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2023-06-02

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@ETF Tracker:Why is ETF the Best Choice For Newcomers?

2023-06-02

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@Tiger_Earnings:All-Time-High Consumer Discretionary Stocks in Q1: PEP, CMG, CELH, ELF

2023-05-23

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@JC888:Jerome Powell 19 May 2023 Talk On Interest Rate & US Mkt Direction?

2023-05-23

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@Asphen:TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==> This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!

2023-05-23

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@KYHBKO:An in depth analysis of Alibaba's latest earnings dated 18May2023

2021-09-03

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业绩向上 vs 股价向下：中芯国际（00981）们是“该杀”还是“错杀”？

2021-08-19

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Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next

2021-06-27

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200亿美元！一天9.8万吨水！台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息

2021-06-19

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2021-06-15

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【权益变动】枫叶教育(01317.HK)获主席兼CEO任书良增持200万股

2021-03-10

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@肖申可比克:宏觀角度對股市的一些思考，還會繼續跌麼？

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182803601662048","repostId":"182309605408768","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":182309605408768,"gmtCreate":1685536695744,"gmtModify":1685536783702,"author":{"id":"3527667646990931","authorId":"3527667646990931","name":"ETF Tracker","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/087e050021c7db2ae39b1cb7515b694d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667646990931","idStr":"3527667646990931"},"themes":[],"title":"Why is ETF the Best Choice For Newcomers?","htmlText":"For many newcomers to the stock market, the most difficult thing is not stock selection or market timing, but having a correct understanding of stock market risks. 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Investing in ETFs is the best way to help novice investors understand investments and control risks.What are the risks in stock market?The risks in the stock market come from two sources: individual stock risk and systematic risk.Individual stock risk refers to the specific risks associated with a particular stock, such as financi","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e1f8ca0df67afdad3c98c1f5bb8cf0e","width":"760","height":"428"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182309605408768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182802753519744,"gmtCreate":1685638819018,"gmtModify":1685638822950,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182802753519744","repostId":"182317744746616","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":182317744746616,"gmtCreate":1685538552567,"gmtModify":1685885361415,"author":{"id":"3527667620927015","authorId":"3527667620927015","name":"Tiger_Earnings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849fb1fb43d93db3974fd09c5f65ff1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667620927015","idStr":"3527667620927015"},"themes":[],"title":"All-Time-High Consumer Discretionary Stocks in Q1: PEP, CMG, CELH, ELF","htmlText":"As the earnings season is coming to an end, we’d like to review this earnings season. Many stocks rose to an all-time-high or a new high in Q1.According to Factset, consumer discretionary sector posted the highest earnings growth. Therefore, this article will list the cosumer discretionary stocks that reach a new high in Q1.Consumer Discretionary Stocks That Reached A New High1.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PEP\">$Pepsi(PEP)$</a> rose to an all-time-high of $196.88 on 15th&nbsp;May.&nbsp;It posted earnings on 26th April, which boosted its outlook for the year and beat revenue expectations.&nbsp;Adjusted EPS: $1.50 vs. $1.39Revenue: $17.85 bln vs. $17.22 bln&nbsp;2. Burrito chain&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CMG\">$Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$</a> rose to an all-time-high of $213","listText":"As the earnings season is coming to an end, we’d like to review this earnings season. Many stocks rose to an all-time-high or a new high in Q1.According to Factset, consumer discretionary sector posted the highest earnings growth. Therefore, this article will list the cosumer discretionary stocks that reach a new high in Q1.Consumer Discretionary Stocks That Reached A New High1.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PEP\">$Pepsi(PEP)$</a> rose to an all-time-high of $196.88 on 15th&nbsp;May.&nbsp;It posted earnings on 26th April, which boosted its outlook for the year and beat revenue expectations.&nbsp;Adjusted EPS: $1.50 vs. $1.39Revenue: $17.85 bln vs. $17.22 bln&nbsp;2. Burrito chain&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CMG\">$Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$</a> rose to an all-time-high of $213","text":"As the earnings season is coming to an end, we’d like to review this earnings season. Many stocks rose to an all-time-high or a new high in Q1.According to Factset, consumer discretionary sector posted the highest earnings growth. Therefore, this article will list the cosumer discretionary stocks that reach a new high in Q1.Consumer Discretionary Stocks That Reached A New High1.$Pepsi(PEP)$ rose to an all-time-high of $196.88 on 15th May. It posted earnings on 26th April, which boosted its outlook for the year and beat revenue expectations. Adjusted EPS: $1.50 vs. $1.39Revenue: $17.85 bln vs. $17.22 bln 2. Burrito chain $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ rose to an all-time-high of $213","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f4d1074a7700118da06e1e6be3ec41c1","width":"923","height":"500"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dc9a40c8f1a2758520df48d345259c0","width":"1080","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85efe698fbf8ba542e12acaeb65cccc9","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182317744746616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970406432,"gmtCreate":1684772672527,"gmtModify":1684772676518,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970406432","repostId":"9970538621","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970538621,"gmtCreate":1684639043463,"gmtModify":1703658114178,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570103090255456","idStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"Jerome Powell 19 May 2023 Talk On Interest Rate & US Mkt Direction?","htmlText":"The speech by Mr Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, on Friday, 19 May 2023, was closely watched by investors and analysts who were looking for clues on the future direction of US monetary policy. Below are 5 key points that I derived after watching the discussion sessions on Youtube: On whether US interest rates will need to rise further, Mr Powell said that it is still unclear and the Fed team will have to monitor official data - month by month to determine. Recent bank-run debacle and the stresses it had brought to the banking sector could mean that “our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals”, so said the Fed chairman. Although inflation is far above the objective of 2% and still poses significant hardships, Fed is strongly committed to","listText":"The speech by Mr Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, on Friday, 19 May 2023, was closely watched by investors and analysts who were looking for clues on the future direction of US monetary policy. Below are 5 key points that I derived after watching the discussion sessions on Youtube: On whether US interest rates will need to rise further, Mr Powell said that it is still unclear and the Fed team will have to monitor official data - month by month to determine. Recent bank-run debacle and the stresses it had brought to the banking sector could mean that “our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals”, so said the Fed chairman. Although inflation is far above the objective of 2% and still poses significant hardships, Fed is strongly committed to","text":"The speech by Mr Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, on Friday, 19 May 2023, was closely watched by investors and analysts who were looking for clues on the future direction of US monetary policy. Below are 5 key points that I derived after watching the discussion sessions on Youtube: On whether US interest rates will need to rise further, Mr Powell said that it is still unclear and the Fed team will have to monitor official data - month by month to determine. Recent bank-run debacle and the stresses it had brought to the banking sector could mean that “our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals”, so said the Fed chairman. Although inflation is far above the objective of 2% and still poses significant hardships, Fed is strongly committed to","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/06cdb16f09aa10a96a8464536d728b6b","width":"1104","height":"334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b59cecff4d74363faefceed07bd5e04b","width":"1169","height":"436"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c733f75ffad60b84143217f1fa7f0afc","width":"1081","height":"332"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970538621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970406581,"gmtCreate":1684772653643,"gmtModify":1684772657185,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970406581","repostId":"9970511108","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970511108,"gmtCreate":1684664897305,"gmtModify":1684664905084,"author":{"id":"3576339097425722","authorId":"3576339097425722","name":"Asphen","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ff1b64b2787933c17d863ecae83f09","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576339097425722","idStr":"3576339097425722"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==&gt; This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!","listText":"TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==&gt; This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!","text":"TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==> This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11e390cb51f9ac70b9fa17da206640b1","width":"1280","height":"660"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970511108","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970406204,"gmtCreate":1684772638409,"gmtModify":1684772642181,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970406204","repostId":"9970532463","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970532463,"gmtCreate":1684649944053,"gmtModify":1684650038210,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574381076586256","idStr":"3574381076586256"},"themes":[],"title":"An in depth analysis of Alibaba's latest earnings dated 18May2023","htmlText":"I have been investing in Aliaba (BABA) for the last few years and thus, I could write with investor bias. BABA’s recent performance &lt;Provided by Google Bard AI&gt; Alibaba's revenue, net income, free cash flow, retained earnings, assets, and liabilities have all grown significantly over the past few years. In 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 10% to $247.8 billion. Net income grew by 2% to $35.9 billion. Free cash flow grew by 16% to $7.5 billion. Retained earnings grew by 18% to $132.3 billion. Assets grew by 14% to $844.5 billion. Liabilities grew by 13% to $371.3 billion. This growth is due to a number of factors, including the continued expansion of Alibaba's e-commerce business, the growth of its cloud computing business, and the expansion of its international business. Alibaba's gr","listText":"I have been investing in Aliaba (BABA) for the last few years and thus, I could write with investor bias. BABA’s recent performance &lt;Provided by Google Bard AI&gt; Alibaba's revenue, net income, free cash flow, retained earnings, assets, and liabilities have all grown significantly over the past few years. In 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 10% to $247.8 billion. Net income grew by 2% to $35.9 billion. Free cash flow grew by 16% to $7.5 billion. Retained earnings grew by 18% to $132.3 billion. Assets grew by 14% to $844.5 billion. Liabilities grew by 13% to $371.3 billion. This growth is due to a number of factors, including the continued expansion of Alibaba's e-commerce business, the growth of its cloud computing business, and the expansion of its international business. Alibaba's gr","text":"I have been investing in Aliaba (BABA) for the last few years and thus, I could write with investor bias. BABA’s recent performance <Provided by Google Bard AI> Alibaba's revenue, net income, free cash flow, retained earnings, assets, and liabilities have all grown significantly over the past few years. In 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 10% to $247.8 billion. Net income grew by 2% to $35.9 billion. Free cash flow grew by 16% to $7.5 billion. Retained earnings grew by 18% to $132.3 billion. Assets grew by 14% to $844.5 billion. Liabilities grew by 13% to $371.3 billion. This growth is due to a number of factors, including the continued expansion of Alibaba's e-commerce business, the growth of its cloud computing business, and the expansion of its international business. Alibaba's gr","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22e6f3c269d676390d70db7de9234485","width":"1174","height":"1030"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6fe2390a37bc0e7bdbb1fa326b152f24","width":"944","height":"434"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/adf8c6acc8c7798eb4c08edfdc4d7467","width":"1167","height":"1112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970532463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815216601,"gmtCreate":1630680220203,"gmtModify":1676530375385,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815216601","repostId":"2164687796","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2164687796","pubTimestamp":1630678845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2164687796?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"业绩向上 vs 股价向下：中芯国际（00981）们是“该杀”还是“错杀”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164687796","media":"智通财经网","summary":"台积电和联电股价在短暂回调后重回高位，而中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价在整一个月内都呈现下跌的态势。","content":"<html><body><div> <p>虽然同属晶圆制造板块，但不同晶圆制造公司的股价表现迥然不同。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">联电</a>股价在短暂回调后重回高位，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>的股价在整一个月内都呈现下跌的态势。</p><p>8月中上旬是整个行业性下跌的表现，而大陆晶圆制造双雄在8月中下旬的继续下跌也受到国内整个半导体板块下行的拖累影响。</p><center><img height=\"365\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f7cad4fc770392e049240e7b67d536c4.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：Wind、海豚投研整理</p><p>8月中下旬国内半导体板块下行，主要受“代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)”以及“设备降价(半导体设备公司承压)”等传言影响。</p><p>1)代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)：挤压了设计公司的盈利能力，同时影响了设计公司的产能安全。台积电、联电、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>等厂商都将有2位数的价格提升;</p><p>2)设备降价(半导体设备公司承压)：Digitimes报道，台积电设备和材料供应商价格于2022年至少降低15%。海外设备厂的市场降价预期影响国内半导体的替代预期。</p><p>对于上述的一系列事件，其实反而更加凸显晶圆制造环节的产业链地位。从产业链环节看，晶圆制造的上游是设备材料，下游是设计应用，代工厂本身就处于产业链的核心地位。</p><p>1)上游设备厂本身就有定期降价的策略，来维系晶圆制造厂长期稳定订单的需求;</p><p>2)下游的设计应用公司，由于Fab的模式，产能多少完全掌握在晶圆制造厂手中。在供不应求的情况下，设计应用公司要承受晶圆制造厂的压力。</p><p>上游设备端的降价，利好晶圆制造厂的产能扩充;对下游代工价格的提升，能有效提升晶圆制造厂的盈利能力。半导体高景气的供需差来自于晶圆制造环节!</p><center><img height=\"247\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/af8cc262ffb8b2776c551b156b943f2e.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：海豚投研</p><p>虽然大陆晶圆制造厂近期股价表现低迷，但投资仍要立足于财报来观察行业基本面情况。在8月社零数据不及预期的情况下，晶圆制造行业是市场中少有的持续成长方向。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>2021年二季度营收实现13.44亿美元，同比增速更是达到43.2%，此外台积电、联电和华虹的营收增速也同样表现强劲。</p><center><img height=\"150\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00b9b38ac43caa5bd70b5d0314215548.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>在行业公司陆续披露2021年二季度财报后，海豚君来梳理晶圆制造行业的景气度情况：</p><p>1、晶圆制造行业的收入增长来自于量价齐升。2019年以来各晶圆制造厂出货量逐季上升，本季<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>的出货量更是有2位数的环比提升。供需端的紧张推升了出货价的上涨，中芯国际和联电的出货提升最为明显;</p><p>2、产能利用率过百，扩产仍满载。旺盛需求推动扩产的进程，晶圆制造厂在本季都实现了产能的扩充。即使在产能扩充情况下，三大晶圆制造厂的产能利用率仍然过百，显现超高景气度;</p><p>3、毛利率受价格拉动，短期和长期都向上。台积电毛利率下行有其自身产品结构的特殊性，其余三家晶圆制造厂毛利率上行更能体现行业性。从成本结构分析，本季行业毛利率上行主要由产品价格的拉动带来。</p><p>短期维度行业高景气提升盈利水平，长期维度折旧摊销的减少带动长期盈利水平上移;</p><p>4、国产替代进行时，凸显消费电子需求和12寸晶圆的稀缺性。国产替代的需求旺盛，本季各大晶圆厂中国/亚太区的收入占比都有提升，尤其是大陆晶圆制造厂的中国区收入甚至都超过了60%。</p><p>5G和IoT推动消费电子需求，由于相关制程要求不太高，国产替代下大陆晶圆厂相关业务增长尤其明显。12寸晶圆业务的高增长，更是体现了大陆12寸晶圆的稀缺性。</p><p>整体上，本季晶圆制造行业的各方面表现都呈现出高景气度，也验证了海豚君此前《透过联电看中芯国际：晶圆制造yyds!》的判断。晶圆制造行业在短期维度层面受益于行业景气上升趋势，收入规模和盈利能力都呈现向上增长。</p><p>长期维度层面，随着折旧摊销的减少，行业盈利能力水平有望实现整体上移。在国产替代的进程中，大陆晶圆制造厂在产能利用率和成长的持续性上将尤为受益。大陆晶圆制造双雄着力提升12寸晶圆占比，同样凸显出大陆12寸晶圆的稀缺性和重要性。</p><p>大陆晶圆制造公司股价短期低迷，有受到国内半导体板块的拖累影响。从产业链分析各传言的影响，反而印证了晶圆制造在半导体产业链中的核心地位。上游降价和代工涨价，中游晶圆制造厂都将受益。抽丝剥茧，重新审视被错杀的大陆晶圆制造厂!</p><p>海豚君和大家一起来细看行业财报情况：</p><p>一  晶圆制造行业量价齐升，持续高景气</p><p><strong>1.1 收入增长背后的量价关系：量价齐升</strong></p><p>量的维度：晶圆制造行业的出货量在2019年一季度出现短暂下滑后，季度出货量呈现逐季提升的情况。</p><p>2021年二季度四大主要晶圆制造厂的出货量进一步提升，其中中芯国际2021年一季度的季度出货量达到1745千片，同比增长21.6%，环比增速也达到12%。</p><center><img height=\"150\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/86493a92252f4b9e6213add4b93c067a.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><center><img height=\"285\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f65e3922b912a2ca6af1335ca4326128.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>价的维度：不同公司呈现不同的价格变化特征，主要由于产品的市场化情况不同。台积电的晶圆历史出货均价呈现逐年上升，主要由于台积电技术领先，市场化定价较小。先进工艺产能的释放，高端产品占比提升带动出货均价上移。联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家的晶圆历史出货均价相对平稳，主要是由于产品市场化程度高，出货均价受市场波动较大。</p><p>从观察晶圆制造行业的角度，联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的价格变动更能体现行业性。其中中芯国际2021年二季度出货均价770美元/片，同比增长17.8%，环比增长8.8%。三家制造厂的季度环比增速继续提升，联电环比增长7.6%(QoQ+7.2pct)/中芯国际环比增长8.8%(QoQ  +6.6pct)/华虹半导体环比增长4%(QoQ +1.8pct)。</p><p>三大晶圆制造厂的季度出货均价提升反应晶圆制造行业的高景气，其中联电和中芯国际在出货均价方面上涨更为明显。</p><center><img height=\"125\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/4250517f0d72e5c9cfb64f34300617db.jpg\" width=\"553\"/></center><center><img height=\"236\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6547abb2c1a3881b0d3be92f58835675.jpg\" width=\"553\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>1.2 产能利用率情况：扩产进行时依然满载</strong></p><p>2021年二季度联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家的产能利用率均达到了100%及以上，饱满的产能利用率折射着晶圆制造的高景气。其中中芯国际的产能利用率近年来首次站上100%，联电和华虹半导体的产能利用率在2021年一季度满载后，季度连续呈现高负荷运转，华虹半导体的产能利用率更是创历史新高达到109.5%。</p><p>高产能利用率背后，更暗含着扩产下依然满载。2021年二季度联电和华虹半导体的产能分别环比增长3.9%和3.8%，而中芯国际的产能更是环比增长了10.1%。</p><p>中芯国际在取得两位数的产能扩充同时，产能利用率从98.7%进一步提升到100.4%，进一步体现了产能端的紧张情况。</p><center><img height=\"304\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/74343377d225f98e689a4729a3b40d86.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>1.3 毛利率：景气度推动盈利能力提升</strong></p><p>台积电的毛利率仍领先于整个行业，但从毛利率的变化趋势上不同于行业内其他公司，主要是由于台积电的产品特殊性不够具有行业代表性。2021年二季度台积电毛利率50%，同比和环比都有所下滑，主要由于台积电出货均价未有明显提高，而成本端有所上升。</p><p>联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家毛利率均有环比提升，体现晶圆制造行业性盈利能力提升的现象。其中中芯国际季度毛利率提升最为明显，2021年二季度中芯国际毛利率30.1%，环比提升7.5%。联电和华虹半导体季度毛利率为31.2%和24.8%，也分别环比提升4.7%和1.1%。三家晶圆制造厂毛利率的提升，主要受益于行业景气度上升，产品出货价格上涨所致。</p><center><img height=\"150\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1a4b0e61c7230f285c071df887f5e9e1.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>二  抽丝剥茧晶圆制造行业深处的数据关系</p><p><strong>2.1 毛利率分析视角-成本结构角度：产品价格上涨主导毛利率上升</strong></p><p>从成本结构角度具体分析，行业公司毛利率变化的主要驱动因素。台积电的毛利率下滑，主要在于二季度台积电的单片出货均价从1709美元到1712美元的提升并不明显，而单片成本却从814美元大幅提升到856美元，进而挤压了公司的毛利率水平。</p><p>联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的毛利率提升主要是出货价格上涨带来，其中二季度联电和中芯国际单片出货均价环比分别提升了53美元和62美元。虽然产能扩充和材料上涨等方面会带来成本的上升，但由于产品价格上涨完全承担了成本项的增加，三家公司毛利率都表现上升的情况。</p><center><img height=\"243\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/46575bcdff388fa2efaa199f9b45e527.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>2.2 换个视角再看毛利率：剔除折旧摊销后，长期毛利率上行</strong></p><p>财报中的表观毛利率，由于其中包含折旧摊销等影响，未能很好地表明公司的经营性情况。换个视角观察毛利率(剔除折旧摊销)的指标，更体现公司经营层面的盈利能力。晶圆制造行业具有制造业的特性，在供不应求的情况提升资本开支进行扩产，从而带来折旧和摊销的增加。</p><p>虽然中芯国际的报表毛利率并不突出，但是在剔除掉折旧摊销影响后，中芯国际2021年二季度毛利率达到55.9%，明显领先于联电和华虹半导体。</p><p>报表毛利率受折旧摊销影响，主要由于公司的持续扩产，但经营层面的盈利能力随着行业景气度上升而提升明显。从长期维度看，资本开支的折旧摊销随着时间逐渐减少，行业盈利能力有望向上抬升。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210903/1630678990674753.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1630678990674753.png\"/></p><p><strong>2.3 晶圆制造地区收入：呈现国产替代进行时</strong></p><p>在联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的收入中，中国或亚太区的收入占比都有60%以上，表现晶圆制造有着强烈的国产需求。在台积电收入占比较小，主要由于台积电以先进制程工艺为主，先进工艺全球主要客户来自于海外厂商。</p><p>从二季度各公司的收入占比看，四家厂商的中国区收入都有提升，尤其是中芯国际提升最为明显(+7pct)，中国区的收入占比达到63%。即使是以先进制程工艺为主的台积电，本季中国区的收入占比回到11%。在经历大陆大客户事件后中国区占比重新回升，表现中国晶圆制造需求的旺盛。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210903/1630679013242252.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1630679013242252.png\"/></p><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>2.4 下游应用表现：5G&amp;IoT带动消费电子需求，国产替代带来业务高增速</strong></p><p>台积电本季度的增长动力主要来自于高性能计算领域，环比增长14.6%远高于公司增速，主要是由于公司先进制程工艺的出货提升。汽车和数字消费电子领域在台积电的占比不高，虽然占比没提升但仍保持正向增长。</p><p>台积电由于技术的领先，分应用的产品增长不太具有行业性特征，台积电优先发展先进工艺的产能。国际客户优先选择台积电和联电产能以保证供应链安全，在台积电优先发展优先产能情况下，联电的季度增长主要来自于资讯电脑和通讯类业务的增长。</p><p>中芯国际和华虹半导体的季度增长主要来自于消费电子及电子消费品等带动。5G和IoT推动消费类电子的需求增长，由于消费类电子产品相关芯片制程要求不太高，在国产替代的推动下业务高增长。二季度中芯国际的消费电子业务环比增长50.7%，国内巨大的需求带动消费电子业务占比提升至25%。</p><p>中芯国际其他业务中主要是包含汽车和工业等应用，该业务环比增长24.1%，强劲增长主要来自于新能源车等应用市场的增量拉动。华虹半导体的电子消费品同样受益于相关应用国产替代的推动，在各应用中增长最快。</p><center><img height=\"200\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8528e0c0e44ccd30f084fbba9d40c4af.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>2.5 各晶圆尺寸市场：大陆12寸晶圆高增长，国产替代稀缺性</strong></p><p>台积电和联电的季度收入增长没有明显的结构性变化，在8寸和12寸上的增速都接近于公司整体增速，主要是由于两厂商的产能提升较小，主要受出货价影响。</p><p>中芯国际和华虹半导体的季度收入有结构性的变化。中芯国际整体环比增速达21%，而12寸晶圆的环比增速更是达到27.3%，在价格因素外还主要因为华为事件后28nm及以下节点的产能重新填补。华虹半导体12寸晶圆收入环比增长有54%，主要是由于华虹对12寸产能的重视，产能也陆续释放。从中芯国际和华虹半导体提升12寸晶圆收入占比的角度，国内晶圆厂对12寸晶圆的重视以及国内对12寸晶圆的迫切需求。在国产替代层面上，12寸晶圆更凸显其稀缺性。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210903/1630679056964152.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1630679056964152.png\"/></p><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>三  三季度及下半年展望</p><p><strong>1、收入层面：量价齐升延续</strong></p><p>二季度晶圆制造行业的收入增长来自于量价齐升，三季度量价齐升逻辑有望延续。</p><p>1)量的逻辑：主要晶圆厂商仍维持扩张节奏。中芯国际维持原有扩产目标，“北京厂12英寸增加1万片，在12月出货;深圳和天津厂8英寸扩产增加4.5万片，会在四季度实现”;华虹半导体扩产计划仍进行，“无锡  12 寸晶圆厂月产能，预计至年底增加1.7  万片”;联电三季度指引出货环比增长1-2%，并进一步上调扩产目标，“P5产能增加0.6万片月产能，今年底前到位;P6从原计划的2.75万片上提到3.25万片，预计2023年2季投产”。</p><p>2)价的逻辑：晶圆制造，涨价之声此起彼伏。联电，三季度指引出货价环比上涨6%，并传出11月将进一步涨价;台积电，台湾媒体报道2022年一季度起对成熟制程涨15-20%，先进制程涨10%;其他晶圆厂，韩国媒体The  Elec九月初报导，三星和Key Foundry也决定涨价，调涨幅度在15%到20%间，4到5个月后生效。</p><p><strong>2、盈利能力层面：价格上涨依然提升毛利率</strong></p><p>扒开二季度财报，行业盈利能力上行主要受益于价格的上涨。展望三季度，价格上涨依然有望带动盈利能力向上。</p><p>毛利率逻辑：在折旧摊销相对稳定的情况下，价格成为影响毛利率主要因素。三季度晶圆代工价格的上涨有望进一步推动毛利率上行。</p><p>中芯国际，三季度毛利率指引32~34%，在二季度30.1%的毛利率基础上进一步提升;华虹半导体，三季度毛利率预计在25-27%，在二季度毛利率24.2%上再提升;联电共同总经理王石预期，三季度毛利率有望攀高至35%水平，二季度毛利率为31.2%。</p><p><strong>3、板块展望：行业景气度持续，盈利能力进一步向好</strong></p><p>行业景气度的持续带来台积电和联电的股价重回增长，联电再次创历史新高。而彼时中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价表现相对低迷，被整个国内半导体板块拖累，存在错杀的可能。</p><p>上游半导体设备端存在设备价格下降的市场担心，而下游设计应用端是承受代工涨价和产能不确定的压力。反观中游晶圆制造端是整个产业链的核心环节，上游降价和对下游的涨价都将让中游环节的晶圆制造受益。</p><p>从市场恐慌中，发现机会。前段时间<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>对存储的悲观报告带来了市场的恐慌，而其中提到“SMIC(中芯国际) could support  the current capacity to GigaDevice, but there could be a reason for it to hold  back incremental supply for NOR，given the better profit and stronger demand  (mainly from China) for other logic products”。</p><p>这也验证了三季度中芯国际产能饱满，可自行挑选客户，并佐证了公司指引中进一步向上的毛利率。半导体的供需差核心在于晶圆制造端，在景气周期上制造厂有绝对的议价权和产能调配权。</p><p><strong>本文来源于“海豚投研”微信公众号；智通财经编辑：文文。</strong></p> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>业绩向上 vs 股价向下：中芯国际（00981）们是“该杀”还是“错杀”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n业绩向上 vs 股价向下：中芯国际（00981）们是“该杀”还是“错杀”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 22:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/554383.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>虽然同属晶圆制造板块，但不同晶圆制造公司的股价表现迥然不同。台积电和联电股价在短暂回调后重回高位，而中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价在整一个月内都呈现下跌的态势。8月中上旬是整个行业性下跌的表现，而大陆晶圆制造双雄在8月中下旬的继续下跌也受到国内整个半导体板块下行的拖累影响。来源：Wind、海豚投研整理8月中下旬国内半导体板块下行，主要受“代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)”以及“设备降价(半导体设备公司承压...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/554383.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210903/20210903222531_81438.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","SMI":"VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni ETF","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/554383.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2164687796","content_text":"虽然同属晶圆制造板块，但不同晶圆制造公司的股价表现迥然不同。台积电和联电股价在短暂回调后重回高位，而中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价在整一个月内都呈现下跌的态势。8月中上旬是整个行业性下跌的表现，而大陆晶圆制造双雄在8月中下旬的继续下跌也受到国内整个半导体板块下行的拖累影响。来源：Wind、海豚投研整理8月中下旬国内半导体板块下行，主要受“代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)”以及“设备降价(半导体设备公司承压)”等传言影响。1)代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)：挤压了设计公司的盈利能力，同时影响了设计公司的产能安全。台积电、联电、三星等厂商都将有2位数的价格提升;2)设备降价(半导体设备公司承压)：Digitimes报道，台积电设备和材料供应商价格于2022年至少降低15%。海外设备厂的市场降价预期影响国内半导体的替代预期。对于上述的一系列事件，其实反而更加凸显晶圆制造环节的产业链地位。从产业链环节看，晶圆制造的上游是设备材料，下游是设计应用，代工厂本身就处于产业链的核心地位。1)上游设备厂本身就有定期降价的策略，来维系晶圆制造厂长期稳定订单的需求;2)下游的设计应用公司，由于Fab的模式，产能多少完全掌握在晶圆制造厂手中。在供不应求的情况下，设计应用公司要承受晶圆制造厂的压力。上游设备端的降价，利好晶圆制造厂的产能扩充;对下游代工价格的提升，能有效提升晶圆制造厂的盈利能力。半导体高景气的供需差来自于晶圆制造环节!来源：海豚投研虽然大陆晶圆制造厂近期股价表现低迷，但投资仍要立足于财报来观察行业基本面情况。在8月社零数据不及预期的情况下，晶圆制造行业是市场中少有的持续成长方向。中芯国际2021年二季度营收实现13.44亿美元，同比增速更是达到43.2%，此外台积电、联电和华虹的营收增速也同样表现强劲。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理在行业公司陆续披露2021年二季度财报后，海豚君来梳理晶圆制造行业的景气度情况：1、晶圆制造行业的收入增长来自于量价齐升。2019年以来各晶圆制造厂出货量逐季上升，本季中芯国际的出货量更是有2位数的环比提升。供需端的紧张推升了出货价的上涨，中芯国际和联电的出货提升最为明显;2、产能利用率过百，扩产仍满载。旺盛需求推动扩产的进程，晶圆制造厂在本季都实现了产能的扩充。即使在产能扩充情况下，三大晶圆制造厂的产能利用率仍然过百，显现超高景气度;3、毛利率受价格拉动，短期和长期都向上。台积电毛利率下行有其自身产品结构的特殊性，其余三家晶圆制造厂毛利率上行更能体现行业性。从成本结构分析，本季行业毛利率上行主要由产品价格的拉动带来。短期维度行业高景气提升盈利水平，长期维度折旧摊销的减少带动长期盈利水平上移;4、国产替代进行时，凸显消费电子需求和12寸晶圆的稀缺性。国产替代的需求旺盛，本季各大晶圆厂中国/亚太区的收入占比都有提升，尤其是大陆晶圆制造厂的中国区收入甚至都超过了60%。5G和IoT推动消费电子需求，由于相关制程要求不太高，国产替代下大陆晶圆厂相关业务增长尤其明显。12寸晶圆业务的高增长，更是体现了大陆12寸晶圆的稀缺性。整体上，本季晶圆制造行业的各方面表现都呈现出高景气度，也验证了海豚君此前《透过联电看中芯国际：晶圆制造yyds!》的判断。晶圆制造行业在短期维度层面受益于行业景气上升趋势，收入规模和盈利能力都呈现向上增长。长期维度层面，随着折旧摊销的减少，行业盈利能力水平有望实现整体上移。在国产替代的进程中，大陆晶圆制造厂在产能利用率和成长的持续性上将尤为受益。大陆晶圆制造双雄着力提升12寸晶圆占比，同样凸显出大陆12寸晶圆的稀缺性和重要性。大陆晶圆制造公司股价短期低迷，有受到国内半导体板块的拖累影响。从产业链分析各传言的影响，反而印证了晶圆制造在半导体产业链中的核心地位。上游降价和代工涨价，中游晶圆制造厂都将受益。抽丝剥茧，重新审视被错杀的大陆晶圆制造厂!海豚君和大家一起来细看行业财报情况：一  晶圆制造行业量价齐升，持续高景气1.1 收入增长背后的量价关系：量价齐升量的维度：晶圆制造行业的出货量在2019年一季度出现短暂下滑后，季度出货量呈现逐季提升的情况。2021年二季度四大主要晶圆制造厂的出货量进一步提升，其中中芯国际2021年一季度的季度出货量达到1745千片，同比增长21.6%，环比增速也达到12%。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理价的维度：不同公司呈现不同的价格变化特征，主要由于产品的市场化情况不同。台积电的晶圆历史出货均价呈现逐年上升，主要由于台积电技术领先，市场化定价较小。先进工艺产能的释放，高端产品占比提升带动出货均价上移。联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家的晶圆历史出货均价相对平稳，主要是由于产品市场化程度高，出货均价受市场波动较大。从观察晶圆制造行业的角度，联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的价格变动更能体现行业性。其中中芯国际2021年二季度出货均价770美元/片，同比增长17.8%，环比增长8.8%。三家制造厂的季度环比增速继续提升，联电环比增长7.6%(QoQ+7.2pct)/中芯国际环比增长8.8%(QoQ  +6.6pct)/华虹半导体环比增长4%(QoQ +1.8pct)。三大晶圆制造厂的季度出货均价提升反应晶圆制造行业的高景气，其中联电和中芯国际在出货均价方面上涨更为明显。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理1.2 产能利用率情况：扩产进行时依然满载2021年二季度联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家的产能利用率均达到了100%及以上，饱满的产能利用率折射着晶圆制造的高景气。其中中芯国际的产能利用率近年来首次站上100%，联电和华虹半导体的产能利用率在2021年一季度满载后，季度连续呈现高负荷运转，华虹半导体的产能利用率更是创历史新高达到109.5%。高产能利用率背后，更暗含着扩产下依然满载。2021年二季度联电和华虹半导体的产能分别环比增长3.9%和3.8%，而中芯国际的产能更是环比增长了10.1%。中芯国际在取得两位数的产能扩充同时，产能利用率从98.7%进一步提升到100.4%，进一步体现了产能端的紧张情况。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理1.3 毛利率：景气度推动盈利能力提升台积电的毛利率仍领先于整个行业，但从毛利率的变化趋势上不同于行业内其他公司，主要是由于台积电的产品特殊性不够具有行业代表性。2021年二季度台积电毛利率50%，同比和环比都有所下滑，主要由于台积电出货均价未有明显提高，而成本端有所上升。联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家毛利率均有环比提升，体现晶圆制造行业性盈利能力提升的现象。其中中芯国际季度毛利率提升最为明显，2021年二季度中芯国际毛利率30.1%，环比提升7.5%。联电和华虹半导体季度毛利率为31.2%和24.8%，也分别环比提升4.7%和1.1%。三家晶圆制造厂毛利率的提升，主要受益于行业景气度上升，产品出货价格上涨所致。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理二  抽丝剥茧晶圆制造行业深处的数据关系2.1 毛利率分析视角-成本结构角度：产品价格上涨主导毛利率上升从成本结构角度具体分析，行业公司毛利率变化的主要驱动因素。台积电的毛利率下滑，主要在于二季度台积电的单片出货均价从1709美元到1712美元的提升并不明显，而单片成本却从814美元大幅提升到856美元，进而挤压了公司的毛利率水平。联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的毛利率提升主要是出货价格上涨带来，其中二季度联电和中芯国际单片出货均价环比分别提升了53美元和62美元。虽然产能扩充和材料上涨等方面会带来成本的上升，但由于产品价格上涨完全承担了成本项的增加，三家公司毛利率都表现上升的情况。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理2.2 换个视角再看毛利率：剔除折旧摊销后，长期毛利率上行财报中的表观毛利率，由于其中包含折旧摊销等影响，未能很好地表明公司的经营性情况。换个视角观察毛利率(剔除折旧摊销)的指标，更体现公司经营层面的盈利能力。晶圆制造行业具有制造业的特性，在供不应求的情况提升资本开支进行扩产，从而带来折旧和摊销的增加。虽然中芯国际的报表毛利率并不突出，但是在剔除掉折旧摊销影响后，中芯国际2021年二季度毛利率达到55.9%，明显领先于联电和华虹半导体。报表毛利率受折旧摊销影响，主要由于公司的持续扩产，但经营层面的盈利能力随着行业景气度上升而提升明显。从长期维度看，资本开支的折旧摊销随着时间逐渐减少，行业盈利能力有望向上抬升。2.3 晶圆制造地区收入：呈现国产替代进行时在联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的收入中，中国或亚太区的收入占比都有60%以上，表现晶圆制造有着强烈的国产需求。在台积电收入占比较小，主要由于台积电以先进制程工艺为主，先进工艺全球主要客户来自于海外厂商。从二季度各公司的收入占比看，四家厂商的中国区收入都有提升，尤其是中芯国际提升最为明显(+7pct)，中国区的收入占比达到63%。即使是以先进制程工艺为主的台积电，本季中国区的收入占比回到11%。在经历大陆大客户事件后中国区占比重新回升，表现中国晶圆制造需求的旺盛。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理2.4 下游应用表现：5G&IoT带动消费电子需求，国产替代带来业务高增速台积电本季度的增长动力主要来自于高性能计算领域，环比增长14.6%远高于公司增速，主要是由于公司先进制程工艺的出货提升。汽车和数字消费电子领域在台积电的占比不高，虽然占比没提升但仍保持正向增长。台积电由于技术的领先，分应用的产品增长不太具有行业性特征，台积电优先发展先进工艺的产能。国际客户优先选择台积电和联电产能以保证供应链安全，在台积电优先发展优先产能情况下，联电的季度增长主要来自于资讯电脑和通讯类业务的增长。中芯国际和华虹半导体的季度增长主要来自于消费电子及电子消费品等带动。5G和IoT推动消费类电子的需求增长，由于消费类电子产品相关芯片制程要求不太高，在国产替代的推动下业务高增长。二季度中芯国际的消费电子业务环比增长50.7%，国内巨大的需求带动消费电子业务占比提升至25%。中芯国际其他业务中主要是包含汽车和工业等应用，该业务环比增长24.1%，强劲增长主要来自于新能源车等应用市场的增量拉动。华虹半导体的电子消费品同样受益于相关应用国产替代的推动，在各应用中增长最快。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理2.5 各晶圆尺寸市场：大陆12寸晶圆高增长，国产替代稀缺性台积电和联电的季度收入增长没有明显的结构性变化，在8寸和12寸上的增速都接近于公司整体增速，主要是由于两厂商的产能提升较小，主要受出货价影响。中芯国际和华虹半导体的季度收入有结构性的变化。中芯国际整体环比增速达21%，而12寸晶圆的环比增速更是达到27.3%，在价格因素外还主要因为华为事件后28nm及以下节点的产能重新填补。华虹半导体12寸晶圆收入环比增长有54%，主要是由于华虹对12寸产能的重视，产能也陆续释放。从中芯国际和华虹半导体提升12寸晶圆收入占比的角度，国内晶圆厂对12寸晶圆的重视以及国内对12寸晶圆的迫切需求。在国产替代层面上，12寸晶圆更凸显其稀缺性。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理三  三季度及下半年展望1、收入层面：量价齐升延续二季度晶圆制造行业的收入增长来自于量价齐升，三季度量价齐升逻辑有望延续。1)量的逻辑：主要晶圆厂商仍维持扩张节奏。中芯国际维持原有扩产目标，“北京厂12英寸增加1万片，在12月出货;深圳和天津厂8英寸扩产增加4.5万片，会在四季度实现”;华虹半导体扩产计划仍进行，“无锡  12 寸晶圆厂月产能，预计至年底增加1.7  万片”;联电三季度指引出货环比增长1-2%，并进一步上调扩产目标，“P5产能增加0.6万片月产能，今年底前到位;P6从原计划的2.75万片上提到3.25万片，预计2023年2季投产”。2)价的逻辑：晶圆制造，涨价之声此起彼伏。联电，三季度指引出货价环比上涨6%，并传出11月将进一步涨价;台积电，台湾媒体报道2022年一季度起对成熟制程涨15-20%，先进制程涨10%;其他晶圆厂，韩国媒体The  Elec九月初报导，三星和Key Foundry也决定涨价，调涨幅度在15%到20%间，4到5个月后生效。2、盈利能力层面：价格上涨依然提升毛利率扒开二季度财报，行业盈利能力上行主要受益于价格的上涨。展望三季度，价格上涨依然有望带动盈利能力向上。毛利率逻辑：在折旧摊销相对稳定的情况下，价格成为影响毛利率主要因素。三季度晶圆代工价格的上涨有望进一步推动毛利率上行。中芯国际，三季度毛利率指引32~34%，在二季度30.1%的毛利率基础上进一步提升;华虹半导体，三季度毛利率预计在25-27%，在二季度毛利率24.2%上再提升;联电共同总经理王石预期，三季度毛利率有望攀高至35%水平，二季度毛利率为31.2%。3、板块展望：行业景气度持续，盈利能力进一步向好行业景气度的持续带来台积电和联电的股价重回增长，联电再次创历史新高。而彼时中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价表现相对低迷，被整个国内半导体板块拖累，存在错杀的可能。上游半导体设备端存在设备价格下降的市场担心，而下游设计应用端是承受代工涨价和产能不确定的压力。反观中游晶圆制造端是整个产业链的核心环节，上游降价和对下游的涨价都将让中游环节的晶圆制造受益。从市场恐慌中，发现机会。前段时间Morgan Stanley对存储的悲观报告带来了市场的恐慌，而其中提到“SMIC(中芯国际) could support  the current capacity to GigaDevice, but there could be a reason for it to hold  back incremental supply for NOR，given the better profit and stronger demand  (mainly from China) for other logic products”。这也验证了三季度中芯国际产能饱满，可自行挑选客户，并佐证了公司指引中进一步向上的毛利率。半导体的供需差核心在于晶圆制造端，在景气周期上制造厂有绝对的议价权和产能调配权。本文来源于“海豚投研”微信公众号；智通财经编辑：文文。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831690773,"gmtCreate":1629307626992,"gmtModify":1676529999344,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831690773","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162723925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>\n <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley noted that</p>\n<blockquote>\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart 1</p>\n<p>This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p>\n<p>The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p>\n<p><b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p>\n<p>The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p>\n<p>Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p>\n<p>Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 3</p>\n<p>Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p>\n<p><b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p>\n<p>Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p>\n<p>Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p>\n<p>Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p>\n<p><b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p>\n<p>Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p>\n<p>This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p>\n<p>TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p>\n<p>However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p>\n<p>Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p>\n<p>Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p>\n<p>Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 6</p>\n<p>Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 7</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>\n <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>\n <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... 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Nor The Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124395210,"gmtCreate":1624728842530,"gmtModify":1703844190012,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124395210","repostId":"2146009755","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2146009755","pubTimestamp":1624722986,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146009755?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 23:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"200亿美元！一天9.8万吨水！台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146009755","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"最主要的是，在2nm芯片方面，台积电的建厂成本就高达200亿美元。另外，该工厂建成后，一天就将使用98000立方米的水，等于一天9.8万吨水。而台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息，也意味着将带来两个问题。如今，台积电将建设首个2nm芯片工厂，直接投资超过200亿美元。面对如此严重的淡水资源消耗，这是环保部门没有批准台积电的原因之一。","content":"<html><body><article><p>进入2021年后，芯片行业格外热闹，一方面是全球缺芯，<strong>各大芯片企业都在积极扩大芯片产能</strong>，加速建厂；另外一方面是各大芯片企业在技术上都取得了新突破。</p><p>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>正式对外宣布，将会在今年试产4nm、3nm制程的芯片，并于2022年大规模量产；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>发布了全球首个3nm制程的芯片，虽然是储存类芯片，但也是全球第一，而且，三星也计划在2022年量产3nm制程的芯片。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>则发布了全球首个2nm芯片制造技术，<strong>并将与三星、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>等合作生产制造2nm芯片</strong>。</p><p>随后台积电也发布消息称，2nm芯片的发展超出了预期，将会在2023年试产，2024年试产，为此，台积电在2020年就开始着手扩建工厂，为2nm芯片做准备。</p><p><strong>但就在近日，台积电2nm芯片再次传来新消息。</strong></p><p>据悉，台积电将在位于新竹的科学工业园区建设第一家2nm工厂，但<strong>由于用水、环保等方面的原因，导致该计划被环保部门拒绝了两次。</strong></p><p>最主要的是，在2nm芯片方面，<strong>台积电的建厂成本就高达200亿美元</strong>。另外，该工厂建成后，一天就将使用98000立方米的水，等于一天9.8万吨水。</p><p>而台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息，也意味着将带来两个问题。</p><p><strong>第一个问题，先进制程芯片的价格还会涨。</strong></p><p>据了解，芯片制造技术越先进，其建厂成本就越高，台积电宣布在美国建设5nm芯片生产线，预计投资120亿美元。</p><p>三星在美国建设3nm芯片工厂，预计投资170亿美元。如今，台积电将建设首个2nm芯片工厂，直接投资超过200亿美元。</p><p>我们都知道，<strong>投资金额增加，意味着芯片代工成本也将随之增长</strong>。</p><p>例如，2018年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>骁龙845处理器，其采用10nm工艺，<strong>那时候的综合成本才500多元。而5nm的高通骁龙888处理器，其综合成本都超过200美元以上。</strong></p><p>另外，在台积电的营收贡献中，7nm和5nm工艺贡献了40%以上的营收，从侧面看出，台积电的收入主要来自先进工艺。</p><p>未来3nm、2nm芯片成功制造后，必然会进一步促使智能手机等产品上涨，毕竟近年来，采用先进芯片的智能手机也确实在不断上涨中。</p><p><strong>第二个问题，先进制程的芯片将消耗更多水资源等。</strong></p><p>虽然地球是被水包围着的，但在全球范围内，可用的淡水资源是有限的，而海水淡化的成本实在太高了。</p><p>而台积电的2nm芯片工厂，1天内就要消耗9.8万水，这样的水资源消耗实在有点巨大。</p><p>当然，台积电治之所以需要这么多淡水资源，<strong>主要是将淡水资源净化成为纯水，利用纯水对芯片进行冲洗，从而带走芯片上的杂质。</strong></p><p>制程越小的芯片，其对纯度的要求就越高，自然也就需要更多的纯水进行冲洗。</p><p>但是，台湾省比较缺水，尤其是今年，台湾省缺水程度有点严重，部分地区已经开始采用分时段供水。</p><p>面对如此严重的淡水资源消耗，<strong>这是环保部门没有批准台积电的原因之一</strong>。</p><p>其实，ASML之前就明确表示，越是先进的芯片，其对资源的消耗就越严重，所以ASML才表示，下一代NA EUV光刻机之后，ASML将更注重效率和环保。</p><p>简单说就是，ASML自身也认识到先进制程芯片生产过程中存在资源消耗过多的情况，所以才决定在2025年之后，研发更为环保和效率的光刻机。</p><p>对于台积电传来的2nm芯片的新消息，你们怎么看，欢迎留言、讨论~</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n200亿美元！一天9.8万吨水！台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 23:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062623585479cb5c43&s=b><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>进入2021年后，芯片行业格外热闹，一方面是全球缺芯，各大芯片企业都在积极扩大芯片产能，加速建厂；另外一方面是各大芯片企业在技术上都取得了新突破。例如，台积电正式对外宣布，将会在今年试产4nm、3nm制程的芯片，并于2022年大规模量产；三星发布了全球首个3nm制程的芯片，虽然是储存类芯片，但也是全球第一，而且，三星也计划在2022年量产3nm制程的芯片。IBM则发布了全球首个2nm芯片制造技术，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062623585479cb5c43&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062623585479cb5c43&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2146009755","content_text":"进入2021年后，芯片行业格外热闹，一方面是全球缺芯，各大芯片企业都在积极扩大芯片产能，加速建厂；另外一方面是各大芯片企业在技术上都取得了新突破。例如，台积电正式对外宣布，将会在今年试产4nm、3nm制程的芯片，并于2022年大规模量产；三星发布了全球首个3nm制程的芯片，虽然是储存类芯片，但也是全球第一，而且，三星也计划在2022年量产3nm制程的芯片。IBM则发布了全球首个2nm芯片制造技术，并将与三星、英特尔等合作生产制造2nm芯片。随后台积电也发布消息称，2nm芯片的发展超出了预期，将会在2023年试产，2024年试产，为此，台积电在2020年就开始着手扩建工厂，为2nm芯片做准备。但就在近日，台积电2nm芯片再次传来新消息。据悉，台积电将在位于新竹的科学工业园区建设第一家2nm工厂，但由于用水、环保等方面的原因，导致该计划被环保部门拒绝了两次。最主要的是，在2nm芯片方面，台积电的建厂成本就高达200亿美元。另外，该工厂建成后，一天就将使用98000立方米的水，等于一天9.8万吨水。而台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息，也意味着将带来两个问题。第一个问题，先进制程芯片的价格还会涨。据了解，芯片制造技术越先进，其建厂成本就越高，台积电宣布在美国建设5nm芯片生产线，预计投资120亿美元。三星在美国建设3nm芯片工厂，预计投资170亿美元。如今，台积电将建设首个2nm芯片工厂，直接投资超过200亿美元。我们都知道，投资金额增加，意味着芯片代工成本也将随之增长。例如，2018年的高通骁龙845处理器，其采用10nm工艺，那时候的综合成本才500多元。而5nm的高通骁龙888处理器，其综合成本都超过200美元以上。另外，在台积电的营收贡献中，7nm和5nm工艺贡献了40%以上的营收，从侧面看出，台积电的收入主要来自先进工艺。未来3nm、2nm芯片成功制造后，必然会进一步促使智能手机等产品上涨，毕竟近年来，采用先进芯片的智能手机也确实在不断上涨中。第二个问题，先进制程的芯片将消耗更多水资源等。虽然地球是被水包围着的，但在全球范围内，可用的淡水资源是有限的，而海水淡化的成本实在太高了。而台积电的2nm芯片工厂，1天内就要消耗9.8万水，这样的水资源消耗实在有点巨大。当然，台积电治之所以需要这么多淡水资源，主要是将淡水资源净化成为纯水，利用纯水对芯片进行冲洗，从而带走芯片上的杂质。制程越小的芯片，其对纯度的要求就越高，自然也就需要更多的纯水进行冲洗。但是，台湾省比较缺水，尤其是今年，台湾省缺水程度有点严重，部分地区已经开始采用分时段供水。面对如此严重的淡水资源消耗，这是环保部门没有批准台积电的原因之一。其实，ASML之前就明确表示，越是先进的芯片，其对资源的消耗就越严重，所以ASML才表示，下一代NA EUV光刻机之后，ASML将更注重效率和环保。简单说就是，ASML自身也认识到先进制程芯片生产过程中存在资源消耗过多的情况，所以才决定在2025年之后，研发更为环保和效率的光刻机。对于台积电传来的2nm芯片的新消息，你们怎么看，欢迎留言、讨论~","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162978467,"gmtCreate":1624032956059,"gmtModify":1703827291210,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162978467","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187375098,"gmtCreate":1623744768814,"gmtModify":1704210164355,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187375098","repostId":"2137133210","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2137133210","pubTimestamp":1621819272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137133210?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 09:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"【权益变动】枫叶教育(01317.HK)获主席兼CEO任书良增持200万股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137133210","media":"金融界网站","summary":"【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，枫叶教育(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。","content":"<html><body><div><p>　　【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01317\">枫叶教育</a>(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。</p>\n<div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/24092132805334.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e661d079a394a2795b91495bc103d7","relate_stocks":{"01317":"枫叶教育"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/24092132805334.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137133210","content_text":"【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，枫叶教育(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323162028,"gmtCreate":1615311787164,"gmtModify":1704781069731,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555043703449195","idStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323162028","repostId":"323917301","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":323917301,"gmtCreate":1615298749503,"gmtModify":1704780774635,"author":{"id":"3554463181289571","authorId":"3554463181289571","name":"肖申可比克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2daf9b5ed468526328d3e5b19f8f43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554463181289571","idStr":"3554463181289571"},"themes":[],"title":"宏觀角度對股市的一些思考，還會繼續跌麼？","htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 如果你想長期在股市生存，那麼這篇文值得你花1小時仔細品讀，相信我，不會讓你失望！ &nbsp;&nbsp;3.7號上週日視頻直播跟騎兵連戰友們交流了下最近行情，從宏觀經濟角度出發做了些行情分析，因爲涉及知識比較專業，好多人理解的比較費勁，我把部分內容整理下，儘可能用白話的形式展示給大家。 &nbsp;&nbsp;先看下最近實盤操作和理念： &nbsp;&nbsp;2月24日時候建議整體都降倉位，然後一直強調不要搏日線級別反彈，這次調整是周線或月線級別調整，多看少動。 &nbsp;&nbsp;對看好的標的控制好倉位的前提下可以分批買入，只不過以前補倉資金分10份，這次分20份補這樣，實際最近幾天我也一直在分批買入，在騎兵連也進行了實盤分享。 &nbsp;&nbsp;對於散戶而言，最好的風險管理對衝手段其實就是倉位管理，這是我一直強調的核心理念，像其他衍生品對衝工具，是不太適合散戶的。新人朋友經歷這輪下跌，自己在場內真金白銀實操後，可能纔對我一直強調的核心倉位控制理念感同身受。 &nbsp;&nbsp;這裏不是強調我預測的多麼準，實際我一直把自己定位爲股市裏的“新人”，預測短期走勢是最不靠譜的，一般也不輕易做擇時和輪動，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相結合的策略。 &nbsp;&nbsp;本文主題是基於股市在經濟週期趨勢中客觀反映一些規律的個人看法。 &nbsp;&nbsp;股市預測是玄學問題：唯一不變的是經濟週期和人性博弈。我們去探索分析經濟週期和人性本質，目的並不是爲了去預測市場，而是有助於我們去研判事物客觀發展的一些規律。 &nbsp;&nbsp;最近行情從2月22日開始跌，3.8當天更是單邊無抵抗下跌，這種跌法很容易讓人恐慌，讓人眼前發矇，不知所措。 &nbsp;&nbsp;學過經濟學的都知道，一個完整的經濟週期一般要經歷衰退期、復甦期、過熱期和","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 如果你想長期在股市生存，那麼這篇文值得你花1小時仔細品讀，相信我，不會讓你失望！ &nbsp;&nbsp;3.7號上週日視頻直播跟騎兵連戰友們交流了下最近行情，從宏觀經濟角度出發做了些行情分析，因爲涉及知識比較專業，好多人理解的比較費勁，我把部分內容整理下，儘可能用白話的形式展示給大家。 &nbsp;&nbsp;先看下最近實盤操作和理念： &nbsp;&nbsp;2月24日時候建議整體都降倉位，然後一直強調不要搏日線級別反彈，這次調整是周線或月線級別調整，多看少動。 &nbsp;&nbsp;對看好的標的控制好倉位的前提下可以分批買入，只不過以前補倉資金分10份，這次分20份補這樣，實際最近幾天我也一直在分批買入，在騎兵連也進行了實盤分享。 &nbsp;&nbsp;對於散戶而言，最好的風險管理對衝手段其實就是倉位管理，這是我一直強調的核心理念，像其他衍生品對衝工具，是不太適合散戶的。新人朋友經歷這輪下跌，自己在場內真金白銀實操後，可能纔對我一直強調的核心倉位控制理念感同身受。 &nbsp;&nbsp;這裏不是強調我預測的多麼準，實際我一直把自己定位爲股市裏的“新人”，預測短期走勢是最不靠譜的，一般也不輕易做擇時和輪動，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相結合的策略。 &nbsp;&nbsp;本文主題是基於股市在經濟週期趨勢中客觀反映一些規律的個人看法。 &nbsp;&nbsp;股市預測是玄學問題：唯一不變的是經濟週期和人性博弈。我們去探索分析經濟週期和人性本質，目的並不是爲了去預測市場，而是有助於我們去研判事物客觀發展的一些規律。 &nbsp;&nbsp;最近行情從2月22日開始跌，3.8當天更是單邊無抵抗下跌，這種跌法很容易讓人恐慌，讓人眼前發矇，不知所措。 &nbsp;&nbsp;學過經濟學的都知道，一個完整的經濟週期一般要經歷衰退期、復甦期、過熱期和","text":"如果你想長期在股市生存，那麼這篇文值得你花1小時仔細品讀，相信我，不會讓你失望！ 3.7號上週日視頻直播跟騎兵連戰友們交流了下最近行情，從宏觀經濟角度出發做了些行情分析，因爲涉及知識比較專業，好多人理解的比較費勁，我把部分內容整理下，儘可能用白話的形式展示給大家。 先看下最近實盤操作和理念： 2月24日時候建議整體都降倉位，然後一直強調不要搏日線級別反彈，這次調整是周線或月線級別調整，多看少動。 對看好的標的控制好倉位的前提下可以分批買入，只不過以前補倉資金分10份，這次分20份補這樣，實際最近幾天我也一直在分批買入，在騎兵連也進行了實盤分享。 對於散戶而言，最好的風險管理對衝手段其實就是倉位管理，這是我一直強調的核心理念，像其他衍生品對衝工具，是不太適合散戶的。新人朋友經歷這輪下跌，自己在場內真金白銀實操後，可能纔對我一直強調的核心倉位控制理念感同身受。 這裏不是強調我預測的多麼準，實際我一直把自己定位爲股市裏的“新人”，預測短期走勢是最不靠譜的，一般也不輕易做擇時和輪動，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相結合的策略。 本文主題是基於股市在經濟週期趨勢中客觀反映一些規律的個人看法。 股市預測是玄學問題：唯一不變的是經濟週期和人性博弈。我們去探索分析經濟週期和人性本質，目的並不是爲了去預測市場，而是有助於我們去研判事物客觀發展的一些規律。 最近行情從2月22日開始跌，3.8當天更是單邊無抵抗下跌，這種跌法很容易讓人恐慌，讓人眼前發矇，不知所措。 學過經濟學的都知道，一個完整的經濟週期一般要經歷衰退期、復甦期、過熱期和","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697e0144c360fe0acdd0cd2a2c35924f","width":"688","height":"459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323917301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":831690773,"gmtCreate":1629307626992,"gmtModify":1676529999344,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831690773","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162723925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>\n <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley noted that</p>\n<blockquote>\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart 1</p>\n<p>This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p>\n<p>The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p>\n<p><b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p>\n<p>The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p>\n<p>Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p>\n<p>Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 3</p>\n<p>Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p>\n<p><b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p>\n<p>Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p>\n<p>Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p>\n<p>Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p>\n<p><b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p>\n<p>Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p>\n<p>This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p>\n<p>TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p>\n<p>However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p>\n<p>Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p>\n<p>Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p>\n<p>Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 6</p>\n<p>Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 7</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>\n <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>\n <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162978467,"gmtCreate":1624032956059,"gmtModify":1703827291210,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162978467","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192473918","pubTimestamp":1624029343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192473918?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192473918","media":"investorplace","summary":"Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Feder","content":"<p><b>Palantir Technologies</b>(NYSE:<b><u>PLTR</u></b>) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).</p>\n<p>The goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” objectives for aviation safety.”This will have Palantir Technologies providing the agency with a data analyzing tool to help with that effort.</p>\n<p>According to a news release, this will have Palantir Technologies monitoring various safety aspects for the FAA. That includes reintegrating the 737 MAX fleet back into service after it was suspended due to fatal crashes.</p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies’ deal with the FAA is set to last for one year. However, there’s also the option to extend it by up to two years. The agreement has a maximum value of $18.4 million.</p>\n<p>Akash Jain, president of Palantir USG, said the following about the agreement with the FAA that should have PLTR stock gaining today.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We are proud to be partnering with the Federal Aviation Administration to support their critical safety mission.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The fact that PLTR stock is actually moving lower today despite this news is strange. The company’s shares did start off rising in early morning trading, but quickly fell back down to yesterday’s close before dipping even lower.</p>\n<p>It’s also worth noting that trading volume isn’t taking off on news of the FAA deal, either. As of this writing, more than 20 million shares of PLTR stock had changed hands. That’s still well below the company’s daily average trading volume of 57.8 million shares.</p>\n<p>PLTR stock was down 1.1% as of Friday morning.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPLTR Stock: The Palantir-FAA Deal News Should Have Investors Smiling Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).\nThe goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/pltr-stock-the-palantir-faa-deal-news-should-have-investors-smiling-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192473918","content_text":"Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock is on the move Friday following news of a deal with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).\nThe goal of this deal is toassist the FAA in modernizing its ” objectives for aviation safety.”This will have Palantir Technologies providing the agency with a data analyzing tool to help with that effort.\nAccording to a news release, this will have Palantir Technologies monitoring various safety aspects for the FAA. That includes reintegrating the 737 MAX fleet back into service after it was suspended due to fatal crashes.\nPalantir Technologies’ deal with the FAA is set to last for one year. However, there’s also the option to extend it by up to two years. The agreement has a maximum value of $18.4 million.\nAkash Jain, president of Palantir USG, said the following about the agreement with the FAA that should have PLTR stock gaining today.\n\n “We are proud to be partnering with the Federal Aviation Administration to support their critical safety mission.”\n\nThe fact that PLTR stock is actually moving lower today despite this news is strange. The company’s shares did start off rising in early morning trading, but quickly fell back down to yesterday’s close before dipping even lower.\nIt’s also worth noting that trading volume isn’t taking off on news of the FAA deal, either. As of this writing, more than 20 million shares of PLTR stock had changed hands. That’s still well below the company’s daily average trading volume of 57.8 million shares.\nPLTR stock was down 1.1% as of Friday morning.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182803601662048,"gmtCreate":1685638860931,"gmtModify":1685638864583,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182803601662048","repostId":"182309605408768","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":182309605408768,"gmtCreate":1685536695744,"gmtModify":1685536783702,"author":{"id":"3527667646990931","authorId":"3527667646990931","name":"ETF Tracker","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/087e050021c7db2ae39b1cb7515b694d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667646990931","authorIdStr":"3527667646990931"},"themes":[],"title":"Why is ETF the Best Choice For Newcomers?","htmlText":"For many newcomers to the stock market, the most difficult thing is not stock selection or market timing, but having a correct understanding of stock market risks. However, many people are not aware of this.How to start investing in stock markets? - For beginnersWhat factors determine whether a newcomer can succeed in investing? You may think it's about making money, but the real factor that determines your success or failure is the risk in the stock market.&nbsp;Investing in ETFs is the best way to help novice investors understand investments and control risks.What are the risks in stock market?The risks in the stock market come from two sources: individual stock risk and systematic risk.Individual stock risk refers to the specific risks associated with a particular stock, such as financi","listText":"For many newcomers to the stock market, the most difficult thing is not stock selection or market timing, but having a correct understanding of stock market risks. However, many people are not aware of this.How to start investing in stock markets? - For beginnersWhat factors determine whether a newcomer can succeed in investing? You may think it's about making money, but the real factor that determines your success or failure is the risk in the stock market.&nbsp;Investing in ETFs is the best way to help novice investors understand investments and control risks.What are the risks in stock market?The risks in the stock market come from two sources: individual stock risk and systematic risk.Individual stock risk refers to the specific risks associated with a particular stock, such as financi","text":"For many newcomers to the stock market, the most difficult thing is not stock selection or market timing, but having a correct understanding of stock market risks. However, many people are not aware of this.How to start investing in stock markets? - For beginnersWhat factors determine whether a newcomer can succeed in investing? You may think it's about making money, but the real factor that determines your success or failure is the risk in the stock market. Investing in ETFs is the best way to help novice investors understand investments and control risks.What are the risks in stock market?The risks in the stock market come from two sources: individual stock risk and systematic risk.Individual stock risk refers to the specific risks associated with a particular stock, such as financi","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e1f8ca0df67afdad3c98c1f5bb8cf0e","width":"760","height":"428"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182309605408768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182802753519744,"gmtCreate":1685638819018,"gmtModify":1685638822950,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182802753519744","repostId":"182317744746616","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":182317744746616,"gmtCreate":1685538552567,"gmtModify":1685885361415,"author":{"id":"3527667620927015","authorId":"3527667620927015","name":"Tiger_Earnings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849fb1fb43d93db3974fd09c5f65ff1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667620927015","authorIdStr":"3527667620927015"},"themes":[],"title":"All-Time-High Consumer Discretionary Stocks in Q1: PEP, CMG, CELH, ELF","htmlText":"As the earnings season is coming to an end, we’d like to review this earnings season. Many stocks rose to an all-time-high or a new high in Q1.According to Factset, consumer discretionary sector posted the highest earnings growth. Therefore, this article will list the cosumer discretionary stocks that reach a new high in Q1.Consumer Discretionary Stocks That Reached A New High1.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PEP\">$Pepsi(PEP)$</a> rose to an all-time-high of $196.88 on 15th&nbsp;May.&nbsp;It posted earnings on 26th April, which boosted its outlook for the year and beat revenue expectations.&nbsp;Adjusted EPS: $1.50 vs. $1.39Revenue: $17.85 bln vs. $17.22 bln&nbsp;2. Burrito chain&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CMG\">$Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$</a> rose to an all-time-high of $213","listText":"As the earnings season is coming to an end, we’d like to review this earnings season. Many stocks rose to an all-time-high or a new high in Q1.According to Factset, consumer discretionary sector posted the highest earnings growth. Therefore, this article will list the cosumer discretionary stocks that reach a new high in Q1.Consumer Discretionary Stocks That Reached A New High1.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PEP\">$Pepsi(PEP)$</a> rose to an all-time-high of $196.88 on 15th&nbsp;May.&nbsp;It posted earnings on 26th April, which boosted its outlook for the year and beat revenue expectations.&nbsp;Adjusted EPS: $1.50 vs. $1.39Revenue: $17.85 bln vs. $17.22 bln&nbsp;2. Burrito chain&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CMG\">$Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$</a> rose to an all-time-high of $213","text":"As the earnings season is coming to an end, we’d like to review this earnings season. Many stocks rose to an all-time-high or a new high in Q1.According to Factset, consumer discretionary sector posted the highest earnings growth. Therefore, this article will list the cosumer discretionary stocks that reach a new high in Q1.Consumer Discretionary Stocks That Reached A New High1.$Pepsi(PEP)$ rose to an all-time-high of $196.88 on 15th May. It posted earnings on 26th April, which boosted its outlook for the year and beat revenue expectations. Adjusted EPS: $1.50 vs. $1.39Revenue: $17.85 bln vs. $17.22 bln 2. Burrito chain $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ rose to an all-time-high of $213","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f4d1074a7700118da06e1e6be3ec41c1","width":"923","height":"500"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dc9a40c8f1a2758520df48d345259c0","width":"1080","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85efe698fbf8ba542e12acaeb65cccc9","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182317744746616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970406432,"gmtCreate":1684772672527,"gmtModify":1684772676518,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970406432","repostId":"9970538621","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970538621,"gmtCreate":1684639043463,"gmtModify":1703658114178,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"Jerome Powell 19 May 2023 Talk On Interest Rate & US Mkt Direction?","htmlText":"The speech by Mr Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, on Friday, 19 May 2023, was closely watched by investors and analysts who were looking for clues on the future direction of US monetary policy. Below are 5 key points that I derived after watching the discussion sessions on Youtube: On whether US interest rates will need to rise further, Mr Powell said that it is still unclear and the Fed team will have to monitor official data - month by month to determine. Recent bank-run debacle and the stresses it had brought to the banking sector could mean that “our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals”, so said the Fed chairman. Although inflation is far above the objective of 2% and still poses significant hardships, Fed is strongly committed to","listText":"The speech by Mr Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, on Friday, 19 May 2023, was closely watched by investors and analysts who were looking for clues on the future direction of US monetary policy. Below are 5 key points that I derived after watching the discussion sessions on Youtube: On whether US interest rates will need to rise further, Mr Powell said that it is still unclear and the Fed team will have to monitor official data - month by month to determine. Recent bank-run debacle and the stresses it had brought to the banking sector could mean that “our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals”, so said the Fed chairman. Although inflation is far above the objective of 2% and still poses significant hardships, Fed is strongly committed to","text":"The speech by Mr Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, on Friday, 19 May 2023, was closely watched by investors and analysts who were looking for clues on the future direction of US monetary policy. Below are 5 key points that I derived after watching the discussion sessions on Youtube: On whether US interest rates will need to rise further, Mr Powell said that it is still unclear and the Fed team will have to monitor official data - month by month to determine. Recent bank-run debacle and the stresses it had brought to the banking sector could mean that “our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals”, so said the Fed chairman. Although inflation is far above the objective of 2% and still poses significant hardships, Fed is strongly committed to","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/06cdb16f09aa10a96a8464536d728b6b","width":"1104","height":"334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b59cecff4d74363faefceed07bd5e04b","width":"1169","height":"436"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c733f75ffad60b84143217f1fa7f0afc","width":"1081","height":"332"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970538621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970406581,"gmtCreate":1684772653643,"gmtModify":1684772657185,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970406581","repostId":"9970511108","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970511108,"gmtCreate":1684664897305,"gmtModify":1684664905084,"author":{"id":"3576339097425722","authorId":"3576339097425722","name":"Asphen","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/55ff1b64b2787933c17d863ecae83f09","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576339097425722","authorIdStr":"3576339097425722"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==&gt; This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!","listText":"TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==&gt; This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!","text":"TSLA is following all the price action indicators very well; Target 190! - Have been performing well since the bounce off the neckline support of 163 - Clearly in a near term buy controlled buy channel but in a larger controlled sell channel - Confluence remains 190 - 19 Apr gap down bear flag has since retraced above 177 which is Fib 78.6 (tends to mean likely a full retrace to 190 My Watch/Plays - Will MA5 cross above MA50 (blue)? - Will price action stay in the buy channel? - If it comes back down to re-test 163 and fails below? ==> This is a bearish one and 146 bound - Look to add more long puts should price action test and stay above MA5 and MA20 - It is all about 190! Break above and we will have some squeeze from 195 to 209 Good luck, all!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11e390cb51f9ac70b9fa17da206640b1","width":"1280","height":"660"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970511108","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970406204,"gmtCreate":1684772638409,"gmtModify":1684772642181,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970406204","repostId":"9970532463","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970532463,"gmtCreate":1684649944053,"gmtModify":1684650038210,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"themes":[],"title":"An in depth analysis of Alibaba's latest earnings dated 18May2023","htmlText":"I have been investing in Aliaba (BABA) for the last few years and thus, I could write with investor bias. BABA’s recent performance &lt;Provided by Google Bard AI&gt; Alibaba's revenue, net income, free cash flow, retained earnings, assets, and liabilities have all grown significantly over the past few years. In 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 10% to $247.8 billion. Net income grew by 2% to $35.9 billion. Free cash flow grew by 16% to $7.5 billion. Retained earnings grew by 18% to $132.3 billion. Assets grew by 14% to $844.5 billion. Liabilities grew by 13% to $371.3 billion. This growth is due to a number of factors, including the continued expansion of Alibaba's e-commerce business, the growth of its cloud computing business, and the expansion of its international business. Alibaba's gr","listText":"I have been investing in Aliaba (BABA) for the last few years and thus, I could write with investor bias. BABA’s recent performance &lt;Provided by Google Bard AI&gt; Alibaba's revenue, net income, free cash flow, retained earnings, assets, and liabilities have all grown significantly over the past few years. In 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 10% to $247.8 billion. Net income grew by 2% to $35.9 billion. Free cash flow grew by 16% to $7.5 billion. Retained earnings grew by 18% to $132.3 billion. Assets grew by 14% to $844.5 billion. Liabilities grew by 13% to $371.3 billion. This growth is due to a number of factors, including the continued expansion of Alibaba's e-commerce business, the growth of its cloud computing business, and the expansion of its international business. Alibaba's gr","text":"I have been investing in Aliaba (BABA) for the last few years and thus, I could write with investor bias. BABA’s recent performance <Provided by Google Bard AI> Alibaba's revenue, net income, free cash flow, retained earnings, assets, and liabilities have all grown significantly over the past few years. In 2022, Alibaba's revenue grew by 10% to $247.8 billion. Net income grew by 2% to $35.9 billion. Free cash flow grew by 16% to $7.5 billion. Retained earnings grew by 18% to $132.3 billion. Assets grew by 14% to $844.5 billion. Liabilities grew by 13% to $371.3 billion. This growth is due to a number of factors, including the continued expansion of Alibaba's e-commerce business, the growth of its cloud computing business, and the expansion of its international business. Alibaba's gr","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22e6f3c269d676390d70db7de9234485","width":"1174","height":"1030"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6fe2390a37bc0e7bdbb1fa326b152f24","width":"944","height":"434"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/adf8c6acc8c7798eb4c08edfdc4d7467","width":"1167","height":"1112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970532463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815216601,"gmtCreate":1630680220203,"gmtModify":1676530375385,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815216601","repostId":"2164687796","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2164687796","pubTimestamp":1630678845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2164687796?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"业绩向上 vs 股价向下：中芯国际（00981）们是“该杀”还是“错杀”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164687796","media":"智通财经网","summary":"台积电和联电股价在短暂回调后重回高位，而中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价在整一个月内都呈现下跌的态势。","content":"<html><body><div> <p>虽然同属晶圆制造板块，但不同晶圆制造公司的股价表现迥然不同。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">联电</a>股价在短暂回调后重回高位，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>的股价在整一个月内都呈现下跌的态势。</p><p>8月中上旬是整个行业性下跌的表现，而大陆晶圆制造双雄在8月中下旬的继续下跌也受到国内整个半导体板块下行的拖累影响。</p><center><img height=\"365\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f7cad4fc770392e049240e7b67d536c4.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：Wind、海豚投研整理</p><p>8月中下旬国内半导体板块下行，主要受“代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)”以及“设备降价(半导体设备公司承压)”等传言影响。</p><p>1)代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)：挤压了设计公司的盈利能力，同时影响了设计公司的产能安全。台积电、联电、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>等厂商都将有2位数的价格提升;</p><p>2)设备降价(半导体设备公司承压)：Digitimes报道，台积电设备和材料供应商价格于2022年至少降低15%。海外设备厂的市场降价预期影响国内半导体的替代预期。</p><p>对于上述的一系列事件，其实反而更加凸显晶圆制造环节的产业链地位。从产业链环节看，晶圆制造的上游是设备材料，下游是设计应用，代工厂本身就处于产业链的核心地位。</p><p>1)上游设备厂本身就有定期降价的策略，来维系晶圆制造厂长期稳定订单的需求;</p><p>2)下游的设计应用公司，由于Fab的模式，产能多少完全掌握在晶圆制造厂手中。在供不应求的情况下，设计应用公司要承受晶圆制造厂的压力。</p><p>上游设备端的降价，利好晶圆制造厂的产能扩充;对下游代工价格的提升，能有效提升晶圆制造厂的盈利能力。半导体高景气的供需差来自于晶圆制造环节!</p><center><img height=\"247\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/af8cc262ffb8b2776c551b156b943f2e.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：海豚投研</p><p>虽然大陆晶圆制造厂近期股价表现低迷，但投资仍要立足于财报来观察行业基本面情况。在8月社零数据不及预期的情况下，晶圆制造行业是市场中少有的持续成长方向。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>2021年二季度营收实现13.44亿美元，同比增速更是达到43.2%，此外台积电、联电和华虹的营收增速也同样表现强劲。</p><center><img height=\"150\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00b9b38ac43caa5bd70b5d0314215548.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>在行业公司陆续披露2021年二季度财报后，海豚君来梳理晶圆制造行业的景气度情况：</p><p>1、晶圆制造行业的收入增长来自于量价齐升。2019年以来各晶圆制造厂出货量逐季上升，本季<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>的出货量更是有2位数的环比提升。供需端的紧张推升了出货价的上涨，中芯国际和联电的出货提升最为明显;</p><p>2、产能利用率过百，扩产仍满载。旺盛需求推动扩产的进程，晶圆制造厂在本季都实现了产能的扩充。即使在产能扩充情况下，三大晶圆制造厂的产能利用率仍然过百，显现超高景气度;</p><p>3、毛利率受价格拉动，短期和长期都向上。台积电毛利率下行有其自身产品结构的特殊性，其余三家晶圆制造厂毛利率上行更能体现行业性。从成本结构分析，本季行业毛利率上行主要由产品价格的拉动带来。</p><p>短期维度行业高景气提升盈利水平，长期维度折旧摊销的减少带动长期盈利水平上移;</p><p>4、国产替代进行时，凸显消费电子需求和12寸晶圆的稀缺性。国产替代的需求旺盛，本季各大晶圆厂中国/亚太区的收入占比都有提升，尤其是大陆晶圆制造厂的中国区收入甚至都超过了60%。</p><p>5G和IoT推动消费电子需求，由于相关制程要求不太高，国产替代下大陆晶圆厂相关业务增长尤其明显。12寸晶圆业务的高增长，更是体现了大陆12寸晶圆的稀缺性。</p><p>整体上，本季晶圆制造行业的各方面表现都呈现出高景气度，也验证了海豚君此前《透过联电看中芯国际：晶圆制造yyds!》的判断。晶圆制造行业在短期维度层面受益于行业景气上升趋势，收入规模和盈利能力都呈现向上增长。</p><p>长期维度层面，随着折旧摊销的减少，行业盈利能力水平有望实现整体上移。在国产替代的进程中，大陆晶圆制造厂在产能利用率和成长的持续性上将尤为受益。大陆晶圆制造双雄着力提升12寸晶圆占比，同样凸显出大陆12寸晶圆的稀缺性和重要性。</p><p>大陆晶圆制造公司股价短期低迷，有受到国内半导体板块的拖累影响。从产业链分析各传言的影响，反而印证了晶圆制造在半导体产业链中的核心地位。上游降价和代工涨价，中游晶圆制造厂都将受益。抽丝剥茧，重新审视被错杀的大陆晶圆制造厂!</p><p>海豚君和大家一起来细看行业财报情况：</p><p>一  晶圆制造行业量价齐升，持续高景气</p><p><strong>1.1 收入增长背后的量价关系：量价齐升</strong></p><p>量的维度：晶圆制造行业的出货量在2019年一季度出现短暂下滑后，季度出货量呈现逐季提升的情况。</p><p>2021年二季度四大主要晶圆制造厂的出货量进一步提升，其中中芯国际2021年一季度的季度出货量达到1745千片，同比增长21.6%，环比增速也达到12%。</p><center><img height=\"150\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/86493a92252f4b9e6213add4b93c067a.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><center><img height=\"285\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f65e3922b912a2ca6af1335ca4326128.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>价的维度：不同公司呈现不同的价格变化特征，主要由于产品的市场化情况不同。台积电的晶圆历史出货均价呈现逐年上升，主要由于台积电技术领先，市场化定价较小。先进工艺产能的释放，高端产品占比提升带动出货均价上移。联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家的晶圆历史出货均价相对平稳，主要是由于产品市场化程度高，出货均价受市场波动较大。</p><p>从观察晶圆制造行业的角度，联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的价格变动更能体现行业性。其中中芯国际2021年二季度出货均价770美元/片，同比增长17.8%，环比增长8.8%。三家制造厂的季度环比增速继续提升，联电环比增长7.6%(QoQ+7.2pct)/中芯国际环比增长8.8%(QoQ  +6.6pct)/华虹半导体环比增长4%(QoQ +1.8pct)。</p><p>三大晶圆制造厂的季度出货均价提升反应晶圆制造行业的高景气，其中联电和中芯国际在出货均价方面上涨更为明显。</p><center><img height=\"125\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/4250517f0d72e5c9cfb64f34300617db.jpg\" width=\"553\"/></center><center><img height=\"236\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6547abb2c1a3881b0d3be92f58835675.jpg\" width=\"553\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>1.2 产能利用率情况：扩产进行时依然满载</strong></p><p>2021年二季度联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家的产能利用率均达到了100%及以上，饱满的产能利用率折射着晶圆制造的高景气。其中中芯国际的产能利用率近年来首次站上100%，联电和华虹半导体的产能利用率在2021年一季度满载后，季度连续呈现高负荷运转，华虹半导体的产能利用率更是创历史新高达到109.5%。</p><p>高产能利用率背后，更暗含着扩产下依然满载。2021年二季度联电和华虹半导体的产能分别环比增长3.9%和3.8%，而中芯国际的产能更是环比增长了10.1%。</p><p>中芯国际在取得两位数的产能扩充同时，产能利用率从98.7%进一步提升到100.4%，进一步体现了产能端的紧张情况。</p><center><img height=\"304\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/74343377d225f98e689a4729a3b40d86.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>1.3 毛利率：景气度推动盈利能力提升</strong></p><p>台积电的毛利率仍领先于整个行业，但从毛利率的变化趋势上不同于行业内其他公司，主要是由于台积电的产品特殊性不够具有行业代表性。2021年二季度台积电毛利率50%，同比和环比都有所下滑，主要由于台积电出货均价未有明显提高，而成本端有所上升。</p><p>联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家毛利率均有环比提升，体现晶圆制造行业性盈利能力提升的现象。其中中芯国际季度毛利率提升最为明显，2021年二季度中芯国际毛利率30.1%，环比提升7.5%。联电和华虹半导体季度毛利率为31.2%和24.8%，也分别环比提升4.7%和1.1%。三家晶圆制造厂毛利率的提升，主要受益于行业景气度上升，产品出货价格上涨所致。</p><center><img height=\"150\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1a4b0e61c7230f285c071df887f5e9e1.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>二  抽丝剥茧晶圆制造行业深处的数据关系</p><p><strong>2.1 毛利率分析视角-成本结构角度：产品价格上涨主导毛利率上升</strong></p><p>从成本结构角度具体分析，行业公司毛利率变化的主要驱动因素。台积电的毛利率下滑，主要在于二季度台积电的单片出货均价从1709美元到1712美元的提升并不明显，而单片成本却从814美元大幅提升到856美元，进而挤压了公司的毛利率水平。</p><p>联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的毛利率提升主要是出货价格上涨带来，其中二季度联电和中芯国际单片出货均价环比分别提升了53美元和62美元。虽然产能扩充和材料上涨等方面会带来成本的上升，但由于产品价格上涨完全承担了成本项的增加，三家公司毛利率都表现上升的情况。</p><center><img height=\"243\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/46575bcdff388fa2efaa199f9b45e527.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>2.2 换个视角再看毛利率：剔除折旧摊销后，长期毛利率上行</strong></p><p>财报中的表观毛利率，由于其中包含折旧摊销等影响，未能很好地表明公司的经营性情况。换个视角观察毛利率(剔除折旧摊销)的指标，更体现公司经营层面的盈利能力。晶圆制造行业具有制造业的特性，在供不应求的情况提升资本开支进行扩产，从而带来折旧和摊销的增加。</p><p>虽然中芯国际的报表毛利率并不突出，但是在剔除掉折旧摊销影响后，中芯国际2021年二季度毛利率达到55.9%，明显领先于联电和华虹半导体。</p><p>报表毛利率受折旧摊销影响，主要由于公司的持续扩产，但经营层面的盈利能力随着行业景气度上升而提升明显。从长期维度看，资本开支的折旧摊销随着时间逐渐减少，行业盈利能力有望向上抬升。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210903/1630678990674753.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1630678990674753.png\"/></p><p><strong>2.3 晶圆制造地区收入：呈现国产替代进行时</strong></p><p>在联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的收入中，中国或亚太区的收入占比都有60%以上，表现晶圆制造有着强烈的国产需求。在台积电收入占比较小，主要由于台积电以先进制程工艺为主，先进工艺全球主要客户来自于海外厂商。</p><p>从二季度各公司的收入占比看，四家厂商的中国区收入都有提升，尤其是中芯国际提升最为明显(+7pct)，中国区的收入占比达到63%。即使是以先进制程工艺为主的台积电，本季中国区的收入占比回到11%。在经历大陆大客户事件后中国区占比重新回升，表现中国晶圆制造需求的旺盛。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210903/1630679013242252.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1630679013242252.png\"/></p><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>2.4 下游应用表现：5G&amp;IoT带动消费电子需求，国产替代带来业务高增速</strong></p><p>台积电本季度的增长动力主要来自于高性能计算领域，环比增长14.6%远高于公司增速，主要是由于公司先进制程工艺的出货提升。汽车和数字消费电子领域在台积电的占比不高，虽然占比没提升但仍保持正向增长。</p><p>台积电由于技术的领先，分应用的产品增长不太具有行业性特征，台积电优先发展先进工艺的产能。国际客户优先选择台积电和联电产能以保证供应链安全，在台积电优先发展优先产能情况下，联电的季度增长主要来自于资讯电脑和通讯类业务的增长。</p><p>中芯国际和华虹半导体的季度增长主要来自于消费电子及电子消费品等带动。5G和IoT推动消费类电子的需求增长，由于消费类电子产品相关芯片制程要求不太高，在国产替代的推动下业务高增长。二季度中芯国际的消费电子业务环比增长50.7%，国内巨大的需求带动消费电子业务占比提升至25%。</p><p>中芯国际其他业务中主要是包含汽车和工业等应用，该业务环比增长24.1%，强劲增长主要来自于新能源车等应用市场的增量拉动。华虹半导体的电子消费品同样受益于相关应用国产替代的推动，在各应用中增长最快。</p><center><img height=\"200\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8528e0c0e44ccd30f084fbba9d40c4af.jpg\" width=\"661\"/></center><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p><strong>2.5 各晶圆尺寸市场：大陆12寸晶圆高增长，国产替代稀缺性</strong></p><p>台积电和联电的季度收入增长没有明显的结构性变化，在8寸和12寸上的增速都接近于公司整体增速，主要是由于两厂商的产能提升较小，主要受出货价影响。</p><p>中芯国际和华虹半导体的季度收入有结构性的变化。中芯国际整体环比增速达21%，而12寸晶圆的环比增速更是达到27.3%，在价格因素外还主要因为华为事件后28nm及以下节点的产能重新填补。华虹半导体12寸晶圆收入环比增长有54%，主要是由于华虹对12寸产能的重视，产能也陆续释放。从中芯国际和华虹半导体提升12寸晶圆收入占比的角度，国内晶圆厂对12寸晶圆的重视以及国内对12寸晶圆的迫切需求。在国产替代层面上，12寸晶圆更凸显其稀缺性。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210903/1630679056964152.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1630679056964152.png\"/></p><p>来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p><p>三  三季度及下半年展望</p><p><strong>1、收入层面：量价齐升延续</strong></p><p>二季度晶圆制造行业的收入增长来自于量价齐升，三季度量价齐升逻辑有望延续。</p><p>1)量的逻辑：主要晶圆厂商仍维持扩张节奏。中芯国际维持原有扩产目标，“北京厂12英寸增加1万片，在12月出货;深圳和天津厂8英寸扩产增加4.5万片，会在四季度实现”;华虹半导体扩产计划仍进行，“无锡  12 寸晶圆厂月产能，预计至年底增加1.7  万片”;联电三季度指引出货环比增长1-2%，并进一步上调扩产目标，“P5产能增加0.6万片月产能，今年底前到位;P6从原计划的2.75万片上提到3.25万片，预计2023年2季投产”。</p><p>2)价的逻辑：晶圆制造，涨价之声此起彼伏。联电，三季度指引出货价环比上涨6%，并传出11月将进一步涨价;台积电，台湾媒体报道2022年一季度起对成熟制程涨15-20%，先进制程涨10%;其他晶圆厂，韩国媒体The  Elec九月初报导，三星和Key Foundry也决定涨价，调涨幅度在15%到20%间，4到5个月后生效。</p><p><strong>2、盈利能力层面：价格上涨依然提升毛利率</strong></p><p>扒开二季度财报，行业盈利能力上行主要受益于价格的上涨。展望三季度，价格上涨依然有望带动盈利能力向上。</p><p>毛利率逻辑：在折旧摊销相对稳定的情况下，价格成为影响毛利率主要因素。三季度晶圆代工价格的上涨有望进一步推动毛利率上行。</p><p>中芯国际，三季度毛利率指引32~34%，在二季度30.1%的毛利率基础上进一步提升;华虹半导体，三季度毛利率预计在25-27%，在二季度毛利率24.2%上再提升;联电共同总经理王石预期，三季度毛利率有望攀高至35%水平，二季度毛利率为31.2%。</p><p><strong>3、板块展望：行业景气度持续，盈利能力进一步向好</strong></p><p>行业景气度的持续带来台积电和联电的股价重回增长，联电再次创历史新高。而彼时中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价表现相对低迷，被整个国内半导体板块拖累，存在错杀的可能。</p><p>上游半导体设备端存在设备价格下降的市场担心，而下游设计应用端是承受代工涨价和产能不确定的压力。反观中游晶圆制造端是整个产业链的核心环节，上游降价和对下游的涨价都将让中游环节的晶圆制造受益。</p><p>从市场恐慌中，发现机会。前段时间<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>对存储的悲观报告带来了市场的恐慌，而其中提到“SMIC(中芯国际) could support  the current capacity to GigaDevice, but there could be a reason for it to hold  back incremental supply for NOR，given the better profit and stronger demand  (mainly from China) for other logic products”。</p><p>这也验证了三季度中芯国际产能饱满，可自行挑选客户，并佐证了公司指引中进一步向上的毛利率。半导体的供需差核心在于晶圆制造端，在景气周期上制造厂有绝对的议价权和产能调配权。</p><p><strong>本文来源于“海豚投研”微信公众号；智通财经编辑：文文。</strong></p> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>业绩向上 vs 股价向下：中芯国际（00981）们是“该杀”还是“错杀”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n业绩向上 vs 股价向下：中芯国际（00981）们是“该杀”还是“错杀”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 22:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/554383.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>虽然同属晶圆制造板块，但不同晶圆制造公司的股价表现迥然不同。台积电和联电股价在短暂回调后重回高位，而中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价在整一个月内都呈现下跌的态势。8月中上旬是整个行业性下跌的表现，而大陆晶圆制造双雄在8月中下旬的继续下跌也受到国内整个半导体板块下行的拖累影响。来源：Wind、海豚投研整理8月中下旬国内半导体板块下行，主要受“代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)”以及“设备降价(半导体设备公司承压...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/554383.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210903/20210903222531_81438.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","SMI":"VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni ETF","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/554383.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2164687796","content_text":"虽然同属晶圆制造板块，但不同晶圆制造公司的股价表现迥然不同。台积电和联电股价在短暂回调后重回高位，而中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价在整一个月内都呈现下跌的态势。8月中上旬是整个行业性下跌的表现，而大陆晶圆制造双雄在8月中下旬的继续下跌也受到国内整个半导体板块下行的拖累影响。来源：Wind、海豚投研整理8月中下旬国内半导体板块下行，主要受“代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)”以及“设备降价(半导体设备公司承压)”等传言影响。1)代工价格上涨(设计公司承压)：挤压了设计公司的盈利能力，同时影响了设计公司的产能安全。台积电、联电、三星等厂商都将有2位数的价格提升;2)设备降价(半导体设备公司承压)：Digitimes报道，台积电设备和材料供应商价格于2022年至少降低15%。海外设备厂的市场降价预期影响国内半导体的替代预期。对于上述的一系列事件，其实反而更加凸显晶圆制造环节的产业链地位。从产业链环节看，晶圆制造的上游是设备材料，下游是设计应用，代工厂本身就处于产业链的核心地位。1)上游设备厂本身就有定期降价的策略，来维系晶圆制造厂长期稳定订单的需求;2)下游的设计应用公司，由于Fab的模式，产能多少完全掌握在晶圆制造厂手中。在供不应求的情况下，设计应用公司要承受晶圆制造厂的压力。上游设备端的降价，利好晶圆制造厂的产能扩充;对下游代工价格的提升，能有效提升晶圆制造厂的盈利能力。半导体高景气的供需差来自于晶圆制造环节!来源：海豚投研虽然大陆晶圆制造厂近期股价表现低迷，但投资仍要立足于财报来观察行业基本面情况。在8月社零数据不及预期的情况下，晶圆制造行业是市场中少有的持续成长方向。中芯国际2021年二季度营收实现13.44亿美元，同比增速更是达到43.2%，此外台积电、联电和华虹的营收增速也同样表现强劲。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理在行业公司陆续披露2021年二季度财报后，海豚君来梳理晶圆制造行业的景气度情况：1、晶圆制造行业的收入增长来自于量价齐升。2019年以来各晶圆制造厂出货量逐季上升，本季中芯国际的出货量更是有2位数的环比提升。供需端的紧张推升了出货价的上涨，中芯国际和联电的出货提升最为明显;2、产能利用率过百，扩产仍满载。旺盛需求推动扩产的进程，晶圆制造厂在本季都实现了产能的扩充。即使在产能扩充情况下，三大晶圆制造厂的产能利用率仍然过百，显现超高景气度;3、毛利率受价格拉动，短期和长期都向上。台积电毛利率下行有其自身产品结构的特殊性，其余三家晶圆制造厂毛利率上行更能体现行业性。从成本结构分析，本季行业毛利率上行主要由产品价格的拉动带来。短期维度行业高景气提升盈利水平，长期维度折旧摊销的减少带动长期盈利水平上移;4、国产替代进行时，凸显消费电子需求和12寸晶圆的稀缺性。国产替代的需求旺盛，本季各大晶圆厂中国/亚太区的收入占比都有提升，尤其是大陆晶圆制造厂的中国区收入甚至都超过了60%。5G和IoT推动消费电子需求，由于相关制程要求不太高，国产替代下大陆晶圆厂相关业务增长尤其明显。12寸晶圆业务的高增长，更是体现了大陆12寸晶圆的稀缺性。整体上，本季晶圆制造行业的各方面表现都呈现出高景气度，也验证了海豚君此前《透过联电看中芯国际：晶圆制造yyds!》的判断。晶圆制造行业在短期维度层面受益于行业景气上升趋势，收入规模和盈利能力都呈现向上增长。长期维度层面，随着折旧摊销的减少，行业盈利能力水平有望实现整体上移。在国产替代的进程中，大陆晶圆制造厂在产能利用率和成长的持续性上将尤为受益。大陆晶圆制造双雄着力提升12寸晶圆占比，同样凸显出大陆12寸晶圆的稀缺性和重要性。大陆晶圆制造公司股价短期低迷，有受到国内半导体板块的拖累影响。从产业链分析各传言的影响，反而印证了晶圆制造在半导体产业链中的核心地位。上游降价和代工涨价，中游晶圆制造厂都将受益。抽丝剥茧，重新审视被错杀的大陆晶圆制造厂!海豚君和大家一起来细看行业财报情况：一  晶圆制造行业量价齐升，持续高景气1.1 收入增长背后的量价关系：量价齐升量的维度：晶圆制造行业的出货量在2019年一季度出现短暂下滑后，季度出货量呈现逐季提升的情况。2021年二季度四大主要晶圆制造厂的出货量进一步提升，其中中芯国际2021年一季度的季度出货量达到1745千片，同比增长21.6%，环比增速也达到12%。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理价的维度：不同公司呈现不同的价格变化特征，主要由于产品的市场化情况不同。台积电的晶圆历史出货均价呈现逐年上升，主要由于台积电技术领先，市场化定价较小。先进工艺产能的释放，高端产品占比提升带动出货均价上移。联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家的晶圆历史出货均价相对平稳，主要是由于产品市场化程度高，出货均价受市场波动较大。从观察晶圆制造行业的角度，联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的价格变动更能体现行业性。其中中芯国际2021年二季度出货均价770美元/片，同比增长17.8%，环比增长8.8%。三家制造厂的季度环比增速继续提升，联电环比增长7.6%(QoQ+7.2pct)/中芯国际环比增长8.8%(QoQ  +6.6pct)/华虹半导体环比增长4%(QoQ +1.8pct)。三大晶圆制造厂的季度出货均价提升反应晶圆制造行业的高景气，其中联电和中芯国际在出货均价方面上涨更为明显。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理1.2 产能利用率情况：扩产进行时依然满载2021年二季度联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家的产能利用率均达到了100%及以上，饱满的产能利用率折射着晶圆制造的高景气。其中中芯国际的产能利用率近年来首次站上100%，联电和华虹半导体的产能利用率在2021年一季度满载后，季度连续呈现高负荷运转，华虹半导体的产能利用率更是创历史新高达到109.5%。高产能利用率背后，更暗含着扩产下依然满载。2021年二季度联电和华虹半导体的产能分别环比增长3.9%和3.8%，而中芯国际的产能更是环比增长了10.1%。中芯国际在取得两位数的产能扩充同时，产能利用率从98.7%进一步提升到100.4%，进一步体现了产能端的紧张情况。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理1.3 毛利率：景气度推动盈利能力提升台积电的毛利率仍领先于整个行业，但从毛利率的变化趋势上不同于行业内其他公司，主要是由于台积电的产品特殊性不够具有行业代表性。2021年二季度台积电毛利率50%，同比和环比都有所下滑，主要由于台积电出货均价未有明显提高，而成本端有所上升。联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体三家毛利率均有环比提升，体现晶圆制造行业性盈利能力提升的现象。其中中芯国际季度毛利率提升最为明显，2021年二季度中芯国际毛利率30.1%，环比提升7.5%。联电和华虹半导体季度毛利率为31.2%和24.8%，也分别环比提升4.7%和1.1%。三家晶圆制造厂毛利率的提升，主要受益于行业景气度上升，产品出货价格上涨所致。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理二  抽丝剥茧晶圆制造行业深处的数据关系2.1 毛利率分析视角-成本结构角度：产品价格上涨主导毛利率上升从成本结构角度具体分析，行业公司毛利率变化的主要驱动因素。台积电的毛利率下滑，主要在于二季度台积电的单片出货均价从1709美元到1712美元的提升并不明显，而单片成本却从814美元大幅提升到856美元，进而挤压了公司的毛利率水平。联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的毛利率提升主要是出货价格上涨带来，其中二季度联电和中芯国际单片出货均价环比分别提升了53美元和62美元。虽然产能扩充和材料上涨等方面会带来成本的上升，但由于产品价格上涨完全承担了成本项的增加，三家公司毛利率都表现上升的情况。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理2.2 换个视角再看毛利率：剔除折旧摊销后，长期毛利率上行财报中的表观毛利率，由于其中包含折旧摊销等影响，未能很好地表明公司的经营性情况。换个视角观察毛利率(剔除折旧摊销)的指标，更体现公司经营层面的盈利能力。晶圆制造行业具有制造业的特性，在供不应求的情况提升资本开支进行扩产，从而带来折旧和摊销的增加。虽然中芯国际的报表毛利率并不突出，但是在剔除掉折旧摊销影响后，中芯国际2021年二季度毛利率达到55.9%，明显领先于联电和华虹半导体。报表毛利率受折旧摊销影响，主要由于公司的持续扩产，但经营层面的盈利能力随着行业景气度上升而提升明显。从长期维度看，资本开支的折旧摊销随着时间逐渐减少，行业盈利能力有望向上抬升。2.3 晶圆制造地区收入：呈现国产替代进行时在联电、中芯国际和华虹半导体的收入中，中国或亚太区的收入占比都有60%以上，表现晶圆制造有着强烈的国产需求。在台积电收入占比较小，主要由于台积电以先进制程工艺为主，先进工艺全球主要客户来自于海外厂商。从二季度各公司的收入占比看，四家厂商的中国区收入都有提升，尤其是中芯国际提升最为明显(+7pct)，中国区的收入占比达到63%。即使是以先进制程工艺为主的台积电，本季中国区的收入占比回到11%。在经历大陆大客户事件后中国区占比重新回升，表现中国晶圆制造需求的旺盛。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理2.4 下游应用表现：5G&IoT带动消费电子需求，国产替代带来业务高增速台积电本季度的增长动力主要来自于高性能计算领域，环比增长14.6%远高于公司增速，主要是由于公司先进制程工艺的出货提升。汽车和数字消费电子领域在台积电的占比不高，虽然占比没提升但仍保持正向增长。台积电由于技术的领先，分应用的产品增长不太具有行业性特征，台积电优先发展先进工艺的产能。国际客户优先选择台积电和联电产能以保证供应链安全，在台积电优先发展优先产能情况下，联电的季度增长主要来自于资讯电脑和通讯类业务的增长。中芯国际和华虹半导体的季度增长主要来自于消费电子及电子消费品等带动。5G和IoT推动消费类电子的需求增长，由于消费类电子产品相关芯片制程要求不太高，在国产替代的推动下业务高增长。二季度中芯国际的消费电子业务环比增长50.7%，国内巨大的需求带动消费电子业务占比提升至25%。中芯国际其他业务中主要是包含汽车和工业等应用，该业务环比增长24.1%，强劲增长主要来自于新能源车等应用市场的增量拉动。华虹半导体的电子消费品同样受益于相关应用国产替代的推动，在各应用中增长最快。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理2.5 各晶圆尺寸市场：大陆12寸晶圆高增长，国产替代稀缺性台积电和联电的季度收入增长没有明显的结构性变化，在8寸和12寸上的增速都接近于公司整体增速，主要是由于两厂商的产能提升较小，主要受出货价影响。中芯国际和华虹半导体的季度收入有结构性的变化。中芯国际整体环比增速达21%，而12寸晶圆的环比增速更是达到27.3%，在价格因素外还主要因为华为事件后28nm及以下节点的产能重新填补。华虹半导体12寸晶圆收入环比增长有54%，主要是由于华虹对12寸产能的重视，产能也陆续释放。从中芯国际和华虹半导体提升12寸晶圆收入占比的角度，国内晶圆厂对12寸晶圆的重视以及国内对12寸晶圆的迫切需求。在国产替代层面上，12寸晶圆更凸显其稀缺性。来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理三  三季度及下半年展望1、收入层面：量价齐升延续二季度晶圆制造行业的收入增长来自于量价齐升，三季度量价齐升逻辑有望延续。1)量的逻辑：主要晶圆厂商仍维持扩张节奏。中芯国际维持原有扩产目标，“北京厂12英寸增加1万片，在12月出货;深圳和天津厂8英寸扩产增加4.5万片，会在四季度实现”;华虹半导体扩产计划仍进行，“无锡  12 寸晶圆厂月产能，预计至年底增加1.7  万片”;联电三季度指引出货环比增长1-2%，并进一步上调扩产目标，“P5产能增加0.6万片月产能，今年底前到位;P6从原计划的2.75万片上提到3.25万片，预计2023年2季投产”。2)价的逻辑：晶圆制造，涨价之声此起彼伏。联电，三季度指引出货价环比上涨6%，并传出11月将进一步涨价;台积电，台湾媒体报道2022年一季度起对成熟制程涨15-20%，先进制程涨10%;其他晶圆厂，韩国媒体The  Elec九月初报导，三星和Key Foundry也决定涨价，调涨幅度在15%到20%间，4到5个月后生效。2、盈利能力层面：价格上涨依然提升毛利率扒开二季度财报，行业盈利能力上行主要受益于价格的上涨。展望三季度，价格上涨依然有望带动盈利能力向上。毛利率逻辑：在折旧摊销相对稳定的情况下，价格成为影响毛利率主要因素。三季度晶圆代工价格的上涨有望进一步推动毛利率上行。中芯国际，三季度毛利率指引32~34%，在二季度30.1%的毛利率基础上进一步提升;华虹半导体，三季度毛利率预计在25-27%，在二季度毛利率24.2%上再提升;联电共同总经理王石预期，三季度毛利率有望攀高至35%水平，二季度毛利率为31.2%。3、板块展望：行业景气度持续，盈利能力进一步向好行业景气度的持续带来台积电和联电的股价重回增长，联电再次创历史新高。而彼时中芯国际和华虹半导体的股价表现相对低迷，被整个国内半导体板块拖累，存在错杀的可能。上游半导体设备端存在设备价格下降的市场担心，而下游设计应用端是承受代工涨价和产能不确定的压力。反观中游晶圆制造端是整个产业链的核心环节，上游降价和对下游的涨价都将让中游环节的晶圆制造受益。从市场恐慌中，发现机会。前段时间Morgan Stanley对存储的悲观报告带来了市场的恐慌，而其中提到“SMIC(中芯国际) could support  the current capacity to GigaDevice, but there could be a reason for it to hold  back incremental supply for NOR，given the better profit and stronger demand  (mainly from China) for other logic products”。这也验证了三季度中芯国际产能饱满，可自行挑选客户，并佐证了公司指引中进一步向上的毛利率。半导体的供需差核心在于晶圆制造端，在景气周期上制造厂有绝对的议价权和产能调配权。本文来源于“海豚投研”微信公众号；智通财经编辑：文文。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124395210,"gmtCreate":1624728842530,"gmtModify":1703844190012,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124395210","repostId":"2146009755","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2146009755","pubTimestamp":1624722986,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146009755?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 23:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"200亿美元！一天9.8万吨水！台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146009755","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"最主要的是，在2nm芯片方面，台积电的建厂成本就高达200亿美元。另外，该工厂建成后，一天就将使用98000立方米的水，等于一天9.8万吨水。而台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息，也意味着将带来两个问题。如今，台积电将建设首个2nm芯片工厂，直接投资超过200亿美元。面对如此严重的淡水资源消耗，这是环保部门没有批准台积电的原因之一。","content":"<html><body><article><p>进入2021年后，芯片行业格外热闹，一方面是全球缺芯，<strong>各大芯片企业都在积极扩大芯片产能</strong>，加速建厂；另外一方面是各大芯片企业在技术上都取得了新突破。</p><p>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>正式对外宣布，将会在今年试产4nm、3nm制程的芯片，并于2022年大规模量产；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>发布了全球首个3nm制程的芯片，虽然是储存类芯片，但也是全球第一，而且，三星也计划在2022年量产3nm制程的芯片。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>则发布了全球首个2nm芯片制造技术，<strong>并将与三星、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>等合作生产制造2nm芯片</strong>。</p><p>随后台积电也发布消息称，2nm芯片的发展超出了预期，将会在2023年试产，2024年试产，为此，台积电在2020年就开始着手扩建工厂，为2nm芯片做准备。</p><p><strong>但就在近日，台积电2nm芯片再次传来新消息。</strong></p><p>据悉，台积电将在位于新竹的科学工业园区建设第一家2nm工厂，但<strong>由于用水、环保等方面的原因，导致该计划被环保部门拒绝了两次。</strong></p><p>最主要的是，在2nm芯片方面，<strong>台积电的建厂成本就高达200亿美元</strong>。另外，该工厂建成后，一天就将使用98000立方米的水，等于一天9.8万吨水。</p><p>而台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息，也意味着将带来两个问题。</p><p><strong>第一个问题，先进制程芯片的价格还会涨。</strong></p><p>据了解，芯片制造技术越先进，其建厂成本就越高，台积电宣布在美国建设5nm芯片生产线，预计投资120亿美元。</p><p>三星在美国建设3nm芯片工厂，预计投资170亿美元。如今，台积电将建设首个2nm芯片工厂，直接投资超过200亿美元。</p><p>我们都知道，<strong>投资金额增加，意味着芯片代工成本也将随之增长</strong>。</p><p>例如，2018年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>骁龙845处理器，其采用10nm工艺，<strong>那时候的综合成本才500多元。而5nm的高通骁龙888处理器，其综合成本都超过200美元以上。</strong></p><p>另外，在台积电的营收贡献中，7nm和5nm工艺贡献了40%以上的营收，从侧面看出，台积电的收入主要来自先进工艺。</p><p>未来3nm、2nm芯片成功制造后，必然会进一步促使智能手机等产品上涨，毕竟近年来，采用先进芯片的智能手机也确实在不断上涨中。</p><p><strong>第二个问题，先进制程的芯片将消耗更多水资源等。</strong></p><p>虽然地球是被水包围着的，但在全球范围内，可用的淡水资源是有限的，而海水淡化的成本实在太高了。</p><p>而台积电的2nm芯片工厂，1天内就要消耗9.8万水，这样的水资源消耗实在有点巨大。</p><p>当然，台积电治之所以需要这么多淡水资源，<strong>主要是将淡水资源净化成为纯水，利用纯水对芯片进行冲洗，从而带走芯片上的杂质。</strong></p><p>制程越小的芯片，其对纯度的要求就越高，自然也就需要更多的纯水进行冲洗。</p><p>但是，台湾省比较缺水，尤其是今年，台湾省缺水程度有点严重，部分地区已经开始采用分时段供水。</p><p>面对如此严重的淡水资源消耗，<strong>这是环保部门没有批准台积电的原因之一</strong>。</p><p>其实，ASML之前就明确表示，越是先进的芯片，其对资源的消耗就越严重，所以ASML才表示，下一代NA EUV光刻机之后，ASML将更注重效率和环保。</p><p>简单说就是，ASML自身也认识到先进制程芯片生产过程中存在资源消耗过多的情况，所以才决定在2025年之后，研发更为环保和效率的光刻机。</p><p>对于台积电传来的2nm芯片的新消息，你们怎么看，欢迎留言、讨论~</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n200亿美元！一天9.8万吨水！台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 23:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062623585479cb5c43&s=b><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>进入2021年后，芯片行业格外热闹，一方面是全球缺芯，各大芯片企业都在积极扩大芯片产能，加速建厂；另外一方面是各大芯片企业在技术上都取得了新突破。例如，台积电正式对外宣布，将会在今年试产4nm、3nm制程的芯片，并于2022年大规模量产；三星发布了全球首个3nm制程的芯片，虽然是储存类芯片，但也是全球第一，而且，三星也计划在2022年量产3nm制程的芯片。IBM则发布了全球首个2nm芯片制造技术，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062623585479cb5c43&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062623585479cb5c43&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2146009755","content_text":"进入2021年后，芯片行业格外热闹，一方面是全球缺芯，各大芯片企业都在积极扩大芯片产能，加速建厂；另外一方面是各大芯片企业在技术上都取得了新突破。例如，台积电正式对外宣布，将会在今年试产4nm、3nm制程的芯片，并于2022年大规模量产；三星发布了全球首个3nm制程的芯片，虽然是储存类芯片，但也是全球第一，而且，三星也计划在2022年量产3nm制程的芯片。IBM则发布了全球首个2nm芯片制造技术，并将与三星、英特尔等合作生产制造2nm芯片。随后台积电也发布消息称，2nm芯片的发展超出了预期，将会在2023年试产，2024年试产，为此，台积电在2020年就开始着手扩建工厂，为2nm芯片做准备。但就在近日，台积电2nm芯片再次传来新消息。据悉，台积电将在位于新竹的科学工业园区建设第一家2nm工厂，但由于用水、环保等方面的原因，导致该计划被环保部门拒绝了两次。最主要的是，在2nm芯片方面，台积电的建厂成本就高达200亿美元。另外，该工厂建成后，一天就将使用98000立方米的水，等于一天9.8万吨水。而台积电2纳米芯片传来新消息，也意味着将带来两个问题。第一个问题，先进制程芯片的价格还会涨。据了解，芯片制造技术越先进，其建厂成本就越高，台积电宣布在美国建设5nm芯片生产线，预计投资120亿美元。三星在美国建设3nm芯片工厂，预计投资170亿美元。如今，台积电将建设首个2nm芯片工厂，直接投资超过200亿美元。我们都知道，投资金额增加，意味着芯片代工成本也将随之增长。例如，2018年的高通骁龙845处理器，其采用10nm工艺，那时候的综合成本才500多元。而5nm的高通骁龙888处理器，其综合成本都超过200美元以上。另外，在台积电的营收贡献中，7nm和5nm工艺贡献了40%以上的营收，从侧面看出，台积电的收入主要来自先进工艺。未来3nm、2nm芯片成功制造后，必然会进一步促使智能手机等产品上涨，毕竟近年来，采用先进芯片的智能手机也确实在不断上涨中。第二个问题，先进制程的芯片将消耗更多水资源等。虽然地球是被水包围着的，但在全球范围内，可用的淡水资源是有限的，而海水淡化的成本实在太高了。而台积电的2nm芯片工厂，1天内就要消耗9.8万水，这样的水资源消耗实在有点巨大。当然，台积电治之所以需要这么多淡水资源，主要是将淡水资源净化成为纯水，利用纯水对芯片进行冲洗，从而带走芯片上的杂质。制程越小的芯片，其对纯度的要求就越高，自然也就需要更多的纯水进行冲洗。但是，台湾省比较缺水，尤其是今年，台湾省缺水程度有点严重，部分地区已经开始采用分时段供水。面对如此严重的淡水资源消耗，这是环保部门没有批准台积电的原因之一。其实，ASML之前就明确表示，越是先进的芯片，其对资源的消耗就越严重，所以ASML才表示，下一代NA EUV光刻机之后，ASML将更注重效率和环保。简单说就是，ASML自身也认识到先进制程芯片生产过程中存在资源消耗过多的情况，所以才决定在2025年之后，研发更为环保和效率的光刻机。对于台积电传来的2nm芯片的新消息，你们怎么看，欢迎留言、讨论~","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187375098,"gmtCreate":1623744768814,"gmtModify":1704210164355,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187375098","repostId":"2137133210","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2137133210","pubTimestamp":1621819272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137133210?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-24 09:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"【权益变动】枫叶教育(01317.HK)获主席兼CEO任书良增持200万股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137133210","media":"金融界网站","summary":"【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，枫叶教育(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。","content":"<html><body><div><p>　　【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01317\">枫叶教育</a>(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。</p>\n<div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=\"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/24092132805334.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e661d079a394a2795b91495bc103d7","relate_stocks":{"01317":"枫叶教育"},"source_url":"http://hk.jrj.com.cn/2021/05/24092132805334.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137133210","content_text":"【财华社讯】港交所权益资料显示，枫叶教育(01317.HK)获董事会主席、首席执行官兼执行董事任书良于5月17日在场纫悦抗善骄价1.595港元增持200万股，涉资319万港元。增持后，任书良的好仓持股数目为1,562,728,010股，好仓持股比例由52.10%升至52.17%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323162028,"gmtCreate":1615311787164,"gmtModify":1704781069731,"author":{"id":"3555043703449195","authorId":"3555043703449195","name":"XLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9569f58c699b3db207dd98e1e8400585","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555043703449195","authorIdStr":"3555043703449195"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323162028","repostId":"323917301","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":323917301,"gmtCreate":1615298749503,"gmtModify":1704780774635,"author":{"id":"3554463181289571","authorId":"3554463181289571","name":"肖申可比克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2daf9b5ed468526328d3e5b19f8f43","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554463181289571","authorIdStr":"3554463181289571"},"themes":[],"title":"宏觀角度對股市的一些思考，還會繼續跌麼？","htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 如果你想長期在股市生存，那麼這篇文值得你花1小時仔細品讀，相信我，不會讓你失望！ &nbsp;&nbsp;3.7號上週日視頻直播跟騎兵連戰友們交流了下最近行情，從宏觀經濟角度出發做了些行情分析，因爲涉及知識比較專業，好多人理解的比較費勁，我把部分內容整理下，儘可能用白話的形式展示給大家。 &nbsp;&nbsp;先看下最近實盤操作和理念： &nbsp;&nbsp;2月24日時候建議整體都降倉位，然後一直強調不要搏日線級別反彈，這次調整是周線或月線級別調整，多看少動。 &nbsp;&nbsp;對看好的標的控制好倉位的前提下可以分批買入，只不過以前補倉資金分10份，這次分20份補這樣，實際最近幾天我也一直在分批買入，在騎兵連也進行了實盤分享。 &nbsp;&nbsp;對於散戶而言，最好的風險管理對衝手段其實就是倉位管理，這是我一直強調的核心理念，像其他衍生品對衝工具，是不太適合散戶的。新人朋友經歷這輪下跌，自己在場內真金白銀實操後，可能纔對我一直強調的核心倉位控制理念感同身受。 &nbsp;&nbsp;這裏不是強調我預測的多麼準，實際我一直把自己定位爲股市裏的“新人”，預測短期走勢是最不靠譜的，一般也不輕易做擇時和輪動，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相結合的策略。 &nbsp;&nbsp;本文主題是基於股市在經濟週期趨勢中客觀反映一些規律的個人看法。 &nbsp;&nbsp;股市預測是玄學問題：唯一不變的是經濟週期和人性博弈。我們去探索分析經濟週期和人性本質，目的並不是爲了去預測市場，而是有助於我們去研判事物客觀發展的一些規律。 &nbsp;&nbsp;最近行情從2月22日開始跌，3.8當天更是單邊無抵抗下跌，這種跌法很容易讓人恐慌，讓人眼前發矇，不知所措。 &nbsp;&nbsp;學過經濟學的都知道，一個完整的經濟週期一般要經歷衰退期、復甦期、過熱期和","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 如果你想長期在股市生存，那麼這篇文值得你花1小時仔細品讀，相信我，不會讓你失望！ &nbsp;&nbsp;3.7號上週日視頻直播跟騎兵連戰友們交流了下最近行情，從宏觀經濟角度出發做了些行情分析，因爲涉及知識比較專業，好多人理解的比較費勁，我把部分內容整理下，儘可能用白話的形式展示給大家。 &nbsp;&nbsp;先看下最近實盤操作和理念： &nbsp;&nbsp;2月24日時候建議整體都降倉位，然後一直強調不要搏日線級別反彈，這次調整是周線或月線級別調整，多看少動。 &nbsp;&nbsp;對看好的標的控制好倉位的前提下可以分批買入，只不過以前補倉資金分10份，這次分20份補這樣，實際最近幾天我也一直在分批買入，在騎兵連也進行了實盤分享。 &nbsp;&nbsp;對於散戶而言，最好的風險管理對衝手段其實就是倉位管理，這是我一直強調的核心理念，像其他衍生品對衝工具，是不太適合散戶的。新人朋友經歷這輪下跌，自己在場內真金白銀實操後，可能纔對我一直強調的核心倉位控制理念感同身受。 &nbsp;&nbsp;這裏不是強調我預測的多麼準，實際我一直把自己定位爲股市裏的“新人”，預測短期走勢是最不靠譜的，一般也不輕易做擇時和輪動，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相結合的策略。 &nbsp;&nbsp;本文主題是基於股市在經濟週期趨勢中客觀反映一些規律的個人看法。 &nbsp;&nbsp;股市預測是玄學問題：唯一不變的是經濟週期和人性博弈。我們去探索分析經濟週期和人性本質，目的並不是爲了去預測市場，而是有助於我們去研判事物客觀發展的一些規律。 &nbsp;&nbsp;最近行情從2月22日開始跌，3.8當天更是單邊無抵抗下跌，這種跌法很容易讓人恐慌，讓人眼前發矇，不知所措。 &nbsp;&nbsp;學過經濟學的都知道，一個完整的經濟週期一般要經歷衰退期、復甦期、過熱期和","text":"如果你想長期在股市生存，那麼這篇文值得你花1小時仔細品讀，相信我，不會讓你失望！ 3.7號上週日視頻直播跟騎兵連戰友們交流了下最近行情，從宏觀經濟角度出發做了些行情分析，因爲涉及知識比較專業，好多人理解的比較費勁，我把部分內容整理下，儘可能用白話的形式展示給大家。 先看下最近實盤操作和理念： 2月24日時候建議整體都降倉位，然後一直強調不要搏日線級別反彈，這次調整是周線或月線級別調整，多看少動。 對看好的標的控制好倉位的前提下可以分批買入，只不過以前補倉資金分10份，這次分20份補這樣，實際最近幾天我也一直在分批買入，在騎兵連也進行了實盤分享。 對於散戶而言，最好的風險管理對衝手段其實就是倉位管理，這是我一直強調的核心理念，像其他衍生品對衝工具，是不太適合散戶的。新人朋友經歷這輪下跌，自己在場內真金白銀實操後，可能纔對我一直強調的核心倉位控制理念感同身受。 這裏不是強調我預測的多麼準，實際我一直把自己定位爲股市裏的“新人”，預測短期走勢是最不靠譜的，一般也不輕易做擇時和輪動，更多的是“持有”+“套利”相結合的策略。 本文主題是基於股市在經濟週期趨勢中客觀反映一些規律的個人看法。 股市預測是玄學問題：唯一不變的是經濟週期和人性博弈。我們去探索分析經濟週期和人性本質，目的並不是爲了去預測市場，而是有助於我們去研判事物客觀發展的一些規律。 最近行情從2月22日開始跌，3.8當天更是單邊無抵抗下跌，這種跌法很容易讓人恐慌，讓人眼前發矇，不知所措。 學過經濟學的都知道，一個完整的經濟週期一般要經歷衰退期、復甦期、過熱期和","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697e0144c360fe0acdd0cd2a2c35924f","width":"688","height":"459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323917301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}