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甲鱼蛋小财奴

甲鱼蛋小财奴

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甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-04-28

MARK

@房东经济学:爲什麼再有錢也很難財務自由？

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-04-05

MARK

Sorry, the original content has been removed

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-03-30

Swap. cfd. ltcm.

@小虎AV: 【Bill Hwang事件後續：華爾街銀行被監管機構召見】彭博報道，華爾街各銀行正在努力應對比爾•黃(Bill Hwang)旗下的Archegos Capital Management倒閉所帶來的後果。消息人士稱，美國證券交易委員會(SEC)週一匆忙召集各銀行召開會議，探討引發多年來最大的基金崩潰之一的原因。這也引起了人們對黃哲倫用來購買公司大量股份的祕密金融工具的注意。

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-03-30

MARK

Sorry, the original content has been removed

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-03-27

mark

Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-03-24

mark

Judgment Day 2021? Why not be bullish on the stock market and commodity supercycle

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-03-24

MARK

@美股投资网:NFT是泡沫還是風口？附NFT概念股列表，一文帶你深入瞭解

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-03-23

VLKAF - Common Stock traded OTCVLKPF - Preferred Stock traded OTCVWAGY - ADR representing 1/10th Common StockVWAPY - ADR representing 1/10th Preferred StockVOW - Common Stock traded in FrankfurtVOW3 - Preferred Stock traded in Frankfurt

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-03-23

VLKAF - Common Stock traded OTCVLKPF - Preferred Stock traded OTCVWAGY - ADR representing 1/10th Common StockVWAPY - ADR representing 1/10th Preferred StockVOW - Common Stock traded in FrankfurtVOW3 - Preferred Stock traded in Frankfurt

甲鱼蛋小财奴

2021-03-23

VLKAF - Common Stock traded OTCVLKPF - Preferred Stock traded OTCVWAGY - ADR representing 1/10th Common StockVWAPY - ADR representing 1/10th Preferred StockVOW - Common Stock traded in FrankfurtVOW3 - Preferred Stock traded in Frankfurt

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相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","listText":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","text":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0d3d3f80705d8737c51ed49dd2865e","width":"607","height":"707"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4725c8ccaf5689b6294c4821e27d47c0","width":"1080","height":"814"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a72cb7469390912d32d9492ee4504dc","width":"1080","height":"1226"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347989344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349374997,"gmtCreate":1617569775719,"gmtModify":1704700409301,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK","listText":"MARK","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349374997","repostId":"1128354316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355566094,"gmtCreate":1617086571518,"gmtModify":1704801778853,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Swap. cfd. ltcm.","listText":"Swap. cfd. ltcm.","text":"Swap. cfd. ltcm.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355566094","repostId":"355534446","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":355534446,"gmtCreate":1617083887981,"gmtModify":1704801743399,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514329116425907","authorIdStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  【Bill Hwang事件後續：華爾街銀行被監管機構召見】 彭博報道，華爾街各銀行正在努力應對比爾•黃(Bill Hwang)旗下的Archegos Capital Management倒閉所帶來的後果。消息人士稱，美國證券交易委員會(SEC)週一匆忙召集各銀行召開會議，探討引發多年來最大的基金崩潰之一的原因。這也引起了人們對黃哲倫用來購買公司大量股份的祕密金融工具的注意。\n \n","listText":"【Bill Hwang事件後續：華爾街銀行被監管機構召見】 彭博報道，華爾街各銀行正在努力應對比爾•黃(Bill Hwang)旗下的Archegos Capital Management倒閉所帶來的後果。消息人士稱，美國證券交易委員會(SEC)週一匆忙召集各銀行召開會議，探討引發多年來最大的基金崩潰之一的原因。這也引起了人們對黃哲倫用來購買公司大量股份的祕密金融工具的注意。","text":"【Bill Hwang事件後續：華爾街銀行被監管機構召見】 彭博報道，華爾街各銀行正在努力應對比爾•黃(Bill Hwang)旗下的Archegos Capital Management倒閉所帶來的後果。消息人士稱，美國證券交易委員會(SEC)週一匆忙召集各銀行召開會議，探討引發多年來最大的基金崩潰之一的原因。這也引起了人們對黃哲倫用來購買公司大量股份的祕密金融工具的注意。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355534446","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"4e49b796b0ef4de3bd87b100fcda6186","tweetId":"355534446","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/4e6ae2455285890816212069026/f0.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ae7d9f5e976c6677b0795c901acf20"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355583893,"gmtCreate":1617085177012,"gmtModify":1704801761494,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK","listText":"MARK","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355583893","repostId":"1117103484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117103484","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617070660,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117103484?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-30 10:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The causes and effects of hedge fund leverage explosion-the sin lies in the central mother?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117103484","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"爆仓：风险传导路径这次对冲基金爆仓事件，我们也算亲历者。新闻里说的被强平股票，除了有一支中概传媒股我们持有多头（但有美股传媒空头配对），其余中概股，教育股，传媒股的名单里，大概80% 我们都已经提前做","content":"<p><b>Explosion: Risk Transmission Path</b></p><p>We are also witnesses to this hedge fund liquidation incident.</p><p>As mentioned in the news, except for one Chinese media stock, we hold a long position (but there is a short pairing of US media), about 80% of the other Chinese stocks, education stocks and media stocks have been shorted in advance, but we didn't get the \"final judgment day\" on Friday-because since the second quarter of last year, US stocks have seriously manipulated the market artificially, and A-shares have become A-shares, and there are often short-pressing behaviors. Therefore, for the sake of risk management, our shorts dare not hold positions for a long time, so we can only constantly exchange them according to the cost performance ratio.</p><p>We're not sure who exploded, but it doesn't matter. Although the development of this event has its contingency, it also has its inevitability. Try to analyze the cause and effect of the transmission of this incident first.</p><p>We think<b>Two main causes</b>：</p><p><ul><li>Inflation expectations are rising, hitting the best-performing technology and high valuation sectors in U.S. stocks last year;</p><p></li><li>Biden inherited Trump's China policy, surrounding it from economy, military and finance, including a financial attack on Chinese concept stocks.</p><p></li></ul><b>Risk transmission path</b>：</p><p><ol><li>Inflation Expectations → US Treasury yields Rises → U.S. Stocks Tech, Growth Stocks Fall</p><p></li><li>US Treasury yields rose → US dollar rose → emerging markets fell → Hong Kong technology (group stocks) fell, China concept stocks fell</p><p></li><li>U.S. legislation to expel Chinese conceptual stocks → Hedge fund Chinese conceptual stock positions fluctuate → margin call → U.S. stock media (VIAC, DISCA) is liquidated</p><p></li><li>The above stock styles overlap with ARK's positions, and ARK lies down</p><p></li></ol>The most unlucky thing is ARK-itself due to the rise in inflation expectations, which has caused ARK positions to be hard hit. This time, the hedge fund that came out of the air was forcibly liquidated \"<b>Black swan</b>\"Adding insult to Ark-due to the high overlap of position styles, lie down the gun. ARKK funds fell another 2.5% on Monday.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7818c693c24d61b57b70faca5156b3ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Longtao Global Macro</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40eb82d6d3f95802f5e8b958146e331\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>TME/ARKK resonance Source: Longtao Global Macro</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec841250b6e29e5c0a28774b85415fe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>VIAC/TME resonance Source: Longtao Global Macro</span></p><p><b>Traceability: The doting of the global central mother → adding leverage and holding a group</b></p><p>Why hedge funds dare to leverage, trace back to the source-it is central banks<b>Since 2008, releasing water to rescue the market has never solved the problem, so it is necessary to release water constantly to suppress the volatility of assets-drinking poison to quench thirst, which is actually the central bank's put option, suppressing short-term volatility and leaving volatility for the future</b>。</p><p>But this behavior</p><p><ul><li>On the one hand, advocating asset bubbles and suppressing volatility is equivalent to increasing the Sharpe ratio of assets and attracting more people to accelerate their entry into the market, which is embodied in increasing leverage and hot selling of funds;</p><p></li><li>On the other hand, people with a deep understanding of policy, or capital groups, see through the latter<b>Leverage recklessly, plunder wealth to the future, the poor, and the whole society, widen the gap between the rich and the poor, and bring greater instability to the economy-earnings are yourself, losses are the state, or kidnap the whole society to bear the burden-and then kidnap the central bank to release water again</b>。</p><p></li></ul>In fact, it is the central bank that condones the excessive speculation of capital, the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the leveraged bull in 2015, the US tech stock bubble in 2020, the junk stock bubble, the current real estate bubble... It's all the same way. We're in the next paragraph<b>Q1 2020 Quantitative Crisis</b>There is elaboration.</p><p>The central bank's indulgence has encouraged hedge funds to take risks and manipulate stock prices through leverage and grouping. This time it was liquidated by Goldman Sachs<b>VIAC is a group ticket leveraged by hedge funds</b>, before the stock fell, consecutive short squeezes. Fortunately, the major shareholders cut the leeks of the bookmakers in time and issued additional stocks, which optimized the liquidity and led to the amplification of volatility. The monster revealed its true form.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ae48ec2db994291cd48250e2542ab5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>VIAC</span></p><p>If we want to break this a vicious circle, the central bank can only reduce excessive intervention, appropriately increase the law of asset fluctuation, and return the option to the market.</p><p><b>Impact and Lessons: Locally Similar to LTCM +2015A Stock Crash +2020Q1 Quantitative Crisis</b></p><p>We do not consider the incident to be a Lehman-like nuclear-bomb crisis, but the implications may be useful:</p><p><ul><li><b>LTCM crisis;</b></p><p></li><li><b>A-share leveraged stock market crash in 2015;</b></p><p></li><li><b>Q1 2020 Quantitative Crisis</b>。</p><p></li></ul>In 1998,<b>LTCM</b>The combination is very complicated. It is not a few bonds in the legend. The rough combination is as follows:</p><p>Fixed Income Arbitrage:</p><p>Short US swap spread</p><p>Euro Cross-Swap</p><p>Long US mortgages hedged</p><p>Swap curve Japan</p><p>Italian swap spread</p><p>Fixed income Volatility</p><p>On-the-run/off-the-run spread</p><p>Junk bond arbitrage</p><p>Equity:</p><p><b>Short equity volatility Short SP500 and French CAC40 volatility</b></p><p>Risk arbitrage</p><p><b>Equity relative value Multi Russian Low Valuation Stocks/Short High Valuation Stocks</b></p><p>Emerging Markets:</p><p><b>Long emerging market sovereigns Multi-Russian, Latin American Treasury Bond</b></p><p>Long emerging market currency</p><p><b>Long emerging market equity hedged to S&P 500 Long emerging market/Short SP500</b></p><p>Other:</p><p>Yield curve trades</p><p>Short high-tech stocks</p><p>Convertible arbitrage</p><p>Index arbitrage</p><p>We no longer translate one by one, only draw the key points. On the surface, LTCM is a multi-strategy, as if there is no correlation between the various strategies. But in fact, in the Asian financial crisis and the Russian financial crisis, risks began to link and strengthen with each other:</p><p><ul><li>1998.8, Russia defaulted on its debt, causing stocks and bonds, foreign exchange to plummet, which severely hit LTCM Emerging Markets bond and equity exposure;</p><p></li><li>In panic, in order to hedge risks, people buy stocks with high valuation and high liquidity, sell stocks with low valuation and low liquidity, and multi-Russian low valuation stocks/empty high valuation stocks are paired with losses at both ends; In the month, LTCM lost $1.85 billion;</p><p></li><li>The Russian crisis led to the LTCM crisis, risks spread to Europe and America, stock markets plummeted, and volatility skyrocketed. LTCM sold a large number of vega on SP500 and CAC40, even accounting for 30% of the CAC40 option market, with huge losses superimposed liquidity risks.</p><p></li></ul>Not just LTCM portfolio internal risk resonance; LTCM's strategy is also highly overlapping with other investment banks. In July 1998, the liquidation of the Salomon arbitrage division, which had previously incubated LTCM, resulted in a loss to LTCM's bulls (Michael Lewis, New York Times, July 1998), with a loss of 10% for the month.</p><p>At that time, there were other investment banks who had strategies similar to LTCM in their own trades, and some people even predicted that LTCM would close its positions first. Victor Haghani, a partner at LTCM, recalls: \"It was as if there were people out there who had exactly the same position as we did, except they were three times bigger than us, and they were concentrated on liquidation<i>(it was as if there was someone out there with our exact portfolio,... only it was three times as large as ours, and they were liquidating all at once.)</i>\"-Who can guarantee that the self-operated investment bank in this liquidation does not copy the combination of explosive warehouses?</p><p>Does this feel very like GS, MS concentrated on block trading before the market opened last Friday?</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a7f37fec95f81af5e1e33132fce1cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LTCM: SPX/MOEX Russia 1998 Financial Crisis</span></p><p><b>Q1 2020 Quantitative Crisis</b>: As we explained last year, due to the financial crisis induced by the epidemic, the inter-bank repo market was deleveraged, and hedge funds, especially quantitative hedge funds, put huge leverage through the repo market, which was rumored to be more than 5-10 times. Rising volatility, combined with deleveraging, has led to widespread losses for hedge funds, especially quantitative funds- -including risk-parity funds.</p><p><b>Ironically,</b>At the end of 2019, the liquidity of the repo market just dried up, causing many hedge funds to lose money. So quickly they make mistakes again.</p><p><b>Even more ironic</b>In March 2020, the U.S. government vigorously intervened in the financial market, especially<b>Trump interviews hedge fund giants on 3.24 to discuss economic resumption</b>（<b>？ Need to talk to hedge fund managers about returning to work?</b>), on the same day, the market began to rebound, and the performance of the participating hedge funds in 2020 miraculously reversed, turning from losses to profits, among which there were many short positions in the first quarter and those who made leverage losses in the first quarter.</p><p>Therefore, we said in the previous paragraph that this time, the leverage of hedge funds exploded. In the final analysis, the Federal Reserve kidnapped the whole world to release water, which suppressed the volatility of US stocks and saved the bane laid by highly leveraged hedge funds.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8efa93e8e1e6616561a7a7bd0bc3e8d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Longtao Global Macro</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5add9b4c54748148bece67f1e9d5f747\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"4595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>15-year leveraged bull and LTCM, A-share and Hong Kong-based group stocks plunged this month, and the leveraged disc was liquidated last week</b>There are similarities-at that time, the two mainstream strategies in the market also overlapped highly, increasing systemic risks:</p><p><ul><li>In 2015, the styles of small-cap growth, technology, junk stocks and pseudo-market neutral buying small-cap/empty large-cap quantitative funds highly overlapped;</p><p></li><li>In 2021, the \"Mao Index\" represented the blue-chip group of bubbles, which highly overlapped with the style of some quantitative funds buying large cap/short small cap;</p><p></li><li>And the stock style we mentioned earlier that was liquidated last week overlaps with ARK's stock selection.</p><p></li></ul>So, the lesson</p><p><ol><li>From the perspective of risk management,<b>Don't think that unrelated assets or strategies in the market can be leveraged, or alpha-stacked-because it is likely that you don't understand the underlying logic of the strategy, and that even if they are unrelated in principle, they can easily be highly correlated when volatility amplifies or liquidity dries up</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>Do not blindly leverage for the historical high Sharpe characteristics of an asset or strategy, and do not blindly leverage for the low beta between multi-strategy underlying assets or strategies</b>。 Both investors and Prime Brokers take this as a warning.</p><p></li><li><b>The central bank and the government should maintain their independence, pay more attention to the interests of the lowest levels of society, and not be kidnapped by politicians and powerful people to blindly rescue the market. In the end, it may be difficult to calm down</b>, pits that can't be filled; Moreover, it aggravates the gap between the rich and the poor, lays hidden dangers for the economy, and leads to being forced to be kidnapped by the powerful group again. For example, in the United States, in 2020, the wealth of Top20 hedge funds and technology giants grew at a record rate-when millions of poor people were threatened by disease and their lives, and when they lost their jobs. Don't envy the U.S. government giving money to the whole people, that is, they use the mint tax to loot the wealth of the world, especially China, to beggar-your-neighbor.</p><p></li></ol><b>Event Impact:</b>At first I thought this was a partial incident, which might not be a big problem, but when I saw more and more Prime Brokers losing money (also similar to LTCM, resulting in 17 counterparties losing $3-5 billion: LTCM itself estimated that its top 17 counterparties would have suffered various substantial losses — potentially between $3 billion and $5 billion in aggregate — and shared this information with the fourteen firms participating in the consortium. The firms in the consortium saw that their losses could be serious, with potential losses to some firms amounting to $300 million to $500 million each. — Berkeley University), I thought, perhaps just the tip of the iceberg.<b>Major investment banks may implement stricter risk control in the future, which may lead to other assets gradually releasing volatility and restoring their original appearance. We will carefully observe the continued transmission of risks</b>。</p><p><b>Note that this is only in the first quarter, but because the inflation expectation in the United States is rising, the real inflation and water collection have not yet come, and so many monsters in the market have appeared.</b>If inflation continues to be high in the second quarter, I can't rule out the possibility of bigger storms. In the long run, there are also tax increases in the United States, the return of the US dollar, antitrust, and a series of uncertainties waiting.</p><p><b>Smart Decision Maker: China</b></p><p>Looking back at Chairman Guo's speech in early March, we have to admire the wisdom and foresight of Chinese policymakers-predicting American financial risks in advance and warning A shares, so that A shares are not implicated in this liquidity crisis.</p><p>Guo Shuqing: The financial markets of developed countries in Europe and America are seriously contrary to the real economy, and they are worried about the bursting of foreign asset bubbles. China.com reported that the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference at 10: 00 a.m. on March 2nd (Tuesday). Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party Committee of the People's Bank of China and Chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, introduced the situation of promoting the high-quality development of the banking and insurance industry and answered reporters' questions. International Market News: Compared with major western economies, China has taken the lead in normalizing policies, especially monetary policy. What impact will the difference in policy pace between China and foreign countries have on China's policies and markets? Recently, there are some concerns that capital inflows and asset bubbles may lead to imported inflation. Do you think there is any reason for these concerns? Thanks. Guo Shuqing:... Developed countries in Europe and the United States, countries with severe epidemic situation and some developing countries have all adopted proactive fiscal policies and extremely loose monetary policies, which we can all understand, because after all, to stabilize the economy, macro policies must take these measures. However, the intensity and consequences may have to be considered more, because after all, there will be some side effects, and now these side effects have gradually appeared.<b>First, the financial market. The financial markets of developed countries in Europe and America run at a high level, which is seriously contrary to the real economy. The financial market should reflect the situation of the real economy. If it is too different from the real economy, it will cause problems and be forced to adjust sooner or later. Therefore, we are very worried about the day when the financial market, especially the foreign financial asset bubble, will burst</b>。<b>Second, after the increase of liquidity, because the economy has become highly globalized and China's economy is closely linked to the economies of other countries, the amount of foreign capital flowing into China will obviously increase</b>，... China's economy is still recovering growth at present, and our asset prices are very attractive. Compared with other countries, the interest rate spread is relatively large, and foreign capital inflow is inevitable....<b>On the one hand, it encourages the cross-border flow of capital elements and becomes more and more open. On the other hand, we can't cause too much volatility in the domestic financial market...</b>— — Source: China.com Looking back at this news, I think those who manipulate the stock price in groups and the sheep who are greedy to buy group funds should understand why this year's spring dream is so easy to break. Many of the so-called personal alpha are just a wave in the macro tide.</p><p>Contrary<b>The Federal Reserve, due to being kidnapped by interest groups and political party interests, has instead made US stocks reproduce the scandal farce of 1998-2015, such as A-share banking speculation, backdoor listing of junk stocks, malicious long-going leveraged disks, etc.</b>。</p>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The causes and effects of hedge fund leverage explosion-the sin lies in the central mother?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe causes and effects of hedge fund leverage explosion-the sin lies in the central mother?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">泷韬全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-30 10:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Explosion: Risk Transmission Path</b></p><p>We are also witnesses to this hedge fund liquidation incident.</p><p>As mentioned in the news, except for one Chinese media stock, we hold a long position (but there is a short pairing of US media), about 80% of the other Chinese stocks, education stocks and media stocks have been shorted in advance, but we didn't get the \"final judgment day\" on Friday-because since the second quarter of last year, US stocks have seriously manipulated the market artificially, and A-shares have become A-shares, and there are often short-pressing behaviors. Therefore, for the sake of risk management, our shorts dare not hold positions for a long time, so we can only constantly exchange them according to the cost performance ratio.</p><p>We're not sure who exploded, but it doesn't matter. Although the development of this event has its contingency, it also has its inevitability. Try to analyze the cause and effect of the transmission of this incident first.</p><p>We think<b>Two main causes</b>：</p><p><ul><li>Inflation expectations are rising, hitting the best-performing technology and high valuation sectors in U.S. stocks last year;</p><p></li><li>Biden inherited Trump's China policy, surrounding it from economy, military and finance, including a financial attack on Chinese concept stocks.</p><p></li></ul><b>Risk transmission path</b>：</p><p><ol><li>Inflation Expectations → US Treasury yields Rises → U.S. Stocks Tech, Growth Stocks Fall</p><p></li><li>US Treasury yields rose → US dollar rose → emerging markets fell → Hong Kong technology (group stocks) fell, China concept stocks fell</p><p></li><li>U.S. legislation to expel Chinese conceptual stocks → Hedge fund Chinese conceptual stock positions fluctuate → margin call → U.S. stock media (VIAC, DISCA) is liquidated</p><p></li><li>The above stock styles overlap with ARK's positions, and ARK lies down</p><p></li></ol>The most unlucky thing is ARK-itself due to the rise in inflation expectations, which has caused ARK positions to be hard hit. This time, the hedge fund that came out of the air was forcibly liquidated \"<b>Black swan</b>\"Adding insult to Ark-due to the high overlap of position styles, lie down the gun. ARKK funds fell another 2.5% on Monday.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7818c693c24d61b57b70faca5156b3ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Longtao Global Macro</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40eb82d6d3f95802f5e8b958146e331\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>TME/ARKK resonance Source: Longtao Global Macro</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec841250b6e29e5c0a28774b85415fe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>VIAC/TME resonance Source: Longtao Global Macro</span></p><p><b>Traceability: The doting of the global central mother → adding leverage and holding a group</b></p><p>Why hedge funds dare to leverage, trace back to the source-it is central banks<b>Since 2008, releasing water to rescue the market has never solved the problem, so it is necessary to release water constantly to suppress the volatility of assets-drinking poison to quench thirst, which is actually the central bank's put option, suppressing short-term volatility and leaving volatility for the future</b>。</p><p>But this behavior</p><p><ul><li>On the one hand, advocating asset bubbles and suppressing volatility is equivalent to increasing the Sharpe ratio of assets and attracting more people to accelerate their entry into the market, which is embodied in increasing leverage and hot selling of funds;</p><p></li><li>On the other hand, people with a deep understanding of policy, or capital groups, see through the latter<b>Leverage recklessly, plunder wealth to the future, the poor, and the whole society, widen the gap between the rich and the poor, and bring greater instability to the economy-earnings are yourself, losses are the state, or kidnap the whole society to bear the burden-and then kidnap the central bank to release water again</b>。</p><p></li></ul>In fact, it is the central bank that condones the excessive speculation of capital, the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the leveraged bull in 2015, the US tech stock bubble in 2020, the junk stock bubble, the current real estate bubble... It's all the same way. We're in the next paragraph<b>Q1 2020 Quantitative Crisis</b>There is elaboration.</p><p>The central bank's indulgence has encouraged hedge funds to take risks and manipulate stock prices through leverage and grouping. This time it was liquidated by Goldman Sachs<b>VIAC is a group ticket leveraged by hedge funds</b>, before the stock fell, consecutive short squeezes. Fortunately, the major shareholders cut the leeks of the bookmakers in time and issued additional stocks, which optimized the liquidity and led to the amplification of volatility. The monster revealed its true form.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ae48ec2db994291cd48250e2542ab5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>VIAC</span></p><p>If we want to break this a vicious circle, the central bank can only reduce excessive intervention, appropriately increase the law of asset fluctuation, and return the option to the market.</p><p><b>Impact and Lessons: Locally Similar to LTCM +2015A Stock Crash +2020Q1 Quantitative Crisis</b></p><p>We do not consider the incident to be a Lehman-like nuclear-bomb crisis, but the implications may be useful:</p><p><ul><li><b>LTCM crisis;</b></p><p></li><li><b>A-share leveraged stock market crash in 2015;</b></p><p></li><li><b>Q1 2020 Quantitative Crisis</b>。</p><p></li></ul>In 1998,<b>LTCM</b>The combination is very complicated. It is not a few bonds in the legend. The rough combination is as follows:</p><p>Fixed Income Arbitrage:</p><p>Short US swap spread</p><p>Euro Cross-Swap</p><p>Long US mortgages hedged</p><p>Swap curve Japan</p><p>Italian swap spread</p><p>Fixed income Volatility</p><p>On-the-run/off-the-run spread</p><p>Junk bond arbitrage</p><p>Equity:</p><p><b>Short equity volatility Short SP500 and French CAC40 volatility</b></p><p>Risk arbitrage</p><p><b>Equity relative value Multi Russian Low Valuation Stocks/Short High Valuation Stocks</b></p><p>Emerging Markets:</p><p><b>Long emerging market sovereigns Multi-Russian, Latin American Treasury Bond</b></p><p>Long emerging market currency</p><p><b>Long emerging market equity hedged to S&P 500 Long emerging market/Short SP500</b></p><p>Other:</p><p>Yield curve trades</p><p>Short high-tech stocks</p><p>Convertible arbitrage</p><p>Index arbitrage</p><p>We no longer translate one by one, only draw the key points. On the surface, LTCM is a multi-strategy, as if there is no correlation between the various strategies. But in fact, in the Asian financial crisis and the Russian financial crisis, risks began to link and strengthen with each other:</p><p><ul><li>1998.8, Russia defaulted on its debt, causing stocks and bonds, foreign exchange to plummet, which severely hit LTCM Emerging Markets bond and equity exposure;</p><p></li><li>In panic, in order to hedge risks, people buy stocks with high valuation and high liquidity, sell stocks with low valuation and low liquidity, and multi-Russian low valuation stocks/empty high valuation stocks are paired with losses at both ends; In the month, LTCM lost $1.85 billion;</p><p></li><li>The Russian crisis led to the LTCM crisis, risks spread to Europe and America, stock markets plummeted, and volatility skyrocketed. LTCM sold a large number of vega on SP500 and CAC40, even accounting for 30% of the CAC40 option market, with huge losses superimposed liquidity risks.</p><p></li></ul>Not just LTCM portfolio internal risk resonance; LTCM's strategy is also highly overlapping with other investment banks. In July 1998, the liquidation of the Salomon arbitrage division, which had previously incubated LTCM, resulted in a loss to LTCM's bulls (Michael Lewis, New York Times, July 1998), with a loss of 10% for the month.</p><p>At that time, there were other investment banks who had strategies similar to LTCM in their own trades, and some people even predicted that LTCM would close its positions first. Victor Haghani, a partner at LTCM, recalls: \"It was as if there were people out there who had exactly the same position as we did, except they were three times bigger than us, and they were concentrated on liquidation<i>(it was as if there was someone out there with our exact portfolio,... only it was three times as large as ours, and they were liquidating all at once.)</i>\"-Who can guarantee that the self-operated investment bank in this liquidation does not copy the combination of explosive warehouses?</p><p>Does this feel very like GS, MS concentrated on block trading before the market opened last Friday?</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a7f37fec95f81af5e1e33132fce1cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LTCM: SPX/MOEX Russia 1998 Financial Crisis</span></p><p><b>Q1 2020 Quantitative Crisis</b>: As we explained last year, due to the financial crisis induced by the epidemic, the inter-bank repo market was deleveraged, and hedge funds, especially quantitative hedge funds, put huge leverage through the repo market, which was rumored to be more than 5-10 times. Rising volatility, combined with deleveraging, has led to widespread losses for hedge funds, especially quantitative funds- -including risk-parity funds.</p><p><b>Ironically,</b>At the end of 2019, the liquidity of the repo market just dried up, causing many hedge funds to lose money. So quickly they make mistakes again.</p><p><b>Even more ironic</b>In March 2020, the U.S. government vigorously intervened in the financial market, especially<b>Trump interviews hedge fund giants on 3.24 to discuss economic resumption</b>（<b>？ Need to talk to hedge fund managers about returning to work?</b>), on the same day, the market began to rebound, and the performance of the participating hedge funds in 2020 miraculously reversed, turning from losses to profits, among which there were many short positions in the first quarter and those who made leverage losses in the first quarter.</p><p>Therefore, we said in the previous paragraph that this time, the leverage of hedge funds exploded. In the final analysis, the Federal Reserve kidnapped the whole world to release water, which suppressed the volatility of US stocks and saved the bane laid by highly leveraged hedge funds.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8efa93e8e1e6616561a7a7bd0bc3e8d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Longtao Global Macro</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5add9b4c54748148bece67f1e9d5f747\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"4595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>15-year leveraged bull and LTCM, A-share and Hong Kong-based group stocks plunged this month, and the leveraged disc was liquidated last week</b>There are similarities-at that time, the two mainstream strategies in the market also overlapped highly, increasing systemic risks:</p><p><ul><li>In 2015, the styles of small-cap growth, technology, junk stocks and pseudo-market neutral buying small-cap/empty large-cap quantitative funds highly overlapped;</p><p></li><li>In 2021, the \"Mao Index\" represented the blue-chip group of bubbles, which highly overlapped with the style of some quantitative funds buying large cap/short small cap;</p><p></li><li>And the stock style we mentioned earlier that was liquidated last week overlaps with ARK's stock selection.</p><p></li></ul>So, the lesson</p><p><ol><li>From the perspective of risk management,<b>Don't think that unrelated assets or strategies in the market can be leveraged, or alpha-stacked-because it is likely that you don't understand the underlying logic of the strategy, and that even if they are unrelated in principle, they can easily be highly correlated when volatility amplifies or liquidity dries up</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>Do not blindly leverage for the historical high Sharpe characteristics of an asset or strategy, and do not blindly leverage for the low beta between multi-strategy underlying assets or strategies</b>。 Both investors and Prime Brokers take this as a warning.</p><p></li><li><b>The central bank and the government should maintain their independence, pay more attention to the interests of the lowest levels of society, and not be kidnapped by politicians and powerful people to blindly rescue the market. In the end, it may be difficult to calm down</b>, pits that can't be filled; Moreover, it aggravates the gap between the rich and the poor, lays hidden dangers for the economy, and leads to being forced to be kidnapped by the powerful group again. For example, in the United States, in 2020, the wealth of Top20 hedge funds and technology giants grew at a record rate-when millions of poor people were threatened by disease and their lives, and when they lost their jobs. Don't envy the U.S. government giving money to the whole people, that is, they use the mint tax to loot the wealth of the world, especially China, to beggar-your-neighbor.</p><p></li></ol><b>Event Impact:</b>At first I thought this was a partial incident, which might not be a big problem, but when I saw more and more Prime Brokers losing money (also similar to LTCM, resulting in 17 counterparties losing $3-5 billion: LTCM itself estimated that its top 17 counterparties would have suffered various substantial losses — potentially between $3 billion and $5 billion in aggregate — and shared this information with the fourteen firms participating in the consortium. The firms in the consortium saw that their losses could be serious, with potential losses to some firms amounting to $300 million to $500 million each. — Berkeley University), I thought, perhaps just the tip of the iceberg.<b>Major investment banks may implement stricter risk control in the future, which may lead to other assets gradually releasing volatility and restoring their original appearance. We will carefully observe the continued transmission of risks</b>。</p><p><b>Note that this is only in the first quarter, but because the inflation expectation in the United States is rising, the real inflation and water collection have not yet come, and so many monsters in the market have appeared.</b>If inflation continues to be high in the second quarter, I can't rule out the possibility of bigger storms. In the long run, there are also tax increases in the United States, the return of the US dollar, antitrust, and a series of uncertainties waiting.</p><p><b>Smart Decision Maker: China</b></p><p>Looking back at Chairman Guo's speech in early March, we have to admire the wisdom and foresight of Chinese policymakers-predicting American financial risks in advance and warning A shares, so that A shares are not implicated in this liquidity crisis.</p><p>Guo Shuqing: The financial markets of developed countries in Europe and America are seriously contrary to the real economy, and they are worried about the bursting of foreign asset bubbles. China.com reported that the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference at 10: 00 a.m. on March 2nd (Tuesday). Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party Committee of the People's Bank of China and Chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, introduced the situation of promoting the high-quality development of the banking and insurance industry and answered reporters' questions. International Market News: Compared with major western economies, China has taken the lead in normalizing policies, especially monetary policy. What impact will the difference in policy pace between China and foreign countries have on China's policies and markets? Recently, there are some concerns that capital inflows and asset bubbles may lead to imported inflation. Do you think there is any reason for these concerns? Thanks. Guo Shuqing:... Developed countries in Europe and the United States, countries with severe epidemic situation and some developing countries have all adopted proactive fiscal policies and extremely loose monetary policies, which we can all understand, because after all, to stabilize the economy, macro policies must take these measures. However, the intensity and consequences may have to be considered more, because after all, there will be some side effects, and now these side effects have gradually appeared.<b>First, the financial market. The financial markets of developed countries in Europe and America run at a high level, which is seriously contrary to the real economy. The financial market should reflect the situation of the real economy. If it is too different from the real economy, it will cause problems and be forced to adjust sooner or later. Therefore, we are very worried about the day when the financial market, especially the foreign financial asset bubble, will burst</b>。<b>Second, after the increase of liquidity, because the economy has become highly globalized and China's economy is closely linked to the economies of other countries, the amount of foreign capital flowing into China will obviously increase</b>，... China's economy is still recovering growth at present, and our asset prices are very attractive. Compared with other countries, the interest rate spread is relatively large, and foreign capital inflow is inevitable....<b>On the one hand, it encourages the cross-border flow of capital elements and becomes more and more open. On the other hand, we can't cause too much volatility in the domestic financial market...</b>— — Source: China.com Looking back at this news, I think those who manipulate the stock price in groups and the sheep who are greedy to buy group funds should understand why this year's spring dream is so easy to break. Many of the so-called personal alpha are just a wave in the macro tide.</p><p>Contrary<b>The Federal Reserve, due to being kidnapped by interest groups and political party interests, has instead made US stocks reproduce the scandal farce of 1998-2015, such as A-share banking speculation, backdoor listing of junk stocks, malicious long-going leveraged disks, etc.</b>。</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cfsX_mUQZzNlIqOjW2SjEg\">泷韬全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b91d2081cb120cded92ed6dfb71e582","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cfsX_mUQZzNlIqOjW2SjEg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117103484","content_text":"爆仓：风险传导路径这次对冲基金爆仓事件，我们也算亲历者。新闻里说的被强平股票，除了有一支中概传媒股我们持有多头（但有美股传媒空头配对），其余中概股，教育股，传媒股的名单里，大概80% 我们都已经提前做空，只是没有拿到周五“最终审判日”那一天 —— 因为去年二季度开始，美股人为操纵市场严重，A股化，经常有逼空行为，所以为了风险管理，我们空头不敢长期持仓，只能不断按性价比调换。我们并不确定是谁爆仓，但无关紧要。该事件的发展虽然有其偶然性，但也有其必然性。先尝试分析一下这次事件的传导前因后果。我们认为两大主因：通胀预期上升，打击美股去年表现最好的科技，高估值板块；Biden继承Trump的对华政策，从经济、军事、金融全面包围，包括对中概股金融打击。风险传导路径：通胀预期 → 美债利率上涨 → 美股科技股、成长股下跌美债利率上涨 → 美元上涨 → 新兴市场下跌 → 港股科技（抱团股）下跌，中概股下跌美国立法驱逐中概股 → 对冲基金中概股持仓波动放大 → margin call → 美股传媒（VIAC, DISCA）被平仓以上股票风格和ARK持仓重叠，ARK躺枪最倒霉的是ARK —— 本身因为通胀预期上升，导致ARK持仓大受打击。这次平空杀出来的对冲基金被强平“黑天鹅”对ARK雪上加霜 —— 由于持仓风格高度重叠，躺枪。周一ARKK基金再跌2.5%。来源：泷韬全球宏观TME/ARKK共振 来源：泷韬全球宏观VIAC/TME共振 来源：泷韬全球宏观溯源：全球央妈的溺爱 → 加杠杆、抱团对冲基金为什么敢放杠杆，追根溯源 —— 就是各国央行从2008年放水救市，从来没有解决问题，所以需要不断地放水来压制资产的波动性 —— 饮鸩止渴，实际就是央行看跌期权，压制短期波动率，把波动留给未来。但这种行为一方面鼓吹资产泡沫，压制波动，等同于提高了资产的Sharpe比率，吸引更多的人加速入市，具体体现在加杠杆和基金热卖；另一方面被深层理解政策的人，或者资本集团看破，后者肆无忌惮地放杠杆，向未来，向穷人，向全社会掠夺财富，加大贫富差距，给经济带来个更大的不稳定性 —— 赚了是自己的，亏了是国家的，或绑架全社会承担 —— 进而可以绑架央行再次放水。实际上，是央行纵容了资本的过度投机行为，2007-2008次债危机，2015年杠杆牛，2020年美股科技股泡沫，垃圾股泡沫，当前的地产泡沫... 都是一个路数。我们在下一段2020年1季度量化危机有详细阐述。央行的溺爱，鼓励了对冲基金铤而走险，通过放杠杆和抱团操纵股价。这次被高盛清盘的VIAC就是一只被对冲基金加了杠杆的抱团票，在该股下跌前，连续逼空。幸亏大股东及时割庄家韭菜，增发股票，优化了流动性，导致波动率放大。妖怪现出原形。VIAC如果想打破这种恶性循环，央行只有减少过度干预，适当加大资产波动规律，把选择权还给市场。影响和教训：局部类似 LTCM + 2015A股股灾 + 2020Q1 量化危机我们并不认为该事件是雷曼兄弟那种核弹级危机，但是其影响也许可以借鉴:LTCM危机；2015年A股杠杆盘股灾；2020年1季度量化危机。1998年，LTCM的组合非常复杂，并不是传说里的几个债券对赌，大致组合如下：Fixed Income Arbitrage：Short US swap spreadEuro Cross-SwapLong US mortgages hedgedSwap curve JapanItalian swap spreadFixed income VolatilityOn-the-run/off-the-run spreadJunk bond arbitrageEquity：Short equity volatility 空SP500和法国CAC40波动率Risk arbitrageEquity relative value 多俄罗斯低估值股票/空高估值股票Emerging Markets:Long emerging market sovereigns多俄罗斯，拉美国债Long emerging market currencyLong emerging market equity hedged to S&P 500 多新兴市场/空SP500其它：Yield curve tradesShort high-tech stocksConvertible arbitrageIndex arbitrage我们不再一一翻译，只抽重点。表面看起来，LTCM是多策略，好像各个策略间没有相关性。但实际，在亚洲金融危机和俄罗斯金融危机里，风险开始互相联动和强化：1998.8，俄罗斯债务违约，导致股票和债券、外汇暴跌，严重打击了LTCM新兴市场的债券和股票敞口；恐慌里，人们为了避险，买高估值高流动性的股票，卖低估值低流动性的股票，多俄罗斯低估值股票/空高估值股票 配对两头亏损；当月，LTCM亏损18.5亿美元；俄罗斯危机导致LTCM危机，风险传入欧美，股市大跌，波动率暴涨。LTCM在SP500和CAC40上卖出了大量的vega, 甚至占到CAC40期权市场的30%，巨亏叠加流动性风险。不只是LTCM组合内部风险共振；LTCM的策略还高度和其他投行重叠。1998.7，之前孵化LTCM的Salomon套利部门清盘，导致LTCM的多头受损（Michael Lewis，New York Times，July 1998）, 当月亏损10%。当时，还有其他投行自营盘也有类似LTCM的策略，甚至有人预判到LTCM要平仓，抢先平仓。LTCM的合伙人Victor Haghani回忆：\"就好像外面有人和我们有完全同样的持仓，除了他们规模比我们大三倍，而且他们集中清盘（it was as if there was someone out there with our exact portfolio,... only it was three times as large as ours, and they were liquidating all at once.）\" —— 谁能保证这次清盘的投行自营盘，一点没有复制爆仓的组合？这是不是觉得很像GS, MS在上周五市场开盘前就集中大宗交易倒货？LTCM: SPX/MOEX 俄罗斯1998金融危机2020年1季度量化危机：我们在去年已经解释过，由于疫情诱发金融危机，导致银行间回购市场去杠杆，而对冲基金，尤其量化对冲基金通过回购市场放了巨大的杠杆，坊间传闻5-10倍以上。波动率上升，叠加去杠杆，导致对冲基金，尤其量化，大面积亏损 —— 这其中包括风险平价基金。讽刺的是，在2019年底，刚刚经过一次回购市场流动性枯竭，导致不少对冲基金亏损。这么快他们重新犯错。更加讽刺的是，2020年3月，美国政府大力介入金融市场，，尤其Trump在3.24约谈对冲基金巨头探讨经济复工（？需要和对冲基金经理探讨复工吗？），当天市场开始一骑绝尘的大反弹，参会的对冲基金在2020年业绩神奇反转，从亏损转盈利，其中不乏一季度的空头和一季度放杠杆亏损的人。所以我们在上一段说，这次对冲基金杠杆盘爆仓，归根结底还是美联储绑架全世界放水压制了美股波动率，救了高杠杆对冲基金埋下的祸根。来源：泷韬全球宏观15年杠杆牛和LTCM, 本月A股、港股抱团股暴跌，上周杠杆盘清盘也有类似之处 —— 当时市场上2大主流策略也高度重叠，增加了系统性风险：2015年，小盘成长，科技，垃圾股 和 伪市场中性的买小盘/空大盘量化基金风格高度重叠；2021年，“茅指数”为代表泡沫化蓝筹抱团，和部分量化基金买大盘/空小盘风格高度重叠；还有我们前文说的上周被清盘的股票风格和ARK选股重叠。所以，教训从风险管理的角度，不要以为市场里不相关的资产或策略，就可以上杠杆，或叠加alpha —— 因为很可能 1 你不懂策略底层的逻辑，2 即使原理上不相关，在波动率放大或流动性枯竭的时候，它们很容易高度相关。不要以为资产或策略的历史上高Sharpe特征，就盲目上杠杆，不要以为多策略底层资产或策略间低beta，就盲目上高杠杆。无论投资者还是Prime Brokers，都引以为戒。央行和政府要保持其独立性，多关心社会最底层的利益，不要被政客、权贵绑架，盲目救市，最后可能是欲壑难平，补不完的坑；而且加剧贫富差距分化，给经济埋下隐患，导致再次被迫被权贵集团绑架。比如美国2020年，Top20对冲基金和科技巨头们的财富创史上增速记录 —— 在数以百万计的穷人被疾病威胁健康和生命，在他们失去工作的时候。别羡慕美国政府给全民发钱，那是他们用铸币税洗劫全球，尤其中国的财富来以邻为壑。事件影响：开始我认为这是个局部事件，可能问题不大，但是当我看到越来越多的Prime Brokers中招亏损的时候（也是和LTCM相似处，导致17家交易对手亏损30-50亿美金：LTCM itself estimated that its top 17 counterparties would have suffered various substantial losses — potentially between $3 billion and $5 billion in aggregate — and shared this information with the fourteen firms participating in the consortium. The firms in the consortium saw that their losses could be serious, with potential losses to some firms amounting to $300 million to $500 million each. —— Berkeley University），我想，这也许只是冰山一角。各大投行也许未来会执行更严格的风控，也许会导致其他资产逐步释放波动率，恢复本来的面目。我们将会小心谨慎观察风险的继续传导。注意，这还只是在1季度，只是由于美国通胀预期上涨，真的通胀和收水还没来，市场里已经这么多妖孽现原形。假如2季度通胀继续高企，我不能排除更大风浪的可能性。远期还有美国加税，美元回流，反垄断，一系列不确定性等待。聪明的决策者：中国现在回头看3月初郭主席的讲话，我们不得不佩服中国决策者的智慧和远见—— 提前预判断美国金融风险，预警A股，使得A股没有被牵连到这次流动性危机中。郭树清：欧美发达国家金融市场与实体经济严重背道而驰，担心国外资产泡沫破裂中国网报道，国务院新闻办公室3月2日（星期二）上午10时举行新闻发布会，人民银行党委书记、中国银保监会主席郭树清介绍推动银行业保险业高质量发展有关情况，并答记者问。美国国际市场新闻社:对比西方的主要经济体，中国已经率先开始政策正常化，尤其是货币政策，请问中外的政策步调差异会对中国的政策和市场产生一些什么样的影响？最近有些担心说，资本流入和资产泡沫有可能导致输入性的通货膨胀，您觉得这些担忧有没有理由？谢谢。郭树清:... 欧美发达国家、疫情严重的国家和一些发展中国家，都采取了积极的财政政策和极度宽松的货币政策，我们都能理解，因为毕竟要把经济稳下来，宏观政策必须采取这些措施。但是力度上、后果上可能要考虑的更多一些，因为毕竟还会产生一些副作用，现在看这些副作用已经逐步显现。一是金融市场，欧美发达国家金融市场高位运行，和实体经济严重背道而驰。金融市场应该反映实体经济的状况，如果和实体经济差别太大，就会产生问题，迟早会被迫调整，所以我们很担心金融市场，特别国外金融资产泡沫哪一天会破裂。二是流动性增加以后，由于经济已经高度全球化，中国的经济和其他国家的经济密切相连，外国资本流入中国数量会明显增加，... 中国经济目前还是恢复性增长，我们的资产价格有很大的吸引力，和其他国家相比利差比较大，外国资本流入是必然的。... 一方面鼓励资本要素跨境流动，越来越开放。另一方面，我们又不能造成国内金融市场太大的波动...—— 来源：中国网回看这则新闻，我想抱团操纵股价的人和贪婪买抱团基金的羊群们，应该明白为什么今年春梦这么容易碎的原因。所谓个人的alpha，很多不过是宏观大潮里的一朵浪花。反观美联储，由于被利益集团和政党利益绑架，反而让美股重现了1998-2015年的A股做庄炒作，垃圾股借壳上市，杠杆盘恶意做多等丑闻闹剧 —— 咎由自取。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356261844,"gmtCreate":1616779812888,"gmtModify":1704798972607,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356261844","repostId":"1170764582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170764582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616765445,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170764582?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170764582","media":" 一瑜中的","summary":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Yu Fu Chunsheng</p><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p>After the $1.9 trillion relief landed, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan quickly heated up. As the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report takes the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blueprint, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures and impact), in order to make a rough understanding of the measures and impact of the formal reconstruction plan in the future.</p><p>Biden Infrastructure: How to Build?</p><p><b>1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</b></p><p>Very necessary. First, the state of infrastructure is worrying. According to the latest assessment by ASCE, infrastructure in the United States is still \"mostly below standard\", showing a relatively severe \"deterioration\" condition. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the infrastructure sector in 2019, and fifth in 2002. Second, there is a massive investment gap. In the next decade, the total investment gap in infrastructure has reached 2.59 trillion USD. Finally, infrastructure spending is far lower than in major economies, with Europe spending 5% of GDP, China spending about 8% of GDP, and the United States only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually \"out of reach\". As the infrastructure stock continues to grow, state and local governments have to shoulder more operating and maintenance costs, and the amount of new investment has declined since the early 2000s.</p><p><b>2. Is there any precedent for federal government-led infrastructure investment?</b></p><p>Historically, Biden's infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States in the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditure of 18 billion USD, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The least invested was the Obama ARRA Act, which spent $120 billion on infrastructure, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's interstate highway cost $25 billion, or 5.6 percent of 1956 GDP, and Clinton's information highway plan totaled 400 billion, or 5.8 percent of 1993 GDP. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is about $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><b>3. What are the specific measures for Biden's infrastructure?</b></p><p>The plan proposed on the Biden campaign website is $2 trillion over a 10-year period, representing 9.3% of 2019 GDP; Among them, infrastructure investment was USD 1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very broad. It covers eight areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean electricity investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Employment promotion and the reconstruction of the middle class are the \"highlights\". 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is inherently consistent with the need to create employment. It should be noted that the investment amount in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward a clear investment amount.</p><p><b>4. What impact does Biden's infrastructure have on the U.S. economy?</b></p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated by the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (evaluated by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion to 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on jobs: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next decade. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and \"significantly increase\" in GDP in the long term.</p><p>Biden Tax Raises: How?</p><p><b>First, Biden's tax increase is basically certain.</b></p><p>Three reasons: 1) Tax increases are one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that they will be fulfilled. 2) It is explicitly stated on the Biden campaign website that 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by \"ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair share of (tax) revenue\". 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that some of the spending on the next bill (the Biden Rebuild Plan) will be raised by tax hikes.</p><p><b>Second, there is a precedent for tax increases.</b></p><p>Since the 1950s, the overall income tax rate in the United States has shown a downward trend, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the \"Vietnam War Surtax\" imposed in 1968-1970 to cover Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the growing deficit. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was the largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. Its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.</p><p><b>Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; Corporate tax burden increased, but manufacturing industry was encouraged to return.</b></p><p>The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have been raised. On the one hand, increase the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups, etc. On the other hand, re-increase the corporate income tax rate and adjust some other corporate taxes.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the U.S. economy?</b></p><p>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth over the next decade, reducing GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% over the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax hikes could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax hikes would reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over the decade). In addition, the Tax Foundation expects that the tax increase will reduce wages and lose jobs, narrow the income gap but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p><b>Two key points in time: When is a formal redevelopment plan likely to be launched?</b></p><p><b>The first key point in time: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden proposed the \"American Relief Plan\" on January 14 this year, he made it clear: \"When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will present my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future.'\" Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the pandemic is the first priority. On February 11, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said, \"We will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 relief bill.\" Because the American relief plan encountered resistance in Congress and was not officially implemented until March 14, Biden has not attended the joint session of Congress so far, and the reconstruction plan has not been formally proposed.</p><p>When is the joint session of Congress convened? That's the key. March 24 White House spokesman Psaki said that no time has been set yet. Historically, the latest time for a president to attend a joint session of Congress and deliver a \"speech to a joint session of Congress\" is February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget proposal to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan can pass the committees under the House and Senate in May, so we expect that the total scale and specific project details of the reconstruction plan will probably be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>Second key point in time: October.</b></p><p>First, the Democratic Party can start the \"budget reconciliation process\" again after October. Second, the positive statements from top Democrats suggest that they will move the reconstruction plan to a vote in Congress as quickly as possible or move the reconstruction plan to a budget reconciliation process at the start of the new fiscal year.</p><p>Risk alert: Disagreement within the Democratic Party over the reconstruction plan.</p><p><b>Report Directory</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Report Text</p><p>After the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief Plan, discussions on the Biden Reconstruction Plan (\"Biden Infrastructure Plan\") (\"Biden Infrastructure Plan\"), which is also referred to by domestic and foreign reports and reports because most of its measures are related to infrastructure), have rapidly heated up. According to Bloomberg's report on March 22nd, the near-term reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House press secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd, \"Time is running fast, so he will discuss with his team this week what options, scale and scope are available.\" According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will present his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he first attends the joint session of Congress and delivers a \"speech at the joint session of Congress,\" so the reconstruction plan may be officially \"unveiled\" in April.</p><p>As Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the campaign as a blueprint for analysis.</p><p>1. Biden Infrastructure: How to \"Build\"?</p><p>Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four questions. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the US government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment from historical comparison? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure project? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure project on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</p><p>The current state of infrastructure in the United States is worrying, and large-scale investment is very necessary. Most of the infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful lives and are nearing the point of \"scrapping\".</p><p>First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation level is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure at \"D +\" (A-F) in 2017 and upgraded to \"C-\" in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also indicates that US infrastructure is still \"mostly below standard\", showing a relatively severe \"deterioration\" condition. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, down eight places in 17 years.</p><p>Second, there is a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States at present. If it is not made up, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total U.S. infrastructure investment shortfall has reached $2.59 trillion in the next decade, and if it is not made up, the U.S. will lose 10 trillion GDP and 2.4 trillion exports by 2039. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study argues that $150 billion in annual infrastructure investment is needed from 2017 to 2030 to keep up with the demand for infrastructure in the U.S. economy.</p><p>Third, infrastructure expenditure in the United States is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly depends on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China spends about 8% of its GDP on infrastructure on average, compared to only 2.4% in the United States [1]. Moreover, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States relies largely on local and state government spending to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions fund most infrastructure at the national level, but only 25% of U.S. public infrastructure funding in 2017 came from the federal government, a figure well below the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government is taking less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and the amount of new investment in infrastructure has been declining since the early 2000s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(2) Has the federal government made a big investment in infrastructure in history?</p><p>Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the federal government of the United States has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditure of 18 billion USD, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment was in Obama's ARRA Act, which spent $120 billion on infrastructure, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's interstate highway cost $25 billion, or about 5.6 percent of 1956 GDP, and Clinton's information highway plan totaled 400 billion, or 5.8 percent of 1993 GDP. Infrastructure spending posted on the Biden campaign website is about $1.3 trillion, or about 6.1% of GDP in 2019, the second-largest investment since the last century.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Roosevelt's New Deal</p><p>After the Great Depression, to stimulate the recovery of employment, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that employment opportunities could be directly created through extensive public works programs. Through the establishment of the Federal Economic Relief Agency, the Public Works Administration (PWA), and the Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA), it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government spent as much as $18 billion on engineering and direct relief costs, accounting for 31 percent of U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14 percent of U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at broad spending, the total federal spending of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of U.S. GDP in 1941.</p><p>Large-scale public works spending has also yielded remarkable results: for public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed approximately 1.14 street and highway projects totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, the WPA alone provided jobs to approximately eight million people in 1935-1943.</p><p>2. Eisenhower: Interstate Highway</p><p>In the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of the U.S. interstate highway system. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highways Act, receiving a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, a cost that would be paid for by tax revenue such as gas taxes deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90 percent of the total expenditure and the remaining 10 percent paid by the states. The cost of building the interstate highway accounted for about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.</p><p>Clinton: \"Information Highway Project\"</p><p>In 1992, U.S. presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information highway during his campaign. After Clinton came to power in 1993, he officially implemented the \"Information Highway Plan\". The planned investment is $400 billion over a period of 20 years to gradually lay telecom fiber optic cables to all household users. In 1994, the United States government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communication and telecommunication optical cables, and forming a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. Total investment in the Information Highway program accounted for 5.8% of U.S. GDP in 1993.</p><p>4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus bill</p><p>After the financial crisis, Obama signed the fiscal stimulus bill, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), in February 2009, with an initial total size of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the total expenditure to be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion would be spent on infrastructure projects, including: 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for federal building modernization, 31 billion for school facilities and science facilities modernization, 6 billion for water conservancy projects, and 5 billion for housing climate modification projects. The infrastructure expenditure of ARRA accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.</p><p>(3) The specific measures of Biden's infrastructure plan?</p><p>Three Key Points of the Infrastructure Plan</p><p>The \"Building Modern, Sustainable Infrastructure and a Fair, Clean Energy Future\" plan proposed on the Biden campaign website is planned to span a 10-year period with a total scale of $2 trillion, accounting for about 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we look at infrastructure expenditure alone, it is about 1.3 trillion USD, accounting for about 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plans published on the campaign website have two characteristics:</p><p>First, the content is very extensive. Plans go beyond traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also include new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development, and many other areas.</p><p>Second, the promotion of employment and the reconstruction of the middle class are the \"highlights\". It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class are a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure expansion. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in electric power will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, and investment in agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs.</p><p>Third, leave manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing migration is inherently consistent with the need for job creation. This statement has been mentioned several times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automakers are encouraged to build or restructure full-vehicle or component factories domestically; Invest in battery technology but make sure battery production takes place domestically and so on.</p><p>In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amounts in various areas of the infrastructure plan are still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the plan brief is very \"rough\", there is no very detailed spending plan, and only a few projects are proposed for investment, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion in the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; Invest $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges in the first year of administration; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas; Additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year Transformation Project Fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and more. The amount of investment clearly mentioned in the plan brief is only more than 800 billion US dollars.</p><p>2. Not only infrastructure, but also plans to cover eight major areas</p><p>Overall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not only limited to the \"infrastructure field\", but covers a wide range of eight areas, including modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, community equality development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).</p><p>First, build modern infrastructure facilities.</p><p>1) Road rehabilitation and construction. In the first year of his administration, he spent $50 billion on repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The Second Railway Revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. Build high-quality public transportation systems in cities with more than 100,000 people by 2030. Additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve airports. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport improvement projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA Transportation Infrastructure Grant Project grant from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion a year to the Army Corps of Engineers to modernize locks in inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor water systems for lead and other contaminants, and hold polluting businesses accountable. Investing in water technology research and development, calling for private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help five cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers to participate, etc. 8) Establish a fund for transformation projects. Establish a $40 billion, 10-year Transformation Project Fund to provide assistance to large and complex infrastructure projects.</p><p>Second, enable the U.S. auto industry to lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.</p><p>1) On the demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrading of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of zero emissions for all new U.S. -made buses by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automakers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in the country. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technologies over five years while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, providing an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convening the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards to reduce air pollution.</p><p>Third, clean electricity investment: carbon-free electricity generation by 2035.</p><p>1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free electricity generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform and expand the regional electricity market. 3) Establish energy efficiency and clean electricity standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support a larger regional power market and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Investments in research and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently store it, and utilize it will be doubled.</p><p>Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.</p><p>1) Promote school modernization. Investing $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade child care and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings within 4 years, and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects for low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Build net zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halving the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more money into low-income communities to promote affordable housing and small business development.</p><p>Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.</p><p>1) Add $400 billion in federal procurement during the first term, with one focus on buying key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials over the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve problems such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capacity facilities, and other critical infrastructure.</p><p>Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.</p><p>1) Calling and mobilizing a new generation of Americans through civic climate organizations to commit to the work of protecting the environment and fighting climate change. 2) Make upfront investment to clean up the damage and impact on the environment caused by previous resource exploitation. 3) Maintaining America's farms and ranches. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon agriculture markets; Pursuing pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthen the security and resilience of food supplies; Ensuring fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.</p><p>Seventh, community equality and development.</p><p>1) Provide $5 billion annually to expand the New Markets Tax Credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poverty-stricken areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities and government administrative agencies, etc.). 5) Fully implement the \"10-20-30 Plan (allocating 10% of funding to counties where 20% or more of the population lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years in all federal programs)\".</p><p>Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises throughout the country.</p><p>1) Revitalize manufacturing. Fourfold funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support to small manufacturers in global competition; Develop low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expansion or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Financing more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program through 2025, increasing federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion in funding to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting the transfer of technology from public universities to the private sector.</p><p>(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure on the US economy?</p><p>How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effectiveness by American academics and think tanks: 1) A 2014 study by the University of Maryland showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment would increase GDP growth by about $3, which would have a greater impact during the economic recession. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan — roughly 0.6 percent of GDP — would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) Every 1 percentage point increase in GDP in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy, according to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the rate of return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies, every $100 spent…would increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier for infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.</p><p>We can learn from the evaluation results of the infrastructure effect of American academics and think tanks, and roughly estimate the impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the American economy and employment as a whole.</p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is about 1.3 trillion USD, with an investment cycle of 10 years. The average annual expenditure is about 130 billion USD, accounting for about 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Estimated according to the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), the additional output contribution to GDP will be about 52 billion ~390 billion USD every year in the next ten years, which is about 0.2% ~1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.</p><p>2) Impact on employment: According to the University of Chicago's employment impact estimate, 1.3 trillion infrastructure spending will create more than 2 million jobs a year over the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be generated in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next decade.</p><p>3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to 2% to 9% GDP growth in the short term, \"significantly\" GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth would lead to around 3% to 4% growth in S&P 500 company earnings [4].</p><p>2. Biden Tax Increase: How to Increase?</p><p>Similarly, we understand Biden's tax hike from four questions. First, is Biden determined to raise taxes, and what is the purpose of raising taxes? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, how does the tax increase affect the U.S. economy?</p><p>(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?</p><p>Is Biden going to raise taxes? Tax increases should be a yes. First, Biden clearly put forward the tax increase plan during the election campaign, which is one of his campaign slogans, and it is highly likely that it will be fulfilled. Second, Biden's campaign website says that up to $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by \"ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair share of [tax].\" Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that some of the spending on the next bill, a reference to Biden's Reconstruction Plan Act, will be raised by tax hikes.</p><p>Biden's three purposes of raising taxes are to raise money for the reconstruction plan, to deliver on campaign promises, and to adjust the tax system to promote tax equity and to regulate the wealth gap through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich and high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income earners has obviously expanded.</p><p>(2) Is there a precedent for tax increases?</p><p>Prior to 1950, the maximum marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increases was to finance the war. During World War I and World War II, the maximum marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax increased sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States has been gradually declining, with many tax cuts and few tax increases.</p><p>Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: the Kennedy tax cut in 1963, the Carter tax cut in 1979, the Reagan tax cut in the 1980s, the Bush tax cut in 2001, and the Trump tax cut in 2017.</p><p>The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three.</p><p>The first time was in the late 1960s. The main reason for the tax increase was war. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenses of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a \"Vietnam War Surtax\", which was abolished after 1970.</p><p>The second time was in 1990, in response to the deficit increase caused by the sharp increase of social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, Bush passed the Supervisory Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 in 1990, which increased the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.</p><p>The third was the Clinton tax increase in 1993, and this was also the largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase in 1993, raising the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax from 31 percent to 39.6 percent and the maximum marginal rate of corporate income tax from 34 percent to 35 percent. It is worth noting that the increase of the highest marginal personal income tax rate from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by tax increases, but because the Bush tax cut period expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before tax cuts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(3) How does Biden plan to raise taxes?</p><p>Biden's tax hikes are mainly in two ways,<b>First, payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax for high-income groups, and second, re-increase the corporate income tax rate and adjust some corporate taxes.</b>As can be seen from the specific details of the following provisions, Biden's tax increase target is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have been increased.</p><p>1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces</p><p>1) A 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax, split equally between employer and employee, for those earning more than $400,000 a year. Under the preceding tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 a year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.</p><p>2) Increase the maximum personal income tax rate on taxable income over $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% under current law; For the group with an annual income of more than $400,000, even with the tax benefit of itemized deductions, its personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restoring the \"Pease Limit\" on deductions for items with taxable income in excess of $400,000; Phase out eligible business income deductions for groups with taxable income exceeding $400,000.</p><p>3) Taxing long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at an ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains taxes.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Expand the Labor Income Tax Credit for childless employees over the age of 65 to provide renewable energy related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependents Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum repayment rate from 35% to 50%. Increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000 in 2021, along with an additional credit of $600 for children under 6, which will be fully refunded by the CTC. It is worth mentioning that the measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the tax credit policy for first-time homebuyers with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.</p><p>5) Restoring rates and exemptions for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After the Trump tax reform in 2017, the exemption for estate and gift taxes for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, with the tax rate still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the exemption will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40 percent to 45 percent.</p><p>6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts, such as 401 (k) s and IRAs, by providing refundable tax credits in place of traditional deductions; Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expand the premium tax credit under the Affordable Care Act; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credits for low-income earners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Adjustment of corporate tax system: tax burden increases, but manufacturing industry is encouraged to return</p><p>1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.</p><p>2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax – businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.</p><p>3) Doubling the Global Intangible Low Tax Income rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. Proposed country-by-country assessment of GILTI in overseas subsidiaries, removing the provision that treated GILTI of less than 10% of qualified corporate asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.</p><p>Prior to the 2017 tax reform, the U.S. generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and U.S. companies could apply to defer taxation on the active business earnings of overseas subsidiaries until the earnings were repatriated to the U.S. as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the earnings from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies, which would not be taxed even if they were repatriated (but still taxed on the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). Concerned that completely exempting multinational corporations from overseas income could exacerbate their practice of transferring profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, the US Congress has created a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on global low-tax income from intangible assets to discourage profit transfers. GILTI refers to income generated from intangible assets such as patents, trademarks and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly mobile, and the tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Establish manufacturing tax credits; Expand and make the tax credits in new markets permanent; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including tax credits for carbon capture, use and storage and tax credits for residential energy efficiency, and restore the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Electric Vehicle Tax Credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.</p><p>5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: a 10% surtax on those businesses that \"move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market\". Provide a preferential 10% \"Made in America\" tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have been closed or are about to be closed, reorganize facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wage scale.</p><p>(4) The Impact of Biden's Tax Increase on the US Economy</p><p>The impact of tax increases on the economy is more complicated, and we mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increase on the US economy.<b>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth over the next decade, reducing GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% over the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax hikes could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax hikes would reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).</b>In addition, the Tax Foundation expects that the tax increase will reduce wages and lose jobs, narrowing the income gap but reducing the overall residents' after-tax income.</p><p>Estimates of the Tax Foundation</p><p>1) Impact of fiscal revenue: The Biden tax plan will raise about $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, the capital stock by 3.75%, the long-term average wage level by 1.15%, and the loss of 542,000 jobs. 3) Impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will result in a reduction in after-tax income of around 7.7% for the richest 1% of taxpayers by 2030, and an average decline of 1.9% for all taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. TaxPolicy Center</p><p>1) Economic impact: The GDP of the United States will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next decade, and the impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (about 8% of total revenue in those 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. The tax program's impact on federal revenue will turn positive by 2040, and its positive effects will gradually increase in subsequent years in 2040.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3. Key time point: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?</p><p>At present, Biden's team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time nodes worth paying attention to:</p><p><b>The first key point in time: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden first proposed the \"American Relief Plan\" on January 14 this year, he made it clear: \"Next month, in my first joint session of Congress, I will present my 'Recovery Plan to Build Back for a Better Future' [5].\" Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the pandemic is the number one priority. On February 11, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said, \"We will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 relief bill.\" Because the American Relief Plan encountered resistance in Congress and was not officially implemented until March 14, Biden has yet to attend the joint session of Congress, and the reconstruction plan has not been formally proposed.</p><p>When is the joint session of Congress convened? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesman Psaki said, \"There is no time set yet…We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will keep in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when.\" Historically, the latest time for a president to attend a joint session of Congress and deliver a \"speech to a joint session of Congress\" is February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, [6] when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget proposal to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan can pass the committees under the House and Senate in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale and specific project details of the reconstruction plan will be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>Second key point in time: October.</b></p><p>The implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. Democrats currently control the House and can easily pass bills in the House. But the Democrats have only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republicans, and cannot bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes are needed). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. One is to secure the support of at least 10 more Republican senators on the premise of guaranteeing the agreement of all Democratic senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only requires 51 votes to pass the Senate.</p><p>\"We hear that the so-called infrastructure bill that could be introduced in the coming months could actually be a Trojan horse hiding big tax hikes and other jobs-damaging left-wing policies,\" Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday.</p><p>For Biden's reconstruction plan to come to fruition, the biggest possibility is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once in a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process once in each fiscal year, but the bill generally covers not only one area, but basically covers all three areas. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once in a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the \"quota\" of fiscal year 2021. If you want to start the budget reconciliation process again, you can only wait until fiscal year 2022. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can start the \"budget reconciliation process\" again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to pass the reconstruction plan bill quickly. For example, House Speaker Pelosi wants Congress to act quickly to develop a transformative infrastructure plan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>IV Appendix: Details of Biden's Reconstruction Plan</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1584436024241","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? 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How much impact does it have on the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 一瑜中的</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 21:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Yu Fu Chunsheng</p><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p>After the $1.9 trillion relief landed, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan quickly heated up. As the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report takes the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blueprint, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures and impact), in order to make a rough understanding of the measures and impact of the formal reconstruction plan in the future.</p><p>Biden Infrastructure: How to Build?</p><p><b>1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</b></p><p>Very necessary. First, the state of infrastructure is worrying. According to the latest assessment by ASCE, infrastructure in the United States is still \"mostly below standard\", showing a relatively severe \"deterioration\" condition. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the infrastructure sector in 2019, and fifth in 2002. Second, there is a massive investment gap. In the next decade, the total investment gap in infrastructure has reached 2.59 trillion USD. Finally, infrastructure spending is far lower than in major economies, with Europe spending 5% of GDP, China spending about 8% of GDP, and the United States only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually \"out of reach\". As the infrastructure stock continues to grow, state and local governments have to shoulder more operating and maintenance costs, and the amount of new investment has declined since the early 2000s.</p><p><b>2. Is there any precedent for federal government-led infrastructure investment?</b></p><p>Historically, Biden's infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States in the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditure of 18 billion USD, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The least invested was the Obama ARRA Act, which spent $120 billion on infrastructure, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's interstate highway cost $25 billion, or 5.6 percent of 1956 GDP, and Clinton's information highway plan totaled 400 billion, or 5.8 percent of 1993 GDP. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is about $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><b>3. What are the specific measures for Biden's infrastructure?</b></p><p>The plan proposed on the Biden campaign website is $2 trillion over a 10-year period, representing 9.3% of 2019 GDP; Among them, infrastructure investment was USD 1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very broad. It covers eight areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean electricity investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Employment promotion and the reconstruction of the middle class are the \"highlights\". 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is inherently consistent with the need to create employment. It should be noted that the investment amount in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward a clear investment amount.</p><p><b>4. What impact does Biden's infrastructure have on the U.S. economy?</b></p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated by the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (evaluated by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion to 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on jobs: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next decade. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and \"significantly increase\" in GDP in the long term.</p><p>Biden Tax Raises: How?</p><p><b>First, Biden's tax increase is basically certain.</b></p><p>Three reasons: 1) Tax increases are one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that they will be fulfilled. 2) It is explicitly stated on the Biden campaign website that 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by \"ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair share of (tax) revenue\". 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that some of the spending on the next bill (the Biden Rebuild Plan) will be raised by tax hikes.</p><p><b>Second, there is a precedent for tax increases.</b></p><p>Since the 1950s, the overall income tax rate in the United States has shown a downward trend, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the \"Vietnam War Surtax\" imposed in 1968-1970 to cover Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the growing deficit. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was the largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. Its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.</p><p><b>Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; Corporate tax burden increased, but manufacturing industry was encouraged to return.</b></p><p>The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have been raised. On the one hand, increase the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups, etc. On the other hand, re-increase the corporate income tax rate and adjust some other corporate taxes.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the U.S. economy?</b></p><p>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth over the next decade, reducing GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% over the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax hikes could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax hikes would reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over the decade). In addition, the Tax Foundation expects that the tax increase will reduce wages and lose jobs, narrow the income gap but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p><b>Two key points in time: When is a formal redevelopment plan likely to be launched?</b></p><p><b>The first key point in time: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden proposed the \"American Relief Plan\" on January 14 this year, he made it clear: \"When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will present my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future.'\" Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the pandemic is the first priority. On February 11, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said, \"We will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 relief bill.\" Because the American relief plan encountered resistance in Congress and was not officially implemented until March 14, Biden has not attended the joint session of Congress so far, and the reconstruction plan has not been formally proposed.</p><p>When is the joint session of Congress convened? That's the key. March 24 White House spokesman Psaki said that no time has been set yet. Historically, the latest time for a president to attend a joint session of Congress and deliver a \"speech to a joint session of Congress\" is February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget proposal to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan can pass the committees under the House and Senate in May, so we expect that the total scale and specific project details of the reconstruction plan will probably be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>Second key point in time: October.</b></p><p>First, the Democratic Party can start the \"budget reconciliation process\" again after October. Second, the positive statements from top Democrats suggest that they will move the reconstruction plan to a vote in Congress as quickly as possible or move the reconstruction plan to a budget reconciliation process at the start of the new fiscal year.</p><p>Risk alert: Disagreement within the Democratic Party over the reconstruction plan.</p><p><b>Report Directory</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Report Text</p><p>After the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief Plan, discussions on the Biden Reconstruction Plan (\"Biden Infrastructure Plan\") (\"Biden Infrastructure Plan\"), which is also referred to by domestic and foreign reports and reports because most of its measures are related to infrastructure), have rapidly heated up. According to Bloomberg's report on March 22nd, the near-term reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House press secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd, \"Time is running fast, so he will discuss with his team this week what options, scale and scope are available.\" According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will present his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he first attends the joint session of Congress and delivers a \"speech at the joint session of Congress,\" so the reconstruction plan may be officially \"unveiled\" in April.</p><p>As Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the campaign as a blueprint for analysis.</p><p>1. Biden Infrastructure: How to \"Build\"?</p><p>Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four questions. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the US government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment from historical comparison? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure project? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure project on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</p><p>The current state of infrastructure in the United States is worrying, and large-scale investment is very necessary. Most of the infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful lives and are nearing the point of \"scrapping\".</p><p>First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation level is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure at \"D +\" (A-F) in 2017 and upgraded to \"C-\" in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also indicates that US infrastructure is still \"mostly below standard\", showing a relatively severe \"deterioration\" condition. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, down eight places in 17 years.</p><p>Second, there is a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States at present. If it is not made up, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total U.S. infrastructure investment shortfall has reached $2.59 trillion in the next decade, and if it is not made up, the U.S. will lose 10 trillion GDP and 2.4 trillion exports by 2039. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study argues that $150 billion in annual infrastructure investment is needed from 2017 to 2030 to keep up with the demand for infrastructure in the U.S. economy.</p><p>Third, infrastructure expenditure in the United States is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly depends on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China spends about 8% of its GDP on infrastructure on average, compared to only 2.4% in the United States [1]. Moreover, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States relies largely on local and state government spending to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions fund most infrastructure at the national level, but only 25% of U.S. public infrastructure funding in 2017 came from the federal government, a figure well below the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government is taking less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and the amount of new investment in infrastructure has been declining since the early 2000s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(2) Has the federal government made a big investment in infrastructure in history?</p><p>Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the federal government of the United States has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditure of 18 billion USD, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment was in Obama's ARRA Act, which spent $120 billion on infrastructure, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's interstate highway cost $25 billion, or about 5.6 percent of 1956 GDP, and Clinton's information highway plan totaled 400 billion, or 5.8 percent of 1993 GDP. Infrastructure spending posted on the Biden campaign website is about $1.3 trillion, or about 6.1% of GDP in 2019, the second-largest investment since the last century.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Roosevelt's New Deal</p><p>After the Great Depression, to stimulate the recovery of employment, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that employment opportunities could be directly created through extensive public works programs. Through the establishment of the Federal Economic Relief Agency, the Public Works Administration (PWA), and the Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA), it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government spent as much as $18 billion on engineering and direct relief costs, accounting for 31 percent of U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14 percent of U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at broad spending, the total federal spending of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of U.S. GDP in 1941.</p><p>Large-scale public works spending has also yielded remarkable results: for public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed approximately 1.14 street and highway projects totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, the WPA alone provided jobs to approximately eight million people in 1935-1943.</p><p>2. Eisenhower: Interstate Highway</p><p>In the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of the U.S. interstate highway system. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highways Act, receiving a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, a cost that would be paid for by tax revenue such as gas taxes deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90 percent of the total expenditure and the remaining 10 percent paid by the states. The cost of building the interstate highway accounted for about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.</p><p>Clinton: \"Information Highway Project\"</p><p>In 1992, U.S. presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information highway during his campaign. After Clinton came to power in 1993, he officially implemented the \"Information Highway Plan\". The planned investment is $400 billion over a period of 20 years to gradually lay telecom fiber optic cables to all household users. In 1994, the United States government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communication and telecommunication optical cables, and forming a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. Total investment in the Information Highway program accounted for 5.8% of U.S. GDP in 1993.</p><p>4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus bill</p><p>After the financial crisis, Obama signed the fiscal stimulus bill, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), in February 2009, with an initial total size of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the total expenditure to be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion would be spent on infrastructure projects, including: 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for federal building modernization, 31 billion for school facilities and science facilities modernization, 6 billion for water conservancy projects, and 5 billion for housing climate modification projects. The infrastructure expenditure of ARRA accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.</p><p>(3) The specific measures of Biden's infrastructure plan?</p><p>Three Key Points of the Infrastructure Plan</p><p>The \"Building Modern, Sustainable Infrastructure and a Fair, Clean Energy Future\" plan proposed on the Biden campaign website is planned to span a 10-year period with a total scale of $2 trillion, accounting for about 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we look at infrastructure expenditure alone, it is about 1.3 trillion USD, accounting for about 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plans published on the campaign website have two characteristics:</p><p>First, the content is very extensive. Plans go beyond traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also include new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development, and many other areas.</p><p>Second, the promotion of employment and the reconstruction of the middle class are the \"highlights\". It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class are a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure expansion. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in electric power will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, and investment in agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs.</p><p>Third, leave manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing migration is inherently consistent with the need for job creation. This statement has been mentioned several times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automakers are encouraged to build or restructure full-vehicle or component factories domestically; Invest in battery technology but make sure battery production takes place domestically and so on.</p><p>In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amounts in various areas of the infrastructure plan are still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the plan brief is very \"rough\", there is no very detailed spending plan, and only a few projects are proposed for investment, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion in the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; Invest $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges in the first year of administration; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas; Additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year Transformation Project Fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and more. The amount of investment clearly mentioned in the plan brief is only more than 800 billion US dollars.</p><p>2. Not only infrastructure, but also plans to cover eight major areas</p><p>Overall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not only limited to the \"infrastructure field\", but covers a wide range of eight areas, including modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, community equality development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).</p><p>First, build modern infrastructure facilities.</p><p>1) Road rehabilitation and construction. In the first year of his administration, he spent $50 billion on repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The Second Railway Revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. Build high-quality public transportation systems in cities with more than 100,000 people by 2030. Additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve airports. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport improvement projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA Transportation Infrastructure Grant Project grant from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion a year to the Army Corps of Engineers to modernize locks in inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor water systems for lead and other contaminants, and hold polluting businesses accountable. Investing in water technology research and development, calling for private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help five cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers to participate, etc. 8) Establish a fund for transformation projects. Establish a $40 billion, 10-year Transformation Project Fund to provide assistance to large and complex infrastructure projects.</p><p>Second, enable the U.S. auto industry to lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.</p><p>1) On the demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrading of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of zero emissions for all new U.S. -made buses by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automakers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in the country. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technologies over five years while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, providing an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convening the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards to reduce air pollution.</p><p>Third, clean electricity investment: carbon-free electricity generation by 2035.</p><p>1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free electricity generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform and expand the regional electricity market. 3) Establish energy efficiency and clean electricity standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support a larger regional power market and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Investments in research and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently store it, and utilize it will be doubled.</p><p>Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.</p><p>1) Promote school modernization. Investing $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade child care and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings within 4 years, and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects for low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Build net zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halving the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more money into low-income communities to promote affordable housing and small business development.</p><p>Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.</p><p>1) Add $400 billion in federal procurement during the first term, with one focus on buying key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials over the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve problems such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capacity facilities, and other critical infrastructure.</p><p>Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.</p><p>1) Calling and mobilizing a new generation of Americans through civic climate organizations to commit to the work of protecting the environment and fighting climate change. 2) Make upfront investment to clean up the damage and impact on the environment caused by previous resource exploitation. 3) Maintaining America's farms and ranches. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon agriculture markets; Pursuing pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthen the security and resilience of food supplies; Ensuring fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.</p><p>Seventh, community equality and development.</p><p>1) Provide $5 billion annually to expand the New Markets Tax Credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poverty-stricken areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities and government administrative agencies, etc.). 5) Fully implement the \"10-20-30 Plan (allocating 10% of funding to counties where 20% or more of the population lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years in all federal programs)\".</p><p>Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises throughout the country.</p><p>1) Revitalize manufacturing. Fourfold funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support to small manufacturers in global competition; Develop low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expansion or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Financing more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program through 2025, increasing federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion in funding to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting the transfer of technology from public universities to the private sector.</p><p>(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure on the US economy?</p><p>How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effectiveness by American academics and think tanks: 1) A 2014 study by the University of Maryland showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment would increase GDP growth by about $3, which would have a greater impact during the economic recession. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan — roughly 0.6 percent of GDP — would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) Every 1 percentage point increase in GDP in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy, according to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the rate of return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies, every $100 spent…would increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier for infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.</p><p>We can learn from the evaluation results of the infrastructure effect of American academics and think tanks, and roughly estimate the impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the American economy and employment as a whole.</p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is about 1.3 trillion USD, with an investment cycle of 10 years. The average annual expenditure is about 130 billion USD, accounting for about 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Estimated according to the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), the additional output contribution to GDP will be about 52 billion ~390 billion USD every year in the next ten years, which is about 0.2% ~1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.</p><p>2) Impact on employment: According to the University of Chicago's employment impact estimate, 1.3 trillion infrastructure spending will create more than 2 million jobs a year over the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be generated in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next decade.</p><p>3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to 2% to 9% GDP growth in the short term, \"significantly\" GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth would lead to around 3% to 4% growth in S&P 500 company earnings [4].</p><p>2. Biden Tax Increase: How to Increase?</p><p>Similarly, we understand Biden's tax hike from four questions. First, is Biden determined to raise taxes, and what is the purpose of raising taxes? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, how does the tax increase affect the U.S. economy?</p><p>(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?</p><p>Is Biden going to raise taxes? Tax increases should be a yes. First, Biden clearly put forward the tax increase plan during the election campaign, which is one of his campaign slogans, and it is highly likely that it will be fulfilled. Second, Biden's campaign website says that up to $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by \"ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair share of [tax].\" Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that some of the spending on the next bill, a reference to Biden's Reconstruction Plan Act, will be raised by tax hikes.</p><p>Biden's three purposes of raising taxes are to raise money for the reconstruction plan, to deliver on campaign promises, and to adjust the tax system to promote tax equity and to regulate the wealth gap through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich and high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income earners has obviously expanded.</p><p>(2) Is there a precedent for tax increases?</p><p>Prior to 1950, the maximum marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increases was to finance the war. During World War I and World War II, the maximum marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax increased sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States has been gradually declining, with many tax cuts and few tax increases.</p><p>Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: the Kennedy tax cut in 1963, the Carter tax cut in 1979, the Reagan tax cut in the 1980s, the Bush tax cut in 2001, and the Trump tax cut in 2017.</p><p>The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three.</p><p>The first time was in the late 1960s. The main reason for the tax increase was war. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenses of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a \"Vietnam War Surtax\", which was abolished after 1970.</p><p>The second time was in 1990, in response to the deficit increase caused by the sharp increase of social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, Bush passed the Supervisory Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 in 1990, which increased the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.</p><p>The third was the Clinton tax increase in 1993, and this was also the largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase in 1993, raising the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax from 31 percent to 39.6 percent and the maximum marginal rate of corporate income tax from 34 percent to 35 percent. It is worth noting that the increase of the highest marginal personal income tax rate from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by tax increases, but because the Bush tax cut period expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before tax cuts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(3) How does Biden plan to raise taxes?</p><p>Biden's tax hikes are mainly in two ways,<b>First, payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax for high-income groups, and second, re-increase the corporate income tax rate and adjust some corporate taxes.</b>As can be seen from the specific details of the following provisions, Biden's tax increase target is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have been increased.</p><p>1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces</p><p>1) A 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax, split equally between employer and employee, for those earning more than $400,000 a year. Under the preceding tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 a year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.</p><p>2) Increase the maximum personal income tax rate on taxable income over $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% under current law; For the group with an annual income of more than $400,000, even with the tax benefit of itemized deductions, its personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restoring the \"Pease Limit\" on deductions for items with taxable income in excess of $400,000; Phase out eligible business income deductions for groups with taxable income exceeding $400,000.</p><p>3) Taxing long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at an ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains taxes.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Expand the Labor Income Tax Credit for childless employees over the age of 65 to provide renewable energy related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependents Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum repayment rate from 35% to 50%. Increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000 in 2021, along with an additional credit of $600 for children under 6, which will be fully refunded by the CTC. It is worth mentioning that the measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the tax credit policy for first-time homebuyers with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.</p><p>5) Restoring rates and exemptions for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After the Trump tax reform in 2017, the exemption for estate and gift taxes for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, with the tax rate still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the exemption will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40 percent to 45 percent.</p><p>6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts, such as 401 (k) s and IRAs, by providing refundable tax credits in place of traditional deductions; Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expand the premium tax credit under the Affordable Care Act; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credits for low-income earners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Adjustment of corporate tax system: tax burden increases, but manufacturing industry is encouraged to return</p><p>1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.</p><p>2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax – businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.</p><p>3) Doubling the Global Intangible Low Tax Income rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. Proposed country-by-country assessment of GILTI in overseas subsidiaries, removing the provision that treated GILTI of less than 10% of qualified corporate asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.</p><p>Prior to the 2017 tax reform, the U.S. generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and U.S. companies could apply to defer taxation on the active business earnings of overseas subsidiaries until the earnings were repatriated to the U.S. as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the earnings from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies, which would not be taxed even if they were repatriated (but still taxed on the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). Concerned that completely exempting multinational corporations from overseas income could exacerbate their practice of transferring profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, the US Congress has created a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on global low-tax income from intangible assets to discourage profit transfers. GILTI refers to income generated from intangible assets such as patents, trademarks and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly mobile, and the tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Establish manufacturing tax credits; Expand and make the tax credits in new markets permanent; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including tax credits for carbon capture, use and storage and tax credits for residential energy efficiency, and restore the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Electric Vehicle Tax Credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.</p><p>5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: a 10% surtax on those businesses that \"move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market\". Provide a preferential 10% \"Made in America\" tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have been closed or are about to be closed, reorganize facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wage scale.</p><p>(4) The Impact of Biden's Tax Increase on the US Economy</p><p>The impact of tax increases on the economy is more complicated, and we mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increase on the US economy.<b>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth over the next decade, reducing GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% over the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax hikes could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax hikes would reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).</b>In addition, the Tax Foundation expects that the tax increase will reduce wages and lose jobs, narrowing the income gap but reducing the overall residents' after-tax income.</p><p>Estimates of the Tax Foundation</p><p>1) Impact of fiscal revenue: The Biden tax plan will raise about $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, the capital stock by 3.75%, the long-term average wage level by 1.15%, and the loss of 542,000 jobs. 3) Impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will result in a reduction in after-tax income of around 7.7% for the richest 1% of taxpayers by 2030, and an average decline of 1.9% for all taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. TaxPolicy Center</p><p>1) Economic impact: The GDP of the United States will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next decade, and the impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (about 8% of total revenue in those 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. The tax program's impact on federal revenue will turn positive by 2040, and its positive effects will gradually increase in subsequent years in 2040.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3. Key time point: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?</p><p>At present, Biden's team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time nodes worth paying attention to:</p><p><b>The first key point in time: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden first proposed the \"American Relief Plan\" on January 14 this year, he made it clear: \"Next month, in my first joint session of Congress, I will present my 'Recovery Plan to Build Back for a Better Future' [5].\" Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the pandemic is the number one priority. On February 11, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said, \"We will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 relief bill.\" Because the American Relief Plan encountered resistance in Congress and was not officially implemented until March 14, Biden has yet to attend the joint session of Congress, and the reconstruction plan has not been formally proposed.</p><p>When is the joint session of Congress convened? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesman Psaki said, \"There is no time set yet…We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will keep in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when.\" Historically, the latest time for a president to attend a joint session of Congress and deliver a \"speech to a joint session of Congress\" is February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, [6] when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget proposal to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan can pass the committees under the House and Senate in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale and specific project details of the reconstruction plan will be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>Second key point in time: October.</b></p><p>The implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. Democrats currently control the House and can easily pass bills in the House. But the Democrats have only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republicans, and cannot bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes are needed). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. One is to secure the support of at least 10 more Republican senators on the premise of guaranteeing the agreement of all Democratic senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only requires 51 votes to pass the Senate.</p><p>\"We hear that the so-called infrastructure bill that could be introduced in the coming months could actually be a Trojan horse hiding big tax hikes and other jobs-damaging left-wing policies,\" Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday.</p><p>For Biden's reconstruction plan to come to fruition, the biggest possibility is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once in a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process once in each fiscal year, but the bill generally covers not only one area, but basically covers all three areas. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once in a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the \"quota\" of fiscal year 2021. If you want to start the budget reconciliation process again, you can only wait until fiscal year 2022. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can start the \"budget reconciliation process\" again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to pass the reconstruction plan bill quickly. For example, House Speaker Pelosi wants Congress to act quickly to develop a transformative infrastructure plan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>IV Appendix: Details of Biden's Reconstruction Plan</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA\"> 一瑜中的</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff7dc206228e5f0b17e2120c141f32db","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170764582","content_text":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、具体措施、影响）去理解拜登的基建和加税，以期对未来正式的重建计划的措施和影响进行大致摸底。拜登基建：怎么建？一、美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？非常有必要。首先，基础设施状况堪忧。据ASCE最新评估，美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。据《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名居全球第13位，2002年时则居第5位。其次，存在大规模投资缺口。未来十年基建总投资缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元。最后，基建支出力度远低于主要经济体，欧洲基建支出相当于GDP的5％，中国基建支出约占GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％。美国主要依赖地方和州政府进行基建投资，但地方政府逐渐「力不能及」。随着基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，新增投资额自21世纪初以来一直下降。二、有无联邦政府主导基建投资的先例？从历史比较看，拜登基建是上世纪来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来，美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程类支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登基建投资的规模大约1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。三、拜登基建的具体措施有哪些？拜登竞选网站上提出的计划规模为2 万亿美元，为期10年，占2019年GDP的9.3%；其中基建投资1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%。计划有三个重点：1）内容十分广泛。涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域。2）促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。3）把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。需注意的是，计划中各领域的投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。四、拜登基建对美国经济有何影响？1）对GDP的影响：10年里，每年基建支出约1300亿，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（马里兰大学和CBO的评估），每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美银估计，拜登基建计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」。拜登加税：怎么加？一、拜登加税基本是确定的。三大理由：1）加税是拜登竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。2）在拜登竞选网站上明确写到， 1.3万亿基建投资将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集。3）财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（拜登重建计划）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。二、加税有先例可寻。1950年代以来，美国所得税率整体呈下降趋势，减税多，加税少。主要的加税有三次，一是1968-1970年为应对越战开支而征收的「越战附加税」。二是1990年老布什为应对赤字增长而加税。三是1993年克林顿加税，这也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税，其目的也是为了削减财政赤字。三、富人税负增加，中下阶层减负；企业税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流。拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。一方面，提高富裕群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，另一方面，重新上调企业所得税率，对其他一些企业税进行调整。四、拜登加税对美国经济有何影响？就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占10年总收入的8%）。此外税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。两个关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「在我下个月第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’。」拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，目前还没有确定时间。历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，所以我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。第一，10月以后民主党可再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，民主党高层的积极表态表明其会尽可能快地推动重建计划进入国会表决或者在新财年伊始就推动重建计划再走预算和解程序。风险提示：民主党内部就重建计划产生分歧。报告目录报告正文在1.9万亿美国救济计划落地后，关于拜登重建计划（Build Back Better Recovery Plan，因其大部分措施与基建相关，国内外相关报道和报告也将之称为「拜登基建计划」）的讨论热度迅速升温。据彭博3月22日的报道，近期重建计划方案将递交给拜登，且该计划还包含了加税方案。白宫新闻秘书普萨基也在22日表示，「时间快了，所以他本周将与他的团队讨论有哪些选择，规模和范围。」根据拜登在提出救济计划时的表态，他将在第一次出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」时，向国会议员推介他的重建计划，所以重建计划或将在4月正式「亮相」。由于拜登的重建计划目前尚未公布，本篇报告就以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本来分析。一、拜登基建：怎么「建」？关于拜登基建，我们主要弄清楚四个问题即可。第一，美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？第二，有没有美国政府主导基建大投资的历史经验？如果有，从历史比较，拜登基建投资规模如何？第三，基建计划的具体领域和措施，到底如何建？第四，基建计划对美国经济的影响如何？（一）美国目前有必要大兴基建吗？美国目前的基础设施状况堪忧，非常有必要进行大规模投资。美国大部分的基础设施系统建成于1960年代，许多设施已经达到了最大使用期限，接近「报废」的关头。一、基础设施状况堪忧，综合评定等级较低。美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2017年对美国基础设施的评定等级为「D+」（等级为A-F），2021年的评定等级升至「C-」。虽然评级有所好转，但也表明美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。从全球比较看，近二十年来美国基础设施领域的评级也在不断下降。根据世界经济论坛的《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名位居全球第13位，而2002年时则位居5位，17年里下降了8个名次。二、美国目前存在大规模基建投资缺口，如果不弥补，会对经济和社会发展造成巨大负面影响。有两个评估来源：1）美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2021年报告认为，未来十年美国基建投资总缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元，如果不弥补，到2039年美国将损失10万亿GDP，损失2.4万亿出口。2）麦肯锡2016年的研究认为，从2017年至2030年，每年需要1500亿美元的基础设施投资，才能跟上美国经济对基础设施的需求。三、美国基建支出力度远低于世界主要经济体，并且主要依赖于州和地方政府。欧洲国家在建设和维护基础设施上的支出相当于GDP的5％，中国的基础设施支出平均约占其GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％[1]。此外，与多数其他工业化国家的不同之处在于，美国主要依赖地方和州政府的支出来满足其基础设施的需求。大多数欧洲国家或地区在国家层面上为大部分基础设施建设提供资金，但2017年美国公共基础设施资金中只有25％来自联邦政府，这个数字远低于1977年38％的峰值，表明联邦政府在公共基建上承担的支出责任越来越少。随着美国基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，也使得基建的新增投资额从2000年代初以来一直下降。（二）历史上联邦政府进行过基建大投资吗？上世纪以来，美国经历过四次联邦政府主导的大规模基建投资，从历史比较看，拜登基建计划是上世纪以来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程相关支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，其中基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，约占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登竞选网站上公布的基建类支出大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。1、罗斯福新政大萧条后，为了刺激就业复苏，1933年罗斯福签署《国家工业复兴法》，他认为通过广泛的的公共工程计划能直接带来就业机会。通过设立联邦经济救济署、公共工程管理局（PWA）、公共事业振兴署（WPA）等机构为美国带来了逾千万的就业。到二战前夕，联邦政府工程费用和直接救济费用支出高达180亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的31%，占1941年美国GDP比重的14%。如果从广义支出看，罗斯福新政的联邦支出总额为417亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的73%，占1941年美国GDP比重的32%。大规模公共工程支出也取得了显著成果：公共工程方面，WPA的小型项目包括了7.8万座桥梁和高架桥、57.2万英里乡村公路；而PWA在建立的前六年里即完成了约1.14个街道和公路项目，总长达3.7万英里[2]。到二战前夕，美国一共修建了近1000座飞机场、12000多个运动场、800多座校舍与医院。就业方面，仅WPA就在1935-1943年为大约八百万人提供了工作机会。2、艾森豪威尔：州际高速公路1950年代，艾森豪威尔主张修建美国州际高速公路系统。1956年，他签署了《联邦援助公路法》，获得了250亿美元的授权，用于在十年内建造4.1万英里的州际高速公路，这笔费用将由存入联邦公路信托基金的汽油税等税收收入支付，联邦政府提供约90%的总支出，其余10%由各州支付。修建州际高速公路的耗资约占1956年美国GDP的5.6%。3、克林顿：「信息高速公路计划」1992年，美国总统候选人克林顿在竞选时提出，要建设信息高速公路。1993年克林顿上台后，正式实施「信息高速公路计划」。计划投资额为4000亿美元，为期20年，逐步将电信光缆铺设到所有家庭用户。1994年，美国政府提出建设全球信息基础设施的倡议，旨在通过卫星通讯和电信光缆连通全球信息网络，形成信息共享的竞争机制[3]。信息高速公路计划总投资额占1993年美国GDP的5.8%。4、奥巴马：ARRA财政刺激法案金融危机后，奥巴马在2009年2月签署财政刺激法案《美国复苏和再投资法案（ARRA）》，初始总规模为7870亿美元，2015年国会预算办公室预计总支出大约为8400亿美元，其中大约有1200亿用于基建项目相关支出，包括：480亿用于运输和公共交通项目，310亿用于联邦建筑现代化改造，310亿用于学校设施和科学设施现代化改造，60亿用于水利项目，50亿用于房屋气候改造项目。ARRA法案的基建类支出规模占2009年GDP比重仅为0.8%。（三）拜登基建计划的具体措施？1、基建计划的三个重点拜登竞选网站上提出的「建设现代、可持续的基础设施和公平、清洁的能源未来」计划，计划跨度为期10年，总规模为 2 万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的9.3%；如果仅看基建类支出，大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%。竞选网站上公布的计划有两个特点：第一，内容十分广泛。计划不仅仅局限于传统的基础设施和清洁能源投资，还包括智慧城市和宽带等新基建，汽车工业发展，建筑改造和保障性住房建设，可持续农业，制造业振兴和中小企业发展，社区平等和发展等多个领域。第二，促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。可以说，增加就业和中产阶级重建是拜登大兴基建的一大主要目的。在拜登的设想里，计划可以大幅创造新的就业岗位，比如：基建领域的投资将创造数百万个就业机会，汽车工业领域将创造100万个就业机会，电力领域的投资将创造数百万个就业岗位，建筑和住房领域投资将创造100万个高薪岗位，农业保护领域将创造25万个工作岗位等。第三，把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁，与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。这一说法在计划中多次被提及，比如：确保鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂；投资电池技术但要确保电池生产在国内进行等等。此外，值得说明的是，基建计划中各个领域的具体投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。由于该计划简介十分「粗糙」，并没有十分细致的支出计划，只在少数项目上提出了投资额，比如：在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购（具体采购计划没有说明）；1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑；执政第一年投入500亿美元修复高速公路、公路和桥梁；投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施，提供600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入；10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目；400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金用于资助重大基建项目等等。计划简介中明确提及投资额度的，零零散散加总，仅有8000多亿美元。2、不仅是基建，计划覆盖八大领域整体来看，拜登的基建计划不仅仅是局限在「基建领域」，覆盖面非常广泛，涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域（下文是简介，详情参见附录）。第一，构建现代化的基建设施。1）道路修复和建设。执政第一年投入500亿美元用于修复高速公路、道路和桥梁，对边远地区进行交通投资等。2）第二次铁路革命。大力投资高铁，完善客运和货运铁路体系，推动铁路系统电气化，减少柴油排放。3）大力发展公共交通。到2030年，在超过10万人口的城市构建高质量的公共交通系统。在10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目。4）改进机场。为机场改善计划提供双倍资金，为主要机场改造项目提供竞争性赠款，全面实施下一代航空技术系统等。5）大力投资货运基础设施，包括内河航道、货运走廊、货运铁路、中转设施和港口。把BUILD和INFRA交通基建赠款项目赠款从每年18亿提高至35亿；每年为陆军工程兵团增加25亿资金，推动内陆水道的船闸现代化；支持港口基础设施。6）水利基础设施建设。更换老化管道，把联邦对清洁饮用水和水基础设施的投资增加一倍，监测供水系统中铅和其他污染物，追究污染企业的责任。投资水技术研发，号召私人部门创新。7）新基建项目：智能城市建设。每年用10亿美元帮助5个城市试行新的规划战略和智慧城市技术。投资宽带网络。投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施， 600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入，增加宽带提供商的参与数量等。8）建立转型项目基金。设立一个400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金，为庞大复杂的基建项目提供援助。第二，使美国汽车业在本世纪领先全球，加快向低碳和无碳汽车过渡。1）需求方面：恢复电动汽车全额税收抵免，利用联邦采购增加清洁汽车的需求，加速300万辆政府系统汽车的升级换代。设定到2030年所有美国制造的新巴士都实现零排放的目标，将全国50万辆校车转化为零排放汽车。2）鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂。3）五年内在电池和储能技术方面投资50亿美元，同时确保电池生产在国内进行。4）建立一个由50万个公共充电网点组成的全国充电系统，每年额外提供10亿美元资金以确保充电站由经过认证的技术人员安装。5）召集美国能源和交通部协调特别示范项目，向愿意试行新型充电基础设施的市镇和县提供赠款。6）制定燃油经济性标准，减少空气污染。第三，清洁电力投资：2035年实现无碳发电。1）发展清洁电力，到2035年实现无碳发电。2）大力发展电网，推动市场改革，扩大区域电力市场。3）为公用事业和电网运营商建立能源效率和清洁电力标准（ EECES ）；4）升级输电线路以支持更大的区域电力市场，推进大规模储能示范项目。5）将加倍提高对捕获碳、永久封存和利用捕获碳的技术的研究投资和税收优惠。第四，建筑改造，提高建筑能效。1）推动学校现代化。投资1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑，升级全国各地的儿童保育和早期学习设施。2）建筑节能改造。在4年内升级400万栋商业建筑，对200万户家庭进行房屋节能改造。推动建筑行业电气化，加大对低收入房屋节能改造项目和电热泵等关键技术的投资；建造净零碳联邦建筑等。3）2035年美国建筑存量碳足迹减少一半。4）推动建设150万套公共住房，向低收入社区注入更多资金以促进经济适用房的建设和小企业的发展。第五，对清洁能源创新进行历史性投资。1）在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购，其中一个重点是购买电池和电动汽车等关键的清洁能源投入。2）未来4年内专注于清洁能源、清洁交通、清洁工业流程和清洁材料等战略研究领域。3）加强和建设美国关键的清洁能源供应链，解决对稀土矿物的依赖等问题，加快供应链弹性方面的创新。4）大力投资国家实验室、高性能计算能力设施以及其他关键基础设施。第六，投资于可持续农业和环境养护。1）通过民间气候组织号召和动员新一代美国人投入到保护环境和应对气候变化的工作中。2）进行前期投资，以清理以往资源开采对环境造成的破坏和影响。3）维护美国的农场和牧场。为农民向新设备和新方法过渡提供低成本资金，资助精密农业和新作物的研究开发，建立自愿碳农业市场；追求亲工人和亲家庭的农民贸易政策；加强粮食供应的安全性和恢复能力；确保中小型农场的竞争公平等。第七，社区平等和发展。1）每年提供50亿美元，扩大新市场税收抵免并使该计划永久化；2）为社区发展金融机构基金提供双倍资金，支持低收入地区的金融机构。3）设立100亿美元的城市振兴基金，在陷入困境的城市开展创造性的振兴项目。4）资助贫困地区的锚定机构（指医院、学院和大学以及政府行政机构等）。5）全面实施「10-20-30计划（在所有联邦项目中，将10%的资金分配给过去30年有20%或以上的人口生活在贫困线以下的县）」。第八，振兴全国的制造业和中小企业。1）振兴制造业。将制造业扩展伙伴项目的资金提高四倍，为小型制造商在全球竞争中提供技术支持；在每个州发展低碳制造业；利用税收抵免和补贴帮助企业升级设备和流程、投资扩建或新建工厂、部署低碳技术；为更具竞争力或低碳的制造业提供资金等。2）推动中小企业发展。把国家小企业信贷倡议计划延长到2025年，联邦拨款增加至30亿美元；向各州提供50亿美元资金，制定鼓励小企业创业的政策，比如支持从公立大学向私营部门转让技术。（四）拜登基建对美国经济的影响？基建类支出对经济的影响如何评估？可以借鉴过往美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果：1）2014年马里兰大学的一项研究表明，公共交通基础设施投资每花费1美元，就会使得GDP增长增加约3美元，在经济衰退期间产生的影响更大。2）根据2014年芝加哥大学的报告，一项830亿美元的基础设施投资计划——大约相当于国内生产总值的0.6%——将在头三年创造170万个就业机会。3）根据全球咨询公司麦肯锡的估计，美国基础设施支出每增加1个百分点的GDP，将为经济增加150万个就业机会。4）经济政策研究所估计，础设施投资的回报率很高。对数十项基础设施研究进行回顾，每支出100美元……从长期来看，将使私营部门的产出分别提高13美元（中位数）和17美元（平均值）。5）据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）对奥巴马ARRA法案的评估，基建类的产出乘数在0.4-2.2之间。可借鉴美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果，从整体上大概估算拜登基建计划对美国经济和就业的影响。1）对GDP的影响：拜登基建计划中，确定的基建类支出大约是1.3万亿美元，投资周期10年，平均每年的支出约为1300亿，约占2019年GDP比重的0.6%，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（结合马里兰大学和CBO估计的产出乘数），未来十年，每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：根据芝加哥大学的就业影响估计，1.3万亿的基建类支出未来十年将每年创造逾200万个工作岗位。根据麦肯锡的评估结果估计，未来十年将带动约1000万的就业。拜登团队在计划简介中的就业影响估计是带动超1000万个就业。综合来看，拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美国银行在一份报告中估计，拜登的2万亿美元的基础设施计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」，并且美国GDP增长每增加1％，将带来标准普尔500公司收益的3％到4％左右的增长[4]。二、拜登加税：怎么加？同样的，我们从四个问题来理解拜登加税。第一，拜登是不是确定要加税，加税的目的是什么？第二，加税在美国历史上有先例吗？第三，拜登打算怎么加税？第四，加税对美国经济有何影响？（一）拜登确定要加税？目的何在？拜登是否要加税？加税应该是肯定的。第一，拜登在竞选时曾明确提出加税计划，这是其竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。第二，在拜登的竞选网站上写到，基础设施领域多达1.3万亿美元的投资，将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集资金。第三，财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（指拜登的重建计划法案）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。拜登加税的三个目的：一是为重建计划筹集资金，二是兑现竞选承诺，三是通过税制调整以促进税收公平，通过二次分配来调节贫富差距。从税制调整中可以很明显地看出，富人和高收入阶层、企业的税负压力增大，而中低收入者的税收抵免则明显扩大。（二）加税有先例可寻吗？在1950年以前，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率均呈逐渐上升趋势，这一时期，加税的主要原因是为战争筹资，在一战和二战期间，个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率大幅上升。从1950年代以来，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率整体呈逐渐下降趋势，减税时期多，加税时期极少。1950年以来，主要的减税有五次： 1963年肯尼迪减税、1979年卡特减税、1980年代里根减税、2001年小布什减税、2017年特朗普减税。而1950年以来的加税，最明显的有三次。第一次是1960年代后期，加税的主要原因还是战争因素，从1968年-1970年，为了应对越南战争的开支，美国征收了「越战附加税」，1970年以后取消。第二次是1990年老布什为了应对国防和医疗等社会公共开支大幅上升带来赤字增加，在1990年通过《1990年监察预算调解法案》，将个人所得税最高边际税率从28%提高至31%。第三次是1993年克林顿加税，这一次也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税。为了削减财政赤字，克林顿在1993年提出增税计划，将个人所得税最高边际税率从31%提高至39.6%，将企业所得税最高边际税率从34%提高至35%。值得注意的是，2012年个人所得税最高边际税率从35%上升至39.6%并非是加税导致，而是小布什减税期限已满，税率自动回到减税前的水平。（三）拜登打算如何加税？拜登加税主要是在两个方面，一是高收入群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，二是重新上调企业所得税率，对一些企业税进行调整。从下述条款的具体细则中可以看出，拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。1、个体税制调整：富人税负增加，中下阶层减负1）对年收入超过40万美元的人征收12.4%的社会保障工资税（Social Security payroll tax），由雇主和雇员平分。在先行的税法下，年收入高于13.77万的个人不需要支付社会保障工资税。2）将应税收入超过40万美元的最高个人所得税税率从现行法律规定的37%上调至39.6%；对于年收入超过40万美元的群体，即便有分项扣除的税收优惠，其个人所得税率也不得低于28%；恢复对应税收入超过40万美元的项目扣除额的「皮斯限制」；对应税收入超过40万美元的群体，逐步取消符合资格的业务收入扣除额。3）按39.6%的普通所得税税率对100万美元以上的长期资本利得和合格股息收入征税，消除资本利得税的累进性。4）税收抵免：扩大65岁以上无子女员工的劳动所得税抵免，为个人提供可再生能源相关的税收抵免；将儿童和受扶养人税收抵免(CDCTC)从最高3000美元扩大到8000美元(多个受扶养人为16000美元)，并将最高偿还率从35%提高到50%。在2021年，将17岁及以下儿童的儿童税收抵免(CTC)从最高2000美元提高到3000美元，同时为6岁以下儿童提供600美元的额外抵免，CTC将全额退还。值得一提的是，关于CTC的措施已在1.9万亿救济计划中实施；重建首次购房者的税收抵免政策，为首次购房者提供1.5万美元的税收抵免。5）将遗产税和赠与税的税率和免税额恢复到2009年的水平。2017年特朗普税改后，将2018-2025年的遗产和赠与税的免税额从每人500万提高至1000万，税率仍然定在40%。如果回到2009年水平，免税额将从现在的1000万降至350万，税率则从40%提高至45%。6）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：通过提供可退还的税收抵免来取代传统的扣除项目，以平衡传统退休账户(如401(k)和个人退休账户)的税收优惠；取消房地产税的某些规定；扩大《平价医疗法案》的保费税收抵免；创建可退还的租户税收抵免并提供每年不超过50亿美元的抵免额度，旨在将租金和水电费保持在租户月收入的30%以下；加大对低收入者住房税收抵免的额度。2、企业税制调整：税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流1）将企业所得税税率从21%提高到28%。2）对账面利润超过1亿美元的公司征收最低税。最低税是一种替代税——企业将支付常规企业所得税或15%最低税中的更高者，仍然允许净经营亏损(NOL)和外国税收抵免。3）将美国公司海外子公司的全球无形资产低税收收入(Global Intangible Low Tax Income)税率从10.5%提高一倍至21%。提议对海外子公司的GILTI进行分国家评估，取消将低于合格企业资产投资(QBAI) 10%的GILTI视为回报豁免的条款。在2017年税改前，美国一般对其公司和居民的全球收入征税，美国公司可以申请推迟对海外子公司的活跃业务收益征税，直到收益作为股息汇回美国。在税改之后，美国豁免了美国公司海外子公司活跃业务的收益，即使这些收益被汇回国内也不会被征税(但仍对外国子公司的被动投资收入征税)。美国国会担心将跨国公司的海外收入完全豁免，可能会加剧其将利润转移到海外低税收司法管辖区的做法，因此对全球无形资产低税收收入制定了10.5%的最低税率，以阻止利润转移。GILTI是指无形资产(如专利、商标和版权)带来的收入。无形资产具有高度的可移动性，该税率试图阻止美国公司将无形资产转移到海外。4）税收抵免：建立制造业税收抵免；扩大新市场的税收抵免并使之永久化；为采用工作场所退休储蓄计划的小企业提供税收抵免；扩大与可再生能源相关的税收抵免，包括碳捕获、使用和储存的税收抵免以及住宅能效的税收抵免，并恢复能源投资税收抵免(ITC)和电动汽车税收抵免，结束对化石燃料的税收补贴。5）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：对那些「为了向美国市场销售产品或提供服务而将制造业和服务业工作岗位转移到国外」的企业征收10%的附加税。为恢复生产、振兴已关闭或即将关闭的设施、重组设施以促进制造业就业或扩大制造业工资规模的活动，提供优先的10%的「美国制造」税收抵免。（四）拜登加税对美国经济的影响加税对经济的影响较为复杂，主要借鉴海外智库的评估来大致了解拜登加税对美国经济的影响。就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%）。此外，税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。1、税务基金会（Tax Foundation）的估计1）财政收入的影响：拜登税收计划将在未来10年筹集约2.8万亿美元。2）经济的影响：在未来十年，使GDP总共减少1.62%，GNP总共下降1.83%，使资本存量减少3.75%，使长期平均工资水平下降1.15%，损失54.2万个工作岗位。3）收入分配的影响：拜登的税收计划到2030年将导致最富有的1%纳税人的税后收入减少7.7%左右，所有纳税人的税后收入平均下降1.9%。2、税收政策中心（TaxPolicy Center）1）经济影响：使未来十年美国GDP总共下降3.4%，对GDP的影响将在2040年转正，在2040年以后的年份，正向影响将逐渐增大。2）收入影响：将使2021年至2030年的美国联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%），2031年至2040年减少900亿美元。到2040年，税收计划对联邦收入的影响将转正，其正效应在2040年的随后年份将逐渐增加。三、关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？目前，拜登团队还没有公布正式的计划方案和投资细则，后续要追踪拜登的重建计划，有两个关键的时间节点值得关注：第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日首次提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「下个月，在我第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’[5]。」正常情况下，拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，「目前还没有确定时间…我们当然仍有兴趣承诺进行一次联合会议。我们会与他们保持联系，但我不知道具体的时间。」历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议[6]，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，因此我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。拜登的重建计划的推出实施，需要经过美国国会的同意。目前民主党掌控众议院，可以在众议院轻松通过法案。但是民主党在参议院只是略占优势，仅比共和党多1票的投票权，无法绕过参议院的「阻挠议事」（需要60票）。拜登的重建计划要想在参议院获得通过，只有两个办法。一是在保证所有民主党参议员同意的前提下，至少再争取10位共和党参议员的支持。二是再次启用预算和解程序，和1.9万亿美国救济计划走的国会流程一致，只需要51票即可通过参议院。就目前共和党参议院高层的表态来看，第一种办法的可行性非常低，参议院共和党领导麦康奈尔本周一表示：「我们听说，未来几个月可能会提出所谓的基础设施法案，实际上可能是暗藏大幅加税和其他有损就业的左翼政策的特洛伊木马。」拜登的重建计划要想落地，最大的可能是启动预算和解程序。美国财政年度是每年10月至次年9月，预算和解程序一个财年一般只能使用一次（本来收入、支出和赤字三个领域每财年各有一次启动预算和解程序的机会，但是法案一般不只涉及一个领域，基本上三个领域都会覆盖，历史经验看，预算和解程序也是一个财年最多一次），今年1.9万亿美国救济计划已经使用过2021财年的「额度」，若要再次启用预算和解程序，只能等到2022财年开始。10月份是第二个关键的时间点，第一，到10月份，民主党可以再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，从民主党议员的表态来看，他们希望能快速通过重建计划法案，比如众议院议长佩洛西希望国会快速采取行动制定变革性的基建计划。四附录：拜登重建计划细则内容","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351508776,"gmtCreate":1616600816595,"gmtModify":1704796337312,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351508776","repostId":"1100080179","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100080179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616593664,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100080179?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 21:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Judgment Day 2021? Why not be bullish on the stock market and commodity supercycle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100080179","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"美国复工对商品，或部分周期股，比如化工实际是利空。","content":"<p>Author: Yuwei Yuan</p><p>Last year, the three bulls of stocks, bonds and commodities driven by the release of water by global central banks led most investors at home and abroad to be overly optimistic about 2021.</p><p>However, in terms of macro fundamentals, there is actually no fundamental support for the stock market in 2020 (I am not against individual industries). Last year's bull market was actually the background of the financial crisis and economic crisis induced by the epidemic. The central bank put options-in order to cut off the risk transmission chain in the economic crisis, the central bank rescued the market and suppressed the downward fluctuation of assets. Then, the volatility of an economy with frail domestic demand that was artificially suppressed last year — like Linghu Chong's internal illness suppressed by external forces by a group of quacks — would theoretically spread backward unless the economy would flourish quickly (which is highly unrealistic).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873e66b2fb1140bf4542722170c1b634\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d600bd87df2e4cf7aae3b231feea75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why Bearish Emerging Markets, Especially Turkey, Latin American Stocks and Exchange Double Kill</b></p><p>U.S. bond yields are the anchor of global asset pricing.</p><p>No matter how much you deny the role of external forces, America's global financial influence is currently unmatched. In addition, the generalized value investment after 2016, the rise of Mao Index, is actually a process of institutionalization, long-term, passivity and fundamentally driven investment style after A shares are opened to foreign investment.</p><p><b>Personally, I think that when the internal assets are flourishing, full of bubbles, and overvalued (Wind All A-ex Bank Petrochemical PE reaches 41 times), the external factors must influence more than the internal factors</b>Assess risks in all aspects from a global macro perspective. Any outside wind and grass can be the straw that overwhelms the camel.</p><p>The flood of US dollars and the 0/negative interest rate in developed countries promoted the global asset bubble last year. Then, when the interest rate of US bonds rose, it was actually the assessment that the \"asset managers\" of each country had to face a certain hurdle rate to collect performance fees-only when the tide subsided did we know who didn't swim. Previously, we chose Turkey, which has always had a tradition of debt crisis in history, and Latin America as the short selling target. Before the recent plunge, they all faced the danger of the deterioration of the epidemic or domestic hyperinflation. As an oil-producing country, Brazil even withdrew, fearing that oil prices would worsen inflation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">Petrobras</a>CEO, the inflation risk can be seen.</p><p>India and Russia also meet these two criteria, but because:</p><p>The caste system of the former simply ignores the life and death of the \"people\" at the bottom, and has no moral and economic baggage. For them, the epidemic is like an internal survival of the fittest, so it is difficult to observe fluctuations from assets;</p><p>While the latter, benefiting from rising oil and preparing for rainy days in previous years, has high gold reserves</p><p>— — So these two short-selling logics are flawed.</p><p>To hedge EM risk, we chose long East Asia/short Turkey and Latin America. Like Druckenmiller's view, we are relatively bullish on East Asia in EM from last year-thanks to pandemic control, especially in technology, new energy is at the advantage. But what he said about buying East Asia/empty America, I think it is still too radical.</p><p>We said in 18 that the United States has always been short and long on the dollar, cutting EM leeks. At the end of last year, when the whole world was bearish on the dollar, when the dollar did not fall, it was time for the crowded bears to reflect. That's one of the reasons why we're not so bearish on the dollar and bearish on the EM this year. It is dangerous to be blindly bearish on the US dollar for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/579cf18d938f1606e8bbe2e91f397a98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why not be bullish on the commodity supercycle</b></p><p>Commodity Super Cycle? This logic is ridiculous.</p><p>Historical commodity supercycles have all been accompanied by the prosperity of human economies. Recently, due to China's entry into WTO and global integration, it became the world's factory, superimposing China's real estate economy-driven consumption upgrade and wealth effect.</p><p>While<b>There are many sophisticated conditions or contingencies in China's push for the last 2000-2007 super commodity cycle</b>：</p><p><ol><li>Culture: Work hard without complaint, work hard to get rich, show off wealth, the bottom class has strong ability to endure the gap between the rich and the poor</p><p></li><li>capital construction</p><p></li><li>Efficient government</p><p></li><li>Reflexivity of China's Economy: Real Estate/Inflation/Work Efficiency/Wealth Effect/Consumption</p><p></li><li>Last time, there was the backdrop of the US housing bubble and the simultaneous rise of the BRICS countries</p><p></li></ol>We won't see any region or country that can replicate the Chinese model for at least the next 10-20 years:</p><p>Indians and Africans accept fate, have no desires, no desires, or lazy nature,</p><p>Europe and the United States are also plagued by long-term low growth, deflation and the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and low desire;</p><p>It is simply impossible to replicate the China of 2000-2007.</p><p>Moreover,<b>After 2008, global central banks released water to keep the economy relatively stable, which was actually largely due to commodity deflation. In the absence of emerging countries to replace China, if commodities enter a supercycle, I think it is only possible in the context of global hyperinflation-then war is not far away</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafed14735b6f7bca7e02e39e60ef0ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd9e2823d5e4c1c0ac267dcd41fc486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, this round of commodities rose, mainly due to the rise of oil and copper, but</p><p><ul><li>Oil price increases because of the supply side;</p><p></li><li>Copper, we see that there are suspicions of cross-market price manipulation from virtual to physical to gamma squeeze, US stocks, A shares, copper futures... similar to GME.</p><p></li></ul>The inherent logic of these two varieties cannot complete the leading commodity bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451727453c577f905b52af9a4a4b56b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816b17c9ab75a6ef70e02a258d1697d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why not be optimistic about chemical leaders</b></p><p>Last year, there were many accidental factors driving the domestic commodity bull market:</p><p>The rise of commodities in 2020 is mainly based on the global central bank's release of water x China's resumption of work/Su x orders flowing to China x European home office caused by house purchase and decoration, home appliance demand x strong expectation of resumption of work after vaccine-these factors are highly contingent, short-term and cannot be replicated for a long time; A long-term rise requires substantial improvements in the economy and consumer demand, which we don't see so far.</p><p>Chemical leaders enjoyed low oil prices last year, and petrochemical production capacity in the United States was hit by the epidemic last year. Neither factor existed this year. In particular, the resumption of work in the United States is bad, not bullish, for the domestic chemical industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026025199f3a4dae623db7c47c45afc8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641302e4981a313c34bf19ac25ebc2ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why Hong Kong Stocks Are Risky</b></p><p>After the year, the Hong Kong stock market was actually driven by Hang Seng Technology Stocks, mainly due to the lazy thinking of going south to hold a group. Regaining the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks is wishful thinking of good value investors.</p><p>Then, Hong Kong stocks are actually exposed to four major risks at the same time:</p><p><ul><li>Antitrust</p><p></li><li>Mao Index Linkage</p><p></li><li>Inflation Expectations and US Treasury yields Rise</p><p></li><li>Dollar appreciation</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33d97c677841a52863d8a370d0a9486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, in 2021, regardless of US stocks, A shares and Hong Kong stocks, they are very similar to 2018. However, in view of the strong ability of current senior leaders to correct errors, and they have already warned in advance, and they need to maintain economic and financial stability; 2021, unlikely to fully replicate 2018.</p><p><b>Gamma Squeeze, Retail, SPAC, ARK, Internet Celebrity Fund</b></p><p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will \"come into the stock market,\" driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated that young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. — — From MarketWatch</p><p>As we analyzed last year, ARK's performance last year was largely driven by</p><p>① The prevalence of 0 interest rates and negative interest rates leads to the pursuit of growth stocks and small and medium-cap stocks by funds;</p><p>② The actual epidemic situation = nature's supply-side reform has destroyed the old economy subject to the lockdown of the city-it is a pie in the sky for the technology Internet;</p><p>③ Tesla is highly exposed, but most of Tesla's performance actually comes from the short-squeezing effect, which has a high positive correlation with short-squeezing-Tesla stock has certain financial asset attributes. To some extent, it is very similar to Bitcoin, and it is the result of capital grouping.</p><p>④ Small and medium-cap exposure and low-quality exposure: ARK holds a large number of small and medium-cap stocks and stocks with weak balance sheets. In fact, this is due to the fact that low interest rates catalyze the risk appetite of market participants, which highly overlaps with the preferences of retail investors.</p><p>⑤ AUM expansion + retail tracking → reflexive effect: ARK's outstanding performance this year has led to the continuous acceleration of capital inflow, forming a positive feedback effect-the latter-incoming funds push positions into positive feedback. In addition, due to the transparent announcement of ARK's fund positions, many retail investors have been attracted to follow suit and positive feedback has been strengthened.</p><p>At the beginning of the year, the A-share online celebrity funds actually had the characteristics of ARK. In fact, most of them were passive investments of passive risk premia style factors. They benefited from the big beta released by the central bank, and the alpha content was not high. Moreover, retail investors' chasing online celebrity fund is actually equivalent to retail investors' long gamma on GME options, which has a lot of leverage effect in the short term. In fact, they are not value investments, but against time and intrinsic value, trying to grab huge profits from the future and cash out in the short term.</p><p>ARK is now constantly selling large-cap stocks and buying small-cap stocks for a last ditch. But what we observe is:</p><p><ul><li>ARK's trading volume declined significantly,</p><p></li><li>The call option market has shrunk significantly = retail assets go to gamma, deleverage, and shrink. After Biden issued the subsidy, we did not observe the market-expected entry of the retail army.</p><p></li><li>This week, the yield of U.S. bonds fell, and the first-tier technology stocks rebounded sharply, but the target of gamma squeeze plummeted (ironically, the first-tier leader of A shares-Mao Index is resonating with the United States-junk stocks and second-tier technology stocks)</p><p></li></ul>Last night, both Yellen and Powell talked about the existence of an asset bubble (US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures).</p><p>A financial \"Maling Road\" encirclement and suppression may have the right time, place and people. We are \"clear\" and watch carefully.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c594d0f35d546b7e772525962725ebdb\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb27b96b2dec4cfd8ba23c1c66febb19\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Western legend has it that God will reward good and punish evil on Judgment Day;</p><p>We don't expect 2021 to be a big bear market,</p><p>But 2021 is likely to be the year of a return to the mean at the macro level</p><p>-manifested at various levels:</p><p>Time,</p><p>Territory,</p><p>Supply Chain,</p><p>Valuation,</p><p>Style,</p><p>Humanity,</p><p>Desire,</p><p>Earth gravity...</p><p>\"When the tide subsides, you know who is swimming naked.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c514a790774c86cfa09ba0d39d7de12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Image: visualcapitalist.com</p>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Judgment Day 2021? Why not be bullish on the stock market and commodity supercycle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJudgment Day 2021? Why not be bullish on the stock market and commodity supercycle\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">泷韬全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-24 21:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yuwei Yuan</p><p>Last year, the three bulls of stocks, bonds and commodities driven by the release of water by global central banks led most investors at home and abroad to be overly optimistic about 2021.</p><p>However, in terms of macro fundamentals, there is actually no fundamental support for the stock market in 2020 (I am not against individual industries). Last year's bull market was actually the background of the financial crisis and economic crisis induced by the epidemic. The central bank put options-in order to cut off the risk transmission chain in the economic crisis, the central bank rescued the market and suppressed the downward fluctuation of assets. Then, the volatility of an economy with frail domestic demand that was artificially suppressed last year — like Linghu Chong's internal illness suppressed by external forces by a group of quacks — would theoretically spread backward unless the economy would flourish quickly (which is highly unrealistic).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873e66b2fb1140bf4542722170c1b634\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d600bd87df2e4cf7aae3b231feea75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why Bearish Emerging Markets, Especially Turkey, Latin American Stocks and Exchange Double Kill</b></p><p>U.S. bond yields are the anchor of global asset pricing.</p><p>No matter how much you deny the role of external forces, America's global financial influence is currently unmatched. In addition, the generalized value investment after 2016, the rise of Mao Index, is actually a process of institutionalization, long-term, passivity and fundamentally driven investment style after A shares are opened to foreign investment.</p><p><b>Personally, I think that when the internal assets are flourishing, full of bubbles, and overvalued (Wind All A-ex Bank Petrochemical PE reaches 41 times), the external factors must influence more than the internal factors</b>Assess risks in all aspects from a global macro perspective. Any outside wind and grass can be the straw that overwhelms the camel.</p><p>The flood of US dollars and the 0/negative interest rate in developed countries promoted the global asset bubble last year. Then, when the interest rate of US bonds rose, it was actually the assessment that the \"asset managers\" of each country had to face a certain hurdle rate to collect performance fees-only when the tide subsided did we know who didn't swim. Previously, we chose Turkey, which has always had a tradition of debt crisis in history, and Latin America as the short selling target. Before the recent plunge, they all faced the danger of the deterioration of the epidemic or domestic hyperinflation. As an oil-producing country, Brazil even withdrew, fearing that oil prices would worsen inflation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">Petrobras</a>CEO, the inflation risk can be seen.</p><p>India and Russia also meet these two criteria, but because:</p><p>The caste system of the former simply ignores the life and death of the \"people\" at the bottom, and has no moral and economic baggage. For them, the epidemic is like an internal survival of the fittest, so it is difficult to observe fluctuations from assets;</p><p>While the latter, benefiting from rising oil and preparing for rainy days in previous years, has high gold reserves</p><p>— — So these two short-selling logics are flawed.</p><p>To hedge EM risk, we chose long East Asia/short Turkey and Latin America. Like Druckenmiller's view, we are relatively bullish on East Asia in EM from last year-thanks to pandemic control, especially in technology, new energy is at the advantage. But what he said about buying East Asia/empty America, I think it is still too radical.</p><p>We said in 18 that the United States has always been short and long on the dollar, cutting EM leeks. At the end of last year, when the whole world was bearish on the dollar, when the dollar did not fall, it was time for the crowded bears to reflect. That's one of the reasons why we're not so bearish on the dollar and bearish on the EM this year. It is dangerous to be blindly bearish on the US dollar for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/579cf18d938f1606e8bbe2e91f397a98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why not be bullish on the commodity supercycle</b></p><p>Commodity Super Cycle? This logic is ridiculous.</p><p>Historical commodity supercycles have all been accompanied by the prosperity of human economies. Recently, due to China's entry into WTO and global integration, it became the world's factory, superimposing China's real estate economy-driven consumption upgrade and wealth effect.</p><p>While<b>There are many sophisticated conditions or contingencies in China's push for the last 2000-2007 super commodity cycle</b>：</p><p><ol><li>Culture: Work hard without complaint, work hard to get rich, show off wealth, the bottom class has strong ability to endure the gap between the rich and the poor</p><p></li><li>capital construction</p><p></li><li>Efficient government</p><p></li><li>Reflexivity of China's Economy: Real Estate/Inflation/Work Efficiency/Wealth Effect/Consumption</p><p></li><li>Last time, there was the backdrop of the US housing bubble and the simultaneous rise of the BRICS countries</p><p></li></ol>We won't see any region or country that can replicate the Chinese model for at least the next 10-20 years:</p><p>Indians and Africans accept fate, have no desires, no desires, or lazy nature,</p><p>Europe and the United States are also plagued by long-term low growth, deflation and the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and low desire;</p><p>It is simply impossible to replicate the China of 2000-2007.</p><p>Moreover,<b>After 2008, global central banks released water to keep the economy relatively stable, which was actually largely due to commodity deflation. In the absence of emerging countries to replace China, if commodities enter a supercycle, I think it is only possible in the context of global hyperinflation-then war is not far away</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafed14735b6f7bca7e02e39e60ef0ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd9e2823d5e4c1c0ac267dcd41fc486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, this round of commodities rose, mainly due to the rise of oil and copper, but</p><p><ul><li>Oil price increases because of the supply side;</p><p></li><li>Copper, we see that there are suspicions of cross-market price manipulation from virtual to physical to gamma squeeze, US stocks, A shares, copper futures... similar to GME.</p><p></li></ul>The inherent logic of these two varieties cannot complete the leading commodity bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451727453c577f905b52af9a4a4b56b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816b17c9ab75a6ef70e02a258d1697d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why not be optimistic about chemical leaders</b></p><p>Last year, there were many accidental factors driving the domestic commodity bull market:</p><p>The rise of commodities in 2020 is mainly based on the global central bank's release of water x China's resumption of work/Su x orders flowing to China x European home office caused by house purchase and decoration, home appliance demand x strong expectation of resumption of work after vaccine-these factors are highly contingent, short-term and cannot be replicated for a long time; A long-term rise requires substantial improvements in the economy and consumer demand, which we don't see so far.</p><p>Chemical leaders enjoyed low oil prices last year, and petrochemical production capacity in the United States was hit by the epidemic last year. Neither factor existed this year. In particular, the resumption of work in the United States is bad, not bullish, for the domestic chemical industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026025199f3a4dae623db7c47c45afc8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641302e4981a313c34bf19ac25ebc2ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why Hong Kong Stocks Are Risky</b></p><p>After the year, the Hong Kong stock market was actually driven by Hang Seng Technology Stocks, mainly due to the lazy thinking of going south to hold a group. Regaining the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks is wishful thinking of good value investors.</p><p>Then, Hong Kong stocks are actually exposed to four major risks at the same time:</p><p><ul><li>Antitrust</p><p></li><li>Mao Index Linkage</p><p></li><li>Inflation Expectations and US Treasury yields Rise</p><p></li><li>Dollar appreciation</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33d97c677841a52863d8a370d0a9486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, in 2021, regardless of US stocks, A shares and Hong Kong stocks, they are very similar to 2018. However, in view of the strong ability of current senior leaders to correct errors, and they have already warned in advance, and they need to maintain economic and financial stability; 2021, unlikely to fully replicate 2018.</p><p><b>Gamma Squeeze, Retail, SPAC, ARK, Internet Celebrity Fund</b></p><p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will \"come into the stock market,\" driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated that young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. — — From MarketWatch</p><p>As we analyzed last year, ARK's performance last year was largely driven by</p><p>① The prevalence of 0 interest rates and negative interest rates leads to the pursuit of growth stocks and small and medium-cap stocks by funds;</p><p>② The actual epidemic situation = nature's supply-side reform has destroyed the old economy subject to the lockdown of the city-it is a pie in the sky for the technology Internet;</p><p>③ Tesla is highly exposed, but most of Tesla's performance actually comes from the short-squeezing effect, which has a high positive correlation with short-squeezing-Tesla stock has certain financial asset attributes. To some extent, it is very similar to Bitcoin, and it is the result of capital grouping.</p><p>④ Small and medium-cap exposure and low-quality exposure: ARK holds a large number of small and medium-cap stocks and stocks with weak balance sheets. In fact, this is due to the fact that low interest rates catalyze the risk appetite of market participants, which highly overlaps with the preferences of retail investors.</p><p>⑤ AUM expansion + retail tracking → reflexive effect: ARK's outstanding performance this year has led to the continuous acceleration of capital inflow, forming a positive feedback effect-the latter-incoming funds push positions into positive feedback. In addition, due to the transparent announcement of ARK's fund positions, many retail investors have been attracted to follow suit and positive feedback has been strengthened.</p><p>At the beginning of the year, the A-share online celebrity funds actually had the characteristics of ARK. In fact, most of them were passive investments of passive risk premia style factors. They benefited from the big beta released by the central bank, and the alpha content was not high. Moreover, retail investors' chasing online celebrity fund is actually equivalent to retail investors' long gamma on GME options, which has a lot of leverage effect in the short term. In fact, they are not value investments, but against time and intrinsic value, trying to grab huge profits from the future and cash out in the short term.</p><p>ARK is now constantly selling large-cap stocks and buying small-cap stocks for a last ditch. But what we observe is:</p><p><ul><li>ARK's trading volume declined significantly,</p><p></li><li>The call option market has shrunk significantly = retail assets go to gamma, deleverage, and shrink. After Biden issued the subsidy, we did not observe the market-expected entry of the retail army.</p><p></li><li>This week, the yield of U.S. bonds fell, and the first-tier technology stocks rebounded sharply, but the target of gamma squeeze plummeted (ironically, the first-tier leader of A shares-Mao Index is resonating with the United States-junk stocks and second-tier technology stocks)</p><p></li></ul>Last night, both Yellen and Powell talked about the existence of an asset bubble (US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures).</p><p>A financial \"Maling Road\" encirclement and suppression may have the right time, place and people. We are \"clear\" and watch carefully.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c594d0f35d546b7e772525962725ebdb\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb27b96b2dec4cfd8ba23c1c66febb19\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Western legend has it that God will reward good and punish evil on Judgment Day;</p><p>We don't expect 2021 to be a big bear market,</p><p>But 2021 is likely to be the year of a return to the mean at the macro level</p><p>-manifested at various levels:</p><p>Time,</p><p>Territory,</p><p>Supply Chain,</p><p>Valuation,</p><p>Style,</p><p>Humanity,</p><p>Desire,</p><p>Earth gravity...</p><p>\"When the tide subsides, you know who is swimming naked.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c514a790774c86cfa09ba0d39d7de12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Image: visualcapitalist.com</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg\">泷韬全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367fa068a00cbca94908e862748783f0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100080179","content_text":"作者：袁玉玮去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内疾 —— 理论上会向后延伸分布，除非经济会快速繁荣（这非常不现实）。为什么看空新兴市场，尤其土耳其，拉美股汇双杀美债收益率是全球资产定价的锚。无论你如何否认外力的作用，美国在全球的金融影响力目前无人匹敌。另外，2016年之后的广义价值投资，茅指数崛起，其实也是A股对外资开放后，投资风格机构化，长期化，被动化，基本面驱动的过程。我个人认为，在内部资产虚火旺盛，充斥泡沫，过度高估（万得全A-ex银行石化PE达到41倍）的时候，外部因素影响一定超过内部因素，从全球宏观的角度全方位评估风险。外部任何风吹草动都可能是压倒骆驼的稻草。美元泛滥，发达国家0/负利率，在去年推动了全球资产泡沫，那么当美债利率上涨的时候，其实就是每个国家的“资产管理人”要面临一定hurdle rate才能收业绩费的考核 —— 潮退了，我们才知道谁没游泳。我们之前选了历史上一贯有债务危机传统的土耳其，拉美作为做空标的，近期暴跌之前，他们都面临疫情恶化，或国内恶性通胀的危险。作为石油产出国，巴西甚至害怕石油涨价恶化通胀，撤了巴西石油公司的CEO，通胀风险可见一斑。符合这2个标准的还有印度，俄罗斯，但因为：前者的种姓制度根本忽略底层的“人”的生死，没有道德和经济包袱，疫情对他们来说就像一场内部优胜劣汰，所以从资产上很难观测波动；而后者由于受益于石油上涨，而且前几年未雨绸缪，黄金储备高—— 所以这2个做空逻辑都有瑕疵。为了对冲EM风险，我们选择了多东亚/空土耳其和拉美。和Druckenmiller的观点一样，我们从去年在EM相对看好东亚 —— 得益于疫情控制，尤其在科技，新能源处于优势。但他说的买东亚/空美国，我觉得还是过于激进。我们在18年就说过，美国一向在美元上短空长多，割EM韭菜。去年底，全世界都看空美元的时候，美元不跌，拥挤的空头们就该反省了。这也是为什么我们今年不那么看空美元，看空EM的原因之一。盲目长期看空美元，是危险的。为什么不看好商品超级周期商品超级周期？这个逻辑太荒谬。历史上的商品超级周期都伴随人类经济的繁荣。最近一次由于中国加入WTO和全球一体化，变成世界工厂，叠加中国的地产经济驱动的消费升级和财富效应。而中国推动上一轮2000-2007超级商品周期，有很多精密的条件或偶然性：文化：任劳任怨，勤劳致富，炫富，底层忍耐贫富差距能力强基建政府高效中国经济的反身性：地产/通胀/工作效率/财富效应/消费上次还有美国地产泡沫和金砖五国同时崛起的大背景我们至少在未来10-20年内看不到任何一个地区或国家可以复制中国模式：印度和非洲人认命，无欲无求，或懒惰的天性，欧美也都困扰于长期低成长，通缩和贫富差距扩大，低欲望；根本无法复制2000-2007的中国。而且，2008年之后，全球央行用放水来保持经济相对稳定，实际很大部分得益于商品的通缩。在没有新兴国家替代中国驱动的条件下，商品如果进入超级周期，我看只有全球恶性通胀背景下才有可能 —— 那么离战争也就不远了。另外，本轮商品上涨，主要由于石油和铜上涨，但石油涨价因为供给侧；铜，我们看到有类似GME的gamma squeeze，美股，A股，铜期货...的跨市从虚拟向实体操纵价格，做局的嫌疑。这2个品种的内在逻辑无法完成领导商品牛市。为什么不看好化工龙头去年，驱动国内商品牛市有很多偶然因素：2020商品上涨主要基于 —— 全球央行放水 x 中国复工/苏 x 订单流向中国 x 欧洲居家办公导致的买房和装修、家电需求 x 疫苗后复工强预期 —— 这些因素具备高度的偶然性，短期性，无法长期复制；长期上涨需要经济和消费需求实质性改善，我们目前没看到。化工龙头去年享受了低油价，和美国去年石化产能被疫情冲击。这两个因素在今年都不存在。尤其美国复工，对国内化工是利空，而不是利多。为什么港股有风险年后的港股行情实际还是恒生科技股驱动，主要是南下抱团的懒惰思维。重夺港股定价权，是善良的价值投资者的一厢情愿。那么，港股实际同时暴露在四大风险：反垄断茅指数联动通胀预期和美债利率上涨美元升值综上，2021年，无论美股，A股，港股，都和2018年非常相似。但鉴于现在的高层领导强大的纠错能力，而且早已提前预警，并且要经济维稳、金融维稳；2021，不太可能完全复制2018。Gamma Squeeze, 散户，SPAC，ARK, 网红基金Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. —— 摘自MarketWatch我们去年分析过，ARK去年业绩很大程度上，得益于①0利率和负利率盛行，导致资金对成长股和中小盘股的追捧；②疫情实际 = 大自然的供给侧改革，摧枯拉朽了受制于封城的旧经济 —— 对科技互联网是天上掉馅饼；③Tesla高度暴露，但Tesla表现实际大部分来源于逼空效果，和空头减仓有高度的正相关性 —— Tesla股票有一定的金融资产属性，某种程度上，它和Bitcoin很类似，都是资金抱团的结果。④中小盘暴露和低质量暴露：ARK持有大量中小盘股和资产负债表弱的股票。这其实得益于低利率催化了市场参与者的风险偏好，和散户羊群的偏好高度重叠。⑤AUM扩张+散户跟踪→反身效应：ARK由于今年的超群业绩，导致资金流入不断加速，形成了正反馈效果 —— 后入的资金推动持仓进入正反馈。另外，由于ARK的基金持仓透明公布，吸引了众多散户跟风，又加强了正反馈。年初，A股的网红基金其实也具备ARK的特征，实际大部分是类被动risk premia风格因子的被动投资，他们得益于央行放水的大beta，alpha含量并不高。而且散户的追涨网红基金，实际等同于散户在GME期权上long gamma，短期有大量的杠杆效应。他们实际不是价值投资，而是在和时间，和内在价值作对，想从未来攫取暴利，短期套现。ARK目前不断抛出大盘股，买入小盘股，作最后一搏。但是我们观测到:ARK的交易量明显下降，看涨期权市场已经显著萎缩 = 散户资产去gamma，去杠杆，缩水，Biden发完补助，我们并没观测到市场预期的散户大军的进场。本周，美债收益率下降，一线科技股大幅反弹，但gamma squeeze标的却出现暴跌现象（讽刺的是，A股的一线龙头 —— 茅指数在和美国抱团票 —— 垃圾股，二线科技股共振）昨晚，Yellen和Powell又双双谈到目前存在资产泡沫（US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures）。一场金融\"马陵道\"围剿的天时，地利，人和，也许都具备了。我们“慭慭然”，小心观测。西方传说上帝会在审判日那天赏善罚恶；我们并不预期2021一定是大熊市，但2021很可能是宏观层面均值回归的一年—— 表现在各个层面：时间，地域，供应链，估值，风格，人性，欲念，地球引力...“潮退了，你才知道谁在裸泳。”图片：visualcapitalist.com","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351266314,"gmtCreate":1616597903738,"gmtModify":1704796269871,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK","listText":"MARK","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351266314","repostId":"351330272","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":351330272,"gmtCreate":1616561158196,"gmtModify":1704795677735,"author":{"id":"3478213283465426","authorId":"3478213283465426","name":"美股投资网","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bfd2cf1aa240d7058795c83d419510","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3478213283465426","authorIdStr":"3478213283465426"},"themes":[],"title":"NFT是泡沫還是風口？附NFT概念股列表，一文帶你深入瞭解","htmlText":"【NFT】Non-Fungible Token 一種特殊的加密生成的代幣，它使用區塊鏈技術與無法複製的獨特數字資產進行鏈接。具有非.同.質.化.代.幣，具有不可分割、不可替代、獨一無二等特點。我們美股投資網早在上週三就發文推測NFT概念或讓TKAT涉足這個領域。當天收盤價22.6美元，今天最高漲到74美元，漲幅236%。回顧&nbsp;妖股 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TKAT\">$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$</a>&nbsp; 爲什麼暴漲277%在區塊鏈上，數字加.密.貨.幣分爲原生幣和代幣兩大類。前者如BTC、ETH等，擁有自己的主鏈，使用鏈上的交易來維護賬本數據；代幣則是依附於現有的區塊鏈，使用智能合約來進行賬本的記錄，如依附於以太坊上而發佈的token。代幣之中又可分爲同質化和非同質化兩種： 同質化代幣，即FT（Fungible Token），互相可以替代、可接近無限拆分的token。 而非.同.質.化.代.幣，即NFT，每一個 NFT 擁有獨特且唯一的標識，兩兩不可互換。如加密貓、token化的數字門票等。也就相當於帶有編號的人民幣，不會存在兩張編號一樣的人民幣。 因此，相較於FT，NFT的關鍵創新之處在於提供了一種標記原生數字資產所有權（即存在於數字世界，或發源於數字世界的資產）的方法，捕捉信息然後發現該信息與鏈上所有其它信息的關係和價值。同時，NFT由於其非同質化、不可拆分的特性，使得它可以錨定現實世界中商品的概念，簡單來理解，就是在發行在區塊鏈上的數字資產，這個資產可以是遊戲道具、數字藝術品、門票等，並且具有唯一性和不可複製性。NFT 形式下的，&nbsp;NBA Top Shot 推出的「數字版球星卡」。NTF的應用場景很多，遊戲、票務等等都是它的應用範圍，具體的應","listText":"【NFT】Non-Fungible Token 一種特殊的加密生成的代幣，它使用區塊鏈技術與無法複製的獨特數字資產進行鏈接。具有非.同.質.化.代.幣，具有不可分割、不可替代、獨一無二等特點。我們美股投資網早在上週三就發文推測NFT概念或讓TKAT涉足這個領域。當天收盤價22.6美元，今天最高漲到74美元，漲幅236%。回顧&nbsp;妖股 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TKAT\">$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$</a>&nbsp; 爲什麼暴漲277%在區塊鏈上，數字加.密.貨.幣分爲原生幣和代幣兩大類。前者如BTC、ETH等，擁有自己的主鏈，使用鏈上的交易來維護賬本數據；代幣則是依附於現有的區塊鏈，使用智能合約來進行賬本的記錄，如依附於以太坊上而發佈的token。代幣之中又可分爲同質化和非同質化兩種： 同質化代幣，即FT（Fungible Token），互相可以替代、可接近無限拆分的token。 而非.同.質.化.代.幣，即NFT，每一個 NFT 擁有獨特且唯一的標識，兩兩不可互換。如加密貓、token化的數字門票等。也就相當於帶有編號的人民幣，不會存在兩張編號一樣的人民幣。 因此，相較於FT，NFT的關鍵創新之處在於提供了一種標記原生數字資產所有權（即存在於數字世界，或發源於數字世界的資產）的方法，捕捉信息然後發現該信息與鏈上所有其它信息的關係和價值。同時，NFT由於其非同質化、不可拆分的特性，使得它可以錨定現實世界中商品的概念，簡單來理解，就是在發行在區塊鏈上的數字資產，這個資產可以是遊戲道具、數字藝術品、門票等，並且具有唯一性和不可複製性。NFT 形式下的，&nbsp;NBA Top Shot 推出的「數字版球星卡」。NTF的應用場景很多，遊戲、票務等等都是它的應用範圍，具體的應","text":"【NFT】Non-Fungible Token 一種特殊的加密生成的代幣，它使用區塊鏈技術與無法複製的獨特數字資產進行鏈接。具有非.同.質.化.代.幣，具有不可分割、不可替代、獨一無二等特點。我們美股投資網早在上週三就發文推測NFT概念或讓TKAT涉足這個領域。當天收盤價22.6美元，今天最高漲到74美元，漲幅236%。回顧 妖股 $Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$ 爲什麼暴漲277%在區塊鏈上，數字加.密.貨.幣分爲原生幣和代幣兩大類。前者如BTC、ETH等，擁有自己的主鏈，使用鏈上的交易來維護賬本數據；代幣則是依附於現有的區塊鏈，使用智能合約來進行賬本的記錄，如依附於以太坊上而發佈的token。代幣之中又可分爲同質化和非同質化兩種： 同質化代幣，即FT（Fungible Token），互相可以替代、可接近無限拆分的token。 而非.同.質.化.代.幣，即NFT，每一個 NFT 擁有獨特且唯一的標識，兩兩不可互換。如加密貓、token化的數字門票等。也就相當於帶有編號的人民幣，不會存在兩張編號一樣的人民幣。 因此，相較於FT，NFT的關鍵創新之處在於提供了一種標記原生數字資產所有權（即存在於數字世界，或發源於數字世界的資產）的方法，捕捉信息然後發現該信息與鏈上所有其它信息的關係和價值。同時，NFT由於其非同質化、不可拆分的特性，使得它可以錨定現實世界中商品的概念，簡單來理解，就是在發行在區塊鏈上的數字資產，這個資產可以是遊戲道具、數字藝術品、門票等，並且具有唯一性和不可複製性。NFT 形式下的， NBA Top Shot 推出的「數字版球星卡」。NTF的應用場景很多，遊戲、票務等等都是它的應用範圍，具體的應","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5556605ed49715d8972f8d4818a605e6","width":"1080","height":"608"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/171c78e1be17a5b48674fee6c4cbcba8","width":"1080","height":"506"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda23cb6af7d34f156456ff4d0a88f6d","width":"1080","height":"721"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351330272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":16,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353069879,"gmtCreate":1616432079891,"gmtModify":1704794112736,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"VLKAF 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Frankfurt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353069023","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353060782,"gmtCreate":1616432040946,"gmtModify":1704794112898,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAPY\">$Volkswagen AG(VWAPY)$</a> VLKAF - Common Stock traded OTCVLKPF - Preferred Stock traded OTCVWAGY - ADR representing 1/10th Common StockVWAPY - ADR representing 1/10th Preferred StockVOW - Common Stock traded in FrankfurtVOW3 - Preferred Stock traded in Frankfurt","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VWAPY\">$Volkswagen AG(VWAPY)$</a> VLKAF - Common Stock traded OTCVLKPF - Preferred Stock traded OTCVWAGY - ADR representing 1/10th Common StockVWAPY - ADR representing 1/10th Preferred StockVOW - Common Stock traded in FrankfurtVOW3 - Preferred Stock traded in Frankfurt","text":"$Volkswagen AG(VWAPY)$ VLKAF - Common Stock traded OTCVLKPF - Preferred Stock traded OTCVWAGY - ADR representing 1/10th Common StockVWAPY - ADR representing 1/10th Preferred StockVOW - Common Stock traded in FrankfurtVOW3 - Preferred Stock traded in Frankfurt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353060782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359978961,"gmtCreate":1616332435653,"gmtModify":1704792954097,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK","listText":"MARK","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359978961","repostId":"359973220","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":359973220,"gmtCreate":1616332170360,"gmtModify":1720100981047,"author":{"id":"3480981608385315","authorId":"3480981608385315","name":"美股发掘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abdc48c0021a0507dbaed6e5ea5d9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480981608385315","authorIdStr":"3480981608385315"},"themes":[],"title":"什麼是NFT，爲什麼有些價值幾百萬？NFT是區塊鏈下一個炒作的風口？","htmlText":"僅數字作品在佳士得拍賣行以6900萬美元（5000萬英鎊）的驚人價格售出-但中標人將不會收到雕塑，繪畫甚至版畫。相反，他們獲得了稱爲NFT的唯一數字令牌。比特幣曾被譽爲貨幣的數字答案，而現在，人們卻將NFT吹捧爲收藏品的數字答案。但是，有很多懷疑論者認爲這將是整個泡沫的破滅。什麼是NFT？NFT代表不可替代的令牌。在經濟學中，可替代資產是指具有易於互換的單位的東西，例如貨幣。有了錢，您可以將10英鎊面額的紙幣換成兩張5英鎊面額的紙幣，它們的價值相同。但是，如果某些東西是不可替代的，這是不可能的-這意味着它具有獨特的屬性，因此無法與其他東西互換。它可以是房屋，也可以是諸如《蒙娜麗莎》的畫作。您可以拍攝該繪畫的照片或購買印刷品，但只有一幅原始繪畫。NFT是數字世界中的“一種”資產，可以像其他任何財產一樣進行買賣，但它們沒有自己的有形形式。可以將數字令牌視爲虛擬或物理資產的所有權證書。NFT如何工作？傳統藝術作品（例如繪畫）是有價值的，因爲它們是其中的一種。但是，數字文件可以輕鬆無休止地進行復制。使用NFT，可以對藝術品進行“標記”，以創建可以購買和出售的數字所有權證書。與加密貨幣一樣，誰擁有擁有存儲在稱爲區塊鏈的共享賬本中的東西的記錄。由於總帳由世界各地數千臺計算機維護，因此無法僞造記錄。NFT還可以包含智能合約，例如，可以向藝術家提供令牌將來的任何銷售收益。是什麼阻止人們複製數字藝術？沒有。數以百萬計的人看到了Beeple的藝術品以6900萬美元的價格售出，並且圖像被複制和分享了無數次。在許多情況下，藝術家甚至保留其作品的版權所有權，因此他們可以繼續製作和銷售副本。但是NFT的購買者擁有一個“令牌”，可以證明他們擁有“原始”作品。有些人將其與購買簽名印刷品相提並論。人們爲代幣支付了數百萬美元嗎？是的。聽起來很瘋狂。NFT值多少錢？從理論上講，任何人都可以將他們的工作標記爲NF","listText":"僅數字作品在佳士得拍賣行以6900萬美元（5000萬英鎊）的驚人價格售出-但中標人將不會收到雕塑，繪畫甚至版畫。相反，他們獲得了稱爲NFT的唯一數字令牌。比特幣曾被譽爲貨幣的數字答案，而現在，人們卻將NFT吹捧爲收藏品的數字答案。但是，有很多懷疑論者認爲這將是整個泡沫的破滅。什麼是NFT？NFT代表不可替代的令牌。在經濟學中，可替代資產是指具有易於互換的單位的東西，例如貨幣。有了錢，您可以將10英鎊面額的紙幣換成兩張5英鎊面額的紙幣，它們的價值相同。但是，如果某些東西是不可替代的，這是不可能的-這意味着它具有獨特的屬性，因此無法與其他東西互換。它可以是房屋，也可以是諸如《蒙娜麗莎》的畫作。您可以拍攝該繪畫的照片或購買印刷品，但只有一幅原始繪畫。NFT是數字世界中的“一種”資產，可以像其他任何財產一樣進行買賣，但它們沒有自己的有形形式。可以將數字令牌視爲虛擬或物理資產的所有權證書。NFT如何工作？傳統藝術作品（例如繪畫）是有價值的，因爲它們是其中的一種。但是，數字文件可以輕鬆無休止地進行復制。使用NFT，可以對藝術品進行“標記”，以創建可以購買和出售的數字所有權證書。與加密貨幣一樣，誰擁有擁有存儲在稱爲區塊鏈的共享賬本中的東西的記錄。由於總帳由世界各地數千臺計算機維護，因此無法僞造記錄。NFT還可以包含智能合約，例如，可以向藝術家提供令牌將來的任何銷售收益。是什麼阻止人們複製數字藝術？沒有。數以百萬計的人看到了Beeple的藝術品以6900萬美元的價格售出，並且圖像被複制和分享了無數次。在許多情況下，藝術家甚至保留其作品的版權所有權，因此他們可以繼續製作和銷售副本。但是NFT的購買者擁有一個“令牌”，可以證明他們擁有“原始”作品。有些人將其與購買簽名印刷品相提並論。人們爲代幣支付了數百萬美元嗎？是的。聽起來很瘋狂。NFT值多少錢？從理論上講，任何人都可以將他們的工作標記爲NF","text":"僅數字作品在佳士得拍賣行以6900萬美元（5000萬英鎊）的驚人價格售出-但中標人將不會收到雕塑，繪畫甚至版畫。相反，他們獲得了稱爲NFT的唯一數字令牌。比特幣曾被譽爲貨幣的數字答案，而現在，人們卻將NFT吹捧爲收藏品的數字答案。但是，有很多懷疑論者認爲這將是整個泡沫的破滅。什麼是NFT？NFT代表不可替代的令牌。在經濟學中，可替代資產是指具有易於互換的單位的東西，例如貨幣。有了錢，您可以將10英鎊面額的紙幣換成兩張5英鎊面額的紙幣，它們的價值相同。但是，如果某些東西是不可替代的，這是不可能的-這意味着它具有獨特的屬性，因此無法與其他東西互換。它可以是房屋，也可以是諸如《蒙娜麗莎》的畫作。您可以拍攝該繪畫的照片或購買印刷品，但只有一幅原始繪畫。NFT是數字世界中的“一種”資產，可以像其他任何財產一樣進行買賣，但它們沒有自己的有形形式。可以將數字令牌視爲虛擬或物理資產的所有權證書。NFT如何工作？傳統藝術作品（例如繪畫）是有價值的，因爲它們是其中的一種。但是，數字文件可以輕鬆無休止地進行復制。使用NFT，可以對藝術品進行“標記”，以創建可以購買和出售的數字所有權證書。與加密貨幣一樣，誰擁有擁有存儲在稱爲區塊鏈的共享賬本中的東西的記錄。由於總帳由世界各地數千臺計算機維護，因此無法僞造記錄。NFT還可以包含智能合約，例如，可以向藝術家提供令牌將來的任何銷售收益。是什麼阻止人們複製數字藝術？沒有。數以百萬計的人看到了Beeple的藝術品以6900萬美元的價格售出，並且圖像被複制和分享了無數次。在許多情況下，藝術家甚至保留其作品的版權所有權，因此他們可以繼續製作和銷售副本。但是NFT的購買者擁有一個“令牌”，可以證明他們擁有“原始”作品。有些人將其與購買簽名印刷品相提並論。人們爲代幣支付了數百萬美元嗎？是的。聽起來很瘋狂。NFT值多少錢？從理論上講，任何人都可以將他們的工作標記爲NF","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/795bbbf569f89b1a88eca75854e84053","width":"2000","height":"1125"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359973220","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320352013,"gmtCreate":1615024360632,"gmtModify":1704778259994,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"MARK&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320352013","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367189172,"gmtCreate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22:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There was another \"ARK fund\" 20 years ago, which was hailed to the sky in the bubble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170578915","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"20年前Janus基金的火爆，可能是ARK基金的一面镜子。","content":"<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>While \"new investors\" in the 2020s were talking about the highlight performance of ARK Fund under Catherine Wood (hereinafter referred to as \"Sister Wood\") in the past year, a similar fund was dug out of dusty history more than 20 years ago, reminding people that history will repeat itself!</p><p>Similar to the technology frenzy of the past year or so, the United States at the end of last century also had a carnival of Internet technology. The tide of PC and the Internet age swept through Silicon Valley, and the stock prices of many Internet companies rose to the sky.</p><p>In the 1990s, there was a mutual fund named Janus 20. Because of its heavy positions in growth stocks such as Internet technology stocks under the trend of the times, it doubled more than five times in 10 years, and became the most prestigious star fund at that time.</p><p>Does it sound very similar to today's ARK funds? Yes, the fund was as popular back then as it is today<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>。</p><p><b>Janus, the two-faced god</b></p><p>When it comes to the Janus 20 Fund, we have to mention the asset management company Janus. Like its fate, Janus derives its name from Roman mythology, meaning \"two-faced god\".</p><p>In that year, Janus was as popular as ARK Investment, and Tom Bayley, founder, chairman and CEO of Janus, was as famous as Sister Wood. The reason why Janus 20 is popular is that this fund is \"too profitable\".</p><p>In the decade since its inception, Janus managed funds that expanded from $3 billion to $300 billion, making it the fifth largest fund company in the United States. At the peak of the stock market in 2000, the Janus Fund accounted for 30% of the new fundraising of all mutual funds in the United States!</p><p>Even President Clinton himself entrusted Janus with his personal accounts.</p><p>Looking closely at Janus's funds, in 1999, 11 of the 14 equity funds it managed had returns of at least 50% and four of them exceeded 100%.</p><p>But as Janus is named, as a \"two-faced god,\" Janus also possesses another side, and a terrifying one at that.</p><p>In 2000, when the Internet bubble in the United States burst, Janus Fund, which was heavily positioned in growth stocks such as Internet and technology, also collapsed, and the net value of the fund fell much faster than that of the broader market, setting the worst performance of Janus Fund in the history-falling by 40%.</p><p>Sure enough, because whatever rises will fall because of what. And the capital market is also cruel, and the previous highlights can't hide the fact that it will eventually be wiped out.</p><p><b>Favor Tech, Small Caps</b></p><p>Behind the sharp rise and fall is the skill of a fund company in research and risk control.</p><p>If you want to explore why Janus was held on the altar and fell at high altitude, you need to see through the positions and investment styles behind it.</p><p>Janus likes to bet heavily on blue chip stocks. Compared with the careful research and in-depth research of other fund managers, and questioning the long-term deterministic growth of a company, Janus's fund managers generally rarely do careful research. As long as they financially confirm the future prospects of the company, Janus will strike hard.</p><p>Janus didn't care much about decentralization either. For example, on September 30, 2000, Fidelity Fund spread $608.3 billion to more than 6,800 companies, while Janus invested only $220.1 billion in 514 stocks.</p><p>Does this look a lot like the dozens of tech stocks ARK is concentrating on buying?</p><p>On top of that, Janus has a soft spot for small-cap stocks. Few investment firms in the United States at the time invested as much money in smaller companies as Janus did. Janus believes that after holding a certain percentage of the equity of a small business, you can legitimately enter the management level of the enterprise and control the business operation.</p><p>While small-cap stocks typically trade in hundreds of thousands of shares a day, Janus tends to hold millions of shares. Of course, Janus isn't necessarily selling these shares, but the price of these shares is bound to plummet once it is urgently needed to cash out, which the market will take weeks to digest.</p><p>Does this look a lot like the small-cap biomedical stocks ARK is heavily buying right now?</p><p>At the time, Janus was like a gambler: gambling right and having an eye for it; Wrong bet, lost all game.</p><p>In fact, Janus's previous investment style has not always been this. Before the 1990s, the company said that \"stocks with a P/E above 30 should never be touched\".</p><p>But then Clegg, the newly appointed star fund manager, changed his mind and led Janus headlong into tech stocks, earning huge returns. At the time, it was the right strategy and delivered the high returns of 1999, but it also planted the bane of a sharp decline in performance in 2000.</p><p>In any case, we may not be able to pass all the blame on investment style and industry choice. After all, in the asset management industry, everyone still faces one of the biggest enemies-scale.</p><p>Looking back, all the events that have occurred in history are experiences and alarm bells that can be used for reference at present. After all, in the capital market, which has only been around for more than 100 years, a lot of history has been repeated many times.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There was another \"ARK fund\" 20 years ago, which was hailed to the sky in the bubble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere was another \"ARK fund\" 20 years ago, which was hailed to the sky in the bubble\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 22:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yu Xudong</p><p>While \"new investors\" in the 2020s were talking about the highlight performance of ARK Fund under Catherine Wood (hereinafter referred to as \"Sister Wood\") in the past year, a similar fund was dug out of dusty history more than 20 years ago, reminding people that history will repeat itself!</p><p>Similar to the technology frenzy of the past year or so, the United States at the end of last century also had a carnival of Internet technology. The tide of PC and the Internet age swept through Silicon Valley, and the stock prices of many Internet companies rose to the sky.</p><p>In the 1990s, there was a mutual fund named Janus 20. Because of its heavy positions in growth stocks such as Internet technology stocks under the trend of the times, it doubled more than five times in 10 years, and became the most prestigious star fund at that time.</p><p>Does it sound very similar to today's ARK funds? Yes, the fund was as popular back then as it is today<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>。</p><p><b>Janus, the two-faced god</b></p><p>When it comes to the Janus 20 Fund, we have to mention the asset management company Janus. Like its fate, Janus derives its name from Roman mythology, meaning \"two-faced god\".</p><p>In that year, Janus was as popular as ARK Investment, and Tom Bayley, founder, chairman and CEO of Janus, was as famous as Sister Wood. The reason why Janus 20 is popular is that this fund is \"too profitable\".</p><p>In the decade since its inception, Janus managed funds that expanded from $3 billion to $300 billion, making it the fifth largest fund company in the United States. At the peak of the stock market in 2000, the Janus Fund accounted for 30% of the new fundraising of all mutual funds in the United States!</p><p>Even President Clinton himself entrusted Janus with his personal accounts.</p><p>Looking closely at Janus's funds, in 1999, 11 of the 14 equity funds it managed had returns of at least 50% and four of them exceeded 100%.</p><p>But as Janus is named, as a \"two-faced god,\" Janus also possesses another side, and a terrifying one at that.</p><p>In 2000, when the Internet bubble in the United States burst, Janus Fund, which was heavily positioned in growth stocks such as Internet and technology, also collapsed, and the net value of the fund fell much faster than that of the broader market, setting the worst performance of Janus Fund in the history-falling by 40%.</p><p>Sure enough, because whatever rises will fall because of what. And the capital market is also cruel, and the previous highlights can't hide the fact that it will eventually be wiped out.</p><p><b>Favor Tech, Small Caps</b></p><p>Behind the sharp rise and fall is the skill of a fund company in research and risk control.</p><p>If you want to explore why Janus was held on the altar and fell at high altitude, you need to see through the positions and investment styles behind it.</p><p>Janus likes to bet heavily on blue chip stocks. Compared with the careful research and in-depth research of other fund managers, and questioning the long-term deterministic growth of a company, Janus's fund managers generally rarely do careful research. As long as they financially confirm the future prospects of the company, Janus will strike hard.</p><p>Janus didn't care much about decentralization either. For example, on September 30, 2000, Fidelity Fund spread $608.3 billion to more than 6,800 companies, while Janus invested only $220.1 billion in 514 stocks.</p><p>Does this look a lot like the dozens of tech stocks ARK is concentrating on buying?</p><p>On top of that, Janus has a soft spot for small-cap stocks. Few investment firms in the United States at the time invested as much money in smaller companies as Janus did. Janus believes that after holding a certain percentage of the equity of a small business, you can legitimately enter the management level of the enterprise and control the business operation.</p><p>While small-cap stocks typically trade in hundreds of thousands of shares a day, Janus tends to hold millions of shares. Of course, Janus isn't necessarily selling these shares, but the price of these shares is bound to plummet once it is urgently needed to cash out, which the market will take weeks to digest.</p><p>Does this look a lot like the small-cap biomedical stocks ARK is heavily buying right now?</p><p>At the time, Janus was like a gambler: gambling right and having an eye for it; Wrong bet, lost all game.</p><p>In fact, Janus's previous investment style has not always been this. Before the 1990s, the company said that \"stocks with a P/E above 30 should never be touched\".</p><p>But then Clegg, the newly appointed star fund manager, changed his mind and led Janus headlong into tech stocks, earning huge returns. At the time, it was the right strategy and delivered the high returns of 1999, but it also planted the bane of a sharp decline in performance in 2000.</p><p>In any case, we may not be able to pass all the blame on investment style and industry choice. After all, in the asset management industry, everyone still faces one of the biggest enemies-scale.</p><p>Looking back, all the events that have occurred in history are experiences and alarm bells that can be used for reference at present. After all, in the capital market, which has only been around for more than 100 years, a lot of history has been repeated many times.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622484\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e27e493fca2a3b9511b2209552a865","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622484","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1170578915","content_text":"作者：于旭东当21世纪20年代的“新股民”们对过去一年Catherine Wood（下文称“木头姐”）麾下的ARK基金的高光表现津津乐道时，20多年前有一只相似的基金被人们从尘封的历史中挖出，提醒着人们：历史都会重演！与过去一年多的科技狂潮相似，上世纪末的美国也有着一场互联网科技的狂欢。PC和互联网时代的大潮席卷了硅谷，也把众多互联网企业的股价炒上了天。在上世纪90年代，有一家名为Janus 20的共同基金，由于在时代的潮流下大举重仓互联网科技股等成长股，在10年内翻了5倍以上，成为当时最负盛名的明星基金。听起来是不是和当今的ARK基金很像？没错，在那个年代这只基金的火爆程度，不亚于当今的ARK Innovation ETF。两面神Janus说到Janus 20基金，就不得不提资产管理公司Janus。与其命运一样，Janus名字的由来源于罗马神话，意为“两面神”。在当年，Janus的火爆程度不亚于ARK方舟投资，而Janus创始人、主席兼CEO汤姆·拜雷，其知名程度不亚于木头姐。而Janus 20之所以火爆，都是因为这家基金“太能赚钱了”。在成立后的十年间，Janus管理的基金规模从30亿美元扩张到3000亿美元，成为美国第五大基金公司。在2000年的股市高峰期，Janus基金的新增募资额占到了全美所有共同基金新增募资额的30%！就连美国总统克林顿本人，都把自己的个人账户亲自托付给Janus管理。细看Janus旗下的各只基金，在1999年，其所管理的14支股票类基金中，有11支回报率至少超过50%，4支超过100%。但正如Janus的名字一样，作为一个“两面神”，Janus也拥有另一面，而且是可怕的一面。2000年，美国互联网泡沫破裂，重仓互联网和科技等成长股的Janus基金也随之崩盘，且基金净值的下跌速度比大盘要快许多，创下了Janus基金有史以来的最差表现——跌去了40%。果然，因为什么上涨，就会因什么下跌。而资本市场也是残酷的，之前的高光也不能掩盖最终灰飞烟灭的事实。青睐科技、小盘股暴涨暴跌，背后映射的是一家基金公司在研究及风控上的功力。如果想探究为何Janus被捧上神坛，又在高空掉落，就需要透视其背后的持仓和投资风格。Janus喜欢在绩优股上下重注。对比其他基金经理的仔细调研和深入研究，并对一家公司的长期确定性增长产生质疑，Janus的基金经理一般很少细致调研，只要在财务上确认公司的未来前景，Janus就会重拳出击。在分散性上，Janus也不怎么上心。比如2000年9月30日，富达基金把6083亿美元分散到6800多家企业，而Janus只把2201亿美元投入到514只股票中。这是不是看起来很像ARK集中买入的几十家科技股？除此之外，Janus还对小盘股情有独钟。在当时的美国，很少有投资公司像Janus那样在小公司中投入如此庞大的资金。Janus认为，持有小企业一定比例的股权后，可以名正言顺地进入企业管理层，掌控企业经营。小盘股每天的交易量一般只有几十万股，而Janus手中却往往持有几百万股。当然，Janus并不一定会抛售这些股份，但一旦急需套现，市场需要几个星期的时间才能消化，这些股票的价格肯定一落千丈。这是不是看起来很像目前ARK大举买入的小盘生物医药股？在当时，Janus就像一名赌徒：赌对了，眼光独到；赌错了，满盘皆输。其实，Janus此前的并不是一直这样的投资风格。在上世纪90年代之前，公司曾称“市盈率高于30的股票绝对不碰”。但后来，新上任的明星基金经理克莱格改变初衷，率领Janus一头扎进科技股，并获得巨额回报。在当时，这是正确的战略，并带来1999年的高额回报，但同时也种下了2000年业绩大幅滑落的祸根。无论怎样，我们可能无法把所有责任全部推卸到投资风格和行业选择上，毕竟，在资产管理行业，所有人还面临着一个最大的敌人——规模。回顾过去，那些历史上曾经出现的种种事件，都是目前可借鉴的经验和警钟。毕竟在只有一百多年的资本市场里，许多历史已经重新上演过很多回。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364552854,"gmtCreate":1614866977178,"gmtModify":1704776257349,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364552854","repostId":"1109713751","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109713751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614863319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109713751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Twist Operation 3.0 is coming? This could be Powell's big move tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109713751","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"有分析认为，扭转操作3.0能够达到一石三鸟的效果","content":"<p>Author: Cao Zexi</p><p>Powell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, and the world is waiting with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have understated this in recent days.</p><p>What will Powell make in the face of wildly rising U.S. bond yields?</p><p>At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third-ever \"operation twist\".</p><p><b>What is a twist operation?</b></p><p>The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, the interest rate of long-term bonds is lowered, so as to encourage the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thus stimulating the economy.</p><p>The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at the time.</p><p>The twist operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion of long-term U.S. Treasury Bond with a five-year term, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. The purpose was not only to reduce the interest rate of long-term bonds, but also to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.</p><p>In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the distortion operation for the second time, hoping to solve the years of economic downturn caused by the financial crisis.</p><p><b>How is Twist Operation 3.0 different?</b></p><p>The Fed has yet to aim its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond during its post-pandemic recovery. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes that could happen again, given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:</p><p>In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis of Operation Twist in 1961. The study found that the net effect was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.</p><p>Regarding the reversal operation 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented the reversal operation from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the yield curve of U.S. bonds tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ends, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rises above 3.0% the following year.</p><p><b>Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely keep long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.</b></p><p>While not all investors have access to past Operation Turnaround, some investors may be disappointed if Powell did not unveil Operation Turnaround 3.0 in his speech.</p><p>The market's concern is that, given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any wind and grass may trigger a summer sale, including, of course, if the Federal Reserve refuses to reduce long-term Treasury Bond yields.</p><p><b>Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?</b></p><p>Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculation and rumors in the U.S. market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.</p><p>But, this time it seems different.</p><p>Because this time, the rumors of \"reversing Operation 3.0\" first came from Bank of America fixed-income strategist Mark Cabana, a former New York Fed staffer who \"occasionally\" heard the idea mentioned by someone who advised the New York Fed.</p><p>Cabana warned in a recent note that the recent interest rate rise could turn \"unhealthy\":</p><p>We are concerned that interest rate movements may become unhealthy as the economy, markets and the Fed all approach an 'inflection point' in the spring or summer. This could happen as the macro environment improves and the market and the Fed shift. For now, we think the Fed may start adjusting its 'blind dovish' stance on monetary policy and start laying the groundwork to begin tapering asset purchases in 2022.</p><p>Cabana argues that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.</p><p>In a note published over the weekend, Cabana wrote that the Fed should resume its \"turnaround operation\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.</p><p><b>He believes the move can have the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.</b></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twist Operation 3.0 is coming? This could be Powell's big move tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwist Operation 3.0 is coming? This could be Powell's big move tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 21:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Cao Zexi</p><p>Powell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, and the world is waiting with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have understated this in recent days.</p><p>What will Powell make in the face of wildly rising U.S. bond yields?</p><p>At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third-ever \"operation twist\".</p><p><b>What is a twist operation?</b></p><p>The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, the interest rate of long-term bonds is lowered, so as to encourage the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thus stimulating the economy.</p><p>The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at the time.</p><p>The twist operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion of long-term U.S. Treasury Bond with a five-year term, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. The purpose was not only to reduce the interest rate of long-term bonds, but also to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.</p><p>In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the distortion operation for the second time, hoping to solve the years of economic downturn caused by the financial crisis.</p><p><b>How is Twist Operation 3.0 different?</b></p><p>The Fed has yet to aim its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond during its post-pandemic recovery. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes that could happen again, given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:</p><p>In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis of Operation Twist in 1961. The study found that the net effect was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.</p><p>Regarding the reversal operation 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented the reversal operation from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the yield curve of U.S. bonds tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ends, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rises above 3.0% the following year.</p><p><b>Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely keep long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.</b></p><p>While not all investors have access to past Operation Turnaround, some investors may be disappointed if Powell did not unveil Operation Turnaround 3.0 in his speech.</p><p>The market's concern is that, given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any wind and grass may trigger a summer sale, including, of course, if the Federal Reserve refuses to reduce long-term Treasury Bond yields.</p><p><b>Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?</b></p><p>Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculation and rumors in the U.S. market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.</p><p>But, this time it seems different.</p><p>Because this time, the rumors of \"reversing Operation 3.0\" first came from Bank of America fixed-income strategist Mark Cabana, a former New York Fed staffer who \"occasionally\" heard the idea mentioned by someone who advised the New York Fed.</p><p>Cabana warned in a recent note that the recent interest rate rise could turn \"unhealthy\":</p><p>We are concerned that interest rate movements may become unhealthy as the economy, markets and the Fed all approach an 'inflection point' in the spring or summer. This could happen as the macro environment improves and the market and the Fed shift. For now, we think the Fed may start adjusting its 'blind dovish' stance on monetary policy and start laying the groundwork to begin tapering asset purchases in 2022.</p><p>Cabana argues that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.</p><p>In a note published over the weekend, Cabana wrote that the Fed should resume its \"turnaround operation\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.</p><p><b>He believes the move can have the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109713751","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨1:05发表演讲，全球屏息以待其对美债收益率的表态。尽管美联储理事布雷纳德周二承认了市场上存在美债收益率急涨可能抑制经济活动的担忧，但近日来，许多美联储官员对此持轻描淡写的态度。面对疯狂上升的美债收益率，鲍威尔会作何表态？目前市场最大的共识，是美联储将开始进行有史以来第三次“扭转操作”（operation twist）。什么是扭转操作？所谓“扭转操作”是美联储的一种经济政策，通过卖出短债及买入长债，压低长债利率，借此励银行业向中小企放贷，从而刺激经济。扭转操作由美国经济学家詹姆士·托宾于1960年代初设计，名称来自当时流行的扭扭舞（Twist）。扭转操作其后获美国联邦储备局于1961年首次采用。当时联储局购入以五年期为主的40亿美元长期美国国债，同时卖出短债，目的除了降低长债利率，更希望减少流失美国黄金储备，但当年的成效不大。2011年9月，美国联邦储备局第二次采用扭曲操作，希望能够解决金融危机引起多年的经济不景气。扭转操作3.0有什么不同？在疫情后复苏期间，美联储尚未将其“流动性大炮”对准10年期美国国债。不过，DataTrek联合创始Nick Colas认为，鉴于美联储过去曾试图控制收益率曲线，这种情况可能会再次发生：2011年，旧金山联储发表了一份关于1961年‘扭转操作’(Operation Twist)的分析报告。研究发现，净效应是将长期收益率推低0.15个百分点。关于扭转操作2.0，也就是美联储在2011年9月至2012年12月期间实施了扭转操作，结果是，美债收益率曲线发生倾斜。10年期国债收益率从3.75%的峰值跌至1.44%的低点。然后，随着操作结束，10年期国债收益率在第二年升至3.0%以上。Colas的结论是，“美联储绝对可以将长期利率压低100基点或更多。”他还认为，这是投资者关注鲍威尔讲话最重要的焦点。虽然并非所有投资者都能了解过去的“扭转操作”，但如果鲍威尔在讲话中没有公布“扭转操作3.0”，一些投资者可能会感到失望。市场担忧的是，鉴于美国股市已经处于非常不稳定的状态，似乎几乎任何风吹草动都可能引发夏促哦，当然这也包括，如果美联储拒绝降低长期国债收益率。为什么大家都认为会出现“扭转操作3.0”？尽管在任何市场动荡时，美国市场都会有各种各样美联储会如何如何出手救市的猜测和传闻。但是，这一次似乎不一样。因为这一次，关于“扭转操作3.0”的传言最先来自于美国银行固收策略师Mark Cabana，他此前是前纽约联储的职员，一位“偶尔”听到为纽约联储提供建议的人提到了这一想法。Cabana在最近的一份报告中警告说，最近的利率上扬可能会变成“不健康的”：我们担心，随着经济，市场和美联储在春季或夏季都接近一个‘拐点’，利率走势可能会变得不健康。这可能会随着宏观环境的改善以及市场和美联储的转变而发生。目前，我们认为美联储可能会开始调整其货币政策的‘盲目的鸽派’立场，并开始为2022年开始缩减资产购买规模奠定基础。Cabana认为，央行根本无法承受如此高的全球债务利率。Cabana在周末发表的一份报告中写道，美联储应重新采取“扭转操作”，以有效解决与市场运作有关的关键问题。他认为，此举能够达到一石三鸟的效果：提高了短期利率，稳定了长期利率，并且以储备中立的方式这样做，从而减轻了银行SLR持有更多资本的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364600463,"gmtCreate":1614841854352,"gmtModify":1704775882059,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364600463","repostId":"2116521920","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364812210,"gmtCreate":1614833172530,"gmtModify":1704775795442,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364812210","repostId":"1129470422","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129470422","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"点拾是由行业最专业的投资研究人组成，专注于中国和海外新兴领域的互联网，消费，金融等行业研究。我们的研究，已经获得行业内最优秀的投资者认可，特别是消费，科技互联网和跨境比较是我们的优势。我们相信自己的努力一定能为您的投资助力。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"点拾投资","id":"67","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6"},"pubTimestamp":1614828533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129470422?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 11:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment calmly?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129470422","media":"点拾投资","summary":"芒格作为伟大的投资导师，他的亲身经历给了我们很好的借鉴：如何真的拥有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格如何正确看待投资中的回撤。学会承受损失你需要有耐心","content":"<p>As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good lesson: how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even in the face of losses and adversity. Today, I will share with you how Charlie Munger puts the pullback/retracement in investment in perspective.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need to have patience, discipline and the ability not to go crazy even in the face of loss and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt, Netflix, Amazon, and Google are the three most successful companies of the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed the way we live, and if their shareholders can stick to their shares for a long time, these shareholders will also get huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial rules is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to make a huge return on your investment, you are also doomed to take on the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual rate of return of 35.5%. This means that an initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 by today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years cannot be underestimated. Three times in history, Amazon's share price has fallen by more than 50%. The first was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would have fallen from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is not simple to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world,\" but even that won't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound yield of 38% since it went public in May 2002. But achieving this gain is also almost beyond the investment discipline one can afford. Netflix's share price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This amounts to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Will investors really be able to live with their initial investment pullback/retracement more than thirty times? Especially the 500% gain disappeared in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual rate of return of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has fallen by more than 50% only once, when it fell by 65% between November 2017 and November 2018. A lot of investors couldn't stand this period when his stock price took a big pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market value at that time was less than $153 billion. That said, shares were changed hands 5.5 times during that time, which cost many investors the opportunity to earn 515% returns over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies such as Amazon, Netflix and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have allowed him to earn huge investment returns have also seen huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, is known as a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His intelligent and philosophical quotes are collectively called Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think from multiple perspectives with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". \"People count too much and think too little,\" he said at Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 shareholder meeting.</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be drawn to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said \"We have three baskets, which are in, out, and too hard\". Investors should all follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\".</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products in the market that serve investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation I had with the tackle boss. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really get hooked for this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully develop a legal career. In the early years of Munger's investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His investing enthusiasm was ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis introduced him to Buffett as his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to pay much attention to Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett resembles Charlie Munger, another investor Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two of them were so similar that Davis once filled out Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off. After years of communication, learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% per annum before rates. 5 Especially when you look at it in combination with the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more valuable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500, including Dividend, has only gained 6.6% in the same time. For the entire 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound rate of return of 19.82%, much higher than the index, and the S&P 500 (including Dividend) compounded rate of return was only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners will be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains large losses in short-term stages. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be hard for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not a good investor, and you can only earn relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market volatility</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once said of Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance. He happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure\". Of course, Munger is not only so simple as focus, his focus is based on diverse thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing firms8. In that worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company inflicted serious damage on Munger's portfolio. The blue-chip printing company's sales exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decline, with sales plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing Company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure business \"\".</p><p>However, Blue Chip Printing Company, as an important asset of fund investment, later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but market value because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half of their true value.\" It was a tough experience — 1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant one. \"11 Munger was not alone, and it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrials fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even as the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost its biggest investor, frustrating him and leading him to the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund has earned a compounded return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its lifetime even through a brutal period of history from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will drop more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth are also likely to have a pullback/retracement at one point. The Dow has grown 26,400% since 1914, which contains nine pullback/retracement over 30%. The Dow fell more than 90% during the Great Depression and did not return to its 1929 high until 1955. The Dow Jones index, a blue-chip index, experienced two major pullback/retracement in the first decade of the twenty-first century (a 38% decline during the tech bubble and a 54% decline during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we are looking for a high return on our investment, huge losses are doomed to be a part of it, whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"we are passionate about keeping it simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it won't keep you away from losing money. Even portfolios with 50/50 equity and bond allocations lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, i.e. the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely had absolute losses. During his time running his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock has fallen more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, pullback/retracement is the downside from the high. In other words, it happened six times that Berkshire Hathaway fell more than 20% after hitting an all-time high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late nineties, when internet stocks took the country by storm, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also took their toll. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 is up 270% over the same period! In a 1999 Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern, and during the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns\".</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. In the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with the new world.</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has continued to compound over the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not geniuses. We can't play chess or become piano players blindfolded. But our achievements are excellent because we are dominant in temperament, which is enough to compensate for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, focus on ensuring that you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that stocks have fallen by more than 50% at one time, which will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and take on such situations in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand a loss of more than $30,000. Assuming that if the value of the stock is reduced in half and the bond will retain its value (which is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way even if those 60% of assets fall by half, you should be okay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment calmly?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment calmly?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-04 11:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good lesson: how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even in the face of losses and adversity. Today, I will share with you how Charlie Munger puts the pullback/retracement in investment in perspective.</p><p><b>Learn to bear losses</b></p><p><i><b>You need to have patience, discipline and the ability not to go crazy even in the face of loss and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charlie Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>Without a doubt, Netflix, Amazon, and Google are the three most successful companies of the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed the way we live, and if their shareholders can stick to their shares for a long time, these shareholders will also get huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial rules is that returns are always accompanied by risks. If you want to make a huge return on your investment, you are also doomed to take on the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual rate of return of 35.5%. This means that an initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 by today. But in reality, the difficulty of actually turning that $1,000 into $387,000 over the past 20 years cannot be underestimated. Three times in history, Amazon's share price has fallen by more than 50%. The first was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market capitalization. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would have fallen from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, a loss of $51,388.</p><p>This is why it is not simple to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Perhaps you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world,\" but even that won't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has a compound yield of 38% since it went public in May 2002. But achieving this gain is also almost beyond the investment discipline one can afford. Netflix's share price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This amounts to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Will investors really be able to live with their initial investment pullback/retracement more than thirty times? Especially the 500% gain disappeared in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual rate of return of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investment experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has fallen by more than 50% only once, when it fell by 65% between November 2017 and November 2018. A lot of investors couldn't stand this period when his stock price took a big pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover reached $845 billion, while Google's average market value at that time was less than $153 billion. That said, shares were changed hands 5.5 times during that time, which cost many investors the opportunity to earn 515% returns over the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies such as Amazon, Netflix and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have allowed him to earn huge investment returns have also seen huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, is known as a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His intelligent and philosophical quotes are collectively called Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think from multiple perspectives with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". \"People count too much and think too little,\" he said at Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 shareholder meeting.</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be drawn to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said \"We have three baskets, which are in, out, and too hard\". Investors should all follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than that?\".</p><p>Today, we have a lot of new products in the market that serve investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in trouble is as revealed by the following conversation I had with the tackle boss. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really get hooked for this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully develop a legal career. In the early years of Munger's investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His investing enthusiasm was ignited in 1959, the year Ed Davis introduced him to Buffett as his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to pay much attention to Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett resembles Charlie Munger, another investor Davis wholeheartedly trusts. The two of them were so similar that Davis once filled out Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off. After years of communication, learning, and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund firm (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% per annum before rates. 5 Especially when you look at it in combination with the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more valuable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500, including Dividend, has only gained 6.6% in the same time. For the entire 14 years of the fund's existence, Munger's average annual return was 24%, with a compound rate of return of 19.82%, much higher than the index, and the S&P 500 (including Dividend) compounded rate of return was only 5.2% during the same period. Munger's limited partners will be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains large losses in short-term stages. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be hard for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two, three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not a good investor, and you can only earn relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market volatility</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once said of Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance. He happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure\". Of course, Munger is not only so simple as focus, his focus is based on diverse thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its funds were invested in blue-chip printing firms8. In that worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company inflicted serious damage on Munger's portfolio. The blue-chip printing company's sales exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decline, with sales plummeting to $9 million by 1982 and only $25,000 by 2006. \"Considering the initial business of Blue Chip Printing Company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure business \"\".</p><p>However, Blue Chip Printing Company, as an important asset of fund investment, later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of truly undervalued value, but market value because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half of their true value.\" It was a tough experience — 1973 to 1974 was a very unpleasant one. \"11 Munger was not alone, and it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The bear market of 1973 to 1974, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrials fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even as the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost its biggest investor, frustrating him and leading him to the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund has earned a compounded return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its lifetime even through a brutal period of history from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will drop more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth are also likely to have a pullback/retracement at one point. The Dow has grown 26,400% since 1914, which contains nine pullback/retracement over 30%. The Dow fell more than 90% during the Great Depression and did not return to its 1929 high until 1955. The Dow Jones index, a blue-chip index, experienced two major pullback/retracement in the first decade of the twenty-first century (a 38% decline during the tech bubble and a 54% decline during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we are looking for a high return on our investment, huge losses are doomed to be a part of it, whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"we are passionate about keeping it simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it won't keep you away from losing money. Even portfolios with 50/50 equity and bond allocations lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, i.e. the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely had absolute losses. During his time running his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock has fallen more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, pullback/retracement is the downside from the high. In other words, it happened six times that Berkshire Hathaway fell more than 20% after hitting an all-time high.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late nineties, when internet stocks took the country by storm, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also took their toll. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 is up 270% over the same period! In a 1999 Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern, and during the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns\".</p><p>Whether you invest in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. In the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At the time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with the new world.</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has continued to compound over the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not geniuses. We can't play chess or become piano players blindfolded. But our achievements are excellent because we are dominant in temperament, which is enough to compensate for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. Losses are inevitable. Instead, focus on ensuring that you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that stocks have fallen by more than 50% at one time, which will undoubtedly happen again in the future, make sure you can face and take on such situations in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Let's say your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand a loss of more than $30,000. Assuming that if the value of the stock is reduced in half and the bond will retain its value (which is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way even if those 60% of assets fall by half, you should be okay.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce459771714478b4a71e62b2fef9a826","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129470422","content_text":"芒格作为伟大的投资导师，他的亲身经历给了我们很好的借鉴：如何真的拥有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格如何正确看待投资中的回撤。学会承受损失你需要有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。-查理.芒格，2005毫无疑问，奈飞、亚马逊和谷歌是过去十年中最成功的三个公司。他们的产品深刻地改变了我们生活方式，如果他们的股东能够长期坚持持有他们的股票，这些股东们也将获得巨大的投资收益。然而，最古老的一条金融法则之一就是收益永远和风险相伴。如果你想要获得巨大的投资收益，你也注定要承担相伴而来的风险。自1997年首次上市以来，亚马逊股价涨幅高达38600％，相当于年复合收益率35.5％。 这意味着初始1000美元的投资到今天将变为$ 387,000。 但实际上在过去20年中，要真的将这1000美金变为387,000美元的难度不容小觑。历史上，亚马逊的股价曾有三次跌幅超过50%。第一次是从1999年12月到2001年10月，它跌去了95％的市值。在那段时间内，初始假设的1,000美元投资将会从54,433美元的高位下跌至3,045美元，损失51,388美元。这也就是为什么会说能够买入并持有一个长期的赢家其实并不简单。也许你确实知道“亚马逊将会改变世界”，但即便如此，也不会使投资变得更加容易。另一家革命性的公司奈飞，自2002年5月上市以来的复合收益率为38％。但实现这个收益也几乎超出了人所能承受的投资纪律。奈飞的股价曾有四次跌幅超过50%，其在2011年7月至2012年9月间跌幅超过82%。这相当于初始投资的1,000美元涨到36,792美元，然后萎缩到6,629美元。投资者真的能够忍受他们的初始投资回撤三十多次吗？特别是500%收益在短短14个月内烟消云散！谷歌是这三家公司中最年轻的公司，自2004年上市以来的年复合收益率为25％。他为投资者提供了一个比持有亚马逊或Netflix更好的投资体验。 谷歌的股价只有一次跌幅超过50%，就是在2017年11月至2018年11月间跌幅达到65%。当他的股价大幅回撤时，很多投资都无法忍受这段时期。在这264天内，谷歌的换手量达到8450亿美金，而当时谷歌的平均市值不到1530亿美金。也就是说，这段时间内股票被换手了5.5次，这使很多投资者失去了未来八年能够获得515%回报的机会。查理芒格从来没有对投资亚马逊、奈飞、谷歌这类公司感过兴趣。但他长期投资过的那些让他获得巨大投资收益的公司也曾在短时期内出现过巨大的回撤。芒格，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的副董事长，以作为沃伦巴菲特的长期合作伙伴而闻名。他那些富有智慧和哲理的名言被统称为芒格主义。他喜欢用不同的思维方式从多个角度思考问题，他的名言之一是“如果知道我会死在哪里，那我将永远不去那个地方”。在2002年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上他说“人们算得太多、想得太少”。将芒格和我们大部分平庸的人区分开的一点是他永远不会被他能力圈外的投资所吸引。他曾经说过“我们有三个篮子，分别是进入、退出、太难” 。投资者都应该遵循他的建议“如果投资标的太难分析，我们就转向其他的投资标的。还有比这更简单的事情吗？” 。今天，我们的市场上涌现出很多为投资者服务的新产品，这些产品就像那些紫色和绿色的鱼饵：我想我们的投资管理之所以陷入窘境的原因就像下面这个我和渔具老板的对话所揭示的道理那样。我问他：“我的天，这些紫的和绿的鱼饵！鱼真的会因此而上钩吗？”，他说：“先生，我不卖鱼” 。1948年，芒格毕业于哈佛大学法学院，并追随其父亲的脚步成功的开拓了法律事业。在芒格的早期投资生涯中，他通过投资地产项目获得了他的第一个百万美元。1959年他的投资热情被彻底点燃，这一年埃德戴维斯（Ed Davis）作为巴菲特的第一批投资者将他介绍给了巴菲特。巴菲特惊讶于他很轻松的获得了埃德戴维斯的10万美金，因为戴维斯似乎并没有太在意巴菲特的投资策略。这其中的原因在于巴菲特很像戴维斯全心全意信任的另一位投资人查理芒格。他们两人如此之像以至于戴维斯曾经在给巴菲特的支票上填了芒格的名字。芒格和巴菲特一见如故。 在和巴菲特经过多年的沟通、相互学习和分享后，芒格在1962年和其他合伙人创办了一家律师事务所（Munger，Tolles＆Olson; 查理在1965年离开），同时他也创立了一个对冲基金公司（Wheeler，Munger＆Company）。芒格的投资业绩斐然。从1962年到1969年，该基金扣除费率之前的年均回报率达到令人难以置信的37.1％。5尤其是当你结合当时的市场环境看的话，这个成绩更是显的难能可贵。在这八年中，挑选股票并不是件简单的事情。 事实上，标准普尔500指数（含股息）在同一时间内只上涨了6.6％。 在整个基金存续的14年内，芒格年均回报率为24％，复合收益率为19.82％，远高于指数，同期标准普尔500指数（含股息）复合收益率仅为5.2％。 芒格的有限合伙人如果能和芒格一道坚持下来也将收益丰厚，然而这件事就像一直坚持持有亚马逊公司一样并不那么容易。投资者从过往历史中可以学到的最好一条经验就是没有坏时光就没有好时光。在一段长期的投资中往往蕴含着短期阶段性的大幅损失。如果你不能接受短期的损失，那你很难收获长期的市场回报。芒格说过：如果你对于在一个世纪内发生两三次或者更多次市场超过50%下跌不能泰然处之，你就不适合做投资，并且和那些具有能理性处理市场波动的投资者相比也只能获得相对平庸的投资收益。沃伦巴菲特曾这样评价芒格：“他愿意接受业绩出现更大的起伏，他恰好是一位心理结构倾向集中的人”。当然芒格不仅是专注这么简单，他的专注是建立在更高层面上的多元化思考。 1974年底，其61％的资金投资于蓝筹印花公司8。在那个自大萧条以来最糟糕的熊市里，这个公司给芒格的投资组合带来了严重的损害。 蓝筹印花公司的销售额在当年超过了1.24亿美金。但是很快就开始减少，到1982年，销售额锐减至900万美元，到2006年仅为2.5万美金。 “考虑到蓝筹印花公司的初始业务，“我预测到其销售额将从1.2亿美金降到不足10万美金，所以我从开始就预测到了其业务单独看几乎就是一个会失败的业务””。然而蓝筹印花公司作为基金投资的重要的资产，在之后为收购喜诗糖果、布法罗晚报和韦斯科金融公司等提供了大量的资金，并于1983年被纳入伯克希尔哈撒韦公司旗下。芒格在1973年损失了31.9％（相比之下，道琼斯工业指数为-13.1％），在1974年损失了31.5％（相比之下道琼斯指数为-23.1％）。 芒格说：“我们在1973年到1974年间被市场碾压了，并不是因为被真实低估的价值，而是市场价值，因为我们的公开交易证券不得不在低于他们真正价值的一半价格下交易。 “这是一段艰难的经历 -- 1973年至1974年是一个非常不愉快的经历。”11芒格并不孤单，对许多伟大的投资者来说，这都是一个很艰难的过程。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司从1972年12月的80美元跌至1974年12月的40美元。1973年至1974年的熊市标准普尔500指数下跌50％（道琼斯工业指数下跌46.6％，直接回到1958年的水平）。与查理芒格一起从1973年1月1日开始投资的1,000美元到1975年1月1日将变为467美元。即使该基金在1975年上涨了73.2%，但芒格还是失去了其最大的投资人，这让他感到沮丧，并使他做出了清算基金的决定。这只基金在其整个生命周期即使经历了从1973年到1974年的残酷历史时期也获得了扣费前24.3%的复合收益率。不仅仅是那些明星股票会跌幅超过50%。那些长期复合增长的指数在某一个点上也都可能会发生回撤。道琼斯指数自1914年以来增长了26400%，其中包含了9次超过30%的回撤。在大萧条期间道指跌幅超过90%，直到1955年才回到1929年的那个高点。道琼斯指数作为蓝筹股指数在二十一世纪的第一个十年内就发生过两次大幅回撤（科技泡沫破灭期跌幅38%，金融危机期间跌幅54%）。对于像你我这样大多数普通的投资者而言，如果我们要寻求高额的投资回报，那么巨大亏损注定也是其中的一个部分，无论投资周期是几年还是一生。芒格曾经说过“我们热衷于保持简单” 。你可以简化你想要的一切，但这并不会使你远离亏损。即使是50/50的股票和债券配置的投资组合在金融危机期间也损失了25%。有几种方法来处理损失。第一是损失是绝对的，即你的投资损失。在芒格的例子里，他很少有绝对损失。在他管理他的对冲基金期间，他经历过53%的下跌，他持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票有过6次跌幅超过20%。对于不熟悉的人来说，回撤就是从高点开始的下行。换句话说，伯克希尔哈撒韦创历史新高后下跌超过20%的情况发生了6次。第二种类型的损失是相对的，即你的机会成本。 在九十年代末期，当互联网股票席卷全国时，伯克希尔并没有对其进行投资。这也让他们付出了代价。 从1998年6月到2000年3月，伯克希尔下跌了49%。 然而更痛苦的是，互联网股票在持续飙升。同期纳斯达克100指数上涨了270％！ 在1999年伯克希尔哈撒韦致股东的信中，沃伦巴菲特写道“相对收益是我们关心的问题，在同期，不好的相对收益造成了并不令人满意的绝对收益”。无论你是投资股票还是指数，不好的相对收益都是投资中要面对的一个问题。在五年的互联网泡沫中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的收益表现落后于标准普尔500指数117％！当时很多人质疑芒格和巴菲特是否脱节与新世界。芒格的财富之所以能够在过去55年内持续复合增长的原因，用他自己的话说就是：沃伦和我并非奇才。我们不能蒙上眼睛下棋或成为钢琴演奏家。但我们的成绩斐然，因为我们在性情上占优势，这足以弥补我们在智商上的不足 。你必须能对损失泰然处之。合适的卖时点并不是在股价已经下跌之后。如果你这样投资，你可能就注定了不会取得好的长期回报。 从历史中学习，不要试图避免损失。 损失是不可避免的。相反，应该专注于确保没有把自己会被迫卖出的境地。如果你知道股票曾经跌幅超过50%，这种情况无疑将来还会发生，请确保你未来能面对和承担这样的情况。如何做？这里有个例子。假设你的投资组合价值10万美元并且你知道你不能忍受超过3万美元的损失。假设如果股票价值减少一半而债券将保留价值（这绝对是一个假设，没有任何保证），那就不要配置超过60%的股票资产。那样即使这60%的资产下跌一半，你也应该还好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365767695,"gmtCreate":1614781624317,"gmtModify":1704775148932,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark","listText":"Mark","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365767695","repostId":"365332655","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":365332655,"gmtCreate":1614696092777,"gmtModify":1704774161652,"author":{"id":"3507927418932492","authorId":"3507927418932492","name":"扯个犊子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1a05065b5e524f452b72c601018fd5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507927418932492","authorIdStr":"3507927418932492"},"themes":[],"title":"GME衝到800？先了解什麼是Gamma Squeeze！","htmlText":"扯個犢子 021寫在最前：這次<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$遊戲驛站(GME)$</a>&nbsp;等股票的史詩級逼空帶給我等屁民的價值是無與倫比的，無論這次結果如何，我認爲通過這次機會所學到的東西都是寶貴的。無論這次是賺錢了還是虧錢了，能夠學到東西就沒白費功夫。坦白講，我自己對於市場的理解也處在十分業餘的階段，很多知識也都是最近一段時間才慢慢學習起來的，所以這篇扯犢子的內容也算是我查閱了很多資料過後的現學現賣，希望能對大家對於很多概念的理解有所幫助。在扯個犢子017《散戶與機構的世紀大戰–遊戲驛站》中，我簡要的解釋了Short Squeeze（軋空）的概念，即市場上大部分流通股都被做空者做空時，一旦股價迅速上升導致空頭強行平倉，進而進一步推高股價形成一個循環。Gamma Squeeze（我們暫且叫它“伽馬軋空”）是繼“軋空”之後又一個挺新鮮的名詞，要搞清楚這個概念，需要一些基礎知識做鋪墊：1. Gamma是什麼？首先“Gamma”是一個與期權價格相關的參數。首先，要知道期權的價格是隨着相應正股的價格而變動的，這個變動一級相關性稱作“Delta”，數值在0-1之間波動。如上圖所示，delta隨着正股股價的變動呈一個“S”型函數，股價越接近行權價（Strike price），Delta越接近0.5，一般稱爲“中性delta”。打個比方，股票A的在某個行權價的call的delta是0.7，就代表股價每漲1塊錢，這個call的價格就漲大約0.7塊錢（這裏用“大約”是因爲隨着股價變動，delta也會有變化，所以並不是嚴格的0.7塊錢，而是比0.7稍微大那麼一點點）。Gamma就是對Delta這個函數求導（這裏需要高中數學的一些知識哈），所以Gamma的變化曲線比較類似一個正態分佈，如下圖藍色曲線所示：物理比較","listText":"扯個犢子 021寫在最前：這次<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$遊戲驛站(GME)$</a>&nbsp;等股票的史詩級逼空帶給我等屁民的價值是無與倫比的，無論這次結果如何，我認爲通過這次機會所學到的東西都是寶貴的。無論這次是賺錢了還是虧錢了，能夠學到東西就沒白費功夫。坦白講，我自己對於市場的理解也處在十分業餘的階段，很多知識也都是最近一段時間才慢慢學習起來的，所以這篇扯犢子的內容也算是我查閱了很多資料過後的現學現賣，希望能對大家對於很多概念的理解有所幫助。在扯個犢子017《散戶與機構的世紀大戰–遊戲驛站》中，我簡要的解釋了Short Squeeze（軋空）的概念，即市場上大部分流通股都被做空者做空時，一旦股價迅速上升導致空頭強行平倉，進而進一步推高股價形成一個循環。Gamma Squeeze（我們暫且叫它“伽馬軋空”）是繼“軋空”之後又一個挺新鮮的名詞，要搞清楚這個概念，需要一些基礎知識做鋪墊：1. Gamma是什麼？首先“Gamma”是一個與期權價格相關的參數。首先，要知道期權的價格是隨着相應正股的價格而變動的，這個變動一級相關性稱作“Delta”，數值在0-1之間波動。如上圖所示，delta隨着正股股價的變動呈一個“S”型函數，股價越接近行權價（Strike price），Delta越接近0.5，一般稱爲“中性delta”。打個比方，股票A的在某個行權價的call的delta是0.7，就代表股價每漲1塊錢，這個call的價格就漲大約0.7塊錢（這裏用“大約”是因爲隨着股價變動，delta也會有變化，所以並不是嚴格的0.7塊錢，而是比0.7稍微大那麼一點點）。Gamma就是對Delta這個函數求導（這裏需要高中數學的一些知識哈），所以Gamma的變化曲線比較類似一個正態分佈，如下圖藍色曲線所示：物理比較","text":"扯個犢子 021寫在最前：這次$遊戲驛站(GME)$ 等股票的史詩級逼空帶給我等屁民的價值是無與倫比的，無論這次結果如何，我認爲通過這次機會所學到的東西都是寶貴的。無論這次是賺錢了還是虧錢了，能夠學到東西就沒白費功夫。坦白講，我自己對於市場的理解也處在十分業餘的階段，很多知識也都是最近一段時間才慢慢學習起來的，所以這篇扯犢子的內容也算是我查閱了很多資料過後的現學現賣，希望能對大家對於很多概念的理解有所幫助。在扯個犢子017《散戶與機構的世紀大戰–遊戲驛站》中，我簡要的解釋了Short Squeeze（軋空）的概念，即市場上大部分流通股都被做空者做空時，一旦股價迅速上升導致空頭強行平倉，進而進一步推高股價形成一個循環。Gamma Squeeze（我們暫且叫它“伽馬軋空”）是繼“軋空”之後又一個挺新鮮的名詞，要搞清楚這個概念，需要一些基礎知識做鋪墊：1. Gamma是什麼？首先“Gamma”是一個與期權價格相關的參數。首先，要知道期權的價格是隨着相應正股的價格而變動的，這個變動一級相關性稱作“Delta”，數值在0-1之間波動。如上圖所示，delta隨着正股股價的變動呈一個“S”型函數，股價越接近行權價（Strike price），Delta越接近0.5，一般稱爲“中性delta”。打個比方，股票A的在某個行權價的call的delta是0.7，就代表股價每漲1塊錢，這個call的價格就漲大約0.7塊錢（這裏用“大約”是因爲隨着股價變動，delta也會有變化，所以並不是嚴格的0.7塊錢，而是比0.7稍微大那麼一點點）。Gamma就是對Delta這個函數求導（這裏需要高中數學的一些知識哈），所以Gamma的變化曲線比較類似一個正態分佈，如下圖藍色曲線所示：物理比較","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbac3888b603129cb608ec87fce8aba4","width":"365","height":"315"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed3ac9e736bf4082f6b2a7b9fe483fb","width":"688","height":"428"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5085078374719adf7666d68701b8c0f","width":"688","height":"410"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365332655","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365407272,"gmtCreate":1614767067796,"gmtModify":1704774947954,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548456177993691","authorIdStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365407272","repostId":"1184749480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184749480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614751802,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184749480?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 14:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Risks and opportunities brought by the acceleration of US Treasury yields","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184749480","media":" 招商银行研究","summary":"■为何需要关注美债利率的变动：年初至今，美债10Y利率强势突破1.5%，上行幅度已超过60BP，利率曲线也正加速陡峭化。美债利率作为全球最重要的无风险利率，是大类资产定价的锚之一。而利率背后所隐含的市","content":"<p><b>■ Why we need to pay attention to the changes in US Treasury yields:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds has strongly exceeded 1.5%, with an upward margin of more than 60BP, and the interest rate curve is also accelerating steepening. As the most important risk-free interest rate in the world, US Treasury yields is one of the anchors for pricing large classes of assets. The market's expectations for macroeconomy and policies implied behind interest rates will also be reflected in other assets. Therefore, how the interest rate will be deducted in the future and what impact it will have on large classes of assets will be one of the key issues that need to be clarified in asset allocation this year.</p><p><b>■ Future trend of US Treasury yields: We believe that the upward trend of US Treasury yields will continue, and it may hit the position of 1.8%-2.0% during the year.</b>In terms of rhythm, we believe that the boost of the vaccine to the economy will gradually appear from Q1-Q2 and be maximized in Q3-Q4, when both the economic recovery and the expectation of the early exit of extraordinary monetary policy will rise significantly. Therefore, although the nominal growth rate of the United States weakened year-on-year due to the base effect in the second half of the year, it is expected that US Treasury yields will still be able to maintain a volatile upward trend.</p><p><b>■ Transmission of upward interest rate to large asset classes:</b>The trend of higher interest rates generally reflects the economic cycle of recovery, overheating or stagflation, and large assets need to be allocated along these three macro scenarios. During the period of economic recovery and overheating, risk assets (industrial commodities, equity) tend to perform better than safe-haven assets (bonds, gold); In the period of economic stagflation, commodity assets that benefit from inflation are often stronger than equity and bond assets, and the market is prone to the situation of \"double killing of stocks and bonds\". That is to say, the macro and policy environment behind the long-term interest rate is different, and the direction of impact on large assets will also be different.</p><p><b>■ Impact of rising interest rates on major asset classes:</b>We believe that the trend of continued trading recovery in overseas capital markets and reinflation will not change, and the performance of risky assets will be stronger than that of safe-haven assets.<b>China's Treasury Bond: The upside of interest rates is limited, and Q2-Q3 may gradually top.</b>The upward range and rate of ChinaBond interest rate are relatively limited compared with that of U.S. debt, and ChinaBond interest rate is also expected to gradually peak in Q2-Q3.<b>Foreign exchange: The weak US dollar has a limited duration, and the RMB is strong first and then weak.</b>The logic of some bullish dollars has been gradually established, and the duration of weak dollars is expected to be limited. The US dollar index may be expected to bottom out and rebound this year, and the RMB will also be strong first and then weak.<b>Gold: The real interest rate has been repaired upward, reducing the proportion of gold allocation.</b>The logic that the low US dollar real interest rate drives the gold price upward has been destroyed, and it is recommended to reduce the allocation ratio of gold.<b>Equity: If U.S. stocks pull back at a high level, it should be a short-term behavior, which has an emotional impact on A shares.</b>If the interest rate of U.S. bonds continues to rise, U.S. stocks may see a periodic correction, but its strong trend has not been broken. In addition, the short-term decline of US stocks will have a negative impact on A shares, and this risk needs attention.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>US Treasury yields accelerates upward triggering high market volatility</b></p><p>As the U.S. economy gradually switches from \"COVID-19 recession\" to \"recovery\", the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt has risen synchronously. Since the beginning of the year, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds has strongly exceeded 1.5%, with an upward margin of more than 60BP, and the interest rate curve is also accelerating steepening.</p><p>At the same time, the rising interest rate has also brought a series of ripple effects, including the decline of gold and the weak rebound of the US dollar. In addition, whether U.S. stocks, whose valuation is already on the expensive side, will fall at a high level due to rising interest rates has also become a topic that the market begins to worry about.</p><p>As the most important risk-free interest rate in the world, US Treasury yields will affect U.S. stocks, exchange rates, commodities, bonds and other assets through valuation, interest rate spreads, financing costs, etc., and is one of the anchors of global asset pricing. The market's expectations for macroeconomy and policies implied behind interest rates will also be reflected in other assets. Therefore, how the US Treasury yields will be interpreted in the future and what impact it will have on other major classes of assets will be one of the key issues that need to be clarified in asset allocation this year.</p><p><b>Figure 1: The 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds keeps breaking upward, and the interest rate curve is accelerating steepening</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472ed8a62d0c8800f6eaf07e542de162\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Forward Outlook: Interest rates will continue to oscillate upward</b></p><p>We believe that the logic of the trend of US Treasury yields comes from the following three aspects:</p><p>First, the U.S. economy is in a recovery quadrant. As the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy gradually faded, the US economy has entered the path of weak recovery since the second half of last year, and US Treasury yields has also opened a slow upward channel since August last year. In addition, the large-scale vaccination of vaccines has been steadily advanced globally at the end of last year, while the United States is a \"top student\" in vaccination, and the economic recovery is expected to heat up further, which has also driven the accelerated upward trend of US Treasury yields.</p><p><b>Figure 2: U.S. PMI has been repaired from last April's 'pit bottom'</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5132045b337e04b6536de66b1c689699\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"706\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 3: COVID-19 vaccination per 100 people: Vaccination is progressing steadily, and the vaccination rate in the United States is much higher than that in key European countries (except the United Kingdom)</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f545da9ca448bbc8d4dd8409ef4c933d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"692\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>Second, the reconstruction of reinflation expectations. Last year, after experiencing the shock of negative oil prices, U.S. inflation was knocked to a rock bottom. However, with the gradual recovery of the demand side and the extremely loose monetary liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve, the United States has also started the pace of rebuilding reinflation. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of crude oil, nonferrous metals and other industrial commodities have continuously broken through the upward trend, which has also guided the inflation expectation in the market to further rise, and at the same time, it has also promoted the acceleration of the US Treasury yields.</p><p>Third, the intensification of expectations of large-scale fiscal stimulus. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. government has launched four rounds of fiscal stimulus packages totaling nearly $4 trillion, which have played a crucial role in the post-epidemic economic recovery. In addition, at the beginning of this year, after the Democratic Party achieved the \"Blue Sweep\" in both houses of Congress, it basically removed the obstacles in the legislative path of the Biden administration, and the market began to factor in the expectation of larger fiscal expenditure, which will not only bring negative pressure on U.S. debt from the supply side, but also strengthen the logic of economic recovery and reinflation, and further push up interest rates.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Commodities such as crude oil guide inflation expectations upward</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06ee3b54249eb764ca8f5abfe3b5813\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"669\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 5: 'Keynesianism' Returns, U.S. Government Spending Surges</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874fd23d8b2f864370403890793086df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\"><span>Source: Pew Research Center, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the upward trend of US Treasury yields will continue, and it may hit the position of 1.8%-2.0% during the year. In terms of rhythm, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. GDP and inflation will tend to fall after reaching its peak in Q2. However, due to the low base factor, the year-on-year index has \"statistical problems\" this year, and its referenceability has become weaker. Therefore, we believe that the decline of year-on-year indicators can't represent the actual shrinkage of economic demand, and the US Treasury yields may not show a synchronous decline near the middle of the year.</p><p>Against the background of weakening the guiding role of year-on-year indicators, the operation of real economic activities may be more affected by the vaccination process. According to the universal vaccination plan announced by the United States (universal vaccination will be achieved in the third quarter of 2021), we believe that the boost of vaccines to the economy will gradually appear from Q1-Q2 and be maximized in Q3-Q4, when both the economic recovery and the expectation of early withdrawal of extraordinary monetary policy will increase significantly. Therefore, although the nominal growth rate of the United States weakened year-on-year due to the base effect in the second half of the year, it is expected that US Treasury yields will still be able to maintain a volatile upward trend.</p><p><b>Figure 6: U.S. economic activity repair will be S-shaped</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44443c8134be4c2ae936531c6d571620\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"><span>Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 7: 2021 U.S. GDP will peak in the second quarter year-over-year</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab6e6180db5176ccb49defa9253e8d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>Source: Fred, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Asset Allocation: The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Large Asset Classes</b></p><p><b>(1) Transmission of rising interest rates to major assets</b></p><p>As the mapping of macro environment and liquidity, US Treasury yields is one of the anchors of global asset pricing, and its operation direction and change speed will guide or affect other asset classes.</p><p>If the interest rate enters an upward cycle, the macro environment reflected behind it often corresponds to economic recovery, inflation recovery or liquidity tightening. The three scenarios may not appear at the same time, but the tightening of liquidity often requires economic recovery or upward inflation as the background board. That is to say, the trend of higher interest rates generally reflects the economic cycle of recovery, overheating or stagflation, and large assets need to be allocated along these three macro scenarios. During the period of economic recovery and overheating, risk assets (industrial commodities, equity) tend to perform better than safe-haven assets (bonds, gold); In the period of economic stagflation, commodity assets that benefit from inflation are often stronger than equity and bond assets, and the market is prone to the situation of \"double killing of stocks and bonds\".</p><p>For example, from 2016 to 2018, the U.S. economy and inflation both entered an upward period, while the Federal Reserve also tightened its monetary policy (rate hike and shrinking balance sheet), and the market transactions recovered logically. At that time, while the long-term interest rate rose, risk assets such as US stocks and industrial products all performed well, while safe-haven assets such as gold performed poorly; During the first oil crisis from 1973 to 1974, the U.S. economy experienced a typical period of stagflation. Long-term interest rates rose sharply driven by hyperinflation, and large asset classes showed a typical situation of commodity strength and equity decline.</p><p>That is to say, the long-term interest rate is the market expression of the economy, inflation premium and liquidity. The macro and policy environments behind it are different, and the direction of impact on large assets will also be different.</p><p>In addition, it should be noted that if the long-term interest rate rises too quickly in the short term and the market has a strong tightening expectation, it may have a periodic negative impact on risk assets such as equity from the perspective of valuation, which will be elaborated in the equity section below.</p><p><b>Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Major Assets</b></p><p>To be clear, behind this round of rising interest rates is the recovery of the market pricing economy and the expectation of reinflation, and liquidity has not been substantially tightened. Therefore, we believe that the trend of continued trading recovery and reinflation in the global capital market will not change, and the overall performance of risk assets will be stronger than that of safe-haven assets.</p><p><b>1. China's Treasury Bond: The upside of interest rates is limited, and Q2-Q3 may gradually top</b></p><p>After the financial crisis, although the 10Y Treasury Bond interest rates between China and the United States occasionally differentiated, the overall trend was consistent, which implied the synchronization of the economic cycle between China and the United States. Since the beginning of the year, the rising interest rates of U.S. bonds and ChinaBond are all market manifestations of the continuation of economic recovery, the rapid rise of inflation expectations and the tightening of liquidity margin (more reflected in ChinaBond). The recent rapid rise in US Treasury yields has also put upward pressure on ChinaBond interest rate from the perspective of emotion. Therefore, in the short term, under the background that the US Treasury yields will continue to rise, the long-term interest rate of ChinaBond as a whole is easy to rise but difficult to fall.</p><p><b>Figure 8: ChinaBond Interest Rate and US Treasury yields Recently Shown Synchronous Upward Trends</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ad46b23d006dda166ad3e0d8615300d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"656\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to the differences in the pace and space of recovery between China and the United States this year, we believe that the upward rate and rate of ChinaBond interest rate are relatively limited compared with those of U.S. debt, and ChinaBond interest rate is also expected to gradually peak in Q2-Q3.</p><p>First of all, although this year is the first year of post-epidemic recovery, it is expected that the overall recovery space of China's economy will be relatively limited, and the negative impact on ChinaBond will be relatively small. At the same time, as China's economy led the world in recovery last year, and vaccination has little marginal pulling force on China's economy, it may be different from the recovery pace of overseas economies, and ChinaBond interest rate may also appear to peak ahead of US Treasury yields. In view of the fact that we believe that the real operation pattern of China's economy (according to the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter observation) will show a downward inflection point in Q4, the interest rate of ChinaBond is also expected to gradually peak near Q2-Q3.</p><p>In addition, although the inflation expectations of China and the United States have risen in the near future, there is a certain degree of differentiation and difference. China's CPI is more affected by the fluctuation of pig prices and food prices. In the downward stage of the pig cycle, the inflationary pressure measured by CPI this year is expected to be small, and the constraints on monetary policy will be small.</p><p>Finally, although the upward shock of US Treasury yields will have an emotional impact on ChinaBond to some extent, considering that the interest rate difference between China and the United States is still wide, the safety cushion transmitted by US Treasury yields to ChinaBond is high, and the guiding force for ChinaBond is expected to be relatively limited.</p><p><b>2. Foreign exchange: The duration of the weak US dollar is limited, and the RMB is strong first and then weak</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the rapid rise of US Treasury yields has driven the interest rate spread between the United States and Europe to rise significantly, and the US Dollar Index has therefore seen a weak rebound.</p><p>The change of the US dollar is a relative concept, which reflects more of the evolution of \"the difference between the United States and Europe\". US Treasury yields often affects the trend of the US Dollar Index by guiding the interest rate spread between the United States and Europe. However, it should be noted that there are many factors that affect the US index. In addition to the consideration of interest rates, it is also necessary to make a comprehensive judgment based on factors such as economic poverty between the United States and Europe, monetary policy poverty, double deficit and market risk appetite.</p><p><b>Figure 9: US-Europe spread upward</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f12f0726508fd28890699b3fc251b516\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 10: The scissors gap between the United States and Europe has narrowed sharply</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e649c0371693b08cadafd5e662dd7a62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"672\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>First of all, we believe that the upward trend of U.S. debt and European debt interest rates has been established. However, considering that the United States can recover its economy faster after the large-scale vaccination, the upward speed and magnitude of US Treasury yields are expected to be higher than those of European debt, and the upward trend of the interest rate spread between the United States and Europe will be dominated by U.S. debt, which is good for the U.S. dollar. However, it should be noted that there is indeed trend consistency between the US Dollar Index and the spread between the United States and Europe, but it is not completely synchronized. That is to say, although the interest rate spread between the United States and Europe has an upward turning point, it does not necessarily mean that the turning point of the US dollar will also appear simultaneously. Opening a strong US dollar requires the cooperation and strengthening of other favorable factors.</p><p>Secondly, the scissors gap between the US and Europe has narrowed sharply this year, and the vaccination rate in the US is much higher than that in major European countries (except the UK). In other words, last year's bad epidemic logic of \"Europe is strong and the United States is weak\" has been gradually broken, which will also bring support to the US dollar.</p><p>However, it should be noted that although the recent rebound in the US Dollar Index is traceable, the overall range is limited, indicating that the market is still limited by some negative factors. For example, although the market has given the United States a high economic recovery expectation at present, it has not been verified in economic data (at present, the European PMI data is still on the strong side). In addition, the central banks of the United States and Europe both emphasize the \"loose tone\", and the differentiated characteristics of monetary policy are not obvious. In addition, the \"double deficit\" problem caused by large-scale fiscal expenditure in the United States and the logic of higher global risk appetite have a drag on the US Dollar Index occasionally.</p><p><b>Figure 11: Higher size of the US double deficit</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ade0ab5e8a4e17e7cfd74f09b10d3c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 12: Europe's February PMI data is still on the strong side</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28049285a1b9d751d0b50e8693065812\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>Generally speaking, because some factors that are negative for the US dollar may not dissipate in the short term, it is difficult for us to judge that the rebound of the US dollar since the beginning of the year has formed an inflection point from bear to bull. However, the logic of some bullish dollars has been gradually established, and the duration of weak dollars is expected to be limited. the US Dollar Index may be expected to bottom out and rebound this year.</p><p>For RMB, considering that the interest rate difference between China and the United States will gradually narrow this year, China's \"leading\" advantage in economic recovery will be reduced, and the supporting force for RMB exchange rate will be weakened. At the same time, considering that the US dollar is expected to turn from bear to bull this year, it is expected that the RMB will also show a strong and then weak shape.</p><p><b>3. Gold: Real interest rate repairs upward, reducing the proportion of gold allocation</b></p><p>For gold, the change of the real interest rate of U.S. bonds is the core factor affecting its pricing. For most of the time from August last year to now, the upward trend of the nominal interest rate of U.S. debt was more contributed by inflation expectations, and the real interest rate remained relatively low. However, a key change in recent times is that with the steady progress of vaccination process, the tension of superimposing the global epidemic has eased, the expectation of economic recovery has been strengthened, the contribution of real interest rates to nominal interest rates has increased, and gold has also fallen under significant pressure.</p><p>Looking forward to the future, with the widespread use of vaccines, while strengthening the \"recovery expectation\", the market will gradually price the expectation of the gradual withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy. The nominal interest rate and inflation of U.S. debt will be further pushed up, while the real interest rate may continue to gradually recover from the deep negative pit, and the logic that the low dollar real interest rate drives the gold price upward has been destroyed. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce the allocation ratio of gold, and investors can also consider the value-preserving strategy as the main idea, such as allocating value-preserving bullish gold.</p><p><b>Figure 13: The contribution of real interest rates to nominal interest rates begins to increase</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9364538bb645666d7d69976e2cb845a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 14: Gold follows the upward trend of real interest rates and falls</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50be8211db948d2cfccbafa1ad9db85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>4. Equity: If U.S. stocks pull back at a high level, it should be a short-term behavior, which has an emotional impact on A shares</b></p><p>As interest rates continue to rise, the market gradually begins to worry that U.S. stocks will be under continuous valuation pressure and even fall sharply. However, by sorting out the historical data (after the financial crisis), US stocks will indeed have a downward impact due to the rapid rise of interest rates, but the magnitude and duration of this decline are relatively limited, and US stocks have also returned to the upward channel after the callback. Therefore, only taking the upward trend of US Treasury yields as the logic of U.S. stocks entering a bear market, we think it is too thin and lacks data support.</p><p>Judging from historical data, in recent years, the short-term decline of U.S. stocks due to the rise of U.S. bond interest rates appeared in 2013 and 2018 respectively.</p><p>In May, 2013, Bernanke released the QE reduction signal, which triggered a \"Taper Tantrum\" in the market. While US Treasury yields rushed rapidly, it also had a periodic negative impact on US stocks. The S&P 500 index fell by nearly 6% in this impact, which lasted for about one month, and then returned to the upward trend again.</p><p>At the beginning of 2018, due to the strong optimistic expectation of the Federal Reserve for the economic outlook, it released a hawkish signal that exceeded expectations, which strengthened the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would have multiple rate hike throughout the year. As a result, the US Treasury yields rose rapidly, and the S&P 500 plunged sharply during this period, with an overall decline of 10%, which lasted for about half a month, and then returned to the upward trend again.</p><p><b>Figure 15: Taper panic in 2013, U.S. stocks fell in stages</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61eb1da7e798e439112a88d8e13e5cee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 16: The Fed's hawkish attitude in 2018 led to a staged decline in U.S. stocks</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbcae1910fac7809ac093586167a721e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"676\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>If the short-term impact is thrown away, in fact, since the financial crisis, the upward trend of US Treasury yields has often been synchronized with the trend of US stocks.</p><p>The reasons are, first of all, that the world has entered an era of low inflation, and the logical chain from liquidity tightening and profit expectation to equity decline caused by stagflation has rarely appeared in the past decade. In recent years, the upward trend of long-term interest rates has been driven more by economic recovery or inflation repair. That is to say, although the upward interest rate will have a negative impact on the valuation side of the stock market, the improvement of profit expectations has digested this part of the loss, and US stocks and US Treasury yields have therefore shown a synchronous upward trend.</p><p>Secondly, since the financial crisis, every tightening action of the Federal Reserve has been relatively \"moderate\", and the expectation management and communication of the market have been relatively sufficient, which has brought low pressure on the comprehensive valuation of the market, and almost all the market declines caused by excessive liquidity have become \"short-term behaviors\".</p><p>Therefore, for U.S. stocks with high valuation at present, if the interest rate of U.S. debt continues to rise rapidly due to the expected repair of inflation or the release of marginal tightening expectation by the Federal Reserve, we do not rule out that there will be a periodic correction in U.S. stocks, and trading investors need to pay attention to the high volatility risk. However, under the background of global resonance recovery, the certainty of overseas equity markets has strengthened, and it is expected that U.S. stocks will continue to return to the strong range after periodic disturbances.</p><p><b>Figure 17: Since the financial crisis, the upward trend of US Treasury yields tends to synchronize with the upward trend of U.S. stocks</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1679bfd726ae32a5188aad278119b2c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>For A-shares, if US stocks fall in stages because of rising interest rates, A-shares will also be negatively affected by emotion. This risk needs attention. However, in the medium-term trend, the future trend of A shares still needs to return to the judgment of its own fundamentals and domestic monetary policy.</p><p>In addition, under the background of rising inflation expectations, although the market liquidity expectations are relatively cautious, some cyclical industries (nonferrous metals, steel, etc.) directly affected by the price increase of upstream raw materials are expected to benefit from the logic of improved profit expectations and have an upward share price. At the same time, the market performance in late February has been confirmed, and there has been an obvious style switching phenomenon in the A-share market, that is, the hot stocks (such as food and beverage, leisure services, etc.) with strong performance in the early stage have fallen significantly, while the cyclical sectors (such as steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, architectural decoration, etc.) have risen significantly. Looking forward, although it is difficult to say that the funds are loose, the upward trend of inflation may continue, which is still expected to provide a good environment for the performance of procyclical industries to a certain extent.</p>","source":"lsy1583142898250","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Risks and opportunities brought by the acceleration of US Treasury yields</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRisks and opportunities brought by the acceleration of US Treasury yields\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 招商银行研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-03 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>■ Why we need to pay attention to the changes in US Treasury yields:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds has strongly exceeded 1.5%, with an upward margin of more than 60BP, and the interest rate curve is also accelerating steepening. As the most important risk-free interest rate in the world, US Treasury yields is one of the anchors for pricing large classes of assets. The market's expectations for macroeconomy and policies implied behind interest rates will also be reflected in other assets. Therefore, how the interest rate will be deducted in the future and what impact it will have on large classes of assets will be one of the key issues that need to be clarified in asset allocation this year.</p><p><b>■ Future trend of US Treasury yields: We believe that the upward trend of US Treasury yields will continue, and it may hit the position of 1.8%-2.0% during the year.</b>In terms of rhythm, we believe that the boost of the vaccine to the economy will gradually appear from Q1-Q2 and be maximized in Q3-Q4, when both the economic recovery and the expectation of the early exit of extraordinary monetary policy will rise significantly. Therefore, although the nominal growth rate of the United States weakened year-on-year due to the base effect in the second half of the year, it is expected that US Treasury yields will still be able to maintain a volatile upward trend.</p><p><b>■ Transmission of upward interest rate to large asset classes:</b>The trend of higher interest rates generally reflects the economic cycle of recovery, overheating or stagflation, and large assets need to be allocated along these three macro scenarios. During the period of economic recovery and overheating, risk assets (industrial commodities, equity) tend to perform better than safe-haven assets (bonds, gold); In the period of economic stagflation, commodity assets that benefit from inflation are often stronger than equity and bond assets, and the market is prone to the situation of \"double killing of stocks and bonds\". That is to say, the macro and policy environment behind the long-term interest rate is different, and the direction of impact on large assets will also be different.</p><p><b>■ Impact of rising interest rates on major asset classes:</b>We believe that the trend of continued trading recovery in overseas capital markets and reinflation will not change, and the performance of risky assets will be stronger than that of safe-haven assets.<b>China's Treasury Bond: The upside of interest rates is limited, and Q2-Q3 may gradually top.</b>The upward range and rate of ChinaBond interest rate are relatively limited compared with that of U.S. debt, and ChinaBond interest rate is also expected to gradually peak in Q2-Q3.<b>Foreign exchange: The weak US dollar has a limited duration, and the RMB is strong first and then weak.</b>The logic of some bullish dollars has been gradually established, and the duration of weak dollars is expected to be limited. The US dollar index may be expected to bottom out and rebound this year, and the RMB will also be strong first and then weak.<b>Gold: The real interest rate has been repaired upward, reducing the proportion of gold allocation.</b>The logic that the low US dollar real interest rate drives the gold price upward has been destroyed, and it is recommended to reduce the allocation ratio of gold.<b>Equity: If U.S. stocks pull back at a high level, it should be a short-term behavior, which has an emotional impact on A shares.</b>If the interest rate of U.S. bonds continues to rise, U.S. stocks may see a periodic correction, but its strong trend has not been broken. In addition, the short-term decline of US stocks will have a negative impact on A shares, and this risk needs attention.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>US Treasury yields accelerates upward triggering high market volatility</b></p><p>As the U.S. economy gradually switches from \"COVID-19 recession\" to \"recovery\", the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt has risen synchronously. Since the beginning of the year, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds has strongly exceeded 1.5%, with an upward margin of more than 60BP, and the interest rate curve is also accelerating steepening.</p><p>At the same time, the rising interest rate has also brought a series of ripple effects, including the decline of gold and the weak rebound of the US dollar. In addition, whether U.S. stocks, whose valuation is already on the expensive side, will fall at a high level due to rising interest rates has also become a topic that the market begins to worry about.</p><p>As the most important risk-free interest rate in the world, US Treasury yields will affect U.S. stocks, exchange rates, commodities, bonds and other assets through valuation, interest rate spreads, financing costs, etc., and is one of the anchors of global asset pricing. The market's expectations for macroeconomy and policies implied behind interest rates will also be reflected in other assets. Therefore, how the US Treasury yields will be interpreted in the future and what impact it will have on other major classes of assets will be one of the key issues that need to be clarified in asset allocation this year.</p><p><b>Figure 1: The 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds keeps breaking upward, and the interest rate curve is accelerating steepening</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472ed8a62d0c8800f6eaf07e542de162\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Forward Outlook: Interest rates will continue to oscillate upward</b></p><p>We believe that the logic of the trend of US Treasury yields comes from the following three aspects:</p><p>First, the U.S. economy is in a recovery quadrant. As the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy gradually faded, the US economy has entered the path of weak recovery since the second half of last year, and US Treasury yields has also opened a slow upward channel since August last year. In addition, the large-scale vaccination of vaccines has been steadily advanced globally at the end of last year, while the United States is a \"top student\" in vaccination, and the economic recovery is expected to heat up further, which has also driven the accelerated upward trend of US Treasury yields.</p><p><b>Figure 2: U.S. PMI has been repaired from last April's 'pit bottom'</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5132045b337e04b6536de66b1c689699\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"706\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 3: COVID-19 vaccination per 100 people: Vaccination is progressing steadily, and the vaccination rate in the United States is much higher than that in key European countries (except the United Kingdom)</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f545da9ca448bbc8d4dd8409ef4c933d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"692\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>Second, the reconstruction of reinflation expectations. Last year, after experiencing the shock of negative oil prices, U.S. inflation was knocked to a rock bottom. However, with the gradual recovery of the demand side and the extremely loose monetary liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve, the United States has also started the pace of rebuilding reinflation. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of crude oil, nonferrous metals and other industrial commodities have continuously broken through the upward trend, which has also guided the inflation expectation in the market to further rise, and at the same time, it has also promoted the acceleration of the US Treasury yields.</p><p>Third, the intensification of expectations of large-scale fiscal stimulus. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. government has launched four rounds of fiscal stimulus packages totaling nearly $4 trillion, which have played a crucial role in the post-epidemic economic recovery. In addition, at the beginning of this year, after the Democratic Party achieved the \"Blue Sweep\" in both houses of Congress, it basically removed the obstacles in the legislative path of the Biden administration, and the market began to factor in the expectation of larger fiscal expenditure, which will not only bring negative pressure on U.S. debt from the supply side, but also strengthen the logic of economic recovery and reinflation, and further push up interest rates.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Commodities such as crude oil guide inflation expectations upward</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06ee3b54249eb764ca8f5abfe3b5813\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"669\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 5: 'Keynesianism' Returns, U.S. Government Spending Surges</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874fd23d8b2f864370403890793086df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\"><span>Source: Pew Research Center, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the upward trend of US Treasury yields will continue, and it may hit the position of 1.8%-2.0% during the year. In terms of rhythm, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. GDP and inflation will tend to fall after reaching its peak in Q2. However, due to the low base factor, the year-on-year index has \"statistical problems\" this year, and its referenceability has become weaker. Therefore, we believe that the decline of year-on-year indicators can't represent the actual shrinkage of economic demand, and the US Treasury yields may not show a synchronous decline near the middle of the year.</p><p>Against the background of weakening the guiding role of year-on-year indicators, the operation of real economic activities may be more affected by the vaccination process. According to the universal vaccination plan announced by the United States (universal vaccination will be achieved in the third quarter of 2021), we believe that the boost of vaccines to the economy will gradually appear from Q1-Q2 and be maximized in Q3-Q4, when both the economic recovery and the expectation of early withdrawal of extraordinary monetary policy will increase significantly. Therefore, although the nominal growth rate of the United States weakened year-on-year due to the base effect in the second half of the year, it is expected that US Treasury yields will still be able to maintain a volatile upward trend.</p><p><b>Figure 6: U.S. economic activity repair will be S-shaped</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44443c8134be4c2ae936531c6d571620\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"><span>Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 7: 2021 U.S. GDP will peak in the second quarter year-over-year</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab6e6180db5176ccb49defa9253e8d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>Source: Fred, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Asset Allocation: The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Large Asset Classes</b></p><p><b>(1) Transmission of rising interest rates to major assets</b></p><p>As the mapping of macro environment and liquidity, US Treasury yields is one of the anchors of global asset pricing, and its operation direction and change speed will guide or affect other asset classes.</p><p>If the interest rate enters an upward cycle, the macro environment reflected behind it often corresponds to economic recovery, inflation recovery or liquidity tightening. The three scenarios may not appear at the same time, but the tightening of liquidity often requires economic recovery or upward inflation as the background board. That is to say, the trend of higher interest rates generally reflects the economic cycle of recovery, overheating or stagflation, and large assets need to be allocated along these three macro scenarios. During the period of economic recovery and overheating, risk assets (industrial commodities, equity) tend to perform better than safe-haven assets (bonds, gold); In the period of economic stagflation, commodity assets that benefit from inflation are often stronger than equity and bond assets, and the market is prone to the situation of \"double killing of stocks and bonds\".</p><p>For example, from 2016 to 2018, the U.S. economy and inflation both entered an upward period, while the Federal Reserve also tightened its monetary policy (rate hike and shrinking balance sheet), and the market transactions recovered logically. At that time, while the long-term interest rate rose, risk assets such as US stocks and industrial products all performed well, while safe-haven assets such as gold performed poorly; During the first oil crisis from 1973 to 1974, the U.S. economy experienced a typical period of stagflation. Long-term interest rates rose sharply driven by hyperinflation, and large asset classes showed a typical situation of commodity strength and equity decline.</p><p>That is to say, the long-term interest rate is the market expression of the economy, inflation premium and liquidity. The macro and policy environments behind it are different, and the direction of impact on large assets will also be different.</p><p>In addition, it should be noted that if the long-term interest rate rises too quickly in the short term and the market has a strong tightening expectation, it may have a periodic negative impact on risk assets such as equity from the perspective of valuation, which will be elaborated in the equity section below.</p><p><b>Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Major Assets</b></p><p>To be clear, behind this round of rising interest rates is the recovery of the market pricing economy and the expectation of reinflation, and liquidity has not been substantially tightened. Therefore, we believe that the trend of continued trading recovery and reinflation in the global capital market will not change, and the overall performance of risk assets will be stronger than that of safe-haven assets.</p><p><b>1. China's Treasury Bond: The upside of interest rates is limited, and Q2-Q3 may gradually top</b></p><p>After the financial crisis, although the 10Y Treasury Bond interest rates between China and the United States occasionally differentiated, the overall trend was consistent, which implied the synchronization of the economic cycle between China and the United States. Since the beginning of the year, the rising interest rates of U.S. bonds and ChinaBond are all market manifestations of the continuation of economic recovery, the rapid rise of inflation expectations and the tightening of liquidity margin (more reflected in ChinaBond). The recent rapid rise in US Treasury yields has also put upward pressure on ChinaBond interest rate from the perspective of emotion. Therefore, in the short term, under the background that the US Treasury yields will continue to rise, the long-term interest rate of ChinaBond as a whole is easy to rise but difficult to fall.</p><p><b>Figure 8: ChinaBond Interest Rate and US Treasury yields Recently Shown Synchronous Upward Trends</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ad46b23d006dda166ad3e0d8615300d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"656\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>However, it should be noted that due to the differences in the pace and space of recovery between China and the United States this year, we believe that the upward rate and rate of ChinaBond interest rate are relatively limited compared with those of U.S. debt, and ChinaBond interest rate is also expected to gradually peak in Q2-Q3.</p><p>First of all, although this year is the first year of post-epidemic recovery, it is expected that the overall recovery space of China's economy will be relatively limited, and the negative impact on ChinaBond will be relatively small. At the same time, as China's economy led the world in recovery last year, and vaccination has little marginal pulling force on China's economy, it may be different from the recovery pace of overseas economies, and ChinaBond interest rate may also appear to peak ahead of US Treasury yields. In view of the fact that we believe that the real operation pattern of China's economy (according to the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter observation) will show a downward inflection point in Q4, the interest rate of ChinaBond is also expected to gradually peak near Q2-Q3.</p><p>In addition, although the inflation expectations of China and the United States have risen in the near future, there is a certain degree of differentiation and difference. China's CPI is more affected by the fluctuation of pig prices and food prices. In the downward stage of the pig cycle, the inflationary pressure measured by CPI this year is expected to be small, and the constraints on monetary policy will be small.</p><p>Finally, although the upward shock of US Treasury yields will have an emotional impact on ChinaBond to some extent, considering that the interest rate difference between China and the United States is still wide, the safety cushion transmitted by US Treasury yields to ChinaBond is high, and the guiding force for ChinaBond is expected to be relatively limited.</p><p><b>2. Foreign exchange: The duration of the weak US dollar is limited, and the RMB is strong first and then weak</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the rapid rise of US Treasury yields has driven the interest rate spread between the United States and Europe to rise significantly, and the US Dollar Index has therefore seen a weak rebound.</p><p>The change of the US dollar is a relative concept, which reflects more of the evolution of \"the difference between the United States and Europe\". US Treasury yields often affects the trend of the US Dollar Index by guiding the interest rate spread between the United States and Europe. However, it should be noted that there are many factors that affect the US index. In addition to the consideration of interest rates, it is also necessary to make a comprehensive judgment based on factors such as economic poverty between the United States and Europe, monetary policy poverty, double deficit and market risk appetite.</p><p><b>Figure 9: US-Europe spread upward</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f12f0726508fd28890699b3fc251b516\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 10: The scissors gap between the United States and Europe has narrowed sharply</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e649c0371693b08cadafd5e662dd7a62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"672\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>First of all, we believe that the upward trend of U.S. debt and European debt interest rates has been established. However, considering that the United States can recover its economy faster after the large-scale vaccination, the upward speed and magnitude of US Treasury yields are expected to be higher than those of European debt, and the upward trend of the interest rate spread between the United States and Europe will be dominated by U.S. debt, which is good for the U.S. dollar. However, it should be noted that there is indeed trend consistency between the US Dollar Index and the spread between the United States and Europe, but it is not completely synchronized. That is to say, although the interest rate spread between the United States and Europe has an upward turning point, it does not necessarily mean that the turning point of the US dollar will also appear simultaneously. Opening a strong US dollar requires the cooperation and strengthening of other favorable factors.</p><p>Secondly, the scissors gap between the US and Europe has narrowed sharply this year, and the vaccination rate in the US is much higher than that in major European countries (except the UK). In other words, last year's bad epidemic logic of \"Europe is strong and the United States is weak\" has been gradually broken, which will also bring support to the US dollar.</p><p>However, it should be noted that although the recent rebound in the US Dollar Index is traceable, the overall range is limited, indicating that the market is still limited by some negative factors. For example, although the market has given the United States a high economic recovery expectation at present, it has not been verified in economic data (at present, the European PMI data is still on the strong side). In addition, the central banks of the United States and Europe both emphasize the \"loose tone\", and the differentiated characteristics of monetary policy are not obvious. In addition, the \"double deficit\" problem caused by large-scale fiscal expenditure in the United States and the logic of higher global risk appetite have a drag on the US Dollar Index occasionally.</p><p><b>Figure 11: Higher size of the US double deficit</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ade0ab5e8a4e17e7cfd74f09b10d3c1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 12: Europe's February PMI data is still on the strong side</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28049285a1b9d751d0b50e8693065812\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>Generally speaking, because some factors that are negative for the US dollar may not dissipate in the short term, it is difficult for us to judge that the rebound of the US dollar since the beginning of the year has formed an inflection point from bear to bull. However, the logic of some bullish dollars has been gradually established, and the duration of weak dollars is expected to be limited. the US Dollar Index may be expected to bottom out and rebound this year.</p><p>For RMB, considering that the interest rate difference between China and the United States will gradually narrow this year, China's \"leading\" advantage in economic recovery will be reduced, and the supporting force for RMB exchange rate will be weakened. At the same time, considering that the US dollar is expected to turn from bear to bull this year, it is expected that the RMB will also show a strong and then weak shape.</p><p><b>3. Gold: Real interest rate repairs upward, reducing the proportion of gold allocation</b></p><p>For gold, the change of the real interest rate of U.S. bonds is the core factor affecting its pricing. For most of the time from August last year to now, the upward trend of the nominal interest rate of U.S. debt was more contributed by inflation expectations, and the real interest rate remained relatively low. However, a key change in recent times is that with the steady progress of vaccination process, the tension of superimposing the global epidemic has eased, the expectation of economic recovery has been strengthened, the contribution of real interest rates to nominal interest rates has increased, and gold has also fallen under significant pressure.</p><p>Looking forward to the future, with the widespread use of vaccines, while strengthening the \"recovery expectation\", the market will gradually price the expectation of the gradual withdrawal of unconventional monetary policy. The nominal interest rate and inflation of U.S. debt will be further pushed up, while the real interest rate may continue to gradually recover from the deep negative pit, and the logic that the low dollar real interest rate drives the gold price upward has been destroyed. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce the allocation ratio of gold, and investors can also consider the value-preserving strategy as the main idea, such as allocating value-preserving bullish gold.</p><p><b>Figure 13: The contribution of real interest rates to nominal interest rates begins to increase</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9364538bb645666d7d69976e2cb845a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 14: Gold follows the upward trend of real interest rates and falls</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50be8211db948d2cfccbafa1ad9db85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>4. Equity: If U.S. stocks pull back at a high level, it should be a short-term behavior, which has an emotional impact on A shares</b></p><p>As interest rates continue to rise, the market gradually begins to worry that U.S. stocks will be under continuous valuation pressure and even fall sharply. However, by sorting out the historical data (after the financial crisis), US stocks will indeed have a downward impact due to the rapid rise of interest rates, but the magnitude and duration of this decline are relatively limited, and US stocks have also returned to the upward channel after the callback. Therefore, only taking the upward trend of US Treasury yields as the logic of U.S. stocks entering a bear market, we think it is too thin and lacks data support.</p><p>Judging from historical data, in recent years, the short-term decline of U.S. stocks due to the rise of U.S. bond interest rates appeared in 2013 and 2018 respectively.</p><p>In May, 2013, Bernanke released the QE reduction signal, which triggered a \"Taper Tantrum\" in the market. While US Treasury yields rushed rapidly, it also had a periodic negative impact on US stocks. The S&P 500 index fell by nearly 6% in this impact, which lasted for about one month, and then returned to the upward trend again.</p><p>At the beginning of 2018, due to the strong optimistic expectation of the Federal Reserve for the economic outlook, it released a hawkish signal that exceeded expectations, which strengthened the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would have multiple rate hike throughout the year. As a result, the US Treasury yields rose rapidly, and the S&P 500 plunged sharply during this period, with an overall decline of 10%, which lasted for about half a month, and then returned to the upward trend again.</p><p><b>Figure 15: Taper panic in 2013, U.S. stocks fell in stages</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61eb1da7e798e439112a88d8e13e5cee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p><b>Figure 16: The Fed's hawkish attitude in 2018 led to a staged decline in U.S. stocks</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbcae1910fac7809ac093586167a721e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"676\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>If the short-term impact is thrown away, in fact, since the financial crisis, the upward trend of US Treasury yields has often been synchronized with the trend of US stocks.</p><p>The reasons are, first of all, that the world has entered an era of low inflation, and the logical chain from liquidity tightening and profit expectation to equity decline caused by stagflation has rarely appeared in the past decade. In recent years, the upward trend of long-term interest rates has been driven more by economic recovery or inflation repair. That is to say, although the upward interest rate will have a negative impact on the valuation side of the stock market, the improvement of profit expectations has digested this part of the loss, and US stocks and US Treasury yields have therefore shown a synchronous upward trend.</p><p>Secondly, since the financial crisis, every tightening action of the Federal Reserve has been relatively \"moderate\", and the expectation management and communication of the market have been relatively sufficient, which has brought low pressure on the comprehensive valuation of the market, and almost all the market declines caused by excessive liquidity have become \"short-term behaviors\".</p><p>Therefore, for U.S. stocks with high valuation at present, if the interest rate of U.S. debt continues to rise rapidly due to the expected repair of inflation or the release of marginal tightening expectation by the Federal Reserve, we do not rule out that there will be a periodic correction in U.S. stocks, and trading investors need to pay attention to the high volatility risk. However, under the background of global resonance recovery, the certainty of overseas equity markets has strengthened, and it is expected that U.S. stocks will continue to return to the strong range after periodic disturbances.</p><p><b>Figure 17: Since the financial crisis, the upward trend of US Treasury yields tends to synchronize with the upward trend of U.S. stocks</b></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1679bfd726ae32a5188aad278119b2c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\"><span>Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute</span></p><p>For A-shares, if US stocks fall in stages because of rising interest rates, A-shares will also be negatively affected by emotion. This risk needs attention. However, in the medium-term trend, the future trend of A shares still needs to return to the judgment of its own fundamentals and domestic monetary policy.</p><p>In addition, under the background of rising inflation expectations, although the market liquidity expectations are relatively cautious, some cyclical industries (nonferrous metals, steel, etc.) directly affected by the price increase of upstream raw materials are expected to benefit from the logic of improved profit expectations and have an upward share price. At the same time, the market performance in late February has been confirmed, and there has been an obvious style switching phenomenon in the A-share market, that is, the hot stocks (such as food and beverage, leisure services, etc.) with strong performance in the early stage have fallen significantly, while the cyclical sectors (such as steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, architectural decoration, etc.) have risen significantly. Looking forward, although it is difficult to say that the funds are loose, the upward trend of inflation may continue, which is still expected to provide a good environment for the performance of procyclical industries to a certain extent.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5bdl2vsMZZqAVe5o0EhXmA\"> 招商银行研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ece06f0d5f47ced3643ec6cfcc433e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5bdl2vsMZZqAVe5o0EhXmA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184749480","content_text":"■为何需要关注美债利率的变动：年初至今，美债10Y利率强势突破1.5%，上行幅度已超过60BP，利率曲线也正加速陡峭化。美债利率作为全球最重要的无风险利率，是大类资产定价的锚之一。而利率背后所隐含的市场对宏观经济以及政策的预期，也同样将在其他资产中同步体现。因此，未来利率将如何演绎，对大类资产又将产生何种影响，将是今年在资产配置中需要明确的关键问题之一。\n■ 美债利率未来趋势：我们认为美债利率的上行趋势仍将延续，年内可能会上碰1.8%-2.0%的位置。从节奏上来说，我们认为疫苗对经济的提振将从Q1-Q2逐渐显现，并于Q3-Q4达到最大化，届时无论是经济的复苏还是超常规货币政策提前退出的预期都将明显上升。因此，尽管下半年美国名义增速由于基数效应出现同比走弱，但预计美债利率也仍然能够维持震荡向上。\n■ 利率上行对大类资产的传导：利率的趋势性走高一般映射着复苏、过热或是滞胀的经济周期，大类资产也需沿着这3种宏观场景进行配置。在经济复苏以及过热期，风险资产（工业大宗、权益）表现往往好于避险资产（债券、黄金）；而在经济滞胀期，受益于通胀的商品类资产则往往强于权益以及债券类资产，市场也容易出现“股债双杀”的局面。也就是说，长端利率背后所代表的宏观、政策环境不同，对大类资产影响的方向也会有所差异。\n■ 利率上行对大类资产的影响：我们认为海外资本市场继续交易复苏以及再通胀的趋势不会改变，风险资产的表现将强于避险资产。中国国债：利率上行空间有限，Q2-Q3或逐渐筑顶。中债利率的上行幅度、速率相对美债来说都较为有限，中债利率也有望在Q2-Q3逐渐筑顶。外汇：弱美元持续时间有限，人民币先强后弱。部分利多美元的逻辑已经逐渐确立，弱美元的持续时间预计较为有限，美指在今年或有望走出见底回升的形态，人民币也将先强后弱。黄金：实际利率修复上行，降低黄金配置比例。低美元实际利率驱动金价上行的逻辑已经被破坏，建议降低黄金的配置比例。权益：美股若高位回调应为短期行为，对A股存在情绪影响。若美债利率继续拉升，美股可能会出现阶段性回调，但其强势趋势未被打破。此外，美股的短期下跌将对A股产生利空影响，这一风险需要留意。\n正文\n01\n美债利率加速上行引发市场高波动\n随着美国经济逐渐从“新冠衰退”向“复苏”切换，美债长端利率出现同步式上行。年初至今，美债10Y利率强势突破1.5%，上行幅度已超过60BP，利率曲线也正加速陡峭化。\n与此同时，不断上行的利率也带来了一系列的连锁反应，包括黄金的下跌以及美元的弱反弹等。此外，估值已经偏贵的美股是否会因不断上冲的利率而出现高位下跌也成为了市场开始担忧的议题。\n美债利率作为全球最重要的无风险利率，其会通过估值、利差、融资成本等角度影响美股、汇率、商品以及债券等资产，是全球大类资产定价的锚之一。而利率背后所隐含的市场对宏观经济以及政策的预期，也同样将在其他资产中同步体现。因此，未来美债利率将如何演绎，对其他大类资产又将产生何种影响，将是今年在资产配置中需要明确的关键问题之一。\n图1：美债10Y利率不断向上突破，利率曲线正加速陡峭化\n\n\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n02\n前瞻展望：利率将继续震荡向上\n我们认为，美债利率的趋势性走高逻辑来源于以下三个方面：\n第一，美国经济正处于复苏象限。随着疫情对经济的负面冲击逐渐褪去，美国经济从去年下半年开始已经进入到弱复苏的路径当中，美债利率也从去年8月就开启了缓慢上行的通道。此外，疫苗的规模接种已于去年年底在全球范围内稳步推进，而美国在疫苗接种中属于“优等生”，经济修复预期进一步升温，这也带动了美债利率的加速上行。\n图2：美国PMI已从去年4月的“坑底”中修复\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n图3：每百人新冠疫苗接种量：接种稳步推进，美国接种速率远高于欧洲重点国家（除英国）\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n第二，再通胀预期的重建。去年在经历了负油价的冲击后，美国通胀被打入谷底。但随着需求侧的逐步回暖，叠加美联储提供了极度宽松的货币流动性，美国也开启了重建再通胀的脚步。今年以来，原油、有色等工业大宗价格不断突破上行，也引导着市场中的通胀预期进一步向上，同时也推动了美债利率的加速走高。\n第三，大规模财政刺激预期的激化。疫情爆发以来，美国政府共推出了4轮共近4万亿美元的财政刺激方案，对疫后经济复苏起到了至关重要的作用。另外，今年年初民主党在国会两院实现“蓝营横扫（Blue Sweep）”后，基本扫除了拜登政府在立法道路中的障碍，市场开始计入更大规模的财政支出预期，这不仅仅会从供应端给美债带来负面压力，同时也会强化经济复苏以及再通胀逻辑，并进一步推高利率水平。\n图4：原油等大宗商品引导通胀预期上行\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n图5：“凯恩斯主义”回归，美国政府支出激增\n资料来源：Pew Research Center、招商银行研究院\n展望未来，我们认为美债利率的上行趋势仍将延续，年内可能会上碰1.8%-2.0%的位置。从节奏上来说，美国GDP、通胀同比增速将于Q2达到顶峰后趋于回落。但是，同比指标由于低基数因素在今年出现“统计性问题”，可参考性变弱。因此，我们认为同比指标的下滑也无法代表经济需求出现实际性的萎缩，美债利率也未必会在年中附近的位置出现同步下行。\n在同比指标引导作用弱化的背景下，实际经济活动的运行或更多受到疫苗接种进程的影响。根据美国公布的全民接种疫苗计划来看（2021年3季度实现全民疫苗接种），我们认为疫苗对经济的提振将从Q1-Q2逐渐显现，并于Q3-Q4达到最大化，届时无论是经济的复苏、还是超常规货币政策提前退出的预期都将明显上升。因此，尽管下半年美国名义增速由于基数效应出现同比走弱，但预计美债利率也仍然能够维持震荡向上。\n图6：美国经济活动修复将呈S型\n\n\n资料来源：招商银行研究院\n图7：2021年美国GDP同比将于二季度达到峰值\n资料来源：Fred、招商银行研究院\n02\n资产配置：利率上行对大类资产的影响\n（一）利率上行对大类资产的传导\n美债利率作为宏观环境以及流动性的映射，是全球大类资产定价的锚之一，其运作方向以及变化快慢对其他大类资产都会产生引导作用或造成影响。\n利率若进入上行周期，其背后反映的宏观环境往往对应着经济复苏、通胀回升或是流动性收紧。三种场景未必同时出现，但流动性的收紧则往往需要经济复苏或是通胀上行作为背景板。也就是说，利率的趋势性走高一般映射着复苏、过热或是滞胀的经济周期，大类资产也需沿着这3种宏观场景进行配置。在经济复苏以及过热期，风险资产（工业大宗、权益）表现往往好于避险资产（债券、黄金）；而在经济滞胀期，受益于通胀的商品类资产则往往强于权益以及债券类资产，市场也容易出现“股债双杀”的局面。\n例如，2016-2018年，美国经济、通胀均进入上行期，而美联储也同时收紧了货币政策（加息、缩表），市场交易复苏逻辑。彼时在长端利率上行的同时，风险资产诸如美股、工业品均表现亮眼，而黄金等避险资产则表现较差；1973-1974年的第一次石油危机时期，美国经济经历了典型滞胀期，长端利率在恶性通胀的推动下大幅上涨，大类资产则呈现典型的商品强势，而权益下跌的局面。\n也就是说，长端利率是对经济、通胀溢价以及流动性的市场表达，其背后所代表的宏观、政策环境不同，对大类资产影响的方向也会有所差异。\n另外，需要留意的是，若长端利率在短期内过快上行，市场产生较强的收紧预期，则有可能会通过估值的角度对权益等风险资产造成阶段性的负面冲击，这一点将于下文的权益部分详细阐述。\n（二）利率上行对大类资产的影响\n需要明确的是，这一轮利率上行的背后是市场在定价经济的复苏、以及再通胀预期，流动性尚未出现实质性的收紧，因此我们认为全球资本市场继续交易复苏以及再通胀的趋势不会改变，风险资产的表现总体将强于避险资产。\n1. 中国国债：利率上行空间有限，Q2-Q3或逐渐筑顶\n金融危机之后，中美10Y国债利率虽偶有分化，但整体则呈现出趋势性的一致，其背后则隐含着中美经济周期运行的同步性。年初至今，美债、以及中债利率的上行均是市场对于经济修复延续、通胀预期迅速抬升以及流动性边际收紧（更多体现在中债）的市场体现。叠加近期美债利率的快速走高亦从情绪的角度对中债利率造成了上行压力。因此，短期来看，在美债利率将继续向上的背景下，中债长端利率整体也易上难下。\n图8：中债利率和美债利率近期出现同步上行\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n但需要留意的是，由于今年中美经济在复苏节奏、空间上有所差异，我们认为中债利率的上行幅度、速率相对美债来说都较为有限，中债利率也有望在Q2-Q3逐渐筑顶。\n首先，虽然今年是疫后复苏元年，但预计中国经济的整体恢复空间较为有限，对中债造成的负面冲击也相对较小。同时，由于中国经济在去年领先全球率先复苏，且疫苗接种对中国经济的边际拉动力不大，因此可能和海外经济的复苏节奏形成差异，中债利率或也将提前于美债利率出现筑顶形态。鉴于我们认为中国经济的真实运行形态（根据季调环比观察）将于Q4出现向下的拐点，中债利率也有望于Q2-Q3附近逐渐筑顶。\n另外，尽管中美通胀预期均在近期有所抬升，但其中存在一定程度的分化和差异。我国CPI更多受到猪价以及食品价格波动的影响，在猪周期下行阶段，今年以CPI衡量的通胀压力预计不大，对货币政策的掣肘也会较小。\n最后，尽管美债利率的震荡上行将在一定程度上给中债带来情绪影响，但考虑到中美利差仍然偏阔，美债利率向中债传导的安全垫较高，对中债的引导性力量预计相对有限。\n2. 外汇：弱美元持续时间有限，人民币先强后弱\n今年以来，美债利率的迅速拉升带动美欧利差明显走高，美元指数也因此出现了弱反弹行情。\n美元的变动属于相对概念，背后所折射的更多是“美欧差异”的演化。美债利率则往往通过引导美欧利差进而影响美元指数的走势。但需要留意的是，影响美指的因素诸多，除了对于利率的考量之外，同时也需要结合美欧经济差、货币政策差、双赤字、市场风险偏好等因素进行综合判断。\n图9：美欧利差上行\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n图10：美欧疫情剪刀差急剧缩窄\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n首先，我们认为美债以及欧债利率的上行趋势都已经确立，但考虑到美国在实现疫苗的规模接种后能够更快恢复经济，美债利率的上行速度、幅度预计均将高于欧债，美欧利差的上行趋势将由美债主导，利好美元。但需要留意的是，美元指数与美欧利差之间的确存在趋势上的一致性，但并不完全同步。也就是说，尽管美欧利差出现了向上的拐点，但并不一定代表着美元的拐点也将同步出现，开启强美元还需要其他利好因素的配合与强化。\n其次，美欧疫情之间的剪刀差在今年急剧缩窄，同时美国的疫苗接种速率也要远远高于欧洲主要国家（除英国）。也就是说，去年利空美元的“欧强美弱”的疫情差逻辑已经被逐渐打破，这也将给美元带来支撑力量。\n但需要留意的是，虽然近期美元指数的反弹有迹可循，但整体幅度有限，表明市场仍然受到部分利空因素的限制。例如，尽管目前市场对美国赋予了较高的经济恢复预期，但并未在经济数据方面得以验证（目前欧洲PMI数据仍然偏强）。此外，美欧央行均强调“宽松基调”，货币政策的差异化特征并不明显。另外，美国因大规模财政支出造成的“双赤字”问题以及全球风险偏好走高的逻辑对美元指数的拖累作用亦间或出现。\n图11：美国双赤字规模较高\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n图12：欧洲2月的PMI数据仍然偏强\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n综合来说，由于利空美元的部分因素未必在短期内消散，因此我们很难判断年初至今的美元反弹就已经形成了熊转牛的拐点。但是，部分利多美元的逻辑已经逐渐确立，弱美元的持续时间预计较为有限，美元指数在今年或有望走出见底回升的形态。\n对于人民币来说，考虑到中美利差在今年将逐渐缩窄，中国经济复苏的“领先性”优势降低，对人民币汇率的支撑力量减弱。同时考虑到美元有望在今年出现熊转牛的拐点，预计人民币也将呈现先强后弱的形态。\n3. 黄金：实际利率修复上行，降低黄金配置比例\n对于黄金来说，美债实际利率的变动是影响其定价的核心因素。去年8月到目前的大部分时间，美债名义利率的上行更多是由通胀预期所贡献，实际利率维持在相对低位。然而，近段时间一个关键的变化是，随着疫苗的接种进程稳步推进，叠加全球疫情的紧张程度有所缓解，经济复苏预期遭到强化，实际利率对名义利率的贡献增多，黄金亦明显承压下跌。\n展望未来，随着疫苗得到广泛使用，在强化“复苏预期”的同时，市场也会逐渐定价超常规货币政策逐步退出的预期，美债名义利率、通胀均将进一步推高，而实际利率也可能会继续从深度负值的坑位中渐进修复，低美元实际利率驱动金价上行的逻辑已经被破坏。因此，建议降低黄金的配置比例，投资者也可以考虑以保值策略作为主要思路，例如配置保值看涨金等。\n图13：实际利率对名义利率的贡献开始增多\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n图14：黄金跟随实际利率上行出现下跌\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n4. 权益：美股若高位回调应为短期行为，对A股存在情绪影响\n随着利率不断上冲，市场逐渐开始担忧美股会因此受到持续性的估值压力，甚至出现较大幅度的下跌。但通过梳理历史数据（金融危机后）来看，美股的确会因为利率过快上行而造成下跌影响，但这种下跌的幅度、以及持续时间都相对有限，美股在回调后也均重新回到了上行通道当中。因此，仅以美债利率上行作为美股进入熊市的逻辑我们认为过于单薄且缺乏数据支撑。\n从历史数据来看，近年来因美债利率上行导致美股出现短期下跌的现象分别出现在2013年和2018年。\n2013年5月，伯南克释放QE缩减信号，引发市场出现“缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）”，美债利率在迅速上冲的同时也对美股产生了阶段性的负面冲击，标普500指数在此次冲击中下跌幅度近6%，持续时间为1个月左右，随后则再次回到了上行趋势当中。\n2018年初，由于美联储对经济前景抱有较强的乐观预期，释放了超预期的鹰派信号，强化了市场对于美联储全年将多次加息的预期。美债利率因此快速冲高，标普500在此期间出现急跌，整体跌幅达到10%，持续时间为半个月左右，随后亦同样重新回到上行趋势当中。\n图15：2013年出现缩减恐慌，美股阶段性下跌\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n图16：2018年美联储态度鹰派，美股阶段性下跌\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n如果抛掉短期影响，实际上，自金融危机以来，美债利率的上行往往与美股呈现趋势性同步。\n究其原因，首先，全球已经进入低通胀时代，因滞胀所造成的流动性收紧、盈利预期下滑到权益下跌的逻辑链条在近十几年内鲜少出现。近年来，长端利率的上行更多是由经济复苏或是通胀修复推动。也就是说，尽管利率向上会对股市的估值端带来负面冲击，但盈利预期的改善却消化了这部分损失，美股与美债利率因此呈现同步上行。\n其次，自金融危机以来，美联储每一次的收紧动作都显得相对“温和”，对市场的预期管理、沟通也都做的相对充分，带给市场的全面性估值压力不高，因流动性过紧造成的市场下跌也几乎都变成了“短期行为”。\n因此，对于当下估值偏高的美股来说，若美债利率因通胀超预期修复、或是美联储释放边际收紧预期而继续快速拉升的话，我们不排除美股会出现阶段性回调，交易型投资者需留意其中的高波动风险。但是，在全球共振复苏的大背景下，海外权益市场确定性加强，在阶段性的扰动后预计美股仍将继续回到强势区间当中。\n图17：金融危机以来，美债利率上行往往与美股上涨呈现趋势性同步\n资料来源：Wind、招商银行研究院\n对于A股来说，若美股因为利率冲高而出现阶段性下跌，A股也将因此受到情绪上的利空影响，这一风险需要留意。但以中期趋势来说，A股的未来走势仍需回归到对自身基本面、以及国内货币政策的判断上。\n另外，在通胀预期抬升的大背景下，尽管市场流动性预期相对谨慎，但部分直接受上游原材料涨价影响的周期类行业（有色、钢铁等）预计将受益于盈利预期改善的逻辑而出现股价上行。同时，2月下旬的市场表现已有所印证，A股市场已经出现明显的风格切换现象，即前期表现强势的热门股（如食品饮料、休闲服务等）跌势明显，而周期板块（如钢铁、有色、化工、建筑装饰等）升势显著。展望未来，尽管资金面难言宽松，但通胀上行的趋势或将延续，一定程度上仍有望为顺周期行业的表现提供良好环境。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"GOLDmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":377494965,"gmtCreate":1619543479257,"gmtModify":1704725726757,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548456177993691","idStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK","listText":"MARK","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377494965","repostId":"347989344","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":347989344,"gmtCreate":1618456138484,"gmtModify":1704711110258,"author":{"id":"3499642540046495","authorId":"3499642540046495","name":"房东经济学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfaddbb1342d4bbb2d3ec62de517927","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499642540046495","idStr":"3499642540046495"},"themes":[],"title":"爲什麼再有錢也很難財務自由？","htmlText":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","listText":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","text":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0d3d3f80705d8737c51ed49dd2865e","width":"607","height":"707"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4725c8ccaf5689b6294c4821e27d47c0","width":"1080","height":"814"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a72cb7469390912d32d9492ee4504dc","width":"1080","height":"1226"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347989344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349374997,"gmtCreate":1617569775719,"gmtModify":1704700409301,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548456177993691","idStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK","listText":"MARK","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349374997","repostId":"1128354316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355566094,"gmtCreate":1617086571518,"gmtModify":1704801778853,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548456177993691","idStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Swap. cfd. ltcm.","listText":"Swap. cfd. ltcm.","text":"Swap. cfd. ltcm.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355566094","repostId":"355534446","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":355534446,"gmtCreate":1617083887981,"gmtModify":1704801743399,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  【Bill Hwang事件後續：華爾街銀行被監管機構召見】 彭博報道，華爾街各銀行正在努力應對比爾•黃(Bill Hwang)旗下的Archegos Capital Management倒閉所帶來的後果。消息人士稱，美國證券交易委員會(SEC)週一匆忙召集各銀行召開會議，探討引發多年來最大的基金崩潰之一的原因。這也引起了人們對黃哲倫用來購買公司大量股份的祕密金融工具的注意。\n \n","listText":"【Bill Hwang事件後續：華爾街銀行被監管機構召見】 彭博報道，華爾街各銀行正在努力應對比爾•黃(Bill Hwang)旗下的Archegos Capital Management倒閉所帶來的後果。消息人士稱，美國證券交易委員會(SEC)週一匆忙召集各銀行召開會議，探討引發多年來最大的基金崩潰之一的原因。這也引起了人們對黃哲倫用來購買公司大量股份的祕密金融工具的注意。","text":"【Bill Hwang事件後續：華爾街銀行被監管機構召見】 彭博報道，華爾街各銀行正在努力應對比爾•黃(Bill Hwang)旗下的Archegos Capital Management倒閉所帶來的後果。消息人士稱，美國證券交易委員會(SEC)週一匆忙召集各銀行召開會議，探討引發多年來最大的基金崩潰之一的原因。這也引起了人們對黃哲倫用來購買公司大量股份的祕密金融工具的注意。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355534446","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"4e49b796b0ef4de3bd87b100fcda6186","tweetId":"355534446","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/4e6ae2455285890816212069026/f0.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ae7d9f5e976c6677b0795c901acf20"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355583893,"gmtCreate":1617085177012,"gmtModify":1704801761494,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548456177993691","idStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK","listText":"MARK","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355583893","repostId":"1117103484","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356261844,"gmtCreate":1616779812888,"gmtModify":1704798972607,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548456177993691","idStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356261844","repostId":"1170764582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170764582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616765445,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170764582?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170764582","media":" 一瑜中的","summary":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Yu Fu Chunsheng</p><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p>After the $1.9 trillion relief landed, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan quickly heated up. As the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report takes the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blueprint, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures and impact), in order to make a rough understanding of the measures and impact of the formal reconstruction plan in the future.</p><p>Biden Infrastructure: How to Build?</p><p><b>1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</b></p><p>Very necessary. First, the state of infrastructure is worrying. According to the latest assessment by ASCE, infrastructure in the United States is still \"mostly below standard\", showing a relatively severe \"deterioration\" condition. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the infrastructure sector in 2019, and fifth in 2002. Second, there is a massive investment gap. In the next decade, the total investment gap in infrastructure has reached 2.59 trillion USD. Finally, infrastructure spending is far lower than in major economies, with Europe spending 5% of GDP, China spending about 8% of GDP, and the United States only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually \"out of reach\". As the infrastructure stock continues to grow, state and local governments have to shoulder more operating and maintenance costs, and the amount of new investment has declined since the early 2000s.</p><p><b>2. Is there any precedent for federal government-led infrastructure investment?</b></p><p>Historically, Biden's infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States in the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditure of 18 billion USD, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The least invested was the Obama ARRA Act, which spent $120 billion on infrastructure, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's interstate highway cost $25 billion, or 5.6 percent of 1956 GDP, and Clinton's information highway plan totaled 400 billion, or 5.8 percent of 1993 GDP. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is about $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><b>3. What are the specific measures for Biden's infrastructure?</b></p><p>The plan proposed on the Biden campaign website is $2 trillion over a 10-year period, representing 9.3% of 2019 GDP; Among them, infrastructure investment was USD 1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very broad. It covers eight areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean electricity investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Employment promotion and the reconstruction of the middle class are the \"highlights\". 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is inherently consistent with the need to create employment. It should be noted that the investment amount in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward a clear investment amount.</p><p><b>4. What impact does Biden's infrastructure have on the U.S. economy?</b></p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated by the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (evaluated by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion to 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on jobs: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next decade. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and \"significantly increase\" in GDP in the long term.</p><p>Biden Tax Raises: How?</p><p><b>First, Biden's tax increase is basically certain.</b></p><p>Three reasons: 1) Tax increases are one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that they will be fulfilled. 2) It is explicitly stated on the Biden campaign website that 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by \"ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair share of (tax) revenue\". 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that some of the spending on the next bill (the Biden Rebuild Plan) will be raised by tax hikes.</p><p><b>Second, there is a precedent for tax increases.</b></p><p>Since the 1950s, the overall income tax rate in the United States has shown a downward trend, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the \"Vietnam War Surtax\" imposed in 1968-1970 to cover Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the growing deficit. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was the largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. Its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.</p><p><b>Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; Corporate tax burden increased, but manufacturing industry was encouraged to return.</b></p><p>The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have been raised. On the one hand, increase the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups, etc. On the other hand, re-increase the corporate income tax rate and adjust some other corporate taxes.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the U.S. economy?</b></p><p>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth over the next decade, reducing GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% over the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax hikes could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax hikes would reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over the decade). In addition, the Tax Foundation expects that the tax increase will reduce wages and lose jobs, narrow the income gap but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p><b>Two key points in time: When is a formal redevelopment plan likely to be launched?</b></p><p><b>The first key point in time: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden proposed the \"American Relief Plan\" on January 14 this year, he made it clear: \"When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will present my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future.'\" Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the pandemic is the first priority. On February 11, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said, \"We will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 relief bill.\" Because the American relief plan encountered resistance in Congress and was not officially implemented until March 14, Biden has not attended the joint session of Congress so far, and the reconstruction plan has not been formally proposed.</p><p>When is the joint session of Congress convened? That's the key. March 24 White House spokesman Psaki said that no time has been set yet. Historically, the latest time for a president to attend a joint session of Congress and deliver a \"speech to a joint session of Congress\" is February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget proposal to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan can pass the committees under the House and Senate in May, so we expect that the total scale and specific project details of the reconstruction plan will probably be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>Second key point in time: October.</b></p><p>First, the Democratic Party can start the \"budget reconciliation process\" again after October. Second, the positive statements from top Democrats suggest that they will move the reconstruction plan to a vote in Congress as quickly as possible or move the reconstruction plan to a budget reconciliation process at the start of the new fiscal year.</p><p>Risk alert: Disagreement within the Democratic Party over the reconstruction plan.</p><p><b>Report Directory</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Report Text</p><p>After the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief Plan, discussions on the Biden Reconstruction Plan (\"Biden Infrastructure Plan\") (\"Biden Infrastructure Plan\"), which is also referred to by domestic and foreign reports and reports because most of its measures are related to infrastructure), have rapidly heated up. According to Bloomberg's report on March 22nd, the near-term reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House press secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd, \"Time is running fast, so he will discuss with his team this week what options, scale and scope are available.\" According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will present his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he first attends the joint session of Congress and delivers a \"speech at the joint session of Congress,\" so the reconstruction plan may be officially \"unveiled\" in April.</p><p>As Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the campaign as a blueprint for analysis.</p><p>1. Biden Infrastructure: How to \"Build\"?</p><p>Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four questions. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the US government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment from historical comparison? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure project? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure project on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</p><p>The current state of infrastructure in the United States is worrying, and large-scale investment is very necessary. Most of the infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful lives and are nearing the point of \"scrapping\".</p><p>First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation level is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure at \"D +\" (A-F) in 2017 and upgraded to \"C-\" in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also indicates that US infrastructure is still \"mostly below standard\", showing a relatively severe \"deterioration\" condition. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, down eight places in 17 years.</p><p>Second, there is a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States at present. If it is not made up, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total U.S. infrastructure investment shortfall has reached $2.59 trillion in the next decade, and if it is not made up, the U.S. will lose 10 trillion GDP and 2.4 trillion exports by 2039. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study argues that $150 billion in annual infrastructure investment is needed from 2017 to 2030 to keep up with the demand for infrastructure in the U.S. economy.</p><p>Third, infrastructure expenditure in the United States is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly depends on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China spends about 8% of its GDP on infrastructure on average, compared to only 2.4% in the United States [1]. Moreover, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States relies largely on local and state government spending to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions fund most infrastructure at the national level, but only 25% of U.S. public infrastructure funding in 2017 came from the federal government, a figure well below the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government is taking less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and the amount of new investment in infrastructure has been declining since the early 2000s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(2) Has the federal government made a big investment in infrastructure in history?</p><p>Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the federal government of the United States has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditure of 18 billion USD, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment was in Obama's ARRA Act, which spent $120 billion on infrastructure, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's interstate highway cost $25 billion, or about 5.6 percent of 1956 GDP, and Clinton's information highway plan totaled 400 billion, or 5.8 percent of 1993 GDP. Infrastructure spending posted on the Biden campaign website is about $1.3 trillion, or about 6.1% of GDP in 2019, the second-largest investment since the last century.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Roosevelt's New Deal</p><p>After the Great Depression, to stimulate the recovery of employment, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that employment opportunities could be directly created through extensive public works programs. Through the establishment of the Federal Economic Relief Agency, the Public Works Administration (PWA), and the Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA), it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government spent as much as $18 billion on engineering and direct relief costs, accounting for 31 percent of U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14 percent of U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at broad spending, the total federal spending of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of U.S. GDP in 1941.</p><p>Large-scale public works spending has also yielded remarkable results: for public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed approximately 1.14 street and highway projects totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, the WPA alone provided jobs to approximately eight million people in 1935-1943.</p><p>2. Eisenhower: Interstate Highway</p><p>In the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of the U.S. interstate highway system. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highways Act, receiving a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, a cost that would be paid for by tax revenue such as gas taxes deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90 percent of the total expenditure and the remaining 10 percent paid by the states. The cost of building the interstate highway accounted for about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.</p><p>Clinton: \"Information Highway Project\"</p><p>In 1992, U.S. presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information highway during his campaign. After Clinton came to power in 1993, he officially implemented the \"Information Highway Plan\". The planned investment is $400 billion over a period of 20 years to gradually lay telecom fiber optic cables to all household users. In 1994, the United States government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communication and telecommunication optical cables, and forming a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. Total investment in the Information Highway program accounted for 5.8% of U.S. GDP in 1993.</p><p>4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus bill</p><p>After the financial crisis, Obama signed the fiscal stimulus bill, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), in February 2009, with an initial total size of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the total expenditure to be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion would be spent on infrastructure projects, including: 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for federal building modernization, 31 billion for school facilities and science facilities modernization, 6 billion for water conservancy projects, and 5 billion for housing climate modification projects. The infrastructure expenditure of ARRA accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.</p><p>(3) The specific measures of Biden's infrastructure plan?</p><p>Three Key Points of the Infrastructure Plan</p><p>The \"Building Modern, Sustainable Infrastructure and a Fair, Clean Energy Future\" plan proposed on the Biden campaign website is planned to span a 10-year period with a total scale of $2 trillion, accounting for about 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we look at infrastructure expenditure alone, it is about 1.3 trillion USD, accounting for about 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plans published on the campaign website have two characteristics:</p><p>First, the content is very extensive. Plans go beyond traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also include new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development, and many other areas.</p><p>Second, the promotion of employment and the reconstruction of the middle class are the \"highlights\". It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class are a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure expansion. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in electric power will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, and investment in agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs.</p><p>Third, leave manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing migration is inherently consistent with the need for job creation. This statement has been mentioned several times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automakers are encouraged to build or restructure full-vehicle or component factories domestically; Invest in battery technology but make sure battery production takes place domestically and so on.</p><p>In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amounts in various areas of the infrastructure plan are still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the plan brief is very \"rough\", there is no very detailed spending plan, and only a few projects are proposed for investment, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion in the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; Invest $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges in the first year of administration; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas; Additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year Transformation Project Fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and more. The amount of investment clearly mentioned in the plan brief is only more than 800 billion US dollars.</p><p>2. Not only infrastructure, but also plans to cover eight major areas</p><p>Overall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not only limited to the \"infrastructure field\", but covers a wide range of eight areas, including modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, community equality development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).</p><p>First, build modern infrastructure facilities.</p><p>1) Road rehabilitation and construction. In the first year of his administration, he spent $50 billion on repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The Second Railway Revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. Build high-quality public transportation systems in cities with more than 100,000 people by 2030. Additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve airports. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport improvement projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA Transportation Infrastructure Grant Project grant from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion a year to the Army Corps of Engineers to modernize locks in inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor water systems for lead and other contaminants, and hold polluting businesses accountable. Investing in water technology research and development, calling for private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help five cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers to participate, etc. 8) Establish a fund for transformation projects. Establish a $40 billion, 10-year Transformation Project Fund to provide assistance to large and complex infrastructure projects.</p><p>Second, enable the U.S. auto industry to lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.</p><p>1) On the demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrading of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of zero emissions for all new U.S. -made buses by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automakers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in the country. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technologies over five years while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, providing an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convening the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards to reduce air pollution.</p><p>Third, clean electricity investment: carbon-free electricity generation by 2035.</p><p>1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free electricity generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform and expand the regional electricity market. 3) Establish energy efficiency and clean electricity standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support a larger regional power market and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Investments in research and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently store it, and utilize it will be doubled.</p><p>Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.</p><p>1) Promote school modernization. Investing $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade child care and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings within 4 years, and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects for low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Build net zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halving the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more money into low-income communities to promote affordable housing and small business development.</p><p>Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.</p><p>1) Add $400 billion in federal procurement during the first term, with one focus on buying key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials over the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve problems such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capacity facilities, and other critical infrastructure.</p><p>Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.</p><p>1) Calling and mobilizing a new generation of Americans through civic climate organizations to commit to the work of protecting the environment and fighting climate change. 2) Make upfront investment to clean up the damage and impact on the environment caused by previous resource exploitation. 3) Maintaining America's farms and ranches. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon agriculture markets; Pursuing pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthen the security and resilience of food supplies; Ensuring fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.</p><p>Seventh, community equality and development.</p><p>1) Provide $5 billion annually to expand the New Markets Tax Credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poverty-stricken areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities and government administrative agencies, etc.). 5) Fully implement the \"10-20-30 Plan (allocating 10% of funding to counties where 20% or more of the population lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years in all federal programs)\".</p><p>Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises throughout the country.</p><p>1) Revitalize manufacturing. Fourfold funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support to small manufacturers in global competition; Develop low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expansion or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Financing more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program through 2025, increasing federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion in funding to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting the transfer of technology from public universities to the private sector.</p><p>(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure on the US economy?</p><p>How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effectiveness by American academics and think tanks: 1) A 2014 study by the University of Maryland showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment would increase GDP growth by about $3, which would have a greater impact during the economic recession. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan — roughly 0.6 percent of GDP — would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) Every 1 percentage point increase in GDP in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy, according to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the rate of return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies, every $100 spent…would increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier for infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.</p><p>We can learn from the evaluation results of the infrastructure effect of American academics and think tanks, and roughly estimate the impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the American economy and employment as a whole.</p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is about 1.3 trillion USD, with an investment cycle of 10 years. The average annual expenditure is about 130 billion USD, accounting for about 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Estimated according to the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), the additional output contribution to GDP will be about 52 billion ~390 billion USD every year in the next ten years, which is about 0.2% ~1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.</p><p>2) Impact on employment: According to the University of Chicago's employment impact estimate, 1.3 trillion infrastructure spending will create more than 2 million jobs a year over the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be generated in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next decade.</p><p>3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to 2% to 9% GDP growth in the short term, \"significantly\" GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth would lead to around 3% to 4% growth in S&P 500 company earnings [4].</p><p>2. Biden Tax Increase: How to Increase?</p><p>Similarly, we understand Biden's tax hike from four questions. First, is Biden determined to raise taxes, and what is the purpose of raising taxes? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, how does the tax increase affect the U.S. economy?</p><p>(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?</p><p>Is Biden going to raise taxes? Tax increases should be a yes. First, Biden clearly put forward the tax increase plan during the election campaign, which is one of his campaign slogans, and it is highly likely that it will be fulfilled. Second, Biden's campaign website says that up to $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by \"ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair share of [tax].\" Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that some of the spending on the next bill, a reference to Biden's Reconstruction Plan Act, will be raised by tax hikes.</p><p>Biden's three purposes of raising taxes are to raise money for the reconstruction plan, to deliver on campaign promises, and to adjust the tax system to promote tax equity and to regulate the wealth gap through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich and high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income earners has obviously expanded.</p><p>(2) Is there a precedent for tax increases?</p><p>Prior to 1950, the maximum marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increases was to finance the war. During World War I and World War II, the maximum marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax increased sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States has been gradually declining, with many tax cuts and few tax increases.</p><p>Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: the Kennedy tax cut in 1963, the Carter tax cut in 1979, the Reagan tax cut in the 1980s, the Bush tax cut in 2001, and the Trump tax cut in 2017.</p><p>The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three.</p><p>The first time was in the late 1960s. The main reason for the tax increase was war. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenses of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a \"Vietnam War Surtax\", which was abolished after 1970.</p><p>The second time was in 1990, in response to the deficit increase caused by the sharp increase of social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, Bush passed the Supervisory Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 in 1990, which increased the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.</p><p>The third was the Clinton tax increase in 1993, and this was also the largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase in 1993, raising the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax from 31 percent to 39.6 percent and the maximum marginal rate of corporate income tax from 34 percent to 35 percent. It is worth noting that the increase of the highest marginal personal income tax rate from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by tax increases, but because the Bush tax cut period expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before tax cuts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(3) How does Biden plan to raise taxes?</p><p>Biden's tax hikes are mainly in two ways,<b>First, payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax for high-income groups, and second, re-increase the corporate income tax rate and adjust some corporate taxes.</b>As can be seen from the specific details of the following provisions, Biden's tax increase target is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have been increased.</p><p>1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces</p><p>1) A 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax, split equally between employer and employee, for those earning more than $400,000 a year. Under the preceding tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 a year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.</p><p>2) Increase the maximum personal income tax rate on taxable income over $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% under current law; For the group with an annual income of more than $400,000, even with the tax benefit of itemized deductions, its personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restoring the \"Pease Limit\" on deductions for items with taxable income in excess of $400,000; Phase out eligible business income deductions for groups with taxable income exceeding $400,000.</p><p>3) Taxing long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at an ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains taxes.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Expand the Labor Income Tax Credit for childless employees over the age of 65 to provide renewable energy related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependents Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum repayment rate from 35% to 50%. Increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000 in 2021, along with an additional credit of $600 for children under 6, which will be fully refunded by the CTC. It is worth mentioning that the measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the tax credit policy for first-time homebuyers with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.</p><p>5) Restoring rates and exemptions for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After the Trump tax reform in 2017, the exemption for estate and gift taxes for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, with the tax rate still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the exemption will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40 percent to 45 percent.</p><p>6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts, such as 401 (k) s and IRAs, by providing refundable tax credits in place of traditional deductions; Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expand the premium tax credit under the Affordable Care Act; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credits for low-income earners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Adjustment of corporate tax system: tax burden increases, but manufacturing industry is encouraged to return</p><p>1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.</p><p>2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax – businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.</p><p>3) Doubling the Global Intangible Low Tax Income rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. Proposed country-by-country assessment of GILTI in overseas subsidiaries, removing the provision that treated GILTI of less than 10% of qualified corporate asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.</p><p>Prior to the 2017 tax reform, the U.S. generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and U.S. companies could apply to defer taxation on the active business earnings of overseas subsidiaries until the earnings were repatriated to the U.S. as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the earnings from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies, which would not be taxed even if they were repatriated (but still taxed on the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). Concerned that completely exempting multinational corporations from overseas income could exacerbate their practice of transferring profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, the US Congress has created a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on global low-tax income from intangible assets to discourage profit transfers. GILTI refers to income generated from intangible assets such as patents, trademarks and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly mobile, and the tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Establish manufacturing tax credits; Expand and make the tax credits in new markets permanent; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including tax credits for carbon capture, use and storage and tax credits for residential energy efficiency, and restore the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Electric Vehicle Tax Credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.</p><p>5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: a 10% surtax on those businesses that \"move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market\". Provide a preferential 10% \"Made in America\" tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have been closed or are about to be closed, reorganize facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wage scale.</p><p>(4) The Impact of Biden's Tax Increase on the US Economy</p><p>The impact of tax increases on the economy is more complicated, and we mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increase on the US economy.<b>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth over the next decade, reducing GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% over the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax hikes could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax hikes would reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).</b>In addition, the Tax Foundation expects that the tax increase will reduce wages and lose jobs, narrowing the income gap but reducing the overall residents' after-tax income.</p><p>Estimates of the Tax Foundation</p><p>1) Impact of fiscal revenue: The Biden tax plan will raise about $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, the capital stock by 3.75%, the long-term average wage level by 1.15%, and the loss of 542,000 jobs. 3) Impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will result in a reduction in after-tax income of around 7.7% for the richest 1% of taxpayers by 2030, and an average decline of 1.9% for all taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. TaxPolicy Center</p><p>1) Economic impact: The GDP of the United States will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next decade, and the impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (about 8% of total revenue in those 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. The tax program's impact on federal revenue will turn positive by 2040, and its positive effects will gradually increase in subsequent years in 2040.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3. Key time point: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?</p><p>At present, Biden's team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time nodes worth paying attention to:</p><p><b>The first key point in time: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden first proposed the \"American Relief Plan\" on January 14 this year, he made it clear: \"Next month, in my first joint session of Congress, I will present my 'Recovery Plan to Build Back for a Better Future' [5].\" Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the pandemic is the number one priority. On February 11, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said, \"We will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 relief bill.\" Because the American Relief Plan encountered resistance in Congress and was not officially implemented until March 14, Biden has yet to attend the joint session of Congress, and the reconstruction plan has not been formally proposed.</p><p>When is the joint session of Congress convened? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesman Psaki said, \"There is no time set yet…We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will keep in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when.\" Historically, the latest time for a president to attend a joint session of Congress and deliver a \"speech to a joint session of Congress\" is February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, [6] when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget proposal to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan can pass the committees under the House and Senate in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale and specific project details of the reconstruction plan will be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>Second key point in time: October.</b></p><p>The implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. Democrats currently control the House and can easily pass bills in the House. But the Democrats have only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republicans, and cannot bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes are needed). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. One is to secure the support of at least 10 more Republican senators on the premise of guaranteeing the agreement of all Democratic senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only requires 51 votes to pass the Senate.</p><p>\"We hear that the so-called infrastructure bill that could be introduced in the coming months could actually be a Trojan horse hiding big tax hikes and other jobs-damaging left-wing policies,\" Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday.</p><p>For Biden's reconstruction plan to come to fruition, the biggest possibility is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once in a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process once in each fiscal year, but the bill generally covers not only one area, but basically covers all three areas. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once in a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the \"quota\" of fiscal year 2021. If you want to start the budget reconciliation process again, you can only wait until fiscal year 2022. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can start the \"budget reconciliation process\" again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to pass the reconstruction plan bill quickly. For example, House Speaker Pelosi wants Congress to act quickly to develop a transformative infrastructure plan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>IV Appendix: Details of Biden's Reconstruction Plan</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1584436024241","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? 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How much impact does it have on the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 一瑜中的</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 21:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Yu Fu Chunsheng</p><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p>After the $1.9 trillion relief landed, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan quickly heated up. As the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report takes the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blueprint, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures and impact), in order to make a rough understanding of the measures and impact of the formal reconstruction plan in the future.</p><p>Biden Infrastructure: How to Build?</p><p><b>1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</b></p><p>Very necessary. First, the state of infrastructure is worrying. According to the latest assessment by ASCE, infrastructure in the United States is still \"mostly below standard\", showing a relatively severe \"deterioration\" condition. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the infrastructure sector in 2019, and fifth in 2002. Second, there is a massive investment gap. In the next decade, the total investment gap in infrastructure has reached 2.59 trillion USD. Finally, infrastructure spending is far lower than in major economies, with Europe spending 5% of GDP, China spending about 8% of GDP, and the United States only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually \"out of reach\". As the infrastructure stock continues to grow, state and local governments have to shoulder more operating and maintenance costs, and the amount of new investment has declined since the early 2000s.</p><p><b>2. Is there any precedent for federal government-led infrastructure investment?</b></p><p>Historically, Biden's infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States in the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditure of 18 billion USD, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The least invested was the Obama ARRA Act, which spent $120 billion on infrastructure, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's interstate highway cost $25 billion, or 5.6 percent of 1956 GDP, and Clinton's information highway plan totaled 400 billion, or 5.8 percent of 1993 GDP. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is about $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, the second largest investment since the last century.</p><p><b>3. What are the specific measures for Biden's infrastructure?</b></p><p>The plan proposed on the Biden campaign website is $2 trillion over a 10-year period, representing 9.3% of 2019 GDP; Among them, infrastructure investment was USD 1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very broad. It covers eight areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean electricity investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Employment promotion and the reconstruction of the middle class are the \"highlights\". 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is inherently consistent with the need to create employment. It should be noted that the investment amount in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward a clear investment amount.</p><p><b>4. What impact does Biden's infrastructure have on the U.S. economy?</b></p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated by the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (evaluated by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion to 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on jobs: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next decade. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and \"significantly increase\" in GDP in the long term.</p><p>Biden Tax Raises: How?</p><p><b>First, Biden's tax increase is basically certain.</b></p><p>Three reasons: 1) Tax increases are one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that they will be fulfilled. 2) It is explicitly stated on the Biden campaign website that 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by \"ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair share of (tax) revenue\". 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that some of the spending on the next bill (the Biden Rebuild Plan) will be raised by tax hikes.</p><p><b>Second, there is a precedent for tax increases.</b></p><p>Since the 1950s, the overall income tax rate in the United States has shown a downward trend, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the \"Vietnam War Surtax\" imposed in 1968-1970 to cover Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the growing deficit. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was the largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. Its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.</p><p><b>Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; Corporate tax burden increased, but manufacturing industry was encouraged to return.</b></p><p>The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have been raised. On the one hand, increase the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups, etc. On the other hand, re-increase the corporate income tax rate and adjust some other corporate taxes.</p><p><b>4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the U.S. economy?</b></p><p>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth over the next decade, reducing GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% over the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax hikes could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax hikes would reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over the decade). In addition, the Tax Foundation expects that the tax increase will reduce wages and lose jobs, narrow the income gap but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.</p><p><b>Two key points in time: When is a formal redevelopment plan likely to be launched?</b></p><p><b>The first key point in time: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden proposed the \"American Relief Plan\" on January 14 this year, he made it clear: \"When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will present my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future.'\" Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the pandemic is the first priority. On February 11, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said, \"We will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 relief bill.\" Because the American relief plan encountered resistance in Congress and was not officially implemented until March 14, Biden has not attended the joint session of Congress so far, and the reconstruction plan has not been formally proposed.</p><p>When is the joint session of Congress convened? That's the key. March 24 White House spokesman Psaki said that no time has been set yet. Historically, the latest time for a president to attend a joint session of Congress and deliver a \"speech to a joint session of Congress\" is February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget proposal to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan can pass the committees under the House and Senate in May, so we expect that the total scale and specific project details of the reconstruction plan will probably be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>Second key point in time: October.</b></p><p>First, the Democratic Party can start the \"budget reconciliation process\" again after October. Second, the positive statements from top Democrats suggest that they will move the reconstruction plan to a vote in Congress as quickly as possible or move the reconstruction plan to a budget reconciliation process at the start of the new fiscal year.</p><p>Risk alert: Disagreement within the Democratic Party over the reconstruction plan.</p><p><b>Report Directory</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Report Text</p><p>After the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief Plan, discussions on the Biden Reconstruction Plan (\"Biden Infrastructure Plan\") (\"Biden Infrastructure Plan\"), which is also referred to by domestic and foreign reports and reports because most of its measures are related to infrastructure), have rapidly heated up. According to Bloomberg's report on March 22nd, the near-term reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House press secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd, \"Time is running fast, so he will discuss with his team this week what options, scale and scope are available.\" According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will present his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he first attends the joint session of Congress and delivers a \"speech at the joint session of Congress,\" so the reconstruction plan may be officially \"unveiled\" in April.</p><p>As Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the campaign as a blueprint for analysis.</p><p>1. Biden Infrastructure: How to \"Build\"?</p><p>Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four questions. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the US government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment from historical comparison? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure project? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure project on the US economy?</p><p>(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?</p><p>The current state of infrastructure in the United States is worrying, and large-scale investment is very necessary. Most of the infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful lives and are nearing the point of \"scrapping\".</p><p>First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation level is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure at \"D +\" (A-F) in 2017 and upgraded to \"C-\" in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also indicates that US infrastructure is still \"mostly below standard\", showing a relatively severe \"deterioration\" condition. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, down eight places in 17 years.</p><p>Second, there is a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States at present. If it is not made up, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total U.S. infrastructure investment shortfall has reached $2.59 trillion in the next decade, and if it is not made up, the U.S. will lose 10 trillion GDP and 2.4 trillion exports by 2039. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study argues that $150 billion in annual infrastructure investment is needed from 2017 to 2030 to keep up with the demand for infrastructure in the U.S. economy.</p><p>Third, infrastructure expenditure in the United States is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly depends on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China spends about 8% of its GDP on infrastructure on average, compared to only 2.4% in the United States [1]. Moreover, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States relies largely on local and state government spending to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions fund most infrastructure at the national level, but only 25% of U.S. public infrastructure funding in 2017 came from the federal government, a figure well below the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government is taking less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and the amount of new investment in infrastructure has been declining since the early 2000s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(2) Has the federal government made a big investment in infrastructure in history?</p><p>Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the federal government of the United States has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditure of 18 billion USD, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment was in Obama's ARRA Act, which spent $120 billion on infrastructure, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's interstate highway cost $25 billion, or about 5.6 percent of 1956 GDP, and Clinton's information highway plan totaled 400 billion, or 5.8 percent of 1993 GDP. Infrastructure spending posted on the Biden campaign website is about $1.3 trillion, or about 6.1% of GDP in 2019, the second-largest investment since the last century.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Roosevelt's New Deal</p><p>After the Great Depression, to stimulate the recovery of employment, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that employment opportunities could be directly created through extensive public works programs. Through the establishment of the Federal Economic Relief Agency, the Public Works Administration (PWA), and the Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA), it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government spent as much as $18 billion on engineering and direct relief costs, accounting for 31 percent of U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14 percent of U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at broad spending, the total federal spending of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of U.S. GDP in 1941.</p><p>Large-scale public works spending has also yielded remarkable results: for public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed approximately 1.14 street and highway projects totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, the WPA alone provided jobs to approximately eight million people in 1935-1943.</p><p>2. Eisenhower: Interstate Highway</p><p>In the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of the U.S. interstate highway system. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highways Act, receiving a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, a cost that would be paid for by tax revenue such as gas taxes deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90 percent of the total expenditure and the remaining 10 percent paid by the states. The cost of building the interstate highway accounted for about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.</p><p>Clinton: \"Information Highway Project\"</p><p>In 1992, U.S. presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information highway during his campaign. After Clinton came to power in 1993, he officially implemented the \"Information Highway Plan\". The planned investment is $400 billion over a period of 20 years to gradually lay telecom fiber optic cables to all household users. In 1994, the United States government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communication and telecommunication optical cables, and forming a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. Total investment in the Information Highway program accounted for 5.8% of U.S. GDP in 1993.</p><p>4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus bill</p><p>After the financial crisis, Obama signed the fiscal stimulus bill, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), in February 2009, with an initial total size of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the total expenditure to be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion would be spent on infrastructure projects, including: 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for federal building modernization, 31 billion for school facilities and science facilities modernization, 6 billion for water conservancy projects, and 5 billion for housing climate modification projects. The infrastructure expenditure of ARRA accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.</p><p>(3) The specific measures of Biden's infrastructure plan?</p><p>Three Key Points of the Infrastructure Plan</p><p>The \"Building Modern, Sustainable Infrastructure and a Fair, Clean Energy Future\" plan proposed on the Biden campaign website is planned to span a 10-year period with a total scale of $2 trillion, accounting for about 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we look at infrastructure expenditure alone, it is about 1.3 trillion USD, accounting for about 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plans published on the campaign website have two characteristics:</p><p>First, the content is very extensive. Plans go beyond traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also include new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development, and many other areas.</p><p>Second, the promotion of employment and the reconstruction of the middle class are the \"highlights\". It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class are a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure expansion. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in electric power will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, and investment in agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs.</p><p>Third, leave manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing migration is inherently consistent with the need for job creation. This statement has been mentioned several times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automakers are encouraged to build or restructure full-vehicle or component factories domestically; Invest in battery technology but make sure battery production takes place domestically and so on.</p><p>In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amounts in various areas of the infrastructure plan are still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the plan brief is very \"rough\", there is no very detailed spending plan, and only a few projects are proposed for investment, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion in the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; Invest $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges in the first year of administration; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas; Additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year Transformation Project Fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and more. The amount of investment clearly mentioned in the plan brief is only more than 800 billion US dollars.</p><p>2. Not only infrastructure, but also plans to cover eight major areas</p><p>Overall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not only limited to the \"infrastructure field\", but covers a wide range of eight areas, including modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, community equality development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).</p><p>First, build modern infrastructure facilities.</p><p>1) Road rehabilitation and construction. In the first year of his administration, he spent $50 billion on repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The Second Railway Revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. Build high-quality public transportation systems in cities with more than 100,000 people by 2030. Additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve airports. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport improvement projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA Transportation Infrastructure Grant Project grant from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion a year to the Army Corps of Engineers to modernize locks in inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor water systems for lead and other contaminants, and hold polluting businesses accountable. Investing in water technology research and development, calling for private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help five cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers to participate, etc. 8) Establish a fund for transformation projects. Establish a $40 billion, 10-year Transformation Project Fund to provide assistance to large and complex infrastructure projects.</p><p>Second, enable the U.S. auto industry to lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.</p><p>1) On the demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrading of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of zero emissions for all new U.S. -made buses by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automakers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in the country. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technologies over five years while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, providing an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convening the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards to reduce air pollution.</p><p>Third, clean electricity investment: carbon-free electricity generation by 2035.</p><p>1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free electricity generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform and expand the regional electricity market. 3) Establish energy efficiency and clean electricity standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support a larger regional power market and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Investments in research and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently store it, and utilize it will be doubled.</p><p>Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.</p><p>1) Promote school modernization. Investing $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade child care and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings within 4 years, and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects for low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Build net zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halving the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more money into low-income communities to promote affordable housing and small business development.</p><p>Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.</p><p>1) Add $400 billion in federal procurement during the first term, with one focus on buying key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials over the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve problems such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capacity facilities, and other critical infrastructure.</p><p>Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.</p><p>1) Calling and mobilizing a new generation of Americans through civic climate organizations to commit to the work of protecting the environment and fighting climate change. 2) Make upfront investment to clean up the damage and impact on the environment caused by previous resource exploitation. 3) Maintaining America's farms and ranches. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon agriculture markets; Pursuing pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthen the security and resilience of food supplies; Ensuring fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.</p><p>Seventh, community equality and development.</p><p>1) Provide $5 billion annually to expand the New Markets Tax Credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poverty-stricken areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities and government administrative agencies, etc.). 5) Fully implement the \"10-20-30 Plan (allocating 10% of funding to counties where 20% or more of the population lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years in all federal programs)\".</p><p>Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises throughout the country.</p><p>1) Revitalize manufacturing. Fourfold funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support to small manufacturers in global competition; Develop low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expansion or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Financing more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program through 2025, increasing federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion in funding to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting the transfer of technology from public universities to the private sector.</p><p>(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure on the US economy?</p><p>How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effectiveness by American academics and think tanks: 1) A 2014 study by the University of Maryland showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment would increase GDP growth by about $3, which would have a greater impact during the economic recession. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan — roughly 0.6 percent of GDP — would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) Every 1 percentage point increase in GDP in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy, according to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the rate of return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies, every $100 spent…would increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier for infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.</p><p>We can learn from the evaluation results of the infrastructure effect of American academics and think tanks, and roughly estimate the impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the American economy and employment as a whole.</p><p>1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is about 1.3 trillion USD, with an investment cycle of 10 years. The average annual expenditure is about 130 billion USD, accounting for about 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Estimated according to the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), the additional output contribution to GDP will be about 52 billion ~390 billion USD every year in the next ten years, which is about 0.2% ~1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.</p><p>2) Impact on employment: According to the University of Chicago's employment impact estimate, 1.3 trillion infrastructure spending will create more than 2 million jobs a year over the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be generated in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next decade.</p><p>3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to 2% to 9% GDP growth in the short term, \"significantly\" GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth would lead to around 3% to 4% growth in S&P 500 company earnings [4].</p><p>2. Biden Tax Increase: How to Increase?</p><p>Similarly, we understand Biden's tax hike from four questions. First, is Biden determined to raise taxes, and what is the purpose of raising taxes? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, how does the tax increase affect the U.S. economy?</p><p>(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?</p><p>Is Biden going to raise taxes? Tax increases should be a yes. First, Biden clearly put forward the tax increase plan during the election campaign, which is one of his campaign slogans, and it is highly likely that it will be fulfilled. Second, Biden's campaign website says that up to $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by \"ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair share of [tax].\" Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that some of the spending on the next bill, a reference to Biden's Reconstruction Plan Act, will be raised by tax hikes.</p><p>Biden's three purposes of raising taxes are to raise money for the reconstruction plan, to deliver on campaign promises, and to adjust the tax system to promote tax equity and to regulate the wealth gap through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich and high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income earners has obviously expanded.</p><p>(2) Is there a precedent for tax increases?</p><p>Prior to 1950, the maximum marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increases was to finance the war. During World War I and World War II, the maximum marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax increased sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States has been gradually declining, with many tax cuts and few tax increases.</p><p>Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: the Kennedy tax cut in 1963, the Carter tax cut in 1979, the Reagan tax cut in the 1980s, the Bush tax cut in 2001, and the Trump tax cut in 2017.</p><p>The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three.</p><p>The first time was in the late 1960s. The main reason for the tax increase was war. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenses of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a \"Vietnam War Surtax\", which was abolished after 1970.</p><p>The second time was in 1990, in response to the deficit increase caused by the sharp increase of social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, Bush passed the Supervisory Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 in 1990, which increased the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.</p><p>The third was the Clinton tax increase in 1993, and this was also the largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase in 1993, raising the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax from 31 percent to 39.6 percent and the maximum marginal rate of corporate income tax from 34 percent to 35 percent. It is worth noting that the increase of the highest marginal personal income tax rate from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by tax increases, but because the Bush tax cut period expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before tax cuts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(3) How does Biden plan to raise taxes?</p><p>Biden's tax hikes are mainly in two ways,<b>First, payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax for high-income groups, and second, re-increase the corporate income tax rate and adjust some corporate taxes.</b>As can be seen from the specific details of the following provisions, Biden's tax increase target is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have been increased.</p><p>1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces</p><p>1) A 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax, split equally between employer and employee, for those earning more than $400,000 a year. Under the preceding tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 a year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.</p><p>2) Increase the maximum personal income tax rate on taxable income over $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% under current law; For the group with an annual income of more than $400,000, even with the tax benefit of itemized deductions, its personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restoring the \"Pease Limit\" on deductions for items with taxable income in excess of $400,000; Phase out eligible business income deductions for groups with taxable income exceeding $400,000.</p><p>3) Taxing long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at an ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains taxes.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Expand the Labor Income Tax Credit for childless employees over the age of 65 to provide renewable energy related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependents Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum repayment rate from 35% to 50%. Increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000 in 2021, along with an additional credit of $600 for children under 6, which will be fully refunded by the CTC. It is worth mentioning that the measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the tax credit policy for first-time homebuyers with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.</p><p>5) Restoring rates and exemptions for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After the Trump tax reform in 2017, the exemption for estate and gift taxes for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, with the tax rate still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the exemption will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40 percent to 45 percent.</p><p>6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts, such as 401 (k) s and IRAs, by providing refundable tax credits in place of traditional deductions; Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expand the premium tax credit under the Affordable Care Act; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credits for low-income earners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. Adjustment of corporate tax system: tax burden increases, but manufacturing industry is encouraged to return</p><p>1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.</p><p>2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax – businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.</p><p>3) Doubling the Global Intangible Low Tax Income rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. Proposed country-by-country assessment of GILTI in overseas subsidiaries, removing the provision that treated GILTI of less than 10% of qualified corporate asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.</p><p>Prior to the 2017 tax reform, the U.S. generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and U.S. companies could apply to defer taxation on the active business earnings of overseas subsidiaries until the earnings were repatriated to the U.S. as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the earnings from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies, which would not be taxed even if they were repatriated (but still taxed on the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). Concerned that completely exempting multinational corporations from overseas income could exacerbate their practice of transferring profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, the US Congress has created a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on global low-tax income from intangible assets to discourage profit transfers. GILTI refers to income generated from intangible assets such as patents, trademarks and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly mobile, and the tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.</p><p>4) Tax credits: Establish manufacturing tax credits; Expand and make the tax credits in new markets permanent; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including tax credits for carbon capture, use and storage and tax credits for residential energy efficiency, and restore the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Electric Vehicle Tax Credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.</p><p>5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: a 10% surtax on those businesses that \"move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market\". Provide a preferential 10% \"Made in America\" tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have been closed or are about to be closed, reorganize facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wage scale.</p><p>(4) The Impact of Biden's Tax Increase on the US Economy</p><p>The impact of tax increases on the economy is more complicated, and we mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increase on the US economy.<b>As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth over the next decade, reducing GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% over the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax hikes could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax hikes would reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).</b>In addition, the Tax Foundation expects that the tax increase will reduce wages and lose jobs, narrowing the income gap but reducing the overall residents' after-tax income.</p><p>Estimates of the Tax Foundation</p><p>1) Impact of fiscal revenue: The Biden tax plan will raise about $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, the capital stock by 3.75%, the long-term average wage level by 1.15%, and the loss of 542,000 jobs. 3) Impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will result in a reduction in after-tax income of around 7.7% for the richest 1% of taxpayers by 2030, and an average decline of 1.9% for all taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. TaxPolicy Center</p><p>1) Economic impact: The GDP of the United States will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next decade, and the impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (about 8% of total revenue in those 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. The tax program's impact on federal revenue will turn positive by 2040, and its positive effects will gradually increase in subsequent years in 2040.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3. Key time point: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?</p><p>At present, Biden's team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time nodes worth paying attention to:</p><p><b>The first key point in time: April-May this year.</b></p><p>When Biden first proposed the \"American Relief Plan\" on January 14 this year, he made it clear: \"Next month, in my first joint session of Congress, I will present my 'Recovery Plan to Build Back for a Better Future' [5].\" Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the pandemic is the number one priority. On February 11, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi said, \"We will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 relief bill.\" Because the American Relief Plan encountered resistance in Congress and was not officially implemented until March 14, Biden has yet to attend the joint session of Congress, and the reconstruction plan has not been formally proposed.</p><p>When is the joint session of Congress convened? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesman Psaki said, \"There is no time set yet…We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will keep in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when.\" Historically, the latest time for a president to attend a joint session of Congress and deliver a \"speech to a joint session of Congress\" is February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend a joint session of Congress in April, [6] when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget proposal to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan can pass the committees under the House and Senate in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale and specific project details of the reconstruction plan will be announced in April-May.</p><p><b>Second key point in time: October.</b></p><p>The implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. Democrats currently control the House and can easily pass bills in the House. But the Democrats have only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republicans, and cannot bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes are needed). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. One is to secure the support of at least 10 more Republican senators on the premise of guaranteeing the agreement of all Democratic senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only requires 51 votes to pass the Senate.</p><p>\"We hear that the so-called infrastructure bill that could be introduced in the coming months could actually be a Trojan horse hiding big tax hikes and other jobs-damaging left-wing policies,\" Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday.</p><p>For Biden's reconstruction plan to come to fruition, the biggest possibility is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once in a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process once in each fiscal year, but the bill generally covers not only one area, but basically covers all three areas. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once in a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the \"quota\" of fiscal year 2021. If you want to start the budget reconciliation process again, you can only wait until fiscal year 2022. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can start the \"budget reconciliation process\" again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to pass the reconstruction plan bill quickly. For example, House Speaker Pelosi wants Congress to act quickly to develop a transformative infrastructure plan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>IV Appendix: Details of Biden's Reconstruction Plan</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA\"> 一瑜中的</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff7dc206228e5f0b17e2120c141f32db","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170764582","content_text":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、具体措施、影响）去理解拜登的基建和加税，以期对未来正式的重建计划的措施和影响进行大致摸底。拜登基建：怎么建？一、美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？非常有必要。首先，基础设施状况堪忧。据ASCE最新评估，美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。据《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名居全球第13位，2002年时则居第5位。其次，存在大规模投资缺口。未来十年基建总投资缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元。最后，基建支出力度远低于主要经济体，欧洲基建支出相当于GDP的5％，中国基建支出约占GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％。美国主要依赖地方和州政府进行基建投资，但地方政府逐渐「力不能及」。随着基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，新增投资额自21世纪初以来一直下降。二、有无联邦政府主导基建投资的先例？从历史比较看，拜登基建是上世纪来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来，美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程类支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登基建投资的规模大约1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。三、拜登基建的具体措施有哪些？拜登竞选网站上提出的计划规模为2 万亿美元，为期10年，占2019年GDP的9.3%；其中基建投资1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%。计划有三个重点：1）内容十分广泛。涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域。2）促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。3）把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。需注意的是，计划中各领域的投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。四、拜登基建对美国经济有何影响？1）对GDP的影响：10年里，每年基建支出约1300亿，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（马里兰大学和CBO的评估），每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美银估计，拜登基建计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」。拜登加税：怎么加？一、拜登加税基本是确定的。三大理由：1）加税是拜登竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。2）在拜登竞选网站上明确写到， 1.3万亿基建投资将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集。3）财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（拜登重建计划）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。二、加税有先例可寻。1950年代以来，美国所得税率整体呈下降趋势，减税多，加税少。主要的加税有三次，一是1968-1970年为应对越战开支而征收的「越战附加税」。二是1990年老布什为应对赤字增长而加税。三是1993年克林顿加税，这也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税，其目的也是为了削减财政赤字。三、富人税负增加，中下阶层减负；企业税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流。拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。一方面，提高富裕群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，另一方面，重新上调企业所得税率，对其他一些企业税进行调整。四、拜登加税对美国经济有何影响？就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占10年总收入的8%）。此外税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。两个关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「在我下个月第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’。」拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，目前还没有确定时间。历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，所以我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。第一，10月以后民主党可再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，民主党高层的积极表态表明其会尽可能快地推动重建计划进入国会表决或者在新财年伊始就推动重建计划再走预算和解程序。风险提示：民主党内部就重建计划产生分歧。报告目录报告正文在1.9万亿美国救济计划落地后，关于拜登重建计划（Build Back Better Recovery Plan，因其大部分措施与基建相关，国内外相关报道和报告也将之称为「拜登基建计划」）的讨论热度迅速升温。据彭博3月22日的报道，近期重建计划方案将递交给拜登，且该计划还包含了加税方案。白宫新闻秘书普萨基也在22日表示，「时间快了，所以他本周将与他的团队讨论有哪些选择，规模和范围。」根据拜登在提出救济计划时的表态，他将在第一次出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」时，向国会议员推介他的重建计划，所以重建计划或将在4月正式「亮相」。由于拜登的重建计划目前尚未公布，本篇报告就以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本来分析。一、拜登基建：怎么「建」？关于拜登基建，我们主要弄清楚四个问题即可。第一，美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？第二，有没有美国政府主导基建大投资的历史经验？如果有，从历史比较，拜登基建投资规模如何？第三，基建计划的具体领域和措施，到底如何建？第四，基建计划对美国经济的影响如何？（一）美国目前有必要大兴基建吗？美国目前的基础设施状况堪忧，非常有必要进行大规模投资。美国大部分的基础设施系统建成于1960年代，许多设施已经达到了最大使用期限，接近「报废」的关头。一、基础设施状况堪忧，综合评定等级较低。美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2017年对美国基础设施的评定等级为「D+」（等级为A-F），2021年的评定等级升至「C-」。虽然评级有所好转，但也表明美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。从全球比较看，近二十年来美国基础设施领域的评级也在不断下降。根据世界经济论坛的《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名位居全球第13位，而2002年时则位居5位，17年里下降了8个名次。二、美国目前存在大规模基建投资缺口，如果不弥补，会对经济和社会发展造成巨大负面影响。有两个评估来源：1）美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2021年报告认为，未来十年美国基建投资总缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元，如果不弥补，到2039年美国将损失10万亿GDP，损失2.4万亿出口。2）麦肯锡2016年的研究认为，从2017年至2030年，每年需要1500亿美元的基础设施投资，才能跟上美国经济对基础设施的需求。三、美国基建支出力度远低于世界主要经济体，并且主要依赖于州和地方政府。欧洲国家在建设和维护基础设施上的支出相当于GDP的5％，中国的基础设施支出平均约占其GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％[1]。此外，与多数其他工业化国家的不同之处在于，美国主要依赖地方和州政府的支出来满足其基础设施的需求。大多数欧洲国家或地区在国家层面上为大部分基础设施建设提供资金，但2017年美国公共基础设施资金中只有25％来自联邦政府，这个数字远低于1977年38％的峰值，表明联邦政府在公共基建上承担的支出责任越来越少。随着美国基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，也使得基建的新增投资额从2000年代初以来一直下降。（二）历史上联邦政府进行过基建大投资吗？上世纪以来，美国经历过四次联邦政府主导的大规模基建投资，从历史比较看，拜登基建计划是上世纪以来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程相关支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，其中基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，约占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登竞选网站上公布的基建类支出大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。1、罗斯福新政大萧条后，为了刺激就业复苏，1933年罗斯福签署《国家工业复兴法》，他认为通过广泛的的公共工程计划能直接带来就业机会。通过设立联邦经济救济署、公共工程管理局（PWA）、公共事业振兴署（WPA）等机构为美国带来了逾千万的就业。到二战前夕，联邦政府工程费用和直接救济费用支出高达180亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的31%，占1941年美国GDP比重的14%。如果从广义支出看，罗斯福新政的联邦支出总额为417亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的73%，占1941年美国GDP比重的32%。大规模公共工程支出也取得了显著成果：公共工程方面，WPA的小型项目包括了7.8万座桥梁和高架桥、57.2万英里乡村公路；而PWA在建立的前六年里即完成了约1.14个街道和公路项目，总长达3.7万英里[2]。到二战前夕，美国一共修建了近1000座飞机场、12000多个运动场、800多座校舍与医院。就业方面，仅WPA就在1935-1943年为大约八百万人提供了工作机会。2、艾森豪威尔：州际高速公路1950年代，艾森豪威尔主张修建美国州际高速公路系统。1956年，他签署了《联邦援助公路法》，获得了250亿美元的授权，用于在十年内建造4.1万英里的州际高速公路，这笔费用将由存入联邦公路信托基金的汽油税等税收收入支付，联邦政府提供约90%的总支出，其余10%由各州支付。修建州际高速公路的耗资约占1956年美国GDP的5.6%。3、克林顿：「信息高速公路计划」1992年，美国总统候选人克林顿在竞选时提出，要建设信息高速公路。1993年克林顿上台后，正式实施「信息高速公路计划」。计划投资额为4000亿美元，为期20年，逐步将电信光缆铺设到所有家庭用户。1994年，美国政府提出建设全球信息基础设施的倡议，旨在通过卫星通讯和电信光缆连通全球信息网络，形成信息共享的竞争机制[3]。信息高速公路计划总投资额占1993年美国GDP的5.8%。4、奥巴马：ARRA财政刺激法案金融危机后，奥巴马在2009年2月签署财政刺激法案《美国复苏和再投资法案（ARRA）》，初始总规模为7870亿美元，2015年国会预算办公室预计总支出大约为8400亿美元，其中大约有1200亿用于基建项目相关支出，包括：480亿用于运输和公共交通项目，310亿用于联邦建筑现代化改造，310亿用于学校设施和科学设施现代化改造，60亿用于水利项目，50亿用于房屋气候改造项目。ARRA法案的基建类支出规模占2009年GDP比重仅为0.8%。（三）拜登基建计划的具体措施？1、基建计划的三个重点拜登竞选网站上提出的「建设现代、可持续的基础设施和公平、清洁的能源未来」计划，计划跨度为期10年，总规模为 2 万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的9.3%；如果仅看基建类支出，大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%。竞选网站上公布的计划有两个特点：第一，内容十分广泛。计划不仅仅局限于传统的基础设施和清洁能源投资，还包括智慧城市和宽带等新基建，汽车工业发展，建筑改造和保障性住房建设，可持续农业，制造业振兴和中小企业发展，社区平等和发展等多个领域。第二，促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。可以说，增加就业和中产阶级重建是拜登大兴基建的一大主要目的。在拜登的设想里，计划可以大幅创造新的就业岗位，比如：基建领域的投资将创造数百万个就业机会，汽车工业领域将创造100万个就业机会，电力领域的投资将创造数百万个就业岗位，建筑和住房领域投资将创造100万个高薪岗位，农业保护领域将创造25万个工作岗位等。第三，把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁，与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。这一说法在计划中多次被提及，比如：确保鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂；投资电池技术但要确保电池生产在国内进行等等。此外，值得说明的是，基建计划中各个领域的具体投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。由于该计划简介十分「粗糙」，并没有十分细致的支出计划，只在少数项目上提出了投资额，比如：在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购（具体采购计划没有说明）；1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑；执政第一年投入500亿美元修复高速公路、公路和桥梁；投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施，提供600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入；10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目；400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金用于资助重大基建项目等等。计划简介中明确提及投资额度的，零零散散加总，仅有8000多亿美元。2、不仅是基建，计划覆盖八大领域整体来看，拜登的基建计划不仅仅是局限在「基建领域」，覆盖面非常广泛，涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域（下文是简介，详情参见附录）。第一，构建现代化的基建设施。1）道路修复和建设。执政第一年投入500亿美元用于修复高速公路、道路和桥梁，对边远地区进行交通投资等。2）第二次铁路革命。大力投资高铁，完善客运和货运铁路体系，推动铁路系统电气化，减少柴油排放。3）大力发展公共交通。到2030年，在超过10万人口的城市构建高质量的公共交通系统。在10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目。4）改进机场。为机场改善计划提供双倍资金，为主要机场改造项目提供竞争性赠款，全面实施下一代航空技术系统等。5）大力投资货运基础设施，包括内河航道、货运走廊、货运铁路、中转设施和港口。把BUILD和INFRA交通基建赠款项目赠款从每年18亿提高至35亿；每年为陆军工程兵团增加25亿资金，推动内陆水道的船闸现代化；支持港口基础设施。6）水利基础设施建设。更换老化管道，把联邦对清洁饮用水和水基础设施的投资增加一倍，监测供水系统中铅和其他污染物，追究污染企业的责任。投资水技术研发，号召私人部门创新。7）新基建项目：智能城市建设。每年用10亿美元帮助5个城市试行新的规划战略和智慧城市技术。投资宽带网络。投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施， 600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入，增加宽带提供商的参与数量等。8）建立转型项目基金。设立一个400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金，为庞大复杂的基建项目提供援助。第二，使美国汽车业在本世纪领先全球，加快向低碳和无碳汽车过渡。1）需求方面：恢复电动汽车全额税收抵免，利用联邦采购增加清洁汽车的需求，加速300万辆政府系统汽车的升级换代。设定到2030年所有美国制造的新巴士都实现零排放的目标，将全国50万辆校车转化为零排放汽车。2）鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂。3）五年内在电池和储能技术方面投资50亿美元，同时确保电池生产在国内进行。4）建立一个由50万个公共充电网点组成的全国充电系统，每年额外提供10亿美元资金以确保充电站由经过认证的技术人员安装。5）召集美国能源和交通部协调特别示范项目，向愿意试行新型充电基础设施的市镇和县提供赠款。6）制定燃油经济性标准，减少空气污染。第三，清洁电力投资：2035年实现无碳发电。1）发展清洁电力，到2035年实现无碳发电。2）大力发展电网，推动市场改革，扩大区域电力市场。3）为公用事业和电网运营商建立能源效率和清洁电力标准（ EECES ）；4）升级输电线路以支持更大的区域电力市场，推进大规模储能示范项目。5）将加倍提高对捕获碳、永久封存和利用捕获碳的技术的研究投资和税收优惠。第四，建筑改造，提高建筑能效。1）推动学校现代化。投资1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑，升级全国各地的儿童保育和早期学习设施。2）建筑节能改造。在4年内升级400万栋商业建筑，对200万户家庭进行房屋节能改造。推动建筑行业电气化，加大对低收入房屋节能改造项目和电热泵等关键技术的投资；建造净零碳联邦建筑等。3）2035年美国建筑存量碳足迹减少一半。4）推动建设150万套公共住房，向低收入社区注入更多资金以促进经济适用房的建设和小企业的发展。第五，对清洁能源创新进行历史性投资。1）在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购，其中一个重点是购买电池和电动汽车等关键的清洁能源投入。2）未来4年内专注于清洁能源、清洁交通、清洁工业流程和清洁材料等战略研究领域。3）加强和建设美国关键的清洁能源供应链，解决对稀土矿物的依赖等问题，加快供应链弹性方面的创新。4）大力投资国家实验室、高性能计算能力设施以及其他关键基础设施。第六，投资于可持续农业和环境养护。1）通过民间气候组织号召和动员新一代美国人投入到保护环境和应对气候变化的工作中。2）进行前期投资，以清理以往资源开采对环境造成的破坏和影响。3）维护美国的农场和牧场。为农民向新设备和新方法过渡提供低成本资金，资助精密农业和新作物的研究开发，建立自愿碳农业市场；追求亲工人和亲家庭的农民贸易政策；加强粮食供应的安全性和恢复能力；确保中小型农场的竞争公平等。第七，社区平等和发展。1）每年提供50亿美元，扩大新市场税收抵免并使该计划永久化；2）为社区发展金融机构基金提供双倍资金，支持低收入地区的金融机构。3）设立100亿美元的城市振兴基金，在陷入困境的城市开展创造性的振兴项目。4）资助贫困地区的锚定机构（指医院、学院和大学以及政府行政机构等）。5）全面实施「10-20-30计划（在所有联邦项目中，将10%的资金分配给过去30年有20%或以上的人口生活在贫困线以下的县）」。第八，振兴全国的制造业和中小企业。1）振兴制造业。将制造业扩展伙伴项目的资金提高四倍，为小型制造商在全球竞争中提供技术支持；在每个州发展低碳制造业；利用税收抵免和补贴帮助企业升级设备和流程、投资扩建或新建工厂、部署低碳技术；为更具竞争力或低碳的制造业提供资金等。2）推动中小企业发展。把国家小企业信贷倡议计划延长到2025年，联邦拨款增加至30亿美元；向各州提供50亿美元资金，制定鼓励小企业创业的政策，比如支持从公立大学向私营部门转让技术。（四）拜登基建对美国经济的影响？基建类支出对经济的影响如何评估？可以借鉴过往美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果：1）2014年马里兰大学的一项研究表明，公共交通基础设施投资每花费1美元，就会使得GDP增长增加约3美元，在经济衰退期间产生的影响更大。2）根据2014年芝加哥大学的报告，一项830亿美元的基础设施投资计划——大约相当于国内生产总值的0.6%——将在头三年创造170万个就业机会。3）根据全球咨询公司麦肯锡的估计，美国基础设施支出每增加1个百分点的GDP，将为经济增加150万个就业机会。4）经济政策研究所估计，础设施投资的回报率很高。对数十项基础设施研究进行回顾，每支出100美元……从长期来看，将使私营部门的产出分别提高13美元（中位数）和17美元（平均值）。5）据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）对奥巴马ARRA法案的评估，基建类的产出乘数在0.4-2.2之间。可借鉴美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果，从整体上大概估算拜登基建计划对美国经济和就业的影响。1）对GDP的影响：拜登基建计划中，确定的基建类支出大约是1.3万亿美元，投资周期10年，平均每年的支出约为1300亿，约占2019年GDP比重的0.6%，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（结合马里兰大学和CBO估计的产出乘数），未来十年，每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：根据芝加哥大学的就业影响估计，1.3万亿的基建类支出未来十年将每年创造逾200万个工作岗位。根据麦肯锡的评估结果估计，未来十年将带动约1000万的就业。拜登团队在计划简介中的就业影响估计是带动超1000万个就业。综合来看，拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美国银行在一份报告中估计，拜登的2万亿美元的基础设施计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」，并且美国GDP增长每增加1％，将带来标准普尔500公司收益的3％到4％左右的增长[4]。二、拜登加税：怎么加？同样的，我们从四个问题来理解拜登加税。第一，拜登是不是确定要加税，加税的目的是什么？第二，加税在美国历史上有先例吗？第三，拜登打算怎么加税？第四，加税对美国经济有何影响？（一）拜登确定要加税？目的何在？拜登是否要加税？加税应该是肯定的。第一，拜登在竞选时曾明确提出加税计划，这是其竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。第二，在拜登的竞选网站上写到，基础设施领域多达1.3万亿美元的投资，将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集资金。第三，财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（指拜登的重建计划法案）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。拜登加税的三个目的：一是为重建计划筹集资金，二是兑现竞选承诺，三是通过税制调整以促进税收公平，通过二次分配来调节贫富差距。从税制调整中可以很明显地看出，富人和高收入阶层、企业的税负压力增大，而中低收入者的税收抵免则明显扩大。（二）加税有先例可寻吗？在1950年以前，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率均呈逐渐上升趋势，这一时期，加税的主要原因是为战争筹资，在一战和二战期间，个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率大幅上升。从1950年代以来，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率整体呈逐渐下降趋势，减税时期多，加税时期极少。1950年以来，主要的减税有五次： 1963年肯尼迪减税、1979年卡特减税、1980年代里根减税、2001年小布什减税、2017年特朗普减税。而1950年以来的加税，最明显的有三次。第一次是1960年代后期，加税的主要原因还是战争因素，从1968年-1970年，为了应对越南战争的开支，美国征收了「越战附加税」，1970年以后取消。第二次是1990年老布什为了应对国防和医疗等社会公共开支大幅上升带来赤字增加，在1990年通过《1990年监察预算调解法案》，将个人所得税最高边际税率从28%提高至31%。第三次是1993年克林顿加税，这一次也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税。为了削减财政赤字，克林顿在1993年提出增税计划，将个人所得税最高边际税率从31%提高至39.6%，将企业所得税最高边际税率从34%提高至35%。值得注意的是，2012年个人所得税最高边际税率从35%上升至39.6%并非是加税导致，而是小布什减税期限已满，税率自动回到减税前的水平。（三）拜登打算如何加税？拜登加税主要是在两个方面，一是高收入群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，二是重新上调企业所得税率，对一些企业税进行调整。从下述条款的具体细则中可以看出，拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。1、个体税制调整：富人税负增加，中下阶层减负1）对年收入超过40万美元的人征收12.4%的社会保障工资税（Social Security payroll tax），由雇主和雇员平分。在先行的税法下，年收入高于13.77万的个人不需要支付社会保障工资税。2）将应税收入超过40万美元的最高个人所得税税率从现行法律规定的37%上调至39.6%；对于年收入超过40万美元的群体，即便有分项扣除的税收优惠，其个人所得税率也不得低于28%；恢复对应税收入超过40万美元的项目扣除额的「皮斯限制」；对应税收入超过40万美元的群体，逐步取消符合资格的业务收入扣除额。3）按39.6%的普通所得税税率对100万美元以上的长期资本利得和合格股息收入征税，消除资本利得税的累进性。4）税收抵免：扩大65岁以上无子女员工的劳动所得税抵免，为个人提供可再生能源相关的税收抵免；将儿童和受扶养人税收抵免(CDCTC)从最高3000美元扩大到8000美元(多个受扶养人为16000美元)，并将最高偿还率从35%提高到50%。在2021年，将17岁及以下儿童的儿童税收抵免(CTC)从最高2000美元提高到3000美元，同时为6岁以下儿童提供600美元的额外抵免，CTC将全额退还。值得一提的是，关于CTC的措施已在1.9万亿救济计划中实施；重建首次购房者的税收抵免政策，为首次购房者提供1.5万美元的税收抵免。5）将遗产税和赠与税的税率和免税额恢复到2009年的水平。2017年特朗普税改后，将2018-2025年的遗产和赠与税的免税额从每人500万提高至1000万，税率仍然定在40%。如果回到2009年水平，免税额将从现在的1000万降至350万，税率则从40%提高至45%。6）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：通过提供可退还的税收抵免来取代传统的扣除项目，以平衡传统退休账户(如401(k)和个人退休账户)的税收优惠；取消房地产税的某些规定；扩大《平价医疗法案》的保费税收抵免；创建可退还的租户税收抵免并提供每年不超过50亿美元的抵免额度，旨在将租金和水电费保持在租户月收入的30%以下；加大对低收入者住房税收抵免的额度。2、企业税制调整：税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流1）将企业所得税税率从21%提高到28%。2）对账面利润超过1亿美元的公司征收最低税。最低税是一种替代税——企业将支付常规企业所得税或15%最低税中的更高者，仍然允许净经营亏损(NOL)和外国税收抵免。3）将美国公司海外子公司的全球无形资产低税收收入(Global Intangible Low Tax Income)税率从10.5%提高一倍至21%。提议对海外子公司的GILTI进行分国家评估，取消将低于合格企业资产投资(QBAI) 10%的GILTI视为回报豁免的条款。在2017年税改前，美国一般对其公司和居民的全球收入征税，美国公司可以申请推迟对海外子公司的活跃业务收益征税，直到收益作为股息汇回美国。在税改之后，美国豁免了美国公司海外子公司活跃业务的收益，即使这些收益被汇回国内也不会被征税(但仍对外国子公司的被动投资收入征税)。美国国会担心将跨国公司的海外收入完全豁免，可能会加剧其将利润转移到海外低税收司法管辖区的做法，因此对全球无形资产低税收收入制定了10.5%的最低税率，以阻止利润转移。GILTI是指无形资产(如专利、商标和版权)带来的收入。无形资产具有高度的可移动性，该税率试图阻止美国公司将无形资产转移到海外。4）税收抵免：建立制造业税收抵免；扩大新市场的税收抵免并使之永久化；为采用工作场所退休储蓄计划的小企业提供税收抵免；扩大与可再生能源相关的税收抵免，包括碳捕获、使用和储存的税收抵免以及住宅能效的税收抵免，并恢复能源投资税收抵免(ITC)和电动汽车税收抵免，结束对化石燃料的税收补贴。5）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：对那些「为了向美国市场销售产品或提供服务而将制造业和服务业工作岗位转移到国外」的企业征收10%的附加税。为恢复生产、振兴已关闭或即将关闭的设施、重组设施以促进制造业就业或扩大制造业工资规模的活动，提供优先的10%的「美国制造」税收抵免。（四）拜登加税对美国经济的影响加税对经济的影响较为复杂，主要借鉴海外智库的评估来大致了解拜登加税对美国经济的影响。就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%）。此外，税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。1、税务基金会（Tax Foundation）的估计1）财政收入的影响：拜登税收计划将在未来10年筹集约2.8万亿美元。2）经济的影响：在未来十年，使GDP总共减少1.62%，GNP总共下降1.83%，使资本存量减少3.75%，使长期平均工资水平下降1.15%，损失54.2万个工作岗位。3）收入分配的影响：拜登的税收计划到2030年将导致最富有的1%纳税人的税后收入减少7.7%左右，所有纳税人的税后收入平均下降1.9%。2、税收政策中心（TaxPolicy Center）1）经济影响：使未来十年美国GDP总共下降3.4%，对GDP的影响将在2040年转正，在2040年以后的年份，正向影响将逐渐增大。2）收入影响：将使2021年至2030年的美国联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%），2031年至2040年减少900亿美元。到2040年，税收计划对联邦收入的影响将转正，其正效应在2040年的随后年份将逐渐增加。三、关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？目前，拜登团队还没有公布正式的计划方案和投资细则，后续要追踪拜登的重建计划，有两个关键的时间节点值得关注：第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日首次提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「下个月，在我第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’[5]。」正常情况下，拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，「目前还没有确定时间…我们当然仍有兴趣承诺进行一次联合会议。我们会与他们保持联系，但我不知道具体的时间。」历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议[6]，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，因此我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。拜登的重建计划的推出实施，需要经过美国国会的同意。目前民主党掌控众议院，可以在众议院轻松通过法案。但是民主党在参议院只是略占优势，仅比共和党多1票的投票权，无法绕过参议院的「阻挠议事」（需要60票）。拜登的重建计划要想在参议院获得通过，只有两个办法。一是在保证所有民主党参议员同意的前提下，至少再争取10位共和党参议员的支持。二是再次启用预算和解程序，和1.9万亿美国救济计划走的国会流程一致，只需要51票即可通过参议院。就目前共和党参议院高层的表态来看，第一种办法的可行性非常低，参议院共和党领导麦康奈尔本周一表示：「我们听说，未来几个月可能会提出所谓的基础设施法案，实际上可能是暗藏大幅加税和其他有损就业的左翼政策的特洛伊木马。」拜登的重建计划要想落地，最大的可能是启动预算和解程序。美国财政年度是每年10月至次年9月，预算和解程序一个财年一般只能使用一次（本来收入、支出和赤字三个领域每财年各有一次启动预算和解程序的机会，但是法案一般不只涉及一个领域，基本上三个领域都会覆盖，历史经验看，预算和解程序也是一个财年最多一次），今年1.9万亿美国救济计划已经使用过2021财年的「额度」，若要再次启用预算和解程序，只能等到2022财年开始。10月份是第二个关键的时间点，第一，到10月份，民主党可以再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，从民主党议员的表态来看，他们希望能快速通过重建计划法案，比如众议院议长佩洛西希望国会快速采取行动制定变革性的基建计划。四附录：拜登重建计划细则内容","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351508776,"gmtCreate":1616600816595,"gmtModify":1704796337312,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548456177993691","idStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351508776","repostId":"1100080179","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100080179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616593664,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100080179?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 21:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Judgment Day 2021? Why not be bullish on the stock market and commodity supercycle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100080179","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"美国复工对商品，或部分周期股，比如化工实际是利空。","content":"<p>Author: Yuwei Yuan</p><p>Last year, the three bulls of stocks, bonds and commodities driven by the release of water by global central banks led most investors at home and abroad to be overly optimistic about 2021.</p><p>However, in terms of macro fundamentals, there is actually no fundamental support for the stock market in 2020 (I am not against individual industries). Last year's bull market was actually the background of the financial crisis and economic crisis induced by the epidemic. The central bank put options-in order to cut off the risk transmission chain in the economic crisis, the central bank rescued the market and suppressed the downward fluctuation of assets. Then, the volatility of an economy with frail domestic demand that was artificially suppressed last year — like Linghu Chong's internal illness suppressed by external forces by a group of quacks — would theoretically spread backward unless the economy would flourish quickly (which is highly unrealistic).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873e66b2fb1140bf4542722170c1b634\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d600bd87df2e4cf7aae3b231feea75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why Bearish Emerging Markets, Especially Turkey, Latin American Stocks and Exchange Double Kill</b></p><p>U.S. bond yields are the anchor of global asset pricing.</p><p>No matter how much you deny the role of external forces, America's global financial influence is currently unmatched. In addition, the generalized value investment after 2016, the rise of Mao Index, is actually a process of institutionalization, long-term, passivity and fundamentally driven investment style after A shares are opened to foreign investment.</p><p><b>Personally, I think that when the internal assets are flourishing, full of bubbles, and overvalued (Wind All A-ex Bank Petrochemical PE reaches 41 times), the external factors must influence more than the internal factors</b>Assess risks in all aspects from a global macro perspective. Any outside wind and grass can be the straw that overwhelms the camel.</p><p>The flood of US dollars and the 0/negative interest rate in developed countries promoted the global asset bubble last year. Then, when the interest rate of US bonds rose, it was actually the assessment that the \"asset managers\" of each country had to face a certain hurdle rate to collect performance fees-only when the tide subsided did we know who didn't swim. Previously, we chose Turkey, which has always had a tradition of debt crisis in history, and Latin America as the short selling target. Before the recent plunge, they all faced the danger of the deterioration of the epidemic or domestic hyperinflation. As an oil-producing country, Brazil even withdrew, fearing that oil prices would worsen inflation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">Petrobras</a>CEO, the inflation risk can be seen.</p><p>India and Russia also meet these two criteria, but because:</p><p>The caste system of the former simply ignores the life and death of the \"people\" at the bottom, and has no moral and economic baggage. For them, the epidemic is like an internal survival of the fittest, so it is difficult to observe fluctuations from assets;</p><p>While the latter, benefiting from rising oil and preparing for rainy days in previous years, has high gold reserves</p><p>— — So these two short-selling logics are flawed.</p><p>To hedge EM risk, we chose long East Asia/short Turkey and Latin America. Like Druckenmiller's view, we are relatively bullish on East Asia in EM from last year-thanks to pandemic control, especially in technology, new energy is at the advantage. But what he said about buying East Asia/empty America, I think it is still too radical.</p><p>We said in 18 that the United States has always been short and long on the dollar, cutting EM leeks. At the end of last year, when the whole world was bearish on the dollar, when the dollar did not fall, it was time for the crowded bears to reflect. That's one of the reasons why we're not so bearish on the dollar and bearish on the EM this year. It is dangerous to be blindly bearish on the US dollar for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/579cf18d938f1606e8bbe2e91f397a98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why not be bullish on the commodity supercycle</b></p><p>Commodity Super Cycle? This logic is ridiculous.</p><p>Historical commodity supercycles have all been accompanied by the prosperity of human economies. Recently, due to China's entry into WTO and global integration, it became the world's factory, superimposing China's real estate economy-driven consumption upgrade and wealth effect.</p><p>While<b>There are many sophisticated conditions or contingencies in China's push for the last 2000-2007 super commodity cycle</b>：</p><p><ol><li>Culture: Work hard without complaint, work hard to get rich, show off wealth, the bottom class has strong ability to endure the gap between the rich and the poor</p><p></li><li>capital construction</p><p></li><li>Efficient government</p><p></li><li>Reflexivity of China's Economy: Real Estate/Inflation/Work Efficiency/Wealth Effect/Consumption</p><p></li><li>Last time, there was the backdrop of the US housing bubble and the simultaneous rise of the BRICS countries</p><p></li></ol>We won't see any region or country that can replicate the Chinese model for at least the next 10-20 years:</p><p>Indians and Africans accept fate, have no desires, no desires, or lazy nature,</p><p>Europe and the United States are also plagued by long-term low growth, deflation and the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and low desire;</p><p>It is simply impossible to replicate the China of 2000-2007.</p><p>Moreover,<b>After 2008, global central banks released water to keep the economy relatively stable, which was actually largely due to commodity deflation. In the absence of emerging countries to replace China, if commodities enter a supercycle, I think it is only possible in the context of global hyperinflation-then war is not far away</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafed14735b6f7bca7e02e39e60ef0ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd9e2823d5e4c1c0ac267dcd41fc486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, this round of commodities rose, mainly due to the rise of oil and copper, but</p><p><ul><li>Oil price increases because of the supply side;</p><p></li><li>Copper, we see that there are suspicions of cross-market price manipulation from virtual to physical to gamma squeeze, US stocks, A shares, copper futures... similar to GME.</p><p></li></ul>The inherent logic of these two varieties cannot complete the leading commodity bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451727453c577f905b52af9a4a4b56b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816b17c9ab75a6ef70e02a258d1697d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why not be optimistic about chemical leaders</b></p><p>Last year, there were many accidental factors driving the domestic commodity bull market:</p><p>The rise of commodities in 2020 is mainly based on the global central bank's release of water x China's resumption of work/Su x orders flowing to China x European home office caused by house purchase and decoration, home appliance demand x strong expectation of resumption of work after vaccine-these factors are highly contingent, short-term and cannot be replicated for a long time; A long-term rise requires substantial improvements in the economy and consumer demand, which we don't see so far.</p><p>Chemical leaders enjoyed low oil prices last year, and petrochemical production capacity in the United States was hit by the epidemic last year. Neither factor existed this year. In particular, the resumption of work in the United States is bad, not bullish, for the domestic chemical industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026025199f3a4dae623db7c47c45afc8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641302e4981a313c34bf19ac25ebc2ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why Hong Kong Stocks Are Risky</b></p><p>After the year, the Hong Kong stock market was actually driven by Hang Seng Technology Stocks, mainly due to the lazy thinking of going south to hold a group. Regaining the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks is wishful thinking of good value investors.</p><p>Then, Hong Kong stocks are actually exposed to four major risks at the same time:</p><p><ul><li>Antitrust</p><p></li><li>Mao Index Linkage</p><p></li><li>Inflation Expectations and US Treasury yields Rise</p><p></li><li>Dollar appreciation</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33d97c677841a52863d8a370d0a9486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, in 2021, regardless of US stocks, A shares and Hong Kong stocks, they are very similar to 2018. However, in view of the strong ability of current senior leaders to correct errors, and they have already warned in advance, and they need to maintain economic and financial stability; 2021, unlikely to fully replicate 2018.</p><p><b>Gamma Squeeze, Retail, SPAC, ARK, Internet Celebrity Fund</b></p><p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will \"come into the stock market,\" driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated that young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. — — From MarketWatch</p><p>As we analyzed last year, ARK's performance last year was largely driven by</p><p>① The prevalence of 0 interest rates and negative interest rates leads to the pursuit of growth stocks and small and medium-cap stocks by funds;</p><p>② The actual epidemic situation = nature's supply-side reform has destroyed the old economy subject to the lockdown of the city-it is a pie in the sky for the technology Internet;</p><p>③ Tesla is highly exposed, but most of Tesla's performance actually comes from the short-squeezing effect, which has a high positive correlation with short-squeezing-Tesla stock has certain financial asset attributes. To some extent, it is very similar to Bitcoin, and it is the result of capital grouping.</p><p>④ Small and medium-cap exposure and low-quality exposure: ARK holds a large number of small and medium-cap stocks and stocks with weak balance sheets. In fact, this is due to the fact that low interest rates catalyze the risk appetite of market participants, which highly overlaps with the preferences of retail investors.</p><p>⑤ AUM expansion + retail tracking → reflexive effect: ARK's outstanding performance this year has led to the continuous acceleration of capital inflow, forming a positive feedback effect-the latter-incoming funds push positions into positive feedback. In addition, due to the transparent announcement of ARK's fund positions, many retail investors have been attracted to follow suit and positive feedback has been strengthened.</p><p>At the beginning of the year, the A-share online celebrity funds actually had the characteristics of ARK. In fact, most of them were passive investments of passive risk premia style factors. They benefited from the big beta released by the central bank, and the alpha content was not high. Moreover, retail investors' chasing online celebrity fund is actually equivalent to retail investors' long gamma on GME options, which has a lot of leverage effect in the short term. In fact, they are not value investments, but against time and intrinsic value, trying to grab huge profits from the future and cash out in the short term.</p><p>ARK is now constantly selling large-cap stocks and buying small-cap stocks for a last ditch. But what we observe is:</p><p><ul><li>ARK's trading volume declined significantly,</p><p></li><li>The call option market has shrunk significantly = retail assets go to gamma, deleverage, and shrink. After Biden issued the subsidy, we did not observe the market-expected entry of the retail army.</p><p></li><li>This week, the yield of U.S. bonds fell, and the first-tier technology stocks rebounded sharply, but the target of gamma squeeze plummeted (ironically, the first-tier leader of A shares-Mao Index is resonating with the United States-junk stocks and second-tier technology stocks)</p><p></li></ul>Last night, both Yellen and Powell talked about the existence of an asset bubble (US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures).</p><p>A financial \"Maling Road\" encirclement and suppression may have the right time, place and people. We are \"clear\" and watch carefully.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c594d0f35d546b7e772525962725ebdb\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb27b96b2dec4cfd8ba23c1c66febb19\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Western legend has it that God will reward good and punish evil on Judgment Day;</p><p>We don't expect 2021 to be a big bear market,</p><p>But 2021 is likely to be the year of a return to the mean at the macro level</p><p>-manifested at various levels:</p><p>Time,</p><p>Territory,</p><p>Supply Chain,</p><p>Valuation,</p><p>Style,</p><p>Humanity,</p><p>Desire,</p><p>Earth gravity...</p><p>\"When the tide subsides, you know who is swimming naked.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c514a790774c86cfa09ba0d39d7de12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Image: visualcapitalist.com</p>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Judgment Day 2021? Why not be bullish on the stock market and commodity supercycle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJudgment Day 2021? Why not be bullish on the stock market and commodity supercycle\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">泷韬全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-24 21:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Yuwei Yuan</p><p>Last year, the three bulls of stocks, bonds and commodities driven by the release of water by global central banks led most investors at home and abroad to be overly optimistic about 2021.</p><p>However, in terms of macro fundamentals, there is actually no fundamental support for the stock market in 2020 (I am not against individual industries). Last year's bull market was actually the background of the financial crisis and economic crisis induced by the epidemic. The central bank put options-in order to cut off the risk transmission chain in the economic crisis, the central bank rescued the market and suppressed the downward fluctuation of assets. Then, the volatility of an economy with frail domestic demand that was artificially suppressed last year — like Linghu Chong's internal illness suppressed by external forces by a group of quacks — would theoretically spread backward unless the economy would flourish quickly (which is highly unrealistic).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873e66b2fb1140bf4542722170c1b634\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d600bd87df2e4cf7aae3b231feea75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why Bearish Emerging Markets, Especially Turkey, Latin American Stocks and Exchange Double Kill</b></p><p>U.S. bond yields are the anchor of global asset pricing.</p><p>No matter how much you deny the role of external forces, America's global financial influence is currently unmatched. In addition, the generalized value investment after 2016, the rise of Mao Index, is actually a process of institutionalization, long-term, passivity and fundamentally driven investment style after A shares are opened to foreign investment.</p><p><b>Personally, I think that when the internal assets are flourishing, full of bubbles, and overvalued (Wind All A-ex Bank Petrochemical PE reaches 41 times), the external factors must influence more than the internal factors</b>Assess risks in all aspects from a global macro perspective. Any outside wind and grass can be the straw that overwhelms the camel.</p><p>The flood of US dollars and the 0/negative interest rate in developed countries promoted the global asset bubble last year. Then, when the interest rate of US bonds rose, it was actually the assessment that the \"asset managers\" of each country had to face a certain hurdle rate to collect performance fees-only when the tide subsided did we know who didn't swim. Previously, we chose Turkey, which has always had a tradition of debt crisis in history, and Latin America as the short selling target. Before the recent plunge, they all faced the danger of the deterioration of the epidemic or domestic hyperinflation. As an oil-producing country, Brazil even withdrew, fearing that oil prices would worsen inflation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">Petrobras</a>CEO, the inflation risk can be seen.</p><p>India and Russia also meet these two criteria, but because:</p><p>The caste system of the former simply ignores the life and death of the \"people\" at the bottom, and has no moral and economic baggage. For them, the epidemic is like an internal survival of the fittest, so it is difficult to observe fluctuations from assets;</p><p>While the latter, benefiting from rising oil and preparing for rainy days in previous years, has high gold reserves</p><p>— — So these two short-selling logics are flawed.</p><p>To hedge EM risk, we chose long East Asia/short Turkey and Latin America. Like Druckenmiller's view, we are relatively bullish on East Asia in EM from last year-thanks to pandemic control, especially in technology, new energy is at the advantage. But what he said about buying East Asia/empty America, I think it is still too radical.</p><p>We said in 18 that the United States has always been short and long on the dollar, cutting EM leeks. At the end of last year, when the whole world was bearish on the dollar, when the dollar did not fall, it was time for the crowded bears to reflect. That's one of the reasons why we're not so bearish on the dollar and bearish on the EM this year. It is dangerous to be blindly bearish on the US dollar for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/579cf18d938f1606e8bbe2e91f397a98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why not be bullish on the commodity supercycle</b></p><p>Commodity Super Cycle? This logic is ridiculous.</p><p>Historical commodity supercycles have all been accompanied by the prosperity of human economies. Recently, due to China's entry into WTO and global integration, it became the world's factory, superimposing China's real estate economy-driven consumption upgrade and wealth effect.</p><p>While<b>There are many sophisticated conditions or contingencies in China's push for the last 2000-2007 super commodity cycle</b>：</p><p><ol><li>Culture: Work hard without complaint, work hard to get rich, show off wealth, the bottom class has strong ability to endure the gap between the rich and the poor</p><p></li><li>capital construction</p><p></li><li>Efficient government</p><p></li><li>Reflexivity of China's Economy: Real Estate/Inflation/Work Efficiency/Wealth Effect/Consumption</p><p></li><li>Last time, there was the backdrop of the US housing bubble and the simultaneous rise of the BRICS countries</p><p></li></ol>We won't see any region or country that can replicate the Chinese model for at least the next 10-20 years:</p><p>Indians and Africans accept fate, have no desires, no desires, or lazy nature,</p><p>Europe and the United States are also plagued by long-term low growth, deflation and the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and low desire;</p><p>It is simply impossible to replicate the China of 2000-2007.</p><p>Moreover,<b>After 2008, global central banks released water to keep the economy relatively stable, which was actually largely due to commodity deflation. In the absence of emerging countries to replace China, if commodities enter a supercycle, I think it is only possible in the context of global hyperinflation-then war is not far away</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafed14735b6f7bca7e02e39e60ef0ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd9e2823d5e4c1c0ac267dcd41fc486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, this round of commodities rose, mainly due to the rise of oil and copper, but</p><p><ul><li>Oil price increases because of the supply side;</p><p></li><li>Copper, we see that there are suspicions of cross-market price manipulation from virtual to physical to gamma squeeze, US stocks, A shares, copper futures... similar to GME.</p><p></li></ul>The inherent logic of these two varieties cannot complete the leading commodity bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451727453c577f905b52af9a4a4b56b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816b17c9ab75a6ef70e02a258d1697d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why not be optimistic about chemical leaders</b></p><p>Last year, there were many accidental factors driving the domestic commodity bull market:</p><p>The rise of commodities in 2020 is mainly based on the global central bank's release of water x China's resumption of work/Su x orders flowing to China x European home office caused by house purchase and decoration, home appliance demand x strong expectation of resumption of work after vaccine-these factors are highly contingent, short-term and cannot be replicated for a long time; A long-term rise requires substantial improvements in the economy and consumer demand, which we don't see so far.</p><p>Chemical leaders enjoyed low oil prices last year, and petrochemical production capacity in the United States was hit by the epidemic last year. Neither factor existed this year. In particular, the resumption of work in the United States is bad, not bullish, for the domestic chemical industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026025199f3a4dae623db7c47c45afc8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641302e4981a313c34bf19ac25ebc2ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Why Hong Kong Stocks Are Risky</b></p><p>After the year, the Hong Kong stock market was actually driven by Hang Seng Technology Stocks, mainly due to the lazy thinking of going south to hold a group. Regaining the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks is wishful thinking of good value investors.</p><p>Then, Hong Kong stocks are actually exposed to four major risks at the same time:</p><p><ul><li>Antitrust</p><p></li><li>Mao Index Linkage</p><p></li><li>Inflation Expectations and US Treasury yields Rise</p><p></li><li>Dollar appreciation</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33d97c677841a52863d8a370d0a9486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To sum up, in 2021, regardless of US stocks, A shares and Hong Kong stocks, they are very similar to 2018. However, in view of the strong ability of current senior leaders to correct errors, and they have already warned in advance, and they need to maintain economic and financial stability; 2021, unlikely to fully replicate 2018.</p><p><b>Gamma Squeeze, Retail, SPAC, ARK, Internet Celebrity Fund</b></p><p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will \"come into the stock market,\" driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated that young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. — — From MarketWatch</p><p>As we analyzed last year, ARK's performance last year was largely driven by</p><p>① The prevalence of 0 interest rates and negative interest rates leads to the pursuit of growth stocks and small and medium-cap stocks by funds;</p><p>② The actual epidemic situation = nature's supply-side reform has destroyed the old economy subject to the lockdown of the city-it is a pie in the sky for the technology Internet;</p><p>③ Tesla is highly exposed, but most of Tesla's performance actually comes from the short-squeezing effect, which has a high positive correlation with short-squeezing-Tesla stock has certain financial asset attributes. To some extent, it is very similar to Bitcoin, and it is the result of capital grouping.</p><p>④ Small and medium-cap exposure and low-quality exposure: ARK holds a large number of small and medium-cap stocks and stocks with weak balance sheets. In fact, this is due to the fact that low interest rates catalyze the risk appetite of market participants, which highly overlaps with the preferences of retail investors.</p><p>⑤ AUM expansion + retail tracking → reflexive effect: ARK's outstanding performance this year has led to the continuous acceleration of capital inflow, forming a positive feedback effect-the latter-incoming funds push positions into positive feedback. In addition, due to the transparent announcement of ARK's fund positions, many retail investors have been attracted to follow suit and positive feedback has been strengthened.</p><p>At the beginning of the year, the A-share online celebrity funds actually had the characteristics of ARK. In fact, most of them were passive investments of passive risk premia style factors. They benefited from the big beta released by the central bank, and the alpha content was not high. Moreover, retail investors' chasing online celebrity fund is actually equivalent to retail investors' long gamma on GME options, which has a lot of leverage effect in the short term. In fact, they are not value investments, but against time and intrinsic value, trying to grab huge profits from the future and cash out in the short term.</p><p>ARK is now constantly selling large-cap stocks and buying small-cap stocks for a last ditch. But what we observe is:</p><p><ul><li>ARK's trading volume declined significantly,</p><p></li><li>The call option market has shrunk significantly = retail assets go to gamma, deleverage, and shrink. After Biden issued the subsidy, we did not observe the market-expected entry of the retail army.</p><p></li><li>This week, the yield of U.S. bonds fell, and the first-tier technology stocks rebounded sharply, but the target of gamma squeeze plummeted (ironically, the first-tier leader of A shares-Mao Index is resonating with the United States-junk stocks and second-tier technology stocks)</p><p></li></ul>Last night, both Yellen and Powell talked about the existence of an asset bubble (US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures).</p><p>A financial \"Maling Road\" encirclement and suppression may have the right time, place and people. We are \"clear\" and watch carefully.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c594d0f35d546b7e772525962725ebdb\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb27b96b2dec4cfd8ba23c1c66febb19\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Western legend has it that God will reward good and punish evil on Judgment Day;</p><p>We don't expect 2021 to be a big bear market,</p><p>But 2021 is likely to be the year of a return to the mean at the macro level</p><p>-manifested at various levels:</p><p>Time,</p><p>Territory,</p><p>Supply Chain,</p><p>Valuation,</p><p>Style,</p><p>Humanity,</p><p>Desire,</p><p>Earth gravity...</p><p>\"When the tide subsides, you know who is swimming naked.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c514a790774c86cfa09ba0d39d7de12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Image: visualcapitalist.com</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg\">泷韬全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367fa068a00cbca94908e862748783f0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100080179","content_text":"作者：袁玉玮去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内疾 —— 理论上会向后延伸分布，除非经济会快速繁荣（这非常不现实）。为什么看空新兴市场，尤其土耳其，拉美股汇双杀美债收益率是全球资产定价的锚。无论你如何否认外力的作用，美国在全球的金融影响力目前无人匹敌。另外，2016年之后的广义价值投资，茅指数崛起，其实也是A股对外资开放后，投资风格机构化，长期化，被动化，基本面驱动的过程。我个人认为，在内部资产虚火旺盛，充斥泡沫，过度高估（万得全A-ex银行石化PE达到41倍）的时候，外部因素影响一定超过内部因素，从全球宏观的角度全方位评估风险。外部任何风吹草动都可能是压倒骆驼的稻草。美元泛滥，发达国家0/负利率，在去年推动了全球资产泡沫，那么当美债利率上涨的时候，其实就是每个国家的“资产管理人”要面临一定hurdle rate才能收业绩费的考核 —— 潮退了，我们才知道谁没游泳。我们之前选了历史上一贯有债务危机传统的土耳其，拉美作为做空标的，近期暴跌之前，他们都面临疫情恶化，或国内恶性通胀的危险。作为石油产出国，巴西甚至害怕石油涨价恶化通胀，撤了巴西石油公司的CEO，通胀风险可见一斑。符合这2个标准的还有印度，俄罗斯，但因为：前者的种姓制度根本忽略底层的“人”的生死，没有道德和经济包袱，疫情对他们来说就像一场内部优胜劣汰，所以从资产上很难观测波动；而后者由于受益于石油上涨，而且前几年未雨绸缪，黄金储备高—— 所以这2个做空逻辑都有瑕疵。为了对冲EM风险，我们选择了多东亚/空土耳其和拉美。和Druckenmiller的观点一样，我们从去年在EM相对看好东亚 —— 得益于疫情控制，尤其在科技，新能源处于优势。但他说的买东亚/空美国，我觉得还是过于激进。我们在18年就说过，美国一向在美元上短空长多，割EM韭菜。去年底，全世界都看空美元的时候，美元不跌，拥挤的空头们就该反省了。这也是为什么我们今年不那么看空美元，看空EM的原因之一。盲目长期看空美元，是危险的。为什么不看好商品超级周期商品超级周期？这个逻辑太荒谬。历史上的商品超级周期都伴随人类经济的繁荣。最近一次由于中国加入WTO和全球一体化，变成世界工厂，叠加中国的地产经济驱动的消费升级和财富效应。而中国推动上一轮2000-2007超级商品周期，有很多精密的条件或偶然性：文化：任劳任怨，勤劳致富，炫富，底层忍耐贫富差距能力强基建政府高效中国经济的反身性：地产/通胀/工作效率/财富效应/消费上次还有美国地产泡沫和金砖五国同时崛起的大背景我们至少在未来10-20年内看不到任何一个地区或国家可以复制中国模式：印度和非洲人认命，无欲无求，或懒惰的天性，欧美也都困扰于长期低成长，通缩和贫富差距扩大，低欲望；根本无法复制2000-2007的中国。而且，2008年之后，全球央行用放水来保持经济相对稳定，实际很大部分得益于商品的通缩。在没有新兴国家替代中国驱动的条件下，商品如果进入超级周期，我看只有全球恶性通胀背景下才有可能 —— 那么离战争也就不远了。另外，本轮商品上涨，主要由于石油和铜上涨，但石油涨价因为供给侧；铜，我们看到有类似GME的gamma squeeze，美股，A股，铜期货...的跨市从虚拟向实体操纵价格，做局的嫌疑。这2个品种的内在逻辑无法完成领导商品牛市。为什么不看好化工龙头去年，驱动国内商品牛市有很多偶然因素：2020商品上涨主要基于 —— 全球央行放水 x 中国复工/苏 x 订单流向中国 x 欧洲居家办公导致的买房和装修、家电需求 x 疫苗后复工强预期 —— 这些因素具备高度的偶然性，短期性，无法长期复制；长期上涨需要经济和消费需求实质性改善，我们目前没看到。化工龙头去年享受了低油价，和美国去年石化产能被疫情冲击。这两个因素在今年都不存在。尤其美国复工，对国内化工是利空，而不是利多。为什么港股有风险年后的港股行情实际还是恒生科技股驱动，主要是南下抱团的懒惰思维。重夺港股定价权，是善良的价值投资者的一厢情愿。那么，港股实际同时暴露在四大风险：反垄断茅指数联动通胀预期和美债利率上涨美元升值综上，2021年，无论美股，A股，港股，都和2018年非常相似。但鉴于现在的高层领导强大的纠错能力，而且早已提前预警，并且要经济维稳、金融维稳；2021，不太可能完全复制2018。Gamma Squeeze, 散户，SPAC，ARK, 网红基金Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. —— 摘自MarketWatch我们去年分析过，ARK去年业绩很大程度上，得益于①0利率和负利率盛行，导致资金对成长股和中小盘股的追捧；②疫情实际 = 大自然的供给侧改革，摧枯拉朽了受制于封城的旧经济 —— 对科技互联网是天上掉馅饼；③Tesla高度暴露，但Tesla表现实际大部分来源于逼空效果，和空头减仓有高度的正相关性 —— Tesla股票有一定的金融资产属性，某种程度上，它和Bitcoin很类似，都是资金抱团的结果。④中小盘暴露和低质量暴露：ARK持有大量中小盘股和资产负债表弱的股票。这其实得益于低利率催化了市场参与者的风险偏好，和散户羊群的偏好高度重叠。⑤AUM扩张+散户跟踪→反身效应：ARK由于今年的超群业绩，导致资金流入不断加速，形成了正反馈效果 —— 后入的资金推动持仓进入正反馈。另外，由于ARK的基金持仓透明公布，吸引了众多散户跟风，又加强了正反馈。年初，A股的网红基金其实也具备ARK的特征，实际大部分是类被动risk premia风格因子的被动投资，他们得益于央行放水的大beta，alpha含量并不高。而且散户的追涨网红基金，实际等同于散户在GME期权上long gamma，短期有大量的杠杆效应。他们实际不是价值投资，而是在和时间，和内在价值作对，想从未来攫取暴利，短期套现。ARK目前不断抛出大盘股，买入小盘股，作最后一搏。但是我们观测到:ARK的交易量明显下降，看涨期权市场已经显著萎缩 = 散户资产去gamma，去杠杆，缩水，Biden发完补助，我们并没观测到市场预期的散户大军的进场。本周，美债收益率下降，一线科技股大幅反弹，但gamma squeeze标的却出现暴跌现象（讽刺的是，A股的一线龙头 —— 茅指数在和美国抱团票 —— 垃圾股，二线科技股共振）昨晚，Yellen和Powell又双双谈到目前存在资产泡沫（US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures）。一场金融\"马陵道\"围剿的天时，地利，人和，也许都具备了。我们“慭慭然”，小心观测。西方传说上帝会在审判日那天赏善罚恶；我们并不预期2021一定是大熊市，但2021很可能是宏观层面均值回归的一年—— 表现在各个层面：时间，地域，供应链，估值，风格，人性，欲念，地球引力...“潮退了，你才知道谁在裸泳。”图片：visualcapitalist.com","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351266314,"gmtCreate":1616597903738,"gmtModify":1704796269871,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548456177993691","idStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MARK","listText":"MARK","text":"MARK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351266314","repostId":"351330272","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":351330272,"gmtCreate":1616561158196,"gmtModify":1704795677735,"author":{"id":"3478213283465426","authorId":"3478213283465426","name":"美股投资网","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bfd2cf1aa240d7058795c83d419510","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3478213283465426","idStr":"3478213283465426"},"themes":[],"title":"NFT是泡沫還是風口？附NFT概念股列表，一文帶你深入瞭解","htmlText":"【NFT】Non-Fungible Token 一種特殊的加密生成的代幣，它使用區塊鏈技術與無法複製的獨特數字資產進行鏈接。具有非.同.質.化.代.幣，具有不可分割、不可替代、獨一無二等特點。我們美股投資網早在上週三就發文推測NFT概念或讓TKAT涉足這個領域。當天收盤價22.6美元，今天最高漲到74美元，漲幅236%。回顧&nbsp;妖股 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TKAT\">$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$</a>&nbsp; 爲什麼暴漲277%在區塊鏈上，數字加.密.貨.幣分爲原生幣和代幣兩大類。前者如BTC、ETH等，擁有自己的主鏈，使用鏈上的交易來維護賬本數據；代幣則是依附於現有的區塊鏈，使用智能合約來進行賬本的記錄，如依附於以太坊上而發佈的token。代幣之中又可分爲同質化和非同質化兩種： 同質化代幣，即FT（Fungible Token），互相可以替代、可接近無限拆分的token。 而非.同.質.化.代.幣，即NFT，每一個 NFT 擁有獨特且唯一的標識，兩兩不可互換。如加密貓、token化的數字門票等。也就相當於帶有編號的人民幣，不會存在兩張編號一樣的人民幣。 因此，相較於FT，NFT的關鍵創新之處在於提供了一種標記原生數字資產所有權（即存在於數字世界，或發源於數字世界的資產）的方法，捕捉信息然後發現該信息與鏈上所有其它信息的關係和價值。同時，NFT由於其非同質化、不可拆分的特性，使得它可以錨定現實世界中商品的概念，簡單來理解，就是在發行在區塊鏈上的數字資產，這個資產可以是遊戲道具、數字藝術品、門票等，並且具有唯一性和不可複製性。NFT 形式下的，&nbsp;NBA Top Shot 推出的「數字版球星卡」。NTF的應用場景很多，遊戲、票務等等都是它的應用範圍，具體的應","listText":"【NFT】Non-Fungible Token 一種特殊的加密生成的代幣，它使用區塊鏈技術與無法複製的獨特數字資產進行鏈接。具有非.同.質.化.代.幣，具有不可分割、不可替代、獨一無二等特點。我們美股投資網早在上週三就發文推測NFT概念或讓TKAT涉足這個領域。當天收盤價22.6美元，今天最高漲到74美元，漲幅236%。回顧&nbsp;妖股 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TKAT\">$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$</a>&nbsp; 爲什麼暴漲277%在區塊鏈上，數字加.密.貨.幣分爲原生幣和代幣兩大類。前者如BTC、ETH等，擁有自己的主鏈，使用鏈上的交易來維護賬本數據；代幣則是依附於現有的區塊鏈，使用智能合約來進行賬本的記錄，如依附於以太坊上而發佈的token。代幣之中又可分爲同質化和非同質化兩種： 同質化代幣，即FT（Fungible Token），互相可以替代、可接近無限拆分的token。 而非.同.質.化.代.幣，即NFT，每一個 NFT 擁有獨特且唯一的標識，兩兩不可互換。如加密貓、token化的數字門票等。也就相當於帶有編號的人民幣，不會存在兩張編號一樣的人民幣。 因此，相較於FT，NFT的關鍵創新之處在於提供了一種標記原生數字資產所有權（即存在於數字世界，或發源於數字世界的資產）的方法，捕捉信息然後發現該信息與鏈上所有其它信息的關係和價值。同時，NFT由於其非同質化、不可拆分的特性，使得它可以錨定現實世界中商品的概念，簡單來理解，就是在發行在區塊鏈上的數字資產，這個資產可以是遊戲道具、數字藝術品、門票等，並且具有唯一性和不可複製性。NFT 形式下的，&nbsp;NBA Top Shot 推出的「數字版球星卡」。NTF的應用場景很多，遊戲、票務等等都是它的應用範圍，具體的應","text":"【NFT】Non-Fungible Token 一種特殊的加密生成的代幣，它使用區塊鏈技術與無法複製的獨特數字資產進行鏈接。具有非.同.質.化.代.幣，具有不可分割、不可替代、獨一無二等特點。我們美股投資網早在上週三就發文推測NFT概念或讓TKAT涉足這個領域。當天收盤價22.6美元，今天最高漲到74美元，漲幅236%。回顧 妖股 $Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$ 爲什麼暴漲277%在區塊鏈上，數字加.密.貨.幣分爲原生幣和代幣兩大類。前者如BTC、ETH等，擁有自己的主鏈，使用鏈上的交易來維護賬本數據；代幣則是依附於現有的區塊鏈，使用智能合約來進行賬本的記錄，如依附於以太坊上而發佈的token。代幣之中又可分爲同質化和非同質化兩種： 同質化代幣，即FT（Fungible Token），互相可以替代、可接近無限拆分的token。 而非.同.質.化.代.幣，即NFT，每一個 NFT 擁有獨特且唯一的標識，兩兩不可互換。如加密貓、token化的數字門票等。也就相當於帶有編號的人民幣，不會存在兩張編號一樣的人民幣。 因此，相較於FT，NFT的關鍵創新之處在於提供了一種標記原生數字資產所有權（即存在於數字世界，或發源於數字世界的資產）的方法，捕捉信息然後發現該信息與鏈上所有其它信息的關係和價值。同時，NFT由於其非同質化、不可拆分的特性，使得它可以錨定現實世界中商品的概念，簡單來理解，就是在發行在區塊鏈上的數字資產，這個資產可以是遊戲道具、數字藝術品、門票等，並且具有唯一性和不可複製性。NFT 形式下的， NBA Top Shot 推出的「數字版球星卡」。NTF的應用場景很多，遊戲、票務等等都是它的應用範圍，具體的應","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5556605ed49715d8972f8d4818a605e6","width":"1080","height":"608"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/171c78e1be17a5b48674fee6c4cbcba8","width":"1080","height":"506"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda23cb6af7d34f156456ff4d0a88f6d","width":"1080","height":"721"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351330272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":16,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353069879,"gmtCreate":1616432079891,"gmtModify":1704794112736,"author":{"id":"3548456177993691","authorId":"3548456177993691","name":"甲鱼蛋小财奴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc853984ad47d0d387346f8ca21bdd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548456177993691","idStr":"3548456177993691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"VLKAF - 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