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从WTI原油结构崩塌看动力煤投资者的风险

2021-06-04

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116163298","repostId":"116184704","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":170706543,"gmtCreate":1626449096382,"gmtModify":1703760480990,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170706543","repostId":"2151507955","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2151507955","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626439015,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151507955?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 20:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从WTI原油结构崩塌看动力煤投资者的风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151507955","media":"金十数据","summary":"中国动力煤散户投资者的期望过高，炒作动力煤期货前端合约价格的散户投资者正在面临巨大风险。","content":"<html><body><p>本文来源于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>专栏，作者王远非（笔名：愚公）</p><hr/><p><span>1.对于专业期货市场交易者来说最重要的布局工作是什么？</span></p><p>对于专业期货市场交易者来说，期限结构和基差是最重要的两项布局工作。</p><p>国内期货玩家也经常耳熟能详的一些玩法：正套（多近空远）、反套（空远多近），其实就是在说期现结构。期限结构表达的是未来不同时点交货的商品价格之间的差异，为市场提供了有关供需平衡的线索。</p><p><strong>期限结构分为两种，如果市场处于Contango结构，即近月价格低远月价格高，通常表明当前的市场处于供需平衡状态，或者存在供过于求的情况。</strong>如果市场处于Backwarditon结构，即近月价格高远月价格低，通常表明当前的市场处于供应紧张状态，或者存在供不应求的情况。因此，近期和远期交割日的期货合约之间的期限结构价格差异，可以帮我们实时洞察能源商品的供需基本面。</p><p>基差表达的是当前时点期货与现货价格之间的差异，为市场提供了期货合约到期日交割品供需平衡的线索。对于基差，愚公就不再费笔墨介绍了，请大家自行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>。基于中国期货市场的交割制度特点，基差玩法都是中国国内期货市场的老把戏了，每个月都有一些品种在尝试上演逼仓大戏，但似乎从来没真正发生。</p><p><span>2． 近日美国WTI原油期限结构发生了什么？</span></p><p>在世界瞩目的美国库欣地区原油库存水平连续下降至低于5年均值，无数中国玩家都担心美国原油也会像中国期货市场频频上演的逼仓大戏出事之际，什么也没发生！？ <strong>WTI期限结构昨晚前端Aug/Sep价差从前几日的1块多都继续下跌到0.30（跌幅逾70%），Sep/Oct从前几日的1块多彻底崩溃下跌到0.72（跌幅逾40%），WTI曲线前端本周下跌幅度较大，Dec21/Dec22终于也开始出现显著下跌至0.60。</strong></p><p><span>3． 昨日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600482\">中国动力</a>煤期限结构发生了什么？</span></p><p>作为一名专业交易者，愚公有必要站出来提醒一下广大交易者，注意动力煤期限结构的变化：在昨天中国国家发改委释放战略储备告知大家储备分布于各处并不紧缺和郑州商品交易所采取限仓措施之际，昨夜郑州动力煤2109合约在陕西安全事故新闻带来的消息刺激下再刷近期高点，但是动力煤期限结构已经开始出现明显下跌，<strong>2109/2011合约价差已经从近十年高点84.2持续回落至64（跌幅逾23%），2109/2011合约价差已经从近十年高点56.2持续回落至45（跌幅逾20%）。</strong></p><p><strong><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/f2825918-63ab-4b97-bfcc-1d92b10fdc4c.png\"/></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/3ac26123-2901-445f-b517-5c11a4a1f393.png\"/></p><p><span>4． 动力煤期限结构开始崩塌意味着什么？</span></p><p>刚才我们提到，如果市场处于Backwarditon结构，即近月价格高远月价格低，通常表明当前的市场处于供应紧张状态，或者存在供不应求的情况。</p><p><strong>昨日国家发改委宣布，准备投放超过1000万吨煤炭储备，为做好迎峰度夏煤炭供应保障工作</strong>，根据监测分析情况，国家发改委已提前制定储备投放预案，本次准备投放规模超过1000万吨，主要分布在全国各地的几十个储煤基地和有关港口，能够根据需要随时投放市场。下一步，将根据供需形势变化再分批次组织煤炭储备资源有序投向市场，保障煤炭稳定供应。<strong>目前，全国已建成超过1亿吨政府可调度煤炭储备能力，储备基地现有存煤4000万吨左右。</strong></p><p>昨日动力煤期限结构出现的明显下跌，无疑是对发改委新闻的正确和积极回应，这意味着专业期货市场交易者已经意识到，发改委此次出手，并非是对着2109合约价格涨跌幅而来，而是针对整个动力煤的冬季期限结构正在进行大手笔布局，毕竟09月是秋高气爽的季节，秋季通常是全年用电量的低点，所以秋季煤炭供应形势不会真的出现紧张。</p><p><span>5． 中国动力煤散户投资者面临着什么风险？</span></p><p>任何专业期货市场交易者的操纵市场做多的玩法无非就是四种：</p><p>（1）<strong>制造月间差风险，即反复多近空远，让实货玩家着急购买远月货物。</strong>昨天动力煤散户投资者津津乐道我在期货端日内成功摸顶做空或者成功抄底做多而赚了2-5%的涨跌幅之际，真正的专业投资者借助发改委的消息面驱动，在动力煤期限结构套利合约赚到的跌幅是20%，而期货是有杠杆的，收益率请吃瓜群众们自己计算。动力煤期限结构将持续面临下行压力，最终将导致整个动力煤前端合约绝对值的崩塌。愚公认为，动力煤的月间差风险已经在党中央国务院的战略布局和英明果断干预之下得到了化解。</p><p>（2）<strong>制造基差风险，即反复囤积和抬涨现货价格，让期货空头玩家无货可交。</strong>愚公提醒，依据《中华人民共和国价格法》，发改委拥有绝对的行政权力，历史上曾经发生多次发改委出台煤炭限价令，群众们可自行百度。</p><p>（3）<strong>制造盘面挤压，即拥有资金优势的交易者通过期货动量点火或者期权市场制造挤压，让对手无奈大量止损。</strong>愚公提醒，郑商所已经连续出台密集措施，没有任何专业期货大户敢于和乐于发起挑衅。</p><p>（4）<strong>炒作消息制造谣言影响公众心理预期，</strong>这个就不展开了。中华人民共和国期货法实施在即，大家自行百度草案。</p><p>综上所述，在动力煤期限结构风险已经大大缓解的局面下，一旦动力煤保值盘+卖空投机盘+多头止盈盘逐渐增量，这些狂热做多动力煤炒作国家无储备电厂要停机的非专业投机者们，能否接得住下行压力？愚公再次郑重提醒，动力煤近端期货合约的非专业投资者群体，不应被别有用心的舆论炒作所误导，应主动远离高风险的原油和动力煤。</p><p>投资者一定要清醒认识到，总理是人民的总理，中国国家发改委是国家经济和物价运行治理工作的权威领导机关，对于世界上任何一个国家和政府来说，能源安全更是绝无戏言。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从WTI原油结构崩塌看动力煤投资者的风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 20:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=77902&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来源于新浪专栏，作者王远非（笔名：愚公）1.对于专业期货市场交易者来说最重要的布局工作是什么？对于专业期货市场交易者来说，期限结构和基差是最重要的两项布局工作。国内期货玩家也经常耳熟能详的一些玩法：正套（多近空远）、反套（空远多近），其实就是在说期现结构。期限结构表达的是未来不同时点交货的商品价格之间的差异，为市场提供了有关供需平衡的线索。期限结构分为两种，如果市场处于Contango结构，即...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=77902&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/bc3a6171-440b-46c2-ad9f-f6f3ee7e0667.jpg/lite","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=77902&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151507955","content_text":"本文来源于新浪专栏，作者王远非（笔名：愚公）1.对于专业期货市场交易者来说最重要的布局工作是什么？对于专业期货市场交易者来说，期限结构和基差是最重要的两项布局工作。国内期货玩家也经常耳熟能详的一些玩法：正套（多近空远）、反套（空远多近），其实就是在说期现结构。期限结构表达的是未来不同时点交货的商品价格之间的差异，为市场提供了有关供需平衡的线索。期限结构分为两种，如果市场处于Contango结构，即近月价格低远月价格高，通常表明当前的市场处于供需平衡状态，或者存在供过于求的情况。如果市场处于Backwarditon结构，即近月价格高远月价格低，通常表明当前的市场处于供应紧张状态，或者存在供不应求的情况。因此，近期和远期交割日的期货合约之间的期限结构价格差异，可以帮我们实时洞察能源商品的供需基本面。基差表达的是当前时点期货与现货价格之间的差异，为市场提供了期货合约到期日交割品供需平衡的线索。对于基差，愚公就不再费笔墨介绍了，请大家自行百度。基于中国期货市场的交割制度特点，基差玩法都是中国国内期货市场的老把戏了，每个月都有一些品种在尝试上演逼仓大戏，但似乎从来没真正发生。2． 近日美国WTI原油期限结构发生了什么？在世界瞩目的美国库欣地区原油库存水平连续下降至低于5年均值，无数中国玩家都担心美国原油也会像中国期货市场频频上演的逼仓大戏出事之际，什么也没发生！？ WTI期限结构昨晚前端Aug/Sep价差从前几日的1块多都继续下跌到0.30（跌幅逾70%），Sep/Oct从前几日的1块多彻底崩溃下跌到0.72（跌幅逾40%），WTI曲线前端本周下跌幅度较大，Dec21/Dec22终于也开始出现显著下跌至0.60。3． 昨日中国动力煤期限结构发生了什么？作为一名专业交易者，愚公有必要站出来提醒一下广大交易者，注意动力煤期限结构的变化：在昨天中国国家发改委释放战略储备告知大家储备分布于各处并不紧缺和郑州商品交易所采取限仓措施之际，昨夜郑州动力煤2109合约在陕西安全事故新闻带来的消息刺激下再刷近期高点，但是动力煤期限结构已经开始出现明显下跌，2109/2011合约价差已经从近十年高点84.2持续回落至64（跌幅逾23%），2109/2011合约价差已经从近十年高点56.2持续回落至45（跌幅逾20%）。4． 动力煤期限结构开始崩塌意味着什么？刚才我们提到，如果市场处于Backwarditon结构，即近月价格高远月价格低，通常表明当前的市场处于供应紧张状态，或者存在供不应求的情况。昨日国家发改委宣布，准备投放超过1000万吨煤炭储备，为做好迎峰度夏煤炭供应保障工作，根据监测分析情况，国家发改委已提前制定储备投放预案，本次准备投放规模超过1000万吨，主要分布在全国各地的几十个储煤基地和有关港口，能够根据需要随时投放市场。下一步，将根据供需形势变化再分批次组织煤炭储备资源有序投向市场，保障煤炭稳定供应。目前，全国已建成超过1亿吨政府可调度煤炭储备能力，储备基地现有存煤4000万吨左右。昨日动力煤期限结构出现的明显下跌，无疑是对发改委新闻的正确和积极回应，这意味着专业期货市场交易者已经意识到，发改委此次出手，并非是对着2109合约价格涨跌幅而来，而是针对整个动力煤的冬季期限结构正在进行大手笔布局，毕竟09月是秋高气爽的季节，秋季通常是全年用电量的低点，所以秋季煤炭供应形势不会真的出现紧张。5． 中国动力煤散户投资者面临着什么风险？任何专业期货市场交易者的操纵市场做多的玩法无非就是四种：（1）制造月间差风险，即反复多近空远，让实货玩家着急购买远月货物。昨天动力煤散户投资者津津乐道我在期货端日内成功摸顶做空或者成功抄底做多而赚了2-5%的涨跌幅之际，真正的专业投资者借助发改委的消息面驱动，在动力煤期限结构套利合约赚到的跌幅是20%，而期货是有杠杆的，收益率请吃瓜群众们自己计算。动力煤期限结构将持续面临下行压力，最终将导致整个动力煤前端合约绝对值的崩塌。愚公认为，动力煤的月间差风险已经在党中央国务院的战略布局和英明果断干预之下得到了化解。（2）制造基差风险，即反复囤积和抬涨现货价格，让期货空头玩家无货可交。愚公提醒，依据《中华人民共和国价格法》，发改委拥有绝对的行政权力，历史上曾经发生多次发改委出台煤炭限价令，群众们可自行百度。（3）制造盘面挤压，即拥有资金优势的交易者通过期货动量点火或者期权市场制造挤压，让对手无奈大量止损。愚公提醒，郑商所已经连续出台密集措施，没有任何专业期货大户敢于和乐于发起挑衅。（4）炒作消息制造谣言影响公众心理预期，这个就不展开了。中华人民共和国期货法实施在即，大家自行百度草案。综上所述，在动力煤期限结构风险已经大大缓解的局面下，一旦动力煤保值盘+卖空投机盘+多头止盈盘逐渐增量，这些狂热做多动力煤炒作国家无储备电厂要停机的非专业投机者们，能否接得住下行压力？愚公再次郑重提醒，动力煤近端期货合约的非专业投资者群体，不应被别有用心的舆论炒作所误导，应主动远离高风险的原油和动力煤。投资者一定要清醒认识到，总理是人民的总理，中国国家发改委是国家经济和物价运行治理工作的权威领导机关，对于世界上任何一个国家和政府来说，能源安全更是绝无戏言。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116163298,"gmtCreate":1622780989014,"gmtModify":1704191086407,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great 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