和少子化的挑战，要尽快放开生育，让生育权回归家庭，加快构筑生育支撑体系，同时积极应对人口老龄化，建设一个老年友好型的社会，这是我们面临一个很大的挑战。\n房地产的根本问题是人地错配和货币超发\n第四个主要矛盾，就是我们最坚硬的泡沫——房地产。\n我原来提到，房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。我们研究了过去上百年，十几个代表经济体的房地产以及住房制度的案例，基本结论是住房制度决定房地产市场，制度是它的基因，而基因有着很强大的自我繁殖能力。\n中国的房地产走到今天，就是因为当时我们的住房改革学习的是中国香港，而中国香港学习的又是英国——这两个经济体都是高房价。\n严格来讲香港的住房改革是教训，远远谈不上是成功的经验。而美国、日本，他们的房地产政策也是不成功的，因为货币的超发带来了严重的资产价格的泡沫以及金融风险。\n房地产改革搞成功的国家有哪些呢？德国和新加坡，他们搞租赁，包括对货币强有力的控制。\n根据我们对国际经验的研究，我们认为中国房地产长期平稳健康发展的关键是人地挂钩和金融稳定。人是需求，土地是供给，金融是杠杆。\n坦率地说，我们对房地产的认识和学术讨论距离真正解决问题还有很大的差距。我们在过去这一两年看到的房产乱象，放在我们的研究框架里面一点都不稀奇。\n中国房地产的根本问题就是人地错配和货币过去的一度超发。\n\n过去我们以计划经济的思维，控制大城市，发展中小城镇，区域均衡发展的思路是错的，这种思路导致了人往大的都市圈集聚，但是土地指标没有供过来，导致了人地错配和一二线城市高房价、三四线高库存——这个是完全有解的。\n从经济学上从技术上，作为一个学者，我可以负责任给大家讲，中国房地产走到今天还有解，我们还有最后十年的时间窗口，但是我们要先解决认识问题，这是我给大家报告的主要观点。\n以七大改革为突破口\n中国将开启新周期、新发展格局\n未来以七大改革为突破口，我们认为中国将会开启新周期、新发展格局。\n\n七大改革包括——\n第一是新基建；\n第二是人地挂钩，要素流动的都市圈、城市群的城市化；\n第三是放开生育；\n第四是打通资本市场与科技创新的双循环；\n第五是大规模的减税降费；\n第六是以中美贸易摩擦为契机，推动新一轮的改革开放；\n第七，确立我们新的立国战略。什么叫立国战略？就是我们过去40年所受益的类似韬光养晦战略，在看清未来几十年世界经济的潮流和趋势的背景下，制定一种对我长期有利的战略，我们现在处在一个战略的转型期。\n以上是今天我给大家报告的主要观点，我们正处在百年未有之大变局，同时我们也迎来了百年未有之大机遇。我们深信，随着新的一轮的改革开放落地攻坚，以及未来改革红利的释放，作为中国经济和资本市场的长期的乐观主义者，我们认为未来最好的投资机会就在中国，谢谢！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":343221562,"gmtCreate":1617719859356,"gmtModify":1704702259321,"author":{"id":"3494367660508553","authorId":"3494367660508553","name":"面币思过","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eebeb629c32510fbc2623963ad5f592d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494367660508553","authorIdStr":"3494367660508553"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343221562","repostId":"1128854887","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128854887","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"走近最优秀的投资人，聆听客观表达的理性声音，只做最好的原创财富资讯，洞见独立思想，回归资本常识。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"聪明投资者","id":"1072656223","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f"},"pubTimestamp":1617714486,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128854887?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 21:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping's speech today: The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128854887","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"“未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。”“中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。”但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。","content":"<p><b>\"The best investment opportunities in the future are in China, and we are standing at the starting point of a new cycle. Because over the past 10 years, we have found the crux of China's problems, and because of some adjustments in the early stages, we have a very strong ability to execute.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Frankly speaking, since 2019, we have still been in a critical period, but many of our previous reform measures have entered a period of releasing their benefits.\"</b></p><p><b>\"China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the European and American economies have just emerged from the trough and are still quite fragile, and the pandemic is still a cause for concern, it still has a strong demand for monetary easing and stimulus.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Biden is now talking about where the $3 trillion will come from, and that he will raise corporate income taxes and tax the wealthy.\"</b></p><p><b>However, from a macroeconomic perspective, this logic does not make sense; $3 trillion is unlikely to be achieved through short-term taxation. In essence, the vast majority of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan was achieved through excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>\"The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, including gold, have been rising since last year, and the Bitcoin has also hit new highs, is that we have experienced an overabundance of dollar liquidity.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently because they are priced globally. China's CPI has not risen high, firstly because our monetary policy has normalized, and secondly because we are in the downward phase of the pig cycle. So the main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.\"</b></p><p><b>\"My understanding of modern monetary theory is that this may be an innovation in monetary finance, but it may be a major regression in macroeconomic thinking.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Future new infrastructure includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the technology field, represented by 5G, big data centers, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure projects in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as</b></p><p><b>And new infrastructure in institutional areas such as the business environment, the opening up of the service sector, and the construction of a multi-tiered capital market.</b></p><p><b>\"China will face an accelerated aging population in the next 10 years, which will be one of the biggest gray rhinos in China in the future.\"</b></p><p>The above is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Dongwu Securities</a>Chief Economist Ren Zeping shared his latest insightful views at the Dongwu Securities Macroeconomic Strategy Report Conference recently.</p><p>This strategy meeting marked Ren Zeping's first appearance since joining Dongwu Securities. Ren Zeping shared his views on China's economic transformation, the impact of global economic recovery and excessive dollar liquidity on the Chinese economy, as well as the four main contradictions and countermeasures it currently faces.</p><p>Smart Investors has compiled the full text of Ren Zeping's speech and is sharing it with you.</p><p>Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to share some of our views on China's future economic policies and markets in the most beautiful season and in the most beautiful city.</p><p><b>I am quite optimistic about the prospects for China's economic transformation.</b></p><p>I went into business in 2014 and put forward some views. As a long-time observer of the Chinese economy, I have traveled around the world over the years, first as a think tank at the State Council, and later as the chief economist at the world's largest real estate company. This time, I have returned to the capital market and the securities industry, and I would like to share some of our thoughts and observations on the Chinese economy.</p><p>Over the past few years, we have put forward some opinions and judgments every year. Fortunately, our judgments over the years have been generally acceptable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87d9c7b78c2913545af7eaeb0bcbc71c\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, in 2014, we proposed that the new 5% be better than the old 8%, and that 5000 points was not a dream; In 2015, we warned before the stock market crash that the altitude was high and the wind was strong, so take it slow. We also predicted that housing prices in first-tier cities would double and that there would be an L-shaped economy. A new cycle was proposed in 2017; In 2019, when the market was very pessimistic, we proposed that the best investment opportunity for the future would be in China.</p><p>In 2020, I advocated for new infrastructure, which later moved from academic discussion to national strategy. In the second half of last year, I advocated for liberalizing birth control. This time, I believe there will be significant adjustments to our birth and population policies in the future.</p><p>Over the years, I have also been thinking about what the mission of our generation of scholars is. I have always believed that a person's value depends on their value to others, to the institutions they serve, and to society.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, when the market was full of controversy, I suggested that the biggest logic or theme of the market this year should be inflation expectations.</p><p>Furthermore, regarding the real estate sector, I have proposed an analytical framework that focuses on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. This analytical framework is probably a widely circulated one in the real estate industry, including one used by large developers, many investors, and practitioners.</p><p>In general, as an economist and observer of the Chinese economy, although we rationally warned of risks during the market frenzy in 2015, for example. However, since 2014, I have been relatively optimistic among economists about the prospects for China's economic transformation.</p><p>Many people say that Dr. Ren is the biggest bull in China's economy and capital market. Standing at this point in time, when we look to the future, how do we truly understand the era we live in and our current economic situation?</p><p>I would like to share some of our observations and latest views with you from an objective, rational, professional, and independent perspective.</p><p><b>The new 5% is better than the old 8%</b></p><p><b>Don't worry about the slowdown in economic growth.</b></p><p><b>The most important thing is to improve the quality of growth</b></p><p>I will briefly discuss three aspects: first, China's medium- and long-term economic development trends; second, our current economic situation; and finally, the four major contradictions China is currently facing and how to deal with them.</p><p>First, the trend of China's economic development.</p><p>What kind of environment are we in? How can we recognize the characteristics of the environment and times we live in?</p><p>Over the past 10 years, China's economy has undergone a very significant change.</p><p>Over the past decade, and for the next decade, China's economic situation cannot be simply explained by economic fluctuations. Ten years ago, in the macroeconomic field, all mainstream economists participated in a major debate. China's economic growth rate has fallen from 14%, 10%, 9%, 8%, 7%, and now to 6%. What are the reasons for this continuous decline? How do we deal with this?</p><p>At the time, there were roughly two camps. One camp believed that the Chinese economy could return to high growth, so large-scale stimulus was needed to stimulate demand. Another view is what we proposed at the State Council's Development Center at the time: China's growth rate may be about to shift, and our way out is through reform to improve our total factor productivity and build a new growth platform and driving force mechanism.</p><p>This was the biggest debate in the macroeconomic field 10 years ago. Against that backdrop, when I went into business, I put forward the idea that the new 5% was better than the old 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1d1900d513ee51e74e970535a6e937\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I spent a considerable amount of time studying economic history, including economies in Latin America and Southeast Asia that fell into the middle-income trap, as well as countries such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan that have successfully transformed.</p><p>We have found that at a critical juncture in China's transition from a developing country to a developed country, if China's per capita GDP reaches $10,000, we will become a developed country by $12,600, which means we will be a developed country in the next 5 to 10 years.</p><p>However, many economies refused to slow down their growth rates and attempted to stimulate them back to a high-growth platform through monetary easing. As a result, they maintained the old growth model, triggered a major financial crisis, and ultimately fell into the so-called middle-income trap.</p><p>Latin American and many Southeast Asian economies have made such serious mistakes. Only a few, about 10%, such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, have successfully promoted reforms and adopted a reform-driven approach as they moved from developing economies to developed economies.</p><p><b>At that time, we proposed a shift in growth rate and that we must promote the reform of new energy sources, rather than a simple monetary stimulus, which could solve the problems posed to us by this era.</b></p><p>Why did I propose that the new 5% be better than the old 8%? It means everyone<b>Don't worry about the economic growth slowing down; the most important thing is to improve the quality of your growth.</b></p><p>The new 5% growth platform built through reforms in the future will be better than the old 8% growth platform that was barely maintained by itself in the past. Interest rates have come down, the stock market has gone bullish, industries have upgraded, corporate profits have increased, residents' lives have improved, and government prestige has increased. Reform is the only way out, but stimulus will brew a crisis.</p><p>The L-shaped economy is also what I proposed. The new normal is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development. These major assertions by the central government confirm the views advocated by our group of economists.</p><p>The reason why economists are optimistic about the prospects of China's economic reform and transformation in this round is firstly because in the past 10 years, our major debate in the macroeconomic field has solved a very important problem: understanding the problem, realizing that we need to slow down growth, and realizing that the new 5% is better than the old 8%. Although the future may not be high-speed growth, it will be high-quality development.</p><p>After we resolved the issue of understanding, our policies and reform measures over the years have been in place. At the time, I read nearly a hundred monographs to study the transformation experiences of countries like South Korea, Japan, and Germany, and I was very engrossed in this research.</p><p>The best textbook is actually economic history, because economics cannot be experimented with, but economic history can give us a lot of inspiration.</p><p><b>We are still in a critical phase.</b></p><p><b>However, many of the previous reform measures</b></p><p><b>The period of releasing dividends has entered.</b></p><p>Many people say that our policies invent a new term every year, which reflects a lack of sufficient observation and understanding of China.</p><p>In fact, these statements are precisely the result of our understanding of China's current problems and the continuous deepening of our countermeasures. As a frontline economist, I have a deep understanding of this.</p><p><b>China's current round of reforms is divided into three stages. The first stage is the process of forming reform expectations; The second stage is the painful period of implementation; The third stage is the release period of dividends.</b></p><p>The first stage was the period of formation and controversy regarding reform expectations, roughly from 2012 to 2015. The implementation and growing pains of these challenges were 2016, 2017, and 2018. At that time, the whole society, including our capital market, was filled with a very pessimistic atmosphere. There were talks of exiting the market and \"washing up and sleeping\" because we were in a period of growing pains.</p><p>In fact<b>Frankly speaking, since 2019, we have still been in a critical period, but many of our previous reform measures have entered a period of releasing their benefits.</b></p><p>A major turning point actually came at the end of 2015 when the central government proposed supply-side structural reform, which was of great transformative significance.</p><p>At that time, we proposed \"reducing overcapacity, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weaknesses,\" which included reducing overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and addressing Simply put, economics calls it \"breaking down the old and establishing the new.\" We need to break down the excess capacity, excessive inventory, and risks of financial leverage accumulated by past high growth.</p><p>Over the years, despite the Sino-US trade friction and the pandemic, China has not faced major financial risks because we have built a hedge against risks in advance and made preparations in advance.</p><p>Reducing costs and addressing shortcomings is what establishing a new foundation is all about. We are cultivating our own new economy, new technologies, and new industries. Later, we came to the three critical battles, including the dual circulation, which were all challenges that we were continuously deepening reforms to meet the challenges of the new 5% being better than the old 8% and high-quality development.</p><p>In fact, for example, promoting the registration-based IPO system reform, building a multi-tiered capital market, and relying on innovation to drive the high-quality development of the real economy are logically consistent.</p><p>Innovative development ultimately relies on the capital market. The traditional bank-led financing model is more suitable for our former era of heavy chemical industry. In the future, China will have a large number of venture capitalists and new economies, which will require a multi-tiered capital market.</p><p>This time, the capital market has risen to a very important position, including things like the registration-based IPO system reform and anti-monopoly measures. These are all logically consistent, such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, and high-level opening up to the outside world, which I will not go into detail about.</p><p>The general conclusion is that,<b>The best investment opportunities for the future lie in China, and we are standing at the starting point of a new cycle.</b>Over the past 10 years, we have identified the crux of China's problems and, thanks to some early adjustments, have acquired very strong execution capabilities.</p><p>This is the environmental context in which we live.</p><p><b>In 2021, we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery.</b></p><p>Now let me report to you on our current economic situation.</p><p>Without a doubt, China has taken the lead globally in fighting the pandemic and resuming production.</p><p>Our GDP growth rates for the four quarters of last year were -6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.5% respectively. What does 6.5% mean? China's GDP growth rate was 6.1% in 2019, and by the fourth quarter of last year, China had returned to its potential growth rate level.</p><p>Moreover, among the world's major economies, China was the only one to achieve positive growth last year.</p><p><b>Therefore, since 2019, we have begun to enjoy the benefits of reform, but this does not mean that the reform task has been completed.</b>We still face many challenges ahead, but the overall approach has been reversed.</p><p><b>A key feature of 2021 is that we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery.</b>。</p><p>China's economy recovered in the second quarter of last year. This year, with the large-scale vaccination rollout in the United States, Europe, and Japan, and Biden's upcoming $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, we may see a global recovery.</p><p>What does $3 trillion mean? In 2009, we provided a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package with 3 trillion US dollars, which was an infrastructure stimulus plan worth nearly 20 trillion yuan.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy</b></p><p><b>Europe and the United States still have strong demands for monetary easing and stimulus.</b></p><p>Because the recovery cycles of China, the United States, and Europe are different, China was the first to recover, while the United States and Europe only began to enter the recovery phase this year. As a result, everyone's policy mix and demands are different.</p><p>China is entering a cyclical turning point in broad liquidity as inflation expectations rise and the economy returns to potential growth rates. We are beginning to normalize monetary policy and tighten structural credit policies in areas such as real estate and local government debt.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, I proposed that China was reaching a liquidity turning point. At the time, everyone argued with this view, and this judgment has recently been verified.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the economies of Europe and the United States have just emerged from the trough and are still quite fragile, and the pandemic is still a cause for concern, it still has a strong demand for monetary easing and stimulus.</b></p><p>Therefore, the global economic recovery in Europe, the United States, and China has had different trajectories, leading to different policy demands. We have begun to normalize monetary policy, and Europe and the United States may still be in a phase of low interest rates and easy monetary stimulus, which has led to global inflation expectations.</p><p>If we were to choose a theme for the short-term macroeconomic situation in 2021, perhaps the biggest characteristic would be inflation expectations.</p><p>We are facing inflation expectations, including the resonance of the global economic recovery, Biden's plan to revitalize the United States, the launch of a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, and the flood of dollar liquidity.</p><p><b>Flood of dollar liquidity</b></p><p><b>China faces pressure from imported inflation</b></p><p>Why did we talk about the excessive liquidity of the US dollar at the end?</p><p><b>This time, Biden told the public where the $3 trillion would come from, and that he would raise corporate income taxes and tax the wealthy.</b></p><p><b>However, from a macroeconomic perspective, this logic does not make sense; $3 trillion is unlikely to be achieved through short-term taxation. In fact, the vast majority of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan was achieved through excessive money supply.</b></p><p>That's why I'm going to focus on this issue.</p><p>Many people say that this global inflation is due to a recovery in demand, which is far from sufficient to support such high inflation, including the formation of broad asset price bubbles.</p><p>The European and American economies are still on the floor, just showing signs of recovery. The US stock market has hit new highs, and housing prices on the two major coastlines have hit new highs. What are the reasons for this? Excessive money supply and excessive dollar liquidity.</p><p>Since the outbreak of the pandemic last year, the United States has launched QE, QQE, and unlimited QE, buying US Treasury Bond and even commercial bills by printing money.</p><p>Look at the yellow line. This yellow line represents the growth rate of US M2, which is the growth rate of the US broad money supply. This is the highest value in 20 years, and it is astonishingly high.</p><p>Later, I will talk about the dilemma and changes facing the entire field of macroeconomics. Either you continue down the path of monetary easing, with 63% of the world's foreign exchange reserves being in US dollars. The US's excessive issuance of US dollars is actually equivalent to sharing the costs with the whole world, but we cannot do that.</p><p>Because we are a non-reserve currency country, if China's currency is over-issued, it is actually shared by residents, or their cash flow assets are diluted.</p><p>This is<b>The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, and even gold have all risen since last year, and the Bitcoin has repeatedly hit new highs, is that we have experienced an overabundance of dollar liquidity.</b>This is the situation we are facing.</p><p>Gold is a physical currency, while Bitcoin is a supranational currency. The surge in gold and Bitcoin, including the significant rise in broad inflation, demonstrates public distrust of national sovereign fiat currencies represented by the US dollar. This has led to a significant increase in inflation expectations this year.</p><p>The concept of inflation is quite controversial in economics, but it tells a very common-sense story: inflation is a monetary phenomenon at any time and in any place. If more money is printed, something will always rise, and if there is a flood of money, commodities will generally rise.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, China has been promoting the normalization of monetary policy. As the Premier said at the Two Sessions, we did not issue too much money last year, so there is no need for us to make a sharp turn this year. Instead, we will implement the normalization of monetary policy. However, it is worth noting that because commodities are priced globally, although China's overall inflation is not high, the PPI and industrial product prices are rising.</p><p>The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently because they are globally priced, and China's CPI has not risen high. This is partly due to the normalization of our monetary policy, and partly because we are currently in the downward phase of the pig cycle.<b>The main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.</b></p><p><b>This economic recovery is a K-shaped recovery.</b></p><p><b>The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads</b></p><p>In this round of economic recovery, we are facing a very important new phenomenon called the K-shaped recovery. This is a topic that has been discussed a lot in the macroeconomic field recently.</p><p>In the past, economic recovery generally included U-shaped recovery and V-shaped recovery, which meant that against the backdrop of economic recovery, the situation of most people improved, overall income improved, and employment improved.</p><p>K-shaped recovery, on the other hand, means that some people are improving while others are getting worse. Although the overall economy is recovering, the stock and housing markets are rising, and the prices of various assets are rising, the situation of some people, or even most people, is actually getting worse.</p><p>Why did the K-shaped recovery occur? That brings us back to the global over-reliance on currencies.</p><p>I think<b>The global economy and macroeconomic policies have reached a crossroads.</b>I remember one year Dalio came to China to promote his new book, and he hired four people to endorse him, and I was one of them. He concluded by saying that the current income gap in the United States is very similar to that before the Great Depression, which consisted of financial crises, economic crises, social crises, political crises, and finally a military crisis—the outbreak of war.</p><p>According to this logic, its fundamental cause is not an economic problem, but a social problem, or rather, an income distribution problem.</p><p>In fact, the world faces similar challenges because over-reliance on currency has led to a K-shaped recovery and a widening wealth and income gap, which in turn has led to a series of trends such as populism and anti-globalization.</p><p><b>MMT may be an innovation in monetary finance.</b></p><p><b>However, this could be a major setback in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>History is very similar; it was a similar scene 100 years ago. What should we do when we stand at this crossroads? Economists need to provide solutions. Currently, there are two factions in the field of economics. One faction, represented by China, wants to return to the normalization of monetary policy, promote reforms, and improve total factor productivity.</p><p>The other school is MMT, Modern Monetary Theory. Simply put, its concept is that taxation determines the issuance of currency. As long as national sovereignty is not a problem, there can be no upper limit to the issuance of currency. In other words, there should be no upper limit to government debt and it can continue to circulate indefinitely through government bond issuance, including the issuance of currency.</p><p>This is the modern monetary theory that everyone is talking about now. It really has gone too far down the path of monetary stimulus. My understanding of modern monetary theory is...<b>This may be an innovation in monetary finance, but it could be a major setback in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>However, we are fortunate that China did not choose this theory, so last year the mainstream public policy voice in China was critical of MMT.</p><p>When it comes to views on major asset classes, the clues are very clear. As a veteran researcher who has analyzed the macroeconomic situation for 20 years, I believe that in the end, we must return to the most fundamental logic. The main logic behind this year's economic situation is inflation expectations, which means that the beneficiaries this year will definitely be undervalued stocks with price increase expectations.</p><p>Therefore, these are the companies that have performed well in the market recently. Those with high valuations over the past two years have been driving down valuations due to rising interest rates. In the end, these basic logics all hold true.</p><p><b>The Sino-US trade friction is long-term and severe.</b></p><p>Finally, I would like to talk about the four major contradictions we are currently facing and their countermeasures.</p><p><b>The biggest contradiction is undoubtedly the Sino-US trade friction, which is what we call a major change unseen in a century.</b></p><p>What is the essence of the Sino-US trade friction?</p><p>Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy is now 70% of that of the United States, and more importantly, it is still growing at a rate of 5 to 6%, which is 2 to 3 times the potential growth rate of the United States. If this trend continues, around 2030, China's economy will surpass that of the United States and become the world's largest economy.</p><p>For every Chinese person, this means the day when the Chinese nation will return to the top of the world. Moreover, we are fortunate to have caught up with the tide of the times, and we can see history. However, looking at the history of the world economy, more than 100 years ago, since the United States surpassed Britain to become the world's largest economy, no one has surpassed it.</p><p>Two challengers emerged, the former Soviet Union and Japan, both of which engaged in conflicts with the United States, not simply in the trade sphere, but also in geopolitical, ideological, financial, and even military confrontations.</p><p>China will once again become the world's largest economy in 7 to 10 years. What will happen during this time? The answer is very clear.<b>The essence of the Sino-US trade friction is to curb the rise of emerging powers by incumbent hegemonic countries; it is long-term and severe. Our best response is to promote a new round of reform and opening up with greater courage and remain steadfast. We must remain clear-headed, calm, and strategically focused in this regard.</b></p><p>However, I also strongly agree with the appeal of an elder, Mr. Kissinger: for world peace and long-term prosperity, China and the United States must engage in more dialogue and exchanges, and both sides must make adjustments, because the entire world governance landscape has undergone profound changes.</p><p>From the United States' perspective, the United States needs to adjust its mindset over the next decade to accept a rising China that is integrated into globalization. China also needs to adjust its mindset. Once we become strong, we must assume global responsibilities and respect the global rules of the game.</p><p><b>Future new infrastructure includes three major areas.</b></p><p>The second major contradiction is innovative development.</p><p>In the past, we relied on demographic dividends, factor dividends, and other factors to achieve high growth. In the future, we need innovation-driven development to achieve high-quality development. In this regard, I strongly advocate for new infrastructure. In recent years, the new infrastructure I advocate has moved from academic discussion to national strategy. As a scholar, this is my greatest contribution.</p><p><b>In the short term, new infrastructure will help expand demand and stabilize growth and employment; in the long term, it will help cultivate China's new technologies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300832\">New industry</a>With the new economy, we will create a new engine for China's economy.</b></p><p>Over the past 40 years, China has been a beneficiary of large-scale, advanced infrastructure construction. Why has India failed to seize the benefits of globalization while China has? A very important reason is infrastructure construction.</p><p><b>Future new infrastructure includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the technology field, represented by 5G, big data centers, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure projects in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as</b></p><p><b>In addition, new infrastructure in institutional areas such as the business environment, the opening up of the service sector, and the construction of a multi-tiered capital market.</b></p><p><b>China will face an aging population</b></p><p><b>This will be one of the largest gray rhinos in the future.</b></p><p><b>The third major contradiction is that China will face an accelerated aging population in the next 10 years, which will be one of the biggest gray rhinos in China in the future.</b></p><p>In the past 20 or 30 years, people didn't need to worry about population aging at all, but in the next 10 years, it will be a major event. Because China's baby boom occurred between 1962 and 1976, we benefited from the demographic dividend of this baby boom. China's high growth in the past was achieved by the hard work of this group of people when they were young, which was combined with the dividends of globalization.</p><p>But these people born in 1962 are now 59 years old and will retire next year.</p><p>This is why public policy is discussing extending retirement, because without policy adjustments, people born during China's future baby boom will accelerate their exit from the labor market—which is not my focus.</p><p><b>The key point is that China's aging population is not arriving slowly like in Europe and the United States. Because China has one-child policy, China's population aging will arrive and accelerate in the next 5 to 10 years.</b></p><p>Therefore, the 14th Five-Year Plan, including this government work report, proposed to elevate the response to population aging to a national strategy, because we are still in the stage of aging before becoming rich. Europe, the United States and Japan only started population aging after entering developed countries, and our per capita GDP has just exceeded US$10,000, so we are facing the challenge of aging. Therefore, I also call for the relaxation of birth control.</p><p>From the perspective of development trends, the speed and scale of China's population aging are unprecedented. In 2022, we will see a deeply aging society; in 2033, we will see a super-aging society; and by 2060, one in three people will be over 65 years old, while also facing the problem of a declining birthrate.</p><p>What problems will population aging bring?</p><p>The potential growth rate of China's economy will decline; Rising labor costs; The investment rate and savings rate declined; The social dependency ratio and the burden of elderly care are increasing; Government debt and social security pressures will rise, and more importantly, social vitality will decline.</p><p>Therefore, to address the challenges of population aging and declining birth rate, we must liberalize birth control as soon as possible, allow reproductive rights to return to families, accelerate the construction of a birth support system, and at the same time actively address population aging and build an age-friendly society. This is a major challenge we face.</p><p><b>The fundamental problems in the real estate market are the mismatch between people and land and excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>The fourth major contradiction is our toughest bubble—the real estate market.</b></p><p>As I mentioned before, the real estate market depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. We studied the real estate and housing systems of more than a dozen representative economies over the past century. The basic conclusion is that the housing system determines the real estate market. The system is its gene, and the gene has a very strong self-reproductive ability.</p><p>China's real estate market has reached its current state because our housing reforms were modeled after Hong Kong, which in turn modeled after the UK—both economies have high housing prices.</p><p>Strictly speaking, Hong Kong's housing reform is a lesson, far from a successful experience. The real estate policies of the United States and Japan were also unsuccessful because excessive money supply led to severe asset price bubbles and financial risks.</p><p>Which countries have successfully implemented real estate reform? Germany and Singapore, they engage in leasing, including strong control over their currencies.</p><p><b>Based on our research on international experience, we believe that the key to the long-term stable and healthy development of China's real estate market lies in the linkage between people and land and financial stability. People are demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.</b></p><p>Frankly speaking, our understanding and academic discussion of real estate are still far from truly solving the problem. The real estate chaos we have seen in the past year or two is not surprising at all within our research framework.</p><p>The fundamental problems in China's real estate market are the mismatch between people and land and the excessive money supply in the past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56ae95a7634a2c80c80e346c17e78a6\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, our approach of controlling large cities, developing small and medium-sized towns, and achieving balanced regional development based on the thinking of a planned economy was wrong. This approach led to the concentration of people in large metropolitan areas, but the lack of land quotas led to a mismatch between people and land, high housing prices in first- and second-tier cities, and high inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities—this is completely solvable.</p><p>From an economic and technological perspective, as a scholar, I can responsibly explain this to everyone.<b>There's still a solution to the current situation in China's real estate market; we still have ten years left.</b>However, we need to address the issue of understanding first, which is the main point of my report.</p><p><b>Taking the seven major reforms as a breakthrough</b></p><p><b>China will embark on a new cycle and a new development pattern.</b></p><p>With the seven major reforms as a breakthrough point, we believe that China will usher in a new cycle and a new development pattern.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27ea5fe7412ff498dda305649bad3b8\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The seven major reforms include—</p><p>The first is new infrastructure;</p><p>Secondly, there is the urbanization of metropolitan areas and urban clusters where people and land are linked and factors flow;</p><p>Third, liberalize the birth rate;</p><p>Fourth, it is necessary to connect the dual circulation of the capital market and technological innovation;</p><p>Fifth, large-scale tax and fee reductions;</p><p>Sixth, we should take the Sino-US trade friction as an opportunity to promote a new round of reform and opening up;</p><p>Seventh, establish our new nation-building strategy. What is a nation-building strategy? It is a strategy similar to the \"keep a low profile and bide our time\" strategy that we have benefited from over the past 40 years. Against the backdrop of seeing the trends and directions of the world economy in the coming decades, we have formulated a strategy that is beneficial to us in the long run. We are now in a period of strategic transformation.</p><p>These are the main points I would like to share with you today. We are undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and at the same time, we are also ushering in great opportunities unseen in a century. We firmly believe that with the implementation of a new round of reform and opening up and the release of future reform dividends, as long-term optimists of China's economy and capital market, we believe that the best investment opportunities in the future lie in China. Thank you!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping's speech today: The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping's speech today: The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-06 21:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>\"The best investment opportunities in the future are in China, and we are standing at the starting point of a new cycle. Because over the past 10 years, we have found the crux of China's problems, and because of some adjustments in the early stages, we have a very strong ability to execute.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Frankly speaking, since 2019, we have still been in a critical period, but many of our previous reform measures have entered a period of releasing their benefits.\"</b></p><p><b>\"China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the European and American economies have just emerged from the trough and are still quite fragile, and the pandemic is still a cause for concern, it still has a strong demand for monetary easing and stimulus.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Biden is now talking about where the $3 trillion will come from, and that he will raise corporate income taxes and tax the wealthy.\"</b></p><p><b>However, from a macroeconomic perspective, this logic does not make sense; $3 trillion is unlikely to be achieved through short-term taxation. In essence, the vast majority of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan was achieved through excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>\"The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, including gold, have been rising since last year, and the Bitcoin has also hit new highs, is that we have experienced an overabundance of dollar liquidity.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently because they are priced globally. China's CPI has not risen high, firstly because our monetary policy has normalized, and secondly because we are in the downward phase of the pig cycle. So the main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.\"</b></p><p><b>\"My understanding of modern monetary theory is that this may be an innovation in monetary finance, but it may be a major regression in macroeconomic thinking.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Future new infrastructure includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the technology field, represented by 5G, big data centers, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure projects in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as</b></p><p><b>And new infrastructure in institutional areas such as the business environment, the opening up of the service sector, and the construction of a multi-tiered capital market.</b></p><p><b>\"China will face an accelerated aging population in the next 10 years, which will be one of the biggest gray rhinos in China in the future.\"</b></p><p>The above is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Dongwu Securities</a>Chief Economist Ren Zeping shared his latest insightful views at the Dongwu Securities Macroeconomic Strategy Report Conference recently.</p><p>This strategy meeting marked Ren Zeping's first appearance since joining Dongwu Securities. Ren Zeping shared his views on China's economic transformation, the impact of global economic recovery and excessive dollar liquidity on the Chinese economy, as well as the four main contradictions and countermeasures it currently faces.</p><p>Smart Investors has compiled the full text of Ren Zeping's speech and is sharing it with you.</p><p>Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to share some of our views on China's future economic policies and markets in the most beautiful season and in the most beautiful city.</p><p><b>I am quite optimistic about the prospects for China's economic transformation.</b></p><p>I went into business in 2014 and put forward some views. As a long-time observer of the Chinese economy, I have traveled around the world over the years, first as a think tank at the State Council, and later as the chief economist at the world's largest real estate company. This time, I have returned to the capital market and the securities industry, and I would like to share some of our thoughts and observations on the Chinese economy.</p><p>Over the past few years, we have put forward some opinions and judgments every year. Fortunately, our judgments over the years have been generally acceptable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87d9c7b78c2913545af7eaeb0bcbc71c\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, in 2014, we proposed that the new 5% be better than the old 8%, and that 5000 points was not a dream; In 2015, we warned before the stock market crash that the altitude was high and the wind was strong, so take it slow. We also predicted that housing prices in first-tier cities would double and that there would be an L-shaped economy. A new cycle was proposed in 2017; In 2019, when the market was very pessimistic, we proposed that the best investment opportunity for the future would be in China.</p><p>In 2020, I advocated for new infrastructure, which later moved from academic discussion to national strategy. In the second half of last year, I advocated for liberalizing birth control. This time, I believe there will be significant adjustments to our birth and population policies in the future.</p><p>Over the years, I have also been thinking about what the mission of our generation of scholars is. I have always believed that a person's value depends on their value to others, to the institutions they serve, and to society.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, when the market was full of controversy, I suggested that the biggest logic or theme of the market this year should be inflation expectations.</p><p>Furthermore, regarding the real estate sector, I have proposed an analytical framework that focuses on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. This analytical framework is probably a widely circulated one in the real estate industry, including one used by large developers, many investors, and practitioners.</p><p>In general, as an economist and observer of the Chinese economy, although we rationally warned of risks during the market frenzy in 2015, for example. However, since 2014, I have been relatively optimistic among economists about the prospects for China's economic transformation.</p><p>Many people say that Dr. Ren is the biggest bull in China's economy and capital market. Standing at this point in time, when we look to the future, how do we truly understand the era we live in and our current economic situation?</p><p>I would like to share some of our observations and latest views with you from an objective, rational, professional, and independent perspective.</p><p><b>The new 5% is better than the old 8%</b></p><p><b>Don't worry about the slowdown in economic growth.</b></p><p><b>The most important thing is to improve the quality of growth</b></p><p>I will briefly discuss three aspects: first, China's medium- and long-term economic development trends; second, our current economic situation; and finally, the four major contradictions China is currently facing and how to deal with them.</p><p>First, the trend of China's economic development.</p><p>What kind of environment are we in? How can we recognize the characteristics of the environment and times we live in?</p><p>Over the past 10 years, China's economy has undergone a very significant change.</p><p>Over the past decade, and for the next decade, China's economic situation cannot be simply explained by economic fluctuations. Ten years ago, in the macroeconomic field, all mainstream economists participated in a major debate. China's economic growth rate has fallen from 14%, 10%, 9%, 8%, 7%, and now to 6%. What are the reasons for this continuous decline? How do we deal with this?</p><p>At the time, there were roughly two camps. One camp believed that the Chinese economy could return to high growth, so large-scale stimulus was needed to stimulate demand. Another view is what we proposed at the State Council's Development Center at the time: China's growth rate may be about to shift, and our way out is through reform to improve our total factor productivity and build a new growth platform and driving force mechanism.</p><p>This was the biggest debate in the macroeconomic field 10 years ago. Against that backdrop, when I went into business, I put forward the idea that the new 5% was better than the old 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1d1900d513ee51e74e970535a6e937\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I spent a considerable amount of time studying economic history, including economies in Latin America and Southeast Asia that fell into the middle-income trap, as well as countries such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan that have successfully transformed.</p><p>We have found that at a critical juncture in China's transition from a developing country to a developed country, if China's per capita GDP reaches $10,000, we will become a developed country by $12,600, which means we will be a developed country in the next 5 to 10 years.</p><p>However, many economies refused to slow down their growth rates and attempted to stimulate them back to a high-growth platform through monetary easing. As a result, they maintained the old growth model, triggered a major financial crisis, and ultimately fell into the so-called middle-income trap.</p><p>Latin American and many Southeast Asian economies have made such serious mistakes. Only a few, about 10%, such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, have successfully promoted reforms and adopted a reform-driven approach as they moved from developing economies to developed economies.</p><p><b>At that time, we proposed a shift in growth rate and that we must promote the reform of new energy sources, rather than a simple monetary stimulus, which could solve the problems posed to us by this era.</b></p><p>Why did I propose that the new 5% be better than the old 8%? It means everyone<b>Don't worry about the economic growth slowing down; the most important thing is to improve the quality of your growth.</b></p><p>The new 5% growth platform built through reforms in the future will be better than the old 8% growth platform that was barely maintained by itself in the past. Interest rates have come down, the stock market has gone bullish, industries have upgraded, corporate profits have increased, residents' lives have improved, and government prestige has increased. Reform is the only way out, but stimulus will brew a crisis.</p><p>The L-shaped economy is also what I proposed. The new normal is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development. These major assertions by the central government confirm the views advocated by our group of economists.</p><p>The reason why economists are optimistic about the prospects of China's economic reform and transformation in this round is firstly because in the past 10 years, our major debate in the macroeconomic field has solved a very important problem: understanding the problem, realizing that we need to slow down growth, and realizing that the new 5% is better than the old 8%. Although the future may not be high-speed growth, it will be high-quality development.</p><p>After we resolved the issue of understanding, our policies and reform measures over the years have been in place. At the time, I read nearly a hundred monographs to study the transformation experiences of countries like South Korea, Japan, and Germany, and I was very engrossed in this research.</p><p>The best textbook is actually economic history, because economics cannot be experimented with, but economic history can give us a lot of inspiration.</p><p><b>We are still in a critical phase.</b></p><p><b>However, many of the previous reform measures</b></p><p><b>The period of releasing dividends has entered.</b></p><p>Many people say that our policies invent a new term every year, which reflects a lack of sufficient observation and understanding of China.</p><p>In fact, these statements are precisely the result of our understanding of China's current problems and the continuous deepening of our countermeasures. As a frontline economist, I have a deep understanding of this.</p><p><b>China's current round of reforms is divided into three stages. The first stage is the process of forming reform expectations; The second stage is the painful period of implementation; The third stage is the release period of dividends.</b></p><p>The first stage was the period of formation and controversy regarding reform expectations, roughly from 2012 to 2015. The implementation and growing pains of these challenges were 2016, 2017, and 2018. At that time, the whole society, including our capital market, was filled with a very pessimistic atmosphere. There were talks of exiting the market and \"washing up and sleeping\" because we were in a period of growing pains.</p><p>In fact<b>Frankly speaking, since 2019, we have still been in a critical period, but many of our previous reform measures have entered a period of releasing their benefits.</b></p><p>A major turning point actually came at the end of 2015 when the central government proposed supply-side structural reform, which was of great transformative significance.</p><p>At that time, we proposed \"reducing overcapacity, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weaknesses,\" which included reducing overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and addressing Simply put, economics calls it \"breaking down the old and establishing the new.\" We need to break down the excess capacity, excessive inventory, and risks of financial leverage accumulated by past high growth.</p><p>Over the years, despite the Sino-US trade friction and the pandemic, China has not faced major financial risks because we have built a hedge against risks in advance and made preparations in advance.</p><p>Reducing costs and addressing shortcomings is what establishing a new foundation is all about. We are cultivating our own new economy, new technologies, and new industries. Later, we came to the three critical battles, including the dual circulation, which were all challenges that we were continuously deepening reforms to meet the challenges of the new 5% being better than the old 8% and high-quality development.</p><p>In fact, for example, promoting the registration-based IPO system reform, building a multi-tiered capital market, and relying on innovation to drive the high-quality development of the real economy are logically consistent.</p><p>Innovative development ultimately relies on the capital market. The traditional bank-led financing model is more suitable for our former era of heavy chemical industry. In the future, China will have a large number of venture capitalists and new economies, which will require a multi-tiered capital market.</p><p>This time, the capital market has risen to a very important position, including things like the registration-based IPO system reform and anti-monopoly measures. These are all logically consistent, such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality, and high-level opening up to the outside world, which I will not go into detail about.</p><p>The general conclusion is that,<b>The best investment opportunities for the future lie in China, and we are standing at the starting point of a new cycle.</b>Over the past 10 years, we have identified the crux of China's problems and, thanks to some early adjustments, have acquired very strong execution capabilities.</p><p>This is the environmental context in which we live.</p><p><b>In 2021, we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery.</b></p><p>Now let me report to you on our current economic situation.</p><p>Without a doubt, China has taken the lead globally in fighting the pandemic and resuming production.</p><p>Our GDP growth rates for the four quarters of last year were -6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.5% respectively. What does 6.5% mean? China's GDP growth rate was 6.1% in 2019, and by the fourth quarter of last year, China had returned to its potential growth rate level.</p><p>Moreover, among the world's major economies, China was the only one to achieve positive growth last year.</p><p><b>Therefore, since 2019, we have begun to enjoy the benefits of reform, but this does not mean that the reform task has been completed.</b>We still face many challenges ahead, but the overall approach has been reversed.</p><p><b>A key feature of 2021 is that we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery.</b>。</p><p>China's economy recovered in the second quarter of last year. This year, with the large-scale vaccination rollout in the United States, Europe, and Japan, and Biden's upcoming $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, we may see a global recovery.</p><p>What does $3 trillion mean? In 2009, we provided a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package with 3 trillion US dollars, which was an infrastructure stimulus plan worth nearly 20 trillion yuan.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy</b></p><p><b>Europe and the United States still have strong demands for monetary easing and stimulus.</b></p><p>Because the recovery cycles of China, the United States, and Europe are different, China was the first to recover, while the United States and Europe only began to enter the recovery phase this year. As a result, everyone's policy mix and demands are different.</p><p>China is entering a cyclical turning point in broad liquidity as inflation expectations rise and the economy returns to potential growth rates. We are beginning to normalize monetary policy and tighten structural credit policies in areas such as real estate and local government debt.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, I proposed that China was reaching a liquidity turning point. At the time, everyone argued with this view, and this judgment has recently been verified.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the economies of Europe and the United States have just emerged from the trough and are still quite fragile, and the pandemic is still a cause for concern, it still has a strong demand for monetary easing and stimulus.</b></p><p>Therefore, the global economic recovery in Europe, the United States, and China has had different trajectories, leading to different policy demands. We have begun to normalize monetary policy, and Europe and the United States may still be in a phase of low interest rates and easy monetary stimulus, which has led to global inflation expectations.</p><p>If we were to choose a theme for the short-term macroeconomic situation in 2021, perhaps the biggest characteristic would be inflation expectations.</p><p>We are facing inflation expectations, including the resonance of the global economic recovery, Biden's plan to revitalize the United States, the launch of a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, and the flood of dollar liquidity.</p><p><b>Flood of dollar liquidity</b></p><p><b>China faces pressure from imported inflation</b></p><p>Why did we talk about the excessive liquidity of the US dollar at the end?</p><p><b>This time, Biden told the public where the $3 trillion would come from, and that he would raise corporate income taxes and tax the wealthy.</b></p><p><b>However, from a macroeconomic perspective, this logic does not make sense; $3 trillion is unlikely to be achieved through short-term taxation. In fact, the vast majority of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan was achieved through excessive money supply.</b></p><p>That's why I'm going to focus on this issue.</p><p>Many people say that this global inflation is due to a recovery in demand, which is far from sufficient to support such high inflation, including the formation of broad asset price bubbles.</p><p>The European and American economies are still on the floor, just showing signs of recovery. The US stock market has hit new highs, and housing prices on the two major coastlines have hit new highs. What are the reasons for this? Excessive money supply and excessive dollar liquidity.</p><p>Since the outbreak of the pandemic last year, the United States has launched QE, QQE, and unlimited QE, buying US Treasury Bond and even commercial bills by printing money.</p><p>Look at the yellow line. This yellow line represents the growth rate of US M2, which is the growth rate of the US broad money supply. This is the highest value in 20 years, and it is astonishingly high.</p><p>Later, I will talk about the dilemma and changes facing the entire field of macroeconomics. Either you continue down the path of monetary easing, with 63% of the world's foreign exchange reserves being in US dollars. The US's excessive issuance of US dollars is actually equivalent to sharing the costs with the whole world, but we cannot do that.</p><p>Because we are a non-reserve currency country, if China's currency is over-issued, it is actually shared by residents, or their cash flow assets are diluted.</p><p>This is<b>The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, and even gold have all risen since last year, and the Bitcoin has repeatedly hit new highs, is that we have experienced an overabundance of dollar liquidity.</b>This is the situation we are facing.</p><p>Gold is a physical currency, while Bitcoin is a supranational currency. The surge in gold and Bitcoin, including the significant rise in broad inflation, demonstrates public distrust of national sovereign fiat currencies represented by the US dollar. This has led to a significant increase in inflation expectations this year.</p><p>The concept of inflation is quite controversial in economics, but it tells a very common-sense story: inflation is a monetary phenomenon at any time and in any place. If more money is printed, something will always rise, and if there is a flood of money, commodities will generally rise.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, China has been promoting the normalization of monetary policy. As the Premier said at the Two Sessions, we did not issue too much money last year, so there is no need for us to make a sharp turn this year. Instead, we will implement the normalization of monetary policy. However, it is worth noting that because commodities are priced globally, although China's overall inflation is not high, the PPI and industrial product prices are rising.</p><p>The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently because they are globally priced, and China's CPI has not risen high. This is partly due to the normalization of our monetary policy, and partly because we are currently in the downward phase of the pig cycle.<b>The main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.</b></p><p><b>This economic recovery is a K-shaped recovery.</b></p><p><b>The global economy and macroeconomic policy have reached a crossroads</b></p><p>In this round of economic recovery, we are facing a very important new phenomenon called the K-shaped recovery. This is a topic that has been discussed a lot in the macroeconomic field recently.</p><p>In the past, economic recovery generally included U-shaped recovery and V-shaped recovery, which meant that against the backdrop of economic recovery, the situation of most people improved, overall income improved, and employment improved.</p><p>K-shaped recovery, on the other hand, means that some people are improving while others are getting worse. Although the overall economy is recovering, the stock and housing markets are rising, and the prices of various assets are rising, the situation of some people, or even most people, is actually getting worse.</p><p>Why did the K-shaped recovery occur? That brings us back to the global over-reliance on currencies.</p><p>I think<b>The global economy and macroeconomic policies have reached a crossroads.</b>I remember one year Dalio came to China to promote his new book, and he hired four people to endorse him, and I was one of them. He concluded by saying that the current income gap in the United States is very similar to that before the Great Depression, which consisted of financial crises, economic crises, social crises, political crises, and finally a military crisis—the outbreak of war.</p><p>According to this logic, its fundamental cause is not an economic problem, but a social problem, or rather, an income distribution problem.</p><p>In fact, the world faces similar challenges because over-reliance on currency has led to a K-shaped recovery and a widening wealth and income gap, which in turn has led to a series of trends such as populism and anti-globalization.</p><p><b>MMT may be an innovation in monetary finance.</b></p><p><b>However, this could be a major setback in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>History is very similar; it was a similar scene 100 years ago. What should we do when we stand at this crossroads? Economists need to provide solutions. Currently, there are two factions in the field of economics. One faction, represented by China, wants to return to the normalization of monetary policy, promote reforms, and improve total factor productivity.</p><p>The other school is MMT, Modern Monetary Theory. Simply put, its concept is that taxation determines the issuance of currency. As long as national sovereignty is not a problem, there can be no upper limit to the issuance of currency. In other words, there should be no upper limit to government debt and it can continue to circulate indefinitely through government bond issuance, including the issuance of currency.</p><p>This is the modern monetary theory that everyone is talking about now. It really has gone too far down the path of monetary stimulus. My understanding of modern monetary theory is...<b>This may be an innovation in monetary finance, but it could be a major setback in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>However, we are fortunate that China did not choose this theory, so last year the mainstream public policy voice in China was critical of MMT.</p><p>When it comes to views on major asset classes, the clues are very clear. As a veteran researcher who has analyzed the macroeconomic situation for 20 years, I believe that in the end, we must return to the most fundamental logic. The main logic behind this year's economic situation is inflation expectations, which means that the beneficiaries this year will definitely be undervalued stocks with price increase expectations.</p><p>Therefore, these are the companies that have performed well in the market recently. Those with high valuations over the past two years have been driving down valuations due to rising interest rates. In the end, these basic logics all hold true.</p><p><b>The Sino-US trade friction is long-term and severe.</b></p><p>Finally, I would like to talk about the four major contradictions we are currently facing and their countermeasures.</p><p><b>The biggest contradiction is undoubtedly the Sino-US trade friction, which is what we call a major change unseen in a century.</b></p><p>What is the essence of the Sino-US trade friction?</p><p>Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy is now 70% of that of the United States, and more importantly, it is still growing at a rate of 5 to 6%, which is 2 to 3 times the potential growth rate of the United States. If this trend continues, around 2030, China's economy will surpass that of the United States and become the world's largest economy.</p><p>For every Chinese person, this means the day when the Chinese nation will return to the top of the world. Moreover, we are fortunate to have caught up with the tide of the times, and we can see history. However, looking at the history of the world economy, more than 100 years ago, since the United States surpassed Britain to become the world's largest economy, no one has surpassed it.</p><p>Two challengers emerged, the former Soviet Union and Japan, both of which engaged in conflicts with the United States, not simply in the trade sphere, but also in geopolitical, ideological, financial, and even military confrontations.</p><p>China will once again become the world's largest economy in 7 to 10 years. What will happen during this time? The answer is very clear.<b>The essence of the Sino-US trade friction is to curb the rise of emerging powers by incumbent hegemonic countries; it is long-term and severe. Our best response is to promote a new round of reform and opening up with greater courage and remain steadfast. We must remain clear-headed, calm, and strategically focused in this regard.</b></p><p>However, I also strongly agree with the appeal of an elder, Mr. Kissinger: for world peace and long-term prosperity, China and the United States must engage in more dialogue and exchanges, and both sides must make adjustments, because the entire world governance landscape has undergone profound changes.</p><p>From the United States' perspective, the United States needs to adjust its mindset over the next decade to accept a rising China that is integrated into globalization. China also needs to adjust its mindset. Once we become strong, we must assume global responsibilities and respect the global rules of the game.</p><p><b>Future new infrastructure includes three major areas.</b></p><p>The second major contradiction is innovative development.</p><p>In the past, we relied on demographic dividends, factor dividends, and other factors to achieve high growth. In the future, we need innovation-driven development to achieve high-quality development. In this regard, I strongly advocate for new infrastructure. In recent years, the new infrastructure I advocate has moved from academic discussion to national strategy. As a scholar, this is my greatest contribution.</p><p><b>In the short term, new infrastructure will help expand demand and stabilize growth and employment; in the long term, it will help cultivate China's new technologies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300832\">New industry</a>With the new economy, we will create a new engine for China's economy.</b></p><p>Over the past 40 years, China has been a beneficiary of large-scale, advanced infrastructure construction. Why has India failed to seize the benefits of globalization while China has? A very important reason is infrastructure construction.</p><p><b>Future new infrastructure includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the technology field, represented by 5G, big data centers, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure projects in areas related to people's livelihoods, such as</b></p><p><b>In addition, new infrastructure in institutional areas such as the business environment, the opening up of the service sector, and the construction of a multi-tiered capital market.</b></p><p><b>China will face an aging population</b></p><p><b>This will be one of the largest gray rhinos in the future.</b></p><p><b>The third major contradiction is that China will face an accelerated aging population in the next 10 years, which will be one of the biggest gray rhinos in China in the future.</b></p><p>In the past 20 or 30 years, people didn't need to worry about population aging at all, but in the next 10 years, it will be a major event. Because China's baby boom occurred between 1962 and 1976, we benefited from the demographic dividend of this baby boom. China's high growth in the past was achieved by the hard work of this group of people when they were young, which was combined with the dividends of globalization.</p><p>But these people born in 1962 are now 59 years old and will retire next year.</p><p>This is why public policy is discussing extending retirement, because without policy adjustments, people born during China's future baby boom will accelerate their exit from the labor market—which is not my focus.</p><p><b>The key point is that China's aging population is not arriving slowly like in Europe and the United States. Because China has one-child policy, China's population aging will arrive and accelerate in the next 5 to 10 years.</b></p><p>Therefore, the 14th Five-Year Plan, including this government work report, proposed to elevate the response to population aging to a national strategy, because we are still in the stage of aging before becoming rich. Europe, the United States and Japan only started population aging after entering developed countries, and our per capita GDP has just exceeded US$10,000, so we are facing the challenge of aging. Therefore, I also call for the relaxation of birth control.</p><p>From the perspective of development trends, the speed and scale of China's population aging are unprecedented. In 2022, we will see a deeply aging society; in 2033, we will see a super-aging society; and by 2060, one in three people will be over 65 years old, while also facing the problem of a declining birthrate.</p><p>What problems will population aging bring?</p><p>The potential growth rate of China's economy will decline; Rising labor costs; The investment rate and savings rate declined; The social dependency ratio and the burden of elderly care are increasing; Government debt and social security pressures will rise, and more importantly, social vitality will decline.</p><p>Therefore, to address the challenges of population aging and declining birth rate, we must liberalize birth control as soon as possible, allow reproductive rights to return to families, accelerate the construction of a birth support system, and at the same time actively address population aging and build an age-friendly society. This is a major challenge we face.</p><p><b>The fundamental problems in the real estate market are the mismatch between people and land and excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>The fourth major contradiction is our toughest bubble—the real estate market.</b></p><p>As I mentioned before, the real estate market depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. We studied the real estate and housing systems of more than a dozen representative economies over the past century. The basic conclusion is that the housing system determines the real estate market. The system is its gene, and the gene has a very strong self-reproductive ability.</p><p>China's real estate market has reached its current state because our housing reforms were modeled after Hong Kong, which in turn modeled after the UK—both economies have high housing prices.</p><p>Strictly speaking, Hong Kong's housing reform is a lesson, far from a successful experience. The real estate policies of the United States and Japan were also unsuccessful because excessive money supply led to severe asset price bubbles and financial risks.</p><p>Which countries have successfully implemented real estate reform? Germany and Singapore, they engage in leasing, including strong control over their currencies.</p><p><b>Based on our research on international experience, we believe that the key to the long-term stable and healthy development of China's real estate market lies in the linkage between people and land and financial stability. People are demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.</b></p><p>Frankly speaking, our understanding and academic discussion of real estate are still far from truly solving the problem. The real estate chaos we have seen in the past year or two is not surprising at all within our research framework.</p><p>The fundamental problems in China's real estate market are the mismatch between people and land and the excessive money supply in the past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56ae95a7634a2c80c80e346c17e78a6\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, our approach of controlling large cities, developing small and medium-sized towns, and achieving balanced regional development based on the thinking of a planned economy was wrong. This approach led to the concentration of people in large metropolitan areas, but the lack of land quotas led to a mismatch between people and land, high housing prices in first- and second-tier cities, and high inventory in third- and fourth-tier cities—this is completely solvable.</p><p>From an economic and technological perspective, as a scholar, I can responsibly explain this to everyone.<b>There's still a solution to the current situation in China's real estate market; we still have ten years left.</b>However, we need to address the issue of understanding first, which is the main point of my report.</p><p><b>Taking the seven major reforms as a breakthrough</b></p><p><b>China will embark on a new cycle and a new development pattern.</b></p><p>With the seven major reforms as a breakthrough point, we believe that China will usher in a new cycle and a new development pattern.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27ea5fe7412ff498dda305649bad3b8\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The seven major reforms include—</p><p>The first is new infrastructure;</p><p>Secondly, there is the urbanization of metropolitan areas and urban clusters where people and land are linked and factors flow;</p><p>Third, liberalize the birth rate;</p><p>Fourth, it is necessary to connect the dual circulation of the capital market and technological innovation;</p><p>Fifth, large-scale tax and fee reductions;</p><p>Sixth, we should take the Sino-US trade friction as an opportunity to promote a new round of reform and opening up;</p><p>Seventh, establish our new nation-building strategy. What is a nation-building strategy? It is a strategy similar to the \"keep a low profile and bide our time\" strategy that we have benefited from over the past 40 years. Against the backdrop of seeing the trends and directions of the world economy in the coming decades, we have formulated a strategy that is beneficial to us in the long run. We are now in a period of strategic transformation.</p><p>These are the main points I would like to share with you today. We are undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and at the same time, we are also ushering in great opportunities unseen in a century. We firmly believe that with the implementation of a new round of reform and opening up and the release of future reform dividends, as long-term optimists of China's economy and capital market, we believe that the best investment opportunities in the future lie in China. Thank you!</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe2ee4cce3bf07f1e485cf42ddcb0f7","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128854887","content_text":"“未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。”\n“从2019年以后，坦率地讲，我们还处在一个攻坚期，但是我们前期的很多改革的举措，进入到了红利的释放期。”\n“中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。”\n“拜登这次对外讲，3万亿美元从哪里来，他会提高企业所得税和向富人征税。\n但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。实质上这3万亿美元的基建刺激计划绝大部分是通过超发货币。”\n“为什么从去年以来，股市、房市、大宗商品，包括黄金都在涨，比特币也连创新高，根本的原因是我们迎来了美元流动性的泛滥。”\n“我们的基础原材料价格，包括铜、钢这些，最近涨得很厉害，因为它是全球定价的，中国的CPI涨的并不高，一是因为我们货币政策正常化，二是因为正好处于猪周期的下行区间，所以中国面临的主要的问题就是输入性通胀的压力。”\n“我对现代货币理论的理解是，这可能是货币金融的一次创新，但是可能是宏观经济思想的一次大的倒退。”\n“未来的新基建包括三大领域：\n5G、大数据中心、人工智能，新能源汽车、充电桩为代表的科技领域新基建；\n教育医疗为代表的民生领域新基建；\n以及营商环境，服务业开放，多层次资本市场建设等制度领域的新基建。”\n“中国在未来10年将会面临加速到来的人口老龄化，这将是未来中国内部最大的灰犀牛之一。”\n以上，是东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平，日前在东吴证券宏观策略报告会上，分享的最新精彩观点。\n这场策略会是任泽平加盟东吴证券后的首场亮相，任泽平分享了对于中国经济转型的看法，全球经济复苏、美元流动性泛滥对中国经济的影响，以及当下面临的四个主要矛盾和对策。\n聪明投资者整理了任泽平演讲全文，分享给大家。\n尊敬的各位来宾，女士们、先生们，非常高兴在最美的季节、最美的城市，和大家介绍一下我们对未来中国经济政策和市场的一些看法。\n对中国经济转型的前景我是比较乐观的\n我在2014年下海，提出过一些观点。作为一个中国经济的长期的观察者，这些年我也算是周游列国，先是在国务院做智囊，后来在全球最大的房地产企业做首席经济学家，这一次重新回到资本市场，回到券业，想给大家介绍一下我们对中国经济的一些思考和观察。\n过去这几年，我们每年都会提出一些看法和判断，很幸运，这些年大的判断基本还可以。\n\n比如说在2014年，我们提出叫新5%比旧8%好，5000点不是梦；在2015年，我们在股灾前预警，叫海拔已高风大慢走，并预测一线房价翻一倍，还有经济L型；在2017年提出新周期；2019年，当时市场非常悲观的时候，我们提出否极泰来和未来最好的投资机会就在中国。\n在2020年，我倡导新基建，后来从学术讨论走向国家战略。在去年下半年，我倡导放开生育，这一次关于我们的生育政策和人口政策，我认为在未来会出现比较大的调整。\n这些年我也一直在想，我们这一代学者的使命究竟是什么？我始终认为一个人的价值取决于对他人、对所服务的机构、以及社会的价值。\n在今年初，当市场充满争议的时候，我当时提，今年市场最大的逻辑或者主题应该是通胀预期。\n而且关于房地产领域，我提出过一个分析框架，叫房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。这个分析框架可能是房地产领域广为流传的，包括大的开发商、很多投资者、从业人员用的一个分析框架。\n总的来说，作为一名经济学家、中国经济的观察者，虽然比如在2015年市场比较疯狂的时候，我们理性地提示风险。但是在2014年以来，对中国经济转型的前景，我在经济学家里面是比较乐观的。\n很多人说任博士是中国经济和资本市场最大的多头。站在现在这样一个时点，我们看未来，究竟怎么来认清我们所处的时代，以及我们当前的经济形势。\n我想从一个客观、理性、专业、独立的角度，来给大家分享我们的一些观察和最新看法。\n新5%比旧8%好\n不要担心经济增速换挡\n最重要的是提高增长质量\n我大致讲三个方面的内容：第一个是关于中国中长期的经济发展趋势，第二个是关于我们当前的经济形势，最后讲中国现在面临的四大矛盾以及应对。\n第一个，中国经济的发展的趋势。\n我们处在一个什么样的大环境背景之下？怎么认清我们所处的这种环境和时代的特点？\n在过去10年，中国经济发生了一个非常明显的变化。\n过去这10多年，包括未来的10年，中国经济形势不是可以用经济波动来简单解释的。也就是在10年前，在宏观领域，所有主流经济学家都参与了一场大的论战。中国经济（增速）从14%、10%、9%、8%、7%，现在到6%，这种不断地下行是什么原因？我们怎么去应对？\n当时大致分为两派，一派是认为中国经济还能重回高增长，所以要进行大规模的刺激，刺激需求；另一派就是我们当时在国务院发展中心提出的，中国可能要增速换挡了，而且我们的出路是通过改革，提升我们的全要素生产率，构筑我们新的增长平台和动力的机制。\n这是10年前在宏观领域最大的一场论战。在那个背景下，当时我下海提出一个观点叫新5%比旧8%好。\n\n我是花了好长一段时间研究经济史，包括拉美、东南亚落入中等收入陷阱的这些经济体，以及转型成功的德、日、韩、中国台湾等等。\n我们发现，在从发展中国家迈向发达国家的关键时点上，中国人均GDP一万美元露头，12,600我们就成发达国家了，也就是未来5~10年。\n但是很多经济体拒绝增速换挡，试图通过货币对放水刺激，把它重新拉回到高增长的平台上，结果是维持了旧的增长模式，并引发了大的金融危机，最终掉入所谓中等收入陷阱。\n拉美、很多东南亚的经济体都犯过这样严重的错误，只有少数的，大约只占10%左右的经济体，德、日、韩、中国台湾，它们成功推动了改革，在从发展中经济体迈向发达经济体门槛的时候，采取了推动改革的方式。\n在那个时候我们就提出增速换挡，一定要推动新能源的改革，而不是一个简单的货币刺激，能够解决这个时代给我们的命题。\n我当时提出叫新5%比旧8%好的原因是什么？就是大家不要担心经济增速换挡了，最重要的是提高你的增长质量。\n未来通过改革构筑的5%的新增长平台，比过去靠自己勉强维持的8%的旧增长平台要好，利率下来了，股市走牛了，产业升级了、企业利润上升了，居民生活改善了，政府威信提高了，改革是唯一的出路，刺激将酝酿危机。\n经济L型也是我提的，新常态，从高速增长转向高质量发展，中央的这些大论断，印证了我们这一派经济学家所主张的观点。\n为什么在经济学家里面，我们看好中国经济这一轮的改革转型前景，首先是因为在过去10年，我们这场宏观领域的大论战，我就解决了一个很重要的问题，就是认识问题，认识到了我们要增速换挡，而且认识到了以后，叫新5%比旧8%好，未来虽然不是高速增长，但是是高质量的发展。\n我们解决了认识问题以后，这些年我们的政策和改革措施是到位的。我当时为了研究像当年韩国、日本包括德国的转型经验，前前后后看的专著将近上百本，当时非常沉迷于这个研究。\n最好的教科书实际上是经济史，因为经济学做不了实验，但是经济史给我们很大的启发。\n我们还处在一个攻坚期\n但前期的很多改革举措\n进入到了红利的释放期\n很多人说每年我们的政策都发明一个新词，这是对中国缺乏足够的观察和状态。\n事实上这些表述恰恰是我们对中国当前问题的认识，以及应对措施不断深化的结果。作为一线的经济学家，我是非常有感触的。\n中国的这一轮改革分为三个阶段，第一个阶段是改革预期形成的过程；第二个阶段是落地攻坚的阵痛期；第三个阶段是红利的释放期。\n第一个阶段是改革预期形成和争议的时期，大致是2012年到2015年，落地攻坚以及攻坚的阵痛期，是2016、2017、2018年，那时候整个社会，包括我们资本市场弥漫着非常悲观的气氛，什么离场论、洗洗睡，那是因为我们处在一个阵痛期。\n事实上从2019年以后，坦率地讲，我们还处在一个攻坚期，但是我们前期的很多改革的举措，进入到了红利的释放期。\n一个比较大的转折实际上是在2015年底，中央提出供给侧结构性改革，这个是非常有转折性意义的。\n当时我们提出“三去一降一补”，去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板。简单来讲，经济学讲叫“破旧立新”，我们要把过去高增长积累下来的过剩产能，过多的库存以及金融杠杆的风险给它破掉。\n在过去的这些年，我们面对中美贸易摩擦，面对疫情，中国没有出现大的金融风险，因为我们提前扎好了风险的篱笆，是提前做好了准备的。\n降成本、补短板，这就是立新。我们培育自己新的经济，新的技术、新的产业。后来到了三大攻坚战，包括双循环，都是我们在不断深化改革，应对新5%比旧8%好、高质量发展的挑战。\n事实上，比如说推动注册制改革，建设多层次资本市场，依靠创新推动实体经济的高质量发展，它是逻辑自洽的。\n创新发展，最后要依靠资本市场，传统依赖银行主导的这种融资模式，比较匹配我们原来重化工业的时代，未来中国大量的风投、新经济，它需要多层次资本市场。\n这一次资本市场上升到了很重要的位置，包括像注册制改革、反垄断，这些东西都是逻辑自洽的，包括碳达峰、碳中和、高水平的对外开放等等，我不再赘述。\n总的结论就是，未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。\n这就是我们所处的环境背景。\n2021年我们会面对全球经济复苏的共振\n现在给大家报告一下我们当前的经济形势。\n毫无疑问，中国在抗击疫情和恢复生产方面，走在了全球的前面。\n我们去年4个季度的GDP增速分别是-6.8%，3.2%，4.9%和6.5%，6.5%是什么概念呢？2019年中国GDP增速是6.1%，在去年四季度，中国已经回到了潜在增长率水平。\n而且在全球的主要经济体当中，去年中国是唯一实现正增长的。\n所以从2019年以后，我们已经开始享受改革红利了，但是并不意味着改革的任务完成，我们后面还面临很多的挑战，但是大的思路扭转过来了。\n2021年一个很重要的特点就是，我们会面对全球经济复苏的共振。\n去年二季度，中国经济复苏，今年随着美国、欧洲、日本疫苗的大规模接种，以及拜登要推出一个高达3万亿美元的基建刺激计划，我们可能会迎来全球的复苏共振。\n3万亿美元是什么概念？我们2009年4万亿刺激，3万亿美元，那是将近20万亿人民币的基建刺激计划。\n中国正在回归货币政策正常化\n欧美对货币放水和刺激仍然有很强诉求\n因为中国、美国、欧洲复苏的周期阶段不一样，中国是率先复苏，美国欧洲在今年才开始进入复苏阶段。这样大家的政策组合和诉求也不一样。\n中国正在迎来广义流动性的周期性拐点，因为随着通胀预期的上升，经济回归潜在增长率水平，我们开始进行货币政策正常化的操作，以及在房地产和地方债等领域进行结构性的信用政策收紧。\n我在今年初提出中国正迎来流动性的拐点，当时大家很argue这个观点，最近也验证了这个判断。\n中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。\n所以欧美包括中国这一轮的全球经济复苏，它的轨道是不一样的，导致了政策的诉求不一样。我们开始货币政策正常化了，欧美可能还在一个低利率、放水刺激的阶段，这就带来了全球通胀预期。\n如果说2021年我们要定一个短期宏观经济形式的主题词，或最大的一个特点，就是通胀预期。\n我们迎来了通胀预期，包括全球经济复苏的共振，包括拜登要重振美国，推出了3万亿美元基建刺激计划，以及美元流动性的泛滥。\n美元流动性泛滥\n中国面临输入性通胀的压力\n为什么最后讲美元流动性泛滥呢？\n拜登这次对外讲，3万亿美元从哪里来，他会提高企业所得税和向富人征税。\n但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。实质上这3万亿美元的基建刺激计划绝大部分是通过超发货币。\n这就是为什么我要给大家重点讲的一个问题。\n这一次的全球的通胀，很多人讲是因为需求恢复了，需求的恢复程度远远支撑不了如此高的通胀，包括广义资产价格的泡沫化。\n现在欧美经济还在地板上趴着，刚刚露出复苏的苗头，美国的股市连创新高，两大海岸线的房价连创新高，什么原因？货币的超发、美元流动性的泛滥。\n自从去年疫情以来，美国推出QE、QQE、无上限的QE，通过印钞票买美国的国债，甚至买商票。\n大家看黄色的线，这条黄色线是美国M2增速，就是美国的广义货币供应增速。这是20年来最高值，而且是惊人的高。\n后面我会给大家讲，整个宏观经济学领域面临的一个困境和变局，要么你就在放水的这条路上一路走下去，全球63%的外汇储备是美元，美国超发美元实际上相当于它把成本向全世界进行了分担，但是我们不行。\n因为我们是非储备货币国家，中国的货币如果超发实际上是被居民分担了，或者居民的现金流资产被稀释了。\n这就是为什么从去年以来，股市、房市、大宗商品，包括黄金都在涨，比特币也连创新高，根本的原因是我们迎来了美元流动性的泛滥，这就是我们面临的情况。\n黄金是实物货币，比特币是超主权货币，黄金和比特币的大涨，包括广义通胀的明显上涨，说明大家对以美元为代表的国家主权的信用货币的不信任。进而带来了今年通胀预期的明显抬升。\n通货膨胀的概念在经济学上颇具争议，但是它讲述了一个非常常识性的问题，通货膨胀在任何时间、任何地点都是货币现象，钞票印多了总有东西会涨，如果货币泛滥了，商品就会普涨。\n而中国在去年下半年以来，就开始推动货币政策的正常化，正如总理这次在两会讲的，我们去年没有超发货币，所以今年我们也没必要急转弯，而是贯彻货币政策的正常化，但是值得留意的是，因为大宗商品是全球定价的，所以中国虽然整体通胀不高，但是PPI、工业品价格在抬升。\n我们的基础原材料价格，包括铜、钢这些，最近涨得很厉害，因为它是全球定价的，中国的CPI涨的并不高，一是因为我们货币政策正常化，二是因为正好处于猪周期的下行区间，所以中国面临的主要的问题就是输入性通胀的压力。\n这一轮经济复苏是K型复苏\n全球经济和宏观政策已经走到了十字路口\n这一轮经济复苏，我们面临一个很重要的新现象，叫K型复苏。这是最近宏观经济领域大家讨论比较多的一个话题。\n以前经济复苏一般有u型复苏、v型复苏，就是在经济复苏的背景下，大部分人的境况改善了，整体收入改善，就业改善。\n而K型复苏则是一部分人改善，一部分人变差了，虽然经济整体是复苏的，股市房市都在涨，各种资产价格都在涨，但是一部分人，甚至大部分人的境况反而是变差的。\n为什么出现了K型复苏的现象呢？那就要说回到全球对货币的过度依赖。\n我认为全球经济和宏观政策，已经走到十字路口了。我记得有一年达里奥来中国推销他的新书，他找了4个人帮他站台，我是其中一位。他最后讲到美国现在的收入分配的差距和大萧条前很相似，当年的大萧条是金融危机、经济危机、社会危机、政治危机，到最后军事危机——爆发了战争。\n按照这个逻辑讲，它根本的原因不是经济问题，而是社会问题，或者说是收入分配问题。\n其实全球都面临类似的挑战，因为对货币的过度依赖导致了K型复苏以及财富收入差距拉大，进而导致了民粹主义、逆全球化等等这一系列思潮。\nMMT可能是货币金融的一次创新\n但可能是宏观经济思想的一次大倒退\n历史非常相似，100年前也是类似的景象。站在这个十字路口该怎么办？经济学家要给出解决方案，现在整个经济学领域有两派，一派是以中国为代表，要回归货币政策正常化，推动改革，提升全要素生产率。\n另一派就是MMT，现代货币理论。简单来讲，它的理念就是税收确定货币的发行。只要国家主权没有问题，货币的发行可以无上限，也就是政府的债务就根本不应该存在上限，可以通过政府的发债，包括通过货币的发行无限循环下去。\n这就是现在大家都在讲的现代货币理论，那就是真的是在放水刺激的路上走远了，我对现代货币理论的理解是，这可能是货币金融的一次创新，但是可能是宏观经济思想的一次大的倒退。\n但是我们很幸运，中国没有选择这条理论，所以去年中国主流的公共政策的声音是批判MMT的。\n谈到对大类资产的观点，线索是非常清楚的。作为一个做了20年宏观经济形势分析的老研究员，我觉得最后一定要回归到最底层的逻辑。今年经济形势的主要逻辑就是通胀预期，这意味着今年受益的一定是低估值和有着涨价预期的品种。\n所以最近市场走得比较好的都是这些，过去两年高估值的，因为利率的上升，都在杀估值，最后这些基本的逻辑都是成立的。\n中美贸易摩擦具有长期性和严峻性\n最后给大家讲讲我们现在面临的四大矛盾以及对策。\n第一大矛盾毫无疑问是中美贸易摩擦，这是我们所谓的百年未有之大变局。\n中美贸易摩擦的本质是什么？\n中国改革开放40多年，我们现在的经济规模已经是美国的70%了，而且更重要的是我们还在以5~6%的速度在增长，我们是美国潜在增长率的2~3倍，按照这样的趋势下去，大约在2030年前后，中国经济规模将会超过美国，成为世界第一大经济体。\n这对我们每个中国人来说，这意味着中华民族重回世界之巅的一天。而且我们很幸运的赶上了时代的大潮，我们可以见到历史，但是纵观世界经济史，在过去的100多年前，自从美国超过英国，成为世界第一大经济体以后，就没有人超过他。\n先后有两个挑战者，前苏联和日本，他们都和美国爆发了冲突，而且不简单是贸易领域的，包括地缘政治、意识形态，包括金融领域甚至军事的全面对抗。\n中国还有7~10年就会重新成为世界第一大经济体，这段时间会发生什么？答案是非常清楚的，中美贸易摩擦的本质是在位霸权国家，遏制新兴大国的崛起，它具有长期性和严峻性。我们最好的应对是以更大的勇气推动新一轮改革开放，坚定不移。对此我们要保持清醒冷静和战略定力。\n但是我也非常赞同一位长者，基辛格先生的呼吁：为了世界的和平和长期的繁荣，中美一定要多对话、多交流，双方都要做出调整，因为世界的整个治理版图发生了深刻的变革。\n从美国的角度，在未来十年美国要调整心态，接受一个日益崛起的融入全球化的中国。中国也要调整心态，当我们强大以后，我们要相应的承担全球的责任，并且尊重全球的游戏规则。\n未来的新基建包括三大领域\n第二大矛盾是创新发展。\n我们过去依靠人口红利、要素红利等等实现了高增长，未来我们要高质量发展就需要创新驱动。这方面我比较倡导新基建，这些年，我倡导的新基建从学术讨论走向了国家战略。对于一名学者而言，这是我最大的贡献。\n新基建短期有利于扩大需求，稳增长、稳就业，长期有助于培育中国的新技术、新产业和新经济，打造中国经济的新引擎。\n过去40多年，中国本身就是大规模超前基础设施建设的受益者，为什么印度抓不住全球化红利而中国抓住了？很重要原因就是基础设施建设。\n未来的新基建包括三大领域：\n5G、大数据中心、人工智能，新能源汽车、充电桩为代表的科技领域新基建；\n教育医疗为代表的民生领域新基建；\n以及营商环境，服务业开放，多层次资本市场建设等制度领域的新基建。\n中国将面临人口老龄化\n这将是未来最大的灰犀牛之一\n第三个主要矛盾就是中国在未来10年将会面临加速到来的人口老龄化，这将是未来中国内部最大的灰犀牛之一。\n过去2、30年大家根本不用关心人口老龄化的问题，但是在未来10年，这是一件大事。因为中国的婴儿潮是1962~1976年，我们受益于这个婴儿潮的人口红利，中国过去的高增长就是这一批人年轻时候干出来的，正好叠加了全球化红利。\n但是1962年出生的这批人现在59岁了，明年就退休了。\n这就是为什么公共政策领域在讨论延长退休，因为如果不做政策的调整，未来中国的这波婴儿潮期间出生的人将加速退出劳动力市场——这还不是我讲的重点。\n重点是中国的老龄化不是像欧美这样慢慢到来的，因为中国有计划生育，中国的人口老龄化将在未来5~10年扑面而来、加速到来。\n所以十四五，包括这次政府工作报告都提出，把应对人口老龄化上升到国家战略，因为我们还处于未富先老，欧美和日本都是进入发达国家之后才开始人口老龄化，而我们人均GDP刚过1万美元，就迎来了一个老龄化的挑战，所以我也呼吁放开生育。\n从发展的趋势来看，中国人口老龄化的速度和规模前所未有。2022年深度老龄化社会，2033年超级老龄化社会，到2060年，三个人中有一个是65岁以上的老人，同时还有少子化的问题。\n人口老龄化会带来哪些问题？\n中国经济潜在增长率将会下降；劳动力成本上升；投资率储蓄率下降；社会抚养比和养老负担加重；政府的债务和社会保障的压力都会上升，更重要的是社会的活力将会下降。\n所以应对人口老龄化和少子化的挑战，要尽快放开生育，让生育权回归家庭，加快构筑生育支撑体系，同时积极应对人口老龄化，建设一个老年友好型的社会，这是我们面临一个很大的挑战。\n房地产的根本问题是人地错配和货币超发\n第四个主要矛盾，就是我们最坚硬的泡沫——房地产。\n我原来提到，房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。我们研究了过去上百年，十几个代表经济体的房地产以及住房制度的案例，基本结论是住房制度决定房地产市场，制度是它的基因，而基因有着很强大的自我繁殖能力。\n中国的房地产走到今天，就是因为当时我们的住房改革学习的是中国香港，而中国香港学习的又是英国——这两个经济体都是高房价。\n严格来讲香港的住房改革是教训，远远谈不上是成功的经验。而美国、日本，他们的房地产政策也是不成功的，因为货币的超发带来了严重的资产价格的泡沫以及金融风险。\n房地产改革搞成功的国家有哪些呢？德国和新加坡，他们搞租赁，包括对货币强有力的控制。\n根据我们对国际经验的研究，我们认为中国房地产长期平稳健康发展的关键是人地挂钩和金融稳定。人是需求，土地是供给，金融是杠杆。\n坦率地说，我们对房地产的认识和学术讨论距离真正解决问题还有很大的差距。我们在过去这一两年看到的房产乱象，放在我们的研究框架里面一点都不稀奇。\n中国房地产的根本问题就是人地错配和货币过去的一度超发。\n\n过去我们以计划经济的思维，控制大城市，发展中小城镇，区域均衡发展的思路是错的，这种思路导致了人往大的都市圈集聚，但是土地指标没有供过来，导致了人地错配和一二线城市高房价、三四线高库存——这个是完全有解的。\n从经济学上从技术上，作为一个学者，我可以负责任给大家讲，中国房地产走到今天还有解，我们还有最后十年的时间窗口，但是我们要先解决认识问题，这是我给大家报告的主要观点。\n以七大改革为突破口\n中国将开启新周期、新发展格局\n未来以七大改革为突破口，我们认为中国将会开启新周期、新发展格局。\n\n七大改革包括——\n第一是新基建；\n第二是人地挂钩，要素流动的都市圈、城市群的城市化；\n第三是放开生育；\n第四是打通资本市场与科技创新的双循环；\n第五是大规模的减税降费；\n第六是以中美贸易摩擦为契机，推动新一轮的改革开放；\n第七，确立我们新的立国战略。什么叫立国战略？就是我们过去40年所受益的类似韬光养晦战略，在看清未来几十年世界经济的潮流和趋势的背景下，制定一种对我长期有利的战略，我们现在处在一个战略的转型期。\n以上是今天我给大家报告的主要观点，我们正处在百年未有之大变局，同时我们也迎来了百年未有之大机遇。我们深信，随着新的一轮的改革开放落地攻坚，以及未来改革红利的释放，作为中国经济和资本市场的长期的乐观主义者，我们认为未来最好的投资机会就在中国，谢谢！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
