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好Q牛

好Q牛

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2020-07-09

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2020-06-11

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2020-06-02

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2020-05-18

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2021-04-16

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@房东经济学:爲什麼再有錢也很難財務自由？

2021-04-14

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@美股小马:和女兒聊投資-第15集：兩邊都下注

2021-04-14

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@机构有话说: $大豆主連(ZSmain)$ $玉米主連(ZCmain)$ $小麥主連(ZWmain)$ $豆油主連(ZLmain)$ $育肥牛主連(GFmain)$ 20分鐘的視頻乾貨，爲你詳細解讀農產品期貨基礎知識：合約的標準化設定，保證金交易規則和農產品行情判斷邏輯，快來一起學習吧！

2021-01-28

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@孟浩:財報前，特斯拉還能上車嗎？

2020-12-24

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2020-12-08

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相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","listText":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","text":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 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“我最近把你今年的壓歲錢買成了谷歌的股票。” 我告訴她。 “呃…真的不能把壓歲錢拿一部分讓我用麼？“ “我們說好的，18歲後由你支配。” “哎，好吧“，女兒嘆了口氣，”大人都這麼說…” 一邊不滿的嘟囔道。 “你爲什麼會買谷歌？“ 她問道。 “嗯… 因爲通過一段時間的觀察，我覺得比起在Spotify上聽歌，你似乎更喜歡看Youtube上一些up主的自媒體頻道。“ （女兒之前因爲喜歡聽流行歌並發現朋友們都在用Spotify, 買入了人生第一支股票Spotify）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$</a> “問你個問題，如果只在Youtube和Spotify兩個App中選一個。讓你帶着去一個荒島生活十年。你會選哪個呢？“ 我說。 “呃…” 女兒猶豫了一下，說，“我會選Youtube.”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> “嗯… 視頻比純音樂還是有意思太多了。” 我說。“ “而且，我買谷歌還有另一個理由。”我接着說，”你知道嗎，全世界每年銷售15億部手機，15%裝蘋果系統，剩下85%裝安卓系統。我們之前已經買了蘋果，現在再買谷歌。我不知道十年後蘋果還是安卓系統誰會更成功。但是可以肯定，十年後人們比現在更加依賴智能手機。不出意外，那時的成功者總是蘋果或安卓其中的一個。它們倆的市場佔有率加起來也大概還是100%，市場卻更大了。“ “換句話說”，我說，“投資不需要‘二選一’。很多時候,你可以betting on both sides, 兩面都下注。“ 見女兒大概第一次聽說這個說法，有些發懵。我又說，“其實這個道理並不複雜。比如現在你在努力學中文。當今世界上，美國作爲唯一的超級大國，依舊是領","listText":"吃完晚飯，我和女兒坐在沙發上聊天。 “我最近把你今年的壓歲錢買成了谷歌的股票。” 我告訴她。 “呃…真的不能把壓歲錢拿一部分讓我用麼？“ “我們說好的，18歲後由你支配。” “哎，好吧“，女兒嘆了口氣，”大人都這麼說…” 一邊不滿的嘟囔道。 “你爲什麼會買谷歌？“ 她問道。 “嗯… 因爲通過一段時間的觀察，我覺得比起在Spotify上聽歌，你似乎更喜歡看Youtube上一些up主的自媒體頻道。“ （女兒之前因爲喜歡聽流行歌並發現朋友們都在用Spotify, 買入了人生第一支股票Spotify）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$</a> “問你個問題，如果只在Youtube和Spotify兩個App中選一個。讓你帶着去一個荒島生活十年。你會選哪個呢？“ 我說。 “呃…” 女兒猶豫了一下，說，“我會選Youtube.”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> “嗯… 視頻比純音樂還是有意思太多了。” 我說。“ “而且，我買谷歌還有另一個理由。”我接着說，”你知道嗎，全世界每年銷售15億部手機，15%裝蘋果系統，剩下85%裝安卓系統。我們之前已經買了蘋果，現在再買谷歌。我不知道十年後蘋果還是安卓系統誰會更成功。但是可以肯定，十年後人們比現在更加依賴智能手機。不出意外，那時的成功者總是蘋果或安卓其中的一個。它們倆的市場佔有率加起來也大概還是100%，市場卻更大了。“ “換句話說”，我說，“投資不需要‘二選一’。很多時候,你可以betting on both sides, 兩面都下注。“ 見女兒大概第一次聽說這個說法，有些發懵。我又說，“其實這個道理並不複雜。比如現在你在努力學中文。當今世界上，美國作爲唯一的超級大國，依舊是領","text":"吃完晚飯，我和女兒坐在沙發上聊天。 “我最近把你今年的壓歲錢買成了谷歌的股票。” 我告訴她。 “呃…真的不能把壓歲錢拿一部分讓我用麼？“ “我們說好的，18歲後由你支配。” “哎，好吧“，女兒嘆了口氣，”大人都這麼說…” 一邊不滿的嘟囔道。 “你爲什麼會買谷歌？“ 她問道。 “嗯… 因爲通過一段時間的觀察，我覺得比起在Spotify上聽歌，你似乎更喜歡看Youtube上一些up主的自媒體頻道。“ （女兒之前因爲喜歡聽流行歌並發現朋友們都在用Spotify, 買入了人生第一支股票Spotify）$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ “問你個問題，如果只在Youtube和Spotify兩個App中選一個。讓你帶着去一個荒島生活十年。你會選哪個呢？“ 我說。 “呃…” 女兒猶豫了一下，說，“我會選Youtube.”$谷歌(GOOG)$ “嗯… 視頻比純音樂還是有意思太多了。” 我說。“ “而且，我買谷歌還有另一個理由。”我接着說，”你知道嗎，全世界每年銷售15億部手機，15%裝蘋果系統，剩下85%裝安卓系統。我們之前已經買了蘋果，現在再買谷歌。我不知道十年後蘋果還是安卓系統誰會更成功。但是可以肯定，十年後人們比現在更加依賴智能手機。不出意外，那時的成功者總是蘋果或安卓其中的一個。它們倆的市場佔有率加起來也大概還是100%，市場卻更大了。“ “換句話說”，我說，“投資不需要‘二選一’。很多時候,你可以betting on both sides, 兩面都下注。“ 見女兒大概第一次聽說這個說法，有些發懵。我又說，“其實這個道理並不複雜。比如現在你在努力學中文。當今世界上，美國作爲唯一的超級大國，依舊是領","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342536458","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344168231,"gmtCreate":1618388617023,"gmtModify":1704710029059,"author":{"id":"3548709847942772","authorId":"3548709847942772","name":"好Q牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d6f9d132df4be0c76a45cdd3f13473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548709847942772","authorIdStr":"3548709847942772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344168231","repostId":"345846237","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":345846237,"gmtCreate":1618304103527,"gmtModify":1704708832189,"author":{"id":"126199392658083","authorId":"126199392658083","name":"机构有话说","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8a79f8da6559cae9d644c1c24d24737","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"126199392658083","authorIdStr":"126199392658083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZSmain\">$大豆主連(ZSmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZCmain\">$玉米主連(ZCmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZWmain\">$小麥主連(ZWmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZLmain\">$豆油主連(ZLmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GFmain\">$育肥牛主連(GFmain)$</a> 20分鐘的視頻乾貨，爲你詳細解讀農產品期貨基礎知識：合約的標準化設定，保證金交易規則和農產品行情判斷邏輯，快來一起學習吧！\n \n","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZSmain\">$大豆主連(ZSmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZCmain\">$玉米主連(ZCmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZWmain\">$小麥主連(ZWmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZLmain\">$豆油主連(ZLmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GFmain\">$育肥牛主連(GFmain)$</a> 20分鐘的視頻乾貨，爲你詳細解讀農產品期貨基礎知識：合約的標準化設定，保證金交易規則和農產品行情判斷邏輯，快來一起學習吧！","text":"$大豆主連(ZSmain)$ $玉米主連(ZCmain)$ $小麥主連(ZWmain)$ $豆油主連(ZLmain)$ $育肥牛主連(GFmain)$ 20分鐘的視頻乾貨，爲你詳細解讀農產品期貨基礎知識：合約的標準化設定，保證金交易規則和農產品行情判斷邏輯，快來一起學習吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345846237","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"64c4183f204a43f4a87596397e9b4c27","tweetId":"345846237","title":"20分钟入门农产品期货投资","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/b22ab7ba5285890816879236923/25b2de9ee20f003e488318e0.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc841186eb1b0606f6b63d96293bbe4","shareLink":"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20190705061946190/20190725081600407"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311265909,"gmtCreate":1611801099401,"gmtModify":1704863685125,"author":{"id":"3548709847942772","authorId":"3548709847942772","name":"好Q牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d6f9d132df4be0c76a45cdd3f13473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548709847942772","authorIdStr":"3548709847942772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311265909","repostId":"313339599","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":313339599,"gmtCreate":1611664501104,"gmtModify":1704861811442,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483039f7d05988e78e38a07bc2e5c3db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"58341441844653","authorIdStr":"58341441844653"},"themes":[],"title":"財報前，特斯拉還能上車嗎？","htmlText":"特斯拉將於北京時間1月27日盤後發佈第四季度財務報告，財報前，還能上車嗎？這篇文章想與大家探討一下特斯拉本次財報的看點。 先來簡單回顧一下Q3財報 特斯拉 3季報大超預期，公司再度確認了年交付50萬輛新車的目標。 3季度營收達到87.71億美元，環比上升45%，同比上升39%，高於市場預期的83.6億美元。 3季度淨利潤8.74億美元，環比上升94%，同比增加156%，連續5個季度實現盈利。 除了淨利潤不錯之外，特斯拉現金流的表現同樣令人印象深刻，特斯拉在第三季度創造了14億美元的自由現金流(FCF) ，遠高於第二季度的4.18億美元和3.71億美元。 按理說這麼好的財報，特斯拉應該會大漲，然而財報後特斯拉漲幅縮窄，主要是因爲特斯拉財報超預期是大概率事件，畢竟特斯拉的汽車銷售佔據了總營收的86.77%，而汽車銷售營收是由汽車交付量，以及ASP（單位車輛售價）決定的，結合之前公佈的創紀錄的Q3交付數據，3季度財報營收超預期並不意外。 唯一意外的是ASP上升了，2季度特斯拉平均售價是52271，3季度平均售價接近了55000，平均售價升高主要是受益於今年早些時候推出的Model Y。由於Model Y的整車價格要高於Model 3，也就是說Model Y 賣的錢越多，對於ASP的貢獻越大，特斯拉營收表現也會越好。除此之外3季度營收大增除了汽車銷售大增以外，還源於碳積分（regulatory credits）大增。 基於這種情況實現的營收大增，顯然並不能使市場滿意，這也就造成特斯拉財報後漲幅縮窄。 關於Q4財報的幾點看法 聊完了上季度的財報回顧，迴歸正題，今天來談談對於4季度財報的預期。根據彭博終端的數據，財報前分析師預計特斯拉4季度收入103.29億美元，調整後EPS爲1.011。從前段時間特斯拉公佈的季度交付來看，這季度特斯拉財報大概率不錯，由於特斯拉的收入來自於汽車銷","listText":"特斯拉將於北京時間1月27日盤後發佈第四季度財務報告，財報前，還能上車嗎？這篇文章想與大家探討一下特斯拉本次財報的看點。 先來簡單回顧一下Q3財報 特斯拉 3季報大超預期，公司再度確認了年交付50萬輛新車的目標。 3季度營收達到87.71億美元，環比上升45%，同比上升39%，高於市場預期的83.6億美元。 3季度淨利潤8.74億美元，環比上升94%，同比增加156%，連續5個季度實現盈利。 除了淨利潤不錯之外，特斯拉現金流的表現同樣令人印象深刻，特斯拉在第三季度創造了14億美元的自由現金流(FCF) ，遠高於第二季度的4.18億美元和3.71億美元。 按理說這麼好的財報，特斯拉應該會大漲，然而財報後特斯拉漲幅縮窄，主要是因爲特斯拉財報超預期是大概率事件，畢竟特斯拉的汽車銷售佔據了總營收的86.77%，而汽車銷售營收是由汽車交付量，以及ASP（單位車輛售價）決定的，結合之前公佈的創紀錄的Q3交付數據，3季度財報營收超預期並不意外。 唯一意外的是ASP上升了，2季度特斯拉平均售價是52271，3季度平均售價接近了55000，平均售價升高主要是受益於今年早些時候推出的Model Y。由於Model Y的整車價格要高於Model 3，也就是說Model Y 賣的錢越多，對於ASP的貢獻越大，特斯拉營收表現也會越好。除此之外3季度營收大增除了汽車銷售大增以外，還源於碳積分（regulatory credits）大增。 基於這種情況實現的營收大增，顯然並不能使市場滿意，這也就造成特斯拉財報後漲幅縮窄。 關於Q4財報的幾點看法 聊完了上季度的財報回顧，迴歸正題，今天來談談對於4季度財報的預期。根據彭博終端的數據，財報前分析師預計特斯拉4季度收入103.29億美元，調整後EPS爲1.011。從前段時間特斯拉公佈的季度交付來看，這季度特斯拉財報大概率不錯，由於特斯拉的收入來自於汽車銷","text":"特斯拉將於北京時間1月27日盤後發佈第四季度財務報告，財報前，還能上車嗎？這篇文章想與大家探討一下特斯拉本次財報的看點。 先來簡單回顧一下Q3財報 特斯拉 3季報大超預期，公司再度確認了年交付50萬輛新車的目標。 3季度營收達到87.71億美元，環比上升45%，同比上升39%，高於市場預期的83.6億美元。 3季度淨利潤8.74億美元，環比上升94%，同比增加156%，連續5個季度實現盈利。 除了淨利潤不錯之外，特斯拉現金流的表現同樣令人印象深刻，特斯拉在第三季度創造了14億美元的自由現金流(FCF) ，遠高於第二季度的4.18億美元和3.71億美元。 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相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","listText":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","text":"最近胡潤聯合百富衆鑫出了一個《2021胡潤財富自由門檻》，其中的財務自由標準分爲入門級、中級、高級和國際級四個階段，並細分到中國一二三線三類城市。具體的門檻在下表中列出： 相比過去那些財務自由的標準，我覺得這次的數據相對比較靠譜，但即使達到表中所述的經濟水平，絕大多數人還是不會感到財務自由。 詳細看看數據，比如一線城市入門級門檻1900萬資產+60萬家庭稅後收入，表中顯示的是一套120平米的自住房，按照改善型住房的標準，給這套房1000萬的估值，就意味着這個家庭在無負債的情況下擁有1000萬價值的自住房，1900萬減去1000萬的房子，就還有900萬其他可投的金融資產，如果投資指數基金，就按照滬深300過去平均年化10%的速度，拿出900萬的一半作爲本金，每年都可以得到45萬的資產增值，而且可以靈活地隨時變現，這樣的生活確實富足。 這個標準相對過去那些對財務自由的定義更靠譜，但還是沒啥意義，因爲絕大多數人的人性都不會讓財務自由有哪怕有一秒鐘的實際存在。 你說北上廣深家庭資產1900萬，稅後年入60萬的家庭會滿足於自己的財務狀況嗎？會感覺到自己進入了財務自由嗎？99%不會。 因爲他們還會想更多的事情，比如去買第二套、第三套房，比如創業，或者找幾個好股票去投資，以實現儘可能快地讓自己的身價從1900萬再翻一倍到4000萬水平。 胡潤畢竟是個老外，對中國的瞭解仍有不足，給出的數據確實有些外賓視角的感覺。一般來說，一線城市1900萬淨資產的家庭，名下房產大都不止一套，而且1900萬的淨資產可能是3000萬的資產加1100萬的負債組合而成的，這種結構當然不會非常舒服，而且一刻不能停下工作。 在中國一線城市，無論是工作上的競爭還是資產配置上的競爭都非常激烈，從過往的經驗來看，也許你只是某個時間點比別人少買了一套房，少借了200萬房貸，但幾年後兩個家庭之間的財富差距就被拉大到落後的一方再","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0d3d3f80705d8737c51ed49dd2865e","width":"607","height":"707"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4725c8ccaf5689b6294c4821e27d47c0","width":"1080","height":"814"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a72cb7469390912d32d9492ee4504dc","width":"1080","height":"1226"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347989344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344168459,"gmtCreate":1618388627271,"gmtModify":1704710029382,"author":{"id":"3548709847942772","authorId":"3548709847942772","name":"好Q牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d6f9d132df4be0c76a45cdd3f13473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548709847942772","idStr":"3548709847942772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344168459","repostId":"342536458","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":342536458,"gmtCreate":1618230424571,"gmtModify":1704707795670,"author":{"id":"3570527994703622","authorId":"3570527994703622","name":"美股小马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c472d62e863100841c7d25a014cf3b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570527994703622","idStr":"3570527994703622"},"themes":[],"title":"和女兒聊投資-第15集：兩邊都下注","htmlText":"吃完晚飯，我和女兒坐在沙發上聊天。 “我最近把你今年的壓歲錢買成了谷歌的股票。” 我告訴她。 “呃…真的不能把壓歲錢拿一部分讓我用麼？“ “我們說好的，18歲後由你支配。” “哎，好吧“，女兒嘆了口氣，”大人都這麼說…” 一邊不滿的嘟囔道。 “你爲什麼會買谷歌？“ 她問道。 “嗯… 因爲通過一段時間的觀察，我覺得比起在Spotify上聽歌，你似乎更喜歡看Youtube上一些up主的自媒體頻道。“ （女兒之前因爲喜歡聽流行歌並發現朋友們都在用Spotify, 買入了人生第一支股票Spotify）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$</a> “問你個問題，如果只在Youtube和Spotify兩個App中選一個。讓你帶着去一個荒島生活十年。你會選哪個呢？“ 我說。 “呃…” 女兒猶豫了一下，說，“我會選Youtube.”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> “嗯… 視頻比純音樂還是有意思太多了。” 我說。“ “而且，我買谷歌還有另一個理由。”我接着說，”你知道嗎，全世界每年銷售15億部手機，15%裝蘋果系統，剩下85%裝安卓系統。我們之前已經買了蘋果，現在再買谷歌。我不知道十年後蘋果還是安卓系統誰會更成功。但是可以肯定，十年後人們比現在更加依賴智能手機。不出意外，那時的成功者總是蘋果或安卓其中的一個。它們倆的市場佔有率加起來也大概還是100%，市場卻更大了。“ “換句話說”，我說，“投資不需要‘二選一’。很多時候,你可以betting on both sides, 兩面都下注。“ 見女兒大概第一次聽說這個說法，有些發懵。我又說，“其實這個道理並不複雜。比如現在你在努力學中文。當今世界上，美國作爲唯一的超級大國，依舊是領","listText":"吃完晚飯，我和女兒坐在沙發上聊天。 “我最近把你今年的壓歲錢買成了谷歌的股票。” 我告訴她。 “呃…真的不能把壓歲錢拿一部分讓我用麼？“ “我們說好的，18歲後由你支配。” “哎，好吧“，女兒嘆了口氣，”大人都這麼說…” 一邊不滿的嘟囔道。 “你爲什麼會買谷歌？“ 她問道。 “嗯… 因爲通過一段時間的觀察，我覺得比起在Spotify上聽歌，你似乎更喜歡看Youtube上一些up主的自媒體頻道。“ （女兒之前因爲喜歡聽流行歌並發現朋友們都在用Spotify, 買入了人生第一支股票Spotify）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$</a> “問你個問題，如果只在Youtube和Spotify兩個App中選一個。讓你帶着去一個荒島生活十年。你會選哪個呢？“ 我說。 “呃…” 女兒猶豫了一下，說，“我會選Youtube.”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> “嗯… 視頻比純音樂還是有意思太多了。” 我說。“ “而且，我買谷歌還有另一個理由。”我接着說，”你知道嗎，全世界每年銷售15億部手機，15%裝蘋果系統，剩下85%裝安卓系統。我們之前已經買了蘋果，現在再買谷歌。我不知道十年後蘋果還是安卓系統誰會更成功。但是可以肯定，十年後人們比現在更加依賴智能手機。不出意外，那時的成功者總是蘋果或安卓其中的一個。它們倆的市場佔有率加起來也大概還是100%，市場卻更大了。“ “換句話說”，我說，“投資不需要‘二選一’。很多時候,你可以betting on both sides, 兩面都下注。“ 見女兒大概第一次聽說這個說法，有些發懵。我又說，“其實這個道理並不複雜。比如現在你在努力學中文。當今世界上，美國作爲唯一的超級大國，依舊是領","text":"吃完晚飯，我和女兒坐在沙發上聊天。 “我最近把你今年的壓歲錢買成了谷歌的股票。” 我告訴她。 “呃…真的不能把壓歲錢拿一部分讓我用麼？“ “我們說好的，18歲後由你支配。” “哎，好吧“，女兒嘆了口氣，”大人都這麼說…” 一邊不滿的嘟囔道。 “你爲什麼會買谷歌？“ 她問道。 “嗯… 因爲通過一段時間的觀察，我覺得比起在Spotify上聽歌，你似乎更喜歡看Youtube上一些up主的自媒體頻道。“ （女兒之前因爲喜歡聽流行歌並發現朋友們都在用Spotify, 買入了人生第一支股票Spotify）$Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ “問你個問題，如果只在Youtube和Spotify兩個App中選一個。讓你帶着去一個荒島生活十年。你會選哪個呢？“ 我說。 “呃…” 女兒猶豫了一下，說，“我會選Youtube.”$谷歌(GOOG)$ “嗯… 視頻比純音樂還是有意思太多了。” 我說。“ “而且，我買谷歌還有另一個理由。”我接着說，”你知道嗎，全世界每年銷售15億部手機，15%裝蘋果系統，剩下85%裝安卓系統。我們之前已經買了蘋果，現在再買谷歌。我不知道十年後蘋果還是安卓系統誰會更成功。但是可以肯定，十年後人們比現在更加依賴智能手機。不出意外，那時的成功者總是蘋果或安卓其中的一個。它們倆的市場佔有率加起來也大概還是100%，市場卻更大了。“ “換句話說”，我說，“投資不需要‘二選一’。很多時候,你可以betting on both sides, 兩面都下注。“ 見女兒大概第一次聽說這個說法，有些發懵。我又說，“其實這個道理並不複雜。比如現在你在努力學中文。當今世界上，美國作爲唯一的超級大國，依舊是領","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342536458","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344168231,"gmtCreate":1618388617023,"gmtModify":1704710029059,"author":{"id":"3548709847942772","authorId":"3548709847942772","name":"好Q牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d6f9d132df4be0c76a45cdd3f13473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548709847942772","idStr":"3548709847942772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344168231","repostId":"345846237","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":345846237,"gmtCreate":1618304103527,"gmtModify":1704708832189,"author":{"id":"126199392658083","authorId":"126199392658083","name":"机构有话说","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8a79f8da6559cae9d644c1c24d24737","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"126199392658083","idStr":"126199392658083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZSmain\">$大豆主連(ZSmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZCmain\">$玉米主連(ZCmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZWmain\">$小麥主連(ZWmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZLmain\">$豆油主連(ZLmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GFmain\">$育肥牛主連(GFmain)$</a> 20分鐘的視頻乾貨，爲你詳細解讀農產品期貨基礎知識：合約的標準化設定，保證金交易規則和農產品行情判斷邏輯，快來一起學習吧！\n \n","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZSmain\">$大豆主連(ZSmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZCmain\">$玉米主連(ZCmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZWmain\">$小麥主連(ZWmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZLmain\">$豆油主連(ZLmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GFmain\">$育肥牛主連(GFmain)$</a> 20分鐘的視頻乾貨，爲你詳細解讀農產品期貨基礎知識：合約的標準化設定，保證金交易規則和農產品行情判斷邏輯，快來一起學習吧！","text":"$大豆主連(ZSmain)$ $玉米主連(ZCmain)$ $小麥主連(ZWmain)$ $豆油主連(ZLmain)$ $育肥牛主連(GFmain)$ 20分鐘的視頻乾貨，爲你詳細解讀農產品期貨基礎知識：合約的標準化設定，保證金交易規則和農產品行情判斷邏輯，快來一起學習吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345846237","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"64c4183f204a43f4a87596397e9b4c27","tweetId":"345846237","title":"20分钟入门农产品期货投资","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/b22ab7ba5285890816879236923/25b2de9ee20f003e488318e0.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc841186eb1b0606f6b63d96293bbe4","shareLink":"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20190705061946190/20190725081600407"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311265909,"gmtCreate":1611801099401,"gmtModify":1704863685125,"author":{"id":"3548709847942772","authorId":"3548709847942772","name":"好Q牛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d6f9d132df4be0c76a45cdd3f13473","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548709847942772","idStr":"3548709847942772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311265909","repostId":"313339599","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":313339599,"gmtCreate":1611664501104,"gmtModify":1704861811442,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483039f7d05988e78e38a07bc2e5c3db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"58341441844653","idStr":"58341441844653"},"themes":[],"title":"財報前，特斯拉還能上車嗎？","htmlText":"特斯拉將於北京時間1月27日盤後發佈第四季度財務報告，財報前，還能上車嗎？這篇文章想與大家探討一下特斯拉本次財報的看點。 先來簡單回顧一下Q3財報 特斯拉 3季報大超預期，公司再度確認了年交付50萬輛新車的目標。 3季度營收達到87.71億美元，環比上升45%，同比上升39%，高於市場預期的83.6億美元。 3季度淨利潤8.74億美元，環比上升94%，同比增加156%，連續5個季度實現盈利。 除了淨利潤不錯之外，特斯拉現金流的表現同樣令人印象深刻，特斯拉在第三季度創造了14億美元的自由現金流(FCF) ，遠高於第二季度的4.18億美元和3.71億美元。 按理說這麼好的財報，特斯拉應該會大漲，然而財報後特斯拉漲幅縮窄，主要是因爲特斯拉財報超預期是大概率事件，畢竟特斯拉的汽車銷售佔據了總營收的86.77%，而汽車銷售營收是由汽車交付量，以及ASP（單位車輛售價）決定的，結合之前公佈的創紀錄的Q3交付數據，3季度財報營收超預期並不意外。 唯一意外的是ASP上升了，2季度特斯拉平均售價是52271，3季度平均售價接近了55000，平均售價升高主要是受益於今年早些時候推出的Model Y。由於Model Y的整車價格要高於Model 3，也就是說Model Y 賣的錢越多，對於ASP的貢獻越大，特斯拉營收表現也會越好。除此之外3季度營收大增除了汽車銷售大增以外，還源於碳積分（regulatory credits）大增。 基於這種情況實現的營收大增，顯然並不能使市場滿意，這也就造成特斯拉財報後漲幅縮窄。 關於Q4財報的幾點看法 聊完了上季度的財報回顧，迴歸正題，今天來談談對於4季度財報的預期。根據彭博終端的數據，財報前分析師預計特斯拉4季度收入103.29億美元，調整後EPS爲1.011。從前段時間特斯拉公佈的季度交付來看，這季度特斯拉財報大概率不錯，由於特斯拉的收入來自於汽車銷","listText":"特斯拉將於北京時間1月27日盤後發佈第四季度財務報告，財報前，還能上車嗎？這篇文章想與大家探討一下特斯拉本次財報的看點。 先來簡單回顧一下Q3財報 特斯拉 3季報大超預期，公司再度確認了年交付50萬輛新車的目標。 3季度營收達到87.71億美元，環比上升45%，同比上升39%，高於市場預期的83.6億美元。 3季度淨利潤8.74億美元，環比上升94%，同比增加156%，連續5個季度實現盈利。 除了淨利潤不錯之外，特斯拉現金流的表現同樣令人印象深刻，特斯拉在第三季度創造了14億美元的自由現金流(FCF) ，遠高於第二季度的4.18億美元和3.71億美元。 按理說這麼好的財報，特斯拉應該會大漲，然而財報後特斯拉漲幅縮窄，主要是因爲特斯拉財報超預期是大概率事件，畢竟特斯拉的汽車銷售佔據了總營收的86.77%，而汽車銷售營收是由汽車交付量，以及ASP（單位車輛售價）決定的，結合之前公佈的創紀錄的Q3交付數據，3季度財報營收超預期並不意外。 唯一意外的是ASP上升了，2季度特斯拉平均售價是52271，3季度平均售價接近了55000，平均售價升高主要是受益於今年早些時候推出的Model Y。由於Model Y的整車價格要高於Model 3，也就是說Model Y 賣的錢越多，對於ASP的貢獻越大，特斯拉營收表現也會越好。除此之外3季度營收大增除了汽車銷售大增以外，還源於碳積分（regulatory credits）大增。 基於這種情況實現的營收大增，顯然並不能使市場滿意，這也就造成特斯拉財報後漲幅縮窄。 關於Q4財報的幾點看法 聊完了上季度的財報回顧，迴歸正題，今天來談談對於4季度財報的預期。根據彭博終端的數據，財報前分析師預計特斯拉4季度收入103.29億美元，調整後EPS爲1.011。從前段時間特斯拉公佈的季度交付來看，這季度特斯拉財報大概率不錯，由於特斯拉的收入來自於汽車銷","text":"特斯拉將於北京時間1月27日盤後發佈第四季度財務報告，財報前，還能上車嗎？這篇文章想與大家探討一下特斯拉本次財報的看點。 先來簡單回顧一下Q3財報 特斯拉 3季報大超預期，公司再度確認了年交付50萬輛新車的目標。 3季度營收達到87.71億美元，環比上升45%，同比上升39%，高於市場預期的83.6億美元。 3季度淨利潤8.74億美元，環比上升94%，同比增加156%，連續5個季度實現盈利。 除了淨利潤不錯之外，特斯拉現金流的表現同樣令人印象深刻，特斯拉在第三季度創造了14億美元的自由現金流(FCF) ，遠高於第二季度的4.18億美元和3.71億美元。 按理說這麼好的財報，特斯拉應該會大漲，然而財報後特斯拉漲幅縮窄，主要是因爲特斯拉財報超預期是大概率事件，畢竟特斯拉的汽車銷售佔據了總營收的86.77%，而汽車銷售營收是由汽車交付量，以及ASP（單位車輛售價）決定的，結合之前公佈的創紀錄的Q3交付數據，3季度財報營收超預期並不意外。 唯一意外的是ASP上升了，2季度特斯拉平均售價是52271，3季度平均售價接近了55000，平均售價升高主要是受益於今年早些時候推出的Model Y。由於Model Y的整車價格要高於Model 3，也就是說Model Y 賣的錢越多，對於ASP的貢獻越大，特斯拉營收表現也會越好。除此之外3季度營收大增除了汽車銷售大增以外，還源於碳積分（regulatory credits）大增。 基於這種情況實現的營收大增，顯然並不能使市場滿意，這也就造成特斯拉財報後漲幅縮窄。 關於Q4財報的幾點看法 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