Most stocks including valuable stocks like Apple are down around the start of 2022. However, there are some markets that is in the opposite. Who are they? Those who are in inflationary hedge businesses for example the commodity related stocks. I received questions like “What are your thoughts on Crypto, REITs, and TIPS as hedges against inflation?” My reply:“What will be up or we will be paying more during inflation? These markets are the ones we should be focusing on. We don’t have to over think too much.” The real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and yet the dollar starts weakening, just like the pound. Not happening now, I am keeping watch on this closely. However, it is not all bad news… More video tutorials, follow my YouTube channel:

Likely scenario given a month left for 2022:• Dow Jones - Green• S&P - dicey between Green & Red• Nasdaq - Red• Russell - RedWhy is Dow Jones leading and what’s next? The Dow enjoyed its best month in nearly a half-century in October and it’s up nearly another 3% in November.The tech stocks are in a slump, therefore investors are going back to the traditional stocks, resulting in Dow Jones’ rally in the past two months, but how long can this last with the threat that interest rates are still on the rise into 2023?$S&P 500(.SPX)$  $DJIA(.DJI)$  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Follow me to learn about more analysis!!

There were clues for the meltdown U.S valuable stocks early this year. Divergence was one of it, I have re-shared the post. Enjoy the read! Through our studies, we have identified 1) The meltdown of U.S valuable stocks early this year and 2) The rise of global interest rates As this duo crisis continues, it is not all bad news. More video tutorials, follow my YouTube channel: Invest & Trade with Insight  $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

Personally, I do not subscribe to such theory, investors should focus on fundamentals instead of dates on the calendar. If you say "Sell in May and go away” or “September is historically a dismal month for stocks”, I will say “Please state your reasons.”However, there are the reasons investors should be nervous in September:• Next Fed meeting on 21 Sep• Job report on Friday• Last day of SeptemberThe Fed meeting: The expectation is for the Fed to raise 50-75 basis points, any surprises above this number is highly unlikely. However, August’s CPI due to be announced in September can be the surprise element; above 9.1% or below 8.5%.Job report on Friday:The July rally was because there are signs that the job market remains healthy and that inflation is finally starting to cool. Econo

How it will impact the stock markets? Nearly 250 million people in the United States are eligible to vote in critical midterm elections on November 8 • The sentiment i. The election results will set the tone for the rest of US President Joe Biden’s first presidential term. ii. His Democratic Party has held slim majorities in the House of Representatives and the US Senate. iii. If the opposition Republicans win majorities in either chamber, they have said they will block Biden’s agenda. iv. Key issues – Economy (see below), Abortion, Immigration, Democracy, Climate, Gun control, Education & Public safety • The House of Representatives i. Voters across 50 states will be electing legislation for the House of Representatives. Each seat is up for election every two years。 • The US Senate i.

Mester said she sees benchmark interest rates rising above 4% by early next year.She sees benchmark rates rising above 4% in the coming months. That’s well above the current target range of 2.25%-2.5% for the federal funds rate, which sets what banks charge each other for overnight borrowing but is tied to many consumer debt instruments.“My current view is that it will be necessary to move the fed funds rate up to somewhat above 4 percent by early next year and hold it there,” “I do not anticipate the Fed cutting the fed funds rate target next year.”Her expectation with higher interest rates from here:• Slow economic growth, running “well below 2%”• Unemployment rate rises• Financial markets remain volatile• Inflation to fall to a range of 5%-6% from 9.1%Current interest or Fed fund rate a

The Fed’s minutes on Wednesday provided more clues on inflation and interest rate hikes.It showed several Fed policymakers agreed with Powell’s assessment that the Fed may soon begin to slow the pace of hikes.Yet there have been confusing signals from other Fed officials, who have continued to stress that inflation isn’t going away and must be brought under control.To that end, the Fed said in the minutes that inflation remains “stubbornly high” and “more persistent than anticipated.”“more persistent than anticipated, in Singlish: “They also dunno how” inflation will be like in the coming months.The Dow ended the day up more than 95 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 jumped 0.6% and the Nasdaq rose 1%.The real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and yet the dollar start

All the fixed tenure yields have broken above their four decades of downtrend.To note, the shorter end rate, the fixed 2 year tenure yield is climbing faster than the longer end, the U.S. fixed 30 year tenure government bond yield.How it is going to close in 2022 in this yearly chart, it will be crucial to determine the trend transition; from this long-term downtend to uptrend.More video tutorials, follow by YouTube channel:Invest & Trade with Insight$Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2209(10Ymain)$ $Micro 2-Year Yield - main 2209(2YYmain)$&nbs

The day when Dow -1,000 points or -4.2%. S&P was -4% and Nasdaq was-4.4%. Why?The Fed has signal, they will raise interest rates until inflation is defeated. Market watchers believe many central banks around the world will follow this mandate, starting from the Bank of Korea.Stocks plummeted Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech the central bank won’t back off in its fight against rapid inflation, spurring investors to weigh the implications of higher interest rates kept in place for a longer time.He pledged that the central bank will “use our tools forcefully” to attack inflation that is still running near its highest level in more than 40 years.More video tutorial, follow my YouTube channel:

Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates.While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity.Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat.An incr

The tech stocks are in a slump, therefore investors are going back to the traditional stocks, resulting in Dow Jones’ rally in the past two months.What is next? Why is the short-term likely to be heading up and long-term is still down?The real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and yet the dollar starts weakening, just like the pound. The dollar is trading lower in the past weeks, I am keeping watch on this closely. However, it is not all bad news, we can invest differently…$DJIA(.DJI)$  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Follow me to learn about more analysis!!

Why have high flyers Tech stocks fallen 70%? Where are they heading and what is their fair value? There are 2 key reasons for this crash:1. Post Covid2. Inflation with recession fearFirst let's discuss their all-time high. When Covid started in the beginning of 2020, lock-down swept through almost the entire world. Shopping, watching movies and having meetings at home became a standard default. Companies directly or indirectly provided such services like Netflix, Amazon, Zoom, SEA etc. skyrocketed.Post Covid: Most Tech stocks prices were seriously inflated during Covid, therefore with post covid today, adjustment in its prices to its fair valuation is healthy and 70% lower is not surprising. Inflation with recession fear:Though the latest December CPI was an improvement to 6.5%,

A guide into 2023 if prices stay below its classic downtrend line; not breaking above. It was all along in its classic uptrend line before 2022, but it has transited into its downtrend on the 3rd week of this year, when it broke below its support. Before 2022 strategy: • Buy on dips and can either target for both short and long-term • Any sell-short, keeping it short-term as it is against its uptrend 2022 and after strategy: • Sell into strength and can either target for both short and long-term • Any long, keep it short-term as it is again its downtrend What is the cause? • Inflation As long as there is no sign that inflation or CPI is below 5.3%, any other numbers are just not good enough to tame inflation. More video tutorials, follow my YouTube channel: 

The Dow has now gained for the past three weeks, its longest weekly winning streak of the year. How long will this rally last?The Fed is likely to raise rates by another 0.75% in November, Fed members are debating whether to signal that a smaller hike could be in the cards in December.Reuters reported the U.S. central bank should avoid putting the economy into an "unforced downturn" by raising interest rates too sharply, and it's time to start talking about slowing the pace of the hikes in borrowing costs, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Friday.Make no mistake, a smaller hike does not mean interest rates are coming down at all. At the moment, unlike U.K, at least U.S. CPI not breaking new high is bringing some comfort there:• May 8.5%• Jun 9%• Jul 8.4%• Aug 8.2%•

Market is technically bearish and waiting for recession. Most companies, their main clients or consumers are the mass market. When recession hits, the mass market will tighten their belts, instead of changing their phone once every two years, they may change their phone only when it is necessary.When the mass market extends their next purchase cycle, overall revenue drops. Apple is taking this opportunity to capture market share with its new model and competitive prices.When recession hits, even the most valuable companies in the world will not be spared.More video tutorials, follow by YouTube channel:Invest & Trade with Insight Follow me to 

Elon Musk Sells at least $3.95B worth of Tesla after Twitter. At the end of 2021, he sold a total of $16.4B. CEOs and their C suites around are preparing for what’s ahead in 2022 and beyond. Following are their activities in the past years. At this rate of insider sales, 2022 should be the highest. Insider Sales 2021 – $63.48B 2020 - $42.27B 2019 - $29.67B Source: InsiderScore/Verity Is this rally a bull rebound or a bear retracement? I have mentioned in August, then we have a similar rally. These strategies will be applicable for this season and into 2023. The real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and yet the dollar starts weakening, just like the pound. Not happening now, I am keeping watch on this closely. However, it is not all bad news… More video tutorials an

How to tell if the yield is inverted? And why it is indicating recession. A quick and simple illustration on:• Difference between interest rate and yield?• Why is it important to note yield inversion?• How to tell when Yields are inverted?1. Difference between interest rate and yield?i. Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers andii. Yields are for lenders. For eg. investors to the U.S. governmentiii. Both interest rates and yields move in tandem together2. Why is it important to note yield inversion?i. For eg. - when the return on a 30-years yield is lower than the 2-year yield, that indicates a？ii. For lenders or investors – a pessimistic outlook, a reluctance to commit their money to the longer-term bond, they prefer short-term deposits as the market is unclear in the long-term.iii.

Global inflation fears still linger, let’s look at the region at their historical high in decades:• Australia at 7.3%The annual inflation rate in Australia climbed to 7.3% in Q3 of 2022 from 6.1% in Q2, above market forecasts of 7.0%. This was the highest since Q2 1990• New Zealand at 7.2%The inflation rate in New Zealand rose 7.20 percent YoY in the fourth quarter of 2022 at the same level of 7.20 percent in the third quarter of 2022. Highest since 1988.• Singapore at 5.1%2022 core inflation averaged 4.1 per cent, higher than the figure of 0.9 per cent in 2021. Overall inflation came in at 6.1 per cent, up from 2.3 per cent the previous year.• Japan at 4%Japan's inflation rate has jumped to a fresh 41-year high at 4%The real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and ye

The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut?He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut.I explained why interest rate or the Fed Fund Rate is heading up to at least 6.5% at the end of 2023.Despite the rally on al major US markets yesterday, the Dollar has weakened again. The real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and yet the dollar starts weakening, just like the pound last year. The dollar is trading lower in the past weeks, I am keeping watch on this closely. However, it is not all bad news, we can invest differe

As you know my investing mandate is:• US – Trade them• Asia – Accumulate them• Commodities – Buy themStarting a new series on trading. The whole idea is to create longevity in our trading interest or career, meaning trading should not be a short-live adventure, but we should trade till right into our retirement age.We all may have read that many build-up their fortunes through business, investing or even trading and suddenly most of their net worth reduced substantially overnight, and this is what I mean they are running it without longevity.It is interesting to note how the behavioural science is taking shape before the recent buy-up.For those investors for the Asia markets and commodity, we have to recognise the real danger will be with the continuous rise in interest rates and yet the d