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2021-08-30
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Meituan's Q2 revenue was 43.76 billion yuan, with a special reminder that "may be fined"
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2021-08-20
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16:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Meituan's Q2 revenue was 43.76 billion yuan, with a special reminder that \"may be fined\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107044337","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月30日（周一），本地生活服务巨头美团公布2021年第二季度及上半年财报。公司二季度业绩超预期，但同时提示“本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。”\n主要业绩\n第二季度\n\n二季度营收","content":"<p>August 30th (Monday), local life service giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Announced financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2021. The company's second-quarter performance exceeded expectations, but at the same time reminded that \"<b>The Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines. \"</b></p><p><b>MAJOR</b></p><p>Second quarter</p><p><ul><li>Revenue in the second quarter was 43.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and the market estimated 42.36 billion yuan.</li><li>The net loss in the second quarter was 3.36 billion yuan, the market estimated a loss of 5.25 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period last year was 2.21 billion yuan.</li><li>The loss per share in the second quarter was 0.56 yuan, compared with the profit of 0.37 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f84b2c78970e065b9a962d08e0dd22\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First half of the year</p><p><ul><li>First half revenue<b>807.75</b>100 million yuan, previous value: 41.476 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.8%.</li><li>Net profit for the first half of the<b>-8, 203 million yuan,</b>Previous value: 631 million yuan.</li><li>Loss per share in the first half of the year was 1.38 yuan, compared with profit of 0.11 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2896f97cc5f0ed1ae4779d7da61856\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, said:</p><p>This quarter, Meituan's various businesses continued to maintain steady growth, thanks to the sustained and stable recovery of China's economy, and also due to our deep integration of digitalization with the real economy and the service economy. Recently, relevant state departments have issued a series of policies and opinions, which have also given Meituan a clearer direction. We resolutely implement them, actively fulfill our social responsibilities, and continue to use the power of science and technology to help high-quality economic development and provide high-quality life services. Help everyone eat better and live better.</p><p><b>Business segments</b></p><p><ul><li>Net cash inflow from operating activities in the second quarter decreased to RMB2.9 billion from RMB5.6 billion in the same period in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the balances of cash and cash equivalents and short-term wealth management investments were RMB 71.4 billion and RMB 51.1 billion, respectively, while the related balances as of March 31, 2021 were RMB 17.8 billion and RMB 35.3 billion, respectively.</li><li>In the second quarter, the transaction amount of food delivery business increased by 59.5% year-on-year to RMB 173.6 billion. The average daily number of food delivery transactions increased by 58.9% year-on-year to 38.9 million. Revenue increased by 59.0% year-on-year to RMB 23.1 billion. Operating profit increased by 95.2% to RMB2.4 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin further improved from 8.6% to 10.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, the in-store, hotel and travel segment continued to grow steadily, with revenue increasing by 89.3% year-on-year to RMB 8.6 billion. Operating profit increased by 93.7% from RMB1.9 billion in the same period of 2020 to RMB3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin increased from 41.6% to 42.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, the revenue of the new business and others segment increased by 113.6% year-on-year to RMB 12 billion, mainly driven by the growth of retail business, B2B catering supply chain services and shared cycling services. In the second quarter of 2021, the operating loss of this segment increased to RMB 9.2 billion year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the operating loss margin continued to improve by 4.8 percentage points to negative 76.8%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012925fcfe389bb86c7ae0178c1ec62d\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The number of trading users hits a record high and platform activity rises</b></p><p>The financial report shows that the number of annual transaction users and active merchants of Meituan this quarter was 630 million and 7.7 million respectively, both hitting record highs.</p><p>The average annual number of users' transactions reached 32.8, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. In terms of main business, food delivery and in-store hotel and travel businesses have achieved steady growth, with revenue increasing to 23.1 billion yuan and 8.6 billion yuan respectively.</p><p>At the same time, in the first half of 2021, Meituan continued to play the role of an \"employment reservoir\", with an average daily active rider of more than 1 million. In the second quarter, the cost of riders was 15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%.</p><p>The survey data also shows that 60% of full-time riders earn more than 5,000 yuan a month.</p><p>Chen Shaohui, CFO of Meituan, said:</p><p>Meituan will continue to provide definite rights and employment security for the majority of riders, and take the lead in responding to the call of the state to solve their worries. In the process of continuing to support the real economy with technological innovation, we will also continue to pay attention to the common interests and long-term development of other platform participants such as merchants, and take long-term returns as the guide, constantly optimize operating efficiency, and create greater social value as the primary goal of the enterprise.</p><p><b>RESULTS ANALYSIS AND</b></p><p>Meituan said: As we continue to invest in areas that can bring long-term value to the company and provide better products and services to consumers and merchants, operating losses in new businesses and other segments have expanded accordingly.</p><p>In April 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China (the State Administration for Market Regulation) launched relevant investigations against the Company in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China. As of the date of this report, the relevant investigation is still in progress, and the Company actively cooperates with the investigation of the State Administration for Market Regulation.<b>The Company cannot predict the circumstances or outcome of such investigations at this stage, and the Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines.</b></p><p><b>Meituan's stock price changes after the announcement of past quarter financial reports and reasons</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b91e7289345671be684a73dcc1c1b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meituan's Q2 revenue was 43.76 billion yuan, with a special reminder that \"may be fined\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeituan's Q2 revenue was 43.76 billion yuan, with a special reminder that \"may be fined\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 16:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 30th (Monday), local life service giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Announced financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2021. The company's second-quarter performance exceeded expectations, but at the same time reminded that \"<b>The Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines. \"</b></p><p><b>MAJOR</b></p><p>Second quarter</p><p><ul><li>Revenue in the second quarter was 43.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and the market estimated 42.36 billion yuan.</li><li>The net loss in the second quarter was 3.36 billion yuan, the market estimated a loss of 5.25 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period last year was 2.21 billion yuan.</li><li>The loss per share in the second quarter was 0.56 yuan, compared with the profit of 0.37 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f84b2c78970e065b9a962d08e0dd22\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First half of the year</p><p><ul><li>First half revenue<b>807.75</b>100 million yuan, previous value: 41.476 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.8%.</li><li>Net profit for the first half of the<b>-8, 203 million yuan,</b>Previous value: 631 million yuan.</li><li>Loss per share in the first half of the year was 1.38 yuan, compared with profit of 0.11 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2896f97cc5f0ed1ae4779d7da61856\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, said:</p><p>This quarter, Meituan's various businesses continued to maintain steady growth, thanks to the sustained and stable recovery of China's economy, and also due to our deep integration of digitalization with the real economy and the service economy. Recently, relevant state departments have issued a series of policies and opinions, which have also given Meituan a clearer direction. We resolutely implement them, actively fulfill our social responsibilities, and continue to use the power of science and technology to help high-quality economic development and provide high-quality life services. Help everyone eat better and live better.</p><p><b>Business segments</b></p><p><ul><li>Net cash inflow from operating activities in the second quarter decreased to RMB2.9 billion from RMB5.6 billion in the same period in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the balances of cash and cash equivalents and short-term wealth management investments were RMB 71.4 billion and RMB 51.1 billion, respectively, while the related balances as of March 31, 2021 were RMB 17.8 billion and RMB 35.3 billion, respectively.</li><li>In the second quarter, the transaction amount of food delivery business increased by 59.5% year-on-year to RMB 173.6 billion. The average daily number of food delivery transactions increased by 58.9% year-on-year to 38.9 million. Revenue increased by 59.0% year-on-year to RMB 23.1 billion. Operating profit increased by 95.2% to RMB2.4 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin further improved from 8.6% to 10.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, the in-store, hotel and travel segment continued to grow steadily, with revenue increasing by 89.3% year-on-year to RMB 8.6 billion. Operating profit increased by 93.7% from RMB1.9 billion in the same period of 2020 to RMB3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin increased from 41.6% to 42.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, the revenue of the new business and others segment increased by 113.6% year-on-year to RMB 12 billion, mainly driven by the growth of retail business, B2B catering supply chain services and shared cycling services. In the second quarter of 2021, the operating loss of this segment increased to RMB 9.2 billion year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the operating loss margin continued to improve by 4.8 percentage points to negative 76.8%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012925fcfe389bb86c7ae0178c1ec62d\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The number of trading users hits a record high and platform activity rises</b></p><p>The financial report shows that the number of annual transaction users and active merchants of Meituan this quarter was 630 million and 7.7 million respectively, both hitting record highs.</p><p>The average annual number of users' transactions reached 32.8, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. In terms of main business, food delivery and in-store hotel and travel businesses have achieved steady growth, with revenue increasing to 23.1 billion yuan and 8.6 billion yuan respectively.</p><p>At the same time, in the first half of 2021, Meituan continued to play the role of an \"employment reservoir\", with an average daily active rider of more than 1 million. In the second quarter, the cost of riders was 15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%.</p><p>The survey data also shows that 60% of full-time riders earn more than 5,000 yuan a month.</p><p>Chen Shaohui, CFO of Meituan, said:</p><p>Meituan will continue to provide definite rights and employment security for the majority of riders, and take the lead in responding to the call of the state to solve their worries. In the process of continuing to support the real economy with technological innovation, we will also continue to pay attention to the common interests and long-term development of other platform participants such as merchants, and take long-term returns as the guide, constantly optimize operating efficiency, and create greater social value as the primary goal of the enterprise.</p><p><b>RESULTS ANALYSIS AND</b></p><p>Meituan said: As we continue to invest in areas that can bring long-term value to the company and provide better products and services to consumers and merchants, operating losses in new businesses and other segments have expanded accordingly.</p><p>In April 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China (the State Administration for Market Regulation) launched relevant investigations against the Company in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China. As of the date of this report, the relevant investigation is still in progress, and the Company actively cooperates with the investigation of the State Administration for Market Regulation.<b>The Company cannot predict the circumstances or outcome of such investigations at this stage, and the Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines.</b></p><p><b>Meituan's stock price changes after the announcement of past quarter financial reports and reasons</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b91e7289345671be684a73dcc1c1b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107044337","content_text":"8月30日（周一），本地生活服务巨头美团公布2021年第二季度及上半年财报。公司二季度业绩超预期，但同时提示“本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。”\n主要业绩\n第二季度\n\n二季度营收437.6亿元，同比增长77%，市场预估423.6亿元。\n二季度净亏损33.6亿元，市场预估亏损52.5亿元，去年同期净利润22.1亿元。\n二季度每股亏损0.56元，去年同期盈利0.37元。\n\n\n上半年\n\n上半年营收807.75亿元，前值：414.76亿元，同比增长94.8%。\n上半年净利润-82.03亿元，前值：6.31亿元。\n上半年每股亏损1.38元，去年同期盈利0.11元。\n\n\n美团CEO王兴表示：\n\n 本季度美团各项业务继续保持稳健增长，得益于中国经济持续稳定恢复，也源于我们将数字化与实体经济、服务经济深度融合。\n\n\n 最近，国家相关部门出台了系列政策和意见，这也给了美团更明确的方向，我们坚决落实，积极履行社会责任，继续用科技的力量，助力经济高质量发展，提供高品质生活服务，帮大家吃得更好，生活更好。\n\n\n业务分类\n\n第二季度的经营活动所得现金流入净额由2020年同期的人民币56亿元减少至人民币29亿元。截至2021年6月30日，现金及现金等价物及短期理财投资的结余分别为人民币714亿元及人民币511亿元，而截至2021年3月31日的相关结余则分别为人民币178亿元及人民币353亿元。\n第二季度，餐饮外卖业务交易金额同比增长59.5%至人民币1,736亿元。餐饮外卖日均交易笔数同比增长58.9%至38.9百万笔。收入同比增长59.0%至人民币231亿元。经营溢利于2021年第二季度增加95.2%至人民币24亿元，而经营利润率则由8.6%进一步改善至10.6%。\n第二季度，到店、酒店及旅游分部继续稳定增长，收入同比增加89.3%至人民币86亿元。经营溢利由2020年同期的人民币19亿元增加93.7%至2021年第二季度的人民币37亿元，而经营利润率则由41.6%增加至42.6%。\n第二季度，新业务及其他分部的收入同比增长113.6%至人民币120亿元，主要受零售业务、B2B餐饮供应链服务及共享骑行服务增长的推动。2021年第二季度，该分部的经营亏损同比及环比增长至人民币92亿元，而经营亏损率则继续改善4.8个百分点至负76.8%。\n\n\n\n交易用户数创历史新高 平台活跃度上升\n财报显示，本季度美团年度交易用户数和活跃商家数分别为6.3亿和770万，均创历史新高。\n用户年均交易笔数达32.8笔，同比增长27.8%。主体业务方面，餐饮外卖和到店酒旅业务均实现稳健增长，收入分别增至231亿元和86亿元。\n同时，2021年上半年，美团继续发挥“就业蓄水池”作用，日均活跃骑手超过100万人，二季度骑手成本支出155亿元，同比增长53%。\n调研数据还显示，6成全职骑手月收入高于5000元。\n美团CFO陈少晖表示：\n\n 美团将继续为广大骑手群体提供确定的权益及就业保障，率先响应国家号召，解决他们的后顾之忧。在以科技创新继续助力实体经济的过程中，我们也会继续关注商家等其他平台参与方共同的利益和长远发展，以长期回报为导向，不断优化经营效率，以创造更大的社会价值为企业首要目标。\n\n\n业绩分析及前景预期\n美团表示：由于我们继续投资于能够为本公司带来长期价值并为消费者和商家提供更好产品和服务的领域，新业务及其他分部的经营亏损随之扩大。\n2021年4月，中华人民共和国国家市场监督管理总局（国家市场监督管理总局）根据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》对本公司展开相关调查。截至本报告日期，相关调查仍在进行，本公司积极配合国家市场监督管理总局的调查。本公司于现阶段无法预测相关调查的情况或结果，本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。\n美团过往季度财报公布后股价变动情况及原因","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838698947,"gmtCreate":1629388849789,"gmtModify":1676530026958,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reboot error","listText":"Reboot error","text":"Reboot error","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838698947","repostId":"1198913754","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198913754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198913754?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198913754","media":"Alpha","summary":"中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。","content":"<p>Source | MorganStanley</p><p>Translation | Lion Knife</p><p>Beijing is shifting its regulatory priorities to striking a balance between growth, sustainability, improving social imbalances and maintaining various security. This will shift the division of economic benefits more to workers and reduce corporate profits. We believe this will have a long-term and far-reaching market impact.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The reset of the underlying regulatory logic brought about by the new goals</b></p><p>We are standing at an important turning point in China's economy and capital markets. After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, Beijing is adjusting its regulatory priorities to pay more attention to sustainability, social equity, data security, and autonomy and control. China's escalation of restrictions on financial technology, big technology giants, after-school education, digital currency, and carbon emissions is the embodiment of this logical reset.</p><p><b>Economic impact: Under the new logical paradigm, China seems to be trying to tilt the distribution of economic benefits to workers, which will lead to a decline in the proportion of corporate profits.</b>We see that industry policy risks related to social imbalance, economic sustainability, and data and network security may rise, while high-end manufacturing, independent and controllable technology, and clean energy are supported by favorable policies. We continue to closely monitor possible \"over-regulation\" risks. At the same time, we also pay attention to possible reversal signals, including, for example, IPOs of technology companies in Hong Kong, clear signals to solve employee welfare issues of platform companies, or speeches from top policymakers.</p><p><b>Investment impact: We expect this reset to have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the valuation and ERP of China's equity market, but mainly because its impact is on the Internet sector, which is an important weight of China index, accounting for about 40% to 50% in MSCI China. The future revenue and profit margin of this sector are still uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Challenges and opportunities: Data-heavy technology and platform companies, as well as real estate companies, are still under policy suppression. The \"new economy\" sector will continue to enjoy policy support.</b></p><p><b>From growth priority to equity: After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, the new goals are social equality, data security, and autonomy and control.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e58614008bd9193516d44d50facb99\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd3e0278e0c3b26a6ad4d7e8e8be9e7\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Four main areas of policy concern: social risk, country risk, financial risk, environmental risk</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e33c676aeb760ee9b2f48bf2660cef\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Every regulation in Chinese history has brought about the subversion of the underlying logic of an industry: mining, dairy products, wine, cross-border investment, games, medicine, and this time the Internet:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677fc9d0d275a75c63d3cf3ecbb4f825\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Industry shocks caused by past regulations:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a06b840890b3c3c9b0d3296642172f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk points that may need to be observed include: market shocks caused by over-regulation, insufficient policy coordination, insufficient policy communication, and ultimately possible drag on productivity:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e7c756f11725be90e6fdf4c294be5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Event resolution signpost that can be observed:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679e1e315dee59217044c5838cfa0999\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact on China's equity index is mainly in MSCI China (the Internet accounts for 47%):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76dc2db905695bea07925978efd4ada\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>How to Understand China's Logical Reset</b></p><p>New goals in a new era: We believe that the recent regulatory tightening reflects changes in China's underlying logic, not just for Internet giants. In the past decade, Beijing's core goal has been to maintain double-digit income growth, eradicate absolute poverty, and give the highest weight to economic growth. However, it also brought about huge social imbalances, which prompted the current government to turn to \"getting rich together---common prosperity\" as a new development goal, and will include social balance, supply chain controllability, data security, etc. introduced new government KPIs.</p><p>Policy development over the past nine months reflects this goal. Simply put, we believe that China is balancing rising corporate profits with declining worker compensation, so that workers can share more of the benefits of economic development, which may lead to systematic valuation declines in some sectors. We believe that policy makers must face a severe balancing challenge: if China still wants to become a strong economy, it must ensure the vitality of private enterprises to promote innovation and help the internationalization of RMB and capital flow. Although the new regulation imposes restrictions on social responsibility and data use, we still believe that it will not have a disproportionate impact on other equity sectors.</p><p><b>But this does not mean that there will be no shock in the equity market:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ccd973f1b506ca1c7605054a90ac31\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f37d326af3cfee7a2fec20f8dbdf4f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Many of the contents of this supervision are actually old contents. Why did it suddenly accelerate in the past nine months? We have seen this scene countless times: the mining industry in 2006-08, the dairy industry in 2008-10, the high-end liquor catering industry in 13-14, the foreign investment in 16-17, and the drugs in 18-19 have mostly existed for 1-2 years.</p><p><b>How to deal with the position adjustment: It is still necessary to temporarily avoid industry sectors with negative policies (targets related to people's livelihood and safety). More attention: new economic sectors such as clean energy, data and network security, high-end manufacturing, controllable semiconductor supply chain, and innovative biopharmaceuticals.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09a55a3f8b415786b9dfabf4f429e1\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Several past policy impact experiences</b></p><p><b>2012-2016: Anti-corruption</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb81809fdebb42213ea92a256c082ff\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50aaf196ed86994418e4335eaf8d5e0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85e9cd18f472ac26bab15a70c87ea1\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598bdacee94a0ad90d52853ce13cae6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Supply-side reform from 2015 to 2018:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db23d7ec3bf09f8c1bd8a07ed83d98\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cfdf80141ae5023b8f1110ca3fb4360\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d613f5fa8f6a97ceea3b707c9edc60cf\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c883fc15cbd0f913f7e7e73759aa4a\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b01a86595cb5d8ca8a977878bd8e271\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bcb184613ed9d1170ca4adb87ae947\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Published a document titled<b>Consumption 2030: \"Service\" First</b>According to the report, by 2030, China's consumption pattern will undergo tremendous changes. As a result of this change, services will create more value to GDP than goods.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley, by 2030, the per capita income of Chinese households will double, and the purchasing power will be dominated by the age groups 35-44 and 55 + (baby boomers born in 1960s and their children). In addition, by 2030, the focus of consumption will shift from the current \"young consumers\" to \"household needs and retirement consumption\".</p><p>With<b>\"Emotional health\"</b>And<b>\"Self-actualization\"</b>Targeted consumption will become increasingly prominent, and consumers will increasingly rely on a \"fully automated\" society. Morgan Stanley believes that the consumption concept of Chinese consumers will lead the world.</p><p><b>So what are the main drivers of this change?</b>Morgan Stanley believes that there are five factors: income, demographic characteristics, technology, policy and culture. At the same time, the report also points out possible risk points in the process of consumption development.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52260f7816eccaeef6f290065075b3cb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"1113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is a partial summary of the report:</p><p><b>China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest consumer</b></p><p>In this report, we update our forecast for China's consumer market based on changes in household income and policy trends. We believe that China's average household income will rise from US $6,000 to US $12,000 by 2030. The important driving forces of growth are urbanization 2.0, continued economic opening to maintain the international competitiveness of China's supply chain, and continuous reform to attract foreign capital inflows.</p><p>Although the aging population will naturally increase the consumption rate, Chinese policymakers are also working hard to promote the internal economic circulation strategy to unlock China's consumption potential, mainly with the aim of coping with the challenges brought by a multi-polar post-COVID-19 era to China's exports. challenge.</p><p><b>On the one hand, the main means to promote this strategy is digitalization, so as to increase the penetration rate of e-commerce in both physical and service aspects and support consumption anytime and anywhere; On the other hand, through reform, the bottleneck factors affecting consumption, such as logistics, import taxes, and household registration, should be eliminated.</b></p><p>Therefore, we expect that the size of China's consumer market will double in the next decade, reaching 12.7 trillion USD, which is 30% higher than our 2017 forecast of 9.7 trillion USD.</p><p><b>This means that in the next decade, China's consumer market will maintain an annualized growth rate of 7.9%, making it one of the fastest growing countries in the world.</b></p><p>China's commodity consumer market has now surpassed that of the United States as its largest market in the world. If service consumption is included, the current consumer market in the United States is still significantly larger than that in China. But if our prediction comes true, even if service consumption is included, China will become the largest consumer market in the world in ten years.</p><p>An important feature of the changes in China's consumer market in the next decade is that service consumption exceeds physical consumption.</p><p>We now expect the proportion of service consumption to increase from the current 45% to 52%, with an annualized growth rate of 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of physical consumption in the same period.</p><p><b>This is different from western countries.</b>In western countries, when the average household income reaches $8,000 to $10,000, the increase in the proportion of service consumption basically stagnates. However, in China, we have observed a steady upward trend. On the one hand, the main reason is China's unique demographic structure. China's one-child policy, which has lasted for many years, has greatly increased the burden of the prime population to look after their elderly parents, thus bringing more demand for service consumption. On the other hand, based on the high degree of digitalization of mobile Internet, the convenience and speed of obtaining services are greatly enhanced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9be3c9e1ba80d995089f26b991fee7\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which tracks are worth investing in?</b></p><p>Investment framework we use: As China's consumer market growth shifts from physical-driven to service-driven, and the focus shifts from young people's consumption to family needs and retirement plans, we expect corresponding changes in all walks of life. In order to better analyze these changes, we divide many industries into four major categories based on their product lines and the driving forces of industry changes:</p><p><b>➤ Expansion</b>(Service-related industries mainly fall into this category)</p><p>In the next few years, it will face structured growth, such as: property management, medical services, elderly care services, medical insurance, education, domestic tourism and inbound tourism, tourism shopping, especially duty-free shops, family convenience services and local life services.</p><p><b>➤ Evolve</b>(mainly driven by new business models)</p><p>The next few years will face structural changes. Divided into two categories again. One is the evolutionary business model, such as: integration platform, supply chain management and sales channel management services, the implementation of C2M (Consumer2Manufacturer, that is, mass customization service) business model, and a wider range of AI, AR and VR applications.</p><p><b>➤ newly-developing</b>(an industry driven by a combination of technology and services)</p><p>Industries that are still limited in scale in 2020, but will have significant commercial influence before 2030. For example: emotional partners, rehabilitation medical services, services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>(business and consumer categories), dating services, and consumers who pay more attention to the company's Social responsibility (ESG, Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance, that is, Environmental protection, Social responsibility, and Corporate Governance).</p><p><b>➤ Pre-growth</b>(Those mature industries that have been subverted by demographic changes and technology)</p><p>For example: low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, traditional cars, and traditional home appliances.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18be9f38bf23ac7c702e3420cd217e67\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above classification of many industries based on the outlook for the next decade has laid the foundation for our top-down stock selection methodology.</p><p>Below we further refine this classification system and analyze the companies in each category through four element dimensions to form the framework for our research on individual stocks.<b>These four elements are: brand, channel, technology and service. With this framework, we can conduct research on the competitiveness of a company within the industry.</b></p><p><b>Investment conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect institutionalized services (education, integrated platforms, healthcare, elderly care services, medical insurance, supply chain management), smart life (digital property management, smart homes, and electric vehicles), life experience enhancement services/products (emotional companions) Categories such as pets, toys, rehabilitation medical services, service robots, and social platforms) will have steady and rapid growth.</p><p>But offline platforms, such as traditional cars and home appliances, will face the fate of being subverted. We also expect some fast-growing industries to face a slowdown in growth, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, and traditional household goods.</p><p><b>Five Drivers and Possible Risk Points</b></p><p>Five major driving factors for the growth and model evolution of China's consumer market in the next decade:</p><p><b>(1) Income-The process of becoming a high-income country is usually accompanied by the steady growth of service consumption.</b></p><p>According to our calculations, per capita disposable income will double from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030. From the international experience, when the per capita disposable income reaches 8,000-10,000 USD, the share of service consumption will grow steadily. In the next ten years, the average annual compound growth rate of service consumption in China is expected to reach 9.2%, exceeding 6.7% of commodity consumption.</p><p><b>This trend may be related to the following two factors:</b></p><p>1. Before the full opening of the second child, China's family planning policy led to the aging of the population and increased the nursing burden of the elderly. Now, this phenomenon is likely to be translated into more service consumption demand.</p><p>2. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has further deepened the public's awareness of technologies such as big data. This year may become an inflection point for the large-scale use of technologies. With the widespread application of basic technologies, the service threshold will continue to decrease.</p><p><b>(2) Population characteristics-the most important generational transition occurs within 2-3 years</b></p><p>Changes in China's population policy in the past few decades have led to uneven distribution of the population among all age groups; The rapid changes of China's economy in the past few decades have also led to the distribution of income levels among all age groups being different from that of ordinary economies.</p><p>According to our research, by 2030, the two age groups with the highest concentration of population distribution will be 35 to 44 years old and over 55 years old.</p><p>From the perspective of income level, these two age groups will also happen to be the two age groups with the highest disposable income. From the perspective of consumption behavior, the main consumption expenditure of people aged 35 to 44 is concentrated in household needs, while those over 55 are mainly aging and retired people.</p><p>Based on this analysis, we conclude that China's consumer market will transition from young people as the main force in 2020 to family needs and retirement plans as the main force in 2030.</p><p><b>(3) Technology-China's unique consumption growth path</b></p><p>Digitalization can also strongly support the conclusion that China will become a consumption-driven economy from another angle.</p><p>The extremely high penetration rate of digitalization in China has greatly improved the operating efficiency of toC companies and the interaction efficiency between consumers and sales channels.</p><p>Digitalization is also in line with the Chinese government's urbanization strategy aiming at super smart cities. This strategy hopes to realize faster, safer, more environmentally friendly and more livable urban communities with the help of digital technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence.</p><p><b>Specifically, we see two different trends in promoting consumption:</b></p><p><b>1. Digitalization of traditional economy:</b>This will improve operational efficiency as a whole and enhance the spending power of families.</p><p><b>2. New lifestyles in super smart cities:</b>The widespread application of next-generation technologies can support consumption anytime, anywhere. These technologies include: super APP, smart home based on the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and big data analytics.</p><p><b>(4) Policy-government support to release consumption potential</b></p><p>China's 14 five-year plans will focus on developing sustainable growth driven by domestic demand to cope with the multi-polar post-COVID-19 world, and are also working hard to promote the internal economic circulation strategy to unlock China's consumption potential.</p><p>When Japan's population began to age in 1990, the urbanization rate had reached 77%, and the household savings rate was at a relatively low level of 17%.</p><p>However, China's current urbanization rate is only 61%, and the household savings rate is at a high level of 35%. It seems that the consumption potential that can be tapped is still very huge.</p><p>Therefore, we expect to see various measures on both the supply side and the demand side in the next few years to eliminate consumption bottlenecks. Supply-side measures include upgrading new infrastructure, upgrading high-speed rail network, and facilitating consumption return. Measures on the demand side include increasing the coverage of social welfare, reducing income inequality and promoting vocational training.</p><p><b>(5) Culture-influenced by consumer values</b></p><p>Cultural differences among different countries may be an important reason for different consumption behaviors. What to buy, where to buy, and even how to buy it, Chinese consumers, consumers in western countries, and even consumers in other Asian countries may not understand the behavior.</p><p>Although globalization has brought many western elements to the lifestyle of contemporary China, we can still see that Chinese consumers are rooted in China's unique local culture.</p><p>1. Pay great attention to family ties and are willing to provide considerable financial support to family members.</p><p>2. When spending, you often have long-term goals.</p><p>3. There are significant differences in lifestyles among different age groups (such as the use of online platforms and travel needs)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2443caaf2ad039bb2cb70d7b5b8ba79f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Possible risk points:</b></p><p><b>(1) Anti-monopoly measures for integrated technology platforms:</b>The rapid penetration and growth of service-related consumption is highly dependent on the integrated Internet technology platform. The anti-monopoly policy issued by the government aims to prevent large technology companies from monopolizing the market and promote healthy market competition, but too aggressive policies may also delay the growth of service-related consumption.</p><p><b>(2) Tightening of consumer credit:</b>Policymakers have recently upgraded the supervision of Internet small loans and consumer credit platforms, but we think the impact on consumption should be small, because the balance sheet of Chinese households as a whole still looks healthy. However, if the policy further tightens consumer credit and even affects banking channels, it may have a negative impact on the growth of consumption.</p><p><b>(3) Relatively slow advancement of social security reform:</b>We believe that more universal and even social security coverage, especially in those key metropolitan areas, will effectively reduce the money people save to cope with the uncertainty of the future, thus promoting consumption. Therefore, if the advancement of reforms in these areas is slower than expected, it will affect the release of consumption potential.</p><p><b>(4) Privacy concerns for big data:</b>A big advantage China has is that it faces low resistance in consumer data collection in the process of building smart cities. If the public pays more attention to data privacy, or the international data supervision and coordination mechanism is facing an upgrade, it will lead to restrictions on the application of many new technologies based on big data analysis in the consumer field. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the widespread application of personal positioning technology and health codes has improved the public's acceptance of big data applications to a certain extent, thus reducing the risk in this regard.</p><p><b>(5) Social problems caused unintentionally:</b>The widespread use of automation and artificial intelligence may lead to worse unemployment problems than expected, especially in construction and low value-added manufacturing. Of course, we believe that vocational training and fast-growing services can solve some problems, but if the application of high technology is too fast, social friction caused by unemployment still risks inhibiting consumption growth.</p>","source":"lsy1628997733188","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Source | MorganStanley</p><p>Translation | Lion Knife</p><p>Beijing is shifting its regulatory priorities to striking a balance between growth, sustainability, improving social imbalances and maintaining various security. This will shift the division of economic benefits more to workers and reduce corporate profits. We believe this will have a long-term and far-reaching market impact.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The reset of the underlying regulatory logic brought about by the new goals</b></p><p>We are standing at an important turning point in China's economy and capital markets. After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, Beijing is adjusting its regulatory priorities to pay more attention to sustainability, social equity, data security, and autonomy and control. China's escalation of restrictions on financial technology, big technology giants, after-school education, digital currency, and carbon emissions is the embodiment of this logical reset.</p><p><b>Economic impact: Under the new logical paradigm, China seems to be trying to tilt the distribution of economic benefits to workers, which will lead to a decline in the proportion of corporate profits.</b>We see that industry policy risks related to social imbalance, economic sustainability, and data and network security may rise, while high-end manufacturing, independent and controllable technology, and clean energy are supported by favorable policies. We continue to closely monitor possible \"over-regulation\" risks. At the same time, we also pay attention to possible reversal signals, including, for example, IPOs of technology companies in Hong Kong, clear signals to solve employee welfare issues of platform companies, or speeches from top policymakers.</p><p><b>Investment impact: We expect this reset to have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the valuation and ERP of China's equity market, but mainly because its impact is on the Internet sector, which is an important weight of China index, accounting for about 40% to 50% in MSCI China. The future revenue and profit margin of this sector are still uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Challenges and opportunities: Data-heavy technology and platform companies, as well as real estate companies, are still under policy suppression. The \"new economy\" sector will continue to enjoy policy support.</b></p><p><b>From growth priority to equity: After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, the new goals are social equality, data security, and autonomy and control.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e58614008bd9193516d44d50facb99\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd3e0278e0c3b26a6ad4d7e8e8be9e7\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Four main areas of policy concern: social risk, country risk, financial risk, environmental risk</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e33c676aeb760ee9b2f48bf2660cef\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Every regulation in Chinese history has brought about the subversion of the underlying logic of an industry: mining, dairy products, wine, cross-border investment, games, medicine, and this time the Internet:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677fc9d0d275a75c63d3cf3ecbb4f825\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Industry shocks caused by past regulations:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a06b840890b3c3c9b0d3296642172f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk points that may need to be observed include: market shocks caused by over-regulation, insufficient policy coordination, insufficient policy communication, and ultimately possible drag on productivity:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e7c756f11725be90e6fdf4c294be5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Event resolution signpost that can be observed:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679e1e315dee59217044c5838cfa0999\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact on China's equity index is mainly in MSCI China (the Internet accounts for 47%):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76dc2db905695bea07925978efd4ada\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>How to Understand China's Logical Reset</b></p><p>New goals in a new era: We believe that the recent regulatory tightening reflects changes in China's underlying logic, not just for Internet giants. In the past decade, Beijing's core goal has been to maintain double-digit income growth, eradicate absolute poverty, and give the highest weight to economic growth. However, it also brought about huge social imbalances, which prompted the current government to turn to \"getting rich together---common prosperity\" as a new development goal, and will include social balance, supply chain controllability, data security, etc. introduced new government KPIs.</p><p>Policy development over the past nine months reflects this goal. Simply put, we believe that China is balancing rising corporate profits with declining worker compensation, so that workers can share more of the benefits of economic development, which may lead to systematic valuation declines in some sectors. We believe that policy makers must face a severe balancing challenge: if China still wants to become a strong economy, it must ensure the vitality of private enterprises to promote innovation and help the internationalization of RMB and capital flow. Although the new regulation imposes restrictions on social responsibility and data use, we still believe that it will not have a disproportionate impact on other equity sectors.</p><p><b>But this does not mean that there will be no shock in the equity market:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ccd973f1b506ca1c7605054a90ac31\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f37d326af3cfee7a2fec20f8dbdf4f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Many of the contents of this supervision are actually old contents. Why did it suddenly accelerate in the past nine months? We have seen this scene countless times: the mining industry in 2006-08, the dairy industry in 2008-10, the high-end liquor catering industry in 13-14, the foreign investment in 16-17, and the drugs in 18-19 have mostly existed for 1-2 years.</p><p><b>How to deal with the position adjustment: It is still necessary to temporarily avoid industry sectors with negative policies (targets related to people's livelihood and safety). More attention: new economic sectors such as clean energy, data and network security, high-end manufacturing, controllable semiconductor supply chain, and innovative biopharmaceuticals.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09a55a3f8b415786b9dfabf4f429e1\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Several past policy impact experiences</b></p><p><b>2012-2016: Anti-corruption</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb81809fdebb42213ea92a256c082ff\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50aaf196ed86994418e4335eaf8d5e0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85e9cd18f472ac26bab15a70c87ea1\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598bdacee94a0ad90d52853ce13cae6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Supply-side reform from 2015 to 2018:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db23d7ec3bf09f8c1bd8a07ed83d98\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cfdf80141ae5023b8f1110ca3fb4360\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d613f5fa8f6a97ceea3b707c9edc60cf\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c883fc15cbd0f913f7e7e73759aa4a\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b01a86595cb5d8ca8a977878bd8e271\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bcb184613ed9d1170ca4adb87ae947\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Published a document titled<b>Consumption 2030: \"Service\" First</b>According to the report, by 2030, China's consumption pattern will undergo tremendous changes. As a result of this change, services will create more value to GDP than goods.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley, by 2030, the per capita income of Chinese households will double, and the purchasing power will be dominated by the age groups 35-44 and 55 + (baby boomers born in 1960s and their children). In addition, by 2030, the focus of consumption will shift from the current \"young consumers\" to \"household needs and retirement consumption\".</p><p>With<b>\"Emotional health\"</b>And<b>\"Self-actualization\"</b>Targeted consumption will become increasingly prominent, and consumers will increasingly rely on a \"fully automated\" society. Morgan Stanley believes that the consumption concept of Chinese consumers will lead the world.</p><p><b>So what are the main drivers of this change?</b>Morgan Stanley believes that there are five factors: income, demographic characteristics, technology, policy and culture. At the same time, the report also points out possible risk points in the process of consumption development.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52260f7816eccaeef6f290065075b3cb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"1113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is a partial summary of the report:</p><p><b>China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest consumer</b></p><p>In this report, we update our forecast for China's consumer market based on changes in household income and policy trends. We believe that China's average household income will rise from US $6,000 to US $12,000 by 2030. The important driving forces of growth are urbanization 2.0, continued economic opening to maintain the international competitiveness of China's supply chain, and continuous reform to attract foreign capital inflows.</p><p>Although the aging population will naturally increase the consumption rate, Chinese policymakers are also working hard to promote the internal economic circulation strategy to unlock China's consumption potential, mainly with the aim of coping with the challenges brought by a multi-polar post-COVID-19 era to China's exports. challenge.</p><p><b>On the one hand, the main means to promote this strategy is digitalization, so as to increase the penetration rate of e-commerce in both physical and service aspects and support consumption anytime and anywhere; On the other hand, through reform, the bottleneck factors affecting consumption, such as logistics, import taxes, and household registration, should be eliminated.</b></p><p>Therefore, we expect that the size of China's consumer market will double in the next decade, reaching 12.7 trillion USD, which is 30% higher than our 2017 forecast of 9.7 trillion USD.</p><p><b>This means that in the next decade, China's consumer market will maintain an annualized growth rate of 7.9%, making it one of the fastest growing countries in the world.</b></p><p>China's commodity consumer market has now surpassed that of the United States as its largest market in the world. If service consumption is included, the current consumer market in the United States is still significantly larger than that in China. But if our prediction comes true, even if service consumption is included, China will become the largest consumer market in the world in ten years.</p><p>An important feature of the changes in China's consumer market in the next decade is that service consumption exceeds physical consumption.</p><p>We now expect the proportion of service consumption to increase from the current 45% to 52%, with an annualized growth rate of 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of physical consumption in the same period.</p><p><b>This is different from western countries.</b>In western countries, when the average household income reaches $8,000 to $10,000, the increase in the proportion of service consumption basically stagnates. However, in China, we have observed a steady upward trend. On the one hand, the main reason is China's unique demographic structure. China's one-child policy, which has lasted for many years, has greatly increased the burden of the prime population to look after their elderly parents, thus bringing more demand for service consumption. On the other hand, based on the high degree of digitalization of mobile Internet, the convenience and speed of obtaining services are greatly enhanced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9be3c9e1ba80d995089f26b991fee7\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which tracks are worth investing in?</b></p><p>Investment framework we use: As China's consumer market growth shifts from physical-driven to service-driven, and the focus shifts from young people's consumption to family needs and retirement plans, we expect corresponding changes in all walks of life. In order to better analyze these changes, we divide many industries into four major categories based on their product lines and the driving forces of industry changes:</p><p><b>➤ Expansion</b>(Service-related industries mainly fall into this category)</p><p>In the next few years, it will face structured growth, such as: property management, medical services, elderly care services, medical insurance, education, domestic tourism and inbound tourism, tourism shopping, especially duty-free shops, family convenience services and local life services.</p><p><b>➤ Evolve</b>(mainly driven by new business models)</p><p>The next few years will face structural changes. Divided into two categories again. One is the evolutionary business model, such as: integration platform, supply chain management and sales channel management services, the implementation of C2M (Consumer2Manufacturer, that is, mass customization service) business model, and a wider range of AI, AR and VR applications.</p><p><b>➤ newly-developing</b>(an industry driven by a combination of technology and services)</p><p>Industries that are still limited in scale in 2020, but will have significant commercial influence before 2030. For example: emotional partners, rehabilitation medical services, services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>(business and consumer categories), dating services, and consumers who pay more attention to the company's Social responsibility (ESG, Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance, that is, Environmental protection, Social responsibility, and Corporate Governance).</p><p><b>➤ Pre-growth</b>(Those mature industries that have been subverted by demographic changes and technology)</p><p>For example: low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, traditional cars, and traditional home appliances.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18be9f38bf23ac7c702e3420cd217e67\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above classification of many industries based on the outlook for the next decade has laid the foundation for our top-down stock selection methodology.</p><p>Below we further refine this classification system and analyze the companies in each category through four element dimensions to form the framework for our research on individual stocks.<b>These four elements are: brand, channel, technology and service. With this framework, we can conduct research on the competitiveness of a company within the industry.</b></p><p><b>Investment conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect institutionalized services (education, integrated platforms, healthcare, elderly care services, medical insurance, supply chain management), smart life (digital property management, smart homes, and electric vehicles), life experience enhancement services/products (emotional companions) Categories such as pets, toys, rehabilitation medical services, service robots, and social platforms) will have steady and rapid growth.</p><p>But offline platforms, such as traditional cars and home appliances, will face the fate of being subverted. We also expect some fast-growing industries to face a slowdown in growth, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, and traditional household goods.</p><p><b>Five Drivers and Possible Risk Points</b></p><p>Five major driving factors for the growth and model evolution of China's consumer market in the next decade:</p><p><b>(1) Income-The process of becoming a high-income country is usually accompanied by the steady growth of service consumption.</b></p><p>According to our calculations, per capita disposable income will double from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030. From the international experience, when the per capita disposable income reaches 8,000-10,000 USD, the share of service consumption will grow steadily. In the next ten years, the average annual compound growth rate of service consumption in China is expected to reach 9.2%, exceeding 6.7% of commodity consumption.</p><p><b>This trend may be related to the following two factors:</b></p><p>1. Before the full opening of the second child, China's family planning policy led to the aging of the population and increased the nursing burden of the elderly. Now, this phenomenon is likely to be translated into more service consumption demand.</p><p>2. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has further deepened the public's awareness of technologies such as big data. This year may become an inflection point for the large-scale use of technologies. With the widespread application of basic technologies, the service threshold will continue to decrease.</p><p><b>(2) Population characteristics-the most important generational transition occurs within 2-3 years</b></p><p>Changes in China's population policy in the past few decades have led to uneven distribution of the population among all age groups; The rapid changes of China's economy in the past few decades have also led to the distribution of income levels among all age groups being different from that of ordinary economies.</p><p>According to our research, by 2030, the two age groups with the highest concentration of population distribution will be 35 to 44 years old and over 55 years old.</p><p>From the perspective of income level, these two age groups will also happen to be the two age groups with the highest disposable income. From the perspective of consumption behavior, the main consumption expenditure of people aged 35 to 44 is concentrated in household needs, while those over 55 are mainly aging and retired people.</p><p>Based on this analysis, we conclude that China's consumer market will transition from young people as the main force in 2020 to family needs and retirement plans as the main force in 2030.</p><p><b>(3) Technology-China's unique consumption growth path</b></p><p>Digitalization can also strongly support the conclusion that China will become a consumption-driven economy from another angle.</p><p>The extremely high penetration rate of digitalization in China has greatly improved the operating efficiency of toC companies and the interaction efficiency between consumers and sales channels.</p><p>Digitalization is also in line with the Chinese government's urbanization strategy aiming at super smart cities. This strategy hopes to realize faster, safer, more environmentally friendly and more livable urban communities with the help of digital technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence.</p><p><b>Specifically, we see two different trends in promoting consumption:</b></p><p><b>1. Digitalization of traditional economy:</b>This will improve operational efficiency as a whole and enhance the spending power of families.</p><p><b>2. New lifestyles in super smart cities:</b>The widespread application of next-generation technologies can support consumption anytime, anywhere. These technologies include: super APP, smart home based on the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and big data analytics.</p><p><b>(4) Policy-government support to release consumption potential</b></p><p>China's 14 five-year plans will focus on developing sustainable growth driven by domestic demand to cope with the multi-polar post-COVID-19 world, and are also working hard to promote the internal economic circulation strategy to unlock China's consumption potential.</p><p>When Japan's population began to age in 1990, the urbanization rate had reached 77%, and the household savings rate was at a relatively low level of 17%.</p><p>However, China's current urbanization rate is only 61%, and the household savings rate is at a high level of 35%. It seems that the consumption potential that can be tapped is still very huge.</p><p>Therefore, we expect to see various measures on both the supply side and the demand side in the next few years to eliminate consumption bottlenecks. Supply-side measures include upgrading new infrastructure, upgrading high-speed rail network, and facilitating consumption return. Measures on the demand side include increasing the coverage of social welfare, reducing income inequality and promoting vocational training.</p><p><b>(5) Culture-influenced by consumer values</b></p><p>Cultural differences among different countries may be an important reason for different consumption behaviors. What to buy, where to buy, and even how to buy it, Chinese consumers, consumers in western countries, and even consumers in other Asian countries may not understand the behavior.</p><p>Although globalization has brought many western elements to the lifestyle of contemporary China, we can still see that Chinese consumers are rooted in China's unique local culture.</p><p>1. Pay great attention to family ties and are willing to provide considerable financial support to family members.</p><p>2. When spending, you often have long-term goals.</p><p>3. There are significant differences in lifestyles among different age groups (such as the use of online platforms and travel needs)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2443caaf2ad039bb2cb70d7b5b8ba79f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Possible risk points:</b></p><p><b>(1) Anti-monopoly measures for integrated technology platforms:</b>The rapid penetration and growth of service-related consumption is highly dependent on the integrated Internet technology platform. The anti-monopoly policy issued by the government aims to prevent large technology companies from monopolizing the market and promote healthy market competition, but too aggressive policies may also delay the growth of service-related consumption.</p><p><b>(2) Tightening of consumer credit:</b>Policymakers have recently upgraded the supervision of Internet small loans and consumer credit platforms, but we think the impact on consumption should be small, because the balance sheet of Chinese households as a whole still looks healthy. However, if the policy further tightens consumer credit and even affects banking channels, it may have a negative impact on the growth of consumption.</p><p><b>(3) Relatively slow advancement of social security reform:</b>We believe that more universal and even social security coverage, especially in those key metropolitan areas, will effectively reduce the money people save to cope with the uncertainty of the future, thus promoting consumption. Therefore, if the advancement of reforms in these areas is slower than expected, it will affect the release of consumption potential.</p><p><b>(4) Privacy concerns for big data:</b>A big advantage China has is that it faces low resistance in consumer data collection in the process of building smart cities. If the public pays more attention to data privacy, or the international data supervision and coordination mechanism is facing an upgrade, it will lead to restrictions on the application of many new technologies based on big data analysis in the consumer field. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the widespread application of personal positioning technology and health codes has improved the public's acceptance of big data applications to a certain extent, thus reducing the risk in this regard.</p><p><b>(5) Social problems caused unintentionally:</b>The widespread use of automation and artificial intelligence may lead to worse unemployment problems than expected, especially in construction and low value-added manufacturing. Of course, we believe that vocational training and fast-growing services can solve some problems, but if the application of high technology is too fast, social friction caused by unemployment still risks inhibiting consumption growth.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0\">Alpha</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68da0043a3f7932eb6870829ddb8962d","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198913754","content_text":"来源｜MorganStanley\n翻译｜狮刀\n北京正在将其监管优先顺序转向在增长、可持续性、改善社会不均衡、维护各项安全之间求得平衡。这将会让经济利益的划分更多转向劳动者，降低企业盈利。我们认为这将带来长久和深远的市场影响。\n01\n新目标带来的监管底层逻辑的重置\n我们正站在中国经济和资本市场一个重要的转折点上，在经过数十年消除绝对贫困的努力后，北京正在将其监管优先级进行调整，更加关心可持续性、社会公平、数据安全，和自主可控。中国对于金融科技、大科技巨头、课后教育、数字货币，以及碳排放的限制升级正是这次逻辑重置的体现。\n经济方面的影响：在新的逻辑范式下，中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。我们看到和社会不平衡，经济可持续性，以及数据和网络安全相关的行业政策风险可能上行，而高端制造、科技自主可控、以及清洁能源有政策利好的支撑。我们仍然严密监控可能的“过度监管”风险。同时也关注可能的反转信号，包括例如，在港科技企业IPO、平台型企业雇员福利问题解决的清晰信号、或者有分量的政策制定者（top policymaker）的讲话。\n投资方面的影响：我们预计这次重置对于中国权益市场的估值和ERP会带来长久和深远的影响，但主要因为其影响在互联网板块，这是中国指数的重要权重，在MSCI China占比大约在40%到50%。这一板块未来收入和利润率的不确定性仍较大。\n挑战和机会：重数据型科技和平台企业，以及房地产企业仍然处于政策压制中。“新经济”板块会继续享受政策支持。\n从增长优先到兼顾公平：长达数十年的消除绝对贫困的努力之后新的目标是社会平等、数据安全，以及自主可控。\n\n\n四个政策关注的主要领域：社会风险、国家风险、金融风险、环境风险\n\n中国历史上每一次监管都带来某个行业底层逻辑的颠覆：采掘、乳制品、酒、跨境投资、游戏、医药、以及这次的互联网：\n\n过去历次监管带来的行业震荡：\n\n可能需要观察的风险点包括：过度监管带来的市场震荡、政策协调不足、政策沟通不足，以及最终可能对生产力的拖累：\n\n可以观察的事件解决路标：\n\n对中国权益指数的影响主要在MSCI China（互联网占比47%）：\n\n02\n怎样理解中国的逻辑重置\n新纪元新目标：我们相信近期的监管收紧反应了中国底层逻辑的改变，并不只是针对互联网巨头。在过去十年中北京的核心目标是保持双位数的收入增速，并消除绝对贫困，给予经济增速以最高权重。可是同时也带来了巨大的社会不均衡，这促使本届政府转向”共同富裕“（”getting rich together---common prosperity“）作为新的发展目标，并将包括社会平衡、供应链可控、数据安全等引入了新的政府KPI。\n过去9个月的政策制定反映了这一目标。 简单来说，我们认为中国正在平衡上升中的企业利润，和下降中的劳动者补偿，让劳动者更多分享到经济体发展的收益，这可能带来某些板块系统性的估值下降。我们认为政策制定者必须面临一个严峻的平衡挑战：如果中国仍希望能成为强大的经济体，就必须保证私营企业部分的活力，来促进创新，以及帮助人民币国际化和资本流动。尽管新的监管对社会责任和数据使用带来限制，但我们仍相信不会对其他权益板块有过大的影响。\n但这并不代表不会有权益市场的震荡：\n\n\n这次监管的很多内容实际都是老内容，为什么在过去9个月中突然加速？我们曾见过这一幕不知道多少次：之前06-08年的采掘行业，08-10年的乳制品行业，13-14年的高端白酒餐饮行业，16-17年的对外投资，18年的游戏，18-19年的药品，大多都存在了1-2年。\n如何在调仓上应对：仍需要暂时回避政策利空的行业板块（民生、安全相关的标的）。更多关注：清洁能源、数据和网络安全、高端制造、半导体供应链可控、创新生物药等新经济板块。\n\n03\n过去的几次政策影响经验\n2012-2016年：反腐败\n\n\n\n\n2015-2018年供给侧改革：\n\n\n\n\n\n\n摩根士丹利发布了一份名为《消费2030：“服务”至上》的报告，报告称，到2030年，中国的消费格局将发生巨大变革。这场变革带来的结果是，服务为GDP创造的价值将超过商品。\n根据摩根士丹利预计，到2030年，中国家庭人均收入将翻一番，而购买力将由35-44岁和55岁以上年龄段（1960年代出生的婴儿潮一代及其子女）主导，此外，到了2030年，消费重点将从现在的“年轻消费者”转向为“家庭需求和退休消费”。\n以“情感健康”和“自我实现”为目标的消费将日益突出，消费者将越来越依赖一个“全自动化”的社会。摩根士丹利认为，中国消费者的消费理念将引领全球。\n那么这场变革的主要驱动力是什么？摩根士丹利认为有五个因素：收入、人口特性、技术、政策和文化，同时，报告也指出了消费发展过程中可能存在的风险点。\n\n以下为报告的部分摘要：\n中国将超越美国成为全球第一大消费国\n在这份报告中，基于家庭收入和政策动向方面的变化，我们更新了我们对中国消费市场的预测。我们认为到2030年中国的家庭平均收入将从6000美元上升到12000美元，增长的重要驱动力为城镇化2.0、经济持续开放以保持中国供应链的国际竞争力、以及持续的改革以吸引外资流入。\n尽管人口老龄化会自然地提升消费率，中国的政策制定者也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力，主要目的是应对一个多极化的后新冠时代给中国出口带来的挑战。\n推进这个战略的主要手段一方面为数字化，以提升电子商务在实物类和服务类两方面的渗透率，支持随时随地的消费；另一方面是通过改革消除影响消费的瓶颈因素，比如物流、进口税，以及户口等方面。\n因此我们预期中国的消费市场规模将在下一个十年中翻倍，达到12.7万亿美元，这比我们2017年做的预测9.7万亿美元高出30%。\n这意味着下一个十年里中国的消费市场规模将保持年化7.9%的增长率，成为全球消费市场规模增长最快的国家之一。\n中国的商品类消费市场规模目前已经超过美国为其全球第一大市场。如果把服务类消费统计在内，当前美国消费市场规模仍显著大于中国。但是如果我们的预测成为现实，即使是把服务类消费统计在内，十年后中国也将成为世界上最大的消费市场。\n下一个十年里中国消费市场变化的一个重要特征是服务类消费超过实物类消费。\n我们现在预期服务类消费的占比将从当前的45%提升至52%，年化增长率为9.2%，超过同期实物类消费6.7%的增长率。\n这一点跟西方国家有所不同。在西方国家，当家庭平均收入达到8000到10000美元时，服务类消费占比的提升就基本上停滞了，但是在中国我们观察到稳定的提升趋势，主要原因一方面是中国独特的人口结构，中国持续多年的一胎化政策极大地加重了壮年人口照看年老父母的负担，因此带来了更多的服务消费的需求。另一方面是基于移动互联网的高度数字化，使获得服务的便利性和快捷性大大增强。\n\n哪些赛道值得投？\n我们使用的投资框架：随着中国的消费市场增长从实物驱动转向服务驱动，而且关注点从年轻人的消费转向家庭需求和退休计划，我们预期各行各业也会有相应的变化。为了更好地分析这些变化，我们把诸多的行业基于他们的产品线和行业变化的驱动力，分为四个大的类别：\n➤ 扩张（服务相关的行业主要落在这个大类）\n在未来几年里将面临结构化的增长，比如：物业管理，医疗服务，养老服务，医疗保险，教育，国内旅游和入境游，旅游购物尤其是免税店，家庭便利服务和本地生活服务。\n➤ 进化（主要由新商业模式驱动）\n未来几年将面临结构性的变化。又分两类。一是进化的商业模式，比如:集成平台，供应链管理和销售渠道管理服务，C2M（Consumer2Manufacturer，即大规模定制化服务）商业模式的落地，更广泛的AI，AR和VR应用。\n➤ 新兴（由技术和服务相结合驱动的行业）\n在2020年还规模有限，但是2030年之前将具备重大商业影响力的行业。比如：情感伴侣，康复医疗服务，服务机器人（商业和消费类）,婚恋服务，对公司的社会责任感（ESG，Environmental，Social，and Corporate Governance，即环保，社会责任，和公司治理）更加注重的消费者。\n➤ 前增长（那些被人口结构变化和技术颠覆的成熟行业）\n比如：低端酒精饮料，基础必需品，传统汽车，传统家电。\n\n以上基于对下一个十年的展望作出的对诸多行业的分类为我们的自上而下的选股方法论打下了基础。\n下面我们把这个分类体系进一步细化，把每个大类里的公司通过四个要素维度来分析，以构成我们针对个股进行研究的框架。这四要素分别是：品牌，渠道，技术和服务。有了这个框架，我们就可以对一家公司在行业内的竞争力进行研究。\n投资结论：\n我们预期机构化的服务（教育，集成平台，医疗保健，养老服务，医疗保险，供应链管理），智慧生活（数字化物业管理，智能家居，和电动汽车），生活体验增强服务/产品（情感伴侣类，比如宠物，玩具，康复医疗服务，服务机器人，和社交平台）会有稳定和快速的增长。\n但是离线的平台比如传统的汽车和家电，将面临被颠覆的命运。我们还预计当前在快速增长的一些行业会面临增速放缓，比如中低端酒精饮料，基本必需品，和传统家庭用品。\n 五大驱动因素和可能的风险点\n下一个十年内中国消费市场规模增长和模式演化的五大驱动因素：\n（1） 收入-- 变成高收入国家的过程中通常伴随着服务类消费的稳定增长。\n根据我们的计算，到2030年，人均可支配收入将从现在的6000美元翻倍到12000美元。从国际经验来看，当人均可支配收入达到8000-10000美元时，服务消费的份额会稳定增长，未来十年中，中国服务消费的年均复合增长率有望达到9.2%，超过商品消费的6.7%。\n该趋势可能与以下两个因素有关：\n1，二胎全面开放之前，中国的计划生育政策导致人口老龄化加剧，增加了高龄人口的护理负担，如今，这一现象很可能会转化成为更多的服务消费需求。\n2，2020年的新冠疫情促使公众对大数据等技术的认知度进一步加深，这一年可能成为技术大规模使用的拐点，而伴随着基础技术的广泛应用，服务的门槛也会不断降低。\n（2）人口特性–最重要的世代转换发生在2-3年内\n过去几十年中国人口政策的变化导致人口在各个年龄层的分布不均匀；过去几十年中国经济的快速变迁也导致收入水平在各个年龄层之间的分布跟普通的经济体不太一样。\n根据我们的研究，到2030年，人口分布最集中的两个年龄段分别是35到44岁和55岁以上。\n而从收入水平的角度看，届时这两个年龄层也恰好是可支配收入最高的两个年龄段。从消费行为角度看，35到44岁人群的主要消费支出集中在家庭需要，而55岁以上则主要是老龄化和退休人群。\n基于这样的分析，我们得出结论，认为中国消费市场将从2020年的以年轻人为主力过渡到2030年的以家庭需求和退休计划为主力的形态。\n（3）技术-中国独特的消费增长路径\n数字化也能从另一个角度有力地支持中国将变成消费驱动的经济体这样一个结论。\n数字化在中国极高的渗透率对toC公司的经营效率以及消费者和销售渠道之间的互动效率都有很大的提高。\n数字化也非常符合中国政府以超级智慧城市为目标的城镇化战略。这个战略希望用借助于5G,云计算，大数据，物联网和人工智能这样一些数字技术实现更快、更安全、更环保、更宜居的城市社区。\n具体地说，我们看到两种不同的促进消费的趋势：\n1.传统经济的数字化：这会整体上提升运营效率并增强家庭的消费能力。\n2.超级智慧城市中新的生活方式：下一代技术的广泛应用可以支持随时随地的消费。这些技术包括：超级APP，基于物联网的智能家居，人工智能和大数据分析。\n（4）政策--政府支持以释放消费潜力\n中国的14个五年计划将专注于发展国内需求驱动的可持续的增长，以应对多极化的后新冠世界，也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力。\n日本在1990年人口开始老龄化的时候，城镇化率已经达到77%，家庭储蓄率处在17%这样一个相对低的水平。\n而中国目前的城镇化率只有61%，家庭储蓄率处在35%的较高水准，看起来可挖掘的消费潜力还非常巨大。\n所以我们预计在未来数年中会看到供给端和需求端都会有各种措施来消除消费瓶颈。供应端的措施包括提升新基建、升级高铁网络、为消费回岸提供便利。需求端的措施则包括提高社会福利的覆盖率、降低收入不平等、以及促进职业培训。\n（5）文化-来自于消费者价值观的影响\n不同国家之间的文化差异可能是导致不同的消费行为的重要原因。买什么，在哪里买，甚至怎么买，中国的消费者和西方国家的消费者，甚至亚洲其他国家的消费者的行为都可能不懂。\n虽然全球化为当代中国的生活方式带来了很多西方元素，但是我们仍然可以看到中国的消费者根植于中国独特的本地文化。\n1.非常看重家庭纽带，愿意为家庭成员提供相当大的金钱上的支持。\n2.消费的时候经常会有长远的目标。\n3.不同年龄层之间生活方式有显著的差异（比如在线平台的使用和外出旅行需求）\n\n可能的风险点：\n（1）针对集成技术平台的反垄断措施：服务相关消费的快速渗透和增长高度依赖于集成化的互联网技术平台。政府发布的反垄断政策旨在防止大型科技公司对市场的垄断，促进健康的市场竞争，但是过于激进的政策也有可能延宕服务相关消费的增长。\n（2）消费信贷的收紧：政策制定者最近升级了对互联网小贷和消费信贷平台的监管，但是我们认为对消费的影响应该不大，因为中国家庭资产负债表整体看上去还很健康。但是如果政策对消费信贷进一步收紧，甚至影响到银行渠道的话，那可能会对消费的增长形成负面影响。\n（3）相对迟缓的社会保障改革推进：我们相信更普遍和均匀的社保覆盖，尤其是在那些关键的都市圈里，会有效地降低人们为应对未来的不确定性而存起来的钱，从而促进消费。因此，在这些方面的改革的推进如果比预期要慢，则会影响消费潜力的释放。\n（4）针对大数据的隐私顾虑：中国拥有的一大优势是在建设智慧城市过程中在消费者数据收集方面面临较低的阻力。如果大众对数据隐私更加关注，或者国际间数据监管协调机制面临升级，则会导致对基于大数据分析的诸多新技术在消费领域应用的限制。不过，在新冠疫情期间个人定位技术和健康码的广泛应用在一定程度上提高了大众对大数据应用的的接受度，因此降低了这方面的风险。\n（5）无意中引发的社会问题：自动化和人工智能的广泛应用可能会导致比预想的要严重的失业问题，尤其是在建筑和低附加值制造领域。当然我们相信职业培训和快速增长的服务可以解决一部分问题，但是如果高科技的应用过快，失业导致的社会摩擦仍然有抑制消费增长的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":532038849779152,"gmtCreate":1770913193257,"gmtModify":1770913196704,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">$恒生科技ETF(03032)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">$恒生科技ETF(03032)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$ </a> ","text":"$恒生科技ETF(03032)$ $阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $美团-W(03690)$ $快手-W(01024)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946f51e60d7e83f4f6a11ad94f56446b","width":"2730","height":"1535"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/532038849779152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628612189,"gmtCreate":1673157379542,"gmtModify":1676538793525,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/628612189","repostId":"1183808598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183808598","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673139017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183808598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-08 08:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Focus Analysis | Ants grow up, Ali retreats","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183808598","media":"36氪","summary":"在2023年1月之前，看似退隐江湖2年的马云都还是蚂蚁的实际控制人，但是历史在这一刻改写。1月7日，蚂蚁集团官网发布《关于持续完善公司治理的公告》。这份公告有3个重点，其中最引人注目的一个，就是蚂蚁集","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Before January 2023, Jack Ma, who seemed to have retired for two years, was still the actual controller of Ant, but history was rewritten at this moment.</p><p>On January 7, the official website of Ant Group issued the \"Announcement on Continuous Improvement of Corporate Governance.\" This announcement has three key points, the most striking of which is that the major shareholders and related beneficiaries of Ant Group intend to adjust the upper structure of Ant Group's shareholders. The core of the adjustment is the change in the voting rights of the major shareholders of Ant Group.</p><p>After the adjustment, the biggest concern is that Jack Ma, Alibaba's lifelong partner and founder, is no longer the actual controller of Ant Group. The ants grow bigger and bigger, and the founders and the old Ali entrepreneurial groups slowly move away.<b>Although Ali is still an important shareholder of Ant, it no longer has the absolute management rights of Ant. Ant and Ali are already two companies in any sense.</b></p><p>In fact, since the suspension of the IPO, Ant Group has been rectifying. During this period, various news continued to spread: on the business side, Alipay was disconnected from Huabei, Jiebei and other financial products; In terms of management structure, more independent directors have been introduced, the management no longer serves as Alibaba partners, and Ant Consumer Finance's capital increase plan has been approved... Everything points to compliance in line with regulatory trends, as well as transparency and transparency of corporate governance. and effectiveness.</p><p>Is Ant's efforts to move towards compliance and transparency step by step paving the way for IPO?</p><p><b>Jack Ma \"retired\"</b></p><p>The core of Ant's adjustment to the shareholder structure this time is the change in the voting rights of major shareholders: from the joint exercise of voting rights of shares by Jack Ma and his concerted parties, to 10 natural persons including Ant Group management, employee representatives and founder Jack Ma, independently exercise voting rights on shares.</p><p>Specifically: Jack Ma and his concerted parties, Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang, have signed an agreement to terminate the concerted action relationship at Hangzhou Yunbo level.</p><p><b>What exactly is \"concerted action relationship\"?</b></p><p>According to public information, before today, although Jack Ma, Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang held 34%, 22%, 22% and 22% of the shares of Hangzhou Yunbo Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. respectively, according to the company's current articles of association and the \"Concerted Action Agreement\", Jack Ma can actually control the voting results of Yunbo Investment shareholders' meeting and exercise matters related to the shareholders' rights of Ant Group, thereby indirectly controlling the voting rights of 53.46% of Ant Group's shares.</p><p>Senior legal professionals told 36Kr,<b>In essence, concerted action agreement is an agreement to control the rights of various shareholders, and \"concerted action parties\" are usually the proxy holders of shares/equity. Although the equity belongs to them, the control right is in the hands of others</b>。</p><p>In the case of Ant, Alibaba and Ant founder Jack Ma can rely on this agreement to get other share/equity holders to agree to any of their proposals. In short, Jack Ma himself has always been the actual controller of ants.</p><p>After this adjustment, the major shareholders of Ant Group independently exercise their voting rights and have no concerted action relationship. There is no longer any situation in which direct or indirect shareholders single or joint control of Ant Group.</p><p>At the same time, Hangzhou Junhan and Hangzhou Junao, the major shareholders of Ant Group, are controlled by the same general partner company (Hangzhou Yunbo) and split into two different general partner companies (Hangzhou Yunbo and Hangzhou Xingtao) respectively control. Jing Xiandong, Shao Xiaofeng, Ni Xingjun, Zhao Ying and Wu Minzhi will each hold 20% of the equity of Hangzhou Yunbo through equity transfer. The shareholders of the relevant general partner company were changed from Jack Ma and his persons acting in concert to a combination of Ant Group management, employee representatives and founder Jack Ma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57934cbae83ae34ca40e030424ae549\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The ownership structure of Ant Group before this adjustment (Source: Ant official website)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57934cbae83ae34ca40e030424ae549\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The ownership structure of Ant Group after this adjustment (Source: Ant official website)</p><p>Ant Group stated in the announcement that after the completion of this adjustment, there will no longer be any direct or indirect shareholders single or joint control of Ant Group: \"The voting rights of Ant Group's shares are more transparent and dispersed, which is a further improvement to the corporate governance structure. Optimization will promote the sustainable and steady development of Ant Group. This adjustment will not affect the daily operations of Ant Group and its subsidiaries.\"</p><p>In fact, Jack Ma lowered his voting rights in Ant Group, which is to further optimize the corporate governance structure. The founder was so generous that he gave up the actual control of the company, made the voting rights of the shares more transparent and decentralized, and made Ant's decision-making power truly \"transparent\". It is hard not to think that this is a strong boost to the IPO.</p><p><b>There will be more than half of the independent director seats, and the \"Ali flavor\" is weak</b></p><p>The announcement stated that since 2021, Ant Group has continued to improve its corporate governance level. At present, the eight directors on the board of directors include four independent directors, and there are six special committees under it. On this basis, it plans to continue to introduce the fifth independent director to achieve more than half of the independent director seats on the board of directors, while \"Aliwei\" has subtly retreated.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the introduction of independent directors has been the focus of ant's management structure adjustment. Independent director system is an important system in modern corporate governance, which is crucial to the transparency of board governance and the use of power.</p><p>On June 1, 2022, the official website of Ant Group updated the information of the board of directors team, and newly hired two women, Yang Xiaolei and Shi Meilun, as independent directors.</p><p>Among the two female independent directors, Shi Meilun attracts more attention. In Hong Kong, Shi Meilun became a top executive of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission as early as the 1990s, and was famous in the financial circles of both places as the \"Iron Lady\". In the mainland, she is the first deputy ministerial cadre hired from Hong Kong since the reform and opening up: the vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission.</p><p>Shi Meilun's latest position is the chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and he has changed from the regulatory position of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to the head of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. On the one hand, Shi Meilun has been linking the financial and industrial circles of Hong Kong and the mainland, adhering to the strict financial supervision, urging mainland companies to comply with regulations, integrate with the international capital market, go public in Hong Kong, and actively stabilize Hong Kong's status as a financial center. Shi Meilun has said many times that Hong Kong's financial market is a bridge between the mainland and the world. Her vision is highly consistent with the \"meaning\" of Ant's IPO.</p><p>Ant introduced more independent directors to make the board structure more transparent.</p><p>In June 2022, the structure of Ant Group's board of directors changed. In the past, the board of directors of Ant consisted of three executive directors: Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming, and Ni Xingjun, three non-executive directors: Cai Chongxin, Cheng Li, and Jiang Fang, and three independent directors: Hao Quan, Hu Zuliu, and Huang Yiping.</p><p>The new board of directors has two directors: Jing Xiandong and Ni Xingjun, two non-executive directors: Tsai Chongxin and Cheng Li, and four independent directors: Hao Quan, Huang Yiping, Shi Meilun and Yang Xiaolei.</p><p>In the new board of directors, Hu Xiaoming, a partner of Ali who has stepped down as CEO, has also stepped down as executive director, and Jiang Fang, one of the \"Eighteen Arhats\" of Ali's entrepreneurial veterans, has stepped down as non-executive director. Today, relevant management members of Ant Group no longer serve as partners of Alibaba, and their isolation from shareholder Alibaba Group has also been strengthened. \"Ali\" 's subtle retreat in the ant system was interpreted by ants as: further improving the transparency and effectiveness of corporate governance.</p><p>In the future, the number of independent directors of Ant will increase from the current 4 to 5, accounting for the majority of the board of directors, which is to amplify the balance and supervision role of independent directors, which is conducive to the board of directors' more independent performance of duties, and also points to the \"transparency\" of the company's decision-making.</p><p>In Ant's management, \"compliance\" has also been further emphasized. In July 2021, Ant announced a new 15-person management team. Compared with the previous 20-person team, CCO (Chief Compliance Officer) Li Chen and Vice President in charge of the Strategic Development Department of Ant Group Yin Ming (former Life Insurance executive), vice president in charge of the big security business group Zhao Wenbiao. The position of chief compliance officer (CCO) simply does not exist in the original team.</p><p>\"Transparency\" and \"compliance\" are important prerequisites for Ant to return to IPO. New ants need more people with \"compliance\" attributes and backgrounds to stand on the board of directors and management to show the outside world a new look of ants.</p><p>In the vicissitudes of life, financial technology, a concept that was once a hot concept in the capital market and entrepreneurship, has now faded. Looking at the whole world, the valuation, financing, and listing of financial technology companies have all become difficult problems.</p><p>In May 2022, a new round of financing for Swedish start-up Klarna Bank AB was cold, and its valuation shrank from US $46 billion a year ago to US $30 billion. U.S. Fintech Affirm Shares Plunge; Bolt, a Silicon Valley unicorn that focuses on payment, online investment advisory and other businesses, was laid off.</p><p>From policy support, endorsement and blessing of countless heavyweight shareholders, hot star companies, and multiple dividends endorsed by the powerful parent company Alibaba, to suspending IPOs overnight, to changing themselves step by step, Ant's fate seems extremely special, but extremely universal: the business world is always turbulent and fickle.</p><p>Ant actively reorganized the board of directors, introduced independent directors, promoted isolation from Alibaba, and even founder Jack Ma gave up actual control, which are all obvious signals: re-establishing the organizational structure can meet the requirements of applying for a financial holding company license? Requirements, does this mean that Ant is ready to restart the IPO?</p><p>The fate of Ant will be one of the most critical regulatory benchmarks in 2023 for the entire Internet industry.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Focus Analysis | Ants grow up, Ali retreats</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFocus Analysis | Ants grow up, Ali retreats\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-08 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Before January 2023, Jack Ma, who seemed to have retired for two years, was still the actual controller of Ant, but history was rewritten at this moment.</p><p>On January 7, the official website of Ant Group issued the \"Announcement on Continuous Improvement of Corporate Governance.\" This announcement has three key points, the most striking of which is that the major shareholders and related beneficiaries of Ant Group intend to adjust the upper structure of Ant Group's shareholders. The core of the adjustment is the change in the voting rights of the major shareholders of Ant Group.</p><p>After the adjustment, the biggest concern is that Jack Ma, Alibaba's lifelong partner and founder, is no longer the actual controller of Ant Group. The ants grow bigger and bigger, and the founders and the old Ali entrepreneurial groups slowly move away.<b>Although Ali is still an important shareholder of Ant, it no longer has the absolute management rights of Ant. Ant and Ali are already two companies in any sense.</b></p><p>In fact, since the suspension of the IPO, Ant Group has been rectifying. During this period, various news continued to spread: on the business side, Alipay was disconnected from Huabei, Jiebei and other financial products; In terms of management structure, more independent directors have been introduced, the management no longer serves as Alibaba partners, and Ant Consumer Finance's capital increase plan has been approved... Everything points to compliance in line with regulatory trends, as well as transparency and transparency of corporate governance. and effectiveness.</p><p>Is Ant's efforts to move towards compliance and transparency step by step paving the way for IPO?</p><p><b>Jack Ma \"retired\"</b></p><p>The core of Ant's adjustment to the shareholder structure this time is the change in the voting rights of major shareholders: from the joint exercise of voting rights of shares by Jack Ma and his concerted parties, to 10 natural persons including Ant Group management, employee representatives and founder Jack Ma, independently exercise voting rights on shares.</p><p>Specifically: Jack Ma and his concerted parties, Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang, have signed an agreement to terminate the concerted action relationship at Hangzhou Yunbo level.</p><p><b>What exactly is \"concerted action relationship\"?</b></p><p>According to public information, before today, although Jack Ma, Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming and Jiang Fang held 34%, 22%, 22% and 22% of the shares of Hangzhou Yunbo Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. respectively, according to the company's current articles of association and the \"Concerted Action Agreement\", Jack Ma can actually control the voting results of Yunbo Investment shareholders' meeting and exercise matters related to the shareholders' rights of Ant Group, thereby indirectly controlling the voting rights of 53.46% of Ant Group's shares.</p><p>Senior legal professionals told 36Kr,<b>In essence, concerted action agreement is an agreement to control the rights of various shareholders, and \"concerted action parties\" are usually the proxy holders of shares/equity. Although the equity belongs to them, the control right is in the hands of others</b>。</p><p>In the case of Ant, Alibaba and Ant founder Jack Ma can rely on this agreement to get other share/equity holders to agree to any of their proposals. In short, Jack Ma himself has always been the actual controller of ants.</p><p>After this adjustment, the major shareholders of Ant Group independently exercise their voting rights and have no concerted action relationship. There is no longer any situation in which direct or indirect shareholders single or joint control of Ant Group.</p><p>At the same time, Hangzhou Junhan and Hangzhou Junao, the major shareholders of Ant Group, are controlled by the same general partner company (Hangzhou Yunbo) and split into two different general partner companies (Hangzhou Yunbo and Hangzhou Xingtao) respectively control. Jing Xiandong, Shao Xiaofeng, Ni Xingjun, Zhao Ying and Wu Minzhi will each hold 20% of the equity of Hangzhou Yunbo through equity transfer. The shareholders of the relevant general partner company were changed from Jack Ma and his persons acting in concert to a combination of Ant Group management, employee representatives and founder Jack Ma.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57934cbae83ae34ca40e030424ae549\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The ownership structure of Ant Group before this adjustment (Source: Ant official website)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57934cbae83ae34ca40e030424ae549\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The ownership structure of Ant Group after this adjustment (Source: Ant official website)</p><p>Ant Group stated in the announcement that after the completion of this adjustment, there will no longer be any direct or indirect shareholders single or joint control of Ant Group: \"The voting rights of Ant Group's shares are more transparent and dispersed, which is a further improvement to the corporate governance structure. Optimization will promote the sustainable and steady development of Ant Group. This adjustment will not affect the daily operations of Ant Group and its subsidiaries.\"</p><p>In fact, Jack Ma lowered his voting rights in Ant Group, which is to further optimize the corporate governance structure. The founder was so generous that he gave up the actual control of the company, made the voting rights of the shares more transparent and decentralized, and made Ant's decision-making power truly \"transparent\". It is hard not to think that this is a strong boost to the IPO.</p><p><b>There will be more than half of the independent director seats, and the \"Ali flavor\" is weak</b></p><p>The announcement stated that since 2021, Ant Group has continued to improve its corporate governance level. At present, the eight directors on the board of directors include four independent directors, and there are six special committees under it. On this basis, it plans to continue to introduce the fifth independent director to achieve more than half of the independent director seats on the board of directors, while \"Aliwei\" has subtly retreated.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the introduction of independent directors has been the focus of ant's management structure adjustment. Independent director system is an important system in modern corporate governance, which is crucial to the transparency of board governance and the use of power.</p><p>On June 1, 2022, the official website of Ant Group updated the information of the board of directors team, and newly hired two women, Yang Xiaolei and Shi Meilun, as independent directors.</p><p>Among the two female independent directors, Shi Meilun attracts more attention. In Hong Kong, Shi Meilun became a top executive of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission as early as the 1990s, and was famous in the financial circles of both places as the \"Iron Lady\". In the mainland, she is the first deputy ministerial cadre hired from Hong Kong since the reform and opening up: the vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission.</p><p>Shi Meilun's latest position is the chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and he has changed from the regulatory position of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to the head of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. On the one hand, Shi Meilun has been linking the financial and industrial circles of Hong Kong and the mainland, adhering to the strict financial supervision, urging mainland companies to comply with regulations, integrate with the international capital market, go public in Hong Kong, and actively stabilize Hong Kong's status as a financial center. Shi Meilun has said many times that Hong Kong's financial market is a bridge between the mainland and the world. Her vision is highly consistent with the \"meaning\" of Ant's IPO.</p><p>Ant introduced more independent directors to make the board structure more transparent.</p><p>In June 2022, the structure of Ant Group's board of directors changed. In the past, the board of directors of Ant consisted of three executive directors: Jing Xiandong, Hu Xiaoming, and Ni Xingjun, three non-executive directors: Cai Chongxin, Cheng Li, and Jiang Fang, and three independent directors: Hao Quan, Hu Zuliu, and Huang Yiping.</p><p>The new board of directors has two directors: Jing Xiandong and Ni Xingjun, two non-executive directors: Tsai Chongxin and Cheng Li, and four independent directors: Hao Quan, Huang Yiping, Shi Meilun and Yang Xiaolei.</p><p>In the new board of directors, Hu Xiaoming, a partner of Ali who has stepped down as CEO, has also stepped down as executive director, and Jiang Fang, one of the \"Eighteen Arhats\" of Ali's entrepreneurial veterans, has stepped down as non-executive director. Today, relevant management members of Ant Group no longer serve as partners of Alibaba, and their isolation from shareholder Alibaba Group has also been strengthened. \"Ali\" 's subtle retreat in the ant system was interpreted by ants as: further improving the transparency and effectiveness of corporate governance.</p><p>In the future, the number of independent directors of Ant will increase from the current 4 to 5, accounting for the majority of the board of directors, which is to amplify the balance and supervision role of independent directors, which is conducive to the board of directors' more independent performance of duties, and also points to the \"transparency\" of the company's decision-making.</p><p>In Ant's management, \"compliance\" has also been further emphasized. In July 2021, Ant announced a new 15-person management team. Compared with the previous 20-person team, CCO (Chief Compliance Officer) Li Chen and Vice President in charge of the Strategic Development Department of Ant Group Yin Ming (former Life Insurance executive), vice president in charge of the big security business group Zhao Wenbiao. The position of chief compliance officer (CCO) simply does not exist in the original team.</p><p>\"Transparency\" and \"compliance\" are important prerequisites for Ant to return to IPO. New ants need more people with \"compliance\" attributes and backgrounds to stand on the board of directors and management to show the outside world a new look of ants.</p><p>In the vicissitudes of life, financial technology, a concept that was once a hot concept in the capital market and entrepreneurship, has now faded. Looking at the whole world, the valuation, financing, and listing of financial technology companies have all become difficult problems.</p><p>In May 2022, a new round of financing for Swedish start-up Klarna Bank AB was cold, and its valuation shrank from US $46 billion a year ago to US $30 billion. U.S. Fintech Affirm Shares Plunge; Bolt, a Silicon Valley unicorn that focuses on payment, online investment advisory and other businesses, was laid off.</p><p>From policy support, endorsement and blessing of countless heavyweight shareholders, hot star companies, and multiple dividends endorsed by the powerful parent company Alibaba, to suspending IPOs overnight, to changing themselves step by step, Ant's fate seems extremely special, but extremely universal: the business world is always turbulent and fickle.</p><p>Ant actively reorganized the board of directors, introduced independent directors, promoted isolation from Alibaba, and even founder Jack Ma gave up actual control, which are all obvious signals: re-establishing the organizational structure can meet the requirements of applying for a financial holding company license? Requirements, does this mean that Ant is ready to restart the IPO?</p><p>The fate of Ant will be one of the most critical regulatory benchmarks in 2023 for the entire Internet industry.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/2077901427986437\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed47e720e2c8ac868f5b3114fdde0f64","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/2077901427986437","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183808598","content_text":"在2023年1月之前，看似退隐江湖2年的马云都还是蚂蚁的实际控制人，但是历史在这一刻改写。1月7日，蚂蚁集团官网发布《关于持续完善公司治理的公告》。这份公告有3个重点，其中最引人注目的一个，就是蚂蚁集团主要股东及相关受益人拟对蚂蚁集团股东上层结构进行调整，调整的核心是蚂蚁集团主要股东投票权的变化。调整之后最重磅的关注点，莫过于阿里终身合伙人、创始人马云，不再是蚂蚁集团的实际控制人。蚂蚁越长越大，创始人和老阿里创业天团们的身影慢慢走远。阿里虽然依然是蚂蚁的重要股东，却不再拥有蚂蚁的绝对管理权，蚂蚁和阿里，在任何意义上都已经是两家公司。实际上，中止IPO以来，蚂蚁集团一直在整改，期间不断传出的各种消息：业务侧，断开支付宝与花呗、借呗与其他金融产品的连接；管理结构上，引入更多独立董事，管理层不再担任阿里巴巴合伙人，蚂蚁消金增资方案获批……桩桩件件都指向了符合监管风向的合规性，以及公司治理的透明度和有效性。蚂蚁这样努力得一步一步走向合规、透明，是否是为IPO铺路？马云“退隐”蚂蚁本次对股东结构调整的核心，是主要股东投票权的变化：从马云及其一致行动人共同行使股份表决权，到包括蚂蚁集团管理层、员工代表和创始人马云在内的10名自然人，分别独立行使股份表决权。具体而言：马云及其一致行动人井贤栋、胡晓明及蒋芳已签署协议，终止在杭州云铂层面的一致行动关系。“一致行动关系”究竟是什么？公开资料显示，在今天之前，虽然马云、井贤栋、胡晓明及蒋芳分别持有杭州云铂投资咨询有限公司34%、22%、22%及22%的股权，但根据该公司的现行章程及《一致行动协议》，马云能够实际支配云铂投资股东会、行使蚂蚁集团股东权利相关事项的表决结果，进而间接控制蚂蚁集团53.46%股份的表决权。资深法律界人士告诉36氪，本质上，一致行动协议就是协议控制各项股东权利，而“一致行动人”通常都是股份/股权的代持人，股权虽然属于他们，但是控制权在他人手里。放在蚂蚁的案例中，阿里和蚂蚁创始人马云，可以凭借这个协议，让其他股份/股权代持人同意自己的任何提议。简言之，一直以来，马云本人就是蚂蚁的实际控制人。而此次调整之后，蚂蚁集团各主要股东彼此独立行使股份表决权且无一致行动关系，不再存在任何直接或间接股东单一或共同控制蚂蚁集团的情形。同时，蚂蚁集团的主要股东杭州君瀚和杭州君澳由受同一家普通合伙人企业（杭州云铂）控制，分拆为受两家不同普通合伙人企业（杭州云铂和杭州星滔）分别控制。井贤栋、邵晓锋、倪行军、赵颖、吴敏芝将通过股权转让分别持有杭州云铂20%的股权。相关普通合伙人公司股东由马云及其一致行动人，变更为蚂蚁集团管理层、员工代表和创始人马云的组合。本次调整前蚂蚁集团股权结构（图片来源：蚂蚁官网）本次调整后蚂蚁集团股权结构（图片来源：蚂蚁官网）蚂蚁集团在公告中称，在此次调整完成后，不再存在任何直接或间接股东单一或共同控制蚂蚁集团的情形：“蚂蚁集团的股份表决权更加透明且分散，这是对公司治理结构的进一步优化，将对蚂蚁集团的持续稳健发展起到促进作用。本次调整不会对蚂蚁集团及下属公司的日常经营造成影响。”实际上，马云降低了他在蚂蚁集团的投票权，就是在推动公司治理结构进一步优化。而创始人如此大度，放弃了公司实际控制权，让股份的表决权更加透明、分散，让蚂蚁的决策权真正“透明”，很难不让人认为，这是对IPO的大力助推。独立董事席位将过半，“阿里味”弱了这次的公告称，自2021年以来，蚂蚁集团持续提升公司治理水平，目前董事会8名董事中包含四名独立董事，下设六个专门委员会。在此基础上，其计划继续引入第5名独立董事，实现董事会中独立董事席位过半数，而“阿里味”则微妙后退。今年以来，引入独立董事，就是蚂蚁管理结构调整的重点。独立董事制度，就是现代公司治理中的重要制度，对董事会治理的透明度、权力的使用，至关重要。2022年，6月1日，蚂蚁集团官网更新董事会团队信息，新聘杨小蕾、史美伦两名女性担任独立董事。两位女性独立董事中，史美伦更引人关注。于香港，史美伦早在上世纪90年代就跻身香港证监会高层，以“铁娘子”之名闻名两地金融界。于内地，她是改革开放以来从香港聘请的第一位副部级干部：中国证监会副主席。史美伦最新的职务是港交所主席，由任职香港证监会的监管立场，转变为港交所的负责人。令一方面，史美伦一直在链接香港和内地金融、实业界，坚持金融监管的严厉，力促内地公司合规、和国际资本市场接轨，赴港上市，也积极稳固香港金融中心的地位。史美伦曾多次说过：香港金融市场是连接内地与世界的桥梁。她的愿景和蚂蚁IPO的“意义”高度一致。蚂蚁引入更多的独立董事，是为了让董事会结构更加透明。2022年6月，蚂蚁集团董事会架构发生变化。过去蚂蚁董事会组成为：三位执行董事：井贤栋、胡晓明、倪行军，三位非执行董事：蔡崇信、程立、蒋芳，三位独立董事：郝荃、胡祖六、黄益平。新董事会改为两位董事：井贤栋、倪行军，两位非执行董事：蔡崇信、程立，四位独立董事：郝荃、黄益平、史美伦、杨小蕾。新董事会中，已卸任CEO的阿里合伙人胡晓明也卸任了执行董事，阿里创业元老“十八罗汉”之一的蒋芳卸任了非执行董事。如今，蚂蚁集团相关管理层成员不再担任阿里巴巴合伙人，与股东阿里巴巴集团的隔离也被强化。“阿里”在蚂蚁体系中微妙的后退，被蚂蚁解释为：进一步提升公司治理的透明度和有效性。未来，蚂蚁独立董事从现在的4人上升到5人，在董事会中占多数，是在放大独立董事平衡和监督的作用，有利于董事会更独立地履职，也指向公司决策的“透明”。蚂蚁管理层中，“合规”也被进一步强调。2021年7月，蚂蚁公布了新的15人管理团队，相较过去的20人团队，新增了CCO（首席合规官）李臣、负责蚂蚁集团战略发展部的副总裁尹铭（前人寿高管）、负责大安全事业群的副总裁赵闻飙。而首席合规官（CCO）这个职位，在原有团队中根本不存在。“透明”、“合规”，都是蚂蚁重回IPO之路的重要的前提。新蚂蚁，需要更多有“合规”属性和背景的人站在董事会和管理层里，向外界展示蚂蚁全新的面貌。沧海桑田，金融科技，这个曾经在资本市场和创业领域炙手可热的概念，如今，却黯淡下去放眼整个世界，金融科技公司们的估值、融资、上市，都成了难题。2022年5月，瑞典初创企业Klarna Bank AB新一轮融资遇冷，估值从一年前的460亿美元缩水至300亿美元。美国金融科技公司Affirm股价暴跌；专注支付、在线投顾等业务的硅谷独角兽Bolt则被爆裁员。从政策支持，有无数重量级股东背书加持，炙手可热，还有强大母公司阿里巴巴背书的多重红利加身的明星公司，到一夜之间中止IPO，再到一步步改变自己，蚂蚁的命运似乎极其特殊，却又极其普世：商业世界永远云谲波诡，变幻无常。而蚂蚁积极改组董事会，引入独立董事、推进与阿里巴巴的隔离，乃至创始人马云都放弃了实际控制权，都是明显的信号：重新建立组织结构，是否就可以满足申请金融控股公司牌照的要求，这是否意味着蚂蚁准备重启IPO？蚂蚁的命运，对整个互联网行业而言，将是2023最关键的监管风向标之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":472298632225328,"gmtCreate":1756339006977,"gmtModify":1756339019244,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ </a> ","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5796c5ae8230e64f8f236ee0e9d47b98","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/472298632225328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":651035202,"gmtCreate":1681341768108,"gmtModify":1681341768108,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ </a>gg","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ </a>gg","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/651035202","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811877004,"gmtCreate":1630313546008,"gmtModify":1676530265322,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811877004","repostId":"1107044337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107044337","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630312834,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107044337?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 16:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Meituan's Q2 revenue was 43.76 billion yuan, with a special reminder that \"may be fined\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107044337","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月30日（周一），本地生活服务巨头美团公布2021年第二季度及上半年财报。公司二季度业绩超预期，但同时提示“本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。”\n主要业绩\n第二季度\n\n二季度营收","content":"<p>August 30th (Monday), local life service giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Announced financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2021. The company's second-quarter performance exceeded expectations, but at the same time reminded that \"<b>The Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines. \"</b></p><p><b>MAJOR</b></p><p>Second quarter</p><p><ul><li>Revenue in the second quarter was 43.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and the market estimated 42.36 billion yuan.</li><li>The net loss in the second quarter was 3.36 billion yuan, the market estimated a loss of 5.25 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period last year was 2.21 billion yuan.</li><li>The loss per share in the second quarter was 0.56 yuan, compared with the profit of 0.37 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f84b2c78970e065b9a962d08e0dd22\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First half of the year</p><p><ul><li>First half revenue<b>807.75</b>100 million yuan, previous value: 41.476 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.8%.</li><li>Net profit for the first half of the<b>-8, 203 million yuan,</b>Previous value: 631 million yuan.</li><li>Loss per share in the first half of the year was 1.38 yuan, compared with profit of 0.11 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2896f97cc5f0ed1ae4779d7da61856\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, said:</p><p>This quarter, Meituan's various businesses continued to maintain steady growth, thanks to the sustained and stable recovery of China's economy, and also due to our deep integration of digitalization with the real economy and the service economy. Recently, relevant state departments have issued a series of policies and opinions, which have also given Meituan a clearer direction. We resolutely implement them, actively fulfill our social responsibilities, and continue to use the power of science and technology to help high-quality economic development and provide high-quality life services. Help everyone eat better and live better.</p><p><b>Business segments</b></p><p><ul><li>Net cash inflow from operating activities in the second quarter decreased to RMB2.9 billion from RMB5.6 billion in the same period in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the balances of cash and cash equivalents and short-term wealth management investments were RMB 71.4 billion and RMB 51.1 billion, respectively, while the related balances as of March 31, 2021 were RMB 17.8 billion and RMB 35.3 billion, respectively.</li><li>In the second quarter, the transaction amount of food delivery business increased by 59.5% year-on-year to RMB 173.6 billion. The average daily number of food delivery transactions increased by 58.9% year-on-year to 38.9 million. Revenue increased by 59.0% year-on-year to RMB 23.1 billion. Operating profit increased by 95.2% to RMB2.4 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin further improved from 8.6% to 10.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, the in-store, hotel and travel segment continued to grow steadily, with revenue increasing by 89.3% year-on-year to RMB 8.6 billion. Operating profit increased by 93.7% from RMB1.9 billion in the same period of 2020 to RMB3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin increased from 41.6% to 42.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, the revenue of the new business and others segment increased by 113.6% year-on-year to RMB 12 billion, mainly driven by the growth of retail business, B2B catering supply chain services and shared cycling services. In the second quarter of 2021, the operating loss of this segment increased to RMB 9.2 billion year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the operating loss margin continued to improve by 4.8 percentage points to negative 76.8%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012925fcfe389bb86c7ae0178c1ec62d\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The number of trading users hits a record high and platform activity rises</b></p><p>The financial report shows that the number of annual transaction users and active merchants of Meituan this quarter was 630 million and 7.7 million respectively, both hitting record highs.</p><p>The average annual number of users' transactions reached 32.8, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. In terms of main business, food delivery and in-store hotel and travel businesses have achieved steady growth, with revenue increasing to 23.1 billion yuan and 8.6 billion yuan respectively.</p><p>At the same time, in the first half of 2021, Meituan continued to play the role of an \"employment reservoir\", with an average daily active rider of more than 1 million. In the second quarter, the cost of riders was 15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%.</p><p>The survey data also shows that 60% of full-time riders earn more than 5,000 yuan a month.</p><p>Chen Shaohui, CFO of Meituan, said:</p><p>Meituan will continue to provide definite rights and employment security for the majority of riders, and take the lead in responding to the call of the state to solve their worries. In the process of continuing to support the real economy with technological innovation, we will also continue to pay attention to the common interests and long-term development of other platform participants such as merchants, and take long-term returns as the guide, constantly optimize operating efficiency, and create greater social value as the primary goal of the enterprise.</p><p><b>RESULTS ANALYSIS AND</b></p><p>Meituan said: As we continue to invest in areas that can bring long-term value to the company and provide better products and services to consumers and merchants, operating losses in new businesses and other segments have expanded accordingly.</p><p>In April 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China (the State Administration for Market Regulation) launched relevant investigations against the Company in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China. As of the date of this report, the relevant investigation is still in progress, and the Company actively cooperates with the investigation of the State Administration for Market Regulation.<b>The Company cannot predict the circumstances or outcome of such investigations at this stage, and the Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines.</b></p><p><b>Meituan's stock price changes after the announcement of past quarter financial reports and reasons</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b91e7289345671be684a73dcc1c1b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meituan's Q2 revenue was 43.76 billion yuan, with a special reminder that \"may be fined\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeituan's Q2 revenue was 43.76 billion yuan, with a special reminder that \"may be fined\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 16:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 30th (Monday), local life service giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Announced financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2021. The company's second-quarter performance exceeded expectations, but at the same time reminded that \"<b>The Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines. \"</b></p><p><b>MAJOR</b></p><p>Second quarter</p><p><ul><li>Revenue in the second quarter was 43.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and the market estimated 42.36 billion yuan.</li><li>The net loss in the second quarter was 3.36 billion yuan, the market estimated a loss of 5.25 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period last year was 2.21 billion yuan.</li><li>The loss per share in the second quarter was 0.56 yuan, compared with the profit of 0.37 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f84b2c78970e065b9a962d08e0dd22\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First half of the year</p><p><ul><li>First half revenue<b>807.75</b>100 million yuan, previous value: 41.476 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.8%.</li><li>Net profit for the first half of the<b>-8, 203 million yuan,</b>Previous value: 631 million yuan.</li><li>Loss per share in the first half of the year was 1.38 yuan, compared with profit of 0.11 yuan in the same period last year.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2896f97cc5f0ed1ae4779d7da61856\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan, said:</p><p>This quarter, Meituan's various businesses continued to maintain steady growth, thanks to the sustained and stable recovery of China's economy, and also due to our deep integration of digitalization with the real economy and the service economy. Recently, relevant state departments have issued a series of policies and opinions, which have also given Meituan a clearer direction. We resolutely implement them, actively fulfill our social responsibilities, and continue to use the power of science and technology to help high-quality economic development and provide high-quality life services. Help everyone eat better and live better.</p><p><b>Business segments</b></p><p><ul><li>Net cash inflow from operating activities in the second quarter decreased to RMB2.9 billion from RMB5.6 billion in the same period in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the balances of cash and cash equivalents and short-term wealth management investments were RMB 71.4 billion and RMB 51.1 billion, respectively, while the related balances as of March 31, 2021 were RMB 17.8 billion and RMB 35.3 billion, respectively.</li><li>In the second quarter, the transaction amount of food delivery business increased by 59.5% year-on-year to RMB 173.6 billion. The average daily number of food delivery transactions increased by 58.9% year-on-year to 38.9 million. Revenue increased by 59.0% year-on-year to RMB 23.1 billion. Operating profit increased by 95.2% to RMB2.4 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin further improved from 8.6% to 10.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, the in-store, hotel and travel segment continued to grow steadily, with revenue increasing by 89.3% year-on-year to RMB 8.6 billion. Operating profit increased by 93.7% from RMB1.9 billion in the same period of 2020 to RMB3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2021, while operating profit margin increased from 41.6% to 42.6%.</li><li>In the second quarter, the revenue of the new business and others segment increased by 113.6% year-on-year to RMB 12 billion, mainly driven by the growth of retail business, B2B catering supply chain services and shared cycling services. In the second quarter of 2021, the operating loss of this segment increased to RMB 9.2 billion year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the operating loss margin continued to improve by 4.8 percentage points to negative 76.8%.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012925fcfe389bb86c7ae0178c1ec62d\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The number of trading users hits a record high and platform activity rises</b></p><p>The financial report shows that the number of annual transaction users and active merchants of Meituan this quarter was 630 million and 7.7 million respectively, both hitting record highs.</p><p>The average annual number of users' transactions reached 32.8, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. In terms of main business, food delivery and in-store hotel and travel businesses have achieved steady growth, with revenue increasing to 23.1 billion yuan and 8.6 billion yuan respectively.</p><p>At the same time, in the first half of 2021, Meituan continued to play the role of an \"employment reservoir\", with an average daily active rider of more than 1 million. In the second quarter, the cost of riders was 15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%.</p><p>The survey data also shows that 60% of full-time riders earn more than 5,000 yuan a month.</p><p>Chen Shaohui, CFO of Meituan, said:</p><p>Meituan will continue to provide definite rights and employment security for the majority of riders, and take the lead in responding to the call of the state to solve their worries. In the process of continuing to support the real economy with technological innovation, we will also continue to pay attention to the common interests and long-term development of other platform participants such as merchants, and take long-term returns as the guide, constantly optimize operating efficiency, and create greater social value as the primary goal of the enterprise.</p><p><b>RESULTS ANALYSIS AND</b></p><p>Meituan said: As we continue to invest in areas that can bring long-term value to the company and provide better products and services to consumers and merchants, operating losses in new businesses and other segments have expanded accordingly.</p><p>In April 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China (the State Administration for Market Regulation) launched relevant investigations against the Company in accordance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China. As of the date of this report, the relevant investigation is still in progress, and the Company actively cooperates with the investigation of the State Administration for Market Regulation.<b>The Company cannot predict the circumstances or outcome of such investigations at this stage, and the Company may be required to change its business practices and/or be subject to heavy fines.</b></p><p><b>Meituan's stock price changes after the announcement of past quarter financial reports and reasons</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b91e7289345671be684a73dcc1c1b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107044337","content_text":"8月30日（周一），本地生活服务巨头美团公布2021年第二季度及上半年财报。公司二季度业绩超预期，但同时提示“本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。”\n主要业绩\n第二季度\n\n二季度营收437.6亿元，同比增长77%，市场预估423.6亿元。\n二季度净亏损33.6亿元，市场预估亏损52.5亿元，去年同期净利润22.1亿元。\n二季度每股亏损0.56元，去年同期盈利0.37元。\n\n\n上半年\n\n上半年营收807.75亿元，前值：414.76亿元，同比增长94.8%。\n上半年净利润-82.03亿元，前值：6.31亿元。\n上半年每股亏损1.38元，去年同期盈利0.11元。\n\n\n美团CEO王兴表示：\n\n 本季度美团各项业务继续保持稳健增长，得益于中国经济持续稳定恢复，也源于我们将数字化与实体经济、服务经济深度融合。\n\n\n 最近，国家相关部门出台了系列政策和意见，这也给了美团更明确的方向，我们坚决落实，积极履行社会责任，继续用科技的力量，助力经济高质量发展，提供高品质生活服务，帮大家吃得更好，生活更好。\n\n\n业务分类\n\n第二季度的经营活动所得现金流入净额由2020年同期的人民币56亿元减少至人民币29亿元。截至2021年6月30日，现金及现金等价物及短期理财投资的结余分别为人民币714亿元及人民币511亿元，而截至2021年3月31日的相关结余则分别为人民币178亿元及人民币353亿元。\n第二季度，餐饮外卖业务交易金额同比增长59.5%至人民币1,736亿元。餐饮外卖日均交易笔数同比增长58.9%至38.9百万笔。收入同比增长59.0%至人民币231亿元。经营溢利于2021年第二季度增加95.2%至人民币24亿元，而经营利润率则由8.6%进一步改善至10.6%。\n第二季度，到店、酒店及旅游分部继续稳定增长，收入同比增加89.3%至人民币86亿元。经营溢利由2020年同期的人民币19亿元增加93.7%至2021年第二季度的人民币37亿元，而经营利润率则由41.6%增加至42.6%。\n第二季度，新业务及其他分部的收入同比增长113.6%至人民币120亿元，主要受零售业务、B2B餐饮供应链服务及共享骑行服务增长的推动。2021年第二季度，该分部的经营亏损同比及环比增长至人民币92亿元，而经营亏损率则继续改善4.8个百分点至负76.8%。\n\n\n\n交易用户数创历史新高 平台活跃度上升\n财报显示，本季度美团年度交易用户数和活跃商家数分别为6.3亿和770万，均创历史新高。\n用户年均交易笔数达32.8笔，同比增长27.8%。主体业务方面，餐饮外卖和到店酒旅业务均实现稳健增长，收入分别增至231亿元和86亿元。\n同时，2021年上半年，美团继续发挥“就业蓄水池”作用，日均活跃骑手超过100万人，二季度骑手成本支出155亿元，同比增长53%。\n调研数据还显示，6成全职骑手月收入高于5000元。\n美团CFO陈少晖表示：\n\n 美团将继续为广大骑手群体提供确定的权益及就业保障，率先响应国家号召，解决他们的后顾之忧。在以科技创新继续助力实体经济的过程中，我们也会继续关注商家等其他平台参与方共同的利益和长远发展，以长期回报为导向，不断优化经营效率，以创造更大的社会价值为企业首要目标。\n\n\n业绩分析及前景预期\n美团表示：由于我们继续投资于能够为本公司带来长期价值并为消费者和商家提供更好产品和服务的领域，新业务及其他分部的经营亏损随之扩大。\n2021年4月，中华人民共和国国家市场监督管理总局（国家市场监督管理总局）根据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》对本公司展开相关调查。截至本报告日期，相关调查仍在进行，本公司积极配合国家市场监督管理总局的调查。本公司于现阶段无法预测相关调查的情况或结果，本公司可能会被要求改变其商业惯例及╱或被处以高额罚款。\n美团过往季度财报公布后股价变动情况及原因","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838698947,"gmtCreate":1629388849789,"gmtModify":1676530026958,"author":{"id":"3549871285956389","authorId":"3549871285956389","name":"_无解_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd513996b2ed568c822a25e7a5f7284","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549871285956389","idStr":"3549871285956389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reboot error","listText":"Reboot error","text":"Reboot error","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838698947","repostId":"1198913754","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198913754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198913754?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198913754","media":"Alpha","summary":"中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。","content":"<p>Source | MorganStanley</p><p>Translation | Lion Knife</p><p>Beijing is shifting its regulatory priorities to striking a balance between growth, sustainability, improving social imbalances and maintaining various security. This will shift the division of economic benefits more to workers and reduce corporate profits. We believe this will have a long-term and far-reaching market impact.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The reset of the underlying regulatory logic brought about by the new goals</b></p><p>We are standing at an important turning point in China's economy and capital markets. After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, Beijing is adjusting its regulatory priorities to pay more attention to sustainability, social equity, data security, and autonomy and control. China's escalation of restrictions on financial technology, big technology giants, after-school education, digital currency, and carbon emissions is the embodiment of this logical reset.</p><p><b>Economic impact: Under the new logical paradigm, China seems to be trying to tilt the distribution of economic benefits to workers, which will lead to a decline in the proportion of corporate profits.</b>We see that industry policy risks related to social imbalance, economic sustainability, and data and network security may rise, while high-end manufacturing, independent and controllable technology, and clean energy are supported by favorable policies. We continue to closely monitor possible \"over-regulation\" risks. At the same time, we also pay attention to possible reversal signals, including, for example, IPOs of technology companies in Hong Kong, clear signals to solve employee welfare issues of platform companies, or speeches from top policymakers.</p><p><b>Investment impact: We expect this reset to have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the valuation and ERP of China's equity market, but mainly because its impact is on the Internet sector, which is an important weight of China index, accounting for about 40% to 50% in MSCI China. The future revenue and profit margin of this sector are still uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Challenges and opportunities: Data-heavy technology and platform companies, as well as real estate companies, are still under policy suppression. The \"new economy\" sector will continue to enjoy policy support.</b></p><p><b>From growth priority to equity: After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, the new goals are social equality, data security, and autonomy and control.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e58614008bd9193516d44d50facb99\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd3e0278e0c3b26a6ad4d7e8e8be9e7\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Four main areas of policy concern: social risk, country risk, financial risk, environmental risk</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e33c676aeb760ee9b2f48bf2660cef\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Every regulation in Chinese history has brought about the subversion of the underlying logic of an industry: mining, dairy products, wine, cross-border investment, games, medicine, and this time the Internet:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677fc9d0d275a75c63d3cf3ecbb4f825\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Industry shocks caused by past regulations:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a06b840890b3c3c9b0d3296642172f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk points that may need to be observed include: market shocks caused by over-regulation, insufficient policy coordination, insufficient policy communication, and ultimately possible drag on productivity:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e7c756f11725be90e6fdf4c294be5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Event resolution signpost that can be observed:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679e1e315dee59217044c5838cfa0999\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact on China's equity index is mainly in MSCI China (the Internet accounts for 47%):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76dc2db905695bea07925978efd4ada\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>How to Understand China's Logical Reset</b></p><p>New goals in a new era: We believe that the recent regulatory tightening reflects changes in China's underlying logic, not just for Internet giants. In the past decade, Beijing's core goal has been to maintain double-digit income growth, eradicate absolute poverty, and give the highest weight to economic growth. However, it also brought about huge social imbalances, which prompted the current government to turn to \"getting rich together---common prosperity\" as a new development goal, and will include social balance, supply chain controllability, data security, etc. introduced new government KPIs.</p><p>Policy development over the past nine months reflects this goal. Simply put, we believe that China is balancing rising corporate profits with declining worker compensation, so that workers can share more of the benefits of economic development, which may lead to systematic valuation declines in some sectors. We believe that policy makers must face a severe balancing challenge: if China still wants to become a strong economy, it must ensure the vitality of private enterprises to promote innovation and help the internationalization of RMB and capital flow. Although the new regulation imposes restrictions on social responsibility and data use, we still believe that it will not have a disproportionate impact on other equity sectors.</p><p><b>But this does not mean that there will be no shock in the equity market:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ccd973f1b506ca1c7605054a90ac31\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f37d326af3cfee7a2fec20f8dbdf4f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Many of the contents of this supervision are actually old contents. Why did it suddenly accelerate in the past nine months? We have seen this scene countless times: the mining industry in 2006-08, the dairy industry in 2008-10, the high-end liquor catering industry in 13-14, the foreign investment in 16-17, and the drugs in 18-19 have mostly existed for 1-2 years.</p><p><b>How to deal with the position adjustment: It is still necessary to temporarily avoid industry sectors with negative policies (targets related to people's livelihood and safety). More attention: new economic sectors such as clean energy, data and network security, high-end manufacturing, controllable semiconductor supply chain, and innovative biopharmaceuticals.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09a55a3f8b415786b9dfabf4f429e1\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Several past policy impact experiences</b></p><p><b>2012-2016: Anti-corruption</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb81809fdebb42213ea92a256c082ff\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50aaf196ed86994418e4335eaf8d5e0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85e9cd18f472ac26bab15a70c87ea1\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598bdacee94a0ad90d52853ce13cae6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Supply-side reform from 2015 to 2018:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db23d7ec3bf09f8c1bd8a07ed83d98\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cfdf80141ae5023b8f1110ca3fb4360\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d613f5fa8f6a97ceea3b707c9edc60cf\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c883fc15cbd0f913f7e7e73759aa4a\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b01a86595cb5d8ca8a977878bd8e271\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bcb184613ed9d1170ca4adb87ae947\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Published a document titled<b>Consumption 2030: \"Service\" First</b>According to the report, by 2030, China's consumption pattern will undergo tremendous changes. As a result of this change, services will create more value to GDP than goods.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley, by 2030, the per capita income of Chinese households will double, and the purchasing power will be dominated by the age groups 35-44 and 55 + (baby boomers born in 1960s and their children). In addition, by 2030, the focus of consumption will shift from the current \"young consumers\" to \"household needs and retirement consumption\".</p><p>With<b>\"Emotional health\"</b>And<b>\"Self-actualization\"</b>Targeted consumption will become increasingly prominent, and consumers will increasingly rely on a \"fully automated\" society. Morgan Stanley believes that the consumption concept of Chinese consumers will lead the world.</p><p><b>So what are the main drivers of this change?</b>Morgan Stanley believes that there are five factors: income, demographic characteristics, technology, policy and culture. At the same time, the report also points out possible risk points in the process of consumption development.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52260f7816eccaeef6f290065075b3cb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"1113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is a partial summary of the report:</p><p><b>China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest consumer</b></p><p>In this report, we update our forecast for China's consumer market based on changes in household income and policy trends. We believe that China's average household income will rise from US $6,000 to US $12,000 by 2030. The important driving forces of growth are urbanization 2.0, continued economic opening to maintain the international competitiveness of China's supply chain, and continuous reform to attract foreign capital inflows.</p><p>Although the aging population will naturally increase the consumption rate, Chinese policymakers are also working hard to promote the internal economic circulation strategy to unlock China's consumption potential, mainly with the aim of coping with the challenges brought by a multi-polar post-COVID-19 era to China's exports. challenge.</p><p><b>On the one hand, the main means to promote this strategy is digitalization, so as to increase the penetration rate of e-commerce in both physical and service aspects and support consumption anytime and anywhere; On the other hand, through reform, the bottleneck factors affecting consumption, such as logistics, import taxes, and household registration, should be eliminated.</b></p><p>Therefore, we expect that the size of China's consumer market will double in the next decade, reaching 12.7 trillion USD, which is 30% higher than our 2017 forecast of 9.7 trillion USD.</p><p><b>This means that in the next decade, China's consumer market will maintain an annualized growth rate of 7.9%, making it one of the fastest growing countries in the world.</b></p><p>China's commodity consumer market has now surpassed that of the United States as its largest market in the world. If service consumption is included, the current consumer market in the United States is still significantly larger than that in China. But if our prediction comes true, even if service consumption is included, China will become the largest consumer market in the world in ten years.</p><p>An important feature of the changes in China's consumer market in the next decade is that service consumption exceeds physical consumption.</p><p>We now expect the proportion of service consumption to increase from the current 45% to 52%, with an annualized growth rate of 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of physical consumption in the same period.</p><p><b>This is different from western countries.</b>In western countries, when the average household income reaches $8,000 to $10,000, the increase in the proportion of service consumption basically stagnates. However, in China, we have observed a steady upward trend. On the one hand, the main reason is China's unique demographic structure. China's one-child policy, which has lasted for many years, has greatly increased the burden of the prime population to look after their elderly parents, thus bringing more demand for service consumption. On the other hand, based on the high degree of digitalization of mobile Internet, the convenience and speed of obtaining services are greatly enhanced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9be3c9e1ba80d995089f26b991fee7\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which tracks are worth investing in?</b></p><p>Investment framework we use: As China's consumer market growth shifts from physical-driven to service-driven, and the focus shifts from young people's consumption to family needs and retirement plans, we expect corresponding changes in all walks of life. In order to better analyze these changes, we divide many industries into four major categories based on their product lines and the driving forces of industry changes:</p><p><b>➤ Expansion</b>(Service-related industries mainly fall into this category)</p><p>In the next few years, it will face structured growth, such as: property management, medical services, elderly care services, medical insurance, education, domestic tourism and inbound tourism, tourism shopping, especially duty-free shops, family convenience services and local life services.</p><p><b>➤ Evolve</b>(mainly driven by new business models)</p><p>The next few years will face structural changes. Divided into two categories again. One is the evolutionary business model, such as: integration platform, supply chain management and sales channel management services, the implementation of C2M (Consumer2Manufacturer, that is, mass customization service) business model, and a wider range of AI, AR and VR applications.</p><p><b>➤ newly-developing</b>(an industry driven by a combination of technology and services)</p><p>Industries that are still limited in scale in 2020, but will have significant commercial influence before 2030. For example: emotional partners, rehabilitation medical services, services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>(business and consumer categories), dating services, and consumers who pay more attention to the company's Social responsibility (ESG, Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance, that is, Environmental protection, Social responsibility, and Corporate Governance).</p><p><b>➤ Pre-growth</b>(Those mature industries that have been subverted by demographic changes and technology)</p><p>For example: low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, traditional cars, and traditional home appliances.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18be9f38bf23ac7c702e3420cd217e67\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above classification of many industries based on the outlook for the next decade has laid the foundation for our top-down stock selection methodology.</p><p>Below we further refine this classification system and analyze the companies in each category through four element dimensions to form the framework for our research on individual stocks.<b>These four elements are: brand, channel, technology and service. With this framework, we can conduct research on the competitiveness of a company within the industry.</b></p><p><b>Investment conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect institutionalized services (education, integrated platforms, healthcare, elderly care services, medical insurance, supply chain management), smart life (digital property management, smart homes, and electric vehicles), life experience enhancement services/products (emotional companions) Categories such as pets, toys, rehabilitation medical services, service robots, and social platforms) will have steady and rapid growth.</p><p>But offline platforms, such as traditional cars and home appliances, will face the fate of being subverted. We also expect some fast-growing industries to face a slowdown in growth, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, and traditional household goods.</p><p><b>Five Drivers and Possible Risk Points</b></p><p>Five major driving factors for the growth and model evolution of China's consumer market in the next decade:</p><p><b>(1) Income-The process of becoming a high-income country is usually accompanied by the steady growth of service consumption.</b></p><p>According to our calculations, per capita disposable income will double from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030. From the international experience, when the per capita disposable income reaches 8,000-10,000 USD, the share of service consumption will grow steadily. In the next ten years, the average annual compound growth rate of service consumption in China is expected to reach 9.2%, exceeding 6.7% of commodity consumption.</p><p><b>This trend may be related to the following two factors:</b></p><p>1. Before the full opening of the second child, China's family planning policy led to the aging of the population and increased the nursing burden of the elderly. Now, this phenomenon is likely to be translated into more service consumption demand.</p><p>2. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has further deepened the public's awareness of technologies such as big data. This year may become an inflection point for the large-scale use of technologies. With the widespread application of basic technologies, the service threshold will continue to decrease.</p><p><b>(2) Population characteristics-the most important generational transition occurs within 2-3 years</b></p><p>Changes in China's population policy in the past few decades have led to uneven distribution of the population among all age groups; The rapid changes of China's economy in the past few decades have also led to the distribution of income levels among all age groups being different from that of ordinary economies.</p><p>According to our research, by 2030, the two age groups with the highest concentration of population distribution will be 35 to 44 years old and over 55 years old.</p><p>From the perspective of income level, these two age groups will also happen to be the two age groups with the highest disposable income. From the perspective of consumption behavior, the main consumption expenditure of people aged 35 to 44 is concentrated in household needs, while those over 55 are mainly aging and retired people.</p><p>Based on this analysis, we conclude that China's consumer market will transition from young people as the main force in 2020 to family needs and retirement plans as the main force in 2030.</p><p><b>(3) Technology-China's unique consumption growth path</b></p><p>Digitalization can also strongly support the conclusion that China will become a consumption-driven economy from another angle.</p><p>The extremely high penetration rate of digitalization in China has greatly improved the operating efficiency of toC companies and the interaction efficiency between consumers and sales channels.</p><p>Digitalization is also in line with the Chinese government's urbanization strategy aiming at super smart cities. This strategy hopes to realize faster, safer, more environmentally friendly and more livable urban communities with the help of digital technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence.</p><p><b>Specifically, we see two different trends in promoting consumption:</b></p><p><b>1. Digitalization of traditional economy:</b>This will improve operational efficiency as a whole and enhance the spending power of families.</p><p><b>2. New lifestyles in super smart cities:</b>The widespread application of next-generation technologies can support consumption anytime, anywhere. These technologies include: super APP, smart home based on the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and big data analytics.</p><p><b>(4) Policy-government support to release consumption potential</b></p><p>China's 14 five-year plans will focus on developing sustainable growth driven by domestic demand to cope with the multi-polar post-COVID-19 world, and are also working hard to promote the internal economic circulation strategy to unlock China's consumption potential.</p><p>When Japan's population began to age in 1990, the urbanization rate had reached 77%, and the household savings rate was at a relatively low level of 17%.</p><p>However, China's current urbanization rate is only 61%, and the household savings rate is at a high level of 35%. It seems that the consumption potential that can be tapped is still very huge.</p><p>Therefore, we expect to see various measures on both the supply side and the demand side in the next few years to eliminate consumption bottlenecks. Supply-side measures include upgrading new infrastructure, upgrading high-speed rail network, and facilitating consumption return. Measures on the demand side include increasing the coverage of social welfare, reducing income inequality and promoting vocational training.</p><p><b>(5) Culture-influenced by consumer values</b></p><p>Cultural differences among different countries may be an important reason for different consumption behaviors. What to buy, where to buy, and even how to buy it, Chinese consumers, consumers in western countries, and even consumers in other Asian countries may not understand the behavior.</p><p>Although globalization has brought many western elements to the lifestyle of contemporary China, we can still see that Chinese consumers are rooted in China's unique local culture.</p><p>1. Pay great attention to family ties and are willing to provide considerable financial support to family members.</p><p>2. When spending, you often have long-term goals.</p><p>3. There are significant differences in lifestyles among different age groups (such as the use of online platforms and travel needs)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2443caaf2ad039bb2cb70d7b5b8ba79f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Possible risk points:</b></p><p><b>(1) Anti-monopoly measures for integrated technology platforms:</b>The rapid penetration and growth of service-related consumption is highly dependent on the integrated Internet technology platform. The anti-monopoly policy issued by the government aims to prevent large technology companies from monopolizing the market and promote healthy market competition, but too aggressive policies may also delay the growth of service-related consumption.</p><p><b>(2) Tightening of consumer credit:</b>Policymakers have recently upgraded the supervision of Internet small loans and consumer credit platforms, but we think the impact on consumption should be small, because the balance sheet of Chinese households as a whole still looks healthy. However, if the policy further tightens consumer credit and even affects banking channels, it may have a negative impact on the growth of consumption.</p><p><b>(3) Relatively slow advancement of social security reform:</b>We believe that more universal and even social security coverage, especially in those key metropolitan areas, will effectively reduce the money people save to cope with the uncertainty of the future, thus promoting consumption. Therefore, if the advancement of reforms in these areas is slower than expected, it will affect the release of consumption potential.</p><p><b>(4) Privacy concerns for big data:</b>A big advantage China has is that it faces low resistance in consumer data collection in the process of building smart cities. If the public pays more attention to data privacy, or the international data supervision and coordination mechanism is facing an upgrade, it will lead to restrictions on the application of many new technologies based on big data analysis in the consumer field. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the widespread application of personal positioning technology and health codes has improved the public's acceptance of big data applications to a certain extent, thus reducing the risk in this regard.</p><p><b>(5) Social problems caused unintentionally:</b>The widespread use of automation and artificial intelligence may lead to worse unemployment problems than expected, especially in construction and low value-added manufacturing. Of course, we believe that vocational training and fast-growing services can solve some problems, but if the application of high technology is too fast, social friction caused by unemployment still risks inhibiting consumption growth.</p>","source":"lsy1628997733188","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: China is resetting the underlying logic of the economy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Source | MorganStanley</p><p>Translation | Lion Knife</p><p>Beijing is shifting its regulatory priorities to striking a balance between growth, sustainability, improving social imbalances and maintaining various security. This will shift the division of economic benefits more to workers and reduce corporate profits. We believe this will have a long-term and far-reaching market impact.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The reset of the underlying regulatory logic brought about by the new goals</b></p><p>We are standing at an important turning point in China's economy and capital markets. After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, Beijing is adjusting its regulatory priorities to pay more attention to sustainability, social equity, data security, and autonomy and control. China's escalation of restrictions on financial technology, big technology giants, after-school education, digital currency, and carbon emissions is the embodiment of this logical reset.</p><p><b>Economic impact: Under the new logical paradigm, China seems to be trying to tilt the distribution of economic benefits to workers, which will lead to a decline in the proportion of corporate profits.</b>We see that industry policy risks related to social imbalance, economic sustainability, and data and network security may rise, while high-end manufacturing, independent and controllable technology, and clean energy are supported by favorable policies. We continue to closely monitor possible \"over-regulation\" risks. At the same time, we also pay attention to possible reversal signals, including, for example, IPOs of technology companies in Hong Kong, clear signals to solve employee welfare issues of platform companies, or speeches from top policymakers.</p><p><b>Investment impact: We expect this reset to have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the valuation and ERP of China's equity market, but mainly because its impact is on the Internet sector, which is an important weight of China index, accounting for about 40% to 50% in MSCI China. The future revenue and profit margin of this sector are still uncertain.</b></p><p><b>Challenges and opportunities: Data-heavy technology and platform companies, as well as real estate companies, are still under policy suppression. The \"new economy\" sector will continue to enjoy policy support.</b></p><p><b>From growth priority to equity: After decades of efforts to eradicate absolute poverty, the new goals are social equality, data security, and autonomy and control.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e58614008bd9193516d44d50facb99\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd3e0278e0c3b26a6ad4d7e8e8be9e7\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Four main areas of policy concern: social risk, country risk, financial risk, environmental risk</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e33c676aeb760ee9b2f48bf2660cef\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Every regulation in Chinese history has brought about the subversion of the underlying logic of an industry: mining, dairy products, wine, cross-border investment, games, medicine, and this time the Internet:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677fc9d0d275a75c63d3cf3ecbb4f825\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Industry shocks caused by past regulations:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a06b840890b3c3c9b0d3296642172f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk points that may need to be observed include: market shocks caused by over-regulation, insufficient policy coordination, insufficient policy communication, and ultimately possible drag on productivity:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e7c756f11725be90e6fdf4c294be5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Event resolution signpost that can be observed:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679e1e315dee59217044c5838cfa0999\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact on China's equity index is mainly in MSCI China (the Internet accounts for 47%):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76dc2db905695bea07925978efd4ada\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>How to Understand China's Logical Reset</b></p><p>New goals in a new era: We believe that the recent regulatory tightening reflects changes in China's underlying logic, not just for Internet giants. In the past decade, Beijing's core goal has been to maintain double-digit income growth, eradicate absolute poverty, and give the highest weight to economic growth. However, it also brought about huge social imbalances, which prompted the current government to turn to \"getting rich together---common prosperity\" as a new development goal, and will include social balance, supply chain controllability, data security, etc. introduced new government KPIs.</p><p>Policy development over the past nine months reflects this goal. Simply put, we believe that China is balancing rising corporate profits with declining worker compensation, so that workers can share more of the benefits of economic development, which may lead to systematic valuation declines in some sectors. We believe that policy makers must face a severe balancing challenge: if China still wants to become a strong economy, it must ensure the vitality of private enterprises to promote innovation and help the internationalization of RMB and capital flow. Although the new regulation imposes restrictions on social responsibility and data use, we still believe that it will not have a disproportionate impact on other equity sectors.</p><p><b>But this does not mean that there will be no shock in the equity market:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ccd973f1b506ca1c7605054a90ac31\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f37d326af3cfee7a2fec20f8dbdf4f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Many of the contents of this supervision are actually old contents. Why did it suddenly accelerate in the past nine months? We have seen this scene countless times: the mining industry in 2006-08, the dairy industry in 2008-10, the high-end liquor catering industry in 13-14, the foreign investment in 16-17, and the drugs in 18-19 have mostly existed for 1-2 years.</p><p><b>How to deal with the position adjustment: It is still necessary to temporarily avoid industry sectors with negative policies (targets related to people's livelihood and safety). More attention: new economic sectors such as clean energy, data and network security, high-end manufacturing, controllable semiconductor supply chain, and innovative biopharmaceuticals.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09a55a3f8b415786b9dfabf4f429e1\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Several past policy impact experiences</b></p><p><b>2012-2016: Anti-corruption</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb81809fdebb42213ea92a256c082ff\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50aaf196ed86994418e4335eaf8d5e0\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba85e9cd18f472ac26bab15a70c87ea1\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4598bdacee94a0ad90d52853ce13cae6\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Supply-side reform from 2015 to 2018:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5db23d7ec3bf09f8c1bd8a07ed83d98\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cfdf80141ae5023b8f1110ca3fb4360\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d613f5fa8f6a97ceea3b707c9edc60cf\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c883fc15cbd0f913f7e7e73759aa4a\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b01a86595cb5d8ca8a977878bd8e271\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bcb184613ed9d1170ca4adb87ae947\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Published a document titled<b>Consumption 2030: \"Service\" First</b>According to the report, by 2030, China's consumption pattern will undergo tremendous changes. As a result of this change, services will create more value to GDP than goods.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley, by 2030, the per capita income of Chinese households will double, and the purchasing power will be dominated by the age groups 35-44 and 55 + (baby boomers born in 1960s and their children). In addition, by 2030, the focus of consumption will shift from the current \"young consumers\" to \"household needs and retirement consumption\".</p><p>With<b>\"Emotional health\"</b>And<b>\"Self-actualization\"</b>Targeted consumption will become increasingly prominent, and consumers will increasingly rely on a \"fully automated\" society. Morgan Stanley believes that the consumption concept of Chinese consumers will lead the world.</p><p><b>So what are the main drivers of this change?</b>Morgan Stanley believes that there are five factors: income, demographic characteristics, technology, policy and culture. At the same time, the report also points out possible risk points in the process of consumption development.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52260f7816eccaeef6f290065075b3cb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"1113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is a partial summary of the report:</p><p><b>China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest consumer</b></p><p>In this report, we update our forecast for China's consumer market based on changes in household income and policy trends. We believe that China's average household income will rise from US $6,000 to US $12,000 by 2030. The important driving forces of growth are urbanization 2.0, continued economic opening to maintain the international competitiveness of China's supply chain, and continuous reform to attract foreign capital inflows.</p><p>Although the aging population will naturally increase the consumption rate, Chinese policymakers are also working hard to promote the internal economic circulation strategy to unlock China's consumption potential, mainly with the aim of coping with the challenges brought by a multi-polar post-COVID-19 era to China's exports. challenge.</p><p><b>On the one hand, the main means to promote this strategy is digitalization, so as to increase the penetration rate of e-commerce in both physical and service aspects and support consumption anytime and anywhere; On the other hand, through reform, the bottleneck factors affecting consumption, such as logistics, import taxes, and household registration, should be eliminated.</b></p><p>Therefore, we expect that the size of China's consumer market will double in the next decade, reaching 12.7 trillion USD, which is 30% higher than our 2017 forecast of 9.7 trillion USD.</p><p><b>This means that in the next decade, China's consumer market will maintain an annualized growth rate of 7.9%, making it one of the fastest growing countries in the world.</b></p><p>China's commodity consumer market has now surpassed that of the United States as its largest market in the world. If service consumption is included, the current consumer market in the United States is still significantly larger than that in China. But if our prediction comes true, even if service consumption is included, China will become the largest consumer market in the world in ten years.</p><p>An important feature of the changes in China's consumer market in the next decade is that service consumption exceeds physical consumption.</p><p>We now expect the proportion of service consumption to increase from the current 45% to 52%, with an annualized growth rate of 9.2%, exceeding the 6.7% growth rate of physical consumption in the same period.</p><p><b>This is different from western countries.</b>In western countries, when the average household income reaches $8,000 to $10,000, the increase in the proportion of service consumption basically stagnates. However, in China, we have observed a steady upward trend. On the one hand, the main reason is China's unique demographic structure. China's one-child policy, which has lasted for many years, has greatly increased the burden of the prime population to look after their elderly parents, thus bringing more demand for service consumption. On the other hand, based on the high degree of digitalization of mobile Internet, the convenience and speed of obtaining services are greatly enhanced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9be3c9e1ba80d995089f26b991fee7\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Which tracks are worth investing in?</b></p><p>Investment framework we use: As China's consumer market growth shifts from physical-driven to service-driven, and the focus shifts from young people's consumption to family needs and retirement plans, we expect corresponding changes in all walks of life. In order to better analyze these changes, we divide many industries into four major categories based on their product lines and the driving forces of industry changes:</p><p><b>➤ Expansion</b>(Service-related industries mainly fall into this category)</p><p>In the next few years, it will face structured growth, such as: property management, medical services, elderly care services, medical insurance, education, domestic tourism and inbound tourism, tourism shopping, especially duty-free shops, family convenience services and local life services.</p><p><b>➤ Evolve</b>(mainly driven by new business models)</p><p>The next few years will face structural changes. Divided into two categories again. One is the evolutionary business model, such as: integration platform, supply chain management and sales channel management services, the implementation of C2M (Consumer2Manufacturer, that is, mass customization service) business model, and a wider range of AI, AR and VR applications.</p><p><b>➤ newly-developing</b>(an industry driven by a combination of technology and services)</p><p>Industries that are still limited in scale in 2020, but will have significant commercial influence before 2030. For example: emotional partners, rehabilitation medical services, services<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>(business and consumer categories), dating services, and consumers who pay more attention to the company's Social responsibility (ESG, Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance, that is, Environmental protection, Social responsibility, and Corporate Governance).</p><p><b>➤ Pre-growth</b>(Those mature industries that have been subverted by demographic changes and technology)</p><p>For example: low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, traditional cars, and traditional home appliances.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18be9f38bf23ac7c702e3420cd217e67\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above classification of many industries based on the outlook for the next decade has laid the foundation for our top-down stock selection methodology.</p><p>Below we further refine this classification system and analyze the companies in each category through four element dimensions to form the framework for our research on individual stocks.<b>These four elements are: brand, channel, technology and service. With this framework, we can conduct research on the competitiveness of a company within the industry.</b></p><p><b>Investment conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect institutionalized services (education, integrated platforms, healthcare, elderly care services, medical insurance, supply chain management), smart life (digital property management, smart homes, and electric vehicles), life experience enhancement services/products (emotional companions) Categories such as pets, toys, rehabilitation medical services, service robots, and social platforms) will have steady and rapid growth.</p><p>But offline platforms, such as traditional cars and home appliances, will face the fate of being subverted. We also expect some fast-growing industries to face a slowdown in growth, such as low-end alcoholic beverages, basic necessities, and traditional household goods.</p><p><b>Five Drivers and Possible Risk Points</b></p><p>Five major driving factors for the growth and model evolution of China's consumer market in the next decade:</p><p><b>(1) Income-The process of becoming a high-income country is usually accompanied by the steady growth of service consumption.</b></p><p>According to our calculations, per capita disposable income will double from $6,000 today to $12,000 by 2030. From the international experience, when the per capita disposable income reaches 8,000-10,000 USD, the share of service consumption will grow steadily. In the next ten years, the average annual compound growth rate of service consumption in China is expected to reach 9.2%, exceeding 6.7% of commodity consumption.</p><p><b>This trend may be related to the following two factors:</b></p><p>1. Before the full opening of the second child, China's family planning policy led to the aging of the population and increased the nursing burden of the elderly. Now, this phenomenon is likely to be translated into more service consumption demand.</p><p>2. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has further deepened the public's awareness of technologies such as big data. This year may become an inflection point for the large-scale use of technologies. With the widespread application of basic technologies, the service threshold will continue to decrease.</p><p><b>(2) Population characteristics-the most important generational transition occurs within 2-3 years</b></p><p>Changes in China's population policy in the past few decades have led to uneven distribution of the population among all age groups; The rapid changes of China's economy in the past few decades have also led to the distribution of income levels among all age groups being different from that of ordinary economies.</p><p>According to our research, by 2030, the two age groups with the highest concentration of population distribution will be 35 to 44 years old and over 55 years old.</p><p>From the perspective of income level, these two age groups will also happen to be the two age groups with the highest disposable income. From the perspective of consumption behavior, the main consumption expenditure of people aged 35 to 44 is concentrated in household needs, while those over 55 are mainly aging and retired people.</p><p>Based on this analysis, we conclude that China's consumer market will transition from young people as the main force in 2020 to family needs and retirement plans as the main force in 2030.</p><p><b>(3) Technology-China's unique consumption growth path</b></p><p>Digitalization can also strongly support the conclusion that China will become a consumption-driven economy from another angle.</p><p>The extremely high penetration rate of digitalization in China has greatly improved the operating efficiency of toC companies and the interaction efficiency between consumers and sales channels.</p><p>Digitalization is also in line with the Chinese government's urbanization strategy aiming at super smart cities. This strategy hopes to realize faster, safer, more environmentally friendly and more livable urban communities with the help of digital technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence.</p><p><b>Specifically, we see two different trends in promoting consumption:</b></p><p><b>1. Digitalization of traditional economy:</b>This will improve operational efficiency as a whole and enhance the spending power of families.</p><p><b>2. New lifestyles in super smart cities:</b>The widespread application of next-generation technologies can support consumption anytime, anywhere. These technologies include: super APP, smart home based on the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and big data analytics.</p><p><b>(4) Policy-government support to release consumption potential</b></p><p>China's 14 five-year plans will focus on developing sustainable growth driven by domestic demand to cope with the multi-polar post-COVID-19 world, and are also working hard to promote the internal economic circulation strategy to unlock China's consumption potential.</p><p>When Japan's population began to age in 1990, the urbanization rate had reached 77%, and the household savings rate was at a relatively low level of 17%.</p><p>However, China's current urbanization rate is only 61%, and the household savings rate is at a high level of 35%. It seems that the consumption potential that can be tapped is still very huge.</p><p>Therefore, we expect to see various measures on both the supply side and the demand side in the next few years to eliminate consumption bottlenecks. Supply-side measures include upgrading new infrastructure, upgrading high-speed rail network, and facilitating consumption return. Measures on the demand side include increasing the coverage of social welfare, reducing income inequality and promoting vocational training.</p><p><b>(5) Culture-influenced by consumer values</b></p><p>Cultural differences among different countries may be an important reason for different consumption behaviors. What to buy, where to buy, and even how to buy it, Chinese consumers, consumers in western countries, and even consumers in other Asian countries may not understand the behavior.</p><p>Although globalization has brought many western elements to the lifestyle of contemporary China, we can still see that Chinese consumers are rooted in China's unique local culture.</p><p>1. Pay great attention to family ties and are willing to provide considerable financial support to family members.</p><p>2. When spending, you often have long-term goals.</p><p>3. There are significant differences in lifestyles among different age groups (such as the use of online platforms and travel needs)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2443caaf2ad039bb2cb70d7b5b8ba79f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Possible risk points:</b></p><p><b>(1) Anti-monopoly measures for integrated technology platforms:</b>The rapid penetration and growth of service-related consumption is highly dependent on the integrated Internet technology platform. The anti-monopoly policy issued by the government aims to prevent large technology companies from monopolizing the market and promote healthy market competition, but too aggressive policies may also delay the growth of service-related consumption.</p><p><b>(2) Tightening of consumer credit:</b>Policymakers have recently upgraded the supervision of Internet small loans and consumer credit platforms, but we think the impact on consumption should be small, because the balance sheet of Chinese households as a whole still looks healthy. However, if the policy further tightens consumer credit and even affects banking channels, it may have a negative impact on the growth of consumption.</p><p><b>(3) Relatively slow advancement of social security reform:</b>We believe that more universal and even social security coverage, especially in those key metropolitan areas, will effectively reduce the money people save to cope with the uncertainty of the future, thus promoting consumption. Therefore, if the advancement of reforms in these areas is slower than expected, it will affect the release of consumption potential.</p><p><b>(4) Privacy concerns for big data:</b>A big advantage China has is that it faces low resistance in consumer data collection in the process of building smart cities. If the public pays more attention to data privacy, or the international data supervision and coordination mechanism is facing an upgrade, it will lead to restrictions on the application of many new technologies based on big data analysis in the consumer field. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the widespread application of personal positioning technology and health codes has improved the public's acceptance of big data applications to a certain extent, thus reducing the risk in this regard.</p><p><b>(5) Social problems caused unintentionally:</b>The widespread use of automation and artificial intelligence may lead to worse unemployment problems than expected, especially in construction and low value-added manufacturing. Of course, we believe that vocational training and fast-growing services can solve some problems, but if the application of high technology is too fast, social friction caused by unemployment still risks inhibiting consumption growth.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0\">Alpha</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68da0043a3f7932eb6870829ddb8962d","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzI5NDYzOQ==&mid=2661002050&idx=1&sn=00d0687862af9e48c8cf54e4d22ddbaf&chksm=8497ab82b3e02294440fbd1c6978b4f09d0e384d2426a7bd2c0c9a02758ff8dcd42028f74fe8&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0814V2xUfdOGqfm36EtASXgx&sharer_sharetime=1628996831379&sharer_shareid=5b9c903a20bc36d4de78164764e2988e&key=d1d8edcf521e80783a7af918a5251862b7179024ee5f74028abb41196df309dff466c333f305e9a58db3153cf0ed27aa5a519ec835eca32abbed9002b29c993e6cce9e324ad4e51d211be0c0fa5cbdcdc90fb911e2f78d81b9e969cc4c2c9b4eb9a1e26cc028c6e81624d030fa214d4ecca61cab6c218f420979df4429f792a4&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=Acrj7L%2Bt8pq%2FprzZTLxC2AE%3D&pass_ticket=PeyI1lzG6jIysNB%2F54HPTZyzbZITEgY8rwEJztYIe%2Blfggnlig23JKX87hQKrq8U&wx_header=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198913754","content_text":"来源｜MorganStanley\n翻译｜狮刀\n北京正在将其监管优先顺序转向在增长、可持续性、改善社会不均衡、维护各项安全之间求得平衡。这将会让经济利益的划分更多转向劳动者，降低企业盈利。我们认为这将带来长久和深远的市场影响。\n01\n新目标带来的监管底层逻辑的重置\n我们正站在中国经济和资本市场一个重要的转折点上，在经过数十年消除绝对贫困的努力后，北京正在将其监管优先级进行调整，更加关心可持续性、社会公平、数据安全，和自主可控。中国对于金融科技、大科技巨头、课后教育、数字货币，以及碳排放的限制升级正是这次逻辑重置的体现。\n经济方面的影响：在新的逻辑范式下，中国似乎正在尝试将经济利益分配向劳动者倾斜，这将会带来企业盈利占比的下降。我们看到和社会不平衡，经济可持续性，以及数据和网络安全相关的行业政策风险可能上行，而高端制造、科技自主可控、以及清洁能源有政策利好的支撑。我们仍然严密监控可能的“过度监管”风险。同时也关注可能的反转信号，包括例如，在港科技企业IPO、平台型企业雇员福利问题解决的清晰信号、或者有分量的政策制定者（top policymaker）的讲话。\n投资方面的影响：我们预计这次重置对于中国权益市场的估值和ERP会带来长久和深远的影响，但主要因为其影响在互联网板块，这是中国指数的重要权重，在MSCI China占比大约在40%到50%。这一板块未来收入和利润率的不确定性仍较大。\n挑战和机会：重数据型科技和平台企业，以及房地产企业仍然处于政策压制中。“新经济”板块会继续享受政策支持。\n从增长优先到兼顾公平：长达数十年的消除绝对贫困的努力之后新的目标是社会平等、数据安全，以及自主可控。\n\n\n四个政策关注的主要领域：社会风险、国家风险、金融风险、环境风险\n\n中国历史上每一次监管都带来某个行业底层逻辑的颠覆：采掘、乳制品、酒、跨境投资、游戏、医药、以及这次的互联网：\n\n过去历次监管带来的行业震荡：\n\n可能需要观察的风险点包括：过度监管带来的市场震荡、政策协调不足、政策沟通不足，以及最终可能对生产力的拖累：\n\n可以观察的事件解决路标：\n\n对中国权益指数的影响主要在MSCI China（互联网占比47%）：\n\n02\n怎样理解中国的逻辑重置\n新纪元新目标：我们相信近期的监管收紧反应了中国底层逻辑的改变，并不只是针对互联网巨头。在过去十年中北京的核心目标是保持双位数的收入增速，并消除绝对贫困，给予经济增速以最高权重。可是同时也带来了巨大的社会不均衡，这促使本届政府转向”共同富裕“（”getting rich together---common prosperity“）作为新的发展目标，并将包括社会平衡、供应链可控、数据安全等引入了新的政府KPI。\n过去9个月的政策制定反映了这一目标。 简单来说，我们认为中国正在平衡上升中的企业利润，和下降中的劳动者补偿，让劳动者更多分享到经济体发展的收益，这可能带来某些板块系统性的估值下降。我们认为政策制定者必须面临一个严峻的平衡挑战：如果中国仍希望能成为强大的经济体，就必须保证私营企业部分的活力，来促进创新，以及帮助人民币国际化和资本流动。尽管新的监管对社会责任和数据使用带来限制，但我们仍相信不会对其他权益板块有过大的影响。\n但这并不代表不会有权益市场的震荡：\n\n\n这次监管的很多内容实际都是老内容，为什么在过去9个月中突然加速？我们曾见过这一幕不知道多少次：之前06-08年的采掘行业，08-10年的乳制品行业，13-14年的高端白酒餐饮行业，16-17年的对外投资，18年的游戏，18-19年的药品，大多都存在了1-2年。\n如何在调仓上应对：仍需要暂时回避政策利空的行业板块（民生、安全相关的标的）。更多关注：清洁能源、数据和网络安全、高端制造、半导体供应链可控、创新生物药等新经济板块。\n\n03\n过去的几次政策影响经验\n2012-2016年：反腐败\n\n\n\n\n2015-2018年供给侧改革：\n\n\n\n\n\n\n摩根士丹利发布了一份名为《消费2030：“服务”至上》的报告，报告称，到2030年，中国的消费格局将发生巨大变革。这场变革带来的结果是，服务为GDP创造的价值将超过商品。\n根据摩根士丹利预计，到2030年，中国家庭人均收入将翻一番，而购买力将由35-44岁和55岁以上年龄段（1960年代出生的婴儿潮一代及其子女）主导，此外，到了2030年，消费重点将从现在的“年轻消费者”转向为“家庭需求和退休消费”。\n以“情感健康”和“自我实现”为目标的消费将日益突出，消费者将越来越依赖一个“全自动化”的社会。摩根士丹利认为，中国消费者的消费理念将引领全球。\n那么这场变革的主要驱动力是什么？摩根士丹利认为有五个因素：收入、人口特性、技术、政策和文化，同时，报告也指出了消费发展过程中可能存在的风险点。\n\n以下为报告的部分摘要：\n中国将超越美国成为全球第一大消费国\n在这份报告中，基于家庭收入和政策动向方面的变化，我们更新了我们对中国消费市场的预测。我们认为到2030年中国的家庭平均收入将从6000美元上升到12000美元，增长的重要驱动力为城镇化2.0、经济持续开放以保持中国供应链的国际竞争力、以及持续的改革以吸引外资流入。\n尽管人口老龄化会自然地提升消费率，中国的政策制定者也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力，主要目的是应对一个多极化的后新冠时代给中国出口带来的挑战。\n推进这个战略的主要手段一方面为数字化，以提升电子商务在实物类和服务类两方面的渗透率，支持随时随地的消费；另一方面是通过改革消除影响消费的瓶颈因素，比如物流、进口税，以及户口等方面。\n因此我们预期中国的消费市场规模将在下一个十年中翻倍，达到12.7万亿美元，这比我们2017年做的预测9.7万亿美元高出30%。\n这意味着下一个十年里中国的消费市场规模将保持年化7.9%的增长率，成为全球消费市场规模增长最快的国家之一。\n中国的商品类消费市场规模目前已经超过美国为其全球第一大市场。如果把服务类消费统计在内，当前美国消费市场规模仍显著大于中国。但是如果我们的预测成为现实，即使是把服务类消费统计在内，十年后中国也将成为世界上最大的消费市场。\n下一个十年里中国消费市场变化的一个重要特征是服务类消费超过实物类消费。\n我们现在预期服务类消费的占比将从当前的45%提升至52%，年化增长率为9.2%，超过同期实物类消费6.7%的增长率。\n这一点跟西方国家有所不同。在西方国家，当家庭平均收入达到8000到10000美元时，服务类消费占比的提升就基本上停滞了，但是在中国我们观察到稳定的提升趋势，主要原因一方面是中国独特的人口结构，中国持续多年的一胎化政策极大地加重了壮年人口照看年老父母的负担，因此带来了更多的服务消费的需求。另一方面是基于移动互联网的高度数字化，使获得服务的便利性和快捷性大大增强。\n\n哪些赛道值得投？\n我们使用的投资框架：随着中国的消费市场增长从实物驱动转向服务驱动，而且关注点从年轻人的消费转向家庭需求和退休计划，我们预期各行各业也会有相应的变化。为了更好地分析这些变化，我们把诸多的行业基于他们的产品线和行业变化的驱动力，分为四个大的类别：\n➤ 扩张（服务相关的行业主要落在这个大类）\n在未来几年里将面临结构化的增长，比如：物业管理，医疗服务，养老服务，医疗保险，教育，国内旅游和入境游，旅游购物尤其是免税店，家庭便利服务和本地生活服务。\n➤ 进化（主要由新商业模式驱动）\n未来几年将面临结构性的变化。又分两类。一是进化的商业模式，比如:集成平台，供应链管理和销售渠道管理服务，C2M（Consumer2Manufacturer，即大规模定制化服务）商业模式的落地，更广泛的AI，AR和VR应用。\n➤ 新兴（由技术和服务相结合驱动的行业）\n在2020年还规模有限，但是2030年之前将具备重大商业影响力的行业。比如：情感伴侣，康复医疗服务，服务机器人（商业和消费类）,婚恋服务，对公司的社会责任感（ESG，Environmental，Social，and Corporate Governance，即环保，社会责任，和公司治理）更加注重的消费者。\n➤ 前增长（那些被人口结构变化和技术颠覆的成熟行业）\n比如：低端酒精饮料，基础必需品，传统汽车，传统家电。\n\n以上基于对下一个十年的展望作出的对诸多行业的分类为我们的自上而下的选股方法论打下了基础。\n下面我们把这个分类体系进一步细化，把每个大类里的公司通过四个要素维度来分析，以构成我们针对个股进行研究的框架。这四要素分别是：品牌，渠道，技术和服务。有了这个框架，我们就可以对一家公司在行业内的竞争力进行研究。\n投资结论：\n我们预期机构化的服务（教育，集成平台，医疗保健，养老服务，医疗保险，供应链管理），智慧生活（数字化物业管理，智能家居，和电动汽车），生活体验增强服务/产品（情感伴侣类，比如宠物，玩具，康复医疗服务，服务机器人，和社交平台）会有稳定和快速的增长。\n但是离线的平台比如传统的汽车和家电，将面临被颠覆的命运。我们还预计当前在快速增长的一些行业会面临增速放缓，比如中低端酒精饮料，基本必需品，和传统家庭用品。\n 五大驱动因素和可能的风险点\n下一个十年内中国消费市场规模增长和模式演化的五大驱动因素：\n（1） 收入-- 变成高收入国家的过程中通常伴随着服务类消费的稳定增长。\n根据我们的计算，到2030年，人均可支配收入将从现在的6000美元翻倍到12000美元。从国际经验来看，当人均可支配收入达到8000-10000美元时，服务消费的份额会稳定增长，未来十年中，中国服务消费的年均复合增长率有望达到9.2%，超过商品消费的6.7%。\n该趋势可能与以下两个因素有关：\n1，二胎全面开放之前，中国的计划生育政策导致人口老龄化加剧，增加了高龄人口的护理负担，如今，这一现象很可能会转化成为更多的服务消费需求。\n2，2020年的新冠疫情促使公众对大数据等技术的认知度进一步加深，这一年可能成为技术大规模使用的拐点，而伴随着基础技术的广泛应用，服务的门槛也会不断降低。\n（2）人口特性–最重要的世代转换发生在2-3年内\n过去几十年中国人口政策的变化导致人口在各个年龄层的分布不均匀；过去几十年中国经济的快速变迁也导致收入水平在各个年龄层之间的分布跟普通的经济体不太一样。\n根据我们的研究，到2030年，人口分布最集中的两个年龄段分别是35到44岁和55岁以上。\n而从收入水平的角度看，届时这两个年龄层也恰好是可支配收入最高的两个年龄段。从消费行为角度看，35到44岁人群的主要消费支出集中在家庭需要，而55岁以上则主要是老龄化和退休人群。\n基于这样的分析，我们得出结论，认为中国消费市场将从2020年的以年轻人为主力过渡到2030年的以家庭需求和退休计划为主力的形态。\n（3）技术-中国独特的消费增长路径\n数字化也能从另一个角度有力地支持中国将变成消费驱动的经济体这样一个结论。\n数字化在中国极高的渗透率对toC公司的经营效率以及消费者和销售渠道之间的互动效率都有很大的提高。\n数字化也非常符合中国政府以超级智慧城市为目标的城镇化战略。这个战略希望用借助于5G,云计算，大数据，物联网和人工智能这样一些数字技术实现更快、更安全、更环保、更宜居的城市社区。\n具体地说，我们看到两种不同的促进消费的趋势：\n1.传统经济的数字化：这会整体上提升运营效率并增强家庭的消费能力。\n2.超级智慧城市中新的生活方式：下一代技术的广泛应用可以支持随时随地的消费。这些技术包括：超级APP，基于物联网的智能家居，人工智能和大数据分析。\n（4）政策--政府支持以释放消费潜力\n中国的14个五年计划将专注于发展国内需求驱动的可持续的增长，以应对多极化的后新冠世界，也在努力地推进经济内循环战略以释放中国的消费潜力。\n日本在1990年人口开始老龄化的时候，城镇化率已经达到77%，家庭储蓄率处在17%这样一个相对低的水平。\n而中国目前的城镇化率只有61%，家庭储蓄率处在35%的较高水准，看起来可挖掘的消费潜力还非常巨大。\n所以我们预计在未来数年中会看到供给端和需求端都会有各种措施来消除消费瓶颈。供应端的措施包括提升新基建、升级高铁网络、为消费回岸提供便利。需求端的措施则包括提高社会福利的覆盖率、降低收入不平等、以及促进职业培训。\n（5）文化-来自于消费者价值观的影响\n不同国家之间的文化差异可能是导致不同的消费行为的重要原因。买什么，在哪里买，甚至怎么买，中国的消费者和西方国家的消费者，甚至亚洲其他国家的消费者的行为都可能不懂。\n虽然全球化为当代中国的生活方式带来了很多西方元素，但是我们仍然可以看到中国的消费者根植于中国独特的本地文化。\n1.非常看重家庭纽带，愿意为家庭成员提供相当大的金钱上的支持。\n2.消费的时候经常会有长远的目标。\n3.不同年龄层之间生活方式有显著的差异（比如在线平台的使用和外出旅行需求）\n\n可能的风险点：\n（1）针对集成技术平台的反垄断措施：服务相关消费的快速渗透和增长高度依赖于集成化的互联网技术平台。政府发布的反垄断政策旨在防止大型科技公司对市场的垄断，促进健康的市场竞争，但是过于激进的政策也有可能延宕服务相关消费的增长。\n（2）消费信贷的收紧：政策制定者最近升级了对互联网小贷和消费信贷平台的监管，但是我们认为对消费的影响应该不大，因为中国家庭资产负债表整体看上去还很健康。但是如果政策对消费信贷进一步收紧，甚至影响到银行渠道的话，那可能会对消费的增长形成负面影响。\n（3）相对迟缓的社会保障改革推进：我们相信更普遍和均匀的社保覆盖，尤其是在那些关键的都市圈里，会有效地降低人们为应对未来的不确定性而存起来的钱，从而促进消费。因此，在这些方面的改革的推进如果比预期要慢，则会影响消费潜力的释放。\n（4）针对大数据的隐私顾虑：中国拥有的一大优势是在建设智慧城市过程中在消费者数据收集方面面临较低的阻力。如果大众对数据隐私更加关注，或者国际间数据监管协调机制面临升级，则会导致对基于大数据分析的诸多新技术在消费领域应用的限制。不过，在新冠疫情期间个人定位技术和健康码的广泛应用在一定程度上提高了大众对大数据应用的的接受度，因此降低了这方面的风险。\n（5）无意中引发的社会问题：自动化和人工智能的广泛应用可能会导致比预想的要严重的失业问题，尤其是在建筑和低附加值制造领域。当然我们相信职业培训和快速增长的服务可以解决一部分问题，但是如果高科技的应用过快，失业导致的社会摩擦仍然有抑制消费增长的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
