5207418 Ansome personal page - To The Moon

5207418 Ansome

5207418 Ansome

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02-26 10:21

$甘李药业(603087)$ good

02-17

$甘李药业(603087)$ good

02-17

$海康威视(002415)$

2024-07-10

$上证50ETF(510050)$

2023-12-29

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Hong Kong stocks opened | The Hang Seng Index opened 0.13% higher, and the KSI opened 0.38% higher! Tech, Auto Stocks Extend Rally

2023-04-19

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2023-04-18

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2023-04-17

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2023-04-16

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2023-04-15

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2023-04-14

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2023-04-13

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2023-04-12

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2023-04-11

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2023-04-10

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2023-04-08

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2023-04-04

[开心]

@TigerEvents:【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher

2023-03-28

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@Tiger_Insights:Institution Views: Comprehensive Review of March FOMC Meeting

2023-03-28

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@JC888:US Market on 23 Mar 2023. Get Out Of Bank Stocks ?

2023-03-28

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@MillionaireTiger:Why Buy BRK.B During Crisis, Learn 15 High Capital Efficiency Stocks Now

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Tech, Auto Stocks Extend Rally","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193609126","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月29日，港股开盘，恒指开涨0.13%，科指开涨0.38%。科技、汽车股延续涨势，美团涨2%领涨蓝筹，蔚来、小鹏汽车涨超2%。优必选上市首日低开0.11%，每股定价90港元，公开发售获5.16倍认购。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On December 29, the Hang Seng Index opened up 22.99 points, or 0.13%, to 17066.52 points; The Hang Seng Technology Index opened up 14.12 points, or 0.38%, to 3778.02 points; The China Enterprise Index opened up 15.68 points, or 0.27%, to 5780.45 points; The red chip index opened down 1.03 points, or 0.03%, to 3325.84 points.</p><p>Technology and auto stocks continued their gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Up 2% to lead the blue chip gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Rose nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09880\">UBTECH</a>On the first day of listing, open low was 0.11%, priced at HK $90 per share, and the public offering was subscribed 5.16 times.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks opened | The Hang Seng Index opened 0.13% higher, and the KSI opened 0.38% higher! Tech, Auto Stocks Extend Rally</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks opened | The Hang Seng Index opened 0.13% higher, and the KSI opened 0.38% higher! Tech, Auto Stocks Extend Rally\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-12-29 09:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On December 29, the Hang Seng Index opened up 22.99 points, or 0.13%, to 17066.52 points; The Hang Seng Technology Index opened up 14.12 points, or 0.38%, to 3778.02 points; The China Enterprise Index opened up 15.68 points, or 0.27%, to 5780.45 points; The red chip index opened down 1.03 points, or 0.03%, to 3325.84 points.</p><p>Technology and auto stocks continued their gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>Up 2% to lead the blue chip gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Rose nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09880\">UBTECH</a>On the first day of listing, open low was 0.11%, priced at HK $90 per share, and the public offering was subscribed 5.16 times.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193609126","content_text":"12月29日，恒生指数开盘上涨22.99点，涨幅0.13%，报17066.52点；恒生科技指数开盘上涨14.12点，涨幅0.38%，报3778.02点；国企指数开盘上涨15.68点，涨幅0.27%，报5780.45点；红筹指数开盘下跌1.03点，跌幅0.03%，报3325.84点。科技、汽车股延续涨势，美团-W涨2%领涨蓝筹，哔哩哔哩-W涨近3%，蔚来-SW、小鹏汽车-W涨超2%。优必选上市首日低开0.11%，每股定价90港元，公开发售获5.16倍认购。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.6,"HSImain":1,"02833":0.6,"HSTECH":1.1,"HHImain":0.6,"HSI":1,"MCHmain":0.6,"MHImain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944514737,"gmtCreate":1681914074629,"gmtModify":1681914078960,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944514737","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944684023,"gmtCreate":1681828065163,"gmtModify":1681828069636,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 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Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941100027,"gmtCreate":1680010864969,"gmtModify":1680010868751,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fair","listText":"fair","text":"fair","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941100027","repostId":"9943701439","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943701439,"gmtCreate":1679670973722,"gmtModify":1679749109925,"author":{"id":"4136444024316022","authorId":"4136444024316022","name":"Tiger_Insights","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4136444024316022","idStr":"4136444024316022"},"themes":[],"title":"Institution Views: Comprehensive Review of March FOMC Meeting","htmlText":"Fed&nbsp;announced&nbsp;to&nbsp;increase&nbsp;25&nbsp;bps&nbsp;after&nbsp;March FOMC meetin.&nbsp;Before we talk about the comments of the intitutions, let's look&nbsp;at&nbsp;the basic facts.I. Basic facts1. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, and its Fed&nbsp;Fund&nbsp;rate expectation (dot plot) is a bit more hawkish compared with the December FOMC last year:the median benchmark rate expectation is 5.1% at the end of 2023, the same as the December FOMC;the median benchmark rate expectation is 4.3% at the end of 2024, higher than the December FOMC's 4.1%.Source: BloombergHowever, the market clearly does not agree&nbsp;with&nbsp;Fed's hawkish&nbsp;stance. Both Fed rate futures and the OIS are pricing in the Fed cutting rates to around 4% by the end of this y","listText":"Fed&nbsp;announced&nbsp;to&nbsp;increase&nbsp;25&nbsp;bps&nbsp;after&nbsp;March FOMC meetin.&nbsp;Before we talk about the comments of the intitutions, let's look&nbsp;at&nbsp;the basic facts.I. Basic facts1. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, and its Fed&nbsp;Fund&nbsp;rate expectation (dot plot) is a bit more hawkish compared with the December FOMC last year:the median benchmark rate expectation is 5.1% at the end of 2023, the same as the December FOMC;the median benchmark rate expectation is 4.3% at the end of 2024, higher than the December FOMC's 4.1%.Source: BloombergHowever, the market clearly does not agree&nbsp;with&nbsp;Fed's hawkish&nbsp;stance. Both Fed rate futures and the OIS are pricing in the Fed cutting rates to around 4% by the end of this y","text":"Fed announced to increase 25 bps after March FOMC meetin. Before we talk about the comments of the intitutions, let's look at the basic facts.I. Basic facts1. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, and its Fed Fund rate expectation (dot plot) is a bit more hawkish compared with the December FOMC last year:the median benchmark rate expectation is 5.1% at the end of 2023, the same as the December FOMC;the median benchmark rate expectation is 4.3% at the end of 2024, higher than the December FOMC's 4.1%.Source: BloombergHowever, the market clearly does not agree with Fed's hawkish stance. Both Fed rate futures and the OIS are pricing in the Fed cutting rates to around 4% by the end of this y","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b4ca4dbcb3975ed13418cecfef3e3bf7","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/198255cb38bdaf6a1f337ca2195d764b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d1ebc8ff89a5fb8ff3e37c078d35f1f","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943701439","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941377745,"gmtCreate":1680010832087,"gmtModify":1680010835668,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941377745","repostId":"9943567143","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943567143,"gmtCreate":1679570491584,"gmtModify":1679571123225,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1f15eae4f682dc4cb91bfca455452752","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570103090255456","idStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"US Market on 23 Mar 2023. Get Out Of Bank Stocks ?","htmlText":"US market on Wed (22 Mar) traded directionlessly until 2:00pm when the FOMC meeting was over with the press conference by Mr Powell, hot on the heels. When the 0.25% interest hike was confirmed, market “reacted positively” initially. It was afterall the much anticipated 0.25% and not the much feared 0.5%. The “euphoria” proved to be short-lived as the press conference pressed on with Mr Powell further confirming that there would be no let down from the central bank in their fight to bring inflation down. Personally I think, it is commendable that the Fed Reserves provides a clear direction of where they are heading without being ambiguous. Doing so minimizes “speculations” of any sorts to be postulated by Wall Street to smoke-screen and “fool” the general public. Agree ? By The Time Market","listText":"US market on Wed (22 Mar) traded directionlessly until 2:00pm when the FOMC meeting was over with the press conference by Mr Powell, hot on the heels. When the 0.25% interest hike was confirmed, market “reacted positively” initially. It was afterall the much anticipated 0.25% and not the much feared 0.5%. The “euphoria” proved to be short-lived as the press conference pressed on with Mr Powell further confirming that there would be no let down from the central bank in their fight to bring inflation down. Personally I think, it is commendable that the Fed Reserves provides a clear direction of where they are heading without being ambiguous. Doing so minimizes “speculations” of any sorts to be postulated by Wall Street to smoke-screen and “fool” the general public. Agree ? By The Time Market","text":"US market on Wed (22 Mar) traded directionlessly until 2:00pm when the FOMC meeting was over with the press conference by Mr Powell, hot on the heels. When the 0.25% interest hike was confirmed, market “reacted positively” initially. It was afterall the much anticipated 0.25% and not the much feared 0.5%. The “euphoria” proved to be short-lived as the press conference pressed on with Mr Powell further confirming that there would be no let down from the central bank in their fight to bring inflation down. Personally I think, it is commendable that the Fed Reserves provides a clear direction of where they are heading without being ambiguous. Doing so minimizes “speculations” of any sorts to be postulated by Wall Street to smoke-screen and “fool” the general public. Agree ? By The Time Market","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8721d1e3c6b3e10297c5e7e506c9a220","width":"971","height":"210"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf594809a4292a741d188a061dfd92f8","width":"999","height":"395"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/37c7af3cf304e8a9bb1ed31ad40dc300","width":"1503","height":"374"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943567143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941377286,"gmtCreate":1680010811946,"gmtModify":1680010815345,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558103634041715","idStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"god","listText":"god","text":"god","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941377286","repostId":"9943235570","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943235570,"gmtCreate":1679473953190,"gmtModify":1679551479323,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667618821228","idStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"Why Buy BRK.B During Crisis, Learn 15 High Capital Efficiency Stocks Now","htmlText":"Morningstar notes: Buy Berkshire Hathaway <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.B\">$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ </a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.A\">$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ </a>stock for Warren Buffett’s steady hand during crises.Why?The company's long history of aiding failing banks is one reason for investors to buy Berkshire Hathaway.Recently, the market has noticed that The “Oracle of Omaha” has been in contact with the Biden administration in recent days about possibly investing in regional banks in some way.“On multiple occasions over the past two decades we have seen firms seek out capital from Berkshire on the belief that the ‘Buffett Seal of Approval’ that came with that capital injection would reduce the pressure on their shares,” Mornings","listText":"Morningstar notes: Buy Berkshire Hathaway <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.B\">$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ </a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.A\">$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ </a>stock for Warren Buffett’s steady hand during crises.Why?The company's long history of aiding failing banks is one reason for investors to buy Berkshire Hathaway.Recently, the market has noticed that The “Oracle of Omaha” has been in contact with the Biden administration in recent days about possibly investing in regional banks in some way.“On multiple occasions over the past two decades we have seen firms seek out capital from Berkshire on the belief that the ‘Buffett Seal of Approval’ that came with that capital injection would reduce the pressure on their shares,” Mornings","text":"Morningstar notes: Buy Berkshire Hathaway $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ stock for Warren Buffett’s steady hand during crises.Why?The company's long history of aiding failing banks is one reason for investors to buy Berkshire Hathaway.Recently, the market has noticed that The “Oracle of Omaha” has been in contact with the Biden administration in recent days about possibly investing in regional banks in some way.“On multiple occasions over the past two decades we have seen firms seek out capital from Berkshire on the belief that the ‘Buffett Seal of Approval’ that came with that capital injection would reduce the pressure on their shares,” Mornings","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2104ff58bcac2dc40785afe2e00bf238","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46342172d1b52936dce1b24132c811bc","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943235570","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":536784625071568,"gmtCreate":1772072511907,"gmtModify":1772072515679,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/603087\">$甘李药业(603087)$ </a> good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/603087\">$甘李药业(603087)$ </a> good","text":"$甘李药业(603087)$ good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a79fbc06cf9055e2fea3bdc16f39c10c","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/536784625071568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089735027,"gmtCreate":1650032785242,"gmtModify":1676534632699,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SENS\">$Senseonics Holdings,Inc.(SENS)$</a>wait for it","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SENS\">$Senseonics Holdings,Inc.(SENS)$</a>wait for it","text":"$Senseonics Holdings,Inc.(SENS)$wait for it","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81e7b76341d12ad7bd6fed933dc18cf4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089735027","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011985015,"gmtCreate":1648803862790,"gmtModify":1676534401323,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>buy","text":"$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$buy","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/60372d00325aaf6603bd63346531a9b9","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011985015","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098028666,"gmtCreate":1643978644007,"gmtModify":1676533877988,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098028666","repostId":"1159530168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159530168","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643941703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159530168?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-04 10:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The Winter Olympics opens today, and I see a trillion-level investment opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159530168","media":"投中网","summary":"“科技冬奥”成为了北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主要特色。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>\"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics.</b>On the evening of February 4th, the opening ceremony of the 24th Winter Olympic Games was held at the National Stadium. As a result, Beijing will become the only city in the world that has hosted both the Summer Olympic Games and the Winter Olympics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2642a40bccd5e127fa718128d6d254bd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that, unlike the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics are naturally affected by factors such as environment and climate. At the same time, this Winter Olympics is the first Winter Olympics held under the background of continental monsoon climate in the past 20 years. In addition, the current global novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, and the overall difficulty of holding it can be imagined.</p><p>For example, with the support of multiple data and machine learning, combined with bioinformatics and other disciplines, the team from Tsinghua has designed an epidemic monitoring and early warning system that can be used for closed-loop management of the Winter Olympics. Assuming a sudden epidemic during the Games, it can timely and accurately screen out high-risk groups, susceptible areas, susceptible behaviors and weak points of epidemic prevention and control, etc., and use science and technology to build an epidemic prevention technical barrier for the Winter Olympics.</p><p>Earlier, the director of the expert committee of \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" said in an exclusive interview with Phoenix TV: \"After the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic, security issues have been placed in a very prominent position in the process of preparing for the Winter Olympics. The research results of researchers can not only be applied to this Winter Olympics, but also be valuable experience for social epidemic prevention and control and other large-scale international activities.\"</p><p>Such a thing is only the tip of the iceberg in the preparation process of the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to the data published in the Application Guidelines for Key Special Targeted Projects of the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\", in order to support the successful completion and landing of the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" project, the total estimated state funds for 2018-2021 are about 1.49 billion yuan.</p><p>According to data from the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission, more than 200 technologies have been tested and used in the Winter Olympics scene, involving information engineering and software engineering, public safety, high-definition video, 5G and new energy.</p><p>It is precisely because of this that the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics. Some industry comments even said that this year's Beijing Winter Olympics will become a world-class science and technology exhibition.</p><p>Take the torch \"flying\" of this Winter Olympics as an example. It is reported that the torch was designed by Li Jianye, the chief industrial designer of Alibaba. He said that the torch shell pioneered the use of lightweight and high-temperature \"carbon fiber\" material, which is not only fire-resistant and high-temperature resistant, but also resistant to Grade 10 strong winds and rainstorms. At the same time, the torch also uses environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel, which makes the carbon emission of the torch \"zero\".</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital renminbi, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robotics and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious, which may bring a trillion-level investment opportunity.</p><p><b>Infrastructure colored by technology</b></p><p>When it comes to competitions, the first thing many people pay attention to is the venue. From the well-known Bird's Nest and Water Cube to the ice ribbon and snow dragon that have entered the public's sight in this Winter Olympics, each unique design embodies ingenuity and wisdom.</p><p>Different from the past, in order to better welcome this Winter Olympics, each competition venue has carried out some \"technology\" packaging. For example, as the only newly-built ice venue in Beijing competition area, National Speed Skating Oval \"Ice Ribbon\" adopts the single-layer two-way orthogonal saddle-shaped cable net roof with the largest span in the world, and the steel consumption is only 1/4 of that of the traditional roof.</p><p>Similarly, the National Snowmobile and Sled Center, known as \"Snow Dragon\", adopts \"millimeter-level\" hyperboloid concrete spraying and finishing molding technology, and the 1.9-kilometer track is sprayed and poured at one time. With the blessing of technology, Water Cube realized the site conversion of \"water to ice\" within 20 days. With the help of the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence technology, the Bird's Nest has also transformed into a digital, low-carbon and intelligent sports venue.</p><p>Of course, the above is only a small part of many technological Winter Olympics competition venues, but it is enough to see that this Winter Olympics has started its scientific and technological layout from the most basic facilities.</p><p>In addition to the venues, the most inseparable thing for the Winter Olympics is ice and snow. As we mentioned at the beginning, Beijing belongs to the continental monsoon climate zone. Therefore, there are two \"black technologies\" in this Winter Olympics-artificial snow and \"the fastest ice surface\".</p><p>It is understood that this Winter Olympics will be the first Olympic Games in history that uses 100% artificial snow. The characteristic of artificial snow is that the ice content is high, which is 20% higher than that of natural snow. This characteristic also brings both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, artificial snow may increase the possibility of athletes' injuries; on the other hand, artificial snow can overcome the differences in snow field characteristics and make competition fairer.</p><p>What's more, the \"Ice Ribbon\" venue also creatively adopts carbon dioxide transcritical direct cooling ice-making technology, which ensures constant ice temperature and better ice quality, thus becoming the \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>If the venues and ice and snow environment are still artificially controllable factors, then the climate change in the Winter Olympics is a change factor that cannot be ignored. The reason behind this is that 70% of the events in the Winter Olympics are snow events, and most of them are snow events. Snow events are held in mountainous areas with complex terrain.</p><p>Therefore, meteorological support has become the top priority of ice and snow sports. So far, the meteorological support project has achieved certain scientific and technological innovation achievements, especially the \"100-meter-level and minute-level\" forecast for the first time. As we all know, even if we are in plain areas, it is impossible for the current weather software to achieve \"100-meter-level and minute-level\", but in mountainous areas, it is even more arduous to face technical challenges to this extent.</p><p>In general event venues, security work will use a lot of physical fence protection or a lot of manpower. However, the Winter Olympics competitions are mostly held in deep mountains with complex terrain, harsh climate and environmental conditions, and the temperature difference between day and night is as high as tens of degrees. Therefore, the application of intelligent sentinel robots was born.</p><p>By deploying intelligent sentinel robots in the Zhangjiakou competition area of this Winter Olympics, it can automatically and accurately determine the category of intruders in daily monitoring, and upload the monitored situation or the whereabouts of intruders to the background command center, effectively improving the efficiency of security staff and ensuring the safety of the Winter Olympics venue. Its lowest tolerance to low temperatures is more than minus 40 degrees.</p><p>At Wukesong Sports Center, an ice hockey arena in Beijing, there are also service robots officially on duty. It is understood that 12 security service robots provide contactless ticket check-in for the audience to enter the venue, and can complete 8 processes such as identity verification, intelligent temperature measurement, health code inquiry and vaccination inquiry within 1 second. Outside the venue, four intelligent service robots provide information guidance, interactive Q&A, and full-process Winter Olympics explanation.</p><p>In addition, my country has developed the first domestic 5G + 8K OB truck and put it into use, which will provide the public with high-quality off-site viewing services. In this way, the upcoming 8K channel will give viewers the opportunity to watch 8K games on TV during the games, and also have the opportunity to see ultra-high-definition pictures through 8K terminals in Winter Olympics venues, city squares and other places.</p><p><b>Everywhere smart living</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the core of sports competition is people. How to help athletes play better in training, life and competition with the help of scientific and technological means is fundamental.</p><p>Take curling, in which the Chinese team won two consecutive victories two days before the start of the competition, as an example. In 2019, curling robots began to be developed. This project is a national key special project of the Ministry of Science and Technology's \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\". Curling robots use advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, image recognition and automatic control to make up for the deficiency of curling tactical analysis methods and assist athletes in training.</p><p>In terms of food, the Beijing Winter Olympics uses self-developed ultra-micro trusted chips, combined with the non-tampering and traceability characteristics of the blockchain, to build a food safety guarantee platform for the Winter Olympics, which provides strong support for the catering service of the Winter Olympics.</p><p>It is undeniable that before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robot applications have been accompanied by smart restaurants, and have been screened on major social media platforms. Robots are no longer a new species. Why can they get such high attention?</p><p>It turns out that the smart restaurant is located in the main media center of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The restaurant covers an area of more than 3,680 square meters, which is divided into an automatic bar area, a Chinese food cloud track area and a media dining area. It is understood that the smart restaurant is equipped with 120 meal-making robots. The intelligent and automated catering equipment in the restaurant can run 24 hours a day, ensuring that the whole process of ordering, preparing and serving is automated, and can serve thousands of people at the same time.</p><p>Surprisingly, there are no chefs or waiters to serve food in the restaurant. Chinese and western food cooking and cocktail preparation are all done by robots. Diners scan a QR code on the table to order, and then a robot chef in the kitchen begins making it. All robots are behind clear glass, so everyone can see the cooking process.</p><p>Finally, the robot completes the entire food delivery process, and the dishes will be delivered through the cloud rail system at the top of the restaurant. When the robot moves above the desired dining table, a tray containing food will \"fall from the sky\" with the lowered cable and hover in front of people for their use. According to the video, the way of serving food is somewhat similar to that of \"weightless\" restaurants.</p><p>Robots working in restaurants are just the tip of the iceberg of robot applications throughout the Winter Olympics.</p><p>In terms of epidemic prevention, high-efficiency disinfection scenarios include atomization disinfection robots, material distribution scenarios include distribution robots, cleaning robots responsible for intelligent cleaning, inspection robots responsible for reminding and disinfection services and many other types.</p><p>For example, the disinfection robot of Water Cube can automatically avoid obstacles and charge itself. Through the intelligent disinfection system built by AI big data, the venue disinfection can be visualized, digitized, and traceable, which can meet the needs of nearly 8,600 square meters in different areas of the venue. Cleaning and disinfection of public areas.</p><p>The Beijing Winter Olympics has also built an arrival and departure information system. On the basis of information technologies such as big data and cloud computing, it provides arrival and departure services for 32,000 Olympic customers during the Games by means of seamless connection of multiple systems and data sharing.</p><p>There is another eye-catching invention in this Winter Olympics: the wearable thermometer-\"underarm band-aid\" serves as an early warning for epidemic prevention and control. The chip sensor of this temperature measuring device is only the size of sand, and the temperature measurement can be accurate to 0.05 °C, so as to accurately and quickly lock people with abnormal body temperature. Moreover, this innovation will provide technical support for the contactless temperature monitoring of groups who will hold large-scale activities in the future.</p><p>The application of intelligent robots not only improves the color and efficiency of science and technology, but also increases the proportion of non-contact services, reduces direct contact between people, and effectively reduces the risk of infection for athletes and staff.</p><p>In terms of wearing, my country's independently developed alpine skiing training protective clothing adopts a new type of columnar array resistance structure and a new type of energy-absorbing cushioning material, which can effectively protect the shoulders and legs of alpine skiers.</p><p>In terms of accommodation, 6,000 smart beds provided by Qisheng Technology for athletes and team officials from all over the world have received unanimous praise and praise. It is reported that Summer Bridger, the female sledding player of the US Winter Olympics delegation, praised the smart bed on the video social media Tiktok and quickly fermented and became popular all over the world.</p><p>In terms of medical care, relevant data released by the International Olympic Committee show that due to the difficulty and high danger of the Winter Olympics, and the low temperature environment, the injury probability of athletes in the snow events of the Winter Olympics is about 10%-14%. In this regard, the Beijing Winter Olympics has also comprehensively improved the level of smart medical care. Such as building an intelligent mobile shelter; 5G telemedicine; Strengthen the application of wearable medical-grade smart devices; Research and develop aerosol Novel Coronavirus detection system in public space, etc.</p><p><b>New investment opportunities surfaced</b></p><p>According to the budget data released by the deputy director of the Finance and Market Development Department of the Beijing Winter Olympics Bid Committee, the budget revenue and expenditure of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics are USD 1.51 billion, far lower than the RMB 280 billion of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Among them, 65% of the Beijing Winter Olympics venue construction budget comes from social investment.</p><p>Although the expenditure has decreased, the income is correspondingly not optimistic. Referring to the fact that a large number of events were held in empty venues in the 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games last year, the proportion of ticket revenue was reduced (12%), which was significantly lower than the 2016 Janeiro Olympic Games (16%). At a time when the epidemic has not yet stabilized, the Beijing Winter Olympics will also face the same situation.</p><p>Fortunately, there are currently as many as 50 known industries directly or indirectly related to the Olympic Games, and the investment-driven effect brought by them is still strong. The official convening of this Winter Olympics still has the potential to become a capital feast.</p><p>The secondary market reaction is the most obvious. It is understood that there are currently more than 50 listed companies in A-shares to assist in various tasks of the Beijing Winter Olympics, including venue construction, technical support, transportation facilities, licensed product sales, sponsorship and supply services.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital renminbi, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robotics and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious.</p><p>First of all, taking the digital renminbi as an example, launching the digital renminbi pilot is a highlight of the Beijing Winter Olympics. At present, 355,000 Winter Olympics scenes have been successfully implemented, achieving full coverage of transportation, catering and accommodation, shopping and consumption scenes.</p><p>The accelerated promotion of the digital renminbi has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. In the past three months, more than 50% of the stocks in this sector have increased by more than 20%. At the same time, the payment hardware market in its upstream and downstream industrial chains, the bank IT upgrade market, and the promotion and scenario service companies serving the digital renminbi have also received capital attention.</p><p>Secondly, it is not surprising that this Winter Olympics has also become a stage for new energy vehicle competition. According to official statistics from the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, energy-saving and clean energy vehicles account for 100% of passenger cars and 85.84% of all vehicles among the transportation service vehicles for the Winter Olympics, the highest in previous Winter Olympics. During the Winter Olympics, more than 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles (i.e. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will be demonstrated and operated, equipped with more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations.</p><p>Thirdly, it is worth mentioning that hydrogen energy, as the most promising secondary energy in the 21st century, also ushered in a new climax of development during the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to incomplete statistics, as of December 2021, there are about 85 investment projects related to hydrogen energy fuel cells, with a total investment amount of about 185.713 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the forecast of the International Hydrogen Energy Council, by 2050, hydrogen energy will bear 18% of the world's energy terminal demand, creating a market value of more than 2.5 trillion US dollars, and the global share of fuel cell vehicles will increase to 20%-25%. It should be pointed out that the opportunities for hydrogen fuel cells are more concentrated in the field of commercial vehicles.</p><p>Also, this year's Beijing Winter Olympics has completed the migration of core systems to the cloud. This is the first time in the history of the Olympic Games that cloud computing has replaced traditional IT. So far, the core information systems of the Olympic Games, such as event results, event broadcast, information release, athletes' arrival and departure, medical care, accommodation, and transportation, have been migrated to Alibaba Cloud.</p><p>The comprehensive cloud migration of this Winter Olympics has also brought new possibilities for the live broadcast and broadcast of the event and the audience's viewing experience, such as solving the huge work of news gathering and editing, and providing technical support for the application of AR/VR equipment and high-definition video.</p><p>In addition, the emergence of virtual humans has also contributed to a new experience of watching games. Taking AI sign language anchors as an example, they can not only report news, but also conduct live sign language broadcasts of games, which will bring good news to the hearing-impaired.</p><p>Of course, as the AR/VR hardware and virtual humans that have been popularized by metaverse, these two fields are also the darlings of capital this year. Taking virtual people as an example, in 2021 alone, there will be more than 60,000 new virtual human-related companies in China; The investment field is even more frequent. Less than a month after the beginning of 2022, the cumulative amount of nearly 100 financings in the virtual human field has exceeded 400 million yuan.</p><p>In addition, the ubiquitous behind-the-scenes hero artificial intelligence, as well as robots active in the front line, will also be blown to the wind again in the east wind of the Beijing Winter Olympics, especially disinfection robots, service robots and epidemic prevention robots, which are expected to be extended to daily life on a large scale after the Winter Olympics.</p><p>From the first use of electronic timing in Stockholm Olympic Games in 1912, to the first TV broadcast in Berlin Olympic Games in 1936, and then to the opening of the world's first high-speed railway on the eve of the opening of Tokyo Olympic Games in 1964, we can see that the opening of the Olympic Games is always accompanied by the birth of new scientific and technological achievements.</p><p>We also have reason to believe that these scientific and technological achievements of this Winter Olympics will move from the stadium to daily life, and with the blessing of capital, they can become a new bright spot in public life.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Winter Olympics opens today, and I see a trillion-level investment opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Winter Olympics opens today, and I see a trillion-level investment opportunity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-04 10:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>\"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics.</b>On the evening of February 4th, the opening ceremony of the 24th Winter Olympic Games was held at the National Stadium. As a result, Beijing will become the only city in the world that has hosted both the Summer Olympic Games and the Winter Olympics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2642a40bccd5e127fa718128d6d254bd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that, unlike the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics are naturally affected by factors such as environment and climate. At the same time, this Winter Olympics is the first Winter Olympics held under the background of continental monsoon climate in the past 20 years. In addition, the current global novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, and the overall difficulty of holding it can be imagined.</p><p>For example, with the support of multiple data and machine learning, combined with bioinformatics and other disciplines, the team from Tsinghua has designed an epidemic monitoring and early warning system that can be used for closed-loop management of the Winter Olympics. Assuming a sudden epidemic during the Games, it can timely and accurately screen out high-risk groups, susceptible areas, susceptible behaviors and weak points of epidemic prevention and control, etc., and use science and technology to build an epidemic prevention technical barrier for the Winter Olympics.</p><p>Earlier, the director of the expert committee of \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" said in an exclusive interview with Phoenix TV: \"After the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic, security issues have been placed in a very prominent position in the process of preparing for the Winter Olympics. The research results of researchers can not only be applied to this Winter Olympics, but also be valuable experience for social epidemic prevention and control and other large-scale international activities.\"</p><p>Such a thing is only the tip of the iceberg in the preparation process of the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to the data published in the Application Guidelines for Key Special Targeted Projects of the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\", in order to support the successful completion and landing of the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" project, the total estimated state funds for 2018-2021 are about 1.49 billion yuan.</p><p>According to data from the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission, more than 200 technologies have been tested and used in the Winter Olympics scene, involving information engineering and software engineering, public safety, high-definition video, 5G and new energy.</p><p>It is precisely because of this that the \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\" has become the main feature of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics. Some industry comments even said that this year's Beijing Winter Olympics will become a world-class science and technology exhibition.</p><p>Take the torch \"flying\" of this Winter Olympics as an example. It is reported that the torch was designed by Li Jianye, the chief industrial designer of Alibaba. He said that the torch shell pioneered the use of lightweight and high-temperature \"carbon fiber\" material, which is not only fire-resistant and high-temperature resistant, but also resistant to Grade 10 strong winds and rainstorms. At the same time, the torch also uses environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel, which makes the carbon emission of the torch \"zero\".</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital renminbi, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robotics and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious, which may bring a trillion-level investment opportunity.</p><p><b>Infrastructure colored by technology</b></p><p>When it comes to competitions, the first thing many people pay attention to is the venue. From the well-known Bird's Nest and Water Cube to the ice ribbon and snow dragon that have entered the public's sight in this Winter Olympics, each unique design embodies ingenuity and wisdom.</p><p>Different from the past, in order to better welcome this Winter Olympics, each competition venue has carried out some \"technology\" packaging. For example, as the only newly-built ice venue in Beijing competition area, National Speed Skating Oval \"Ice Ribbon\" adopts the single-layer two-way orthogonal saddle-shaped cable net roof with the largest span in the world, and the steel consumption is only 1/4 of that of the traditional roof.</p><p>Similarly, the National Snowmobile and Sled Center, known as \"Snow Dragon\", adopts \"millimeter-level\" hyperboloid concrete spraying and finishing molding technology, and the 1.9-kilometer track is sprayed and poured at one time. With the blessing of technology, Water Cube realized the site conversion of \"water to ice\" within 20 days. With the help of the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence technology, the Bird's Nest has also transformed into a digital, low-carbon and intelligent sports venue.</p><p>Of course, the above is only a small part of many technological Winter Olympics competition venues, but it is enough to see that this Winter Olympics has started its scientific and technological layout from the most basic facilities.</p><p>In addition to the venues, the most inseparable thing for the Winter Olympics is ice and snow. As we mentioned at the beginning, Beijing belongs to the continental monsoon climate zone. Therefore, there are two \"black technologies\" in this Winter Olympics-artificial snow and \"the fastest ice surface\".</p><p>It is understood that this Winter Olympics will be the first Olympic Games in history that uses 100% artificial snow. The characteristic of artificial snow is that the ice content is high, which is 20% higher than that of natural snow. This characteristic also brings both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, artificial snow may increase the possibility of athletes' injuries; on the other hand, artificial snow can overcome the differences in snow field characteristics and make competition fairer.</p><p>What's more, the \"Ice Ribbon\" venue also creatively adopts carbon dioxide transcritical direct cooling ice-making technology, which ensures constant ice temperature and better ice quality, thus becoming the \"fastest ice surface\".</p><p>If the venues and ice and snow environment are still artificially controllable factors, then the climate change in the Winter Olympics is a change factor that cannot be ignored. The reason behind this is that 70% of the events in the Winter Olympics are snow events, and most of them are snow events. Snow events are held in mountainous areas with complex terrain.</p><p>Therefore, meteorological support has become the top priority of ice and snow sports. So far, the meteorological support project has achieved certain scientific and technological innovation achievements, especially the \"100-meter-level and minute-level\" forecast for the first time. As we all know, even if we are in plain areas, it is impossible for the current weather software to achieve \"100-meter-level and minute-level\", but in mountainous areas, it is even more arduous to face technical challenges to this extent.</p><p>In general event venues, security work will use a lot of physical fence protection or a lot of manpower. However, the Winter Olympics competitions are mostly held in deep mountains with complex terrain, harsh climate and environmental conditions, and the temperature difference between day and night is as high as tens of degrees. Therefore, the application of intelligent sentinel robots was born.</p><p>By deploying intelligent sentinel robots in the Zhangjiakou competition area of this Winter Olympics, it can automatically and accurately determine the category of intruders in daily monitoring, and upload the monitored situation or the whereabouts of intruders to the background command center, effectively improving the efficiency of security staff and ensuring the safety of the Winter Olympics venue. Its lowest tolerance to low temperatures is more than minus 40 degrees.</p><p>At Wukesong Sports Center, an ice hockey arena in Beijing, there are also service robots officially on duty. It is understood that 12 security service robots provide contactless ticket check-in for the audience to enter the venue, and can complete 8 processes such as identity verification, intelligent temperature measurement, health code inquiry and vaccination inquiry within 1 second. Outside the venue, four intelligent service robots provide information guidance, interactive Q&A, and full-process Winter Olympics explanation.</p><p>In addition, my country has developed the first domestic 5G + 8K OB truck and put it into use, which will provide the public with high-quality off-site viewing services. In this way, the upcoming 8K channel will give viewers the opportunity to watch 8K games on TV during the games, and also have the opportunity to see ultra-high-definition pictures through 8K terminals in Winter Olympics venues, city squares and other places.</p><p><b>Everywhere smart living</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the core of sports competition is people. How to help athletes play better in training, life and competition with the help of scientific and technological means is fundamental.</p><p>Take curling, in which the Chinese team won two consecutive victories two days before the start of the competition, as an example. In 2019, curling robots began to be developed. This project is a national key special project of the Ministry of Science and Technology's \"Science and Technology Winter Olympics\". Curling robots use advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, image recognition and automatic control to make up for the deficiency of curling tactical analysis methods and assist athletes in training.</p><p>In terms of food, the Beijing Winter Olympics uses self-developed ultra-micro trusted chips, combined with the non-tampering and traceability characteristics of the blockchain, to build a food safety guarantee platform for the Winter Olympics, which provides strong support for the catering service of the Winter Olympics.</p><p>It is undeniable that before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robot applications have been accompanied by smart restaurants, and have been screened on major social media platforms. Robots are no longer a new species. Why can they get such high attention?</p><p>It turns out that the smart restaurant is located in the main media center of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The restaurant covers an area of more than 3,680 square meters, which is divided into an automatic bar area, a Chinese food cloud track area and a media dining area. It is understood that the smart restaurant is equipped with 120 meal-making robots. The intelligent and automated catering equipment in the restaurant can run 24 hours a day, ensuring that the whole process of ordering, preparing and serving is automated, and can serve thousands of people at the same time.</p><p>Surprisingly, there are no chefs or waiters to serve food in the restaurant. Chinese and western food cooking and cocktail preparation are all done by robots. Diners scan a QR code on the table to order, and then a robot chef in the kitchen begins making it. All robots are behind clear glass, so everyone can see the cooking process.</p><p>Finally, the robot completes the entire food delivery process, and the dishes will be delivered through the cloud rail system at the top of the restaurant. When the robot moves above the desired dining table, a tray containing food will \"fall from the sky\" with the lowered cable and hover in front of people for their use. According to the video, the way of serving food is somewhat similar to that of \"weightless\" restaurants.</p><p>Robots working in restaurants are just the tip of the iceberg of robot applications throughout the Winter Olympics.</p><p>In terms of epidemic prevention, high-efficiency disinfection scenarios include atomization disinfection robots, material distribution scenarios include distribution robots, cleaning robots responsible for intelligent cleaning, inspection robots responsible for reminding and disinfection services and many other types.</p><p>For example, the disinfection robot of Water Cube can automatically avoid obstacles and charge itself. Through the intelligent disinfection system built by AI big data, the venue disinfection can be visualized, digitized, and traceable, which can meet the needs of nearly 8,600 square meters in different areas of the venue. Cleaning and disinfection of public areas.</p><p>The Beijing Winter Olympics has also built an arrival and departure information system. On the basis of information technologies such as big data and cloud computing, it provides arrival and departure services for 32,000 Olympic customers during the Games by means of seamless connection of multiple systems and data sharing.</p><p>There is another eye-catching invention in this Winter Olympics: the wearable thermometer-\"underarm band-aid\" serves as an early warning for epidemic prevention and control. The chip sensor of this temperature measuring device is only the size of sand, and the temperature measurement can be accurate to 0.05 °C, so as to accurately and quickly lock people with abnormal body temperature. Moreover, this innovation will provide technical support for the contactless temperature monitoring of groups who will hold large-scale activities in the future.</p><p>The application of intelligent robots not only improves the color and efficiency of science and technology, but also increases the proportion of non-contact services, reduces direct contact between people, and effectively reduces the risk of infection for athletes and staff.</p><p>In terms of wearing, my country's independently developed alpine skiing training protective clothing adopts a new type of columnar array resistance structure and a new type of energy-absorbing cushioning material, which can effectively protect the shoulders and legs of alpine skiers.</p><p>In terms of accommodation, 6,000 smart beds provided by Qisheng Technology for athletes and team officials from all over the world have received unanimous praise and praise. It is reported that Summer Bridger, the female sledding player of the US Winter Olympics delegation, praised the smart bed on the video social media Tiktok and quickly fermented and became popular all over the world.</p><p>In terms of medical care, relevant data released by the International Olympic Committee show that due to the difficulty and high danger of the Winter Olympics, and the low temperature environment, the injury probability of athletes in the snow events of the Winter Olympics is about 10%-14%. In this regard, the Beijing Winter Olympics has also comprehensively improved the level of smart medical care. Such as building an intelligent mobile shelter; 5G telemedicine; Strengthen the application of wearable medical-grade smart devices; Research and develop aerosol Novel Coronavirus detection system in public space, etc.</p><p><b>New investment opportunities surfaced</b></p><p>According to the budget data released by the deputy director of the Finance and Market Development Department of the Beijing Winter Olympics Bid Committee, the budget revenue and expenditure of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics are USD 1.51 billion, far lower than the RMB 280 billion of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Among them, 65% of the Beijing Winter Olympics venue construction budget comes from social investment.</p><p>Although the expenditure has decreased, the income is correspondingly not optimistic. Referring to the fact that a large number of events were held in empty venues in the 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games last year, the proportion of ticket revenue was reduced (12%), which was significantly lower than the 2016 Janeiro Olympic Games (16%). At a time when the epidemic has not yet stabilized, the Beijing Winter Olympics will also face the same situation.</p><p>Fortunately, there are currently as many as 50 known industries directly or indirectly related to the Olympic Games, and the investment-driven effect brought by them is still strong. The official convening of this Winter Olympics still has the potential to become a capital feast.</p><p>The secondary market reaction is the most obvious. It is understood that there are currently more than 50 listed companies in A-shares to assist in various tasks of the Beijing Winter Olympics, including venue construction, technical support, transportation facilities, licensed product sales, sponsorship and supply services.</p><p>Relevant analysts also pointed out that in the fields of digital renminbi, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, robotics and high-end manufacturing, the investment blessing brought by the Winter Olympics will be more obvious.</p><p>First of all, taking the digital renminbi as an example, launching the digital renminbi pilot is a highlight of the Beijing Winter Olympics. At present, 355,000 Winter Olympics scenes have been successfully implemented, achieving full coverage of transportation, catering and accommodation, shopping and consumption scenes.</p><p>The accelerated promotion of the digital renminbi has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. In the past three months, more than 50% of the stocks in this sector have increased by more than 20%. At the same time, the payment hardware market in its upstream and downstream industrial chains, the bank IT upgrade market, and the promotion and scenario service companies serving the digital renminbi have also received capital attention.</p><p>Secondly, it is not surprising that this Winter Olympics has also become a stage for new energy vehicle competition. According to official statistics from the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, energy-saving and clean energy vehicles account for 100% of passenger cars and 85.84% of all vehicles among the transportation service vehicles for the Winter Olympics, the highest in previous Winter Olympics. During the Winter Olympics, more than 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles (i.e. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will be demonstrated and operated, equipped with more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations.</p><p>Thirdly, it is worth mentioning that hydrogen energy, as the most promising secondary energy in the 21st century, also ushered in a new climax of development during the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to incomplete statistics, as of December 2021, there are about 85 investment projects related to hydrogen energy fuel cells, with a total investment amount of about 185.713 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the forecast of the International Hydrogen Energy Council, by 2050, hydrogen energy will bear 18% of the world's energy terminal demand, creating a market value of more than 2.5 trillion US dollars, and the global share of fuel cell vehicles will increase to 20%-25%. It should be pointed out that the opportunities for hydrogen fuel cells are more concentrated in the field of commercial vehicles.</p><p>Also, this year's Beijing Winter Olympics has completed the migration of core systems to the cloud. This is the first time in the history of the Olympic Games that cloud computing has replaced traditional IT. So far, the core information systems of the Olympic Games, such as event results, event broadcast, information release, athletes' arrival and departure, medical care, accommodation, and transportation, have been migrated to Alibaba Cloud.</p><p>The comprehensive cloud migration of this Winter Olympics has also brought new possibilities for the live broadcast and broadcast of the event and the audience's viewing experience, such as solving the huge work of news gathering and editing, and providing technical support for the application of AR/VR equipment and high-definition video.</p><p>In addition, the emergence of virtual humans has also contributed to a new experience of watching games. Taking AI sign language anchors as an example, they can not only report news, but also conduct live sign language broadcasts of games, which will bring good news to the hearing-impaired.</p><p>Of course, as the AR/VR hardware and virtual humans that have been popularized by metaverse, these two fields are also the darlings of capital this year. Taking virtual people as an example, in 2021 alone, there will be more than 60,000 new virtual human-related companies in China; The investment field is even more frequent. Less than a month after the beginning of 2022, the cumulative amount of nearly 100 financings in the virtual human field has exceeded 400 million yuan.</p><p>In addition, the ubiquitous behind-the-scenes hero artificial intelligence, as well as robots active in the front line, will also be blown to the wind again in the east wind of the Beijing Winter Olympics, especially disinfection robots, service robots and epidemic prevention robots, which are expected to be extended to daily life on a large scale after the Winter Olympics.</p><p>From the first use of electronic timing in Stockholm Olympic Games in 1912, to the first TV broadcast in Berlin Olympic Games in 1936, and then to the opening of the world's first high-speed railway on the eve of the opening of Tokyo Olympic Games in 1964, we can see that the opening of the Olympic Games is always accompanied by the birth of new scientific and technological achievements.</p><p>We also have reason to believe that these scientific and technological achievements of this Winter Olympics will move from the stadium to daily life, and with the blessing of capital, they can become a new bright spot in public life.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TKozH5gi54BjN087OGa7mg\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417fd02a5a1a554bfb51559e8c34d024","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TKozH5gi54BjN087OGa7mg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159530168","content_text":"“科技冬奥”成为了北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主要特色。2月4日晚，第二十四届冬季奥林匹克运动会开幕式在国家体育场举行。如此一来，北京也将成为全球唯一一座既举办过夏季奥运会、又将举办冬奥会的城市。值得一提的是，不同于夏季奥运会，冬季奥运会天然受环境、气候等因素影响较多，同时，此次冬奥会还是近20年来首次在大陆性季风气候背景下举办的冬奥赛事，另外，当前全球新冠肺炎疫情还在持续蔓延，整体举办难度可想而知。比如，来自清华的团队就在在多重数据、机器学习等支持下，结合生物信息学等学科，设计了一套能用于冬奥闭环管理的疫情监测与预警系统，假设赛时突发疫情，可及时精准筛查出高风险人群、易感区域、易感行为以及疫情防控薄弱点等，用科技为冬奥筑起一道防疫技术屏障。此前，“科技冬奥”专家委员会主任在接受凤凰卫视专访时谈到：“新冠疫情出现之后，安全问题就摆在筹备冬奥过程中一个非常突出的位置。科研人员的研究成果，不仅可以应用于本届冬奥，对于社会面上的疫情防控，以及其他大型的国际活动，都是宝贵经验。”这样的事情，在北京冬奥会的筹办过程中，只是冰山一角。据《“科技冬奥”重点专项定向项目申报指南》公布的数据显示，为支持“科技冬奥”项目顺利建成落地，2018—2021年度国拨经费总概算约14.9亿元。根据北京市科学技术委员会数据，在冬奥场景先后测试和使用的200多项技术，涉及信息工程与软件工程、公共安全、高清视频、5G 和新能源等领域。也正是如此，“科技冬奥”成为了北京2022年冬奥会和冬残奥会的主要特色，甚至有业内评论称今年的北京冬奥会将成为世界级的科技展。还以正在接力的本届冬奥会的火炬“飞扬”为例，据悉，该火炬由阿里巴巴首席工业设计师李剑叶设计，他谈到，火炬外壳开创性地启用重量轻且耐高温的“碳纤维”材料，不仅耐火耐高温，还能抗10级大风和暴雨，同时，火炬还采用环保的氢气燃料，使火炬燃烧时的碳排放为“零”，其特性也保证了火炬能在极寒天气中使用。相关分析人士也指出，在数字人民币、氢能源、人工智能、机器人和高端制造领域，冬奥会带来的投资加持作用会更加明显，这或许将带来一次万亿级的投资机会。被科技上色的基础设施谈到比赛，很多人首先关注的就是场馆。从被熟知的鸟巢、水立方到本次冬奥会走入大众视线中的冰丝带、雪游龙，一个个独具特色的设计都凝聚着巧思与智慧。不同与往，为了更好的迎接这次冬奥会，每个竞赛场馆都进行了一番“科技”包装。比如作为北京赛区唯一新建的冰上场馆，国家速滑馆“冰丝带”采用了世界跨度最大的单层双向正交马鞍形索网屋面，用钢量仅为传统屋面的1/4。同样，被称为“雪游龙”的国家雪车雪橇中心采用“毫米级”双曲面混凝土喷射及精加工成型技术，1.9公里赛道一次性喷射浇筑成型。而水立方在技术的加持下，在20天内就实现了“由水到冰”的场地转换。鸟巢也在物联网、人工智能技术的助力下，摇身变成了数字、低碳、智能体育场馆。当然以上只是众多科技范儿冬奥会竞赛场馆的一小部分，但这也足以看出，本届冬奥会从最基础的设施部分就开始了科技布局。除了场馆外，冬奥会最离不开的就是冰雪了，正如我们开篇提到的，北京属于大陆性季风气候区，因此，本届冬奥会还有两项“黑科技”——人造雪和“最快冰面”。据了解，本届冬奥会将是有史以来第一届100%使用人造雪的奥运会。人造雪的特性是冰含量较高，比天然雪高出20%，这样的特性也带来了正反两方面的影响，一方面，人造雪可能增加运动员受伤的可能性，另一方面，人造雪可以克服雪场特性差异，让竞技更公平。不止如此，“冰丝带”场馆也创造性地采用二氧化碳跨临界直冷制冰技术，保证了冰面温度恒定，冰面质量更优，由此成为“最快冰面”。如果说场馆和冰雪环境尚属于人工可控因素，那么冬奥赛场上的气候变化则是一个不可忽视的变化因子，这背后原因在于冬奥会70%的项目都是雪上项目，大部分的雪上项目都在地形复杂的山区举办。因此，气象保障成为了冰雪运动的重中之重。到目前为止，气象保障项目取得了一定的科技创新成果，尤其是首次做到了“百米级、分钟级”预报。众所周知，就算我们在平原地区，现在的天气软件做到“百米级、分钟级”尚不可能，而在山地里，做到如此程度面对技术的挑战更为艰巨。在一般的赛事场地，安防工作会用到大量的物理围栏防护或采用大量人力，然而冬奥会比赛多在地形复杂的深山之中，气候环境条件严苛，日夜温差高至几十度，因此，智能哨兵机器人应用而生。本次冬奥会的张家口赛区通过部署智能哨兵机器人，在日常监测中，能自动精准判断入侵者的类别，并将监测到的情况或入侵者的行踪轨迹上传至后台的指挥中心，有效提高了安保工作人员效率，确保冬奥会的赛场安全。它最低的耐低温也超过零下四十度。在北京的冰球赛场五棵松体育中心，也有服务机器人正式上岗。据了解，12台安全服务机器人为观众入场提供无接触式检票，1秒钟内能完成身份验证、智能测温、健康码查询、疫苗接种情况查询等8项流程。场馆外围，4台智能服务机器人提供信息指引、互动答疑、全流程冬奥讲解。另外，我国研发国内首台5G＋8K转播车并投入使用，将为公众提供优质的非现场观赛服务。这样一来，即将开通的8K频道将让观众在赛时有机会在电视上看到8K比赛，也有机会在冬奥场馆、城市广场等地通过8K终端看到超高清画面。无处不在的智能生活归根到底，体育竞技的核心还是人。如何借助科技手段帮助在运动员训练、生活和比赛中得到更好的发挥才是根本。拿中国队在开赛前两天取得两连胜的冰壶运动来说，在2019年，冰壶机器人开始研发，该项目是科技部“科技冬奥”国家重点专项课题，冰壶机器人利用人工智能、图像识别、自动控制等先进技术，弥补冰壶战术分析手段的不足，辅助运动员进行训练。在食品方面，北京冬奥会利用自主研发的超微型可信芯片，结合区块链不可篡改和可追溯的特性，构建冬奥食品安全保障平台，为冬奥餐饮服务提供了有力支撑。不可否认，在北京冬奥会开始之前，机器人应用已经伴随着智慧餐厅出圈了，并在各大社交媒体平台刷屏。机器人早已不是什么新鲜物种，缘何能获得如此高的关注度？原来，该智慧餐厅位于北京冬奥会主媒体中心，餐厅占地3680多平方米，其中分为自动酒吧区，中餐云轨区和媒体就餐区。据了解，智慧餐厅配备了120台制餐机器人，餐厅内智能化、自动化的餐饮设备可24小时不间断运行，确保点餐、备餐、上菜全过程自动化，可同时为数千人服务。让人意外的是，餐厅没有厨师或服务员上菜，中餐和西餐烹饪、鸡尾酒调制都由机器人完成。就餐者扫描餐桌上的二维码点菜，然后厨房里的机器人厨师开始制作。所有机器人都在透明玻璃后面，所以每个人都可以看到烹饪过程。最后机器人完成整个送餐流程，菜品将通过餐厅顶部的云轨系统送达。当机器人移到所需的餐桌上方时，一盘盛着食物的托盘就会随着下放的缆绳 “从天而降”，悬停在人们面前，供其取用。根据视频来看，上菜方式有些类似与“失重”餐厅。在餐厅中工作的机器人只是整个冬奥会中机器人应用的冰山一角。防疫方面，高效消杀场景有雾化消毒机器人，物资分发场景有配送机器人，还有负责智能清扫的清洁机器人，负责提醒与消毒服务的巡检机器人等诸多类型。比如水立方的消毒机器人能够续自动避障、自行充电，通过AI大数据构建的智能化消毒系统将场馆消毒做到可视化、数据化、可追踪溯源化，可满足对场馆不同区域内近8600平方米的公共区域清扫消毒工作。北京冬奥会还建设了抵离信息系统，在大数据、云计算等信息技术基础上，以多系统无缝衔接，数据共享等手段，赛时为3.2万名奥运会客户群提供抵离服务。本届冬奥会还有一个吸睛的发明：可穿戴式体温计——“腋下创可贴”为疫情防控“站哨”预警。这款测温设备的芯片传感器仅沙粒大小，测温可精确到0.05°C，实现精准、快速锁定体温异常人群。而且，该项创新将为未来疫情常态化举办大型活动的群体无接触体温监测提供技术支撑。智能机器人的应用，不仅提高了科技色彩和效率，同时提升了非接触式服务比例，减少了人与人的直接接触，有效降低了运动员和工作人员的感染风险。穿着方面，我国自主研发的高山滑雪训练防护服，采用了新型的柱状阵列式抗击结构和新型吸能缓震材料，能够对高山滑雪运动员的肩腿部起到有效的保护作用。住宿方面，由麒盛科技为各国运动员及随队官员提供的6000张智能床，并得到了一致好评和点赞，据悉美国冬奥代表团雪橇女将萨默·布里彻在视频社交媒体Tiktok上对智能床大加赞扬，并迅速发酵走红全球。医疗方面，国际奥委会发布的相关数据显示，由于冬奥会项目难度较大、危险性较高，且在低温环境下，所以冬奥会雪上项目的运动员受伤概率约在10%—14%。对此，北京冬奥会也全面提升智慧医疗水平。如搭建智能移动方舱；5G远程医疗；加强穿戴式医疗级智能设备应用；研发公共空间气溶胶新冠病毒检测系统等等。新的投资机会浮出水面根据北京冬奥申委财务以及市场开发部副部长公布的预算数据，2022年北京冬奥会的预算收入以及支出皆为15.1亿美元，远低于2008年北京奥运会的人民币2800亿元。其中，北京冬奥会场馆建设预算有65%来自社会投资。虽然支出有所减少，但相应地收入也不乐观。参考去年2021年东京奥运会中出现了大量赛事空场举行的情况，削减了门票收入占比（12%），相较于2016年的约热内卢奥运会（16%）有明显下降。在疫情尚未稳定的当下，此次北京冬奥会也将面临相同的情况。幸运的是，目前已知的与奥运会直接或间接相关的产业多达50项，带来的投资带动效应依旧强劲，本次冬奥会的正式召开，依旧有成为资本盛宴的潜力。二级市场反应最为明显，据了解，A股目前有超过50家上市公司助力北京冬奥会的各项工作，分别在场馆建设、技术支持、交通设施配套、特许商品销售、赞助和供应服务等方面。相关分析人士也指出，在数字人民币、氢能源、人工智能、机器人和高端制造领域，冬奥会带来的投资加持作用会更加明显。首先，以数字人民币为例，开展数字人民币试点是北京冬奥会的一大亮点。目前已顺利落地35.5万个冬奥场景，实现交通出行、餐饮住宿、购物消费等场景全覆盖。数字人民币的加速推广也点燃了资本市场的热情，近三个月，该板块超五成个股累计涨幅超20%。同时，其上下游产业链上的支付硬件市场、银行IT升级改造市场、服务于数字人民币的推广与场景服务公司也得到了资本的关注。其次，毫不意外的是，这届冬奥会也成了新能源汽车比拼的舞台。据北京冬奥组委官方统计，冬奥会赛事交通服务用车中，节能与清洁能源车辆在小客车中占比100%，在全部车辆中占比85.84%，为历届冬奥会最高。冬奥会期间还将示范运行超1000辆氢能源汽车（即氢燃料电池汽车），配备30多个加氢站。再次，值得一提的是，氢能源作为21世纪最具发展前景的二次能源，在北京冬奥期间也迎来了发展的新高潮。据不完全统计，截至2021年12月，氢能源燃料电池相关投资项目约85项，投资总金额约1857.13亿元。据国际氢能委员会预测，到2050年，氢能将承担全球18%的能源终端需求，创造超过2.5万亿美元的市场价值，燃料电池汽车在全球占比将提升至20%-25%。需要指出的是氢燃料电池的机会更多集中在商用车领域。还有，今年北京冬奥已经完成核心系统迁移上云。这是奥运史上首次由云计算替代传统IT，至此，奥运最核心的赛事成绩、赛事转播、信息发布、运动员抵离、医疗、食宿、交通等信息系统迁移至阿里云上。本届冬奥会的全面上云，也为赛事直播和转播以及观众观赛体验上带来了新的可能，比如解决新闻采编巨量工作，让AR/VR设备、高清视频的应用提供技术支持。以及，虚拟人的出现也助力了新的观赛体验，以AI手语主播为例，不仅可以报道新闻，还能进行赛事手语直播，这将给听障人士带来福音。当然，作为被元宇宙带火的AR/VR硬件以及虚拟人，这两大领域今年也是资本的宠儿。以虚拟人为例，仅2021年国内就新增虚拟人相关企业超6万家；投资领域更是大手笔频出，2022年开年还不到一个月，虚拟人领域近百起融资累计金额已经超过4亿元。此外，无处不在的幕后英雄人工智能，以及活跃在一线的机器人，同样将乘着北京冬奥的东风再次被吹上风口，尤其是消毒机器人、服务机器人和防疫机器人等，在冬奥会后有望大规模推广到日常生活中。从1912年斯德哥尔摩奥运会首次使用电子计时，到1936年柏林奥运会首次实现电视转播，再到1964年东京奥运会开幕前夕开通世界上首条高铁，我们看到，奥运盛会的开启，总是伴随着新的科技成果的诞生。我们也有理由相信，本届冬奥会的这些科技成果将从赛场走向日常，经过资本的加持，可以成为大众生活的新亮点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808512518,"gmtCreate":1627601628034,"gmtModify":1703493017822,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 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Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"goid","listText":"goid","text":"goid","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886216786","repostId":"2167535940","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2167535940","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631591760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167535940?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 11:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taper is getting closer! Where is the current position of U.S. stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167535940","media":"东亚前海策略团队","summary":"投资要点\n当下美股正处于历史最长的牛市之中。标普 500 指数在 2009 年以来的 12 年牛市中累计涨幅高达 559.04%，无论是延续时长还是累计涨幅都创下了历史记录。我们通过对 1928 年以","content":"<p><b>Investment Key Points</b></p><p>U.S. stocks are currently in the longest bull market in history. The cumulative increase of the S&P 500 index in the 12-year bull market since 2009 is as high as 559.04%, setting a historical record for both duration and cumulative increase. We summarize and sort out the macro and micro characteristics of the 13 rounds of bull-bear transition stages in the U.S. stock market since 1928, and compare the present, in order to provide enlightenment to investors:</p><p><b>Overall, the following macro characteristics exist when the bull-bear transition in the U.S. stock market occurs: 1) The valuation is at a high level:</b>In 12 of the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversions, when the market top appeared, the valuation of U.S. stocks was above the 80% quantile.<b>2) liquidity tightening:</b>In history, there have been 10 rounds of bull-bear transitions that occurred in the context of the Federal Reserve's active adjustment of monetary policy. At the same time, there is a high correlation between liquidity tightening and the emergence of inflection points in US stocks.<b>3) Fundamentals deteriorate:</b>Ten of the 13 bear markets have occurred against the backdrop of declining corporate earnings.<b>4) Tax increase:</b>Historically, three rounds of bear markets have occurred in the context of tax increases.<b>5) External shock:</b>External shocks are not necessarily the main driving force behind the market decline, but the suppression of investors' risk appetite by nine external shocks in the bear market will significantly accelerate the market decline.</p><p><b>From the perspective of micro indicators, U.S. stocks will have some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurs: 1) Asset allocation level:</b>Households' over-allocation of stock assets and foreign capital inflows accelerated significantly;<b>2) Valuation level:</b>P/E and price-to-book ratio are at historical highs, the median Tobin Q is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations;<b>3) Transaction level:</b>The circulation of new shares has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the proportion of call options/put options is too high;<b>4) Technical indicator level:</b>The S&P 500 deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50%, and the proportion of stocks above the MA250 rose sharply.</p><p>At present, from the perspective of policy, capital, market characteristics, investor sentiment and valuation, U.S. stocks are currently at historically extreme levels. This means that even if the major U.S. stock indexes are still likely to rise under the resonance of the global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the probability of a sharp adjustment in the market is rising significantly. Investors need to remain highly cautious about U.S. stocks at this time.</p><p><b>Through the bull-bear conversion in the history of review's U.S. stock market, we believe that the current U.S. stock market has many similarities with the Internet bubble in 2000.</b>From the perspective of micro indicators, some of the current indicators that represent market sentiment have warned of risks in 2018 and 2000. However, from the perspective of macro environment, the current U.S. stock market is facing a very different macro environment from 2018, and there are many common characteristics from 2000: First, the two bull markets lasted for ten years, the bubble was mainly spawned by growth stocks, and the structural characteristics of the bull market were significant; Second, profit is the main driving factor in both bull markets; Third, the extremely dovish monetary policy in the two bull markets has contributed to the expansion of the bubble; Fourthly, the valuation bubble of assets in both periods had already occurred two years ago, but the bubble continued further with the help of the loose liquidity environment and the improvement of corporate profits driven by macro policies.</p><p><b>In the medium term, all three factors may lead to the bursting of the bubble in the US stock market.</b>1) With the unexpected recovery of U.S. employment, the Fed Taper signal may be released at the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. The marginal tightening of monetary policy heralded by the opening of Taper will put greater pressure on U.S. stock valuations; 2) On the other hand, the advancement of Biden's tax increase policy will further put pressure on U.S. stock profits; 3) External shocks such as the unexpected fermentation of the epidemic may also bring further downward pressure on U.S. stocks.</p><p>Different from the dominant position of the United States in the global economy in 2000, the current share of China's economy in the world is increasing, and the economic and monetary cycles of China and the United States are out of sync. The occurrence of bull-bear conversion in U.S. stocks may impact A-share sentiment in the short term, but in the long run In terms of speaking, the trend of A-shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The epidemic situation in developed economies has developed more than expected, the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and the U.S. tax increase has advanced more than expected.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Since March 2009, the current bull market in U.S. stocks has a history of 12.5 years, with a cumulative increase of 559.04%. At present, the profit of U.S. stocks is in the repair channel, and the valuation is already at a historical high. Against the background of Taper approaching, the market has great differences on \"where the current position of U.S. stocks\".</p><p>In the previous report \"Revelation of the U.S. Stock Bull Market (Part 1)-The Opening, Development and End of the U.S. Stock Bull Market\", we review the background and market performance of the 13 bull-bear transition periods in the U.S. stock market since 1928. In this report, we will continue to sort out and interpret the changes and significance of macro and micro indicators when the bull-bear conversion of U.S. stocks occurred in the past, and further explore the similarities and differences between the current U.S. stock market and the past, with a view to providing enlightenment to investors.</p><p><b>In the medium term, with the implementation of the overseas Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet during the year, the downward pressure on the domestic economy will gradually emerge, the central bank will promote credit supply, and the inflection point of macro liquidity will gradually approach. In addition, the G20 summit at the end of October is expected to become an important catalyst to promote the improvement of market risk sentiment. From the perspective of the A-share market, with the market switch since August, the current market style has tended to be balanced. Since the beginning of this year, some tracks that have been fully adjusted have initially achieved the value of the left layout.</b></p><p><b>01. 13 rounds of bull-bear conversion since 1928</b></p><p>According to the definition of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a bear market/bull market usually refers to the market's broad-based index falling/rising by more than 20% and lasting for more than 2 months. Based on this identification standard, combined with the adjustment of market consensus, we identified the 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions that U.S. stocks have experienced since the S&P 500 Index was released in 1957 and traced back to 1928.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922d4bd5c0b314cea05ee300f3542e2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First round:</b>In September 1929, intensified speculative activities pushed the valuation of U.S. stocks to a high level. The Federal Reserve took the initiative to rate hike to curb speculative activities. Driven by panic, U.S. stocks experienced the fastest and deepest flash crash in history. From October 23 to October 29 of the same year The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 29.54%, known as the Great Crash in history. After that, as economic fundamentals continued to deteriorate, the market also fell rapidly, and the S&P 500 index fell by 86.16% by July 1932.</p><p><b>Second round:</b>In March 1937, the premature withdrawal of policies during the recovery process after the Great Depression caused the U.S. economy to fall into recession again. The second deterioration of fundamentals severely damaged the confidence of U.S. investors, and the market turned downward again. The S&P 500 Index continued to slump until April 1942 under the haze of World War II, with a cumulative decline of 59.99%.</p><p><b>Third round:</b>In May 1946, after the end of World War II, with the lifting of wartime price controls and the minimum wage increase brought about by trade union forces after veterans returned to the labor market, the United States fell into severe inflation, and the bear market also opened under the background of monetary tightening triggered by inflation. The market continued to be sluggish amid shocks until the economic development returned to the right track in 1950 before restarting the bull market. During this period, the S&P 500 fell by 29.61%.</p><p><b>Fourth round:</b>In August 1956, against the background of continued economic prosperity in the United States and a slight rise in inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve once again implemented a tightening monetary policy. This rate hike not only caused a liquidity impact on the market, but also completely defeated the already fragile market sentiment. The S&P 500 index is down 21.63% in a year.</p><p><b>Fifth round:</b>In December 1961, after a four-year bull market, Schiller P/E of the S&P 500 hit a new high since June 1930. The valuation of U.S. stocks reached a fairly high level. Concerns caused by overvaluations dominated this bear market. In the market, the S&P 500 index fell 27.97% cumulatively, known as the \"Kennedy slide\".</p><p><b>Sixth round:</b>In April 1966, against the background of the outbreak of the Vietnam War, inflationary pressures in the United States reappeared, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy triggered a Credit Crunch in the commercial banking system under the constraints of the 5.5% deposit interest rate ceiling (Regulation Q). The reluctance of commercial banks to lend eventually triggered the Minsky Moment, and the S&P 500 index also experienced a rapid decline at this stage. As of October 1996, the S&P 500 index fell rapidly by 22.18% during this short-lived bear market.</p><p><b>Seventh round:</b>In December 1968, the inflation problem fermented again. In order to prevent further deterioration of inflation, the Federal Reserve quickly tightened liquidity. After the initial shock, the market began to decline rapidly in June 1969. It was not until the marginal easing of monetary policy in 1970 that the decline ended. As of May 1970, the S&P 500 index had fallen by 36.06%.</p><p><b>Eighth round:</b>In January 1973, the collapse of Bretton Woods, the Watergate Incident, and the outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War occurred one after another under the background of stagflation. The Black Swan Incident and the tightening of liquidity under the first oil crisis severely impacted the U.S. capital market. The S&P 500 Index fell sharply from January 1973 to October 1974, with a cumulative decline of 48.2%.</p><p><b>Ninth round:</b>In November, 1980, the U.S. economy fell into recession again, and the decline of corporate profits under the environment of high interest rate stagflation started this bear market. At the same time, Paul Volcker's resolute tightening monetary policy to curb inflation and the fifth Middle East war that broke out in June, 1982 hit the market again. U.S. stocks changed the trend of improving in the third quarter of 1981 and fell into a deep decline again. As of August, 1982, the decline was as high as 27.05%.</p><p><b>Tenth round:</b>In August 1987, the market ended a five-year bull market with a rise of 228.81%. The excessive rise led to the gradual emergence of selling pressure on U.S. stocks. Under the influence of reduced tax incentives and the unexpectedly announced high trade deficit, U.S. stocks ushered in the 20th century. The largest single-day plunge since the century, the S&P 500 plunged 20.5% on October 19, known as \"Black Monday\" in history. As of December of the same year, the S&P 500 had fallen by 33.51%.</p><p><b>Eleventh round:</b>In July 1990, the Kuwait War triggered the third oil crisis, and oil prices rose again. Against the background of inflation expectations pushing up risk-free returns and corporate profits declining in economic recession, the S&P 500 index fell rapidly in just three months. 19.92%.</p><p><b>Twelfth round:</b>In March 2000, the bursting of the Internet bubble ended a decade-long bull market in U.S. stocks. Driven by strong economic growth and stable inflation, the S&P 500 index soared by more than 416.98% in this decade, and the bubble degree of U.S. stocks also reached an unprecedented height. With the puncture of the positive feedback loop in the long-term low interest rate environment by the Federal Reserve rate hike, the profit growth rate of listed companies dropped rapidly, and then the \"Enron Incident\" in March 2001 further pushed the market pessimism to the bottom.</p><p><b>Thirteenth round:</b>In October, 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis turned into a financial crisis and led to a severe economic recession. With the rapid deepening of the crisis, the deterioration of fundamentals and the collapse of investor confidence occurred almost simultaneously, triggering this bear market. The continuous deterioration of corporate profits and the impact of successive bankruptcies such as \"Bear Stearns\" and \"Lehman Brothers\" on the market have pushed U.S. stocks down all the way. As of March 2009, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 56.78%, the largest decline in a bear market since 1942.</p><p><b>02. Macro characteristics of the U.S. stock market when the bull-bear transition occurs</b></p><p><b>Overall, in terms of macro characteristics, the triggers of the 13 rounds of bull-bear switching in the U.S. stock market mainly include the following points: 1) Valuations are at a high level; 2) liquidity tightening; 3) Fundamentals deteriorate; 4) Tax increases and other expectations that suppress profits; 5) Other external impacts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b20864f4239e9df20be4c528a0daa7b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.1. Valuations are at high levels</b></p><p>When the 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions occurred in the history of U.S. stocks, except for the bear market S&P 500 index P/E from 1980 to 1982, when the other 12 rounds of market tops appeared, the valuations of U.S. stocks were all above the historical quantile of 80%. Among them, there were 8 times higher than the historical quantile of 90%, while the Great Depression in 1929, the Kennedy Crash in 1961, the Flash Crash in 1966 and the Internet bubble in 2000 all exceeded 95%.</p><p>The exceptional bear market from 1980 to 1982 occurred in a stagflationary environment. Declining corporate profits dominated this round of bear market, and the market fell further under the impact of liquidity tightening and the fifth Middle East war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb3c95f6f87d1bdcfe7113b3de3e350\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. Liquidity tightening</b></p><p><b>The trigger factors for 12 of the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversions in history include the tightening of the liquidity environment, and 9 of them are the Fed's active adjustment of the discount rate or Federal Funds rate.</b></p><p>Among the other three rounds, 1) When the bear market occurred in 1937, the U.S. Treasury Department decided to write off gold inflows to reduce excess reserves, superimposed on the Fed's policy of doubling the deposit reserve ratio. Under the two-way tightening of the base currency and currency multiplier, the previous strong monetary expansion came to an abrupt end, and the marginal tightening of liquidity also had an impact on the market. 2) When the bear market started in 1990, although the Federal Reserve maintained the stability of monetary policy during this period and the Federal Funds rate also maintained a high and volatile pattern, inflation expectations pushed up the risk-free interest rate, and the yield on the ten-year Treasury Bond quickly increased from 8.44% on July 17 to 8.92% on October 11. 3) In the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, although Ben Bernanke creatively invested a variety of financial instruments to put liquidity into the market, the easing of macro liquidity failed to effectively improve the micro liquidity of the market, and the rapid widening of credit spreads put great pressure on the prices of risky assets.</p><p>The only exception is the \"Kennedy Crash\" in 1961. During this round of decline, the U.S. economy was stable, corporate profits were healthy, and interest rates remained relatively stable. According to the research of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it was more investors. Changes in sentiment led to this round of market downturn.</p><p><b>At the same time, liquidity tightening is highly correlated with the inflection point of US stocks.</b>Among the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversions, 8 of them experienced asset price adjustments in liquidity tightening's month, while the capital market inflection points of the \"Great Depression\" in 1929 and the \"Flash Crash\" in 1966 lagged behind the implementation of rate hike's policies by 2 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cea7e94799283b9cbc2e7bf89c040de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec3c9cf3bd9b5bc0da7cdc2e03caa548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.3. Fundamentals Deteriorate</b></p><p>Ten of the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversions in the history of U.S. stocks occurred against the background of declining corporate profits, with only three exceptions.</p><p>Among the three exceptional rounds, in the bear markets of 1961 and 1973, under the stagflation environment brought about by rising commodity prices, rising prices improved the profits of upstream companies. During these two periods, the profit performance of U.S. stocks was still relatively good due to the energy sector. However, the occurrence of \"Black Monday\" in 1987 was more dominated by investors' panic. At that time, programmed trading, which was still in its infancy, and portfolio insurance, an automated trading strategy aimed at hedging the market risk of stock portfolios by shorting stock index futures, had not yet been able to adapt to the flash crash of the market. The stock price drop activated more stop-loss orders for automatic trading, and the stop-loss orders further deepened the stock price decline. The market kept falling in this a vicious circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8345030c65e43922663c02bd695f8100\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.4. Tax hikes and other expectations that suppress earnings</b></p><p>Since 1950, the corporate tax rate in the United States has been lowered many times, with only one sharp increase in 1968. This tax increase was also accompanied by tightening liquidity, resulting in a bear market in which the S&P 500 index fell by 36.06% from 1968 to 1971.</p><p>In addition, during the bear market in 1937, Roosevelt, who was relatively cautious about the fiscal deficit, implemented a tightening fiscal policy of cutting federal expenditure in order to curb government expenditure and balance the budget, and implemented a tax increase policy in the context of the imminent outbreak of World War II in 1940; In 1980, then President of the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>Signed the \"Crude Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act of 1980\", which proposed to impose a 50% windfall profits tax on crude oil production companies. This move suppressed the production enthusiasm of oil companies, brought about a rapid increase in corporate effective tax rates, and ultimately in the energy sector The decline in profits and the high financing cost environment have severely damaged corporate profits in U.S. stocks; In addition, in the \"Kennedy Crash\" of 1961, although no substantial tax increase took place, Kennedy publicly criticized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">United States Steel</a>This has caused the market to worry about the introduction of suppressive measures for large enterprises, which has brought about \"tax increases\" or related disturbances that suppress corporate profit expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d456d1850581040caca03dbe752ac0\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.5. External shock</b></p><p>As a relatively mature capital market, U.S. stocks usually have a relatively strong ability to resist risks in history. External shocks such as the Asia-Pacific financial crisis in 1998 and the European debt crisis in 2011 will only bring about a temporary correction in U.S. stock asset prices, but will not trigger a bear market. However, there are still four external shocks in history that have suppressed investors' risk appetite, accelerating the market's decline and deepening the decline of U.S. stocks in a bear market.</p><p>In July, 1956, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of Suez Canal, which caused great shocks in European and American countries and also affected the sentiment of US stock investors.</p><p>In April 1973, the Watergate Incident intensified, and the uncertainty brought about by the turmoil also had an impact on the capital market. The outbreak of the fourth Middle East war on October 6 further intensified external shocks. Under the influence of the war, oil prices soared and market sentiment further deteriorated.</p><p>On June 6, 1982, the fifth Middle East war broke out, and the market once again turned to worry about the occurrence of imported inflation. On August 12th of the same year, the Mexican Finance Minister officially informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the U.S. government that they were unable to repay the foreign debt of $80 billion, and the Latin American debt crisis began. The ensuing external shocks once again affected the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock market changed the trend of improvement in the third quarter of 1981 and once again fell into a deep decline.</p><p>The Kuwait War in August 1990 triggered the third oil crisis, and oil prices rose again. Investors were particularly worried about this crisis after experiencing the first two rounds of oil crises in the 1970s. The rise in risk premiums also suppressed stock prices.</p><p><b>03. Micro characteristics of the U.S. stock market when the bull-bear transition occurs</b></p><p><b>Historically, U.S. stocks have some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurs: 1) Asset allocation level: households overweight stock assets, and foreign capital inflows have accelerated significantly; 2) Valuation level: P/E and price-to-book ratio are at a high level, the median Tobin Q is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations; 3) Trading level: the circulation of new shares has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the proportion of call options/put options is too high; 4) Technical indicator level: The S&P 500 deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%, and the proportion of stocks above the MA250 has increased significantly.</b></p><p><b>3.1. Asset allocation level</b></p><p><b>1) Household over-allotment assets</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of asset allocation, household over-allotment assets often indicate the arrival of risks. When this allocation proportion exceeds 30%, the market risk is greater.</b>On the one hand, the increase in this allocation proportion reflects the rapid increase in market investor participation, which is often a harbinger of the late bull market; On the other hand, households' over-allocation of risk assets often overdraw the potential of subsequent incremental funds to enter the market. Once the macro liquidity is adjusted, it is difficult for the market to find the injection of incremental funds at the micro level to ease the pressure of liquidity tightening. In terms of historical data, this indicator exceeded 30% in the \"flash crash\" of 1966, the \"Internet bubble\" of 2000 and the bear market under the financial crisis of 2007. At present, the allocation sentiment of American investors is rising day by day, and the proportion of household equity allocation has reached 40.25%, which also exceeds the historical extreme of 38.25% during the Internet bubble period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1196cc373f0817792da6960f339c9a62\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The inflow of foreign capital has accelerated significantly</b></p><p><b>Similarly, the rapid influx of foreign capital is usually a distinctive feature of the late bull market.</b>Under the effect of local preference, foreign capital tends to invest in domestic risky assets, and it will not be attracted by the continuous rise of risky assets in U.S. stocks until the later stage of the bull market that the inflow will accelerate. During this period, the market risk is also relatively large. This indicator successfully confirmed the occurrence of three rounds of bull-bear transitions: the flash crash of \"Black Friday\" in 1987, the expansion of the Internet bubble in 2000, and the plunge under the spread of the financial crisis in 2007. At the same time, it monitored the market correction in April 2010. From the perspective of the relationship between leading and lagging, with the strengthening of the learning effect on US stocks, the flow of foreign capital has gradually developed from lagging behind the market in early 2000 to leading the market in recent years. During the \"Black Friday\" and the \"Internet Bubble\", foreign capital lagged behind the market by 3 months and 8 months respectively. During the financial crisis, the outflow of foreign capital was about 2 months ahead of the adjustment of the S&P 500 index. In 2010, the US stock market pulled back, and foreign capital was also about 2 months ahead of what seems to be long. At present, the inflow of foreign capital in U.S. stocks is accelerating again. The market value of the net inflow of foreign capital in a single month once hit 0.7%. However, at the end of June, an inflection point appeared, and foreign capital began to transfer outward from U.S. stocks.  </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86abb4aaec43194d41d3b67e20f86a25\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.2. Valuation aspect</b></p><p><b>1) P/E and price-to-book ratio are at a high level</b></p><p><b>P/E is a classic indicator to measure the value of assets, reflecting the number of years it takes to recover the investment in stocks under the current profit. Judging from historical data, when this indicator is higher than the historical 95% quantile at that time, the market has greater risk.</b>In 1929, 1961, 1966, and 2000, this indicator was as high as 32.56, 21.25, 22.66, and 44.19, respectively, all higher than the historical 95% quantile. The only year without a bear market in 2018 also experienced a 19.87% correction. At present, P/E has once again exceeded the historical quantile of 95%, surpassing the historical sub-peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, as high as 37.86 times. At the same time, the median P/E of the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index is as high as 25.02 times, breaking through the historical peak of 22.76 times during the Internet bubble period, and being at the historical extreme value since 1990.</p><p>On the other hand, in terms of price-to-book ratio, the price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index reached a peak of 5.04 times at the end of 1999 on the eve of the bursting of the Internet bubble. At present, this indicator is once again close to the historical extreme value, as high as 4.59 times, a new high since October 2000. The median price-to-book ratio of the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index is also at the historical extreme value since 1990.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72dfb9cced8690fc40f868b3d87c399\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f88748b7c4835d402b76a84849485c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The median Tobin Q of the S&P 500 is more than 2 standard deviations above the 7-year moving average</b></p><p><b>Tobin Q is the ratio between the market value of a real asset and its replacement value. When the Tobin Q of the whole market is too much above parity, investors may be too optimistic about future asset returns. Since this indicator has long-term changes due to the trend changes in the proportion of heavy assets of enterprises, we construct a warning indicator of risk level based on two standard deviations compared with the moving average of the previous seven years to eliminate the trend impact.</b>Historically, this indicator was well confirmed during the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2007. Although no systemic risk occurred after this indicator warned of risks in April 2015, the S&P 500 index also subsequently experienced a sharp correction of 14.16%. From the leading and lagging relationship with U.S. stocks, this indicator has a certain leading role. The inflection points of the Internet bubble in 2000 and the Tobin Q indicator in the financial crisis in 2007 were 8 months and 4 months ahead of the index inflection point respectively, and the inflection point in 2015 was also 3 months ahead of the S&P 500 index. Currently, the Tobin Q value once again began to exceed the historical mean by more than 2 standard deviations in April 2021, and began to appear an inflection point in early August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The Buffett Index exceeds the long-term trend by 2 standard deviations</b></p><p><b>The Buffett Index measures the ratio of the total market value of U.S. stocks to GDP, which Buffett calls \"the best single measure of valuation levels at any given moment.\" With the increase in the proportion of direct financing, this value also has a long-term central upward trend. Judging from the trend deviation after eliminating the trend, when the trend deviation of this index exceeds the mean by more than 2 standard deviations, the market often has greater risk</b>(Note: This index is the ratio of the total market value of U.S. stocks to GDP. The GDP data comes from BEA. The total market value of U.S. stocks refers to the CMV algorithm. Before 1970, the company's equity counted by the Federal Reserve was used, and after 1970, the total market value of the Wilshire 5000 Index was used., and continuously adjust the total market value of two different calibers).</p><p>Historically, the Buffett Index hit a high of more than one standard deviation in 1966 and 1968. Before the Internet bubble in 2000, it hit two standard deviations above the mean. Subsequently, the market experienced a bull-bear transition. In this bull market, the market hit 1 standard deviation and 2 standard deviations above the mean in 2015 and 2018 respectively, and then the market experienced corrections of 14.16% and 19.87% respectively. At present, the Buffett index has exceeded the long-term trend by more than 3 standard deviations, and is in a historical extreme state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9360a59851a33d7b6d923ce531f01a\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.3. Transaction level</b></p><p><b>1) The issuance of new shares has increased significantly</b></p><p><b>The circulation of IPOs usually affects the stock price in two ways. On the one hand, when market investors' risk appetite is generally high, initial public offerings are more likely to be over-raised. However, over-raised funds are often not reasonably used by enterprises, thus aggravating the collapse risk of over-raised stocks. Systemic risks are easy to form when IPO issuance is extremely hot; On the other hand, the issuance of new shares also forms a siphon effect on the market in terms of micro-liquidity, which can easily suppress the rise of stock prices.</b>Judging from the history since 2000, there were 643 IPOs issued in a single year during the Internet bubble period. At present, the number of new shares issued in the US stock market has once again exceeded 600. As of September 12, 2021, 788 shares have been issued, a new high since 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5a37941657256518b0b509359a79f9\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Margin liabilities exceed the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations</b></p><p><b>The scale of margin reflects the leverage level of market transactions. Historically, when the leverage ratio is too high, the market often accumulates large potential risks. Once the index begins to fall, it is easy to trigger systemic risks under the chain reaction of stop loss of leveraged funds.</b>During the Internet bubble in 2000 and before the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007, the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations. Among them, in the Internet bubble in 2000, this indicator showed an inflection point at the same time as the S&P 500; In the financial crisis of 2007, this indicator was about three months ahead of the index inflection point. Starting from March 2021, the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market once again exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations, and an inflection point began to appear at the end of June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The proportion of low-priced stocks declined</b></p><p><b>Historically, there has often been a round of low-priced stocks (Penny Stock below $5) in the late bull market and on the eve of the adjustment of risky assets. Against the background of the influx of off-market marginal investors, low-priced stocks can often achieve excess returns.</b>Overall, when the proportion of low-priced stocks is less than 5%, the cumulative market risk is relatively large. This indicator was confirmed by the 19.15% correction in the bear market in 2007, the 19.15% correction in the European debt crisis in 2011, the 12.08% correction in August 2015 and the 19.87% correction in 2018. As of September 12, this indicator once again broke through the critical level of 5%, with a reading of 4.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accb19c41170e09acfed15d4ad569d0c\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4) The ratio of call options/put options in US stocks is too high</b></p><p><b>The call option/put option ratio measures the strength of bullish sentiment in the U.S. stock market compared with bearish sentiment. It often tends to rise to more than 200% at the end of a bull market when investor sentiment is pushed to the extreme.</b>Judging from the history of U.S. stocks since 1991, this indicator once exceeded 200% under the Internet bubble pushed up by irrational emotions in 2000, reaching an extreme point of 220%. At present, this indicator has risen straight after the restart of QE in the context of the epidemic in 2020. The latest reading is 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is already in a relatively dangerous position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4974d62d91c36134dabdc00154f3d30e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.4. Technical aspect</b></p><p><b>1) The S&P 500 deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%</b></p><p><b>Asset prices have an inherent trend of fluctuating around the trend value, so when the stock index deviates from the trend value for a long time, \"mean reversion\" often occurs. Looking at historical data, when the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%, the market has undergone a sharp adjustment.</b>At the turning point of the bull market in 1937, the trend deviation of the S&P 500 reached 65.64%; At the inflection points in 1966 and 1968, the index reached 62.21% and 56.53% respectively; Before the Internet bubble burst in 2000, the index reached a historical peak of 79.98%. The current S&P 500 index has deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020. As of September 10, the trend deviation is as high as 78.20%, close to the historical peak on the eve of the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8691c9ea65ad53e46fa36a2ac90237e2\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The proportion of stocks above MA250 has increased significantly</b></p><p><b>Historically, when most stocks in the stock market are in their long-term<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trendline</a>When it comes to the above, the market often has a greater risk of callback.</b>Judging from the proportion of stocks above MA250 in the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 constituent stocks, in January 1998, March 2010, and April 2011, while the proportion of stocks above MA250 in the S&P 500 constituent stocks exceeded 90%, the proportion of stocks above MA250 in the Russell 3000 constituent stocks exceeded 80%, and the market experienced a correction of more than 15% in these three rounds. The indicator warning inflection points were 6 months, 2 months and 3 months ahead of the market respectively. The current two indicators have once again exceeded the warning values of 90% and 80% since January 2021, and the inflection points will appear in May 2021 and March 2021 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c128791cae417bda367438076f79ffc2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>04. The current U.S. stock environment is more similar to that in 2000</b></p><p><b>4.1. The main characteristics of this bull market</b></p><p><b>The U.S. stock market is currently in the 14th bull market since 1928.</b>This bull market started on March 10, 2009 and has gone through 12.5 years. It is the longest bull market in the history of U.S. stocks. The previous longest bull market was the Internet bubble from October 12, 1990 to March 24, 2000. The span is 9.5 years. At the same time, this bull market is also the largest bull market in history. The 12-year slow bull market has caused U.S. stocks to rise by 559.04%, which also surpassed the 416.98% increase during the Internet bubble and the economic recovery after the Great Depression from July 1932 to March 1937. A cumulative increase of 323.36%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddff39f22ac7ffbdcce7fc5d4fbcbeff\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10ebdb232ba20988d91772362e926c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the end of the global financial crisis in 2008, driven by strong stimulus policies such as quantitative easing, market confidence gradually recovered, and the U.S. stock market returned to its bullish path in March 2009. This bull market roughly presents four stages of growth.</p><p><b>Phase 1: March 2009 to July 2011 (599 trading days, an increase of 98.81%).</b>During this period, the economic bottom out, loose liquidity, economic recovery and the recovery of investor confidence jointly drove the market upward at this stage;</p><p><b>Stage 2: November 2012 to August 2015 (691 trading days, an increase of 55.35%).</b>European debt crisis,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>After the huge losses, fiscal cliffs and other negative news were exhausted, the U.S. economy returned to the track of moderate growth. During this period, the market rose moderately, with biotechnology companies performing outstandingly, driving the Nasdaq index to quickly surpass the S&P 500 and Dow Jones index;</p><p><b>The third stage: July 2016 to September 2018 (558 trading days, an increase of 39.53%),</b>One year after the market was shocked and adjusted due to the withdrawal of QE and the impact of the Federal Reserve rate hike, Trump's tax cuts and fiscal stimulus policies after taking office constituted the main driving force for the upward trend of U.S. stocks. Stimulated by tax cuts and fiscal policies, during this period, U.S. corporate profits continued to grow, pushing U.S. stocks to continue their slow bull market, while the performance and market performance of technology stocks were particularly outstanding;</p><p><b>Stage 4: January 2019 to the present (683 trading days, an increase of 89.64%).</b>After the market was rapidly corrected by the surge in Treasury Bond yields in the fourth quarter of 2018, the shift in macro liquidity in the context of the global economic recession in 2019 drove this round of market. During this period, the market has been attacking all the way since the epidemic hit the correction in early 2020. At this stage, the role of valuation factors has increased significantly, especially after the restart of quantitative easing's policies in response to the epidemic in 2020. The rise in valuation driven by loose liquidity has brought about a rapid rise in the Nasdaq index, and the S&P 500 and The Dow Jones index also rose significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1291e241975d6d0ac900d368b10f29\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the current bull market of U.S. stocks, it mainly presents the following characteristics:</p><p><b>1) The current bull market of large-cap U.S. stocks is driven by both profitability and valuation, while small-cap stocks measured by Russell 2000 are mainly driven unilaterally by profitability.</b>Since 2009, 64.13% of the current round of S&P 500 gains have been driven by profits, 9.45% by the decline of risk-free interest rates, and 26.42% by risk appetite. Profitability is the core driving factor in this bull market. In 2019-2020, the valuation driving effect caused by loose liquidity has increased significantly, and the contribution of loose liquidity to market growth in 2019-2020 accounted for 64.08% and 225.14% respectively. From the perspective of small-cap stocks measured by the Russell 2000 index, during this bull market, the profit factor contributed 80.22% of this round of gains, while the valuation factor affected 19.78%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4642e47ffe5547e7bfe92be55bca3de\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77e5707664b1cf8b1305ea7f9ea6855\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2) Technology Internet companies have performed particularly well.</b>Judging from the 11 industries classified by the S&P 500 Index GICS, information technology companies have performed particularly well in this bull market, ranking first among all industries with an increase of 1268.85%. Compared with the S&P 500 Index, the excess return rate is as high as 712.32%.. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The discretionary consumer industry represented by etc. also performed well, achieving an excess return of 466.83% compared with the S&P 500 index. The technology stock market is most obvious on FAAMG. On a market value-weighted basis, the five technology Internet giants rose by a total of 3906% during this period, far exceeding the rise and fall of the three major stock indexes. From the perspective of EPS changes, profit has played the most important role in the FAAMG market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98440f7788f3df3c7e9d71113053883a\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d8e6fc7067afabcdb7e6b508c56e3b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>3) The significant promotion of the market by the repurchase of listed companies is another significant feature of this bull market.</b>In this bull market, the repurchase of listed companies has played a huge role in boosting it. From the perspective of repurchase scale, at the beginning of this bull market, the single-quarter repurchase scale of the listing announcement in the second quarter of 2009 was only 32.580 billion US dollars. In the first quarter of 2019, the single-quarter repurchase scale expanded to 204.252 billion US dollars, and maintained a single-quarter repurchase scale of more than 150 billion US dollars for many quarters. The effect of repurchase on the stock price is significant. On the one hand, repurchase reduces the company's share capital, which can directly increase the company's earnings per share and return on net assets, and drive the stock price upward from the perspective of performance by reducing the weighted average cost of capital; On the other hand, repurchase can improve corporate governance by optimizing the ownership structure; Finally, the incremental demand provided by stock repurchases and the positive signals released also have significant support for stock prices. Based on this, buybacks in this bull market have played a significant role in promoting EPS and stock prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6deec43db8c4c89438918dcffe777a\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. In terms of micro indicators, where is the current position of US stocks?</b></p><p>From the multiple dimensions of policy, funds, market characteristics, market trading sentiment and valuation, we<b>It is believed that the current U.S. stock market has some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurred in history. This means that even if the major U.S. stock indexes are still likely to rise under the resonance of the global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the market's upside space is already relatively limited. At this point in time, investments in U.S. stocks need to be cautious.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of various micro indicators that characterize the market state:</b></p><p><b>1) Currently, among asset allocation indicators:</b>At present, the allocation sentiment of American investors is rising day by day, and the proportion of households allocating stocks has reached 40.25%, which also exceeds the historical extreme value of 36.98% during the Internet bubble period; In terms of foreign capital, the market value of the net inflow of foreign capital in a single month accounted for 0.7% in June, a new high in nearly 10 years. Since then, an inflection point has appeared. In the previous financial crisis in 2007 and the market correction in 2010, this inflection point was about 2 months ahead of the index.</p><p><b>2) Among the indicators reflecting the rationality of valuation:</b>P/E once again broke through the historical quantile of 95%, surpassing the historical sub-peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, as high as 37.86 times; The median value of P/E, a constituent stock of the S&P 500 Index, has reached a historical extreme; The price-to-book ratio also exceeded 4 times again, a new high since 2000; Tobin Q value and Buffett index exceed the historical mean value and historical trend value by more than 2 and 3 standard deviations respectively, and they are both in historical extreme values.</p><p><b>3) Among transaction-level indicators:</b>The number of new shares issued in the U.S. stock market once again exceeded 600. As of August 20, 2021, 788 shares have been issued, a new high since 2000; As of the end of May 2021, the inflection point appeared in June after the margin liability of the U.S. stock market exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations. During the 2007 financial crisis, this indicator led the inflection point of the index for about 3 months; The proportion of low-priced stocks in the Russell 3000 index once again reached the critical level of 5%; The ratio of call options/put options has risen straight after the restart of QE in the context of the 2020 epidemic. The latest reading is 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is already in a relatively dangerous position.</p><p><b>4) Among technical indicators:</b>The S&P 500 index has deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020. As of September 10, the trend deviation was as high as 78.20%; Among the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 index, the proportion of stocks above MA250 turned downward in May and March respectively after once again exceeding the warning value. In the previous three corrections, this technical indicator was about 4 months ahead of the index's correction.</p><p><b>4.3. In terms of macro characteristics, the current U.S. stock market is different from 2018</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of micro indicators, some of the indicators we currently monitor that represent market conditions have experienced risk warnings in 2000 and 2018. But from the perspective of the macro environment, the current U.S. stock market is facing a very different macro environment from 2018.</b></p><p><b>Fundamentally,</b>Trump's tax cut bill in 2018 greatly improved the profit environment of enterprises. The policy caused the profits of American multinational companies to return, and the improvement of S&P 500 profits offset the sharp drop in valuation. At present, Biden's U.S. employment plan will implement a tax increase policy on enterprises. The implementation of this policy will drag down the profits of U.S. enterprises. This situation is more similar to the pressure on corporate profits in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98613e8dd4e8e7028f8bb8b24a22e3e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"1614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On monetary policy,</b>In 2018, the Federal Reserve is already in a rate hike cycle. After the expected tightening of liquidity, there is still room for display in the context of the global economic slowdown the following year. On the one hand, with the gradual control of the epidemic, the global economy as a whole is in the recovery range. On the other hand, the size of the Fed's balance sheet is already very large, reducing the room for further implementation of loose monetary policy. At the same time, the worsening of the epidemic may also impact market sentiment and suppress risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e9ad7389637055420ba558cb92b261\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. Overall, the current US stock market is more similar to 2000</b></p><p><b>Through the review of bull-bear conversion in the history of U.S. stocks, we believe that the current U.S. stock market has many similarities with 2000.</b></p><p><b>First, both bull markets lasted for ten years. The bubble was mainly spawned by growth stocks, and the structural characteristics of the bull market were remarkable.</b>On the whole, the bull market in 2000 and the current bull market lasted 9.5 years and 12.5 years respectively, and the S&P 500 index rose by 416.98% and 559.04% respectively, ranking the top two in terms of duration and increase; From the perspective of industry, the structural characteristics of the two rounds of stock markets are remarkable. In the bull market in 2000, Internet-related communication technology companies rose astonishingly, which pushed the information technology industry to achieve significant excess returns. In this bull market, the main excess returns of the US stock market were also obtained by the information technology industry and optional consumer industry represented by FAAMG; From the perspective of individual stocks, the two bull markets are structural bull markets driven by a few stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97b5906c0efb0c829712e8ab756fbbf\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc8bcb41cff71c0b3654a9b39f59b34\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"885\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, profitability is the main driving factor in both bull markets.</b>In the bull market in 2000, the three driving factors of profitability, risk-free interest rate and risk appetite accounted for 69.79%, 19.72% and 10.49% respectively; In this round of bull market, the three major driving factors accounted for 74.59%, 9.14% and 16.27% respectively. Profitability was the core driving factor in both bull markets, and the upward trend of liquidity and risk appetite also played a boosting role.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d80b56e3cc0933b034a1915e8322b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, extremely dovish monetary policy has contributed to the inflation of the bubble.</b>At the beginning of his appointment, Alan Greenspan was generally regarded as an Inflation Fighter who was determined to fight inflation. However, as time went by, Alan Greenspan's position became more and more dovish, and he was evaluated by Reuters as \"dove in hawk's clothing\". After the market was generally aware of the existence of the bubble in 1996, Alan Greenspan still tried his best to reject rate hike, and cut interest rates again in 1998 when the capital bubble was about to burst under the \"Southeast Asian financial crisis\". This series of loose monetary policy orientations contributed to the expansion of the bubble in the bull market in 2000. The same situation happened in this bull market. During the presidency of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jeremy Powell, the policy orientation of the Federal Reserve was also dovish. Four rounds of QE injected a lot of liquidity into the market, and the valuation of the US stock market was also significantly pushed up during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4097d0112ecaf093fa646def2defd8c4\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84211344cf593ac529aba7befd20da16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, the valuation bubble of assets in both periods had already occurred two years ago, but the bubble continued further with the help of the loose liquidity environment and the improvement of corporate profits driven by macro policies.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the S&P 500's deviation from the long-term trend value, Schiller P/E and many other indicators, the asset bubble of U.S. stocks in 1998 was already relatively serious. At the same time, with the rapid decline of the US Dollar Index in the Southeast Asian crisis, the continued decline of profits of listed companies, and the rising monetary environment of interest rates. The margin of the monetary environment has tightened, and the S&P 500 index has undergone a phased correction.</b>In 1998, the valuation of U.S. stocks was already at a high level. The S&P 500 Schiller P/E broke through 32.56 before the Great Depression at the end of 1997, hitting a record high.<b>Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett have also warned of the risk of US stock bubble.</b>The third quarter of 1997 was the periodic high of U.S. stock profits at that time. With the successive disclosure of the 1998 semi-annual report, U.S. corporate profits fell marginally for three consecutive quarters, and the market gradually formed a consensus expectation for the continued decline in the performance of listed companies. On the other hand, the rise in interest rates and the rapid decline of the US Dollar Index under the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the marginal tightening of the liquidity environment have also had an impact on the valuation of US stocks. Under various negative factors, the S&P 500 index experienced a 19.15% correction between July 17, 1998 and September 4, 1998.<b>However, driven by the liquidity of the Fed's monetary policy shift at that time, the bubble in U.S. stocks continued to expand for two years.</b></p><p>Affected by the spread of the \"Southeast Asian financial crisis\", the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate three times in a row from September 29 to November 17, 1998. Stimulated by monetary policy, U.S. corporate profits rebounded again, coupled with the shift in the liquidity environment, U.S. stocks rose again. It was not until March 21, 2000 that the Federal Reserve's active rate hike burst the bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb0d40d2fc3ad66b6aab753bea40a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A similar situation occurred in this round of US stocks.</b>In this round of the longest bull market in the history of U.S. stocks, Schiller P/E of the S&P 500 Index once again broke through the extreme value of the Great Depression in January 2018, reaching 33.31 times.<b>Alan Greenspan also warned again of the valuation risk of US stocks on January 31, 2018.</b>In terms of monetary policy, Jerome Powell, newly nominated by Trump on February 5th, did not be \"dove\" as Trump expected. Instead, he issued an optimistic outlook on the US economy, which made the market rate hike expectation rise. The U.S. stock market also began to fall rapidly on September 20, 2018 with the rapid increase in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, with a cumulative decline of 19.87% as of December 24.<b>Similar to 1998, the current round of U.S. stock bubble did not burst, but restarted the bull market again in 2019.</b>On the one hand, Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has improved the profitability environment of American enterprises. The annualized profits of American enterprises have rapidly increased from US $112.8 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to US $141.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, with a compound annualized growth rate of 12.13%. On the other hand, with the slowdown of global economic growth, the monetary policies of major central banks led by the Federal Reserve have also turned again. In May 2019, Powell delivered a speech, making it clear that he would take action at an appropriate time to boost the weak economy. Coupled with the massive fiscal and monetary policies since the epidemic, the bubble in the U.S. stock market continued to expand for two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5236df1c34e6eaf44b9679a37b9ad9ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, overseas liquidity has tightened marginally.</b>The growth rate of M2 in the United States, Europe and Japan has shown signs of peaking.<b>At the same time, Biden's tax increase policy has suppressed the profits of U.S. stock companies.</b>The Made in America tax plan and family plan proposed by the Biden administration will increase taxes on the rich, capital gains and enterprises at the same time, and U.S. stock profits will be impacted. The impact of tax increases may be structural, and technology stocks may bear the brunt. Doubling the GILTI tax rate and the initial 15% global common minimum tax agreement reached with the G7 may make Israel<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The tax pressure of multinational Internet and technology companies, which account for a large proportion of overseas revenue, has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae34a20e783168efc131f7b09ecb32a\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb4a8dff0f65bccb57513e8e008a182\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, three factors may lead to the bull-bear conversion in U.S. stocks: 1) In terms of liquidity:</b>From a historical perspective, the unexpected tightening of monetary policy is generally the most important factor in the occurrence of bull-bear switches. In history, 7 of the 13 rounds of U.S. stock market switches were punctured by monetary policy tightening. The excess liquidity indicator measured by the difference between the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and nominal GDP is about 6 months ahead of the S&P 500 P/E. Since May this year, excess liquidity in the United States has turned from positive to negative. In addition, as the employment recovery in the United States has reached 75%, the Fed's Taper signal may be released with the September Fed's interest rate meeting. The final statement this time will determine the final progress of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57969b185f1d31d18a6fbda29f911f7f\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f76c0ffa0f994260f203b2e017b012\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Profitability:</b>The expected decline in corporate profits caused by tax increase or tax increase expectation has also led to four rounds of bull-bear conversion in history. On the one hand, from the perspective of economic form,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Economic Surprise Index is about 2 months ahead of the S&P 500's excess return relative to Treasury Bond. The current index has fallen sharply and has fallen back to-58.8. On the other hand, judging from the dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 indexes in the next 12 months, although both have declined after entering 2021 with the improvement of corporate earnings expectations amid the economic recovery, they are still at 88% respectively.% and 92% historical highs, earnings recovery has been fully reflected in the current stock price, and future tax increases will further suppress future earnings. In the medium term, whether it is the renewed impact of the economy due to repeated epidemics or the accelerated advancement of Biden's tax increase policy, it will put further pressure on U.S. stocks, which rely on profitability as the core growth driver, and there will be a possibility of Davis double-kill in asset prices in the medium term. There has been a rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1057d43dc958261d75e394f43594b50c\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4732f2da4015dce0c89cebc61870b09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) Risk appetite:</b>The bull-bear sentiment indicator constructed based on the survey results of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that since July this year, market sentiment has begun to adjust rapidly, and the current bear market sentiment in U.S. stocks has gradually dominated. Historically, the U.S. stock market has undergone a relatively large adjustment after this indicator rapidly fell from a high of more than 30. At present, external shocks such as the unexpected fermentation of the epidemic and trade friction may also further impact investor sentiment in US stocks.</p><p><b>05. The economic and financial synchronization between China and the United States has declined, and the impact of external shocks on A shares has weakened</b></p><p><b>With the improvement of the synchronization between China's economy and the world after China's entry into WTO, the plunge of US stocks in 2007 caused a severe impact on A shares.</b>The subprime mortgage crisis triggered the S&P 500 index to fall on October 10, 2007, and then on October 16, A-shares also collapsed rapidly under external shocks. During this round of bear market, the S&P 500 index fell by 56.78, the largest decline in a bear market since 1942, while the decline of the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed that of the U.S. stock market, falling all the way from 6214.04 points to 1664.93 points, with a cumulative decline of 73.21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db7e1efabd197d91b1b0dc7b9f4204f\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, the economic and financial synchronization between China and the United States has declined, and the impact of external shocks on A shares has weakened.</b>Different from the dominant position of the United States in the global economy in 2000 and 2008, China's current share in the global economy continues to rise. Coupled with the unsynchronized economic and monetary cycles between China and the United States, fluctuations in the U.S. market will have far less global spillover effects than in the early 20th century and 2008.</p><p><b>On the one hand, China's global share of GDP calculated by purchasing power parity has now surpassed that of the United States, and at the same time, the dependence of A-shares on foreign trade has dropped significantly.</b>When the subprime mortgage crisis occurred in 2008, China's foreign trade dependence measured by import and export value/GDP was as high as more than 60%, but as of the first quarter of 2021, it was only 34.30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd4cfaedd63b93d9cb60963d2a01d63\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the other hand, the current financial cycles between China and the United States are out of sync.</b>Different from 2008, when my country and the Federal Reserve launched loose monetary policy at the same time, my country's current monetary policy and economic recovery are ahead of overseas countries and are out of sync with the monetary policy of the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b01829398a07e7425bf3fa72ef7307f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Against this background, the rising volatility of U.S. stocks will impact A-share sentiment in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A-shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</b></p><p><b>06. Risk warning</b></p><p>The epidemic situation in developed economies has developed more than expected, the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and the U.S. tax increase has advanced more than expected.</p>","source":"lsy1631604778905","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper is getting closer! Where is the current position of U.S. stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaper is getting closer! Where is the current position of U.S. stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">东亚前海策略团队</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Investment Key Points</b></p><p>U.S. stocks are currently in the longest bull market in history. The cumulative increase of the S&P 500 index in the 12-year bull market since 2009 is as high as 559.04%, setting a historical record for both duration and cumulative increase. We summarize and sort out the macro and micro characteristics of the 13 rounds of bull-bear transition stages in the U.S. stock market since 1928, and compare the present, in order to provide enlightenment to investors:</p><p><b>Overall, the following macro characteristics exist when the bull-bear transition in the U.S. stock market occurs: 1) The valuation is at a high level:</b>In 12 of the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversions, when the market top appeared, the valuation of U.S. stocks was above the 80% quantile.<b>2) liquidity tightening:</b>In history, there have been 10 rounds of bull-bear transitions that occurred in the context of the Federal Reserve's active adjustment of monetary policy. At the same time, there is a high correlation between liquidity tightening and the emergence of inflection points in US stocks.<b>3) Fundamentals deteriorate:</b>Ten of the 13 bear markets have occurred against the backdrop of declining corporate earnings.<b>4) Tax increase:</b>Historically, three rounds of bear markets have occurred in the context of tax increases.<b>5) External shock:</b>External shocks are not necessarily the main driving force behind the market decline, but the suppression of investors' risk appetite by nine external shocks in the bear market will significantly accelerate the market decline.</p><p><b>From the perspective of micro indicators, U.S. stocks will have some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurs: 1) Asset allocation level:</b>Households' over-allocation of stock assets and foreign capital inflows accelerated significantly;<b>2) Valuation level:</b>P/E and price-to-book ratio are at historical highs, the median Tobin Q is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations;<b>3) Transaction level:</b>The circulation of new shares has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the proportion of call options/put options is too high;<b>4) Technical indicator level:</b>The S&P 500 deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50%, and the proportion of stocks above the MA250 rose sharply.</p><p>At present, from the perspective of policy, capital, market characteristics, investor sentiment and valuation, U.S. stocks are currently at historically extreme levels. This means that even if the major U.S. stock indexes are still likely to rise under the resonance of the global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the probability of a sharp adjustment in the market is rising significantly. Investors need to remain highly cautious about U.S. stocks at this time.</p><p><b>Through the bull-bear conversion in the history of review's U.S. stock market, we believe that the current U.S. stock market has many similarities with the Internet bubble in 2000.</b>From the perspective of micro indicators, some of the current indicators that represent market sentiment have warned of risks in 2018 and 2000. However, from the perspective of macro environment, the current U.S. stock market is facing a very different macro environment from 2018, and there are many common characteristics from 2000: First, the two bull markets lasted for ten years, the bubble was mainly spawned by growth stocks, and the structural characteristics of the bull market were significant; Second, profit is the main driving factor in both bull markets; Third, the extremely dovish monetary policy in the two bull markets has contributed to the expansion of the bubble; Fourthly, the valuation bubble of assets in both periods had already occurred two years ago, but the bubble continued further with the help of the loose liquidity environment and the improvement of corporate profits driven by macro policies.</p><p><b>In the medium term, all three factors may lead to the bursting of the bubble in the US stock market.</b>1) With the unexpected recovery of U.S. employment, the Fed Taper signal may be released at the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. The marginal tightening of monetary policy heralded by the opening of Taper will put greater pressure on U.S. stock valuations; 2) On the other hand, the advancement of Biden's tax increase policy will further put pressure on U.S. stock profits; 3) External shocks such as the unexpected fermentation of the epidemic may also bring further downward pressure on U.S. stocks.</p><p>Different from the dominant position of the United States in the global economy in 2000, the current share of China's economy in the world is increasing, and the economic and monetary cycles of China and the United States are out of sync. The occurrence of bull-bear conversion in U.S. stocks may impact A-share sentiment in the short term, but in the long run In terms of speaking, the trend of A-shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The epidemic situation in developed economies has developed more than expected, the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and the U.S. tax increase has advanced more than expected.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Since March 2009, the current bull market in U.S. stocks has a history of 12.5 years, with a cumulative increase of 559.04%. At present, the profit of U.S. stocks is in the repair channel, and the valuation is already at a historical high. Against the background of Taper approaching, the market has great differences on \"where the current position of U.S. stocks\".</p><p>In the previous report \"Revelation of the U.S. Stock Bull Market (Part 1)-The Opening, Development and End of the U.S. Stock Bull Market\", we review the background and market performance of the 13 bull-bear transition periods in the U.S. stock market since 1928. In this report, we will continue to sort out and interpret the changes and significance of macro and micro indicators when the bull-bear conversion of U.S. stocks occurred in the past, and further explore the similarities and differences between the current U.S. stock market and the past, with a view to providing enlightenment to investors.</p><p><b>In the medium term, with the implementation of the overseas Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet during the year, the downward pressure on the domestic economy will gradually emerge, the central bank will promote credit supply, and the inflection point of macro liquidity will gradually approach. In addition, the G20 summit at the end of October is expected to become an important catalyst to promote the improvement of market risk sentiment. From the perspective of the A-share market, with the market switch since August, the current market style has tended to be balanced. Since the beginning of this year, some tracks that have been fully adjusted have initially achieved the value of the left layout.</b></p><p><b>01. 13 rounds of bull-bear conversion since 1928</b></p><p>According to the definition of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a bear market/bull market usually refers to the market's broad-based index falling/rising by more than 20% and lasting for more than 2 months. Based on this identification standard, combined with the adjustment of market consensus, we identified the 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions that U.S. stocks have experienced since the S&P 500 Index was released in 1957 and traced back to 1928.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922d4bd5c0b314cea05ee300f3542e2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First round:</b>In September 1929, intensified speculative activities pushed the valuation of U.S. stocks to a high level. The Federal Reserve took the initiative to rate hike to curb speculative activities. Driven by panic, U.S. stocks experienced the fastest and deepest flash crash in history. From October 23 to October 29 of the same year The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 29.54%, known as the Great Crash in history. After that, as economic fundamentals continued to deteriorate, the market also fell rapidly, and the S&P 500 index fell by 86.16% by July 1932.</p><p><b>Second round:</b>In March 1937, the premature withdrawal of policies during the recovery process after the Great Depression caused the U.S. economy to fall into recession again. The second deterioration of fundamentals severely damaged the confidence of U.S. investors, and the market turned downward again. The S&P 500 Index continued to slump until April 1942 under the haze of World War II, with a cumulative decline of 59.99%.</p><p><b>Third round:</b>In May 1946, after the end of World War II, with the lifting of wartime price controls and the minimum wage increase brought about by trade union forces after veterans returned to the labor market, the United States fell into severe inflation, and the bear market also opened under the background of monetary tightening triggered by inflation. The market continued to be sluggish amid shocks until the economic development returned to the right track in 1950 before restarting the bull market. During this period, the S&P 500 fell by 29.61%.</p><p><b>Fourth round:</b>In August 1956, against the background of continued economic prosperity in the United States and a slight rise in inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve once again implemented a tightening monetary policy. This rate hike not only caused a liquidity impact on the market, but also completely defeated the already fragile market sentiment. The S&P 500 index is down 21.63% in a year.</p><p><b>Fifth round:</b>In December 1961, after a four-year bull market, Schiller P/E of the S&P 500 hit a new high since June 1930. The valuation of U.S. stocks reached a fairly high level. Concerns caused by overvaluations dominated this bear market. In the market, the S&P 500 index fell 27.97% cumulatively, known as the \"Kennedy slide\".</p><p><b>Sixth round:</b>In April 1966, against the background of the outbreak of the Vietnam War, inflationary pressures in the United States reappeared, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy triggered a Credit Crunch in the commercial banking system under the constraints of the 5.5% deposit interest rate ceiling (Regulation Q). The reluctance of commercial banks to lend eventually triggered the Minsky Moment, and the S&P 500 index also experienced a rapid decline at this stage. As of October 1996, the S&P 500 index fell rapidly by 22.18% during this short-lived bear market.</p><p><b>Seventh round:</b>In December 1968, the inflation problem fermented again. In order to prevent further deterioration of inflation, the Federal Reserve quickly tightened liquidity. After the initial shock, the market began to decline rapidly in June 1969. It was not until the marginal easing of monetary policy in 1970 that the decline ended. As of May 1970, the S&P 500 index had fallen by 36.06%.</p><p><b>Eighth round:</b>In January 1973, the collapse of Bretton Woods, the Watergate Incident, and the outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War occurred one after another under the background of stagflation. The Black Swan Incident and the tightening of liquidity under the first oil crisis severely impacted the U.S. capital market. The S&P 500 Index fell sharply from January 1973 to October 1974, with a cumulative decline of 48.2%.</p><p><b>Ninth round:</b>In November, 1980, the U.S. economy fell into recession again, and the decline of corporate profits under the environment of high interest rate stagflation started this bear market. At the same time, Paul Volcker's resolute tightening monetary policy to curb inflation and the fifth Middle East war that broke out in June, 1982 hit the market again. U.S. stocks changed the trend of improving in the third quarter of 1981 and fell into a deep decline again. As of August, 1982, the decline was as high as 27.05%.</p><p><b>Tenth round:</b>In August 1987, the market ended a five-year bull market with a rise of 228.81%. The excessive rise led to the gradual emergence of selling pressure on U.S. stocks. Under the influence of reduced tax incentives and the unexpectedly announced high trade deficit, U.S. stocks ushered in the 20th century. The largest single-day plunge since the century, the S&P 500 plunged 20.5% on October 19, known as \"Black Monday\" in history. As of December of the same year, the S&P 500 had fallen by 33.51%.</p><p><b>Eleventh round:</b>In July 1990, the Kuwait War triggered the third oil crisis, and oil prices rose again. Against the background of inflation expectations pushing up risk-free returns and corporate profits declining in economic recession, the S&P 500 index fell rapidly in just three months. 19.92%.</p><p><b>Twelfth round:</b>In March 2000, the bursting of the Internet bubble ended a decade-long bull market in U.S. stocks. Driven by strong economic growth and stable inflation, the S&P 500 index soared by more than 416.98% in this decade, and the bubble degree of U.S. stocks also reached an unprecedented height. With the puncture of the positive feedback loop in the long-term low interest rate environment by the Federal Reserve rate hike, the profit growth rate of listed companies dropped rapidly, and then the \"Enron Incident\" in March 2001 further pushed the market pessimism to the bottom.</p><p><b>Thirteenth round:</b>In October, 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis turned into a financial crisis and led to a severe economic recession. With the rapid deepening of the crisis, the deterioration of fundamentals and the collapse of investor confidence occurred almost simultaneously, triggering this bear market. The continuous deterioration of corporate profits and the impact of successive bankruptcies such as \"Bear Stearns\" and \"Lehman Brothers\" on the market have pushed U.S. stocks down all the way. As of March 2009, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 56.78%, the largest decline in a bear market since 1942.</p><p><b>02. Macro characteristics of the U.S. stock market when the bull-bear transition occurs</b></p><p><b>Overall, in terms of macro characteristics, the triggers of the 13 rounds of bull-bear switching in the U.S. stock market mainly include the following points: 1) Valuations are at a high level; 2) liquidity tightening; 3) Fundamentals deteriorate; 4) Tax increases and other expectations that suppress profits; 5) Other external impacts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b20864f4239e9df20be4c528a0daa7b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.1. Valuations are at high levels</b></p><p>When the 13 rounds of bull-bear transitions occurred in the history of U.S. stocks, except for the bear market S&P 500 index P/E from 1980 to 1982, when the other 12 rounds of market tops appeared, the valuations of U.S. stocks were all above the historical quantile of 80%. Among them, there were 8 times higher than the historical quantile of 90%, while the Great Depression in 1929, the Kennedy Crash in 1961, the Flash Crash in 1966 and the Internet bubble in 2000 all exceeded 95%.</p><p>The exceptional bear market from 1980 to 1982 occurred in a stagflationary environment. Declining corporate profits dominated this round of bear market, and the market fell further under the impact of liquidity tightening and the fifth Middle East war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb3c95f6f87d1bdcfe7113b3de3e350\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.2. Liquidity tightening</b></p><p><b>The trigger factors for 12 of the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversions in history include the tightening of the liquidity environment, and 9 of them are the Fed's active adjustment of the discount rate or Federal Funds rate.</b></p><p>Among the other three rounds, 1) When the bear market occurred in 1937, the U.S. Treasury Department decided to write off gold inflows to reduce excess reserves, superimposed on the Fed's policy of doubling the deposit reserve ratio. Under the two-way tightening of the base currency and currency multiplier, the previous strong monetary expansion came to an abrupt end, and the marginal tightening of liquidity also had an impact on the market. 2) When the bear market started in 1990, although the Federal Reserve maintained the stability of monetary policy during this period and the Federal Funds rate also maintained a high and volatile pattern, inflation expectations pushed up the risk-free interest rate, and the yield on the ten-year Treasury Bond quickly increased from 8.44% on July 17 to 8.92% on October 11. 3) In the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, although Ben Bernanke creatively invested a variety of financial instruments to put liquidity into the market, the easing of macro liquidity failed to effectively improve the micro liquidity of the market, and the rapid widening of credit spreads put great pressure on the prices of risky assets.</p><p>The only exception is the \"Kennedy Crash\" in 1961. During this round of decline, the U.S. economy was stable, corporate profits were healthy, and interest rates remained relatively stable. According to the research of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it was more investors. Changes in sentiment led to this round of market downturn.</p><p><b>At the same time, liquidity tightening is highly correlated with the inflection point of US stocks.</b>Among the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversions, 8 of them experienced asset price adjustments in liquidity tightening's month, while the capital market inflection points of the \"Great Depression\" in 1929 and the \"Flash Crash\" in 1966 lagged behind the implementation of rate hike's policies by 2 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cea7e94799283b9cbc2e7bf89c040de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec3c9cf3bd9b5bc0da7cdc2e03caa548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.3. Fundamentals Deteriorate</b></p><p>Ten of the 13 rounds of bull-bear conversions in the history of U.S. stocks occurred against the background of declining corporate profits, with only three exceptions.</p><p>Among the three exceptional rounds, in the bear markets of 1961 and 1973, under the stagflation environment brought about by rising commodity prices, rising prices improved the profits of upstream companies. During these two periods, the profit performance of U.S. stocks was still relatively good due to the energy sector. However, the occurrence of \"Black Monday\" in 1987 was more dominated by investors' panic. At that time, programmed trading, which was still in its infancy, and portfolio insurance, an automated trading strategy aimed at hedging the market risk of stock portfolios by shorting stock index futures, had not yet been able to adapt to the flash crash of the market. The stock price drop activated more stop-loss orders for automatic trading, and the stop-loss orders further deepened the stock price decline. The market kept falling in this a vicious circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8345030c65e43922663c02bd695f8100\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.4. Tax hikes and other expectations that suppress earnings</b></p><p>Since 1950, the corporate tax rate in the United States has been lowered many times, with only one sharp increase in 1968. This tax increase was also accompanied by tightening liquidity, resulting in a bear market in which the S&P 500 index fell by 36.06% from 1968 to 1971.</p><p>In addition, during the bear market in 1937, Roosevelt, who was relatively cautious about the fiscal deficit, implemented a tightening fiscal policy of cutting federal expenditure in order to curb government expenditure and balance the budget, and implemented a tax increase policy in the context of the imminent outbreak of World War II in 1940; In 1980, then President of the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRI\">Carter</a>Signed the \"Crude Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act of 1980\", which proposed to impose a 50% windfall profits tax on crude oil production companies. This move suppressed the production enthusiasm of oil companies, brought about a rapid increase in corporate effective tax rates, and ultimately in the energy sector The decline in profits and the high financing cost environment have severely damaged corporate profits in U.S. stocks; In addition, in the \"Kennedy Crash\" of 1961, although no substantial tax increase took place, Kennedy publicly criticized<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">United States Steel</a>This has caused the market to worry about the introduction of suppressive measures for large enterprises, which has brought about \"tax increases\" or related disturbances that suppress corporate profit expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d456d1850581040caca03dbe752ac0\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2.5. External shock</b></p><p>As a relatively mature capital market, U.S. stocks usually have a relatively strong ability to resist risks in history. External shocks such as the Asia-Pacific financial crisis in 1998 and the European debt crisis in 2011 will only bring about a temporary correction in U.S. stock asset prices, but will not trigger a bear market. However, there are still four external shocks in history that have suppressed investors' risk appetite, accelerating the market's decline and deepening the decline of U.S. stocks in a bear market.</p><p>In July, 1956, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser announced the nationalization of Suez Canal, which caused great shocks in European and American countries and also affected the sentiment of US stock investors.</p><p>In April 1973, the Watergate Incident intensified, and the uncertainty brought about by the turmoil also had an impact on the capital market. The outbreak of the fourth Middle East war on October 6 further intensified external shocks. Under the influence of the war, oil prices soared and market sentiment further deteriorated.</p><p>On June 6, 1982, the fifth Middle East war broke out, and the market once again turned to worry about the occurrence of imported inflation. On August 12th of the same year, the Mexican Finance Minister officially informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the U.S. government that they were unable to repay the foreign debt of $80 billion, and the Latin American debt crisis began. The ensuing external shocks once again affected the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock market changed the trend of improvement in the third quarter of 1981 and once again fell into a deep decline.</p><p>The Kuwait War in August 1990 triggered the third oil crisis, and oil prices rose again. Investors were particularly worried about this crisis after experiencing the first two rounds of oil crises in the 1970s. The rise in risk premiums also suppressed stock prices.</p><p><b>03. Micro characteristics of the U.S. stock market when the bull-bear transition occurs</b></p><p><b>Historically, U.S. stocks have some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurs: 1) Asset allocation level: households overweight stock assets, and foreign capital inflows have accelerated significantly; 2) Valuation level: P/E and price-to-book ratio are at a high level, the median Tobin Q is more than 2 standard deviations higher than the 7-year moving average, and the Buffett index exceeds the long-term trend by more than 1.5 standard deviations; 3) Trading level: the circulation of new shares has increased significantly, the market leverage ratio is too high, the proportion of low-priced stocks has declined, and the proportion of call options/put options is too high; 4) Technical indicator level: The S&P 500 deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%, and the proportion of stocks above the MA250 has increased significantly.</b></p><p><b>3.1. Asset allocation level</b></p><p><b>1) Household over-allotment assets</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of asset allocation, household over-allotment assets often indicate the arrival of risks. When this allocation proportion exceeds 30%, the market risk is greater.</b>On the one hand, the increase in this allocation proportion reflects the rapid increase in market investor participation, which is often a harbinger of the late bull market; On the other hand, households' over-allocation of risk assets often overdraw the potential of subsequent incremental funds to enter the market. Once the macro liquidity is adjusted, it is difficult for the market to find the injection of incremental funds at the micro level to ease the pressure of liquidity tightening. In terms of historical data, this indicator exceeded 30% in the \"flash crash\" of 1966, the \"Internet bubble\" of 2000 and the bear market under the financial crisis of 2007. At present, the allocation sentiment of American investors is rising day by day, and the proportion of household equity allocation has reached 40.25%, which also exceeds the historical extreme of 38.25% during the Internet bubble period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1196cc373f0817792da6960f339c9a62\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The inflow of foreign capital has accelerated significantly</b></p><p><b>Similarly, the rapid influx of foreign capital is usually a distinctive feature of the late bull market.</b>Under the effect of local preference, foreign capital tends to invest in domestic risky assets, and it will not be attracted by the continuous rise of risky assets in U.S. stocks until the later stage of the bull market that the inflow will accelerate. During this period, the market risk is also relatively large. This indicator successfully confirmed the occurrence of three rounds of bull-bear transitions: the flash crash of \"Black Friday\" in 1987, the expansion of the Internet bubble in 2000, and the plunge under the spread of the financial crisis in 2007. At the same time, it monitored the market correction in April 2010. From the perspective of the relationship between leading and lagging, with the strengthening of the learning effect on US stocks, the flow of foreign capital has gradually developed from lagging behind the market in early 2000 to leading the market in recent years. During the \"Black Friday\" and the \"Internet Bubble\", foreign capital lagged behind the market by 3 months and 8 months respectively. During the financial crisis, the outflow of foreign capital was about 2 months ahead of the adjustment of the S&P 500 index. In 2010, the US stock market pulled back, and foreign capital was also about 2 months ahead of what seems to be long. At present, the inflow of foreign capital in U.S. stocks is accelerating again. The market value of the net inflow of foreign capital in a single month once hit 0.7%. However, at the end of June, an inflection point appeared, and foreign capital began to transfer outward from U.S. stocks.  </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86abb4aaec43194d41d3b67e20f86a25\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.2. Valuation aspect</b></p><p><b>1) P/E and price-to-book ratio are at a high level</b></p><p><b>P/E is a classic indicator to measure the value of assets, reflecting the number of years it takes to recover the investment in stocks under the current profit. Judging from historical data, when this indicator is higher than the historical 95% quantile at that time, the market has greater risk.</b>In 1929, 1961, 1966, and 2000, this indicator was as high as 32.56, 21.25, 22.66, and 44.19, respectively, all higher than the historical 95% quantile. The only year without a bear market in 2018 also experienced a 19.87% correction. At present, P/E has once again exceeded the historical quantile of 95%, surpassing the historical sub-peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, as high as 37.86 times. At the same time, the median P/E of the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index is as high as 25.02 times, breaking through the historical peak of 22.76 times during the Internet bubble period, and being at the historical extreme value since 1990.</p><p>On the other hand, in terms of price-to-book ratio, the price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index reached a peak of 5.04 times at the end of 1999 on the eve of the bursting of the Internet bubble. At present, this indicator is once again close to the historical extreme value, as high as 4.59 times, a new high since October 2000. The median price-to-book ratio of the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index is also at the historical extreme value since 1990.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72dfb9cced8690fc40f868b3d87c399\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f88748b7c4835d402b76a84849485c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The median Tobin Q of the S&P 500 is more than 2 standard deviations above the 7-year moving average</b></p><p><b>Tobin Q is the ratio between the market value of a real asset and its replacement value. When the Tobin Q of the whole market is too much above parity, investors may be too optimistic about future asset returns. Since this indicator has long-term changes due to the trend changes in the proportion of heavy assets of enterprises, we construct a warning indicator of risk level based on two standard deviations compared with the moving average of the previous seven years to eliminate the trend impact.</b>Historically, this indicator was well confirmed during the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2007. Although no systemic risk occurred after this indicator warned of risks in April 2015, the S&P 500 index also subsequently experienced a sharp correction of 14.16%. From the leading and lagging relationship with U.S. stocks, this indicator has a certain leading role. The inflection points of the Internet bubble in 2000 and the Tobin Q indicator in the financial crisis in 2007 were 8 months and 4 months ahead of the index inflection point respectively, and the inflection point in 2015 was also 3 months ahead of the S&P 500 index. Currently, the Tobin Q value once again began to exceed the historical mean by more than 2 standard deviations in April 2021, and began to appear an inflection point in early August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The Buffett Index exceeds the long-term trend by 2 standard deviations</b></p><p><b>The Buffett Index measures the ratio of the total market value of U.S. stocks to GDP, which Buffett calls \"the best single measure of valuation levels at any given moment.\" With the increase in the proportion of direct financing, this value also has a long-term central upward trend. Judging from the trend deviation after eliminating the trend, when the trend deviation of this index exceeds the mean by more than 2 standard deviations, the market often has greater risk</b>(Note: This index is the ratio of the total market value of U.S. stocks to GDP. The GDP data comes from BEA. The total market value of U.S. stocks refers to the CMV algorithm. Before 1970, the company's equity counted by the Federal Reserve was used, and after 1970, the total market value of the Wilshire 5000 Index was used., and continuously adjust the total market value of two different calibers).</p><p>Historically, the Buffett Index hit a high of more than one standard deviation in 1966 and 1968. Before the Internet bubble in 2000, it hit two standard deviations above the mean. Subsequently, the market experienced a bull-bear transition. In this bull market, the market hit 1 standard deviation and 2 standard deviations above the mean in 2015 and 2018 respectively, and then the market experienced corrections of 14.16% and 19.87% respectively. At present, the Buffett index has exceeded the long-term trend by more than 3 standard deviations, and is in a historical extreme state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9360a59851a33d7b6d923ce531f01a\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.3. Transaction level</b></p><p><b>1) The issuance of new shares has increased significantly</b></p><p><b>The circulation of IPOs usually affects the stock price in two ways. On the one hand, when market investors' risk appetite is generally high, initial public offerings are more likely to be over-raised. However, over-raised funds are often not reasonably used by enterprises, thus aggravating the collapse risk of over-raised stocks. Systemic risks are easy to form when IPO issuance is extremely hot; On the other hand, the issuance of new shares also forms a siphon effect on the market in terms of micro-liquidity, which can easily suppress the rise of stock prices.</b>Judging from the history since 2000, there were 643 IPOs issued in a single year during the Internet bubble period. At present, the number of new shares issued in the US stock market has once again exceeded 600. As of September 12, 2021, 788 shares have been issued, a new high since 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5a37941657256518b0b509359a79f9\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Margin liabilities exceed the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations</b></p><p><b>The scale of margin reflects the leverage level of market transactions. Historically, when the leverage ratio is too high, the market often accumulates large potential risks. Once the index begins to fall, it is easy to trigger systemic risks under the chain reaction of stop loss of leveraged funds.</b>During the Internet bubble in 2000 and before the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007, the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations. Among them, in the Internet bubble in 2000, this indicator showed an inflection point at the same time as the S&P 500; In the financial crisis of 2007, this indicator was about three months ahead of the index inflection point. Starting from March 2021, the margin liabilities of the U.S. stock market once again exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations, and an inflection point began to appear at the end of June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fc9b6db72a25600348e4fdb174728d\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) The proportion of low-priced stocks declined</b></p><p><b>Historically, there has often been a round of low-priced stocks (Penny Stock below $5) in the late bull market and on the eve of the adjustment of risky assets. Against the background of the influx of off-market marginal investors, low-priced stocks can often achieve excess returns.</b>Overall, when the proportion of low-priced stocks is less than 5%, the cumulative market risk is relatively large. This indicator was confirmed by the 19.15% correction in the bear market in 2007, the 19.15% correction in the European debt crisis in 2011, the 12.08% correction in August 2015 and the 19.87% correction in 2018. As of September 12, this indicator once again broke through the critical level of 5%, with a reading of 4.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accb19c41170e09acfed15d4ad569d0c\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4) The ratio of call options/put options in US stocks is too high</b></p><p><b>The call option/put option ratio measures the strength of bullish sentiment in the U.S. stock market compared with bearish sentiment. It often tends to rise to more than 200% at the end of a bull market when investor sentiment is pushed to the extreme.</b>Judging from the history of U.S. stocks since 1991, this indicator once exceeded 200% under the Internet bubble pushed up by irrational emotions in 2000, reaching an extreme point of 220%. At present, this indicator has risen straight after the restart of QE in the context of the epidemic in 2020. The latest reading is 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is already in a relatively dangerous position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4974d62d91c36134dabdc00154f3d30e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3.4. Technical aspect</b></p><p><b>1) The S&P 500 deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%</b></p><p><b>Asset prices have an inherent trend of fluctuating around the trend value, so when the stock index deviates from the trend value for a long time, \"mean reversion\" often occurs. Looking at historical data, when the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index deviates from the long-term trend by more than 50%, the market has undergone a sharp adjustment.</b>At the turning point of the bull market in 1937, the trend deviation of the S&P 500 reached 65.64%; At the inflection points in 1966 and 1968, the index reached 62.21% and 56.53% respectively; Before the Internet bubble burst in 2000, the index reached a historical peak of 79.98%. The current S&P 500 index has deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020. As of September 10, the trend deviation is as high as 78.20%, close to the historical peak on the eve of the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8691c9ea65ad53e46fa36a2ac90237e2\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) The proportion of stocks above MA250 has increased significantly</b></p><p><b>Historically, when most stocks in the stock market are in their long-term<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trendline</a>When it comes to the above, the market often has a greater risk of callback.</b>Judging from the proportion of stocks above MA250 in the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 constituent stocks, in January 1998, March 2010, and April 2011, while the proportion of stocks above MA250 in the S&P 500 constituent stocks exceeded 90%, the proportion of stocks above MA250 in the Russell 3000 constituent stocks exceeded 80%, and the market experienced a correction of more than 15% in these three rounds. The indicator warning inflection points were 6 months, 2 months and 3 months ahead of the market respectively. The current two indicators have once again exceeded the warning values of 90% and 80% since January 2021, and the inflection points will appear in May 2021 and March 2021 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c128791cae417bda367438076f79ffc2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>04. The current U.S. stock environment is more similar to that in 2000</b></p><p><b>4.1. The main characteristics of this bull market</b></p><p><b>The U.S. stock market is currently in the 14th bull market since 1928.</b>This bull market started on March 10, 2009 and has gone through 12.5 years. It is the longest bull market in the history of U.S. stocks. The previous longest bull market was the Internet bubble from October 12, 1990 to March 24, 2000. The span is 9.5 years. At the same time, this bull market is also the largest bull market in history. The 12-year slow bull market has caused U.S. stocks to rise by 559.04%, which also surpassed the 416.98% increase during the Internet bubble and the economic recovery after the Great Depression from July 1932 to March 1937. A cumulative increase of 323.36%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddff39f22ac7ffbdcce7fc5d4fbcbeff\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"928\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10ebdb232ba20988d91772362e926c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the end of the global financial crisis in 2008, driven by strong stimulus policies such as quantitative easing, market confidence gradually recovered, and the U.S. stock market returned to its bullish path in March 2009. This bull market roughly presents four stages of growth.</p><p><b>Phase 1: March 2009 to July 2011 (599 trading days, an increase of 98.81%).</b>During this period, the economic bottom out, loose liquidity, economic recovery and the recovery of investor confidence jointly drove the market upward at this stage;</p><p><b>Stage 2: November 2012 to August 2015 (691 trading days, an increase of 55.35%).</b>European debt crisis,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>After the huge losses, fiscal cliffs and other negative news were exhausted, the U.S. economy returned to the track of moderate growth. During this period, the market rose moderately, with biotechnology companies performing outstandingly, driving the Nasdaq index to quickly surpass the S&P 500 and Dow Jones index;</p><p><b>The third stage: July 2016 to September 2018 (558 trading days, an increase of 39.53%),</b>One year after the market was shocked and adjusted due to the withdrawal of QE and the impact of the Federal Reserve rate hike, Trump's tax cuts and fiscal stimulus policies after taking office constituted the main driving force for the upward trend of U.S. stocks. Stimulated by tax cuts and fiscal policies, during this period, U.S. corporate profits continued to grow, pushing U.S. stocks to continue their slow bull market, while the performance and market performance of technology stocks were particularly outstanding;</p><p><b>Stage 4: January 2019 to the present (683 trading days, an increase of 89.64%).</b>After the market was rapidly corrected by the surge in Treasury Bond yields in the fourth quarter of 2018, the shift in macro liquidity in the context of the global economic recession in 2019 drove this round of market. During this period, the market has been attacking all the way since the epidemic hit the correction in early 2020. At this stage, the role of valuation factors has increased significantly, especially after the restart of quantitative easing's policies in response to the epidemic in 2020. The rise in valuation driven by loose liquidity has brought about a rapid rise in the Nasdaq index, and the S&P 500 and The Dow Jones index also rose significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1291e241975d6d0ac900d368b10f29\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the current bull market of U.S. stocks, it mainly presents the following characteristics:</p><p><b>1) The current bull market of large-cap U.S. stocks is driven by both profitability and valuation, while small-cap stocks measured by Russell 2000 are mainly driven unilaterally by profitability.</b>Since 2009, 64.13% of the current round of S&P 500 gains have been driven by profits, 9.45% by the decline of risk-free interest rates, and 26.42% by risk appetite. Profitability is the core driving factor in this bull market. In 2019-2020, the valuation driving effect caused by loose liquidity has increased significantly, and the contribution of loose liquidity to market growth in 2019-2020 accounted for 64.08% and 225.14% respectively. From the perspective of small-cap stocks measured by the Russell 2000 index, during this bull market, the profit factor contributed 80.22% of this round of gains, while the valuation factor affected 19.78%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4642e47ffe5547e7bfe92be55bca3de\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77e5707664b1cf8b1305ea7f9ea6855\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2) Technology Internet companies have performed particularly well.</b>Judging from the 11 industries classified by the S&P 500 Index GICS, information technology companies have performed particularly well in this bull market, ranking first among all industries with an increase of 1268.85%. Compared with the S&P 500 Index, the excess return rate is as high as 712.32%.. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The discretionary consumer industry represented by etc. also performed well, achieving an excess return of 466.83% compared with the S&P 500 index. The technology stock market is most obvious on FAAMG. On a market value-weighted basis, the five technology Internet giants rose by a total of 3906% during this period, far exceeding the rise and fall of the three major stock indexes. From the perspective of EPS changes, profit has played the most important role in the FAAMG market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98440f7788f3df3c7e9d71113053883a\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d8e6fc7067afabcdb7e6b508c56e3b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>3) The significant promotion of the market by the repurchase of listed companies is another significant feature of this bull market.</b>In this bull market, the repurchase of listed companies has played a huge role in boosting it. From the perspective of repurchase scale, at the beginning of this bull market, the single-quarter repurchase scale of the listing announcement in the second quarter of 2009 was only 32.580 billion US dollars. In the first quarter of 2019, the single-quarter repurchase scale expanded to 204.252 billion US dollars, and maintained a single-quarter repurchase scale of more than 150 billion US dollars for many quarters. The effect of repurchase on the stock price is significant. On the one hand, repurchase reduces the company's share capital, which can directly increase the company's earnings per share and return on net assets, and drive the stock price upward from the perspective of performance by reducing the weighted average cost of capital; On the other hand, repurchase can improve corporate governance by optimizing the ownership structure; Finally, the incremental demand provided by stock repurchases and the positive signals released also have significant support for stock prices. Based on this, buybacks in this bull market have played a significant role in promoting EPS and stock prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac6deec43db8c4c89438918dcffe777a\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.2. In terms of micro indicators, where is the current position of US stocks?</b></p><p>From the multiple dimensions of policy, funds, market characteristics, market trading sentiment and valuation, we<b>It is believed that the current U.S. stock market has some common characteristics when the bull-bear transition occurred in history. This means that even if the major U.S. stock indexes are still likely to rise under the resonance of the global economic recovery in the second half of the year, the market's upside space is already relatively limited. At this point in time, investments in U.S. stocks need to be cautious.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of various micro indicators that characterize the market state:</b></p><p><b>1) Currently, among asset allocation indicators:</b>At present, the allocation sentiment of American investors is rising day by day, and the proportion of households allocating stocks has reached 40.25%, which also exceeds the historical extreme value of 36.98% during the Internet bubble period; In terms of foreign capital, the market value of the net inflow of foreign capital in a single month accounted for 0.7% in June, a new high in nearly 10 years. Since then, an inflection point has appeared. In the previous financial crisis in 2007 and the market correction in 2010, this inflection point was about 2 months ahead of the index.</p><p><b>2) Among the indicators reflecting the rationality of valuation:</b>P/E once again broke through the historical quantile of 95%, surpassing the historical sub-peak of 32.56 before the Great Depression for the third time, as high as 37.86 times; The median value of P/E, a constituent stock of the S&P 500 Index, has reached a historical extreme; The price-to-book ratio also exceeded 4 times again, a new high since 2000; Tobin Q value and Buffett index exceed the historical mean value and historical trend value by more than 2 and 3 standard deviations respectively, and they are both in historical extreme values.</p><p><b>3) Among transaction-level indicators:</b>The number of new shares issued in the U.S. stock market once again exceeded 600. As of August 20, 2021, 788 shares have been issued, a new high since 2000; As of the end of May 2021, the inflection point appeared in June after the margin liability of the U.S. stock market exceeded the trend value by more than 2 standard deviations. During the 2007 financial crisis, this indicator led the inflection point of the index for about 3 months; The proportion of low-priced stocks in the Russell 3000 index once again reached the critical level of 5%; The ratio of call options/put options has risen straight after the restart of QE in the context of the 2020 epidemic. The latest reading is 178%, a new high since 2001, reflecting that investors' risk appetite is already in a relatively dangerous position.</p><p><b>4) Among technical indicators:</b>The S&P 500 index has deviated from the long-term trend by more than 50% since November 2020. As of September 10, the trend deviation was as high as 78.20%; Among the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 index, the proportion of stocks above MA250 turned downward in May and March respectively after once again exceeding the warning value. In the previous three corrections, this technical indicator was about 4 months ahead of the index's correction.</p><p><b>4.3. In terms of macro characteristics, the current U.S. stock market is different from 2018</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of micro indicators, some of the indicators we currently monitor that represent market conditions have experienced risk warnings in 2000 and 2018. But from the perspective of the macro environment, the current U.S. stock market is facing a very different macro environment from 2018.</b></p><p><b>Fundamentally,</b>Trump's tax cut bill in 2018 greatly improved the profit environment of enterprises. The policy caused the profits of American multinational companies to return, and the improvement of S&P 500 profits offset the sharp drop in valuation. At present, Biden's U.S. employment plan will implement a tax increase policy on enterprises. The implementation of this policy will drag down the profits of U.S. enterprises. This situation is more similar to the pressure on corporate profits in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98613e8dd4e8e7028f8bb8b24a22e3e\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"1614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On monetary policy,</b>In 2018, the Federal Reserve is already in a rate hike cycle. After the expected tightening of liquidity, there is still room for display in the context of the global economic slowdown the following year. On the one hand, with the gradual control of the epidemic, the global economy as a whole is in the recovery range. On the other hand, the size of the Fed's balance sheet is already very large, reducing the room for further implementation of loose monetary policy. At the same time, the worsening of the epidemic may also impact market sentiment and suppress risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e9ad7389637055420ba558cb92b261\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4.4. Overall, the current US stock market is more similar to 2000</b></p><p><b>Through the review of bull-bear conversion in the history of U.S. stocks, we believe that the current U.S. stock market has many similarities with 2000.</b></p><p><b>First, both bull markets lasted for ten years. The bubble was mainly spawned by growth stocks, and the structural characteristics of the bull market were remarkable.</b>On the whole, the bull market in 2000 and the current bull market lasted 9.5 years and 12.5 years respectively, and the S&P 500 index rose by 416.98% and 559.04% respectively, ranking the top two in terms of duration and increase; From the perspective of industry, the structural characteristics of the two rounds of stock markets are remarkable. In the bull market in 2000, Internet-related communication technology companies rose astonishingly, which pushed the information technology industry to achieve significant excess returns. In this bull market, the main excess returns of the US stock market were also obtained by the information technology industry and optional consumer industry represented by FAAMG; From the perspective of individual stocks, the two bull markets are structural bull markets driven by a few stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97b5906c0efb0c829712e8ab756fbbf\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc8bcb41cff71c0b3654a9b39f59b34\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"885\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, profitability is the main driving factor in both bull markets.</b>In the bull market in 2000, the three driving factors of profitability, risk-free interest rate and risk appetite accounted for 69.79%, 19.72% and 10.49% respectively; In this round of bull market, the three major driving factors accounted for 74.59%, 9.14% and 16.27% respectively. Profitability was the core driving factor in both bull markets, and the upward trend of liquidity and risk appetite also played a boosting role.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d80b56e3cc0933b034a1915e8322b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, extremely dovish monetary policy has contributed to the inflation of the bubble.</b>At the beginning of his appointment, Alan Greenspan was generally regarded as an Inflation Fighter who was determined to fight inflation. However, as time went by, Alan Greenspan's position became more and more dovish, and he was evaluated by Reuters as \"dove in hawk's clothing\". After the market was generally aware of the existence of the bubble in 1996, Alan Greenspan still tried his best to reject rate hike, and cut interest rates again in 1998 when the capital bubble was about to burst under the \"Southeast Asian financial crisis\". This series of loose monetary policy orientations contributed to the expansion of the bubble in the bull market in 2000. The same situation happened in this bull market. During the presidency of Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jeremy Powell, the policy orientation of the Federal Reserve was also dovish. Four rounds of QE injected a lot of liquidity into the market, and the valuation of the US stock market was also significantly pushed up during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4097d0112ecaf093fa646def2defd8c4\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84211344cf593ac529aba7befd20da16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, the valuation bubble of assets in both periods had already occurred two years ago, but the bubble continued further with the help of the loose liquidity environment and the improvement of corporate profits driven by macro policies.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the S&P 500's deviation from the long-term trend value, Schiller P/E and many other indicators, the asset bubble of U.S. stocks in 1998 was already relatively serious. At the same time, with the rapid decline of the US Dollar Index in the Southeast Asian crisis, the continued decline of profits of listed companies, and the rising monetary environment of interest rates. The margin of the monetary environment has tightened, and the S&P 500 index has undergone a phased correction.</b>In 1998, the valuation of U.S. stocks was already at a high level. The S&P 500 Schiller P/E broke through 32.56 before the Great Depression at the end of 1997, hitting a record high.<b>Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett have also warned of the risk of US stock bubble.</b>The third quarter of 1997 was the periodic high of U.S. stock profits at that time. With the successive disclosure of the 1998 semi-annual report, U.S. corporate profits fell marginally for three consecutive quarters, and the market gradually formed a consensus expectation for the continued decline in the performance of listed companies. On the other hand, the rise in interest rates and the rapid decline of the US Dollar Index under the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the marginal tightening of the liquidity environment have also had an impact on the valuation of US stocks. Under various negative factors, the S&P 500 index experienced a 19.15% correction between July 17, 1998 and September 4, 1998.<b>However, driven by the liquidity of the Fed's monetary policy shift at that time, the bubble in U.S. stocks continued to expand for two years.</b></p><p>Affected by the spread of the \"Southeast Asian financial crisis\", the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate three times in a row from September 29 to November 17, 1998. Stimulated by monetary policy, U.S. corporate profits rebounded again, coupled with the shift in the liquidity environment, U.S. stocks rose again. It was not until March 21, 2000 that the Federal Reserve's active rate hike burst the bubble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb0d40d2fc3ad66b6aab753bea40a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A similar situation occurred in this round of US stocks.</b>In this round of the longest bull market in the history of U.S. stocks, Schiller P/E of the S&P 500 Index once again broke through the extreme value of the Great Depression in January 2018, reaching 33.31 times.<b>Alan Greenspan also warned again of the valuation risk of US stocks on January 31, 2018.</b>In terms of monetary policy, Jerome Powell, newly nominated by Trump on February 5th, did not be \"dove\" as Trump expected. Instead, he issued an optimistic outlook on the US economy, which made the market rate hike expectation rise. The U.S. stock market also began to fall rapidly on September 20, 2018 with the rapid increase in U.S. Treasury Bond yields, with a cumulative decline of 19.87% as of December 24.<b>Similar to 1998, the current round of U.S. stock bubble did not burst, but restarted the bull market again in 2019.</b>On the one hand, Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has improved the profitability environment of American enterprises. The annualized profits of American enterprises have rapidly increased from US $112.8 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to US $141.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, with a compound annualized growth rate of 12.13%. On the other hand, with the slowdown of global economic growth, the monetary policies of major central banks led by the Federal Reserve have also turned again. In May 2019, Powell delivered a speech, making it clear that he would take action at an appropriate time to boost the weak economy. Coupled with the massive fiscal and monetary policies since the epidemic, the bubble in the U.S. stock market continued to expand for two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5236df1c34e6eaf44b9679a37b9ad9ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, overseas liquidity has tightened marginally.</b>The growth rate of M2 in the United States, Europe and Japan has shown signs of peaking.<b>At the same time, Biden's tax increase policy has suppressed the profits of U.S. stock companies.</b>The Made in America tax plan and family plan proposed by the Biden administration will increase taxes on the rich, capital gains and enterprises at the same time, and U.S. stock profits will be impacted. The impact of tax increases may be structural, and technology stocks may bear the brunt. Doubling the GILTI tax rate and the initial 15% global common minimum tax agreement reached with the G7 may make Israel<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The tax pressure of multinational Internet and technology companies, which account for a large proportion of overseas revenue, has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae34a20e783168efc131f7b09ecb32a\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bb4a8dff0f65bccb57513e8e008a182\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In the medium term, three factors may lead to the bull-bear conversion in U.S. stocks: 1) In terms of liquidity:</b>From a historical perspective, the unexpected tightening of monetary policy is generally the most important factor in the occurrence of bull-bear switches. In history, 7 of the 13 rounds of U.S. stock market switches were punctured by monetary policy tightening. The excess liquidity indicator measured by the difference between the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and nominal GDP is about 6 months ahead of the S&P 500 P/E. Since May this year, excess liquidity in the United States has turned from positive to negative. In addition, as the employment recovery in the United States has reached 75%, the Fed's Taper signal may be released with the September Fed's interest rate meeting. The final statement this time will determine the final progress of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57969b185f1d31d18a6fbda29f911f7f\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f76c0ffa0f994260f203b2e017b012\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Profitability:</b>The expected decline in corporate profits caused by tax increase or tax increase expectation has also led to four rounds of bull-bear conversion in history. On the one hand, from the perspective of economic form,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Economic Surprise Index is about 2 months ahead of the S&P 500's excess return relative to Treasury Bond. The current index has fallen sharply and has fallen back to-58.8. On the other hand, judging from the dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 indexes in the next 12 months, although both have declined after entering 2021 with the improvement of corporate earnings expectations amid the economic recovery, they are still at 88% respectively.% and 92% historical highs, earnings recovery has been fully reflected in the current stock price, and future tax increases will further suppress future earnings. In the medium term, whether it is the renewed impact of the economy due to repeated epidemics or the accelerated advancement of Biden's tax increase policy, it will put further pressure on U.S. stocks, which rely on profitability as the core growth driver, and there will be a possibility of Davis double-kill in asset prices in the medium term. There has been a rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1057d43dc958261d75e394f43594b50c\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4732f2da4015dce0c89cebc61870b09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) Risk appetite:</b>The bull-bear sentiment indicator constructed based on the survey results of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that since July this year, market sentiment has begun to adjust rapidly, and the current bear market sentiment in U.S. stocks has gradually dominated. Historically, the U.S. stock market has undergone a relatively large adjustment after this indicator rapidly fell from a high of more than 30. At present, external shocks such as the unexpected fermentation of the epidemic and trade friction may also further impact investor sentiment in US stocks.</p><p><b>05. The economic and financial synchronization between China and the United States has declined, and the impact of external shocks on A shares has weakened</b></p><p><b>With the improvement of the synchronization between China's economy and the world after China's entry into WTO, the plunge of US stocks in 2007 caused a severe impact on A shares.</b>The subprime mortgage crisis triggered the S&P 500 index to fall on October 10, 2007, and then on October 16, A-shares also collapsed rapidly under external shocks. During this round of bear market, the S&P 500 index fell by 56.78, the largest decline in a bear market since 1942, while the decline of the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed that of the U.S. stock market, falling all the way from 6214.04 points to 1664.93 points, with a cumulative decline of 73.21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db7e1efabd197d91b1b0dc7b9f4204f\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>At present, the economic and financial synchronization between China and the United States has declined, and the impact of external shocks on A shares has weakened.</b>Different from the dominant position of the United States in the global economy in 2000 and 2008, China's current share in the global economy continues to rise. Coupled with the unsynchronized economic and monetary cycles between China and the United States, fluctuations in the U.S. market will have far less global spillover effects than in the early 20th century and 2008.</p><p><b>On the one hand, China's global share of GDP calculated by purchasing power parity has now surpassed that of the United States, and at the same time, the dependence of A-shares on foreign trade has dropped significantly.</b>When the subprime mortgage crisis occurred in 2008, China's foreign trade dependence measured by import and export value/GDP was as high as more than 60%, but as of the first quarter of 2021, it was only 34.30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd4cfaedd63b93d9cb60963d2a01d63\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the other hand, the current financial cycles between China and the United States are out of sync.</b>Different from 2008, when my country and the Federal Reserve launched loose monetary policy at the same time, my country's current monetary policy and economic recovery are ahead of overseas countries and are out of sync with the monetary policy of the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b01829398a07e7425bf3fa72ef7307f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Against this background, the rising volatility of U.S. stocks will impact A-share sentiment in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A-shares will be more dominated by internal factors.</b></p><p><b>06. Risk warning</b></p><p>The epidemic situation in developed economies has developed more than expected, the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and the U.S. tax increase has advanced more than expected.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/486616\">东亚前海策略团队</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/486616","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167535940","content_text":"投资要点\n当下美股正处于历史最长的牛市之中。标普 500 指数在 2009 年以来的 12 年牛市中累计涨幅高达 559.04%，无论是延续时长还是累计涨幅都创下了历史记录。我们通过对 1928 年以来美股市场 13 轮美股牛熊转换阶段的宏观和微观特征进行归纳和梳理，比对当下，以期对投资者提供启示：\n整体来看，历轮美股市场牛熊转换发生时存在以下的宏观特征：1）估值处于高位：13 轮牛熊转换中有 12 轮市场顶部出现时美股估值均位于 80% 分位数以上。2）流动性收紧：历史上有 10 轮牛熊转换在美联储主动调整货币政策背景下发生，同时，流动性收紧与美股拐点出现有着高度的相关性。3）基本面恶化：13 轮熊市中有 10 轮均发生在企业盈利下滑的背景下。4）加税：历史上，3 轮熊市发生在加税背景下。5）外部冲击：外部冲击不一定是市场下跌的主要推手，但熊市中 9 次出现的外部冲击对投资者风险偏好的压制会显著加速市场走跌。\n从微观指标来看，美股在牛熊转换发生时会有一些共同特征：1）资产配置层面：家庭超配股票资产、外资流入显著加速；2）估值层面：市盈率与市净率位居历史高位、托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上、巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 1.5 个标准差以上；3）交易层面：新股发行量显著攀升、市场杠杆率过高、低价股占比下滑、看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高；4）技术指标层面：标普 500 偏离长期趋势 50% 以上、MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升。\n目前从政策、资金、市场特征、投资者情绪及估值多个维度看，当前美股都处于历史极端水平。这意味着，即便在下半年全球经济复苏共振之下美股主要指数仍有上行可能，但市场出现大幅调整的概率正在显著上升，当前时点投资者对于美股需要保持高度谨慎。\n通过复盘美股历史上牛熊转换，我们认为当前美股市场与 2000 年互联网泡沫期间有诸多相似之处。从微观指标上看，当前部分表征市场情绪的指标在 2018 年与 2000 年都曾警示过风险，但从宏观环境来看，当下美股面临着与 2018 年迥异的宏观环境，而与 2000 年则存在着多方面共性特征：第一，两轮牛市均历时十年之久，泡沫主要由成长股催生，牛市结构性特征显著；第二，两轮牛市中盈利均为主要驱动因素；第三，两轮牛市中极度鸽派的货币政策均助长了泡沫的膨胀；第四，两段时期的资产均在 2 年前即已出现估值泡沫化的问题，不过在宽松的流动性环境与宏观政策推动的企业盈利改善助力下泡沫得以进一步延续。\n中期来看，三方面因素均可能导致美股的泡沫破灭。1）当下随着美国就业的超预期修复，联储 Taper 信号或于 9 月联储议息会议释放，Taper 开启预示的货币政策边际趋紧将对美股估值造成较大压力；2）另一方面，拜登加税政策的推进也将进一步导致美股盈利承压；3）疫情超预期发酵等外部冲击同样可能给美股带来进一步的下行压力。\n区别于 2000 年美国在全球经济中的主导地位，当前中国经济在全球占比提升，叠加中美经济和货币周期不同步，美股牛熊转换的发生或将在短期内冲击 A 股情绪，但长期而言，A 股走势将更多由内部因素主导。\n风险提示\n发达经济体疫情发展超预期，美联储超预期收紧，美国加税推进超预期。\n正文\n自 2009 年 3 月以来，本轮美股牛市已经历史 12.5 年，累计涨幅高达 559.04%。当前美股盈利处于修复通道，而估值已然处于历史高位，在 Taper 渐行渐近的背景下市场对于 “当下美股处在什么位置” 存在较大分歧。\n在上一篇报告《美股牛市启示录（上）—— 美股历轮牛市的开启、发展与终结》中我们复盘了 1928 年以来美股市场 13 轮牛熊转换时期的背景与市场表现。在本篇报告中，我们将继续梳理、解读过去美股牛熊转换发生时宏微观指标的变化和意义，进一步探讨当下美股市场与历往的异同之处，以期对投资者提供启示。\n中期来看，随着海外联储缩表年内落地，国内经济下行压力逐步显现，央行推动信贷投放，宏观流动性拐点渐行渐近，此外 10 月末 G20 峰会有望成为推动市场风险情绪改善的重要催化剂。从 A 股市场来看，随着 8 月以来的市场切换，当前市场风格已经趋于均衡。今年以来部分调整较为充分的赛道已经初步具备左侧布局价值。\n01 、1928 年以来的 13 轮牛熊转换\n根据美国证券交易委员会的定义，熊市 / 牛市通常指市场宽基指数下跌 / 上涨 20% 以上并持续 2 个月以上，基于这一识别标准，结合市场共识的调整，我们识别出 1928 年（标普 500 指数 1957 年开始发布，并追溯至 1928 年）以来美股经历过的 13 轮牛熊转换。\n\n第一轮：1929 年 9 月，愈演愈烈的投机活动将美股估值推至高位，联储主动加息以遏制投机活动，恐慌情绪推动下美股发生了历史上速度最快、程度最深的闪崩，同年 10 月 23 日至 10 月 29 日道琼斯工业指数下跌 29.54%，史称大崩盘（the Great Crash）。在此之后，伴随着经济基本面的不断恶化，市场也快速下跌，标普 500 指数至 1932 年 7 月累计下跌 86.16%。\n第二轮：1937 年 3 月，大萧条后复苏过程中政策过早的退出导致美国经济再度陷入衰退之中，基本面的二次恶化重创了美国投资者的信心，市场再度拐头向下，标普 500 指数在二战的阴霾的下持续低迷至 1942 年 4 月，累计下跌 59.99%。\n第三轮：1946 年 5 月，二战结束后随着战时价格管制的解除与退伍军人重回劳动力市场后工会力量带来的最低工资上涨，美国陷入了严重的通货膨胀，熊市也在通胀引发的货币紧缩背景下开启。市场在震荡中持续低迷直至 1950 年经济发展回到正轨才重启牛市，期间标普 500 累计下跌 29.61%。\n第四轮：1956 年 8 月，在美国经济持续繁荣、通胀压力小幅抬头的背景下，美联储再度实施了紧缩性货币政策。此次加息不仅对市场造成了流动性冲击，同时也彻底击溃了本就脆弱的市场情绪。标普 500 指数在一年时间里下行了 21.63%。\n第五轮：1961 年 12 月，在经历了 4 年牛市后标普 500 的席勒市盈率创 1930 年 6 月以来新高，美股的估值达到了相当的高位，过高估值引发的担忧情绪主导了此轮熊市，标普 500 指数累计下跌 27.97%，被称为 “肯尼迪大跌”（Kennedy slide）。\n第六轮：1966 年 4 月，越战爆发的背景下美国通胀压力再度显现，而联储的加息政策在 5.5% 的存款利率上限（Regulation Q）的约束下引发了商业银行体系的信贷紧缩（Credit Crunch），商业银行的惜贷最终触发了明斯基时刻（Minsky Moment），标普 500 指数也在这一阶段发生了快速的下跌。截至 1996 年 10 月，这轮短暂的熊市间标普 500 指数快速下跌了 22.18%。\n第七轮：1968 年 12 月，通胀问题再次发酵，为了防止通胀的进一步恶化，联储快速收紧流动性。市场在初期震荡后由 1969 年 6 月开始快速走低，直至 1970 年货币政策边际放松才得以结束下跌行情，截至 1970 年 5 月标普 500 指数累计下跌 36.06%。\n第八轮：1973 年 1 月，滞胀背景下布雷顿森林瓦解、水门事件、第四次中东战争爆发接连发生，黑天鹅事件与第一次石油危机下流动性的收紧严重冲击了美国的资本市场，标普 500 指数在 1973 年 1 月至 1974 年 10 月间大幅下跌，累计跌幅达到了 48.2%。\n第九轮：1980 年 11 月，美国经济再度陷入了衰退，高利率滞胀环境下企业盈利的下滑开启了此轮熊市，同时，保罗・沃尔克为遏制通胀而坚决实施的紧缩性货币政策和 1982 年 6 月爆发的第五次中东战争再度冲击了市场，美股一改 1981 年三季度转好的趋势，再度陷入深跌，截至 1982 年 8 月，跌幅高达 27.05%。\n第十轮：1987 年 8 月，市场结束了长达 5 年涨幅高达 228.81% 的牛市，过快的上涨导致美股的抛售压力逐渐显现，在税收优惠减少与意外公布的高贸易逆差影响下，美股迎来了 20 世纪以来最大幅度的单日暴跌，10 月 19 日标普 500 暴跌 20.5%，史称 “黑色星期一”。截至同年 12 月，标普 500 累计下跌 33.51%。\n第十一轮：1990 年 7 月，科威特战争引发了第三次石油危机，油价再度走高，在通胀预期推高无风险收益率与经济衰退企业盈利下滑的背景下，标普 500 指数在短短 3 个月间快速下跌 19.92%。\n第十二轮：2000 年 3 月，互联网泡沫的破灭结束了美股长达十年的牛市。此前在强劲的经济增长和稳定的通胀推动下，标普 500 指数在这十年中飙升了 416.98% 以上，美股的泡沫化程度也达到了空前的高度，随着联储加息对长期低利率环境下正反馈循环的刺破，上市公司盈利增速快速回落，随后 2001 年 3 月 “安然事件” 等冲击更进一步推动市场悲观情绪滑落至谷底，熊市一直延续至 2002 年 10 月，标普 500 指数累计下跌 49.15%。\n第十三轮：2007 年 10 月，次贷危机演变为金融危机并导致了经济的严重衰退，危机快速的深化下，基本面的恶化与投资者信心的崩溃几乎同时发生，触发了此轮熊市。企业盈利的持续恶化与 “贝尔斯登”“雷曼兄弟” 等接连破产对市场的冲击推动美股一路走低，截至 2009 年 3 月，标普 500 指数累计下跌 56.78%，创 1942 年以来熊市的最大跌幅。\n02、牛熊转换发生时美股市场的宏观特征\n整体来看，在宏观特征上 13 轮美股市场的牛熊切换触发因素主要有以下几点：1）估值处于高位；2）流动性收紧；3）基本面恶化；4）加税及其他压制盈利的预期；5）其他外部冲击。\n\n2.1. 估值处于高位\n美股历史上的 13 轮牛熊转换发生时，除 1980-1982 年间的熊市标普 500 指数市盈率处于低位外，其他 12 轮市场顶部出现时美股估值均位于 80% 的历史分位数以上，其中有 8 次高于 90% 的历史分位数，而 1929 年 “大萧条”、1961 年 “肯尼迪大跌”、1966 年 “闪崩” 和 2000 年互联网泡沫发生时标普 500 指数市盈率均超过了 95% 的历史分位数。\n例外的 1980-1982 年间的熊市发生在滞胀环境之下，企业盈利下滑主导了此轮熊市，市场在流动性收紧和第五次中东战争的冲击下进一步下跌。\n\n2.2 . 流动性收紧\n历史上 13 轮牛熊转换中有 12 轮的触发因素均包括了流动性环境的收紧，其中 9 轮均为美联储主动调整贴现率或联邦基金利率。\n其他 3 轮中，1）1937 年熊市发生时，美国财政部决定对黄金流入进行冲销以减少超额准备金，叠加联储存款准备金率翻倍的政策，在基础货币和货币乘数的双向紧缩下此前强劲的货币扩张戛然而止，流动性的边际收紧同样对市场造成了冲击。2）1990 年熊市开启时，虽然联储在这一期间保持了货币政策的稳定，联邦基金利率也维持了高位震荡格局，但通胀预期推高了无风险利率，十年期国债收益率由 7 月 17 日的 8.44% 迅速提高至 10 月 11 日的 8.92%。3）2007 年次贷危机中，虽然本・伯南克创造性投入了多种金融工具向市场投放流动性，但宏观流动性的宽松并未能有效改善市场的微观流动性，信用利差迅速走阔对风险资产的价格造成了巨大压力。\n唯一例外的仅有 1961 年的 “肯尼迪大跌”，此轮下跌期间，美国经济平稳，企业盈利健康，利率也保持了相对稳定，根据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的研究，更多是投资者情绪的变化导致了此轮市场的低迷。\n同时，流动性收紧与美股拐点有着高度相关性。13 轮牛熊转换中，有 8 次均在流动性收紧的当月即出现了资产价格调整，而 1929 年 “大萧条” 和 1966 年 “闪崩” 的资本市场拐点则相较加息政策的开展滞后了 2 个月。\n\n2.3. 基本面恶化\n美股历史上 13 轮牛熊转换中有 10 轮均发生在企业盈利下滑的背景下，例外的仅有三轮。\n例外的三轮中，1961 年及 1973 年的熊市中，在大宗商品涨价带来的滞胀环境下，价格上涨改善上游企业盈利，这两段期间内受能源板块的拉升美股盈利表现依然相对良好。而 1987 年 “黑色星期一” 的发生则更多由投资者恐慌情绪主导，当时还处于起步期的程序化交易和旨在通过卖空股指期货来对冲股票投资组合的市场风险的投资组合保险这一自动化交易策略尚未能适应市场的闪崩，股价的下跌激活更多自动交易的止损订单，止损订单则进一步加深股价下跌，市场在这一恶性循环中不断走跌。\n\n2.4. 加税及其他压制盈利的预期\n1950 年以来，美国企业税率多次下调，仅在 1968 年发生了一次大幅上调，而这次加税也伴随着流动性的收紧造成了 1968-1971 年间标普 500 指数下跌 36.06% 的熊市。\n除此之外，1937 年的熊市间，对财政赤字相对谨慎的罗斯福为了遏制政府开支和平衡预算，实施了削减联邦支出的紧缩性财政政策，并在 1940 年二战即将爆发的背景下实施了加税政策；1980 年，时任美国总统卡特签署了《1980 年原油暴利税法案》，法案提出对原油生产企业征收 50% 的暴利税，这一举措压制了油企的生产积极性，带来了企业有效税率的快速上行，并最终在能源板块利润的下滑与高融资成本环境重创了美股的企业盈利；此外，1961 年的 “肯尼迪大跌” 中，虽然没有发生实质性的加税措施，肯尼迪公开批评美国钢铁则引起市场形成对大企业压制措施出台的担忧，带来了 “加税” 或相关压制企业盈利预期的扰动。\n\n2.5. 外部冲击\n作为相对成熟的资本市场，美股在历史上通常具有相对较强的抵御风险能力，如 1998 年亚太金融危机、2011 年欧债危机等外部冲击仅会带来美股资产价格的暂时性回调，而并不会触发熊市。但历史上仍有 4 次外部冲击对投资者风险偏好的压制加速了市场的走跌，加深了美股在熊市中的跌幅。\n1956 年 7 月，埃及领导人加迈勒・阿卜杜勒・纳赛尔 (Gamal Abdel Nasser) 宣布将苏伊士运河国有化，在欧美国家中引发了极大的震荡，也影响了美股投资者情绪。\n1973 年 4 月，水门事件愈演愈烈，风波带来的不确定性同样对资本市场造成了冲击，10 月 6 日第四次中东战争的爆发导致外部冲击进一步加剧，战争影响下石油价格飙升，市场情绪进一步恶化。\n1982 年 6 月 6 日，第五次中东战争爆发，市场再度转向担忧输入型通胀的发生。同年 8 月 12 日，墨西哥财政部长正式告知国际货币基金组织（IMF）和美国政府其无力偿还 800 亿美元的外债，拉美债务危机由此拉开帷幕。外部冲击的接踵而至再次影响了美股，美股一改 1981 年三季度转好的趋势，再度陷入深跌。\n1990 年 8 月科威特战争引发了第三次石油危机，油价再度走高，投资者在经历了 70 年代前两轮石油危机后对此次危机格外担忧，风险溢价的走高同样对股价构成了压制。\n03、牛熊转换发生时美股市场的微观特征\n从历史上看，美股在牛熊转换发生时会有一些共同特征：1）资产配置层面：家庭超配股票资产、外资流入显著加速；2）估值层面：市盈率与市净率位居高位、托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上、巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 1.5 个标准差以上；3）交易层面：新股发行量显著攀升、市场杠杆率过高、低价股占比下滑、看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高；4）技术指标层面：标普 500 偏离长期趋势 50% 以上、MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升。\n3.1. 资产配置层面\n 1）家庭超配股权资产\n从资产配置上来看，家庭超配股权资产往往预示着风险的到来，这一配置比重超过 30% 时市场风险较大。一方面， 这一配置比重的提高映射了市场投资者参与度的快速提升，而这往往是牛市后期的预兆；另一方面，家庭超配风险资产往往透支了后续增量资金进入市场的潜力，一旦宏观流动性发生调整，市场很难在微观层面觅得增量资金的注入以缓释流动性紧缩的压力。就历史数据而言，1966 年的 “闪崩”、2000 年的 “互联网泡沫” 和 2007 年金融危机下的熊市中该指标均超过了 30%。当前美国投资者配置情绪日益高涨，家庭配置股权的比例已经高达 40.25%，这也超越了互联网泡沫时期 38.25% 的历史极值。\n\n2）外资流入显著加速\n同样，外资的快速涌入通常也是牛市后期的显著特征。本土偏好效应下外资往往倾向于投资本国的风险资产，直到牛市后期才会受美股风险资产持续上涨的吸引而加速流入，这一时期市场的风险也相对较大。该指标成功印证了 1987 年 “黑色星期五” 的闪崩、2000 年互联网泡沫的膨胀、2007 年金融危机蔓延下的暴跌这 3 轮牛熊转换的发生，同时监测到了 2010 年 4 月的市场回调。从领先滞后关系来看，随着对美股学习效应的加强，外资流向逐步由 2000 年初的滞后于市场发展到近年的领先于市场。“黑色星期五” 和 “互联网泡沫” 中，外资分别滞后于市场 3 个月和 8 个月，金融危机中，外资的流出则领先于标普 500 指数的调整约 2 个月，而 2010 年的美股回调，外资同样领先于似乎长约 2 个月。当前美股的外资流入再度加速，外资单月净流入的市值占比一度触及 0.7%，而 6 月底拐点出现，外资开始由美股向外转移。 \n\n3.2. 估值层面\n 1）市盈率与市净率位居高位\n市盈率是衡量资产价值的经典指标，反映了当前利润下回收对股票投资所需的年数，从历史数据来看，当该指标高于当时历史 95% 分位数时，市场存在较大风险。1929 年、1961 年、1966 年、2000 年，这一指标分别高达 32.56、21.25、22.66 和 44.19，均高于历史 95% 分位数，唯一没有出现熊市的 2018 年也出现了 19.87% 的回调。当下市盈率再次突破 95% 的历史分位数，第三次超过了大萧条前 32.56 的历史次峰，高达 37.86 倍。同时，标普 500 指数成分股的中位市盈率更是高达 25.02 倍，突破了互联网泡沫时期的历史峰值 22.76 倍，处于 1990 年以来的历史极值状态。\n另一方面，从市净率来看，标普 500 指数的市净率曾在互联网泡沫破灭前夕的 1999 年底达到过峰值 5.04 倍。当前这一指标再度接近历史极值位，高达 4.59 倍，创 2000 年 10 月以来新高，标普 500 指数成分股的中位市净率同样也处于 1990 年以来的历史极值位。\n\n2）标普 500 的托宾 Q 中位值高于 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差以上\n托宾 Q 作为实物资产的市场价值与其重置价值之间的比率，当整个市场的托宾 Q 高于平价过多时，投资者可能对未来的资产回报过于乐观。由于该指标受企业重资产占比的趋势性变动影响存在着长期的变化，我们依照相较前 7 年移动平均值 2 个标准差构建风险位的警示指标以剔除趋势影响。从历史上看，2000 年的互联网泡沫与 2007 年金融危机期间该指标均有较好的印证，而 2015 年 4 月该指标警示风险后虽未发生系统性风险，但标普 500 指数随后也发生了 14.16% 的大幅回调。从与美股的领先滞后关系上，该指标具有一定的领先性，2000 年的互联网泡沫和 2007 年金融危机中托宾 Q 指标的拐点分别领先指数拐点 8 个月和 4 个月，2015 年的拐点同样领先标普 500 指数 3 个月。当前，托宾 Q 值再度于 2021 年 4 月开始超过历史均值 2 个标准差以上，并于 8 月初开始出现拐点。\n\n3）巴菲特指数超过长期趋势 2 个标准差\n巴菲特指数衡量了美股总市值与 GDP 的比率，巴菲特称之为在 “任何给定时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。随着直接融资占比的提高，该值也存在长期中枢上行的趋势。从剔除趋势后的趋势偏离度来看，当该指标趋势偏离度超过均值 2 个标准差以上时市场往往存在较大风险（注：该指数为美股总市值相对 GDP 的比值，其中 GDP 数据源自 BEA，美股总市值则参照 CMV 的算法，1970 年之前使用美联储统计的公司股权，1970 年之后使用 Wilshire 5000 指数的总市值，并对两不同口径的总市值作连续化调整）。\n历史上巴菲特指数在 1966 年和 1968 年均触及 1 个标准差以上的高位，在 2000 年互联网泡沫前则触及了均值以上的 2 个标准差，随后市场均发生了牛熊转换。此轮牛市中，市场分别于 2015 年与 2018 年触及均值以上 1 个标准差与 2 个标准差，随后市场分别发生了 14.16% 和 19.87% 的回调。当前巴菲特指数已经突破长期趋势 3 个标准差以上，处于历史极值状态。\n\n3.3. 交易层面\n 1）新股发行量明显攀升\nIPO 的发行量通常从两方面对股价形成影响。一方面，当市场投资者风险偏好普遍较高时，首次公开募股更容易出现超募现象，然而超募资金往往并不能被企业合理运用，从而加剧了超募个股的崩盘风险。IPO 发行热度极高时期容易形成系统性风险；另一方面，新股发行在微观流动性上也对市场形成虹吸效应，容易压制股价的上涨。从 2000 年以来的历史来看，互联网泡沫时期曾经出现过 IPO 单年发行 643 起。当前美股新股发行数量再度突破 600 起，截至 2021 年 9 月 12 日已发行 788 起，创 2000 年以来新高。\n\n2）保证金负债超过趋势值 2 个标准差以上\n保证金负债规模反映了市场交易的杠杆水平，从历史上看，当杠杆率过高时市场往往积蓄了较大的潜在风险，一旦指数开始发生下跌，则容易在杠杆资金止损的连锁反应下引发系统性风险。2000 年互联网泡沫时期和 2007 年全球金融危机爆发前美国股市的保证金负债规模均超过趋势值 2 个标准差以上。其中，2000 年互联网泡沫中，该指标与标普 500 同时出现拐点；2007 年金融危机中，该指标则领先指数拐点约 3 个月。2021 年 3 月开始，美国股市保证金负债再次大超趋势值 2 个标准差以上，并于 6 月底开始出现拐点。\n\n3）低价股占比下滑\n从历史上看，牛市后期与风险资产调整前夕往往都会出现一轮低价股（5 美元以下的 Penny Stock）行情，在场外边际投资者涌入的背景下，低价股往往能取得超额收益。整体而言，低价股占比低于 5% 时市场风险累计相对较大，这一指标在 2007 年熊市、2011 年欧债危机下 19.15% 的回调、2015 年 8 月 12.08% 的回调和 2018 年 19.87% 回调发生时均有印证。而截至 9 月 12 日，这一指标再度突破了 5% 的临界位，读数为 4.03%。\n\n4）美股看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例过高\n看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例衡量了美股市场上看多情绪相较看空情绪的强弱，往往在牛市末期投资者情绪推升至极致时容易上升至 200% 以上。从 1991 年以来的美股历史来看，2000 年非理性情绪推升的互联网泡沫下这一指标曾经突破过 200%，达到了 220% 的极值点。当前这一指标在 2020 年疫情背景下 QE 重启后直线上行，最新读数 178%，创 2001 年以来新高，反映了投资者风险偏好已经处于较为危险的位置。\n\n3.4. 技术层面\n 1）标普 500 指数偏离长期趋势 50% 以上\n资产价格有着围绕趋势值波动的内在趋势，因而当股指长期偏离趋势值时，往往会有 “均值回归” 的发生。从历史数据来看，当通胀调整后标普 500 指数偏离长期趋势超过 50% 时，市场均发生了大幅调整。1937 年的牛市拐点处，标普 500 趋势偏离度达 65.64%；1966 年和 1968 年的拐点处，该指数分别达到 62.21% 和 56.53%；2000 年的互联网泡沫破灭前，该指数更是达到了 79.98% 的历史峰值。当前标普 500 指数从 2020 年 11 月开始偏离长期趋势 50% 以上，截至 9 月 10 日，趋势偏离度高达 78.20%，接近 2000 年互联网泡沫破灭前夕的历史峰值。\n\n2） MA250 以上个股占比大幅上升\n从历史上看，当股市中的多数个股均位于其长期趋势线以上时，市场往往有着较大的回调风险。从标普 500 与 Russell3000 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比来看，1998 年 1 月、2010 年 3 月、2011 年 4 月标普 500 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比突破 90% 的同时 Russell3000 成分股 MA250 以上个股占比突破 80%，市场在这三轮中均发生了 15% 以上的回调，指标警示拐点分别领先于市场 6 个月、2 个月和 3 个月。而当前两指标均于 2021 年 1 月起再度超越了 90% 和 80% 的警示值，拐点则分别出现于 2021 年 5 月和 2021 年 3 月。\n\n04、当前美股环境与 2000 年更加类似\n 4.1. 本轮牛市的主要特征\n当前美股市场正处在 1928 年以来第 14 轮牛市之中。此轮牛市自 2009 年 3 月 10 日开始，至今已历经 12.5 年，为美股历史上最长的牛市，此前最长的牛市为 1990 年 10 月 12 日至 2000 年 3 月 24 日的互联网泡沫，跨度为 9.5 年。同时，此轮牛市也是历史上涨幅最大的牛市，12 年慢牛使美股累计上涨了 559.04%，同样超越了互联网泡沫期间 416.98% 的涨幅与大萧条后经济复苏 1932 年 7 月至 1937 年 3 月累计 323.36% 的涨幅。\n\n2008 年全球金融危机结束后，在量化宽松等强力刺激政策推动下，市场信心逐步恢复，美股市场于 2009 年 3 月重归牛途。此轮牛市大致呈现四个阶段的增长态势。\n 第一阶段：2009 年 3 月至 2011 年 7 月（599 个交易日，涨幅 98.81%）。这一期间经济触底反弹，流动性宽松、经济复苏和投资者信心恢复共同驱动这一阶段的市场上行；\n第二阶段：2012 年 11 月至 2015 年 8 月（691 个交易日，涨幅 55.35%）。欧债危机、摩根大通巨亏、财政悬崖等利空出尽后，美国经济重回温和增长的轨道。这一期间大盘温和上行，其中生物技术公司表现突出，驱动纳斯达克指数涨幅迅速超越标普 500 与道琼斯指数；\n第三阶段：2016 年 7 月至 2018 年 9 月（558 个交易日，涨幅 39.53%），在市场受 QE 退出、联储加息影响震荡调整一年后，特朗普就任后的减税与财政刺激政策构成了美股再度上行的主要驱动力，受减税与财政政策刺激，这一期间美国企业盈利持续增长，推动美股延续慢牛行情，而科技股的业绩及市场表现尤为突出；\n第四阶段：2019 年 1 月至今（683 个交易日，涨幅 89.64%）。在 2018 年四季度市场受国债收益率飙升快速回调后，2019 年全球经济衰退背景下宏观流动性的转向驱动了本轮行情，期间市场在 2020 年初疫情冲击回调后一路上攻至今。这一阶段，估值因素的作用显著提升，尤其是在 2020 年为应对疫情量化宽松政策重启后，宽松流动性驱动下估值的抬升带来了纳斯达克指数的快速上行，标普 500 与道琼斯指数也显著上行。\n\n纵观本轮美股牛市的行情，主要呈现如下几点特征：\n1）本轮美股大盘股牛市由盈利与估值双轮驱动，而以 Russell2000 衡量的小盘股则主要由盈利单方面驱动。从 2009 年以来，本轮标普 500 指数涨幅的 64.13% 由盈利驱动，9.45% 由无风险利率的下降推动，26.42% 由风险偏好驱动。盈利是本轮牛市中最为核心的驱动因素。而 2019-2020 年，流动性宽松引致的估值驱动作用显著提高，流动性宽松对 2019-2020 年市场涨幅贡献占比分别达 64.08% 和 225.14%。从以 Russell2000 指数衡量的小盘股来看，本轮牛市期间，盈利因素贡献了本轮涨幅的 80.22%，而估值因素则影响了 19.78%。\n2）科技互联网企业表现尤为突出。从标普 500 指数 GICS 分类的 11 个行业来看，信息技术企业在本轮牛市中表现尤为突出，以 1268.85% 的涨幅位居各行业首位，相较标普 500 指数的超额收益率高达 712.32%。以亚马逊、特斯拉等为代表的非必需消费行业同样表现突出，相较标普 500 指数取得了 466.83% 的超额收益。科技股行情在 FAAMG 上表现最为明显，以市值加权计，5 家科技互联网巨头企业在这一期间共计上涨了 3906%，远超三大股指的涨跌幅。从 EPS 变动来看，盈利在 FAAMG 行情中起到了最主要的作用。3）上市公司回购对行情的显著推动是本轮牛市又一大显著特征。本轮牛市中，上市公司回购起到了巨大的助推作用，从回购规模来看，本轮牛市初期 2009 年二季度上市公告单季回购规模仅为 325.80 亿美元，而到 2019 年一季度，单季回购规模扩大至 2042.52 亿美元，并持续多季度维持在单季 1500 亿美元以上的回购规模。回购对股票价格的推动作用是显著的，一方面，回购减少了公司股本，可以直接提高公司每股盈利与净资产收益率，并通过降低加权平均资本成本提升从业绩表现角度驱动股价上行；另一方面，回购可以通过优化股权结构提升公司治理水平；最后，股票回购提供的增量需求与释放的积极信号同样对股价有着显著的支撑。基于此，本轮牛市中回购对 EPS 与股价起到了显著的推动作用。\n\n4.2. 微观指标上，当前美股处在什么位置\n从政策、资金、市场特征、市场交易情绪及估值多个维度看，我们认为当前美股市场出现了一些历史上牛熊转换发生时的共性特征。这意味着，即便在下半年全球经济复苏共振之下美股主要指数仍有上攻可能，但市场的上行空间也已经相对有限，这个时点上对美股的投资需要趋于谨慎。\n从表征市场状态的各类微观指标来看：\n1）当下，资产配置指标中：当前美国投资者配置情绪日益高涨，家庭配置股票的比例已经高达 40.25%，这也超越了互联网泡沫时期 36.98% 的历史极值；外资方面， 6 月外资单月净流入的市值占比高达 0.7%，创近 10 年新高，此后拐点出现，此前 2007 年金融危机与 2010 年市场回调中该拐点均领先指数约 2 个月。\n2）反映估值合理性的指标中：市盈率再次突破 95% 的历史分位数，第三次超过了大萧条前 32.56 的历史次峰，高达 37.86 倍；标普 500 指数成分股市盈率中位值则达到了历史极值位；市净率也再度突破 4 倍，创 2000 年以来新高；托宾 Q 值和巴菲特指数分别突破历史均值和历史趋势值 2 个和 3 个标准差以上，均处于历史极值状态。\n3）交易层面的指标中：美股新股发行数量再度突破 600 起，截至 2021 年 8 月 20 日已发行 788 起创 2000 年以来新高；截至 2021 年 5 月底，美国股市保证金负债大超趋势值 2 个标准差以上后拐点于 6 月出现，2007 年金融危机中该指标领先指数拐点约 3 个月；Russell3000 指数中低价股占比再度达到了 5% 的临界位；看涨期权 / 看跌期权比例在 2020 年疫情背景下 QE 重启后直线上行，最新读数 178%，创 2001 年以来新高，反映了投资者风险偏好已经处于较为危险的位置。\n4）技术层面指标中：标普 500 指数从 2020 年 11 月开始偏离长期趋势 50% 以上，截至 9 月 10 日，趋势偏离度高达 78.20%；标普 500 和 Russell3000 指数成分股中 MA250 以上个股占比再度超越警示值后分别于 5 月和 3 月拐头向下，此前三次回调中这一技术指标约领先指数回调 4 个月。\n4.3. 宏观特征上，当前美股市场不同于 2018 年\n从微观指标上看，当前我们监测的部分表征市场状态的指标在 2000 年与 2018 年都曾出现过风险警示。但从宏观环境来看，当下美股面临着与 2018 年迥异的宏观环境。\n基本面上，2018 年特朗普的减税法案极大改善了企业的盈利环境，政策使得美国跨国公司利润回流，标普 500 盈利改善抵消了估值的大幅回落。而当下，拜登的美国就业计划则将对企业实施加税政策，这一政策的实施将对美国企业盈利造成拖累，这一情形更类似于 2000 年时的企业盈利承压局面。\n\n货币政策上，2018 年联储已经处在加息周期中，流动性预期内收紧后在次年全球经济放缓的背景下仍有施展余地，而当下一方面随着疫情的逐步控制，全球经济整体处于复苏区间，另一方面联储资产负债表规模已经很大，降低了宽松型货币政策进一步实施的空间。同时，疫情存在的恶化可能同样会冲击市场情绪，对风险偏好构成压制。\n\n4.4. 整体而言，当前美股市场更类似于 2000 年\n通过美股历史上牛熊转换的复盘，我们认为当前美股市场与 2000 年有诸多相似之处。\n第一，两轮牛市均历时十年之久，泡沫主要由成长股催生，牛市结构性特征显著。从整体来看，2000 年牛市和本轮牛市分别历时 9.5 年和 12.5 年，标普 500 指数涨幅分别达 416.98% 和 559.04%，无论从时长还是涨幅均为历时前两位；从行业上看，两轮股市结构性特征显著，2000 年牛市中，互联网相关的通信技术企业涨幅惊人，推动信息技术行业取得了显著的超额收益率，而本轮牛市中，美股市场的主要超额收益也为以 FAAMG 为代表的信息技术行业和可选消费行业所取得；从个股来看，两轮牛市均为少数个股推动的结构性牛市。\n\n第二，两轮牛市中盈利均为主要驱动因素。2000 年牛市中，盈利、无风险利率和风险偏好三大驱动因素占比分别为 69.79%、19.72% 和 10.49%；而本轮牛市中，三大驱动因素占比分别为 74.59%、9.14% 和 16.27%。两轮牛市中盈利均为核心驱动因素，流动性与风险偏好的上行也均起到了助推作用。\n\n第三，极度鸽派的货币政策助长了泡沫的膨胀。上任之初，艾伦・格林斯潘被普遍认为是一名坚定对抗通胀的鹰派官员（Inflation Fighter），然而随着时间的推移，艾伦・格林斯潘的立场则愈发鸽派，被路透社社评评价为 “披着鹰皮的鸽派（dove in hawk’s clothing）”。在 1996 年市场已经普遍意识到泡沫的存在后，艾伦・格林斯潘依然力排众议拒绝加息，并在 1998 年 “东南亚金融危机” 下资本泡沫即将破灭时再度降息。这一系列宽松的货币政策取向助长了 2000 年牛市中泡沫的膨胀。同样的情形也发生了在本轮牛市之中，本・伯南克、珍妮特・耶伦、杰里米・鲍威尔担任主席时期，美联储政策取向同样偏鸽，4 轮 QE 向市场注入了大量流动性，而美国股市的估值也在这一时期被显著推高。\n\n最后，两段时期的资产均在 2 年前即已出现估值泡沫化的问题，不过在宽松的流动性环境与宏观政策推动的企业盈利改善助力下泡沫得以进一步延续。\n从标普 500 偏离长期趋势值、席勒市盈率等诸多指标来看，1998 年美股的资产泡沫已经相对严重，同时，随着美元指数在东南亚危机中的快速下跌、上市公司盈利持续下滑、利率上行货币环境边际趋紧，标普 500 指数发生了阶段性回调。1998 年美股估值已经处于高位，标普 500 席勒市盈率于 1997 年底突破大萧条前的 32.56，创历史新高，艾伦・格林斯潘和沃伦・巴菲特也相继警示了美股泡沫风险。1997 年三季度是当时美股盈利的阶段性高点，随着 1998 年半年报的陆续披露，美国企业盈利连续三个季度边际回落，市场逐渐形成了对上市公司业绩持续回落的一致预期。另一方面，利率上行叠加东南亚金融危机冲击下美元指数的快速下跌，流动性环境的边际趋紧也对美股估值构成了冲击。多方面利空因素下，标普 500 指数在 1998 年 7 月 17 日至 1998 年 9 月 4 日间发生了 19.15% 的回调。然而，在彼时联储货币政策转向的流动性驱动下，美股的泡沫继续膨胀了 2 年。\n受 “东南亚金融危机” 蔓延的影响，美联储于 1998 年 9 月 29 日 - 11 月 17 日间连续三次下调联邦基金目标利率。在货币政策刺激下，美国企业盈利再度回升，叠加流动性环境的转向，美股再度上行，直至 2000 年 3 月 21 日联储主动加息才刺破了泡沫。\n\n本轮美股也发生了类似的情形。在本轮美股历史上最长的牛市中，标普 500 指数的席勒市盈率于 2018 年 1 月再度突破大萧条时期的极值，达到 33.31 倍。艾伦・格林斯潘也于 2018 年 1 月 31 日再度警示了美股的估值风险。货币政策上，2 月 5 日特朗普新提名的杰罗姆・鲍威尔并未如特朗普预期的 “偏鸽”，反而对美国经济发表了乐观展望，使得市场加息预期上升。美国股市也随着美国国债收益率的快速升高而从 2018 年 9 月 20 日开始快速下跌，截至 12 月 24 日累计下跌 19.87%。与 1998 年相类似的，本轮美股泡沫并未就此破灭，反而在 2019 年再度重启牛市。一方面，特朗普的 2017 年减税和就业法案改善了美国企业的盈利环境，美国企业利润折年数从 2018 年一季度的 1128 亿美元快速提升至 2019 年四季度的 1418 亿美元，复合年化增长率高达 12.13%。另一方面，随着全球经济增速放缓，美联储为首的各大央行货币政策也再度转向。2019 年 5 月，鲍威尔发表讲话，明确表示将在适当时机采取行动以提振疲软的经济，叠加疫情以来的天量财政货币政策，美股的泡沫继续膨胀了两年。\n\n当下，海外流动性已经出现边际收紧，美欧日 M2 增速已经出现见顶迹象。同时，拜登加税政策对美股企业盈利构成压制。拜登政府提出的美国制造税收计划及家庭计划同时对富人、资本利得及企业加税，美股盈利将受冲击。加税带来的冲击可能呈现结构性，科技股恐首当其冲。GILTI 税率翻倍与 G7 初步达成的 15% 全球共同最低税率协定可能使得以苹果、谷歌为首的海外营收占比大的跨国互联网及科技类公司的税负压力明显增大。\n\n中期来看，三方面因素均可能导致美股牛熊转换的发生：1）流动性方面：结合历史来看，货币政策的超预期收紧一般是牛熊转换发生的最主要因素，历史上 13 轮美股市场切换中有 7 轮均由货币政策收紧而刺破，以 M2 同比增速与名义 GDP 同比增速差额度量的超额流动性指标，变动约领先标普 500 指数市盈率 6 个月。今年 5 月以来，美国超额流动性由正转负。此外，当下随着美国就业修复已达 75%，联储 Taper 信号或与 9 月联储议息会议释放，此次的最终表态将决定缩表最终推进的进程。\n\n2）盈利方面：加税或加税预期引致的企业盈利回落预期在历史上也曾导致过 4 轮牛熊转换的发生。一方面，从经济形式来看，花旗经济意外指数约领先标普 500 相对国债的超额回报率约 2 个月，当前这一指数大幅走低，已回落至 - 58.8。另一方面，从标普 500 和 Russell3000 指数的未来 12 个月动态市盈率来看，虽然步入 2021 年后随着经济复苏下企业盈利预期的改善两者均有所回落，但仍分别位于 88% 和 92% 的历史高位，盈利修复已在当前股价中得到充分的体现，而未来加税则将进一步压制未来的盈利。中期来看，无论是疫情反复下经济的再度冲击还是拜登加税政策的加速推进，都将使依赖盈利作为核心增长动能的美股承受进一步压力，在中期出现资产价格戴维斯双杀的可能性有所趋升。\n\n3）风险偏好方面：根据美国个人投资者协会（American Association of Individual Investors，AAII）调查结果构建的牛熊情绪指标显示，自今年 7 月以来，市场情绪已经开始迅速调整，当前美股的熊市情绪已经逐渐占据主导。从历史上看，该指标从 30 以上高位快速回落后美股市场均出现了较大幅度的调整。当下，疫情超预期发酵、贸易摩擦等外部冲击同样可能进一步冲击美股的投资者情绪。\n05、中美经济金融同步性下降，外部冲击对 A 股影响减弱\n随着加入 WTO 后中国经济与全球同步性的提高，2007 年美股的暴跌对 A 股造成了剧烈冲击。次贷危机引发标普 500 指数于 2007 年 10 月 10 日开始下跌，随后的 10 月 16 日，A 股也在外部冲击下快速崩盘。此轮熊市间，标普 500 指数累计下跌 56.78，创 1942 年以来熊市的最大跌幅，而上证指数的跌幅更是超越美股，从 6214.04 点一路走低至 1664.93 点，累计跌幅高达 73.21%。\n\n当前中美经济金融同步性下降，外部冲击对 A 股影响减弱。区别于 2000 年与 2008 年时美国在全球经济中的主导地位，当前中国在全球经济中的占比持续上升，叠加中美经济与货币周期的不同步，美国市场的波动对于全球外溢效应将远小于 20 世纪初与 2008 年。\n一方面，以购买力平价计算的中国 GDP 全球占比现已超越美国，同时 A 股对外贸易依存度显著下降。2008 年次贷危机发生时，以进出口金额 / GDP 衡量的中国对外贸易依存度高达 60% 以上，而截至 2021 年一季度，仅为 34.30%。\n\n另一方面，当前中美金融周期不同步。区别于 2008 年我国与美联储同时启动宽松货币政策，当前我国货币政策和经济复苏领先于海外，与美国的货币政策不同步。\n\n在这一背景下，美股波动上升短期内冲击 A 股情绪，但长期而言，A 股走势将更多由内部因素主导。\n06、风险提示\n发达经济体疫情发展超预期，美联储超预期收紧，美国加税推进超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RTYmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837965930,"gmtCreate":1629853081620,"gmtModify":1676530151072,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837965930","repostId":"1102136193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102136193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629851485,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102136193?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-25 08:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"German regulator BaFin rejects insider trading suspicions in Daimler shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102136193","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Germany’s markets watchdog BaFin said on Tuesday it found no evidence to pursue an inside","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Germany’s markets watchdog BaFin said on Tuesday it found no evidence to pursue an insider trading investigation in the shares of carmaker Daimler, including the purchase of a stake in the UK’s Aston Martin by Mercedes’ Formula One boss.</p>\n<p>BaFin looked into trading at Germany’s Daimler and passed information to counterparts at the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regarding trading in Aston Martin shares, with the FCA also finding no evidence to pursue a probe, the Financial Times newspaper reported earlier.</p>\n<p>“I can confirm that BaFin looked into the transaction with regard to possible suspicions of insider trading (in Daimler securities), but did not find any clues,” the BaFin spokesperson said in an emailed statement.</p>\n<p>Daimler said it had no comment. FCA and Aston Martin did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular working hours.</p>\n<p>Toto Wolff, Mercedes’ Formula One boss, who owns about a third of the Mercedes team, purchased shares in luxury carmaker Aston Martin in April last year.</p>\n<p>Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes, also owns a minority stake in Aston Martin.</p>\n<p>Wolff bought a 0.95% stake in Aston Martin from a vehicle controlled by Lawrence Stroll, the UK carmaker’s executive chair, according to the FT.</p>\n<p>In the following month, Aston Martin appointed Tobias Moers, the former head of Mercedes’ AMG business, as its CEO. In October, Daimler said it would raise its stake in Aston Martin to 20% by 2023.</p>\n<p>Mercedes F1 said Wolff had not been aware of either plan when he acquired the shares and that “all relevant disclosures were made to the UK financial authorities at the appropriate time”, according to the FT. Wolff did not acquire or trade any Daimler shares or securities last year, the newspaper added.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>German regulator BaFin rejects insider trading suspicions in Daimler shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGerman regulator BaFin rejects insider trading suspicions in Daimler shares\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-25 08:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-aston-martin-insidertrading/update-3-german-regulator-bafin-rejects-insider-trading-suspicions-in-daimler-shares-idUSL1N2PV254><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) -Germany’s markets watchdog BaFin said on Tuesday it found no evidence to pursue an insider trading investigation in the shares of carmaker Daimler, including the purchase of a stake in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-aston-martin-insidertrading/update-3-german-regulator-bafin-rejects-insider-trading-suspicions-in-daimler-shares-idUSL1N2PV254\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDAIF":"戴姆勒汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-aston-martin-insidertrading/update-3-german-regulator-bafin-rejects-insider-trading-suspicions-in-daimler-shares-idUSL1N2PV254","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102136193","content_text":"(Reuters) -Germany’s markets watchdog BaFin said on Tuesday it found no evidence to pursue an insider trading investigation in the shares of carmaker Daimler, including the purchase of a stake in the UK’s Aston Martin by Mercedes’ Formula One boss.\nBaFin looked into trading at Germany’s Daimler and passed information to counterparts at the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regarding trading in Aston Martin shares, with the FCA also finding no evidence to pursue a probe, the Financial Times newspaper reported earlier.\n“I can confirm that BaFin looked into the transaction with regard to possible suspicions of insider trading (in Daimler securities), but did not find any clues,” the BaFin spokesperson said in an emailed statement.\nDaimler said it had no comment. FCA and Aston Martin did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular working hours.\nToto Wolff, Mercedes’ Formula One boss, who owns about a third of the Mercedes team, purchased shares in luxury carmaker Aston Martin in April last year.\nDaimler, the parent company of Mercedes, also owns a minority stake in Aston Martin.\nWolff bought a 0.95% stake in Aston Martin from a vehicle controlled by Lawrence Stroll, the UK carmaker’s executive chair, according to the FT.\nIn the following month, Aston Martin appointed Tobias Moers, the former head of Mercedes’ AMG business, as its CEO. In October, Daimler said it would raise its stake in Aston Martin to 20% by 2023.\nMercedes F1 said Wolff had not been aware of either plan when he acquired the shares and that “all relevant disclosures were made to the UK financial authorities at the appropriate time”, according to the FT. Wolff did not acquire or trade any Daimler shares or securities last year, the newspaper added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDAIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953206356,"gmtCreate":1673256434075,"gmtModify":1676538806512,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953206356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011985903,"gmtCreate":1648803886063,"gmtModify":1676534401331,"author":{"id":"3558103634041715","authorId":"3558103634041715","name":"5207418 Ansome","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a646f045566dfc5801020a2df0aad2c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558103634041715","authorIdStr":"3558103634041715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLF\">$克里夫天然资源公司(CLF)$</a>buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLF\">$克里夫天然资源公司(CLF)$</a>buy","text":"$克里夫天然资源公司(CLF)$buy","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b137d9bbf3b60a29dd972ee9967bef27","width":"1080","height":"2193"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011985903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}