Richard凉介 personal page - To The Moon

Richard凉介

Richard凉介

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2023-03-09

[开心]

@晚点LatePost:劉強東詳解京東低價戰略：一個共識、兩條公式和三大痛點

2021-08-23

1

@股市打野:8月23日：軍工買機彈，收益翻一番；醫藥加白酒，嗩吶吹一宿

2021-04-19

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-03

(^^)

Comparing Nio and Ideal Financial Report: Who is more ideal? Who has a future?

2021-01-11

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2020-11-19

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JPMorgan Chase's Latest Report: 64 Pictures Tell You the Full Picture of the Current Situation of US Stocks

2020-11-18

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@Tony特别帅:我怎麼覺得都會漲。。。

2020-09-17

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2020-06-26

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@小虎访谈:【虎友訪談】土澳留學的95後美女暢談如何學投資！

2020-06-08

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2020-06-08

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@妙投新经济:熱點解讀 | 陸正耀棄“車”保瑞幸，晚了

2020-06-08

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@小虎老师:【乾貨】港股打新看這篇就夠了

2020-05-14

?

@卡布斯说投资:你好蔚來，年收益20%

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管藝雯編輯丨管藝雯2023 年 2 月 1 日晚上，京東創始人劉強東在北京亦莊總部大廈組織了一場飯局，就在幾個小時前，他剛剛從境外落地北京，此前兩三年他不常回來。這也是 2020 年疫情之後，劉強東第一次線下和管培生見面吃飯。他教誨管培生們 “年輕人要沉得住氣”，一位當晚在現場的人士說，看得出來劉強東狀態不錯，當晚喝了不少酒。現場有人因叫他 “劉總” 而被罰酒，多年來，劉強東堅持公司內部稱呼他爲 “東哥”。此後幾天，劉強東又馬不停蹄地約見了多位京東中高管吃飯，和他們聊戰略、聊業務、聊如今京東面臨的挑戰。儘管這位創始人已退出業務一線，但他從未離開。去年底，劉強東通過一次徹底的組織調整和一場激烈的內部講話從上到下統一了共識，確定把 “低價戰略” 列爲京東零售未來三年最重要的戰略，百億補貼是這一戰略大方向下，京東零售最先打出的第一件利器。“今天京東在品牌方、零售行業地位的下降，本質是因爲其他渠道的快速增長。” 在 2022 年底的京東零售內部大會上，劉強東語氣嚴肅，三個多小時的講話中，“低價” 一詞出現了幾十次。京東集團 CEO 徐雷更是強調了低價戰略的刻不容緩，他對參會的六千多名採銷員工說，“今天我們堅定了要做低價，大家意志統一了，以後的改變特別多、特別難，但沒辦法，（低價）這條路，我們必須走下去。”京東在 2019 年選擇了 “向上走”，當時內部定下的最重要目標是 “實現有質量的增長”，搜索流量和資源都更傾向給利潤更高、價格更高的自營商品 —— 這也更符合京東 “正品行貨” 的調性。這一年劉強東也看到了下沉市場的機會，他帶隊在內部創業做社區團購項目，當時京東也推出了拼購業務 “京喜”，還進入了微信一級入口，但始終沒有舉全公司之力投入。也是在這一年，創始人黃崢在內部講話中稱拼多多真實交易 GMV（成交額）超過了京東。而根據兩","listText":"擁有共識，對此時此刻的京東來說，是最重要的。文丨陳晶 管藝雯編輯丨管藝雯2023 年 2 月 1 日晚上，京東創始人劉強東在北京亦莊總部大廈組織了一場飯局，就在幾個小時前，他剛剛從境外落地北京，此前兩三年他不常回來。這也是 2020 年疫情之後，劉強東第一次線下和管培生見面吃飯。他教誨管培生們 “年輕人要沉得住氣”，一位當晚在現場的人士說，看得出來劉強東狀態不錯，當晚喝了不少酒。現場有人因叫他 “劉總” 而被罰酒，多年來，劉強東堅持公司內部稱呼他爲 “東哥”。此後幾天，劉強東又馬不停蹄地約見了多位京東中高管吃飯，和他們聊戰略、聊業務、聊如今京東面臨的挑戰。儘管這位創始人已退出業務一線，但他從未離開。去年底，劉強東通過一次徹底的組織調整和一場激烈的內部講話從上到下統一了共識，確定把 “低價戰略” 列爲京東零售未來三年最重要的戰略，百億補貼是這一戰略大方向下，京東零售最先打出的第一件利器。“今天京東在品牌方、零售行業地位的下降，本質是因爲其他渠道的快速增長。” 在 2022 年底的京東零售內部大會上，劉強東語氣嚴肅，三個多小時的講話中，“低價” 一詞出現了幾十次。京東集團 CEO 徐雷更是強調了低價戰略的刻不容緩，他對參會的六千多名採銷員工說，“今天我們堅定了要做低價，大家意志統一了，以後的改變特別多、特別難，但沒辦法，（低價）這條路，我們必須走下去。”京東在 2019 年選擇了 “向上走”，當時內部定下的最重要目標是 “實現有質量的增長”，搜索流量和資源都更傾向給利潤更高、價格更高的自營商品 —— 這也更符合京東 “正品行貨” 的調性。這一年劉強東也看到了下沉市場的機會，他帶隊在內部創業做社區團購項目，當時京東也推出了拼購業務 “京喜”，還進入了微信一級入口，但始終沒有舉全公司之力投入。也是在這一年，創始人黃崢在內部講話中稱拼多多真實交易 GMV（成交額）超過了京東。而根據兩","text":"擁有共識，對此時此刻的京東來說，是最重要的。文丨陳晶 管藝雯編輯丨管藝雯2023 年 2 月 1 日晚上，京東創始人劉強東在北京亦莊總部大廈組織了一場飯局，就在幾個小時前，他剛剛從境外落地北京，此前兩三年他不常回來。這也是 2020 年疫情之後，劉強東第一次線下和管培生見面吃飯。他教誨管培生們 “年輕人要沉得住氣”，一位當晚在現場的人士說，看得出來劉強東狀態不錯，當晚喝了不少酒。現場有人因叫他 “劉總” 而被罰酒，多年來，劉強東堅持公司內部稱呼他爲 “東哥”。此後幾天，劉強東又馬不停蹄地約見了多位京東中高管吃飯，和他們聊戰略、聊業務、聊如今京東面臨的挑戰。儘管這位創始人已退出業務一線，但他從未離開。去年底，劉強東通過一次徹底的組織調整和一場激烈的內部講話從上到下統一了共識，確定把 “低價戰略” 列爲京東零售未來三年最重要的戰略，百億補貼是這一戰略大方向下，京東零售最先打出的第一件利器。“今天京東在品牌方、零售行業地位的下降，本質是因爲其他渠道的快速增長。” 在 2022 年底的京東零售內部大會上，劉強東語氣嚴肅，三個多小時的講話中，“低價” 一詞出現了幾十次。京東集團 CEO 徐雷更是強調了低價戰略的刻不容緩，他對參會的六千多名採銷員工說，“今天我們堅定了要做低價，大家意志統一了，以後的改變特別多、特別難，但沒辦法，（低價）這條路，我們必須走下去。”京東在 2019 年選擇了 “向上走”，當時內部定下的最重要目標是 “實現有質量的增長”，搜索流量和資源都更傾向給利潤更高、價格更高的自營商品 —— 這也更符合京東 “正品行貨” 的調性。這一年劉強東也看到了下沉市場的機會，他帶隊在內部創業做社區團購項目，當時京東也推出了拼購業務 “京喜”，還進入了微信一級入口，但始終沒有舉全公司之力投入。也是在這一年，創始人黃崢在內部講話中稱拼多多真實交易 GMV（成交額）超過了京東。而根據兩","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cdc25a35196a530be1c3013e42237a5","width":"1080","height":"675"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627228665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835242824,"gmtCreate":1629724285068,"gmtModify":1676530111704,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835242824","repostId":"832503152","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":832503152,"gmtCreate":1629647162776,"gmtModify":1676530085572,"author":{"id":"3548373961136253","authorId":"3548373961136253","name":"股市打野","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deafc8410717476bb1a942700f314f75","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548373961136253","idStr":"3548373961136253"},"themes":[],"title":"8月23日：軍工買機彈，收益翻一番；醫藥加白酒，嗩吶吹一宿","htmlText":"一、軍工行業將會和以往完全不同軍工行情主要的因素是“十四五”國防現代化建設，投資邏輯也從以往的事件催化變成以盈利改善爲預期。在1997年的規劃中提出2050年基本實現國防和軍隊現代化，在十九大中將該規劃提前到了2035年。這國防和軍隊現代化是一個什麼概念呢？可以參考海灣戰爭美軍的軍事配置，就是那樣一個程度。二、軍工投資主線軍工的需求主要偏計劃性，決定了對供應鏈可靠性和對產能投入計劃性高的要求，尤其是配套核心、供應核心裝備的環節和公司。基於全球空中力量全面競爭，多軍種軍機現代化建設將提速，中國各類軍機數量都和美、俄存在數量差異，美國目前軍機是我國4倍以上，未來增長空間較大。我國戰機主要以二代機和三代機爲主，而美國戰機主要以三代機和四代機爲主，且四代機裝列加速。今年我國軍隊加大實彈演練，導彈消化有所提升，高值消耗品導彈，現代化戰爭的主要手段，以及軍用電子元件如連接器、MLCC，關鍵材料如石英纖維、碳纖維、高溫合金等，將帶來結構性機會。三、導彈的三個邏輯1.導彈是後期武器平臺加速列裝的後周期品種2.實戰和訓練的高值消耗品3.未來信息化戰爭模式下，主要進攻武器<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002179\">$中航光電(002179)$</a>：國內防務領域連接器龍頭，公司生產連接器覆蓋航空、航天、艦船、兵器等多個領域，兼具產品競爭優勢，未來有望受益軍工需求釋放紅利。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300395\">$菲利華(300395)$</a>：國內唯一軍用石英纖維供應商，也是唯一獲得國際三大半導體原產設備商認證的石英材料企業，產品廣泛用於機載雷達罩、航天器隔熱和耐高溫結構上。主機廠：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">$中航沈飛(600760)$</a>","listText":"一、軍工行業將會和以往完全不同軍工行情主要的因素是“十四五”國防現代化建設，投資邏輯也從以往的事件催化變成以盈利改善爲預期。在1997年的規劃中提出2050年基本實現國防和軍隊現代化，在十九大中將該規劃提前到了2035年。這國防和軍隊現代化是一個什麼概念呢？可以參考海灣戰爭美軍的軍事配置，就是那樣一個程度。二、軍工投資主線軍工的需求主要偏計劃性，決定了對供應鏈可靠性和對產能投入計劃性高的要求，尤其是配套核心、供應核心裝備的環節和公司。基於全球空中力量全面競爭，多軍種軍機現代化建設將提速，中國各類軍機數量都和美、俄存在數量差異，美國目前軍機是我國4倍以上，未來增長空間較大。我國戰機主要以二代機和三代機爲主，而美國戰機主要以三代機和四代機爲主，且四代機裝列加速。今年我國軍隊加大實彈演練，導彈消化有所提升，高值消耗品導彈，現代化戰爭的主要手段，以及軍用電子元件如連接器、MLCC，關鍵材料如石英纖維、碳纖維、高溫合金等，將帶來結構性機會。三、導彈的三個邏輯1.導彈是後期武器平臺加速列裝的後周期品種2.實戰和訓練的高值消耗品3.未來信息化戰爭模式下，主要進攻武器<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002179\">$中航光電(002179)$</a>：國內防務領域連接器龍頭，公司生產連接器覆蓋航空、航天、艦船、兵器等多個領域，兼具產品競爭優勢，未來有望受益軍工需求釋放紅利。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300395\">$菲利華(300395)$</a>：國內唯一軍用石英纖維供應商，也是唯一獲得國際三大半導體原產設備商認證的石英材料企業，產品廣泛用於機載雷達罩、航天器隔熱和耐高溫結構上。主機廠：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">$中航沈飛(600760)$</a>","text":"一、軍工行業將會和以往完全不同軍工行情主要的因素是“十四五”國防現代化建設，投資邏輯也從以往的事件催化變成以盈利改善爲預期。在1997年的規劃中提出2050年基本實現國防和軍隊現代化，在十九大中將該規劃提前到了2035年。這國防和軍隊現代化是一個什麼概念呢？可以參考海灣戰爭美軍的軍事配置，就是那樣一個程度。二、軍工投資主線軍工的需求主要偏計劃性，決定了對供應鏈可靠性和對產能投入計劃性高的要求，尤其是配套核心、供應核心裝備的環節和公司。基於全球空中力量全面競爭，多軍種軍機現代化建設將提速，中國各類軍機數量都和美、俄存在數量差異，美國目前軍機是我國4倍以上，未來增長空間較大。我國戰機主要以二代機和三代機爲主，而美國戰機主要以三代機和四代機爲主，且四代機裝列加速。今年我國軍隊加大實彈演練，導彈消化有所提升，高值消耗品導彈，現代化戰爭的主要手段，以及軍用電子元件如連接器、MLCC，關鍵材料如石英纖維、碳纖維、高溫合金等，將帶來結構性機會。三、導彈的三個邏輯1.導彈是後期武器平臺加速列裝的後周期品種2.實戰和訓練的高值消耗品3.未來信息化戰爭模式下，主要進攻武器$中航光電(002179)$：國內防務領域連接器龍頭，公司生產連接器覆蓋航空、航天、艦船、兵器等多個領域，兼具產品競爭優勢，未來有望受益軍工需求釋放紅利。$菲利華(300395)$：國內唯一軍用石英纖維供應商，也是唯一獲得國際三大半導體原產設備商認證的石英材料企業，產品廣泛用於機載雷達罩、航天器隔熱和耐高溫結構上。主機廠：$中航沈飛(600760)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832503152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373021804,"gmtCreate":1618804603208,"gmtModify":1704715098981,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373021804","repostId":"2126903749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365168284,"gmtCreate":1614704000748,"gmtModify":1704774331431,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"(^^)","listText":"(^^)","text":"(^^)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365168284","repostId":"1189134615","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189134615","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614672943,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189134615?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-02 16:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Comparing Nio and Ideal Financial Report: Who is more ideal? Who has a future?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189134615","media":" 车云","summary":"回顾2020年，造车新势力在资本市场的“故事”，引来越来越多关注。受新能源及美股普遍向好的风向，特斯拉一度成为美国市值排名第五的上市企业。同时，蔚来、理想、小鹏三家国内在美股上市的企业市值也纷纷上涨，","content":"<p>Looking back at 2020, the \"story\" of new car-making forces in the capital market has attracted more and more attention. Affected by the generally positive trend of new energy and US stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It once became the fifth-largest listed company in the United States by market capitalization. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The market value of three domestic companies listed on the US stock market, Ideal and XPeng, has also risen one after another, even surpassing a number of established traditional enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44e382d2cd949146c84687aa02218e02\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A few days ago, two new car manufacturers in China successively handed in their report cards. From the results, both new car manufacturers showed revenue growth, narrowing losses and improving gross profit. On March 2, after the U.S. stock market closed, Nio Motors released its fourth quarter 2020 financial report and its unaudited financial report for the full year. According to the financial report, in 2020, the annual revenue of Nio Automobile increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin turned positive for the first time.</p><p>Compared with Nio, which has been delivered for nearly 3 years, it has only been delivered for 1 year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>A few days ago, it also handed over its first complete annual financial report, and set a number of records of new forces in China: the fastest positive gross profit, the fastest cumulative delivery exceeded 40,000, and the first net profit turned positive... From the results, Li Auto, as a latecomer, has a tendency to catch up with Nio.</p><p>Nio deliveries increased by 112.6% year-on-year, and Ideal launches pure-electric models in 2 years</p><p>According to the financial report, Nio delivered more than 43,700 vehicles in 2020 and about 20,500 vehicles in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%.</p><p>Compared with 2019, the sales of vehicles in Nio have increased significantly.</p><p>At the beginning of 2020, affected by the pandemic, Nio vehicles sold 3,838 units in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the delivery of vehicles in Nio increased sharply one after another, including 10,331 units delivered in the second quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 190%; 12,206 units were delivered in the third quarter, up 154% year-on-year; 17,353 units were delivered in the fourth quarter, up 111% year-over-year.</p><p>According to the analysis, there are three key factors behind the strong market performance of Nio vehicles: First, Nio has EC6, ES6 and the new ES8 delivered, and its product matrix is relatively rich and occupies more market segments; Second, under the background of consumption upgrading, Nio focuses on high-end<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Route, products more in line with market demand and more competitive; Third, the new models of new brands such as Tesla and Nio in sales and after-sales have been increasingly recognized by the market, and even attracted many traditional car companies to follow suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4007b81bc735b4da5bf58d818f23f22c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Nio automotive products are continuously expanding. On January 9 this year, Nio unveiled its first mass-produced brand flagship sedan, the ET7. Li Bin, chairman of Nio Motors, said: \"The ET7 will be delivered next year, and of course there is still a lot of preparation work, especially in the AD part, where we have enough testing and development to carry out.\"</p><p>In terms of deliveries so far, Li Auto follows Nio Motors.</p><p>According to the financial report of Li Auto, a total of 32,600 Ideal One were delivered in 2020, which is second only to Nio Motors and ranks second in the sales volume of start-up car companies. On February 18, 2021, the total delivery volume of Ideal One exceeded 40,000 units. Compared with Nio, Ideal is a latecomer, which only began to deliver Ideal One at the end of 2019. According to the official statement, the ideal delivery scale has already set a record for the fastest delivery of start-up car companies.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the Ideal One is an extended-range EV that falls into the category of plug-in hybrids. After the start of this year, a new regulation issued by Shanghai has brought some instability to Li Auto.</p><p>On February 10, 2021, the Shanghai Municipal Government issued the Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles in Shanghai, stating that as of January 1, 2023, free exclusive license plates will no longer be issued to consumers who purchase plug-in hybrid vehicles. In other words, the ideal range-extended models will no longer enjoy the license-free discount. In addition, Beijing's new energy vehicle index is only distributed to pure electric models.</p><p>Next, Li Auto will change its single technology path.</p><p>It is understood that Li Xiang, founder of Li Auto, once issued an internal letter of the company, in which it was proposed that in the next ten years, Li Auto will promote two technical routes of extended range and pure electric in parallel. On February 25, Li Xiang said in an earnings call that the company will launch two models every year starting in 2022. At present, Li Auto is revamping its Changzhou factory to suit the needs of a new SUV model, which will be launched on the market in 2022. The first pure electric vehicle will be delivered in 2023, and the pure electric model will be considered for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>Why is Nio net loss nearly 34 times higher than ideal?</p><p>From the perspective of profit and loss performance, revenue is bundled with delivery, and both Ideal and Nio have achieved a substantial increase in revenue. However, at the same time, neither company has completely gotten rid of the status quo of loss, and from the financial data of 2020, the net loss of Nio Motors is nearly 34 times higher than that of Li Auto.</p><p>Could it be that Nio, which is better at selling cars, is not as profitable as Ideal?</p><p>In addition to the breakthrough in delivery volume, the ideal strong profit is a bright spot. According to the financial report, the annual revenue in 2020 was 9.3 billion yuan, and the company's gross profit margin was 16.4%. Weilai Automobile's annual revenue in 2020 was 16.257.9 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 11.5% and a gross profit margin of 12.7% for a single bicycle.</p><p>Compared with Nio, although the total revenue of Li Auto is smaller, the ideal gross profit margin is 4.9% higher than that of Nio. Simply put, the ideal is more profitable. Although Ideal has not yet achieved full-year profit, the loss situation has improved. In 2020, the net loss was 152 million yuan, but compared with the loss of 2.44 billion yuan in 2019, it was significantly narrowed.</p><p>In contrast, the loss situation for Nio seems much grimmer.</p><p>In 2020, Nio Automobile recorded a net loss of 5.304 billion yuan. Although its net loss is quite large compared with Li Auto, it has narrowed significantly compared with the previous two years. The data shows that from 2017 to 2019, the net losses of Nio were 4.985 billion yuan, 9.639 billion yuan and 11.298 billion yuan respectively. Because of the net loss exceeding 10 billion in 2019, Li Bin was once rated as \"the worst person in 2019\" by the outside world. Since 2016, Nio has accumulated a net loss of 33.7 billion yuan in the past.</p><p>According to the analysis, marketing, selling and administrative expenses and research and development expenses are still important expenditures in Nio, but they all decreased in 2020. This is also a big reason why Nio Motors' losses narrowed in 2020.</p><p>From the data point of view, in 2020, the marketing, sales and management expenses of Nio were 3.932 billion yuan, down from 5.451 billion yuan in 2019; R&D expenditure in 2020 was 2.488 billion yuan, down nearly half from 4.428 billion yuan in 2019.</p><p>The analysis points out that the breakthrough of ideal loss narrowing and net profit turning positive is precisely due to its strict control of operating expenses and a large amount of additional income brought by interest and investment. However, the gross profit margin, which can better reflect the cost management and efficiency control of the ideal car manufacturing link, has actually declined.</p><p>From a positive point of view, Li Auto has still achieved a sharp increase in sales without investing a lot in marketing. For example, Ideal pays great attention to efficient management style, and for example, with the increase of scale effect, it may further share costs and expenses. However, in the long run, it is not a long-term solution to offset the decline in gross profit levels only by reducing spending and higher investment returns.</p><p>In addition, in terms of R&D, the R&D investment of Nio vehicles is higher than that of Li Auto.</p><p>According to the data, in 2020, the R&D investment expenditure in Li Auto totaled 1.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 70 million yuan compared with 1.17 billion yuan in 2019, accounting for about 11.6% of the total operating income. NIO's annual R&D expenses in 2020 reached 2.49 billion yuan. From 2016 to 2020, in the past five years, Nio spent 23.814 billion yuan on research and development.</p><p>In addition, Li Bin said at the 2020 Q4 earnings conference call held recently that Nio will firmly increase R&D investment and speed up the R&D and mass production of core technologies and new models. R&D investment in 2021 is expected to double to about 5 billion yuan.</p><p>Expand channels, wherever there is BBA, there must be Nio</p><p>Next, Nio Motors will continue to expand its market territory.</p><p>\"We will start sales and service in Europe this year. The team is in the process of being built, and it is currently advancing according to the plan. The preparation of products, the preparation of sales and service networks, the preparation of teams, and all aspects of preparation are being done.\" Li Bin said: \"This is not done in one day. From the perspective of NIO, we established our R&D team in Europe and the United States on the first day. We have the management ability of a global team. We still know that it is a great job to enter the global market for consumer services.\"</p><p>Separately, NIO Motors will continue to build NIO House. However, NIO Motors said last year that NIO House is less cost-effective.</p><p>In the view of Feng Wei, CFO of NIO, compared with cost, the brand influence brought by NIO House to NIO is more important. Feng Wei believes: \"NIO House is an important order conversion channel, which helps to enhance brand awareness, expand user contact points and promote sales conversion; At the same time, it has a strong brand communication function. Under the background of rapid growth of sales revenue, we believe that increasing certain investment in brand communication is conducive to the long-term interests of brand and sales; NIO House is also an important place for user system and community operation, providing activity space for users' offline connection and brand promotion.\"</p><p>At the same time, the cost of NIO House is gradually being controlled. Feng Wei said: \"We have accumulated rich experience in the process of operating offline networks in the past, and have a stronger ability to control site selection, planning and cost-effectiveness. The investment amount and operating cost required for a single store are much lower than the original level. A reference figure is that at present, the average single store investment is 40% of the original investment, while the rent and operating cost are 50% of the original.\"</p><p>It is reported that NIO Motors increased the coverage of NIO Space last year, and has now covered 121 cities across the country. Li Bin revealed: \"This year, we will add another 20 NIO houses and 120 NIO spaces. We have a basic strategy. Cities with Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi 4S stores will build an offline store. This is our basic strategy.\"</p><p>At the same time, Li Auto is also strengthening the construction of sales channels. According to Shen Yanan, co-founder and president of Li Auto, channel construction has entered the second strategic stage, and it is adjusting its retail store expansion strategy. It is planned to achieve 200 retail stores covering 100 cities in 2021.</p><p>According to the financial report, as of January 31, 2021, Li Auto had 60 retail stores covering 47 cities, as well as 121 service centers and authorized repair points in 89 cities.</p><p>From the current point of view, it is worthy of recognition that, regardless of Nio or ideal, as the representative of China's new car-making forces, they have stepped out of the PPT era, and mass-produced cars have begun to accept the test of the market, and they have made good use of capital power to make waves in the stock market. Besides creating better financing conditions for new power enterprises themselves, for the capital market that \"buys the future\", the performance of its market value is actually the affirmation of the development direction of new car-making forces by capital.</p><p>Judging from the current financial situation of the two enterprises, it is difficult to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the two enterprises by virtue of their temporary financial performance due to the differences in technical paths and business models adopted by the two enterprises. At the same time, the two are also facing different tests. For NIO, how to reduce operating costs and reverse losses on the premise of ensuring R&D is the key.</p><p>For Li Auto, although it got the \"ticket\" through extended-range vehicles, it will also face the pressure of huge R&D investment if it develops pure electric vehicles since then. In addition, how to achieve differentiated competition and compete with brands such as Tesla and Nio for pure electric products that Li Auto will push in two years is an ideal question to be answered.</p>","source":"lsy1580893187135","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Comparing Nio and Ideal Financial Report: Who is more ideal? 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Who has a future?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 车云</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-02 16:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Looking back at 2020, the \"story\" of new car-making forces in the capital market has attracted more and more attention. Affected by the generally positive trend of new energy and US stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It once became the fifth-largest listed company in the United States by market capitalization. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The market value of three domestic companies listed on the US stock market, Ideal and XPeng, has also risen one after another, even surpassing a number of established traditional enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44e382d2cd949146c84687aa02218e02\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A few days ago, two new car manufacturers in China successively handed in their report cards. From the results, both new car manufacturers showed revenue growth, narrowing losses and improving gross profit. On March 2, after the U.S. stock market closed, Nio Motors released its fourth quarter 2020 financial report and its unaudited financial report for the full year. According to the financial report, in 2020, the annual revenue of Nio Automobile increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin turned positive for the first time.</p><p>Compared with Nio, which has been delivered for nearly 3 years, it has only been delivered for 1 year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>A few days ago, it also handed over its first complete annual financial report, and set a number of records of new forces in China: the fastest positive gross profit, the fastest cumulative delivery exceeded 40,000, and the first net profit turned positive... From the results, Li Auto, as a latecomer, has a tendency to catch up with Nio.</p><p>Nio deliveries increased by 112.6% year-on-year, and Ideal launches pure-electric models in 2 years</p><p>According to the financial report, Nio delivered more than 43,700 vehicles in 2020 and about 20,500 vehicles in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%.</p><p>Compared with 2019, the sales of vehicles in Nio have increased significantly.</p><p>At the beginning of 2020, affected by the pandemic, Nio vehicles sold 3,838 units in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the delivery of vehicles in Nio increased sharply one after another, including 10,331 units delivered in the second quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 190%; 12,206 units were delivered in the third quarter, up 154% year-on-year; 17,353 units were delivered in the fourth quarter, up 111% year-over-year.</p><p>According to the analysis, there are three key factors behind the strong market performance of Nio vehicles: First, Nio has EC6, ES6 and the new ES8 delivered, and its product matrix is relatively rich and occupies more market segments; Second, under the background of consumption upgrading, Nio focuses on high-end<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Route, products more in line with market demand and more competitive; Third, the new models of new brands such as Tesla and Nio in sales and after-sales have been increasingly recognized by the market, and even attracted many traditional car companies to follow suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4007b81bc735b4da5bf58d818f23f22c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Nio automotive products are continuously expanding. On January 9 this year, Nio unveiled its first mass-produced brand flagship sedan, the ET7. Li Bin, chairman of Nio Motors, said: \"The ET7 will be delivered next year, and of course there is still a lot of preparation work, especially in the AD part, where we have enough testing and development to carry out.\"</p><p>In terms of deliveries so far, Li Auto follows Nio Motors.</p><p>According to the financial report of Li Auto, a total of 32,600 Ideal One were delivered in 2020, which is second only to Nio Motors and ranks second in the sales volume of start-up car companies. On February 18, 2021, the total delivery volume of Ideal One exceeded 40,000 units. Compared with Nio, Ideal is a latecomer, which only began to deliver Ideal One at the end of 2019. According to the official statement, the ideal delivery scale has already set a record for the fastest delivery of start-up car companies.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the Ideal One is an extended-range EV that falls into the category of plug-in hybrids. After the start of this year, a new regulation issued by Shanghai has brought some instability to Li Auto.</p><p>On February 10, 2021, the Shanghai Municipal Government issued the Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles in Shanghai, stating that as of January 1, 2023, free exclusive license plates will no longer be issued to consumers who purchase plug-in hybrid vehicles. In other words, the ideal range-extended models will no longer enjoy the license-free discount. In addition, Beijing's new energy vehicle index is only distributed to pure electric models.</p><p>Next, Li Auto will change its single technology path.</p><p>It is understood that Li Xiang, founder of Li Auto, once issued an internal letter of the company, in which it was proposed that in the next ten years, Li Auto will promote two technical routes of extended range and pure electric in parallel. On February 25, Li Xiang said in an earnings call that the company will launch two models every year starting in 2022. At present, Li Auto is revamping its Changzhou factory to suit the needs of a new SUV model, which will be launched on the market in 2022. The first pure electric vehicle will be delivered in 2023, and the pure electric model will be considered for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>Why is Nio net loss nearly 34 times higher than ideal?</p><p>From the perspective of profit and loss performance, revenue is bundled with delivery, and both Ideal and Nio have achieved a substantial increase in revenue. However, at the same time, neither company has completely gotten rid of the status quo of loss, and from the financial data of 2020, the net loss of Nio Motors is nearly 34 times higher than that of Li Auto.</p><p>Could it be that Nio, which is better at selling cars, is not as profitable as Ideal?</p><p>In addition to the breakthrough in delivery volume, the ideal strong profit is a bright spot. According to the financial report, the annual revenue in 2020 was 9.3 billion yuan, and the company's gross profit margin was 16.4%. Weilai Automobile's annual revenue in 2020 was 16.257.9 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 11.5% and a gross profit margin of 12.7% for a single bicycle.</p><p>Compared with Nio, although the total revenue of Li Auto is smaller, the ideal gross profit margin is 4.9% higher than that of Nio. Simply put, the ideal is more profitable. Although Ideal has not yet achieved full-year profit, the loss situation has improved. In 2020, the net loss was 152 million yuan, but compared with the loss of 2.44 billion yuan in 2019, it was significantly narrowed.</p><p>In contrast, the loss situation for Nio seems much grimmer.</p><p>In 2020, Nio Automobile recorded a net loss of 5.304 billion yuan. Although its net loss is quite large compared with Li Auto, it has narrowed significantly compared with the previous two years. The data shows that from 2017 to 2019, the net losses of Nio were 4.985 billion yuan, 9.639 billion yuan and 11.298 billion yuan respectively. Because of the net loss exceeding 10 billion in 2019, Li Bin was once rated as \"the worst person in 2019\" by the outside world. Since 2016, Nio has accumulated a net loss of 33.7 billion yuan in the past.</p><p>According to the analysis, marketing, selling and administrative expenses and research and development expenses are still important expenditures in Nio, but they all decreased in 2020. This is also a big reason why Nio Motors' losses narrowed in 2020.</p><p>From the data point of view, in 2020, the marketing, sales and management expenses of Nio were 3.932 billion yuan, down from 5.451 billion yuan in 2019; R&D expenditure in 2020 was 2.488 billion yuan, down nearly half from 4.428 billion yuan in 2019.</p><p>The analysis points out that the breakthrough of ideal loss narrowing and net profit turning positive is precisely due to its strict control of operating expenses and a large amount of additional income brought by interest and investment. However, the gross profit margin, which can better reflect the cost management and efficiency control of the ideal car manufacturing link, has actually declined.</p><p>From a positive point of view, Li Auto has still achieved a sharp increase in sales without investing a lot in marketing. For example, Ideal pays great attention to efficient management style, and for example, with the increase of scale effect, it may further share costs and expenses. However, in the long run, it is not a long-term solution to offset the decline in gross profit levels only by reducing spending and higher investment returns.</p><p>In addition, in terms of R&D, the R&D investment of Nio vehicles is higher than that of Li Auto.</p><p>According to the data, in 2020, the R&D investment expenditure in Li Auto totaled 1.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 70 million yuan compared with 1.17 billion yuan in 2019, accounting for about 11.6% of the total operating income. NIO's annual R&D expenses in 2020 reached 2.49 billion yuan. From 2016 to 2020, in the past five years, Nio spent 23.814 billion yuan on research and development.</p><p>In addition, Li Bin said at the 2020 Q4 earnings conference call held recently that Nio will firmly increase R&D investment and speed up the R&D and mass production of core technologies and new models. R&D investment in 2021 is expected to double to about 5 billion yuan.</p><p>Expand channels, wherever there is BBA, there must be Nio</p><p>Next, Nio Motors will continue to expand its market territory.</p><p>\"We will start sales and service in Europe this year. The team is in the process of being built, and it is currently advancing according to the plan. The preparation of products, the preparation of sales and service networks, the preparation of teams, and all aspects of preparation are being done.\" Li Bin said: \"This is not done in one day. From the perspective of NIO, we established our R&D team in Europe and the United States on the first day. We have the management ability of a global team. We still know that it is a great job to enter the global market for consumer services.\"</p><p>Separately, NIO Motors will continue to build NIO House. However, NIO Motors said last year that NIO House is less cost-effective.</p><p>In the view of Feng Wei, CFO of NIO, compared with cost, the brand influence brought by NIO House to NIO is more important. Feng Wei believes: \"NIO House is an important order conversion channel, which helps to enhance brand awareness, expand user contact points and promote sales conversion; At the same time, it has a strong brand communication function. Under the background of rapid growth of sales revenue, we believe that increasing certain investment in brand communication is conducive to the long-term interests of brand and sales; NIO House is also an important place for user system and community operation, providing activity space for users' offline connection and brand promotion.\"</p><p>At the same time, the cost of NIO House is gradually being controlled. Feng Wei said: \"We have accumulated rich experience in the process of operating offline networks in the past, and have a stronger ability to control site selection, planning and cost-effectiveness. The investment amount and operating cost required for a single store are much lower than the original level. A reference figure is that at present, the average single store investment is 40% of the original investment, while the rent and operating cost are 50% of the original.\"</p><p>It is reported that NIO Motors increased the coverage of NIO Space last year, and has now covered 121 cities across the country. Li Bin revealed: \"This year, we will add another 20 NIO houses and 120 NIO spaces. We have a basic strategy. Cities with Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi 4S stores will build an offline store. This is our basic strategy.\"</p><p>At the same time, Li Auto is also strengthening the construction of sales channels. According to Shen Yanan, co-founder and president of Li Auto, channel construction has entered the second strategic stage, and it is adjusting its retail store expansion strategy. It is planned to achieve 200 retail stores covering 100 cities in 2021.</p><p>According to the financial report, as of January 31, 2021, Li Auto had 60 retail stores covering 47 cities, as well as 121 service centers and authorized repair points in 89 cities.</p><p>From the current point of view, it is worthy of recognition that, regardless of Nio or ideal, as the representative of China's new car-making forces, they have stepped out of the PPT era, and mass-produced cars have begun to accept the test of the market, and they have made good use of capital power to make waves in the stock market. Besides creating better financing conditions for new power enterprises themselves, for the capital market that \"buys the future\", the performance of its market value is actually the affirmation of the development direction of new car-making forces by capital.</p><p>Judging from the current financial situation of the two enterprises, it is difficult to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the two enterprises by virtue of their temporary financial performance due to the differences in technical paths and business models adopted by the two enterprises. At the same time, the two are also facing different tests. For NIO, how to reduce operating costs and reverse losses on the premise of ensuring R&D is the key.</p><p>For Li Auto, although it got the \"ticket\" through extended-range vehicles, it will also face the pressure of huge R&D investment if it develops pure electric vehicles since then. In addition, how to achieve differentiated competition and compete with brands such as Tesla and Nio for pure electric products that Li Auto will push in two years is an ideal question to be answered.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bMgeQaazbRsDYv6f-Fdf2A\"> 车云</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44e382d2cd949146c84687aa02218e02","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bMgeQaazbRsDYv6f-Fdf2A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189134615","content_text":"回顾2020年，造车新势力在资本市场的“故事”，引来越来越多关注。受新能源及美股普遍向好的风向，特斯拉一度成为美国市值排名第五的上市企业。同时，蔚来、理想、小鹏三家国内在美股上市的企业市值也纷纷上涨，甚至超越一众老牌传统造成企业。日前，国内两家造车新势力企业相继交上成绩单，从结果上看，两家新造车企业都呈现出营收增长，亏损收窄，毛利转好的表现。3月2日，美股收盘后，蔚来汽车发布了2020年第四季度财报及全年未经审计财报。根据财报显示，2020年蔚来汽车全年营收同比劲增超过100%，且毛利率实现首次转正。相比开启交付已近3年的蔚来，实现交付仅1年的理想汽车也于日前交出首份完整年度财报，并创下了国内新势力的多项记录：最快实现正向毛利，最快实现累计交付破四万，率先做到了净利转正……从结果上看，作为后来者的理想汽车颇有赶超蔚来之势。蔚来交付量同增112.6%，理想2年后推纯电车型根据财报显示，2020年，蔚来交付汽车超过4.37万台，2019年交付汽车约2.05万台，同比增长112.6%。相比2019年，蔚来汽车销量增势明显。2020年开年，受疫情影响，蔚来汽车一季度销量为3838台，同比下滑3.7%。伴随疫情好转，蔚来汽车交付接连大幅攀升，其中第二季度交付10331台，同比增长190%；第三季度交付12206台，同比增长154%；第四季度交付17353台，同比增长111%。分析认为，蔚来汽车强劲的市场表现背后有三点关键因素：其一，蔚来旗下有EC6、ES6和新款ES8交付，其产品矩阵相对丰富且占据更多的细分市场；其二，在消费升级的背景下，蔚来主打高端豪华路线，更贴合市场需求产品也更具竞争力；其三，以特斯拉、蔚来等新势力品牌在销售、售后等方面的新模式得到市场越来越多的认可，甚至引来不少传统车企的效仿。另外，蔚来汽车产品还在持续扩容。今年1月9日，蔚来发布了旗下首款量产品牌旗舰轿车ET7。蔚来汽车董事长李斌表示：“ET7明年交付，当然还有非常多的准备工作F，特别是在AD这一部分，我们还要进行足够多的测试和开发。”从目前的交付量上看，理想汽车紧随蔚来汽车。根据理想汽车的财报显示，2020年理想One共交付3.26万辆，这一数据仅次于蔚来汽车，位列初创车企销量亚军。2021年2月18日，理想One总交付量破4万辆。相比蔚来，理想当属后来者，其在2019年末才开始交付理想One。据官方的说法，理想交付规模已然创下初创车企最快交付纪录。然而值得注意的是，理想One是一款增程式电动汽车，属于插电式混合动力汽车范畴。而今年开年后，上海发布的一条新规给理想汽车带来了些许不稳定因素。2021年2月10日，上海市政府发布《上海市鼓励购买和使用新能源汽车实施办法》，称自2023年1月1日起，将不再向购买插电式混动汽车的消费者发放免费专用牌照。也就是说，理想增程式车型将不再享有免拍牌优惠。另外，北京新能源汽车指标也仅向纯电车型发放。接下来，理想汽车将改变其单一技术路径。据了解，理想汽车创始人李想曾发出公司内部信，其中提出在未来十年，理想汽车会并行推进增程式和纯电动两条技术路线。2月25日，李想在财报电话会议上称，从2022年起，每年公司将推出两款车型。当前理想汽车正在对常州工厂进行改造，适应一款SUV新车型需要，该车型将于 2022 年投放市场。首款纯电动汽车将在2023年交付，纯电动车型将考虑搭载磷酸铁锂电池。蔚来净亏损为何比理想高近34倍？从盈亏表现上看，营收与交付捆绑，理想、蔚来都双双实现了营收的大幅增长，但同时，两家企业都尚未完全摆脱亏损的现状，且从2020年的财务数据上看，蔚来汽车的净亏损竟比理想汽车高出近34倍。难道，更会卖车的蔚来汽车不如理想会赚钱？除了交付量的突破，理想较强的盈利是一大亮点。根据财报显示示，2020年全年营收93亿元，全年公司毛利率16.4%。而蔚来汽车2020 全年营收162.579亿元，毛利率 11.5%，全年单车毛利率 12.7%。相比蔚来，理想汽车总营收虽然较少，但理想的毛利率相比蔚来高出4.9%，简单来说就是理想更赚钱。 虽然眼下理想尚未实现全年盈利，但亏损情况已呈现好转，2020年净亏损1.52亿元，但相比2019年24.4亿元的亏损额大幅收窄。相比之下，蔚来汽车的亏损情况似乎要严峻得多。2020年，蔚来汽车净亏损为53.04亿元。虽然相比理想汽车其净亏额颇大，但较前两年大幅收窄。数据显示：2017—2019年，蔚来的净亏损分别为49.85亿元、96.39亿元、112.98亿元。由于2019年净亏超百亿，李斌曾被外界评为“2019年最惨的人”。自2016年以来，蔚来过去累计净亏损达337亿元。分析认为，市场、销售和管理费用以及研发费用仍然是蔚来的重要支出，不过2020年均有所减少。这也是2020年蔚来汽车亏损收窄的一个重要原因。从数据上看，2020年，蔚来的市场、销售和管理费用为39.32亿元，低于2019年的54.51亿元；2020年研发支出为24.88亿元，较2019年的44.28亿元减少近一半。分析指出，理想亏损收窄，净利润转正的突破，则恰恰是得益于其对经营费用的严格把控，以及利息及投资带来的大量额外收入。但更能反应理想造车环节的成本管理、效率管控的毛利率，实际上却出现了下滑。从利好的层面来看，理想汽车没有大额投入市场营销的情况下，依然实现了销量的大幅攀升，比如理想极其讲究效率经营风格，还比如随着规模效应增强还可能进一步分摊成本与费用。但从长远来看，如果仅靠缩减开支与更高的投资收益，来抵消毛利水平的下跌，并不是一个长久之计。另外，在研发方面，蔚来汽车的研发投入高于理想汽车。数据显示，2020年，理想汽车研发投资支出共计11亿元，相比2019年的11.7亿元减少了7000万元，占营业总收入的比例约为11.6%。而蔚来汽车在2020年的全年研发费用达 24.9 亿元。从2016年到2020年，在过去5年的时间里，蔚来汽车花费在研发上的费用就高达238.14亿元。另外，李斌在日前举办的2020年Q4财报电话会上表示，蔚来会坚定地加大研发投入，提速核心技术和新车型的研发和量产工作，2021年的研发投入预计将增加一倍，达到50亿人民币左右。扩建渠道，有BBA的地方都要有蔚来接下来，蔚来汽车还将继续做大市场版图。“我们今年会在欧洲开始进行销售和服务，团队正在搭建的过程中，目前正在按照计划在推进，产品的准备、销售服务网络的准备、团队的准备，各方面的准备都在做”，李斌表示：“这个不是一天来做的，从NIO来讲，我们第一天就在欧洲、美国建立我们研发的团队，我们具备全球团队的管理能力，我们仍然知道进入全球市场消费服务是很大的工作。”另外，蔚来汽车将继续增建NIO House。然而，蔚来汽车曾在去年表示：NIO House 的费效比较低。在蔚来CFO奉玮看来，相比成本，NIO House对蔚来带来的品牌影响力更为重要。奉玮认为：“NIO House是重要的订单转化渠道，有助于提升品牌知名度，扩大用户触点，促进销售转化；同时具备极强的品牌传播功能，在销售收入快速增长的背景下我们认为增加一定的品牌传播投入有利于品牌和销售的长期利益；NIO House也是重要的用户体系和社区运营的场所，为用户的线下连接和品牌宣传提供了活动空间。”同时，NIO House的成本也在逐渐得到控制。奉玮表示：“我们在过去运营线下网络过程中积累了丰富经验，对选址、规划、费效的把控能力更强，单店所需的投资金额和运营成本都大大低于原来的水平。一个参考数字是，目前平均单店投资是原来的投资的40%，而租金和运营成本是原来的50%。”据悉，蔚来汽车在去年加大了NIO Space的覆盖，目前已经覆盖了全国121个城市。李斌透露：“今年会再增加20个NIO House和120个蔚来空间，我们有一个基本的策略，有奔驰、宝马、奥迪4S店的城市，都会去建一个线下的门店，这是我们基本的策略。”同时，理想汽车也在加强销售渠道建设。据理想汽车联合创始人兼总裁沈亚楠表示，渠道建设已经进入第二战略阶段，正在调整零售店扩展策略，计划2021年实现200家零售店覆盖100个城市。据财报显示，截至2021年1月31日，理想汽车拥有60家零售店，覆盖47个城市，还拥有121家服务中心和在89个城市设有授权维修点。从目前来看，值得肯定的是，无论蔚来还是理想，作为中国的造车新势力的代表，已经走出了 PPT时代，量产车开始接受市场的检验，并且善用资本力量的它们在股市掀起风浪，除了为新势力企业自身创造了更好的融资条件，对于“购买未来”的资本市场来说，其市值的表现实则是资本对造车新势力发展方向的肯定。从两家企业目前公布的财务状况来看，两者皆以由于两家企业所采取的技术路径、商业模式存在不同，凭借一时的财务表现很难评价两者的优劣。同时，两者也面临着不同的考验。对蔚来汽车来说，如何在保障研发的前提下，缩减经营成本扭转亏损是关键。对理想汽车来说，虽然通过增程式汽车拿到了“入场券”，但此后若开发纯电动汽车也同样要面对巨额研发投入的压力。另外，理想汽车将在两年后推的纯电动产品，如何实现差异化竞争，与特斯拉、蔚来等品牌同场竞技，是理想需要回答的问题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332364454,"gmtCreate":1610339709878,"gmtModify":1704982980092,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332364454","repostId":"1140016925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":390211708,"gmtCreate":1605798446504,"gmtModify":1704962405308,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/390211708","repostId":"1199570467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199570467","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605784535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199570467?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-19 19:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan Chase's Latest Report: 64 Pictures Tell You the Full Picture of the Current Situation of US Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199570467","media":"杰晶维基","summary":"导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下","content":"<p>Introduction: JP Morgan Asset Management's Guide to Markets report series is an article we must read and will definitely translate. In this illustrated report, it clearly describes the position of the global asset classes and the US stock market, as well as the main contradictions in the current market. Here is our full-text translation of the JP Morgan Guide To Markets for the third quarter, which we hope will help you.</p><p>Article Source | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020</p><p><b>Third Quarter 2020 Market Guide</b></p><p><b>Stock Market</b></p><p>The S&P 500 at the inflection point: The S&P 500 rose 401% from its low on March 9, 2009 to its high on February 19, 2020, and then fell 8% so far (June 30, 2020)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p><p>S&P 500 valuation was 21.72X on June 30, 2020, and its average valuation level over the past 25 years was 16.39X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>P/E and Stock Return</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Earnings in all sectors of the S&P 500 Index declined year-on-year in 2020H1, with the energy market seeing the biggest decline</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Source of EPS growth: 2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS growth was-48.7% annualized, with profit margin growth of 47.3% annualized among the three contributing factors, which was the main reason for negative EPS growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Value VS Growth: Value VS Growth Yield of 0.97 in 2020H1, Value Index Macro has 56.1% of individual stocks with a beta greater than 1</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Different Styles of Earnings and Valuations: On a quarterly basis, the type with small market cap and high growth earned the best, reaching 30.6%; On an annual basis, the type with large market capitalization and high growth performed the best, reaching 9.8%, followed by the medium market capitalization with high growth, at 4.2%, and the other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Earnings and valuations of different sectors: In terms of quarter, the consumer sector is the best, reaching 32.9%; On an annual basis, the technology sector performed the best at 15%, followed by the consumer sector at 7.2%, and all other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Factor Performance: The momentum factor had the best return from 2005 to 2019, reaching 11%, followed by the low volatility factor at 10.2%, and the small market cap factor had the lowest return at 7.9%, with the largest volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p><p>Annualized earnings and pullback during the year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Market volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The probability of a bear market and a subsequent bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>The stock market since 1990</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><b>Macroeconomic market</b></p><p>Past recessions in the United States</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Economic growth and the composition of GDP: 67.7% of US nominal GDP in 2020Q1 was consumption, 17.9% was government spending, 12.9% was investment excluding real estate, and 4.0% was real estate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>COVID-19: U.S. confirmed cases, as well as deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>High-frequency economic data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Consumer finance: 27% of U.S. consumer assets are in real estate, 21% in retirement funds, and 66% of liabilities are in mortgages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Income Inequality in the U.S. Economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Long-term drivers of the U.S. economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal finances</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Employment and wages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Business sentiment and economic cycles</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Employment and income of people with different educational levels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Dollar Drivers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Crude oil market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal policy rate: FOMC June minutes show that U.S. GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate will reach 9.3% in Q4, and the personal consumption expenditure deflator PCE will be 0.8%; Long-term outlook U.S. GDP growth at 1.8%, unemployment at 4.1%, PCEWEI at 2.0%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>The Fed's Balance Sheet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Interest rates and inflation rates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p><p><b>Fixed income market dynamics</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Yield curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Fixed Rate of Return and Its Relationship with Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>High Yield Bonds: The average 30-year high yield default rate was 3.56%, compared to 4.85% as of June 30, 2020;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Corporate bonds: the bonds of the government sector were 103.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, which is at a historical high, the bonds of the household sector were 75.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the non-financial corporate bonds were 74.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019; Baa investment-grade corporate bonds accounted for 48.6% at the end of the second quarter of 2020, down from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Negative Yield Debt: As of May 31, 2020, the Japanese government held negative yield government debt of $5.35 trillion, European governments held negative yield government debt of $5.49 trillion, and global negative yield corporate debt of $1.27 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Liquidity in the bond market: Bond inventories of major bond underwriters accounted for 0.3% of overall U.S. corporate bonds in the first quarter of 2020, an increase from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global Monetary Policy: It is forecast that the bond purchases of major central banks in developed countries will continue to increase significantly in 2021, with the Federal Reserve bond purchases still the largest, with a significant increase compared with 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Global fixed income markets: U.S. bonds were US$41 trillion, other developed countries except the U.S. were US$47 trillion, and emerging markets were US$26 trillion at the end of 2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Fixed income segment yield comparison: Emerging US dollar bonds had the highest average yield at 7.3% annualized from 2005 to 2019, but also had the highest volatility at 10.6%, followed by high yield bonds, and ABS had the lowest yield</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Global stock markets: The U.S. stock market (represented by the S&P 500) has the highest average yield in the past 15 years, at 9.0%, followed by emerging markets at 7.8%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Source of global equity income: From 2005 to 2019, the biggest contributor to the yield of the U.S. equity market was income growth, followed by dividends, and the valuation multiple contributed the least; Negative currency contribution in emerging markets and European markets except the UK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Currency and international equity income: A stronger US dollar is bad for the return of the international equity market, while a weaker US dollar is beneficial to the international equity market; For MSCI Global ex-U.S. Index Earnings in 2019, the U.S. dollar had a negative 10.8% impact on it</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>U.S. and international equity markets at inflection points: S&P 500 price gains of 401% from 2009 to June 30, 2020, followed by an 8% pullback, while ACWI excluding U.S. equity markets index gains of 143% over the same period, followed by a 19% pullback</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>International Equity Earnings and Valuations: Global Listed Companies Earnings Slipped in 2020; From a valuation perspective, the current U.S. stock market has the highest PE at 21.77X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global economic growth: In May 2020, the service PMI index was 35.2, and the manufacturing index was 42.4%, both of which were below the boom-bust line, but both rebounded significantly from the previous month; Global real GDP growth was-1.7% in the first quarter of 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>COVID-19: Global confirmed cases and deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Global economic high-frequency activity index: developed countries have all rebounded from the low bottom in March, but are thought to be below 0; Among the developing countries, Japan, Taiwan and Russia have recovered faster</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Service sector momentum: The service sector PMI indices of major developed countries all rebounded in June 2020, with France reaching 50.3</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Global inflation rate: The inflation rate in most mainstream countries of the world fell in May compared with April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Financial support for COVID-19: Italy, Germany and Japan have the strongest financial support for COVID-19, with Italy's fiscal expenditure reaching 34% of GDP</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>China's economic situation: China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was-6.8%, of which investment was-1.5%, consumption was-4.4% and net exports were-1.0%; Projected fiscal deficit of 14% of GDP in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Emerging markets: The economic growth rate of GDP in emerging markets is expected to remain positive in 2020, but it is expected to be negative in developed countries, and the difference between the two has improved from the previous month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Hedge Funds: Expect Macro Hedge Fund Performance to Return Relative to Hedge Fund Research Index in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Private equity market: Overall, the yield of private equity market is higher than that of MSCI ACWI global secondary market stock; In 2019, US private equity funds completed raising but have not yet invested about $1.2 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The Alerian MLP ETF yields as much as 15.2% annualized in the alternative investment category, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields just 0.7%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p><p>Global commodities: The price of gold was $1,801 an ounce on June 30, 2020, which is more consistent with the price adjusted for inflation, and the trend is more obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>The global asset allocation portfolio (25% S&P 500, 10% Russell 2000, 15% MSCI EAFE, 5% MSCI EME, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate, 5% Bloomberg Barclays January-March Treasury Bond, 5% Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond, 5% Bloomberg Barclays Commodity, and 5% NAREIT Equity REIT) yielded 19.5% in 2019 and 6.6% annualized in 2005-2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>Fund inflows: From 2007, a total of 2,611 billion USD of mutual funds and ETFs flowed into the bond market, which declined in 2020; $1,467 billion flowed into the stock market and $602 billion into other large asset classes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>The average annualized stock market yield over the past 20 years was 11.3%, bonds yielded 5.9% annualized, and the 50/50 portfolio yielded 8.9%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>The alternative asset class has the highest annualized yield for REITs over the past 20 years (1999-2019) at 11.6%, followed by precious metal gold at 8.6%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>At the end of the second quarter, 37 percent of Republicans rated the national economy as good or good, while only 11 percent of Democrats rated it as good or good</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>A $100,000 deposit account can earn $280 in 2020, but it needs $1,236 to pay for negative gains from inflation, $2,046 to eliminate negative gains from education inflation, and $4,904 to eliminate negative gains from health care</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>","source":"lsy1595209191943","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase's Latest Report: 64 Pictures Tell You the Full Picture of the Current Situation of US Stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杰晶维基</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-19 19:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Introduction: JP Morgan Asset Management's Guide to Markets report series is an article we must read and will definitely translate. In this illustrated report, it clearly describes the position of the global asset classes and the US stock market, as well as the main contradictions in the current market. Here is our full-text translation of the JP Morgan Guide To Markets for the third quarter, which we hope will help you.</p><p>Article Source | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020</p><p><b>Third Quarter 2020 Market Guide</b></p><p><b>Stock Market</b></p><p>The S&P 500 at the inflection point: The S&P 500 rose 401% from its low on March 9, 2009 to its high on February 19, 2020, and then fell 8% so far (June 30, 2020)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p><p>S&P 500 valuation was 21.72X on June 30, 2020, and its average valuation level over the past 25 years was 16.39X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>P/E and Stock Return</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Earnings in all sectors of the S&P 500 Index declined year-on-year in 2020H1, with the energy market seeing the biggest decline</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Source of EPS growth: 2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS growth was-48.7% annualized, with profit margin growth of 47.3% annualized among the three contributing factors, which was the main reason for negative EPS growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Value VS Growth: Value VS Growth Yield of 0.97 in 2020H1, Value Index Macro has 56.1% of individual stocks with a beta greater than 1</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Different Styles of Earnings and Valuations: On a quarterly basis, the type with small market cap and high growth earned the best, reaching 30.6%; On an annual basis, the type with large market capitalization and high growth performed the best, reaching 9.8%, followed by the medium market capitalization with high growth, at 4.2%, and the other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Earnings and valuations of different sectors: In terms of quarter, the consumer sector is the best, reaching 32.9%; On an annual basis, the technology sector performed the best at 15%, followed by the consumer sector at 7.2%, and all other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Factor Performance: The momentum factor had the best return from 2005 to 2019, reaching 11%, followed by the low volatility factor at 10.2%, and the small market cap factor had the lowest return at 7.9%, with the largest volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p><p>Annualized earnings and pullback during the year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Market volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The probability of a bear market and a subsequent bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>The stock market since 1990</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><b>Macroeconomic market</b></p><p>Past recessions in the United States</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Economic growth and the composition of GDP: 67.7% of US nominal GDP in 2020Q1 was consumption, 17.9% was government spending, 12.9% was investment excluding real estate, and 4.0% was real estate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>COVID-19: U.S. confirmed cases, as well as deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>High-frequency economic data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Consumer finance: 27% of U.S. consumer assets are in real estate, 21% in retirement funds, and 66% of liabilities are in mortgages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Income Inequality in the U.S. Economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Long-term drivers of the U.S. economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal finances</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Employment and wages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Business sentiment and economic cycles</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Employment and income of people with different educational levels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Dollar Drivers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Crude oil market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal policy rate: FOMC June minutes show that U.S. GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate will reach 9.3% in Q4, and the personal consumption expenditure deflator PCE will be 0.8%; Long-term outlook U.S. GDP growth at 1.8%, unemployment at 4.1%, PCEWEI at 2.0%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>The Fed's Balance Sheet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Interest rates and inflation rates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p><p><b>Fixed income market dynamics</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Yield curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Fixed Rate of Return and Its Relationship with Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>High Yield Bonds: The average 30-year high yield default rate was 3.56%, compared to 4.85% as of June 30, 2020;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Corporate bonds: the bonds of the government sector were 103.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, which is at a historical high, the bonds of the household sector were 75.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the non-financial corporate bonds were 74.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019; Baa investment-grade corporate bonds accounted for 48.6% at the end of the second quarter of 2020, down from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Negative Yield Debt: As of May 31, 2020, the Japanese government held negative yield government debt of $5.35 trillion, European governments held negative yield government debt of $5.49 trillion, and global negative yield corporate debt of $1.27 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Liquidity in the bond market: Bond inventories of major bond underwriters accounted for 0.3% of overall U.S. corporate bonds in the first quarter of 2020, an increase from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global Monetary Policy: It is forecast that the bond purchases of major central banks in developed countries will continue to increase significantly in 2021, with the Federal Reserve bond purchases still the largest, with a significant increase compared with 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Global fixed income markets: U.S. bonds were US$41 trillion, other developed countries except the U.S. were US$47 trillion, and emerging markets were US$26 trillion at the end of 2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Fixed income segment yield comparison: Emerging US dollar bonds had the highest average yield at 7.3% annualized from 2005 to 2019, but also had the highest volatility at 10.6%, followed by high yield bonds, and ABS had the lowest yield</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Global stock markets: The U.S. stock market (represented by the S&P 500) has the highest average yield in the past 15 years, at 9.0%, followed by emerging markets at 7.8%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Source of global equity income: From 2005 to 2019, the biggest contributor to the yield of the U.S. equity market was income growth, followed by dividends, and the valuation multiple contributed the least; Negative currency contribution in emerging markets and European markets except the UK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Currency and international equity income: A stronger US dollar is bad for the return of the international equity market, while a weaker US dollar is beneficial to the international equity market; For MSCI Global ex-U.S. Index Earnings in 2019, the U.S. dollar had a negative 10.8% impact on it</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>U.S. and international equity markets at inflection points: S&P 500 price gains of 401% from 2009 to June 30, 2020, followed by an 8% pullback, while ACWI excluding U.S. equity markets index gains of 143% over the same period, followed by a 19% pullback</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>International Equity Earnings and Valuations: Global Listed Companies Earnings Slipped in 2020; From a valuation perspective, the current U.S. stock market has the highest PE at 21.77X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global economic growth: In May 2020, the service PMI index was 35.2, and the manufacturing index was 42.4%, both of which were below the boom-bust line, but both rebounded significantly from the previous month; Global real GDP growth was-1.7% in the first quarter of 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>COVID-19: Global confirmed cases and deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Global economic high-frequency activity index: developed countries have all rebounded from the low bottom in March, but are thought to be below 0; Among the developing countries, Japan, Taiwan and Russia have recovered faster</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Service sector momentum: The service sector PMI indices of major developed countries all rebounded in June 2020, with France reaching 50.3</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Global inflation rate: The inflation rate in most mainstream countries of the world fell in May compared with April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Financial support for COVID-19: Italy, Germany and Japan have the strongest financial support for COVID-19, with Italy's fiscal expenditure reaching 34% of GDP</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>China's economic situation: China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was-6.8%, of which investment was-1.5%, consumption was-4.4% and net exports were-1.0%; Projected fiscal deficit of 14% of GDP in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Emerging markets: The economic growth rate of GDP in emerging markets is expected to remain positive in 2020, but it is expected to be negative in developed countries, and the difference between the two has improved from the previous month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Hedge Funds: Expect Macro Hedge Fund Performance to Return Relative to Hedge Fund Research Index in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Private equity market: Overall, the yield of private equity market is higher than that of MSCI ACWI global secondary market stock; In 2019, US private equity funds completed raising but have not yet invested about $1.2 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The Alerian MLP ETF yields as much as 15.2% annualized in the alternative investment category, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields just 0.7%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p><p>Global commodities: The price of gold was $1,801 an ounce on June 30, 2020, which is more consistent with the price adjusted for inflation, and the trend is more obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>The global asset allocation portfolio (25% S&P 500, 10% Russell 2000, 15% MSCI EAFE, 5% MSCI EME, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate, 5% Bloomberg Barclays January-March Treasury Bond, 5% Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond, 5% Bloomberg Barclays Commodity, and 5% NAREIT Equity REIT) yielded 19.5% in 2019 and 6.6% annualized in 2005-2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>Fund inflows: From 2007, a total of 2,611 billion USD of mutual funds and ETFs flowed into the bond market, which declined in 2020; $1,467 billion flowed into the stock market and $602 billion into other large asset classes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>The average annualized stock market yield over the past 20 years was 11.3%, bonds yielded 5.9% annualized, and the 50/50 portfolio yielded 8.9%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>The alternative asset class has the highest annualized yield for REITs over the past 20 years (1999-2019) at 11.6%, followed by precious metal gold at 8.6%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>At the end of the second quarter, 37 percent of Republicans rated the national economy as good or good, while only 11 percent of Democrats rated it as good or good</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>A $100,000 deposit account can earn $280 in 2020, but it needs $1,236 to pay for negative gains from inflation, $2,046 to eliminate negative gains from education inflation, and $4,904 to eliminate negative gains from health care</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag\">杰晶维基</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f636e805bfca87903ab08fc842298","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199570467","content_text":"导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译，希望给大家带来帮助。\n文章来源 | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020\n2020年第三季度 市场指南\n一、股票市场\n拐点处的S&P 500：S&P 500从2009年3月9日的低点到2020年2月19的高点涨了401%，然后至今(2020年6月30日)跌了8%\n\n2020年6月30日标普500估值为21.72X，过去25年平均估值水平为16.39X\n\nP/E和股票回报率\n\n2020H1标普500指数各个行业收益同比均有所下滑，其中能源市场下滑幅度最大\n\nEPS增长的来源：2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS 年化增速为-48.7%，其中三个贡献因素中利润率年化增长为47.3%，是EPS负增长的主要原因\n\n价值 VS 增长：2020H1价值相对于增长收益率为0.97，价值指数宏有56.1%的个股贝塔大于1\n\n不同风格的收益和估值：就季度来看，小市值高增长的类型收益最好，达到30.6%；按年度来看，大市值高增长的类型表现最好，达到9.8%，中市值高增长次之，为4.2%，其他类型的均为负增长\n\n不同板块的收益和估值：就季度来看，消费行业板块最好，达到32.9%；按年度来看，科技板块表现最好，达到15%，消费板块次之，为7.2%，其他类型的均为负增长\n\n因子表现：2005至2019年间动量因子的收益最好，达到11%，低波动因子次之，为10.2%，小市值因子收益最低，为7.9%，且波动率最大\n\n年化收益以及年内回调\n\n市场波动率\n\n熊市以及随后的牛市的概率\n\n1990年以来的股票市场\n\n二、宏观经济市场\n美国过去经济衰退情况\n\n经济增长以及GDP的构成：2020Q1美国名义GDP中的67.7%是消费，17.9%是政府支出，12.9%是排除房地产外的投资，4.0%是房地产\n\nCOVID-19：美国确诊以及死亡人数\n\n高频经济数据\n\n消费金融：美国消费者资产中27%是房产，21%退休金，负债中66%是房贷\n\n美国经济中的收入不平等\n\n美国经济的长期驱动因素\n\n联邦财政\n\n就业和工资\n\n商业情绪和经济周期\n\n不同教育程度人群的就业和收入\n\n通货膨胀\n\n美元驱动因素\n\n原油市场\n\n联邦政策利率：FOMC 6月纪要显示2020年美国GDP将萎缩6.5%，Q4失业率将达到9.3%，个人消费支出平减指数PCE为0.8%；长期展望美国GDP增速为1.8%，失业率为4.1%，PCEWEI 2.0%\n\n美联储的资产负债表\n\n利率和通货膨胀率\n\n三、固定收益市场动态\n\n收益率曲线\n\n固定收益率及其与股票市场的关系\n\n高收益债券：平均30年高收益债券违约率为3.56%，而截止2020年6月30日的高收益债券违约率为4.85%；\n\n公司债：政府部门的债券是2019第四季度的103.9%，处于历史高位，家庭部门的债券是2019第四季度的75.4%，非金融公司债是2019第四季度的74.9%；Baa投资级公司债券在2020年二季度末占比为48.6%，环比有所下降\n\n负收益债务：截止2020年5月31日，日本政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.35万亿美元，欧洲政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.49万亿美元，全球负收益公司债务为1.27万亿美元\n\n债券市场的流动性：2020年第一季度主要债券承销商债券库存占美国公司债整体的比例为0.3%，环比有所提升\n\n全球货币政策：预测2021年发达国家主要央行债券购买量将继续大幅增加，其中美联储债券购买量仍为最多，较2020年提升明显\n\n全球固定收益市场：截止2019年末，美国债券量为41万亿美元，其他发达国家除美国外债券量为47万亿美元，新兴市场债券量为26万亿美元\n\n固定收益细分市场收益对比：2005-2019年新兴美元债的平均收益率最高，为年化7.3%，但是波动率也最高，为10.6%，高收益债券次之，ABS的收益率最低\n\n全球股票市场：全球市场15年以来美国(以标普500为代表)股票市场平均收益率最高，为9.0%，新兴市场收益率次之，为7.8%\n\n全球股票收益的来源：2005-2019年美国权益市场收益率贡献最大的因素为收益增长，其次为分红，估值倍数贡献最小；新兴市场和欧洲除英国以外的市场中货币为负贡献\n\n货币和国际权益收益：美元走强对国际权益市场回报不利，而美元走弱有利于国际权益市场；2019年对于MSCI全球除美国指数收益来说美元对其影响为负10.8%\n\n拐点处的美国和国际权益市场：2009年至2020年6月30日标普500指数价格收益为401%，随后回调幅度为8%，而ACWI除美国权益市场指数同期收益为143%，随后回调幅度为19%\n\n国际股票收益和估值：2020年全球上市公司收益均有所下滑；估值角度来看目前美国股票市场PE最高，为21.77X\n\n全球经济增长情况：2020年5月服务业PMI指数为35.2，制造业指数为42.4%，均处于荣枯线一下，但是环比都有明显回升；2020年第一季度全球实际GDP增速为-1.7%\n\nCOVID-19：全球确诊病例和死亡人数\n\n全球经济高频活动指数：发达国家从3月低的底部均有所回升，但是认为在0以下；发展中国家中日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯恢复较快\n\n服务业动量：2020年6月主要发达国家服务业PMI指数均有所回升，其中法国达到50.3\n\n全球通货膨胀率：全球主流大部分国家通货膨胀率5月相较于4月均有所下滑\n\n新冠肺炎的财政支持力度：意大利、德国、日本面对新冠肺炎财政支持力度最大，其中意大利财政支出达到GDP的34%\n\n中国经济情况：中国2020年第一季度经济增速为-6.8%，其中投资为-1.5%，消费为-4.4%，净出口为-1.0%；2020年预计财政赤字占GDP达14%\n\n新兴市场：2020年预期新兴市场GDP的经济增速仍为正，但发达国家预计为负，两者之差环比有所提升\n\n对冲基金：预计2020年宏观对冲基金相对于对冲基金研究指数表现将会回落\n\n私募股权市场：整体来看私募股权市场收益率均高于MSCI ACWI全球二级市场股票收益；2019年美国私募股权基金完成募集但还未投出的资金在1.2万亿美元左右\n\n另类投资类别中Alerian MLP ETF年化收益最高为15.2%，而美国10年期国债收益仅为0.7%\n\n全球大宗商品：2020年6月30日金价为1801美元一盎司，与调整通货膨胀率的价格较为一致，趋势上看上升较为明显\n\n全球多种类资产配置组合(25%标普500指数, 10% 罗素2000指数, 15% MSCI EAFE指数, 5% MSCI EME, 25%彭博巴克莱美国综合指数, 5%彭博巴克莱1-3月期限国债指数, 5%彭博巴克莱高收益债券指数, 5%彭博巴克莱商品指数以及5% NAREIT Equity REIT 指数)2019年收益率为19.5%，2005-2019年化收益率为6.6%\n\n基金流入情况：从2007年累计共同基金和ETF有26110亿美元流入债券市场，2020年有所下滑；有14670亿美元流入股票市场，6020亿美元流入其他大类资产\n\n过去20年股票市场年化平均收益为11.3%，债券年化收益率为5.9%，50/50组合收益为8.9%\n\n另类资产类别中过去20年(1999-2019) REITs的年化收益率最高，为11.6%，贵金属金次之，为8.6%\n\n截止第二季度末，有37%的共和党中将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好，只有11%的民主党人将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好\n\n2020年10万美元存款账户能够获得280美元的收益，但是需要1236美元去支付通货膨胀带来的负收益，2046美元去消除教育通胀的负收益，4904美元去消除医疗保障的负收益","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":390036475,"gmtCreate":1605664677797,"gmtModify":1704961602519,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/390036475","repostId":"307752301","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":307752301,"gmtCreate":1605653345396,"gmtModify":1704961537710,"author":{"id":"20727972514030","authorId":"20727972514030","name":"Tony特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f671464b0bc8103579e8d0e2197c48","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"20727972514030","idStr":"20727972514030"},"themes":[],"title":"我怎麼覺得都會漲。。。","htmlText":"11月16～20號美股IPO：都是很有意思的股票。全部6只股票都很有意思。 週三週二都是空白支票，還有一個房地產基金就略過吧。6只股票集中在週四週五上市。 當然，覺得都會漲是一回事，敢不敢買又是另一回事。 我肯定會買 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVI\">$MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.(MRVI)$</a> 順便<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙電商(YSG)$</a> 也打新了 星期四： <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGMS\">$NeoGames S.A.(NGMS)$</a> 給彩票運營商做技術服務以及全方位服務的公司。 說白了就是某人拿到彩票運營執照，然後找這家公司做全權外包直接享受分成即可。對公司而言，只需要找一個有牌照的人剩下的事兒他們就都可以解決了。 所以公司的營收概括起來，就是從交付解決方案，遊戲，合同，聯合運營以及提供的開發服務中獲利。 彩票有什麼可技術運營的呢？美國彩票有很多騷操作，看起來就跟遊戲一樣，但實際上是彩票機制。 這些都是彩票 公司只涉及彩票中的iLottery Instants和DBG（玩法），從某種程度上限制了公司的天花板。在美國彩票是一個受到嚴格監管的行業。雖然在45個州和哥倫比亞特區提供彩票，但目前僅在九個州提供iLottery Instants或DBG。 因爲疫情將玩家轉移到了在線娛樂領域。截至2020年9月30日止九個月的收入爲3,520萬美元，較截至2019年9月30日止九個月的2,410萬美元增加了1,110萬美元或46.0％。 股東： 市值：約4億 收入：截止2020年9月30日9個月","listText":"11月16～20號美股IPO：都是很有意思的股票。全部6只股票都很有意思。 週三週二都是空白支票，還有一個房地產基金就略過吧。6只股票集中在週四週五上市。 當然，覺得都會漲是一回事，敢不敢買又是另一回事。 我肯定會買 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVI\">$MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.(MRVI)$</a> 順便<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙電商(YSG)$</a> 也打新了 星期四： <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGMS\">$NeoGames S.A.(NGMS)$</a> 給彩票運營商做技術服務以及全方位服務的公司。 說白了就是某人拿到彩票運營執照，然後找這家公司做全權外包直接享受分成即可。對公司而言，只需要找一個有牌照的人剩下的事兒他們就都可以解決了。 所以公司的營收概括起來，就是從交付解決方案，遊戲，合同，聯合運營以及提供的開發服務中獲利。 彩票有什麼可技術運營的呢？美國彩票有很多騷操作，看起來就跟遊戲一樣，但實際上是彩票機制。 這些都是彩票 公司只涉及彩票中的iLottery Instants和DBG（玩法），從某種程度上限制了公司的天花板。在美國彩票是一個受到嚴格監管的行業。雖然在45個州和哥倫比亞特區提供彩票，但目前僅在九個州提供iLottery Instants或DBG。 因爲疫情將玩家轉移到了在線娛樂領域。截至2020年9月30日止九個月的收入爲3,520萬美元，較截至2019年9月30日止九個月的2,410萬美元增加了1,110萬美元或46.0％。 股東： 市值：約4億 收入：截止2020年9月30日9個月","text":"11月16～20號美股IPO：都是很有意思的股票。全部6只股票都很有意思。 週三週二都是空白支票，還有一個房地產基金就略過吧。6只股票集中在週四週五上市。 當然，覺得都會漲是一回事，敢不敢買又是另一回事。 我肯定會買 $MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.(MRVI)$ 順便$逸仙電商(YSG)$ 也打新了 星期四： $NeoGames S.A.(NGMS)$ 給彩票運營商做技術服務以及全方位服務的公司。 說白了就是某人拿到彩票運營執照，然後找這家公司做全權外包直接享受分成即可。對公司而言，只需要找一個有牌照的人剩下的事兒他們就都可以解決了。 所以公司的營收概括起來，就是從交付解決方案，遊戲，合同，聯合運營以及提供的開發服務中獲利。 彩票有什麼可技術運營的呢？美國彩票有很多騷操作，看起來就跟遊戲一樣，但實際上是彩票機制。 這些都是彩票 公司只涉及彩票中的iLottery Instants和DBG（玩法），從某種程度上限制了公司的天花板。在美國彩票是一個受到嚴格監管的行業。雖然在45個州和哥倫比亞特區提供彩票，但目前僅在九個州提供iLottery Instants或DBG。 因爲疫情將玩家轉移到了在線娛樂領域。截至2020年9月30日止九個月的收入爲3,520萬美元，較截至2019年9月30日止九個月的2,410萬美元增加了1,110萬美元或46.0％。 股東： 市值：約4億 收入：截止2020年9月30日9個月","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50d6c47a36d3e9d1531976f13c73025","width":"1678","height":"1234"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f20bd9ee3ceb97574ac12073ccd35fd7","width":"2100","height":"268"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb608063b272106266f7a079d6cdca16","width":"1242","height":"702"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/307752301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":15,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":972494950,"gmtCreate":1600310545770,"gmtModify":1705064069063,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/972494950","repostId":"1104455716","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":957079925,"gmtCreate":1593132660067,"gmtModify":1705041253142,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/957079925","repostId":"954540089","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":954540089,"gmtCreate":1592994060735,"gmtModify":1705320410643,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"37002306153600","idStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"【虎友訪談】土澳留學的95後美女暢談如何學投資！","htmlText":" Hello，各位虎友們大家好，歡迎來到虎妞聊天室！ 她是一個95後小美女，雖然流浪在土澳，自由且爛漫，但她並沒有放緩學習的腳步。疫情之下，寬裕的時間讓她開啓了投資之旅，是韭菜還是王者？且看虎妞請到的嘉賓<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/34566861297542\">@Jenny珍妮理財</a> #老虎步行街# T：可以簡單介紹下自己嗎？ 我是一名95後，同齡人現在都自稱老阿姨，但我覺得自己還很年輕！ 目前我是在澳大利亞悉尼讀商務管理，來悉尼兩年多了。 T：好年輕啊！邊讀書邊炒股嗎？怎麼接觸到股市的？ 之前支付寶買一些基金，都是系統推薦的，也沒怎麼關注，買了就放在那裏。 這不yq的原因嘛，學校改成上網課了，有一天逛小紅書刷到有人在分析基金的一些知識，我就慢慢也比較關注了，一開始只是買的基金後來今年四月份纔開的戶，嘗試買一個股票，算是特別偶然的機會吧 T：也算是一枚新股民呀，買的第一個股票是啥？ A股第一支股票是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600511\">$國藥股份(600511)$</a> ，那時候剛出一個消息，說他要研發新冠疫苗嘛，我覺得應該不錯，買進去，當天就漲了幾個點，第二天就漲停了，然後就賣掉了，感覺就是運氣吧！現在這幾天他又在漲停，不過沒去參與。 美股第一隻是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a> ，收益也不錯，在這個上面來來回回做波段掙了75%收益率，經常看評論區，相信很多手握蔚來股票的朋友收益率比我高的都很多都賺了一倍兩倍 。 T：所以說，您看好蔚來的具體原因是？ 我自己的感覺是： 第一，國家發展方向在這裏，新能源車設指標，搞補貼弄優惠，這","listText":" Hello，各位虎友們大家好，歡迎來到虎妞聊天室！ 她是一個95後小美女，雖然流浪在土澳，自由且爛漫，但她並沒有放緩學習的腳步。疫情之下，寬裕的時間讓她開啓了投資之旅，是韭菜還是王者？且看虎妞請到的嘉賓<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/34566861297542\">@Jenny珍妮理財</a> #老虎步行街# T：可以簡單介紹下自己嗎？ 我是一名95後，同齡人現在都自稱老阿姨，但我覺得自己還很年輕！ 目前我是在澳大利亞悉尼讀商務管理，來悉尼兩年多了。 T：好年輕啊！邊讀書邊炒股嗎？怎麼接觸到股市的？ 之前支付寶買一些基金，都是系統推薦的，也沒怎麼關注，買了就放在那裏。 這不yq的原因嘛，學校改成上網課了，有一天逛小紅書刷到有人在分析基金的一些知識，我就慢慢也比較關注了，一開始只是買的基金後來今年四月份纔開的戶，嘗試買一個股票，算是特別偶然的機會吧 T：也算是一枚新股民呀，買的第一個股票是啥？ A股第一支股票是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600511\">$國藥股份(600511)$</a> ，那時候剛出一個消息，說他要研發新冠疫苗嘛，我覺得應該不錯，買進去，當天就漲了幾個點，第二天就漲停了，然後就賣掉了，感覺就是運氣吧！現在這幾天他又在漲停，不過沒去參與。 美股第一隻是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a> ，收益也不錯，在這個上面來來回回做波段掙了75%收益率，經常看評論區，相信很多手握蔚來股票的朋友收益率比我高的都很多都賺了一倍兩倍 。 T：所以說，您看好蔚來的具體原因是？ 我自己的感覺是： 第一，國家發展方向在這裏，新能源車設指標，搞補貼弄優惠，這","text":"Hello，各位虎友們大家好，歡迎來到虎妞聊天室！ 她是一個95後小美女，雖然流浪在土澳，自由且爛漫，但她並沒有放緩學習的腳步。疫情之下，寬裕的時間讓她開啓了投資之旅，是韭菜還是王者？且看虎妞請到的嘉賓@Jenny珍妮理財 #老虎步行街# T：可以簡單介紹下自己嗎？ 我是一名95後，同齡人現在都自稱老阿姨，但我覺得自己還很年輕！ 目前我是在澳大利亞悉尼讀商務管理，來悉尼兩年多了。 T：好年輕啊！邊讀書邊炒股嗎？怎麼接觸到股市的？ 之前支付寶買一些基金，都是系統推薦的，也沒怎麼關注，買了就放在那裏。 這不yq的原因嘛，學校改成上網課了，有一天逛小紅書刷到有人在分析基金的一些知識，我就慢慢也比較關注了，一開始只是買的基金後來今年四月份纔開的戶，嘗試買一個股票，算是特別偶然的機會吧 T：也算是一枚新股民呀，買的第一個股票是啥？ A股第一支股票是$國藥股份(600511)$ ，那時候剛出一個消息，說他要研發新冠疫苗嘛，我覺得應該不錯，買進去，當天就漲了幾個點，第二天就漲停了，然後就賣掉了，感覺就是運氣吧！現在這幾天他又在漲停，不過沒去參與。 美股第一隻是$蔚來(NIO)$ ，收益也不錯，在這個上面來來回回做波段掙了75%收益率，經常看評論區，相信很多手握蔚來股票的朋友收益率比我高的都很多都賺了一倍兩倍 。 T：所以說，您看好蔚來的具體原因是？ 我自己的感覺是： 第一，國家發展方向在這裏，新能源車設指標，搞補貼弄優惠，這","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac055d4e676596eb0948ef77daca676","width":"715","height":"432"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51672cb5267d57bb34e960514efac4e0","width":"703","height":"434"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f015ae36284457cf43c976078967eae","width":"738","height":"409"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/954540089","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":956830165,"gmtCreate":1591627685457,"gmtModify":1705315936314,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，，","listText":"，，","text":"，，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/956830165","repostId":"1178900773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":956190324,"gmtCreate":1591608407568,"gmtModify":1705315793448,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/956190324","repostId":"951439453","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":951439453,"gmtCreate":1591013621872,"gmtModify":1705313834208,"author":{"id":"3549511400974067","authorId":"3549511400974067","name":"妙投新经济","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29b110eb9d7346b6925062991d0d18cd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549511400974067","idStr":"3549511400974067"},"themes":[],"title":"熱點解讀 | 陸正耀棄“車”保瑞幸，晚了","htmlText":"出品 | 虎嗅大商業組作者 | 李玲僅一個多月，神州租車的原定接盤俠再次改變。6月1日，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00699\">$神州租車(00699)$</a>&nbsp;發佈了《內幕消息公告》，公佈了兩件事：第一，華平投資對神州租車的股權收購買賣終止，原定的第二輪交易不再進行。第二，神州租車董事會被大股東神州優車告知，神州優車已於5月31日與北汽集團簽訂了一份無法律約束力的戰略合作協議，北汽集團或將收購神州優車持有的神州租車所有股份。距離4月22日，港交所披露華平投資將分兩輪完成對神州優車持有的神州租車股份的收購交易，僅過去一個多月的時間，神州租車易主對象再度發生變更，從華平投資變爲北汽集團。值得玩味的是，公告特別說明，這份“戰略協議”不具“法律約束力”。北京市京師（上海）律師事務所李金焱律師告訴虎嗅，按照公告裏的說法，可以理解爲目前只是一個交易意向。“一個表示願意賣，一個表示願意買。但是雙方明確，即使後期賣方不願意賣，買房不願意買，雙方也互相之間不產生法律上的責任，雙方也不負法律上的責任。”顯然，這份徒有其名的戰略協議正在產生影響。今日（6月1日），神州租車股價突破2港元。從昨日收盤至今日收盤，神州租車股價上漲超23%。但大股東神州優車就沒那麼好運氣了，全國中小企業股份轉讓系統有限責任公司發佈公告稱，神州優車未同步披露內幕信息，且未申請停牌，6月1日起被停牌。無法律約束力的戰略合作這份聲勢浩大但沒有實際約束力的戰略協議，看起來頗具陸正耀風格。根據內幕公告，神州優車與北汽集團簽訂戰略合作協議，後者將收購神州優車握有的不多於450,790,855股股份，相當於神州租車於已發行股本總額約21.26%。根據神州租車5月一份出售資產公告，神州優車透過其全資附屬公司持有神州租車已發行股本總額約21.26%。也就是說","listText":"出品 | 虎嗅大商業組作者 | 李玲僅一個多月，神州租車的原定接盤俠再次改變。6月1日，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00699\">$神州租車(00699)$</a>&nbsp;發佈了《內幕消息公告》，公佈了兩件事：第一，華平投資對神州租車的股權收購買賣終止，原定的第二輪交易不再進行。第二，神州租車董事會被大股東神州優車告知，神州優車已於5月31日與北汽集團簽訂了一份無法律約束力的戰略合作協議，北汽集團或將收購神州優車持有的神州租車所有股份。距離4月22日，港交所披露華平投資將分兩輪完成對神州優車持有的神州租車股份的收購交易，僅過去一個多月的時間，神州租車易主對象再度發生變更，從華平投資變爲北汽集團。值得玩味的是，公告特別說明，這份“戰略協議”不具“法律約束力”。北京市京師（上海）律師事務所李金焱律師告訴虎嗅，按照公告裏的說法，可以理解爲目前只是一個交易意向。“一個表示願意賣，一個表示願意買。但是雙方明確，即使後期賣方不願意賣，買房不願意買，雙方也互相之間不產生法律上的責任，雙方也不負法律上的責任。”顯然，這份徒有其名的戰略協議正在產生影響。今日（6月1日），神州租車股價突破2港元。從昨日收盤至今日收盤，神州租車股價上漲超23%。但大股東神州優車就沒那麼好運氣了，全國中小企業股份轉讓系統有限責任公司發佈公告稱，神州優車未同步披露內幕信息，且未申請停牌，6月1日起被停牌。無法律約束力的戰略合作這份聲勢浩大但沒有實際約束力的戰略協議，看起來頗具陸正耀風格。根據內幕公告，神州優車與北汽集團簽訂戰略合作協議，後者將收購神州優車握有的不多於450,790,855股股份，相當於神州租車於已發行股本總額約21.26%。根據神州租車5月一份出售資產公告，神州優車透過其全資附屬公司持有神州租車已發行股本總額約21.26%。也就是說","text":"出品 | 虎嗅大商業組作者 | 李玲僅一個多月，神州租車的原定接盤俠再次改變。6月1日，$神州租車(00699)$ 發佈了《內幕消息公告》，公佈了兩件事：第一，華平投資對神州租車的股權收購買賣終止，原定的第二輪交易不再進行。第二，神州租車董事會被大股東神州優車告知，神州優車已於5月31日與北汽集團簽訂了一份無法律約束力的戰略合作協議，北汽集團或將收購神州優車持有的神州租車所有股份。距離4月22日，港交所披露華平投資將分兩輪完成對神州優車持有的神州租車股份的收購交易，僅過去一個多月的時間，神州租車易主對象再度發生變更，從華平投資變爲北汽集團。值得玩味的是，公告特別說明，這份“戰略協議”不具“法律約束力”。北京市京師（上海）律師事務所李金焱律師告訴虎嗅，按照公告裏的說法，可以理解爲目前只是一個交易意向。“一個表示願意賣，一個表示願意買。但是雙方明確，即使後期賣方不願意賣，買房不願意買，雙方也互相之間不產生法律上的責任，雙方也不負法律上的責任。”顯然，這份徒有其名的戰略協議正在產生影響。今日（6月1日），神州租車股價突破2港元。從昨日收盤至今日收盤，神州租車股價上漲超23%。但大股東神州優車就沒那麼好運氣了，全國中小企業股份轉讓系統有限責任公司發佈公告稱，神州優車未同步披露內幕信息，且未申請停牌，6月1日起被停牌。無法律約束力的戰略合作這份聲勢浩大但沒有實際約束力的戰略協議，看起來頗具陸正耀風格。根據內幕公告，神州優車與北汽集團簽訂戰略合作協議，後者將收購神州優車握有的不多於450,790,855股股份，相當於神州租車於已發行股本總額約21.26%。根據神州租車5月一份出售資產公告，神州優車透過其全資附屬公司持有神州租車已發行股本總額約21.26%。也就是說","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490865f0be6c8d9a786b7c0dbc9352aa","width":"688","height":"445"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/951439453","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":956327132,"gmtCreate":1591597902326,"gmtModify":1705315738628,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/956327132","repostId":"951760817","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":951760817,"gmtCreate":1591064508929,"gmtModify":1705314002402,"author":{"id":"36989258284800","authorId":"36989258284800","name":"小虎老师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/6e9d88ae16a2b401169a727cf1457404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36989258284800","idStr":"36989258284800"},"themes":[],"title":"【乾貨】港股打新看這篇就夠了","htmlText":"本文是港股打新介紹的合集，全是乾貨，建議收藏後閱讀。這篇文章我們分爲4部分，分別講述港股打新的基礎內容，以阿里爲例關於港股打新的思考，以及網易京東打新的看點。 港股打新的基礎內容 <a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/college/column/C20181129061926867?videoId=20181128065521548\" target=\"_blank\">基礎課程：港股入門</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&amp;page=/college/course&amp;rndata={&quot;gid&quot;:&quot;C20201112094916999&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\">基礎課程：美港股打新指南</a> <a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/college/column/C20181129085311242\" target=\"_blank\">公開課：兩節課搞懂港股打新</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/918019296\" target=\"_blank\">公開課：從0到1詳解港股打新史，如何看待2020年的港股打新行情？</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/907179884\" target=\"_blank\">兩年半港股打新大數據，告訴你怎樣打新最合適</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/208632\" target=\"_blank\">2017港股打新策略細究——大數據告訴你該怎樣對待新股</a>","listText":"本文是港股打新介紹的合集，全是乾貨，建議收藏後閱讀。這篇文章我們分爲4部分，分別講述港股打新的基礎內容，以阿里爲例關於港股打新的思考，以及網易京東打新的看點。 港股打新的基礎內容 <a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/college/column/C20181129061926867?videoId=20181128065521548\" target=\"_blank\">基礎課程：港股入門</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&amp;page=/college/course&amp;rndata={&quot;gid&quot;:&quot;C20201112094916999&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\">基礎課程：美港股打新指南</a> <a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/college/column/C20181129085311242\" target=\"_blank\">公開課：兩節課搞懂港股打新</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/918019296\" target=\"_blank\">公開課：從0到1詳解港股打新史，如何看待2020年的港股打新行情？</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/907179884\" target=\"_blank\">兩年半港股打新大數據，告訴你怎樣打新最合適</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/208632\" target=\"_blank\">2017港股打新策略細究——大數據告訴你該怎樣對待新股</a>","text":"本文是港股打新介紹的合集，全是乾貨，建議收藏後閱讀。這篇文章我們分爲4部分，分別講述港股打新的基礎內容，以阿里爲例關於港股打新的思考，以及網易京東打新的看點。 港股打新的基礎內容 基礎課程：港股入門 基礎課程：美港股打新指南 公開課：兩節課搞懂港股打新 公開課：從0到1詳解港股打新史，如何看待2020年的港股打新行情？ 兩年半港股打新大數據，告訴你怎樣打新最合適 2017港股打新策略細究——大數據告訴你該怎樣對待新股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4286f1d671264f49b8a7b616e979dfbe","width":"225","height":"225"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/951760817","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":950534505,"gmtCreate":1589445761207,"gmtModify":1705309856375,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/950534505","repostId":"950646949","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":950646949,"gmtCreate":1589380852281,"gmtModify":1705309676285,"author":{"id":"3500430567020304","authorId":"3500430567020304","name":"卡布斯说投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ffde0c8f52183fe27f9ffb66095bf31","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500430567020304","idStr":"3500430567020304"},"themes":[],"title":"你好 蔚來， 年收益20%","htmlText":"2020關注新能源上中下游投資機會，以點布面，來深度挖掘投資領域，期待有超出凡俗的收益 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a>先說下游結論，蔚來汽車，去年12月在2.65買入並且持有的一家公司，持有期間需要不斷推理分析蔚來汽車的發展，此篇文章，是1.0版本 以下的分析是最近的結論 第一：蔚來2020年銷量 第二：蔚來產品利潤 第三：蔚來生存風險 1 、蔚來2020年銷量 截止4月底，4月蔚來ES6交付3155臺，累計2020年交付6993臺， 而自2018年6月開始交付以來，蔚來全品牌累積交付38906臺，包括20923臺ES8和17983臺ES6 總體蔚來銷量向上，在疫情期間的表現證明今年新能源車的勢頭， 今年蔚來的三款車同時在發力，ES6補上短板，同時新車EC6今年下半年也可以銷售並且交付 保持每個月3000臺左右銷售量，可以預測蔚來2020年全年銷售可達到27000臺車，ES6優勢排在首選，新車EC6預測第二，ES8預測第三， ES6目前已實現毛利，而不是買一輛虧損一輛，EC6價格還未出，預計價格30w以下，具體以官網數據爲準 蔚來汽車快速來搶佔新能源市場，筆者相信，蔚來絕對有未來 2、蔚來產品利潤 熟知蔚來的投資者，都知道蔚來銷售一輛車就虧損一輛，但今年，有一個新的里程，將虧損率降至負，實現盈利。 李斌在二季度說明2Q毛利率轉正，年底毛利率爲2位數 只要毛利率爲正，規模成本降低，就可以產生好的效益，賣的車越多，毛利越多，可以抵消成本開支，實現負爲正， 在這樣的基礎下，蔚來纔可以真正盈利 3、蔚來生存風險 我用3個緯度來分析，蔚來存在的危機，用最簡單語言來分析 1: 銷售下滑，因補貼逐步在減少 2:債權到期，2月份發行2個億債券到期，無力償還 3:居高不下的成本，導致現金流，再次","listText":"2020關注新能源上中下游投資機會，以點布面，來深度挖掘投資領域，期待有超出凡俗的收益 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a>先說下游結論，蔚來汽車，去年12月在2.65買入並且持有的一家公司，持有期間需要不斷推理分析蔚來汽車的發展，此篇文章，是1.0版本 以下的分析是最近的結論 第一：蔚來2020年銷量 第二：蔚來產品利潤 第三：蔚來生存風險 1 、蔚來2020年銷量 截止4月底，4月蔚來ES6交付3155臺，累計2020年交付6993臺， 而自2018年6月開始交付以來，蔚來全品牌累積交付38906臺，包括20923臺ES8和17983臺ES6 總體蔚來銷量向上，在疫情期間的表現證明今年新能源車的勢頭， 今年蔚來的三款車同時在發力，ES6補上短板，同時新車EC6今年下半年也可以銷售並且交付 保持每個月3000臺左右銷售量，可以預測蔚來2020年全年銷售可達到27000臺車，ES6優勢排在首選，新車EC6預測第二，ES8預測第三， ES6目前已實現毛利，而不是買一輛虧損一輛，EC6價格還未出，預計價格30w以下，具體以官網數據爲準 蔚來汽車快速來搶佔新能源市場，筆者相信，蔚來絕對有未來 2、蔚來產品利潤 熟知蔚來的投資者，都知道蔚來銷售一輛車就虧損一輛，但今年，有一個新的里程，將虧損率降至負，實現盈利。 李斌在二季度說明2Q毛利率轉正，年底毛利率爲2位數 只要毛利率爲正，規模成本降低，就可以產生好的效益，賣的車越多，毛利越多，可以抵消成本開支，實現負爲正， 在這樣的基礎下，蔚來纔可以真正盈利 3、蔚來生存風險 我用3個緯度來分析，蔚來存在的危機，用最簡單語言來分析 1: 銷售下滑，因補貼逐步在減少 2:債權到期，2月份發行2個億債券到期，無力償還 3:居高不下的成本，導致現金流，再次","text":"2020關注新能源上中下游投資機會，以點布面，來深度挖掘投資領域，期待有超出凡俗的收益 $蔚來(NIO)$先說下游結論，蔚來汽車，去年12月在2.65買入並且持有的一家公司，持有期間需要不斷推理分析蔚來汽車的發展，此篇文章，是1.0版本 以下的分析是最近的結論 第一：蔚來2020年銷量 第二：蔚來產品利潤 第三：蔚來生存風險 1 、蔚來2020年銷量 截止4月底，4月蔚來ES6交付3155臺，累計2020年交付6993臺， 而自2018年6月開始交付以來，蔚來全品牌累積交付38906臺，包括20923臺ES8和17983臺ES6 總體蔚來銷量向上，在疫情期間的表現證明今年新能源車的勢頭， 今年蔚來的三款車同時在發力，ES6補上短板，同時新車EC6今年下半年也可以銷售並且交付 保持每個月3000臺左右銷售量，可以預測蔚來2020年全年銷售可達到27000臺車，ES6優勢排在首選，新車EC6預測第二，ES8預測第三， ES6目前已實現毛利，而不是買一輛虧損一輛，EC6價格還未出，預計價格30w以下，具體以官網數據爲準 蔚來汽車快速來搶佔新能源市場，筆者相信，蔚來絕對有未來 2、蔚來產品利潤 熟知蔚來的投資者，都知道蔚來銷售一輛車就虧損一輛，但今年，有一個新的里程，將虧損率降至負，實現盈利。 李斌在二季度說明2Q毛利率轉正，年底毛利率爲2位數 只要毛利率爲正，規模成本降低，就可以產生好的效益，賣的車越多，毛利越多，可以抵消成本開支，實現負爲正， 在這樣的基礎下，蔚來纔可以真正盈利 3、蔚來生存風險 我用3個緯度來分析，蔚來存在的危機，用最簡單語言來分析 1: 銷售下滑，因補貼逐步在減少 2:債權到期，2月份發行2個億債券到期，無力償還 3:居高不下的成本，導致現金流，再次","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11329982145e17d6e081b59f789e4b07","width":"1080","height":"413"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/950646949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":627245994,"gmtCreate":1678377178619,"gmtModify":1678377178619,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627245994","repostId":"627228665","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":627228665,"gmtCreate":1678363431760,"gmtModify":1678364274432,"author":{"id":"3530336145106436","authorId":"3530336145106436","name":"晚点LatePost","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d21492eaee7760148309cf65d0478c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3530336145106436","idStr":"3530336145106436"},"themes":[],"title":"劉強東詳解京東低價戰略：一個共識、兩條公式和三大痛點","htmlText":"擁有共識，對此時此刻的京東來說，是最重要的。文丨陳晶 管藝雯編輯丨管藝雯2023 年 2 月 1 日晚上，京東創始人劉強東在北京亦莊總部大廈組織了一場飯局，就在幾個小時前，他剛剛從境外落地北京，此前兩三年他不常回來。這也是 2020 年疫情之後，劉強東第一次線下和管培生見面吃飯。他教誨管培生們 “年輕人要沉得住氣”，一位當晚在現場的人士說，看得出來劉強東狀態不錯，當晚喝了不少酒。現場有人因叫他 “劉總” 而被罰酒，多年來，劉強東堅持公司內部稱呼他爲 “東哥”。此後幾天，劉強東又馬不停蹄地約見了多位京東中高管吃飯，和他們聊戰略、聊業務、聊如今京東面臨的挑戰。儘管這位創始人已退出業務一線，但他從未離開。去年底，劉強東通過一次徹底的組織調整和一場激烈的內部講話從上到下統一了共識，確定把 “低價戰略” 列爲京東零售未來三年最重要的戰略，百億補貼是這一戰略大方向下，京東零售最先打出的第一件利器。“今天京東在品牌方、零售行業地位的下降，本質是因爲其他渠道的快速增長。” 在 2022 年底的京東零售內部大會上，劉強東語氣嚴肅，三個多小時的講話中，“低價” 一詞出現了幾十次。京東集團 CEO 徐雷更是強調了低價戰略的刻不容緩，他對參會的六千多名採銷員工說，“今天我們堅定了要做低價，大家意志統一了，以後的改變特別多、特別難，但沒辦法，（低價）這條路，我們必須走下去。”京東在 2019 年選擇了 “向上走”，當時內部定下的最重要目標是 “實現有質量的增長”，搜索流量和資源都更傾向給利潤更高、價格更高的自營商品 —— 這也更符合京東 “正品行貨” 的調性。這一年劉強東也看到了下沉市場的機會，他帶隊在內部創業做社區團購項目，當時京東也推出了拼購業務 “京喜”，還進入了微信一級入口，但始終沒有舉全公司之力投入。也是在這一年，創始人黃崢在內部講話中稱拼多多真實交易 GMV（成交額）超過了京東。而根據兩","listText":"擁有共識，對此時此刻的京東來說，是最重要的。文丨陳晶 管藝雯編輯丨管藝雯2023 年 2 月 1 日晚上，京東創始人劉強東在北京亦莊總部大廈組織了一場飯局，就在幾個小時前，他剛剛從境外落地北京，此前兩三年他不常回來。這也是 2020 年疫情之後，劉強東第一次線下和管培生見面吃飯。他教誨管培生們 “年輕人要沉得住氣”，一位當晚在現場的人士說，看得出來劉強東狀態不錯，當晚喝了不少酒。現場有人因叫他 “劉總” 而被罰酒，多年來，劉強東堅持公司內部稱呼他爲 “東哥”。此後幾天，劉強東又馬不停蹄地約見了多位京東中高管吃飯，和他們聊戰略、聊業務、聊如今京東面臨的挑戰。儘管這位創始人已退出業務一線，但他從未離開。去年底，劉強東通過一次徹底的組織調整和一場激烈的內部講話從上到下統一了共識，確定把 “低價戰略” 列爲京東零售未來三年最重要的戰略，百億補貼是這一戰略大方向下，京東零售最先打出的第一件利器。“今天京東在品牌方、零售行業地位的下降，本質是因爲其他渠道的快速增長。” 在 2022 年底的京東零售內部大會上，劉強東語氣嚴肅，三個多小時的講話中，“低價” 一詞出現了幾十次。京東集團 CEO 徐雷更是強調了低價戰略的刻不容緩，他對參會的六千多名採銷員工說，“今天我們堅定了要做低價，大家意志統一了，以後的改變特別多、特別難，但沒辦法，（低價）這條路，我們必須走下去。”京東在 2019 年選擇了 “向上走”，當時內部定下的最重要目標是 “實現有質量的增長”，搜索流量和資源都更傾向給利潤更高、價格更高的自營商品 —— 這也更符合京東 “正品行貨” 的調性。這一年劉強東也看到了下沉市場的機會，他帶隊在內部創業做社區團購項目，當時京東也推出了拼購業務 “京喜”，還進入了微信一級入口，但始終沒有舉全公司之力投入。也是在這一年，創始人黃崢在內部講話中稱拼多多真實交易 GMV（成交額）超過了京東。而根據兩","text":"擁有共識，對此時此刻的京東來說，是最重要的。文丨陳晶 管藝雯編輯丨管藝雯2023 年 2 月 1 日晚上，京東創始人劉強東在北京亦莊總部大廈組織了一場飯局，就在幾個小時前，他剛剛從境外落地北京，此前兩三年他不常回來。這也是 2020 年疫情之後，劉強東第一次線下和管培生見面吃飯。他教誨管培生們 “年輕人要沉得住氣”，一位當晚在現場的人士說，看得出來劉強東狀態不錯，當晚喝了不少酒。現場有人因叫他 “劉總” 而被罰酒，多年來，劉強東堅持公司內部稱呼他爲 “東哥”。此後幾天，劉強東又馬不停蹄地約見了多位京東中高管吃飯，和他們聊戰略、聊業務、聊如今京東面臨的挑戰。儘管這位創始人已退出業務一線，但他從未離開。去年底，劉強東通過一次徹底的組織調整和一場激烈的內部講話從上到下統一了共識，確定把 “低價戰略” 列爲京東零售未來三年最重要的戰略，百億補貼是這一戰略大方向下，京東零售最先打出的第一件利器。“今天京東在品牌方、零售行業地位的下降，本質是因爲其他渠道的快速增長。” 在 2022 年底的京東零售內部大會上，劉強東語氣嚴肅，三個多小時的講話中，“低價” 一詞出現了幾十次。京東集團 CEO 徐雷更是強調了低價戰略的刻不容緩，他對參會的六千多名採銷員工說，“今天我們堅定了要做低價，大家意志統一了，以後的改變特別多、特別難，但沒辦法，（低價）這條路，我們必須走下去。”京東在 2019 年選擇了 “向上走”，當時內部定下的最重要目標是 “實現有質量的增長”，搜索流量和資源都更傾向給利潤更高、價格更高的自營商品 —— 這也更符合京東 “正品行貨” 的調性。這一年劉強東也看到了下沉市場的機會，他帶隊在內部創業做社區團購項目，當時京東也推出了拼購業務 “京喜”，還進入了微信一級入口，但始終沒有舉全公司之力投入。也是在這一年，創始人黃崢在內部講話中稱拼多多真實交易 GMV（成交額）超過了京東。而根據兩","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cdc25a35196a530be1c3013e42237a5","width":"1080","height":"675"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627228665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835242824,"gmtCreate":1629724285068,"gmtModify":1676530111704,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835242824","repostId":"832503152","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":832503152,"gmtCreate":1629647162776,"gmtModify":1676530085572,"author":{"id":"3548373961136253","authorId":"3548373961136253","name":"股市打野","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deafc8410717476bb1a942700f314f75","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548373961136253","idStr":"3548373961136253"},"themes":[],"title":"8月23日：軍工買機彈，收益翻一番；醫藥加白酒，嗩吶吹一宿","htmlText":"一、軍工行業將會和以往完全不同軍工行情主要的因素是“十四五”國防現代化建設，投資邏輯也從以往的事件催化變成以盈利改善爲預期。在1997年的規劃中提出2050年基本實現國防和軍隊現代化，在十九大中將該規劃提前到了2035年。這國防和軍隊現代化是一個什麼概念呢？可以參考海灣戰爭美軍的軍事配置，就是那樣一個程度。二、軍工投資主線軍工的需求主要偏計劃性，決定了對供應鏈可靠性和對產能投入計劃性高的要求，尤其是配套核心、供應核心裝備的環節和公司。基於全球空中力量全面競爭，多軍種軍機現代化建設將提速，中國各類軍機數量都和美、俄存在數量差異，美國目前軍機是我國4倍以上，未來增長空間較大。我國戰機主要以二代機和三代機爲主，而美國戰機主要以三代機和四代機爲主，且四代機裝列加速。今年我國軍隊加大實彈演練，導彈消化有所提升，高值消耗品導彈，現代化戰爭的主要手段，以及軍用電子元件如連接器、MLCC，關鍵材料如石英纖維、碳纖維、高溫合金等，將帶來結構性機會。三、導彈的三個邏輯1.導彈是後期武器平臺加速列裝的後周期品種2.實戰和訓練的高值消耗品3.未來信息化戰爭模式下，主要進攻武器<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002179\">$中航光電(002179)$</a>：國內防務領域連接器龍頭，公司生產連接器覆蓋航空、航天、艦船、兵器等多個領域，兼具產品競爭優勢，未來有望受益軍工需求釋放紅利。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300395\">$菲利華(300395)$</a>：國內唯一軍用石英纖維供應商，也是唯一獲得國際三大半導體原產設備商認證的石英材料企業，產品廣泛用於機載雷達罩、航天器隔熱和耐高溫結構上。主機廠：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">$中航沈飛(600760)$</a>","listText":"一、軍工行業將會和以往完全不同軍工行情主要的因素是“十四五”國防現代化建設，投資邏輯也從以往的事件催化變成以盈利改善爲預期。在1997年的規劃中提出2050年基本實現國防和軍隊現代化，在十九大中將該規劃提前到了2035年。這國防和軍隊現代化是一個什麼概念呢？可以參考海灣戰爭美軍的軍事配置，就是那樣一個程度。二、軍工投資主線軍工的需求主要偏計劃性，決定了對供應鏈可靠性和對產能投入計劃性高的要求，尤其是配套核心、供應核心裝備的環節和公司。基於全球空中力量全面競爭，多軍種軍機現代化建設將提速，中國各類軍機數量都和美、俄存在數量差異，美國目前軍機是我國4倍以上，未來增長空間較大。我國戰機主要以二代機和三代機爲主，而美國戰機主要以三代機和四代機爲主，且四代機裝列加速。今年我國軍隊加大實彈演練，導彈消化有所提升，高值消耗品導彈，現代化戰爭的主要手段，以及軍用電子元件如連接器、MLCC，關鍵材料如石英纖維、碳纖維、高溫合金等，將帶來結構性機會。三、導彈的三個邏輯1.導彈是後期武器平臺加速列裝的後周期品種2.實戰和訓練的高值消耗品3.未來信息化戰爭模式下，主要進攻武器<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002179\">$中航光電(002179)$</a>：國內防務領域連接器龍頭，公司生產連接器覆蓋航空、航天、艦船、兵器等多個領域，兼具產品競爭優勢，未來有望受益軍工需求釋放紅利。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300395\">$菲利華(300395)$</a>：國內唯一軍用石英纖維供應商，也是唯一獲得國際三大半導體原產設備商認證的石英材料企業，產品廣泛用於機載雷達罩、航天器隔熱和耐高溫結構上。主機廠：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">$中航沈飛(600760)$</a>","text":"一、軍工行業將會和以往完全不同軍工行情主要的因素是“十四五”國防現代化建設，投資邏輯也從以往的事件催化變成以盈利改善爲預期。在1997年的規劃中提出2050年基本實現國防和軍隊現代化，在十九大中將該規劃提前到了2035年。這國防和軍隊現代化是一個什麼概念呢？可以參考海灣戰爭美軍的軍事配置，就是那樣一個程度。二、軍工投資主線軍工的需求主要偏計劃性，決定了對供應鏈可靠性和對產能投入計劃性高的要求，尤其是配套核心、供應核心裝備的環節和公司。基於全球空中力量全面競爭，多軍種軍機現代化建設將提速，中國各類軍機數量都和美、俄存在數量差異，美國目前軍機是我國4倍以上，未來增長空間較大。我國戰機主要以二代機和三代機爲主，而美國戰機主要以三代機和四代機爲主，且四代機裝列加速。今年我國軍隊加大實彈演練，導彈消化有所提升，高值消耗品導彈，現代化戰爭的主要手段，以及軍用電子元件如連接器、MLCC，關鍵材料如石英纖維、碳纖維、高溫合金等，將帶來結構性機會。三、導彈的三個邏輯1.導彈是後期武器平臺加速列裝的後周期品種2.實戰和訓練的高值消耗品3.未來信息化戰爭模式下，主要進攻武器$中航光電(002179)$：國內防務領域連接器龍頭，公司生產連接器覆蓋航空、航天、艦船、兵器等多個領域，兼具產品競爭優勢，未來有望受益軍工需求釋放紅利。$菲利華(300395)$：國內唯一軍用石英纖維供應商，也是唯一獲得國際三大半導體原產設備商認證的石英材料企業，產品廣泛用於機載雷達罩、航天器隔熱和耐高溫結構上。主機廠：$中航沈飛(600760)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832503152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373021804,"gmtCreate":1618804603208,"gmtModify":1704715098981,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373021804","repostId":"2126903749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365168284,"gmtCreate":1614704000748,"gmtModify":1704774331431,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"(^^)","listText":"(^^)","text":"(^^)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365168284","repostId":"1189134615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332364454,"gmtCreate":1610339709878,"gmtModify":1704982980092,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332364454","repostId":"1140016925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":390211708,"gmtCreate":1605798446504,"gmtModify":1704962405308,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/390211708","repostId":"1199570467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199570467","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605784535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199570467?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-19 19:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan Chase's Latest Report: 64 Pictures Tell You the Full Picture of the Current Situation of US Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199570467","media":"杰晶维基","summary":"导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下","content":"<p>Introduction: JP Morgan Asset Management's Guide to Markets report series is an article we must read and will definitely translate. In this illustrated report, it clearly describes the position of the global asset classes and the US stock market, as well as the main contradictions in the current market. Here is our full-text translation of the JP Morgan Guide To Markets for the third quarter, which we hope will help you.</p><p>Article Source | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020</p><p><b>Third Quarter 2020 Market Guide</b></p><p><b>Stock Market</b></p><p>The S&P 500 at the inflection point: The S&P 500 rose 401% from its low on March 9, 2009 to its high on February 19, 2020, and then fell 8% so far (June 30, 2020)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p><p>S&P 500 valuation was 21.72X on June 30, 2020, and its average valuation level over the past 25 years was 16.39X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>P/E and Stock Return</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Earnings in all sectors of the S&P 500 Index declined year-on-year in 2020H1, with the energy market seeing the biggest decline</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Source of EPS growth: 2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS growth was-48.7% annualized, with profit margin growth of 47.3% annualized among the three contributing factors, which was the main reason for negative EPS growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Value VS Growth: Value VS Growth Yield of 0.97 in 2020H1, Value Index Macro has 56.1% of individual stocks with a beta greater than 1</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Different Styles of Earnings and Valuations: On a quarterly basis, the type with small market cap and high growth earned the best, reaching 30.6%; On an annual basis, the type with large market capitalization and high growth performed the best, reaching 9.8%, followed by the medium market capitalization with high growth, at 4.2%, and the other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Earnings and valuations of different sectors: In terms of quarter, the consumer sector is the best, reaching 32.9%; On an annual basis, the technology sector performed the best at 15%, followed by the consumer sector at 7.2%, and all other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Factor Performance: The momentum factor had the best return from 2005 to 2019, reaching 11%, followed by the low volatility factor at 10.2%, and the small market cap factor had the lowest return at 7.9%, with the largest volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p><p>Annualized earnings and pullback during the year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Market volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The probability of a bear market and a subsequent bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>The stock market since 1990</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><b>Macroeconomic market</b></p><p>Past recessions in the United States</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Economic growth and the composition of GDP: 67.7% of US nominal GDP in 2020Q1 was consumption, 17.9% was government spending, 12.9% was investment excluding real estate, and 4.0% was real estate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>COVID-19: U.S. confirmed cases, as well as deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>High-frequency economic data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Consumer finance: 27% of U.S. consumer assets are in real estate, 21% in retirement funds, and 66% of liabilities are in mortgages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Income Inequality in the U.S. Economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Long-term drivers of the U.S. economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal finances</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Employment and wages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Business sentiment and economic cycles</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Employment and income of people with different educational levels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Dollar Drivers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Crude oil market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal policy rate: FOMC June minutes show that U.S. GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate will reach 9.3% in Q4, and the personal consumption expenditure deflator PCE will be 0.8%; Long-term outlook U.S. GDP growth at 1.8%, unemployment at 4.1%, PCEWEI at 2.0%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>The Fed's Balance Sheet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Interest rates and inflation rates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p><p><b>Fixed income market dynamics</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Yield curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Fixed Rate of Return and Its Relationship with Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>High Yield Bonds: The average 30-year high yield default rate was 3.56%, compared to 4.85% as of June 30, 2020;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Corporate bonds: the bonds of the government sector were 103.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, which is at a historical high, the bonds of the household sector were 75.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the non-financial corporate bonds were 74.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019; Baa investment-grade corporate bonds accounted for 48.6% at the end of the second quarter of 2020, down from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Negative Yield Debt: As of May 31, 2020, the Japanese government held negative yield government debt of $5.35 trillion, European governments held negative yield government debt of $5.49 trillion, and global negative yield corporate debt of $1.27 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Liquidity in the bond market: Bond inventories of major bond underwriters accounted for 0.3% of overall U.S. corporate bonds in the first quarter of 2020, an increase from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global Monetary Policy: It is forecast that the bond purchases of major central banks in developed countries will continue to increase significantly in 2021, with the Federal Reserve bond purchases still the largest, with a significant increase compared with 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Global fixed income markets: U.S. bonds were US$41 trillion, other developed countries except the U.S. were US$47 trillion, and emerging markets were US$26 trillion at the end of 2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Fixed income segment yield comparison: Emerging US dollar bonds had the highest average yield at 7.3% annualized from 2005 to 2019, but also had the highest volatility at 10.6%, followed by high yield bonds, and ABS had the lowest yield</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Global stock markets: The U.S. stock market (represented by the S&P 500) has the highest average yield in the past 15 years, at 9.0%, followed by emerging markets at 7.8%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Source of global equity income: From 2005 to 2019, the biggest contributor to the yield of the U.S. equity market was income growth, followed by dividends, and the valuation multiple contributed the least; Negative currency contribution in emerging markets and European markets except the UK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Currency and international equity income: A stronger US dollar is bad for the return of the international equity market, while a weaker US dollar is beneficial to the international equity market; For MSCI Global ex-U.S. Index Earnings in 2019, the U.S. dollar had a negative 10.8% impact on it</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>U.S. and international equity markets at inflection points: S&P 500 price gains of 401% from 2009 to June 30, 2020, followed by an 8% pullback, while ACWI excluding U.S. equity markets index gains of 143% over the same period, followed by a 19% pullback</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>International Equity Earnings and Valuations: Global Listed Companies Earnings Slipped in 2020; From a valuation perspective, the current U.S. stock market has the highest PE at 21.77X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global economic growth: In May 2020, the service PMI index was 35.2, and the manufacturing index was 42.4%, both of which were below the boom-bust line, but both rebounded significantly from the previous month; Global real GDP growth was-1.7% in the first quarter of 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>COVID-19: Global confirmed cases and deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Global economic high-frequency activity index: developed countries have all rebounded from the low bottom in March, but are thought to be below 0; Among the developing countries, Japan, Taiwan and Russia have recovered faster</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Service sector momentum: The service sector PMI indices of major developed countries all rebounded in June 2020, with France reaching 50.3</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Global inflation rate: The inflation rate in most mainstream countries of the world fell in May compared with April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Financial support for COVID-19: Italy, Germany and Japan have the strongest financial support for COVID-19, with Italy's fiscal expenditure reaching 34% of GDP</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>China's economic situation: China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was-6.8%, of which investment was-1.5%, consumption was-4.4% and net exports were-1.0%; Projected fiscal deficit of 14% of GDP in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Emerging markets: The economic growth rate of GDP in emerging markets is expected to remain positive in 2020, but it is expected to be negative in developed countries, and the difference between the two has improved from the previous month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Hedge Funds: Expect Macro Hedge Fund Performance to Return Relative to Hedge Fund Research Index in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Private equity market: Overall, the yield of private equity market is higher than that of MSCI ACWI global secondary market stock; In 2019, US private equity funds completed raising but have not yet invested about $1.2 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The Alerian MLP ETF yields as much as 15.2% annualized in the alternative investment category, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields just 0.7%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p><p>Global commodities: The price of gold was $1,801 an ounce on June 30, 2020, which is more consistent with the price adjusted for inflation, and the trend is more obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>The global asset allocation portfolio (25% S&P 500, 10% Russell 2000, 15% MSCI EAFE, 5% MSCI EME, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate, 5% Bloomberg Barclays January-March Treasury Bond, 5% Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond, 5% Bloomberg Barclays Commodity, and 5% NAREIT Equity REIT) yielded 19.5% in 2019 and 6.6% annualized in 2005-2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>Fund inflows: From 2007, a total of 2,611 billion USD of mutual funds and ETFs flowed into the bond market, which declined in 2020; $1,467 billion flowed into the stock market and $602 billion into other large asset classes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>The average annualized stock market yield over the past 20 years was 11.3%, bonds yielded 5.9% annualized, and the 50/50 portfolio yielded 8.9%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>The alternative asset class has the highest annualized yield for REITs over the past 20 years (1999-2019) at 11.6%, followed by precious metal gold at 8.6%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>At the end of the second quarter, 37 percent of Republicans rated the national economy as good or good, while only 11 percent of Democrats rated it as good or good</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>A $100,000 deposit account can earn $280 in 2020, but it needs $1,236 to pay for negative gains from inflation, $2,046 to eliminate negative gains from education inflation, and $4,904 to eliminate negative gains from health care</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>","source":"lsy1595209191943","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase's Latest Report: 64 Pictures Tell You the Full Picture of the Current Situation of US Stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杰晶维基</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-11-19 19:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Introduction: JP Morgan Asset Management's Guide to Markets report series is an article we must read and will definitely translate. In this illustrated report, it clearly describes the position of the global asset classes and the US stock market, as well as the main contradictions in the current market. Here is our full-text translation of the JP Morgan Guide To Markets for the third quarter, which we hope will help you.</p><p>Article Source | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020</p><p><b>Third Quarter 2020 Market Guide</b></p><p><b>Stock Market</b></p><p>The S&P 500 at the inflection point: The S&P 500 rose 401% from its low on March 9, 2009 to its high on February 19, 2020, and then fell 8% so far (June 30, 2020)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18e0ffe1c0316a38c8113324472ffb3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\"></p><p>S&P 500 valuation was 21.72X on June 30, 2020, and its average valuation level over the past 25 years was 16.39X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e11e55741b65a5d78baa25c0c899a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>P/E and Stock Return</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110b1789625eae158cc2bf20798185f3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Earnings in all sectors of the S&P 500 Index declined year-on-year in 2020H1, with the energy market seeing the biggest decline</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537452eb0bd669c8f539ef441a83d258\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Source of EPS growth: 2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS growth was-48.7% annualized, with profit margin growth of 47.3% annualized among the three contributing factors, which was the main reason for negative EPS growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7919c34ea590e51d964001dd7b18921\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"712\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd3b5092101c18b05430fa996692b6b\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Value VS Growth: Value VS Growth Yield of 0.97 in 2020H1, Value Index Macro has 56.1% of individual stocks with a beta greater than 1</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f57d47f51477c3e49fbab285e3ff6e\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Different Styles of Earnings and Valuations: On a quarterly basis, the type with small market cap and high growth earned the best, reaching 30.6%; On an annual basis, the type with large market capitalization and high growth performed the best, reaching 9.8%, followed by the medium market capitalization with high growth, at 4.2%, and the other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92dd309dda7f7b8d8df70084da84456\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Earnings and valuations of different sectors: In terms of quarter, the consumer sector is the best, reaching 32.9%; On an annual basis, the technology sector performed the best at 15%, followed by the consumer sector at 7.2%, and all other types showed negative growth</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a01ead2a01d33a4e1a034bc49ab941\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"729\"></p><p>Factor Performance: The momentum factor had the best return from 2005 to 2019, reaching 11%, followed by the low volatility factor at 10.2%, and the small market cap factor had the lowest return at 7.9%, with the largest volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29327a097af15b1770aa626bd3c12dde\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"739\"></p><p>Annualized earnings and pullback during the year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc5b62ed92fb215203dacf6bde9324\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Market volatility</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae8b1a5a5eeb6c5fcd3b6308e81e29f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The probability of a bear market and a subsequent bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5fe5085decf2bc580c48c3ace506e2\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>The stock market since 1990</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fe0c2c007b848ad21f722bdc8a0cef\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><b>Macroeconomic market</b></p><p>Past recessions in the United States</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b03d7344437383b250399dd3daed75\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Economic growth and the composition of GDP: 67.7% of US nominal GDP in 2020Q1 was consumption, 17.9% was government spending, 12.9% was investment excluding real estate, and 4.0% was real estate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8f6de1c9e775f4e447be266ac8c83c\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>COVID-19: U.S. confirmed cases, as well as deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe3abac28505c317b841989aba61441\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>High-frequency economic data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b499f833a7fc507a2acf22536f77ce\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Consumer finance: 27% of U.S. consumer assets are in real estate, 21% in retirement funds, and 66% of liabilities are in mortgages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46864dd1b0ffda4daebef00c88dfedd8\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Income Inequality in the U.S. Economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c8953d94bbf9699ec7c8f2585483e0\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Long-term drivers of the U.S. economy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1452bc9690088e93fcc24cce8ed0a1cd\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal finances</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b9ac282acb1938128b122c4ae350126\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Employment and wages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f799be89847ceece12cdd7e8d3f63f0f\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Business sentiment and economic cycles</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5638d3cf6e5ae0565c687956403e942\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Employment and income of people with different educational levels</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d458389393acbdfd36154bf87f55d72\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Inflation</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3a6df4d4c52ebe2ea87446a7fe5894\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"714\"></p><p>Dollar Drivers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4291d052609e7a56fd89cdf14b786\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>Crude oil market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611738157dd48a34a8e2aa1ac371d972\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Federal policy rate: FOMC June minutes show that U.S. GDP will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate will reach 9.3% in Q4, and the personal consumption expenditure deflator PCE will be 0.8%; Long-term outlook U.S. GDP growth at 1.8%, unemployment at 4.1%, PCEWEI at 2.0%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c3fe73620490f799abce304edd13ea\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>The Fed's Balance Sheet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af53b31bbd2fb1ad2f165671fd99c02\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Interest rates and inflation rates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d3729517c089d5da26a53c848470917\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"709\"></p><p><b>Fixed income market dynamics</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffcebd15c6eefc404875cf47357f58a2\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Yield curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bb5950dcdb305cc7297025ce997d45\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Fixed Rate of Return and Its Relationship with Stock Market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513ddb847ef2cf3c2bcd2e30f3ab1c66\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>High Yield Bonds: The average 30-year high yield default rate was 3.56%, compared to 4.85% as of June 30, 2020;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f25ad52cd22baea2f5715a902886ae3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p>Corporate bonds: the bonds of the government sector were 103.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, which is at a historical high, the bonds of the household sector were 75.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the non-financial corporate bonds were 74.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019; Baa investment-grade corporate bonds accounted for 48.6% at the end of the second quarter of 2020, down from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041a2e9deb4a46b72308beb86d76d638\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>Negative Yield Debt: As of May 31, 2020, the Japanese government held negative yield government debt of $5.35 trillion, European governments held negative yield government debt of $5.49 trillion, and global negative yield corporate debt of $1.27 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45315747bbe42ceb007d64ebe88fc74f\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Liquidity in the bond market: Bond inventories of major bond underwriters accounted for 0.3% of overall U.S. corporate bonds in the first quarter of 2020, an increase from the previous quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8049bd9b6540852ee8b1ff0db1559e60\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global Monetary Policy: It is forecast that the bond purchases of major central banks in developed countries will continue to increase significantly in 2021, with the Federal Reserve bond purchases still the largest, with a significant increase compared with 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd569de80d6dc612825fe1e2f8272c8\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>Global fixed income markets: U.S. bonds were US$41 trillion, other developed countries except the U.S. were US$47 trillion, and emerging markets were US$26 trillion at the end of 2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25194b438ce9d426e77a832650176ad8\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"722\"></p><p>Fixed income segment yield comparison: Emerging US dollar bonds had the highest average yield at 7.3% annualized from 2005 to 2019, but also had the highest volatility at 10.6%, followed by high yield bonds, and ABS had the lowest yield</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45d1ea510a225f5830d7a25abc81049\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Global stock markets: The U.S. stock market (represented by the S&P 500) has the highest average yield in the past 15 years, at 9.0%, followed by emerging markets at 7.8%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eacb07cc66107de528d334016aa7219\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Source of global equity income: From 2005 to 2019, the biggest contributor to the yield of the U.S. equity market was income growth, followed by dividends, and the valuation multiple contributed the least; Negative currency contribution in emerging markets and European markets except the UK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4247d7c94c33c6853bad3f2ebceb960d\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Currency and international equity income: A stronger US dollar is bad for the return of the international equity market, while a weaker US dollar is beneficial to the international equity market; For MSCI Global ex-U.S. Index Earnings in 2019, the U.S. dollar had a negative 10.8% impact on it</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6774f10d1bfe39f0e8e33696b27e8f\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>U.S. and international equity markets at inflection points: S&P 500 price gains of 401% from 2009 to June 30, 2020, followed by an 8% pullback, while ACWI excluding U.S. equity markets index gains of 143% over the same period, followed by a 19% pullback</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095c48d9d78a4f1c01fe3cc2a4327c7\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>International Equity Earnings and Valuations: Global Listed Companies Earnings Slipped in 2020; From a valuation perspective, the current U.S. stock market has the highest PE at 21.77X</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6454026010a23666f23ab52abc0cddeb\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>Global economic growth: In May 2020, the service PMI index was 35.2, and the manufacturing index was 42.4%, both of which were below the boom-bust line, but both rebounded significantly from the previous month; Global real GDP growth was-1.7% in the first quarter of 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee3338968fa0ca9e427723452fdc52c3\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>COVID-19: Global confirmed cases and deaths</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6351ccfc46e8d2a4c24f64d30f88470\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"724\"></p><p>Global economic high-frequency activity index: developed countries have all rebounded from the low bottom in March, but are thought to be below 0; Among the developing countries, Japan, Taiwan and Russia have recovered faster</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89f78a253ebbba4020142b5f9ce938d\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>Service sector momentum: The service sector PMI indices of major developed countries all rebounded in June 2020, with France reaching 50.3</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079b0e943a0343cb8abda7840ba8b7c4\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>Global inflation rate: The inflation rate in most mainstream countries of the world fell in May compared with April</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b2d843b03e94187b223901aa7d6e5b\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p>Financial support for COVID-19: Italy, Germany and Japan have the strongest financial support for COVID-19, with Italy's fiscal expenditure reaching 34% of GDP</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0d15069c81607e61f0da3726b0b4d8\" tg-width=\"1062\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>China's economic situation: China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 was-6.8%, of which investment was-1.5%, consumption was-4.4% and net exports were-1.0%; Projected fiscal deficit of 14% of GDP in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9150d30e11c4c4cb9efbcb9e4167db\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Emerging markets: The economic growth rate of GDP in emerging markets is expected to remain positive in 2020, but it is expected to be negative in developed countries, and the difference between the two has improved from the previous month</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d84477b90e43ce2063dd7fa24a534\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"723\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0400abd09ad05bbd17dabfa6e3a6d05f\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"731\"></p><p>Hedge Funds: Expect Macro Hedge Fund Performance to Return Relative to Hedge Fund Research Index in 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b2d590c388dd2019c33254beede1a5\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>Private equity market: Overall, the yield of private equity market is higher than that of MSCI ACWI global secondary market stock; In 2019, US private equity funds completed raising but have not yet invested about $1.2 trillion</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482a12baff7d422cd3cc683781794138\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>The Alerian MLP ETF yields as much as 15.2% annualized in the alternative investment category, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yields just 0.7%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109a4978b330f77f8e99eaa03000af02\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"733\"></p><p>Global commodities: The price of gold was $1,801 an ounce on June 30, 2020, which is more consistent with the price adjusted for inflation, and the trend is more obvious</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f7e0e2b411db3ef5c04e690946d7285\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>The global asset allocation portfolio (25% S&P 500, 10% Russell 2000, 15% MSCI EAFE, 5% MSCI EME, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate, 5% Bloomberg Barclays January-March Treasury Bond, 5% Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond, 5% Bloomberg Barclays Commodity, and 5% NAREIT Equity REIT) yielded 19.5% in 2019 and 6.6% annualized in 2005-2019</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a6c12de58ceacf8ffdf02ec2409b96\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>Fund inflows: From 2007, a total of 2,611 billion USD of mutual funds and ETFs flowed into the bond market, which declined in 2020; $1,467 billion flowed into the stock market and $602 billion into other large asset classes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63401695f4ac6d02dc3419af9728b772\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>The average annualized stock market yield over the past 20 years was 11.3%, bonds yielded 5.9% annualized, and the 50/50 portfolio yielded 8.9%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95545786d706ca43310fbd15eae7bbe\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><p>The alternative asset class has the highest annualized yield for REITs over the past 20 years (1999-2019) at 11.6%, followed by precious metal gold at 8.6%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f6e4a52ed3ed61103cb95a7723d462\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p>At the end of the second quarter, 37 percent of Republicans rated the national economy as good or good, while only 11 percent of Democrats rated it as good or good</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d1d00672e5cfbc938b689011459177\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"719\"></p><p>A $100,000 deposit account can earn $280 in 2020, but it needs $1,236 to pay for negative gains from inflation, $2,046 to eliminate negative gains from education inflation, and $4,904 to eliminate negative gains from health care</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beedd7f7cb4688ee182e03940d83713a\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag\">杰晶维基</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e2f636e805bfca87903ab08fc842298","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s0qXpukohr12_gV2bRFqag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199570467","content_text":"导读：JP Morgan资产管理的Guide to Markets系列报告，是我们必读，并且一定会翻译的文章。在这一份图文并茂的报告中，清楚刻画了全球大类资产和美国股票市场在一个什么样的位置，以及当下市场的主要矛盾。以下是我们对于3季度JP Morgan Guide To Markets的全文翻译，希望给大家带来帮助。\n文章来源 | JPM Guide To The Markets 3Q2020\n2020年第三季度 市场指南\n一、股票市场\n拐点处的S&P 500：S&P 500从2009年3月9日的低点到2020年2月19的高点涨了401%，然后至今(2020年6月30日)跌了8%\n\n2020年6月30日标普500估值为21.72X，过去25年平均估值水平为16.39X\n\nP/E和股票回报率\n\n2020H1标普500指数各个行业收益同比均有所下滑，其中能源市场下滑幅度最大\n\nEPS增长的来源：2020Q1 S&P 500 EPS 年化增速为-48.7%，其中三个贡献因素中利润率年化增长为47.3%，是EPS负增长的主要原因\n\n价值 VS 增长：2020H1价值相对于增长收益率为0.97，价值指数宏有56.1%的个股贝塔大于1\n\n不同风格的收益和估值：就季度来看，小市值高增长的类型收益最好，达到30.6%；按年度来看，大市值高增长的类型表现最好，达到9.8%，中市值高增长次之，为4.2%，其他类型的均为负增长\n\n不同板块的收益和估值：就季度来看，消费行业板块最好，达到32.9%；按年度来看，科技板块表现最好，达到15%，消费板块次之，为7.2%，其他类型的均为负增长\n\n因子表现：2005至2019年间动量因子的收益最好，达到11%，低波动因子次之，为10.2%，小市值因子收益最低，为7.9%，且波动率最大\n\n年化收益以及年内回调\n\n市场波动率\n\n熊市以及随后的牛市的概率\n\n1990年以来的股票市场\n\n二、宏观经济市场\n美国过去经济衰退情况\n\n经济增长以及GDP的构成：2020Q1美国名义GDP中的67.7%是消费，17.9%是政府支出，12.9%是排除房地产外的投资，4.0%是房地产\n\nCOVID-19：美国确诊以及死亡人数\n\n高频经济数据\n\n消费金融：美国消费者资产中27%是房产，21%退休金，负债中66%是房贷\n\n美国经济中的收入不平等\n\n美国经济的长期驱动因素\n\n联邦财政\n\n就业和工资\n\n商业情绪和经济周期\n\n不同教育程度人群的就业和收入\n\n通货膨胀\n\n美元驱动因素\n\n原油市场\n\n联邦政策利率：FOMC 6月纪要显示2020年美国GDP将萎缩6.5%，Q4失业率将达到9.3%，个人消费支出平减指数PCE为0.8%；长期展望美国GDP增速为1.8%，失业率为4.1%，PCEWEI 2.0%\n\n美联储的资产负债表\n\n利率和通货膨胀率\n\n三、固定收益市场动态\n\n收益率曲线\n\n固定收益率及其与股票市场的关系\n\n高收益债券：平均30年高收益债券违约率为3.56%，而截止2020年6月30日的高收益债券违约率为4.85%；\n\n公司债：政府部门的债券是2019第四季度的103.9%，处于历史高位，家庭部门的债券是2019第四季度的75.4%，非金融公司债是2019第四季度的74.9%；Baa投资级公司债券在2020年二季度末占比为48.6%，环比有所下降\n\n负收益债务：截止2020年5月31日，日本政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.35万亿美元，欧洲政府持有的负收益政府债务为5.49万亿美元，全球负收益公司债务为1.27万亿美元\n\n债券市场的流动性：2020年第一季度主要债券承销商债券库存占美国公司债整体的比例为0.3%，环比有所提升\n\n全球货币政策：预测2021年发达国家主要央行债券购买量将继续大幅增加，其中美联储债券购买量仍为最多，较2020年提升明显\n\n全球固定收益市场：截止2019年末，美国债券量为41万亿美元，其他发达国家除美国外债券量为47万亿美元，新兴市场债券量为26万亿美元\n\n固定收益细分市场收益对比：2005-2019年新兴美元债的平均收益率最高，为年化7.3%，但是波动率也最高，为10.6%，高收益债券次之，ABS的收益率最低\n\n全球股票市场：全球市场15年以来美国(以标普500为代表)股票市场平均收益率最高，为9.0%，新兴市场收益率次之，为7.8%\n\n全球股票收益的来源：2005-2019年美国权益市场收益率贡献最大的因素为收益增长，其次为分红，估值倍数贡献最小；新兴市场和欧洲除英国以外的市场中货币为负贡献\n\n货币和国际权益收益：美元走强对国际权益市场回报不利，而美元走弱有利于国际权益市场；2019年对于MSCI全球除美国指数收益来说美元对其影响为负10.8%\n\n拐点处的美国和国际权益市场：2009年至2020年6月30日标普500指数价格收益为401%，随后回调幅度为8%，而ACWI除美国权益市场指数同期收益为143%，随后回调幅度为19%\n\n国际股票收益和估值：2020年全球上市公司收益均有所下滑；估值角度来看目前美国股票市场PE最高，为21.77X\n\n全球经济增长情况：2020年5月服务业PMI指数为35.2，制造业指数为42.4%，均处于荣枯线一下，但是环比都有明显回升；2020年第一季度全球实际GDP增速为-1.7%\n\nCOVID-19：全球确诊病例和死亡人数\n\n全球经济高频活动指数：发达国家从3月低的底部均有所回升，但是认为在0以下；发展中国家中日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯恢复较快\n\n服务业动量：2020年6月主要发达国家服务业PMI指数均有所回升，其中法国达到50.3\n\n全球通货膨胀率：全球主流大部分国家通货膨胀率5月相较于4月均有所下滑\n\n新冠肺炎的财政支持力度：意大利、德国、日本面对新冠肺炎财政支持力度最大，其中意大利财政支出达到GDP的34%\n\n中国经济情况：中国2020年第一季度经济增速为-6.8%，其中投资为-1.5%，消费为-4.4%，净出口为-1.0%；2020年预计财政赤字占GDP达14%\n\n新兴市场：2020年预期新兴市场GDP的经济增速仍为正，但发达国家预计为负，两者之差环比有所提升\n\n对冲基金：预计2020年宏观对冲基金相对于对冲基金研究指数表现将会回落\n\n私募股权市场：整体来看私募股权市场收益率均高于MSCI ACWI全球二级市场股票收益；2019年美国私募股权基金完成募集但还未投出的资金在1.2万亿美元左右\n\n另类投资类别中Alerian MLP ETF年化收益最高为15.2%，而美国10年期国债收益仅为0.7%\n\n全球大宗商品：2020年6月30日金价为1801美元一盎司，与调整通货膨胀率的价格较为一致，趋势上看上升较为明显\n\n全球多种类资产配置组合(25%标普500指数, 10% 罗素2000指数, 15% MSCI EAFE指数, 5% MSCI EME, 25%彭博巴克莱美国综合指数, 5%彭博巴克莱1-3月期限国债指数, 5%彭博巴克莱高收益债券指数, 5%彭博巴克莱商品指数以及5% NAREIT Equity REIT 指数)2019年收益率为19.5%，2005-2019年化收益率为6.6%\n\n基金流入情况：从2007年累计共同基金和ETF有26110亿美元流入债券市场，2020年有所下滑；有14670亿美元流入股票市场，6020亿美元流入其他大类资产\n\n过去20年股票市场年化平均收益为11.3%，债券年化收益率为5.9%，50/50组合收益为8.9%\n\n另类资产类别中过去20年(1999-2019) REITs的年化收益率最高，为11.6%，贵金属金次之，为8.6%\n\n截止第二季度末，有37%的共和党中将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好，只有11%的民主党人将国民经济状况评为优秀或良好\n\n2020年10万美元存款账户能够获得280美元的收益，但是需要1236美元去支付通货膨胀带来的负收益，2046美元去消除教育通胀的负收益，4904美元去消除医疗保障的负收益","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":390036475,"gmtCreate":1605664677797,"gmtModify":1704961602519,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/390036475","repostId":"307752301","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":307752301,"gmtCreate":1605653345396,"gmtModify":1704961537710,"author":{"id":"20727972514030","authorId":"20727972514030","name":"Tony特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f671464b0bc8103579e8d0e2197c48","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"20727972514030","idStr":"20727972514030"},"themes":[],"title":"我怎麼覺得都會漲。。。","htmlText":"11月16～20號美股IPO：都是很有意思的股票。全部6只股票都很有意思。 週三週二都是空白支票，還有一個房地產基金就略過吧。6只股票集中在週四週五上市。 當然，覺得都會漲是一回事，敢不敢買又是另一回事。 我肯定會買 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVI\">$MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.(MRVI)$</a> 順便<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙電商(YSG)$</a> 也打新了 星期四： <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGMS\">$NeoGames S.A.(NGMS)$</a> 給彩票運營商做技術服務以及全方位服務的公司。 說白了就是某人拿到彩票運營執照，然後找這家公司做全權外包直接享受分成即可。對公司而言，只需要找一個有牌照的人剩下的事兒他們就都可以解決了。 所以公司的營收概括起來，就是從交付解決方案，遊戲，合同，聯合運營以及提供的開發服務中獲利。 彩票有什麼可技術運營的呢？美國彩票有很多騷操作，看起來就跟遊戲一樣，但實際上是彩票機制。 這些都是彩票 公司只涉及彩票中的iLottery Instants和DBG（玩法），從某種程度上限制了公司的天花板。在美國彩票是一個受到嚴格監管的行業。雖然在45個州和哥倫比亞特區提供彩票，但目前僅在九個州提供iLottery Instants或DBG。 因爲疫情將玩家轉移到了在線娛樂領域。截至2020年9月30日止九個月的收入爲3,520萬美元，較截至2019年9月30日止九個月的2,410萬美元增加了1,110萬美元或46.0％。 股東： 市值：約4億 收入：截止2020年9月30日9個月","listText":"11月16～20號美股IPO：都是很有意思的股票。全部6只股票都很有意思。 週三週二都是空白支票，還有一個房地產基金就略過吧。6只股票集中在週四週五上市。 當然，覺得都會漲是一回事，敢不敢買又是另一回事。 我肯定會買 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVI\">$MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.(MRVI)$</a> 順便<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙電商(YSG)$</a> 也打新了 星期四： <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGMS\">$NeoGames S.A.(NGMS)$</a> 給彩票運營商做技術服務以及全方位服務的公司。 說白了就是某人拿到彩票運營執照，然後找這家公司做全權外包直接享受分成即可。對公司而言，只需要找一個有牌照的人剩下的事兒他們就都可以解決了。 所以公司的營收概括起來，就是從交付解決方案，遊戲，合同，聯合運營以及提供的開發服務中獲利。 彩票有什麼可技術運營的呢？美國彩票有很多騷操作，看起來就跟遊戲一樣，但實際上是彩票機制。 這些都是彩票 公司只涉及彩票中的iLottery Instants和DBG（玩法），從某種程度上限制了公司的天花板。在美國彩票是一個受到嚴格監管的行業。雖然在45個州和哥倫比亞特區提供彩票，但目前僅在九個州提供iLottery Instants或DBG。 因爲疫情將玩家轉移到了在線娛樂領域。截至2020年9月30日止九個月的收入爲3,520萬美元，較截至2019年9月30日止九個月的2,410萬美元增加了1,110萬美元或46.0％。 股東： 市值：約4億 收入：截止2020年9月30日9個月","text":"11月16～20號美股IPO：都是很有意思的股票。全部6只股票都很有意思。 週三週二都是空白支票，還有一個房地產基金就略過吧。6只股票集中在週四週五上市。 當然，覺得都會漲是一回事，敢不敢買又是另一回事。 我肯定會買 $MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.(MRVI)$ 順便$逸仙電商(YSG)$ 也打新了 星期四： $NeoGames S.A.(NGMS)$ 給彩票運營商做技術服務以及全方位服務的公司。 說白了就是某人拿到彩票運營執照，然後找這家公司做全權外包直接享受分成即可。對公司而言，只需要找一個有牌照的人剩下的事兒他們就都可以解決了。 所以公司的營收概括起來，就是從交付解決方案，遊戲，合同，聯合運營以及提供的開發服務中獲利。 彩票有什麼可技術運營的呢？美國彩票有很多騷操作，看起來就跟遊戲一樣，但實際上是彩票機制。 這些都是彩票 公司只涉及彩票中的iLottery Instants和DBG（玩法），從某種程度上限制了公司的天花板。在美國彩票是一個受到嚴格監管的行業。雖然在45個州和哥倫比亞特區提供彩票，但目前僅在九個州提供iLottery Instants或DBG。 因爲疫情將玩家轉移到了在線娛樂領域。截至2020年9月30日止九個月的收入爲3,520萬美元，較截至2019年9月30日止九個月的2,410萬美元增加了1,110萬美元或46.0％。 股東： 市值：約4億 收入：截止2020年9月30日9個月","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50d6c47a36d3e9d1531976f13c73025","width":"1678","height":"1234"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f20bd9ee3ceb97574ac12073ccd35fd7","width":"2100","height":"268"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb608063b272106266f7a079d6cdca16","width":"1242","height":"702"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/307752301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":15,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":972494950,"gmtCreate":1600310545770,"gmtModify":1705064069063,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/972494950","repostId":"1104455716","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":957079925,"gmtCreate":1593132660067,"gmtModify":1705041253142,"author":{"id":"3551305470267857","authorId":"3551305470267857","name":"Richard凉介","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e92574d3ac8de4c0c288bb704f5ca43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3551305470267857","idStr":"3551305470267857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"，","listText":"，","text":"，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/957079925","repostId":"954540089","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":954540089,"gmtCreate":1592994060735,"gmtModify":1705320410643,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"37002306153600","idStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"【虎友訪談】土澳留學的95後美女暢談如何學投資！","htmlText":" Hello，各位虎友們大家好，歡迎來到虎妞聊天室！ 她是一個95後小美女，雖然流浪在土澳，自由且爛漫，但她並沒有放緩學習的腳步。疫情之下，寬裕的時間讓她開啓了投資之旅，是韭菜還是王者？且看虎妞請到的嘉賓<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/34566861297542\">@Jenny珍妮理財</a> #老虎步行街# T：可以簡單介紹下自己嗎？ 我是一名95後，同齡人現在都自稱老阿姨，但我覺得自己還很年輕！ 目前我是在澳大利亞悉尼讀商務管理，來悉尼兩年多了。 T：好年輕啊！邊讀書邊炒股嗎？怎麼接觸到股市的？ 之前支付寶買一些基金，都是系統推薦的，也沒怎麼關注，買了就放在那裏。 這不yq的原因嘛，學校改成上網課了，有一天逛小紅書刷到有人在分析基金的一些知識，我就慢慢也比較關注了，一開始只是買的基金後來今年四月份纔開的戶，嘗試買一個股票，算是特別偶然的機會吧 T：也算是一枚新股民呀，買的第一個股票是啥？ A股第一支股票是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600511\">$國藥股份(600511)$</a> ，那時候剛出一個消息，說他要研發新冠疫苗嘛，我覺得應該不錯，買進去，當天就漲了幾個點，第二天就漲停了，然後就賣掉了，感覺就是運氣吧！現在這幾天他又在漲停，不過沒去參與。 美股第一隻是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a> ，收益也不錯，在這個上面來來回回做波段掙了75%收益率，經常看評論區，相信很多手握蔚來股票的朋友收益率比我高的都很多都賺了一倍兩倍 。 T：所以說，您看好蔚來的具體原因是？ 我自己的感覺是： 第一，國家發展方向在這裏，新能源車設指標，搞補貼弄優惠，這","listText":" Hello，各位虎友們大家好，歡迎來到虎妞聊天室！ 她是一個95後小美女，雖然流浪在土澳，自由且爛漫，但她並沒有放緩學習的腳步。疫情之下，寬裕的時間讓她開啓了投資之旅，是韭菜還是王者？且看虎妞請到的嘉賓<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/34566861297542\">@Jenny珍妮理財</a> #老虎步行街# T：可以簡單介紹下自己嗎？ 我是一名95後，同齡人現在都自稱老阿姨，但我覺得自己還很年輕！ 目前我是在澳大利亞悉尼讀商務管理，來悉尼兩年多了。 T：好年輕啊！邊讀書邊炒股嗎？怎麼接觸到股市的？ 之前支付寶買一些基金，都是系統推薦的，也沒怎麼關注，買了就放在那裏。 這不yq的原因嘛，學校改成上網課了，有一天逛小紅書刷到有人在分析基金的一些知識，我就慢慢也比較關注了，一開始只是買的基金後來今年四月份纔開的戶，嘗試買一個股票，算是特別偶然的機會吧 T：也算是一枚新股民呀，買的第一個股票是啥？ A股第一支股票是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600511\">$國藥股份(600511)$</a> ，那時候剛出一個消息，說他要研發新冠疫苗嘛，我覺得應該不錯，買進去，當天就漲了幾個點，第二天就漲停了，然後就賣掉了，感覺就是運氣吧！現在這幾天他又在漲停，不過沒去參與。 美股第一隻是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a> ，收益也不錯，在這個上面來來回回做波段掙了75%收益率，經常看評論區，相信很多手握蔚來股票的朋友收益率比我高的都很多都賺了一倍兩倍 。 T：所以說，您看好蔚來的具體原因是？ 我自己的感覺是： 第一，國家發展方向在這裏，新能源車設指標，搞補貼弄優惠，這","text":"Hello，各位虎友們大家好，歡迎來到虎妞聊天室！ 她是一個95後小美女，雖然流浪在土澳，自由且爛漫，但她並沒有放緩學習的腳步。疫情之下，寬裕的時間讓她開啓了投資之旅，是韭菜還是王者？且看虎妞請到的嘉賓@Jenny珍妮理財 #老虎步行街# T：可以簡單介紹下自己嗎？ 我是一名95後，同齡人現在都自稱老阿姨，但我覺得自己還很年輕！ 目前我是在澳大利亞悉尼讀商務管理，來悉尼兩年多了。 T：好年輕啊！邊讀書邊炒股嗎？怎麼接觸到股市的？ 之前支付寶買一些基金，都是系統推薦的，也沒怎麼關注，買了就放在那裏。 這不yq的原因嘛，學校改成上網課了，有一天逛小紅書刷到有人在分析基金的一些知識，我就慢慢也比較關注了，一開始只是買的基金後來今年四月份纔開的戶，嘗試買一個股票，算是特別偶然的機會吧 T：也算是一枚新股民呀，買的第一個股票是啥？ A股第一支股票是$國藥股份(600511)$ ，那時候剛出一個消息，說他要研發新冠疫苗嘛，我覺得應該不錯，買進去，當天就漲了幾個點，第二天就漲停了，然後就賣掉了，感覺就是運氣吧！現在這幾天他又在漲停，不過沒去參與。 美股第一隻是$蔚來(NIO)$ ，收益也不錯，在這個上面來來回回做波段掙了75%收益率，經常看評論區，相信很多手握蔚來股票的朋友收益率比我高的都很多都賺了一倍兩倍 。 T：所以說，您看好蔚來的具體原因是？ 我自己的感覺是： 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