ThiamAlwaysW personal page - To The Moon

ThiamAlwaysW

ThiamAlwaysW

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02-14

$RIVN 20240223 13.5 PUT$

2023-12-27

buy here for some renound

2022-12-01

$Alibaba(BABA)$

2022-11-30

2022-11-29

Nice

Apple Stock: The Market Is Right - The Current Price Is Fair

2022-11-21

$Walt Disney(DIS)$

2022-11-15

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

2022-11-07

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$

2022-11-02

2022-10-28

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$

2022-10-27

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$

2022-10-27

180

2022-10-26

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$

2022-10-25

Ok

Tesla Options Hint at Trouble Ahead With Bets Around $200

2022-10-14

2022-10-13

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

2022-10-12

2022-10-11

Hmm

What Cramer is watching Tuesday — chip troubles, Apple estimate raises, Disney price target cut

2022-10-10

2022-10-03

Ggg

My Current View Of The S&P 500 Index: October 2022 Edition (Technical Analysis)

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/RIVN 20240223 13.5 PUT\">$RIVN 20240223 13.5 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/RIVN 20240223 13.5 PUT\">$RIVN 20240223 13.5 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$RIVN 20240223 13.5 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5df2e72bd51b7eeeedf63de6eabfaaf1","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273632860229912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256489033879824,"gmtCreate":1703638673791,"gmtModify":1703638678342,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy here for some renound","listText":"buy here for some renound","text":"buy here for some renound","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256489033879824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965112006,"gmtCreate":1669909395805,"gmtModify":1676538268330,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965112006","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962244076,"gmtCreate":1669792637395,"gmtModify":1676538244333,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962244076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962944440,"gmtCreate":1669710161281,"gmtModify":1676538226799,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962944440","repostId":"2287354580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287354580","pubTimestamp":1669735345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287354580?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Market Is Right - The Current Price Is Fair","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287354580","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySome bearish analysts think that Apple stock is expensive right now.Most of the Apple analysi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Some bearish analysts think that Apple stock is expensive right now.</li><li>Most of the Apple analysis is not incorporating a forecast of AR/VR products.</li><li>The effect of share buybacks is also frequently not included in those analyses.</li><li>The article will offer evidence that the stock is not expensive at all using the discounted cash flow methodology incorporating those two factors.</li><li>The calculation will be made through three different stages.</li></ul><h2>Introduction</h2><p>We consider that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple Inc. </a> is a &#34;hold&#34; right now. In this article, I will provide evidence that the stock market price ranging between $130 and $170 per share year-to-date is moving around its intrinsic value; in other words, the current stock price is neither expensive nor cheap.</p><p>I will show a new perspective about the calculation of Apple&#39;s intrinsic value that will help readers to understand why the stock price has not dropped as some bearish analysts might expect. First, I will use the DCF methodology for making projections of the current Apple&#39;s products and services. Second, I will include the virtual and augmented reality products AR/VR in the calculation taking the assumptions made by one of the most reliable analysts about Apple - Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, and GlobalData Forecasts; the goal is to estimate a present value of the projected free cash flow (FCF) that would be generated by the AR/VR products that would be launched in 2023. Finally, I will add the effect of share buy-backs in the intrinsic value&#39;s calculation.</p><p>I need to remind you that Apple stock should be seen as a long-term investment as Tim Cook clearly emphasized in the last TIME100 summit based on New York in June 2022, Tim Cook said:</p><blockquote>If you are a short term trader, do not invest in Apple stock. Because if you are doing that, you are trading at a different time horizon than we&#39;re investing in. We invest for the long term. Doing good is creating shareholder value in the long term; it may not in the very short term. Our interests are not aligned to the short term trader.</blockquote><h2>Context</h2><p>Apple is facing some problems in one of the main Foxconn&#39;s facilities which is the world&#39;s largest iPhone factory located in Zhengzhou, China, due to the zero-COVID policy implemented in the country. This could affect the expectations of the analysts for the last quarter in 2022. However, the problem is not in the demand but in the supply as mentioned in the Apple&#39;s web site in November 2022:</p><blockquote>COVID restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro max assembly facility located Zhengzhou, China. The facility is currently operating at significantly reduced capacity. As we have done throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we are prioritizing the health and safety of the workers in our supply chain.</blockquote><blockquote>We continue to see strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models. However, we now expect lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than we previously anticipated and customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products.</blockquote><p>Furthermore, there are recent worrisome news about the protests in the Zhengzhou&#39;s facilities with all the new recruited workers. However, Tim Cook has a strong specialization in supply chain management; in fact, that was one of the main reasons why Steve Jobs believed that there was anyone better than Tim Cook as his successor.</p><p>Therefore, we don&#39;t have to be worried about the short-term issues mentioned on the news particularly if we are focused on a long-term horizon. In my opinion, a key factor is that Tim Cook has developed a long-term strategy in the company focused on delivering more value for long-term investors, which is reflected by the Apple stock&#39;s capital appreciation of more than 600% in the last 10 years.</p><p>Given our focus on the long-term, I propose to calculate an intrinsic value considering the strong business model and the outstanding management; these two factors are key to make decent projections of the future FCFs to calculate Apple&#39;s intrinsic value. Let&#39;s see why this stock is at a fair price.</p><h2>First stage: standard intrinsic value</h2><p>In this part, I will show you that this is the typical way of calculation of the intrinsic value in several analysis using the DCF, considering a conservative growth in revenues and FCF of the company for the next years.</p><p>These are my assumptions for this stage:</p><ul><li>Outstanding shares from 2021: 16,877,005,347</li><li>FCF margins based on the last 10 years average: 22%</li><li>Revenue growth of 3% for the next 6 years</li><li>Total debt and cash on hand in the balance sheet as of September 2022</li><li>Enterprise value is the subtraction of the total debt from the present value of the all the future FCF projected adding the cash on hand from the balance sheet.</li><li>Growth in FCF perpetuity (FCFP): 3%</li><li>Discounted rate: 8%</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9593afa9b5806f52aadb452a74e0f3d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><p>The estimations are conservative; for example, the growth of FCF has been 13.65% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the last 10 years while I am assuming 3% for my projections. The revenue growth expected from the consensus is 3% for 2023, 5.5% for 2024, and 5.1% for 2025; my estimations are 3% of revenue growth for all the years projected.</p><p>The intrinsic value according to this stage of calculation is $97.36 per share which is similar to the number that some bearish analysts are getting in their calculations.</p><h2>Second stage: including VR/AR products</h2><p>According to Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the most reliable analysts about Apple, the AR/VR products might be launched in 2023. The goal is to estimate FCF projections for the AR/VR products using the next assumptions:</p><ul><li>AR/VR products will be launched in 2023</li><li>The number of units sold estimated in 2023 would be 1,500</li><li>Price estimated per unit is $3,000 per unit</li><li>Growth of sales: 40% annual, according to GlobalData Forecasts, it is expected to reach $30 billion in sales in 2030, which means a 40% CAGR roughly since 2023</li><li>FCF margins (FCF/Revenues) generated by the AR/VR products: 22% which are aligned with FCF margins of the entire company.</li><li>Growth of FCFP: 6% annual.</li><li>Discounted rate: 8%</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83ebc9d88521e926b225e41ae3f96af2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><p>The present value (PV) of the future FCFs obtained under these assumptions is $320,399 million. This number will be summed up to the enterprise value previously calculated in the first stage. In this sense, we are keeping all the assumptions made in the first stage; therefore, our new intrinsic value including the AR/VR products forecast is 116.34$ per share:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/384dec806a0271e64a05266bd51d8205\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><h2>Third stage: including the share buyback&#39;s effect</h2><p>In this stage, we need to know what was the rate at which Apple makes its share buy-backs, so reviewing its past history in the last 9 years, we have the following:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76916d1ad63a59b6656f3e33d336fff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author, Apple&#39;s Annual report</p><p>We consider the share buy-backs from 2013 to 2019 since there was a 4-to-1 split in 2020. Taking the average rate, Apple repurchases 5.5% of the outstanding shares of the previous year. Now, we will apply 5% for the next years projected to the year 2026:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8334af831132ec75127463fcd516b83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><p>In this stage, we take the enterprise value and divide it by the outstanding number of shares projected for the year 2026. Of course, Apple might keep reducing its number of outstanding shares beyond 2026, driving up even more the intrinsic value but we want to be conservative in our assumptions; thus, according to this model, the number of outstanding shares for 2027 onwards will be the same as 2026.</p><p>The final intrinsic value including the projections of the AR/VR products and the share buy-back&#39;s effect is 150$ per share which is the average price at which Apple stock was trading in the last months.</p><h2>Challenges to the thesis</h2><p>Some of the assumptions that we&#39;ve made might be broken, so that the intrinsic value could be lower than that we are expecting. For instance, if the annual rate of buy-backs falls from 5% to 3% keeping the other factors unchanged, the intrinsic value would drop from $150 to $135 per share. We don&#39;t know if Apple will keep the same rate or not, so I would consider a range between $135$ to $150 per share as the intrinsic value.</p><p>A second factor would be a scenario in which the AR/VR products are not launched in 2023 delaying the propel to an unknown date. In that case, our intrinsic value would only incorporate the buy-backs and the projection of the current products for the next years. In this scenario, the Apple&#39;s intrinsic value would be around 125.82$ per share. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine that Tim Cook would delay the launch of the AR/VR products since he said in September 2022:</p><blockquote>Not too long from today, people will wonder how they led a life without augmented reality, stressing the &#34;profound&#34; impact it will have on the not so distant future.</blockquote><p>This combined by the expectations of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, strengthen the possibility of that important event for Apple in 2023 with a high probability.</p><p>A third factor that could weak our thesis is related to the average price of the AR/VR products. The average price per unit for these products assumed in our calculation was $3,000. If the price was lower than expected keeping the other factors unchanged, the intrinsic value will be impacted:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419f5a3fd23e39fec66b6cc12899f68f\" tg-width=\"332\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><p>However, I cannot imagine a scenario in which the price per unit reaches $1,500 since we know that the segment targeted for Apple&#39;s products is the wealthier segment of the market; this is another reason why Apple has an strong pricing power since its products are well-demanded and its customers have high buying power.</p><p>Another factor that could affect the valuation is the more restrictive monetary policy by the Fed in the next years. More interest rate hikes to control the inflation rates in the economy could affect the demand for Apple&#39;s products and services, so the revenue growth might be impacted. Nonetheless, the Apple&#39;s business model is very resilient since the main target of the company is the wealthier segment of the market. Most likely, the problem continues being the supply instead of the demand for Apple&#39;s products, and the launch of the new AR/VR products could be another interesting catalyzer to deliver more revenue growth, so I feel comfortable with the 3% of revenue growth for the next years.</p><p>Finally, we are considering that the risk frequently mentioned on the news about the possibility that China could invade Taiwan is no significant. In Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a critical Apple&#39;s provider of the 3nm-chips. However, there would be several negative implications for China, like beginning a war with the US, or the possibility that Taiwan or the US destroy all TSM&#39;s assets, making the invasion a failure. Apparently, Warren Buffett is also assigning a low probability for such event since he has recently invested in TSM.</p><p>In a nutshell, taking all these scenarios, we could establish a range for the Apple&#39;s intrinsic value between 135$ and 150$ per share. The stock price has been moving around that range in the last months, so it is likely that the market is considering the launch of the AR/VR products and the share buy-back&#39;s effect. Apparently, the market is not considering the Apple car as part of the valuation of the company either.</p><h2>Strategy with Apple stock</h2><p>Apple stock is a <i>hold</i> for those investors who have invested in the company several years ago. A new investor who is thinking of buying Apple stock could consider that the current price ranging between $130 and $150 per share is the fair price. I would start a position when the price is between $130 and $140 per share, increasing my position gradually if the stock falls below that range.</p><p>Given the uncertainty related to the monetary policy from the FED, the war between Ukraine and Russia, the zero-COVID policy in China, a recession in 2023, and so on, the stock might drop below the range of the intrinsic value previously mentioned giving an opportunity to new investors. Being aware of which is Apple&#39;s fair value will enable us to know if we should start a position or not right now. If we consider the stock to be expensive, we would have the incentives to wait for a significant fall in the stock price that may never come since we are not making a proper calculation of the intrinsic value of the company.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>Some analysts state that Apple stock is overvalued using multiples, comparing them with other competitors, and encouraging investors to wait for a significant decline in Apple stock, a fall that may not come. We need to be aware of the limitations of only using multiples like P/E, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, etc. since these multiples assume almost the same quality among all the comparables without considering factors that are only intrinsic to each company.</p><p>In addition, most of these analyses do not include neither the launch of the AR/VR products in 2023 and most importantly, nor the share buy-back&#39;s effect which is a regular practice of the Apple&#39;s management in the last 10 years to deliver more value to long-term investors.</p><p>A critical factor behind all the assumptions we&#39;ve made in this article is the management&#39;s capabilities to deliver the highest value to the shareholders; Tim Cook has done an amazing job in all these years, strengthening Apple&#39;s market position, the innovative culture inside the company, the brand&#39;s reputation, the efficiency in the supply chain management and the capital allocation.</p><p>Apple is a <i>compounder</i> since it is able to reinvest its cash flows at high returns; this combined with its strong buybacks year by year ends up boosting the intrinsic value. So most likely the current intrinsic value ranging between $130 and $150 per share would be higher in the next years as the company keeps delivering more value to its clients and investors.</p><p>Thanks to a solid and consistent long-term strategy, we feel confident making projections for Apple&#39;s future performance, getting an approximation of Apple&#39;s intrinsic value ranging between $135 and $150 per share. Therefore, there could be an interesting opportunity to buy Apple stock when the price drops below that range.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Market Is Right - The Current Price Is Fair</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Market Is Right - The Current Price Is Fair\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560944-apple-stock-market-right-current-price-is-fair><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySome bearish analysts think that Apple stock is expensive right now.Most of the Apple analysis is not incorporating a forecast of AR/VR products.The effect of share buybacks is also frequently ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560944-apple-stock-market-right-current-price-is-fair\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560944-apple-stock-market-right-current-price-is-fair","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2287354580","content_text":"SummarySome bearish analysts think that Apple stock is expensive right now.Most of the Apple analysis is not incorporating a forecast of AR/VR products.The effect of share buybacks is also frequently not included in those analyses.The article will offer evidence that the stock is not expensive at all using the discounted cash flow methodology incorporating those two factors.The calculation will be made through three different stages.IntroductionWe consider that Apple Inc.  is a \"hold\" right now. In this article, I will provide evidence that the stock market price ranging between $130 and $170 per share year-to-date is moving around its intrinsic value; in other words, the current stock price is neither expensive nor cheap.I will show a new perspective about the calculation of Apple's intrinsic value that will help readers to understand why the stock price has not dropped as some bearish analysts might expect. First, I will use the DCF methodology for making projections of the current Apple's products and services. Second, I will include the virtual and augmented reality products AR/VR in the calculation taking the assumptions made by one of the most reliable analysts about Apple - Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, and GlobalData Forecasts; the goal is to estimate a present value of the projected free cash flow (FCF) that would be generated by the AR/VR products that would be launched in 2023. Finally, I will add the effect of share buy-backs in the intrinsic value's calculation.I need to remind you that Apple stock should be seen as a long-term investment as Tim Cook clearly emphasized in the last TIME100 summit based on New York in June 2022, Tim Cook said:If you are a short term trader, do not invest in Apple stock. Because if you are doing that, you are trading at a different time horizon than we're investing in. We invest for the long term. Doing good is creating shareholder value in the long term; it may not in the very short term. Our interests are not aligned to the short term trader.ContextApple is facing some problems in one of the main Foxconn's facilities which is the world's largest iPhone factory located in Zhengzhou, China, due to the zero-COVID policy implemented in the country. This could affect the expectations of the analysts for the last quarter in 2022. However, the problem is not in the demand but in the supply as mentioned in the Apple's web site in November 2022:COVID restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro max assembly facility located Zhengzhou, China. The facility is currently operating at significantly reduced capacity. As we have done throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we are prioritizing the health and safety of the workers in our supply chain.We continue to see strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models. However, we now expect lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than we previously anticipated and customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products.Furthermore, there are recent worrisome news about the protests in the Zhengzhou's facilities with all the new recruited workers. However, Tim Cook has a strong specialization in supply chain management; in fact, that was one of the main reasons why Steve Jobs believed that there was anyone better than Tim Cook as his successor.Therefore, we don't have to be worried about the short-term issues mentioned on the news particularly if we are focused on a long-term horizon. In my opinion, a key factor is that Tim Cook has developed a long-term strategy in the company focused on delivering more value for long-term investors, which is reflected by the Apple stock's capital appreciation of more than 600% in the last 10 years.Given our focus on the long-term, I propose to calculate an intrinsic value considering the strong business model and the outstanding management; these two factors are key to make decent projections of the future FCFs to calculate Apple's intrinsic value. Let's see why this stock is at a fair price.First stage: standard intrinsic valueIn this part, I will show you that this is the typical way of calculation of the intrinsic value in several analysis using the DCF, considering a conservative growth in revenues and FCF of the company for the next years.These are my assumptions for this stage:Outstanding shares from 2021: 16,877,005,347FCF margins based on the last 10 years average: 22%Revenue growth of 3% for the next 6 yearsTotal debt and cash on hand in the balance sheet as of September 2022Enterprise value is the subtraction of the total debt from the present value of the all the future FCF projected adding the cash on hand from the balance sheet.Growth in FCF perpetuity (FCFP): 3%Discounted rate: 8%Prepared by the authorThe estimations are conservative; for example, the growth of FCF has been 13.65% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the last 10 years while I am assuming 3% for my projections. The revenue growth expected from the consensus is 3% for 2023, 5.5% for 2024, and 5.1% for 2025; my estimations are 3% of revenue growth for all the years projected.The intrinsic value according to this stage of calculation is $97.36 per share which is similar to the number that some bearish analysts are getting in their calculations.Second stage: including VR/AR productsAccording to Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the most reliable analysts about Apple, the AR/VR products might be launched in 2023. The goal is to estimate FCF projections for the AR/VR products using the next assumptions:AR/VR products will be launched in 2023The number of units sold estimated in 2023 would be 1,500Price estimated per unit is $3,000 per unitGrowth of sales: 40% annual, according to GlobalData Forecasts, it is expected to reach $30 billion in sales in 2030, which means a 40% CAGR roughly since 2023FCF margins (FCF/Revenues) generated by the AR/VR products: 22% which are aligned with FCF margins of the entire company.Growth of FCFP: 6% annual.Discounted rate: 8%Prepared by the authorThe present value (PV) of the future FCFs obtained under these assumptions is $320,399 million. This number will be summed up to the enterprise value previously calculated in the first stage. In this sense, we are keeping all the assumptions made in the first stage; therefore, our new intrinsic value including the AR/VR products forecast is 116.34$ per share:Prepared by the authorThird stage: including the share buyback's effectIn this stage, we need to know what was the rate at which Apple makes its share buy-backs, so reviewing its past history in the last 9 years, we have the following:Prepared by the author, Apple's Annual reportWe consider the share buy-backs from 2013 to 2019 since there was a 4-to-1 split in 2020. Taking the average rate, Apple repurchases 5.5% of the outstanding shares of the previous year. Now, we will apply 5% for the next years projected to the year 2026:Prepared by the authorIn this stage, we take the enterprise value and divide it by the outstanding number of shares projected for the year 2026. Of course, Apple might keep reducing its number of outstanding shares beyond 2026, driving up even more the intrinsic value but we want to be conservative in our assumptions; thus, according to this model, the number of outstanding shares for 2027 onwards will be the same as 2026.The final intrinsic value including the projections of the AR/VR products and the share buy-back's effect is 150$ per share which is the average price at which Apple stock was trading in the last months.Challenges to the thesisSome of the assumptions that we've made might be broken, so that the intrinsic value could be lower than that we are expecting. For instance, if the annual rate of buy-backs falls from 5% to 3% keeping the other factors unchanged, the intrinsic value would drop from $150 to $135 per share. We don't know if Apple will keep the same rate or not, so I would consider a range between $135$ to $150 per share as the intrinsic value.A second factor would be a scenario in which the AR/VR products are not launched in 2023 delaying the propel to an unknown date. In that case, our intrinsic value would only incorporate the buy-backs and the projection of the current products for the next years. In this scenario, the Apple's intrinsic value would be around 125.82$ per share. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine that Tim Cook would delay the launch of the AR/VR products since he said in September 2022:Not too long from today, people will wonder how they led a life without augmented reality, stressing the \"profound\" impact it will have on the not so distant future.This combined by the expectations of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, strengthen the possibility of that important event for Apple in 2023 with a high probability.A third factor that could weak our thesis is related to the average price of the AR/VR products. The average price per unit for these products assumed in our calculation was $3,000. If the price was lower than expected keeping the other factors unchanged, the intrinsic value will be impacted:Prepared by the authorHowever, I cannot imagine a scenario in which the price per unit reaches $1,500 since we know that the segment targeted for Apple's products is the wealthier segment of the market; this is another reason why Apple has an strong pricing power since its products are well-demanded and its customers have high buying power.Another factor that could affect the valuation is the more restrictive monetary policy by the Fed in the next years. More interest rate hikes to control the inflation rates in the economy could affect the demand for Apple's products and services, so the revenue growth might be impacted. Nonetheless, the Apple's business model is very resilient since the main target of the company is the wealthier segment of the market. Most likely, the problem continues being the supply instead of the demand for Apple's products, and the launch of the new AR/VR products could be another interesting catalyzer to deliver more revenue growth, so I feel comfortable with the 3% of revenue growth for the next years.Finally, we are considering that the risk frequently mentioned on the news about the possibility that China could invade Taiwan is no significant. In Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a critical Apple's provider of the 3nm-chips. However, there would be several negative implications for China, like beginning a war with the US, or the possibility that Taiwan or the US destroy all TSM's assets, making the invasion a failure. Apparently, Warren Buffett is also assigning a low probability for such event since he has recently invested in TSM.In a nutshell, taking all these scenarios, we could establish a range for the Apple's intrinsic value between 135$ and 150$ per share. The stock price has been moving around that range in the last months, so it is likely that the market is considering the launch of the AR/VR products and the share buy-back's effect. Apparently, the market is not considering the Apple car as part of the valuation of the company either.Strategy with Apple stockApple stock is a hold for those investors who have invested in the company several years ago. A new investor who is thinking of buying Apple stock could consider that the current price ranging between $130 and $150 per share is the fair price. I would start a position when the price is between $130 and $140 per share, increasing my position gradually if the stock falls below that range.Given the uncertainty related to the monetary policy from the FED, the war between Ukraine and Russia, the zero-COVID policy in China, a recession in 2023, and so on, the stock might drop below the range of the intrinsic value previously mentioned giving an opportunity to new investors. Being aware of which is Apple's fair value will enable us to know if we should start a position or not right now. If we consider the stock to be expensive, we would have the incentives to wait for a significant fall in the stock price that may never come since we are not making a proper calculation of the intrinsic value of the company.Final ThoughtsSome analysts state that Apple stock is overvalued using multiples, comparing them with other competitors, and encouraging investors to wait for a significant decline in Apple stock, a fall that may not come. We need to be aware of the limitations of only using multiples like P/E, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, etc. since these multiples assume almost the same quality among all the comparables without considering factors that are only intrinsic to each company.In addition, most of these analyses do not include neither the launch of the AR/VR products in 2023 and most importantly, nor the share buy-back's effect which is a regular practice of the Apple's management in the last 10 years to deliver more value to long-term investors.A critical factor behind all the assumptions we've made in this article is the management's capabilities to deliver the highest value to the shareholders; Tim Cook has done an amazing job in all these years, strengthening Apple's market position, the innovative culture inside the company, the brand's reputation, the efficiency in the supply chain management and the capital allocation.Apple is a compounder since it is able to reinvest its cash flows at high returns; this combined with its strong buybacks year by year ends up boosting the intrinsic value. So most likely the current intrinsic value ranging between $130 and $150 per share would be higher in the next years as the company keeps delivering more value to its clients and investors.Thanks to a solid and consistent long-term strategy, we feel confident making projections for Apple's future performance, getting an approximation of Apple's intrinsic value ranging between $135 and $150 per share. Therefore, there could be an interesting opportunity to buy Apple stock when the price drops below that range.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961484715,"gmtCreate":1669021650637,"gmtModify":1676538140801,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Walt 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07:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Options Hint at Trouble Ahead With Bets Around $200","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161978634","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Tesla Inc. was one of the biggest laggards in the S&P 500 Index on Monday, and options traders are b","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla Inc. was one of the biggest laggards in the S&amp;P 500 Index on Monday, and options traders are betting the stock could drop further before the weekend.</p><p>A put contract with a Friday expiration and a strike price of $200 was the most-traded contract for Tesla on Monday and among the 15-most popular on US exchanges overall during the day. The bearish option in the electric carmaker implies the stock has at least another 5% to fall this week.</p><p>Tesla closed near $211 on Monday, down 1.5% from Friday’s close after lowering prices across its lineup in China and options investors are betting shares could fall below $200 by Friday, making the $200 put contract in the money -- or available for immediate profit -- before expiration.</p><p>The price of the contract jumped as much as 249% on Monday before settling only 9.9% higher as Tesla’s drop abated. Some 145,000 of the contracts changed hands.</p><p>Tesla shares have been on a dizzying roller-coaster ride this year, as jumpy investors reacted to a wide array of both positive and negative news -- ranging from supply problems, demand concerns, production disruptions in China, a cash-strapped consumer and the looming global recession, to the promise of a big boost to the EV industry from the Biden adminstration’s climate act.</p><p>Overall though, the bad news has started to overshadow the good, reflected in the stock’s 40% decline this year, compared to the S&amp;P 500 Index’s 20% drop over the same period. A three-for-one stock split, effective since late August, failed to deliver the expected boost despite Tesla’s popularity with mom-and-pop investors, while Elon Musk’s pending deal to buy social-media platform Twitter Inc. continues to be a drag on the EV maker’s share price.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Options Hint at Trouble Ahead With Bets Around $200</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Options Hint at Trouble Ahead With Bets Around $200\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-25 07:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-options-hint-trouble-ahead-183012397.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla Inc. was one of the biggest laggards in the S&P 500 Index on Monday, and options traders are betting the stock could drop further before the weekend.A put contract with a Friday expiration and a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-options-hint-trouble-ahead-183012397.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-options-hint-trouble-ahead-183012397.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161978634","content_text":"Tesla Inc. was one of the biggest laggards in the S&P 500 Index on Monday, and options traders are betting the stock could drop further before the weekend.A put contract with a Friday expiration and a strike price of $200 was the most-traded contract for Tesla on Monday and among the 15-most popular on US exchanges overall during the day. The bearish option in the electric carmaker implies the stock has at least another 5% to fall this week.Tesla closed near $211 on Monday, down 1.5% from Friday’s close after lowering prices across its lineup in China and options investors are betting shares could fall below $200 by Friday, making the $200 put contract in the money -- or available for immediate profit -- before expiration.The price of the contract jumped as much as 249% on Monday before settling only 9.9% higher as Tesla’s drop abated. Some 145,000 of the contracts changed hands.Tesla shares have been on a dizzying roller-coaster ride this year, as jumpy investors reacted to a wide array of both positive and negative news -- ranging from supply problems, demand concerns, production disruptions in China, a cash-strapped consumer and the looming global recession, to the promise of a big boost to the EV industry from the Biden adminstration’s climate act.Overall though, the bad news has started to overshadow the good, reflected in the stock’s 40% decline this year, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s 20% drop over the same period. A three-for-one stock split, effective since late August, failed to deliver the expected boost despite Tesla’s popularity with mom-and-pop investors, while Elon Musk’s pending deal to buy social-media platform Twitter Inc. continues to be a drag on the EV maker’s share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980614734,"gmtCreate":1665714474529,"gmtModify":1676537654018,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v 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21:10","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"What Cramer is watching Tuesday — chip troubles, Apple estimate raises, Disney price target cut","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274520372","media":"CNBC:","summary":"What Cramer is watching Tuesday — chip troubles, Apple estimate raises, Disney price target cut","content":"<div>\n<p>What Cramer is watching Tuesday — chip troubles, Apple estimate raises, Disney price target cut</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://t.co/sA8OJMPohJ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"redbox_twitter","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Cramer is watching Tuesday — chip troubles, Apple estimate raises, Disney price target 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{font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Cramer is watching Tuesday — chip troubles, Apple estimate raises, Disney price target cut\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 21:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://t.co/sA8OJMPohJ><strong>CNBC:</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What Cramer is watching Tuesday — chip troubles, Apple estimate raises, Disney price target cut</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://t.co/sA8OJMPohJ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 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cut","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917089483,"gmtCreate":1665386085743,"gmtModify":1676537597315,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917089483","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912800728,"gmtCreate":1664784560264,"gmtModify":1676537508054,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ggg","listText":"Ggg","text":"Ggg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912800728","repostId":"1159917391","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1159917391","pubTimestamp":1664810401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159917391?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 23:20","market":"other","language":"en","title":"My Current View Of The S&P 500 Index: October 2022 Edition (Technical Analysis)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159917391","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMy allocation remains the same.June lows have been taken out.Possible demand zone for SPY is ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>My allocation remains the same.</li><li>June lows have been taken out.</li><li>Possible demand zone for SPY is identified.</li></ul><p>In this month&#39;s article I outline why I am maintaining my October&#39;s allocation to the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) at 40% with the other 60% of my assets in cash. First let me review my pension plan performance in September. The market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 index, lost 9.34% for the month. As for my pension plan assets, I outperformed the index as my investment allocation only lost 3.53%. My investment objective of preserving my capital was not met as I did not make money. I did meet my second investment objective which is beating the S&amp;P 500 index. These results are the same as last month. Table 1 below shows my returns and allocations for the month of September and Table 2 below shows my returns for the past 12 months.</p><p>I have made changes to Table 2 below after I received a comment from a reader. Table 2 shows new columns to better (more accurately) reflect my investment results. The third column, $100K Hypo, is what my returns would be if I started my account with $100,000 in my first article of this series and followed the allocation recommendations from my articles. The fifth column, $100K SPY, shows the returns of just investing $100,000 and keeping it all allocated to SPY. The percentage returns in the last row show that my strategy returned a negative 8.23% for the last 12 months and simply investing in SPY would have returned a negative 15.49% for the last 12 months. Therefore, I have outperformed SPY for the last 12 months by 7.26%.</p><p>Table 1 - Investment Returns for September</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373c49c0cce6f026380f1818b9831bd0\" tg-width=\"489\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>author</p><p>Table 2 - Investment Returns Last 12 Months</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/838dad282bd83095f46d1caa3e8ddedd\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>To review the purpose of this series of articles, my retirement account only allows me to buy the following four ETFs: iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), and iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA). I can also have my money in cash. The question is how to decide where and when to allocate money to these various ETFs.</p><p>I use my moving average crossover system combined with relative strength charts to determine how to allocate my pension plan assets. My moving average crossover system uses the 6 month and the 10- month exponential moving averages to identify which of the four ETFs are in position to be bought. If the 6-month moving average is above the 10-month moving average, then the ETF is a buy. I call this setup being in bullish alignment. When the 6-month moving average is below the 10-month moving average the setup is referred to as a bearish alignment. When a bearish alignment happens, I don&#39;t want to hold that asset. See Chart 1 below for a long-term look at the S&amp;P 500 index using my moving average crossover system.</p><p>Chart 1 - Monthly SP 500 Index with 6/10 Moving Averages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7952c779df2062d82c637eb58d33bfba\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>You can see that the moving average crossover system provided some excellent long term buy and sell signals that would have allowed investors to capture long duration moves in the index; while avoiding costly drawdowns. Avoiding these costly drawdowns allows me to meet the objective of capital reservation.</p><p>I employ this strategy because I do not want to experience a large drawdown with my pension assets. During the 2008-2009 market crash many people didn&#39;t even look at their retirement statements because they were afraid of what they would find. I submit that if those people would have used a market strategy like what I outline in this series of articles, they would have been able to avoid much of the decline during the bear market and consequently would have had less emotional stress during that time period.</p><p>The following charts show the current status of the ETFs that I am allowed to buy in my retirement account.</p><p>Chart 2 - Monthly SPY with 6/10 Moving Averages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db01354ec47cafb30754a83fe2e2220\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Chart 2 shows that SPY declined over 9% in September. It was a tough month for bulls. SPY remains in bearish alignment. Volume did increase which is bearish. The SPY candle is a very bearish one closing at the low of the month. SPY also closed below the June lows. There is nothing bullish about that development. As I look at Chart 2, I see a potential demand zone where bulls could step in, at the 320 level. The demand zone is outlined in blue. Right now, things don&#39;t look good for SPY. We will see where we go from here. For October, I am staying with my allocation of 40% to SPY. I will look to increase my exposure to SPY once SPY closes above its 10-month moving average which is in red.</p><p>Chart 3 - Monthly IWM with 6/10 Moving Averages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1017d71508cf02631b0556d24fed337\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Chart 3 shows that small cap stocks fell hard losing 9.66% in September. IWM remains in bearish alignment and like SPY in Chart 2, IWM&#39;s candle for the month was bearish. Volume increased which is also bearish. If you&#39;re a bull on IWM, a positive sign is that IWM held the June lows. It&#39;s the only ETF in this article that was able to do so. That green line on the chart has held so far. The longer IWM remains above the green line, the more valid that level of support becomes. The next bullish development would be IWM closing above the blue 6-month moving average.</p><p>Chart 4 - Monthly IWM: SPY Relative Strength</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df4b4c8b3578cf9bc420eee96cbcc7ea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Chart 4 still shows that the IWM: SPY ratio is perhaps bottoming. In September the ratio ticked down slightly as IWM underperformed SPY. The low level seems to be holding which is bullish if you are an IWM investor. Despite that bullish feature, the ratio remains in bearish alignment. While the ratio is in bearish alignment the two averages seem to be flattening out and in the case of the blue 6-month moving average, turning higher. That can be seen as a bullish development. Before I consider allocating money to IWM I need to see the ratio get above the red ten-month moving average. This could happen soon.</p><p>Chart 5 - Monthly EFA with 6/10 Moving Averages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e0595d8a79eafdaec5968ca027ea0ca\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Chart 5 shows that EFA lost 9.22% in September. It was a bearish month with a bearish candle closing just off its lows for the month. Like SPY and IWM, EFA traded on higher volume. EFA remains in bearish alignment. Looking at Chart 5 I don&#39;t see much in the way of support for EFA. EFA could test the COVID lows. As I wrote before, EFA has some work to do before I would consider allocating money to that ETF. I need to see EFA close above the red ten-month moving average.</p><p>Chart 6 - Monthly EFA: SPY Relative Strength</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4285ac4e7a7e0b32e169a216dc240c5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There is nothing new to report for Chart 6. The EFA: SPY ratio ticked up a bit in September. The ratio remains at its lows. When looking at a price chart and you see price move from the upper lefthand side to the lower righthand side of the chart, that is the textbook definition of a downtrend. I need to see this ratio close above the red 10 month moving average before I allocate money to EFA over SPY.</p><p>Chart 7 - Monthly EFA: IWM Relative Strength</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41c9d121f8b625d2540babbd062e5de\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Chart 7 shows that EFA outperformed IWM in September by 0.49%. The ratio has flipped from being in bullish alignment to now being in bearish alignment. The recent series of higher highs and higher lows has been broken. I will continue to watch this chart to see how events unfold.</p><p>Chart 8 - Monthly AGG with 6/10 Moving Averages</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38c9db5314701a1b59f2f1645dfdc458\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Chart 8 shows that AGG lost 4.14% in September. It was a bad month for AGG investors. AGG remains in bearish alignment, lost the green line of support, and the June lows. AGG is now at levels last seen in 2018. AGG is now down over 16% from its highs in August 2020.</p><p>Chart 9 - Monthly AGG: SPY Relative Strength</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1d14158921e425b7a38cabe3c1851b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The AGG: SPY ratio in Chart 9 gained 5.62% as AGG outperformed SPY in September. The ratio is on the cusp of being in bullish alignment. Both moving averages are trending higher. The ratio is trying to make a series of higher highs and higher lows. We will see if it succeeds.</p><p>In summary, all the ETFs I covered in this article lost money in September. AGG performed the best by losing the least for the month. All the price charts are in bearish alignment. All the price charts are now below their June lows. I see no reason to change my allocation for October. I am keeping my allocation of 40% in SPY and 60% in cash. That may be too conservative, and I can live with that. It could also be too aggressive. We will see. I wrote last month that &#34;… the bear market may have been made as every ETF remains above the June lows. I don&#39;t know.&#34; Well, that proved to be incorrect. There may be more downside ahead for the markets. If SPY closes above its blue 6-month moving average in October, I will increase my allocation to SPY and reduce my allocation to cash. We are now in the unfavorable months for the stock market; June-October. I just try to follow price and the trend. Right now, the trend for equities and bonds remains down. I will monitor the markets for the month of October and then reallocate, if necessary, at the end of the month.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My Current View Of The S&P 500 Index: October 2022 Edition (Technical Analysis)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy Current View Of The S&P 500 Index: October 2022 Edition (Technical Analysis)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544236-my-current-view-sp500-index-october-2022-edition><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMy allocation remains the same.June lows have been taken out.Possible demand zone for SPY is identified.In this month's article I outline why I am maintaining my October's allocation to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544236-my-current-view-sp500-index-october-2022-edition\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544236-my-current-view-sp500-index-october-2022-edition","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159917391","content_text":"SummaryMy allocation remains the same.June lows have been taken out.Possible demand zone for SPY is identified.In this month's article I outline why I am maintaining my October's allocation to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) at 40% with the other 60% of my assets in cash. First let me review my pension plan performance in September. The market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, lost 9.34% for the month. As for my pension plan assets, I outperformed the index as my investment allocation only lost 3.53%. My investment objective of preserving my capital was not met as I did not make money. I did meet my second investment objective which is beating the S&P 500 index. These results are the same as last month. Table 1 below shows my returns and allocations for the month of September and Table 2 below shows my returns for the past 12 months.I have made changes to Table 2 below after I received a comment from a reader. Table 2 shows new columns to better (more accurately) reflect my investment results. The third column, $100K Hypo, is what my returns would be if I started my account with $100,000 in my first article of this series and followed the allocation recommendations from my articles. The fifth column, $100K SPY, shows the returns of just investing $100,000 and keeping it all allocated to SPY. The percentage returns in the last row show that my strategy returned a negative 8.23% for the last 12 months and simply investing in SPY would have returned a negative 15.49% for the last 12 months. Therefore, I have outperformed SPY for the last 12 months by 7.26%.Table 1 - Investment Returns for SeptemberauthorTable 2 - Investment Returns Last 12 MonthsAuthorTo review the purpose of this series of articles, my retirement account only allows me to buy the following four ETFs: iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), and iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA). I can also have my money in cash. The question is how to decide where and when to allocate money to these various ETFs.I use my moving average crossover system combined with relative strength charts to determine how to allocate my pension plan assets. My moving average crossover system uses the 6 month and the 10- month exponential moving averages to identify which of the four ETFs are in position to be bought. If the 6-month moving average is above the 10-month moving average, then the ETF is a buy. I call this setup being in bullish alignment. When the 6-month moving average is below the 10-month moving average the setup is referred to as a bearish alignment. When a bearish alignment happens, I don't want to hold that asset. See Chart 1 below for a long-term look at the S&P 500 index using my moving average crossover system.Chart 1 - Monthly SP 500 Index with 6/10 Moving AveragesYou can see that the moving average crossover system provided some excellent long term buy and sell signals that would have allowed investors to capture long duration moves in the index; while avoiding costly drawdowns. Avoiding these costly drawdowns allows me to meet the objective of capital reservation.I employ this strategy because I do not want to experience a large drawdown with my pension assets. During the 2008-2009 market crash many people didn't even look at their retirement statements because they were afraid of what they would find. I submit that if those people would have used a market strategy like what I outline in this series of articles, they would have been able to avoid much of the decline during the bear market and consequently would have had less emotional stress during that time period.The following charts show the current status of the ETFs that I am allowed to buy in my retirement account.Chart 2 - Monthly SPY with 6/10 Moving AveragesChart 2 shows that SPY declined over 9% in September. It was a tough month for bulls. SPY remains in bearish alignment. Volume did increase which is bearish. The SPY candle is a very bearish one closing at the low of the month. SPY also closed below the June lows. There is nothing bullish about that development. As I look at Chart 2, I see a potential demand zone where bulls could step in, at the 320 level. The demand zone is outlined in blue. Right now, things don't look good for SPY. We will see where we go from here. For October, I am staying with my allocation of 40% to SPY. I will look to increase my exposure to SPY once SPY closes above its 10-month moving average which is in red.Chart 3 - Monthly IWM with 6/10 Moving AveragesChart 3 shows that small cap stocks fell hard losing 9.66% in September. IWM remains in bearish alignment and like SPY in Chart 2, IWM's candle for the month was bearish. Volume increased which is also bearish. If you're a bull on IWM, a positive sign is that IWM held the June lows. It's the only ETF in this article that was able to do so. That green line on the chart has held so far. The longer IWM remains above the green line, the more valid that level of support becomes. The next bullish development would be IWM closing above the blue 6-month moving average.Chart 4 - Monthly IWM: SPY Relative StrengthChart 4 still shows that the IWM: SPY ratio is perhaps bottoming. In September the ratio ticked down slightly as IWM underperformed SPY. The low level seems to be holding which is bullish if you are an IWM investor. Despite that bullish feature, the ratio remains in bearish alignment. While the ratio is in bearish alignment the two averages seem to be flattening out and in the case of the blue 6-month moving average, turning higher. That can be seen as a bullish development. Before I consider allocating money to IWM I need to see the ratio get above the red ten-month moving average. This could happen soon.Chart 5 - Monthly EFA with 6/10 Moving AveragesChart 5 shows that EFA lost 9.22% in September. It was a bearish month with a bearish candle closing just off its lows for the month. Like SPY and IWM, EFA traded on higher volume. EFA remains in bearish alignment. Looking at Chart 5 I don't see much in the way of support for EFA. EFA could test the COVID lows. As I wrote before, EFA has some work to do before I would consider allocating money to that ETF. I need to see EFA close above the red ten-month moving average.Chart 6 - Monthly EFA: SPY Relative StrengthThere is nothing new to report for Chart 6. The EFA: SPY ratio ticked up a bit in September. The ratio remains at its lows. When looking at a price chart and you see price move from the upper lefthand side to the lower righthand side of the chart, that is the textbook definition of a downtrend. I need to see this ratio close above the red 10 month moving average before I allocate money to EFA over SPY.Chart 7 - Monthly EFA: IWM Relative StrengthChart 7 shows that EFA outperformed IWM in September by 0.49%. The ratio has flipped from being in bullish alignment to now being in bearish alignment. The recent series of higher highs and higher lows has been broken. I will continue to watch this chart to see how events unfold.Chart 8 - Monthly AGG with 6/10 Moving AveragesChart 8 shows that AGG lost 4.14% in September. It was a bad month for AGG investors. AGG remains in bearish alignment, lost the green line of support, and the June lows. AGG is now at levels last seen in 2018. AGG is now down over 16% from its highs in August 2020.Chart 9 - Monthly AGG: SPY Relative StrengthThe AGG: SPY ratio in Chart 9 gained 5.62% as AGG outperformed SPY in September. The ratio is on the cusp of being in bullish alignment. Both moving averages are trending higher. The ratio is trying to make a series of higher highs and higher lows. We will see if it succeeds.In summary, all the ETFs I covered in this article lost money in September. AGG performed the best by losing the least for the month. All the price charts are in bearish alignment. All the price charts are now below their June lows. I see no reason to change my allocation for October. I am keeping my allocation of 40% in SPY and 60% in cash. That may be too conservative, and I can live with that. It could also be too aggressive. We will see. I wrote last month that \"… the bear market may have been made as every ETF remains above the June lows. I don't know.\" Well, that proved to be incorrect. There may be more downside ahead for the markets. If SPY closes above its blue 6-month moving average in October, I will increase my allocation to SPY and reduce my allocation to cash. We are now in the unfavorable months for the stock market; June-October. I just try to follow price and the trend. Right now, the trend for equities and bonds remains down. I will monitor the markets for the month of October and then reallocate, if necessary, at the end of the month.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":313021850,"gmtCreate":1611640414270,"gmtModify":1704861599385,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla will definitely continue to rise.. next target 1000","listText":"Tesla will definitely continue to rise.. next target 1000","text":"Tesla will definitely continue to rise.. next target 1000","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f6582faed184a12c072f5f03e394c6","width":"1125","height":"2712"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/313021850","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368840145,"gmtCreate":1614311313687,"gmtModify":1704770502611,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>650 i will add more","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>650 i will add more","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$650 i will add more","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaca35855d3cbe9d540472d48c3efaa5","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368840145","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196245143,"gmtCreate":1621063501682,"gmtModify":1704352630958,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>Its good to buy some index etf","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>Its good to buy some index etf","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$Its good to buy some index etf","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411a8949e7e2b4a83f94d1703b2059dc","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196245143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886592659,"gmtCreate":1631602980271,"gmtModify":1676530587135,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$TSLA 20210917 675.0 PUT(TSLA)$</a>Coming to an end..full premium received!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$TSLA 20210917 675.0 PUT(TSLA)$</a>Coming to an end..full premium received!","text":"$TSLA 20210917 675.0 PUT(TSLA)$Coming to an end..full premium received!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77edfbd99cbf3df41da372b2c31d05f5","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886592659","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578739292709085","authorId":"3578739292709085","authorIdStr":"3578739292709085","name":"EdLien","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d85e297c27dc8237d9c6b5d0690f81","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3578739292709085"},"content":"Nice, Let it Expires by itself, Wont hit 675","text":"Nice, Let it Expires by itself, Wont hit 675","html":"Nice, Let it Expires by itself, Wont hit 675"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359685614,"gmtCreate":1616393042438,"gmtModify":1704793426078,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>The next 10x stock?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>The next 10x stock?","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$The next 10x stock?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/620724cb7f20f928ddd22164f647d0df","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359685614","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939996731,"gmtCreate":1662038723026,"gmtModify":1676536692237,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Qqq","listText":"Qqq","text":"Qqq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939996731","repostId":"1160870826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160870826","pubTimestamp":1662045526,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160870826?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Billionaires Have Been Buying These 7 Stocks as the Market Plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160870826","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"KEY POINTSThe broad-based S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years.Rather than being","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>KEY POINTS</p><ul><li>The broad-based S&amp;P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years.</li><li>Rather than being chased to the sideline, billionaire investors have stood their ground and put their money to work.</li><li>These seven stocks have been the apple of select billionaires&#39; eyes.</li></ul><p>Although you probably don&#39;t need the reminder, it&#39;s been a rough year on Wall Street. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 produced its worst first-half return since 1970. Meanwhile, the growth-centric Nasdaq Composite plunged 34% on a peak-to-trough basis since hitting its all-time closing high in November. Everything from weak economic growth and historically high inflation to Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine further upsetting the global energy supply chain has contributed to this challenging year.</p><p>Yet, in spite of the stock market plunging throughout much of the year, billionaire investors have stood their ground. Billionaire money managers are well aware that every notable pullback in the market has proved to be a buying opportunity over the long run.</p><p>Based on recent 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, it&#39;s become clear that billionaire fund managers have been buyers as the market plunges. Here&#39;s what seven prominent billionaires have been buying.</p><h3>1. Paul Singer: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal Holdings</a></h3><p>Billionaire activist investor Paul Singer of Elliott Investment Management has been a busy bee in 2022. Most notably, he&#39;s taken a roughly $2 billion stake in fintech stock PayPal Holdings (PYPL), which was disclosed by PayPal in its second-quarter earnings release.</p><p>What&#39;s interesting about this position is that Singer often invests in struggling companies. Although PayPal&#39;s share price has taken a big hit as pandemic-related valuations deflate, PayPal&#39;s operating performance shows a company that&#39;s clearly not hurting. Even with U.S. gross domestic product falling in back-to-back quarters, PayPal has maintained double-digit total payment volume growth on a constant-currency basis.</p><p>More importantly, user engagement hasn&#39;t slowed down. When 2020 came to a close, the average active account completed just shy of 41 transactions over the trailing year. As of June 30, 2022, this average active account hadcompleted nearly 49 transactions over the trailing 12 months.  With engagement trends headed in the right direction and digital payment growth still in its very early innings, I&#39;d be surprised if Singer&#39;s investment ultimately ended up in the red.</p><h3>2. Philippe Laffont: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPST\">Upstart Holdings</a></h3><p>Philippe Laffont may not be a household name among billionaire money managers, but he successfully oversees Coatue Management, a hedge fund with almost $8.3 billion in assets under management. In the latest quarter, Laffont added almost $75 million in shares of cloud-based lending platform Upstart Holdings (UPST).</p><p>Upstart aims to completely turn the traditional loan-vetting process on its head. It uses artificial intelligence (AI) to completely automate and approve about three-quarters of all loans processed. Not only is this saving the roughly six dozen financial institutions Upstart is partnered with time and money, but it&#39;s giving loan applicants who might otherwise be denied through the traditional vetting process an opportunity. Upstart-vetted loans have produced similar loan delinquency rates as traditional loans, despite a lower average credit score for Upstart-approved applicants.</p><p>The other lure for Upstart is its potential for expansion. Until last year, Upstart almost exclusively focused on personal loans. With the company now expanding into auto loans and small business loans, its addressable market has increased tenfold.</p><h3>3. Warren Buffett: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental Petroleum</a></h3><p>The Oracle of Omaha, who&#39;s been CEO of Berkshire Hathaway since 1965, probably needs no introduction. Among the16 stocks Warren Buffett has purchased this year, none has raised more eyebrows than oil stock Occidental Petroleum. Berkshire has acquired nearly 188.4 million shares of Occidental this year, as of Aug. 8.</p><p>Why Occidental Petroleum? The best guess is that Buffett strongly believes crude oil and natural gas prices will remain elevated for years to come. This is a forecast that can certainly be supported by reduced capital investments in the wake of the pandemic, as well as Russia&#39;s aforementioned invasion of Ukraine. With no quick fixes to global supply woes, oil and natural gas could very easily support above-average spot prices for years.</p><p>But what makes Occidental such an odd Buffett stockis its balance sheet. The Oracle of Omaha normally buys stakes in businesses with strong brand names, exceptional leadership, and rock-solid balance sheets. Occidental is more highly levered than most integrated oil and gas companies. In other words, this is a riskier investment than we&#39;re used to seeing from Buffett.</p><h3>4. Steve Cohen: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike Holdings</a></h3><p>Billionaire Steve Cohen, who&#39;s known just as much for owning baseball&#39;s New York Mets as he is for running Point72 Asset Management, has been an active buyer of cybersecurity stock CrowdStrike Holdings as the market plunges. Cohen&#39;s fund bought close to 820,000 shares of CrowdStrike during the second quarter.</p><p>Aside from the fact that cybersecurity solutions have evolved into a basic necessity service in any economic environment, what allows CrowdStrike to stand out is its AI-driven Falcon platform. Falcon oversees about 1 trillion events daily and has proved superior to the on-premises competition at identifying and responding to potential threats.</p><p>Although CrowdStrike has had no trouble growing its subscriber base over the years, what&#39;s far more impressive is how the company has been able to encourage existing clients to spend more. A little over five years ago, just 9% of the company&#39;s clients had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. As of the end of April 2022, 71% of existing clients had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. This is CrowdStrike&#39;s not-so-subtle key to superior operating margins and its amazing revenue retention rate.</p><h3>5. Jim Simons: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a></h3><p>Billionaire Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies has thousands upon thousands of positions. However, cloud-based e-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP 0.93%) became one of Renaissance&#39;s largest positions during the second quarter, with a greater than 14-million-share aggregate buy.</p><p>Despite shares coming under heavy selling pressure due to the company&#39;s nosebleed valuation and recent weakness in retail sales as a whole, Shopify looks like a giant in the making. Aided by the pandemic, the gross merchandise value transacted on Shopify&#39;s platforms (as of the June-ended quarter) has grown by an annual average of 50% over the past three years.  What&#39;s more, the company believes it has a $153 billion addressable market just with small businesses. This doesn&#39;t even factor in the inroads the company has made with larger companies.</p><p>Innovation should also be key for Shopify&#39;s long-term outlook. The introduction of Shop Pay, a buy now, pay later service designed to help merchants serve more customers, should benefit nicely during long-winded periods of economic expansion.</p><h3>6. Ray Dalio: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a></h3><p>Bridgewater Associates&#39; billionaire money manager Ray Dalio has also been an active buyer. Dalio chose to pile into CVS Health (CVS -0.66%) as the market plunged. Bridgewater bought close to 1.94 million shares during the second quarter, which increased the fund&#39;s stake by 159% from the March-ended quarter.</p><p>The beauty of healthcare stocks is that they&#39;re defensive. People can&#39;t control when they get sick, which means there&#39;s always demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services.</p><p>On a more company-specific basis, CVS Health has benefited from its vertical integration. Its acquisition of health insurer Aetna in 2018 lifted its organic growth rate, provided ample cost synergies, and gave more than 20 million insured Aetna members a reason to stay within the CVS Health network.</p><p>Additionally, CVS has been reaping the rewards of its HealthHUB health clinics. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers have demonstrated they&#39;re eager for quick solutions to minor illnesses and injuries, as well as supplemental care for chronic conditions. The roughly 1,500 HealthHUBs CVS operates are facilitating these interactions, which have the potential to boost customer loyalty and drive repeat visits.</p><h3>7. Jeff Yass: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a></h3><p>Last but not least, billionaire Jeff Yass of Susquehanna International has been buying FAANG stock Amazon as the market plunges. Susquehanna added close to 6.6 million shares of Amazon during the second quarter, which increased its stake to approximately 15.2 million shares.</p><p>Although Amazon is best known for its dominant online marketplace, which is estimated to bring in 40% of U.S. retail sales in 2022, per eMarketer, it&#39;s the company&#39;s considerably higher-margin ancillary operations that make it such an ideal buy.</p><p>For instance, Amazon&#39;s online marketplace has helped attract more than 200 million global Prime subscribers. With almost $35 billion in annual run-rate sales from subscription services, Amazon is able to divert plenty of capital to its fast-growing logistics network and other supercharged growth projects.</p><p>However, Amazon&#39;s future is undeniably linked to cloud infrastructure segment Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS brought in 31% of cloud spending during the second quarter, according to estimates from Canalys.  More importantly, AWS is responsible for generating the bulk of Amazon&#39;s operating cash flow despite accounting for just a sixth of the company&#39;s net sales. As AWS grows into a larger percentage of total sales, Amazon&#39;s cash flow can soar.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Billionaires Have Been Buying These 7 Stocks as the Market Plunges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillionaires Have Been Buying These 7 Stocks as the Market Plunges\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/01/billionaires-buying-7-stocks-as-the-market-plunges/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe broad-based S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years.Rather than being chased to the sideline, billionaire investors have stood their ground and put their money to work....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/01/billionaires-buying-7-stocks-as-the-market-plunges/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CVS":"西维斯健康","AMZN":"亚马逊","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","PYPL":"PayPal","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","OXY":"西方石油"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/01/billionaires-buying-7-stocks-as-the-market-plunges/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160870826","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe broad-based S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years.Rather than being chased to the sideline, billionaire investors have stood their ground and put their money to work.These seven stocks have been the apple of select billionaires' eyes.Although you probably don't need the reminder, it's been a rough year on Wall Street. The benchmark S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return since 1970. Meanwhile, the growth-centric Nasdaq Composite plunged 34% on a peak-to-trough basis since hitting its all-time closing high in November. Everything from weak economic growth and historically high inflation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine further upsetting the global energy supply chain has contributed to this challenging year.Yet, in spite of the stock market plunging throughout much of the year, billionaire investors have stood their ground. Billionaire money managers are well aware that every notable pullback in the market has proved to be a buying opportunity over the long run.Based on recent 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, it's become clear that billionaire fund managers have been buyers as the market plunges. Here's what seven prominent billionaires have been buying.1. Paul Singer: PayPal HoldingsBillionaire activist investor Paul Singer of Elliott Investment Management has been a busy bee in 2022. Most notably, he's taken a roughly $2 billion stake in fintech stock PayPal Holdings (PYPL), which was disclosed by PayPal in its second-quarter earnings release.What's interesting about this position is that Singer often invests in struggling companies. Although PayPal's share price has taken a big hit as pandemic-related valuations deflate, PayPal's operating performance shows a company that's clearly not hurting. Even with U.S. gross domestic product falling in back-to-back quarters, PayPal has maintained double-digit total payment volume growth on a constant-currency basis.More importantly, user engagement hasn't slowed down. When 2020 came to a close, the average active account completed just shy of 41 transactions over the trailing year. As of June 30, 2022, this average active account hadcompleted nearly 49 transactions over the trailing 12 months.  With engagement trends headed in the right direction and digital payment growth still in its very early innings, I'd be surprised if Singer's investment ultimately ended up in the red.2. Philippe Laffont: Upstart HoldingsPhilippe Laffont may not be a household name among billionaire money managers, but he successfully oversees Coatue Management, a hedge fund with almost $8.3 billion in assets under management. In the latest quarter, Laffont added almost $75 million in shares of cloud-based lending platform Upstart Holdings (UPST).Upstart aims to completely turn the traditional loan-vetting process on its head. It uses artificial intelligence (AI) to completely automate and approve about three-quarters of all loans processed. Not only is this saving the roughly six dozen financial institutions Upstart is partnered with time and money, but it's giving loan applicants who might otherwise be denied through the traditional vetting process an opportunity. Upstart-vetted loans have produced similar loan delinquency rates as traditional loans, despite a lower average credit score for Upstart-approved applicants.The other lure for Upstart is its potential for expansion. Until last year, Upstart almost exclusively focused on personal loans. With the company now expanding into auto loans and small business loans, its addressable market has increased tenfold.3. Warren Buffett: Occidental PetroleumThe Oracle of Omaha, who's been CEO of Berkshire Hathaway since 1965, probably needs no introduction. Among the16 stocks Warren Buffett has purchased this year, none has raised more eyebrows than oil stock Occidental Petroleum. Berkshire has acquired nearly 188.4 million shares of Occidental this year, as of Aug. 8.Why Occidental Petroleum? The best guess is that Buffett strongly believes crude oil and natural gas prices will remain elevated for years to come. This is a forecast that can certainly be supported by reduced capital investments in the wake of the pandemic, as well as Russia's aforementioned invasion of Ukraine. With no quick fixes to global supply woes, oil and natural gas could very easily support above-average spot prices for years.But what makes Occidental such an odd Buffett stockis its balance sheet. The Oracle of Omaha normally buys stakes in businesses with strong brand names, exceptional leadership, and rock-solid balance sheets. Occidental is more highly levered than most integrated oil and gas companies. In other words, this is a riskier investment than we're used to seeing from Buffett.4. Steve Cohen: CrowdStrike HoldingsBillionaire Steve Cohen, who's known just as much for owning baseball's New York Mets as he is for running Point72 Asset Management, has been an active buyer of cybersecurity stock CrowdStrike Holdings as the market plunges. Cohen's fund bought close to 820,000 shares of CrowdStrike during the second quarter.Aside from the fact that cybersecurity solutions have evolved into a basic necessity service in any economic environment, what allows CrowdStrike to stand out is its AI-driven Falcon platform. Falcon oversees about 1 trillion events daily and has proved superior to the on-premises competition at identifying and responding to potential threats.Although CrowdStrike has had no trouble growing its subscriber base over the years, what's far more impressive is how the company has been able to encourage existing clients to spend more. A little over five years ago, just 9% of the company's clients had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. As of the end of April 2022, 71% of existing clients had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. This is CrowdStrike's not-so-subtle key to superior operating margins and its amazing revenue retention rate.5. Jim Simons: ShopifyBillionaire Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies has thousands upon thousands of positions. However, cloud-based e-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP 0.93%) became one of Renaissance's largest positions during the second quarter, with a greater than 14-million-share aggregate buy.Despite shares coming under heavy selling pressure due to the company's nosebleed valuation and recent weakness in retail sales as a whole, Shopify looks like a giant in the making. Aided by the pandemic, the gross merchandise value transacted on Shopify's platforms (as of the June-ended quarter) has grown by an annual average of 50% over the past three years.  What's more, the company believes it has a $153 billion addressable market just with small businesses. This doesn't even factor in the inroads the company has made with larger companies.Innovation should also be key for Shopify's long-term outlook. The introduction of Shop Pay, a buy now, pay later service designed to help merchants serve more customers, should benefit nicely during long-winded periods of economic expansion.6. Ray Dalio: CVS HealthBridgewater Associates' billionaire money manager Ray Dalio has also been an active buyer. Dalio chose to pile into CVS Health (CVS -0.66%) as the market plunged. Bridgewater bought close to 1.94 million shares during the second quarter, which increased the fund's stake by 159% from the March-ended quarter.The beauty of healthcare stocks is that they're defensive. People can't control when they get sick, which means there's always demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services.On a more company-specific basis, CVS Health has benefited from its vertical integration. Its acquisition of health insurer Aetna in 2018 lifted its organic growth rate, provided ample cost synergies, and gave more than 20 million insured Aetna members a reason to stay within the CVS Health network.Additionally, CVS has been reaping the rewards of its HealthHUB health clinics. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers have demonstrated they're eager for quick solutions to minor illnesses and injuries, as well as supplemental care for chronic conditions. The roughly 1,500 HealthHUBs CVS operates are facilitating these interactions, which have the potential to boost customer loyalty and drive repeat visits.7. Jeff Yass: AmazonLast but not least, billionaire Jeff Yass of Susquehanna International has been buying FAANG stock Amazon as the market plunges. Susquehanna added close to 6.6 million shares of Amazon during the second quarter, which increased its stake to approximately 15.2 million shares.Although Amazon is best known for its dominant online marketplace, which is estimated to bring in 40% of U.S. retail sales in 2022, per eMarketer, it's the company's considerably higher-margin ancillary operations that make it such an ideal buy.For instance, Amazon's online marketplace has helped attract more than 200 million global Prime subscribers. With almost $35 billion in annual run-rate sales from subscription services, Amazon is able to divert plenty of capital to its fast-growing logistics network and other supercharged growth projects.However, Amazon's future is undeniably linked to cloud infrastructure segment Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS brought in 31% of cloud spending during the second quarter, according to estimates from Canalys.  More importantly, AWS is responsible for generating the bulk of Amazon's operating cash flow despite accounting for just a sixth of the company's net sales. As AWS grows into a larger percentage of total sales, Amazon's cash flow can soar.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026694965,"gmtCreate":1653361508057,"gmtModify":1676535268455,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crash is coming?","listText":"Crash is coming?","text":"Crash is coming?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026694965","repostId":"1144874449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144874449","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653360627,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144874449?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-24 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq Composite Futures Fell 1.5%, S&P 500 Futures Slipped 0.86%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144874449","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 158 points, or 0.48%, while the S&P 500 futures fell 0.86%","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 158 points, or 0.48%, while the S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.86% and Nasdaq Composite futures fell 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d113bcbeae81a8b0f04acfd15ff052\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"244\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>U.S. central bankers broadly back two more big interest rate hikes in June and July, but what happens after is a matter of intense internal debate that turns in large part on differing views of how price pressures will play out in months ahead.</p><p>To Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, once the Federal Reserve has delivered half-of-a-percentage point rate hikes as Chair Jerome Powell has signaled, &#34;a pause in September might make sense.&#34;</p><p>&#34;I think a lot of it will depend on the ground dynamics that we are starting to see&#34; both of the inflation the Fed is trying to contain and the impact of higher interest rates on the economy, he told the Rotary Club of Atlanta on Monday.</p><p>While there is a risk the central bank may have to be more aggressive, he said, &#34;I&#39;m an optimist and I&#39;m assuming inflation will have started to definitively move&#34; lower by then.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq Composite Futures Fell 1.5%, S&P 500 Futures Slipped 0.86%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq Composite Futures Fell 1.5%, S&P 500 Futures Slipped 0.86%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-24 10:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 158 points, or 0.48%, while the S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.86% and Nasdaq Composite futures fell 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d113bcbeae81a8b0f04acfd15ff052\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"244\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>U.S. central bankers broadly back two more big interest rate hikes in June and July, but what happens after is a matter of intense internal debate that turns in large part on differing views of how price pressures will play out in months ahead.</p><p>To Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, once the Federal Reserve has delivered half-of-a-percentage point rate hikes as Chair Jerome Powell has signaled, &#34;a pause in September might make sense.&#34;</p><p>&#34;I think a lot of it will depend on the ground dynamics that we are starting to see&#34; both of the inflation the Fed is trying to contain and the impact of higher interest rates on the economy, he told the Rotary Club of Atlanta on Monday.</p><p>While there is a risk the central bank may have to be more aggressive, he said, &#34;I&#39;m an optimist and I&#39;m assuming inflation will have started to definitively move&#34; lower by then.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144874449","content_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 158 points, or 0.48%, while the S&P 500 futures fell 0.86% and Nasdaq Composite futures fell 1.5%.U.S. central bankers broadly back two more big interest rate hikes in June and July, but what happens after is a matter of intense internal debate that turns in large part on differing views of how price pressures will play out in months ahead.To Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, once the Federal Reserve has delivered half-of-a-percentage point rate hikes as Chair Jerome Powell has signaled, \"a pause in September might make sense.\"\"I think a lot of it will depend on the ground dynamics that we are starting to see\" both of the inflation the Fed is trying to contain and the impact of higher interest rates on the economy, he told the Rotary Club of Atlanta on Monday.While there is a risk the central bank may have to be more aggressive, he said, \"I'm an optimist and I'm assuming inflation will have started to definitively move\" lower by then.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061472776,"gmtCreate":1651672453224,"gmtModify":1676534946126,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>DCA and win in long run","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>DCA and win in long run","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$DCA and win in long run","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc70008a16f85eec2383390c94a401f4","width":"1284","height":"2778"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061472776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839833448,"gmtCreate":1629134820784,"gmtModify":1676529942782,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Im still buying the dips","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Im still buying the dips","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Im still buying the dips","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbc4ac22f0a87e23eee204b27fcc20b2","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839833448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087945669,"gmtCreate":1650945189446,"gmtModify":1676534821249,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>Will u make a different in 5 yrs time?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>Will u make a different in 5 yrs time?","text":"$Digital Turbine(APPS)$Will u make a different in 5 yrs time?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/96f74293b91165bd0d11364e99fb5532","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087945669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156824488,"gmtCreate":1625213141344,"gmtModify":1703738465625,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>Undervalued stock","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>Undervalued stock","text":"$Digital Turbine(APPS)$Undervalued stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a2a72dba5ebe10fe0c940c932df8b6","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156824488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343838968,"gmtCreate":1617699968154,"gmtModify":1704701930441,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Almost there..pushhhh","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Almost there..pushhhh","text":"$AMD(AMD)$Almost there..pushhhh","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c707021264da39495f70d81eb252f3f","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343838968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323164899,"gmtCreate":1615312053711,"gmtModify":1704781072478,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks like Tesla is back","listText":"Looks like Tesla is back","text":"Looks like Tesla is back","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3321bbde36f14289e44ca32d33a601f3","width":"1125","height":"3007"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323164899","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":34,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312249580,"gmtCreate":1612158553340,"gmtModify":1704867525398,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article","listText":"Good article","text":"Good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312249580","repostId":"1106733795","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106733795","pubTimestamp":1612156953,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106733795?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-01 13:22","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Xiaomi sues U.S. to overturn Chinese military designation and share investment ban","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106733795","media":"cnbc","summary":"GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese smartphone makerXiaomihas sued the U.S., seeking to to be removed from Wa","content":"<div>\n<p>GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese smartphone makerXiaomihas sued the U.S., seeking to to be removed from Washington’s blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies, which prevents American investors from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/xiaomi-sues-us-to-overturn-chinese-military-designation-investment-ban.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomi sues U.S. to overturn Chinese military designation and share investment ban</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomi sues U.S. to overturn Chinese military designation and share investment ban\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-01 13:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/xiaomi-sues-us-to-overturn-chinese-military-designation-investment-ban.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese smartphone makerXiaomihas sued the U.S., seeking to to be removed from Washington’s blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies, which prevents American investors from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/xiaomi-sues-us-to-overturn-chinese-military-designation-investment-ban.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df686d3a6ca977e8c6841905eb7e18c","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/xiaomi-sues-us-to-overturn-chinese-military-designation-investment-ban.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1106733795","content_text":"GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese smartphone makerXiaomihas sued the U.S., seeking to to be removed from Washington’s blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies, which prevents American investors from buying shares in Xiaomi.\nLast month,the U.S. designated Xiaomi as one of several “Communist Chinese military companies”under the National Defense Authorization Act of 1999.\nThat designation means Xiaomi will be subjected to a November executive order by former president Donald Trump, which restricts American investors from buying shares or related securities of any companies that have the Chinese military designation.\nIn response, Xiaomi filed a lawsuit on Friday against the U.S. treasury and defense departments in the district court of Columbia, according to its investor relations website on Sunday.\nXiaomi alleged that the Chinese military designation is “unconstitutional because it deprives Xiaomi of its liberty and property rights without due process of law” and therefore violates the Fifth Amendment of the U.S Constitution.\nThe Chinese company also said the ban on investors buying shares will cause “irreparable harm.”\n“By cutting off Xiaomi from U.S. capital markets, the Designation and related restrictions will damage the company’s ability to conduct, grow and finance its business, sell its products, maintain and grow its business relationships, and recruit and retain employees,” the company’s lawsuit said.\nThe company also said that it is “not owned or controlled by, or otherwise affiliated with the Chinese government or military, or owned or controlled by any entity affiliated with the Chinese defense industrial base.”\nXiaomi said any Chinese government or military entity doesn’t posses the ability “to exert control over the management or affairs of the company.”\nHuawei, which was a target under the Trump administration, has also tried to use the U.S. legal system to overturn actions taken by Washington.\nIn March 2019,Huawei sued the U.S. over a law that banned government agenciesfrom buying the Chinese technology giant’s equipment. That lawsuit was rejected by a federal judge last year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016967829,"gmtCreate":1649119665568,"gmtModify":1676534454453,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>Ways to financial freedom!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>Ways to financial freedom!","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$Ways to financial freedom!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c1946b6010be8e2538476030a02db41","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016967829","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352544633,"gmtCreate":1616988701622,"gmtModify":1704800477736,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Buy the dip to average down?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Buy the dip to average down?","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Buy the dip to average down?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ad651763cae3e0543afcc78975224f","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352544633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325161340,"gmtCreate":1615877002680,"gmtModify":1704787800425,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Added this innovative stock in my portfolio","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Added this innovative stock in my portfolio","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Added this innovative stock in my portfolio","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b17573a09569b9faea179961f52225","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325161340","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962944440,"gmtCreate":1669710161281,"gmtModify":1676538226799,"author":{"id":"3555124809295745","authorId":"3555124809295745","authorIdStr":"3555124809295745","name":"ThiamAlwaysW","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc8fe8c878f32cc9c97dd6402a15029a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555124809295745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962944440","repostId":"2287354580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287354580","pubTimestamp":1669735345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287354580?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Market Is Right - The Current Price Is Fair","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287354580","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySome bearish analysts think that Apple stock is expensive right now.Most of the Apple analysi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Some bearish analysts think that Apple stock is expensive right now.</li><li>Most of the Apple analysis is not incorporating a forecast of AR/VR products.</li><li>The effect of share buybacks is also frequently not included in those analyses.</li><li>The article will offer evidence that the stock is not expensive at all using the discounted cash flow methodology incorporating those two factors.</li><li>The calculation will be made through three different stages.</li></ul><h2>Introduction</h2><p>We consider that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple Inc. </a> is a &#34;hold&#34; right now. In this article, I will provide evidence that the stock market price ranging between $130 and $170 per share year-to-date is moving around its intrinsic value; in other words, the current stock price is neither expensive nor cheap.</p><p>I will show a new perspective about the calculation of Apple&#39;s intrinsic value that will help readers to understand why the stock price has not dropped as some bearish analysts might expect. First, I will use the DCF methodology for making projections of the current Apple&#39;s products and services. Second, I will include the virtual and augmented reality products AR/VR in the calculation taking the assumptions made by one of the most reliable analysts about Apple - Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, and GlobalData Forecasts; the goal is to estimate a present value of the projected free cash flow (FCF) that would be generated by the AR/VR products that would be launched in 2023. Finally, I will add the effect of share buy-backs in the intrinsic value&#39;s calculation.</p><p>I need to remind you that Apple stock should be seen as a long-term investment as Tim Cook clearly emphasized in the last TIME100 summit based on New York in June 2022, Tim Cook said:</p><blockquote>If you are a short term trader, do not invest in Apple stock. Because if you are doing that, you are trading at a different time horizon than we&#39;re investing in. We invest for the long term. Doing good is creating shareholder value in the long term; it may not in the very short term. Our interests are not aligned to the short term trader.</blockquote><h2>Context</h2><p>Apple is facing some problems in one of the main Foxconn&#39;s facilities which is the world&#39;s largest iPhone factory located in Zhengzhou, China, due to the zero-COVID policy implemented in the country. This could affect the expectations of the analysts for the last quarter in 2022. However, the problem is not in the demand but in the supply as mentioned in the Apple&#39;s web site in November 2022:</p><blockquote>COVID restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro max assembly facility located Zhengzhou, China. The facility is currently operating at significantly reduced capacity. As we have done throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we are prioritizing the health and safety of the workers in our supply chain.</blockquote><blockquote>We continue to see strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models. However, we now expect lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than we previously anticipated and customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products.</blockquote><p>Furthermore, there are recent worrisome news about the protests in the Zhengzhou&#39;s facilities with all the new recruited workers. However, Tim Cook has a strong specialization in supply chain management; in fact, that was one of the main reasons why Steve Jobs believed that there was anyone better than Tim Cook as his successor.</p><p>Therefore, we don&#39;t have to be worried about the short-term issues mentioned on the news particularly if we are focused on a long-term horizon. In my opinion, a key factor is that Tim Cook has developed a long-term strategy in the company focused on delivering more value for long-term investors, which is reflected by the Apple stock&#39;s capital appreciation of more than 600% in the last 10 years.</p><p>Given our focus on the long-term, I propose to calculate an intrinsic value considering the strong business model and the outstanding management; these two factors are key to make decent projections of the future FCFs to calculate Apple&#39;s intrinsic value. Let&#39;s see why this stock is at a fair price.</p><h2>First stage: standard intrinsic value</h2><p>In this part, I will show you that this is the typical way of calculation of the intrinsic value in several analysis using the DCF, considering a conservative growth in revenues and FCF of the company for the next years.</p><p>These are my assumptions for this stage:</p><ul><li>Outstanding shares from 2021: 16,877,005,347</li><li>FCF margins based on the last 10 years average: 22%</li><li>Revenue growth of 3% for the next 6 years</li><li>Total debt and cash on hand in the balance sheet as of September 2022</li><li>Enterprise value is the subtraction of the total debt from the present value of the all the future FCF projected adding the cash on hand from the balance sheet.</li><li>Growth in FCF perpetuity (FCFP): 3%</li><li>Discounted rate: 8%</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9593afa9b5806f52aadb452a74e0f3d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><p>The estimations are conservative; for example, the growth of FCF has been 13.65% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the last 10 years while I am assuming 3% for my projections. The revenue growth expected from the consensus is 3% for 2023, 5.5% for 2024, and 5.1% for 2025; my estimations are 3% of revenue growth for all the years projected.</p><p>The intrinsic value according to this stage of calculation is $97.36 per share which is similar to the number that some bearish analysts are getting in their calculations.</p><h2>Second stage: including VR/AR products</h2><p>According to Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the most reliable analysts about Apple, the AR/VR products might be launched in 2023. The goal is to estimate FCF projections for the AR/VR products using the next assumptions:</p><ul><li>AR/VR products will be launched in 2023</li><li>The number of units sold estimated in 2023 would be 1,500</li><li>Price estimated per unit is $3,000 per unit</li><li>Growth of sales: 40% annual, according to GlobalData Forecasts, it is expected to reach $30 billion in sales in 2030, which means a 40% CAGR roughly since 2023</li><li>FCF margins (FCF/Revenues) generated by the AR/VR products: 22% which are aligned with FCF margins of the entire company.</li><li>Growth of FCFP: 6% annual.</li><li>Discounted rate: 8%</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83ebc9d88521e926b225e41ae3f96af2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><p>The present value (PV) of the future FCFs obtained under these assumptions is $320,399 million. This number will be summed up to the enterprise value previously calculated in the first stage. In this sense, we are keeping all the assumptions made in the first stage; therefore, our new intrinsic value including the AR/VR products forecast is 116.34$ per share:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/384dec806a0271e64a05266bd51d8205\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><h2>Third stage: including the share buyback&#39;s effect</h2><p>In this stage, we need to know what was the rate at which Apple makes its share buy-backs, so reviewing its past history in the last 9 years, we have the following:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76916d1ad63a59b6656f3e33d336fff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author, Apple&#39;s Annual report</p><p>We consider the share buy-backs from 2013 to 2019 since there was a 4-to-1 split in 2020. Taking the average rate, Apple repurchases 5.5% of the outstanding shares of the previous year. Now, we will apply 5% for the next years projected to the year 2026:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8334af831132ec75127463fcd516b83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><p>In this stage, we take the enterprise value and divide it by the outstanding number of shares projected for the year 2026. Of course, Apple might keep reducing its number of outstanding shares beyond 2026, driving up even more the intrinsic value but we want to be conservative in our assumptions; thus, according to this model, the number of outstanding shares for 2027 onwards will be the same as 2026.</p><p>The final intrinsic value including the projections of the AR/VR products and the share buy-back&#39;s effect is 150$ per share which is the average price at which Apple stock was trading in the last months.</p><h2>Challenges to the thesis</h2><p>Some of the assumptions that we&#39;ve made might be broken, so that the intrinsic value could be lower than that we are expecting. For instance, if the annual rate of buy-backs falls from 5% to 3% keeping the other factors unchanged, the intrinsic value would drop from $150 to $135 per share. We don&#39;t know if Apple will keep the same rate or not, so I would consider a range between $135$ to $150 per share as the intrinsic value.</p><p>A second factor would be a scenario in which the AR/VR products are not launched in 2023 delaying the propel to an unknown date. In that case, our intrinsic value would only incorporate the buy-backs and the projection of the current products for the next years. In this scenario, the Apple&#39;s intrinsic value would be around 125.82$ per share. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine that Tim Cook would delay the launch of the AR/VR products since he said in September 2022:</p><blockquote>Not too long from today, people will wonder how they led a life without augmented reality, stressing the &#34;profound&#34; impact it will have on the not so distant future.</blockquote><p>This combined by the expectations of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, strengthen the possibility of that important event for Apple in 2023 with a high probability.</p><p>A third factor that could weak our thesis is related to the average price of the AR/VR products. The average price per unit for these products assumed in our calculation was $3,000. If the price was lower than expected keeping the other factors unchanged, the intrinsic value will be impacted:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/419f5a3fd23e39fec66b6cc12899f68f\" tg-width=\"332\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prepared by the author</p><p>However, I cannot imagine a scenario in which the price per unit reaches $1,500 since we know that the segment targeted for Apple&#39;s products is the wealthier segment of the market; this is another reason why Apple has an strong pricing power since its products are well-demanded and its customers have high buying power.</p><p>Another factor that could affect the valuation is the more restrictive monetary policy by the Fed in the next years. More interest rate hikes to control the inflation rates in the economy could affect the demand for Apple&#39;s products and services, so the revenue growth might be impacted. Nonetheless, the Apple&#39;s business model is very resilient since the main target of the company is the wealthier segment of the market. Most likely, the problem continues being the supply instead of the demand for Apple&#39;s products, and the launch of the new AR/VR products could be another interesting catalyzer to deliver more revenue growth, so I feel comfortable with the 3% of revenue growth for the next years.</p><p>Finally, we are considering that the risk frequently mentioned on the news about the possibility that China could invade Taiwan is no significant. In Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a critical Apple&#39;s provider of the 3nm-chips. However, there would be several negative implications for China, like beginning a war with the US, or the possibility that Taiwan or the US destroy all TSM&#39;s assets, making the invasion a failure. Apparently, Warren Buffett is also assigning a low probability for such event since he has recently invested in TSM.</p><p>In a nutshell, taking all these scenarios, we could establish a range for the Apple&#39;s intrinsic value between 135$ and 150$ per share. The stock price has been moving around that range in the last months, so it is likely that the market is considering the launch of the AR/VR products and the share buy-back&#39;s effect. Apparently, the market is not considering the Apple car as part of the valuation of the company either.</p><h2>Strategy with Apple stock</h2><p>Apple stock is a <i>hold</i> for those investors who have invested in the company several years ago. A new investor who is thinking of buying Apple stock could consider that the current price ranging between $130 and $150 per share is the fair price. I would start a position when the price is between $130 and $140 per share, increasing my position gradually if the stock falls below that range.</p><p>Given the uncertainty related to the monetary policy from the FED, the war between Ukraine and Russia, the zero-COVID policy in China, a recession in 2023, and so on, the stock might drop below the range of the intrinsic value previously mentioned giving an opportunity to new investors. Being aware of which is Apple&#39;s fair value will enable us to know if we should start a position or not right now. If we consider the stock to be expensive, we would have the incentives to wait for a significant fall in the stock price that may never come since we are not making a proper calculation of the intrinsic value of the company.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>Some analysts state that Apple stock is overvalued using multiples, comparing them with other competitors, and encouraging investors to wait for a significant decline in Apple stock, a fall that may not come. We need to be aware of the limitations of only using multiples like P/E, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, etc. since these multiples assume almost the same quality among all the comparables without considering factors that are only intrinsic to each company.</p><p>In addition, most of these analyses do not include neither the launch of the AR/VR products in 2023 and most importantly, nor the share buy-back&#39;s effect which is a regular practice of the Apple&#39;s management in the last 10 years to deliver more value to long-term investors.</p><p>A critical factor behind all the assumptions we&#39;ve made in this article is the management&#39;s capabilities to deliver the highest value to the shareholders; Tim Cook has done an amazing job in all these years, strengthening Apple&#39;s market position, the innovative culture inside the company, the brand&#39;s reputation, the efficiency in the supply chain management and the capital allocation.</p><p>Apple is a <i>compounder</i> since it is able to reinvest its cash flows at high returns; this combined with its strong buybacks year by year ends up boosting the intrinsic value. So most likely the current intrinsic value ranging between $130 and $150 per share would be higher in the next years as the company keeps delivering more value to its clients and investors.</p><p>Thanks to a solid and consistent long-term strategy, we feel confident making projections for Apple&#39;s future performance, getting an approximation of Apple&#39;s intrinsic value ranging between $135 and $150 per share. Therefore, there could be an interesting opportunity to buy Apple stock when the price drops below that range.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Market Is Right - The Current Price Is Fair</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Market Is Right - The Current Price Is Fair\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560944-apple-stock-market-right-current-price-is-fair><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySome bearish analysts think that Apple stock is expensive right now.Most of the Apple analysis is not incorporating a forecast of AR/VR products.The effect of share buybacks is also frequently ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560944-apple-stock-market-right-current-price-is-fair\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560944-apple-stock-market-right-current-price-is-fair","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2287354580","content_text":"SummarySome bearish analysts think that Apple stock is expensive right now.Most of the Apple analysis is not incorporating a forecast of AR/VR products.The effect of share buybacks is also frequently not included in those analyses.The article will offer evidence that the stock is not expensive at all using the discounted cash flow methodology incorporating those two factors.The calculation will be made through three different stages.IntroductionWe consider that Apple Inc.  is a \"hold\" right now. In this article, I will provide evidence that the stock market price ranging between $130 and $170 per share year-to-date is moving around its intrinsic value; in other words, the current stock price is neither expensive nor cheap.I will show a new perspective about the calculation of Apple's intrinsic value that will help readers to understand why the stock price has not dropped as some bearish analysts might expect. First, I will use the DCF methodology for making projections of the current Apple's products and services. Second, I will include the virtual and augmented reality products AR/VR in the calculation taking the assumptions made by one of the most reliable analysts about Apple - Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, and GlobalData Forecasts; the goal is to estimate a present value of the projected free cash flow (FCF) that would be generated by the AR/VR products that would be launched in 2023. Finally, I will add the effect of share buy-backs in the intrinsic value's calculation.I need to remind you that Apple stock should be seen as a long-term investment as Tim Cook clearly emphasized in the last TIME100 summit based on New York in June 2022, Tim Cook said:If you are a short term trader, do not invest in Apple stock. Because if you are doing that, you are trading at a different time horizon than we're investing in. We invest for the long term. Doing good is creating shareholder value in the long term; it may not in the very short term. Our interests are not aligned to the short term trader.ContextApple is facing some problems in one of the main Foxconn's facilities which is the world's largest iPhone factory located in Zhengzhou, China, due to the zero-COVID policy implemented in the country. This could affect the expectations of the analysts for the last quarter in 2022. However, the problem is not in the demand but in the supply as mentioned in the Apple's web site in November 2022:COVID restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro max assembly facility located Zhengzhou, China. The facility is currently operating at significantly reduced capacity. As we have done throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we are prioritizing the health and safety of the workers in our supply chain.We continue to see strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models. However, we now expect lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than we previously anticipated and customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products.Furthermore, there are recent worrisome news about the protests in the Zhengzhou's facilities with all the new recruited workers. However, Tim Cook has a strong specialization in supply chain management; in fact, that was one of the main reasons why Steve Jobs believed that there was anyone better than Tim Cook as his successor.Therefore, we don't have to be worried about the short-term issues mentioned on the news particularly if we are focused on a long-term horizon. In my opinion, a key factor is that Tim Cook has developed a long-term strategy in the company focused on delivering more value for long-term investors, which is reflected by the Apple stock's capital appreciation of more than 600% in the last 10 years.Given our focus on the long-term, I propose to calculate an intrinsic value considering the strong business model and the outstanding management; these two factors are key to make decent projections of the future FCFs to calculate Apple's intrinsic value. Let's see why this stock is at a fair price.First stage: standard intrinsic valueIn this part, I will show you that this is the typical way of calculation of the intrinsic value in several analysis using the DCF, considering a conservative growth in revenues and FCF of the company for the next years.These are my assumptions for this stage:Outstanding shares from 2021: 16,877,005,347FCF margins based on the last 10 years average: 22%Revenue growth of 3% for the next 6 yearsTotal debt and cash on hand in the balance sheet as of September 2022Enterprise value is the subtraction of the total debt from the present value of the all the future FCF projected adding the cash on hand from the balance sheet.Growth in FCF perpetuity (FCFP): 3%Discounted rate: 8%Prepared by the authorThe estimations are conservative; for example, the growth of FCF has been 13.65% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the last 10 years while I am assuming 3% for my projections. The revenue growth expected from the consensus is 3% for 2023, 5.5% for 2024, and 5.1% for 2025; my estimations are 3% of revenue growth for all the years projected.The intrinsic value according to this stage of calculation is $97.36 per share which is similar to the number that some bearish analysts are getting in their calculations.Second stage: including VR/AR productsAccording to Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the most reliable analysts about Apple, the AR/VR products might be launched in 2023. The goal is to estimate FCF projections for the AR/VR products using the next assumptions:AR/VR products will be launched in 2023The number of units sold estimated in 2023 would be 1,500Price estimated per unit is $3,000 per unitGrowth of sales: 40% annual, according to GlobalData Forecasts, it is expected to reach $30 billion in sales in 2030, which means a 40% CAGR roughly since 2023FCF margins (FCF/Revenues) generated by the AR/VR products: 22% which are aligned with FCF margins of the entire company.Growth of FCFP: 6% annual.Discounted rate: 8%Prepared by the authorThe present value (PV) of the future FCFs obtained under these assumptions is $320,399 million. This number will be summed up to the enterprise value previously calculated in the first stage. In this sense, we are keeping all the assumptions made in the first stage; therefore, our new intrinsic value including the AR/VR products forecast is 116.34$ per share:Prepared by the authorThird stage: including the share buyback's effectIn this stage, we need to know what was the rate at which Apple makes its share buy-backs, so reviewing its past history in the last 9 years, we have the following:Prepared by the author, Apple's Annual reportWe consider the share buy-backs from 2013 to 2019 since there was a 4-to-1 split in 2020. Taking the average rate, Apple repurchases 5.5% of the outstanding shares of the previous year. Now, we will apply 5% for the next years projected to the year 2026:Prepared by the authorIn this stage, we take the enterprise value and divide it by the outstanding number of shares projected for the year 2026. Of course, Apple might keep reducing its number of outstanding shares beyond 2026, driving up even more the intrinsic value but we want to be conservative in our assumptions; thus, according to this model, the number of outstanding shares for 2027 onwards will be the same as 2026.The final intrinsic value including the projections of the AR/VR products and the share buy-back's effect is 150$ per share which is the average price at which Apple stock was trading in the last months.Challenges to the thesisSome of the assumptions that we've made might be broken, so that the intrinsic value could be lower than that we are expecting. For instance, if the annual rate of buy-backs falls from 5% to 3% keeping the other factors unchanged, the intrinsic value would drop from $150 to $135 per share. We don't know if Apple will keep the same rate or not, so I would consider a range between $135$ to $150 per share as the intrinsic value.A second factor would be a scenario in which the AR/VR products are not launched in 2023 delaying the propel to an unknown date. In that case, our intrinsic value would only incorporate the buy-backs and the projection of the current products for the next years. In this scenario, the Apple's intrinsic value would be around 125.82$ per share. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine that Tim Cook would delay the launch of the AR/VR products since he said in September 2022:Not too long from today, people will wonder how they led a life without augmented reality, stressing the \"profound\" impact it will have on the not so distant future.This combined by the expectations of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, strengthen the possibility of that important event for Apple in 2023 with a high probability.A third factor that could weak our thesis is related to the average price of the AR/VR products. The average price per unit for these products assumed in our calculation was $3,000. If the price was lower than expected keeping the other factors unchanged, the intrinsic value will be impacted:Prepared by the authorHowever, I cannot imagine a scenario in which the price per unit reaches $1,500 since we know that the segment targeted for Apple's products is the wealthier segment of the market; this is another reason why Apple has an strong pricing power since its products are well-demanded and its customers have high buying power.Another factor that could affect the valuation is the more restrictive monetary policy by the Fed in the next years. More interest rate hikes to control the inflation rates in the economy could affect the demand for Apple's products and services, so the revenue growth might be impacted. Nonetheless, the Apple's business model is very resilient since the main target of the company is the wealthier segment of the market. Most likely, the problem continues being the supply instead of the demand for Apple's products, and the launch of the new AR/VR products could be another interesting catalyzer to deliver more revenue growth, so I feel comfortable with the 3% of revenue growth for the next years.Finally, we are considering that the risk frequently mentioned on the news about the possibility that China could invade Taiwan is no significant. In Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a critical Apple's provider of the 3nm-chips. However, there would be several negative implications for China, like beginning a war with the US, or the possibility that Taiwan or the US destroy all TSM's assets, making the invasion a failure. Apparently, Warren Buffett is also assigning a low probability for such event since he has recently invested in TSM.In a nutshell, taking all these scenarios, we could establish a range for the Apple's intrinsic value between 135$ and 150$ per share. The stock price has been moving around that range in the last months, so it is likely that the market is considering the launch of the AR/VR products and the share buy-back's effect. Apparently, the market is not considering the Apple car as part of the valuation of the company either.Strategy with Apple stockApple stock is a hold for those investors who have invested in the company several years ago. A new investor who is thinking of buying Apple stock could consider that the current price ranging between $130 and $150 per share is the fair price. I would start a position when the price is between $130 and $140 per share, increasing my position gradually if the stock falls below that range.Given the uncertainty related to the monetary policy from the FED, the war between Ukraine and Russia, the zero-COVID policy in China, a recession in 2023, and so on, the stock might drop below the range of the intrinsic value previously mentioned giving an opportunity to new investors. Being aware of which is Apple's fair value will enable us to know if we should start a position or not right now. If we consider the stock to be expensive, we would have the incentives to wait for a significant fall in the stock price that may never come since we are not making a proper calculation of the intrinsic value of the company.Final ThoughtsSome analysts state that Apple stock is overvalued using multiples, comparing them with other competitors, and encouraging investors to wait for a significant decline in Apple stock, a fall that may not come. We need to be aware of the limitations of only using multiples like P/E, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, etc. since these multiples assume almost the same quality among all the comparables without considering factors that are only intrinsic to each company.In addition, most of these analyses do not include neither the launch of the AR/VR products in 2023 and most importantly, nor the share buy-back's effect which is a regular practice of the Apple's management in the last 10 years to deliver more value to long-term investors.A critical factor behind all the assumptions we've made in this article is the management's capabilities to deliver the highest value to the shareholders; Tim Cook has done an amazing job in all these years, strengthening Apple's market position, the innovative culture inside the company, the brand's reputation, the efficiency in the supply chain management and the capital allocation.Apple is a compounder since it is able to reinvest its cash flows at high returns; this combined with its strong buybacks year by year ends up boosting the intrinsic value. So most likely the current intrinsic value ranging between $130 and $150 per share would be higher in the next years as the company keeps delivering more value to its clients and investors.Thanks to a solid and consistent long-term strategy, we feel confident making projections for Apple's future performance, getting an approximation of Apple's intrinsic value ranging between $135 and $150 per share. Therefore, there could be an interesting opportunity to buy Apple stock when the price drops below that range.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}