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Kam Bing
Newbie - tiger account for cashflow
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Kam Bing
2022-12-12
$SINGAPORE POST LIMITED(S08.SI)$
Goodshort target
Kam Bing
2022-12-10
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$
26s today?
Kam Bing
2022-12-10
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Here comes the shorting
Kam Bing
2022-12-10
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
MM fishing ? Pushingup price when no good news only to short it later đ
Kam Bing
2022-12-09
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
How is this up for theday with the multiple bad news...
Kam Bing
2022-12-03
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Anyone knows what this yellow line is?
Kam Bing
2022-12-03
Need help - appreciate if anyone can explain what indicator is this yellow line?
Kam Bing
2022-11-27
Nice
CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot
Kam Bing
2022-02-12
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Break 850 today
Kam Bing
2021-03-16
$Canoo Inc.(GOEV)$
Please fly. Higher.
Kam Bing
2021-03-16
$Suncor(SU)$
Bullish long here
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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Pushingup price when no good news only to short it later đ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>MM fishing ? Pushingup price when no good news only to short it later đ","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ MM fishing ? Pushingup price when no good news only to short it later đ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929358686","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929316824,"gmtCreate":1670600054969,"gmtModify":1676538402607,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>How is this up for theday with the multiple bad news... ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>How is this up for theday with the multiple bad news... ","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ How is this up for theday with the multiple bad news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929316824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965764749,"gmtCreate":1670026893981,"gmtModify":1676538290275,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>Anyone knows what this yellow line is?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>Anyone knows what this yellow line is?","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Anyone knows what this yellow line is?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6cc1a351677804c7e703e11ecee47187","width":"746","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965764749","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570622365838239","authorId":"3570622365838239","name":"N30","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33bf6a97d91ccaf61eb8245d0322ab01","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570622365838239","authorIdStr":"3570622365838239"},"content":"VWAP volume weighted avergae price","text":"VWAP volume weighted avergae price","html":"VWAP volume weighted avergae price"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965470253,"gmtCreate":1670017650572,"gmtModify":1676538288062,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need help - appreciate if anyone can explain what indicator is this yellow line?","listText":"Need help - appreciate if anyone can explain what indicator is this yellow line?","text":"Need help - appreciate if anyone can explain what indicator is this yellow line?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b170bbb7f2b1e3cd9687f93765d1d69","width":"750","height":"1287"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965470253","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966239674,"gmtCreate":1669543414299,"gmtModify":1676538206293,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966239674","repostId":"2286418053","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286418053","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669522519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286418053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286418053","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big retailers into the unenviable position of using âpriceâ rather than traffic or volume to drive revenue growth since early 2020, given COVID and the various supply chain issues and distortions caused by COVID that have wreaked havoc on the business.</p><p>The WSJ article was eerily reminiscent of Joe Noceraâs article in the New York Times in the early 1990s, where Nocera noted that the one reason inflation likely remained contained in the early 1990s was due to Walmart and its emphasis on âevery day low priceâ or EDLP, not in the literal sense, but from the perspective that the average American probably doesnât realize the impact Walmart, Amazon, now Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), have on retail pricing today, given their size.</p><p>Walmart recently had a good earnings report for its fiscal 3rd quarter ended October â22, where revenue grew 8.75%, operating income grew 4% and EPS grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.</p><p>If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from âretail constipationâ as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.</p><p>However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e625a90dff771b0d7e944e64afea8474\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"21\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then â perhaps â a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.</p><p>And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although itâs still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.</p><p>Whatâs important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric â particularly for a retailer â can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.</p><p>Walmartâs typical âinventory turnoverâ is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but itâs now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.</p><p><i><b>Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332f3e192c3b45a529272f50930f72af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"50\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at âaverage ticket vs. trafficâ: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.</p><p>My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that âaverage ticketâ over time. Itâs a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 â23 (ends Jan â23) âgiven persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumablesâ, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.</p><p><i><b>Amazon: </b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4ee98477a97035578994e17e74c01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"21\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but itâs not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazonâs total revenue as of 9/30/22. Itâs unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact âinventoryâ which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.</p><p>Whatâs clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (Thatâs an assumption on my part.)</p><p>The point being that the last quarter where Amazonâs revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June â21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.</p><p>Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.</p><p>Still as Amazonâs ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.</p><p><i><b>Costco:</b></i></p><p>TTM revenue for Costco as of the August â22 quarter, was $226 bl.</p><p>Costco never suffered the âtrafficâ decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ef085cd44ff2d772e22c28d7df85f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"26\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and âinventoryâ is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.</p><p>COST is probably better compared to Samâs Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Samâs Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.</p><p>In Costcoâs 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, âFoods & Sundriesâ and âFresh Foodsâ are roughly 50% of COSTâs total revenue.</p><p>(Iâm guessing â and please note that â COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or âfresh foodsâ segment. COSTâs Q shows that âfresh foodsâ is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.</p><p>(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November â22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)</p><p><i><b>Home Depot:</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e116c38f010b75a0518c13078f757d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"20\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although itâs not considered a âgeneral merchandise retailerâ, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housingâs importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8a09a9efc6fb5ade6a35e65306d4e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"25\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on âticketâ vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.</p><p>What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at âcash flow vs. net incomeâ you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4313b9b9553313538aa9b1f4f5ca4b8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This table compares Home Depotâs cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.</p><p>Is this a reason to sell Home Depotâs stock â probably not â but it speaks to how the quality of a companyâs earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.</p><p><i><b>Summary/conclusion:</b></i> The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the âtrailing-twelve-monthâ (TTM) revenue metric.</p><p>Walmart is Americaâs largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.</p><p>Hereâs how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:</p><ul><li>Walmart: $600 billion</li><li>Amazon: $502 billion</li><li>Costco: $227 billion</li><li>Home Depot: $157 billion</li><li>Total: $1,486 trillion</li></ul><p>The Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmartâs and Amazonâs importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmartâs treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always âfair and balancedâ (and Iâm not speaking of Faberâs special, which I thought was balanced).</p><p>But itâs at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasnât included in the above analysis.)</p><p>In Michael Porterâs legendary âCompetitive Strategyâ book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is âpower over suppliersâ, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.</p><p>Looking at Walmartâs âaverageâ revenue growth since the mid â90s hereâs what I found:</p><ul><li>â20 to â22: averaged 3% revenue growth</li><li>â10 to â19: averaged 2% revenue growth</li><li>â00 to â09: averaged 11% revenue growth</li><li>â96 to â99: averaged 14% revenue growth</li></ul><p>What happened to Walmartâs revenue growth, if the same âcompareâ were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.</p><p>Walmartâs enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue â which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report â is grocery, the holy grail of retail since itâs low cost and it drives foot traffic.</p><p>Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmartâs last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmartâs total revenue. (That was a surprise.)</p><p>When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the âphysical storeâ aspect of Amazonâs revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still âgroceryâ that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmartâs dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.</p><p>Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more âanalytical flavorâ in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.</p><p>Typically and historically per whatâs been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmartâs case especially food inflation.</p><p>Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. Hopefully, readers found the content interesting.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:15 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"äșé©Źé","WMT":"æČć°ç","COST":"ć„œćžć€","HD":"柶ćŸćź"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286418053","content_text":"The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big retailers into the unenviable position of using âpriceâ rather than traffic or volume to drive revenue growth since early 2020, given COVID and the various supply chain issues and distortions caused by COVID that have wreaked havoc on the business.The WSJ article was eerily reminiscent of Joe Noceraâs article in the New York Times in the early 1990s, where Nocera noted that the one reason inflation likely remained contained in the early 1990s was due to Walmart and its emphasis on âevery day low priceâ or EDLP, not in the literal sense, but from the perspective that the average American probably doesnât realize the impact Walmart, Amazon, now Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), have on retail pricing today, given their size.Walmart recently had a good earnings report for its fiscal 3rd quarter ended October â22, where revenue grew 8.75%, operating income grew 4% and EPS grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from âretail constipationâ as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then â perhaps â a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although itâs still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.Whatâs important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric â particularly for a retailer â can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.Walmartâs typical âinventory turnoverâ is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but itâs now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at âaverage ticket vs. trafficâ: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that âaverage ticketâ over time. Itâs a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 â23 (ends Jan â23) âgiven persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumablesâ, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.Amazon: This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but itâs not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazonâs total revenue as of 9/30/22. Itâs unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact âinventoryâ which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.Whatâs clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (Thatâs an assumption on my part.)The point being that the last quarter where Amazonâs revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June â21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.Still as Amazonâs ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.Costco:TTM revenue for Costco as of the August â22 quarter, was $226 bl.Costco never suffered the âtrafficâ decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and âinventoryâ is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.COST is probably better compared to Samâs Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Samâs Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.In Costcoâs 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, âFoods & Sundriesâ and âFresh Foodsâ are roughly 50% of COSTâs total revenue.(Iâm guessing â and please note that â COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or âfresh foodsâ segment. COSTâs Q shows that âfresh foodsâ is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November â22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)Home Depot:Although itâs not considered a âgeneral merchandise retailerâ, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housingâs importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on âticketâ vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at âcash flow vs. net incomeâ you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.This table compares Home Depotâs cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.Is this a reason to sell Home Depotâs stock â probably not â but it speaks to how the quality of a companyâs earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.Summary/conclusion: The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the âtrailing-twelve-monthâ (TTM) revenue metric.Walmart is Americaâs largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.Hereâs how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:Walmart: $600 billionAmazon: $502 billionCostco: $227 billionHome Depot: $157 billionTotal: $1,486 trillionThe Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmartâs and Amazonâs importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmartâs treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always âfair and balancedâ (and Iâm not speaking of Faberâs special, which I thought was balanced).But itâs at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasnât included in the above analysis.)In Michael Porterâs legendary âCompetitive Strategyâ book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is âpower over suppliersâ, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.Looking at Walmartâs âaverageâ revenue growth since the mid â90s hereâs what I found:â20 to â22: averaged 3% revenue growthâ10 to â19: averaged 2% revenue growthâ00 to â09: averaged 11% revenue growthâ96 to â99: averaged 14% revenue growthWhat happened to Walmartâs revenue growth, if the same âcompareâ were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.Walmartâs enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue â which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report â is grocery, the holy grail of retail since itâs low cost and it drives foot traffic.Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmartâs last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmartâs total revenue. (That was a surprise.)When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the âphysical storeâ aspect of Amazonâs revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still âgroceryâ that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmartâs dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more âanalytical flavorâ in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.Typically and historically per whatâs been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmartâs case especially food inflation.Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. Hopefully, readers found the content interesting.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092639513,"gmtCreate":1644609591900,"gmtModify":1676533945549,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Break 850 today","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Break 850 today","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Break 850 today","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092639513","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325631210,"gmtCreate":1615892653230,"gmtModify":1704788031918,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOEV\">$Canoo Inc.(GOEV)$</a>Please fly. Higher.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOEV\">$Canoo Inc.(GOEV)$</a>Please fly. Higher.","text":"$Canoo Inc.(GOEV)$Please fly. Higher.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d589ba0af4576a0d3e135adcb3fcaf37","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325631210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325633560,"gmtCreate":1615892610550,"gmtModify":1704788030625,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SU\">$Suncor(SU)$</a>Bullish long here","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SU\">$Suncor(SU)$</a>Bullish long here","text":"$Suncor(SU)$Bullish long here","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a31d6dcdd264f9039101cb3bdc8f406","width":"750","height":"1224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325633560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9092639513,"gmtCreate":1644609591900,"gmtModify":1676533945549,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Break 850 today","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Break 850 today","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Break 850 today","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092639513","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929316824,"gmtCreate":1670600054969,"gmtModify":1676538402607,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>How is this up for theday with the multiple bad news... ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>How is this up for theday with the multiple bad news... ","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ How is this up for theday with the multiple bad news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929316824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966239674,"gmtCreate":1669543414299,"gmtModify":1676538206293,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966239674","repostId":"2286418053","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286418053","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669522519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286418053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286418053","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big retailers into the unenviable position of using âpriceâ rather than traffic or volume to drive revenue growth since early 2020, given COVID and the various supply chain issues and distortions caused by COVID that have wreaked havoc on the business.</p><p>The WSJ article was eerily reminiscent of Joe Noceraâs article in the New York Times in the early 1990s, where Nocera noted that the one reason inflation likely remained contained in the early 1990s was due to Walmart and its emphasis on âevery day low priceâ or EDLP, not in the literal sense, but from the perspective that the average American probably doesnât realize the impact Walmart, Amazon, now Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), have on retail pricing today, given their size.</p><p>Walmart recently had a good earnings report for its fiscal 3rd quarter ended October â22, where revenue grew 8.75%, operating income grew 4% and EPS grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.</p><p>If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from âretail constipationâ as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.</p><p>However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e625a90dff771b0d7e944e64afea8474\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"21\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then â perhaps â a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.</p><p>And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although itâs still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.</p><p>Whatâs important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric â particularly for a retailer â can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.</p><p>Walmartâs typical âinventory turnoverâ is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but itâs now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.</p><p><i><b>Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332f3e192c3b45a529272f50930f72af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"50\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at âaverage ticket vs. trafficâ: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.</p><p>My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that âaverage ticketâ over time. Itâs a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 â23 (ends Jan â23) âgiven persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumablesâ, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.</p><p><i><b>Amazon: </b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4ee98477a97035578994e17e74c01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"21\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but itâs not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazonâs total revenue as of 9/30/22. Itâs unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact âinventoryâ which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.</p><p>Whatâs clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (Thatâs an assumption on my part.)</p><p>The point being that the last quarter where Amazonâs revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June â21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.</p><p>Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.</p><p>Still as Amazonâs ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.</p><p><i><b>Costco:</b></i></p><p>TTM revenue for Costco as of the August â22 quarter, was $226 bl.</p><p>Costco never suffered the âtrafficâ decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ef085cd44ff2d772e22c28d7df85f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"26\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and âinventoryâ is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.</p><p>COST is probably better compared to Samâs Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Samâs Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.</p><p>In Costcoâs 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, âFoods & Sundriesâ and âFresh Foodsâ are roughly 50% of COSTâs total revenue.</p><p>(Iâm guessing â and please note that â COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or âfresh foodsâ segment. COSTâs Q shows that âfresh foodsâ is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.</p><p>(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November â22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)</p><p><i><b>Home Depot:</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e116c38f010b75a0518c13078f757d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"20\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although itâs not considered a âgeneral merchandise retailerâ, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housingâs importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8a09a9efc6fb5ade6a35e65306d4e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"25\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on âticketâ vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.</p><p>What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at âcash flow vs. net incomeâ you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4313b9b9553313538aa9b1f4f5ca4b8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This table compares Home Depotâs cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.</p><p>Is this a reason to sell Home Depotâs stock â probably not â but it speaks to how the quality of a companyâs earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.</p><p><i><b>Summary/conclusion:</b></i> The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the âtrailing-twelve-monthâ (TTM) revenue metric.</p><p>Walmart is Americaâs largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.</p><p>Hereâs how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:</p><ul><li>Walmart: $600 billion</li><li>Amazon: $502 billion</li><li>Costco: $227 billion</li><li>Home Depot: $157 billion</li><li>Total: $1,486 trillion</li></ul><p>The Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmartâs and Amazonâs importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmartâs treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always âfair and balancedâ (and Iâm not speaking of Faberâs special, which I thought was balanced).</p><p>But itâs at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasnât included in the above analysis.)</p><p>In Michael Porterâs legendary âCompetitive Strategyâ book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is âpower over suppliersâ, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.</p><p>Looking at Walmartâs âaverageâ revenue growth since the mid â90s hereâs what I found:</p><ul><li>â20 to â22: averaged 3% revenue growth</li><li>â10 to â19: averaged 2% revenue growth</li><li>â00 to â09: averaged 11% revenue growth</li><li>â96 to â99: averaged 14% revenue growth</li></ul><p>What happened to Walmartâs revenue growth, if the same âcompareâ were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.</p><p>Walmartâs enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue â which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report â is grocery, the holy grail of retail since itâs low cost and it drives foot traffic.</p><p>Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmartâs last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmartâs total revenue. (That was a surprise.)</p><p>When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the âphysical storeâ aspect of Amazonâs revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still âgroceryâ that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmartâs dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.</p><p>Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more âanalytical flavorâ in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.</p><p>Typically and historically per whatâs been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmartâs case especially food inflation.</p><p>Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. Hopefully, readers found the content interesting.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Inflation Will Come Down: A Look At Walmart, Amazon, Costco And Home Depot\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:15 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"äșé©Źé","WMT":"æČć°ç","COST":"ć„œćžć€","HD":"柶ćŸćź"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560535-cpi-inflation-will-come-down-a-look-at-walmart-amazon-costco-and-home-depot","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286418053","content_text":"The Wall Street Journal wrote an article in the last 10 days or so noting that both Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) will begin pushing back on their suppliers' price hikes, which has forced the big retailers into the unenviable position of using âpriceâ rather than traffic or volume to drive revenue growth since early 2020, given COVID and the various supply chain issues and distortions caused by COVID that have wreaked havoc on the business.The WSJ article was eerily reminiscent of Joe Noceraâs article in the New York Times in the early 1990s, where Nocera noted that the one reason inflation likely remained contained in the early 1990s was due to Walmart and its emphasis on âevery day low priceâ or EDLP, not in the literal sense, but from the perspective that the average American probably doesnât realize the impact Walmart, Amazon, now Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), have on retail pricing today, given their size.Walmart recently had a good earnings report for its fiscal 3rd quarter ended October â22, where revenue grew 8.75%, operating income grew 4% and EPS grew 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). This blog previewed the earnings report on Seeking Alpha here.If readers quickly peruse the earnings preview, it was noted that Walmart was suffering from âretail constipationâ as inventory growth had far exceeded sales growth and for a company that runs like a Swiss watch, this was a rare occurrence indeed.However, as the following spreadsheet shows, Walmart has vastly improved its revenue growth vs. inventory growth, although it's still not yet in line with historical standards:Readers need to click on the above spreadsheet to see the relationship between revenue and inventory growth YoY and note how during COVID in 2020, inventory fell sharply and then â perhaps â a much stronger reopening was expected, which drove an inventory build.And now in the late stages of 2022, particularly the last quarter, Walmart is finally getting the relationship back to normal, although itâs still not quite there yet, since ideally, revenue growth should exceed inventory growth YoY, for at least 3 of the 4 quarters every year.Whatâs important for readers to understand is that this relationship impacts working capital and thus cash flow from operations, so just this one metric â particularly for a retailer â can have a dramatic influence on profitability and cash flow.Walmartâs typical âinventory turnoverâ is usually between 2.0x and 2.5x looking back to 2018, but itâs now at under 2.0x, with the last 3 quarters coming in around 1.8x as the retail giant tries to push the inventory bowling ball through the snake.Average ticket vs. traffic at Walmart:If you ever want some insight into a retail business look at âaverage ticket vs. trafficâ: Walmart being the giant that it is, look how the two are used in tandem, both through the pandemic and then after it.My guess is Walmart will do everything it can to reduce that âaverage ticketâ over time. Itâs a struggle now since the conference call notes said that Walmart is guiding to a consumer that might might slow spending in Q4 â23 (ends Jan â23) âgiven persistent inflationary pressure in food and consumablesâ, however that is probably a conservative guide for the giant retailer given its history.Amazon: This table shows the identical measurement that Walmart contains but itâs not apples-to-apples since Amazon Web Services, Subscriptions and Advertising revenue segments are now 31% of Amazonâs total revenue as of 9/30/22. Itâs unknown to me how subscriptions and advertising impact âinventoryâ which would distort the inventory numbers so to speak.Whatâs clear is that Amazon is still 69% online, physical stores and 3rd party resellers, and you would think that the advantage to the 3rd party re-sellers for Amazon is that it would allow Amazon to not have to use their balance sheet to stock inventory. (Thatâs an assumption on my part.)The point being that the last quarter where Amazonâs revenue growth exceeded inventory growth was the June â21 quarter right around the time the stock peaked at $188 per share.Coincidence or Correlation? You tell me what you think.Still as Amazonâs ecommerce division rights itself after expanding too rapidly, revenue consisting of 69-70% of $502 billion in total revenue, there should be ample opportunity to obtain supplier concessions in the Amazon marketplace.Costco:TTM revenue for Costco as of the August â22 quarter, was $226 bl.Costco never suffered the âtrafficâ decline that Walmart and Home Depot have incurred, thus their quarterly comps, which averaged roughly 5-6% in calendar 2019, have averaged 13% since calendar 2020 or the earliest days since the pandemic began.The problem with including Costco in an analysis with Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot, is that COST is a warehouse club and âinventoryâ is different than the typical retailer: my understanding is that inventory is taken in as a consignment rather than owned directly.COST is probably better compared to Samâs Club directly than Walmart itself, (with Samâs Club being a division of Walmart) but with $226 billion in TTM sales, I thought it was worth a look from a market power perspective.In Costcoâs 10-Q, the various product lines are broken out and the revenue detailed and for COST, âFoods & Sundriesâ and âFresh Foodsâ are roughly 50% of COSTâs total revenue.(Iâm guessing â and please note that â COST is probably considerably smaller than Walmart's pure grocery or âfresh foodsâ segment. COSTâs Q shows that âfresh foodsâ is just 13% of total revenue as of the last quarter.(Note too that the next COST earnings report is December 8th and thus readers will get another look at food and grocery inflation as of November â22 quarter-end, before the next CPI report.)Home Depot:Although itâs not considered a âgeneral merchandise retailerâ, Home Depot was thrown into the mix given its annual revenue growth and housingâs importance to the CPI, i.e. owners' equivalent rent, and such are a 30% weight in the CPI basket.This above spreadsheet shows that Home Depot like Walmart is relying on âticketâ vs. traffic to make it through both the post-Covid supply chain issues and the housing slowdown.What I worry about regarding Home Depot is that if you look at âcash flow vs. net incomeâ you could make a case for the Home Depot business model being under some stress.This table compares Home Depotâs cash flow and free cash flow vs. net income and readers can see that as far back as 2017, the relationship looked normal but with the recent slowdown in housing, there is no question Home Depot is feeling the pressure, although part of it could be supply chain issues as well.Is this a reason to sell Home Depotâs stock â probably not â but it speaks to how the quality of a companyâs earnings are impacted when the model is placed under stress.Summary/conclusion: The total dollar value of US GDP at the end of 2021 was $23 trillion, and the four companies listed above represent about $1.5 trillion, or about 6.5% of that $23 trillion as of the latest quarter, using the âtrailing-twelve-monthâ (TTM) revenue metric.Walmart is Americaâs largest private sector employer employing 2.2 to 2.3 million, while Amazon is still a ways away from overtaking Walmart in that metric, but now employs 1.5 million Americans as of 9/30/22, up from 1.1 million as of September 2020.Hereâs how the trailing twelve-month revenue falls out by company as of the latest quarter reported:Walmart: $600 billionAmazon: $502 billionCostco: $227 billionHome Depot: $157 billionTotal: $1,486 trillionThe Wall Street Journal article made the point about Walmartâs and Amazonâs importance to consumer inflation, although many including David Faber of CNBC have done media specials on Walmartâs treatment of suppliers, etc. some of which are not always âfair and balancedâ (and Iâm not speaking of Faberâs special, which I thought was balanced).But itâs at times like this that you can appreciate that as supply disruptions and the pandemic influences fade, Walmart has the ability to squeeze consumer inflation out of the pipeline. (Having never modeled Target, it wasnât included in the above analysis.)In Michael Porterâs legendary âCompetitive Strategyâ book, one of the competitive tenets in industry sparring matches is âpower over suppliersâ, thus Walmart could be said to have two of the basic principles, i.e. low-cost leader and power over suppliers, although Amazon has unquestionably closed the gap on Walmart and has become a formidable competitor since early this century.Looking at Walmartâs âaverageâ revenue growth since the mid â90s hereâs what I found:â20 to â22: averaged 3% revenue growthâ10 to â19: averaged 2% revenue growthâ00 to â09: averaged 11% revenue growthâ96 to â99: averaged 14% revenue growthWhat happened to Walmartâs revenue growth, if the same âcompareâ were run for Amazon, Amazon (and probably Costco too) would likely be the mirror image of these bullet points, which is probably a surprise to no one.Walmartâs enormous competitive advantage today is that at least half their revenue â which was $600 billion TTM as of the last earnings report â is grocery, the holy grail of retail since itâs low cost and it drives foot traffic.Walmart has to be the largest grocer in the world, or at the very least America, although I heard one CNBC guest around Walmartâs last earnings report say that he thought grocery was now 70% of Walmartâs total revenue. (That was a surprise.)When Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO, he said he was going to take on the âphysical storeâ aspect of Amazonâs revenue base, which is the Whole Foods acquisition, thus while the big opportunity for Amazon is still âgroceryâ that has to be a very long uphill battle for the ecommerce giant given Walmartâs dominance. Not being a sell-side analyst it would seem that Costco and Kroger (KR) represent larger competitive threats to Walmart today than Amazon.Agreeing in principle with the Wall Street Journal article, I hope this article provided a little more âanalytical flavorâ in terms of the numbers (and this article was probably too technical for easy reading), since these 4 retailers represent 6.5% of what was 2021 total GDP of $23 trillion.Typically and historically per whatâs been read, once inflation starts to roll over, it tends to continue to fall, so as Walmart and Amazon work through their bloated inventory and supply chain issues, expect more pressure on inflation, and in Walmartâs case especially food inflation.Take everything you read here as one opinion, and with a substantial grain of salt. Hopefully, readers found the content interesting.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965764749,"gmtCreate":1670026893981,"gmtModify":1676538290275,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>Anyone knows what this yellow line is?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>Anyone knows what this yellow line is?","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Anyone knows what this yellow line is?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6cc1a351677804c7e703e11ecee47187","width":"746","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965764749","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570622365838239","authorId":"3570622365838239","name":"N30","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33bf6a97d91ccaf61eb8245d0322ab01","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570622365838239","authorIdStr":"3570622365838239"},"content":"VWAP volume weighted avergae price","text":"VWAP volume weighted avergae price","html":"VWAP volume weighted avergae price"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325631210,"gmtCreate":1615892653230,"gmtModify":1704788031918,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOEV\">$Canoo Inc.(GOEV)$</a>Please fly. Higher.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOEV\">$Canoo Inc.(GOEV)$</a>Please fly. Higher.","text":"$Canoo Inc.(GOEV)$Please fly. Higher.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d589ba0af4576a0d3e135adcb3fcaf37","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325631210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923123706,"gmtCreate":1670811601206,"gmtModify":1676538438140,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S08.SI\">$SINGAPORE POST LIMITED(S08.SI)$ </a>Goodshort target","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S08.SI\">$SINGAPORE POST LIMITED(S08.SI)$ </a>Goodshort target","text":"$SINGAPORE POST LIMITED(S08.SI)$ Goodshort target","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923123706","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929374870,"gmtCreate":1670610357690,"gmtModify":1676538404772,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ </a>26s today?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ </a>26s today?","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 26s today?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929374870","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929378768,"gmtCreate":1670609189755,"gmtModify":1676538404671,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>Here comes the shorting","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>Here comes the shorting","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Here comes the shorting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929378768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929358686,"gmtCreate":1670604114646,"gmtModify":1676538403939,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>MM fishing ? Pushingup price when no good news only to short it later đ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>MM fishing ? Pushingup price when no good news only to short it later đ","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ MM fishing ? Pushingup price when no good news only to short it later đ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929358686","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965470253,"gmtCreate":1670017650572,"gmtModify":1676538288062,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need help - appreciate if anyone can explain what indicator is this yellow line?","listText":"Need help - appreciate if anyone can explain what indicator is this yellow line?","text":"Need help - appreciate if anyone can explain what indicator is this yellow line?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b170bbb7f2b1e3cd9687f93765d1d69","width":"750","height":"1287"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965470253","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325633560,"gmtCreate":1615892610550,"gmtModify":1704788030625,"author":{"id":"3554913836841809","authorId":"3554913836841809","name":"Kam Bing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/05f569d28ff2ef662887da637c5fe1cd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554913836841809","authorIdStr":"3554913836841809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SU\">$Suncor(SU)$</a>Bullish long here","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SU\">$Suncor(SU)$</a>Bullish long here","text":"$Suncor(SU)$Bullish long here","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a31d6dcdd264f9039101cb3bdc8f406","width":"750","height":"1224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325633560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}