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2021-06-16

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Some WSB concept stocks declined, with AMC Cinemas falling more than 10%.

2021-06-08

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Alzheimer's drugs for the first time in about 20 years.

2021-06-05

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Will the next Tesla come from China?

2021-07-21

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[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.

2021-06-14

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Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously

2021-06-18

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2021-06-13

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2021-08-09

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2021-07-31

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2021-07-28

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20:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The three giants of new energy have already become quite competitive.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108257936","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。\n7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。\n虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽","content":"<p>Continue<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>He's back too.</p><p>On July 26, Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents showed that Li Auto passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing and will seek to apply for a dual primary listing as an issuer with different voting rights structures.</p><p>Although it is one of the three major emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in Li Auto, Li Auto seems to be much more low-key compared to the other two, and it does not have obvious advantages in many operating indicators. Can its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange become a new starting point for Chinese companies and achieve a comeback in future competition?</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Are the operating data ideal?</b></p><p>In terms of products, Li Auto only has one six-seater mid-to-large model.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Electric SUV - Li Auto ONE; In terms of sales volume, Li Auto sold 32,624 vehicles in 2020, ranking among the top sellers of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>It ranks sixth in car sales, accounting for 2.8% of the market share, and third among automakers that only produce new energy vehicles. As of June 30, 2021, Li Auto had delivered more than 63,000 Li ONE vehicles.</p><p>In contrast, competitors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>XPeng has already mass-produced more than two automotive products, including SUVs and sedans.<b>In 2020, Nio sold 43,728 vehicles, higher than Li Auto, while XPeng sold 27,006 vehicles, which was relatively lower.</b>However, the difference is that the competitors are all pure electric models, while the ideal range-extended technology route benefits to some extent from the convenience of gasoline vehicles.</p><p>In terms of financial data, Li Auto is still operating at a loss. From 2019 to 2020, Li Auto' total revenue was approximately RMB 284 million and RMB 9.457 billion, respectively, while net losses attributable to ordinary shareholders were RMB 3.282 billion and RMB 792 million, respectively. The losses narrowed, while gross profit turned positive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129a0d88612f98087ba073834f0e32dc\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, in the first three months of 2021, total revenue was 3.575 billion yuan, and the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.67 times compared with the same period last year.<b>The reason is that R&D expenses and marketing expenses are growing rapidly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96932b218d0b2a17d8eb1be2744d78f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>To plan for the future, R&D expenses must be maintained, while marketing expenses are also difficult to reduce in order to seize market share. In other words, both expenses are unlikely to decrease in the short term, so it is highly likely that this year's net loss will exceed last year's.</b></p><p>It's difficult to predict when net profit will turn positive, but this is a common problem faced by emerging domestic companies. If applied<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After experiencing this, the year net profit turned positive, with total sales of 500,000 vehicles, the road to profitability for emerging domestic players was still very far away. Of course, there are still significant differences between \"Wei Xiaoli\" and Tesla, so forcing a comparison is not very meaningful. It just wants to show that the road to truly achieving profitability is still long.</p><p>Fortunately, Li Auto's monthly sales continue to grow, and in June it even won the domestic mid-to-large SUV sales championship, surpassing Nio Automobile in total sales, which shows a good development trend.</p><p>The continued strong sales performance is attributed to Li Auto' strategic sales channel layout. As of June 30, 2021, it had 97 retail stores in major cities in China, and opened its 100th retail store on July 10, 2021. Like Tesla, Li Auto chooses to locate its retail stores in shopping malls where its target customers may visit, rather than in central business districts or landmark buildings.</p><p>Its competitor XPeng has 178 stores, including 88 directly operated stores and 90 franchised stores, which is 1.8 times that of Li Auto. However, in the first half of this year, both Li Auto and XPeng sold around 30,000 vehicles, which shows that Li Auto has an advantage in terms of sales efficiency per store.</p><p>The above operating indicators and financial data only show a relatively positive trend, making it difficult to quantify investment value using conventional value models.</p><p>However, Li Auto is in a rapidly developing track with substantial growth dividends that developed countries are vying for, so it needs to be viewed from a deeper perspective.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Technical approach to solving near-optimal</b></p><p>In choosing major strategic directions, Li Auto was not overly idealistic, but rather very realistic.</p><p>Back then, when Tesla decided to make electric cars, it started with luxury sports cars. It was only interested in Silicon Valley's tech tycoons who were wealthy, willing to try new technologies, and had a passion for contributing to environmental protection.</p><p>Behind this is actually a comprehensive business consideration. Electric vehicle technology is not yet mature, and with limited mass production, the price will inevitably be very high. If you rashly try to enter the grassroots market from the beginning, you will most likely be turned away and easily surrounded by gasoline vehicle manufacturers, or even die in the womb.</p><p>Therefore, starting with relatively differentiated markets was a prudent approach, and subsequent events have proven the success of Tesla's strategy.</p><p>The same applies to Li Auto. A review of its various strategic thinking lines reveals two very clear points.</p><p>First,<b>Starting with mid-to-large SUV models, like Nio, they value market acceptance and price advantages.</b>Over the past decade, SUVs have been popular with consumers due to their powerful engine and spacious interior, and the rising purchasing power of Chinese consumers has supported this SUV craze. Therefore, choosing an SUV model to enter the market can effectively spread costs, eliminate the price gap with similar gasoline vehicles, and make it easier for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.</p><p>Second,<b>The technological roadmap for range-extended range technology.</b>This is also the most controversial point in Li Auto. Why did Li Auto choose this route?</p><p>Let's take a look at the following pictures.</p><p>Comparing the three technology routes, you'll find that the range-extended technology route actually takes a clever approach between plug-in hybrids and HEV hybrids.</p><p>It can refuel and charge simultaneously like a plug-in hybrid, and also has the entire process of generating, storing, and discharging electricity through a fuel engine to drive the electric motor to provide power. However, it does not have the function of a fuel engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Like HEV hybrids, it can also be powered by refueling and then generating electricity from the gasoline engine, but it also does not have the function of the gasoline engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Anyone who has driven a gasoline-powered car knows that the engine is very noisy when running, and the fuel conversion efficiency is not high. Even with the most advanced technology, it is difficult to exceed 50%. This is precisely the thermal efficiency problem that gasoline-powered cars are often criticized for. But electric vehicles are different. The noise of the motor is much lower than that of a gasoline engine, and the power conversion efficiency is also higher, often reaching 80-90%.</p><p>Therefore, the advantage of range-extended electric vehicles lies in not only making full use of the advantage of electric motors replacing gasoline engines as a power source, but also retaining the benefit of \"being able to refuel\". This solves the problems of range anxiety, excessively long charging time, and too few charging piles in pure electric vehicles.</p><p><b>In other words, it uses the convenience of gasoline-powered vehicles to demonstrate the advantages of electric vehicles.</b></p><p>The new energy vehicle industry is extremely expensive. Li Bin, the owner of Nio, once famously said:<b>\"Don't make electric vehicles without 20 billion.\"</b></p><p>To be realistic, how many startup car companies can raise 20 billion yuan in a single investment?</p><p>Nio himself almost died because he lacked money, so he was able to survive smoothly and was qualified to talk about \"ideals\". The financing figures disclosed by Li Auto before its IPO were 14.6 billion yuan. If money were blindly burned in, the company might have already gone bankrupt before the car even came out.</p><p>Instead of blindly making grand pronouncements, we should start from the most pragmatic approach, with the goal of surviving before planning for the future. This is precisely the starting point and ultimate destination for Ideal to conduct strategic thinking.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Can ideal foresight be solved?</b></p><p>Like many technology-intensive industries, the choice of technology route is crucial for new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>From the perspective of short-term survival, there is nothing wrong with Li Auto's choice of range-extended technology, and facts have proven its correctness. In terms of annual sales, it is second only to Tesla and Nio, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are also significantly ahead of Nio and XPeng.</p><p>But if a person has no immediate worries, they must have long-term plans.</p><p>For Li Auto, this long-term vision is the pure electric technology route.</p><p>From the perspective of the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles are inevitable. They can better solve humanity's dependence on oil and provide support for more intelligent applications. Although range anxiety and charging convenience have not yet been well resolved, it is not impossible to solve these problems with the development of technology. This is precisely why, although the range-extended vehicle route has advantages, it has not been favored by many automakers, especially giants.<b>The automotive industry prefers to view range-extended range as a transitional solution rather than a final solution.</b></p><p>In terms of pure electric technology, Li Auto has no advantage and has not yet been interviewed for a pure electric model. Although Li Auto has recognized the importance of the pure electric route in its strategic planning and has focused on high-voltage fast charging technology, it will not be able to launch its first pure electric model until 2023 at the earliest.</p><p>The effectiveness remains to be seen, but technology and the market are changing rapidly. Although the penetration rate is still in the growth range, the competition for pure electric vehicles has become very daytime. All kinds of \"gods\", traditional, new and cross-industry, are fighting bare-handed. If it is difficult to compete, how much time will Li Auto have left to waste? If it cannot make a breakthrough quickly in the pure electric technology route, how long can Li Auto squander the benefits it has gained in the range-extended range route?</p><p>In research and development, Li Auto has benefited from range-extended electric vehicles, with costs significantly lower than those of its competitors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ce8d4a224bf61d7f6462f03993e35\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the opposite of being overly pragmatic can also be timidity. Once investment is increased, there will inevitably be a possibility of widening financial losses. Does Li Auto have enough courage to make a drastic decision?</p><p>According to post-hearing information, Li Auto is developing the X platform, which inherits the existing range-extended electric vehicle platform of the Li Auto ONE and is equipped with a next-generation range-extended electric powertrain. The company plans to launch its first product on the X platform – a full-size luxury program-extended electric SUV – in 2022, and launch two other SUVs on the X platform in 2023.</p><p><b>Clearly, one of Ideal's key focuses remains on the range-extended technology route. Can this address its long-term concerns?</b></p><p><b>4、</b><b>epilogue</b></p><p>As a new phenomenon, new energy vehicles are a combination of traditional automobiles and electronic products, embodying humanity's revolutionary ideals for modes of transportation. Who can come out on top in this battle depends on technological research and development.</p><p>The competition in technological research and development is primarily about strategic direction, followed by burning money and talent.</p><p>The choice of range-extended range enabled Li Auto to overcome the difficulties of its early stages of entrepreneurship, successfully survive, and do quite well.<b>However, relying solely on this technological approach, ideals cannot win the future.</b></p><p>Li Auto stated that it is investing heavily in high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology, developing two platforms for future high-voltage pure electric vehicles—Whale and Shark. Starting in 2022, all new Li Auto models will be equipped with the necessary hardware compatible with its self-developed future Level 4 autonomous driving as standard equipment, and has set a \"Li Auto\" goal of achieving a 20% market share within 5 years.</p><p>The ideal is very lofty.</p><p>Having successfully listed on the US stock market last year and now on the Hong Kong stock market, from the perspective of ample capital, the ideal is secured. The popularity of new energy vehicles since last year has allowed Li Auto to enjoy the glory of its stock price doubling.</p><p>However, when it comes to talent, the industry is already in a situation of \"too many applicants and too few porridge\". Even if Li Auto is willing to spend money, can it guarantee that it will find talent? Each of our competitors has a lot of money at their disposal. If we compete to throw money at each other, Li Auto may not be able to win against anyone.</p><p>Reality is harsh.</p><p>The return of ideals may be the beginning of the real challenge.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The three giants of new energy have already become quite competitive.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe three giants of new energy have already become quite competitive.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-26 20:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Continue<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>After that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>He's back too.</p><p>On July 26, Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents showed that Li Auto passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing and will seek to apply for a dual primary listing as an issuer with different voting rights structures.</p><p>Although it is one of the three major emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in Li Auto, Li Auto seems to be much more low-key compared to the other two, and it does not have obvious advantages in many operating indicators. Can its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange become a new starting point for Chinese companies and achieve a comeback in future competition?</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Are the operating data ideal?</b></p><p>In terms of products, Li Auto only has one six-seater mid-to-large model.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Electric SUV - Li Auto ONE; In terms of sales volume, Li Auto sold 32,624 vehicles in 2020, ranking among the top sellers of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>It ranks sixth in car sales, accounting for 2.8% of the market share, and third among automakers that only produce new energy vehicles. As of June 30, 2021, Li Auto had delivered more than 63,000 Li ONE vehicles.</p><p>In contrast, competitors,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>XPeng has already mass-produced more than two automotive products, including SUVs and sedans.<b>In 2020, Nio sold 43,728 vehicles, higher than Li Auto, while XPeng sold 27,006 vehicles, which was relatively lower.</b>However, the difference is that the competitors are all pure electric models, while the ideal range-extended technology route benefits to some extent from the convenience of gasoline vehicles.</p><p>In terms of financial data, Li Auto is still operating at a loss. From 2019 to 2020, Li Auto' total revenue was approximately RMB 284 million and RMB 9.457 billion, respectively, while net losses attributable to ordinary shareholders were RMB 3.282 billion and RMB 792 million, respectively. The losses narrowed, while gross profit turned positive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129a0d88612f98087ba073834f0e32dc\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, in the first three months of 2021, total revenue was 3.575 billion yuan, and the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 3.67 times compared with the same period last year.<b>The reason is that R&D expenses and marketing expenses are growing rapidly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b96932b218d0b2a17d8eb1be2744d78f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>To plan for the future, R&D expenses must be maintained, while marketing expenses are also difficult to reduce in order to seize market share. In other words, both expenses are unlikely to decrease in the short term, so it is highly likely that this year's net loss will exceed last year's.</b></p><p>It's difficult to predict when net profit will turn positive, but this is a common problem faced by emerging domestic companies. If applied<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After experiencing this, the year net profit turned positive, with total sales of 500,000 vehicles, the road to profitability for emerging domestic players was still very far away. Of course, there are still significant differences between \"Wei Xiaoli\" and Tesla, so forcing a comparison is not very meaningful. It just wants to show that the road to truly achieving profitability is still long.</p><p>Fortunately, Li Auto's monthly sales continue to grow, and in June it even won the domestic mid-to-large SUV sales championship, surpassing Nio Automobile in total sales, which shows a good development trend.</p><p>The continued strong sales performance is attributed to Li Auto' strategic sales channel layout. As of June 30, 2021, it had 97 retail stores in major cities in China, and opened its 100th retail store on July 10, 2021. Like Tesla, Li Auto chooses to locate its retail stores in shopping malls where its target customers may visit, rather than in central business districts or landmark buildings.</p><p>Its competitor XPeng has 178 stores, including 88 directly operated stores and 90 franchised stores, which is 1.8 times that of Li Auto. However, in the first half of this year, both Li Auto and XPeng sold around 30,000 vehicles, which shows that Li Auto has an advantage in terms of sales efficiency per store.</p><p>The above operating indicators and financial data only show a relatively positive trend, making it difficult to quantify investment value using conventional value models.</p><p>However, Li Auto is in a rapidly developing track with substantial growth dividends that developed countries are vying for, so it needs to be viewed from a deeper perspective.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Technical approach to solving near-optimal</b></p><p>In choosing major strategic directions, Li Auto was not overly idealistic, but rather very realistic.</p><p>Back then, when Tesla decided to make electric cars, it started with luxury sports cars. It was only interested in Silicon Valley's tech tycoons who were wealthy, willing to try new technologies, and had a passion for contributing to environmental protection.</p><p>Behind this is actually a comprehensive business consideration. Electric vehicle technology is not yet mature, and with limited mass production, the price will inevitably be very high. If you rashly try to enter the grassroots market from the beginning, you will most likely be turned away and easily surrounded by gasoline vehicle manufacturers, or even die in the womb.</p><p>Therefore, starting with relatively differentiated markets was a prudent approach, and subsequent events have proven the success of Tesla's strategy.</p><p>The same applies to Li Auto. A review of its various strategic thinking lines reveals two very clear points.</p><p>First,<b>Starting with mid-to-large SUV models, like Nio, they value market acceptance and price advantages.</b>Over the past decade, SUVs have been popular with consumers due to their powerful engine and spacious interior, and the rising purchasing power of Chinese consumers has supported this SUV craze. Therefore, choosing an SUV model to enter the market can effectively spread costs, eliminate the price gap with similar gasoline vehicles, and make it easier for consumers to accept new energy vehicles.</p><p>Second,<b>The technological roadmap for range-extended range technology.</b>This is also the most controversial point in Li Auto. Why did Li Auto choose this route?</p><p>Let's take a look at the following pictures.</p><p>Comparing the three technology routes, you'll find that the range-extended technology route actually takes a clever approach between plug-in hybrids and HEV hybrids.</p><p>It can refuel and charge simultaneously like a plug-in hybrid, and also has the entire process of generating, storing, and discharging electricity through a fuel engine to drive the electric motor to provide power. However, it does not have the function of a fuel engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Like HEV hybrids, it can also be powered by refueling and then generating electricity from the gasoline engine, but it also does not have the function of the gasoline engine directly driving the wheels.</p><p>Anyone who has driven a gasoline-powered car knows that the engine is very noisy when running, and the fuel conversion efficiency is not high. Even with the most advanced technology, it is difficult to exceed 50%. This is precisely the thermal efficiency problem that gasoline-powered cars are often criticized for. But electric vehicles are different. The noise of the motor is much lower than that of a gasoline engine, and the power conversion efficiency is also higher, often reaching 80-90%.</p><p>Therefore, the advantage of range-extended electric vehicles lies in not only making full use of the advantage of electric motors replacing gasoline engines as a power source, but also retaining the benefit of \"being able to refuel\". This solves the problems of range anxiety, excessively long charging time, and too few charging piles in pure electric vehicles.</p><p><b>In other words, it uses the convenience of gasoline-powered vehicles to demonstrate the advantages of electric vehicles.</b></p><p>The new energy vehicle industry is extremely expensive. Li Bin, the owner of Nio, once famously said:<b>\"Don't make electric vehicles without 20 billion.\"</b></p><p>To be realistic, how many startup car companies can raise 20 billion yuan in a single investment?</p><p>Nio himself almost died because he lacked money, so he was able to survive smoothly and was qualified to talk about \"ideals\". The financing figures disclosed by Li Auto before its IPO were 14.6 billion yuan. If money were blindly burned in, the company might have already gone bankrupt before the car even came out.</p><p>Instead of blindly making grand pronouncements, we should start from the most pragmatic approach, with the goal of surviving before planning for the future. This is precisely the starting point and ultimate destination for Ideal to conduct strategic thinking.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Can ideal foresight be solved?</b></p><p>Like many technology-intensive industries, the choice of technology route is crucial for new energy vehicle companies.</p><p>From the perspective of short-term survival, there is nothing wrong with Li Auto's choice of range-extended technology, and facts have proven its correctness. In terms of annual sales, it is second only to Tesla and Nio, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are also significantly ahead of Nio and XPeng.</p><p>But if a person has no immediate worries, they must have long-term plans.</p><p>For Li Auto, this long-term vision is the pure electric technology route.</p><p>From the perspective of the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles are inevitable. They can better solve humanity's dependence on oil and provide support for more intelligent applications. Although range anxiety and charging convenience have not yet been well resolved, it is not impossible to solve these problems with the development of technology. This is precisely why, although the range-extended vehicle route has advantages, it has not been favored by many automakers, especially giants.<b>The automotive industry prefers to view range-extended range as a transitional solution rather than a final solution.</b></p><p>In terms of pure electric technology, Li Auto has no advantage and has not yet been interviewed for a pure electric model. Although Li Auto has recognized the importance of the pure electric route in its strategic planning and has focused on high-voltage fast charging technology, it will not be able to launch its first pure electric model until 2023 at the earliest.</p><p>The effectiveness remains to be seen, but technology and the market are changing rapidly. Although the penetration rate is still in the growth range, the competition for pure electric vehicles has become very daytime. All kinds of \"gods\", traditional, new and cross-industry, are fighting bare-handed. If it is difficult to compete, how much time will Li Auto have left to waste? If it cannot make a breakthrough quickly in the pure electric technology route, how long can Li Auto squander the benefits it has gained in the range-extended range route?</p><p>In research and development, Li Auto has benefited from range-extended electric vehicles, with costs significantly lower than those of its competitors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0ce8d4a224bf61d7f6462f03993e35\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, the opposite of being overly pragmatic can also be timidity. Once investment is increased, there will inevitably be a possibility of widening financial losses. Does Li Auto have enough courage to make a drastic decision?</p><p>According to post-hearing information, Li Auto is developing the X platform, which inherits the existing range-extended electric vehicle platform of the Li Auto ONE and is equipped with a next-generation range-extended electric powertrain. The company plans to launch its first product on the X platform – a full-size luxury program-extended electric SUV – in 2022, and launch two other SUVs on the X platform in 2023.</p><p><b>Clearly, one of Ideal's key focuses remains on the range-extended technology route. Can this address its long-term concerns?</b></p><p><b>4、</b><b>epilogue</b></p><p>As a new phenomenon, new energy vehicles are a combination of traditional automobiles and electronic products, embodying humanity's revolutionary ideals for modes of transportation. Who can come out on top in this battle depends on technological research and development.</p><p>The competition in technological research and development is primarily about strategic direction, followed by burning money and talent.</p><p>The choice of range-extended range enabled Li Auto to overcome the difficulties of its early stages of entrepreneurship, successfully survive, and do quite well.<b>However, relying solely on this technological approach, ideals cannot win the future.</b></p><p>Li Auto stated that it is investing heavily in high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology, developing two platforms for future high-voltage pure electric vehicles—Whale and Shark. Starting in 2022, all new Li Auto models will be equipped with the necessary hardware compatible with its self-developed future Level 4 autonomous driving as standard equipment, and has set a \"Li Auto\" goal of achieving a 20% market share within 5 years.</p><p>The ideal is very lofty.</p><p>Having successfully listed on the US stock market last year and now on the Hong Kong stock market, from the perspective of ample capital, the ideal is secured. The popularity of new energy vehicles since last year has allowed Li Auto to enjoy the glory of its stock price doubling.</p><p>However, when it comes to talent, the industry is already in a situation of \"too many applicants and too few porridge\". Even if Li Auto is willing to spend money, can it guarantee that it will find talent? Each of our competitors has a lot of money at their disposal. If we compete to throw money at each other, Li Auto may not be able to win against anyone.</p><p>Reality is harsh.</p><p>The return of ideals may be the beginning of the real challenge.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"160640":"新能源","399941":"新能源","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","000941.SH":"新能源","XPEV":"小鹏集团","09868":"小鹏集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108257936","content_text":"继小鹏汽车之后，理想汽车也回来了。\n7月26日，港交所文件显示，理想汽车通过港交所上市聆讯，将寻求作为具有不同投票权架构的发行人申请双重主要上市。\n虽然是国内三大造车新势力之一，但相比另外两个，理想汽车似乎要低调很多，诸多的经营指标也没有明显的优势，此次登陆港交所，又能否成为理想汽车新的起点，并在未来的竞争中完成逆袭？\n1、经营数据，理不理想？\n从产品上看，理想汽车只有一款六座中大型豪华电动SUV--理想ONE；销量上，2020年，理想卖出了32624辆，名列年度中国新能源汽车销量第六位，占市场份额2.8%，在仅生产新能源汽车的汽车制造商中排名第三。截至2021年6月30日，理想一共交付超过63000辆理想ONE。\n反观竞争对手，蔚来、小鹏都已量产两款以上的汽车产品，包括SUV和轿车，2020年蔚来的销量达到43728辆，高于理想，小鹏则是27006辆，相对低一点。但不同的是，竞争对手的都是纯电车型，而理想的增程式技术路线，多少沾了燃油车的方便性。\n在财务数据上，理想仍处于亏损状态。2019-2020年，理想汽车总收入分别约为2.84亿、94.57亿元，归属普通股东的净亏损分别为32.82亿元、7.92亿元，亏损有所收窄，而毛利上已经转正。\n\n但2021年前三个月总收入35.75亿元，归属普通股东的净亏损3.6亿元，相比去年同期，扩大了3.67倍，原因在于研发费用和营销费用增长较快。\n\n要布局未来，研发费用就得维持，而出于抢占市场的需要，营销费用也很难减少。换言之，两项费用短期内都有很难降下来，所以预计今年的净亏损额超过去年的可能性还很高。\n何时能够实现净利润转正，不好下判断，但这也是国内新势力普遍存在的问题。如果套用特斯拉经历的事情，净利润实现转正的那一年，总销量是50万辆，那国内新势力的盈利道路，还遥远得很。当然，“蔚小理”和特斯拉差别还很大，强行对比并没有太多意义，只是想说明，要真正实现盈利，道路还很漫长。\n不过，好在理想的月度销量还在持续增长，6月份还拿下了国内中大型SUV销量冠军，在总销量上也超越蔚来汽车，在发展趋势上是不错的。\n销售的持续给力，有赖于理想汽车在销售渠道方面的布局。截至2021年6月30日，在中国主要城市拥有97家零售门店，2021年7月10日，开设了第100家零售店。和特斯拉一样，理想将零售门店选址在目标用户可能光顾的购物中心，而非中心商业区或地标性建筑。\n而竞争对手小鹏的门店数量，包括直营店88家，特许经营店90家，合计178家，是理想的1.8倍，但是今年上半年理想和小鹏的销量都是3万辆左右，这也表明在单店销售效率上，理想是有优势的。\n综上的经营指标和财务数据，只是看到一个相对不错的变化趋势，很难套用常规的价值模型去量化投资价值。\n但理想汽车，正处于一个快速发展、增长红利很足且各发达国家都在争抢的赛道，所以得从更深层次的角度去看待它。\n2、技术路线，解决近优\n在重大的战略方向选择上，理想汽车并没有过多的理想主义，而是非常的现实。\n当年，特斯拉在决定做电动车时，是从豪华的跑车切入，看中的不过是硅谷的科技富豪们，既有钱，又乐意尝试新科技的心理，同时还有一份为环保贡献力量的济世情怀。\n这背后，其实是基于商业的通盘考虑，电动车技术尚未成熟，加上量产有限，价格必定很贵，如果一开始就贸贸然去敲基层市场的大门，结果大概率是吃闭门羹，而且很容易被燃油车厂联合围剿，甚至胎死腹中。\n所以，从相对差异化的市场入手，不失为一个稳妥做法，后来的事实也证明特斯拉这个战略的成功。\n理想汽车也一样，梳理一下它的各种战略思维脉络，有两点非常清晰。\n第一，从中大型SUV车型入手，和蔚来一样，它们看中的正是市场接受度和价格优势。过去十年，SUV凭借着强劲的动力、宽敞的空间，受到消费者的追捧，而国人不断上升的消费力则支撑起了这股SUV热潮。因此，选择SUV车型打入市场，能够很好地平摊成本，消除和同类型燃油车的价格差距，使得消费者更容易接受新能源汽车。\n第二，增程式的技术路线。这点也是理想汽车争议最多的地方，到底理想为何会选择这个路线？\n先看看下面几张图。\n三种技术路线一对比，你会发现，增程式技术路线其实是在插电式混合动力和HEV混合动力中间取了巧。\n它可以像插电式混动那样加油充电两不误，也具备通过燃油发动机发电、储备、放电后带动电机从而提供动力的全过程，但它没有燃油发动机直接带动车轮的功能。\n它也可以像HEV混动那样仅仅通过加油，然后由燃油车发动机发电提供动力，但它同样没有燃油发动机直接带动车轮的功能。\n开过燃油车的人都知道，发动机转动时噪音很大，而且燃油的转化效率并不高，即使最牛的技术，也很难超过50%，这正是燃油车常常被诟病的热效率问题。但电动车就不一样，电机转动的噪音比燃油发动机低很多，动力转换效率也更高，常常可以达到80-90%。\n所以，增程式的优势就在于，既充分利用了电机代替燃油发动机作为动力来源的优势，又保留了“可以加油”的好处，这就解决纯电车型里程焦虑、充电时间过长、充电桩太少的问题。\n换句话说，就是用燃油车的方便性，开出了电动车的优越性。\n新能源车这个行当非常烧钱，蔚来的老板李斌有过一句名言：“没有200亿，不要做电动车。”\n实事求是地问，有多少创业车企一出手就能拿到200亿？\n蔚来自己都差点因为缺钱挂掉，所以能够顺利活下来，才有资格去谈“理想”。理想汽车上市前披露的融资数据，是146亿，如果盲目地烧钱进去，很可能车都没出来，公司就已经挂了。\n不盲目吹大炮，从最务实的路线出发，目标是活下来，再谋划未来的大局，这正是理想做战略思考的出发点，也是最终归宿。\n3、理想的远虑，能解决吗？\n和很多技术密集型行业一样，技术路线的选择对于新能源汽车公司来说，非常重要。\n从短期活下来的角度看，理想选择增程式技术路线无可否非，事实也证明它的正确性，年度销量上，它仅次于特斯拉和蔚来，毛利率和净利率也大幅领先蔚来和小鹏。\n但人无近忧，必有远虑。\n对于理想汽车，这个远虑，就是纯电技术路线。\n从长远的新能源车发展趋势上，纯电是必然，它能更好地解决人类对于石油的依赖，以及为更多智能化的落地运用提供支撑，虽然里程焦虑、充电便利性问题至今还没有很好地解决，但随着技术的发展，要解决这些问题并非不可能。这也正是增程式路线虽然有优势，但也并没有受到太多车企尤其是巨头的青睐的原因，汽车界更愿意将增程式视为过渡方案，而不是终极方案。\n在纯电技术上，理想并没有优势，至今也没有一辆纯电车型面试。虽然在战略规划上，理想已经意识纯电路线的重要性，重点押注了高压快充技术，但最快也得2023年才能推出首款纯电车型。\n效果如何未可知，但技术和市场的变化日新月异，虽然渗透率还处在增长区间，但纯电车竞争已非常白日化，各路“神仙”，传统的、新的、跨界的，都赤膊上阵，争得不好开交，理想汽车还有多少时间去消耗，如果不能在纯电技术路线上迅速取得突破，理想在增程式路线上获得好处，还能挥霍多久？\n在研发，理想汽车吃过增程式的好处，费用上大幅低于竞争对手。\n\n但过分务实的反面，也可以是畏首畏尾，一旦加大投入，财务上必然会出现亏损扩大的可能性，理想又有没有足够的魄力去壮士断腕？\n据聆讯后资料显示，理想汽车正在开发X平台，它继承了理想ONE现有的增程序电动汽车平台，并配备了下一代增程电动动力系统。公司计划于2022年推出X平台上的首款产品——全尺寸豪华增程序电动SUV，并于2023年在X平台上推出另外两款SUV。\n很明显，理想的重点之一仍然在增程式技术路线上，这能够解决它的远虑吗？\n4、结语\n新能源汽车作为新生事物，是传统汽车和电子产品的合体，承载了人类对出行方式的革命理想，谁能够在这场大战中走到最后，取决于技术研发。\n而技术研发比拼的，首先是战略方向，其次才是烧钱和人才。\n增程式的选择令理想度过了创业初期的艰难，成功地活下来，而且活得还不错。但仅仅依靠这个技术路线，理想不可能赢得未来。\n理想表示正大力投资高压纯电动汽车技术，为未来的高压纯电动车型开发两个平台—Whale及Shark，并自2022年起，理想汽车的所有新车型将配有与自主开发的未来L4级自动驾驶兼容的必要硬件作为标配，并立下“理想”--5年内占20%市场份额。\n理想很丰满。\n去年顺利登陆美股，现在又来到港股，从资本充裕的角度，理想是有着落了。而去年至今新能源汽车的火热，也让理想享受了股价翻倍的高光。\n但在人才的问题，行业已经是“僧多粥少”的情况，即使理想愿意砸钱，就能够保证一定找得到人才吗？竞争对手个个都手握重金，比砸钱，理想不一定能稳赢过谁？\n现实很骨感。\n理想的回归，或许才是真正挑战的开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"160640":0.9,"399941":0.9,"LI":0.9,"09868":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"000941.SH":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177917604,"gmtCreate":1627175598008,"gmtModify":1703485010052,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177917604","repostId":"2154939392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"l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21:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131487400","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","content":"<p>On July 21, the US lithium battery sector strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chilean mining and chemical industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle, Inc.</a>Lithium Americas Both rose by more than 3%. Bank of America states that the global supply of electric vehicle batteries could run out as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 21, the US lithium battery sector strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chilean mining and chemical industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle, Inc.</a>Lithium Americas Both rose by more than 3%. Bank of America states that the global supply of electric vehicle batteries could run out as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"LTHM":"Livent Corp.","SQM":"智利矿业化工","ALB":"美国雅保"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131487400","content_text":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALB":0.9,"LTHM":0.9,"SQM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171991770,"gmtCreate":1626701365790,"gmtModify":1703763586415,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171991770","repostId":"2152763544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152763544","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626676742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152763544?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 14:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152763544","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息”\n7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。\n整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派","content":"<p><h3>I.<b>Topic Commentary: \"New Information\" in Powell's Testimony</b></h3>On July 14, the Federal Reserve released Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to be submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on July 15, as well as the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p><b>Overall, Powell's speech remained dovish. This is reflected in: \"touting\" the positive impact of loose monetary policy on the US economy, believing that the labor market still has a long way to go to recover, emphasizing that the rise in inflation is mainly due to the base effect and supply chain bottlenecks, not worrying about the fragility of the financial system, and emphasizing that the US economy has not yet made the \"substantial further progress\" needed to implement Taper, and that there will be \"advance notice\" before Taper.</b></p><p>After Powell's testimony was released, the market also felt the familiar \"dovish voice,\" and the market panic caused by the surge in US inflation indicators in June eased slightly. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by more than 5 basis points, and the US Dollar Index declined in the short term. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has stopped Treasury Bond purchases, and the Bank of Canada has begun implementing Taper.<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve is still trying to \"avoid a sharp turn,\" but if the US job market recovers as expected and inflation indicators remain high in the near future, coupled with foreign central banks taking the lead, then the Fed's \"excuse\" will be even less sufficient, and we still need to be wary of the risk that the Fed's policy shift will come \"earlier\" or \"stronger\" than expected.</b></p><p>Specifically, the key information in Powell's testimony includes:</p><p><b>1) The US economy is recovering rapidly, but supply chain bottlenecks are affecting some industries.</b>Powell believes that the reopening and strong economic growth of the U.S. economy in the first half of 2021 were partly helped by COVID-19 vaccinations, but also inseparable from the support of loose monetary and fiscal policies. Most notably, household spending is growing at a particularly rapid pace, housing demand is very strong, and business investment is steadily increasing. At the same time, however, supply constraints have restricted activity in some industries, most notably the automotive sector. So far this year, a global semiconductor shortage has significantly reduced production in the automotive industry.</p><p><b>2) Labor market conditions continue to improve, but there is still a long way to go.</b>Powell believes that labor demand in the United States appears to be very strong, with job vacancies currently at record highs, hiring momentum strong, and many people leaving to seek better jobs. U.S. employers added 1.7 million workers in April and June. However, the U.S. unemployment rate remained as high as 5.9% in June, and this figure underestimates the insufficiency of the job recovery, as the labor force participation rate remains low. However, as the pandemic improves and its impact on employment diminishes, U.S. job growth should be strong in the coming months. In addition, he emphasized that employment for low-income groups and people of color has been more affected and needs to be restored.</p><p><b>3) The inflation rate has risen significantly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before easing.</b>Powell believes that firstly, the base effect temporarily pushed up inflation, and secondly, against the backdrop of strong demand, supply bottlenecks led to a rapid rise in the prices of certain goods and services. However, as supply chain bottlenecks ease in the future, this situation should be reversed to some extent. In recent months, service prices, which have been severely affected by the pandemic, have also risen sharply as demand in the service sector increases significantly as the economy reopens. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy framework, seeking to stabilize long-term inflation expectations at 2%, and that indicators measuring long-term inflation expectations have rebounded from their lows and are currently in a range roughly consistent with the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target.</p><p><b>4) The Federal Reserve is not yet worried about asset prices and the vulnerability of the financial system.</b>Powell stated that sustainable employment maximization and price stability depend on a stable financial system, and therefore the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the vulnerabilities of the financial system. However, despite the general rise in valuations of various assets as fundamentals improve and investors' risk appetite increases, U.S. household balance sheets remain quite strong, corporate leverage levels have been declining from high levels, and institutions at the core of the financial system remain resilient.</p><p><b>5) Powell continues to deny that the economy has made \"substantial further progress\" and maintains a dovish stance.</b>Powell stated that the combination of \"zero interest rates\" and asset purchases, coupled with \"strong guidance\" on interest rates and balance sheets, will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the U.S. economy until the recovery is complete. It reiterated the main point of the June FOMC meeting: for interest rate adjustments, it is necessary to wait until the economy has truly achieved its maximum employment and long-term inflation targets; For asset purchases, the current pace will be maintained at least until \"substantial further progress\" is achieved. Powell further revealed that at the June policy meeting, the committee discussed the progress made by the U.S. economy since December of last year. Although it is still some distance from meeting the standard of \"substantial further progress,\" progress is expected to continue. The Federal Reserve will continue to discuss these issues at future meetings. The Federal Reserve will provide advance notice before announcing any changes to its asset purchase decisions.</p><p><h3><b>II.</b><b>Overseas economic tracking</b></h3>1</p><p><b>US Economy: Inflation hit a new high in June, while consumption of non-durable goods and services gradually picked up momentum.</b></p><p>The US CPI continued to hit a new high year-on-year in June, surging 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average growth rate over the past five years (around 0.2%). Looking at the breakdown items, most of them are accelerating month-on-month.<b>The most \"exaggerated\" aspect was the 3.6% month-on-month increase in transportation (compared to 2.1% in the previous month), which was still due to the rise in used car prices.</b>Currently, it is difficult to determine the inflection point of used car price growth, but it may still have an unexpected boosting effect on the US CPI in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc1d3f271ec0d93b01c0be754f4b07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The US PPI also saw record year-on-year and month-on-month growth in June, with all sub-items rising month-on-month, with the \"trade\" sub-item surging by 2.1% month-on-month. In the past month,<b>Rising international oil prices have not only directly increased the cost pressure of energy products, but have also led to rising international freight rates and a significant increase in the prices of imported goods from the United States.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788dd66c7ab2ea169c154ddbe5b870c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>U.S. retail sales rose slightly by 0.55% month-on-month in June, better than expected and the previous value.<b>The structural changes in retail sales are noteworthy, with \"small items\" selling better than \"large items\".</b>Sales of department stores, clothing and accessories, and food and beverages continued to rise, while sales of automobiles, furniture and home decoration, and building materials continued to decline. We continue to emphasize that in the second half of the year, U.S. consumption power will shift from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, and service consumption accounts for the majority of U.S. residents' consumption, so there is still ample room for consumption growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2db4d79190094ea518b852220b8f58\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for July in the United States fell significantly.</b>Rapidly rising prices and expectations of a marginal slowdown in the US economy may have dampened consumer confidence to some extent. However,<b>Employment indicators still send optimistic signals.</b>In the week ending July 3, the number of continuous jobless claims in the United States fell significantly by 126,000 to 3.241 million, and the latest number of initial jobless claims also continued to decline. As additional unemployment benefits in the United States gradually expire, there is still hope for a rapid recovery in U.S. employment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912f8e51be197290db777f52cf9d37ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2</p><p><b>Overseas Epidemic and Vaccine Tracking: A New Wave of the Global Epidemic Hits</b></p><p><b>Since late June, and especially since July, the world may be at the starting point of a new wave of the pandemic.</b>This followed a significant resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, which posed a certain degree of threat to the global economy. However, the epidemic in India has gradually eased, and the new wave of the epidemic has affected a wider area. Currently, many regions are affected by the Delta virus, and the number of new confirmed cases has risen again. In Europe, the UK was the first to see a surge in the epidemic and is approaching its peak in January this year. However, the UK will fully lift its lockdown on July 19 (restrictions such as wearing masks, social distancing of 1 meter, working from home, and crowd density in public places will be lifted), which is a noteworthy new development in global epidemic prevention policies. In the past week, new confirmed cases in France have also shown signs of rising, while the epidemic situation in other EU countries such as Germany and Italy remains stable. The COVID-19 situation in Japan has only recently eased and has risen significantly in the past week. With the Olympics approaching, the risks of the epidemic have attracted global attention. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries has been fluctuating, with countries such as Vietnam and Thailand experiencing significant deterioration recently, and related stock markets have also been significantly impacted. The Israeli epidemic has also unexpectedly rebounded, and the effectiveness of vaccination against the new virus may be \"discounted\". However, a closer look at the UK epidemic data shows that vaccination has greatly reduced the mortality rate. It is not impossible that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to survive like the flu, but its impact will be controllable. But,<b>Concerns about the global pandemic are, to some extent, cooling risk appetite in the capital market recently, raising questions about reflation trading and warranting continued attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbf848a54d0d9c8c1eccaec1359aa62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd919d9bf8e9457c68df716ef4280cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9bae175032440d3c388e9ca605b33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">III. Global Asset</p><p>1</p><p><b>Global stock markets – emerging markets rebound, developed markets correct</b></p><p>Emerging markets, especially Asian emerging market stocks, have been underperforming developed markets since late June due to a resurgence of the pandemic and wariness of \"austerity panic\". In the past week, a rebound has finally occurred, with stock indices in major markets such as South Korea, India, Taiwan, Mexico, China (ChiNext and CSI 300), Indonesia, and Brazil all rising. Meanwhile, most developed market stock markets corrected, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%) fell less than the Nasdaq Industrial Average (-1.9%), indicating that cyclical sectors in the US stock market showed stronger resilience.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese stock market has suffered a severe blow in the past two weeks.</b>On July 14, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City Index fell by nearly 10% compared to July 2. Vietnam's stock market has performed exceptionally well this year, maintaining a one-sided upward trend until July. Vietnam's strong export performance is the cornerstone of market confidence. According to Vietnamplus, Vietnam's merchandise exports increased by 28.4% year-on-year in the first half of this year. But please note<b>Possible changes in confidence in the Vietnamese market following a marginal slowdown in external demand in the second half of the year.</b>On July 5, 11 and 16, Vietnam reported more than 1,000, 2,000 and 4,000 new confirmed cases in a single day, respectively, while before May this year, the number had not exceeded 100. The sudden surge in the pandemic is likely the trigger for this stock market correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9691c486b0bd2aec0923cc0031fc6e38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98124ab0b82d7230c0778dd983cb3221\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2</p><p><b>Global Bond Market – 10-Year US Treasury Yield Falls Below -1%</b></p><p>Over the past week, long-term US Treasury yields have continued to decline, with yields on 7-year and above US Treasury bonds falling 4-6 basis points throughout the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 1.31% for the week, with the 10-year TIPS (real) yield falling 11 basis points to -1.02%, and implied inflation expectations rising 5 basis points to 2.33%.<b>On July 15, the 10-year TIPS rate fell below -1%, hitting a new low since February 12. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recently fallen to an unimaginable low, mainly due to a lack of market confidence in the US economic outlook.</b>On the one hand, the reduction in the size of the US fiscal plan has lowered the market's medium- to long-term inflation expectations for the US. Furthermore, although inflation indicators are still \"off the charts\" in the short term, it is difficult for the market to continue making significant bets because inflation expectations are already at historical highs. However, factors such as the slowdown in vaccination rates and the disturbance of mutated viruses. This exacerbated market concerns about whether \"herd immunity\" could be achieved in the second half of the year and whether economic activity could resume on time, leading to a significant decline in real US Treasury yields. In the early stages, the market had largely incorporated optimistic expectations into asset pricing, resulting in continuously record highs in US stocks and US corporate bonds. Recently, the market has undoubtedly been experiencing huge changes in expectations. In the global bond market, 10-year Treasury Bond/Treasury yields continued to rise along with US Treasury yields in most regions, but Treasury Bond yields rose in regions such as Thailand and Malaysia due to the sharp deterioration of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926368c7d4bdf8bf2910663929dca4d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc40a8708bcb3030bf1e3a9a8e42a388\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3</p><p><b>Commodity market – Oil prices fell, while ferrous metals rose continuously.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>rebound</b></p><p>International oil prices have corrected significantly in the past week, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices falling 3.7% and 2.6% respectively, closing at $71.81 and $73.59 per barrel. However, in the week ending July 9, EIA U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline by 7.9 million barrels, a rate of decline roughly the same as the previous two weeks. The main reason for the fluctuations in oil prices over the past week is changes in supply and demand expectations: on the supply side, the resumption of negotiations between the UAE and OPEC means that the production increase plan is expected to proceed smoothly (Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the UAE's production cut benchmark in exchange for the UAE agreeing to extend the overall production cut agreement from April 2022 to the end of that year). On the demand side, the recent disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and market concerns about the US economy \"peaking\" may, to some extent, make the market more cautious in its assessment of crude oil demand.<b>In our report, \"Will Oil Prices Be the Next 'Gray Rhino'?\", we pointed out that supply constraints are key to oil price trends in the second half of the year. Currently, it is highly likely that US shale oil production increases will be limited, and close attention needs to be paid to whether OPEC+ can uphold its previous production increase commitments. If there is no significant increase in production, international oil prices may fluctuate at a high level of $70-80 per barrel in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>Domestic prices of ferrous metals (iron ore, rebar, thermal coal, etc.) have risen for 2-3 consecutive weeks. In our March report, \"Has the 'Super Cycle' of Commodities Arrived?\", we warned of the risks of a \"green bubble\" because behind the rise in copper prices, in addition to the real supply and demand contradiction, there is also speculation and support from the capital market. After a significant correction in mid-June, LME copper prices have recently fluctuated narrowly within a range of $9,100-9,500 per ton. Currently, LME copper inventories have risen to their highest level in nearly a year, and the reduction in \"Biden infrastructure\" has also put pressure on demand expectations, showing some signs of easing the tight copper supply and demand situation.<b>In the near future, market inflation expectations and risk appetite may also decline from high levels, making it more difficult for copper prices to rise and likely to experience more volatility.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e6ad7c58aefe649d33c4ac2321641d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880f378ea54447226750849c934fe3a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4</p><p><b>Foreign Exchange Market – the US Dollar Index Hits New High Since Q2</b></p><p>On July 13, the the US Dollar Index rose to 92.79, surpassing the previous high of 92.72 on July 7 and reaching a new high since April this year.<b>How should we understand the relationship between the recent decline in US Treasury yields and the appreciation of the US dollar? We believe that attention needs to be paid to the difference between vertical and horizontal comparisons of the US economy.</b>Recently, the US Treasury market has been trading as the US economy has \"peaked,\" which is the main driving force behind the significant decline in US Treasury yields. However, with the recent resurgence of the epidemic in many places, including the UK, the economic outlook for non-US regions outside the Eurozone remains worrying. Therefore, the relative performance of the US economy this year remains \"outstanding,\" and market expectations for a stronger dollar are constantly strengthening. We maintain our view that the US dollar is likely to strengthen in stages in the second half of the year (see our report \"The Next Steps for the US Dollar\"). In addition, some new changes have recently supported the strengthening of the US dollar: after the European Central Bank adjusted its monetary policy decision, the ECB may further accelerate its balance sheet expansion and delay Taper. The difference in the pace of monetary policy between the US and European central banks may further release the room for the US dollar to appreciate against the euro. It is worth noting that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US dollar has mainly depreciated against developed markets, while its value against emerging markets this year has remained basically the same as in the second half of 2019. This may mean that the room for currency depreciation in emerging markets is relatively limited. In the past week, Bitcoin prices have hit a new low since February this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b6b3535060790986839dc811272b2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2421b79d6ce17f8f080b339b33ea9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the \"new information\" in Powell's testimony?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 14:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3>I.<b>Topic Commentary: \"New Information\" in Powell's Testimony</b></h3>On July 14, the Federal Reserve released Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to be submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on July 15, as well as the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p><b>Overall, Powell's speech remained dovish. This is reflected in: \"touting\" the positive impact of loose monetary policy on the US economy, believing that the labor market still has a long way to go to recover, emphasizing that the rise in inflation is mainly due to the base effect and supply chain bottlenecks, not worrying about the fragility of the financial system, and emphasizing that the US economy has not yet made the \"substantial further progress\" needed to implement Taper, and that there will be \"advance notice\" before Taper.</b></p><p>After Powell's testimony was released, the market also felt the familiar \"dovish voice,\" and the market panic caused by the surge in US inflation indicators in June eased slightly. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by more than 5 basis points, and the US Dollar Index declined in the short term. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has stopped Treasury Bond purchases, and the Bank of Canada has begun implementing Taper.<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve is still trying to \"avoid a sharp turn,\" but if the US job market recovers as expected and inflation indicators remain high in the near future, coupled with foreign central banks taking the lead, then the Fed's \"excuse\" will be even less sufficient, and we still need to be wary of the risk that the Fed's policy shift will come \"earlier\" or \"stronger\" than expected.</b></p><p>Specifically, the key information in Powell's testimony includes:</p><p><b>1) The US economy is recovering rapidly, but supply chain bottlenecks are affecting some industries.</b>Powell believes that the reopening and strong economic growth of the U.S. economy in the first half of 2021 were partly helped by COVID-19 vaccinations, but also inseparable from the support of loose monetary and fiscal policies. Most notably, household spending is growing at a particularly rapid pace, housing demand is very strong, and business investment is steadily increasing. At the same time, however, supply constraints have restricted activity in some industries, most notably the automotive sector. So far this year, a global semiconductor shortage has significantly reduced production in the automotive industry.</p><p><b>2) Labor market conditions continue to improve, but there is still a long way to go.</b>Powell believes that labor demand in the United States appears to be very strong, with job vacancies currently at record highs, hiring momentum strong, and many people leaving to seek better jobs. U.S. employers added 1.7 million workers in April and June. However, the U.S. unemployment rate remained as high as 5.9% in June, and this figure underestimates the insufficiency of the job recovery, as the labor force participation rate remains low. However, as the pandemic improves and its impact on employment diminishes, U.S. job growth should be strong in the coming months. In addition, he emphasized that employment for low-income groups and people of color has been more affected and needs to be restored.</p><p><b>3) The inflation rate has risen significantly and is likely to remain high in the coming months before easing.</b>Powell believes that firstly, the base effect temporarily pushed up inflation, and secondly, against the backdrop of strong demand, supply bottlenecks led to a rapid rise in the prices of certain goods and services. However, as supply chain bottlenecks ease in the future, this situation should be reversed to some extent. In recent months, service prices, which have been severely affected by the pandemic, have also risen sharply as demand in the service sector increases significantly as the economy reopens. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy framework, seeking to stabilize long-term inflation expectations at 2%, and that indicators measuring long-term inflation expectations have rebounded from their lows and are currently in a range roughly consistent with the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target.</p><p><b>4) The Federal Reserve is not yet worried about asset prices and the vulnerability of the financial system.</b>Powell stated that sustainable employment maximization and price stability depend on a stable financial system, and therefore the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the vulnerabilities of the financial system. However, despite the general rise in valuations of various assets as fundamentals improve and investors' risk appetite increases, U.S. household balance sheets remain quite strong, corporate leverage levels have been declining from high levels, and institutions at the core of the financial system remain resilient.</p><p><b>5) Powell continues to deny that the economy has made \"substantial further progress\" and maintains a dovish stance.</b>Powell stated that the combination of \"zero interest rates\" and asset purchases, coupled with \"strong guidance\" on interest rates and balance sheets, will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support for the U.S. economy until the recovery is complete. It reiterated the main point of the June FOMC meeting: for interest rate adjustments, it is necessary to wait until the economy has truly achieved its maximum employment and long-term inflation targets; For asset purchases, the current pace will be maintained at least until \"substantial further progress\" is achieved. Powell further revealed that at the June policy meeting, the committee discussed the progress made by the U.S. economy since December of last year. Although it is still some distance from meeting the standard of \"substantial further progress,\" progress is expected to continue. The Federal Reserve will continue to discuss these issues at future meetings. The Federal Reserve will provide advance notice before announcing any changes to its asset purchase decisions.</p><p><h3><b>II.</b><b>Overseas economic tracking</b></h3>1</p><p><b>US Economy: Inflation hit a new high in June, while consumption of non-durable goods and services gradually picked up momentum.</b></p><p>The US CPI continued to hit a new high year-on-year in June, surging 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average growth rate over the past five years (around 0.2%). Looking at the breakdown items, most of them are accelerating month-on-month.<b>The most \"exaggerated\" aspect was the 3.6% month-on-month increase in transportation (compared to 2.1% in the previous month), which was still due to the rise in used car prices.</b>Currently, it is difficult to determine the inflection point of used car price growth, but it may still have an unexpected boosting effect on the US CPI in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc1d3f271ec0d93b01c0be754f4b07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The US PPI also saw record year-on-year and month-on-month growth in June, with all sub-items rising month-on-month, with the \"trade\" sub-item surging by 2.1% month-on-month. In the past month,<b>Rising international oil prices have not only directly increased the cost pressure of energy products, but have also led to rising international freight rates and a significant increase in the prices of imported goods from the United States.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788dd66c7ab2ea169c154ddbe5b870c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>U.S. retail sales rose slightly by 0.55% month-on-month in June, better than expected and the previous value.<b>The structural changes in retail sales are noteworthy, with \"small items\" selling better than \"large items\".</b>Sales of department stores, clothing and accessories, and food and beverages continued to rise, while sales of automobiles, furniture and home decoration, and building materials continued to decline. We continue to emphasize that in the second half of the year, U.S. consumption power will shift from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, and service consumption accounts for the majority of U.S. residents' consumption, so there is still ample room for consumption growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2db4d79190094ea518b852220b8f58\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for July in the United States fell significantly.</b>Rapidly rising prices and expectations of a marginal slowdown in the US economy may have dampened consumer confidence to some extent. However,<b>Employment indicators still send optimistic signals.</b>In the week ending July 3, the number of continuous jobless claims in the United States fell significantly by 126,000 to 3.241 million, and the latest number of initial jobless claims also continued to decline. As additional unemployment benefits in the United States gradually expire, there is still hope for a rapid recovery in U.S. employment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/912f8e51be197290db777f52cf9d37ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2</p><p><b>Overseas Epidemic and Vaccine Tracking: A New Wave of the Global Epidemic Hits</b></p><p><b>Since late June, and especially since July, the world may be at the starting point of a new wave of the pandemic.</b>This followed a significant resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, which posed a certain degree of threat to the global economy. However, the epidemic in India has gradually eased, and the new wave of the epidemic has affected a wider area. Currently, many regions are affected by the Delta virus, and the number of new confirmed cases has risen again. In Europe, the UK was the first to see a surge in the epidemic and is approaching its peak in January this year. However, the UK will fully lift its lockdown on July 19 (restrictions such as wearing masks, social distancing of 1 meter, working from home, and crowd density in public places will be lifted), which is a noteworthy new development in global epidemic prevention policies. In the past week, new confirmed cases in France have also shown signs of rising, while the epidemic situation in other EU countries such as Germany and Italy remains stable. The COVID-19 situation in Japan has only recently eased and has risen significantly in the past week. With the Olympics approaching, the risks of the epidemic have attracted global attention. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries has been fluctuating, with countries such as Vietnam and Thailand experiencing significant deterioration recently, and related stock markets have also been significantly impacted. The Israeli epidemic has also unexpectedly rebounded, and the effectiveness of vaccination against the new virus may be \"discounted\". However, a closer look at the UK epidemic data shows that vaccination has greatly reduced the mortality rate. It is not impossible that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to survive like the flu, but its impact will be controllable. But,<b>Concerns about the global pandemic are, to some extent, cooling risk appetite in the capital market recently, raising questions about reflation trading and warranting continued attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbf848a54d0d9c8c1eccaec1359aa62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd919d9bf8e9457c68df716ef4280cc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9bae175032440d3c388e9ca605b33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">III. Global Asset</p><p>1</p><p><b>Global stock markets – emerging markets rebound, developed markets correct</b></p><p>Emerging markets, especially Asian emerging market stocks, have been underperforming developed markets since late June due to a resurgence of the pandemic and wariness of \"austerity panic\". In the past week, a rebound has finally occurred, with stock indices in major markets such as South Korea, India, Taiwan, Mexico, China (ChiNext and CSI 300), Indonesia, and Brazil all rising. Meanwhile, most developed market stock markets corrected, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%) fell less than the Nasdaq Industrial Average (-1.9%), indicating that cyclical sectors in the US stock market showed stronger resilience.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese stock market has suffered a severe blow in the past two weeks.</b>On July 14, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City Index fell by nearly 10% compared to July 2. Vietnam's stock market has performed exceptionally well this year, maintaining a one-sided upward trend until July. Vietnam's strong export performance is the cornerstone of market confidence. According to Vietnamplus, Vietnam's merchandise exports increased by 28.4% year-on-year in the first half of this year. But please note<b>Possible changes in confidence in the Vietnamese market following a marginal slowdown in external demand in the second half of the year.</b>On July 5, 11 and 16, Vietnam reported more than 1,000, 2,000 and 4,000 new confirmed cases in a single day, respectively, while before May this year, the number had not exceeded 100. The sudden surge in the pandemic is likely the trigger for this stock market correction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9691c486b0bd2aec0923cc0031fc6e38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98124ab0b82d7230c0778dd983cb3221\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2</p><p><b>Global Bond Market – 10-Year US Treasury Yield Falls Below -1%</b></p><p>Over the past week, long-term US Treasury yields have continued to decline, with yields on 7-year and above US Treasury bonds falling 4-6 basis points throughout the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 1.31% for the week, with the 10-year TIPS (real) yield falling 11 basis points to -1.02%, and implied inflation expectations rising 5 basis points to 2.33%.<b>On July 15, the 10-year TIPS rate fell below -1%, hitting a new low since February 12. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has recently fallen to an unimaginable low, mainly due to a lack of market confidence in the US economic outlook.</b>On the one hand, the reduction in the size of the US fiscal plan has lowered the market's medium- to long-term inflation expectations for the US. Furthermore, although inflation indicators are still \"off the charts\" in the short term, it is difficult for the market to continue making significant bets because inflation expectations are already at historical highs. However, factors such as the slowdown in vaccination rates and the disturbance of mutated viruses. This exacerbated market concerns about whether \"herd immunity\" could be achieved in the second half of the year and whether economic activity could resume on time, leading to a significant decline in real US Treasury yields. In the early stages, the market had largely incorporated optimistic expectations into asset pricing, resulting in continuously record highs in US stocks and US corporate bonds. Recently, the market has undoubtedly been experiencing huge changes in expectations. In the global bond market, 10-year Treasury Bond/Treasury yields continued to rise along with US Treasury yields in most regions, but Treasury Bond yields rose in regions such as Thailand and Malaysia due to the sharp deterioration of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926368c7d4bdf8bf2910663929dca4d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc40a8708bcb3030bf1e3a9a8e42a388\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3</p><p><b>Commodity market – Oil prices fell, while ferrous metals rose continuously.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>rebound</b></p><p>International oil prices have corrected significantly in the past week, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices falling 3.7% and 2.6% respectively, closing at $71.81 and $73.59 per barrel. However, in the week ending July 9, EIA U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline by 7.9 million barrels, a rate of decline roughly the same as the previous two weeks. The main reason for the fluctuations in oil prices over the past week is changes in supply and demand expectations: on the supply side, the resumption of negotiations between the UAE and OPEC means that the production increase plan is expected to proceed smoothly (Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the UAE's production cut benchmark in exchange for the UAE agreeing to extend the overall production cut agreement from April 2022 to the end of that year). On the demand side, the recent disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and market concerns about the US economy \"peaking\" may, to some extent, make the market more cautious in its assessment of crude oil demand.<b>In our report, \"Will Oil Prices Be the Next 'Gray Rhino'?\", we pointed out that supply constraints are key to oil price trends in the second half of the year. Currently, it is highly likely that US shale oil production increases will be limited, and close attention needs to be paid to whether OPEC+ can uphold its previous production increase commitments. If there is no significant increase in production, international oil prices may fluctuate at a high level of $70-80 per barrel in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>Domestic prices of ferrous metals (iron ore, rebar, thermal coal, etc.) have risen for 2-3 consecutive weeks. In our March report, \"Has the 'Super Cycle' of Commodities Arrived?\", we warned of the risks of a \"green bubble\" because behind the rise in copper prices, in addition to the real supply and demand contradiction, there is also speculation and support from the capital market. After a significant correction in mid-June, LME copper prices have recently fluctuated narrowly within a range of $9,100-9,500 per ton. Currently, LME copper inventories have risen to their highest level in nearly a year, and the reduction in \"Biden infrastructure\" has also put pressure on demand expectations, showing some signs of easing the tight copper supply and demand situation.<b>In the near future, market inflation expectations and risk appetite may also decline from high levels, making it more difficult for copper prices to rise and likely to experience more volatility.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e6ad7c58aefe649d33c4ac2321641d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880f378ea54447226750849c934fe3a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4</p><p><b>Foreign Exchange Market – the US Dollar Index Hits New High Since Q2</b></p><p>On July 13, the the US Dollar Index rose to 92.79, surpassing the previous high of 92.72 on July 7 and reaching a new high since April this year.<b>How should we understand the relationship between the recent decline in US Treasury yields and the appreciation of the US dollar? We believe that attention needs to be paid to the difference between vertical and horizontal comparisons of the US economy.</b>Recently, the US Treasury market has been trading as the US economy has \"peaked,\" which is the main driving force behind the significant decline in US Treasury yields. However, with the recent resurgence of the epidemic in many places, including the UK, the economic outlook for non-US regions outside the Eurozone remains worrying. Therefore, the relative performance of the US economy this year remains \"outstanding,\" and market expectations for a stronger dollar are constantly strengthening. We maintain our view that the US dollar is likely to strengthen in stages in the second half of the year (see our report \"The Next Steps for the US Dollar\"). In addition, some new changes have recently supported the strengthening of the US dollar: after the European Central Bank adjusted its monetary policy decision, the ECB may further accelerate its balance sheet expansion and delay Taper. The difference in the pace of monetary policy between the US and European central banks may further release the room for the US dollar to appreciate against the euro. It is worth noting that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US dollar has mainly depreciated against developed markets, while its value against emerging markets this year has remained basically the same as in the second half of 2019. This may mean that the room for currency depreciation in emerging markets is relatively limited. In the past week, Bitcoin prices have hit a new low since February this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b6b3535060790986839dc811272b2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d2421b79d6ce17f8f080b339b33ea9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476315\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f265653009ef8be3e9588861c69d25","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476315","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2152763544","content_text":"一、主题评论：鲍威尔证词里的“新信息”\n7月14日，美联储公布了主席鲍威尔将于7月15日向美国参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会提交的证词，以及美联储半年度货币政策报告。\n整体而言，鲍威尔的讲话维持鸽派。这体现在：“标榜”宽松的货币政策对美国经济的积极影响，认为劳动力市场恢复还有很长的路要走，强调通胀率走高主要是基数效应与供应链瓶颈所致，不担心金融体系的脆弱性，以及强调美国经济尚未取得实施Taper所需的“实质性进一步进展”、Taper前会“提前通知”等。\n鲍威尔的证词公布后，市场亦感受到了熟悉的“鸽声”，6月美国通胀指标蹿升带来的市场恐慌稍有缓解。标普500指数盘中创新高，10年期美债收益率最深跌超5个基点，美元指数短线走低。值得注意的是，目前新西兰央行已经停止国债购买，加拿大央行已经开始实施Taper。我们认为，美联储仍在试图“不急转弯”，但未来一段时间如果美国就业市场如期恢复，通胀指标居高不下，加上外国央行“抢跑”，那么美联储的“借口”将更加不足，仍需警惕美联储政策转向比预期来得“更早”，或力度“更大”的风险。\n具体来看，鲍威尔证词中的重点信息包括：\n1）美国经济快速恢复，但供应链瓶颈对部分行业造成影响。鲍威尔认为，在2021年上半年，美国经济的重新开放和强劲的经济增长，一方面受新冠疫苗接种的帮助，另一方面也离不开宽松的货币和财政政策的支持。其中最明显的是，家庭支出正以特别快的速度增长，住房需求非常强劲，商业投资也在稳步增长。但与此同时，供应限制已经限制一些行业的活动，其中最明显的是汽车行业。今年迄今为止，全球半导体短缺已大幅削减了汽车行业的生产。\n2）劳动力市场状况持续改善，但仍有很长的路要走。鲍威尔认为，美国劳动力需求似乎非常强劲，目前职位空缺处于历史新高，招聘势头强劲，许多人离职而寻求更好的工作。4-6月美国雇主新增170万劳工。但是，6月美国失业率仍然高达5.9%，且这一数字还低估了就业恢复的不足，因劳动参与率仍然低迷。但随着疫情改善及其对就业的影响减少，未来几个月美国就业增长应该会强劲。此外，他还强调了低收入群体和有色人种的就业受影响更大，有待恢复。\n3）通胀率已经明显上升，且未来几月可能仍然居高不下，之后才会有所缓和。鲍威尔认为，第一是基数效应暂时推高通胀，第二是在需求旺盛的背景下，供给瓶颈导致某些商品和服务价格迅速上涨。但未来随着供应链瓶颈缓解，类似情况应会一定程度上得到逆转。近几个月，受疫情严重影响的服务价格也大幅上涨，因随着经济重新开放，服务业需求正在大幅上升。他强调美联储已经调整了货币政策框架，寻求将长期通胀预期稳定在2%，而衡量长期通胀预期的指标已从低点回升，目前处于与美联储长期通胀目标大致一致的区间。\n4）美联储尚不担心资产价格与金融体系脆弱性。鲍威尔表示，可持续地实现就业最大化和价格稳定取决于一个稳定的金融体系，因此美联储将继续监测金融体系的脆弱性。不过，尽管随着基本面改善和投资者风险偏好增强，各类资产估值普遍上升，但美国家庭资产负债表相当强劲，企业杠杆水平一直从高水平下降，处于金融体系核心的机构仍保持弹性。\n5）鲍威尔仍然否认经济已经取得“实质性进一步进展”，维持偏鸽论调。鲍威尔表示，“零利率”+资产购买的组合，加上对利率和资产负债表的“有力指导”，将确保货币政策继续为美国经济提供强有力的支持，直到复苏完成。其重申了6月FOMC会议的主要观点：对于利率调整而言，需要等到经济真正实现了最大就业和长期通胀目标；而对于资产购买，将至少维持现在的速度，直到取得“实质性进一步进展”（substantial further progress）。鲍威尔进一步透露，在6月议息会议上，委员会讨论了去年12月以来美国经济取得的进展，虽然距离达到“实质性进一步进展”的标准还有一段距离，但预计进展将继续下去。而美联储将在今后的会议中继续讨论这些问题。美联储将在宣布任何更改资产购买决定之前给出提前通知（provide advance notice）。\n二、海外经济跟踪\n1\n美国经济：6月通胀指标再创新高，非耐用品和服务消费逐渐起势\n美国6月CPI同比继续创新高，环比大涨0.9%，明显高于过去5年平均增速（0.2%左右）。分项看，大部分环比在加速，最“夸张”的是交通运输项环比大涨3.6%（前值2.1%），这仍是由于二手车价格的上涨。目前，比较难以判断二手车价格增速的拐点，下半年其对美国CPI仍可能带来超预期的拉动作用。\n\n美国6月PPI同比与环比增速也在创新高，所有分项环比均上涨，其中“贸易”分项环比大涨2.1%。近一个月，国际油价走高，不仅直接加大了能源品的成本压力，亦使国际运价上升以及美国进口商品价格大幅上涨。\n\n美国6月零售销售环比小幅上涨0.55%，好于预期和前值。零售销售的结构变化值得关注，“小件”销售好于“大件”，百货商店、服装配饰、食品饮料等销售连续上涨，而汽车、家具家装、建材物料等销售连续下滑。我们继续强调，下半年美国消费力量将由耐用品向非耐用品及服务转移，而服务消费是美国居民消费的大头，因此消费增长空间仍足。\n\n美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值明显滑落。物价快速攀升以及对于美国经济边际放缓的预期，可能均一定程度上抑制了消费信心。不过，就业指标仍传递了乐观信号，截至7月3日当周，美国持续申请失业金人数显著下降12.6万人，至324.1万人，最新的初请失业金人数也继续下降。随着美国额外失业补贴的陆续到期，美国就业快速恢复仍是有希望的。\n\n2\n海外疫情与疫苗跟踪：全球新一波疫情来袭\n自6月下旬尤其7月以来，全球或正处于新一波疫情来临的起点。此前是印度疫情显著抬头并对全球经济造成了一定程度的威胁。但目前印度疫情已经逐渐缓和，而新一波疫情所波及的范围更大，目前很多地区受Delta病毒扰动，新增确诊重新上升。欧洲方面，英国疫情率先抬头，并开始逼近今年1月的高点，但英国将于7月19日全面解封（佩戴口罩、1米社交距离、居家办公、公共场所人员密度等限制将解除），这是一个值得关注的全球防疫政策的新动向。近一周法国新增确诊也出现了抬头迹象，德国、意大利等其他欧盟国家疫情尚稳定。日本疫情刚刚缓和不久，近一周又明显上升，奥运会举办在即，疫情风险受到全球关注。东南亚国家疫情“此消彼长”，近期是越南、泰国等国家显著恶化，相关股市亦受到明显冲击。以色列疫情也意外反扑，疫苗接种对于新病毒的效用可能“打折”。不过，进一步看英国疫情数据，疫苗接种在很大程度上降低了死亡率，未来新冠疫情会否像“流感”一样虽持续生存但影响可控，不是没有可能。但是，对全球疫情的担忧，一定程度上正在使近期资本市场风险偏好降温，再通胀交易受到质疑，值得继续关注。\n\n\n三、全球资产表现\n1\n全球股市——新兴市场反弹、发达市场回调\n新兴市场尤其亚洲新兴市场股市，因疫情反扑和“紧缩恐慌”的戒备之心，自6月下旬开始一直跑输发达市场。而近一周终于等到反弹，韩国、印度、中国台湾、墨西哥、中国（创业板和沪深300）、印尼、巴西等主要市场股指皆有上涨。与此同时，大部分发达市场股市回调，但美股道指（-0.5%）跌幅小于纳指（-1.9%），美股周期板块表现出更强韧性。\n越南股市近两周遭遇重创，7月14日越南胡志明指数较7月2日下跌了近10%。今年以来越南股市表现亮眼，7月以前基本维持单边上涨趋势，越南强劲的出口表现是市场信心的基石。据Vietnamplus报道，今年1-6月越南货物出口额同比增长28.4%。但需注意下半年外需边际放缓后越南市场可能出现的信心变化。7月5日、11日和16日越南单日新增确诊数分别破1000、2000和4000例，而今年5月以前该数字均未超过100。疫情陡然升温应是这次股市调整的导火索。\n2\n全球债市——10年美债实际利率跌破-1%\n近一周，长端美债收益率继续下降，7年期及以上美债收益率整周跌4-6bp。10年美债收益率整周跌6bp，至1.31%，其中10年TIPS（实际）利率跌11bp，至-1.02%，隐含通胀预期升5bp，至2.33%。7月15日，10年TIPS利率跌破-1%，创2月12日以来新低。近期10年美债收益率降至此前难以想象的低位，主因是市场对于美国经济前景信心不足：一方面，美国财政计划规模打折，拉低了市场对美国的中长期通胀预期。且通胀指标虽然仍然短期“爆表”，但由于通胀预期已经处于历史高位，市场很难继续大幅押注。而疫苗接种速度放缓、变异病毒扰动等因素。加剧了市场对于下半年“群体免疫”能否实现，经济活动能否按时重启的担忧，致使美债实际利率明显下滑。前期市场已经很大程度上将乐观预期纳入资产定价，造就了不断创新高的美股和美国公司债，近期市场无疑正在经历预期上的巨大变化。全球债市方面，大部分地区10y国债/公债继续随美债走牛，但泰国、马来西亚等地区因疫情急剧恶化、国债收益率上升。\n\n\n3\n商品市场——油价回落，黑色系连涨，农产品反弹\n近一周，国际油价明显回调，WTI原油和布伦特原油期货价整周分别跌3.7%和2.6%，分别收于71.81和73.59美元/桶。然而，截至7月9日当周，EIA美国原油库存继续下降790万桶，下降速度与前两周基本持平。近一周油价波动的主因是供给和需求预期变化：供给方面，阿联酋与OPEC恢复谈判意味着增产计划有望顺利进行（沙特同意将阿联酋的减产基准调高，以换取阿联酋同意将整体减产协议从2022年4月延长至当年年底）；需求方面，近期新冠疫情扰动以及市场对于美国经济“见顶”的担忧，都可能一定程度上使市场对原油需求的判断更加谨慎。我们在报告《油价会不会是下一个“灰犀牛”？》中指出，供给约束是下半年油价走势之关键。目前，美国页岩油增产受限是大概率，未来需密切关注OPEC+能否坚守前期增产承诺。假如未出现大幅增产，则下半年国际油价可能在70-80美元/桶区间高位震荡。\n国内黑色系商品（铁矿石、螺纹钢、动力煤等）价格连续2-3周上涨。我们在3月报告《大宗商品的“超级周期”来了吗？》提示了“绿色泡沫”的风险，因铜价涨价背后，除了真实供需矛盾外，还有来自资本市场的炒作与助推。LME铜价自6月中旬显著回调后，近期保持在9100-9500美元/吨内窄幅震荡。目前，LME铜库存升至近一年以来的高位，“拜登基建”缩水亦对需求预期形成打压，铜供需紧张的局面出现一些缓解迹象。未来一段时间，市场通胀预期与风险偏好亦可能于高位回落，铜价上行或更加困难，可能经历更多波动。\n4\n外汇市场——美元指数创2季度以来新高\n7月13日美元指数升至92.79，超过7月7日92.72的前期高点，创下今年4月以来的新高。如何理解近期美债收益率下降与美元升值的关系？我们认为，需要注意美国经济纵向和横向比较的区别。近期，美债市场正在交易美国经济“见顶”，这是美债利率明显回落的主要驱动力量。然而，近期包括英国在内的多地疫情反扑，除欧元区外的非美地区经济前景仍然堪忧。因此，美国经济在今年的相对表现仍然是“一枝独秀”的，市场对于美元阶段走强的预期也在不断强化。我们继续维持下半年美元有望阶段性走强的判断（参考我们报告《美元下一步》）。此外，最近还有一些新的变化支撑美元走强：欧洲央行调整货币政策决策后，欧洲央行可能进一步加快扩表，并延缓Taper，美欧央行货币政策节奏的差异，可能令美元兑欧元的升值空间进一步释放。值得注意的是，美元自新冠疫情爆发以来主要是对发达市场贬值，而今年以来对新兴市场的价值基本持平于2019年下半年水平，这或意味着新兴市场货币贬值的空间是相对有限的。近一周，比特币价格触碰今年2月以来新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170732516,"gmtCreate":1626450333435,"gmtModify":1703760510873,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170732516","repostId":"1135978719","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147983766,"gmtCreate":1626327278155,"gmtModify":1703757967717,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147983766","repostId":"1162961337","rep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13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"TSMC's second-quarter net profit was $4.798 billion, slightly below expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162961337","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"台积电：2021年Q2 营收（亿美元）：132.89，预期：131.67，前值：103.85\n第二季度净利润（亿美元）：47.98亿，预期：48.31，前值：40.38。\n第二季度每ADS盈利0.39","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Revenue in Q2 2021 (US$100 million):<b>132.89，</b>Expected: 131.67, Previous: 103.85</p><p>Second quarter net profit (US$100 million):<b>4.798 billion,</b>Expected: 48.31, previous value: 40.38.</p><p>Earnings per ADS in the second quarter were $0.39, compared to $0.78 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the second quarter, 7nm process revenue accounted for 31%, and 5nm process revenue accounted for 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b7b6bd434948211dea69ece047b9ae\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC's second-quarter net profit was $4.798 billion, slightly below expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC's second-quarter net profit was $4.798 billion, slightly below expectations\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 13:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Revenue in Q2 2021 (US$100 million):<b>132.89，</b>Expected: 131.67, Previous: 103.85</p><p>Second quarter net profit (US$100 million):<b>4.798 billion,</b>Expected: 48.31, previous value: 40.38.</p><p>Earnings per ADS in the second quarter were $0.39, compared to $0.78 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the second quarter, 7nm process revenue accounted for 31%, and 5nm process revenue accounted for 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b7b6bd434948211dea69ece047b9ae\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162961337","content_text":"台积电：2021年Q2 营收（亿美元）：132.89，预期：131.67，前值：103.85\n第二季度净利润（亿美元）：47.98亿，预期：48.31，前值：40.38。\n第二季度每ADS盈利0.39美元，去年同期0.78美元。\n第二季度7nm制程营收占比31%，5nm制程营收占比18%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145381717,"gmtCreate":1626189909739,"gmtModify":1703755270342,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145381717","repostId":"1177979098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177979098","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626144738,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177979098?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 10:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla: Received the harshest criticism, but sold the most cars.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177979098","media":"霞光社 ","summary":"特斯拉总有一种魔力，让恨它的人毫无办法，爱它的人趋之若鹜。","content":"<p>By Terukawa</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>There is always a kind of magic that leaves those who hate it helpless, while those who love it flock to it.</p><p>The aftermath of the rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year is still lingering, and coupled with the large-scale recall in late June caused by problems with the active cruise control system, the quality questions surrounding Tesla Electric vehicles seem to be getting deeper and deeper. Many assessment agencies predict that Tesla's short-term sales and delivery figures will be poor.</p><p>However, on July 2, Tesla released its global production and sales data for the second quarter of this year, showing that its production reached 206,421 units and deliveries reached 201,250 units. Compared to the same period last year, they increased by 150.9% and 121.42% respectively, breaking historical records once again.</p><p>With global production and sales exceeding 200,000 units, Tesla not only achieved its previous target, but also rose to $700 after the stock market opened that day.</p><p>On the one hand, the brand image has been greatly diminished, but on the other hand, sales have reached a new high. What exactly is Tesla's appeal?</p><p><b>Tesla controls the future dividends</b></p><p>Musk said, \"Traditional automakers will no longer exist in the future.\"</p><p>\"If you've never driven a Tesla, it's really hard to get a clear idea of how this all-new car...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>How cool is that car? After his first test drive of Tesla, Xiaomi's Lei Jun made no secret of his admiration for it.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The founder, He Xiaopeng, was once a loyal Tesla fan, having bought four Teslas in total.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>On the blog, a blogger named \"Ji Yongfeng\" strongly suggested that all OEMs should drive their smart electric vehicles for a spin. Only by experiencing them deeply over long distances can they understand that intelligent driving is a dimensional blow to traditional gasoline vehicles: \"The ones revolutionizing Detroit are the powerful players in Silicon Valley.\" Although the number of competing new energy vehicle manufacturers in China is increasing, and traditional automakers such as GM, Ford, and Volkswagen are also penetrating the electric vehicle market, most of these competitors are simply replacing their original gasoline-burning vehicles with electricity-consuming ones, rather than truly dedicating themselves to building smart terminals like Tesla.</p><p>In terms of practicality, Tesla also has a significant advantage compared to gasoline vehicles and competing electric vehicles in the same price range. Taking Tesla's flagship models Model 3 and Model Y as examples, the Model 3 has higher maximum power and torque, and its power performance is not weak, accelerating from 0 to 100 km/h on par with gasoline cars. The Model 3's active safety system is standard, and the Autopilot automatic driving assistance package is also available as an option, which has gained many loyal users. The Model Y has seen price reductions, from 480,000 yuan to 330,000 yuan, with almost no competing electric vehicles in the same price range. Its advanced concepts and high cost-performance ratio, coupled with advantages such as comfort, safety, brand, and price, make Tesla the preferred electric vehicle choice for a large number of people.</p><p>Tesla's intelligent driving is not a business story, but a potential future dividend.</p><p>Since 2020, despite the impact of the global pandemic and the stagnation of industrial production, Tesla's global sales still reached 458,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800 vehicles, bringing its global cumulative vehicle production in the first half of the year to 386,759 vehicles. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, Tesla's global delivery figures have been rising steadily. In the third and fourth quarters of last year, Tesla sold 121 million vehicles and 1.65 million vehicles, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 56.6% and 78.2%. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla sold 184,800 vehicles, breaking historical records for several consecutive years. Given this trend, it was perfectly reasonable for Tesla to break a record with 200,000 units sold in the second quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937cf845fda952808dcc9a6f73bdeecc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The United States and China are currently Tesla's two largest sales markets. Although the US market remains the main driver, China's potential market should not be underestimated. According to Tesla's 2020 sales data, Tesla sold 206,000 vehicles in the United States last year, a year-on-year increase of only 14.9%. Sales in the Chinese market reached 137,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 203%. It can be said that nearly one-third of Tesla's sales last year were contributed by the Chinese market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0200183ab4b56f9ec2380997cb521a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the ramp-up of production capacity at the Shanghai Gigafactory, the price range of the Model 3 and Model Y has dropped to around 300,000 yuan, and Tesla's electric vehicle market in China has gradually evolved from policy-driven to consumption-driven. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market, accounting for 37% of its total global sales. In the second quarter, sales in China reached 25,845 vehicles in April and 33,463 vehicles in May, for a total of 59,000 vehicles sold in April and May alone.</p><p>According to compulsory traffic accident liability insurance data, of the 139,000 Tesla vehicles registered nationwide in 2020, 64.7% came from four provinces and municipalities: Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing. The license plate restriction policies and new energy vehicle support strategies in megacities across China are among the factors contributing to Tesla's continuous opening up of the domestic market. According to data from the Shanghai Securities News, Tesla's industry penetration rate in China has increased from 1.3% in 2015 to 9.4% in May this year. The electric vehicle industry has entered a period of accelerated growth, which has directly led to a significant increase in production and sales.</p><p><b>Is the halving of sales in April due to a reputation crisis?</b></p><p>In February of this year, Musk said that \"during the ramp-up mass production phase, it is difficult for Tesla to guarantee that every detail will be flawless.\" Tesla itself has realized that, given the rapid growth in production and sales, quality control will become a hidden pitfall.</p><p>On April 19, at the opening ceremony of the Shanghai Auto Show, a female car owner protesting shouted, \"Tesla's brakes are failing.\" At the subsequent public relations level, Tesla was clearly not fully prepared. The statement by its Vice President of External Affairs, Tao Lin, that \"Tesla has no way to compromise\" caused public opinion to almost entirely lean towards its criticism. In addition, Tesla accidents occurred frequently in the first quarter. In April, Tesla owners in Shenzhen lost control of their vehicles due to sudden acceleration and collision with another vehicle.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>On May 30, another Tesla owner was locked inside the car because he could not open the door. A series of negative news stories have led to growing consumer skepticism towards Tesla.</p><p>According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla's sales in April were 25,845 units, a 27% decrease compared to the previous month. According to a research report by Credit Suisse, Tesla's market share in China has dropped from 19% to 8%. At the same time, domestically produced electric vehicles such as Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Sales in XPeng remained stable.</p><p>As a result, Tesla's sales in China halved in April, which is believed to be related to its public relations mistakes. Given the extremely negative public opinion situation, Tesla's future sales situation will not be optimistic.</p><p>However, Tesla's sales in North America and Europe also showed a decline in April. According to data from EV Sales, only 1,244 Tesla Model 3 units were sold in the European market in April this year, a 95% decrease compared to the previous month. Sales in the North American market fell 16.23% month-on-month. The stock price fell to $617 per share, reducing its market capitalization by 270 billion. It is clear that Tesla's declining sales in overseas markets are not largely related to the negative public opinion environment in China.</p><p>Tesla attributed the decline in global sales in April to a two-week production shutdown due to a \"chip shortage,\" which was an occasional short-term disruption. The official explanation is that \"sales fluctuated because the Model Y production line at the Shanghai Gigafactory was shut down for two weeks in April to upgrade its equipment.\"</p><p>From another perspective, the public opinion crisis triggered by the Shanghai Auto Show occurred at the end of April, so it is extremely unlikely to affect Tesla's domestic and international sales in April. Tesla's vehicle delivery cycle is around January. Even if there is a sharp drop in orders or a large number of orders are canceled, the data will not be available until May or June, and such an immediate decline in sales is unlikely.</p><p><b>What will Tesla rely on to stay alive?</b></p><p>Although Tesla's sales decline in April was unrelated to public opinion, it does not mean that Tesla is \"safe\".</p><p>In terms of sales volume, Tesla sold 25,845 and 33,463 vehicles in the Chinese market in April and May respectively. However, in terms of order volume, Tesla's order volume in May was only 9,800 vehicles, a decrease of more than 45% compared to 18,000 vehicles in April. Because Tesla's delivery cycle is being pushed back by a month, the consequences of the decline in orders have not yet been reflected in the production and sales data for the first two quarters.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">Sina</a>According to technology reports, Tesla's Vice President of External Affairs, Tao Lin, recently held an internal media expert discussion meeting at her office in the China World Trade Center in Beijing on June 5. The main purpose was to study Tesla's reputation repair and brand communication in the current landscape.</p><p>In fact, Tesla also made corresponding public relations efforts after the rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show at the end of April. At the height of public discussion (the afternoon of April 22), Tesla released vehicle data from one minute before the Anyang braking accident to the China Market Supervision Daily, along with a written explanation. Data shows that when the driver last applied the brakes, the vehicle was traveling at 118.5 km/h, clearly exceeding the speed limit. Tesla then explained the situation to the Xi'an car owners who were also protesting at the Shanghai Auto Show, stating that their airbags did not deploy because they were making a low-speed left turn and had not yet reached the airbag deployment threshold.</p><p>In response to allegations that Tesla violated personal privacy, Tesla has established a data center in China, where all Tesla vehicle data from the mainland market will be stored domestically, with the aim of eliminating privacy concerns.</p><p>In late June, at the request of the State Administration for Market Regulation, Tesla urgently recalled nearly 280,000 electric vehicles, including 246,921 Model 3s and 38,599 Model Ys. Tesla used remote auto upgrade (OTA) technology to urgently upgrade the active cruise control software for these recalled vehicles free of charge, which to some extent once again increased users' trust in the safety of Tesla vehicles.</p><p>Another long-standing problem plaguing Tesla is the chip shortage. Musk said, \"Our biggest challenge right now is the supply chain, especially microcontroller chips.\" Because of concerns about a chip shortage, almost every company is overordering and stockpiling chips. The production and sales of the Shanghai Gigafactory stalled in April this year, which was also due to the insufficient chip supply. Although the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) stated that the supply and demand imbalance in chips will improve after July this year, and production capacity will be fully released in September, a chip supply shortage is still inevitable in the short term.</p><p>Tesla has already implemented many \"survival\" strategies on both the brand image rebuilding and technology fronts. However, the decline in domestic market orders after May and June, and the short-term chip supply pressure that has not yet been alleviated, will still put pressure on Tesla's production and sales in the third quarter. Although Tesla's sales exceeded 200,000 vehicles in the second quarter, it still faces both strength and crisis.</p>","source":"lsy1601451636609","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Received the harshest criticism, but sold the most cars.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Received the harshest criticism, but sold the most cars.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">霞光社 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 10:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Terukawa</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>There is always a kind of magic that leaves those who hate it helpless, while those who love it flock to it.</p><p>The aftermath of the rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year is still lingering, and coupled with the large-scale recall in late June caused by problems with the active cruise control system, the quality questions surrounding Tesla Electric vehicles seem to be getting deeper and deeper. Many assessment agencies predict that Tesla's short-term sales and delivery figures will be poor.</p><p>However, on July 2, Tesla released its global production and sales data for the second quarter of this year, showing that its production reached 206,421 units and deliveries reached 201,250 units. Compared to the same period last year, they increased by 150.9% and 121.42% respectively, breaking historical records once again.</p><p>With global production and sales exceeding 200,000 units, Tesla not only achieved its previous target, but also rose to $700 after the stock market opened that day.</p><p>On the one hand, the brand image has been greatly diminished, but on the other hand, sales have reached a new high. What exactly is Tesla's appeal?</p><p><b>Tesla controls the future dividends</b></p><p>Musk said, \"Traditional automakers will no longer exist in the future.\"</p><p>\"If you've never driven a Tesla, it's really hard to get a clear idea of how this all-new car...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>How cool is that car? After his first test drive of Tesla, Xiaomi's Lei Jun made no secret of his admiration for it.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The founder, He Xiaopeng, was once a loyal Tesla fan, having bought four Teslas in total.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>On the blog, a blogger named \"Ji Yongfeng\" strongly suggested that all OEMs should drive their smart electric vehicles for a spin. Only by experiencing them deeply over long distances can they understand that intelligent driving is a dimensional blow to traditional gasoline vehicles: \"The ones revolutionizing Detroit are the powerful players in Silicon Valley.\" Although the number of competing new energy vehicle manufacturers in China is increasing, and traditional automakers such as GM, Ford, and Volkswagen are also penetrating the electric vehicle market, most of these competitors are simply replacing their original gasoline-burning vehicles with electricity-consuming ones, rather than truly dedicating themselves to building smart terminals like Tesla.</p><p>In terms of practicality, Tesla also has a significant advantage compared to gasoline vehicles and competing electric vehicles in the same price range. Taking Tesla's flagship models Model 3 and Model Y as examples, the Model 3 has higher maximum power and torque, and its power performance is not weak, accelerating from 0 to 100 km/h on par with gasoline cars. The Model 3's active safety system is standard, and the Autopilot automatic driving assistance package is also available as an option, which has gained many loyal users. The Model Y has seen price reductions, from 480,000 yuan to 330,000 yuan, with almost no competing electric vehicles in the same price range. Its advanced concepts and high cost-performance ratio, coupled with advantages such as comfort, safety, brand, and price, make Tesla the preferred electric vehicle choice for a large number of people.</p><p>Tesla's intelligent driving is not a business story, but a potential future dividend.</p><p>Since 2020, despite the impact of the global pandemic and the stagnation of industrial production, Tesla's global sales still reached 458,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles and delivered 184,800 vehicles, bringing its global cumulative vehicle production in the first half of the year to 386,759 vehicles. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, Tesla's global delivery figures have been rising steadily. In the third and fourth quarters of last year, Tesla sold 121 million vehicles and 1.65 million vehicles, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 56.6% and 78.2%. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla sold 184,800 vehicles, breaking historical records for several consecutive years. Given this trend, it was perfectly reasonable for Tesla to break a record with 200,000 units sold in the second quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937cf845fda952808dcc9a6f73bdeecc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The United States and China are currently Tesla's two largest sales markets. Although the US market remains the main driver, China's potential market should not be underestimated. According to Tesla's 2020 sales data, Tesla sold 206,000 vehicles in the United States last year, a year-on-year increase of only 14.9%. Sales in the Chinese market reached 137,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 203%. It can be said that nearly one-third of Tesla's sales last year were contributed by the Chinese market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0200183ab4b56f9ec2380997cb521a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the ramp-up of production capacity at the Shanghai Gigafactory, the price range of the Model 3 and Model Y has dropped to around 300,000 yuan, and Tesla's electric vehicle market in China has gradually evolved from policy-driven to consumption-driven. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market, accounting for 37% of its total global sales. In the second quarter, sales in China reached 25,845 vehicles in April and 33,463 vehicles in May, for a total of 59,000 vehicles sold in April and May alone.</p><p>According to compulsory traffic accident liability insurance data, of the 139,000 Tesla vehicles registered nationwide in 2020, 64.7% came from four provinces and municipalities: Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing. The license plate restriction policies and new energy vehicle support strategies in megacities across China are among the factors contributing to Tesla's continuous opening up of the domestic market. According to data from the Shanghai Securities News, Tesla's industry penetration rate in China has increased from 1.3% in 2015 to 9.4% in May this year. The electric vehicle industry has entered a period of accelerated growth, which has directly led to a significant increase in production and sales.</p><p><b>Is the halving of sales in April due to a reputation crisis?</b></p><p>In February of this year, Musk said that \"during the ramp-up mass production phase, it is difficult for Tesla to guarantee that every detail will be flawless.\" Tesla itself has realized that, given the rapid growth in production and sales, quality control will become a hidden pitfall.</p><p>On April 19, at the opening ceremony of the Shanghai Auto Show, a female car owner protesting shouted, \"Tesla's brakes are failing.\" At the subsequent public relations level, Tesla was clearly not fully prepared. The statement by its Vice President of External Affairs, Tao Lin, that \"Tesla has no way to compromise\" caused public opinion to almost entirely lean towards its criticism. In addition, Tesla accidents occurred frequently in the first quarter. In April, Tesla owners in Shenzhen lost control of their vehicles due to sudden acceleration and collision with another vehicle.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>On May 30, another Tesla owner was locked inside the car because he could not open the door. A series of negative news stories have led to growing consumer skepticism towards Tesla.</p><p>According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla's sales in April were 25,845 units, a 27% decrease compared to the previous month. According to a research report by Credit Suisse, Tesla's market share in China has dropped from 19% to 8%. At the same time, domestically produced electric vehicles such as Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Sales in XPeng remained stable.</p><p>As a result, Tesla's sales in China halved in April, which is believed to be related to its public relations mistakes. Given the extremely negative public opinion situation, Tesla's future sales situation will not be optimistic.</p><p>However, Tesla's sales in North America and Europe also showed a decline in April. According to data from EV Sales, only 1,244 Tesla Model 3 units were sold in the European market in April this year, a 95% decrease compared to the previous month. Sales in the North American market fell 16.23% month-on-month. The stock price fell to $617 per share, reducing its market capitalization by 270 billion. It is clear that Tesla's declining sales in overseas markets are not largely related to the negative public opinion environment in China.</p><p>Tesla attributed the decline in global sales in April to a two-week production shutdown due to a \"chip shortage,\" which was an occasional short-term disruption. The official explanation is that \"sales fluctuated because the Model Y production line at the Shanghai Gigafactory was shut down for two weeks in April to upgrade its equipment.\"</p><p>From another perspective, the public opinion crisis triggered by the Shanghai Auto Show occurred at the end of April, so it is extremely unlikely to affect Tesla's domestic and international sales in April. Tesla's vehicle delivery cycle is around January. Even if there is a sharp drop in orders or a large number of orders are canceled, the data will not be available until May or June, and such an immediate decline in sales is unlikely.</p><p><b>What will Tesla rely on to stay alive?</b></p><p>Although Tesla's sales decline in April was unrelated to public opinion, it does not mean that Tesla is \"safe\".</p><p>In terms of sales volume, Tesla sold 25,845 and 33,463 vehicles in the Chinese market in April and May respectively. However, in terms of order volume, Tesla's order volume in May was only 9,800 vehicles, a decrease of more than 45% compared to 18,000 vehicles in April. Because Tesla's delivery cycle is being pushed back by a month, the consequences of the decline in orders have not yet been reflected in the production and sales data for the first two quarters.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">Sina</a>According to technology reports, Tesla's Vice President of External Affairs, Tao Lin, recently held an internal media expert discussion meeting at her office in the China World Trade Center in Beijing on June 5. The main purpose was to study Tesla's reputation repair and brand communication in the current landscape.</p><p>In fact, Tesla also made corresponding public relations efforts after the rights protection incident at the Shanghai Auto Show at the end of April. At the height of public discussion (the afternoon of April 22), Tesla released vehicle data from one minute before the Anyang braking accident to the China Market Supervision Daily, along with a written explanation. Data shows that when the driver last applied the brakes, the vehicle was traveling at 118.5 km/h, clearly exceeding the speed limit. Tesla then explained the situation to the Xi'an car owners who were also protesting at the Shanghai Auto Show, stating that their airbags did not deploy because they were making a low-speed left turn and had not yet reached the airbag deployment threshold.</p><p>In response to allegations that Tesla violated personal privacy, Tesla has established a data center in China, where all Tesla vehicle data from the mainland market will be stored domestically, with the aim of eliminating privacy concerns.</p><p>In late June, at the request of the State Administration for Market Regulation, Tesla urgently recalled nearly 280,000 electric vehicles, including 246,921 Model 3s and 38,599 Model Ys. Tesla used remote auto upgrade (OTA) technology to urgently upgrade the active cruise control software for these recalled vehicles free of charge, which to some extent once again increased users' trust in the safety of Tesla vehicles.</p><p>Another long-standing problem plaguing Tesla is the chip shortage. Musk said, \"Our biggest challenge right now is the supply chain, especially microcontroller chips.\" Because of concerns about a chip shortage, almost every company is overordering and stockpiling chips. The production and sales of the Shanghai Gigafactory stalled in April this year, which was also due to the insufficient chip supply. Although the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) stated that the supply and demand imbalance in chips will improve after July this year, and production capacity will be fully released in September, a chip supply shortage is still inevitable in the short term.</p><p>Tesla has already implemented many \"survival\" strategies on both the brand image rebuilding and technology fronts. However, the decline in domestic market orders after May and June, and the short-term chip supply pressure that has not yet been alleviated, will still put pressure on Tesla's production and sales in the third quarter. Although Tesla's sales exceeded 200,000 vehicles in the second quarter, it still faces both strength and crisis.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_B9EnGXz6_aLOLwI4vOkfA\">霞光社 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2380e49712ca8305dbdb806526f888","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_B9EnGXz6_aLOLwI4vOkfA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177979098","content_text":"文/照川\n特斯拉总有一种魔力，让恨它的人毫无办法，爱它的人趋之若鹜。\n今年4月上海车展的维权事件余波犹在，再加上6月下旬因主动巡航控制系统问题引发的大规模召回事件，特斯拉电车的质量疑团似乎越陷越深。许多评估机构预计，特斯拉短期销量、交付量数据将很难看。\n但是7月2日，特斯拉发布了今年第二季度的全球产销数据显示，今年二季度其产量达206421台，交付量201250台。比起去年同期的数据，分别增长了150.9%和121.42%，再次突破历史记录。\n全球超20万台的产销量，让特斯拉不仅完成了此前的预定目标，当日股市开盘后还一度升至700美元。\n一面品牌形象大打折扣，另一面却销量再破新高。特斯拉的魅力，究竟在哪儿？\n特斯拉，掌握着未来红利\n马斯克说，“未来传统车企将不复存在”。\n“如果你没开过Tesla汽车，确实很难有一个直观的想象，这辆全智能的车有多酷。”小米雷军在第一次试驾特斯拉后，毫不掩饰对它的崇拜。小鹏汽车的创始人何小鹏也曾经是特斯拉的忠实粉丝，前后买过4辆特斯拉。\n在微博上，一位叫“姬永锋”的博主强烈建议各家OEM厂商都开上智能电车跑一圈，只有长距离深度感受，才能明白智能驾驶对传统燃油车来说，是一种降维打击：“革底特律命的是硅谷这帮猛人。”虽然国内新能源造车竞品日渐增长，通用、福特和大众等传统汽车制造商也在渗透电车市场，但竞品大多只是将原本的烧油换成耗电，而非真正像特斯拉一样，致力于打造智能终端。\n从实用性上，特斯拉和同价位的燃油车、竞品电动车相比，也存在极大优势。以特斯拉主力车型Model 3和Model Y为例，Model 3有更高的最大功率和扭矩，动力性能不弱，百公里加速不输燃油车。Model 3的主动安全系统属于标配，还能选装 Autopilot 自动辅助驾驶功能包，收获了很多忠实用户。Model Y则一路降价，从48万降到33万，同样的价位几乎不存在竞品电动车。超前理念和较高性价比，加上舒适、安全、品牌、价位等优势，让特斯拉还是极大一部分人的电车首选。\n特斯拉的智能驾驶，并非商业故事，而是潜在的未来红利。\n2020年以来，虽然面临着全球疫情影响，工业生产停滞，但特斯拉全球销量依然达到了45.8万辆，同比增长 50.4%。今年第一季度特斯拉生产180338辆，交付量达到184800辆，上半年全球汽车累计产量达到了 386759 辆。从去年第二季度，到今年第二季度，特斯拉的全球交付量数据一路走高。去年第三季度、第四季度的121000辆、165000万辆，同比增长56.6%和 78.2%，今年一季度特斯拉销量184800辆，连续突破历史记录。在这样的趋势下，特斯拉二季度20万销量破纪录，本就在情理之中。\n\n美国本土和中国，是特斯拉目前最大的两个销售市场。虽然美国市场仍是主力，但中国的潜在市场不可小觑。据特斯拉2020年销售数据显示，去年特斯拉美国销量20.6万辆，同比增长只有14.9%。中国市场销量为13.7万辆，同比增长却达到了203%，可以说特斯拉去年有近三分之一的销量是中国市场贡献的。\n\n随着上海超级工厂的产能爬坡，Model 3和Model Y价格区间下沉至30万元左右，特斯拉电动车在中国市场从政策导向，逐渐演变为消费驱动。2021年1季度，特斯拉在中国市场的交付量就达到了6.9万辆，占其全球总销量的37%。二季度4月中国销量达到25845辆，5月销量达到33463辆，光是4、5月就共有5.9万的辆销售量。\n交强险数据显示，在特斯拉2020年全国上牌的13.9 万辆中，有64.7%是来自于上海、广东、浙江、北京四个省市。国内特大城市的限牌政策和新能源车扶持战略，是特斯拉国内市场不断打开的因素之一。上海证券报数据表明，特斯拉在中国的行业渗透率，已经从2015年的1.3%，提升到了今年5月的9.4%，电动车行业进入加速增长期，直接带来的就是产销量大增。\n4月销量腰斩，源于口碑危机？\n今年2月，马斯克曾经说过“在爬坡量产阶段，特斯拉很难保证所有细节都不出问题”。特斯拉自己也意识到了，在产销量高速增长的背景下，质量控制将成为其隐藏雷点。\n4月19日，上海车展开幕式上，维权女车主大喊“特斯拉刹车失灵”。在接下来的公关层面，特斯拉显然没有做好充分的准备，其对外事务副总裁陶琳的一句“特斯拉没有办法妥协”，让舆论几乎全部倒向了对其批评的一面。再加上一季度特斯拉事故频发，4月深圳的特斯拉车主因车辆突然加速，无法控制与一辆比亚迪相撞，5月30日，又有一位特斯拉车主因无法打开车门而被锁车内。一系列的负面新闻，消费者对特斯拉的质疑声浪越来越高。\n乘联会数据显示，特斯拉4月的销量是25845辆，环比下降了27%。瑞信的研报显示，在中国，特斯拉的市场占有率已经从19%下降到了8%。而同时期国产电动车理想、蔚来、小鹏的销量都保持稳定。\n于是，特斯拉4月中国销量“腰斩”，被认为与其公关失误有关，在极其负面的舆论形势下，特斯拉接下来的销售状况将不容乐观。\n不过，4月特斯拉在北美和欧洲市场的销量，也显示下滑。根据EV Sales的数据，今年4月特斯拉Model 3在欧洲市场仅售出1244台，环比下跌95%。北美市场销量环比下跌16.23%。股价跌到了617美元/股，市值缩水2700亿。很明显，特斯拉在国外市场的销量下滑，和国内负面的舆论环境关系不大。\n特斯拉方面把4月全球销量的下滑，归结为因面临“缺芯”困境，停产两周，属于偶发性短期扰动。对此官方解释是，“因为上海超级工厂Model Y生产线曾在4月份停产两周以升级产线设备，销量也因此产生波动。”\n从另一角度看，上海车展引发的舆论危机发生于4月底，所以特斯拉4月国内外的销量受其影响可能性极小。特斯拉车辆交付周期大概在一月左右，哪怕是订单量锐减或是大量订单被取消，数据要等到5-6月之后才能有所显示，不会出现如此立竿见影的销量下滑。\n特斯拉将靠什么续命\n虽然4月特斯拉销量下滑与舆论导向无关，但这并不意味着特斯拉就此“安全”了。\n从销售量来看，特斯拉4月和5月在中国市场销量分别为25845辆和33463辆，但从订单量来看，特斯拉5月订单量只有9800辆，比4月的18000辆缩减了45%以上。由于特斯拉交付周期要向后顺延一月，所以订单量下滑的后果，在前两季度的产销数据中暂时还未显现。\n据新浪科技报道称，特斯拉对外事务副总裁陶琳曾经于前不久的6月5日，在北京华贸中心的办公室召开过一个内部的媒体专家探讨会，主要目的就是研究当下格局下，特斯拉的声誉修复与品牌传播。\n事实上，在4月底的上海车展维权事件后，特斯拉方面也做出了相应公关。在舆论讨论最激烈的时点（4月22日下午），特斯拉向《中国市场监管报》公布了安阳刹车事故前1分钟的车辆数据，外加一份文字说明。数据显示驾驶员最后一次踩下刹车时，车辆时速为118.5km/h，明显超速。随后特斯拉又对同样在上海车展维权的西安车主，也做出了情况说明，声明其安全气囊未弹出，是由于当时是低速左转，尚未达到气囊弹出阈值。\n针对“特斯拉侵犯个人隐私”质疑，特斯拉已经建立了中国的数据中心，所有大陆市场的特斯拉车辆数据，都将存放在境内，目的在于消除隐私层面的问题。\n6月下旬，在国家市场监督管理总局的要求下，特斯拉紧急召回了近28万辆电动车，包括246921辆Model 3和38599辆Model Y，特斯拉通过汽车远程升级（OTA）技术，为这些召回车辆紧急免费提升主动巡航控制软件，一定程度上再次提高用户对特斯拉车辆安全性的信任程度。\n另一长期困扰特斯拉的，是芯片的短缺问题。马斯克说，“目前我们最大的挑战是供应链，尤其是微控制器芯片。”因为担心芯片供不应求，几乎每家公司都在超量订购囤积芯片，今年4月上海超级工厂的产销量停滞，也是因为芯片供应不畅导致。虽然乘联会表示，芯片的供需矛盾将会在今年7月之后有所改善，9月产能完全释放，但短期内芯片供应短缺仍不可避免。\n在品牌形象重建和技术层面两条战线上，特斯拉已经出了不少“续命”招数，但5、6月后国内市场订单量下滑、短期芯片供应压力又尚未得到缓解，还是会对特斯拉第三季度的产销造成压力。虽然特斯拉第二季度销量突破20万辆，但对于特斯拉来说，仍然是实力与危机并存。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2087,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148302311,"gmtCreate":1625925546633,"gmtModify":1703750952379,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148302311","repostId":"1124741749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124741749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625910991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124741749?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Thorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Giants","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124741749","media":"SMARTMATRIX","summary":"他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校。","content":"<p>A Man for All Markets is Edward Thorp's personal biography. Based on Thorp's experience, from beating casinos to entering Wall Street, he ventured into OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives, making him a true All Markets. In his preface, Taleb said that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and The godfather of quantitative investing, he pioneered The introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial trading, influencing countless Quant leaders in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including The renowned James Simons, whose Renaissance Technology company created a legend of returns in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography, The Man Who Solved The Market, details The ups and downs of his and his team's conquest of The financial markets. Although it was compiled by a Wall Street Journal writer based on interviews, it contains many fascinating stories that have never been disclosed before.</p><p><b>academic origin</b></p><p>A thriving culture leads to outstanding people. The so-called place of outstanding people and beautiful resources, for example, the Hunan School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. A similar phenomenon exists in academia. A closer look at the backgrounds of the two big shots reveals many commonalities. They were both born in the 1930s, were exceptionally talented from a young age, were in academia, but both were focused on money, and shared two alma maters: the University of California, Berkeley and MIT. Both universities' academic achievements reached their peak after the war, primarily due to the large-scale military research activities spurred by World War II (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory, and modern computers). Thorp and Simons both happened to catch this academic boom. In the 1950s, Thorp was engrossed in studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons remained engrossed in theoretical mathematical problems, which further enhanced his academic achievements (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>A popular story today is that Thorp used the Law of Large Numbers and Kelly's formula to defeat the casino, becoming the first person in history to be \"blacklisted\" by a Las Vegas casino. In contrast, the hedge fund he founded, Princeton Newport Partners (PNP), is much less well-known. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1% respectively, while the average annual growth rate of the S&P 500 index was 10.2% during the same period. Over the past 19 years, through two oil crises in the 1970s and the 1987 stock market crash, neither fund has ever suffered a single quarterly loss, let alone an annual loss. At the world's largest casino, its performance was unparalleled at the time, and its investment model was 20 years ahead of the customers who subsequently flocked to Wall Street.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to close due to its implications in the Milken case, the king of junk bonds. It was in that year that Simons established the Grand Medal Fund. Now over fifty, he was a late bloomer. He had been exploring successful investment models for 10 years, oscillating between subjective and quantitative approaches. Although Simons has always been regarded as a quantitative investment master, his role is actually completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to discover various scientists from academia to help the company develop quantitative models and to shape the company's corporate culture as a spiritual leader. As a world-class mathematician and outstanding salesperson, he can get along well with different people, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>The road to quantification</b></p><p>As a pioneer in quantitative trading, Thorp excelled at hedging and arbitraging various derivatives, and the bear market and volatility of the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and market sense, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factor models—early quant prototypes. The risks under this model are theoretically infinite, especially since the maximum loss from shorting overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. LTCM subsequently adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked risk control strategies like Thorp, and was defeated by black swan events. To improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs, once again becoming a pioneer in algorithmic Trading.</p><p>In contrast, Simons wasn't so lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading, and continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data, including data cleansing, signaling mechanisms, and backtesting. In 1986, a model framework was used to identify hidden price trends; in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading; in 1992, only a single model was used (a key breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities to speech recognition). The model went through a long process of iterative improvement. Ultimately, the model developed important core capabilities: identifying the \"value of trading,\" including: the certainty of price trends, weight trade-offs between trading signals, and judging the impact of trading based on signals on the market. This capability is particularly important for high-frequency, full-commodity trading.</p><p><b>Winning System: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, both gambling and investing are games based on probability statistics, allocating bets based on the odds of winning (money management based on Kelly's Law). The first major breakthrough for the Grand Medal Fund came from the application of Kelly's Law and the reduction in trading frequency to make its trading more reflective of the law of large numbers. The Grand Medal system makes money as long as the win rate is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of each transaction. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the negligence and mistakes of other traders (the market is ineffective). Human behavior under high pressure is highly predictable, and they instinctively exhibit panic. The premise of modeling is that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros used reflexive philosophical theories to model human behavior, while Simons' team used data and algorithms to model human behavior, thereby confirming the theories of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investing, which simplifies the market to Mr. Market, the experience of quantitative investing is that there are far more factors and variables influencing financial markets and investments than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market inefficiency can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp also goes to great lengths to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors strive to find the most basic drivers, but what may be missing is an entire dimension of information. The Grand Medal Fund cannot explain the logic behind every profit pattern, just as humans cannot understand Alpha Go, which may be a higher dimension.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not omnipotent. When data and desire conflict, even rational scientists cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention was to create an algorithm-driven automated trading system that completely shielded human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he still couldn't help but intervene manually to reduce his dependence on signals and actively reduce his trading positions. The results of these interventions were not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said:<b>Never place too much trust in a trading model. The fundamental mistake made by long-term capital management firms is to believe that models are the truth. We have never believed that our models reflect the whole truth; they only reflect part of it.</b>。”</p><p><b>Kuanke Life</b></p><p>In fact, the interaction between many big shots is far greater than we imagine. For example, Thorp and Buffett played at the bridge table, and after confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, they decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people believe that top students don't necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of school. However, Thorp practiced the way of thinking that applies abstract thinking to real life, truly interpreting \"a fierce life needs no explanation.\" He achieved academic, wealth, and family success, and realized early on that life itself is more important than making money. Compared to Thorp's remarkable life, Simons' life has been full of twists and turns. He has been divorced, his two sons have suffered misfortunes, and he has been betrayed by his partners. But in the end, he chose to make peace with life and devote himself to philanthropy, exploring the true meaning of destiny through ups and downs from his academic career to his wide-ranging life, and the experience itself is the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the finish line is often not so important; the journey itself and the experiences along the way are more precious.<b>No body can take away the dance you have danced.</b></p>","source":"lsy1625911325017","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Giants</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Giants\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">SMARTMATRIX</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Man for All Markets is Edward Thorp's personal biography. Based on Thorp's experience, from beating casinos to entering Wall Street, he ventured into OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives, making him a true All Markets. In his preface, Taleb said that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and The godfather of quantitative investing, he pioneered The introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial trading, influencing countless Quant leaders in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including The renowned James Simons, whose Renaissance Technology company created a legend of returns in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography, The Man Who Solved The Market, details The ups and downs of his and his team's conquest of The financial markets. Although it was compiled by a Wall Street Journal writer based on interviews, it contains many fascinating stories that have never been disclosed before.</p><p><b>academic origin</b></p><p>A thriving culture leads to outstanding people. The so-called place of outstanding people and beautiful resources, for example, the Hunan School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. A similar phenomenon exists in academia. A closer look at the backgrounds of the two big shots reveals many commonalities. They were both born in the 1930s, were exceptionally talented from a young age, were in academia, but both were focused on money, and shared two alma maters: the University of California, Berkeley and MIT. Both universities' academic achievements reached their peak after the war, primarily due to the large-scale military research activities spurred by World War II (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory, and modern computers). Thorp and Simons both happened to catch this academic boom. In the 1950s, Thorp was engrossed in studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons remained engrossed in theoretical mathematical problems, which further enhanced his academic achievements (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>A popular story today is that Thorp used the Law of Large Numbers and Kelly's formula to defeat the casino, becoming the first person in history to be \"blacklisted\" by a Las Vegas casino. In contrast, the hedge fund he founded, Princeton Newport Partners (PNP), is much less well-known. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1% respectively, while the average annual growth rate of the S&P 500 index was 10.2% during the same period. Over the past 19 years, through two oil crises in the 1970s and the 1987 stock market crash, neither fund has ever suffered a single quarterly loss, let alone an annual loss. At the world's largest casino, its performance was unparalleled at the time, and its investment model was 20 years ahead of the customers who subsequently flocked to Wall Street.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to close due to its implications in the Milken case, the king of junk bonds. It was in that year that Simons established the Grand Medal Fund. Now over fifty, he was a late bloomer. He had been exploring successful investment models for 10 years, oscillating between subjective and quantitative approaches. Although Simons has always been regarded as a quantitative investment master, his role is actually completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to discover various scientists from academia to help the company develop quantitative models and to shape the company's corporate culture as a spiritual leader. As a world-class mathematician and outstanding salesperson, he can get along well with different people, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>The road to quantification</b></p><p>As a pioneer in quantitative trading, Thorp excelled at hedging and arbitraging various derivatives, and the bear market and volatility of the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and market sense, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factor models—early quant prototypes. The risks under this model are theoretically infinite, especially since the maximum loss from shorting overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. LTCM subsequently adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked risk control strategies like Thorp, and was defeated by black swan events. To improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs, once again becoming a pioneer in algorithmic Trading.</p><p>In contrast, Simons wasn't so lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading, and continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data, including data cleansing, signaling mechanisms, and backtesting. In 1986, a model framework was used to identify hidden price trends; in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading; in 1992, only a single model was used (a key breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities to speech recognition). The model went through a long process of iterative improvement. Ultimately, the model developed important core capabilities: identifying the \"value of trading,\" including: the certainty of price trends, weight trade-offs between trading signals, and judging the impact of trading based on signals on the market. This capability is particularly important for high-frequency, full-commodity trading.</p><p><b>Winning System: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, both gambling and investing are games based on probability statistics, allocating bets based on the odds of winning (money management based on Kelly's Law). The first major breakthrough for the Grand Medal Fund came from the application of Kelly's Law and the reduction in trading frequency to make its trading more reflective of the law of large numbers. The Grand Medal system makes money as long as the win rate is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of each transaction. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the negligence and mistakes of other traders (the market is ineffective). Human behavior under high pressure is highly predictable, and they instinctively exhibit panic. The premise of modeling is that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros used reflexive philosophical theories to model human behavior, while Simons' team used data and algorithms to model human behavior, thereby confirming the theories of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investing, which simplifies the market to Mr. Market, the experience of quantitative investing is that there are far more factors and variables influencing financial markets and investments than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market inefficiency can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp also goes to great lengths to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors strive to find the most basic drivers, but what may be missing is an entire dimension of information. The Grand Medal Fund cannot explain the logic behind every profit pattern, just as humans cannot understand Alpha Go, which may be a higher dimension.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not omnipotent. When data and desire conflict, even rational scientists cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention was to create an algorithm-driven automated trading system that completely shielded human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he still couldn't help but intervene manually to reduce his dependence on signals and actively reduce his trading positions. The results of these interventions were not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said:<b>Never place too much trust in a trading model. The fundamental mistake made by long-term capital management firms is to believe that models are the truth. We have never believed that our models reflect the whole truth; they only reflect part of it.</b>。”</p><p><b>Kuanke Life</b></p><p>In fact, the interaction between many big shots is far greater than we imagine. For example, Thorp and Buffett played at the bridge table, and after confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, they decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people believe that top students don't necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of school. However, Thorp practiced the way of thinking that applies abstract thinking to real life, truly interpreting \"a fierce life needs no explanation.\" He achieved academic, wealth, and family success, and realized early on that life itself is more important than making money. Compared to Thorp's remarkable life, Simons' life has been full of twists and turns. He has been divorced, his two sons have suffered misfortunes, and he has been betrayed by his partners. But in the end, he chose to make peace with life and devote himself to philanthropy, exploring the true meaning of destiny through ups and downs from his academic career to his wide-ranging life, and the experience itself is the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the finish line is often not so important; the journey itself and the experiences along the way are more precious.<b>No body can take away the dance you have danced.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw\">SMARTMATRIX</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388d882133df2db2363aa871ff756c47","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124741749","content_text":"A Man for All Markets是Edward Thorp的个人传记，中文翻译《战胜一切市场的人》，从Thorp的经历来看，从打败赌场到进入华尔街，OTC期权、可转债、股票、期货等衍生品，全部涉猎，名副其实的All Markets。塔勒布在序言里说，他的回忆录读起来像一部惊悚小说。\n作为一个数学天才、量化投资教父级人物，他开创性的将概率论、信息论、计算机编程引入金融交易，影响了后世无数Quant大佬：Bill Gross、David Shaw、Ken Griffin...其中也包括大名鼎鼎的James Simons，后者的文艺复兴科技公司创造了金融史上的回报率神话，同样，讲述Simons的传记The Man Who Solved The Market，详细记录了他和他的团队征服金融市场的起起落落，虽是一位华尔街日报作家根据采访汇编而成，但其中不少以前从未披露过的精彩故事。\n学术源流\n文化兴，则人杰出，所谓的人杰地灵，比如中国明末以来的湖湘学派让湖南成为革命党人的摇篮。在学术圈，也有类似的现象。仔细研究两位大佬的背景，会发现很多共通点，他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校：加州大学伯克利分校和MIT。两校的学术在战后都达到了巅峰，主要一个原因就是二战催生的大规军事科研活动（著名的曼哈顿计划、密码学、信息论和现代计算机），Thorp和Simons都恰好赶上了这波学术红利。50年代，Thorp醉心于和香农一起研究轮盘赌，而Simons仍埋头于理论数学问题，这也使得其在学术上的成就更高（Chern-Simons Theroy）。60年代，MIT成为计算机革命的中心，而数学和计算机正是通向华尔街的两把钥匙，Thorp正是手握这两把钥匙的幸运儿。\n赌场vs华尔街\n如今为人津津乐道的故事是Thorp利用大数定律和凯利公式打败了赌场，他也成了历史上第一个被拉斯维加斯赌场“拉黑”的人。相比之下，他创设的对冲基金PNP（Princeton Newport Partners）知名度黯淡不少。实际上，从1969年到1988年，PNP两支基金的年化收益率分别达到19.1%和15.1%，同期标普指数年均增长率为10.2%。19年间历经70年代两次石油危机、87年股灾，两只基金从未发生单季亏损，更没有年度亏损。在世间最大的赌场，其业绩冠绝其时，其投资模式，领先此后鱼贯进入华尔街的宽客们20年。\n1988年，Thorp的基金因为受到垃圾债券之王米尔肯一案的牵连被迫关闭。正是在这一年，Simons成立大奖章基金，已年过半百的他，可谓大器晚成，在此前为了寻找成功的投资模型已经摸索了10年之久，一直在主观和量化之间摇摆。尽管外界一直都把Simons视作量化投资大师，但实际上他点角色和Thorp完全不同，他的主要工作并不是开发量化模型，而是从学术圈挖掘各类科学家来帮助公司开发量化模型，并且作为精神领袖塑造公司企业文化。作为一名世界级的数学家+卓越的销售，他与不同的人都能融洽的打交道，这是一种罕见的能力。\n量化之路\n作为量化交易的先驱，Thorp擅长各种衍生品的对冲套利，70年代的熊市和波动率让这种策略运行的非常完美。依靠自己的数学天赋和市场嗅觉发现了新的蓝海：统计套利（Statistical Arbitrage）和因子模型（factors model）——早期的quant原型。这种模式下的风险理论上是无穷的，尤其是做空那些价格高估的股票的损失上限是无穷大，Thorp主要风控策略是分散化投资。此后的LTCM采用类似的套利模式，但缺少Thorp这样的风控策略，被黑天鹅击败。为了提升投资效率，Thorp将投资策略变成程序，再次成为程序化交易（Algorithm Trading）的先驱。\n相比之下，Simons就没那么幸运了。从早期尝试直觉投资到基于趋势的动量交易、反转交易再到持续收集挖掘海量数据包括数据清洗、信号机制和回溯测试。1986年使用识别隐藏价格趋势的模型框架——1989年利用异常交易信号进行短期高频交易——1992年改为只用单一模型（关键性突破），而后语音识别专家帮助进行各种技术突破（金融模型与语音识别有相似之处），模型经历了漫长迭代改进的过程。最终练就了模型重要核心能力：识别出“交易的价值”，包括：价格趋势的确定性大小、交易信号之间的权重取舍、根据信号进行交易对市场造成的影响的判断。这项能力对于高频全品种交易尤为重要。\n取胜系统：概率思考&对人类行为建模\n对Thorp来说，赌博和投资都是以概率统计为基础的游戏，根据胜率的大小来分配下注金额的大小（基于凯利法则的资金管理），而大奖章基金的第一次重大突破也来自于对凯利法则的运用以及缩短交易频率使其交易更体现大数定律。大奖章的系统只要胜率略高于50%就能赚钱，而不在乎每一笔买卖的盈亏。本质上，是在利用其他交易者的疏忽和错误赚钱（市场无效）。人类在高压下的行为具有很高的可预测性，他们会本能地表现出恐慌。建模的前提是人类会不断重复过去的行为。索罗斯曾以反身性的哲学理论对人类行为建模，而Simons的团队利用数据和算法对人类行为建模，以此印证行为金融学的理论。\n与传统的价值投资把市场面简化成一位市场先生不同，量化投资的经验是，影响金融市场和投资的因素和变量远远比大多数人意识到的更多，导致市场无效的因素甚至可以说是加密的（Thorp在书中对有效市场假说也不遗余力的进行驳斥）。投资者努力寻找最基本的推动因素，但是遗漏的也许是一整个维度的信息。大奖章基金无法对每一条盈利的规律背后的逻辑进行解释，就如同人类无法理解阿尔法围棋一样，也许是更高纬度的存在。\n模型是对世界的抽象和简化，但模型并不是万能的。当数据和欲望相冲突，即便是理性的科学家，也无法做到完全理性。Simons的初心是创建的算法驱动的自动交易系统，完全屏蔽人类的主观判断，但每一次危机，他仍忍不住会手动干预，减少对信号的依赖，主动缩减交易头寸，可干预的结果并不十分理想。他的同事帕特森也说：”永远不要对交易模型过于信任。长期资本管理公司的基本错误是认为模型就是事实真相，我们从未相信我们的模型能够反映全部事实，它只反映事实的一部分。”\n宽客人生\n其实很多大佬的交集，远远超过我们想象。比如Thorp和巴菲特在桥牌桌上过过招，在确认巴菲特最终会成为全美最富有的人之后，果断投资了BRK的股票。很多人以为，学霸不一定会拥有好人生，毕竟，book smart和street smart之间的有极大的鸿沟，现实世界的规则比学校要复杂太多，但Thorp践行了将抽象思维运用到现实生活中的思维方式，真正诠释了“彪悍的人生不需要解释”，学术、财富、家庭圆满，很早就意识到在生活本身高于赚钱。相比较Thorp精彩纷呈的人生，Simons的人生曲折太多，离过婚，他的两个儿子先后遭受不幸，还遭遇过伙伴背叛。但最终还是选择和生活讲和，并投身慈善事业，从学术生涯到宽客人生，在跌宕起伏中探寻命运的真谛，而经历本身就是意义所在。就像Thorp在自传末尾所说：生活像是读一本小说或者跑一场马拉松，到达终点往往不是那么重要，旅途本身和沿途的体验更为珍贵。No body can take away the dance you have danced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157175685,"gmtCreate":1625575509547,"gmtModify":1703744076543,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157175685","repostId":"1188552219","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552219","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625573371,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188552219?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 20:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Major regulatory changes for Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552219","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。\n\n【中概股】\n要闻\n周二","content":"<p>On Tuesday, July 6, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, with Nasdaq futures rising alone. Today is the first trading day after the U.S. Independence Day holiday, and the market is awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes later this week and the U.S. services PMI later today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642410d9a3704d939469b26b3cd3115a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>【<b>[Chinese concept stocks]</b></p><p><b>Top News</b></p><p>Tuesday,<b>The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the \"Opinions on Strictly Cracking Down on Securities Violations in The opinion proposes to strengthen the supervision of Chinese concept stocks. We will take concrete measures to respond to risks and emergencies of Chinese companies listed in the US, and promote the construction of relevant regulatory systems. Amend the State Council's special provisions on overseas share issuance and listing of joint-stock companies, clarify the responsibilities of domestic industry authorities and regulatory departments, and strengthen cross-departmental regulatory coordination.</b></p><p>We need to improve relevant laws and regulations on data security, cross-border data flows, and the management of classified information. We must expedite the revision of regulations on strengthening confidentiality and file management related to the issuance and listing of securities overseas, and solidify the primary responsibility for information security of overseas listed companies.</p><p><b>Stock price trend</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>The stock surged nearly 50% in pre-market trading, but the gains narrowed in a \"plunge\" afterward! Market sources say that Weibo Chairman Cao Guowei is in talks with Chinese state-owned investors to privatize the Weibo platform, hoping for a privatization price of $90-100 per share, a premium of 70.13%-89.03% over the previous day's closing price of $52.9. However,<b>The head of the relevant department of Weibo said that the privatization \"rumor is false\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6106699a492d43d0297d4369293ff0b2\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell about 20% in pre-market trading. Last weekend, relevant departments announced a cybersecurity review of Didi Chuxing. To cooperate with the cybersecurity review process and prevent risks from escalating, Didi Chuxing will suspend new user registration during the review period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The group plunged 19% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Zhipin</a>It fell by nearly 10%. Both were subject to cybersecurity reviews by relevant departments.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell more than 6% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Teeth</a>It fell more than 2% in pre-market trading. The report states that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The merger plan of Huya and Douyu, the two dominant domestic live streaming platforms, has been blocked.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 4% in pre-market trading. XPeng will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this Wednesday. Today, the Hong Kong stock market fell below the issue price of HK$165 per share in the grey market, a drop of more than 1%. If XPeng successfully lists on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, it will become the first Chinese automaker in nearly three years to list in New York and Hong Kong on two days.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Buying groceries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>It fell by more than 3%.</p><p>【<b>Important US Stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It rose 1.4% in pre-market trading. Market news: GameStation plans to build a new factory in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to be operational in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It rose more than 3% in pre-market trading. Market news: AMC Cinemas will not seek shareholder approval to increase its share capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTM\">Tata Motors</a>The stock fell more than 8% in pre-market trading as Jaguar Land Rover expects a chip shortage in the second quarter to be more severe than in the first quarter.</p><p>U.S. blockchain stocks generally rose in pre-market trading, but the gains slowed down. Bit Digital rose 1.88%, MicroStrategy rose 1.12%, Riot Blockchain rose 2.15%, and Marathon Patent rose 2.01%.</p><p>【<b>Commodities]</b></p><p>International oil prices have fallen from their highs. Negotiations between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) failed on Monday, with the alliance abandoning the meeting after failing to reach an agreement on output policy for the third time due to opposition from the United Arab Emirates. Markets expected oil supply to tighten, but concerns that member countries might begin to increase production limited gains.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures were trading at $75.83 per barrel, up 0.89%. Brent crude oil futures were trading at $76.92 a barrel, down 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c6e775cc542e59324e8f2fd3ecb0dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>International gold prices rose. Concerns about the global mutation of the virus are rising, and market concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates earlier have eased. The market is currently closely watching the guidance from the Federal Reserve meeting minutes.</p><p>As of press time, gold futures in the New York market were trading at $1,811.90 per ounce, up 1.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a44e298a8125c7cc8c2ffe486bf34b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Major regulatory changes for Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Major regulatory changes for Chinese concept stocks! Weibo's stock price staged a \"roller coaster\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-06 20:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Tuesday, July 6, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, with Nasdaq futures rising alone. Today is the first trading day after the U.S. Independence Day holiday, and the market is awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes later this week and the U.S. services PMI later today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642410d9a3704d939469b26b3cd3115a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>【<b>[Chinese concept stocks]</b></p><p><b>Top News</b></p><p>Tuesday,<b>The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the \"Opinions on Strictly Cracking Down on Securities Violations in The opinion proposes to strengthen the supervision of Chinese concept stocks. We will take concrete measures to respond to risks and emergencies of Chinese companies listed in the US, and promote the construction of relevant regulatory systems. Amend the State Council's special provisions on overseas share issuance and listing of joint-stock companies, clarify the responsibilities of domestic industry authorities and regulatory departments, and strengthen cross-departmental regulatory coordination.</b></p><p>We need to improve relevant laws and regulations on data security, cross-border data flows, and the management of classified information. We must expedite the revision of regulations on strengthening confidentiality and file management related to the issuance and listing of securities overseas, and solidify the primary responsibility for information security of overseas listed companies.</p><p><b>Stock price trend</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>The stock surged nearly 50% in pre-market trading, but the gains narrowed in a \"plunge\" afterward! Market sources say that Weibo Chairman Cao Guowei is in talks with Chinese state-owned investors to privatize the Weibo platform, hoping for a privatization price of $90-100 per share, a premium of 70.13%-89.03% over the previous day's closing price of $52.9. However,<b>The head of the relevant department of Weibo said that the privatization \"rumor is false\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6106699a492d43d0297d4369293ff0b2\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell about 20% in pre-market trading. Last weekend, relevant departments announced a cybersecurity review of Didi Chuxing. To cooperate with the cybersecurity review process and prevent risks from escalating, Didi Chuxing will suspend new user registration during the review period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>The group plunged 19% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Zhipin</a>It fell by nearly 10%. Both were subject to cybersecurity reviews by relevant departments.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell more than 6% in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Teeth</a>It fell more than 2% in pre-market trading. The report states that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The merger plan of Huya and Douyu, the two dominant domestic live streaming platforms, has been blocked.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 4% in pre-market trading. XPeng will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this Wednesday. Today, the Hong Kong stock market fell below the issue price of HK$165 per share in the grey market, a drop of more than 1%. If XPeng successfully lists on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, it will become the first Chinese automaker in nearly three years to list in New York and Hong Kong on two days.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Buying groceries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>It fell by more than 3%.</p><p>【<b>Important US Stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It rose 1.4% in pre-market trading. Market news: GameStation plans to build a new factory in Reno, Nevada, which is expected to be operational in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It rose more than 3% in pre-market trading. Market news: AMC Cinemas will not seek shareholder approval to increase its share capital.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTM\">Tata Motors</a>The stock fell more than 8% in pre-market trading as Jaguar Land Rover expects a chip shortage in the second quarter to be more severe than in the first quarter.</p><p>U.S. blockchain stocks generally rose in pre-market trading, but the gains slowed down. Bit Digital rose 1.88%, MicroStrategy rose 1.12%, Riot Blockchain rose 2.15%, and Marathon Patent rose 2.01%.</p><p>【<b>Commodities]</b></p><p>International oil prices have fallen from their highs. Negotiations between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) failed on Monday, with the alliance abandoning the meeting after failing to reach an agreement on output policy for the third time due to opposition from the United Arab Emirates. Markets expected oil supply to tighten, but concerns that member countries might begin to increase production limited gains.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures were trading at $75.83 per barrel, up 0.89%. Brent crude oil futures were trading at $76.92 a barrel, down 0.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c6e775cc542e59324e8f2fd3ecb0dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>International gold prices rose. Concerns about the global mutation of the virus are rising, and market concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates earlier have eased. The market is currently closely watching the guidance from the Federal Reserve meeting minutes.</p><p>As of press time, gold futures in the New York market were trading at $1,811.90 per ounce, up 1.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a44e298a8125c7cc8c2ffe486bf34b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552219","content_text":"7月6日（周二），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货独自走高。今天是美国独立日假期后首个交易日，市场静待本周晚些时候公布的美联储会议纪要和今日晚些时候公布的美国服务业PMI。\n\n【中概股】\n要闻\n周二，中办、国办印发《关于依法从严打击证券违法活动的意见》。意见提出，要加强中概股监管。切实采取措施做好中概股公司风险及突发情况应对，推进相关监管制度体系建设。修改国务院关于股份有限公司境外募集股份及上市的特别规定，明确境内行业主管和监管部门职责，加强跨部门监管协同。\n要完善数据安全、跨境数据流动、涉密信息管理等相关法律法规。抓紧修订关于加强在境外发行证券与上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定，压实境外上市公司信息安全主体责任。\n股价走势\n微博盘前一度暴涨近50%，后涨幅呈“跳水”式收窄！市场消息称：微博董事长曹国伟和中国国有投资者洽谈将微博平台私有化，希望的私有化价格为每股90-100美元，较前日收盘价52.9美元溢价70.13%-89.03%。不过，微博相关部门负责人表示，私有化“传言不实”。\n\n滴滴盘前跌约20%。上周末，有关部门宣布对滴滴出行实施网络安全审查。为配合网络安全审查工作，防范风险扩大，审查期间滴滴出行停止新用户注册。\n满帮集团盘前大跌19%，BOSS直聘跌近10%。二者均被有关部门进行网络安全审查。\n斗鱼盘前跌超6%，虎牙盘前跌超2%。消息称，腾讯主导的国内两大直播平台虎牙和斗鱼的合并计划已经被阻止。\n小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%。小鹏汽车将于本周三在港交所挂牌上市，今日港股暗盘跌破发行价165港元/股，跌幅超过1%。如果小鹏汽车明天成功在港交所挂牌上市，将成为近三年以来首个在纽约香港两天上市的中国车企。\n同时，理想汽车、蔚来跌超2%。\n热门中概股普遍下跌。其中，知乎跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%，叮咚买菜、每日优鲜跌超5%，好未来、高途跌超3%。\n【重要美股】\n游戏驿站盘前涨1.4%。市场消息：游戏驿站计划在内华达州里诺市建立新工厂，预计于2022年投入运营。\nAMC院线盘前涨超3%。市场消息：AMC院线不会寻求股东批准增加股本。\n塔塔汽车盘前跌超8%，因捷豹路虎预计第二季度芯片短缺的情况将比第一季度更严重。\n美股区块链板块盘前普涨，但涨幅有所回落。Bit Digital涨1.88%，MicroStrategy涨1.12%，Riot Blockchain涨2.15%，Marathon Patent涨2.01%。\n【大宗商品】\n国际油价从高点回落。石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)在周一举行的谈判失败，由于阿联酋的反对，该联盟在第三次未能就产出政策达成协议后放弃了这次会议，市场预期油市供应将趋紧，但对成员国可能开始增产的担忧限制了涨幅。\n截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.83美元/桶，涨幅0.89%；布伦特原油期货价格报76.92美元/桶，跌幅0.31%。\n\n国际金价上涨。全球变异病毒造成的担忧情绪升温，且市场对美联储更早升息的担忧缓和，目前市场密切关注美联储会议纪要的指引。\n截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1811.90美元/盎司，涨幅1.60%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152496729,"gmtCreate":1625323122761,"gmtModify":1703740422407,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152496729","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156848516,"gmtCreate":1625213976635,"gmtModify":1703738489550,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156848516","repostId":"2148687679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148687679","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1625209719,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148687679?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Halve it first, then double it! What did emerging car manufacturers experience in the first half of the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148687679","media":"Wind万得","summary":"在美上市的三家中国电动车新势力均公布了今年上半年销量，全部大幅增长，半年销量接近去年全年。","content":"<p>All three emerging Chinese electric vehicle companies listed in the US have released their sales figures for the first half of this year, all of which showed significant growth. Their half-year sales are close to the total for last year. After a sharp decline at the beginning of the year, their stock prices have launched another offensive. Who will be the first to reach a new historical high?</p><p>July 1st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The company released its June delivery data, showing that it delivered 8,083 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 116.1%, setting a new record.<b>From January to June, a total of 41,956 vehicles were delivered, reaching 95.9% of the total delivery volume for the entire previous year.</b></p><p>on the same day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The company also released its performance report, showing that 6,565 vehicles were delivered in June, a year-on-year increase of 617%.<b>From January to June, the cumulative delivery volume has exceeded its total delivery volume for the entire year of 2020, reaching 30,738 vehicles.</b>XPeng achieved mass production for the first time in June 2018, with only 232 vehicles delivered that year.</p><p>Then on July 2nd,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The company announced that 7,713 Li Auto ONEs were delivered in June, a year-on-year increase of 320.6%, setting a new record for monthly deliveries.<b>From January to June, a total of 30,154 vehicles were delivered.</b>Li Auto made its first delivery in December 2019, with only 1,000 vehicles delivered that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b37547aba879dc1097c41cf53d62e4b\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Of these three companies, Nio was the first to go public in the United States, listing on NASDAQ in 2018. It currently has the highest market capitalization, exceeding $70 billion. XPeng and Li Auto did not cross the ocean until 2020, and their current market capitalization has just exceeded $30 billion.</p><p>In 2020, due to overall loose liquidity, all three companies achieved huge gains. In January of this year, Nio' market capitalization once exceeded 100 billion US dollars, jumping to become the world's fourth largest automaker. In the 2020 Hurun Global 500 list released by the Hurun Research Institute, Nio became the fastest-growing Chinese company in terms of value. Nio rose from the brink of death to become highly sought after, with annual sales soaring to over 43,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%. Its stock price once rose nearly 50 times, achieving a positive gross profit margin.</p><p>Subsequently, due to market concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, the stock market experienced an overall correction, and the share prices of all three companies were halved. Now, driven by sales that far exceeded expectations, they have begun to rebound strongly. At the beginning of the year, all three companies experienced declines of over 50%, with XPeng experiencing the largest drop, approaching 70%, before embarking on a rebound. Li Auto saw the largest rebound, more than doubling, but it was still 30% short of its record high. Nio experienced the weakest rebound, but it also saw a 60% increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135b37f83f0b68dda54c926096011d35\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Deutsche Bank stated that in addition to benefiting from the general rise in growth stocks, there are several other reasons for the simultaneous surge in emerging electric vehicle manufacturers.</p><p>First, before 2023-2024, newcomers to the car manufacturing field...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Companies like the group and Xiaomi may not release any reliable products. Secondly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Poor public relations skills and the possibility of a decrease in new orders are also a major boost to the stock prices of emerging Chinese car manufacturers listed in the US. Furthermore, with the improvement of chip supply, the demand and sales volume of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers are becoming increasingly strong.</p><p><b>The significant increase in sales by these three companies is due to the fact that China...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>The car market as a whole has experienced explosive growth. The forecast for new energy passenger vehicle sales this year has been raised to 2.4 million units.</b></p><p>From January to May this year, wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reached 860,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 times, showing a booming trend. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May this year, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 217,000 units, an increase of 159.7%; From January to May, cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 950,000 units, an increase of 224.2%.</p><p>At the 2021 China Automotive Forum held recently, Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that when the association made its predictions at the beginning of the year, it foresaw the upward trend of the new energy vehicle market and expected that sales of new energy vehicles this year would not be a problem exceeding 2 million units.</p><p>Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the growth rate of my country's new energy vehicle production and sales is expected to remain above 40% in the next five years, and by 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in my country will reach 20%-30%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Halve it first, then double it! What did emerging car manufacturers experience in the first half of the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHalve it first, then double it! What did emerging car manufacturers experience in the first half of the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-02 15:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All three emerging Chinese electric vehicle companies listed in the US have released their sales figures for the first half of this year, all of which showed significant growth. Their half-year sales are close to the total for last year. After a sharp decline at the beginning of the year, their stock prices have launched another offensive. Who will be the first to reach a new historical high?</p><p>July 1st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The company released its June delivery data, showing that it delivered 8,083 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 116.1%, setting a new record.<b>From January to June, a total of 41,956 vehicles were delivered, reaching 95.9% of the total delivery volume for the entire previous year.</b></p><p>on the same day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The company also released its performance report, showing that 6,565 vehicles were delivered in June, a year-on-year increase of 617%.<b>From January to June, the cumulative delivery volume has exceeded its total delivery volume for the entire year of 2020, reaching 30,738 vehicles.</b>XPeng achieved mass production for the first time in June 2018, with only 232 vehicles delivered that year.</p><p>Then on July 2nd,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The company announced that 7,713 Li Auto ONEs were delivered in June, a year-on-year increase of 320.6%, setting a new record for monthly deliveries.<b>From January to June, a total of 30,154 vehicles were delivered.</b>Li Auto made its first delivery in December 2019, with only 1,000 vehicles delivered that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b37547aba879dc1097c41cf53d62e4b\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Of these three companies, Nio was the first to go public in the United States, listing on NASDAQ in 2018. It currently has the highest market capitalization, exceeding $70 billion. XPeng and Li Auto did not cross the ocean until 2020, and their current market capitalization has just exceeded $30 billion.</p><p>In 2020, due to overall loose liquidity, all three companies achieved huge gains. In January of this year, Nio' market capitalization once exceeded 100 billion US dollars, jumping to become the world's fourth largest automaker. In the 2020 Hurun Global 500 list released by the Hurun Research Institute, Nio became the fastest-growing Chinese company in terms of value. Nio rose from the brink of death to become highly sought after, with annual sales soaring to over 43,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%. Its stock price once rose nearly 50 times, achieving a positive gross profit margin.</p><p>Subsequently, due to market concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, the stock market experienced an overall correction, and the share prices of all three companies were halved. Now, driven by sales that far exceeded expectations, they have begun to rebound strongly. At the beginning of the year, all three companies experienced declines of over 50%, with XPeng experiencing the largest drop, approaching 70%, before embarking on a rebound. Li Auto saw the largest rebound, more than doubling, but it was still 30% short of its record high. Nio experienced the weakest rebound, but it also saw a 60% increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135b37f83f0b68dda54c926096011d35\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Deutsche Bank stated that in addition to benefiting from the general rise in growth stocks, there are several other reasons for the simultaneous surge in emerging electric vehicle manufacturers.</p><p>First, before 2023-2024, newcomers to the car manufacturing field...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Companies like the group and Xiaomi may not release any reliable products. Secondly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Poor public relations skills and the possibility of a decrease in new orders are also a major boost to the stock prices of emerging Chinese car manufacturers listed in the US. Furthermore, with the improvement of chip supply, the demand and sales volume of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers are becoming increasingly strong.</p><p><b>The significant increase in sales by these three companies is due to the fact that China...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">Guoxin Energy</a>The car market as a whole has experienced explosive growth. The forecast for new energy passenger vehicle sales this year has been raised to 2.4 million units.</b></p><p>From January to May this year, wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reached 860,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 times, showing a booming trend. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May this year, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 217,000 units, an increase of 159.7%; From January to May, cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 950,000 units, an increase of 224.2%.</p><p>At the 2021 China Automotive Forum held recently, Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that when the association made its predictions at the beginning of the year, it foresaw the upward trend of the new energy vehicle market and expected that sales of new energy vehicles this year would not be a problem exceeding 2 million units.</p><p>Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the growth rate of my country's new energy vehicle production and sales is expected to remain above 40% in the next five years, and by 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in my country will reach 20%-30%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71227747b2f467c4d3104fc183d40594","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148687679","content_text":"在美上市的三家中国电动车新势力均公布了今年上半年销量，全部大幅增长，半年销量接近去年全年，而他们的股价在年初一轮大幅下挫后再次发起攻势，谁能最先创下历史新高?\n7月1日，蔚来发布6月交付数据，数据显示，公司6月交付量达8083辆，同比增长116.1%，创历史新高。1-6月，累计交付41956辆，达到去年全年交付量的95.9%。\n同日，小鹏汽车也公布了成绩单，6月交付量达6565辆，同比增长高达617%。1-6月，累计交付量已经超过其2020年全年的交付量，达到30738辆。小鹏汽车2018年6月首次实现量产，当年交付仅232辆。\n紧接着7月2日，理想汽车公布6月交付7713辆理想ONE，同比增长320.6%，创单月交付量新纪录。1-6月，累计交付30154辆。理想汽车2019年12月首次交付，当年交付量只有1000辆。\n\n这三家公司蔚来最早赴美上市，2018年登陆纳斯达克，目前市值也是最高的，超700亿美元，小鹏和理想则是到2020年才远渡重洋，目前市值刚超300亿美元。\n2020年由于整体流动性宽松，这三家公司全都实现巨额涨幅，今年1月份，蔚来市值一度突破千亿美元，跃升至全球第四大车企。胡润研究院发布的2020胡润世界500强，蔚来成为价值增长最快的中国公司。蔚来从死亡边缘到备受追捧，年销量节节蹿升，超过4.3万台，同比增长112.6%，股价一度涨近50倍，实现了毛利率转正。\n随后市场担心美联储收紧货币政策，股市出现整体回调，这三家公司股价全部腰斩，现在在销量大超预期的带动下，又开始强劲反弹。年初三家公司下跌幅度均超高50%，其中小鹏下跌幅度最高，接近70%，随后开启反弹之路，理想反弹幅度最高，已经翻倍，但是距离历史新高还差30%，蔚来反弹力度最弱，但也有60%的涨幅。\n\n德银表示，除了受益于成长股的普遍上涨之外，造车新势力齐头大涨，还有以下几大原因。\n首先，在2023年-2024年之前，新晋进入造车领域的百度集团、小米等公司可能不会有任何靠谱的产品面世。其次，特斯拉糟糕的公关能力、后续新进订单有可能减少也是中概造车新势力股价的一大助力。还有，随着芯片供应状况改善，造车新势力需求侧和销售量也越来越强劲。\n这三家公司销量大幅上涨的背景是中国新能源车市场整体的井喷式发展。今年新能源乘用车预测销量调高至240万辆。\n今年1-5月新能源车市场批发销量达到86万辆，同比增长2.5倍，走势火爆。根据中国汽车工业协会公布的数据显示，今年5月，国内新能源汽车销量21.7万辆，增长159.7%;1-5月，新能源车累计销量95.0万辆，增长224.2%。\n在日前召开的2021中国汽车论坛上，中国汽车工业协会副秘书长师建华表示，年初协会在预测时，就预感到了新能源汽车市场上涨的趋势，预计今年新能源汽车销量超过200万辆不成问题。\n中国汽车工业协会常务副会长兼秘书长付炳锋则表示，预计未来五年我国新能源汽车产销增速将保持在40%以上，到2025年，我国新能源车销量占比将达到20%-30%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159759561,"gmtCreate":1624981446253,"gmtModify":1703849508367,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159759561","repostId":"1162626672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162626672","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624950782,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162626672?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Warren Buffett summarized 8 valuable experiences and lessons from the pandemic.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162626672","media":"智通财经 ","summary":"许多人成功的方法之一是把每一次危机都当作一个机会来对待。尽管巴菲特向慈善机构捐赠了数十亿美元，但他的净资产在今年3月突破了1000亿美元大关。巴菲特不仅变得更富有，还为其他投资者带来了一些宝贵的经验教","content":"<p><b>One of the ways many people succeed is to treat every crisis as an opportunity.</b>Despite donating billions of dollars to charity, Buffett's net worth surpassed the $100 billion mark in March of this year. Buffett not only became richer, but also brought some valuable lessons to other investors.</p><p>01 New investment? Leveraging the S&P 500</p><p>At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last month, Buffett talked about one of his favorite investments—one that emerged as a winner during the pandemic.</p><p>Buffett said, \"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have long recommended it to people.\" He also said that after his death, 90% of the money he left to his wife will go into the S&P 500 fund.</p><p>The S&P 500 index fund is a mutual fund or ETF that mimics the familiar stock index that tracks the 500 largest companies in the United States. Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 surged 16% in 2020 and reached a new high in 2021.</p><p>At the shareholders meeting in Los Angeles, Buffett said, \"I like Berkshire Hathaway, but I think someone who knows nothing about stocks and has no special feelings about Berkshire Hathaway should buy the S&P 500.\"</p><p>02 Be realistic – even when the market loses its mind</p><p>Buffett advises investors to take a long-term and practical approach, rather than \"making 30 or 40 trades a day.\"</p><p>During the meeting, Buffett presented two slides showing the 20 largest companies in the world by market capitalization today and in 1989. None of the companies that made the list in 1989 are from the 2021 version. The lesson is: life is unpredictable, and picking winners is not easy.</p><p>\"If you only hold diversified stocks, like U.S. stocks, that would be my preference, but hold them for more than 30 years,\" he said.</p><p>03 Don't count on pensions</p><p>A more worrying trend that Buffett delved into at a Berkshire Hathaway conference was the increasingly unstable status of pension funds in many states, an issue he said he had been concerned about since 2013.</p><p>\"The pension situation in many states is terrible,\" Buffett said. \"The situation hasn't improved. Clearly, it hasn't improved at all.\"</p><p>The pandemic has already strangled state finances and will only exacerbate pension problems for which there is currently no long-term solution. Data from Pew Charitable Trusts shows that before the pandemic began, the national pension plan already lacked $1 trillion to meet its future obligations to retirees.</p><p>04 Investors should be wary of certain investments.</p><p>Buffett sold airline stocks because of COVID-19.</p><p>The pandemic crisis devastated the entire aviation industry, but airlines survived with the help of the government. But without this support, you will see a completely new plane crash. The industry still has several months to return to normal business (and normal profit margins).</p><p>\"I still don't want to buy airlines,\" Buffett told his Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Delta Air Lines (DAL) was one of the airlines that Berkshire Hathaway sold from its portfolio, and its stock price fell by more than half between March 1 and May 15 last year. Since then, the stock prices of the company and other major U.S. airlines have rebounded, but Buffett has little confidence in the economic fundamentals of the aviation industry.</p><p>05 Stick to your long-term plan</p><p>Buffett says to stick to your financial goals. Buffett still believes that the U.S. economy will rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, but he told shareholders that the future is far from certain.</p><p>“You can bet on the United States, but you have to be careful how you bet,” he said. He later reiterated that the world can change in \"very, very dramatic ways\".</p><p>Buffett has never wavered in his belief that holding stocks for the long term is the right investment strategy for a stable financial future. At the Berkshire meeting, he was even reminded that he had once said that holding a stock forever was \"too short.\"</p><p>06 Make full use of low interest rates</p><p>With interest rates falling, Buffett says now is a good time to borrow money.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve committed to keeping key interest rates near zero, Buffett believes borrowers will have an excellent opportunity in 2021.</p><p>“These are fascinating times,” Buffett told investors, adding that the low-interest-rate environment is “very pleasant.”</p><p>“The economy fell off a cliff in March 2020,” Buffett said. \"Through the actions of the Federal Reserve, it was resurrected in a very effective way.\"</p><p>07 Avoid Credit Card Debt</p><p>If you have credit card debt, get rid of it, says Buffett.</p><p>The pandemic has led to business closures and layoffs, forcing millions of Americans to rely on credit cards to meet basic financial needs. This is a good survival strategy, but the resulting balance and high interest rates can create long-term financial pressure.</p><p>At Berkshire's 2020 online shareholder meeting, he recalled his advice to a friend who had received a windfall and was considering the wisest way to spend. She told Buffett that she still had credit card debt—at 18% interest.</p><p>Buffett remembers telling her, \"If I had 18% debt, the first thing I would do with the money I had was pay it off.\" \"You can't borrow money at that interest rate your whole life and then live a better life.\"</p><p>08 Always prepare for the worst</p><p>Buffett says a \"catastrophe\" is coming. It's not without reason that Buffett is called an \"oracle\". In 2019, he warned that the world would face a \"catastrophe\" that would dwarf the chaos caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Michael.</p><p>When the pandemic first hit the United States, Buffett said in an interview, \"I always felt that a pandemic was going to happen sooner or later.\"</p><p>You might think that someone who has invested so much in insurance would have such foresight—Berkshire Hathaway owns Geico and several other insurers—that preparing for the worst is a core part of the business model.</p><p>“Over the past 15 months, we’ve seen some strange things happen in the world,” he told his investors this year. \"And we are always aware that stranger things will happen in the future.\"</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett summarized 8 valuable experiences and lessons from the pandemic.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett summarized 8 valuable experiences and lessons from the pandemic.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>One of the ways many people succeed is to treat every crisis as an opportunity.</b>Despite donating billions of dollars to charity, Buffett's net worth surpassed the $100 billion mark in March of this year. Buffett not only became richer, but also brought some valuable lessons to other investors.</p><p>01 New investment? Leveraging the S&P 500</p><p>At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last month, Buffett talked about one of his favorite investments—one that emerged as a winner during the pandemic.</p><p>Buffett said, \"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have long recommended it to people.\" He also said that after his death, 90% of the money he left to his wife will go into the S&P 500 fund.</p><p>The S&P 500 index fund is a mutual fund or ETF that mimics the familiar stock index that tracks the 500 largest companies in the United States. Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 surged 16% in 2020 and reached a new high in 2021.</p><p>At the shareholders meeting in Los Angeles, Buffett said, \"I like Berkshire Hathaway, but I think someone who knows nothing about stocks and has no special feelings about Berkshire Hathaway should buy the S&P 500.\"</p><p>02 Be realistic – even when the market loses its mind</p><p>Buffett advises investors to take a long-term and practical approach, rather than \"making 30 or 40 trades a day.\"</p><p>During the meeting, Buffett presented two slides showing the 20 largest companies in the world by market capitalization today and in 1989. None of the companies that made the list in 1989 are from the 2021 version. The lesson is: life is unpredictable, and picking winners is not easy.</p><p>\"If you only hold diversified stocks, like U.S. stocks, that would be my preference, but hold them for more than 30 years,\" he said.</p><p>03 Don't count on pensions</p><p>A more worrying trend that Buffett delved into at a Berkshire Hathaway conference was the increasingly unstable status of pension funds in many states, an issue he said he had been concerned about since 2013.</p><p>\"The pension situation in many states is terrible,\" Buffett said. \"The situation hasn't improved. Clearly, it hasn't improved at all.\"</p><p>The pandemic has already strangled state finances and will only exacerbate pension problems for which there is currently no long-term solution. Data from Pew Charitable Trusts shows that before the pandemic began, the national pension plan already lacked $1 trillion to meet its future obligations to retirees.</p><p>04 Investors should be wary of certain investments.</p><p>Buffett sold airline stocks because of COVID-19.</p><p>The pandemic crisis devastated the entire aviation industry, but airlines survived with the help of the government. But without this support, you will see a completely new plane crash. The industry still has several months to return to normal business (and normal profit margins).</p><p>\"I still don't want to buy airlines,\" Buffett told his Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Delta Air Lines (DAL) was one of the airlines that Berkshire Hathaway sold from its portfolio, and its stock price fell by more than half between March 1 and May 15 last year. Since then, the stock prices of the company and other major U.S. airlines have rebounded, but Buffett has little confidence in the economic fundamentals of the aviation industry.</p><p>05 Stick to your long-term plan</p><p>Buffett says to stick to your financial goals. Buffett still believes that the U.S. economy will rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, but he told shareholders that the future is far from certain.</p><p>“You can bet on the United States, but you have to be careful how you bet,” he said. He later reiterated that the world can change in \"very, very dramatic ways\".</p><p>Buffett has never wavered in his belief that holding stocks for the long term is the right investment strategy for a stable financial future. At the Berkshire meeting, he was even reminded that he had once said that holding a stock forever was \"too short.\"</p><p>06 Make full use of low interest rates</p><p>With interest rates falling, Buffett says now is a good time to borrow money.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve committed to keeping key interest rates near zero, Buffett believes borrowers will have an excellent opportunity in 2021.</p><p>“These are fascinating times,” Buffett told investors, adding that the low-interest-rate environment is “very pleasant.”</p><p>“The economy fell off a cliff in March 2020,” Buffett said. \"Through the actions of the Federal Reserve, it was resurrected in a very effective way.\"</p><p>07 Avoid Credit Card Debt</p><p>If you have credit card debt, get rid of it, says Buffett.</p><p>The pandemic has led to business closures and layoffs, forcing millions of Americans to rely on credit cards to meet basic financial needs. This is a good survival strategy, but the resulting balance and high interest rates can create long-term financial pressure.</p><p>At Berkshire's 2020 online shareholder meeting, he recalled his advice to a friend who had received a windfall and was considering the wisest way to spend. She told Buffett that she still had credit card debt—at 18% interest.</p><p>Buffett remembers telling her, \"If I had 18% debt, the first thing I would do with the money I had was pay it off.\" \"You can't borrow money at that interest rate your whole life and then live a better life.\"</p><p>08 Always prepare for the worst</p><p>Buffett says a \"catastrophe\" is coming. It's not without reason that Buffett is called an \"oracle\". In 2019, he warned that the world would face a \"catastrophe\" that would dwarf the chaos caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Michael.</p><p>When the pandemic first hit the United States, Buffett said in an interview, \"I always felt that a pandemic was going to happen sooner or later.\"</p><p>You might think that someone who has invested so much in insurance would have such foresight—Berkshire Hathaway owns Geico and several other insurers—that preparing for the worst is a core part of the business model.</p><p>“Over the past 15 months, we’ve seen some strange things happen in the world,” he told his investors this year. \"And we are always aware that stranger things will happen in the future.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/503261.html\">智通财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/503261.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162626672","content_text":"许多人成功的方法之一是把每一次危机都当作一个机会来对待。尽管巴菲特向慈善机构捐赠了数十亿美元，但他的净资产在今年3月突破了1000亿美元大关。巴菲特不仅变得更富有，还为其他投资者带来了一些宝贵的经验教训。\n01  新投资吗?利用标普500\n在上个月伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的年会上，巴菲特谈到了他最喜欢的一项投资——该投资在疫情期间成为赢家。\n巴菲特说:“我推荐标普500指数基金，并且长期以来一直向人们推荐。”他还说，在他去世后，他留给妻子的90%的钱将进入标普500基金。\n标普500指数基金是模仿人们熟悉的跟踪美国500家最大公司的股票指数的共同基金或ETF。尽管疫情爆发，标普500指数在2020年飙升16%，并在2021年创下新高。\n巴菲特在洛杉矶的股东大会上表示:“我喜欢伯克希尔，但我认为一个对股票一无所知，对伯克希尔没有任何特殊感觉的人，他们应该购买标普500指数。”\n02  要实际——即使在市场失去理智的时候\n巴菲特建议投资者长期且实际的方法，而不是“每天进行30或40笔交易。”\n在会议期间，巴菲特展示了两张幻灯片，展示了当今和1989年全球市值最大的20家公司。89年上榜的公司没有一家是2021年版的。教训是:世事无常，挑选赢家并不容易。\n\"如果你只持有多元化的股票，比如美国股票，那将是我的偏好，但要持有超过30年，\"他说。\n03  不要指望养老金\n巴菲特在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的会议上深入研究的一个更令人担忧的趋势，许多州养老基金的地位越来越不稳定，他说他从2013年就开始关注这个问题。\n巴菲特说:“很多州的养老金状况都很糟糕。”“情况并没有好转。显然，情况一点也没有好转。”\n疫情已经扼杀了各州的财政，只会加剧目前没有长期解决方案的养老金问题。Pew Charitable Trusts的数据显示，在大流行开始之前，国家养老金计划已经缺乏1万亿美元的资金来满足未来对退休人员的义务。\n04  投资者应该对某些投资保持警惕\n巴菲特因为COVID-19的原因抛售了航空股。\n疫情危机摧毁了整个航空行业，然而航空公司在政府的帮助下幸存下来。但如果没有这种支持，你会看到一场全新的空难。要想恢复正常的业务(以及正常的利润率)，该行业还有好几个月的时间。\n“我还是不想买航空公司，”巴菲特告诉他的伯克希尔股东。\n达美航空(DAL)是伯克希尔从其投资组合中抛售的航空公司之一，该公司股价在去年3月1日至5月15日期间下跌了一半以上。此后，该股和美国其他主要航空公司的股价都有所回升，但巴菲特对航空业的经济基本面没有多大信心。\n05  坚持你的长期计划\n巴菲特说，要坚持你的财务目标。巴菲特仍然相信，美国经济将从COVID - 19危机中反弹，但他告诉股东，未来远非确定。\n“你可以押注美国，但你必须小心如何押注，”他说。他后来重申，世界可以以“非常、非常戏剧性的方式”发生变化。\n巴菲特从来没有动摇过他的信念，长期持有股票是一个稳定的财务未来的正确投资策略。在伯克希尔的会议上，他甚至被提醒说，他曾经说过永远持有一只股票“太短了”。\n06  充分利用低利率\n随着利率的下降，巴菲特说现在是借钱的好时机。\n由于美联储承诺将关键利率维持在接近零的水平，巴菲特认为2021年借款人将有极好的机会。\n“这是一个迷人的时代，”巴菲特告诉投资者，并补充说低利率环境“非常令人愉快”。\n“经济在2020年3月跌落悬崖，”巴菲特说。“通过美联储的行动，它以一种非常有效的方式复活了。”\n07  避免信用卡债务\n巴菲特说，如果你有信用卡债务，那就摆脱它。\n疫情导致企业关闭和裁员，迫使数百万美国人依靠信用卡来满足基本的金融需求。这是一个很好的生存策略，但由此产生的平衡和高利率会造成长期的财务压力。\n在伯克希尔2020年的在线股东大会上，他回忆了自己给一位获得意外之财的朋友的建议，这位朋友当时正在考虑最明智的消费方式。她告诉巴菲特，她还有信用卡债务——利息为18%。\n巴菲特记得对她说:“如果我有18%的债务，我会用手头的钱做的第一件事就是还清。”“你不可能一辈子都以这样的利率借钱，然后过得更好。”\n08  总是做最坏打算\n巴菲特说，一场“大灾难”即将来临。称巴菲特为“神谕”不是没有原因的。2019年，他警告说，世界将迎来一场“特大灾难”，这将使卡特里娜飓风和迈克尔飓风造成的混乱相形见绌。\n当疫情首次袭击美国时，巴菲特在一次采访中说，“我一直觉得一场大流行迟早会发生。”\n你可能会认为，在保险业投入如此之多的人会有这样的远见——伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有Geico和其他几家保险公司——为最坏的情况做准备是商业模式的核心部分。\n“过去15个月里，我们看到世界上发生了一些奇怪的事情，”他今年告诉他的投资者。“而且我们总是意识到未来会发生更奇怪的事情。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127759612,"gmtCreate":1624870645036,"gmtModify":1703846663948,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127759612","repostId":"1146211062","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146211062","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624868185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146211062?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A 48-year investment veteran predicts: US stocks may plummet by 65%-80% this fall!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146211062","media":"FX168","summary":"美联储低估了通胀的热度和持续时间，并指责财政支出增加和印钞是导致通胀的原因。","content":"<p>Text / TIER</p><p>At a time when the US stock market is at a high level, another heavyweight figure has issued a warning. David Hunter, chief Macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors with 48 years of market experience, recently warned that inflation will last longer than expected, forcing the Federal Reserve (FED) to tighten monetary policy and causing the U.S. stock market to plummet by 65% to 80% by the end of this year.</p><p>According to Business Insider, the forecasts of David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian macro Advisors, have so far remained largely on track. For example, last December, when the S&P 500 was around 3,700 points (its highest level at the time), Hunter said he expected the index to surge to 4,500 points in mid-2021, at the high end of Wall Street strategists' targets. Since then, the index has broken through 4200 points, a record high.</p><p>Earlier this year, he also predicted that the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield would fall to around 1.2%, after the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield jumped more than 80 basis points to 1.73% between January and March.</p><p>To be fair, in the first half of this year, people were easily bullish on the stock market due to the economic recovery caused by COVID-19 vaccinations and strong fiscal stimulus measures. Last December, JPMorgan Chase described the stock market environment as a \"market paradise\".</p><p>But now it's time for Hunter's predictions to get interesting. He reiterated last week that he believes the S&P 500 will peak around July or August, which is a few weeks later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eedb0c9969cabd85cd0b0a7d8b3b9056\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Screenshot source: Business Insider)</p><p>The report points out that the peaking process may initially appear benign, as the stock market may test the high again after peaking. But he said that as autumn approaches, the stock market will start to fall 65%-80% from around 4,500 points. If it falls 65% from 4,500 points, the S&P 500 will fall to around 1,500 points.</p><p><b>Hunter stated that the catalyst for this catastrophic decline will be inflation. He believes the Federal Reserve underestimated the intensity and duration of inflation and blames increased fiscal spending and money printing for the inflation.</b></p><p>He stated that when high inflation persists, the Federal Reserve will be forced to tighten monetary policy and reduce its balance sheet by slowing bond purchases, which will remove liquidity from the market. It is believed that the strong performance of the stock market is related to high liquidity levels.</p><p>Hunter predicted in May of this year that the Federal Reserve could withdraw up to $1 trillion from its balance sheet.</p><p>In a video interview with Adam Taggart, founder of investment advisory firm Wealthion, Hunter said, \"I think the idea that we can spend money like drunk sailors without any consequences is leading the market to disaster.\"</p><p>The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its policy interest rate unchanged at its June meeting and did not change its asset purchase program, but the committee raised its inflation forecasts for this year and next, suggesting that rate hike may be faster than expected.</p><p>The dot plot shows that more and more Federal Reserve officials are turning \"hawkish\": of the 18 officials who participated in the forecast, 7 expect rate hike to begin in 2022, compared to 4 in March of this year; Thirteen officials are expected to begin their rate hike in 2023, compared to seven in March of this year.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce last Friday showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.9% year-on-year in May, in line with expectations. The U.S. core PCE price index rose 3.4% year-on-year in May, the largest year-on-year increase since April 1992.</p>","source":"fx168","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A 48-year investment veteran predicts: US stocks may plummet by 65%-80% this fall!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA 48-year investment veteran predicts: US stocks may plummet by 65%-80% this fall!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 16:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text / TIER</p><p>At a time when the US stock market is at a high level, another heavyweight figure has issued a warning. David Hunter, chief Macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors with 48 years of market experience, recently warned that inflation will last longer than expected, forcing the Federal Reserve (FED) to tighten monetary policy and causing the U.S. stock market to plummet by 65% to 80% by the end of this year.</p><p>According to Business Insider, the forecasts of David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian macro Advisors, have so far remained largely on track. For example, last December, when the S&P 500 was around 3,700 points (its highest level at the time), Hunter said he expected the index to surge to 4,500 points in mid-2021, at the high end of Wall Street strategists' targets. Since then, the index has broken through 4200 points, a record high.</p><p>Earlier this year, he also predicted that the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield would fall to around 1.2%, after the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield jumped more than 80 basis points to 1.73% between January and March.</p><p>To be fair, in the first half of this year, people were easily bullish on the stock market due to the economic recovery caused by COVID-19 vaccinations and strong fiscal stimulus measures. Last December, JPMorgan Chase described the stock market environment as a \"market paradise\".</p><p>But now it's time for Hunter's predictions to get interesting. He reiterated last week that he believes the S&P 500 will peak around July or August, which is a few weeks later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eedb0c9969cabd85cd0b0a7d8b3b9056\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Screenshot source: Business Insider)</p><p>The report points out that the peaking process may initially appear benign, as the stock market may test the high again after peaking. But he said that as autumn approaches, the stock market will start to fall 65%-80% from around 4,500 points. If it falls 65% from 4,500 points, the S&P 500 will fall to around 1,500 points.</p><p><b>Hunter stated that the catalyst for this catastrophic decline will be inflation. He believes the Federal Reserve underestimated the intensity and duration of inflation and blames increased fiscal spending and money printing for the inflation.</b></p><p>He stated that when high inflation persists, the Federal Reserve will be forced to tighten monetary policy and reduce its balance sheet by slowing bond purchases, which will remove liquidity from the market. It is believed that the strong performance of the stock market is related to high liquidity levels.</p><p>Hunter predicted in May of this year that the Federal Reserve could withdraw up to $1 trillion from its balance sheet.</p><p>In a video interview with Adam Taggart, founder of investment advisory firm Wealthion, Hunter said, \"I think the idea that we can spend money like drunk sailors without any consequences is leading the market to disaster.\"</p><p>The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its policy interest rate unchanged at its June meeting and did not change its asset purchase program, but the committee raised its inflation forecasts for this year and next, suggesting that rate hike may be faster than expected.</p><p>The dot plot shows that more and more Federal Reserve officials are turning \"hawkish\": of the 18 officials who participated in the forecast, 7 expect rate hike to begin in 2022, compared to 4 in March of this year; Thirteen officials are expected to begin their rate hike in 2023, compared to seven in March of this year.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce last Friday showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.9% year-on-year in May, in line with expectations. The U.S. core PCE price index rose 3.4% year-on-year in May, the largest year-on-year increase since April 1992.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.fx168.com.cn/stock/us/2106/5152829.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.fx168.com.cn/stock/us/2106/5152829.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146211062","content_text":"文 / TIER\n在美国股市处于高位之际，又有一位重量级人物发出警告声音。有48年市场经验的Contrarian Macro Advisors首席宏观策略师David Hunter日前警告称，通货膨胀将较预期更持久，导致美联储(FED)被迫紧缩货币政策，令美国股市在今年底前暴跌65%到80%。\n“商业内幕”网站(Business Insider)报道称，到目前为止，Contrarian macro Advisors首席宏观策略师David Hunter的预测基本上保持在正确的轨道上。例如，去年12月，当标普500指数处于3700点左右(当时的历史最高水平)时，Hunter表示，他预计该指数将在2021年年中飙升至4500点，处于华尔街策略师目标的高端。自那以来，该指数已突破4200点，创历史新高。\n他今年早些时候还预测，10年期美国国债收益率将降至1.2%左右，此前1月至3月，10年期美国国债收益率跃升80多个基点至1.73%。\n公平地说，今年上半年，由于新冠疫苗接种和强劲的财政刺激措施，经济回暖，人们很容易看好股市。去年12月，摩根大通称股市环境为“市场天堂”。\n但现在是Hunter的预测变得有趣的时候。他在上周重申，他认为标普500指数将在7月或8月左右见顶，也就是几周后。\n\n(截图来源：Business Insider)\n报道指出，触顶过程一开始可能看起来是良性的，因为股市可能会在见顶后再次测试高点。但他说，随着秋季临近，股市将从4,500点左右开始下跌65%-80%。如果从4,500点下跌65%，标准普尔500指数将跌至1,500点左右。\nHunter表示，引发这种灾难性下滑的催化剂将是通胀。他认为，美联储低估了通胀的热度和持续时间，并指责财政支出增加和印钞是导致通胀的原因。\n他表示，当高通胀持续时，美联储将被迫收紧货币政策，通过放缓债券购买来缩减资产负债表规模，这将从市场中移除流动性。人们认为，股市的强劲表现与高流动性水平有关。\nHunter曾在今年5月预测，美联储可能会从其资产负债表上撤出高达1万亿美元的资金。\nHunter在接受投资咨询公司Wealthion创始人亚当·塔格特(Adam Taggart)的视频采访时说：“我认为，认为我们可以像喝醉的水手那样花钱、且不用承担任何后果的看法，正让市场走向灾难。”\n美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在6月会议上维持政策利率不变，也没有改变其资产购买计划，但该委员会上调了今明两年的通胀预期，暗示加息或快于预期。\n点阵图显示，越来越多的美联储官员转向“鹰派”：18名参与预测的官员中，7名官员预计在2022年开始加息，今年3月时为4名；13名官员预计在2023年开始加息，今年3月时为7名委员。\n美国商务部当地时间上周五公布的数据显示，美国5月个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年率上升3.9%，升幅符合预期；美国5月核心PCE物价指数同比增长3.4%，创1992年4月以来的最大同比增幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127727134,"gmtCreate":1624870520628,"gmtModify":1703846660253,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127727134","repostId":"1175717613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175717613","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624799107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175717613?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Growth VS. value: the biggest divide in the US stock market right now.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175717613","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n\n行至年中，笼罩的美股上方的不确定性越来越大，对美股风格也产生了巨大影响，一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n就不确定性而言，一方面，美国货币和财政支持可能","content":"<p>A battle is underway between growth stocks and value stocks. As we approach the middle of the year, the uncertainty surrounding US stocks is increasing, which has had a huge impact on the style of US stocks, and a battle between growth stocks and value stocks is underway.</p><p>In terms of uncertainty, on the one hand, U.S. monetary and fiscal support may decrease, which will weaken the current economic recovery and put pressure on corporate earnings growth. In addition, the U.S. government's plans to raise taxes are another potential deterrent.</p><p>On the other hand, inflation has become another major uncertainty affecting the performance of US stocks. If upward pressure on prices continues, resulting in higher rate hike expectations, US stocks may experience a bumpy road.</p><p>These uncertainties dominate the performance of growth and value stocks, and changes in inflation and monetary policy towards expectations will determine the style of US stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>As previously mentioned by Wall Street Insights, since the beginning of this year, as US Treasury yields have risen rapidly and US stocks have rotated rapidly, the stock prices of tech giants that were enjoying great success during the pandemic have corrected sharply, while cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic recovery have rebounded collectively.</p><p>However, recently, as inflation expectations have cooled and US Treasury yields have declined, technology stocks have regained market favor, especially since the Federal Reserve hinted at an earlier-than-expected rate hike, which has intensified the rise in technology stocks.</p><p>Many analysts have sided with technology stocks, believing that after a correction, the valuations of American tech giants have begun to show attractiveness, which means that these tech leaders are expected to continue to rise.</p><p>Barclays strategist Maneesh Deshpande believes that U.S. tech stocks are currently relatively cheap. According to Barclays data, FANMAG currently has an average expected P/E of 29.9 times. This is only slightly higher than about 28 times before the pandemic began in December 2019, and a significant drop from the peak of 40 times in the middle of last year.</p><p>Jason Pride, Chief Investment Officer of Glenmede Private Wealth, believes that the rally in value stocks is not over yet, and value stocks will outperform technology stocks.</p><p>We are still in the process of fundamental recovery, with both economic growth and revenue improving. Our basic assumption is that inflation will eventually stabilize between 2% and 3%, which will benefit value stocks more than growth stocks. Morgan Stanley Asset Management also favors value stocks. Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at the firm, said that people tend to hold inflation-sensitive stocks when the economy is stronger, and people may underestimate the duration of this cycle.</p><p>Slimmon points out that value stocks remain cheap relative to the broader market, and the phase of value stocks outperforming large-cap stocks will continue.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Growth VS. value: the biggest divide in the US stock market right now.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrowth VS. value: the biggest divide in the US stock market right now.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 21:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A battle is underway between growth stocks and value stocks. As we approach the middle of the year, the uncertainty surrounding US stocks is increasing, which has had a huge impact on the style of US stocks, and a battle between growth stocks and value stocks is underway.</p><p>In terms of uncertainty, on the one hand, U.S. monetary and fiscal support may decrease, which will weaken the current economic recovery and put pressure on corporate earnings growth. In addition, the U.S. government's plans to raise taxes are another potential deterrent.</p><p>On the other hand, inflation has become another major uncertainty affecting the performance of US stocks. If upward pressure on prices continues, resulting in higher rate hike expectations, US stocks may experience a bumpy road.</p><p>These uncertainties dominate the performance of growth and value stocks, and changes in inflation and monetary policy towards expectations will determine the style of US stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>As previously mentioned by Wall Street Insights, since the beginning of this year, as US Treasury yields have risen rapidly and US stocks have rotated rapidly, the stock prices of tech giants that were enjoying great success during the pandemic have corrected sharply, while cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic recovery have rebounded collectively.</p><p>However, recently, as inflation expectations have cooled and US Treasury yields have declined, technology stocks have regained market favor, especially since the Federal Reserve hinted at an earlier-than-expected rate hike, which has intensified the rise in technology stocks.</p><p>Many analysts have sided with technology stocks, believing that after a correction, the valuations of American tech giants have begun to show attractiveness, which means that these tech leaders are expected to continue to rise.</p><p>Barclays strategist Maneesh Deshpande believes that U.S. tech stocks are currently relatively cheap. According to Barclays data, FANMAG currently has an average expected P/E of 29.9 times. This is only slightly higher than about 28 times before the pandemic began in December 2019, and a significant drop from the peak of 40 times in the middle of last year.</p><p>Jason Pride, Chief Investment Officer of Glenmede Private Wealth, believes that the rally in value stocks is not over yet, and value stocks will outperform technology stocks.</p><p>We are still in the process of fundamental recovery, with both economic growth and revenue improving. Our basic assumption is that inflation will eventually stabilize between 2% and 3%, which will benefit value stocks more than growth stocks. Morgan Stanley Asset Management also favors value stocks. Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at the firm, said that people tend to hold inflation-sensitive stocks when the economy is stronger, and people may underestimate the duration of this cycle.</p><p>Slimmon points out that value stocks remain cheap relative to the broader market, and the phase of value stocks outperforming large-cap stocks will continue.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175717613","content_text":"一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n\n行至年中，笼罩的美股上方的不确定性越来越大，对美股风格也产生了巨大影响，一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n就不确定性而言，一方面，美国货币和财政支持可能会减少，这将削弱当前经济复苏的活力，并对企业盈利增长造成压力。此外美国政府酝酿提高税收的计划是另一个潜在的抑制因素。\n另一方面，通胀走势成为牵动美股走势的另一大不确定性，如果价格的上行压力持续，结果是加息预期上升，美股可能会经历一段坎坷之路。\n这些不确定性主宰着成长和价值股票走势，通胀和货币政策走向预期的变动将决定美股下半年的风格。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，今年初以来，随着美债收益率快速走高，美股快速轮动，疫情期间风光无限的科技巨头们股价大幅回调，而对经济复苏较为敏感的周期股集体反弹。\n但近期，随着通胀预期降温，美债收益率下行，科技股重获市场青睐，尤其是美联储暗示将早于预期加息以来，科技股涨势加剧。\n有不少分析师站队科技股，认为经过一番回调，目前美国科技巨头们的估值已经开始彰显吸引力，这意味着这些科技领头羊有望继续上涨。\n巴克莱策略师Maneesh Deshpande认为目前美国科技股相对便宜。巴克莱(Barclays)的数据显示，FANMAG目前的平均预期市盈率为29.9倍。这只比2019年12月大流行开始前的约28倍高一点点，比去年年中40倍的峰值大幅下降。\n格伦米德(Glenmede)私人财富首席投资官Jason Pride则认为，价值股的行情还未结束，价值股将跑赢科技股：\n\n 我们仍处于基本面复苏之中，经济增长和收入都有所提高。我们的基本假设是，通胀最终会稳定在2%至3%之间，这对价值股的益处将大于成长股。\n\n摩根士丹利资产管理公司也偏好价值股。该机构高级投资组合经理Andrew Slimmon表示，在经济形势更为强劲的时候，倾向于持有对通胀敏感的股票，而人们可能低估了这个周期的持续时间。\nSlimmon指出，相对于更广泛的市场，价值型股票仍然很便宜，价值股表现超大盘的阶段将持续下去。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127985303,"gmtCreate":1624816118202,"gmtModify":1703845492768,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127985303","repostId":"1175717613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175717613","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624799107,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175717613?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Growth VS. value: the biggest divide in the US stock market right now.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175717613","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n\n行至年中，笼罩的美股上方的不确定性越来越大，对美股风格也产生了巨大影响，一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n就不确定性而言，一方面，美国货币和财政支持可能","content":"<p>A battle is underway between growth stocks and value stocks. As we approach the middle of the year, the uncertainty surrounding US stocks is increasing, which has had a huge impact on the style of US stocks, and a battle between growth stocks and value stocks is underway.</p><p>In terms of uncertainty, on the one hand, U.S. monetary and fiscal support may decrease, which will weaken the current economic recovery and put pressure on corporate earnings growth. In addition, the U.S. government's plans to raise taxes are another potential deterrent.</p><p>On the other hand, inflation has become another major uncertainty affecting the performance of US stocks. If upward pressure on prices continues, resulting in higher rate hike expectations, US stocks may experience a bumpy road.</p><p>These uncertainties dominate the performance of growth and value stocks, and changes in inflation and monetary policy towards expectations will determine the style of US stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>As previously mentioned by Wall Street Insights, since the beginning of this year, as US Treasury yields have risen rapidly and US stocks have rotated rapidly, the stock prices of tech giants that were enjoying great success during the pandemic have corrected sharply, while cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic recovery have rebounded collectively.</p><p>However, recently, as inflation expectations have cooled and US Treasury yields have declined, technology stocks have regained market favor, especially since the Federal Reserve hinted at an earlier-than-expected rate hike, which has intensified the rise in technology stocks.</p><p>Many analysts have sided with technology stocks, believing that after a correction, the valuations of American tech giants have begun to show attractiveness, which means that these tech leaders are expected to continue to rise.</p><p>Barclays strategist Maneesh Deshpande believes that U.S. tech stocks are currently relatively cheap. According to Barclays data, FANMAG currently has an average expected P/E of 29.9 times. This is only slightly higher than about 28 times before the pandemic began in December 2019, and a significant drop from the peak of 40 times in the middle of last year.</p><p>Jason Pride, Chief Investment Officer of Glenmede Private Wealth, believes that the rally in value stocks is not over yet, and value stocks will outperform technology stocks.</p><p>We are still in the process of fundamental recovery, with both economic growth and revenue improving. Our basic assumption is that inflation will eventually stabilize between 2% and 3%, which will benefit value stocks more than growth stocks. Morgan Stanley Asset Management also favors value stocks. Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at the firm, said that people tend to hold inflation-sensitive stocks when the economy is stronger, and people may underestimate the duration of this cycle.</p><p>Slimmon points out that value stocks remain cheap relative to the broader market, and the phase of value stocks outperforming large-cap stocks will continue.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Growth VS. value: the biggest divide in the US stock market right now.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrowth VS. value: the biggest divide in the US stock market right now.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 21:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A battle is underway between growth stocks and value stocks. As we approach the middle of the year, the uncertainty surrounding US stocks is increasing, which has had a huge impact on the style of US stocks, and a battle between growth stocks and value stocks is underway.</p><p>In terms of uncertainty, on the one hand, U.S. monetary and fiscal support may decrease, which will weaken the current economic recovery and put pressure on corporate earnings growth. In addition, the U.S. government's plans to raise taxes are another potential deterrent.</p><p>On the other hand, inflation has become another major uncertainty affecting the performance of US stocks. If upward pressure on prices continues, resulting in higher rate hike expectations, US stocks may experience a bumpy road.</p><p>These uncertainties dominate the performance of growth and value stocks, and changes in inflation and monetary policy towards expectations will determine the style of US stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p>As previously mentioned by Wall Street Insights, since the beginning of this year, as US Treasury yields have risen rapidly and US stocks have rotated rapidly, the stock prices of tech giants that were enjoying great success during the pandemic have corrected sharply, while cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic recovery have rebounded collectively.</p><p>However, recently, as inflation expectations have cooled and US Treasury yields have declined, technology stocks have regained market favor, especially since the Federal Reserve hinted at an earlier-than-expected rate hike, which has intensified the rise in technology stocks.</p><p>Many analysts have sided with technology stocks, believing that after a correction, the valuations of American tech giants have begun to show attractiveness, which means that these tech leaders are expected to continue to rise.</p><p>Barclays strategist Maneesh Deshpande believes that U.S. tech stocks are currently relatively cheap. According to Barclays data, FANMAG currently has an average expected P/E of 29.9 times. This is only slightly higher than about 28 times before the pandemic began in December 2019, and a significant drop from the peak of 40 times in the middle of last year.</p><p>Jason Pride, Chief Investment Officer of Glenmede Private Wealth, believes that the rally in value stocks is not over yet, and value stocks will outperform technology stocks.</p><p>We are still in the process of fundamental recovery, with both economic growth and revenue improving. Our basic assumption is that inflation will eventually stabilize between 2% and 3%, which will benefit value stocks more than growth stocks. Morgan Stanley Asset Management also favors value stocks. Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager at the firm, said that people tend to hold inflation-sensitive stocks when the economy is stronger, and people may underestimate the duration of this cycle.</p><p>Slimmon points out that value stocks remain cheap relative to the broader market, and the phase of value stocks outperforming large-cap stocks will continue.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175717613","content_text":"一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n\n行至年中，笼罩的美股上方的不确定性越来越大，对美股风格也产生了巨大影响，一场成长股与价值股之间的角力正在展开。\n就不确定性而言，一方面，美国货币和财政支持可能会减少，这将削弱当前经济复苏的活力，并对企业盈利增长造成压力。此外美国政府酝酿提高税收的计划是另一个潜在的抑制因素。\n另一方面，通胀走势成为牵动美股走势的另一大不确定性，如果价格的上行压力持续，结果是加息预期上升，美股可能会经历一段坎坷之路。\n这些不确定性主宰着成长和价值股票走势，通胀和货币政策走向预期的变动将决定美股下半年的风格。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，今年初以来，随着美债收益率快速走高，美股快速轮动，疫情期间风光无限的科技巨头们股价大幅回调，而对经济复苏较为敏感的周期股集体反弹。\n但近期，随着通胀预期降温，美债收益率下行，科技股重获市场青睐，尤其是美联储暗示将早于预期加息以来，科技股涨势加剧。\n有不少分析师站队科技股，认为经过一番回调，目前美国科技巨头们的估值已经开始彰显吸引力，这意味着这些科技领头羊有望继续上涨。\n巴克莱策略师Maneesh Deshpande认为目前美国科技股相对便宜。巴克莱(Barclays)的数据显示，FANMAG目前的平均预期市盈率为29.9倍。这只比2019年12月大流行开始前的约28倍高一点点，比去年年中40倍的峰值大幅下降。\n格伦米德(Glenmede)私人财富首席投资官Jason Pride则认为，价值股的行情还未结束，价值股将跑赢科技股：\n\n 我们仍处于基本面复苏之中，经济增长和收入都有所提高。我们的基本假设是，通胀最终会稳定在2%至3%之间，这对价值股的益处将大于成长股。\n\n摩根士丹利资产管理公司也偏好价值股。该机构高级投资组合经理Andrew Slimmon表示，在经济形势更为强劲的时候，倾向于持有对通胀敏感的股票，而人们可能低估了这个周期的持续时间。\nSlimmon指出，相对于更广泛的市场，价值型股票仍然很便宜，价值股表现超大盘的阶段将持续下去。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":163920199,"gmtCreate":1623857241411,"gmtModify":1703821676844,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163920199","repostId":"1146756294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146756294","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623856744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146756294?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 23:19","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Some WSB concept stocks declined, with AMC Cinemas falling more than 10%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146756294","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月16日，部分WSB概念股下行，AMC院线跌超10%，黑莓跌超8%，游戏驿站、ContextLogic跌超4%。","content":"<p>On June 16, some WSB concept stocks declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It fell more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>It fell more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">contextual logic</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbeb078de2de6d1611ad66c88cca74b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some WSB concept stocks declined, with AMC Cinemas falling more than 10%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome WSB concept stocks declined, with AMC Cinemas falling more than 10%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 23:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 16, some WSB concept stocks declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>It fell more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>It fell more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">contextual logic</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbeb078de2de6d1611ad66c88cca74b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","BB":"黑莓"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146756294","content_text":"6月16日，部分WSB概念股下行，AMC院线跌超10%，黑莓跌超8%，游戏驿站、ContextLogic跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"BB":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114493047,"gmtCreate":1623084288689,"gmtModify":1704195816859,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tt","listText":"Tt","text":"Tt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114493047","repostId":"1122699136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122699136","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623079809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122699136?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Alzheimer's drugs for the first time in about 20 years.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122699136","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国食品药品管理局（FDA）批准Biogen的Aduhelm用于治疗阿尔茨海默症，但要求该公司在获批之后继续实施临床试验。FDA表示，Biogen的试验数据高度复杂，存在不确定性。Cassava Sc","content":"<p>The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Biogen's Aduhelm for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, but required the company to continue clinical trials after approval. The FDA said that Biogen's trial data is highly complex and uncertain. Cassava Sciences (SAVA) maintained a gain of about 11%, once recording a new intraday high of $75.09 since February 4. At that time, the company announced positive progress in Alzheimer's treatment research, and the results supported the drug Simufilam Phase 3 clinical trials.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9396c36caa0a2212aa822afde50909f7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Eli Lilly rose more than 11%, hitting an all-time high of $227. Eli Lilly is also developing Donanemab, a drug in the same track. The company's Alzheimer's trial drug data published in the New England Journal of Medicine in mid-March showed that its drug prospects were good, but not as encouraging as investors had hoped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/592bbd2acb646bd314dcc9178bac7142\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Alzheimer's drugs for the first time in about 20 years.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Alzheimer's drugs for the first time in about 20 years.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 23:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Biogen's Aduhelm for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, but required the company to continue clinical trials after approval. The FDA said that Biogen's trial data is highly complex and uncertain. Cassava Sciences (SAVA) maintained a gain of about 11%, once recording a new intraday high of $75.09 since February 4. At that time, the company announced positive progress in Alzheimer's treatment research, and the results supported the drug Simufilam Phase 3 clinical trials.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9396c36caa0a2212aa822afde50909f7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Eli Lilly rose more than 11%, hitting an all-time high of $227. Eli Lilly is also developing Donanemab, a drug in the same track. The company's Alzheimer's trial drug data published in the New England Journal of Medicine in mid-March showed that its drug prospects were good, but not as encouraging as investors had hoped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/592bbd2acb646bd314dcc9178bac7142\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85675909dc6c67ee0181339c18bcfdff","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122699136","content_text":"美国食品药品管理局（FDA）批准Biogen的Aduhelm用于治疗阿尔茨海默症，但要求该公司在获批之后继续实施临床试验。FDA表示，Biogen的试验数据高度复杂，存在不确定性。Cassava Sciences（SAVA）维持大约11%的涨幅，一度以75.09美元录得2月4日以来盘中新高，该公司当时宣布老年痴呆症疗法研究取得积极进展，研究结果支持对药品Simufilam进行第三阶段临床试验。礼来制药涨超11%，刷新盘中历史高位至227美元；礼来同样在开发相同赛道药物多纳单抗(Donanemab)。该公司3月中旬在《新英格兰医学杂志》刊发的阿尔茨海默症试验药品数据显示，其药品前景不错，但并没有投资者所期望的那么喜人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9,"SAVA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112152848,"gmtCreate":1622857255084,"gmtModify":1704192499937,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tsl","listText":"tsl","text":"tsl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112152848","repostId":"1172689661","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172689661","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622853490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172689661?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will the next Tesla come from China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172689661","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"汽车行业的历史上，其实从来就不缺失败者的身影。比如，在20世纪10年代，美国的汽车企业数量多达250家左右，而到了20世纪结束的时候，真正有分量的玩家就只剩下了3家，福特、通用汽车和克莱斯勒。最近几年","content":"<p>Throughout the history of the automotive industry, there has never been a shortage of losers. For example, in the 1910s, there were as many as 250 automakers in the United States, but by the end of the 20th century, only three truly significant players remained: Ford,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>And Chrysler. In recent years, an electric vehicle boom that originated in the United States has gradually developed and spread globally.</p><p>Aiways Automobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles, WM Motor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Chinese startups are already producing their own products in their thousands. In Europe, Croatia's Rimac and Spain's Hispano Suiza are manufacturing superelectric sports cars, while the UK's...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">Arrival</a>Then they are producing electric trains. American companies such as Canoo, Fisker, Lordstown, Lucid and Rivian also hope to achieve mass production quickly. Foxconn in Taiwan has always been...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Well-known for their contract manufacturing capabilities, they will soon be assembling electric vehicles for other car manufacturers. As for Apple, their next flagship product, which is about to be released, is the so-called iCar.</p><p>Now, most<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Electric vehicle companies are all operating at a loss, with some even failing to generate revenue. However, everyone has already seen the general trend of the battery-driven industry and hopes to get a share of the pie in the future. Every company is full of ambition, wanting to become the next<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>—This industry pioneer has successfully used batteries and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Software replaced the internal combustion engine. After a short period of development, Elon Musk's company has become the world's leading automaker by market capitalization, with a net worth equivalent to more than the combined total of the world's three largest automakers.</p><p>Engel Bert Wimmer of consulting firm e&Co admitted that Tesla's nearly $600 billion market capitalization has become a \"torch guiding the way.\" Now, investors are looking for the next potential target. In 2018, Nio entered the New York market, and last year, XPeng and Li Auto also made their debut. The net worth of these three startups is now comparable to, or even exceeds, that of many well-known established automakers. Some U.S. electric vehicle startups have gone public indirectly through special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), often amassing billions or tens of billions in net worth.</p><p>Investment bank Lincoln International<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTZ\">hertz</a>(Patrick von Herz) characterized the current situation as a \"global frenzy\". He Xiaopeng, founder of XPeng, estimates that the market will expand to about 300 players, and once the dust settles, only about 10 will remain. So how can these numerous challengers avoid being ultimately forgotten?</p><p>To survive, the most basic blueprint consists of three major elements. First, they must find a suitable positioning as a starting point for their expansion. Then, they need to actually achieve mass production of cars. Finally, they must establish their own sales and distribution networks. Most players fail on the first or second step. Ironically, the players currently most likely to replicate Tesla's success may be those who look nothing like Tesla.</p><p>First, you need to find your suitable battlefield, and in this regard, geographical location is undoubtedly very important, such as investment banking.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jeffrey</a>Philip Houchois believes that the next Tesla will come from China. Chinese consumers are extremely interested in new technologies, and the government continues to support the development of vehicle electrification, which gives Chinese challengers a very favorable starting point.</p><p>The largest Chinese player is currently Nio, which produced 44,000 cars in 2020 and has a market capitalization of approximately $69 billion. XPeng and Li Auto have market capitalizations of only $28 billion and $22 billion respectively, which looks quite attractive. These companies were able to easily obtain financing support, enabling them to roll out their domestic and overseas expansion plans smoothly. XPeng has already begun selling its products in Norway, Europe's most popular electric vehicle market, and NIO will soon enter this market as well.</p><p>While geographical factors are important, finding your suitable market segment is even more important. Tesla is not the first company in the world to produce electric vehicles, but they were the first to produce large and expensive electric vehicles. Only in this way can the high battery costs be absorbed into the sales price. Many startups are also targeting the high-priced SUV and four-door sedan markets, where profit margins are highest.</p><p>However, competitive pressure from established players, such as Volkswagen's Audi and Porsche, as well as Mercedes, is becoming increasingly prominent. In April, China, aspiring to become a world-class enterprise...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a>They also released a high-priced electric vehicle, the Zeekr. Along with General Motors and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Now that they are also embracing the electrification wave, this market is destined to become increasingly crowded.</p><p>In this context, other car model markets that have not yet been deeply penetrated by these players may be a good entry point for latecomers. For example, driven by the rapid development of e-commerce during the pandemic, the demand for light commercial vehicles has become increasingly strong. Alastair Hayfield of consulting firm Interact Analysis points out that delivery vehicles are currently \"not yet Tesla-like.\" The manufacturers of these vehicles are currently simply mechanically converting internal combustion engines to electric power based on existing models, which directly affects performance and makes customers deeply unhappy. This leaves opportunities for companies like Arrival and Rivian.</p><p>Another potential niche market worth paying attention to is supercars. Those wealthy people are perfectly happy to spend $2 million to add another new product to their garage. Croatia's Rimac and Italy's Pininfarina have both used this model as a testing ground, where they can sell the technology they have tested and matured to other automakers. China's Silk EV is considering using the Hongqi S9 as a bridgehead to enter the mass market.</p><p>However, simply finding a suitable market entry point is not enough. XPeng President Gu Hongdi acknowledged that new players in the market must come up with something truly different. CEO Peter Rawlinson admitted that for many years the industry has been filled with players who were only mediocre in terms of technology, and people \"didn't realize that this was actually a technology race.\" As cars become more and more like personal electronic devices, to achieve industry leadership, a company must first be a technology company and then a car manufacturer. Foxconn Chairman Liu Yangwei also stated that in the future, the driving experience will be \"software-driven and software-defined\".</p><p>Pedro Pacheco of consulting firm Gartner emphasized that for investors, a company's eye-catching intellectual property will be a \"beautiful business card.\" However, like many Chinese Tesla imitators, simply placing a huge touchscreen in an electric vehicle is far from enough. Tesla has established clear entry barriers—including wireless software upgrades, proprietary charging networks, and direct online sales.</p><p>Therefore, newcomers must find a way to leave their own technical mark on the industry. Lucid's engineers have pushed the range of their batteries all the way to 832 kilometers. For Chinese consumers without home charging facilities, Nio offers a three-minute battery replacement service. XPeng claims that their voice interaction system is the best in the industry. Fisker and Canoo, on the other hand, place greater emphasis on the right to use cars rather than ownership, and launched product subscription services based on this concept.</p><p>Only consumers can provide the final answer to what people really need from all of the above, and what is just a sales tactic. However, obtaining this answer will obviously take time and will have to wait until after the new model is produced and sold. Producing thousands of cars a year is already a difficult enough challenge for these new players, and it is all too easy to incur huge losses in the process. For them, achieving truly large-scale mass production and generating relative profits is currently a completely different matter. Even Tesla almost fell into \"production hell\" back then.</p><p>No matter how impressive the advantages of software are, it still requires tangible support from the production line. From this perspective, as a research report by brokerage firm Bernstein points out, producing an electric car is not fundamentally different from producing a traditional internal combustion engine car, and the cost is even higher. A newly built car factory capable of producing 100,000 electric vehicles annually would require an investment of at least $1 billion.</p><p>To circumvent this hurdle, some challengers have chosen to renovate existing factories. For example, Tesla acquired an abandoned car factory in Fremont, California, at a low price. Rivian moved into a former Mitsubishi factory in Illinois. Other players have adopted a partnership model with established automakers, with the latter helping to solve complex supply chain problems. Chinese<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Huawei cooperates with Geely, while Huawei cooperates with BAIC, Changan, and GAC.</p><p>Both Fisker and Nio have adopted asset-light structures, outsourcing manufacturing to contract manufacturers for major automakers.</p><p>Arrival's approach is perhaps the most innovative. While Tesla and other players are pursuing grandeur, this British company is moving towards the micro. Unlike passenger cars, commercial vehicles have few requirements in terms of style or customization, so they don't have to go to great lengths to arrange dedicated production lines for battery panels. Therefore, they only needed to spend $40 million to $50 million to acquire and modify smaller factories, bringing annual production to 10,000 units and scaling up quickly with low risk.</p><p>The final and crucial hurdle for electric vehicle products is the consumer. Most new electric vehicle players have chosen Tesla's online direct sales and showroom model, bypassing the traditional dealer network. However, they still need at least a complete service network. This type of network is also expensive, and scaling up is no less difficult than manufacturing. Gartner's Pacheco points out that even Tesla is still developing in this area. For example, in the United States, the three traditional giants in Detroit have nearly 10,000 dealerships, which also provide services, while Tesla has only about 135 service providers.</p><p>Many new companies don't even reach this level. Due to this restriction, some players have now experienced setbacks. Dyson, a British company known for its vacuum cleaners, once invested £500 million (approximately $640 million) in an attempt to enter the electric vehicle market. However, in 2019, the company discovered that the business was likely to never be profitable, and they had to close down. In the same year, Nio almost slipped into bankruptcy if it hadn't received a bailout from Hefei's local government. China's numerous and varied smaller electric vehicle companies will likely experience a bloodbath once their ideas and money run out. Fisker itself is a product of a rebirth; the company experienced bankruptcy in 2013.</p><p>As the complexity of automobile production becomes increasingly apparent, investors are finding it harder to buy into the hype. Lordstown's stock price has fallen by as much as 65% since its peak in February after lowering its pickup truck production forecast and acknowledging the need for new funding. Canoo's stock price has fallen to only half of what it was when it went public last December due to increasing skepticism about its development plans.</p><p>Aaka Sharora of consulting firm BCG pointed out in a very general way that these new companies must be able to create their own brands, and so far, only Tesla has truly made its brand deeply ingrained in people's hearts. It often takes years to truly build a reliable brand image, but these new players are burning through money at an astonishing rate.</p><p>In short, to enter this field, a truly qualified new player must have a prestigious reputation, strong financial resources, and proven technological strength, and there is only one company that meets all these requirements: Apple. iPhone manufacturers have actually been working on electric vehicle research for quite some years. The latest claims are that their products will be available around 2025. By then, some potential competitors may have long been forgotten by the world.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the next Tesla come from China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the next Tesla come from China?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Throughout the history of the automotive industry, there has never been a shortage of losers. For example, in the 1910s, there were as many as 250 automakers in the United States, but by the end of the 20th century, only three truly significant players remained: Ford,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>And Chrysler. In recent years, an electric vehicle boom that originated in the United States has gradually developed and spread globally.</p><p>Aiways Automobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles, WM Motor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Chinese startups are already producing their own products in their thousands. In Europe, Croatia's Rimac and Spain's Hispano Suiza are manufacturing superelectric sports cars, while the UK's...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARVL\">Arrival</a>Then they are producing electric trains. American companies such as Canoo, Fisker, Lordstown, Lucid and Rivian also hope to achieve mass production quickly. Foxconn in Taiwan has always been...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Well-known for their contract manufacturing capabilities, they will soon be assembling electric vehicles for other car manufacturers. As for Apple, their next flagship product, which is about to be released, is the so-called iCar.</p><p>Now, most<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Electric vehicle companies are all operating at a loss, with some even failing to generate revenue. However, everyone has already seen the general trend of the battery-driven industry and hopes to get a share of the pie in the future. Every company is full of ambition, wanting to become the next<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>—This industry pioneer has successfully used batteries and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Software replaced the internal combustion engine. After a short period of development, Elon Musk's company has become the world's leading automaker by market capitalization, with a net worth equivalent to more than the combined total of the world's three largest automakers.</p><p>Engel Bert Wimmer of consulting firm e&Co admitted that Tesla's nearly $600 billion market capitalization has become a \"torch guiding the way.\" Now, investors are looking for the next potential target. In 2018, Nio entered the New York market, and last year, XPeng and Li Auto also made their debut. The net worth of these three startups is now comparable to, or even exceeds, that of many well-known established automakers. Some U.S. electric vehicle startups have gone public indirectly through special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), often amassing billions or tens of billions in net worth.</p><p>Investment bank Lincoln International<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTZ\">hertz</a>(Patrick von Herz) characterized the current situation as a \"global frenzy\". He Xiaopeng, founder of XPeng, estimates that the market will expand to about 300 players, and once the dust settles, only about 10 will remain. So how can these numerous challengers avoid being ultimately forgotten?</p><p>To survive, the most basic blueprint consists of three major elements. First, they must find a suitable positioning as a starting point for their expansion. Then, they need to actually achieve mass production of cars. Finally, they must establish their own sales and distribution networks. Most players fail on the first or second step. Ironically, the players currently most likely to replicate Tesla's success may be those who look nothing like Tesla.</p><p>First, you need to find your suitable battlefield, and in this regard, geographical location is undoubtedly very important, such as investment banking.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jeffrey</a>Philip Houchois believes that the next Tesla will come from China. Chinese consumers are extremely interested in new technologies, and the government continues to support the development of vehicle electrification, which gives Chinese challengers a very favorable starting point.</p><p>The largest Chinese player is currently Nio, which produced 44,000 cars in 2020 and has a market capitalization of approximately $69 billion. XPeng and Li Auto have market capitalizations of only $28 billion and $22 billion respectively, which looks quite attractive. These companies were able to easily obtain financing support, enabling them to roll out their domestic and overseas expansion plans smoothly. XPeng has already begun selling its products in Norway, Europe's most popular electric vehicle market, and NIO will soon enter this market as well.</p><p>While geographical factors are important, finding your suitable market segment is even more important. Tesla is not the first company in the world to produce electric vehicles, but they were the first to produce large and expensive electric vehicles. Only in this way can the high battery costs be absorbed into the sales price. Many startups are also targeting the high-priced SUV and four-door sedan markets, where profit margins are highest.</p><p>However, competitive pressure from established players, such as Volkswagen's Audi and Porsche, as well as Mercedes, is becoming increasingly prominent. In April, China, aspiring to become a world-class enterprise...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a>They also released a high-priced electric vehicle, the Zeekr. Along with General Motors and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Now that they are also embracing the electrification wave, this market is destined to become increasingly crowded.</p><p>In this context, other car model markets that have not yet been deeply penetrated by these players may be a good entry point for latecomers. For example, driven by the rapid development of e-commerce during the pandemic, the demand for light commercial vehicles has become increasingly strong. Alastair Hayfield of consulting firm Interact Analysis points out that delivery vehicles are currently \"not yet Tesla-like.\" The manufacturers of these vehicles are currently simply mechanically converting internal combustion engines to electric power based on existing models, which directly affects performance and makes customers deeply unhappy. This leaves opportunities for companies like Arrival and Rivian.</p><p>Another potential niche market worth paying attention to is supercars. Those wealthy people are perfectly happy to spend $2 million to add another new product to their garage. Croatia's Rimac and Italy's Pininfarina have both used this model as a testing ground, where they can sell the technology they have tested and matured to other automakers. China's Silk EV is considering using the Hongqi S9 as a bridgehead to enter the mass market.</p><p>However, simply finding a suitable market entry point is not enough. XPeng President Gu Hongdi acknowledged that new players in the market must come up with something truly different. CEO Peter Rawlinson admitted that for many years the industry has been filled with players who were only mediocre in terms of technology, and people \"didn't realize that this was actually a technology race.\" As cars become more and more like personal electronic devices, to achieve industry leadership, a company must first be a technology company and then a car manufacturer. Foxconn Chairman Liu Yangwei also stated that in the future, the driving experience will be \"software-driven and software-defined\".</p><p>Pedro Pacheco of consulting firm Gartner emphasized that for investors, a company's eye-catching intellectual property will be a \"beautiful business card.\" However, like many Chinese Tesla imitators, simply placing a huge touchscreen in an electric vehicle is far from enough. Tesla has established clear entry barriers—including wireless software upgrades, proprietary charging networks, and direct online sales.</p><p>Therefore, newcomers must find a way to leave their own technical mark on the industry. Lucid's engineers have pushed the range of their batteries all the way to 832 kilometers. For Chinese consumers without home charging facilities, Nio offers a three-minute battery replacement service. XPeng claims that their voice interaction system is the best in the industry. Fisker and Canoo, on the other hand, place greater emphasis on the right to use cars rather than ownership, and launched product subscription services based on this concept.</p><p>Only consumers can provide the final answer to what people really need from all of the above, and what is just a sales tactic. However, obtaining this answer will obviously take time and will have to wait until after the new model is produced and sold. Producing thousands of cars a year is already a difficult enough challenge for these new players, and it is all too easy to incur huge losses in the process. For them, achieving truly large-scale mass production and generating relative profits is currently a completely different matter. Even Tesla almost fell into \"production hell\" back then.</p><p>No matter how impressive the advantages of software are, it still requires tangible support from the production line. From this perspective, as a research report by brokerage firm Bernstein points out, producing an electric car is not fundamentally different from producing a traditional internal combustion engine car, and the cost is even higher. A newly built car factory capable of producing 100,000 electric vehicles annually would require an investment of at least $1 billion.</p><p>To circumvent this hurdle, some challengers have chosen to renovate existing factories. For example, Tesla acquired an abandoned car factory in Fremont, California, at a low price. Rivian moved into a former Mitsubishi factory in Illinois. Other players have adopted a partnership model with established automakers, with the latter helping to solve complex supply chain problems. Chinese<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Huawei cooperates with Geely, while Huawei cooperates with BAIC, Changan, and GAC.</p><p>Both Fisker and Nio have adopted asset-light structures, outsourcing manufacturing to contract manufacturers for major automakers.</p><p>Arrival's approach is perhaps the most innovative. While Tesla and other players are pursuing grandeur, this British company is moving towards the micro. Unlike passenger cars, commercial vehicles have few requirements in terms of style or customization, so they don't have to go to great lengths to arrange dedicated production lines for battery panels. Therefore, they only needed to spend $40 million to $50 million to acquire and modify smaller factories, bringing annual production to 10,000 units and scaling up quickly with low risk.</p><p>The final and crucial hurdle for electric vehicle products is the consumer. Most new electric vehicle players have chosen Tesla's online direct sales and showroom model, bypassing the traditional dealer network. However, they still need at least a complete service network. This type of network is also expensive, and scaling up is no less difficult than manufacturing. Gartner's Pacheco points out that even Tesla is still developing in this area. For example, in the United States, the three traditional giants in Detroit have nearly 10,000 dealerships, which also provide services, while Tesla has only about 135 service providers.</p><p>Many new companies don't even reach this level. Due to this restriction, some players have now experienced setbacks. Dyson, a British company known for its vacuum cleaners, once invested £500 million (approximately $640 million) in an attempt to enter the electric vehicle market. However, in 2019, the company discovered that the business was likely to never be profitable, and they had to close down. In the same year, Nio almost slipped into bankruptcy if it hadn't received a bailout from Hefei's local government. China's numerous and varied smaller electric vehicle companies will likely experience a bloodbath once their ideas and money run out. Fisker itself is a product of a rebirth; the company experienced bankruptcy in 2013.</p><p>As the complexity of automobile production becomes increasingly apparent, investors are finding it harder to buy into the hype. Lordstown's stock price has fallen by as much as 65% since its peak in February after lowering its pickup truck production forecast and acknowledging the need for new funding. Canoo's stock price has fallen to only half of what it was when it went public last December due to increasing skepticism about its development plans.</p><p>Aaka Sharora of consulting firm BCG pointed out in a very general way that these new companies must be able to create their own brands, and so far, only Tesla has truly made its brand deeply ingrained in people's hearts. It often takes years to truly build a reliable brand image, but these new players are burning through money at an astonishing rate.</p><p>In short, to enter this field, a truly qualified new player must have a prestigious reputation, strong financial resources, and proven technological strength, and there is only one company that meets all these requirements: Apple. iPhone manufacturers have actually been working on electric vehicle research for quite some years. The latest claims are that their products will be available around 2025. By then, some potential competitors may have long been forgotten by the world.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mtjAo9IgXqPVEUFUEuDbJA\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8541380317eba7ef07da7c529e879c07","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mtjAo9IgXqPVEUFUEuDbJA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172689661","content_text":"汽车行业的历史上，其实从来就不缺失败者的身影。比如，在20世纪10年代，美国的汽车企业数量多达250家左右，而到了20世纪结束的时候，真正有分量的玩家就只剩下了3家，福特、通用汽车和克莱斯勒。最近几年，一场起源于美国的电动汽车大繁荣又逐渐发展起来，覆盖全球。\n爱驰汽车、理想汽车、蔚来汽车、威马汽车、小鹏汽车，中国的初创玩家已经在数以千计地生产自己的产品。在欧洲，克罗地亚的Rimac和西班牙的Hispano Suiza正在制造超级电动跑车，而英国的Arrival则在生产电动火车。美国企业如Canoo、Fisker、Lordstown、Lucid和Rivian也都希望能够迅速达成量产。中国台湾的富士康向来以苹果代工商而知名，他们很快也要为其他品牌车厂组装电动汽车了。至于苹果，他们呼之欲出的下一款王牌产品，正是所谓iCar。\n现在，大多数的新生电动汽车企业都处在亏损当中，其中一些甚至连营收都未能获得。不过，大家都已经看清了电池驱动的行业大势，希望在未来能够分得一杯羹。每一家公司都满怀雄心壮志，想要成为下一个特斯拉——这家业界先锋已经成功地使用电池和智能软件取代了内燃机。在经历了短短的发展历程之后，马斯克（Elon Musk）的公司已经成为了世界上市值首屈一指的汽车企业，其身家相当于后面三家全球最大车厂的总和还多。\n咨询公司e&Co的魏玛（EngelbertWimmer）坦言，特斯拉接近6000亿美元的市值已经成为了“指引道路的火炬”。现在，投资者都在寻找下一个潜在的目标。2018年，蔚来登陆纽约市场，而去年，小鹏和理想也相继亮相。这三家初创公司的身家，现在都与许多知名老牌车厂相当，甚至犹有过之。一些美国电动汽车初创企业则利用特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的渠道曲线上市，也获得了动辄以十亿百亿计的身家。\n投资银行LincolnInternational的赫兹（Patrick von Herz）将现在的局面定性为“全球性狂热”。小鹏汽车的创始人何小鹏估计，这个市场将会膨胀到大约有300个玩家，而等到尘埃落定之后，将只剩下大约10家。那么，这为数众多的挑战者该如何避免最终被遗忘的命运呢？\n想要生存下去，最基本的蓝图包含三大要素。首先，他们必须找到适合作为自己扩张出发点的定位。然后，他们需要真正实现汽车的量产。最后，他们必须建立自己的销售和分销网络。大多数玩家往往在第一步，或者是第二步就宣告失败了。具有讽刺意味的是，那些目前真正最有可能复制特斯拉成功的玩家，或许正是那些看上去一点都不像特斯拉的玩家。\n首先要找到自己合适的战场，而在这方面，地理位置无疑非常重要，比如投行杰富瑞的霍乔斯（PhilippHouchois）就认为，下一个特斯拉将来自中国。中国消费者对新技术极有兴趣，而政府也持续支持汽车电动化的发展，这就给了中国挑战者一个很有利的起点。\n中国玩家当中目前体量最大的是蔚来，2020年生产汽车4.4万部，公司市值大约690亿美元。小鹏和理想的市值分别只有280亿和220亿美元，看上去也颇有吸引力。这些公司都能够轻松获得融资支持，使得他们的本土和海外扩张计划都能够顺利铺开。小鹏已经开始在欧洲消费者最热心的电动汽车市场挪威销售自己的产品，而蔚来很快也将进入这一市场。\n地理因素固然重要，但是找到自己合适的细分市场甚至更加重要。特斯拉并不是世界上第一家生产电动汽车的企业，但是他们却是第一家生产大型和高价电动车型的企业，也只有如此，高昂的电池成本才能被吸纳到销售价格当中去。许多初创企业也都瞄准了高价SUV和四门轿车市场，那里的利润率是最高的。\n不过，来自那些老牌玩家的竞争压力也日益凸显出来，比如大众旗下的奥迪和保时捷，还有梅赛德斯等。4月间，志在成为世界级企业的中国吉利汽车也发布了高价电动车型极氪（Zeekr）。伴随通用汽车和福特汽车现在也开始投身电动化大潮，这个市场注定将变得越来越拥挤。\n在这种情况下，其他尚未被这些玩家深度渗透的车型市场，也许会是后来者一个不错的切入点。比如，在疫情期间电子商务大发展的推动下，轻型商用车的需求日益旺盛。咨询公司Interact Analysis的黑费尔德（Alastair Hayfield）指出，送货车辆目前“尚未特斯拉化”。这些车辆的制造商现在还只是机械地在既有车型基础上将内燃机改为电动供能，而这直接影响了性能，让客户深感不快。这就为Arrival和Rivian等公司留下了机会。\n另外一个值得关注的潜在利基市场是超级跑车。那些大富豪们完全乐意花200万美元，给自己的车库再增添一款新品。克罗地亚的Rimac和意大利的Pininfarina都将这车型当作了一个试验场，他们可以将在这里测试成熟的技术卖给其他车厂。中国的丝尔科（Silk EV）正在考虑将红旗S9作为进军大众市场的桥头堡。\n不过，单单找到了合适的市场切入点还是不够的。小鹏总裁顾宏地承认，市场上的新玩家必须拿出一点真正与众不同的东西来。首席执行官劳林森（Peter Rawlinson）坦言，多年以来，这个行业都充斥着技术层面只能算是平庸的玩家，大家“并没有意识到，这其实是一场技术竞赛”。伴随汽车变得越来越像是个人电子设备，要获得行业领先地位，一家企业必须首先是科技公司，然后才是汽车厂商。富士康董事长刘扬伟也表示，在未来，驾乘体验将是“由软件驱动，由软件定义”的。\n咨询公司Gartner的帕切科（PedroPacheco）强调，对于投资者而言，企业令人眼前一亮的知识产权将是一张“漂亮的名片”。不过，像许多中国的特斯拉效仿者那样，只是将一块巨大的触屏放在电动汽车里，还是远远不够的。特斯拉已经建立了明确的准入门槛——软件无线升级，专有充电网络，线上直接销售等。\n因此，新来者必须想办法在行业身上留下属于自己的技术印记。Lucid的工程师们已经将他们电池的续航能力一路推到了832公里。针对没有家庭充电条件的中国消费者，蔚来提供了三分钟电池更换服务。小鹏宣称，他们的语音互动系统是全行业第一的。Fisker和Canoo则更加强调汽车的使用权而非所有权，基于这一理念推出了产品订阅服务。\n到底上面所有这一切，哪些是人们真正需要的，而哪些只是销售技俩，只有消费者才能给出最终的答案。不过，得到这一答案显然需要时间，必须等到新车型生产和销售之后。要每年生产几千部汽车，对于这些新玩家就已经是足够难的挑战了，而在这过程当中大量亏损，却是再容易不过的。要真正大规模量产，并获得相对的利润，对他们而言，目前还完全是另外一个次元的事情。就连特斯拉，当初也曾经差点坠入“生产地狱”。\n不管软件的优势多么华丽，都需要生产线的实实在在的支持。从这个角度来说，正如券商伯恩斯坦的研究报告所指出的，生产一部电动汽车与生产一部传统的内燃机汽车并没有什么本质的不同，而且成本还犹有过之。一家全新建设的，能够年产10万部电动汽车的车厂，至少也需要10亿美元的投入。\n为了绕过这个难关，一些挑战者选择了改造既有的工厂，比如特斯拉就低价收购了加州弗里蒙特一家废弃的车厂。Rivian迁入了伊利诺伊州一家曾经的三菱工厂。其他一些玩家采用与老牌车企合作的模式，由后者帮助解决复杂的供应链问题。中国的百度与吉利合作，华为与北汽、长安、广汽合作。\nFisker和蔚来都采用了轻资产架构，将制造外包给大车厂的合约制造商。\nArrival的方法或许算得上是最有创新精神的。在特斯拉和其他玩家追求宏大的时候，这家英国公司却走向了微观。商用车不同于乘用车，在时尚或者定制化方面没有什么要求，这样他们就不必在电池板上大费周章，去安排专门的生产线。于是，他们只需要花4000万到5000万美元就可以收购和改装较小的工厂，让年产量达到1万部，以较低的风险迅速上规模。\n电动汽车产品面前最后的一个重要关口就是消费者。新的电动汽车玩家大多数都选择了特斯拉的线上直销加展示厅模式，绕开了传统的经销商网络。可是，他们至少依然需要完备的服务网络。这种网络同样成本不菲，而且要上规模，难度一点也不小于制造环节。Gartner的帕切科指出，即便特斯拉，在这个方面目前也依然是在发展当中。比如在美国，底特律三大传统巨头拥有近1万家经销商，后者同时也提供服务，而特斯拉的服务商只有大约135家。\n许多新公司甚至连这个水平也达不到。由于这方面的限制，一些玩家现在已经遭到了挫折。以真空吸尘器闻名的英国公司戴森一度投资5亿英镑（约合6.4亿美元），想要进军电动汽车市场，但是在2019年，该公司发现，这业务很可能永远也无法赚钱，他们不得不曹操收场。同一年，蔚来若不是得到了合肥地方政府的救援，也差点滑向破产。中国那为数众多、林林总总的较小的电动汽车公司，当他们的点子和金钱耗尽后，大概率也要经历一轮血洗。Fisker本身就是浴火重生的产物，该公司2013年就有过一次破产的经历。\n伴随汽车生产的复杂性变得越来越清晰，投资者也越来越不容易买炒作的账令人。因为调降了皮卡生产预期，并承认需要新的资金以来，Lordstown的股价自从2月峰值已经下跌了65%之多。Canoo则由于其发展计划受到越来越强烈的质疑，股价只剩下了去年12月上市时的一半。\n咨询公司BCG的阿罗拉（AakashArora）高度概括地指出，这些新公司必须能够创建自己的品牌，而到目前为止，真正让自己的品牌深入人心的，依然只有特斯拉一家。要真正建立一个可靠的品牌形象，往往需要多年的时间，但是这些新玩家的烧钱速度却快得惊人。\n总而言之，要进入这个领域，一个真正合格的新玩家必须具备响亮的名头，强大的财力，以及业已被证明的科技实力，而符合全部这些要求的公司其实只有一个，那就是苹果。iPhone制造商致力于电动汽车研究其实也颇有些年头了。目前最新的说法是，他们的产品将在2025年前后面市。到那时，一些潜在的竞争对手也许早已被世界遗忘了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176835419,"gmtCreate":1626875666731,"gmtModify":1703479738588,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176835419","repostId":"1131487400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131487400","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626875025,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131487400?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 21:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131487400","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","content":"<p>On July 21, the US lithium battery sector strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chilean mining and chemical industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle, Inc.</a>Lithium Americas Both rose by more than 3%. Bank of America states that the global supply of electric vehicle batteries could run out as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Unusual Movement] US lithium battery stocks strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 21, the US lithium battery sector strengthened, with Livent rising over 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQM\">Chilean mining and chemical industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle, Inc.</a>Lithium Americas Both rose by more than 3%. Bank of America states that the global supply of electric vehicle batteries could run out as early as 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d5fff270b9eb92b913298b1d8f590c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"LTHM":"Livent Corp.","SQM":"智利矿业化工","ALB":"美国雅保"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131487400","content_text":"7月21日，美股锂电池板块走强，Livent涨超7%，智利矿业化工、美国雅宝公司、Lithium Americas均涨超3%。美银称全球电动汽车电池最早可能在2025年断供。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALB":0.9,"LTHM":0.9,"SQM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185755228,"gmtCreate":1623675334064,"gmtModify":1704208347031,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Www","listText":"Www","text":"Www","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185755228","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168592268,"gmtCreate":1623978116854,"gmtModify":1703825208891,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168592268","repostId":"2144072822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182583180,"gmtCreate":1623588910140,"gmtModify":1704206667368,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182583180","repostId":"1159028389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898004140,"gmtCreate":1628439126180,"gmtModify":1703506248009,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/898004140","repostId":"1182934919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802032683,"gmtCreate":1627698306642,"gmtModify":1703494881099,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802032683","repostId":"1154964430","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801344443,"gmtCreate":1627484955582,"gmtModify":1703490960865,"author":{"id":"3555497604132927","authorId":"3555497604132927","name":"y大成","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b97d814f3ef1f69dc6b55b9de20e7a45","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555497604132927","idStr":"3555497604132927"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801344443","repostId":"1169023385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}