高明兴_8399 personal page - To The Moon

高明兴_8399

高明兴_8399

No personal profile

668Follow

27Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2024-10-20

$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$

2022-02-21

ok

What do all the Federal Reserve rate hike look like?

2022-02-19

ok

Last night and this morning | The situation between Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market! U.S. stocks lose two weeks in a row

2022-02-17

Ok

"Inflation" was mentioned 73 times! Read the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting in one article

2022-02-16

ok

One Picture to Understand | Q4 Position Changes of Top 10 Institutions

2022-02-14

ok

CICC: Fed tightening, menacing this time

2022-02-12

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-10

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-06

ok

CITIC Securities: Joy and Worry of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday

2022-02-01

ok

Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday

2022-01-20

Ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-01-19

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-01-14

ok

Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for a day on Jan. 17, Martin Luther King Jr. Day

2022-01-13

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-01-09

Ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-01-03

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-01-02

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-12-30

ok

Global central banks will fight inflation in 2021 and be busy "collecting water" in 2022

2021-12-26

ok

Learn from history! U.S. stocks may face two major risks in 2022

2021-12-25

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3557375403451824","uuid":"3557375403451824","gmtCreate":1596271410310,"gmtModify":1604231705124,"name":"高明兴_8399","pinyin":"gmx8399gaomingxing8399","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":27,"headSize":668,"tweetSize":432,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.01.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.12","exceedPercentage":"93.06%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.88%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":362025853567168,"gmtCreate":1729405093014,"gmtModify":1729405095491,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US91282CJE21.BOND\">$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US91282CJE21.BOND\">$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362025853567168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097671635,"gmtCreate":1645456247855,"gmtModify":1676534029463,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097671635","repostId":"2213609052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213609052","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645423509,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213609052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 14:05","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"What do all the Federal Reserve rate hike look like?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213609052","media":"文涛宏观债券研究","summary":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>rate hike and shrinking of the Federal Reserve are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and they are also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We launched a series of Fed tightening reports, which systematically combed the previous tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of previous rate hike.</b>The Fed has had a total of six rate hike cycles in the past four decades, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles are rich in types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressure, bubble pressure caused by real estate and stocks, and normalization process after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The shock of oil supply superimposed policy objectives are vague, and the United States has entered a stagflationary a vicious circle. After Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he took inflation control as his core goal and implemented a tough austerity policy. In the early 1980s, he strictly controlled monetary increment, and then turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become the policy goal of the Federal Reserve, and Taylor's rule has been gradually introduced, which has clarified the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation went up, and the Fed responded through the rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>The recession rebounded quickly, and the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the pace of the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, and the bond market turbulently. During this period, the Fed began to increase the guidance of inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia Finance</a>Affected by the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its monetary policy easing policy and began a rate hike, which was followed by the bursting of the Internet bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates as the stock market plunged to trigger a recession. Since then, the economic recovery and rising house prices have triggered fears of asset bubbles, and the Fed has once again started the rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>After the long-term zero interest rate and QE policy, the Federal Reserve began the process of monetary policy normalization. In the early stage, the rhythm of rate hike was cautious, and in the later stage, it was obviously accelerated or even radical. The degree of hawkishness greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Characteristics such as supply shock, soaring prices, overheating demand and policy normalization all seem to be present in this rate hike cycle. The initial stage may be most like 2004, and the short-term rate hike will not be slow, but the rhythm in the second half of the year is still uncertain.</b>Damage to supply chains, rising energy prices, have something in common with the 1980s; Price growth has reached a new high in the past few decades, and the Fed has been forced to respond, similar to the cooling of house prices in 2004; Under government subsidies, consumption is hot and the stock market soars, which is similar to the overheating on the eve of 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, we can't escape the characteristics of 2015. In the short term, since the Fed's core appeal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with the overheating environment of the real estate market in 2004, we judge that the short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the rhythm in the second half of the year still needs to see the marginal changes of the above problems.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>rate hike and shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve have become the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and they are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we launched a series of Fed tightening reports, systematically sorting out the previous tightening processes and market impacts since 1980s, and providing reference for the judgment of this year's trend. The first part of the series, first of all, briefly reviews the basic situation of previous rate hike, including the background, economic and financial situation and policy considerations.</p><p><b>The Fed has had a total of six rate hike cycles in the past four decades, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles, namely 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06 and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, the monetary policy of the United States was in a period of fierce changes, with Keynesianism, monetarism and rational expectation theory leading the way. In response to the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. In the 1990s, the fear of high inflation was completely lifted, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve under Greenspan was mainly based on Taylor's rule, adjusting the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, the global financial market was constantly turbulent. In all crises, the Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly the withdrawal of the previous crisis easing policy. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the degree of global monetary easing is unprecedented in the history. At present, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and inflation has reached new highs, and the market has strong expectations for the continuous and rapid rate hike of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles are rich in types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressure, bubble pressure caused by real estate and stocks, and normalization process after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, it almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain break, economic downturn, high stock price and house price, etc. The above-mentioned rate hike history has valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shock</b></p><p><b>The shock of oil supply superimposed policy objectives are vague, and the United States has entered a stagflationary a vicious circle.</b>In the 1960s-1970s, the dollar system was constantly turbulent. With the two oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, the price of industrial raw materials rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance of the United States with the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States is stuck in a long-term stagflation with persistent double-digit inflation and sluggish employment. In 1964, inflation in the United States was 1% and unemployment was 5%, and it went all the way up, and by 1980, inflation was nearly 14.5% and unemployment was over 7.5%. In the 1970s, under the guidance of Keynes's \"camera choice\", the Federal Reserve constantly weighed between controlling inflation and maintaining employment, resulting in unclear monetary policy goals, \"stop-go\" efforts to control inflation, declining public confidence in economy and government policies, and distorted economic behavior due to high inflation expectations. Until both inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he took inflation control as his core goal and implemented tough austerity policies.</b>Under the background of the \"stagflation era\" that lasted for more than ten years, Paul Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's stop-and-go policy of camera choice, and take inflation control as the most important goal, especially the balance of payments problem brought by its solution.<b>Volcker's policy thinking can be divided into two stages. In the early 1980s, he strictly controlled the incremental currency, and then turned to rate hike.</b></p><p>In 1979-1981, Volcker followed the ideas of monetarism, with the intermediary goal of reducing the money supply and strict control of credit, causing the Federal Funds rate to fluctuate wildly, reaching a high of 20% in 1980, and that year triggering the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. Manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly affected. Housing construction and automobile manufacturing lost 22% and 24% of their jobs at the end of the year, respectively</p><p>With unemployment rising, the Federal Reserve has eased policy slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply strongly, and the Federal Funds rate once again rushed to 20%. As the market expected that the Federal Reserve would not be able to withstand the rising pressure of unemployment rate, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this time, Volcker maintained absolute policy determination, firmly determined that the Federal Reserve would not give in, and kept the established course of restricting money and credit growth unchanged. In 1982, the Federal Reserve redirected its targets towards Federal Funds rate and for the first time began announcing its interest rate targets to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to move lower, falling back below 5% by the end of the recession. Over time, the Fed's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, unemployment retreated, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from the recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. From 1983 to 1984, it continued to rate hike 13 times, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the inflation rate in the United States has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of big inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Responding to upward inflation and the depreciation of the United States dollar</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become the policy goal of the Federal Reserve, and Taylor's rule has been gradually introduced, which has clarified the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the American economy entered a 20-year period of \"the Great Moderation\" with low inflation and high growth. During this period, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management and policy effect. The Fed began to more systematically focus on inflation and output gaps as major monetary policy considerations, known as the \"Taylor Rule.\" When output is above potential levels or inflation is above target, the Fed immediately adopts tightening monetary policy, otherwise it is loose. The \"Taylor's Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate should grow more than inflation, so when inflation rises, the Fed is more decisive and tough in its response.</p><p><b>The dollar depreciates, inflation rises, and the Fed responds through rate hike.</b>From the end of 1986 to the middle of 1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the US dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, from less than 2% to more than 4%, while the overall trend of unemployment rate has been steady and declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% in January-September. In August 1987, Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the U.S. stock market broke out on \"Black Monday\", and the stock market plunged by 20% in one day. To bail out the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut by Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. But the crisis was short-lived. By the end of the year, the stock market rebounded quickly and the economy recovered immediately. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to ease inflation and the pressure of the depreciation of the US dollar. By the end of the current rate hike cycle in 1989, there were 21 rate hike times of 344 basis points, and Federal Funds rate rose to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. 1994.2-1995.2: Prevention of economic overheating</b></p><p><b>The recession rebounded quickly, and the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>In 1990-1991, the U.S. economy entered a recession again. The federal funds target rate dropped from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Since then, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decrease and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve started the rate hike cycle again in early 1994. In the recession around 1991, the recovery was relatively fast, the quarterly GDP growth rate rebounded from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showed a rising trend, the stock market soared, the S&P 500 rose by 47% between 1991 and 1994, and the financial market showed a tendency to overheat.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, and the bond market was in great turmoil.</b>Despite widespread expectations for rate hike, the 1994 rate hike cycle still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of rate hike, as inflation remained at market lows of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, interest rates were urgently increased from 3.50% to 3.75%. Since then, out of concern about overheating and rising inflation, the Fed changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach of 50-75 basis points per rate hike until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, totaling 300 basis points in rate hike seven times. The Fed is tightening more and faster than markets expected. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was nicknamed the \"bond market massacre\" by the media. In the subsequent nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose 220 basis points, along with mortgage rates. Bankruptcy rates have risen sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was then the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Mexico and Argentina are also headed for a financial crisis. The Fed ends its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Fed began to increase guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved in policy communication. Previously, Greenspan has never published any FOMC meeting statements and materials to retain policy flexibility and not have to be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, the FOMC first officially announced its policy changes in February 1994, as the influence of the rational expectation school in the field of policy making expanded. Since then, the Fed has begun to clarify interest rate targets in its statement, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the disruption caused by the Fed's surprise move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: Easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>The Asian financial crisis spread, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the crisis of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russia's debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve cut interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite tremendous volatility in the financial markets, the above events had little impact on the real economy, which continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy is starting to take off, wages are rising, imports are surging, personal consumption is jumping, the CPI is exceeding the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continues to fall near 4%. East Asian and European economies have also shown signs of recovery, and even South American economies have improved. The Internet economy boomed and tech stocks rose sharply, with the Nasdaq moving all the way from 740 in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Fed withdrew its easing, and the Internet bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its monetary policy easing and begin a rate hike, effectively reclaiming the rate cut it had made at the height of the financial crisis a year ago. Despite the good economic trend, investors' expectations for rate hike remain inadequate due to inadequate market communication. In this tightening cycle. Six Fed rate hike, totaling 175 basis points to 6.5%, were followed by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cools down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Fed to easing significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, when the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 85% and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Six and four interest rate cuts were carried out before and after the September 11 terrorist attacks, with 11 cuts in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had been reduced from 6.5 percent to 1 percent, and remained in place until June 2004.</p><p><b>The economic recovery and rising housing prices raise fears of asset bubbles, and the Fed starts the rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, house prices fluctuated and rose, rising 52% in mid-2004 from the 2001 low, and the S&P 500 index also continued to rebound, rising 37% from the 2002 low. It triggers the market's worries about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline. At the same time, the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating higher than the target range of 2%, which increased the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market was prepared for a tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June, 2004, the Fed's rate hike was 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Bernanke became the chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued the tightening cycle. In this round, there were 17 rate hike, 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to take shape, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. 2015.12-2018.12: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>After the long-term zero interest rate and QE policy, the Federal Reserve began the process of monetary policy normalization.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to start cutting its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, as the stock market crashed and the risk of economic recession increased, the FOMC urgently cut interest rates, which started the nine-year road of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% since then. As the economy gradually emerged from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continued to recover, and the unemployment rate fell to around 5% from a high of 10% in 2009. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the employment gap was 100,000 jobs per month, and at that time, the economy actually added more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Federal Reserve judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. At the same time, the inflation level remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Fed started its first rate hike. By December 2018, there were nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate rose to the 2.5% line.</p><p><b>In the early stage, the rhythm of rate hike was cautious, and in the later stage, it was obviously accelerated or even radical.</b>At the beginning of the official opening of the rate hike in 2015, the Fed was more cautious. It only held its second rate hike in December 2016, one year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than the previous market expectation. However, from 2017 to 2018, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve obviously accelerated. Yellen raised interest rates three times in 2017, and then Powell further increased interest rates after taking office. There were four rate hike in 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when the US stock market plummeted, and the degree of hawkishness greatly exceeded market expectations. Since then, with the weakening of the US economy and the volatility of the financial market, the current rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession contributed to the Fed's further strengthening of market communication in monetary policy.</b>Since 2008, Bernanke has been hosting press conferences and giving television interviews after every FOMC meeting. In the current rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has been greatly improved, forward-looking guidance has been paid attention to, and market expectations have been guided to a certain extent. Even so, the taper triggered global market turmoil in the early stages of its inception due to previous unprecedented easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. What year is 2022 more like? Combined with multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Characteristics such as supply shock, soaring prices, overheating demand and policy normalization all seem to be present in this rate hike cycle. The initial stage may be most like 2004, and the short-term rate hike will not be slow, but the rhythm in the second half of the year is still uncertain.</b>The complexity of this rate hike cycle is high, and the current macro background seems to have some core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, the damage to supply chains, the increase in energy prices, very similar to the 1980s (but not yet into stagflation); Price growth has reached a new high in the past few decades, and the Federal Reserve has been forced to respond, exactly as it cooled house prices in 2004; Under government subsidies, consumption is hot and the stock market soars, which is similar to the overheating on the eve of 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, we can't escape the characteristics of 2015. In the short term, since the Fed's core appeal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with the overheating environment of the real estate market in 2004, we judge that the short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the rhythm in the second half of the year still needs to look at the marginal changes of the above problems.</p><p>Risk: Economic growth fell short of expectations, and policy withdrawal exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wthgzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What do all the Federal Reserve rate hike look like?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat do all the Federal Reserve rate hike look like?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">文涛宏观债券研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 14:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>rate hike and shrinking of the Federal Reserve are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and they are also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We launched a series of Fed tightening reports, which systematically combed the previous tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of previous rate hike.</b>The Fed has had a total of six rate hike cycles in the past four decades, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles are rich in types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressure, bubble pressure caused by real estate and stocks, and normalization process after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The shock of oil supply superimposed policy objectives are vague, and the United States has entered a stagflationary a vicious circle. After Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he took inflation control as his core goal and implemented a tough austerity policy. In the early 1980s, he strictly controlled monetary increment, and then turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become the policy goal of the Federal Reserve, and Taylor's rule has been gradually introduced, which has clarified the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation went up, and the Fed responded through the rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>The recession rebounded quickly, and the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the pace of the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, and the bond market turbulently. During this period, the Fed began to increase the guidance of inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia Finance</a>Affected by the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its monetary policy easing policy and began a rate hike, which was followed by the bursting of the Internet bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates as the stock market plunged to trigger a recession. Since then, the economic recovery and rising house prices have triggered fears of asset bubbles, and the Fed has once again started the rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>After the long-term zero interest rate and QE policy, the Federal Reserve began the process of monetary policy normalization. In the early stage, the rhythm of rate hike was cautious, and in the later stage, it was obviously accelerated or even radical. The degree of hawkishness greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Characteristics such as supply shock, soaring prices, overheating demand and policy normalization all seem to be present in this rate hike cycle. The initial stage may be most like 2004, and the short-term rate hike will not be slow, but the rhythm in the second half of the year is still uncertain.</b>Damage to supply chains, rising energy prices, have something in common with the 1980s; Price growth has reached a new high in the past few decades, and the Fed has been forced to respond, similar to the cooling of house prices in 2004; Under government subsidies, consumption is hot and the stock market soars, which is similar to the overheating on the eve of 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, we can't escape the characteristics of 2015. In the short term, since the Fed's core appeal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with the overheating environment of the real estate market in 2004, we judge that the short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the rhythm in the second half of the year still needs to see the marginal changes of the above problems.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>rate hike and shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve have become the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and they are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we launched a series of Fed tightening reports, systematically sorting out the previous tightening processes and market impacts since 1980s, and providing reference for the judgment of this year's trend. The first part of the series, first of all, briefly reviews the basic situation of previous rate hike, including the background, economic and financial situation and policy considerations.</p><p><b>The Fed has had a total of six rate hike cycles in the past four decades, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles, namely 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06 and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, the monetary policy of the United States was in a period of fierce changes, with Keynesianism, monetarism and rational expectation theory leading the way. In response to the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. In the 1990s, the fear of high inflation was completely lifted, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve under Greenspan was mainly based on Taylor's rule, adjusting the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, the global financial market was constantly turbulent. In all crises, the Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly the withdrawal of the previous crisis easing policy. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the degree of global monetary easing is unprecedented in the history. At present, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and inflation has reached new highs, and the market has strong expectations for the continuous and rapid rate hike of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles are rich in types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressure, bubble pressure caused by real estate and stocks, and normalization process after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, it almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain break, economic downturn, high stock price and house price, etc. The above-mentioned rate hike history has valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shock</b></p><p><b>The shock of oil supply superimposed policy objectives are vague, and the United States has entered a stagflationary a vicious circle.</b>In the 1960s-1970s, the dollar system was constantly turbulent. With the two oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, the price of industrial raw materials rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance of the United States with the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States is stuck in a long-term stagflation with persistent double-digit inflation and sluggish employment. In 1964, inflation in the United States was 1% and unemployment was 5%, and it went all the way up, and by 1980, inflation was nearly 14.5% and unemployment was over 7.5%. In the 1970s, under the guidance of Keynes's \"camera choice\", the Federal Reserve constantly weighed between controlling inflation and maintaining employment, resulting in unclear monetary policy goals, \"stop-go\" efforts to control inflation, declining public confidence in economy and government policies, and distorted economic behavior due to high inflation expectations. Until both inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he took inflation control as his core goal and implemented tough austerity policies.</b>Under the background of the \"stagflation era\" that lasted for more than ten years, Paul Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's stop-and-go policy of camera choice, and take inflation control as the most important goal, especially the balance of payments problem brought by its solution.<b>Volcker's policy thinking can be divided into two stages. In the early 1980s, he strictly controlled the incremental currency, and then turned to rate hike.</b></p><p>In 1979-1981, Volcker followed the ideas of monetarism, with the intermediary goal of reducing the money supply and strict control of credit, causing the Federal Funds rate to fluctuate wildly, reaching a high of 20% in 1980, and that year triggering the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. Manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly affected. Housing construction and automobile manufacturing lost 22% and 24% of their jobs at the end of the year, respectively</p><p>With unemployment rising, the Federal Reserve has eased policy slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply strongly, and the Federal Funds rate once again rushed to 20%. As the market expected that the Federal Reserve would not be able to withstand the rising pressure of unemployment rate, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this time, Volcker maintained absolute policy determination, firmly determined that the Federal Reserve would not give in, and kept the established course of restricting money and credit growth unchanged. In 1982, the Federal Reserve redirected its targets towards Federal Funds rate and for the first time began announcing its interest rate targets to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to move lower, falling back below 5% by the end of the recession. Over time, the Fed's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, unemployment retreated, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from the recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. From 1983 to 1984, it continued to rate hike 13 times, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the inflation rate in the United States has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of big inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Responding to upward inflation and the depreciation of the United States dollar</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become the policy goal of the Federal Reserve, and Taylor's rule has been gradually introduced, which has clarified the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the American economy entered a 20-year period of \"the Great Moderation\" with low inflation and high growth. During this period, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management and policy effect. The Fed began to more systematically focus on inflation and output gaps as major monetary policy considerations, known as the \"Taylor Rule.\" When output is above potential levels or inflation is above target, the Fed immediately adopts tightening monetary policy, otherwise it is loose. The \"Taylor's Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate should grow more than inflation, so when inflation rises, the Fed is more decisive and tough in its response.</p><p><b>The dollar depreciates, inflation rises, and the Fed responds through rate hike.</b>From the end of 1986 to the middle of 1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the US dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, from less than 2% to more than 4%, while the overall trend of unemployment rate has been steady and declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% in January-September. In August 1987, Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the U.S. stock market broke out on \"Black Monday\", and the stock market plunged by 20% in one day. To bail out the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut by Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. But the crisis was short-lived. By the end of the year, the stock market rebounded quickly and the economy recovered immediately. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to ease inflation and the pressure of the depreciation of the US dollar. By the end of the current rate hike cycle in 1989, there were 21 rate hike times of 344 basis points, and Federal Funds rate rose to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. 1994.2-1995.2: Prevention of economic overheating</b></p><p><b>The recession rebounded quickly, and the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>In 1990-1991, the U.S. economy entered a recession again. The federal funds target rate dropped from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Since then, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decrease and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve started the rate hike cycle again in early 1994. In the recession around 1991, the recovery was relatively fast, the quarterly GDP growth rate rebounded from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showed a rising trend, the stock market soared, the S&P 500 rose by 47% between 1991 and 1994, and the financial market showed a tendency to overheat.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, and the bond market was in great turmoil.</b>Despite widespread expectations for rate hike, the 1994 rate hike cycle still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of rate hike, as inflation remained at market lows of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, interest rates were urgently increased from 3.50% to 3.75%. Since then, out of concern about overheating and rising inflation, the Fed changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach of 50-75 basis points per rate hike until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, totaling 300 basis points in rate hike seven times. The Fed is tightening more and faster than markets expected. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was nicknamed the \"bond market massacre\" by the media. In the subsequent nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose 220 basis points, along with mortgage rates. Bankruptcy rates have risen sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was then the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Mexico and Argentina are also headed for a financial crisis. The Fed ends its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Fed began to increase guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved in policy communication. Previously, Greenspan has never published any FOMC meeting statements and materials to retain policy flexibility and not have to be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, the FOMC first officially announced its policy changes in February 1994, as the influence of the rational expectation school in the field of policy making expanded. Since then, the Fed has begun to clarify interest rate targets in its statement, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the disruption caused by the Fed's surprise move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: Easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>The Asian financial crisis spread, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the crisis of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russia's debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve cut interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite tremendous volatility in the financial markets, the above events had little impact on the real economy, which continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy is starting to take off, wages are rising, imports are surging, personal consumption is jumping, the CPI is exceeding the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continues to fall near 4%. East Asian and European economies have also shown signs of recovery, and even South American economies have improved. The Internet economy boomed and tech stocks rose sharply, with the Nasdaq moving all the way from 740 in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Fed withdrew its easing, and the Internet bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its monetary policy easing and begin a rate hike, effectively reclaiming the rate cut it had made at the height of the financial crisis a year ago. Despite the good economic trend, investors' expectations for rate hike remain inadequate due to inadequate market communication. In this tightening cycle. Six Fed rate hike, totaling 175 basis points to 6.5%, were followed by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cools down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Fed to easing significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, when the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 85% and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Six and four interest rate cuts were carried out before and after the September 11 terrorist attacks, with 11 cuts in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had been reduced from 6.5 percent to 1 percent, and remained in place until June 2004.</p><p><b>The economic recovery and rising housing prices raise fears of asset bubbles, and the Fed starts the rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, house prices fluctuated and rose, rising 52% in mid-2004 from the 2001 low, and the S&P 500 index also continued to rebound, rising 37% from the 2002 low. It triggers the market's worries about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline. At the same time, the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating higher than the target range of 2%, which increased the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market was prepared for a tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June, 2004, the Fed's rate hike was 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Bernanke became the chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued the tightening cycle. In this round, there were 17 rate hike, 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to take shape, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. 2015.12-2018.12: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>After the long-term zero interest rate and QE policy, the Federal Reserve began the process of monetary policy normalization.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to start cutting its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, as the stock market crashed and the risk of economic recession increased, the FOMC urgently cut interest rates, which started the nine-year road of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% since then. As the economy gradually emerged from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continued to recover, and the unemployment rate fell to around 5% from a high of 10% in 2009. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the employment gap was 100,000 jobs per month, and at that time, the economy actually added more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Federal Reserve judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. At the same time, the inflation level remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Fed started its first rate hike. By December 2018, there were nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate rose to the 2.5% line.</p><p><b>In the early stage, the rhythm of rate hike was cautious, and in the later stage, it was obviously accelerated or even radical.</b>At the beginning of the official opening of the rate hike in 2015, the Fed was more cautious. It only held its second rate hike in December 2016, one year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than the previous market expectation. However, from 2017 to 2018, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve obviously accelerated. Yellen raised interest rates three times in 2017, and then Powell further increased interest rates after taking office. There were four rate hike in 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when the US stock market plummeted, and the degree of hawkishness greatly exceeded market expectations. Since then, with the weakening of the US economy and the volatility of the financial market, the current rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession contributed to the Fed's further strengthening of market communication in monetary policy.</b>Since 2008, Bernanke has been hosting press conferences and giving television interviews after every FOMC meeting. In the current rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has been greatly improved, forward-looking guidance has been paid attention to, and market expectations have been guided to a certain extent. Even so, the taper triggered global market turmoil in the early stages of its inception due to previous unprecedented easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. What year is 2022 more like? Combined with multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Characteristics such as supply shock, soaring prices, overheating demand and policy normalization all seem to be present in this rate hike cycle. The initial stage may be most like 2004, and the short-term rate hike will not be slow, but the rhythm in the second half of the year is still uncertain.</b>The complexity of this rate hike cycle is high, and the current macro background seems to have some core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, the damage to supply chains, the increase in energy prices, very similar to the 1980s (but not yet into stagflation); Price growth has reached a new high in the past few decades, and the Federal Reserve has been forced to respond, exactly as it cooled house prices in 2004; Under government subsidies, consumption is hot and the stock market soars, which is similar to the overheating on the eve of 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, we can't escape the characteristics of 2015. In the short term, since the Fed's core appeal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with the overheating environment of the real estate market in 2004, we judge that the short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the rhythm in the second half of the year still needs to look at the marginal changes of the above problems.</p><p>Risk: Economic growth fell short of expectations, and policy withdrawal exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w\">文涛宏观债券研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","09979":"绿城管理控股","BK1148":"建筑与工程","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213609052","content_text":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基本情况。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。1．1983.3-1984.9：石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。2.1987.1-1989.7：通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。这一时期美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。3.1994.2-1995.2：衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。随后联储加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。这一时期，美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。4.1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机波及下，联储降息应对。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，随之而来的是科网泡沫破裂。5.2004.6-2006.6：2001年，随着股市暴跌引发衰退，美联储大幅降息。此后经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储再次开启加息进程。6.2015.12-2018.12：长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。鹰派程度大超市场预期。本轮加息更像哪一年？供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代有共同之处；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温相似；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需看上述问题边际变化。正文美联储加息和缩表成为今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是影响国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。为此，我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响，为今年走势的判断提供借鉴。系列第一篇，首先简单回顾历次加息的基本情况，包括背景、所面临的经济金融形势及政策考虑。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。上世纪80年代以来，美联储共有6次显著的加息周期，分别是1983-84、1987-89、1993-95、1999-00、2004-06及2015-17。上世纪70-80年代，美国货币政策处于激烈变动期，凯恩斯主义、货币主义、理性预期理论各领风骚，为应对长期的滞涨问题，美联储主席沃尔克执行了坚定的货币紧缩。进入90年代，高通胀的担忧彻底解除，格林斯潘执掌下的美联储货币政策主要基于泰勒规则，对经济周期和通胀进行调节。90年代末至21世纪，全球金融市场不断动荡，历次危机中美联储都积极降息，而其后的加息周期主要是对此前危机宽松政策的撤回。2015年，耶伦领导下的美联储在全球金融危机和大衰退后消退后实施了货币政策正常化。2020-21年，全球货币宽松程度史上前所未见，当前美国面临经济的强劲复苏和通胀连创新高，市场对美联储连续和快速加息的预期强烈。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。由于当下加息周期的复杂性，几乎同时包含了高通胀、供应链断裂、经济下行、股价房价高位等多重因素，上述加息历史具有宝贵参考信息。1. 1983.3-1984.9：原油供给冲击带来的滞胀困局石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。20世纪60-70年代，美元体系不断动荡。伴随着1973-1975年和1979-1982年两次石油危机和两伊战争，全球石油产量缩减，工业原材料价格上涨，商业投资放缓，生产率下降，美国与世界其他国家的贸易平衡恶化。美国通胀持续达两位数而就业不振，陷入长期滞涨的困境。1964年，美国通胀率1%，失业率5%，此后一路上行，到1980年，通货膨胀率接近14.5%，失业率超过7.5% 。70年代，美联储在凯恩斯“相机抉择”的思想指导下，不断在控制通胀和保就业两方面权衡，造成货币政策目标不清晰，控制通胀的努力“走走停停”（stop-go），公众对经济和政府政策的信心不断下降，通胀预期高企导致经济行为发生扭曲。直到通胀和失业率最终都达到令人无法接受的高位。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策。在长达十数年的“滞涨时代”背景下，1979年8月保罗·沃尔克就任美联储主席，决心结束美联储相机抉择、走走停停的政策，将控制通货膨胀作为最重要目标，特别是其解决带来的国际收支平衡问题。沃尔克的政策思路可以分为两阶段，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。1979-1981年，沃尔克遵循货币主义的思想，以降低货币供给量为中介目标，对信贷进行严格控制，导致联邦基金利率大幅波动，在1980年达到20%的高点，并在当年引发自大萧条以来美国最严重的经济衰退，失业率达到近11%的峰值，一直持续到1982年11月。制造业、建筑业和汽车业受到的影响尤为严重。住宅建筑业和汽车制造业年底分别失业22%和24%随着失业率的上升，美联储的政策略微有所放松。但随着1980年下半年经济出现企稳迹象，美联储继续强力收紧货币供给，联邦基金利率再次冲上20%，由于市场预期美联储无法承受失业率上升压力，长期利率仍持续上升，反映了通胀预期的恶化。此时，沃尔克保持了绝对的政策定力，坚定美联储不会让步，保持限制货币和信贷增长的既定路线不变。1982年，美联储重新将目标转向联邦基金利率，并首次开始公布其利率目标，以引导市场预期。但通胀继续走低，到经济衰退结束时，通胀率回落到5%以下。随着时间的推移，美联储对低通胀的承诺赢得了公信力，失业率回落，经济进入了一个持续增长和稳定的时期。随着经济走出衰退，1983年3月-1984年9月，美联储继续实施加息以稳固通胀预期，在1983-1984年间持续加息13次，共加息275基点，此后美国通胀率基本维持在5%以下，标志着大通胀时代结束。2. 1987.1-1989.7：应对通胀上行和美元贬值通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。20世纪80年代中期以后，美国经济进入长达20年的低通胀、高增长的“大缓和”时期（the Great Moderation）。该时期美联储货币政策在政策规则、预期管理和政策效果方面都有所改善。美联储开始更系统地将通胀和产出缺口作为货币政策的主要考虑因素，即“泰勒规则”。当产出高于潜在水平或通胀高于目标，美联储随即采取紧缩货币政策，反之则宽松。“泰勒规则”意味着联邦基金利率增长幅度应超过通胀率增长幅度，因此通胀率上升时，美联储的应对措施更加果断和强硬。美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。1986年底-1987年中，由于里根政府持续的美元贬值以促进贸易的政策，导致美国国内通胀再次快速走高，从低于2%飚升至4%以上，而失业率总体趋势已连续5年稳中有降。1987年初，美联储开始提高利率以对抗通胀，1-9月利率从5.8%升至7.3%。1987年8月，格林斯潘就任美联储主席，10月，美股爆发“黑色星期一”，股市一天内暴跌20%。为了救市，格林斯潘宣布联邦基金利率紧急下调50基点至6.75%，1988年利率继续下降到6.5%。但这场危机是短暂的，到年底股市迅速反弹，经济也随即复苏。美联储继续提高利率以缓解通胀和美元贬值压力，到1989年本轮加息周期结束，共计加息21次344个基点，联邦基金利率升至9.3%。3. 1994.2-1995.2：防经济过热衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。1990-1991，美国经济再度进入衰退。联邦基金目标利率从9%降至1992年3%，并持续维持低位。此后，随着经济改善，失业率持续降低，通胀也保持低位，美联储于1994年初再度开启加息周期。在91年前后的衰退中复苏比较快，GDP季度增长率从负值反弹至4%-5%，10年期国债收益率出现抬头趋势，股市飙升，标普500在1991年至1994年间上涨47%，金融市场出现过热倾向。加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。尽管市场对加息已有广泛预期，但由于通胀率始终维持在3%左右的市场低位，6.5%的失业率也尚未回到衰退前水平，因此1994年的加息周期在加息的时间和幅度方面仍出乎投资者意料。1994年4月，利率从3.50%紧急提高到3.75%。此后，出于对经济过热和通胀上升的担忧，美联储改变了其每次加息25基点的渐进方法，采取了更为激进的方法，每次加息50-75基点，直至1995年2月，联邦基金利率上升到6.00%，共计加息7次300个基点。美联储较市场预期的紧缩幅度更大，速度也更快。利率的超预期上升引发债券市场动荡，被媒体戏称为“债券市场大屠杀”。在随后的9个月里，10年期美国国债利率上升了220基点，抵押贷款利率也随之上升。世界范围内的破产率急剧上升，加州奥兰治县（Orange County）当时是美国历史上最大的市政破产案。墨西哥和阿根廷也走向金融危机。美联储结束加息周期。美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。这一时期，美联储在政策沟通方面有所提升。此前，格林斯潘从未公布任何FOMC会议声明和材料，以保留政策灵活性，不必受此前声明的束缚。90年代，随着理性预期学派在政策制定领域影响扩大，FOMC于1994年2月首次正式官方宣布其政策变动。此后，联储在声明中开始明确利率目标，从而管理通胀预期，并将美联储意外之举造成的破坏降至最低。4. 1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机后的宽松到收紧亚洲金融危机波及，联储降息应对。为应对东南亚金融危机危机、俄罗斯债务违约和长期资本管理公司（LTCM）破产对市场的猛烈冲击，美联储在1998年夏季和初秋将利率从5.5%下调至4.75%。尽管金融市场出现了巨大的波动，但上述事件对实体经济影响不大，经济继续强劲增长。美国经济开始腾飞，工资上涨，进口激增，个人消费大幅增长，CPI超过2%的政策目标，失业率持续降至4%附近。东亚和欧洲经济也显示出复苏的迹象，甚至南美经济也有所改善。互联网经济蓬勃发展，科技股大幅上涨，纳斯达克指数从1997年的740点一路走高，至2000年3月站上5030的高点。联储收回宽松，科网泡沫破裂。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，实际上是收回一年前金融危机最严重时的降息幅度。尽管经济走势良好，但由于市场沟通不足，投资者对加息的预期仍不充分。在这一紧缩周期。美联储加息6次，共175个基点到6.5%，紧随而来的是2001年的科技股泡沫破裂。5. 2004.6-2006.6：房地产降温股市暴跌和恐怖袭击事件促使联储大幅宽松。2000年至2002年间，科技泡沫破灭，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌了85%，商业投资急剧收缩。为了防止更严重的衰退，2001年1月3日，美联储主席格林斯潘出人意料地宣布降息0.50%至6%。9·11恐怖袭击前后又分别进行了6次和4次降息，2001年共降息11次，到2003年6月，利率已从6.5%降至1%，并一直保持到2004年6月。经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储开启加息进程。随着利率长期保持低位，房价震荡上升，2004年中较2001年低点上涨52%，标普500指数亦持续反弹，较2002年低点回升37%。引发市场对资产泡沫、房地产泡沫的担忧。这段时期失业率维持在6%以下并持续下降，同时CPI逐渐抬头，震荡走高至2%的目标区间以上，加大了联储加息的决心。市场为2004年至2006年的紧缩周期做好了准备。2004年6月，联储加息25个基点至1.25%，2006年伯南克就任美联储主席，继续紧缩周期，本轮共加息17次，425个基点至5.25%。2007年上半年，美联储意识到次贷危机初现端倪，本轮加息周期结束。6. 2015.12-2018.12：“大衰退”后的货币政策正常化长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。2007年8月，次贷危机促使美联储开始下调联邦基金利率，2008年1月随着股市崩盘，经济衰退风险增加，FOMC紧急降息，开启了9年的全球货币宽松之路。2008年底，美国出台了激进的零利率政策，此后基准利率一直维持在0%-0.25%的水平。随着经济逐渐从危机中走出，美国劳动力市场持续复苏，失业率从09年高点的10%降至5%左右。2015年中，美联储判断就业缺口为每月10万个就业岗位，而当时经济实际每月新增就业岗位超20万，因此美联储判断经济已经实现实质性的复苏。与此同时，通胀水平维持在2%上下区间震荡。同年底，联储开始首次加息，至2018年12月，共加息9次225个基点，联邦基金利率升至2.5%一线。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。2015年正式开启加息初期，联储态度较为谨慎，在2016年12月才进行第二次加息，与首次加息前后时隔一年，大幅低于此前的市场预期。然而，2017-2018年，美联储的加息速度明显加快，耶伦在2017年加息3次，随后鲍威尔上任后进一步加码，2018年全年四次加息，尤其是在美股大跌的2018年底仍然选择了进一步紧缩，鹰派程度大超市场预期。此后，随着美国经济走弱、金融市场波动，本轮加息周期至2019年3季度结束。次贷危机和大衰退促成了美联储在货币政策的市场沟通方面进一步加强。2008年起，伯南克开始在每次FOMC会议后主持召开新闻发布会，并接受电视采访。在本轮加息周期中，货币政策透明度大幅提升，前瞻性指引受到重视，市场预期在一定程度上得到引导。即便如此，由于此前的宽松幅度前所未有，缩减在开始的初期仍引发了全球市场动荡。7、2022年更像哪一年？兼具多种特点供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。本轮加息周期的复杂性较高，目前的宏观背景似乎兼具此前6轮周期中的一些核心特点。例如，供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代极为相似（但目前尚未进入滞胀）；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温如出一辙；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需要看上述问题的边际变化。风险提示：经济增长不达预期，政策退出超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.6,"09979":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094720153,"gmtCreate":1645238748768,"gmtModify":1676534012252,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094720153","repostId":"1154007444","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154007444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645225649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154007444?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-19 07:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The situation between Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market! U.S. stocks lose two weeks in a row","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154007444","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices closed down collectively, and popular Chinese stocks fell generally; Prevent the \"stock trading storm\" from repeating itself! The Federal Reserve introduces comprehensive trading restrictions; New York Fed questioned the need to raise interest rates by 50 basis points; The research and development process of important chips lags behind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Shares plunged more than 5%>>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: US stocks slide for second week as Russia-Ukraine situation disturbs markets</b></p><p>The situation in Russia and Ukraine and the prospect of rate hike are still dominating the market sentiment. All three major indices closed down, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 1%. The US stock market recorded a decline for the second consecutive week. By the close, the Dow was down 0.68% at 34,079.18; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese stocks closed down generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>fell by more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Dropped more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese stocks fell collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>down 4.37%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>down 3.61%, Weibo fell 5.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>down 6.05%, Bilibili fell 6.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>down 5.22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>down 3.18%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>down 1.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>down 5.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>down 6.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Fell 5.40%, Zhihu fell more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>down 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% for the week</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to close at $91.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The near-month WTI contract fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, gaining 3.1% this week for the biggest weekly gain in nine months</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold rose to its highest close in eight months on Thursday, fueled by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months this week. Gold futures for April delivery fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to close at $1,899.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures rose 3.1% this week, the biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed broadly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 0.31%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed's dovish officials call for substantial policy adjustments, and New York Fed questions the need for a 50 basis point rate hike</b></a></p><p>One of the Fed's most dovish officials has called for a \"substantial adjustment\" of monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, the second Fed official to oppose a 50 basis point rate hike next month. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams both gave clear signals that they will rate hike 25 basis points at the March 15-16 meeting, but core officials remain open about how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed Gov. Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at March meeting</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed was ready for a rate hike next month and decided at several future meetings to begin shrinking its balance sheet. \"Given the very strong numbers we've seen, I do expect that it would be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,\" Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed announces sweeping trading restrictions in case of another ethics scandal</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has officially imposed tough and sweeping restrictions on the investment and trading practices of central bankers in case there is another ethics scandal of the kind that shamed the Fed last year. The changes, in the form of regulations, identify guidelines announced last October that restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden formally signed the temporary appropriation bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of 17th, ensuring that the federal government has enough funds to continue to operate until March 11th, temporarily avoiding the dilemma of the federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Report says SpaceX splits its shares at 1:10, marking the company's first stock split</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company SpaceX is splitting its common stock 1:10, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Falling stocks like Roku and Tesla give Wood Sister's portfolio another blow</b></a></p><p>Wood sister Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with a lot of undervalued companies, but another turbulent trading day sent some of her big-name holdings deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with $2.2 trillion of options expiring amplifying losses. Stocks like Wood's beloved Roku and Tesla weren't immune, with Roku tumbling 22% and Tesla down 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna Announces Start of Herpes Virus, Cancer mRNA Vaccine Development</b></a></p><p>Moderna, a biomedical company, announced that the company has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects, which will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate is designed to prevent herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella zoster virus; mRNA-4359 was used to test the promise of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and Cruise, its autonomous technology subsidiary, said Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. Called the Cruise Origin, the car features no human-controlled components like the steering wheel or brake pedal. GM and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to get approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel Shares Plunge More Than 5% as Research and Development of Important Chips Lags</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday as CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed Thursday that server chips codenamed Granite Rapids will be delayed from 2023 to 2024 and will have to invest heavily over the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor using ultra-ultraviolet lithography technology, which is Intel catching up<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And other key technologies required by top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermes Q4 earnings are not as good as expected, and capacity limits affect performance</b></p><p>On Friday, local time, French luxury goods giant Hermes released its fourth quarter and full-year financial report. According to the data, the company's total revenue in the fourth quarter reached 2.38 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 11% at a constant exchange rate, which was inferior to the 12% expected by analysts in the context of a shortage of luxury goods. The main reason is that the revenue of leather goods and horse harness departments has dropped by more than 5%. Even if most other businesses hand over a growth rate of more than 20%, it can't offset the impact of the revenue decline of the largest business segment. Axel Dumas, CEO of Hermes, revealed that the limited production capacity limits the company's performance growth. It takes 15 hours to make a Hermes leather bag. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, considering the need for a lot of time for training, the growth of production capacity is very limited.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The situation between Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market! U.S. stocks lose two weeks in a row</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The situation between Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market! U.S. stocks lose two weeks in a row\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-19 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices closed down collectively, and popular Chinese stocks fell generally; Prevent the \"stock trading storm\" from repeating itself! The Federal Reserve introduces comprehensive trading restrictions; New York Fed questioned the need to raise interest rates by 50 basis points; The research and development process of important chips lags behind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Shares plunged more than 5%>>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: US stocks slide for second week as Russia-Ukraine situation disturbs markets</b></p><p>The situation in Russia and Ukraine and the prospect of rate hike are still dominating the market sentiment. All three major indices closed down, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 1%. The US stock market recorded a decline for the second consecutive week. By the close, the Dow was down 0.68% at 34,079.18; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese stocks closed down generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>fell by more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Dropped more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese stocks fell collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>down 4.37%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>down 3.61%, Weibo fell 5.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>down 6.05%, Bilibili fell 6.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>down 5.22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>down 3.18%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>down 1.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>down 5.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>down 6.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Fell 5.40%, Zhihu fell more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>down 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% for the week</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to close at $91.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The near-month WTI contract fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, gaining 3.1% this week for the biggest weekly gain in nine months</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold rose to its highest close in eight months on Thursday, fueled by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months this week. Gold futures for April delivery fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to close at $1,899.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures rose 3.1% this week, the biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed broadly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 0.31%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed's dovish officials call for substantial policy adjustments, and New York Fed questions the need for a 50 basis point rate hike</b></a></p><p>One of the Fed's most dovish officials has called for a \"substantial adjustment\" of monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, the second Fed official to oppose a 50 basis point rate hike next month. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams both gave clear signals that they will rate hike 25 basis points at the March 15-16 meeting, but core officials remain open about how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed Gov. Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at March meeting</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed was ready for a rate hike next month and decided at several future meetings to begin shrinking its balance sheet. \"Given the very strong numbers we've seen, I do expect that it would be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,\" Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed announces sweeping trading restrictions in case of another ethics scandal</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has officially imposed tough and sweeping restrictions on the investment and trading practices of central bankers in case there is another ethics scandal of the kind that shamed the Fed last year. The changes, in the form of regulations, identify guidelines announced last October that restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden formally signed the temporary appropriation bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of 17th, ensuring that the federal government has enough funds to continue to operate until March 11th, temporarily avoiding the dilemma of the federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Report says SpaceX splits its shares at 1:10, marking the company's first stock split</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company SpaceX is splitting its common stock 1:10, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Falling stocks like Roku and Tesla give Wood Sister's portfolio another blow</b></a></p><p>Wood sister Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with a lot of undervalued companies, but another turbulent trading day sent some of her big-name holdings deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with $2.2 trillion of options expiring amplifying losses. Stocks like Wood's beloved Roku and Tesla weren't immune, with Roku tumbling 22% and Tesla down 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna Announces Start of Herpes Virus, Cancer mRNA Vaccine Development</b></a></p><p>Moderna, a biomedical company, announced that the company has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects, which will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate is designed to prevent herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella zoster virus; mRNA-4359 was used to test the promise of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and Cruise, its autonomous technology subsidiary, said Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. Called the Cruise Origin, the car features no human-controlled components like the steering wheel or brake pedal. GM and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to get approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel Shares Plunge More Than 5% as Research and Development of Important Chips Lags</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday as CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed Thursday that server chips codenamed Granite Rapids will be delayed from 2023 to 2024 and will have to invest heavily over the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor using ultra-ultraviolet lithography technology, which is Intel catching up<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And other key technologies required by top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermes Q4 earnings are not as good as expected, and capacity limits affect performance</b></p><p>On Friday, local time, French luxury goods giant Hermes released its fourth quarter and full-year financial report. According to the data, the company's total revenue in the fourth quarter reached 2.38 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 11% at a constant exchange rate, which was inferior to the 12% expected by analysts in the context of a shortage of luxury goods. The main reason is that the revenue of leather goods and horse harness departments has dropped by more than 5%. Even if most other businesses hand over a growth rate of more than 20%, it can't offset the impact of the revenue decline of the largest business segment. Axel Dumas, CEO of Hermes, revealed that the limited production capacity limits the company's performance growth. It takes 15 hours to make a Hermes leather bag. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, considering the need for a lot of time for training, the growth of production capacity is very limited.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154007444","content_text":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美股连续第二周下滑俄乌局势和加息前景仍在主导市场情绪，三大指数悉数收跌，纳指跌超1%，美股市场连续第二周录得下跌。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.68%，报34,079.18点；标普500指数跌0.72%，报4,348.87点；纳斯达克指数跌1.23%，报13,548.07点。热门中概股收盘普跌，知乎跌超12%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%热门中概股集体下挫，阿里巴巴跌4.37%，京东跌3.61%，微博跌5.16%，拼多多跌6.05%，哔哩哔哩跌6.19%，百度跌5.22%，新东方跌3.18%，网易跌1.32%，腾讯音乐跌5.68%，爱奇艺跌6.58%，滴滴跌5.40%，知乎跌超12%，满帮跌11.34%。WTI原油期货收跌0.8%，本周下跌2.2%原油期货价格周五收跌，使其周跌幅扩大至2%以上。纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌69美分，跌幅近0.8%，收于每桶91.07美元。本周近月WTI合约下跌2.2%。黄金期货收跌0.1%，本周上涨3.1%创9个月来最大周涨幅黄金期货周五收低。在乌克兰危机推动下，金价周四升至八个月以来的最高收盘价，帮助其本周创下九个月以来的最大单周涨幅。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.20美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1899.80美元。本周黄金期货价格上涨3.1%，是2021年5月以来的最大单周涨幅。欧股收盘普跌，德国DAX指数跌1.46%德国DAX指数跌1.46%，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，法国CAC40指数跌0.25%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.94%。国际宏观美联储鸽派官员呼吁实质性调整政策，纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性美联储最鸽派的官员之一呼吁“实质性调整”货币政策，但淡化了激进紧缩的必要性，这是第二位反对下月加息50基点的美联储官员。芝加哥联储行长Charles Evans和纽约联储行长John Williams都明确给出了将在3月15-16日会议上加息25个基点的信号，但核心官员对最终需要降息多少仍持开放态度。美联储理事布雷纳德：在3月份会议上启动一系列加息是合适的美联储理事布雷纳德表示，美联储已经准备好在下个月加息，并在未来的几次会议上决定开始缩减资产负债表。“鉴于我们已经看到了非常强劲的数据，我的确预计，在下一次会议上启动一系列加息是合适的，” 布雷纳德周五在芝加哥大学布斯商学院于纽约主办的一次会议的小组讨论中表示。美联储宣布全面的交易限制，以防再度发生道德丑闻美联储正式对央行官员的投资和交易行为采取严厉而全面的限制，以防再次发生去年那种让美联储蒙羞的道德丑闻。这些变动以法规形式确定了去年10月宣布的限制主动交易的指导方针，禁止买卖个股，并提高决策者和高级工作人员的披露要求。拜登签署临时拨款法案，避免美国联邦政府停摆美国总统拜登正式签署了美国国会参议院17日晚间通过的临时拨款法案，确保联邦政府有足够资金继续运转到3月11日，暂时避免了联邦政府停摆的窘境。公司新闻报道称SpaceX按1:10拆股，为该公司首次股票拆分据报道，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下太空探索公司SpaceX正在以1：10的比例拆分其普通股，该公司的估值已飙升至超过1000亿美元。Roku和特斯拉等股票下跌让木头姐的投资组合再受打击木头姐Cathie Wood刚刚形容自己的投机性科技板块策略是一个“深度价值”投资组合，里面很多被低估的公司，但又一个动荡的交易日让她持有的一些大牌股票跌得更深了。美国股市周五下跌，2.2万亿美元期权到期放大了股市跌幅。Wood钟爱的Roku、特斯拉等股票也未能幸免，其中Roku暴跌22%，特斯拉下跌2%。莫德纳宣布启动疱疹病毒、癌症mRNA疫苗研发生物医药企业莫德纳（Moderna）发布公告称，公司新增了三个mRNA疫苗开发项目，将使用与Spikevax新冠疫苗相同的技术。根据公告披露，三个新项目中，mRNA-1608候选疫苗旨在预防二型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV-2）；mRNA-1468疫苗用于降低水痘带状疱疹病毒的发病率；mRNA-4359用来测试这项技术治疗癌症的应用前景。通用汽车向NHTSA申请批准部署自动驾驶汽车通用汽车和其自动驾驶技术子公司Cruise周五表示，已向美国监管机构申请建造和部署一款自动驾驶汽车。这款汽车名为Cruise Origin，特点是不具备方向盘或刹车踏板等人工控制的部件。通用汽车和Cruise于2020年10月首次披露Cruise Origin，并计划在几个月内获得美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)的批准。重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%英特尔股价周五收跌5.32%，原因是该公司首席执行官Pat Gelsinger周四证实，代号为Granite Rapids的服务器芯片将从2023年推迟至2024年，未来两年将不得不投入大量资金才能追上竞争对手。Granite Rapids是英特尔首款使用超紫外光刻技术的服务器处理器，这是英特尔追赶台积电和其他顶级芯片制造商所需的关键技术。爱马仕Q4财报不如预期，产能设限影响业绩当地时间周五，法国奢侈品巨头爱马仕发布四季度及全年财报。数据显示，公司四季度总营收达到23.8亿欧元，以不变汇率计算同比增长11%，在奢侈品供不应求的大背景下逊于分析师预期的12%。究其原因，主要是皮具及马具部门营收下降逾5%，即便其他业务大都交出超过20%的增速，也抵不过第一大业务板块营收下降带来的影响。爱马仕CEO阿克塞尔·杜马斯透露，产能有限限制了公司业绩增长，做一个爱马仕的皮包需要15个小时的工序，尽管集团每年会招募400名工匠，但考虑到需要大量时间培训，产能的增长十分有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094889900,"gmtCreate":1645109172189,"gmtModify":1676533998095,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094889900","repostId":"1125455457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125455457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645078408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125455457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 14:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! Read the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting in one article","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125455457","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Hong Kong Wind News Agency reported that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials at the meeting expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy may pose significant risks. There could be a rate hike soon, they said, and said the liquidation of bond portfolios could be strong.</p><p>\"Participants felt that a substantial reduction in the size of the balance sheet might be appropriate given the high size of the securities the Fed currently holds,\" the minutes said. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at a rate hike as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the minutes, the stock market regained ground after the minutes were released. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, said: \"The market interpreted these comments as more moderate relative to expectations.\"</p><p>Markets have been on edge over the past few weeks, as soaring inflation and tough comments from some Fed officials, especially St. Louis Fed President Bullard, have led traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year at 0.25 percentage points each. After the minutes were released, market expectations dropped somewhat, and there is now a 50% chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points.</p><p>\"There's been so much hype lately that I think everybody is ready for the minutes to take a very tough tone,\" Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the commission laid out procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. That balance sheet consists mostly of bonds the Federal Reserve has bought to drive down interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March is also the month when the asset purchase program ends, although some members in attendance want it to end sooner. \"Several participants expressed their preference for closing the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to bringing inflation down,\" the minutes said.</p><p>Commissioners discuss how to trim the balance sheet. The most likely way is to stop investing in maturing bonds. Still, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages outright to keep only U.S. Treasury Bond on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, the latest inflation data since the meeting shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Fed is targeting an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials have acknowledged that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes showed that inflation took up a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said the price increases were stronger and more durable than they expected.</p><p>\"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the Committee's long-term targets and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic restart,\" the document said.</p><p>FOMC members noted that inflation is starting to spread beyond the industries affected by the pandemic and into the broader economy. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to pay higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed the issue of financial stability. Officials noted that the risk comes from rising asset prices as well as the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! Read the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting in one article</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! Read the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting in one article\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-17 14:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Hong Kong Wind News Agency reported that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials at the meeting expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy may pose significant risks. There could be a rate hike soon, they said, and said the liquidation of bond portfolios could be strong.</p><p>\"Participants felt that a substantial reduction in the size of the balance sheet might be appropriate given the high size of the securities the Fed currently holds,\" the minutes said. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at a rate hike as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the minutes, the stock market regained ground after the minutes were released. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, said: \"The market interpreted these comments as more moderate relative to expectations.\"</p><p>Markets have been on edge over the past few weeks, as soaring inflation and tough comments from some Fed officials, especially St. Louis Fed President Bullard, have led traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year at 0.25 percentage points each. After the minutes were released, market expectations dropped somewhat, and there is now a 50% chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points.</p><p>\"There's been so much hype lately that I think everybody is ready for the minutes to take a very tough tone,\" Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the commission laid out procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. That balance sheet consists mostly of bonds the Federal Reserve has bought to drive down interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March is also the month when the asset purchase program ends, although some members in attendance want it to end sooner. \"Several participants expressed their preference for closing the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to bringing inflation down,\" the minutes said.</p><p>Commissioners discuss how to trim the balance sheet. The most likely way is to stop investing in maturing bonds. Still, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages outright to keep only U.S. Treasury Bond on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, the latest inflation data since the meeting shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Fed is targeting an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials have acknowledged that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes showed that inflation took up a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said the price increases were stronger and more durable than they expected.</p><p>\"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the Committee's long-term targets and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic restart,\" the document said.</p><p>FOMC members noted that inflation is starting to spread beyond the industries affected by the pandemic and into the broader economy. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to pay higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed the issue of financial stability. Officials noted that the risk comes from rising asset prices as well as the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125455457","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议纪要表示:“与会者认为，鉴于美联储目前持有的证券规模较高，大幅缩减资产负债表规模可能是合适的。”美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)强烈暗示最早将在3月份上调利率。尽管会议纪要的语气看似强硬，但股市在会议纪要公布后收复了失地。道富环球投资管理公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席经济学家西蒙娜•莫卡塔(Simona Mocuta)表示:“市场将这些言论解读为相对于预期较为温和。”过去几周，市场一直处于紧张状态，因通胀飙升，加上部分美联储官员(尤其是圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德)发表的强硬言论，令交易员预计美联储今年将加息七次，每次0.25个百分点。会议纪要公布后，市场预期有所回落，目前美联储上调基准利率1.75个百分点的几率为50%。“最近有太多的炒作，我认为每个人都准备好了纪要会采取非常强硬的语气，”莫卡塔说。除了利率外，该委员会还制定了如何开始剥离其近9万亿美元资产负债表的程序。该资产负债表主要由美联储为压低利率和刺激经济增长而购买的债券组成。3月也是资产购买计划结束的月份，不过一些与会成员希望能更快结束。会议纪要称，\"几位与会者表示，他们倾向于更早结束委员会的净资产购买计划，以发出更强烈的信号，表明委员会致力于降低通胀。\"委员们讨论如何削减资产负债表。最有可能的方法是，不再投资到期债券。 不过，一些官员说，可能有必要直接出售抵押贷款，以使资产负债表中只持有美国国债。不过自此次会议以来，最新的通胀数据显示，物价正以40年来最快的速度上涨。美联储的目标是平均通胀率在2%左右，官员们也承认，政策需要收紧以降低价格。会议纪要显示，通货膨胀在会议中占据了大量的讨论内容。这个词在纪要中被提到了73次，成员们表示，价格上涨比他们预期的更强劲、更持久。文件称:“与会者指出，最近的通胀数据继续显著超过委员会的长期目标，高通胀持续的时间超过了他们的预期，这反映了与疫情和经济重启有关的供需失衡。”联邦公开市场委员会成员指出，通胀开始蔓延到受疫情影响的行业之外，并进入更广泛的经济领域。与会者承认，高通胀是美国家庭的负担，尤其是那些最无力支付更高价格购买基本商品和服务的家庭。会议还讨论了金融稳定问题。官员们指出，风险来自于资产价格的上涨以及加密资产价格的快速上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094031421,"gmtCreate":1645018868277,"gmtModify":1676533986856,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094031421","repostId":"1190123173","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190123173","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644978386,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190123173?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-16 10:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One Picture to Understand | Q4 Position Changes of Top 10 Institutions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190123173","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持T","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The 13F position report is an important channel to understand Wall Street's investment vane. In the fourth quarter of 2021, what are the asset allocation strategies of top institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater? What targets have you increased or reduced your holdings?</p><p>The following chart lists the Top5 of the top ten institutional positions, increases and reductions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's find out!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56111d53be7ea0ea636721d765198ec1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Picture to Understand | Q4 Position Changes of Top 10 Institutions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Picture to Understand | Q4 Position Changes of Top 10 Institutions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-16 10:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The 13F position report is an important channel to understand Wall Street's investment vane. In the fourth quarter of 2021, what are the asset allocation strategies of top institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater? What targets have you increased or reduced your holdings?</p><p>The following chart lists the Top5 of the top ten institutional positions, increases and reductions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's find out!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56111d53be7ea0ea636721d765198ec1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95414d8312d8ee2d8fac46fd621f61e7","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190123173","content_text":"13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持Top5, 让我们来一探究竟吧！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095136982,"gmtCreate":1644849246279,"gmtModify":1676533967550,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095136982","repostId":"1161517578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161517578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金宏观研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金宏观","id":"1083231139","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc"},"pubTimestamp":1644796491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161517578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-14 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: Fed tightening, menacing this time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161517578","media":"中金宏观","summary":"最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In January, the CPI data of the United States exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. After the data was released, the market's expectation of the Fed's tightening has risen significantly. The probability of raising interest rates by 50 bp in March reflected by the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of expected interest rate hikes in 2022 has also reached seven. However, judging from the situation of the stock market and bond market, investors are still hesitating whether this Fed tightening is just \"loud thunder and little rain\".</p><p><b>We believe that the market is still underestimating the strength of this Fed tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are used to regarding the last round of Fed tightening cycle (2015-2018) as the reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also mentioned after the interest rate meeting in January, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's the difference this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals when rate hike opened up, the \"initial conditions\".</b>We combed the initial conditions of six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous rounds, especially compared with the previous round. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>In terms of economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2% year-on-year, while this time the GDP growth rate before rate hike was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999 and 2004. The GDP growth rate before rate hike all exceeded 4%. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, while the current unemployment rate has fallen to a record low of 4%, which is closer to the 1999 interest rate hike cycle.</p><p>►<b>In terms of inflation,</b>When the interest rate was raised in 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in the United States was only 2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI was only 0.5% (because of the decline of oil prices). Not only was there no upward risk of inflation, but there was even the possibility of deflation. At that time, the Fed chose rate hike more out of \"trust\" in future inflation rise. Officials believed that the falling unemployment rate would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), so they adopted a \"precautionary\" rate hike. On the other hand, at present, the growth rate of both the overall and core CPI is much higher than that of 2015, and even higher than that of any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has really encountered the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of rate hike rhythm,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Fed followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After the opening of rate hike, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. This time, by contrast, the Fed doesn't have as much time to wait. In the second half of last year, the Fed delayed its exit from easing, missing the best time to exit. Looking ahead, the number of Fed rate hike this year is likely to be more than three times, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 bp is not even ruled out. We chart the path of this rate hike according to current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than the last rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In financial markets,</b>The last round of monetary tightening was slow, coupled with the relatively reasonable valuation of U.S. stocks, so that the stock market did not adjust too much, and the whole situation was \"calm\". At present, the valuation of U.S. stocks is relatively high, and it is more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially the rise of interest rates. It does not seem easy to get through the whole rate hike process smoothly. In addition, under the low interest rate environment after the pandemic, the debt of the non-financial corporate sector in the United States expanded rapidly, and the ratio of debt to GDP rose from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it dropped slightly in the second quarter, it remained at a historically high level. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike is opened, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>All in all, this round of Fed tightening may be menacing, and simply extrapolating the previous round of tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the strength of tightening.</b>The current U.S. economy is like a car moving at high speed, and it is difficult to slow down without the brakes, we noted in our report \"Inflation explodes, the Fed should tighten as soon as possible\". Looking ahead, the Fed should act as soon as possible, such as raising interest rates by 50 bp in March, and hinting at more rate hike during the year. In addition to this, the Fed should also turn on the \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective way to achieve this goal is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect to start the \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter, but we don't rule out the possibility of advancing to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk situation, it is not excluded that the 10-year US Treasury yields will break through 2.5%, and there is still room for adjustment in U.S. stocks.</b>After the epidemic subsides, the economic recovery of the United States is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may resonate and recover. If the Federal Reserve is \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and its attitude is firm, the US Treasury yields may go up further. But on the other hand, rate hike is too aggressive or triggers market worries about medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and the intensification of geopolitical shocks may also curb risk appetite and limit the upside of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low interest rate environment in the past decade, the valuation of some stocks has expanded greatly, and the stock price has increased more. If liquidity tightening, risk-free interest rates rise, it will adversely affect the valuation of these stocks. Recently, although U.S. stocks have experienced a wave of adjustment, there may still be room for adjustment in the stock market when the upward trend of the US Treasury yields is not over.</p><p><b>It is commodities that are performing better at this stage and are less affected by tightening.</b>First, the Fed tightening itself is a confirmation of strong economic growth in favor of commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed down significantly in the past two years, and after the pandemic, capital expenditure is expected to usher in a synchronized global rebound, further increasing the demand for commodities (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: Step 3 for Global Recovery\"). Of course, Fed tightening will lead to higher interest rates and curb corporate investment, but this process will be time-lagged and may not happen in the first half of this year. Anyway,<b>We believe that the monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve may become the main line of global asset price pricing this year, and investors must not underestimate the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macro Data & Economic Events</p><p><b>Macro data:</b>The US trade balance in December was-80.7 billion US dollars, higher than expectations of-83 billion US dollars; The monthly growth rate of wholesale sales in December was 0.2%, lower than the expected 1.2%; In January, the annual growth rate of unseasonally adjusted CPI was 7.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 7.3%; After seasonal adjustment in January, the monthly growth rate of CPI was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index was 97.1 in January, down from expectations of 97.5; In the week to February 5th, the number of initial unemployment claims was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February was 61.7, which was lower than the expectation of 67.5.</p><p>The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in February was 16.6, higher than expectations of 15.2. The revised annual quarter-on-quarter growth rate of UK GDP in the fourth quarter was 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%; In December, the monthly GDP growth rate of three months was 1%, lower than the expected 1.1%; In December, the monthly growth rate of industrial output was 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On 7 February, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech indicating that inflation risks are rising, while hinting at a \"gradual shift\" in central bank monetary policy [2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained \"open-minded\" to central bank digital currencies [3]. On February 10, Mester, the 2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President, delivered a speech, saying that every Fed interest rate meeting this year is likely to be rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank's balance sheet [4]. On February 11, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected a \"steady\" rate hike by the Fed and hoped that the Fed would return interest rates to pre-pandemic levels \"relatively quickly\" [5].</p><p><b>Watch This Week: Macro Data & Economic Events</b></p><p><b>Macro data:</b>On Tuesday, the monthly month-on-month growth rate of PPI in the United States in January and the manufacturing index of the New York Fed in February were announced; Revised annual year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of the euro zone, quarter-on-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted employment in the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted trade balance in December, and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in February. On Wednesday, it announced the monthly growth rate of commercial inventory in the United States in December, the monthly growth rate of retail sales in January, the monthly growth rate of import price index in January, the monthly growth rate of industrial output in January, and the NAHB real estate market index in February; Monthly month-on-month growth rate of industrial output in the euro zone in December. On Thursday, it announced the annualized value of the total number of new housing starts in the United States in January, the total number of construction permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index in February, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the week to February 12th. On Friday, it announced the monthly month-on-month growth rate of the leading indicators of the Conference Board in the United States in January, and the annualized value of the total number of existing home sales in January; Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account in December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting to review and decide on the lending ratio and discount rate; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee votes on Powell's nomination for Fed chair, while also voting on the nominations of four other Fed officials; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; The European Central Bank publishes its Economic Bulletin. Friday 2022 FOMC voting committee, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting committee, Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting committee, Chicago Fed President Evans and Federal Reserve Governor Waller respectively spoke on the U.S. economic and monetary policy outlook. Saturday FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, New York Fed President<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an Economic Outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: Fed tightening, menacing this time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: Fed tightening, menacing this time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083231139\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-14 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In January, the CPI data of the United States exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. After the data was released, the market's expectation of the Fed's tightening has risen significantly. The probability of raising interest rates by 50 bp in March reflected by the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of expected interest rate hikes in 2022 has also reached seven. However, judging from the situation of the stock market and bond market, investors are still hesitating whether this Fed tightening is just \"loud thunder and little rain\".</p><p><b>We believe that the market is still underestimating the strength of this Fed tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are used to regarding the last round of Fed tightening cycle (2015-2018) as the reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also mentioned after the interest rate meeting in January, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's the difference this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals when rate hike opened up, the \"initial conditions\".</b>We combed the initial conditions of six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous rounds, especially compared with the previous round. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>In terms of economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2% year-on-year, while this time the GDP growth rate before rate hike was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999 and 2004. The GDP growth rate before rate hike all exceeded 4%. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, while the current unemployment rate has fallen to a record low of 4%, which is closer to the 1999 interest rate hike cycle.</p><p>►<b>In terms of inflation,</b>When the interest rate was raised in 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in the United States was only 2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI was only 0.5% (because of the decline of oil prices). Not only was there no upward risk of inflation, but there was even the possibility of deflation. At that time, the Fed chose rate hike more out of \"trust\" in future inflation rise. Officials believed that the falling unemployment rate would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), so they adopted a \"precautionary\" rate hike. On the other hand, at present, the growth rate of both the overall and core CPI is much higher than that of 2015, and even higher than that of any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has really encountered the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of rate hike rhythm,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Fed followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After the opening of rate hike, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. This time, by contrast, the Fed doesn't have as much time to wait. In the second half of last year, the Fed delayed its exit from easing, missing the best time to exit. Looking ahead, the number of Fed rate hike this year is likely to be more than three times, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 bp is not even ruled out. We chart the path of this rate hike according to current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than the last rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In financial markets,</b>The last round of monetary tightening was slow, coupled with the relatively reasonable valuation of U.S. stocks, so that the stock market did not adjust too much, and the whole situation was \"calm\". At present, the valuation of U.S. stocks is relatively high, and it is more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially the rise of interest rates. It does not seem easy to get through the whole rate hike process smoothly. In addition, under the low interest rate environment after the pandemic, the debt of the non-financial corporate sector in the United States expanded rapidly, and the ratio of debt to GDP rose from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it dropped slightly in the second quarter, it remained at a historically high level. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike is opened, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>All in all, this round of Fed tightening may be menacing, and simply extrapolating the previous round of tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the strength of tightening.</b>The current U.S. economy is like a car moving at high speed, and it is difficult to slow down without the brakes, we noted in our report \"Inflation explodes, the Fed should tighten as soon as possible\". Looking ahead, the Fed should act as soon as possible, such as raising interest rates by 50 bp in March, and hinting at more rate hike during the year. In addition to this, the Fed should also turn on the \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective way to achieve this goal is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect to start the \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter, but we don't rule out the possibility of advancing to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk situation, it is not excluded that the 10-year US Treasury yields will break through 2.5%, and there is still room for adjustment in U.S. stocks.</b>After the epidemic subsides, the economic recovery of the United States is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may resonate and recover. If the Federal Reserve is \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and its attitude is firm, the US Treasury yields may go up further. But on the other hand, rate hike is too aggressive or triggers market worries about medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and the intensification of geopolitical shocks may also curb risk appetite and limit the upside of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low interest rate environment in the past decade, the valuation of some stocks has expanded greatly, and the stock price has increased more. If liquidity tightening, risk-free interest rates rise, it will adversely affect the valuation of these stocks. Recently, although U.S. stocks have experienced a wave of adjustment, there may still be room for adjustment in the stock market when the upward trend of the US Treasury yields is not over.</p><p><b>It is commodities that are performing better at this stage and are less affected by tightening.</b>First, the Fed tightening itself is a confirmation of strong economic growth in favor of commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed down significantly in the past two years, and after the pandemic, capital expenditure is expected to usher in a synchronized global rebound, further increasing the demand for commodities (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: Step 3 for Global Recovery\"). Of course, Fed tightening will lead to higher interest rates and curb corporate investment, but this process will be time-lagged and may not happen in the first half of this year. Anyway,<b>We believe that the monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve may become the main line of global asset price pricing this year, and investors must not underestimate the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macro Data & Economic Events</p><p><b>Macro data:</b>The US trade balance in December was-80.7 billion US dollars, higher than expectations of-83 billion US dollars; The monthly growth rate of wholesale sales in December was 0.2%, lower than the expected 1.2%; In January, the annual growth rate of unseasonally adjusted CPI was 7.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 7.3%; After seasonal adjustment in January, the monthly growth rate of CPI was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index was 97.1 in January, down from expectations of 97.5; In the week to February 5th, the number of initial unemployment claims was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February was 61.7, which was lower than the expectation of 67.5.</p><p>The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in February was 16.6, higher than expectations of 15.2. The revised annual quarter-on-quarter growth rate of UK GDP in the fourth quarter was 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%; In December, the monthly GDP growth rate of three months was 1%, lower than the expected 1.1%; In December, the monthly growth rate of industrial output was 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On 7 February, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech indicating that inflation risks are rising, while hinting at a \"gradual shift\" in central bank monetary policy [2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained \"open-minded\" to central bank digital currencies [3]. On February 10, Mester, the 2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President, delivered a speech, saying that every Fed interest rate meeting this year is likely to be rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank's balance sheet [4]. On February 11, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected a \"steady\" rate hike by the Fed and hoped that the Fed would return interest rates to pre-pandemic levels \"relatively quickly\" [5].</p><p><b>Watch This Week: Macro Data & Economic Events</b></p><p><b>Macro data:</b>On Tuesday, the monthly month-on-month growth rate of PPI in the United States in January and the manufacturing index of the New York Fed in February were announced; Revised annual year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of the euro zone, quarter-on-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted employment in the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted trade balance in December, and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in February. On Wednesday, it announced the monthly growth rate of commercial inventory in the United States in December, the monthly growth rate of retail sales in January, the monthly growth rate of import price index in January, the monthly growth rate of industrial output in January, and the NAHB real estate market index in February; Monthly month-on-month growth rate of industrial output in the euro zone in December. On Thursday, it announced the annualized value of the total number of new housing starts in the United States in January, the total number of construction permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index in February, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the week to February 12th. On Friday, it announced the monthly month-on-month growth rate of the leading indicators of the Conference Board in the United States in January, and the annualized value of the total number of existing home sales in January; Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account in December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting to review and decide on the lending ratio and discount rate; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee votes on Powell's nomination for Fed chair, while also voting on the nominations of four other Fed officials; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; The European Central Bank publishes its Economic Bulletin. Friday 2022 FOMC voting committee, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting committee, Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting committee, Chicago Fed President Evans and Federal Reserve Governor Waller respectively spoke on the U.S. economic and monetary policy outlook. Saturday FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, New York Fed President<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an Economic Outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161517578","content_text":"美国1月CPI数据再超预期，同比增速达7.5%，创1982年以来最高水平。数据公布后，市场对美联储紧缩的预期显著抬升，利率期货市场反映的3月加息50 bp的概率已超过90%，2022年加息预期次数也已达到7次。但从股市和债市情况来看，投资者仍在犹豫这次美联储紧缩是否仅是“雷声大，雨点小”。我们认为，市场仍然低估了这次美联储紧缩的力度及其潜在影响。投资者习惯于将上一轮美联储紧缩周期（2015—2018年）看作这次紧缩的参照系，但我们对比后发现，这次与上次非常不同。美联储主席鲍威尔在1月议息会议后也提到，“这次的经济与上一轮紧缩时不一样，我们的政策将会反映出这些差别。”这次的不同点在哪呢？最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。我们梳理了1980年以来6轮加息周期的初始条件，我们发现这次与之前几轮都不一样，尤其与上一轮相比差距最大。具体来看：►经济增长与就业方面，上一轮加息始于2015年12月，当时美国经济并不算强，加息前的一个季度GDP同比增速为2.2%，而这次加息前GDP增速高达5.5%。从这个角度看，这次加息更类似于始于1988、1999、2004年的三轮紧缩，加息前GDP增速均超过4%。就业方面，上一轮开启加息时失业率为5.1%，而当前失业率已降至4%的历史低位，这与1999年加息周期更为接近。►通胀方面，2015年加息时，美国核心CPI同比增速只有2%，整体CPI同比增速仅为0.5%（因为油价下跌），非但没有通胀上行风险，甚至还存在通缩的可能。美联储当时选择加息更多是出于对未来通胀上升的“信任”，官员们相信失业率下降终将推升通胀（即菲利普斯曲线框架），因此采取“预防性”加息。反观当下，无论是整体还是核心CPI增速，都远高于2015年，甚至比1980年以来任何一次加息周期都要更高。可以说，眼下是上世纪七十年代以来，美联储首次真正遭遇高通胀的挑战。► 加息节奏方面，在上一轮加息中，美联储遵循“渐近而可预期”（gradual and predictable）的原则：从Taper到加息，再到缩表，每一步都很谨慎，且每一步之间都相差两年。在加息开启后，第一次加息和第二次加息之间甚至还隔了一年之久。对比之下，这次美联储已经没有那么多时间可以等待。去年下半年，美联储在退出宽松时一拖再拖，错过了最好的退出时机。往前看，今年联储加息的次数大概率多于3次，甚至不排除一次性加息50 bp的可能性。我们根据目前市场的预期描绘了这次加息的路径，结果显示路径更接近于次贷危机前的加息周期，而不是上一轮加息。►金融市场方面，上一轮货币紧缩速度慢，加上美股估值相对合理，使股市并没有过多的调整，整体上“风平浪静”。目前美股估值相对较高，对外部环境变化、尤其是利率上升更敏感，想要平稳度过整个加息过程，似乎并不容易。此外，疫情后的低利率环境下，美国非金融企业部门债务迅速扩张，债务占GDP比例从2019年底的76%升至2021年一季度的85%，虽然二季度小幅回落，但仍处于历史高位。如果加息开启后利率显著上行，部分现金流表现较差的公司或面临信用风险暴露。总而言之，本轮联储紧缩可能来势汹汹，简单以上一轮紧缩周期外推可能会严重低估紧缩的力度。我们在报告《通胀爆表，美联储应尽快紧缩》中指出，当前的美国经济就像一辆高速行驶的汽车，如果不刹车，很难慢下来。往前看，美联储应尽快采取行动，比如在3月加息50 bp，并暗示年内有更多次数的加息。除此之外，美联储还应该开启“缩表”。抑制通胀最可靠办法是推高长端利率，而要达到这一目标，最有效的手段就是“缩表”。我们预计开启“缩表”的时间或在三季度，但也不排除提前到二季度的可能性。风险情形下，不排除10年期美债利率突破2.5%，美股仍有调整空间。疫情消退后，美国经济复苏有望继续深化，供给与需求可能共振复苏，如果美联储在三季度“缩表”且态度比较坚决，美债利率或进一步上行。但另一方面，加息过于激进或引发市场对中期经济放缓甚至衰退的担忧，地缘政治冲击加剧也可能抑制风险偏好，限制长端利率上行空间。股市方面，过去十年低利率环境下，部分股票估值扩张幅度较大，股价涨幅较多。如果流动性收紧，无风险利率抬升，将对这些股票的估值产生不利影响。近期美股虽经历了一波调整，但在美债利率上行未结束的情况下，股市或仍有调整空间。现阶段表现较好、受紧缩影响较小的是大宗商品。首先，美联储紧缩本身就是对经济增长强劲的确认，有利于商品。其次，过去两年全球资本开支明显放缓，疫情过后资本开支有望迎来一次全球性的同步反弹，进一步增加对商品的需求（请参考报告《资本开支：全球复苏的第三步》）。当然，美联储紧缩会导致利率上升，抑制企业投资，但这一过程会有时滞，未必在今年上半年发生。总之，我们认为美联储货币紧缩或成为今年全球资产价格定价的主线，对于紧缩的力度，投资者切不可低估。上周回顾：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：美国12月贸易帐为-807亿美元，高于预期的-830亿美元；12月批发销售月度环比增速0.2%，低于预期的1.2%；1月未季调CPI年度同比增速7.5%，高于预期的7.3%；1月季调后CPI月度环比增速0.6%，高于预期的0.5%；1月NFIB小型企业信心指数97.1，低于预期的97.5；至2月5日当周初请失业金人数为22.3万人，低于预期的23万人；2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.7，低于预期的67.5。欧元区2月Sentix投资者信心指数16.6，高于预期的15.2。英国第四季度GDP年度环比增速修正值为6.5%，高于预期的6.4%；12月三个月GDP月度环比增速1%，低于预期的1.1%；12月工业产出月度环比增速0.3%，高于预期的0.1%；12月制造业产出月度环比增速0.2%，高于预期的0.1%。经济事件：2月7日，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话，表示通胀风险正在上升，同时暗示央行货币政策将“逐步转变”[2]。2月9日，美联储理事鲍曼向社区银行家发表讲话，称其对央行数字货币保持\"开放心态\"[3]。2月10日，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话，表示今年的每一次美联储议息会议都有可能加息，并支持加速缩减央行资产负债表[4]。2月11日，2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金发表讲话，他预计美联储将\"稳步\"加息，并希望美联储\"相对较快\"地将利率恢复到疫情前的水平[5]。本周关注：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：周二公布美国1月PPI月度环比增速，2月纽约联储制造业指数；欧元区第四季度GDP年度同比增速修正值，第四季度季调后就业人数季度环比增速，12月季调后贸易帐，2月ZEW经济景气指数。周三公布美国12月商业库存月度环比增速，1月零售销售月度环比增速，1月进口物价指数月度环比增速，1月工业产出月度环比增速，2月NAHB房产市场指数；欧元区12月工业产出月度环比增速。周四公布美国1月新屋开工总数年化值，1月营建许可总数，2月费城联储制造业指数，至2月12日当周初请失业金人数。周五公布美国1月谘商会领先指标月度环比增速，1月成屋销售总数年化值；欧元区12月季调后经常帐。经济事件：周二美联储理事会召开闭门会议，审查并决定放贷比例和贴现率；美国参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔的美联储主席提名进行投票，同时也对其他四名美联储官员的提名进行投票；欧洲央行行长拉加德参加欧洲议会关于该央行2020年年度报告的辩论。周四美联储FOMC公布货币政策会议纪要；欧洲央行公布经济公报。周五2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯和美联储理事沃勒分别就美国经济和货币政策前景发表讲话。周六FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一次经济展望虚拟活动上做主旨演讲。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092278349,"gmtCreate":1644643377576,"gmtModify":1676533950498,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092278349","repostId":"2210821529","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092095589,"gmtCreate":1644481798252,"gmtModify":1676533932094,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092095589","repostId":"2210672645","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098228791,"gmtCreate":1644153250891,"gmtModify":1676533894612,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098228791","repostId":"2209332881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209332881","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644139787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209332881?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-06 17:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CITIC Securities: Joy and Worry of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209332881","media":"CS宏观研究","summary":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday, but the \"mixed\" liquidity indicators indicated that asset prices still fluctuated greatly. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors. The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles, and the swing of the Fed's tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense and waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, the main line of market investment revolves around energy supply, corporate financial reports and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have increased by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>-Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 \"(2022-1-6) The view that oil prices rose first (exceeding US $90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year. 2) In terms of stock markets, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The financial reports of other companies turned the tide and drove the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the unsynchronized economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of US stock companies to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) The Fed's tightening expectations that caused a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday did not ease significantly. Instead, they were further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations of the European and British banks. The 10-year US Treasury yields exceeded 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The U.S. job market improved significantly but remained tight, and inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm employment in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain. On the other hand, the number of job vacancies is still high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market continues to be in short supply, and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, the euro zone reconciled CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high and much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of core reconciled CPI dropped from the previous month. Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices. At present, the probability of wage-price spiral risk is relatively low. It is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central Bank and monetary policy: The central banks of the United Kingdom and the European Union are releasing hawks together, and global monetary policy is tightening. As for the Bank of England, due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed rate hike's 25bps decision by 5 votes to 4 at its February interest rate meeting. After rate hike's 15bps in December last year, it rate hike again and raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced the end of maturity reinvestment of British government bonds, and at the same time, it should start selling corporate bonds to officially start a shrinking balance sheet. The hawkish degree exceeded market expectations. As for the European Central Bank, the attitude of the European Central Bank has changed dramatically as the January inflation data released the day before hit a record high. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech showed a hawkish style and no longer insisted on the previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\", which may herald the official beginning of the European Central Bank's monetary policy to turn.</p><p>Looking ahead, the \"mixed\" liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices will still fluctuate greatly. The liquidity indicator (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) during the Spring Festival holiday revealed the characteristics of \"mixed blessings and sorrows\". The \"happiness\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) The Federal Reserve has begun to have members speak to appease the market's anxiety about tightening. 2) Weakening the US Dollar Index will help reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for monetary operations for their domestic monetary policies. However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the ebb of global liquidity still exists: although asset prices have rebounded recently, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors. The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles, and the swing of the Fed's tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense and waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets picked up slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared with before the holiday</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday. The main line of market investment revolved around energy supply, corporate financial reports and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Wherein,</p><p>Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other bulk products. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>-Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 \"(2022-1-6) The view that oil prices rose first (exceeding US $90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year.</p><p>In terms of stock markets, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding by more than 1%. The financial reports of Amazon and other companies turned the tide and drove the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the unsynchronized economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of U.S. stock companies to have a forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Fed tightening expectations, which caused global stock markets to fall sharply before the holiday, have not eased significantly. On the contrary, tightening expectations were further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations of European and British banks, with the 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. employment improves significantly but remains tight, euro zone inflation unexpectedly rises</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. The employment data in the United States exceeded expectations and the inflation level in Europe unexpectedly rose.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in January was 467,000, much higher than market expectations (-400,000 to 250,000). At the same time, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was raised to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in two months. Although the unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December last year, the labor force participation rate increased significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, which was only 0.5 percentage points different from 62.7% in March 2020. From the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industries contributed the largest increase. In some areas, the requirement of showing vaccination certificates to enter indoor places may have increased people's willingness to work in the leisure and hotel industry to a certain extent. Although the household survey sample in January 2021 has changed compared with December 2020, resulting in possible errors in the direct comparison of the two-month data, the overall unexpected performance of the employment data still shows that the U.S. job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain., still on the road of steady repair.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The number of job vacancies is still high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market continues to be in short supply, and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job vacancies in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million. At the same time, the number of job vacancies in November was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Accompanied by the high number of job vacancies, wage levels continue to grow rapidly. In January 2022, the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of U.S. non-farm employment hourly wages exceeded expectations, and the year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% was the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job vacancies and the high growth rate of hourly wages show that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the short supply situation in the U.S. job market. The rapid rise in wages and prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In January, the euro zone reconciled CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high, much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core reconciled CPI dropped from the previous month. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in the euro zone reached 5.1%, much higher than market expectations of 4.4%. After reaching 5.0% in December 2020, it continued to remain high. In terms of sub-items, energy is the main factor driving up HICP in the euro zone. In January, the price of energy rose by 28.6% year-on-year, while the price of unprocessed food rose by 5.16% year-on-year. After excluding energy and food factors, the core HICP growth rate of the euro zone in January was 2.3% year-on-year, which was lower than the previous month, but still exceeded market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of wage-price spiral risk is relatively low at present. The rapid growth of energy prices has led to higher-than-expected inflation growth in the euro zone, and the growth of energy prices may be related to the continued upward trend of crude oil prices. At the same time, under the influence of wider rising prices of goods and services, high inflation in the euro zone may remain high in the first half of the year. However, with the subsequent decline in energy prices, it is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year and may fall by the end of the year. Return to levels around 1.8%. As the wage growth rate in the euro zone is relatively flat, unlike the United States and Britain, the probability of wage-price spiral risk in Europe is low.</p><p><b>The UK and European central banks release hawks together, and global monetary policy is moving towards tightening</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank sent hawkish signals. Under the pressure of high inflation, global monetary policy is tightening.</p><p>At the interest rate meeting in February, the Bank of England's rate hike was 25pbs and started a shrinking balance sheet at the same time. The hawkish level exceeded market expectations. As inflation continues to rise, the Bank of England passed rate hike's 25bps decision by 5 votes to 4 at its February interest rate meeting. After rate hike's 15bps in December last year, it rate hike again and raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%. This is the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has experienced a rate hike at two consecutive interest rate meetings. Although the rate hike is in line with market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it will end the maturity reinvestment of British government bonds. At the same time, it should start the sale of corporate bonds and officially start the shrinking balance sheet. The hawkish degree exceeds market expectations, reflecting the determination of the Bank of England to control inflation. At this interest rate meeting, some officials proposed a rate hike of 50bps, so the Bank of England may continue to rate hike in the future.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released hawkish signals at its interest rate meeting in February, and its sudden turn completely exceeded market expectations. As January inflation data released the day before hit a record high and far exceeded market expectations, the European Central Bank's attitude changed dramatically. Although the statement of the meeting was generally in line with expectations, the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde after the meeting showed a hawkish style. First of all, Lagarde said that the ECB Governing Council was unanimously worried that inflation would be high longer than expected; Secondly, she no longer insists on the assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\" that she has been emphasizing before, saying that \"the situation has indeed changed.\" The sudden shift in his argument is similar to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's first statement that \"it's time to give up the word'temporary '\", or it may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy will officially begin to turn. However, even if the European Central Bank starts its rate hike, its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to the subsequent changes in inflation data in the euro zone.</p><p><b>Liquidity indicators \"mixed\" indicate that asset price fluctuations are still large</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, liquidity indicators (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed the characteristics of \"mixed blessings and sorrows\". The \"happiness\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve began to have members speaking to appease the market's anxiety about tightening. On February 1, Atlanta Fed President Bostic changed his mind and said that the Fed's rate hike would not be very aggressive, and he tended to rate hike three times during the year; Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed disapproval of a 50bp rate hike; San Francisco Fed President Daly said that monetary policy should be changed step by step, and the current Fed's monetary policy actions do not lag behind the curve.</p><p>2) the US Dollar Index has weakened in stages, freeing up more space and time for the monetary policies of emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has a heavy exchange rate weight against the euro and the British pound, the US Dollar Index's weakness will indirectly boost commodity prices in emerging markets, reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for their domestic monetary policies.</p><p>However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the ebb of global liquidity still exists: although asset prices have rebounded recently, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate up to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles. The current economic cycle is in the transition from the mid-cycle to the post-cycle, and the inflation environment is obviously different from the past. We recommend not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Fed tightening cycle. The swing in future Fed tightening expectations may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of the monetary policies of the European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1578966434845","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Securities: Joy and Worry of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Securities: Joy and Worry of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CS宏观研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-06 17:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday, but the \"mixed\" liquidity indicators indicated that asset prices still fluctuated greatly. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors. The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles, and the swing of the Fed's tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense and waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, the main line of market investment revolves around energy supply, corporate financial reports and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have increased by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>-Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 \"(2022-1-6) The view that oil prices rose first (exceeding US $90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year. 2) In terms of stock markets, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The financial reports of other companies turned the tide and drove the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the unsynchronized economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of US stock companies to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) The Fed's tightening expectations that caused a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday did not ease significantly. Instead, they were further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations of the European and British banks. The 10-year US Treasury yields exceeded 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The U.S. job market improved significantly but remained tight, and inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm employment in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain. On the other hand, the number of job vacancies is still high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market continues to be in short supply, and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, the euro zone reconciled CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high and much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of core reconciled CPI dropped from the previous month. Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices. At present, the probability of wage-price spiral risk is relatively low. It is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central Bank and monetary policy: The central banks of the United Kingdom and the European Union are releasing hawks together, and global monetary policy is tightening. As for the Bank of England, due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed rate hike's 25bps decision by 5 votes to 4 at its February interest rate meeting. After rate hike's 15bps in December last year, it rate hike again and raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced the end of maturity reinvestment of British government bonds, and at the same time, it should start selling corporate bonds to officially start a shrinking balance sheet. The hawkish degree exceeded market expectations. As for the European Central Bank, the attitude of the European Central Bank has changed dramatically as the January inflation data released the day before hit a record high. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech showed a hawkish style and no longer insisted on the previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\", which may herald the official beginning of the European Central Bank's monetary policy to turn.</p><p>Looking ahead, the \"mixed\" liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices will still fluctuate greatly. The liquidity indicator (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) during the Spring Festival holiday revealed the characteristics of \"mixed blessings and sorrows\". The \"happiness\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) The Federal Reserve has begun to have members speak to appease the market's anxiety about tightening. 2) Weakening the US Dollar Index will help reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for monetary operations for their domestic monetary policies. However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the ebb of global liquidity still exists: although asset prices have rebounded recently, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors. The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles, and the swing of the Fed's tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense and waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets picked up slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared with before the holiday</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday. The main line of market investment revolved around energy supply, corporate financial reports and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Wherein,</p><p>Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other bulk products. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>-Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 \"(2022-1-6) The view that oil prices rose first (exceeding US $90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year.</p><p>In terms of stock markets, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding by more than 1%. The financial reports of Amazon and other companies turned the tide and drove the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the unsynchronized economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of U.S. stock companies to have a forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Fed tightening expectations, which caused global stock markets to fall sharply before the holiday, have not eased significantly. On the contrary, tightening expectations were further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations of European and British banks, with the 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. employment improves significantly but remains tight, euro zone inflation unexpectedly rises</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. The employment data in the United States exceeded expectations and the inflation level in Europe unexpectedly rose.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in January was 467,000, much higher than market expectations (-400,000 to 250,000). At the same time, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was raised to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in two months. Although the unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December last year, the labor force participation rate increased significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, which was only 0.5 percentage points different from 62.7% in March 2020. From the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industries contributed the largest increase. In some areas, the requirement of showing vaccination certificates to enter indoor places may have increased people's willingness to work in the leisure and hotel industry to a certain extent. Although the household survey sample in January 2021 has changed compared with December 2020, resulting in possible errors in the direct comparison of the two-month data, the overall unexpected performance of the employment data still shows that the U.S. job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain., still on the road of steady repair.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The number of job vacancies is still high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market continues to be in short supply, and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job vacancies in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million. At the same time, the number of job vacancies in November was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Accompanied by the high number of job vacancies, wage levels continue to grow rapidly. In January 2022, the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of U.S. non-farm employment hourly wages exceeded expectations, and the year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% was the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job vacancies and the high growth rate of hourly wages show that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the short supply situation in the U.S. job market. The rapid rise in wages and prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In January, the euro zone reconciled CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high, much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core reconciled CPI dropped from the previous month. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in the euro zone reached 5.1%, much higher than market expectations of 4.4%. After reaching 5.0% in December 2020, it continued to remain high. In terms of sub-items, energy is the main factor driving up HICP in the euro zone. In January, the price of energy rose by 28.6% year-on-year, while the price of unprocessed food rose by 5.16% year-on-year. After excluding energy and food factors, the core HICP growth rate of the euro zone in January was 2.3% year-on-year, which was lower than the previous month, but still exceeded market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of wage-price spiral risk is relatively low at present. The rapid growth of energy prices has led to higher-than-expected inflation growth in the euro zone, and the growth of energy prices may be related to the continued upward trend of crude oil prices. At the same time, under the influence of wider rising prices of goods and services, high inflation in the euro zone may remain high in the first half of the year. However, with the subsequent decline in energy prices, it is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year and may fall by the end of the year. Return to levels around 1.8%. As the wage growth rate in the euro zone is relatively flat, unlike the United States and Britain, the probability of wage-price spiral risk in Europe is low.</p><p><b>The UK and European central banks release hawks together, and global monetary policy is moving towards tightening</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank sent hawkish signals. Under the pressure of high inflation, global monetary policy is tightening.</p><p>At the interest rate meeting in February, the Bank of England's rate hike was 25pbs and started a shrinking balance sheet at the same time. The hawkish level exceeded market expectations. As inflation continues to rise, the Bank of England passed rate hike's 25bps decision by 5 votes to 4 at its February interest rate meeting. After rate hike's 15bps in December last year, it rate hike again and raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%. This is the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has experienced a rate hike at two consecutive interest rate meetings. Although the rate hike is in line with market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it will end the maturity reinvestment of British government bonds. At the same time, it should start the sale of corporate bonds and officially start the shrinking balance sheet. The hawkish degree exceeds market expectations, reflecting the determination of the Bank of England to control inflation. At this interest rate meeting, some officials proposed a rate hike of 50bps, so the Bank of England may continue to rate hike in the future.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released hawkish signals at its interest rate meeting in February, and its sudden turn completely exceeded market expectations. As January inflation data released the day before hit a record high and far exceeded market expectations, the European Central Bank's attitude changed dramatically. Although the statement of the meeting was generally in line with expectations, the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde after the meeting showed a hawkish style. First of all, Lagarde said that the ECB Governing Council was unanimously worried that inflation would be high longer than expected; Secondly, she no longer insists on the assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\" that she has been emphasizing before, saying that \"the situation has indeed changed.\" The sudden shift in his argument is similar to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's first statement that \"it's time to give up the word'temporary '\", or it may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy will officially begin to turn. However, even if the European Central Bank starts its rate hike, its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to the subsequent changes in inflation data in the euro zone.</p><p><b>Liquidity indicators \"mixed\" indicate that asset price fluctuations are still large</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, liquidity indicators (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed the characteristics of \"mixed blessings and sorrows\". The \"happiness\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve began to have members speaking to appease the market's anxiety about tightening. On February 1, Atlanta Fed President Bostic changed his mind and said that the Fed's rate hike would not be very aggressive, and he tended to rate hike three times during the year; Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed disapproval of a 50bp rate hike; San Francisco Fed President Daly said that monetary policy should be changed step by step, and the current Fed's monetary policy actions do not lag behind the curve.</p><p>2) the US Dollar Index has weakened in stages, freeing up more space and time for the monetary policies of emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has a heavy exchange rate weight against the euro and the British pound, the US Dollar Index's weakness will indirectly boost commodity prices in emerging markets, reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for their domestic monetary policies.</p><p>However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the ebb of global liquidity still exists: although asset prices have rebounded recently, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate up to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles. The current economic cycle is in the transition from the mid-cycle to the post-cycle, and the inflation environment is obviously different from the past. We recommend not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Fed tightening cycle. The swing in future Fed tightening expectations may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of the monetary policies of the European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html\">CS宏观研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4270e14fdc3e34096f78e73c39325f97","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK1564":"中资券商股","06030":"中信证券"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209332881","content_text":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。摘要春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖。春节期间，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，1)受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗商品。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。2)股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%，亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。3)节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和，反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。经济数据：美国就业市场显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高。美国方面，一方面，2022年1月新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。另一方面，职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。欧洲方面，1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，且远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较前月有所回落。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落。央行与货币政策：英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩。英国央行方面，由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应当启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。欧洲央行方面，由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话一展鹰派风格，不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，或将预示着欧洲央行货币政策正式开始转向。展望未来，流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动会依然较大。春节假期流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2)美元指数走弱，有利于降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪了更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。正文春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%。亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和。紧缩预期反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。美国就业显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高春节期间美国和欧洲公布了重要经济数据，美国就业数据超预期向好，而欧洲通胀水平则意外走高。2022年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。美国1月新增非农就业人数46.7万人，远高于市场预期(-40万人~25万人)，同时去年11月和12月新增非农就业人数分别上调至64.7万人和51万人，两月上调累计增长70.9万人。尽管失业率较去年12月的3.9%小幅回升至4.0%，但劳动力参与率显著提升0.3个百分点至62.2%，仅与2020年3月的62.7%相差0.5个百分点。从分项数据看，休闲和酒店业贡献了最大增幅，部分地区进入室内场所需要出示疫苗接种证明的规定或许在一定程度上提升了人们进入休闲酒店业工作的意愿。尽管2021年1月的家庭调查样本较2020年12月发生变化导致直接比较两月的数据可能存在误差，但是就业数据整体超预期的表现依然显示美国就业市场并未明显受到Omicron变异毒株的影响，仍走在稳步修复的道路上。职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。2021年12月美国职位空缺数达到1092.5万，显著高于预期的1030万，同时11月职位空缺数由1056.2万上修至1077.5万。与职位空缺数高企相伴随的是薪资水平不断快速增长，2022年1月美国非农就业时薪环比和同比增速均超预期，5.7%的同比增速创2020年5月以来的最大增幅。职位空缺数高叠加时薪增速高，显示雇主努力提升工资吸引劳动力，但依然难以改变美国就业市场供不应求的状况。而工资价格的快速上涨也进一步增加了美国出现工资-价格螺旋的风险。1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较上月有所回落。1月欧元区HICP同比增速达5.1%，远高于市场预期的4.4%，继2020年12月达到5.0%以后，继续居高不下。从分项看，能源项是推升欧元区HICP的主要因素，1月能源项价格同比上涨达28.6%，而未经加工食品价格同比上涨5.16%。剔除能源和食品因素后，1月欧元区核心HICP同比增速为2.3%，较上月有所回落，但仍然超出市场预期。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低。能源项价格的快速增长导致了欧元区通胀增长超预期，而能源项价格的增长可能与原油价格持续上行有关。同时在更广泛的商品和服务价格上涨影响下，欧元区的高通胀可能仍将在上半年维持高位，但随着能源价格后续回落，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落，年底可能回到1.8%左右的水平。由于欧元区工资增速相对平缓，因此，与美国英国不同，欧洲出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率较低。英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩春节期间英国央行和欧洲央行均发出鹰派信号，在高通胀压力下，全球货币政策正在走向紧缩。英国央行在2月的议息会议上加息25pbs，同时开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，这是英国央行自2004年以来首次出现连续两次议息会议均加息的情况。尽管加息符合市场预期，但是英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期，体现英国央行治理通胀的决心。而本次议息会议上还有部分官员提议加息50bps，因此后续英国央行或还将继续加息。欧洲央行在2月的议息会议上同样释放鹰派信号，其突然的转向完全超出市场预期。由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高且远超市场预期，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。尽管会议声明总体符合预期，但会后欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话则一展鹰派风格。首先，拉加德表示欧洲央行管委会一致担忧通胀高企时间长于预期;其次，她不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，表示“情况确实发生了变化”。其论调的突然转向与美联储主席鲍威尔首次表示“是时候放弃‘暂时性’这个词”有异曲同工之意，或预示着欧洲央行货币政策将正式开始转向。不过，即便欧洲央行开始加息，其首次加息的时点也将在停止扩表之后进行。同时，还需进一步关注后续欧元区通胀数据的变化。流动性指标“喜忧参半”预示资产价格波动依然较大春节假期期间，流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2月1日亚特兰大联储主席Bostic改口称美联储加息不会很激进，其倾向年内加息3次;费城联储主席Harker表示不赞成一次加息50bp;旧金山联储主席Daly表示应循序渐进转变货币政策，当前美联储的货币政策行动并不滞后于曲线。2)美元指数阶段性走弱，为新兴市场国家的货币政策腾挪了更多操作空间和时间。尽管美元指数主要是兑欧元和英镑汇率权重大，但是美元指数的弱势会间接提振新兴市场商品价格，降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪出更多的更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来会震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，当前的经济周期处于中周期向后周期过渡，通胀环境明显不同于以往，我们建议不要轻易套用上一轮美联储紧缩周期的模式，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧、美央行货币政策细节落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1,"06030":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093480904,"gmtCreate":1643685838224,"gmtModify":1676533844185,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093480904","repostId":"1121905464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121905464","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642411108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121905464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 17:18","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, and the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are requested to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Open as usual.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Open as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Southbound Connect will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Service will not be available Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>Service will not be available Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, and the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are requested to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Open as usual.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Open as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Southbound Connect will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Service will not be available Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>Service will not be available Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"STI.SI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004782061,"gmtCreate":1642691484257,"gmtModify":1676533736308,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004782061","repostId":"1177338378","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004209118,"gmtCreate":1642602163407,"gmtModify":1676533726355,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004209118","repostId":"1178155096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005303553,"gmtCreate":1642165305239,"gmtModify":1676533687987,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005303553","repostId":"1119435888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119435888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641877579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119435888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-11 13:06","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for a day on Jan. 17, Martin Luther King Jr. Day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119435888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。【背景简介】马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，192","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 17, 2022 (next Monday), U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.</p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, UK shares, Australian and Singapore stock markets all traded as usual.</p><p><b>[Background Introduction]</b></p><p>Martin Luther King, Jr. (January 15, 1929 – April 4, 1968) was an African-American pastor, social activist, and leader of the black civil rights movement. Every year on the third Monday in January, it is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a federal holiday in the United States. It is one of three official holidays in the United States that honor individuals, along with \"Columbus Day,\" and \"Presidents Day,\" which honors former Presidents Abraham Lincoln and George Washington.</p><p>U.S. schools, governments, and federal agencies are closed on this day. There will be a memorial service and a memorial service on Monday. And on Sundays before that, pastors in all districts will give special sermons reminding everyone to remember Martin Luther King's life in pursuit of peace.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks are closed for a day on Jan. 17, Martin Luther King Jr. Day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks are closed for a day on Jan. 17, Martin Luther King Jr. Day\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-11 13:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 17, 2022 (next Monday), U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.</p><p>Hong Kong shares, A shares, UK shares, Australian and Singapore stock markets all traded as usual.</p><p><b>[Background Introduction]</b></p><p>Martin Luther King, Jr. (January 15, 1929 – April 4, 1968) was an African-American pastor, social activist, and leader of the black civil rights movement. Every year on the third Monday in January, it is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a federal holiday in the United States. It is one of three official holidays in the United States that honor individuals, along with \"Columbus Day,\" and \"Presidents Day,\" which honors former Presidents Abraham Lincoln and George Washington.</p><p>U.S. schools, governments, and federal agencies are closed on this day. There will be a memorial service and a memorial service on Monday. And on Sundays before that, pastors in all districts will give special sermons reminding everyone to remember Martin Luther King's life in pursuit of peace.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119435888","content_text":"2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。【背景简介】马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，1929年1月15日—1968年4月4日），非裔美国人，美国牧师、社会活动家、黑人民权运动领袖。每年1月的第三个星期一，是美国联邦法定假日——马丁·路德·金纪念日。这是美国三个纪念个人的法定假日之一，另外两个是“哥伦布日”，和纪念前总统亚伯拉罕·林肯和乔治·华盛顿的“总统节”。美国学校、政府和联邦机构在这一天都不开放。星期一会有追思仪式及纪念仪式。而在此之前的星期日，所有地区的牧师都会进行特殊布道，提醒每个人缅怀马丁·路德·金追求和平的一生。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002454727,"gmtCreate":1642080760818,"gmtModify":1676533678673,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002454727","repostId":"2203750840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006687328,"gmtCreate":1641712606986,"gmtModify":1676533642323,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006687328","repostId":"2201147402","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001814235,"gmtCreate":1641216117163,"gmtModify":1676533583652,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001814235","repostId":"1109356305","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001990463,"gmtCreate":1641131472787,"gmtModify":1676533574730,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001990463","repostId":"2200790449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003393516,"gmtCreate":1640872653944,"gmtModify":1676533549555,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003393516","repostId":"2195613462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2195613462","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1640843749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2195613462?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 13:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Global central banks will fight inflation in 2021 and be busy \"collecting water\" in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195613462","media":"智通财经网","summary":"全球央行货币政策2021年终盘点及2022年预测。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly still the main tone in 2021, and the supply chain problems brought about by it have become the bottleneck of the global economy. At the same time, the explosive growth of demand brought about by economic opening has exacerbated the problem of short supply. The surge in commodity prices in the second half of the year has further boosted prices.. There is no doubt that inflation has become the core topic of global monetary policy this year. The hot inflation is worrying, and many central banks inevitably have to \"cool down\" prices.</p><p>Inflation becomes a \"hot potato\" in 2021</p><p>For major central banks around the world, soaring prices are an unavoidable \"hot potato\" in 2021. But the dilemma for central banks is that they cannot fully determine to what extent inflation is driven by a recovery in demand after lockdowns ended, and to what extent it is driven by supply constraints caused by port congestion, material and worker shortages. Raising interest rates will slow demand and do little to ease supply bottlenecks, which is an important driver in helping the world emerge from a pandemic-induced recession. If supply shortages ease as trade returns to normal, policies could end up being too tight, killing the economic recovery.</p><p>As a result, for most of this year, many central banks have argued that \"inflation is a temporary phenomenon\" due to the speed of economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks; Some central banks have chosen to wait and see, hoping that after supply chain problems are resolved, the pressure of soaring inflation can be eased.</p><p>However, when the short-term stimulus effects of large-scale fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy disappeared, along with the energy crisis, the epidemic caused supply chain imbalances and labor shortages, and the shortage of supply exceeded demand, which intensified high global inflation. Moreover, rising prices are gradually leading inflation expectations to rise steadily, and major central banks can only begin to tighten their wallets to curb the overheated economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b0f4258c71cd305613fa26ae29bbc7\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Central banks tackle inflation</p><p>The following is the monetary policy trends of major central banks around the world in 2021 compiled by Zhitong Finance APP:</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Gradually abandon the \"temporary theory of inflation\", Taper takes the lead, and rate hike is expected to be strong</b></p><p>For most of the year, most Fed officials have maintained the view that the current price increases are transitional and that supply chain bottlenecks and other factors are likely to subside. However, as the U.S. economy and employment have made \"substantial\" progress, and high inflation is gradually embedded in expectations, it has become increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to adhere to the \"temporary theory\", thus showing its hawkish posture.</p><p>In the first half of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift began to be released to the market, but the Federal Reserve repeatedly insisted that it would not shift monetary policy in advance; In the first half of the year, the Fed's policy tone remained dovish, generally on hold, optimistic about the economy, and downplayed inflation risks. Since the April meeting, with the increase in COVID-19 vaccine's vaccination rate, the recovery of the U.S. economy has further accelerated. In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized the help of vaccination to the epidemic and the economy, and expressed optimism about the U.S. economic prospects. As the economic performance exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve released a turn signal at its June meeting and began preliminary discussions on the Taper plan.</p><p>Entering the second half of the year, the Fed's policy has become more and more hawkish. Zhitong Finance APP once reported that Fed officials formulated a plan to slow down the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year at the meeting on July 27-28. This is the first time that the Fed has explicitly discussed tapering bond purchases at the meeting since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In September, officials discussed the specific path of reduction for the first time; Participants also mentioned the upside risks of inflation, saying that inflation levels are likely to remain high for longer than expected. On November 4, the Federal Reserve launched the Taper program, which began tapering in November and will end in June 2022; Reduce monthly asset purchases by $15 billion. It is worth noting that the bank still did not abandon the controversial word \"transitional\" on inflation in November.</p><p>But since the November FOMC meeting, the data shows that the inflation rate in the United States is running at its highest rate in more than 30 years. On December 1, Powell suddenly turned hawkish: \"I think now may be a good time to abandon the description of'temporary '.\" He also stressed that he will remain vigilant in controlling inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3e423a3b1240f9aa8633cdfba7042c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. CPI annual rate</p><p>Obviously, Powell's hawkish speech in early December was to prepare for the interest rate decision on December 16. At the December policy meeting, the Federal Reserve accelerated the timetable for ending QE and promised to end its large-scale bond purchase program before March next year instead of June as originally planned, in order to prepare for an early rate hike.</p><p>The Fed dot plot shows that all members expect the Fed to start a rate hike in 2022, specifically three rate hike in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The commissioners are hawkish on policy initiatives, firmly leaning towards rate hike. Of the 18 FOMC members, only six expect fewer than three rate hike next year, and none see interest rates remain at the current near-zero level next year.</p><p>Powell believes the Fed needs to view inflation as a more pressing risk and has raised its 21-year and 22-year inflation outlook. He also said that the Federal Reserve is likely to achieve rate hike before full employment. In November, he said that the U.S. job market may improve enough before the middle of next year to be considered to achieve \"maximum employment\". In other words, rate hike is possible before June next year.</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Inflationary pressure is small in the medium term, and easing policy remains the main tone</b></p><p>Despite high prices in the euro zone this year, the ECB has maintained a dovish stance as long-term inflationary pressures in the euro zone remain weak. The European Central Bank has always been a staunch supporter of the \"temporary theory of inflation\". The core of its policy is to adjust the flexibility of its easing policy to quickly meet the needs of economic growth.</p><p>In the first half of the year, ultra-loose monetary policy remained the main tone of the European Central Bank. Entering the second half of the year, against the background of soaring inflation and strong economic growth, in September, although the European Central Bank decided to maintain the scale of the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) and the bond purchase speed of the asset purchase program (APP) unchanged; However, it plans to slow down the pace of Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the ECB's October meeting insisted that high inflation is still largely considered temporary, but the current price \"hump\" will be more persistent than previously thought, increasing the risk of wages beginning to adjust and keeping price growth at a high level. Both eagles and doves believe that it is too early for rate hike next year, and the difference lies in the speed of continued stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.</p><p>On December 16th, compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which announced the interest rate decision on the same day, the European Central Bank's position was very \"dovish\". The central bank seemed to just continue QE in a different way, hoping to guide the euro zone economies to weather economic growth difficulties stably. The ECB said that the emergency purchase program (PEPP) adopted due to COVID-19 pandemic will be scaled back next quarter and is expected to end in March 2022, but it is possible to resume the PEPP program at any time. However, quantitative easing's monetary policy has not ended there. European policymakers plan to increase the regular bond purchase program (APP) to 40 billion euros per month starting from the second quarter of next year, and then reduce it to 30 billion euros in the next three months. billion euros, and finally returned to the normal scale of 20 billion euros in October.</p><p>In addition, at the end of December, some officials sent a rate hike signal. On December 22, Robert Holzmann, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and President of the Austrian Central Bank, said, \"In 2022, a data-driven decision will be made on whether to suspend bond purchases. In extreme cases, it is possible that rate hike will be conducted at the end of next year or early 2023, roughly at the same time as the third U.S. rate hike.\"</p><p><b>Bank of England: The unpredictable \"unreliable boyfriend\", the first major central bank in rate hike</b></p><p>For most of this year, the Bank of England has focused on easing policies to support economic recovery, and it also insists that inflation will be temporary; However, with the development of the situation, the Bank of England still couldn't withstand the hot prices in response to the increasingly serious inflationary pressure and became the first major central bank in rate hike.</p><p>What sets the Bank of England apart from other central banks is the unpredictability of its policymakers, who often catch the market off guard, which has become a hallmark of the Bank of England. Bailey, the president of the bank, was called \"unreliable boyfriend No.2\" by reporters, and Carney, the former governor, was once nicknamed \"unreliable boyfriend\". This is mainly because the communication between the Bank of England and the market is so poor that it seems that the policy makers of the Bank of England are always inconsistent in their words and deeds, and they repeatedly jump sideways in the position of hawks and doves.</p><p>On September 23, according to the interest rate decision, Bank of England officials unanimously voted to keep the main interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged; Its core expectation is that current global cost pressures will prove to be temporary.</p><p>But in August, UK inflation increased by 3.2% year-on-year, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, and significantly exceeded the bank's target of 2%. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, analysts expect this to be just a short respite for consumers. UK CPI rose by 4.2% in October; Some Bank of England policymakers, such as Governor Bailey and famous hawk michael saunders, have hinted at their support for immediate rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65d10eae0fb3746795c8c3604040c12\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>UK CPI Annual Rate</p><p>But on November 4, the Bank of England once again kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged, contrary to many investors' expectations that the Bank of England would become the first major central bank in rate hike after the outbreak. Many investors criticized the bank for not doing the rate hike as expected and communicating poorly with the market.</p><p>UK inflation hit a 10-year high in November, with CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Despite high prices, thanks to the situation in November, most investors are still betting that the Bank of England will not rate hike.</p><p>However, on December 16, the Bank of England couldn't withstand inflationary pressure after all, and raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, which surprised the market. This was the first time that the bank raised the benchmark interest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the Bank of England has become the first central bank in rate hike among the three major central banks in the world.</p><p><b>Other central banks: rate hike's suppression of inflation becomes mainstream</b></p><p>As the economies of various countries gradually recover from last year's recession, inflation seems to exceed the expectations of policy makers, and the positions of major central banks have shifted one after another; Most central banks have even taken aggressive measures and begun to withdraw monetary stimulus measures to avoid the potential unanchoring of inflation expectations.</p><p>Although the Bank of Japan still maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy, it will partially withdraw from the corporate financing policy introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic after it expires, and significantly reduce ETF purchases this year, which may fall to the lowest level since 2012.</p><p>The Norwegian Bank and the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank are the two G10 central banks that took the lead in rate hike this year. They have both rate hike twice and are likely to continue rate hike next year; Norway is also the first developed economy to have a rate hike after the epidemic.</p><p>For other regions, Latin American central banks have become the main force in the global rate hike camp during the year; The Brazilian central bank, the major central bank with the largest and largest rate hike during the year, raised interest rates by 150 basis points to 9.25% at its latest meeting. In sharp contrast to Latin American central banks holding high the banner of rate hike, it was the calm of major Asian central banks during the year.</p><p>In emerging markets, the weighted policy rate of all economies has risen from 4.5% to 5% in recent months, with 10 of the 21 central banks in rate hike and 3 cutting interest rates (Indonesian, Turkish and North Macedonian).</p><p>Outlook for 2022: It seems a foregone conclusion that major central banks will \"collect water\"</p><p>With the end of the last meeting of the world's major central banks in 2021, the market has begun to have a clear understanding of the attitude of central banks. The policy shift of major central banks seems to reflect their attempts to live with the epidemic. ECB President Christine Lagarde said: \"Many people have been vaccinated and the booster shot campaign is accelerating. Societies have become better at coping with the epidemic wave and the restrictions it brings, which has mitigated the impact of the epidemic on the economy.\"</p><p>What's more, as central bankers learn more about widespread inflation, they have developed different views on how the outbreak of the new virus affects the economy. In the early days of the pandemic, the focus was that lockdowns would dampen consumer demand, which loose monetary policy could help boost. Now, officials' concerns that turning to anti-epidemic restrictions will hinder the supply and transportation of goods, driving up prices, also strengthens rate hike's case.</p><p>Right now, most central banks are starting to get uneasy about high inflation, and it seems only a matter of time before monetary stimulus is tightened in 2022. Among advanced economies, the weighted policy rate across all countries has edged up from a record low of 0.07% to 0.14% in recent months, with six of 17 central banks raising interest rates. Before the pandemic, the advanced economy weighted policy rate was 0.8%, which still has plenty of room to rise by comparison.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f18f8dbb732e024659873129711d9\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In emerging markets, before the COVID-19 epidemic, the weighted policy interest rate of emerging markets was 5.5%, and there is still some room for rate hike. Unless COVID-19 pandemic hampers the economic recovery, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. In addition, the Federal Reserve joining the ranks of rate hike next year may put some pressure on monetary policy in emerging markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6633279b1ed5cadfed7455edd4fdf3f\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, as the \"wind vane\" of global monetary policy, will undoubtedly lead the mainstream of global monetary policy next year. Therefore, the market has also paid a lot of attention to these three central banks.</p><p><b>Fed: Ending Taper Is A Degree, rate hike Is Just a Matter of Speed</b></p><p>The hot economy of the United States is further pushing up its prices, and in addition to the high energy prices, the high housing prices and service industry costs also reflect the \"stickiness\" of the rising prices in the United States. The Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core PCE price index measure, also continues to be above the 2% target. Therefore, unless the epidemic severely impacts the U.S. economy again next year, the end of Taper in March is already a certainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b446630969e35dcc006531adf239f4\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market is more concerned about when the Federal Reserve will rate hike and rate hike several times next year. The latest interest rate dot plot of the Federal Reserve in December shows that, based on a 25 basis point rate hike, all 18 officials attending the meeting expect the Federal Reserve to rate hike next year. Among them, only one expects rate hike once next year, five expects rate hike twice next year, 10 expects rate hike three times next year, and two expects rate hike four times next year. The median expectation falls above rate hike three times next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5066bbae70662dedaeaa5ed3574f641\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Federal Reserve's interest rate dot plot itself has always been known for its changeability, and current expectations do not equal actual actions next year. However, according to \"Fedwatch\", the market expects that the Federal Reserve may conduct a rate hike as early as March next year, with a probability of a rate hike reaching 53.8%. In addition, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in the middle of next year to reach 91.21%, of which the probability of two rate hike is expected to reach 41.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f4751ed9bfd0e7e575d641b45290a86\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea890048b1132c8498020f37d819f64\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CME group's FedWatch tool uses 30-day federal funds futures pricing data to analyze the possibility of interest rate adjustments at future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Keep interest rates unchanged, change QE</b></p><p>At the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that \"rate hike in 2022 is unlikely.\" Moreover, judging from the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and official speeches, although the European Central Bank will end the PEPP in 2022, it will still maintain the flexibility of sufficient scale bond purchases to meet the needs of economic growth, and the European Central Bank also plans to reinvest the principal of maturing bonds.</p><p>At the December meeting, ECB officials' inflation forecasts for the euro zone in 2023 and 2024 remained below 2%. Compared with the United States, the inflation risk in the euro zone is indeed lower.</p><p>First, because the euro zone has not issued government subsidies on a large scale like the United States, there is a gap in residents' income, and consumer spending is definitely not as strong as that of the United States. Second, the peak of the overall money supply expansion in the euro zone is 10%-15%, while that in the United States has reached more than 25%. In addition, the wage growth rate in the euro zone is still moderate, and there has not been an accelerated wage increase like that in the United States. Therefore, supply bottlenecks are the main reason for the upward risk of inflation in Europe.</p><p>And as far as the ECB is concerned, it must also take into account the major differences within the euro zone for which it makes policies. Any large-scale withdrawal of crisis support may bring debt crises to some member countries, for example, affecting the sustainability of the high debt burden of economies such as Italy.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that price increases in the euro zone will continue and have begun to pay attention to the possibility of the European Central Bank's policy normalization in 2023; Currently, some investors are betting that the European Central Bank may rate hike by 15 basis points by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Bank of England: Or rate hike 100 basis points, reaching key interest rate will trigger QT</b></p><p>According to the pound overnight index swap, the market currently expects the Bank of England to raise the rate hike by 100 basis points (that is, the key interest rate will rise from 0.25% to 1.25%) by December 2022 as the labor market drives inflation, even under the risk of the epidemic posed by the Omicron variant.%), by which time the key interest rate will be above 1% for the first time since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f17ce49e74ff9aa9c907f21028364ef\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, if the Bank of England raises interest rates to the key level of 0.5% at its meeting in February next year, quantitative tightening (QT) could be initiated, meaning it will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing notes, automatically reducing its portfolio size when debt matures. Secondly, a more aggressive move by the Bank of England will mean that after interest rates reach 1%, there may be an aggressive sale of UK Treasury Bond. Money markets expect interest rates to hit this level in August. However, traders are speculating when and how the Bank of England will introduce this monetary policy given the risk of a recurrence of the epidemic threatening the economic outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56705394c28562ca7d5f6de663c3cca\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>epilogue</p><p>As the core counter-cyclical adjustment tool to hedge economic fluctuations, monetary policy is often the most powerful means; At the same time, price stability and economic growth can't have it both ways in the short term, like \"fish\" and \"bear's cake\". In 2021, after flooding and in the context of supply shortages, soaring inflation will inevitably follow; High inflation may be a medium-and long-term problem. Next, the task of stabilizing prices has been put on the desks of major policy makers.</p><p>In 2022, it is time for the market to get out of the \"good night\" of monetary easing. The hot economy cannot last forever. At the end of 2021, major central banks have already kicked off tightening policies. Unless the \"black swan\" of COVID-19 pandemic deals a severe blow to the economic recovery, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. With the withdrawal of loose stimulus policies and the progress of the economic cycle, the growth prospects of major economies may face greater pressure next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global central banks will fight inflation in 2021 and be busy \"collecting water\" in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal central banks will fight inflation in 2021 and be busy \"collecting water\" in 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 13:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly still the main tone in 2021, and the supply chain problems brought about by it have become the bottleneck of the global economy. At the same time, the explosive growth of demand brought about by economic opening has exacerbated the problem of short supply. The surge in commodity prices in the second half of the year has further boosted prices.. There is no doubt that inflation has become the core topic of global monetary policy this year. The hot inflation is worrying, and many central banks inevitably have to \"cool down\" prices.</p><p>Inflation becomes a \"hot potato\" in 2021</p><p>For major central banks around the world, soaring prices are an unavoidable \"hot potato\" in 2021. But the dilemma for central banks is that they cannot fully determine to what extent inflation is driven by a recovery in demand after lockdowns ended, and to what extent it is driven by supply constraints caused by port congestion, material and worker shortages. Raising interest rates will slow demand and do little to ease supply bottlenecks, which is an important driver in helping the world emerge from a pandemic-induced recession. If supply shortages ease as trade returns to normal, policies could end up being too tight, killing the economic recovery.</p><p>As a result, for most of this year, many central banks have argued that \"inflation is a temporary phenomenon\" due to the speed of economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks; Some central banks have chosen to wait and see, hoping that after supply chain problems are resolved, the pressure of soaring inflation can be eased.</p><p>However, when the short-term stimulus effects of large-scale fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy disappeared, along with the energy crisis, the epidemic caused supply chain imbalances and labor shortages, and the shortage of supply exceeded demand, which intensified high global inflation. Moreover, rising prices are gradually leading inflation expectations to rise steadily, and major central banks can only begin to tighten their wallets to curb the overheated economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b0f4258c71cd305613fa26ae29bbc7\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Central banks tackle inflation</p><p>The following is the monetary policy trends of major central banks around the world in 2021 compiled by Zhitong Finance APP:</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Gradually abandon the \"temporary theory of inflation\", Taper takes the lead, and rate hike is expected to be strong</b></p><p>For most of the year, most Fed officials have maintained the view that the current price increases are transitional and that supply chain bottlenecks and other factors are likely to subside. However, as the U.S. economy and employment have made \"substantial\" progress, and high inflation is gradually embedded in expectations, it has become increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to adhere to the \"temporary theory\", thus showing its hawkish posture.</p><p>In the first half of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift began to be released to the market, but the Federal Reserve repeatedly insisted that it would not shift monetary policy in advance; In the first half of the year, the Fed's policy tone remained dovish, generally on hold, optimistic about the economy, and downplayed inflation risks. Since the April meeting, with the increase in COVID-19 vaccine's vaccination rate, the recovery of the U.S. economy has further accelerated. In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized the help of vaccination to the epidemic and the economy, and expressed optimism about the U.S. economic prospects. As the economic performance exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve released a turn signal at its June meeting and began preliminary discussions on the Taper plan.</p><p>Entering the second half of the year, the Fed's policy has become more and more hawkish. Zhitong Finance APP once reported that Fed officials formulated a plan to slow down the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year at the meeting on July 27-28. This is the first time that the Fed has explicitly discussed tapering bond purchases at the meeting since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In September, officials discussed the specific path of reduction for the first time; Participants also mentioned the upside risks of inflation, saying that inflation levels are likely to remain high for longer than expected. On November 4, the Federal Reserve launched the Taper program, which began tapering in November and will end in June 2022; Reduce monthly asset purchases by $15 billion. It is worth noting that the bank still did not abandon the controversial word \"transitional\" on inflation in November.</p><p>But since the November FOMC meeting, the data shows that the inflation rate in the United States is running at its highest rate in more than 30 years. On December 1, Powell suddenly turned hawkish: \"I think now may be a good time to abandon the description of'temporary '.\" He also stressed that he will remain vigilant in controlling inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3e423a3b1240f9aa8633cdfba7042c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. CPI annual rate</p><p>Obviously, Powell's hawkish speech in early December was to prepare for the interest rate decision on December 16. At the December policy meeting, the Federal Reserve accelerated the timetable for ending QE and promised to end its large-scale bond purchase program before March next year instead of June as originally planned, in order to prepare for an early rate hike.</p><p>The Fed dot plot shows that all members expect the Fed to start a rate hike in 2022, specifically three rate hike in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The commissioners are hawkish on policy initiatives, firmly leaning towards rate hike. Of the 18 FOMC members, only six expect fewer than three rate hike next year, and none see interest rates remain at the current near-zero level next year.</p><p>Powell believes the Fed needs to view inflation as a more pressing risk and has raised its 21-year and 22-year inflation outlook. He also said that the Federal Reserve is likely to achieve rate hike before full employment. In November, he said that the U.S. job market may improve enough before the middle of next year to be considered to achieve \"maximum employment\". In other words, rate hike is possible before June next year.</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Inflationary pressure is small in the medium term, and easing policy remains the main tone</b></p><p>Despite high prices in the euro zone this year, the ECB has maintained a dovish stance as long-term inflationary pressures in the euro zone remain weak. The European Central Bank has always been a staunch supporter of the \"temporary theory of inflation\". The core of its policy is to adjust the flexibility of its easing policy to quickly meet the needs of economic growth.</p><p>In the first half of the year, ultra-loose monetary policy remained the main tone of the European Central Bank. Entering the second half of the year, against the background of soaring inflation and strong economic growth, in September, although the European Central Bank decided to maintain the scale of the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) and the bond purchase speed of the asset purchase program (APP) unchanged; However, it plans to slow down the pace of Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the ECB's October meeting insisted that high inflation is still largely considered temporary, but the current price \"hump\" will be more persistent than previously thought, increasing the risk of wages beginning to adjust and keeping price growth at a high level. Both eagles and doves believe that it is too early for rate hike next year, and the difference lies in the speed of continued stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.</p><p>On December 16th, compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which announced the interest rate decision on the same day, the European Central Bank's position was very \"dovish\". The central bank seemed to just continue QE in a different way, hoping to guide the euro zone economies to weather economic growth difficulties stably. The ECB said that the emergency purchase program (PEPP) adopted due to COVID-19 pandemic will be scaled back next quarter and is expected to end in March 2022, but it is possible to resume the PEPP program at any time. However, quantitative easing's monetary policy has not ended there. European policymakers plan to increase the regular bond purchase program (APP) to 40 billion euros per month starting from the second quarter of next year, and then reduce it to 30 billion euros in the next three months. billion euros, and finally returned to the normal scale of 20 billion euros in October.</p><p>In addition, at the end of December, some officials sent a rate hike signal. On December 22, Robert Holzmann, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and President of the Austrian Central Bank, said, \"In 2022, a data-driven decision will be made on whether to suspend bond purchases. In extreme cases, it is possible that rate hike will be conducted at the end of next year or early 2023, roughly at the same time as the third U.S. rate hike.\"</p><p><b>Bank of England: The unpredictable \"unreliable boyfriend\", the first major central bank in rate hike</b></p><p>For most of this year, the Bank of England has focused on easing policies to support economic recovery, and it also insists that inflation will be temporary; However, with the development of the situation, the Bank of England still couldn't withstand the hot prices in response to the increasingly serious inflationary pressure and became the first major central bank in rate hike.</p><p>What sets the Bank of England apart from other central banks is the unpredictability of its policymakers, who often catch the market off guard, which has become a hallmark of the Bank of England. Bailey, the president of the bank, was called \"unreliable boyfriend No.2\" by reporters, and Carney, the former governor, was once nicknamed \"unreliable boyfriend\". This is mainly because the communication between the Bank of England and the market is so poor that it seems that the policy makers of the Bank of England are always inconsistent in their words and deeds, and they repeatedly jump sideways in the position of hawks and doves.</p><p>On September 23, according to the interest rate decision, Bank of England officials unanimously voted to keep the main interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged; Its core expectation is that current global cost pressures will prove to be temporary.</p><p>But in August, UK inflation increased by 3.2% year-on-year, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, and significantly exceeded the bank's target of 2%. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, analysts expect this to be just a short respite for consumers. UK CPI rose by 4.2% in October; Some Bank of England policymakers, such as Governor Bailey and famous hawk michael saunders, have hinted at their support for immediate rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65d10eae0fb3746795c8c3604040c12\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>UK CPI Annual Rate</p><p>But on November 4, the Bank of England once again kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged, contrary to many investors' expectations that the Bank of England would become the first major central bank in rate hike after the outbreak. Many investors criticized the bank for not doing the rate hike as expected and communicating poorly with the market.</p><p>UK inflation hit a 10-year high in November, with CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Despite high prices, thanks to the situation in November, most investors are still betting that the Bank of England will not rate hike.</p><p>However, on December 16, the Bank of England couldn't withstand inflationary pressure after all, and raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, which surprised the market. This was the first time that the bank raised the benchmark interest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the Bank of England has become the first central bank in rate hike among the three major central banks in the world.</p><p><b>Other central banks: rate hike's suppression of inflation becomes mainstream</b></p><p>As the economies of various countries gradually recover from last year's recession, inflation seems to exceed the expectations of policy makers, and the positions of major central banks have shifted one after another; Most central banks have even taken aggressive measures and begun to withdraw monetary stimulus measures to avoid the potential unanchoring of inflation expectations.</p><p>Although the Bank of Japan still maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy, it will partially withdraw from the corporate financing policy introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic after it expires, and significantly reduce ETF purchases this year, which may fall to the lowest level since 2012.</p><p>The Norwegian Bank and the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank are the two G10 central banks that took the lead in rate hike this year. They have both rate hike twice and are likely to continue rate hike next year; Norway is also the first developed economy to have a rate hike after the epidemic.</p><p>For other regions, Latin American central banks have become the main force in the global rate hike camp during the year; The Brazilian central bank, the major central bank with the largest and largest rate hike during the year, raised interest rates by 150 basis points to 9.25% at its latest meeting. In sharp contrast to Latin American central banks holding high the banner of rate hike, it was the calm of major Asian central banks during the year.</p><p>In emerging markets, the weighted policy rate of all economies has risen from 4.5% to 5% in recent months, with 10 of the 21 central banks in rate hike and 3 cutting interest rates (Indonesian, Turkish and North Macedonian).</p><p>Outlook for 2022: It seems a foregone conclusion that major central banks will \"collect water\"</p><p>With the end of the last meeting of the world's major central banks in 2021, the market has begun to have a clear understanding of the attitude of central banks. The policy shift of major central banks seems to reflect their attempts to live with the epidemic. ECB President Christine Lagarde said: \"Many people have been vaccinated and the booster shot campaign is accelerating. Societies have become better at coping with the epidemic wave and the restrictions it brings, which has mitigated the impact of the epidemic on the economy.\"</p><p>What's more, as central bankers learn more about widespread inflation, they have developed different views on how the outbreak of the new virus affects the economy. In the early days of the pandemic, the focus was that lockdowns would dampen consumer demand, which loose monetary policy could help boost. Now, officials' concerns that turning to anti-epidemic restrictions will hinder the supply and transportation of goods, driving up prices, also strengthens rate hike's case.</p><p>Right now, most central banks are starting to get uneasy about high inflation, and it seems only a matter of time before monetary stimulus is tightened in 2022. Among advanced economies, the weighted policy rate across all countries has edged up from a record low of 0.07% to 0.14% in recent months, with six of 17 central banks raising interest rates. Before the pandemic, the advanced economy weighted policy rate was 0.8%, which still has plenty of room to rise by comparison.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f18f8dbb732e024659873129711d9\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In emerging markets, before the COVID-19 epidemic, the weighted policy interest rate of emerging markets was 5.5%, and there is still some room for rate hike. Unless COVID-19 pandemic hampers the economic recovery, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. In addition, the Federal Reserve joining the ranks of rate hike next year may put some pressure on monetary policy in emerging markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6633279b1ed5cadfed7455edd4fdf3f\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, as the \"wind vane\" of global monetary policy, will undoubtedly lead the mainstream of global monetary policy next year. Therefore, the market has also paid a lot of attention to these three central banks.</p><p><b>Fed: Ending Taper Is A Degree, rate hike Is Just a Matter of Speed</b></p><p>The hot economy of the United States is further pushing up its prices, and in addition to the high energy prices, the high housing prices and service industry costs also reflect the \"stickiness\" of the rising prices in the United States. The Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core PCE price index measure, also continues to be above the 2% target. Therefore, unless the epidemic severely impacts the U.S. economy again next year, the end of Taper in March is already a certainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b446630969e35dcc006531adf239f4\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market is more concerned about when the Federal Reserve will rate hike and rate hike several times next year. The latest interest rate dot plot of the Federal Reserve in December shows that, based on a 25 basis point rate hike, all 18 officials attending the meeting expect the Federal Reserve to rate hike next year. Among them, only one expects rate hike once next year, five expects rate hike twice next year, 10 expects rate hike three times next year, and two expects rate hike four times next year. The median expectation falls above rate hike three times next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5066bbae70662dedaeaa5ed3574f641\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Federal Reserve's interest rate dot plot itself has always been known for its changeability, and current expectations do not equal actual actions next year. However, according to \"Fedwatch\", the market expects that the Federal Reserve may conduct a rate hike as early as March next year, with a probability of a rate hike reaching 53.8%. In addition, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in the middle of next year to reach 91.21%, of which the probability of two rate hike is expected to reach 41.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f4751ed9bfd0e7e575d641b45290a86\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea890048b1132c8498020f37d819f64\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CME group's FedWatch tool uses 30-day federal funds futures pricing data to analyze the possibility of interest rate adjustments at future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Keep interest rates unchanged, change QE</b></p><p>At the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that \"rate hike in 2022 is unlikely.\" Moreover, judging from the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and official speeches, although the European Central Bank will end the PEPP in 2022, it will still maintain the flexibility of sufficient scale bond purchases to meet the needs of economic growth, and the European Central Bank also plans to reinvest the principal of maturing bonds.</p><p>At the December meeting, ECB officials' inflation forecasts for the euro zone in 2023 and 2024 remained below 2%. Compared with the United States, the inflation risk in the euro zone is indeed lower.</p><p>First, because the euro zone has not issued government subsidies on a large scale like the United States, there is a gap in residents' income, and consumer spending is definitely not as strong as that of the United States. Second, the peak of the overall money supply expansion in the euro zone is 10%-15%, while that in the United States has reached more than 25%. In addition, the wage growth rate in the euro zone is still moderate, and there has not been an accelerated wage increase like that in the United States. Therefore, supply bottlenecks are the main reason for the upward risk of inflation in Europe.</p><p>And as far as the ECB is concerned, it must also take into account the major differences within the euro zone for which it makes policies. Any large-scale withdrawal of crisis support may bring debt crises to some member countries, for example, affecting the sustainability of the high debt burden of economies such as Italy.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that price increases in the euro zone will continue and have begun to pay attention to the possibility of the European Central Bank's policy normalization in 2023; Currently, some investors are betting that the European Central Bank may rate hike by 15 basis points by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Bank of England: Or rate hike 100 basis points, reaching key interest rate will trigger QT</b></p><p>According to the pound overnight index swap, the market currently expects the Bank of England to raise the rate hike by 100 basis points (that is, the key interest rate will rise from 0.25% to 1.25%) by December 2022 as the labor market drives inflation, even under the risk of the epidemic posed by the Omicron variant.%), by which time the key interest rate will be above 1% for the first time since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f17ce49e74ff9aa9c907f21028364ef\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, if the Bank of England raises interest rates to the key level of 0.5% at its meeting in February next year, quantitative tightening (QT) could be initiated, meaning it will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing notes, automatically reducing its portfolio size when debt matures. Secondly, a more aggressive move by the Bank of England will mean that after interest rates reach 1%, there may be an aggressive sale of UK Treasury Bond. Money markets expect interest rates to hit this level in August. However, traders are speculating when and how the Bank of England will introduce this monetary policy given the risk of a recurrence of the epidemic threatening the economic outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56705394c28562ca7d5f6de663c3cca\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>epilogue</p><p>As the core counter-cyclical adjustment tool to hedge economic fluctuations, monetary policy is often the most powerful means; At the same time, price stability and economic growth can't have it both ways in the short term, like \"fish\" and \"bear's cake\". In 2021, after flooding and in the context of supply shortages, soaring inflation will inevitably follow; High inflation may be a medium-and long-term problem. Next, the task of stabilizing prices has been put on the desks of major policy makers.</p><p>In 2022, it is time for the market to get out of the \"good night\" of monetary easing. The hot economy cannot last forever. At the end of 2021, major central banks have already kicked off tightening policies. Unless the \"black swan\" of COVID-19 pandemic deals a severe blow to the economic recovery, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. With the withdrawal of loose stimulus policies and the progress of the economic cycle, the growth prospects of major economies may face greater pressure next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/631838.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78832e6d293703c403865ad10f135ee6","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4539":"次新股","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4023":"应用软件","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","APP":"AppLovin Corporation","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/631838.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2195613462","content_text":"新冠疫情无疑仍是2021年的主基调，带来的供应链问题成为全球经济的瓶颈，同时经济开放带来需求的爆发式增长加剧了供不应求的问题，下半年大宗商品价格的飙升进一步助涨了物价。毫无疑问地，通胀成为了今年全球货币政策的核心话题。火热的通胀令人心忧，众多央行不可避免地要给物价“降温”。2021年通胀成“烫手山芋”对于全球各大央行来说，物价飙升是2021年无法回避的“烫手山芋”。但各大央行的困境在于，不能完全确定通胀在多大程度上是由封锁结束后需求的复苏推动的，又在多大程度上是由港口堵塞、材料和工人短缺造成的供应紧张导致的。提高利率将使需求放缓，对缓解供应瓶颈作用不大，而需求却是帮助世界摆脱疫情导致的经济衰退的重要推动力。如果供应短缺随着贸易恢复正常而缓解，政策最终可能会过于紧缩，从而扼杀经济复苏。因此，今年大多数时间，许多央行认为，由于经济复苏的速度和供应链瓶颈，“通胀是一个暂时现象”;一些央行选择静观其变，以期供应链问题解决后，通胀飙升压力能得到缓解。但当大规模财政刺激和宽松货币政策的短期刺激效应消失之后，伴随着能源危机，疫情致使供应链失衡和劳动力短缺，供不应求让全球通胀高企愈演愈烈。而且，上升的物价正在逐步引导通胀预期稳步上升，各大央行只能纷纷开始收紧钱袋抑制过热的经济。央行应对通胀以下是智通财经APP整理的2021年全球主要央行货币政策动向：美联储：逐渐放弃“通胀暂时论”，Taper先行，加息预期强烈今年大部分时间，大多数美联储官员一直坚持的观点是，目前的价格上涨是过渡性的，供应链瓶颈和其他因素可能会消退。但随着美国经济和就业取得“实质性”进展，而且通胀高企逐步嵌入预期也让美联储越来越难以坚持“暂时论”，进而鹰姿尽显。上半年，美联储货币政策转向的压力就开始向市场释放，但美联储一再坚持不会提前进行货币政策的转向;上半年美联储政策基调仍偏鸽，总体按兵不动，对经济较乐观，并淡化通胀风险。自4月会议以后，随着新冠疫苗接种率的提升，美国经济修复进一步提速，美联储在声明中强调了疫苗接种对疫情和经济的帮助，并对美国经济前景表示乐观。由于经济表现超预期，美联储于6月会议释放转向信号，开始初步讨论Taper计划。进入下半年，美联储政策转鹰气息越来越浓。智通财经APP曾报道，美联储官员在7月27-28日的会议上制定了可能在年底前放缓每月购债步伐的计划，这是新冠疫情爆发后美联储首次在会议上明确讨论缩减购债。9月份，官员们首次讨论了减码的具体路径;与会者还提到了通胀的上行风险，称通胀水平居于高位的时间将可能持续得比预期久。11月4日，美联储启动了Taper计划，于11月开始缩减，并将于2022年6月结束;将每月资产购买规模减少150亿美元。值得注意的是，该行于11月仍然没有对通胀问题放弃使用“过渡性”这个有争议的词。但是自11月的FOMC会议以来，数据显示美国的通胀率以30多年来的最高速度运行。12月1日，鲍威尔突然转鹰：“我认为现在可能是一个好时机，放弃‘暂时性’这一描述。”他同时强调，将在控制通胀方面保持警惕。美国CPI年率很显然，鲍威尔12月初的鹰派发言是为12月16日的利率决议做准备。12月政策会议上，美联储加快了结束QE的时间表，并承诺在明年3月前结束大规模的债券购买计划，而不是原计划的6月，以便为提早加息作准备。美联储点阵图显示，所有委员均预计美联储将在2022年开始加息，具体为2022年和2023年分别加息三次。委员们对政策举措持鹰派态度，坚定地倾向于加息。在18名FOMC委员中，只有6名预计明年加息不到3次，且没有任何委员看到明年利率保持当前近零水平。鲍威尔认为美联储需要将通胀视为更紧迫的风险，并上调了21年和22年的通胀前景。他还称美联储有可能在实现充分就业之前加息，而11月时他曾表示，美国就业市场可能会在明年年中之前就获得足够的改善，可以认为将达成“最大就业”。换言之，明年6月之前加息是可能的。欧洲央行：中期通胀压力小，宽松政策仍为主基调尽管今年欧元区物价高企，但欧洲央行仍保持鸽派立场，因为欧元区长期通胀压力依然疲弱。欧洲央行一直以来也是“通胀暂时论”的坚定支持者，其政策核心在于，调整其宽松政策灵活性以迅速满足经济增长需求。上半年，超宽松货币政策仍是欧洲央行的主基调。进入下半年，在通胀飙升和经济强劲增长的背景下，9月份，欧洲央行虽然决定维持紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)规模和资产购买计划(APP)的购债速度不变;但计划放缓第四季度的紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)购债速度。同样地，欧洲央行10月会议上仍坚持高通胀在很大程度上仍被认为是暂时的，但目前的价格“驼峰”将比以前认为的更持久，增加了工资开始调整并使价格增长保持在高位的风险。鹰鸽双方都认为明年加息为时尚早，而分歧在于以购买债券的形式继续实施刺激措施的速度。12月16日，相比于同一天公布利率决议的美联储和英国央行，欧洲央行的立场非常“鸽派”，该央行似乎只是换了个方式继续QE，希望引导欧元区经济体安稳度过经济增长难关。欧洲央行表示，因新冠疫情而采取的紧急购买计划(PEPP)下季度将被缩减，并预计将于2022年3月结束，但随时有可能恢复PEPP计划。不过，量化宽松货币政策并未就此划上句号，欧洲政策制定者计划从明年第二季度开始，常规债券购买计划(APP)将增至每月400亿欧元，随后在接下来三个月里缩减至300亿欧元，最后在10月恢复至200亿欧元的常态化规模。此外，12月底有官员发出加息信号。12月22日，欧洲央行管委会成员、奥地利央行行长霍尔茨曼(Robert Holzmann)称，“2022年将以数据驱动的方式决定是否暂停购债。在极端情况下，有可能将在明年年底或2023年初进行加息，与美国第三次加息的时间大致相同。”英国央行：变幻莫测的“不靠谱男友”，首家加息主要央行今年英国央行大部分时间还是以支持经济复苏的宽松政策为主，其也坚持认为通胀将是暂时的;但随着形势的发展，英国央行为应对日益严重的通胀压力，还是扛不住火热的物价而成为首个加息的主要央行。而使英国央行区别于其他央行的是其政策制定者的变幻莫测，常常令市场措手不及，这成为英国央行的一个标志。该行行长贝利被记者称为“不靠谱男友二号”，前行长卡尼也曾被戏称为“不靠谱男友”，这主要还是因为英国央行跟市场的沟通太差劲，显得英国央行政策制定者总是言行不一，在鹰鸽立场中反复横跳。9月23日，据利率决议，英国央行官员一致投票决定将主要利率与购债规模不变;其核心预期是，目前的全球成本压力将被证明是暂时的。但在8月份，英国通胀率同比增长3.2%，创自1997年有记录以来的最大增幅，大大超过了该行2%的目标。虽然在9月份，英国通胀意外放缓，但分析师预计这对消费者而言只是一次短暂的喘息。英国10月份CPI涨幅达到4.2%;一些英国央行决策者，如行长贝利和著名鹰派人士迈克尔•桑德斯已暗示支持立即加息。英国CPI年率但11月4日，英国央行再次维持基准利率和购债规模不变，与许多投资者认为英国央行将成为疫情爆发后第一家加息的主要央行的预期背道而驰。许多投资者抨击该行没有如预期般加息，与市场沟通太差。英国11月通胀率创下10年来新高，CPI同比上涨5.1%，远高于英国央行2%的目标值。尽管物价高企，得益于11月的情况，仍有大部分投资者押注英国央行不会加息。但是12月16日，英国央行终究还是扛不住通胀压力，而将基准利率由0.1%上调至0.25%，令市场大感意外，这是该行自新冠疫情以来首次上调基准利率。英国央行也因此成为了全球三大央行中首家加息的央行。其他央行：加息抑通胀成主流随着各国经济从去年的衰退中逐渐复苏，通胀情况似乎超出了决策者的预期，各大央行的立场纷纷转向;大部分央行甚至已经采取了积极措施，开始撤出货币刺激措施，以避免潜在的通胀预期脱锚。日本央行虽然仍维持超宽松货币政策，但为应对新冠疫情而推出的企业融资政策到期后将部分退出，且大幅缩减今年ETF购买量，或将降至2012年以来最低水平。挪威央行和新西兰联储是年内率先加息的两家G10央行，都已加息两次，明年很可能继续加息;挪威也是疫情后首个加息的发达经济体。对于其他地区而言，拉美央行成为了年内全球加息阵营的主力军;巴西央行是年内加息次数最多、幅度也最大的主要央行，在最近一次会议上把利率上调150个基点至9.25%。与拉美国家央行高举加息旗帜形成鲜明对比的，则是主要亚洲央行年内的风平浪静。在新兴市场，所有经济体的加权政策利率在最近几个月从4.5%上升到5%，21家央行中有10家加息，3家降息(印度尼西亚、土耳其和北马其顿)。2022年展望：各大央行“收水”似成定局随着世界上各大央行在2021年里的最后一次会议结束，市场对于央行的态度开始有了清晰的认识。各大央行政策转向似乎体现了他们试图与疫情共存。欧洲央行行长拉加德表示:“许多人已经接种了疫苗，加强针运动也在加速。社会已变得更善于应对疫情浪潮及其带来的限制，这减轻了疫情对经济的影响。”更重要的是，随着央行官员对大范围通货膨胀了解的加深，他们对新病毒的爆发如何影响经济产生了不同的看法。在疫情初期，人们关注的焦点是封锁会抑制消费需求，而宽松的货币政策可能有助于提振消费需求。 现在，官员们的担心转为防疫限制会阻碍商品的供应和运输，从而推高价格，这也强化了加息的理由。目前，大部分央行开始对高通胀感到不安，2022年收紧货币刺激措施似乎只是时间问题。在发达经济体中，所有国家的加权政策利率在最近几个月从0.07%的历史低点小幅上升至0.14%，17家央行中有6家上调了利率。在疫情之前，发达经济加权政策利率为0.8%，相比之下仍有很大的上升空间。而在新兴市场中，新冠疫情之前，新兴市场加权政策利率为5.5%，仍有一定的加息空间。除非新冠疫情阻碍经济复苏，否则政策利率上升的趋势将在2022年继续下去。此外，美联储于明年加入加息的行列可能会给新兴市场的货币政策带来一定的压力。其中，美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行作为全球货币政策的“风向标”，其政策取向无疑将引领明年全球货币政策的主流。因此，市场对这三大央行也是给予了无比多的关注。美联储：结束Taper已板上钉钉，加息只是快慢问题美国火热的经济正在进一步推高其物价上涨，而且除了能源价格高涨之外，住房价格和服务业成本等走高也反映了美国物价上升具有一定“粘性”。美联储最青睐的通胀指标——核心PCE物价指数指标也持续位于2%目标之上。因此，除非明年疫情再度严重冲击美国经济，不然3月份结束Taper已经是板上钉钉的事情了。市场更加关注的是美联储明年何时加息、加息几次。美联储12月的最新利率点阵图显示，以一次加息25个基点估算，所有与会的18位官员均预计美联储明年将加息。其中，只有一位预计明年加息1次，5位预计明年加息2次，10位预计明年加息3次，2位预计明年加息4次，中值预期落在了明年加息3次之上。以史为鉴，美联储利率点阵图本身就向来以多变而著称，当前的预期并不等于明年的实际行动。不过，根据“联储观察(Fedwatch)”，市场预计美联储可能最早会在明年3月份进行加息，加息一次概率达到53.8%。除此之外，市场预计美联储于明年中旬加息的概率达到91.21%，其中预计加息两次的概率达到41.2%。芝商所FedWatch工具利用30天联邦基金期货定价资料，用以分析联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)未来会议调整利率的可能性。欧洲央行：维持利率不变，换个方式QE在12月的会议上，欧央行行长拉加德称“不太可能在2022年加息”。而且从欧洲央行利率决议和官员发言来看，欧洲央行2022年虽然将结束PEPP，但仍然将保持足够规模购债的灵活性以满足经济增长需求，而且欧洲央行也还计划到期债券的本金再投资。12月会议上，欧洲央行官员对欧元区2023年和2024年的通胀预测仍低于2%。相对美国来说，欧元区的通胀风险确实更低。一是因为欧元区没有像美国那样大规模地发放政府补助，居民收入存在缺口，消费支出肯定不及美国那么强劲。二是因为欧元区整体货币供给扩张的高峰在10%-15%，而美国已经高达25%以上。另外，欧元区的工资增速仍然温和，尚未出现像美国那样的工资加速上涨的情况。因而供给瓶颈是构成欧洲通胀上行风险的主要原因。而且就欧洲央行而言，它还必须考虑到它为之制定政策的欧元区内部存在的重大分歧。任何大规模撤出危机支持的举措，有可能给一些成员国带来债务危机，比如，对意大利等经济体高债务负担的可持续性造成影响。不过，有一些市场参与者担心欧元区物价上涨将持续，已经开始关注欧洲央行2023年政策正常化的可能性;目前，有投资者押注欧洲央行可能在2022年底加息15个基点。英国央行：或加息100个基点，达到关键利率将触发QT根据英镑隔夜指数掉期，市场目前预计，即使在Omicron变种带来的疫情风险之下，由于劳动力市场推动通胀，英国央行到2022年12月将加息100个基点(即关键利率由0.25%升至1.25%)，届时关键利率将自2009年以来首次位于1%水平以上。其次，如果英国央行在明年2月的会议上将利率升至0.5%的关键水平，就可能启动量化紧缩(QT)，即它将停止将到期票据收益进行再投资，从而在债务到期时自动减少其投资组合规模。其次，英国央行的更激进举措将意味着，在利率达到1%之后，可能会积极出售英国国债。货币市场预计，利率将在8月份触及这一水平。不过，鉴于疫情复发威胁到经济前景的风险，交易员们正在揣测英国央行何时以及如何引入这一货币政策。结语货币政策作为对冲经济波动的最核心逆周期调节工具，往往是最有力的手段;与此同时，物价稳定与经济增长在短期内就如“鱼”与“熊掌”一般不可兼得。2021年，在大水漫灌之后，又是在供应短缺的背景下，通胀飙升不可避免地随之而来;通胀高企或是中长期问题。接下来，稳定物价任务已经被摆到各大政策制定者的办公桌上。2022年市场是时候走出货币宽松的“良夜”，炙手可热的经济不可能永远持续，2021年底各大央行已经拉开了收紧政策的序幕。除非新冠疫情这只“黑天鹅”严重打击经济复苏，否则政策利率上升的趋势将在2022年继续下去。随着宽松刺激政策的退出以及经济周期进程，明年各大经济体增长前景可能将面临较大压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"SH":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"APP":1,"TNmain":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"FOMC":1,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009339494,"gmtCreate":1640487001356,"gmtModify":1676533522974,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009339494","repostId":"1181661636","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181661636","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640329680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181661636?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-24 15:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! U.S. stocks may face two major risks in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181661636","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"1990年至2020年，美股在四季度共经历了6次回调（表1）。而2021年11月以来，在疫情反复、通胀预期升温的背景下，美股恐再次陷入调整的“怪圈”。本文重点复盘了与2021年经济基本面有相似之处的2018年，以史为鉴，展望2022年美股可能面临的风险。2022年在美国货币政策紧缩转向的市场预期下，警惕来自高估值、长久期成长股方面的市场波动。","content":"<p><b>From 1990 to 2020, U.S. stocks experienced a total of 6 corrections in the fourth quarter (Table 1). Since November 2021, against the background of repeated epidemics and rising inflation expectations, U.S. stocks may once again fall into a \"strange circle\" of adjustment. This article focuses on review's 2018, which has similarities with the economic fundamentals of 2021. Taking history as a mirror, we look forward to the risks that U.S. stocks may face in 2022.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d258ab5cd33d118fefb1aa1ee2c897a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>An analysis of the performance of various industries in the six U.S. stock callbacks from 1990 to 2018 shows that the performance of the defensive sector has been verified, and the medical sector has excess returns relative to the S&P 500 index in each callback. In addition, public utilities and must-have consumption have also achieved good results, and have gained excess returns in 5 of the 6 market corrections.</p><p><b>Judging from the causes of the correction in U.S. stocks in the fourth quarter, except for the policy side of the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes in 2018, other causes were all events (such as the European debt crisis, the Lehman incident, etc.).</b></p><p>There are similarities between the economic fundamentals of 2018 and the situation today (November-December 2021): the job market is recovering positively but inflation is overshooting. In order to deal with inflation in 2018, the Federal Reserve conducted four rate hike and one rate hike in the first and second quarters respectively, which did not have a significant impact on the stock market. However, in the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve conducted two consecutive rate hike, causing interest rates to reach the highest level since 2008. The speed of rate hike was too fast, causing the S&P 500 index to fall by nearly 20% in the fourth quarter (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c23e4d0395f4802aea9624fc484a378\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the end of November this year, U.S. stocks have experienced two waves of declines (Figure 2):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc52976d2afa81b30f6ae117961c6ae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The first wave was caused by the epidemic.</b>On November 24, South Africa reported the highly infectious variant strain Omicron to WHO; On November 26, the WHO announced that Omicron was listed as a \"mutant strain of concern\". On that day, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.3%, breaking the upward trend since October.</p><p><b>The second wave is caused by the epidemic and the expected rise in rate hike.</b>In December, Powell and other Fed officials successively acknowledged the non-transitory nature of inflation (Table 2) and the dot plot of the interest rate meeting turned hawkish. In addition, Omicron replaced Delta as the mainstream new coronavirus strain in the United States and caused a surge in the number of new cases (Figure 3-Figure 4). Under the combined effect of the two, U.S. stocks continued to fall from December 16 to 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7ceccab81143af9eb11a4f633fd961\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e68b488884d9b9c8ed765f69d27f8b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69bfee8850598eebeba94ad399880e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sectors, defensive healthcare and utilities have outperformed cyclical sectors in the two waves of declines in the broader market since November 2021, while in the second wave of declines, must-have consumption rebounded strongly (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d947f2aef1170c69c66a1b303344d33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking forward to 2022, U.S. stocks will still face two major risks: repeated epidemics and excessive rate hike.</b>However, as shown in Figure 6, the impact of several waves of epidemics on U.S. stocks is marginally diminishing. As the sensitivity of policies to the epidemic response increases,<b>We expect that the impact of repeated epidemics on U.S. stocks in the future will be limited, but we need to be alert to the risk of corrections caused by inflation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636ba71a6892bd9f8533f91d2b33f33a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>High inflation in the United States has already suppressed growth stocks.</b>Since the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has adopted an extremely loose monetary policy to support the economy. However, since June 2021, inflation has continued to hit new highs, forcing the Federal Reserve to announce an accelerated taper at the December interest rate meeting, and the dot plot's guidance for the number and rhythm of rate hike in 2022. hawkish turn. When interest rate expectations and real interest rates rise, the increase in discount rates leads to the suppression of high-valued and long-term growth stocks. As Figure 7 shows, U.S. growth stocks underperformed value stocks from November 1 to December 20.<b>In 2022, under the market expectation of a shift to tightening monetary policy in the United States, be wary of market fluctuations from high valuations and long-term growth stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5176913de61559336af90fa6f90f8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The epidemic spreads out of control and U.S. inflation soars out of control</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! U.S. stocks may face two major risks in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! U.S. stocks may face two major risks in 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 15:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>From 1990 to 2020, U.S. stocks experienced a total of 6 corrections in the fourth quarter (Table 1). Since November 2021, against the background of repeated epidemics and rising inflation expectations, U.S. stocks may once again fall into a \"strange circle\" of adjustment. This article focuses on review's 2018, which has similarities with the economic fundamentals of 2021. Taking history as a mirror, we look forward to the risks that U.S. stocks may face in 2022.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d258ab5cd33d118fefb1aa1ee2c897a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>An analysis of the performance of various industries in the six U.S. stock callbacks from 1990 to 2018 shows that the performance of the defensive sector has been verified, and the medical sector has excess returns relative to the S&P 500 index in each callback. In addition, public utilities and must-have consumption have also achieved good results, and have gained excess returns in 5 of the 6 market corrections.</p><p><b>Judging from the causes of the correction in U.S. stocks in the fourth quarter, except for the policy side of the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes in 2018, other causes were all events (such as the European debt crisis, the Lehman incident, etc.).</b></p><p>There are similarities between the economic fundamentals of 2018 and the situation today (November-December 2021): the job market is recovering positively but inflation is overshooting. In order to deal with inflation in 2018, the Federal Reserve conducted four rate hike and one rate hike in the first and second quarters respectively, which did not have a significant impact on the stock market. However, in the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve conducted two consecutive rate hike, causing interest rates to reach the highest level since 2008. The speed of rate hike was too fast, causing the S&P 500 index to fall by nearly 20% in the fourth quarter (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c23e4d0395f4802aea9624fc484a378\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the end of November this year, U.S. stocks have experienced two waves of declines (Figure 2):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc52976d2afa81b30f6ae117961c6ae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The first wave was caused by the epidemic.</b>On November 24, South Africa reported the highly infectious variant strain Omicron to WHO; On November 26, the WHO announced that Omicron was listed as a \"mutant strain of concern\". On that day, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.3%, breaking the upward trend since October.</p><p><b>The second wave is caused by the epidemic and the expected rise in rate hike.</b>In December, Powell and other Fed officials successively acknowledged the non-transitory nature of inflation (Table 2) and the dot plot of the interest rate meeting turned hawkish. In addition, Omicron replaced Delta as the mainstream new coronavirus strain in the United States and caused a surge in the number of new cases (Figure 3-Figure 4). Under the combined effect of the two, U.S. stocks continued to fall from December 16 to 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7ceccab81143af9eb11a4f633fd961\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e68b488884d9b9c8ed765f69d27f8b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69bfee8850598eebeba94ad399880e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sectors, defensive healthcare and utilities have outperformed cyclical sectors in the two waves of declines in the broader market since November 2021, while in the second wave of declines, must-have consumption rebounded strongly (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d947f2aef1170c69c66a1b303344d33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking forward to 2022, U.S. stocks will still face two major risks: repeated epidemics and excessive rate hike.</b>However, as shown in Figure 6, the impact of several waves of epidemics on U.S. stocks is marginally diminishing. As the sensitivity of policies to the epidemic response increases,<b>We expect that the impact of repeated epidemics on U.S. stocks in the future will be limited, but we need to be alert to the risk of corrections caused by inflation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636ba71a6892bd9f8533f91d2b33f33a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>High inflation in the United States has already suppressed growth stocks.</b>Since the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has adopted an extremely loose monetary policy to support the economy. However, since June 2021, inflation has continued to hit new highs, forcing the Federal Reserve to announce an accelerated taper at the December interest rate meeting, and the dot plot's guidance for the number and rhythm of rate hike in 2022. hawkish turn. When interest rate expectations and real interest rates rise, the increase in discount rates leads to the suppression of high-valued and long-term growth stocks. As Figure 7 shows, U.S. growth stocks underperformed value stocks from November 1 to December 20.<b>In 2022, under the market expectation of a shift to tightening monetary policy in the United States, be wary of market fluctuations from high valuations and long-term growth stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5176913de61559336af90fa6f90f8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The epidemic spreads out of control and U.S. inflation soars out of control</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/X0mqAu-uDW2IYCqHkNfXhQ\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/X0mqAu-uDW2IYCqHkNfXhQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181661636","content_text":"1990年至2020年，美股在四季度共经历了6次回调（表1）。而2021年11月以来，在疫情反复、通胀预期升温的背景下，美股恐再次陷入调整的“怪圈”。本文重点复盘了与2021年经济基本面有相似之处的2018年，以史为鉴，展望2022年美股可能面临的风险。\n\n对1990年至2018年6次美股回调中各行业表现的分析显示，防御型板块的表现得到了验证，医疗板块在每次的回调中相对于标普500指数都有超额收益。此外，公用事业、必选消费也取得了不错的成绩，在6次市场回调中均有5次收获超额收益。\n从四季度美股回调的起因来看，除了2018年为美联储政策失误的政策面所致，其他起因均为事件面（如欧债危机、雷曼事件等）。\n2018年的经济基本面和如今（2021年11月至12月）的情况有相似之处：就业市场复苏向好但通胀超调。2018年为了应对通胀，美联储共加息4次，一、二季度分别加息一次，未对股市产生显著影响，然而四季度，美联储连续加息2次，使得利率达到2008年以来的最高水平，加息速度过快导致四季度标普500指数跌幅近20%（图1）。\n\n而今年11月末以来，美股经历了两波下跌（图2）：\n\n第一波为疫情所致。11月24日，南非向世卫组织报告高传染性的变种毒株奥密克戎；11月26日，世卫组织宣布将奥密克戎列为“关切变异株”，当日标普500指数跌幅2.3%，打破了10月以来的上行态势。\n第二波为疫情叠加加息预期升温所致。12月鲍威尔等美联储官员陆续表态承认通胀的非暂时性（表2）并且议息会议点阵图鹰派转向，此外奥密克戎取代德尔塔成为美国的主流新冠毒株并造成新增病例数激增（图3-图4）。二者叠加作用下，12月16至18日美股连续下挫。\n\n行业方面，防御型的医疗和公用事业在2021年11月以来大盘的两波下跌中跑赢周期性行业，而在第二波下跌中，必选消费强劲反弹（图5）。\n\n展望2022年，美股仍将面临疫情反复以及过快加息两大主要风险。不过，如图6所示，几波疫情对于美股的冲击是边际递减的，随着政策对于疫情反应灵敏度的提升，我们预计未来疫情反复对于美股的影响有限，但是需要警惕通胀带来的回调风险。\n\n美国高通胀对于成长股的压制已经显现。疫情以来美联储采取极度宽松的货币政策支持经济，然而2021年6月以来，通胀持续创新高，迫使美联储在12月议息会议上宣布加速taper，以及点阵图对于2022年加息次数和节奏指引的鹰派转向。而当利率预期及实际利率上升时，折现率的上调导致高估值、长久期的成长股受到压制。如图7所示， 11月1日至12月20日，美国成长股跑输价值股。2022年在美国货币政策紧缩转向的市场预期下，警惕来自高估值、长久期成长股方面的市场波动。\n\n风险提示：疫情扩散失控，美国通胀飙升失控","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009075242,"gmtCreate":1640401642411,"gmtModify":1676533519649,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009075242","repostId":"1148883897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9095136982,"gmtCreate":1644849246279,"gmtModify":1676533967550,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095136982","repostId":"1161517578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161517578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金宏观研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金宏观","id":"1083231139","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc"},"pubTimestamp":1644796491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161517578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-14 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: Fed tightening, menacing this time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161517578","media":"中金宏观","summary":"最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In January, the CPI data of the United States exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. After the data was released, the market's expectation of the Fed's tightening has risen significantly. The probability of raising interest rates by 50 bp in March reflected by the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of expected interest rate hikes in 2022 has also reached seven. However, judging from the situation of the stock market and bond market, investors are still hesitating whether this Fed tightening is just \"loud thunder and little rain\".</p><p><b>We believe that the market is still underestimating the strength of this Fed tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are used to regarding the last round of Fed tightening cycle (2015-2018) as the reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also mentioned after the interest rate meeting in January, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's the difference this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals when rate hike opened up, the \"initial conditions\".</b>We combed the initial conditions of six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous rounds, especially compared with the previous round. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>In terms of economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2% year-on-year, while this time the GDP growth rate before rate hike was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999 and 2004. The GDP growth rate before rate hike all exceeded 4%. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, while the current unemployment rate has fallen to a record low of 4%, which is closer to the 1999 interest rate hike cycle.</p><p>►<b>In terms of inflation,</b>When the interest rate was raised in 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in the United States was only 2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI was only 0.5% (because of the decline of oil prices). Not only was there no upward risk of inflation, but there was even the possibility of deflation. At that time, the Fed chose rate hike more out of \"trust\" in future inflation rise. Officials believed that the falling unemployment rate would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), so they adopted a \"precautionary\" rate hike. On the other hand, at present, the growth rate of both the overall and core CPI is much higher than that of 2015, and even higher than that of any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has really encountered the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of rate hike rhythm,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Fed followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After the opening of rate hike, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. This time, by contrast, the Fed doesn't have as much time to wait. In the second half of last year, the Fed delayed its exit from easing, missing the best time to exit. Looking ahead, the number of Fed rate hike this year is likely to be more than three times, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 bp is not even ruled out. We chart the path of this rate hike according to current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than the last rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In financial markets,</b>The last round of monetary tightening was slow, coupled with the relatively reasonable valuation of U.S. stocks, so that the stock market did not adjust too much, and the whole situation was \"calm\". At present, the valuation of U.S. stocks is relatively high, and it is more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially the rise of interest rates. It does not seem easy to get through the whole rate hike process smoothly. In addition, under the low interest rate environment after the pandemic, the debt of the non-financial corporate sector in the United States expanded rapidly, and the ratio of debt to GDP rose from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it dropped slightly in the second quarter, it remained at a historically high level. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike is opened, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>All in all, this round of Fed tightening may be menacing, and simply extrapolating the previous round of tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the strength of tightening.</b>The current U.S. economy is like a car moving at high speed, and it is difficult to slow down without the brakes, we noted in our report \"Inflation explodes, the Fed should tighten as soon as possible\". Looking ahead, the Fed should act as soon as possible, such as raising interest rates by 50 bp in March, and hinting at more rate hike during the year. In addition to this, the Fed should also turn on the \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective way to achieve this goal is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect to start the \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter, but we don't rule out the possibility of advancing to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk situation, it is not excluded that the 10-year US Treasury yields will break through 2.5%, and there is still room for adjustment in U.S. stocks.</b>After the epidemic subsides, the economic recovery of the United States is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may resonate and recover. If the Federal Reserve is \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and its attitude is firm, the US Treasury yields may go up further. But on the other hand, rate hike is too aggressive or triggers market worries about medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and the intensification of geopolitical shocks may also curb risk appetite and limit the upside of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low interest rate environment in the past decade, the valuation of some stocks has expanded greatly, and the stock price has increased more. If liquidity tightening, risk-free interest rates rise, it will adversely affect the valuation of these stocks. Recently, although U.S. stocks have experienced a wave of adjustment, there may still be room for adjustment in the stock market when the upward trend of the US Treasury yields is not over.</p><p><b>It is commodities that are performing better at this stage and are less affected by tightening.</b>First, the Fed tightening itself is a confirmation of strong economic growth in favor of commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed down significantly in the past two years, and after the pandemic, capital expenditure is expected to usher in a synchronized global rebound, further increasing the demand for commodities (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: Step 3 for Global Recovery\"). Of course, Fed tightening will lead to higher interest rates and curb corporate investment, but this process will be time-lagged and may not happen in the first half of this year. Anyway,<b>We believe that the monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve may become the main line of global asset price pricing this year, and investors must not underestimate the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macro Data & Economic Events</p><p><b>Macro data:</b>The US trade balance in December was-80.7 billion US dollars, higher than expectations of-83 billion US dollars; The monthly growth rate of wholesale sales in December was 0.2%, lower than the expected 1.2%; In January, the annual growth rate of unseasonally adjusted CPI was 7.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 7.3%; After seasonal adjustment in January, the monthly growth rate of CPI was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index was 97.1 in January, down from expectations of 97.5; In the week to February 5th, the number of initial unemployment claims was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February was 61.7, which was lower than the expectation of 67.5.</p><p>The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in February was 16.6, higher than expectations of 15.2. The revised annual quarter-on-quarter growth rate of UK GDP in the fourth quarter was 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%; In December, the monthly GDP growth rate of three months was 1%, lower than the expected 1.1%; In December, the monthly growth rate of industrial output was 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On 7 February, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech indicating that inflation risks are rising, while hinting at a \"gradual shift\" in central bank monetary policy [2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained \"open-minded\" to central bank digital currencies [3]. On February 10, Mester, the 2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President, delivered a speech, saying that every Fed interest rate meeting this year is likely to be rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank's balance sheet [4]. On February 11, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected a \"steady\" rate hike by the Fed and hoped that the Fed would return interest rates to pre-pandemic levels \"relatively quickly\" [5].</p><p><b>Watch This Week: Macro Data & Economic Events</b></p><p><b>Macro data:</b>On Tuesday, the monthly month-on-month growth rate of PPI in the United States in January and the manufacturing index of the New York Fed in February were announced; Revised annual year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of the euro zone, quarter-on-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted employment in the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted trade balance in December, and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in February. On Wednesday, it announced the monthly growth rate of commercial inventory in the United States in December, the monthly growth rate of retail sales in January, the monthly growth rate of import price index in January, the monthly growth rate of industrial output in January, and the NAHB real estate market index in February; Monthly month-on-month growth rate of industrial output in the euro zone in December. On Thursday, it announced the annualized value of the total number of new housing starts in the United States in January, the total number of construction permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index in February, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the week to February 12th. On Friday, it announced the monthly month-on-month growth rate of the leading indicators of the Conference Board in the United States in January, and the annualized value of the total number of existing home sales in January; Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account in December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting to review and decide on the lending ratio and discount rate; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee votes on Powell's nomination for Fed chair, while also voting on the nominations of four other Fed officials; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; The European Central Bank publishes its Economic Bulletin. Friday 2022 FOMC voting committee, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting committee, Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting committee, Chicago Fed President Evans and Federal Reserve Governor Waller respectively spoke on the U.S. economic and monetary policy outlook. Saturday FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, New York Fed President<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an Economic Outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: Fed tightening, menacing this time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: Fed tightening, menacing this time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083231139\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-14 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In January, the CPI data of the United States exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. After the data was released, the market's expectation of the Fed's tightening has risen significantly. The probability of raising interest rates by 50 bp in March reflected by the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of expected interest rate hikes in 2022 has also reached seven. However, judging from the situation of the stock market and bond market, investors are still hesitating whether this Fed tightening is just \"loud thunder and little rain\".</p><p><b>We believe that the market is still underestimating the strength of this Fed tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are used to regarding the last round of Fed tightening cycle (2015-2018) as the reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also mentioned after the interest rate meeting in January, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's the difference this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals when rate hike opened up, the \"initial conditions\".</b>We combed the initial conditions of six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous rounds, especially compared with the previous round. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>In terms of economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2% year-on-year, while this time the GDP growth rate before rate hike was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999 and 2004. The GDP growth rate before rate hike all exceeded 4%. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, while the current unemployment rate has fallen to a record low of 4%, which is closer to the 1999 interest rate hike cycle.</p><p>►<b>In terms of inflation,</b>When the interest rate was raised in 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in the United States was only 2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI was only 0.5% (because of the decline of oil prices). Not only was there no upward risk of inflation, but there was even the possibility of deflation. At that time, the Fed chose rate hike more out of \"trust\" in future inflation rise. Officials believed that the falling unemployment rate would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), so they adopted a \"precautionary\" rate hike. On the other hand, at present, the growth rate of both the overall and core CPI is much higher than that of 2015, and even higher than that of any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has really encountered the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of rate hike rhythm,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Fed followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After the opening of rate hike, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. This time, by contrast, the Fed doesn't have as much time to wait. In the second half of last year, the Fed delayed its exit from easing, missing the best time to exit. Looking ahead, the number of Fed rate hike this year is likely to be more than three times, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 bp is not even ruled out. We chart the path of this rate hike according to current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than the last rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In financial markets,</b>The last round of monetary tightening was slow, coupled with the relatively reasonable valuation of U.S. stocks, so that the stock market did not adjust too much, and the whole situation was \"calm\". At present, the valuation of U.S. stocks is relatively high, and it is more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially the rise of interest rates. It does not seem easy to get through the whole rate hike process smoothly. In addition, under the low interest rate environment after the pandemic, the debt of the non-financial corporate sector in the United States expanded rapidly, and the ratio of debt to GDP rose from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it dropped slightly in the second quarter, it remained at a historically high level. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike is opened, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>All in all, this round of Fed tightening may be menacing, and simply extrapolating the previous round of tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the strength of tightening.</b>The current U.S. economy is like a car moving at high speed, and it is difficult to slow down without the brakes, we noted in our report \"Inflation explodes, the Fed should tighten as soon as possible\". Looking ahead, the Fed should act as soon as possible, such as raising interest rates by 50 bp in March, and hinting at more rate hike during the year. In addition to this, the Fed should also turn on the \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective way to achieve this goal is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect to start the \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter, but we don't rule out the possibility of advancing to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk situation, it is not excluded that the 10-year US Treasury yields will break through 2.5%, and there is still room for adjustment in U.S. stocks.</b>After the epidemic subsides, the economic recovery of the United States is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may resonate and recover. If the Federal Reserve is \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and its attitude is firm, the US Treasury yields may go up further. But on the other hand, rate hike is too aggressive or triggers market worries about medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and the intensification of geopolitical shocks may also curb risk appetite and limit the upside of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low interest rate environment in the past decade, the valuation of some stocks has expanded greatly, and the stock price has increased more. If liquidity tightening, risk-free interest rates rise, it will adversely affect the valuation of these stocks. Recently, although U.S. stocks have experienced a wave of adjustment, there may still be room for adjustment in the stock market when the upward trend of the US Treasury yields is not over.</p><p><b>It is commodities that are performing better at this stage and are less affected by tightening.</b>First, the Fed tightening itself is a confirmation of strong economic growth in favor of commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed down significantly in the past two years, and after the pandemic, capital expenditure is expected to usher in a synchronized global rebound, further increasing the demand for commodities (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: Step 3 for Global Recovery\"). Of course, Fed tightening will lead to higher interest rates and curb corporate investment, but this process will be time-lagged and may not happen in the first half of this year. Anyway,<b>We believe that the monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve may become the main line of global asset price pricing this year, and investors must not underestimate the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macro Data & Economic Events</p><p><b>Macro data:</b>The US trade balance in December was-80.7 billion US dollars, higher than expectations of-83 billion US dollars; The monthly growth rate of wholesale sales in December was 0.2%, lower than the expected 1.2%; In January, the annual growth rate of unseasonally adjusted CPI was 7.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 7.3%; After seasonal adjustment in January, the monthly growth rate of CPI was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index was 97.1 in January, down from expectations of 97.5; In the week to February 5th, the number of initial unemployment claims was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February was 61.7, which was lower than the expectation of 67.5.</p><p>The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in February was 16.6, higher than expectations of 15.2. The revised annual quarter-on-quarter growth rate of UK GDP in the fourth quarter was 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%; In December, the monthly GDP growth rate of three months was 1%, lower than the expected 1.1%; In December, the monthly growth rate of industrial output was 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On 7 February, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech indicating that inflation risks are rising, while hinting at a \"gradual shift\" in central bank monetary policy [2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained \"open-minded\" to central bank digital currencies [3]. On February 10, Mester, the 2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President, delivered a speech, saying that every Fed interest rate meeting this year is likely to be rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank's balance sheet [4]. On February 11, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected a \"steady\" rate hike by the Fed and hoped that the Fed would return interest rates to pre-pandemic levels \"relatively quickly\" [5].</p><p><b>Watch This Week: Macro Data & Economic Events</b></p><p><b>Macro data:</b>On Tuesday, the monthly month-on-month growth rate of PPI in the United States in January and the manufacturing index of the New York Fed in February were announced; Revised annual year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of the euro zone, quarter-on-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted employment in the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted trade balance in December, and ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in February. On Wednesday, it announced the monthly growth rate of commercial inventory in the United States in December, the monthly growth rate of retail sales in January, the monthly growth rate of import price index in January, the monthly growth rate of industrial output in January, and the NAHB real estate market index in February; Monthly month-on-month growth rate of industrial output in the euro zone in December. On Thursday, it announced the annualized value of the total number of new housing starts in the United States in January, the total number of construction permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index in February, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the week to February 12th. On Friday, it announced the monthly month-on-month growth rate of the leading indicators of the Conference Board in the United States in January, and the annualized value of the total number of existing home sales in January; Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account in December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting to review and decide on the lending ratio and discount rate; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee votes on Powell's nomination for Fed chair, while also voting on the nominations of four other Fed officials; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; The European Central Bank publishes its Economic Bulletin. Friday 2022 FOMC voting committee, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting committee, Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting committee, Chicago Fed President Evans and Federal Reserve Governor Waller respectively spoke on the U.S. economic and monetary policy outlook. Saturday FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, New York Fed President<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an Economic Outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161517578","content_text":"美国1月CPI数据再超预期，同比增速达7.5%，创1982年以来最高水平。数据公布后，市场对美联储紧缩的预期显著抬升，利率期货市场反映的3月加息50 bp的概率已超过90%，2022年加息预期次数也已达到7次。但从股市和债市情况来看，投资者仍在犹豫这次美联储紧缩是否仅是“雷声大，雨点小”。我们认为，市场仍然低估了这次美联储紧缩的力度及其潜在影响。投资者习惯于将上一轮美联储紧缩周期（2015—2018年）看作这次紧缩的参照系，但我们对比后发现，这次与上次非常不同。美联储主席鲍威尔在1月议息会议后也提到，“这次的经济与上一轮紧缩时不一样，我们的政策将会反映出这些差别。”这次的不同点在哪呢？最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。我们梳理了1980年以来6轮加息周期的初始条件，我们发现这次与之前几轮都不一样，尤其与上一轮相比差距最大。具体来看：►经济增长与就业方面，上一轮加息始于2015年12月，当时美国经济并不算强，加息前的一个季度GDP同比增速为2.2%，而这次加息前GDP增速高达5.5%。从这个角度看，这次加息更类似于始于1988、1999、2004年的三轮紧缩，加息前GDP增速均超过4%。就业方面，上一轮开启加息时失业率为5.1%，而当前失业率已降至4%的历史低位，这与1999年加息周期更为接近。►通胀方面，2015年加息时，美国核心CPI同比增速只有2%，整体CPI同比增速仅为0.5%（因为油价下跌），非但没有通胀上行风险，甚至还存在通缩的可能。美联储当时选择加息更多是出于对未来通胀上升的“信任”，官员们相信失业率下降终将推升通胀（即菲利普斯曲线框架），因此采取“预防性”加息。反观当下，无论是整体还是核心CPI增速，都远高于2015年，甚至比1980年以来任何一次加息周期都要更高。可以说，眼下是上世纪七十年代以来，美联储首次真正遭遇高通胀的挑战。► 加息节奏方面，在上一轮加息中，美联储遵循“渐近而可预期”（gradual and predictable）的原则：从Taper到加息，再到缩表，每一步都很谨慎，且每一步之间都相差两年。在加息开启后，第一次加息和第二次加息之间甚至还隔了一年之久。对比之下，这次美联储已经没有那么多时间可以等待。去年下半年，美联储在退出宽松时一拖再拖，错过了最好的退出时机。往前看，今年联储加息的次数大概率多于3次，甚至不排除一次性加息50 bp的可能性。我们根据目前市场的预期描绘了这次加息的路径，结果显示路径更接近于次贷危机前的加息周期，而不是上一轮加息。►金融市场方面，上一轮货币紧缩速度慢，加上美股估值相对合理，使股市并没有过多的调整，整体上“风平浪静”。目前美股估值相对较高，对外部环境变化、尤其是利率上升更敏感，想要平稳度过整个加息过程，似乎并不容易。此外，疫情后的低利率环境下，美国非金融企业部门债务迅速扩张，债务占GDP比例从2019年底的76%升至2021年一季度的85%，虽然二季度小幅回落，但仍处于历史高位。如果加息开启后利率显著上行，部分现金流表现较差的公司或面临信用风险暴露。总而言之，本轮联储紧缩可能来势汹汹，简单以上一轮紧缩周期外推可能会严重低估紧缩的力度。我们在报告《通胀爆表，美联储应尽快紧缩》中指出，当前的美国经济就像一辆高速行驶的汽车，如果不刹车，很难慢下来。往前看，美联储应尽快采取行动，比如在3月加息50 bp，并暗示年内有更多次数的加息。除此之外，美联储还应该开启“缩表”。抑制通胀最可靠办法是推高长端利率，而要达到这一目标，最有效的手段就是“缩表”。我们预计开启“缩表”的时间或在三季度，但也不排除提前到二季度的可能性。风险情形下，不排除10年期美债利率突破2.5%，美股仍有调整空间。疫情消退后，美国经济复苏有望继续深化，供给与需求可能共振复苏，如果美联储在三季度“缩表”且态度比较坚决，美债利率或进一步上行。但另一方面，加息过于激进或引发市场对中期经济放缓甚至衰退的担忧，地缘政治冲击加剧也可能抑制风险偏好，限制长端利率上行空间。股市方面，过去十年低利率环境下，部分股票估值扩张幅度较大，股价涨幅较多。如果流动性收紧，无风险利率抬升，将对这些股票的估值产生不利影响。近期美股虽经历了一波调整，但在美债利率上行未结束的情况下，股市或仍有调整空间。现阶段表现较好、受紧缩影响较小的是大宗商品。首先，美联储紧缩本身就是对经济增长强劲的确认，有利于商品。其次，过去两年全球资本开支明显放缓，疫情过后资本开支有望迎来一次全球性的同步反弹，进一步增加对商品的需求（请参考报告《资本开支：全球复苏的第三步》）。当然，美联储紧缩会导致利率上升，抑制企业投资，但这一过程会有时滞，未必在今年上半年发生。总之，我们认为美联储货币紧缩或成为今年全球资产价格定价的主线，对于紧缩的力度，投资者切不可低估。上周回顾：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：美国12月贸易帐为-807亿美元，高于预期的-830亿美元；12月批发销售月度环比增速0.2%，低于预期的1.2%；1月未季调CPI年度同比增速7.5%，高于预期的7.3%；1月季调后CPI月度环比增速0.6%，高于预期的0.5%；1月NFIB小型企业信心指数97.1，低于预期的97.5；至2月5日当周初请失业金人数为22.3万人，低于预期的23万人；2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.7，低于预期的67.5。欧元区2月Sentix投资者信心指数16.6，高于预期的15.2。英国第四季度GDP年度环比增速修正值为6.5%，高于预期的6.4%；12月三个月GDP月度环比增速1%，低于预期的1.1%；12月工业产出月度环比增速0.3%，高于预期的0.1%；12月制造业产出月度环比增速0.2%，高于预期的0.1%。经济事件：2月7日，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话，表示通胀风险正在上升，同时暗示央行货币政策将“逐步转变”[2]。2月9日，美联储理事鲍曼向社区银行家发表讲话，称其对央行数字货币保持\"开放心态\"[3]。2月10日，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话，表示今年的每一次美联储议息会议都有可能加息，并支持加速缩减央行资产负债表[4]。2月11日，2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金发表讲话，他预计美联储将\"稳步\"加息，并希望美联储\"相对较快\"地将利率恢复到疫情前的水平[5]。本周关注：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：周二公布美国1月PPI月度环比增速，2月纽约联储制造业指数；欧元区第四季度GDP年度同比增速修正值，第四季度季调后就业人数季度环比增速，12月季调后贸易帐，2月ZEW经济景气指数。周三公布美国12月商业库存月度环比增速，1月零售销售月度环比增速，1月进口物价指数月度环比增速，1月工业产出月度环比增速，2月NAHB房产市场指数；欧元区12月工业产出月度环比增速。周四公布美国1月新屋开工总数年化值，1月营建许可总数，2月费城联储制造业指数，至2月12日当周初请失业金人数。周五公布美国1月谘商会领先指标月度环比增速，1月成屋销售总数年化值；欧元区12月季调后经常帐。经济事件：周二美联储理事会召开闭门会议，审查并决定放贷比例和贴现率；美国参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔的美联储主席提名进行投票，同时也对其他四名美联储官员的提名进行投票；欧洲央行行长拉加德参加欧洲议会关于该央行2020年年度报告的辩论。周四美联储FOMC公布货币政策会议纪要；欧洲央行公布经济公报。周五2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯和美联储理事沃勒分别就美国经济和货币政策前景发表讲话。周六FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一次经济展望虚拟活动上做主旨演讲。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004782061,"gmtCreate":1642691484257,"gmtModify":1676533736308,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004782061","repostId":"1177338378","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177338378","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1642658885,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177338378?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 14:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tight externally and loose internally, will Hong Kong stocks benefit the most?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177338378","media":"Wind万得","summary":"1月20中国LPR如期下调，而在3月份美联储议息会议上，美联储降息也是板上钉钉，这样在货币政策上形成了“外紧内松”的局面，港股投资者国内外都有，并且主要成分股的上市公司在去年的一波政策打压下提前杀估值","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 20, China's LPR was lowered as scheduled, and at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was also certain. This has formed a situation of \"external tightness and internal looseness\" in monetary policy. Hong Kong stock investors are both at home and abroad, and the main constituent stocks It is very obvious that listed companies killed their valuations in advance under a wave of policy suppression last year. Can this wave skip the decline of U.S. stocks and directly enjoy the benefits brought by loose domestic liquidity?</p><p>On January 20, the People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the 1-year and 5-year LPR by 10bp and 5bp respectively at the same time. The 1-year LPR was only lowered by 5bp last month, while the 5-year LPR was lowered for the first time since April 2020. On Monday (January 17), the central bank announced that the one-year MLF interest rate would be lowered by 10bp to 2.85%, and the seven-day open market reverse repurchase rate would be lowered by 10bp to 2.10%. Overall, since the beginning of the year, the monetary easing policy has been very obvious.</p><p>On the other hand, there is no doubt about the rate hike of the Federal Reserve this year. The focus now is on how many times and how much each time. Under tightening expectations, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once approached 2%, a new high since the epidemic in 2020. The three major U.S. stock indexes have also been lowered across the board. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has fallen from its high point at the end of last year. Over 10%.</p><p>Hong Kong stock investors are relatively complex, with both domestic and foreign investors. They are affected by both domestic policies and the Federal Reserve. Since last year, important Internet companies and real estate companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market have been suppressed by domestic policies and began to \"kill\" valuations in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, Meituan, Ali and other major Internet companies basically all cut in half and fell.</p><p>QQQ, a fund tracking U.S. technology stocks, and CQQQ, a fund tracking Chinese technology stocks, have been trending very synchronously, but since the beginning of 21 years, the gap between the two has widened. Now QQQ has a downward trend, and CQQQ has an upward trend. Will the two eventually synchronize again?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f451f87d2039d2e7aca3a1ead2e1f1\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On January 20, the Hang Seng Index opened higher and moved higher, rising 2.33% to 24689.32 points in midday trading, setting a new high in nearly 2 months; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 3.33%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.85%. The half-day turnover of the market was 91.29 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the net purchase of southbound funds was 2.888 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>Technology stocks exploded,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">Mingyuan Cloud</a>Rose nearly 10%, Meituan and Kuaishou rose nearly 7%, Tencent,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up nearly 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 4.4%. Real estate stocks continued their gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a>Rose more than 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">Shimao Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09909\">Powerlong Commercial</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p>On the last day of last year, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed up 9.4% on December 30, the largest one-day increase since 2008. Since the New Year of 2022, Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks have performed significantly better than A-shares. In US stocks, year-to-date, the Hang Seng Technology Index has risen 3.28%, the CSI 300 Index has fallen 2.21%, and the Nasdaq Index has fallen 13.76%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f96fd79cff2e3ccdd23b27206bf5240\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>No one can guarantee whether Hong Kong stocks have entered the best investment opportunity. After all, the experience of calling south to seize pricing power in early 2021 was too tragic. However, the repurchase of real money within the company has some reference value. Take Tencent as an example. In 2021, Tencent has 27 stock repurchase records, mainly concentrated in the two months of August and September. Tencent repurchased a total of 5.5818 million shares at a cost of HK $2.599 billion.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, except that there was no repurchase on the 12th, Tencent has been buying and buying every trading day, and the amount has remained at 200 million Hong Kong dollars per time. So far, nearly 2 billion Hong Kong dollars have been repurchased.</p><p>On January 5, Tencent spent HK $203 million to repurchase 470,000 shares;</p><p>On January 6, Tencent spent approximately HK $203 million to repurchase 470,000 shares;</p><p>On January 7, Tencent spent HK $204 million to repurchase 460,000 shares;</p><p>On January 10, Tencent spent HK $204 million to repurchase 450,000 shares;</p><p>On January 11, Tencent spent HK $202 million to repurchase 440,000 shares;</p><p>On January 13, Tencent spent HK $167 million to repurchase 351,400 shares;</p><p>On January 14, Tencent spent HK $201 million to repurchase 430,000 shares;</p><p>On January 17, Tencent spent HK $201 million to repurchase 430,000 shares;</p><p>On January 18, Tencent spent HK $202 million to repurchase 440,000 shares;</p><p>On January 19, Tencent spent HK $204 million to repurchase 450,000 shares</p><p>……</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tight externally and loose internally, will Hong Kong stocks benefit the most?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTight externally and loose internally, will Hong Kong stocks benefit the most?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-20 14:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 20, China's LPR was lowered as scheduled, and at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was also certain. This has formed a situation of \"external tightness and internal looseness\" in monetary policy. Hong Kong stock investors are both at home and abroad, and the main constituent stocks It is very obvious that listed companies killed their valuations in advance under a wave of policy suppression last year. Can this wave skip the decline of U.S. stocks and directly enjoy the benefits brought by loose domestic liquidity?</p><p>On January 20, the People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the 1-year and 5-year LPR by 10bp and 5bp respectively at the same time. The 1-year LPR was only lowered by 5bp last month, while the 5-year LPR was lowered for the first time since April 2020. On Monday (January 17), the central bank announced that the one-year MLF interest rate would be lowered by 10bp to 2.85%, and the seven-day open market reverse repurchase rate would be lowered by 10bp to 2.10%. Overall, since the beginning of the year, the monetary easing policy has been very obvious.</p><p>On the other hand, there is no doubt about the rate hike of the Federal Reserve this year. The focus now is on how many times and how much each time. Under tightening expectations, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once approached 2%, a new high since the epidemic in 2020. The three major U.S. stock indexes have also been lowered across the board. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has fallen from its high point at the end of last year. Over 10%.</p><p>Hong Kong stock investors are relatively complex, with both domestic and foreign investors. They are affected by both domestic policies and the Federal Reserve. Since last year, important Internet companies and real estate companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market have been suppressed by domestic policies and began to \"kill\" valuations in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, Meituan, Ali and other major Internet companies basically all cut in half and fell.</p><p>QQQ, a fund tracking U.S. technology stocks, and CQQQ, a fund tracking Chinese technology stocks, have been trending very synchronously, but since the beginning of 21 years, the gap between the two has widened. Now QQQ has a downward trend, and CQQQ has an upward trend. Will the two eventually synchronize again?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f451f87d2039d2e7aca3a1ead2e1f1\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On January 20, the Hang Seng Index opened higher and moved higher, rising 2.33% to 24689.32 points in midday trading, setting a new high in nearly 2 months; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 3.33%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.85%. The half-day turnover of the market was 91.29 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the net purchase of southbound funds was 2.888 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>Technology stocks exploded,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">Mingyuan Cloud</a>Rose nearly 10%, Meituan and Kuaishou rose nearly 7%, Tencent,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up nearly 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 4.4%. Real estate stocks continued their gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a>Rose more than 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">Shimao Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09909\">Powerlong Commercial</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p>On the last day of last year, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed up 9.4% on December 30, the largest one-day increase since 2008. Since the New Year of 2022, Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks have performed significantly better than A-shares. In US stocks, year-to-date, the Hang Seng Technology Index has risen 3.28%, the CSI 300 Index has fallen 2.21%, and the Nasdaq Index has fallen 13.76%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f96fd79cff2e3ccdd23b27206bf5240\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>No one can guarantee whether Hong Kong stocks have entered the best investment opportunity. After all, the experience of calling south to seize pricing power in early 2021 was too tragic. However, the repurchase of real money within the company has some reference value. Take Tencent as an example. In 2021, Tencent has 27 stock repurchase records, mainly concentrated in the two months of August and September. Tencent repurchased a total of 5.5818 million shares at a cost of HK $2.599 billion.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, except that there was no repurchase on the 12th, Tencent has been buying and buying every trading day, and the amount has remained at 200 million Hong Kong dollars per time. So far, nearly 2 billion Hong Kong dollars have been repurchased.</p><p>On January 5, Tencent spent HK $203 million to repurchase 470,000 shares;</p><p>On January 6, Tencent spent approximately HK $203 million to repurchase 470,000 shares;</p><p>On January 7, Tencent spent HK $204 million to repurchase 460,000 shares;</p><p>On January 10, Tencent spent HK $204 million to repurchase 450,000 shares;</p><p>On January 11, Tencent spent HK $202 million to repurchase 440,000 shares;</p><p>On January 13, Tencent spent HK $167 million to repurchase 351,400 shares;</p><p>On January 14, Tencent spent HK $201 million to repurchase 430,000 shares;</p><p>On January 17, Tencent spent HK $201 million to repurchase 430,000 shares;</p><p>On January 18, Tencent spent HK $202 million to repurchase 440,000 shares;</p><p>On January 19, Tencent spent HK $204 million to repurchase 450,000 shares</p><p>……</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177338378","content_text":"1月20中国LPR如期下调，而在3月份美联储议息会议上，美联储降息也是板上钉钉，这样在货币政策上形成了“外紧内松”的局面，港股投资者国内外都有，并且主要成分股的上市公司在去年的一波政策打压下提前杀估值十分明显。这一波能跳过美股下杀而直接享受国内流动性宽松带来的收益吗？1月20日，中国央行宣布同时下调1年期和5年期LPR分别10bp和5bp，1年期LPR上个月才下调5bp，而5年期则是2020年4月以来首次下调，就在本周一（1月17日）央行才宣布一年期MLF利率下调10bp至2.85%，七天公开市场逆回购利率下调10bp至2.10%。整体来看开年来，货币宽松政策非常明显。反观美联储，今年加息也是毫无疑问，现在的焦点是加几次，每次加多少。在收紧预期下，10年期美债收益率一度逼近2%，创2020年疫情以来新高，美三大股指也是全面下调，以科技股居多的纳斯达克指数较去年底高点已经下跌超10%。港股投资者比较复杂，内外资都有，既受国内政策影响，也受美联储影响。去年开始，港股上市的重要互联网公司以及地产公司受到国内政策面打压，提前开始“杀”估值，腾讯、美团、阿里等主要互联网公司基本全部腰斩以上下跌。跟踪美股科技股的基金QQQ和跟踪中概科技股的基金CQQQ一直走势非常同步，但是从21年初开始，二者之间的差距越拉越大，现在QQQ有向下趋势，CQQQ有向上趋势，二者最终会再次同步走势吗？1月20日，恒指高开高走，午盘涨2.33%报24689.32点，刷新近2个月高位；恒生科技指数涨3.33%，恒生国企指数涨2.85%。大市半日成交912.9亿港元，南向资金净买入28.88亿港元。科技股爆发，明源云涨近10%，美团、快手涨近7%，腾讯、百度涨近5%，阿里巴巴涨4.4%。地产股延续涨势，碧桂园服务涨超13%，融创中国、世茂集团、宝龙商业涨超10%。去年最后一天，12月30日纳斯达克金龙中国指数（HXC）收涨9.4%，创2008年以来最大单日涨幅，2022新年以来，港股以及中概股表现明显强于A股也强于美股，年初至今，恒生科技指数涨幅3.28%，沪深300指数跌2.21%，纳斯达克指数跌13.76%。对于港股是否进入最佳投资时机，外人谁也不敢保证，毕竟2021年初喊着要南下夺取定价权的经历太过惨烈。但是公司内部真金白银的回购多少有点参考价值。以腾讯为例，2021年年内，腾讯有27次股票回购记录，主要集中于8、9月两个月时间内，腾讯合计回购了558.18万股，耗资25.99亿港元。今年初开始，除了12号没有回购，每一个交易日腾讯都在买买买，而且金额保持在2亿港元/每次，目前已经回购近20亿港元。1月5日，腾讯斥资2.03亿港元回购47万股；1月6日，腾讯耗资约2.03亿港元回购47万股；1月7日，腾讯斥资2.04亿港元回购46万股；1月10日，腾讯斥资2.04亿港元回购45万股；1月11日，腾讯斥资2.02亿港元回购44万股；1月13日，腾讯耗资1.67亿港元回购35.14万股；1月14日，腾讯斥资2.01亿港元回购43万股；1月17日，腾讯斥资2.01亿港元回购43万股；1月18日，腾讯斥资2.02亿港元回购44万股；1月19日，腾讯斥资2.04亿港元回购45万股……","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094720153,"gmtCreate":1645238748768,"gmtModify":1676534012252,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094720153","repostId":"1154007444","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154007444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645225649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154007444?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-19 07:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The situation between Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market! U.S. stocks lose two weeks in a row","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154007444","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices closed down collectively, and popular Chinese stocks fell generally; Prevent the \"stock trading storm\" from repeating itself! The Federal Reserve introduces comprehensive trading restrictions; New York Fed questioned the need to raise interest rates by 50 basis points; The research and development process of important chips lags behind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Shares plunged more than 5%>>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: US stocks slide for second week as Russia-Ukraine situation disturbs markets</b></p><p>The situation in Russia and Ukraine and the prospect of rate hike are still dominating the market sentiment. All three major indices closed down, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 1%. The US stock market recorded a decline for the second consecutive week. By the close, the Dow was down 0.68% at 34,079.18; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese stocks closed down generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>fell by more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Dropped more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese stocks fell collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>down 4.37%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>down 3.61%, Weibo fell 5.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>down 6.05%, Bilibili fell 6.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>down 5.22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>down 3.18%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>down 1.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>down 5.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>down 6.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Fell 5.40%, Zhihu fell more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>down 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% for the week</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to close at $91.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The near-month WTI contract fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, gaining 3.1% this week for the biggest weekly gain in nine months</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold rose to its highest close in eight months on Thursday, fueled by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months this week. Gold futures for April delivery fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to close at $1,899.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures rose 3.1% this week, the biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed broadly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 0.31%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed's dovish officials call for substantial policy adjustments, and New York Fed questions the need for a 50 basis point rate hike</b></a></p><p>One of the Fed's most dovish officials has called for a \"substantial adjustment\" of monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, the second Fed official to oppose a 50 basis point rate hike next month. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams both gave clear signals that they will rate hike 25 basis points at the March 15-16 meeting, but core officials remain open about how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed Gov. Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at March meeting</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed was ready for a rate hike next month and decided at several future meetings to begin shrinking its balance sheet. \"Given the very strong numbers we've seen, I do expect that it would be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,\" Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed announces sweeping trading restrictions in case of another ethics scandal</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has officially imposed tough and sweeping restrictions on the investment and trading practices of central bankers in case there is another ethics scandal of the kind that shamed the Fed last year. The changes, in the form of regulations, identify guidelines announced last October that restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden formally signed the temporary appropriation bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of 17th, ensuring that the federal government has enough funds to continue to operate until March 11th, temporarily avoiding the dilemma of the federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Report says SpaceX splits its shares at 1:10, marking the company's first stock split</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company SpaceX is splitting its common stock 1:10, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Falling stocks like Roku and Tesla give Wood Sister's portfolio another blow</b></a></p><p>Wood sister Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with a lot of undervalued companies, but another turbulent trading day sent some of her big-name holdings deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with $2.2 trillion of options expiring amplifying losses. Stocks like Wood's beloved Roku and Tesla weren't immune, with Roku tumbling 22% and Tesla down 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna Announces Start of Herpes Virus, Cancer mRNA Vaccine Development</b></a></p><p>Moderna, a biomedical company, announced that the company has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects, which will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate is designed to prevent herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella zoster virus; mRNA-4359 was used to test the promise of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and Cruise, its autonomous technology subsidiary, said Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. Called the Cruise Origin, the car features no human-controlled components like the steering wheel or brake pedal. GM and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to get approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel Shares Plunge More Than 5% as Research and Development of Important Chips Lags</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday as CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed Thursday that server chips codenamed Granite Rapids will be delayed from 2023 to 2024 and will have to invest heavily over the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor using ultra-ultraviolet lithography technology, which is Intel catching up<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And other key technologies required by top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermes Q4 earnings are not as good as expected, and capacity limits affect performance</b></p><p>On Friday, local time, French luxury goods giant Hermes released its fourth quarter and full-year financial report. According to the data, the company's total revenue in the fourth quarter reached 2.38 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 11% at a constant exchange rate, which was inferior to the 12% expected by analysts in the context of a shortage of luxury goods. The main reason is that the revenue of leather goods and horse harness departments has dropped by more than 5%. Even if most other businesses hand over a growth rate of more than 20%, it can't offset the impact of the revenue decline of the largest business segment. Axel Dumas, CEO of Hermes, revealed that the limited production capacity limits the company's performance growth. It takes 15 hours to make a Hermes leather bag. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, considering the need for a lot of time for training, the growth of production capacity is very limited.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The situation between Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market! U.S. stocks lose two weeks in a row</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The situation between Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market! U.S. stocks lose two weeks in a row\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-19 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices closed down collectively, and popular Chinese stocks fell generally; Prevent the \"stock trading storm\" from repeating itself! The Federal Reserve introduces comprehensive trading restrictions; New York Fed questioned the need to raise interest rates by 50 basis points; The research and development process of important chips lags behind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Shares plunged more than 5%>>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: US stocks slide for second week as Russia-Ukraine situation disturbs markets</b></p><p>The situation in Russia and Ukraine and the prospect of rate hike are still dominating the market sentiment. All three major indices closed down, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 1%. The US stock market recorded a decline for the second consecutive week. By the close, the Dow was down 0.68% at 34,079.18; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese stocks closed down generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>fell by more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Dropped more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese stocks fell collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>down 4.37%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>down 3.61%, Weibo fell 5.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>down 6.05%, Bilibili fell 6.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>down 5.22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>down 3.18%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>down 1.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>down 5.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>down 6.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Fell 5.40%, Zhihu fell more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>down 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% for the week</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to close at $91.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The near-month WTI contract fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, gaining 3.1% this week for the biggest weekly gain in nine months</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold rose to its highest close in eight months on Thursday, fueled by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months this week. Gold futures for April delivery fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to close at $1,899.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures rose 3.1% this week, the biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed broadly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 0.31%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed's dovish officials call for substantial policy adjustments, and New York Fed questions the need for a 50 basis point rate hike</b></a></p><p>One of the Fed's most dovish officials has called for a \"substantial adjustment\" of monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, the second Fed official to oppose a 50 basis point rate hike next month. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams both gave clear signals that they will rate hike 25 basis points at the March 15-16 meeting, but core officials remain open about how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed Gov. Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at March meeting</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed was ready for a rate hike next month and decided at several future meetings to begin shrinking its balance sheet. \"Given the very strong numbers we've seen, I do expect that it would be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,\" Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed announces sweeping trading restrictions in case of another ethics scandal</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has officially imposed tough and sweeping restrictions on the investment and trading practices of central bankers in case there is another ethics scandal of the kind that shamed the Fed last year. The changes, in the form of regulations, identify guidelines announced last October that restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden formally signed the temporary appropriation bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of 17th, ensuring that the federal government has enough funds to continue to operate until March 11th, temporarily avoiding the dilemma of the federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Report says SpaceX splits its shares at 1:10, marking the company's first stock split</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company SpaceX is splitting its common stock 1:10, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Falling stocks like Roku and Tesla give Wood Sister's portfolio another blow</b></a></p><p>Wood sister Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with a lot of undervalued companies, but another turbulent trading day sent some of her big-name holdings deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with $2.2 trillion of options expiring amplifying losses. Stocks like Wood's beloved Roku and Tesla weren't immune, with Roku tumbling 22% and Tesla down 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna Announces Start of Herpes Virus, Cancer mRNA Vaccine Development</b></a></p><p>Moderna, a biomedical company, announced that the company has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects, which will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate is designed to prevent herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella zoster virus; mRNA-4359 was used to test the promise of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and Cruise, its autonomous technology subsidiary, said Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. Called the Cruise Origin, the car features no human-controlled components like the steering wheel or brake pedal. GM and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to get approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel Shares Plunge More Than 5% as Research and Development of Important Chips Lags</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday as CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed Thursday that server chips codenamed Granite Rapids will be delayed from 2023 to 2024 and will have to invest heavily over the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor using ultra-ultraviolet lithography technology, which is Intel catching up<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And other key technologies required by top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermes Q4 earnings are not as good as expected, and capacity limits affect performance</b></p><p>On Friday, local time, French luxury goods giant Hermes released its fourth quarter and full-year financial report. According to the data, the company's total revenue in the fourth quarter reached 2.38 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 11% at a constant exchange rate, which was inferior to the 12% expected by analysts in the context of a shortage of luxury goods. The main reason is that the revenue of leather goods and horse harness departments has dropped by more than 5%. Even if most other businesses hand over a growth rate of more than 20%, it can't offset the impact of the revenue decline of the largest business segment. Axel Dumas, CEO of Hermes, revealed that the limited production capacity limits the company's performance growth. It takes 15 hours to make a Hermes leather bag. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, considering the need for a lot of time for training, the growth of production capacity is very limited.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154007444","content_text":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美股连续第二周下滑俄乌局势和加息前景仍在主导市场情绪，三大指数悉数收跌，纳指跌超1%，美股市场连续第二周录得下跌。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.68%，报34,079.18点；标普500指数跌0.72%，报4,348.87点；纳斯达克指数跌1.23%，报13,548.07点。热门中概股收盘普跌，知乎跌超12%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%热门中概股集体下挫，阿里巴巴跌4.37%，京东跌3.61%，微博跌5.16%，拼多多跌6.05%，哔哩哔哩跌6.19%，百度跌5.22%，新东方跌3.18%，网易跌1.32%，腾讯音乐跌5.68%，爱奇艺跌6.58%，滴滴跌5.40%，知乎跌超12%，满帮跌11.34%。WTI原油期货收跌0.8%，本周下跌2.2%原油期货价格周五收跌，使其周跌幅扩大至2%以上。纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌69美分，跌幅近0.8%，收于每桶91.07美元。本周近月WTI合约下跌2.2%。黄金期货收跌0.1%，本周上涨3.1%创9个月来最大周涨幅黄金期货周五收低。在乌克兰危机推动下，金价周四升至八个月以来的最高收盘价，帮助其本周创下九个月以来的最大单周涨幅。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.20美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1899.80美元。本周黄金期货价格上涨3.1%，是2021年5月以来的最大单周涨幅。欧股收盘普跌，德国DAX指数跌1.46%德国DAX指数跌1.46%，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，法国CAC40指数跌0.25%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.94%。国际宏观美联储鸽派官员呼吁实质性调整政策，纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性美联储最鸽派的官员之一呼吁“实质性调整”货币政策，但淡化了激进紧缩的必要性，这是第二位反对下月加息50基点的美联储官员。芝加哥联储行长Charles Evans和纽约联储行长John Williams都明确给出了将在3月15-16日会议上加息25个基点的信号，但核心官员对最终需要降息多少仍持开放态度。美联储理事布雷纳德：在3月份会议上启动一系列加息是合适的美联储理事布雷纳德表示，美联储已经准备好在下个月加息，并在未来的几次会议上决定开始缩减资产负债表。“鉴于我们已经看到了非常强劲的数据，我的确预计，在下一次会议上启动一系列加息是合适的，” 布雷纳德周五在芝加哥大学布斯商学院于纽约主办的一次会议的小组讨论中表示。美联储宣布全面的交易限制，以防再度发生道德丑闻美联储正式对央行官员的投资和交易行为采取严厉而全面的限制，以防再次发生去年那种让美联储蒙羞的道德丑闻。这些变动以法规形式确定了去年10月宣布的限制主动交易的指导方针，禁止买卖个股，并提高决策者和高级工作人员的披露要求。拜登签署临时拨款法案，避免美国联邦政府停摆美国总统拜登正式签署了美国国会参议院17日晚间通过的临时拨款法案，确保联邦政府有足够资金继续运转到3月11日，暂时避免了联邦政府停摆的窘境。公司新闻报道称SpaceX按1:10拆股，为该公司首次股票拆分据报道，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下太空探索公司SpaceX正在以1：10的比例拆分其普通股，该公司的估值已飙升至超过1000亿美元。Roku和特斯拉等股票下跌让木头姐的投资组合再受打击木头姐Cathie Wood刚刚形容自己的投机性科技板块策略是一个“深度价值”投资组合，里面很多被低估的公司，但又一个动荡的交易日让她持有的一些大牌股票跌得更深了。美国股市周五下跌，2.2万亿美元期权到期放大了股市跌幅。Wood钟爱的Roku、特斯拉等股票也未能幸免，其中Roku暴跌22%，特斯拉下跌2%。莫德纳宣布启动疱疹病毒、癌症mRNA疫苗研发生物医药企业莫德纳（Moderna）发布公告称，公司新增了三个mRNA疫苗开发项目，将使用与Spikevax新冠疫苗相同的技术。根据公告披露，三个新项目中，mRNA-1608候选疫苗旨在预防二型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV-2）；mRNA-1468疫苗用于降低水痘带状疱疹病毒的发病率；mRNA-4359用来测试这项技术治疗癌症的应用前景。通用汽车向NHTSA申请批准部署自动驾驶汽车通用汽车和其自动驾驶技术子公司Cruise周五表示，已向美国监管机构申请建造和部署一款自动驾驶汽车。这款汽车名为Cruise Origin，特点是不具备方向盘或刹车踏板等人工控制的部件。通用汽车和Cruise于2020年10月首次披露Cruise Origin，并计划在几个月内获得美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)的批准。重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%英特尔股价周五收跌5.32%，原因是该公司首席执行官Pat Gelsinger周四证实，代号为Granite Rapids的服务器芯片将从2023年推迟至2024年，未来两年将不得不投入大量资金才能追上竞争对手。Granite Rapids是英特尔首款使用超紫外光刻技术的服务器处理器，这是英特尔追赶台积电和其他顶级芯片制造商所需的关键技术。爱马仕Q4财报不如预期，产能设限影响业绩当地时间周五，法国奢侈品巨头爱马仕发布四季度及全年财报。数据显示，公司四季度总营收达到23.8亿欧元，以不变汇率计算同比增长11%，在奢侈品供不应求的大背景下逊于分析师预期的12%。究其原因，主要是皮具及马具部门营收下降逾5%，即便其他业务大都交出超过20%的增速，也抵不过第一大业务板块营收下降带来的影响。爱马仕CEO阿克塞尔·杜马斯透露，产能有限限制了公司业绩增长，做一个爱马仕的皮包需要15个小时的工序，尽管集团每年会招募400名工匠，但考虑到需要大量时间培训，产能的增长十分有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094889900,"gmtCreate":1645109172189,"gmtModify":1676533998095,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094889900","repostId":"1125455457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125455457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645078408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125455457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 14:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! Read the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting in one article","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125455457","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Hong Kong Wind News Agency reported that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials at the meeting expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy may pose significant risks. There could be a rate hike soon, they said, and said the liquidation of bond portfolios could be strong.</p><p>\"Participants felt that a substantial reduction in the size of the balance sheet might be appropriate given the high size of the securities the Fed currently holds,\" the minutes said. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at a rate hike as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the minutes, the stock market regained ground after the minutes were released. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, said: \"The market interpreted these comments as more moderate relative to expectations.\"</p><p>Markets have been on edge over the past few weeks, as soaring inflation and tough comments from some Fed officials, especially St. Louis Fed President Bullard, have led traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year at 0.25 percentage points each. After the minutes were released, market expectations dropped somewhat, and there is now a 50% chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points.</p><p>\"There's been so much hype lately that I think everybody is ready for the minutes to take a very tough tone,\" Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the commission laid out procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. That balance sheet consists mostly of bonds the Federal Reserve has bought to drive down interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March is also the month when the asset purchase program ends, although some members in attendance want it to end sooner. \"Several participants expressed their preference for closing the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to bringing inflation down,\" the minutes said.</p><p>Commissioners discuss how to trim the balance sheet. The most likely way is to stop investing in maturing bonds. Still, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages outright to keep only U.S. Treasury Bond on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, the latest inflation data since the meeting shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Fed is targeting an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials have acknowledged that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes showed that inflation took up a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said the price increases were stronger and more durable than they expected.</p><p>\"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the Committee's long-term targets and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic restart,\" the document said.</p><p>FOMC members noted that inflation is starting to spread beyond the industries affected by the pandemic and into the broader economy. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to pay higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed the issue of financial stability. Officials noted that the risk comes from rising asset prices as well as the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! Read the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting in one article</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! Read the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting in one article\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-17 14:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Hong Kong Wind News Agency reported that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials at the meeting expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy may pose significant risks. There could be a rate hike soon, they said, and said the liquidation of bond portfolios could be strong.</p><p>\"Participants felt that a substantial reduction in the size of the balance sheet might be appropriate given the high size of the securities the Fed currently holds,\" the minutes said. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at a rate hike as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the minutes, the stock market regained ground after the minutes were released. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, said: \"The market interpreted these comments as more moderate relative to expectations.\"</p><p>Markets have been on edge over the past few weeks, as soaring inflation and tough comments from some Fed officials, especially St. Louis Fed President Bullard, have led traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year at 0.25 percentage points each. After the minutes were released, market expectations dropped somewhat, and there is now a 50% chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points.</p><p>\"There's been so much hype lately that I think everybody is ready for the minutes to take a very tough tone,\" Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the commission laid out procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. That balance sheet consists mostly of bonds the Federal Reserve has bought to drive down interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March is also the month when the asset purchase program ends, although some members in attendance want it to end sooner. \"Several participants expressed their preference for closing the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to bringing inflation down,\" the minutes said.</p><p>Commissioners discuss how to trim the balance sheet. The most likely way is to stop investing in maturing bonds. Still, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages outright to keep only U.S. Treasury Bond on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, the latest inflation data since the meeting shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Fed is targeting an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials have acknowledged that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes showed that inflation took up a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said the price increases were stronger and more durable than they expected.</p><p>\"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the Committee's long-term targets and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic restart,\" the document said.</p><p>FOMC members noted that inflation is starting to spread beyond the industries affected by the pandemic and into the broader economy. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to pay higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed the issue of financial stability. Officials noted that the risk comes from rising asset prices as well as the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125455457","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议纪要表示:“与会者认为，鉴于美联储目前持有的证券规模较高，大幅缩减资产负债表规模可能是合适的。”美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)强烈暗示最早将在3月份上调利率。尽管会议纪要的语气看似强硬，但股市在会议纪要公布后收复了失地。道富环球投资管理公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席经济学家西蒙娜•莫卡塔(Simona Mocuta)表示:“市场将这些言论解读为相对于预期较为温和。”过去几周，市场一直处于紧张状态，因通胀飙升，加上部分美联储官员(尤其是圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德)发表的强硬言论，令交易员预计美联储今年将加息七次，每次0.25个百分点。会议纪要公布后，市场预期有所回落，目前美联储上调基准利率1.75个百分点的几率为50%。“最近有太多的炒作，我认为每个人都准备好了纪要会采取非常强硬的语气，”莫卡塔说。除了利率外，该委员会还制定了如何开始剥离其近9万亿美元资产负债表的程序。该资产负债表主要由美联储为压低利率和刺激经济增长而购买的债券组成。3月也是资产购买计划结束的月份，不过一些与会成员希望能更快结束。会议纪要称，\"几位与会者表示，他们倾向于更早结束委员会的净资产购买计划，以发出更强烈的信号，表明委员会致力于降低通胀。\"委员们讨论如何削减资产负债表。最有可能的方法是，不再投资到期债券。 不过，一些官员说，可能有必要直接出售抵押贷款，以使资产负债表中只持有美国国债。不过自此次会议以来，最新的通胀数据显示，物价正以40年来最快的速度上涨。美联储的目标是平均通胀率在2%左右，官员们也承认，政策需要收紧以降低价格。会议纪要显示，通货膨胀在会议中占据了大量的讨论内容。这个词在纪要中被提到了73次，成员们表示，价格上涨比他们预期的更强劲、更持久。文件称:“与会者指出，最近的通胀数据继续显著超过委员会的长期目标，高通胀持续的时间超过了他们的预期，这反映了与疫情和经济重启有关的供需失衡。”联邦公开市场委员会成员指出，通胀开始蔓延到受疫情影响的行业之外，并进入更广泛的经济领域。与会者承认，高通胀是美国家庭的负担，尤其是那些最无力支付更高价格购买基本商品和服务的家庭。会议还讨论了金融稳定问题。官员们指出，风险来自于资产价格的上涨以及加密资产价格的快速上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004209118,"gmtCreate":1642602163407,"gmtModify":1676533726355,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004209118","repostId":"1178155096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006687328,"gmtCreate":1641712606986,"gmtModify":1676533642323,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006687328","repostId":"2201147402","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001990463,"gmtCreate":1641131472787,"gmtModify":1676533574730,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001990463","repostId":"2200790449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003393516,"gmtCreate":1640872653944,"gmtModify":1676533549555,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003393516","repostId":"2195613462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2195613462","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1640843749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2195613462?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 13:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Global central banks will fight inflation in 2021 and be busy \"collecting water\" in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195613462","media":"智通财经网","summary":"全球央行货币政策2021年终盘点及2022年预测。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly still the main tone in 2021, and the supply chain problems brought about by it have become the bottleneck of the global economy. At the same time, the explosive growth of demand brought about by economic opening has exacerbated the problem of short supply. The surge in commodity prices in the second half of the year has further boosted prices.. There is no doubt that inflation has become the core topic of global monetary policy this year. The hot inflation is worrying, and many central banks inevitably have to \"cool down\" prices.</p><p>Inflation becomes a \"hot potato\" in 2021</p><p>For major central banks around the world, soaring prices are an unavoidable \"hot potato\" in 2021. But the dilemma for central banks is that they cannot fully determine to what extent inflation is driven by a recovery in demand after lockdowns ended, and to what extent it is driven by supply constraints caused by port congestion, material and worker shortages. Raising interest rates will slow demand and do little to ease supply bottlenecks, which is an important driver in helping the world emerge from a pandemic-induced recession. If supply shortages ease as trade returns to normal, policies could end up being too tight, killing the economic recovery.</p><p>As a result, for most of this year, many central banks have argued that \"inflation is a temporary phenomenon\" due to the speed of economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks; Some central banks have chosen to wait and see, hoping that after supply chain problems are resolved, the pressure of soaring inflation can be eased.</p><p>However, when the short-term stimulus effects of large-scale fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy disappeared, along with the energy crisis, the epidemic caused supply chain imbalances and labor shortages, and the shortage of supply exceeded demand, which intensified high global inflation. Moreover, rising prices are gradually leading inflation expectations to rise steadily, and major central banks can only begin to tighten their wallets to curb the overheated economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b0f4258c71cd305613fa26ae29bbc7\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Central banks tackle inflation</p><p>The following is the monetary policy trends of major central banks around the world in 2021 compiled by Zhitong Finance APP:</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Gradually abandon the \"temporary theory of inflation\", Taper takes the lead, and rate hike is expected to be strong</b></p><p>For most of the year, most Fed officials have maintained the view that the current price increases are transitional and that supply chain bottlenecks and other factors are likely to subside. However, as the U.S. economy and employment have made \"substantial\" progress, and high inflation is gradually embedded in expectations, it has become increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to adhere to the \"temporary theory\", thus showing its hawkish posture.</p><p>In the first half of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift began to be released to the market, but the Federal Reserve repeatedly insisted that it would not shift monetary policy in advance; In the first half of the year, the Fed's policy tone remained dovish, generally on hold, optimistic about the economy, and downplayed inflation risks. Since the April meeting, with the increase in COVID-19 vaccine's vaccination rate, the recovery of the U.S. economy has further accelerated. In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized the help of vaccination to the epidemic and the economy, and expressed optimism about the U.S. economic prospects. As the economic performance exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve released a turn signal at its June meeting and began preliminary discussions on the Taper plan.</p><p>Entering the second half of the year, the Fed's policy has become more and more hawkish. Zhitong Finance APP once reported that Fed officials formulated a plan to slow down the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year at the meeting on July 27-28. This is the first time that the Fed has explicitly discussed tapering bond purchases at the meeting since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In September, officials discussed the specific path of reduction for the first time; Participants also mentioned the upside risks of inflation, saying that inflation levels are likely to remain high for longer than expected. On November 4, the Federal Reserve launched the Taper program, which began tapering in November and will end in June 2022; Reduce monthly asset purchases by $15 billion. It is worth noting that the bank still did not abandon the controversial word \"transitional\" on inflation in November.</p><p>But since the November FOMC meeting, the data shows that the inflation rate in the United States is running at its highest rate in more than 30 years. On December 1, Powell suddenly turned hawkish: \"I think now may be a good time to abandon the description of'temporary '.\" He also stressed that he will remain vigilant in controlling inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3e423a3b1240f9aa8633cdfba7042c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. CPI annual rate</p><p>Obviously, Powell's hawkish speech in early December was to prepare for the interest rate decision on December 16. At the December policy meeting, the Federal Reserve accelerated the timetable for ending QE and promised to end its large-scale bond purchase program before March next year instead of June as originally planned, in order to prepare for an early rate hike.</p><p>The Fed dot plot shows that all members expect the Fed to start a rate hike in 2022, specifically three rate hike in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The commissioners are hawkish on policy initiatives, firmly leaning towards rate hike. Of the 18 FOMC members, only six expect fewer than three rate hike next year, and none see interest rates remain at the current near-zero level next year.</p><p>Powell believes the Fed needs to view inflation as a more pressing risk and has raised its 21-year and 22-year inflation outlook. He also said that the Federal Reserve is likely to achieve rate hike before full employment. In November, he said that the U.S. job market may improve enough before the middle of next year to be considered to achieve \"maximum employment\". In other words, rate hike is possible before June next year.</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Inflationary pressure is small in the medium term, and easing policy remains the main tone</b></p><p>Despite high prices in the euro zone this year, the ECB has maintained a dovish stance as long-term inflationary pressures in the euro zone remain weak. The European Central Bank has always been a staunch supporter of the \"temporary theory of inflation\". The core of its policy is to adjust the flexibility of its easing policy to quickly meet the needs of economic growth.</p><p>In the first half of the year, ultra-loose monetary policy remained the main tone of the European Central Bank. Entering the second half of the year, against the background of soaring inflation and strong economic growth, in September, although the European Central Bank decided to maintain the scale of the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) and the bond purchase speed of the asset purchase program (APP) unchanged; However, it plans to slow down the pace of Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the ECB's October meeting insisted that high inflation is still largely considered temporary, but the current price \"hump\" will be more persistent than previously thought, increasing the risk of wages beginning to adjust and keeping price growth at a high level. Both eagles and doves believe that it is too early for rate hike next year, and the difference lies in the speed of continued stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.</p><p>On December 16th, compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which announced the interest rate decision on the same day, the European Central Bank's position was very \"dovish\". The central bank seemed to just continue QE in a different way, hoping to guide the euro zone economies to weather economic growth difficulties stably. The ECB said that the emergency purchase program (PEPP) adopted due to COVID-19 pandemic will be scaled back next quarter and is expected to end in March 2022, but it is possible to resume the PEPP program at any time. However, quantitative easing's monetary policy has not ended there. European policymakers plan to increase the regular bond purchase program (APP) to 40 billion euros per month starting from the second quarter of next year, and then reduce it to 30 billion euros in the next three months. billion euros, and finally returned to the normal scale of 20 billion euros in October.</p><p>In addition, at the end of December, some officials sent a rate hike signal. On December 22, Robert Holzmann, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and President of the Austrian Central Bank, said, \"In 2022, a data-driven decision will be made on whether to suspend bond purchases. In extreme cases, it is possible that rate hike will be conducted at the end of next year or early 2023, roughly at the same time as the third U.S. rate hike.\"</p><p><b>Bank of England: The unpredictable \"unreliable boyfriend\", the first major central bank in rate hike</b></p><p>For most of this year, the Bank of England has focused on easing policies to support economic recovery, and it also insists that inflation will be temporary; However, with the development of the situation, the Bank of England still couldn't withstand the hot prices in response to the increasingly serious inflationary pressure and became the first major central bank in rate hike.</p><p>What sets the Bank of England apart from other central banks is the unpredictability of its policymakers, who often catch the market off guard, which has become a hallmark of the Bank of England. Bailey, the president of the bank, was called \"unreliable boyfriend No.2\" by reporters, and Carney, the former governor, was once nicknamed \"unreliable boyfriend\". This is mainly because the communication between the Bank of England and the market is so poor that it seems that the policy makers of the Bank of England are always inconsistent in their words and deeds, and they repeatedly jump sideways in the position of hawks and doves.</p><p>On September 23, according to the interest rate decision, Bank of England officials unanimously voted to keep the main interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged; Its core expectation is that current global cost pressures will prove to be temporary.</p><p>But in August, UK inflation increased by 3.2% year-on-year, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, and significantly exceeded the bank's target of 2%. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, analysts expect this to be just a short respite for consumers. UK CPI rose by 4.2% in October; Some Bank of England policymakers, such as Governor Bailey and famous hawk michael saunders, have hinted at their support for immediate rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65d10eae0fb3746795c8c3604040c12\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>UK CPI Annual Rate</p><p>But on November 4, the Bank of England once again kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged, contrary to many investors' expectations that the Bank of England would become the first major central bank in rate hike after the outbreak. Many investors criticized the bank for not doing the rate hike as expected and communicating poorly with the market.</p><p>UK inflation hit a 10-year high in November, with CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Despite high prices, thanks to the situation in November, most investors are still betting that the Bank of England will not rate hike.</p><p>However, on December 16, the Bank of England couldn't withstand inflationary pressure after all, and raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, which surprised the market. This was the first time that the bank raised the benchmark interest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the Bank of England has become the first central bank in rate hike among the three major central banks in the world.</p><p><b>Other central banks: rate hike's suppression of inflation becomes mainstream</b></p><p>As the economies of various countries gradually recover from last year's recession, inflation seems to exceed the expectations of policy makers, and the positions of major central banks have shifted one after another; Most central banks have even taken aggressive measures and begun to withdraw monetary stimulus measures to avoid the potential unanchoring of inflation expectations.</p><p>Although the Bank of Japan still maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy, it will partially withdraw from the corporate financing policy introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic after it expires, and significantly reduce ETF purchases this year, which may fall to the lowest level since 2012.</p><p>The Norwegian Bank and the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank are the two G10 central banks that took the lead in rate hike this year. They have both rate hike twice and are likely to continue rate hike next year; Norway is also the first developed economy to have a rate hike after the epidemic.</p><p>For other regions, Latin American central banks have become the main force in the global rate hike camp during the year; The Brazilian central bank, the major central bank with the largest and largest rate hike during the year, raised interest rates by 150 basis points to 9.25% at its latest meeting. In sharp contrast to Latin American central banks holding high the banner of rate hike, it was the calm of major Asian central banks during the year.</p><p>In emerging markets, the weighted policy rate of all economies has risen from 4.5% to 5% in recent months, with 10 of the 21 central banks in rate hike and 3 cutting interest rates (Indonesian, Turkish and North Macedonian).</p><p>Outlook for 2022: It seems a foregone conclusion that major central banks will \"collect water\"</p><p>With the end of the last meeting of the world's major central banks in 2021, the market has begun to have a clear understanding of the attitude of central banks. The policy shift of major central banks seems to reflect their attempts to live with the epidemic. ECB President Christine Lagarde said: \"Many people have been vaccinated and the booster shot campaign is accelerating. Societies have become better at coping with the epidemic wave and the restrictions it brings, which has mitigated the impact of the epidemic on the economy.\"</p><p>What's more, as central bankers learn more about widespread inflation, they have developed different views on how the outbreak of the new virus affects the economy. In the early days of the pandemic, the focus was that lockdowns would dampen consumer demand, which loose monetary policy could help boost. Now, officials' concerns that turning to anti-epidemic restrictions will hinder the supply and transportation of goods, driving up prices, also strengthens rate hike's case.</p><p>Right now, most central banks are starting to get uneasy about high inflation, and it seems only a matter of time before monetary stimulus is tightened in 2022. Among advanced economies, the weighted policy rate across all countries has edged up from a record low of 0.07% to 0.14% in recent months, with six of 17 central banks raising interest rates. Before the pandemic, the advanced economy weighted policy rate was 0.8%, which still has plenty of room to rise by comparison.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f18f8dbb732e024659873129711d9\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In emerging markets, before the COVID-19 epidemic, the weighted policy interest rate of emerging markets was 5.5%, and there is still some room for rate hike. Unless COVID-19 pandemic hampers the economic recovery, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. In addition, the Federal Reserve joining the ranks of rate hike next year may put some pressure on monetary policy in emerging markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6633279b1ed5cadfed7455edd4fdf3f\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, as the \"wind vane\" of global monetary policy, will undoubtedly lead the mainstream of global monetary policy next year. Therefore, the market has also paid a lot of attention to these three central banks.</p><p><b>Fed: Ending Taper Is A Degree, rate hike Is Just a Matter of Speed</b></p><p>The hot economy of the United States is further pushing up its prices, and in addition to the high energy prices, the high housing prices and service industry costs also reflect the \"stickiness\" of the rising prices in the United States. The Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core PCE price index measure, also continues to be above the 2% target. Therefore, unless the epidemic severely impacts the U.S. economy again next year, the end of Taper in March is already a certainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b446630969e35dcc006531adf239f4\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market is more concerned about when the Federal Reserve will rate hike and rate hike several times next year. The latest interest rate dot plot of the Federal Reserve in December shows that, based on a 25 basis point rate hike, all 18 officials attending the meeting expect the Federal Reserve to rate hike next year. Among them, only one expects rate hike once next year, five expects rate hike twice next year, 10 expects rate hike three times next year, and two expects rate hike four times next year. The median expectation falls above rate hike three times next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5066bbae70662dedaeaa5ed3574f641\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Federal Reserve's interest rate dot plot itself has always been known for its changeability, and current expectations do not equal actual actions next year. However, according to \"Fedwatch\", the market expects that the Federal Reserve may conduct a rate hike as early as March next year, with a probability of a rate hike reaching 53.8%. In addition, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in the middle of next year to reach 91.21%, of which the probability of two rate hike is expected to reach 41.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f4751ed9bfd0e7e575d641b45290a86\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea890048b1132c8498020f37d819f64\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CME group's FedWatch tool uses 30-day federal funds futures pricing data to analyze the possibility of interest rate adjustments at future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Keep interest rates unchanged, change QE</b></p><p>At the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that \"rate hike in 2022 is unlikely.\" Moreover, judging from the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and official speeches, although the European Central Bank will end the PEPP in 2022, it will still maintain the flexibility of sufficient scale bond purchases to meet the needs of economic growth, and the European Central Bank also plans to reinvest the principal of maturing bonds.</p><p>At the December meeting, ECB officials' inflation forecasts for the euro zone in 2023 and 2024 remained below 2%. Compared with the United States, the inflation risk in the euro zone is indeed lower.</p><p>First, because the euro zone has not issued government subsidies on a large scale like the United States, there is a gap in residents' income, and consumer spending is definitely not as strong as that of the United States. Second, the peak of the overall money supply expansion in the euro zone is 10%-15%, while that in the United States has reached more than 25%. In addition, the wage growth rate in the euro zone is still moderate, and there has not been an accelerated wage increase like that in the United States. Therefore, supply bottlenecks are the main reason for the upward risk of inflation in Europe.</p><p>And as far as the ECB is concerned, it must also take into account the major differences within the euro zone for which it makes policies. Any large-scale withdrawal of crisis support may bring debt crises to some member countries, for example, affecting the sustainability of the high debt burden of economies such as Italy.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that price increases in the euro zone will continue and have begun to pay attention to the possibility of the European Central Bank's policy normalization in 2023; Currently, some investors are betting that the European Central Bank may rate hike by 15 basis points by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Bank of England: Or rate hike 100 basis points, reaching key interest rate will trigger QT</b></p><p>According to the pound overnight index swap, the market currently expects the Bank of England to raise the rate hike by 100 basis points (that is, the key interest rate will rise from 0.25% to 1.25%) by December 2022 as the labor market drives inflation, even under the risk of the epidemic posed by the Omicron variant.%), by which time the key interest rate will be above 1% for the first time since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f17ce49e74ff9aa9c907f21028364ef\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, if the Bank of England raises interest rates to the key level of 0.5% at its meeting in February next year, quantitative tightening (QT) could be initiated, meaning it will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing notes, automatically reducing its portfolio size when debt matures. Secondly, a more aggressive move by the Bank of England will mean that after interest rates reach 1%, there may be an aggressive sale of UK Treasury Bond. Money markets expect interest rates to hit this level in August. However, traders are speculating when and how the Bank of England will introduce this monetary policy given the risk of a recurrence of the epidemic threatening the economic outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56705394c28562ca7d5f6de663c3cca\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>epilogue</p><p>As the core counter-cyclical adjustment tool to hedge economic fluctuations, monetary policy is often the most powerful means; At the same time, price stability and economic growth can't have it both ways in the short term, like \"fish\" and \"bear's cake\". In 2021, after flooding and in the context of supply shortages, soaring inflation will inevitably follow; High inflation may be a medium-and long-term problem. Next, the task of stabilizing prices has been put on the desks of major policy makers.</p><p>In 2022, it is time for the market to get out of the \"good night\" of monetary easing. The hot economy cannot last forever. At the end of 2021, major central banks have already kicked off tightening policies. Unless the \"black swan\" of COVID-19 pandemic deals a severe blow to the economic recovery, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. With the withdrawal of loose stimulus policies and the progress of the economic cycle, the growth prospects of major economies may face greater pressure next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global central banks will fight inflation in 2021 and be busy \"collecting water\" in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal central banks will fight inflation in 2021 and be busy \"collecting water\" in 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 13:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly still the main tone in 2021, and the supply chain problems brought about by it have become the bottleneck of the global economy. At the same time, the explosive growth of demand brought about by economic opening has exacerbated the problem of short supply. The surge in commodity prices in the second half of the year has further boosted prices.. There is no doubt that inflation has become the core topic of global monetary policy this year. The hot inflation is worrying, and many central banks inevitably have to \"cool down\" prices.</p><p>Inflation becomes a \"hot potato\" in 2021</p><p>For major central banks around the world, soaring prices are an unavoidable \"hot potato\" in 2021. But the dilemma for central banks is that they cannot fully determine to what extent inflation is driven by a recovery in demand after lockdowns ended, and to what extent it is driven by supply constraints caused by port congestion, material and worker shortages. Raising interest rates will slow demand and do little to ease supply bottlenecks, which is an important driver in helping the world emerge from a pandemic-induced recession. If supply shortages ease as trade returns to normal, policies could end up being too tight, killing the economic recovery.</p><p>As a result, for most of this year, many central banks have argued that \"inflation is a temporary phenomenon\" due to the speed of economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks; Some central banks have chosen to wait and see, hoping that after supply chain problems are resolved, the pressure of soaring inflation can be eased.</p><p>However, when the short-term stimulus effects of large-scale fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy disappeared, along with the energy crisis, the epidemic caused supply chain imbalances and labor shortages, and the shortage of supply exceeded demand, which intensified high global inflation. Moreover, rising prices are gradually leading inflation expectations to rise steadily, and major central banks can only begin to tighten their wallets to curb the overheated economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b0f4258c71cd305613fa26ae29bbc7\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Central banks tackle inflation</p><p>The following is the monetary policy trends of major central banks around the world in 2021 compiled by Zhitong Finance APP:</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Gradually abandon the \"temporary theory of inflation\", Taper takes the lead, and rate hike is expected to be strong</b></p><p>For most of the year, most Fed officials have maintained the view that the current price increases are transitional and that supply chain bottlenecks and other factors are likely to subside. However, as the U.S. economy and employment have made \"substantial\" progress, and high inflation is gradually embedded in expectations, it has become increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to adhere to the \"temporary theory\", thus showing its hawkish posture.</p><p>In the first half of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift began to be released to the market, but the Federal Reserve repeatedly insisted that it would not shift monetary policy in advance; In the first half of the year, the Fed's policy tone remained dovish, generally on hold, optimistic about the economy, and downplayed inflation risks. Since the April meeting, with the increase in COVID-19 vaccine's vaccination rate, the recovery of the U.S. economy has further accelerated. In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized the help of vaccination to the epidemic and the economy, and expressed optimism about the U.S. economic prospects. As the economic performance exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve released a turn signal at its June meeting and began preliminary discussions on the Taper plan.</p><p>Entering the second half of the year, the Fed's policy has become more and more hawkish. Zhitong Finance APP once reported that Fed officials formulated a plan to slow down the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year at the meeting on July 27-28. This is the first time that the Fed has explicitly discussed tapering bond purchases at the meeting since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In September, officials discussed the specific path of reduction for the first time; Participants also mentioned the upside risks of inflation, saying that inflation levels are likely to remain high for longer than expected. On November 4, the Federal Reserve launched the Taper program, which began tapering in November and will end in June 2022; Reduce monthly asset purchases by $15 billion. It is worth noting that the bank still did not abandon the controversial word \"transitional\" on inflation in November.</p><p>But since the November FOMC meeting, the data shows that the inflation rate in the United States is running at its highest rate in more than 30 years. On December 1, Powell suddenly turned hawkish: \"I think now may be a good time to abandon the description of'temporary '.\" He also stressed that he will remain vigilant in controlling inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3e423a3b1240f9aa8633cdfba7042c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. CPI annual rate</p><p>Obviously, Powell's hawkish speech in early December was to prepare for the interest rate decision on December 16. At the December policy meeting, the Federal Reserve accelerated the timetable for ending QE and promised to end its large-scale bond purchase program before March next year instead of June as originally planned, in order to prepare for an early rate hike.</p><p>The Fed dot plot shows that all members expect the Fed to start a rate hike in 2022, specifically three rate hike in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The commissioners are hawkish on policy initiatives, firmly leaning towards rate hike. Of the 18 FOMC members, only six expect fewer than three rate hike next year, and none see interest rates remain at the current near-zero level next year.</p><p>Powell believes the Fed needs to view inflation as a more pressing risk and has raised its 21-year and 22-year inflation outlook. He also said that the Federal Reserve is likely to achieve rate hike before full employment. In November, he said that the U.S. job market may improve enough before the middle of next year to be considered to achieve \"maximum employment\". In other words, rate hike is possible before June next year.</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Inflationary pressure is small in the medium term, and easing policy remains the main tone</b></p><p>Despite high prices in the euro zone this year, the ECB has maintained a dovish stance as long-term inflationary pressures in the euro zone remain weak. The European Central Bank has always been a staunch supporter of the \"temporary theory of inflation\". The core of its policy is to adjust the flexibility of its easing policy to quickly meet the needs of economic growth.</p><p>In the first half of the year, ultra-loose monetary policy remained the main tone of the European Central Bank. Entering the second half of the year, against the background of soaring inflation and strong economic growth, in September, although the European Central Bank decided to maintain the scale of the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) and the bond purchase speed of the asset purchase program (APP) unchanged; However, it plans to slow down the pace of Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the ECB's October meeting insisted that high inflation is still largely considered temporary, but the current price \"hump\" will be more persistent than previously thought, increasing the risk of wages beginning to adjust and keeping price growth at a high level. Both eagles and doves believe that it is too early for rate hike next year, and the difference lies in the speed of continued stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.</p><p>On December 16th, compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which announced the interest rate decision on the same day, the European Central Bank's position was very \"dovish\". The central bank seemed to just continue QE in a different way, hoping to guide the euro zone economies to weather economic growth difficulties stably. The ECB said that the emergency purchase program (PEPP) adopted due to COVID-19 pandemic will be scaled back next quarter and is expected to end in March 2022, but it is possible to resume the PEPP program at any time. However, quantitative easing's monetary policy has not ended there. European policymakers plan to increase the regular bond purchase program (APP) to 40 billion euros per month starting from the second quarter of next year, and then reduce it to 30 billion euros in the next three months. billion euros, and finally returned to the normal scale of 20 billion euros in October.</p><p>In addition, at the end of December, some officials sent a rate hike signal. On December 22, Robert Holzmann, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and President of the Austrian Central Bank, said, \"In 2022, a data-driven decision will be made on whether to suspend bond purchases. In extreme cases, it is possible that rate hike will be conducted at the end of next year or early 2023, roughly at the same time as the third U.S. rate hike.\"</p><p><b>Bank of England: The unpredictable \"unreliable boyfriend\", the first major central bank in rate hike</b></p><p>For most of this year, the Bank of England has focused on easing policies to support economic recovery, and it also insists that inflation will be temporary; However, with the development of the situation, the Bank of England still couldn't withstand the hot prices in response to the increasingly serious inflationary pressure and became the first major central bank in rate hike.</p><p>What sets the Bank of England apart from other central banks is the unpredictability of its policymakers, who often catch the market off guard, which has become a hallmark of the Bank of England. Bailey, the president of the bank, was called \"unreliable boyfriend No.2\" by reporters, and Carney, the former governor, was once nicknamed \"unreliable boyfriend\". This is mainly because the communication between the Bank of England and the market is so poor that it seems that the policy makers of the Bank of England are always inconsistent in their words and deeds, and they repeatedly jump sideways in the position of hawks and doves.</p><p>On September 23, according to the interest rate decision, Bank of England officials unanimously voted to keep the main interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged; Its core expectation is that current global cost pressures will prove to be temporary.</p><p>But in August, UK inflation increased by 3.2% year-on-year, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, and significantly exceeded the bank's target of 2%. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, analysts expect this to be just a short respite for consumers. UK CPI rose by 4.2% in October; Some Bank of England policymakers, such as Governor Bailey and famous hawk michael saunders, have hinted at their support for immediate rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65d10eae0fb3746795c8c3604040c12\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>UK CPI Annual Rate</p><p>But on November 4, the Bank of England once again kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged, contrary to many investors' expectations that the Bank of England would become the first major central bank in rate hike after the outbreak. Many investors criticized the bank for not doing the rate hike as expected and communicating poorly with the market.</p><p>UK inflation hit a 10-year high in November, with CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Despite high prices, thanks to the situation in November, most investors are still betting that the Bank of England will not rate hike.</p><p>However, on December 16, the Bank of England couldn't withstand inflationary pressure after all, and raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, which surprised the market. This was the first time that the bank raised the benchmark interest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the Bank of England has become the first central bank in rate hike among the three major central banks in the world.</p><p><b>Other central banks: rate hike's suppression of inflation becomes mainstream</b></p><p>As the economies of various countries gradually recover from last year's recession, inflation seems to exceed the expectations of policy makers, and the positions of major central banks have shifted one after another; Most central banks have even taken aggressive measures and begun to withdraw monetary stimulus measures to avoid the potential unanchoring of inflation expectations.</p><p>Although the Bank of Japan still maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy, it will partially withdraw from the corporate financing policy introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic after it expires, and significantly reduce ETF purchases this year, which may fall to the lowest level since 2012.</p><p>The Norwegian Bank and the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank are the two G10 central banks that took the lead in rate hike this year. They have both rate hike twice and are likely to continue rate hike next year; Norway is also the first developed economy to have a rate hike after the epidemic.</p><p>For other regions, Latin American central banks have become the main force in the global rate hike camp during the year; The Brazilian central bank, the major central bank with the largest and largest rate hike during the year, raised interest rates by 150 basis points to 9.25% at its latest meeting. In sharp contrast to Latin American central banks holding high the banner of rate hike, it was the calm of major Asian central banks during the year.</p><p>In emerging markets, the weighted policy rate of all economies has risen from 4.5% to 5% in recent months, with 10 of the 21 central banks in rate hike and 3 cutting interest rates (Indonesian, Turkish and North Macedonian).</p><p>Outlook for 2022: It seems a foregone conclusion that major central banks will \"collect water\"</p><p>With the end of the last meeting of the world's major central banks in 2021, the market has begun to have a clear understanding of the attitude of central banks. The policy shift of major central banks seems to reflect their attempts to live with the epidemic. ECB President Christine Lagarde said: \"Many people have been vaccinated and the booster shot campaign is accelerating. Societies have become better at coping with the epidemic wave and the restrictions it brings, which has mitigated the impact of the epidemic on the economy.\"</p><p>What's more, as central bankers learn more about widespread inflation, they have developed different views on how the outbreak of the new virus affects the economy. In the early days of the pandemic, the focus was that lockdowns would dampen consumer demand, which loose monetary policy could help boost. Now, officials' concerns that turning to anti-epidemic restrictions will hinder the supply and transportation of goods, driving up prices, also strengthens rate hike's case.</p><p>Right now, most central banks are starting to get uneasy about high inflation, and it seems only a matter of time before monetary stimulus is tightened in 2022. Among advanced economies, the weighted policy rate across all countries has edged up from a record low of 0.07% to 0.14% in recent months, with six of 17 central banks raising interest rates. Before the pandemic, the advanced economy weighted policy rate was 0.8%, which still has plenty of room to rise by comparison.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f18f8dbb732e024659873129711d9\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In emerging markets, before the COVID-19 epidemic, the weighted policy interest rate of emerging markets was 5.5%, and there is still some room for rate hike. Unless COVID-19 pandemic hampers the economic recovery, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. In addition, the Federal Reserve joining the ranks of rate hike next year may put some pressure on monetary policy in emerging markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6633279b1ed5cadfed7455edd4fdf3f\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, as the \"wind vane\" of global monetary policy, will undoubtedly lead the mainstream of global monetary policy next year. Therefore, the market has also paid a lot of attention to these three central banks.</p><p><b>Fed: Ending Taper Is A Degree, rate hike Is Just a Matter of Speed</b></p><p>The hot economy of the United States is further pushing up its prices, and in addition to the high energy prices, the high housing prices and service industry costs also reflect the \"stickiness\" of the rising prices in the United States. The Fed's favorite inflation measure, the core PCE price index measure, also continues to be above the 2% target. Therefore, unless the epidemic severely impacts the U.S. economy again next year, the end of Taper in March is already a certainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b446630969e35dcc006531adf239f4\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market is more concerned about when the Federal Reserve will rate hike and rate hike several times next year. The latest interest rate dot plot of the Federal Reserve in December shows that, based on a 25 basis point rate hike, all 18 officials attending the meeting expect the Federal Reserve to rate hike next year. Among them, only one expects rate hike once next year, five expects rate hike twice next year, 10 expects rate hike three times next year, and two expects rate hike four times next year. The median expectation falls above rate hike three times next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5066bbae70662dedaeaa5ed3574f641\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Federal Reserve's interest rate dot plot itself has always been known for its changeability, and current expectations do not equal actual actions next year. However, according to \"Fedwatch\", the market expects that the Federal Reserve may conduct a rate hike as early as March next year, with a probability of a rate hike reaching 53.8%. In addition, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in the middle of next year to reach 91.21%, of which the probability of two rate hike is expected to reach 41.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f4751ed9bfd0e7e575d641b45290a86\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea890048b1132c8498020f37d819f64\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CME group's FedWatch tool uses 30-day federal funds futures pricing data to analyze the possibility of interest rate adjustments at future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Keep interest rates unchanged, change QE</b></p><p>At the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that \"rate hike in 2022 is unlikely.\" Moreover, judging from the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and official speeches, although the European Central Bank will end the PEPP in 2022, it will still maintain the flexibility of sufficient scale bond purchases to meet the needs of economic growth, and the European Central Bank also plans to reinvest the principal of maturing bonds.</p><p>At the December meeting, ECB officials' inflation forecasts for the euro zone in 2023 and 2024 remained below 2%. Compared with the United States, the inflation risk in the euro zone is indeed lower.</p><p>First, because the euro zone has not issued government subsidies on a large scale like the United States, there is a gap in residents' income, and consumer spending is definitely not as strong as that of the United States. Second, the peak of the overall money supply expansion in the euro zone is 10%-15%, while that in the United States has reached more than 25%. In addition, the wage growth rate in the euro zone is still moderate, and there has not been an accelerated wage increase like that in the United States. Therefore, supply bottlenecks are the main reason for the upward risk of inflation in Europe.</p><p>And as far as the ECB is concerned, it must also take into account the major differences within the euro zone for which it makes policies. Any large-scale withdrawal of crisis support may bring debt crises to some member countries, for example, affecting the sustainability of the high debt burden of economies such as Italy.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that price increases in the euro zone will continue and have begun to pay attention to the possibility of the European Central Bank's policy normalization in 2023; Currently, some investors are betting that the European Central Bank may rate hike by 15 basis points by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Bank of England: Or rate hike 100 basis points, reaching key interest rate will trigger QT</b></p><p>According to the pound overnight index swap, the market currently expects the Bank of England to raise the rate hike by 100 basis points (that is, the key interest rate will rise from 0.25% to 1.25%) by December 2022 as the labor market drives inflation, even under the risk of the epidemic posed by the Omicron variant.%), by which time the key interest rate will be above 1% for the first time since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f17ce49e74ff9aa9c907f21028364ef\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, if the Bank of England raises interest rates to the key level of 0.5% at its meeting in February next year, quantitative tightening (QT) could be initiated, meaning it will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing notes, automatically reducing its portfolio size when debt matures. Secondly, a more aggressive move by the Bank of England will mean that after interest rates reach 1%, there may be an aggressive sale of UK Treasury Bond. Money markets expect interest rates to hit this level in August. However, traders are speculating when and how the Bank of England will introduce this monetary policy given the risk of a recurrence of the epidemic threatening the economic outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56705394c28562ca7d5f6de663c3cca\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>epilogue</p><p>As the core counter-cyclical adjustment tool to hedge economic fluctuations, monetary policy is often the most powerful means; At the same time, price stability and economic growth can't have it both ways in the short term, like \"fish\" and \"bear's cake\". In 2021, after flooding and in the context of supply shortages, soaring inflation will inevitably follow; High inflation may be a medium-and long-term problem. Next, the task of stabilizing prices has been put on the desks of major policy makers.</p><p>In 2022, it is time for the market to get out of the \"good night\" of monetary easing. The hot economy cannot last forever. At the end of 2021, major central banks have already kicked off tightening policies. Unless the \"black swan\" of COVID-19 pandemic deals a severe blow to the economic recovery, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. With the withdrawal of loose stimulus policies and the progress of the economic cycle, the growth prospects of major economies may face greater pressure next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/631838.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78832e6d293703c403865ad10f135ee6","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4539":"次新股","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4023":"应用软件","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","APP":"AppLovin Corporation","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/631838.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2195613462","content_text":"新冠疫情无疑仍是2021年的主基调，带来的供应链问题成为全球经济的瓶颈，同时经济开放带来需求的爆发式增长加剧了供不应求的问题，下半年大宗商品价格的飙升进一步助涨了物价。毫无疑问地，通胀成为了今年全球货币政策的核心话题。火热的通胀令人心忧，众多央行不可避免地要给物价“降温”。2021年通胀成“烫手山芋”对于全球各大央行来说，物价飙升是2021年无法回避的“烫手山芋”。但各大央行的困境在于，不能完全确定通胀在多大程度上是由封锁结束后需求的复苏推动的，又在多大程度上是由港口堵塞、材料和工人短缺造成的供应紧张导致的。提高利率将使需求放缓，对缓解供应瓶颈作用不大，而需求却是帮助世界摆脱疫情导致的经济衰退的重要推动力。如果供应短缺随着贸易恢复正常而缓解，政策最终可能会过于紧缩，从而扼杀经济复苏。因此，今年大多数时间，许多央行认为，由于经济复苏的速度和供应链瓶颈，“通胀是一个暂时现象”;一些央行选择静观其变，以期供应链问题解决后，通胀飙升压力能得到缓解。但当大规模财政刺激和宽松货币政策的短期刺激效应消失之后，伴随着能源危机，疫情致使供应链失衡和劳动力短缺，供不应求让全球通胀高企愈演愈烈。而且，上升的物价正在逐步引导通胀预期稳步上升，各大央行只能纷纷开始收紧钱袋抑制过热的经济。央行应对通胀以下是智通财经APP整理的2021年全球主要央行货币政策动向：美联储：逐渐放弃“通胀暂时论”，Taper先行，加息预期强烈今年大部分时间，大多数美联储官员一直坚持的观点是，目前的价格上涨是过渡性的，供应链瓶颈和其他因素可能会消退。但随着美国经济和就业取得“实质性”进展，而且通胀高企逐步嵌入预期也让美联储越来越难以坚持“暂时论”，进而鹰姿尽显。上半年，美联储货币政策转向的压力就开始向市场释放，但美联储一再坚持不会提前进行货币政策的转向;上半年美联储政策基调仍偏鸽，总体按兵不动，对经济较乐观，并淡化通胀风险。自4月会议以后，随着新冠疫苗接种率的提升，美国经济修复进一步提速，美联储在声明中强调了疫苗接种对疫情和经济的帮助，并对美国经济前景表示乐观。由于经济表现超预期，美联储于6月会议释放转向信号，开始初步讨论Taper计划。进入下半年，美联储政策转鹰气息越来越浓。智通财经APP曾报道，美联储官员在7月27-28日的会议上制定了可能在年底前放缓每月购债步伐的计划，这是新冠疫情爆发后美联储首次在会议上明确讨论缩减购债。9月份，官员们首次讨论了减码的具体路径;与会者还提到了通胀的上行风险，称通胀水平居于高位的时间将可能持续得比预期久。11月4日，美联储启动了Taper计划，于11月开始缩减，并将于2022年6月结束;将每月资产购买规模减少150亿美元。值得注意的是，该行于11月仍然没有对通胀问题放弃使用“过渡性”这个有争议的词。但是自11月的FOMC会议以来，数据显示美国的通胀率以30多年来的最高速度运行。12月1日，鲍威尔突然转鹰：“我认为现在可能是一个好时机，放弃‘暂时性’这一描述。”他同时强调，将在控制通胀方面保持警惕。美国CPI年率很显然，鲍威尔12月初的鹰派发言是为12月16日的利率决议做准备。12月政策会议上，美联储加快了结束QE的时间表，并承诺在明年3月前结束大规模的债券购买计划，而不是原计划的6月，以便为提早加息作准备。美联储点阵图显示，所有委员均预计美联储将在2022年开始加息，具体为2022年和2023年分别加息三次。委员们对政策举措持鹰派态度，坚定地倾向于加息。在18名FOMC委员中，只有6名预计明年加息不到3次，且没有任何委员看到明年利率保持当前近零水平。鲍威尔认为美联储需要将通胀视为更紧迫的风险，并上调了21年和22年的通胀前景。他还称美联储有可能在实现充分就业之前加息，而11月时他曾表示，美国就业市场可能会在明年年中之前就获得足够的改善，可以认为将达成“最大就业”。换言之，明年6月之前加息是可能的。欧洲央行：中期通胀压力小，宽松政策仍为主基调尽管今年欧元区物价高企，但欧洲央行仍保持鸽派立场，因为欧元区长期通胀压力依然疲弱。欧洲央行一直以来也是“通胀暂时论”的坚定支持者，其政策核心在于，调整其宽松政策灵活性以迅速满足经济增长需求。上半年，超宽松货币政策仍是欧洲央行的主基调。进入下半年，在通胀飙升和经济强劲增长的背景下，9月份，欧洲央行虽然决定维持紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)规模和资产购买计划(APP)的购债速度不变;但计划放缓第四季度的紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)购债速度。同样地，欧洲央行10月会议上仍坚持高通胀在很大程度上仍被认为是暂时的，但目前的价格“驼峰”将比以前认为的更持久，增加了工资开始调整并使价格增长保持在高位的风险。鹰鸽双方都认为明年加息为时尚早，而分歧在于以购买债券的形式继续实施刺激措施的速度。12月16日，相比于同一天公布利率决议的美联储和英国央行，欧洲央行的立场非常“鸽派”，该央行似乎只是换了个方式继续QE，希望引导欧元区经济体安稳度过经济增长难关。欧洲央行表示，因新冠疫情而采取的紧急购买计划(PEPP)下季度将被缩减，并预计将于2022年3月结束，但随时有可能恢复PEPP计划。不过，量化宽松货币政策并未就此划上句号，欧洲政策制定者计划从明年第二季度开始，常规债券购买计划(APP)将增至每月400亿欧元，随后在接下来三个月里缩减至300亿欧元，最后在10月恢复至200亿欧元的常态化规模。此外，12月底有官员发出加息信号。12月22日，欧洲央行管委会成员、奥地利央行行长霍尔茨曼(Robert Holzmann)称，“2022年将以数据驱动的方式决定是否暂停购债。在极端情况下，有可能将在明年年底或2023年初进行加息，与美国第三次加息的时间大致相同。”英国央行：变幻莫测的“不靠谱男友”，首家加息主要央行今年英国央行大部分时间还是以支持经济复苏的宽松政策为主，其也坚持认为通胀将是暂时的;但随着形势的发展，英国央行为应对日益严重的通胀压力，还是扛不住火热的物价而成为首个加息的主要央行。而使英国央行区别于其他央行的是其政策制定者的变幻莫测，常常令市场措手不及，这成为英国央行的一个标志。该行行长贝利被记者称为“不靠谱男友二号”，前行长卡尼也曾被戏称为“不靠谱男友”，这主要还是因为英国央行跟市场的沟通太差劲，显得英国央行政策制定者总是言行不一，在鹰鸽立场中反复横跳。9月23日，据利率决议，英国央行官员一致投票决定将主要利率与购债规模不变;其核心预期是，目前的全球成本压力将被证明是暂时的。但在8月份，英国通胀率同比增长3.2%，创自1997年有记录以来的最大增幅，大大超过了该行2%的目标。虽然在9月份，英国通胀意外放缓，但分析师预计这对消费者而言只是一次短暂的喘息。英国10月份CPI涨幅达到4.2%;一些英国央行决策者，如行长贝利和著名鹰派人士迈克尔•桑德斯已暗示支持立即加息。英国CPI年率但11月4日，英国央行再次维持基准利率和购债规模不变，与许多投资者认为英国央行将成为疫情爆发后第一家加息的主要央行的预期背道而驰。许多投资者抨击该行没有如预期般加息，与市场沟通太差。英国11月通胀率创下10年来新高，CPI同比上涨5.1%，远高于英国央行2%的目标值。尽管物价高企，得益于11月的情况，仍有大部分投资者押注英国央行不会加息。但是12月16日，英国央行终究还是扛不住通胀压力，而将基准利率由0.1%上调至0.25%，令市场大感意外，这是该行自新冠疫情以来首次上调基准利率。英国央行也因此成为了全球三大央行中首家加息的央行。其他央行：加息抑通胀成主流随着各国经济从去年的衰退中逐渐复苏，通胀情况似乎超出了决策者的预期，各大央行的立场纷纷转向;大部分央行甚至已经采取了积极措施，开始撤出货币刺激措施，以避免潜在的通胀预期脱锚。日本央行虽然仍维持超宽松货币政策，但为应对新冠疫情而推出的企业融资政策到期后将部分退出，且大幅缩减今年ETF购买量，或将降至2012年以来最低水平。挪威央行和新西兰联储是年内率先加息的两家G10央行，都已加息两次，明年很可能继续加息;挪威也是疫情后首个加息的发达经济体。对于其他地区而言，拉美央行成为了年内全球加息阵营的主力军;巴西央行是年内加息次数最多、幅度也最大的主要央行，在最近一次会议上把利率上调150个基点至9.25%。与拉美国家央行高举加息旗帜形成鲜明对比的，则是主要亚洲央行年内的风平浪静。在新兴市场，所有经济体的加权政策利率在最近几个月从4.5%上升到5%，21家央行中有10家加息，3家降息(印度尼西亚、土耳其和北马其顿)。2022年展望：各大央行“收水”似成定局随着世界上各大央行在2021年里的最后一次会议结束，市场对于央行的态度开始有了清晰的认识。各大央行政策转向似乎体现了他们试图与疫情共存。欧洲央行行长拉加德表示:“许多人已经接种了疫苗，加强针运动也在加速。社会已变得更善于应对疫情浪潮及其带来的限制，这减轻了疫情对经济的影响。”更重要的是，随着央行官员对大范围通货膨胀了解的加深，他们对新病毒的爆发如何影响经济产生了不同的看法。在疫情初期，人们关注的焦点是封锁会抑制消费需求，而宽松的货币政策可能有助于提振消费需求。 现在，官员们的担心转为防疫限制会阻碍商品的供应和运输，从而推高价格，这也强化了加息的理由。目前，大部分央行开始对高通胀感到不安，2022年收紧货币刺激措施似乎只是时间问题。在发达经济体中，所有国家的加权政策利率在最近几个月从0.07%的历史低点小幅上升至0.14%，17家央行中有6家上调了利率。在疫情之前，发达经济加权政策利率为0.8%，相比之下仍有很大的上升空间。而在新兴市场中，新冠疫情之前，新兴市场加权政策利率为5.5%，仍有一定的加息空间。除非新冠疫情阻碍经济复苏，否则政策利率上升的趋势将在2022年继续下去。此外，美联储于明年加入加息的行列可能会给新兴市场的货币政策带来一定的压力。其中，美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行作为全球货币政策的“风向标”，其政策取向无疑将引领明年全球货币政策的主流。因此，市场对这三大央行也是给予了无比多的关注。美联储：结束Taper已板上钉钉，加息只是快慢问题美国火热的经济正在进一步推高其物价上涨，而且除了能源价格高涨之外，住房价格和服务业成本等走高也反映了美国物价上升具有一定“粘性”。美联储最青睐的通胀指标——核心PCE物价指数指标也持续位于2%目标之上。因此，除非明年疫情再度严重冲击美国经济，不然3月份结束Taper已经是板上钉钉的事情了。市场更加关注的是美联储明年何时加息、加息几次。美联储12月的最新利率点阵图显示，以一次加息25个基点估算，所有与会的18位官员均预计美联储明年将加息。其中，只有一位预计明年加息1次，5位预计明年加息2次，10位预计明年加息3次，2位预计明年加息4次，中值预期落在了明年加息3次之上。以史为鉴，美联储利率点阵图本身就向来以多变而著称，当前的预期并不等于明年的实际行动。不过，根据“联储观察(Fedwatch)”，市场预计美联储可能最早会在明年3月份进行加息，加息一次概率达到53.8%。除此之外，市场预计美联储于明年中旬加息的概率达到91.21%，其中预计加息两次的概率达到41.2%。芝商所FedWatch工具利用30天联邦基金期货定价资料，用以分析联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)未来会议调整利率的可能性。欧洲央行：维持利率不变，换个方式QE在12月的会议上，欧央行行长拉加德称“不太可能在2022年加息”。而且从欧洲央行利率决议和官员发言来看，欧洲央行2022年虽然将结束PEPP，但仍然将保持足够规模购债的灵活性以满足经济增长需求，而且欧洲央行也还计划到期债券的本金再投资。12月会议上，欧洲央行官员对欧元区2023年和2024年的通胀预测仍低于2%。相对美国来说，欧元区的通胀风险确实更低。一是因为欧元区没有像美国那样大规模地发放政府补助，居民收入存在缺口，消费支出肯定不及美国那么强劲。二是因为欧元区整体货币供给扩张的高峰在10%-15%，而美国已经高达25%以上。另外，欧元区的工资增速仍然温和，尚未出现像美国那样的工资加速上涨的情况。因而供给瓶颈是构成欧洲通胀上行风险的主要原因。而且就欧洲央行而言，它还必须考虑到它为之制定政策的欧元区内部存在的重大分歧。任何大规模撤出危机支持的举措，有可能给一些成员国带来债务危机，比如，对意大利等经济体高债务负担的可持续性造成影响。不过，有一些市场参与者担心欧元区物价上涨将持续，已经开始关注欧洲央行2023年政策正常化的可能性;目前，有投资者押注欧洲央行可能在2022年底加息15个基点。英国央行：或加息100个基点，达到关键利率将触发QT根据英镑隔夜指数掉期，市场目前预计，即使在Omicron变种带来的疫情风险之下，由于劳动力市场推动通胀，英国央行到2022年12月将加息100个基点(即关键利率由0.25%升至1.25%)，届时关键利率将自2009年以来首次位于1%水平以上。其次，如果英国央行在明年2月的会议上将利率升至0.5%的关键水平，就可能启动量化紧缩(QT)，即它将停止将到期票据收益进行再投资，从而在债务到期时自动减少其投资组合规模。其次，英国央行的更激进举措将意味着，在利率达到1%之后，可能会积极出售英国国债。货币市场预计，利率将在8月份触及这一水平。不过，鉴于疫情复发威胁到经济前景的风险，交易员们正在揣测英国央行何时以及如何引入这一货币政策。结语货币政策作为对冲经济波动的最核心逆周期调节工具，往往是最有力的手段;与此同时，物价稳定与经济增长在短期内就如“鱼”与“熊掌”一般不可兼得。2021年，在大水漫灌之后，又是在供应短缺的背景下，通胀飙升不可避免地随之而来;通胀高企或是中长期问题。接下来，稳定物价任务已经被摆到各大政策制定者的办公桌上。2022年市场是时候走出货币宽松的“良夜”，炙手可热的经济不可能永远持续，2021年底各大央行已经拉开了收紧政策的序幕。除非新冠疫情这只“黑天鹅”严重打击经济复苏，否则政策利率上升的趋势将在2022年继续下去。随着宽松刺激政策的退出以及经济周期进程，明年各大经济体增长前景可能将面临较大压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"SH":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"APP":1,"TNmain":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"FOMC":1,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097671635,"gmtCreate":1645456247855,"gmtModify":1676534029463,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097671635","repostId":"2213609052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213609052","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645423509,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213609052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 14:05","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"What do all the Federal Reserve rate hike look like?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213609052","media":"文涛宏观债券研究","summary":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>rate hike and shrinking of the Federal Reserve are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and they are also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We launched a series of Fed tightening reports, which systematically combed the previous tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of previous rate hike.</b>The Fed has had a total of six rate hike cycles in the past four decades, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles are rich in types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressure, bubble pressure caused by real estate and stocks, and normalization process after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The shock of oil supply superimposed policy objectives are vague, and the United States has entered a stagflationary a vicious circle. After Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he took inflation control as his core goal and implemented a tough austerity policy. In the early 1980s, he strictly controlled monetary increment, and then turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become the policy goal of the Federal Reserve, and Taylor's rule has been gradually introduced, which has clarified the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation went up, and the Fed responded through the rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>The recession rebounded quickly, and the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the pace of the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, and the bond market turbulently. During this period, the Fed began to increase the guidance of inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia Finance</a>Affected by the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its monetary policy easing policy and began a rate hike, which was followed by the bursting of the Internet bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates as the stock market plunged to trigger a recession. Since then, the economic recovery and rising house prices have triggered fears of asset bubbles, and the Fed has once again started the rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>After the long-term zero interest rate and QE policy, the Federal Reserve began the process of monetary policy normalization. In the early stage, the rhythm of rate hike was cautious, and in the later stage, it was obviously accelerated or even radical. The degree of hawkishness greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Characteristics such as supply shock, soaring prices, overheating demand and policy normalization all seem to be present in this rate hike cycle. The initial stage may be most like 2004, and the short-term rate hike will not be slow, but the rhythm in the second half of the year is still uncertain.</b>Damage to supply chains, rising energy prices, have something in common with the 1980s; Price growth has reached a new high in the past few decades, and the Fed has been forced to respond, similar to the cooling of house prices in 2004; Under government subsidies, consumption is hot and the stock market soars, which is similar to the overheating on the eve of 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, we can't escape the characteristics of 2015. In the short term, since the Fed's core appeal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with the overheating environment of the real estate market in 2004, we judge that the short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the rhythm in the second half of the year still needs to see the marginal changes of the above problems.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>rate hike and shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve have become the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and they are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we launched a series of Fed tightening reports, systematically sorting out the previous tightening processes and market impacts since 1980s, and providing reference for the judgment of this year's trend. The first part of the series, first of all, briefly reviews the basic situation of previous rate hike, including the background, economic and financial situation and policy considerations.</p><p><b>The Fed has had a total of six rate hike cycles in the past four decades, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles, namely 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06 and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, the monetary policy of the United States was in a period of fierce changes, with Keynesianism, monetarism and rational expectation theory leading the way. In response to the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. In the 1990s, the fear of high inflation was completely lifted, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve under Greenspan was mainly based on Taylor's rule, adjusting the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, the global financial market was constantly turbulent. In all crises, the Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly the withdrawal of the previous crisis easing policy. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the degree of global monetary easing is unprecedented in the history. At present, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and inflation has reached new highs, and the market has strong expectations for the continuous and rapid rate hike of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles are rich in types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressure, bubble pressure caused by real estate and stocks, and normalization process after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, it almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain break, economic downturn, high stock price and house price, etc. The above-mentioned rate hike history has valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shock</b></p><p><b>The shock of oil supply superimposed policy objectives are vague, and the United States has entered a stagflationary a vicious circle.</b>In the 1960s-1970s, the dollar system was constantly turbulent. With the two oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, the price of industrial raw materials rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance of the United States with the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States is stuck in a long-term stagflation with persistent double-digit inflation and sluggish employment. In 1964, inflation in the United States was 1% and unemployment was 5%, and it went all the way up, and by 1980, inflation was nearly 14.5% and unemployment was over 7.5%. In the 1970s, under the guidance of Keynes's \"camera choice\", the Federal Reserve constantly weighed between controlling inflation and maintaining employment, resulting in unclear monetary policy goals, \"stop-go\" efforts to control inflation, declining public confidence in economy and government policies, and distorted economic behavior due to high inflation expectations. Until both inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he took inflation control as his core goal and implemented tough austerity policies.</b>Under the background of the \"stagflation era\" that lasted for more than ten years, Paul Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's stop-and-go policy of camera choice, and take inflation control as the most important goal, especially the balance of payments problem brought by its solution.<b>Volcker's policy thinking can be divided into two stages. In the early 1980s, he strictly controlled the incremental currency, and then turned to rate hike.</b></p><p>In 1979-1981, Volcker followed the ideas of monetarism, with the intermediary goal of reducing the money supply and strict control of credit, causing the Federal Funds rate to fluctuate wildly, reaching a high of 20% in 1980, and that year triggering the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. Manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly affected. Housing construction and automobile manufacturing lost 22% and 24% of their jobs at the end of the year, respectively</p><p>With unemployment rising, the Federal Reserve has eased policy slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply strongly, and the Federal Funds rate once again rushed to 20%. As the market expected that the Federal Reserve would not be able to withstand the rising pressure of unemployment rate, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this time, Volcker maintained absolute policy determination, firmly determined that the Federal Reserve would not give in, and kept the established course of restricting money and credit growth unchanged. In 1982, the Federal Reserve redirected its targets towards Federal Funds rate and for the first time began announcing its interest rate targets to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to move lower, falling back below 5% by the end of the recession. Over time, the Fed's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, unemployment retreated, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from the recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. From 1983 to 1984, it continued to rate hike 13 times, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the inflation rate in the United States has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of big inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Responding to upward inflation and the depreciation of the United States dollar</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become the policy goal of the Federal Reserve, and Taylor's rule has been gradually introduced, which has clarified the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the American economy entered a 20-year period of \"the Great Moderation\" with low inflation and high growth. During this period, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management and policy effect. The Fed began to more systematically focus on inflation and output gaps as major monetary policy considerations, known as the \"Taylor Rule.\" When output is above potential levels or inflation is above target, the Fed immediately adopts tightening monetary policy, otherwise it is loose. The \"Taylor's Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate should grow more than inflation, so when inflation rises, the Fed is more decisive and tough in its response.</p><p><b>The dollar depreciates, inflation rises, and the Fed responds through rate hike.</b>From the end of 1986 to the middle of 1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the US dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, from less than 2% to more than 4%, while the overall trend of unemployment rate has been steady and declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% in January-September. In August 1987, Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the U.S. stock market broke out on \"Black Monday\", and the stock market plunged by 20% in one day. To bail out the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut by Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. But the crisis was short-lived. By the end of the year, the stock market rebounded quickly and the economy recovered immediately. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to ease inflation and the pressure of the depreciation of the US dollar. By the end of the current rate hike cycle in 1989, there were 21 rate hike times of 344 basis points, and Federal Funds rate rose to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. 1994.2-1995.2: Prevention of economic overheating</b></p><p><b>The recession rebounded quickly, and the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>In 1990-1991, the U.S. economy entered a recession again. The federal funds target rate dropped from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Since then, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decrease and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve started the rate hike cycle again in early 1994. In the recession around 1991, the recovery was relatively fast, the quarterly GDP growth rate rebounded from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showed a rising trend, the stock market soared, the S&P 500 rose by 47% between 1991 and 1994, and the financial market showed a tendency to overheat.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, and the bond market was in great turmoil.</b>Despite widespread expectations for rate hike, the 1994 rate hike cycle still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of rate hike, as inflation remained at market lows of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, interest rates were urgently increased from 3.50% to 3.75%. Since then, out of concern about overheating and rising inflation, the Fed changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach of 50-75 basis points per rate hike until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, totaling 300 basis points in rate hike seven times. The Fed is tightening more and faster than markets expected. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was nicknamed the \"bond market massacre\" by the media. In the subsequent nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose 220 basis points, along with mortgage rates. Bankruptcy rates have risen sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was then the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Mexico and Argentina are also headed for a financial crisis. The Fed ends its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Fed began to increase guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved in policy communication. Previously, Greenspan has never published any FOMC meeting statements and materials to retain policy flexibility and not have to be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, the FOMC first officially announced its policy changes in February 1994, as the influence of the rational expectation school in the field of policy making expanded. Since then, the Fed has begun to clarify interest rate targets in its statement, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the disruption caused by the Fed's surprise move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: Easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>The Asian financial crisis spread, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the crisis of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russia's debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve cut interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite tremendous volatility in the financial markets, the above events had little impact on the real economy, which continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy is starting to take off, wages are rising, imports are surging, personal consumption is jumping, the CPI is exceeding the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continues to fall near 4%. East Asian and European economies have also shown signs of recovery, and even South American economies have improved. The Internet economy boomed and tech stocks rose sharply, with the Nasdaq moving all the way from 740 in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Fed withdrew its easing, and the Internet bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its monetary policy easing and begin a rate hike, effectively reclaiming the rate cut it had made at the height of the financial crisis a year ago. Despite the good economic trend, investors' expectations for rate hike remain inadequate due to inadequate market communication. In this tightening cycle. Six Fed rate hike, totaling 175 basis points to 6.5%, were followed by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cools down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Fed to easing significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, when the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 85% and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Six and four interest rate cuts were carried out before and after the September 11 terrorist attacks, with 11 cuts in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had been reduced from 6.5 percent to 1 percent, and remained in place until June 2004.</p><p><b>The economic recovery and rising housing prices raise fears of asset bubbles, and the Fed starts the rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, house prices fluctuated and rose, rising 52% in mid-2004 from the 2001 low, and the S&P 500 index also continued to rebound, rising 37% from the 2002 low. It triggers the market's worries about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline. At the same time, the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating higher than the target range of 2%, which increased the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market was prepared for a tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June, 2004, the Fed's rate hike was 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Bernanke became the chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued the tightening cycle. In this round, there were 17 rate hike, 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to take shape, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. 2015.12-2018.12: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>After the long-term zero interest rate and QE policy, the Federal Reserve began the process of monetary policy normalization.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to start cutting its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, as the stock market crashed and the risk of economic recession increased, the FOMC urgently cut interest rates, which started the nine-year road of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% since then. As the economy gradually emerged from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continued to recover, and the unemployment rate fell to around 5% from a high of 10% in 2009. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the employment gap was 100,000 jobs per month, and at that time, the economy actually added more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Federal Reserve judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. At the same time, the inflation level remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Fed started its first rate hike. By December 2018, there were nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate rose to the 2.5% line.</p><p><b>In the early stage, the rhythm of rate hike was cautious, and in the later stage, it was obviously accelerated or even radical.</b>At the beginning of the official opening of the rate hike in 2015, the Fed was more cautious. It only held its second rate hike in December 2016, one year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than the previous market expectation. However, from 2017 to 2018, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve obviously accelerated. Yellen raised interest rates three times in 2017, and then Powell further increased interest rates after taking office. There were four rate hike in 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when the US stock market plummeted, and the degree of hawkishness greatly exceeded market expectations. Since then, with the weakening of the US economy and the volatility of the financial market, the current rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession contributed to the Fed's further strengthening of market communication in monetary policy.</b>Since 2008, Bernanke has been hosting press conferences and giving television interviews after every FOMC meeting. In the current rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has been greatly improved, forward-looking guidance has been paid attention to, and market expectations have been guided to a certain extent. Even so, the taper triggered global market turmoil in the early stages of its inception due to previous unprecedented easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. What year is 2022 more like? Combined with multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Characteristics such as supply shock, soaring prices, overheating demand and policy normalization all seem to be present in this rate hike cycle. The initial stage may be most like 2004, and the short-term rate hike will not be slow, but the rhythm in the second half of the year is still uncertain.</b>The complexity of this rate hike cycle is high, and the current macro background seems to have some core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, the damage to supply chains, the increase in energy prices, very similar to the 1980s (but not yet into stagflation); Price growth has reached a new high in the past few decades, and the Federal Reserve has been forced to respond, exactly as it cooled house prices in 2004; Under government subsidies, consumption is hot and the stock market soars, which is similar to the overheating on the eve of 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, we can't escape the characteristics of 2015. In the short term, since the Fed's core appeal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with the overheating environment of the real estate market in 2004, we judge that the short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the rhythm in the second half of the year still needs to look at the marginal changes of the above problems.</p><p>Risk: Economic growth fell short of expectations, and policy withdrawal exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wthgzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What do all the Federal Reserve rate hike look like?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat do all the Federal Reserve rate hike look like?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">文涛宏观债券研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 14:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>rate hike and shrinking of the Federal Reserve are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and they are also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We launched a series of Fed tightening reports, which systematically combed the previous tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of previous rate hike.</b>The Fed has had a total of six rate hike cycles in the past four decades, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles are rich in types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressure, bubble pressure caused by real estate and stocks, and normalization process after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The shock of oil supply superimposed policy objectives are vague, and the United States has entered a stagflationary a vicious circle. After Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he took inflation control as his core goal and implemented a tough austerity policy. In the early 1980s, he strictly controlled monetary increment, and then turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become the policy goal of the Federal Reserve, and Taylor's rule has been gradually introduced, which has clarified the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation went up, and the Fed responded through the rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>The recession rebounded quickly, and the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the pace of the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, and the bond market turbulently. During this period, the Fed began to increase the guidance of inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia Finance</a>Affected by the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its monetary policy easing policy and began a rate hike, which was followed by the bursting of the Internet bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates as the stock market plunged to trigger a recession. Since then, the economic recovery and rising house prices have triggered fears of asset bubbles, and the Fed has once again started the rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>After the long-term zero interest rate and QE policy, the Federal Reserve began the process of monetary policy normalization. In the early stage, the rhythm of rate hike was cautious, and in the later stage, it was obviously accelerated or even radical. The degree of hawkishness greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Characteristics such as supply shock, soaring prices, overheating demand and policy normalization all seem to be present in this rate hike cycle. The initial stage may be most like 2004, and the short-term rate hike will not be slow, but the rhythm in the second half of the year is still uncertain.</b>Damage to supply chains, rising energy prices, have something in common with the 1980s; Price growth has reached a new high in the past few decades, and the Fed has been forced to respond, similar to the cooling of house prices in 2004; Under government subsidies, consumption is hot and the stock market soars, which is similar to the overheating on the eve of 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, we can't escape the characteristics of 2015. In the short term, since the Fed's core appeal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with the overheating environment of the real estate market in 2004, we judge that the short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the rhythm in the second half of the year still needs to see the marginal changes of the above problems.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>rate hike and shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve have become the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and they are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we launched a series of Fed tightening reports, systematically sorting out the previous tightening processes and market impacts since 1980s, and providing reference for the judgment of this year's trend. The first part of the series, first of all, briefly reviews the basic situation of previous rate hike, including the background, economic and financial situation and policy considerations.</p><p><b>The Fed has had a total of six rate hike cycles in the past four decades, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles, namely 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06 and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, the monetary policy of the United States was in a period of fierce changes, with Keynesianism, monetarism and rational expectation theory leading the way. In response to the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. In the 1990s, the fear of high inflation was completely lifted, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve under Greenspan was mainly based on Taylor's rule, adjusting the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, the global financial market was constantly turbulent. In all crises, the Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly the withdrawal of the previous crisis easing policy. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the degree of global monetary easing is unprecedented in the history. At present, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and inflation has reached new highs, and the market has strong expectations for the continuous and rapid rate hike of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles are rich in types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressure, bubble pressure caused by real estate and stocks, and normalization process after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, it almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain break, economic downturn, high stock price and house price, etc. The above-mentioned rate hike history has valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shock</b></p><p><b>The shock of oil supply superimposed policy objectives are vague, and the United States has entered a stagflationary a vicious circle.</b>In the 1960s-1970s, the dollar system was constantly turbulent. With the two oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, the price of industrial raw materials rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance of the United States with the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States is stuck in a long-term stagflation with persistent double-digit inflation and sluggish employment. In 1964, inflation in the United States was 1% and unemployment was 5%, and it went all the way up, and by 1980, inflation was nearly 14.5% and unemployment was over 7.5%. In the 1970s, under the guidance of Keynes's \"camera choice\", the Federal Reserve constantly weighed between controlling inflation and maintaining employment, resulting in unclear monetary policy goals, \"stop-go\" efforts to control inflation, declining public confidence in economy and government policies, and distorted economic behavior due to high inflation expectations. Until both inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he took inflation control as his core goal and implemented tough austerity policies.</b>Under the background of the \"stagflation era\" that lasted for more than ten years, Paul Volcker took office as chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's stop-and-go policy of camera choice, and take inflation control as the most important goal, especially the balance of payments problem brought by its solution.<b>Volcker's policy thinking can be divided into two stages. In the early 1980s, he strictly controlled the incremental currency, and then turned to rate hike.</b></p><p>In 1979-1981, Volcker followed the ideas of monetarism, with the intermediary goal of reducing the money supply and strict control of credit, causing the Federal Funds rate to fluctuate wildly, reaching a high of 20% in 1980, and that year triggering the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. Manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly affected. Housing construction and automobile manufacturing lost 22% and 24% of their jobs at the end of the year, respectively</p><p>With unemployment rising, the Federal Reserve has eased policy slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply strongly, and the Federal Funds rate once again rushed to 20%. As the market expected that the Federal Reserve would not be able to withstand the rising pressure of unemployment rate, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this time, Volcker maintained absolute policy determination, firmly determined that the Federal Reserve would not give in, and kept the established course of restricting money and credit growth unchanged. In 1982, the Federal Reserve redirected its targets towards Federal Funds rate and for the first time began announcing its interest rate targets to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to move lower, falling back below 5% by the end of the recession. Over time, the Fed's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, unemployment retreated, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from the recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. From 1983 to 1984, it continued to rate hike 13 times, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the inflation rate in the United States has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of big inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Responding to upward inflation and the depreciation of the United States dollar</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become the policy goal of the Federal Reserve, and Taylor's rule has been gradually introduced, which has clarified the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the American economy entered a 20-year period of \"the Great Moderation\" with low inflation and high growth. During this period, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management and policy effect. The Fed began to more systematically focus on inflation and output gaps as major monetary policy considerations, known as the \"Taylor Rule.\" When output is above potential levels or inflation is above target, the Fed immediately adopts tightening monetary policy, otherwise it is loose. The \"Taylor's Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate should grow more than inflation, so when inflation rises, the Fed is more decisive and tough in its response.</p><p><b>The dollar depreciates, inflation rises, and the Fed responds through rate hike.</b>From the end of 1986 to the middle of 1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the US dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, from less than 2% to more than 4%, while the overall trend of unemployment rate has been steady and declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% in January-September. In August 1987, Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the U.S. stock market broke out on \"Black Monday\", and the stock market plunged by 20% in one day. To bail out the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut by Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. But the crisis was short-lived. By the end of the year, the stock market rebounded quickly and the economy recovered immediately. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to ease inflation and the pressure of the depreciation of the US dollar. By the end of the current rate hike cycle in 1989, there were 21 rate hike times of 344 basis points, and Federal Funds rate rose to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. 1994.2-1995.2: Prevention of economic overheating</b></p><p><b>The recession rebounded quickly, and the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>In 1990-1991, the U.S. economy entered a recession again. The federal funds target rate dropped from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Since then, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decrease and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve started the rate hike cycle again in early 1994. In the recession around 1991, the recovery was relatively fast, the quarterly GDP growth rate rebounded from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showed a rising trend, the stock market soared, the S&P 500 rose by 47% between 1991 and 1994, and the financial market showed a tendency to overheat.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, and the bond market was in great turmoil.</b>Despite widespread expectations for rate hike, the 1994 rate hike cycle still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of rate hike, as inflation remained at market lows of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, interest rates were urgently increased from 3.50% to 3.75%. Since then, out of concern about overheating and rising inflation, the Fed changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach of 50-75 basis points per rate hike until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, totaling 300 basis points in rate hike seven times. The Fed is tightening more and faster than markets expected. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was nicknamed the \"bond market massacre\" by the media. In the subsequent nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose 220 basis points, along with mortgage rates. Bankruptcy rates have risen sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was then the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Mexico and Argentina are also headed for a financial crisis. The Fed ends its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Fed began to increase guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved in policy communication. Previously, Greenspan has never published any FOMC meeting statements and materials to retain policy flexibility and not have to be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, the FOMC first officially announced its policy changes in February 1994, as the influence of the rational expectation school in the field of policy making expanded. Since then, the Fed has begun to clarify interest rate targets in its statement, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the disruption caused by the Fed's surprise move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: Easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>The Asian financial crisis spread, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the crisis of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russia's debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve cut interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite tremendous volatility in the financial markets, the above events had little impact on the real economy, which continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy is starting to take off, wages are rising, imports are surging, personal consumption is jumping, the CPI is exceeding the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continues to fall near 4%. East Asian and European economies have also shown signs of recovery, and even South American economies have improved. The Internet economy boomed and tech stocks rose sharply, with the Nasdaq moving all the way from 740 in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Fed withdrew its easing, and the Internet bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its monetary policy easing and begin a rate hike, effectively reclaiming the rate cut it had made at the height of the financial crisis a year ago. Despite the good economic trend, investors' expectations for rate hike remain inadequate due to inadequate market communication. In this tightening cycle. Six Fed rate hike, totaling 175 basis points to 6.5%, were followed by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cools down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Fed to easing significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, when the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 85% and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Six and four interest rate cuts were carried out before and after the September 11 terrorist attacks, with 11 cuts in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had been reduced from 6.5 percent to 1 percent, and remained in place until June 2004.</p><p><b>The economic recovery and rising housing prices raise fears of asset bubbles, and the Fed starts the rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, house prices fluctuated and rose, rising 52% in mid-2004 from the 2001 low, and the S&P 500 index also continued to rebound, rising 37% from the 2002 low. It triggers the market's worries about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline. At the same time, the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating higher than the target range of 2%, which increased the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market was prepared for a tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June, 2004, the Fed's rate hike was 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Bernanke became the chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued the tightening cycle. In this round, there were 17 rate hike, 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to take shape, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. 2015.12-2018.12: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>After the long-term zero interest rate and QE policy, the Federal Reserve began the process of monetary policy normalization.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to start cutting its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, as the stock market crashed and the risk of economic recession increased, the FOMC urgently cut interest rates, which started the nine-year road of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% since then. As the economy gradually emerged from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continued to recover, and the unemployment rate fell to around 5% from a high of 10% in 2009. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the employment gap was 100,000 jobs per month, and at that time, the economy actually added more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Federal Reserve judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. At the same time, the inflation level remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Fed started its first rate hike. By December 2018, there were nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate rose to the 2.5% line.</p><p><b>In the early stage, the rhythm of rate hike was cautious, and in the later stage, it was obviously accelerated or even radical.</b>At the beginning of the official opening of the rate hike in 2015, the Fed was more cautious. It only held its second rate hike in December 2016, one year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than the previous market expectation. However, from 2017 to 2018, the rate hike of the Federal Reserve obviously accelerated. Yellen raised interest rates three times in 2017, and then Powell further increased interest rates after taking office. There were four rate hike in 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when the US stock market plummeted, and the degree of hawkishness greatly exceeded market expectations. Since then, with the weakening of the US economy and the volatility of the financial market, the current rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession contributed to the Fed's further strengthening of market communication in monetary policy.</b>Since 2008, Bernanke has been hosting press conferences and giving television interviews after every FOMC meeting. In the current rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has been greatly improved, forward-looking guidance has been paid attention to, and market expectations have been guided to a certain extent. Even so, the taper triggered global market turmoil in the early stages of its inception due to previous unprecedented easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. What year is 2022 more like? Combined with multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Characteristics such as supply shock, soaring prices, overheating demand and policy normalization all seem to be present in this rate hike cycle. The initial stage may be most like 2004, and the short-term rate hike will not be slow, but the rhythm in the second half of the year is still uncertain.</b>The complexity of this rate hike cycle is high, and the current macro background seems to have some core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, the damage to supply chains, the increase in energy prices, very similar to the 1980s (but not yet into stagflation); Price growth has reached a new high in the past few decades, and the Federal Reserve has been forced to respond, exactly as it cooled house prices in 2004; Under government subsidies, consumption is hot and the stock market soars, which is similar to the overheating on the eve of 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, we can't escape the characteristics of 2015. In the short term, since the Fed's core appeal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with the overheating environment of the real estate market in 2004, we judge that the short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the rhythm in the second half of the year still needs to look at the marginal changes of the above problems.</p><p>Risk: Economic growth fell short of expectations, and policy withdrawal exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w\">文涛宏观债券研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","09979":"绿城管理控股","BK1148":"建筑与工程","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213609052","content_text":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基本情况。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。1．1983.3-1984.9：石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。2.1987.1-1989.7：通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。这一时期美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。3.1994.2-1995.2：衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。随后联储加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。这一时期，美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。4.1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机波及下，联储降息应对。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，随之而来的是科网泡沫破裂。5.2004.6-2006.6：2001年，随着股市暴跌引发衰退，美联储大幅降息。此后经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储再次开启加息进程。6.2015.12-2018.12：长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。鹰派程度大超市场预期。本轮加息更像哪一年？供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代有共同之处；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温相似；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需看上述问题边际变化。正文美联储加息和缩表成为今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是影响国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。为此，我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响，为今年走势的判断提供借鉴。系列第一篇，首先简单回顾历次加息的基本情况，包括背景、所面临的经济金融形势及政策考虑。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。上世纪80年代以来，美联储共有6次显著的加息周期，分别是1983-84、1987-89、1993-95、1999-00、2004-06及2015-17。上世纪70-80年代，美国货币政策处于激烈变动期，凯恩斯主义、货币主义、理性预期理论各领风骚，为应对长期的滞涨问题，美联储主席沃尔克执行了坚定的货币紧缩。进入90年代，高通胀的担忧彻底解除，格林斯潘执掌下的美联储货币政策主要基于泰勒规则，对经济周期和通胀进行调节。90年代末至21世纪，全球金融市场不断动荡，历次危机中美联储都积极降息，而其后的加息周期主要是对此前危机宽松政策的撤回。2015年，耶伦领导下的美联储在全球金融危机和大衰退后消退后实施了货币政策正常化。2020-21年，全球货币宽松程度史上前所未见，当前美国面临经济的强劲复苏和通胀连创新高，市场对美联储连续和快速加息的预期强烈。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。由于当下加息周期的复杂性，几乎同时包含了高通胀、供应链断裂、经济下行、股价房价高位等多重因素，上述加息历史具有宝贵参考信息。1. 1983.3-1984.9：原油供给冲击带来的滞胀困局石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。20世纪60-70年代，美元体系不断动荡。伴随着1973-1975年和1979-1982年两次石油危机和两伊战争，全球石油产量缩减，工业原材料价格上涨，商业投资放缓，生产率下降，美国与世界其他国家的贸易平衡恶化。美国通胀持续达两位数而就业不振，陷入长期滞涨的困境。1964年，美国通胀率1%，失业率5%，此后一路上行，到1980年，通货膨胀率接近14.5%，失业率超过7.5% 。70年代，美联储在凯恩斯“相机抉择”的思想指导下，不断在控制通胀和保就业两方面权衡，造成货币政策目标不清晰，控制通胀的努力“走走停停”（stop-go），公众对经济和政府政策的信心不断下降，通胀预期高企导致经济行为发生扭曲。直到通胀和失业率最终都达到令人无法接受的高位。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策。在长达十数年的“滞涨时代”背景下，1979年8月保罗·沃尔克就任美联储主席，决心结束美联储相机抉择、走走停停的政策，将控制通货膨胀作为最重要目标，特别是其解决带来的国际收支平衡问题。沃尔克的政策思路可以分为两阶段，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。1979-1981年，沃尔克遵循货币主义的思想，以降低货币供给量为中介目标，对信贷进行严格控制，导致联邦基金利率大幅波动，在1980年达到20%的高点，并在当年引发自大萧条以来美国最严重的经济衰退，失业率达到近11%的峰值，一直持续到1982年11月。制造业、建筑业和汽车业受到的影响尤为严重。住宅建筑业和汽车制造业年底分别失业22%和24%随着失业率的上升，美联储的政策略微有所放松。但随着1980年下半年经济出现企稳迹象，美联储继续强力收紧货币供给，联邦基金利率再次冲上20%，由于市场预期美联储无法承受失业率上升压力，长期利率仍持续上升，反映了通胀预期的恶化。此时，沃尔克保持了绝对的政策定力，坚定美联储不会让步，保持限制货币和信贷增长的既定路线不变。1982年，美联储重新将目标转向联邦基金利率，并首次开始公布其利率目标，以引导市场预期。但通胀继续走低，到经济衰退结束时，通胀率回落到5%以下。随着时间的推移，美联储对低通胀的承诺赢得了公信力，失业率回落，经济进入了一个持续增长和稳定的时期。随着经济走出衰退，1983年3月-1984年9月，美联储继续实施加息以稳固通胀预期，在1983-1984年间持续加息13次，共加息275基点，此后美国通胀率基本维持在5%以下，标志着大通胀时代结束。2. 1987.1-1989.7：应对通胀上行和美元贬值通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。20世纪80年代中期以后，美国经济进入长达20年的低通胀、高增长的“大缓和”时期（the Great Moderation）。该时期美联储货币政策在政策规则、预期管理和政策效果方面都有所改善。美联储开始更系统地将通胀和产出缺口作为货币政策的主要考虑因素，即“泰勒规则”。当产出高于潜在水平或通胀高于目标，美联储随即采取紧缩货币政策，反之则宽松。“泰勒规则”意味着联邦基金利率增长幅度应超过通胀率增长幅度，因此通胀率上升时，美联储的应对措施更加果断和强硬。美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。1986年底-1987年中，由于里根政府持续的美元贬值以促进贸易的政策，导致美国国内通胀再次快速走高，从低于2%飚升至4%以上，而失业率总体趋势已连续5年稳中有降。1987年初，美联储开始提高利率以对抗通胀，1-9月利率从5.8%升至7.3%。1987年8月，格林斯潘就任美联储主席，10月，美股爆发“黑色星期一”，股市一天内暴跌20%。为了救市，格林斯潘宣布联邦基金利率紧急下调50基点至6.75%，1988年利率继续下降到6.5%。但这场危机是短暂的，到年底股市迅速反弹，经济也随即复苏。美联储继续提高利率以缓解通胀和美元贬值压力，到1989年本轮加息周期结束，共计加息21次344个基点，联邦基金利率升至9.3%。3. 1994.2-1995.2：防经济过热衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。1990-1991，美国经济再度进入衰退。联邦基金目标利率从9%降至1992年3%，并持续维持低位。此后，随着经济改善，失业率持续降低，通胀也保持低位，美联储于1994年初再度开启加息周期。在91年前后的衰退中复苏比较快，GDP季度增长率从负值反弹至4%-5%，10年期国债收益率出现抬头趋势，股市飙升，标普500在1991年至1994年间上涨47%，金融市场出现过热倾向。加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。尽管市场对加息已有广泛预期，但由于通胀率始终维持在3%左右的市场低位，6.5%的失业率也尚未回到衰退前水平，因此1994年的加息周期在加息的时间和幅度方面仍出乎投资者意料。1994年4月，利率从3.50%紧急提高到3.75%。此后，出于对经济过热和通胀上升的担忧，美联储改变了其每次加息25基点的渐进方法，采取了更为激进的方法，每次加息50-75基点，直至1995年2月，联邦基金利率上升到6.00%，共计加息7次300个基点。美联储较市场预期的紧缩幅度更大，速度也更快。利率的超预期上升引发债券市场动荡，被媒体戏称为“债券市场大屠杀”。在随后的9个月里，10年期美国国债利率上升了220基点，抵押贷款利率也随之上升。世界范围内的破产率急剧上升，加州奥兰治县（Orange County）当时是美国历史上最大的市政破产案。墨西哥和阿根廷也走向金融危机。美联储结束加息周期。美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。这一时期，美联储在政策沟通方面有所提升。此前，格林斯潘从未公布任何FOMC会议声明和材料，以保留政策灵活性，不必受此前声明的束缚。90年代，随着理性预期学派在政策制定领域影响扩大，FOMC于1994年2月首次正式官方宣布其政策变动。此后，联储在声明中开始明确利率目标，从而管理通胀预期，并将美联储意外之举造成的破坏降至最低。4. 1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机后的宽松到收紧亚洲金融危机波及，联储降息应对。为应对东南亚金融危机危机、俄罗斯债务违约和长期资本管理公司（LTCM）破产对市场的猛烈冲击，美联储在1998年夏季和初秋将利率从5.5%下调至4.75%。尽管金融市场出现了巨大的波动，但上述事件对实体经济影响不大，经济继续强劲增长。美国经济开始腾飞，工资上涨，进口激增，个人消费大幅增长，CPI超过2%的政策目标，失业率持续降至4%附近。东亚和欧洲经济也显示出复苏的迹象，甚至南美经济也有所改善。互联网经济蓬勃发展，科技股大幅上涨，纳斯达克指数从1997年的740点一路走高，至2000年3月站上5030的高点。联储收回宽松，科网泡沫破裂。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，实际上是收回一年前金融危机最严重时的降息幅度。尽管经济走势良好，但由于市场沟通不足，投资者对加息的预期仍不充分。在这一紧缩周期。美联储加息6次，共175个基点到6.5%，紧随而来的是2001年的科技股泡沫破裂。5. 2004.6-2006.6：房地产降温股市暴跌和恐怖袭击事件促使联储大幅宽松。2000年至2002年间，科技泡沫破灭，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌了85%，商业投资急剧收缩。为了防止更严重的衰退，2001年1月3日，美联储主席格林斯潘出人意料地宣布降息0.50%至6%。9·11恐怖袭击前后又分别进行了6次和4次降息，2001年共降息11次，到2003年6月，利率已从6.5%降至1%，并一直保持到2004年6月。经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储开启加息进程。随着利率长期保持低位，房价震荡上升，2004年中较2001年低点上涨52%，标普500指数亦持续反弹，较2002年低点回升37%。引发市场对资产泡沫、房地产泡沫的担忧。这段时期失业率维持在6%以下并持续下降，同时CPI逐渐抬头，震荡走高至2%的目标区间以上，加大了联储加息的决心。市场为2004年至2006年的紧缩周期做好了准备。2004年6月，联储加息25个基点至1.25%，2006年伯南克就任美联储主席，继续紧缩周期，本轮共加息17次，425个基点至5.25%。2007年上半年，美联储意识到次贷危机初现端倪，本轮加息周期结束。6. 2015.12-2018.12：“大衰退”后的货币政策正常化长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。2007年8月，次贷危机促使美联储开始下调联邦基金利率，2008年1月随着股市崩盘，经济衰退风险增加，FOMC紧急降息，开启了9年的全球货币宽松之路。2008年底，美国出台了激进的零利率政策，此后基准利率一直维持在0%-0.25%的水平。随着经济逐渐从危机中走出，美国劳动力市场持续复苏，失业率从09年高点的10%降至5%左右。2015年中，美联储判断就业缺口为每月10万个就业岗位，而当时经济实际每月新增就业岗位超20万，因此美联储判断经济已经实现实质性的复苏。与此同时，通胀水平维持在2%上下区间震荡。同年底，联储开始首次加息，至2018年12月，共加息9次225个基点，联邦基金利率升至2.5%一线。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。2015年正式开启加息初期，联储态度较为谨慎，在2016年12月才进行第二次加息，与首次加息前后时隔一年，大幅低于此前的市场预期。然而，2017-2018年，美联储的加息速度明显加快，耶伦在2017年加息3次，随后鲍威尔上任后进一步加码，2018年全年四次加息，尤其是在美股大跌的2018年底仍然选择了进一步紧缩，鹰派程度大超市场预期。此后，随着美国经济走弱、金融市场波动，本轮加息周期至2019年3季度结束。次贷危机和大衰退促成了美联储在货币政策的市场沟通方面进一步加强。2008年起，伯南克开始在每次FOMC会议后主持召开新闻发布会，并接受电视采访。在本轮加息周期中，货币政策透明度大幅提升，前瞻性指引受到重视，市场预期在一定程度上得到引导。即便如此，由于此前的宽松幅度前所未有，缩减在开始的初期仍引发了全球市场动荡。7、2022年更像哪一年？兼具多种特点供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。本轮加息周期的复杂性较高，目前的宏观背景似乎兼具此前6轮周期中的一些核心特点。例如，供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代极为相似（但目前尚未进入滞胀）；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温如出一辙；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需要看上述问题的边际变化。风险提示：经济增长不达预期，政策退出超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.6,"09979":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093480904,"gmtCreate":1643685838224,"gmtModify":1676533844185,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093480904","repostId":"1121905464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121905464","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642411108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121905464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 17:18","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, and the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are requested to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Open as usual.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Open as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Southbound Connect will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Service will not be available Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>Service will not be available Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, and the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are requested to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Open as usual.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Open as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Southbound Connect will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Service will not be available Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>Service will not be available Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"STI.SI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}