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05-04
$Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$
Khek
2021-05-28
Good
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Khek
2021-05-21
Make sense
Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright
Khek
2021-05-21
Good stock to monitor
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The stock, which has become a poster child for retail traders using <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> and Reddit to squeeze short-sellers, soared 36% Thursday to the highest level since May 2017.</p>\n<p>Retail investors have cheered gains in the cinema chain while hashtags like #AMCSTRONG, #AMC500k, and #OccupyWallstreetAMC trended on Twitter. The stock has consistently been the most referenced asset on the social trading platforms like StockTwits lately. Thursday’s rally cost shorts another $634 million, according to S3 Partners, bringing losses to just below $2 billion for the year.</p>\n<p>While some shorts have been covering their positions, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3’s managing director of predictive analytics, he believes the pain could get even worse for skeptics. The company, along with retail investor favorite GameStop Corp., ranks high on S3 Partners’ “Squeeze Score metric” with each scoring a 10 out of 10.</p>\n<p>“This signifies that both stocks have a high potential for a short squeeze, dependent on their upcoming stock price moves,” Dusaniwsky said by email. Roughly 20% of shares available for trading for both companies are currently sold short, S3 Partners data show.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f69d1a3831084faa4e73f62a42de7a1\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC’s Four-Day Surge Slaps Short Sellers With $1.3 Billion Loss</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC’s Four-Day Surge Slaps Short Sellers With $1.3 Billion Loss\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 08:03 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-four-day-surge-slaps-220306577.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- The relentless four-day winning streak in AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is drawing even more blood from short sellers.\nThe movie theater’s 120% surge so far this week has dealt ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-four-day-surge-slaps-220306577.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f90dca33406ede19ab50c0c5cc57e37","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-four-day-surge-slaps-220306577.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2138171111","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The relentless four-day winning streak in AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is drawing even more blood from short sellers.\nThe movie theater’s 120% surge so far this week has dealt investors betting against it roughly $1.3 billion in losses, according to financial analytics firm S3 Partners. The stock, which has become a poster child for retail traders using Twitter and Reddit to squeeze short-sellers, soared 36% Thursday to the highest level since May 2017.\nRetail investors have cheered gains in the cinema chain while hashtags like #AMCSTRONG, #AMC500k, and #OccupyWallstreetAMC trended on Twitter. The stock has consistently been the most referenced asset on the social trading platforms like StockTwits lately. Thursday’s rally cost shorts another $634 million, according to S3 Partners, bringing losses to just below $2 billion for the year.\nWhile some shorts have been covering their positions, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3’s managing director of predictive analytics, he believes the pain could get even worse for skeptics. The company, along with retail investor favorite GameStop Corp., ranks high on S3 Partners’ “Squeeze Score metric” with each scoring a 10 out of 10.\n“This signifies that both stocks have a high potential for a short squeeze, dependent on their upcoming stock price moves,” Dusaniwsky said by email. Roughly 20% of shares available for trading for both companies are currently sold short, S3 Partners data show.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139012029,"gmtCreate":1621573528461,"gmtModify":1704359913893,"author":{"id":"3554973110224284","authorId":"3554973110224284","name":"Khek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5d8a205ac48a55d17ec603ca6a0ee3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554973110224284","idStr":"3554973110224284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stock to monitor","listText":"Good stock to monitor","text":"Good stock to monitor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139012029","repostId":"2137971997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137971997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621559408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137971997?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This stock is reaping the benefits of the new ‘green’ cryptocurrency chia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137971997","media":"Fortune","summary":"It's not only crypto enthusiasts that are taking note of the new \"eco-friendly\" cryptocurrency chia.","content":"<p>It's not only crypto enthusiasts that are taking note of the new \"eco-friendly\" cryptocurrency chia.</p><p>Hard-disk drive makers like [hotlink]Western Digital[/hotlink] have seen growing demand for their hard drives and disks<b> </b>ever since chia—which uses spare storage space on hard drives to verify blockchain transactions instead of using the energy-intensive \"proof of work\" model employed by the likes of Bitcoin—launched in the crypto world. The coin, which started trading in early May, was created in 2017 by BitTorrent founder Bram Cohen on the Chia Network, and claims to be a 'green' alternative to Bitcoin.</p><p>Even before the coin began trading, there were reports of hard drive shortages in areas like Southeast Asia as miners prepared for chia's launch.</p><p>\"In recent weeks the demand and pricing for high capacity [hard disk drives, or HDDs] has seen a material step higher ... and enterprise [solid state drive, or SSD] prices have also moved higher,\" analysts at [hotlink]Bank of America[/hotlink] wrote in a Thursday report. The \"primary upside driver\" for that rising demand, according to BofA: chia.</p><p>These forces have all boosted the stock of Western Digital, a dominant seller of HDDs, as shares are up over 8% over the past couple weeks after seeing a big rally earlier this week. Wedbush analyst Matthew Bryson tells <i>Fortune</i>, \"I certainly think that chia is a primary contributor to what's going on with ...Western Digital, particularly in the sense that the incremental demand on the hard drive side has created a shortfall in availability of high capacity drives.\"</p><p>Indeed, the Chia Network is using up more and more storage in recent weeks—presently, over 8 exabytes, an over 2,000% increase from April (see BofA's chart below). Analysts like Bryson are going to be watching \"what happens with exabyte growth, which kind of tells you what demand has looked like. Right now it's been constantly increasing,\" he notes. Prices for some of Western Digital's products, meanwhile, have also been rising at a rapid clip within the past month, per BofA.</p><p><img src=\"https://s1.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/FaJJxU80McWaoESy6wRSzw--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/fortune_175/40f9c880bd8f8a440c5722074a5d71c1\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The firm's analysts note that \"the rise in popularity of Chia would increase the price of both HDD and SSD, since HDD is primarily used to store the plots, while SSD is used for plotting due to higher capacity and performance to handle large amount of data,\" they wrote. The plots and plotting refer to chia's \"proof of space and time\" model, which involves \"farmers\" (instead of \"miners\") seeding and plotting hard drives as part of its process of unlocking coins.</p><p>The big question, of course, is how long the chia tailwind might last. The BofA analysts note that the \"sustainability of this trajectory of Chia's popularity remains unclear\" for the long term, but argue \"we see [Western Digital] benefiting from the increased demand.\" That's why the bank is upping its price target for the stock from $80 per share to $90 per share (some 26% upside from its Wednesday close price).</p><p>Others like Wedbush's Bryson view the company's NAND business (think flash memory) as what \"really drives their model\"; Bryson doesn't think that chia will be \"transformational\" for the space long term. But he believes \"from a near term perspective, because you have these constraints around production, that chia, plus strong demand in other areas, … [is] enough to keep a tight supply chain over the next couple quarters,\" he says.</p><p>Still, some critics are already fretting that the growing amount of hardware used to farm more chia could eventually erode how \"green\" it actually is, as more equipment would mean more energy consumption. \"I do worry that when they do grow, this proof of space and time has kind of the same methodology [as] proof of work, like Bitcoin, and their model is: you ultimately have to buy more equipment to get paid,\" John Wu, president of Ava Labs, which has its own blockchain platform, recently told <i>Fortune</i>.</p><p>But for now, the rising demand and prices for such equipment should likely be a boon for the likes of Western Digital.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This stock is reaping the benefits of the new ‘green’ cryptocurrency chia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis stock is reaping the benefits of the new ‘green’ cryptocurrency chia\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 09:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-reaping-benefits-green-cryptocurrency-213508306.html><strong>Fortune</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's not only crypto enthusiasts that are taking note of the new \"eco-friendly\" cryptocurrency chia.Hard-disk drive makers like [hotlink]Western Digital[/hotlink] have seen growing demand for their ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-reaping-benefits-green-cryptocurrency-213508306.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WDC":"西部数据"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-reaping-benefits-green-cryptocurrency-213508306.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2137971997","content_text":"It's not only crypto enthusiasts that are taking note of the new \"eco-friendly\" cryptocurrency chia.Hard-disk drive makers like [hotlink]Western Digital[/hotlink] have seen growing demand for their hard drives and disks ever since chia—which uses spare storage space on hard drives to verify blockchain transactions instead of using the energy-intensive \"proof of work\" model employed by the likes of Bitcoin—launched in the crypto world. The coin, which started trading in early May, was created in 2017 by BitTorrent founder Bram Cohen on the Chia Network, and claims to be a 'green' alternative to Bitcoin.Even before the coin began trading, there were reports of hard drive shortages in areas like Southeast Asia as miners prepared for chia's launch.\"In recent weeks the demand and pricing for high capacity [hard disk drives, or HDDs] has seen a material step higher ... and enterprise [solid state drive, or SSD] prices have also moved higher,\" analysts at [hotlink]Bank of America[/hotlink] wrote in a Thursday report. The \"primary upside driver\" for that rising demand, according to BofA: chia.These forces have all boosted the stock of Western Digital, a dominant seller of HDDs, as shares are up over 8% over the past couple weeks after seeing a big rally earlier this week. Wedbush analyst Matthew Bryson tells Fortune, \"I certainly think that chia is a primary contributor to what's going on with ...Western Digital, particularly in the sense that the incremental demand on the hard drive side has created a shortfall in availability of high capacity drives.\"Indeed, the Chia Network is using up more and more storage in recent weeks—presently, over 8 exabytes, an over 2,000% increase from April (see BofA's chart below). Analysts like Bryson are going to be watching \"what happens with exabyte growth, which kind of tells you what demand has looked like. Right now it's been constantly increasing,\" he notes. Prices for some of Western Digital's products, meanwhile, have also been rising at a rapid clip within the past month, per BofA.The firm's analysts note that \"the rise in popularity of Chia would increase the price of both HDD and SSD, since HDD is primarily used to store the plots, while SSD is used for plotting due to higher capacity and performance to handle large amount of data,\" they wrote. The plots and plotting refer to chia's \"proof of space and time\" model, which involves \"farmers\" (instead of \"miners\") seeding and plotting hard drives as part of its process of unlocking coins.The big question, of course, is how long the chia tailwind might last. The BofA analysts note that the \"sustainability of this trajectory of Chia's popularity remains unclear\" for the long term, but argue \"we see [Western Digital] benefiting from the increased demand.\" That's why the bank is upping its price target for the stock from $80 per share to $90 per share (some 26% upside from its Wednesday close price).Others like Wedbush's Bryson view the company's NAND business (think flash memory) as what \"really drives their model\"; Bryson doesn't think that chia will be \"transformational\" for the space long term. But he believes \"from a near term perspective, because you have these constraints around production, that chia, plus strong demand in other areas, … [is] enough to keep a tight supply chain over the next couple quarters,\" he says.Still, some critics are already fretting that the growing amount of hardware used to farm more chia could eventually erode how \"green\" it actually is, as more equipment would mean more energy consumption. \"I do worry that when they do grow, this proof of space and time has kind of the same methodology [as] proof of work, like Bitcoin, and their model is: you ultimately have to buy more equipment to get paid,\" John Wu, president of Ava Labs, which has its own blockchain platform, recently told Fortune.But for now, the rising demand and prices for such equipment should likely be a boon for the likes of Western Digital.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139037859,"gmtCreate":1621572910671,"gmtModify":1704359903844,"author":{"id":"3554973110224284","authorId":"3554973110224284","name":"Khek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5d8a205ac48a55d17ec603ca6a0ee3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554973110224284","idStr":"3554973110224284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Make sense","listText":"Make sense","text":"Make sense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139037859","repostId":"1161150268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".DJI":"道琼斯","MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":302171428638880,"gmtCreate":1714791745110,"gmtModify":1714791993845,"author":{"id":"3554973110224284","authorId":"3554973110224284","name":"Khek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5d8a205ac48a55d17ec603ca6a0ee3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554973110224284","authorIdStr":"3554973110224284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/N2IU.SI\">$Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/N2IU.SI\">$Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$ </a> ","text":"$Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr(N2IU.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/302171428638880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135684233,"gmtCreate":1622161474922,"gmtModify":1704180529786,"author":{"id":"3554973110224284","authorId":"3554973110224284","name":"Khek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5d8a205ac48a55d17ec603ca6a0ee3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554973110224284","authorIdStr":"3554973110224284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135684233","repostId":"2138171111","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139037859,"gmtCreate":1621572910671,"gmtModify":1704359903844,"author":{"id":"3554973110224284","authorId":"3554973110224284","name":"Khek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5d8a205ac48a55d17ec603ca6a0ee3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554973110224284","authorIdStr":"3554973110224284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Make sense","listText":"Make sense","text":"Make sense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139037859","repostId":"1161150268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161150268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621565435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161150268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161150268","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks . Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be wor","content":"<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.</p><p>That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”</p><p>There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.</p><p>To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.</p><p>Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.</p><p>Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”</p><p>Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.</p><p><b>How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?</b></p><p>Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.</p><p>One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).</p><p>Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.</p><p>The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.</p><p>Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the future for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and other pricey growth stocks isn’t so bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 10:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".DJI":"道琼斯","MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-future-for-microsoft-amazon-google-apple-and-other-pricey-growth-stocks-isnt-so-bright-11621462054?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161150268","content_text":"It will be virtually impossible for some of the U.S. stock market’s largest companies to grow fast enough to justify their current valuations.That’s the conclusion reached by a recent study conducted by Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at investment firm StoneX. His argument isn’t just that certain large-cap growth companies are trading on the assumption their revenues will grow at improbably fast rates. He adds that even if a given company does grow at a fast-enough pace, it soon would be larger than the market as a whole. In that case “valuations are mathematically impossible.”There are limits to growth, in other words. As John Maynard Keynes put it a century ago: trees don’t grow to the sky.To illustrate, Deluard analyzed the 351 companies within the Russell 3000 index that trade for more than 10 times sales. That’s much higher than the market as a whole; the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio is 3.0. Deluard generously assumed that these companies’ revenue will grow by a factor of 54 over the next 17 years —equivalent to 26% annualized. He further assumed that, at the end of those 17 years, their price-to-sales ratios would be 6.4-to-1.Deluard used these extremely generous assumptions because they apply to the so-called MAGA stocks (Microsoft,Apple,Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com). Those four companies’ revenues have grown at a 26% annualized pace, on average, over the past 17 years, and their average current price-to-sales ratio is 6.4.Using a discount rate of 10% to calculate the present value of what these 351 companies would be worth in 2038 under his assumptions, Deluard found that 59 of them already have higher market caps. In other words, “the market currently expects that almost 60 companies will be more successful [over the next 17 years] than Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon [have been over the last 17].”Given the increasingly “winner-take-all” U.S. economy, it is in fact most unlikely that there will be many MAGA-like stocks in 2038. After all, the four current MAGA stocks represent around 20% of the total market cap of the S&P 500. These 59 emerging MAGA stocks’ combined market cap in 2038 would therefore be larger than the overall market under any realistic assumptions of the equity market’s performance over the next 17 years.How realistic are Deluard’s assumptions?Deluard’s assumptions are generous, but he himself does not think they are realistic, I hasten to add. His point is that, even with them, it’s hard to justify the valuations of many of today’s high-flying growth stocks.One way he illustrates how unrealistic his assumptions are is to calculate how many years it will take the MAGA stocks to “grow into their valuations.” Take Microsoft, for example, which currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) of nearly 12-to-1. Eventually, of course, the company’s PSR will converge with that of the overall market (currently with a PSR of 3.0), since otherwise the company would have to grow so fast as to become almost as large as the market itself (if not larger).Deluard calculates the number of years it will take for this convergence to take place, even with the generous assumption that Microsoft’s revenue grows for the foreseeable future at the same pace it has for the last five years. Even if its stock price goes nowhere, he reports, this convergence will take 17 years.The analogy Deluard draws is to the so-called Nifty Fifty stocks of the early 1970s. They were the high-flying blue-chip stocks that became so popular that their P/E ratios at the top of the bull market in late 1972 were, on average, double that of the overall market. Though their revenue continued to grow at a fast pace in subsequent years, their extreme overvaluation meant that their stock prices still went nowhere or declined for years thereafter.Another analogy is to Cisco Systems stock at the top of the late 1990s internet bubble, when it briefly was the most valuable stock in the world. Since then the company’s sales have grown at more than twice the rate of the average S&P 500 company. And yet, despite this impressive growth, the company’s stock today is well below where it stood then. Deluard believes that a similar fate faces not just the MAGA stocks, but also the U.S. market’s many other extremely overvalued growth stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139012029,"gmtCreate":1621573528461,"gmtModify":1704359913893,"author":{"id":"3554973110224284","authorId":"3554973110224284","name":"Khek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5d8a205ac48a55d17ec603ca6a0ee3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554973110224284","authorIdStr":"3554973110224284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stock to monitor","listText":"Good stock to monitor","text":"Good stock to monitor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139012029","repostId":"2137971997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
