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Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943123839","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4140388454599512","authorId":"4140388454599512","name":"POHSWEEGUAN","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/84ca47540279e61404346b705a202bc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$","text":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$","html":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919683470,"gmtCreate":1663800744391,"gmtModify":1676537336870,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919683470","repostId":"1109921858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109921858","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663785473,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109921858?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-22 02:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Is Purposefully Hiking Rates in Commitment to Tame Inflation: Powell's Press Conference","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109921858","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Federal Reserve is raising rates \"purposefully\" to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>The Federal Reserve is raising rates &#34;purposefully&#34; to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting.</li><li>The Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s median expectation for GDP growth was trimmed to 0.2% this year and to 1.2% for next year, he said.</li><li>Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. &#34;The labor market continues to be out of balance,&#34; he added.</li><li>&#34;Price pressures remain evident&#34; across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.</li><li>&#34;At some point&#34; a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.</li></ul><ul><li>In Powell&#39;s estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the &#34;very lowest&#34; level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.</li><li>&#34;My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,&#34; he said.</li><li>&#34;There&#39;s only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we&#39;re seeing, we think that we&#39;ll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.&#34; The central bankers will need to see &#34;clear evidence&#34; that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.</li><li>The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.</li><li>He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. &#34;The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,&#34; but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. &#34;We&#39;re committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.&#34;</li><li>As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn&#39;t considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities &#34;anytime soon,&#34; the Fed chair said.</li><li>The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states &#34;are flush with cash,&#34; he said. &#34;There&#39;s good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,&#34; Powell said.</li><li>A &#34;difficult correction&#34; in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.</li><li>The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.</li><li>Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes &#34;will be enough&#34; to bring inflation down.</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Is Purposefully Hiking Rates in Commitment to Tame Inflation: Powell's Press Conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting.</li><li>The Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s median expectation for GDP growth was trimmed to 0.2% this year and to 1.2% for next year, he said.</li><li>Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. &#34;The labor market continues to be out of balance,&#34; he added.</li><li>&#34;Price pressures remain evident&#34; across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.</li><li>&#34;At some point&#34; a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.</li></ul><ul><li>In Powell&#39;s estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the &#34;very lowest&#34; level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.</li><li>&#34;My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,&#34; he said.</li><li>&#34;There&#39;s only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we&#39;re seeing, we think that we&#39;ll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.&#34; The central bankers will need to see &#34;clear evidence&#34; that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.</li><li>The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.</li><li>He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. &#34;The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,&#34; but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. &#34;We&#39;re committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.&#34;</li><li>As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn&#39;t considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities &#34;anytime soon,&#34; the Fed chair said.</li><li>The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states &#34;are flush with cash,&#34; he said. &#34;There&#39;s good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,&#34; Powell said.</li><li>A &#34;difficult correction&#34; in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.</li><li>The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.</li><li>Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes &#34;will be enough&#34; to bring inflation down.</li></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109921858","content_text":"The Federal Reserve is raising rates \"purposefully\" to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting.The Federal Open Market Committee's median expectation for GDP growth was trimmed to 0.2% this year and to 1.2% for next year, he said.Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. \"The labor market continues to be out of balance,\" he added.\"Price pressures remain evident\" across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.\"At some point\" a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.In Powell's estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the \"very lowest\" level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.\"My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,\" he said.\"There's only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we're seeing, we think that we'll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.\" The central bankers will need to see \"clear evidence\" that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. \"The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,\" but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. \"We're committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.\"As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn't considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities \"anytime soon,\" the Fed chair said.The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states \"are flush with cash,\" he said. \"There's good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,\" Powell said.A \"difficult correction\" in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes \"will be enough\" to bring inflation down.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919065939,"gmtCreate":1663714344821,"gmtModify":1676537319185,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919065939","repostId":"2268391042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268391042","pubTimestamp":1663663883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2268391042?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-20 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268391042","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtr","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.</li><li>The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.</li><li>Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.</li><li>The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5056e902bdaef835ab02d4d345d0153e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>ronniechua</span></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.</p><h2>Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into Recession</h2><h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc3c3e1aa15446ec437054d90c22084f\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"689\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>True_insights (Bloomberg)</span></p></h2><p>Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.</p><p>Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.</p><h2>Earnings Revisions</h2><p>As it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world&#39;s largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.</p><blockquote>Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.</blockquote><p>It&#39;s evident from FedEx&#39;s earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha&#39;s poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.</p><h2>Valuations</h2><p>The S&amp;P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.</p><p>S&amp;P 500&#39;s forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6a297993692762ac59f1dc1b1ea631\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)</span></p><p>There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&amp;P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&amp;P 500 index and almost half of the S&amp;P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&amp;P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.</p><h2>Capitulation Phase</h2><p>After hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7939879a7b810f27e55c49b90c33d95b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>Coatue Management&#39;s investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont&#39;s investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>It is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx&#39;s poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 16:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268391042","content_text":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.ronniechuaThe S&P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into RecessionTrue_insights (Bloomberg)Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.Earnings RevisionsAs it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world's largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.It's evident from FedEx's earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha's poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.ValuationsThe S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.S&P 500's forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&P 500 index and almost half of the S&P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.Capitulation PhaseAfter hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)Coatue Management's investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont's investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.ConclusionIt is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx's poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910626889,"gmtCreate":1663627807741,"gmtModify":1676537301911,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910626889","repostId":"1158905038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158905038","pubTimestamp":1663591588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158905038?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-19 20:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158905038","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factor","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>In this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco&#39;s QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.</li><li>Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.</li><li>I rate QQQ &#39;Neutral&#39; at $290.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53444cd062deb64dcc2310c4eee26ce0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dilok Klaisataporn</span></p><p>Introduction: Where Do We Stand?</p><p>Invesco&#39;s QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here&#39;s what I said at the time:</p><blockquote>In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today&#39;s note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I&#39;m not too fond of QQQ&#39;s risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It&#39;s Complicated</i></blockquote><p>After initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:</p><blockquote>A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market Rally</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a6c2ed14077cf70319e8af4b8ccfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>QQQ&#39;s chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)</span></p><p>Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.</p><p>Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.</p><p>While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&amp;P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed&#39;s September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d4fb12a3da252cd53a6b5e96f4a380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>Legendary investor Warren Buffett&#39;s quote comes to mind:</p><blockquote>Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.</blockquote><p>As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco&#39;s QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4da36ad357f2be93d1e18fbcb5edbc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>GuruFocus</span></p><p>However, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 &amp; Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.</p><p>A Look At Some Recent Market Action</p><p>Broad market indices [S&amp;P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0576618c7710bd346a4a0f9d24e86a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>At my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP &amp; Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF&#39;s (IWF) return of -1.86%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8806662e5af57a7b54a1a3e62a249693\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -</p><blockquote>Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.</blockquote><p>If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.</p><p>Where Is The Market Headed Next?</p><p>I don&#39;t know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ&#39;s June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a46914a4f61975720b899626da4c4047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>WeBull Desktop</span></p><p>If we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:</p><ul><li>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]</li></ul><p>We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that&#39;s when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ&#39;s medium-term risk-reward from current levels.</p><p>Final Thoughts</p><p>The Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -</p><blockquote><b>Don&#39;t Fight The Fed.</b></blockquote><p>And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI&#39;s core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.</p><p>Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ &#39;Neutral&#39; at ~$290.</p><p>While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I&#39;ll leave you with this thought - &#34;Invest actively and manage risk proactively.&#34;</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.</p><p><i>This article was written by Ahan Vashi, </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 20:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158905038","content_text":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.I rate QQQ 'Neutral' at $290.Dilok KlaisatapornIntroduction: Where Do We Stand?Invesco's QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here's what I said at the time:In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today's note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I'm not too fond of QQQ's risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It's ComplicatedAfter initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market RallyQQQ's chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed's September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.YChartsLegendary investor Warren Buffett's quote comes to mind:Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco's QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.GuruFocusHowever, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 & Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.A Look At Some Recent Market ActionBroad market indices [S&P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.YChartsAt my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP & Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI's Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF's (IWF) return of -1.86%.At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.Where Is The Market Headed Next?I don't know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ's June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.WeBull DesktopIf we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that's when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ's medium-term risk-reward from current levels.Final ThoughtsThe Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -Don't Fight The Fed.And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI's core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ 'Neutral' at ~$290.While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I'll leave you with this thought - \"Invest actively and manage risk proactively.\"Key Takeaway: I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.This article was written by Ahan Vashi, for reference only.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910063416,"gmtCreate":1663541360136,"gmtModify":1676537284101,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910063416","repostId":"2268672370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268672370","pubTimestamp":1663460267,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2268672370?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-18 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268672370","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4166c0ac7b0bdf7caa1837ef618a67\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.</p><p>“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.</p><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.</p><p>A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.</p><p>Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.</p><p>Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.</p><p>The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.</p><p>Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.</p><p>William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”</p><p>Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.</p><p>“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.</p><p>The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&amp;P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.</p><p>“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268672370","content_text":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937394208,"gmtCreate":1663369107205,"gmtModify":1676537258531,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937394208","repostId":"1186067066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186067066","pubTimestamp":1663339267,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186067066?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-16 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Platforms Could Be The Most Undervalued Technology Company In The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186067066","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryMeta Platforms has declined by more than 50% in 2022, falling much further than the major ind","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Meta Platforms has declined by more than 50% in 2022, falling much further than the major indices.</li><li>META is now trading at a valuation that puts its share price at a lower price than it was in parts of 2017.</li><li>META is one of the best-positioned companies from a numbers standpoint, with tens of billions in FCF and a clean balance sheet.</li><li>I believe that META is oversold and can be one of the largest recovery stories in 2023.</li><li>I do much more than just articles at Barbell Capital: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e894087fef4c63171b4c071ed5165399\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Despite increasing its revenue by $78.76 billion (193.73%), gross profit by $60.9 billion (173%), cash from operations by $34.25 billion (141.44%), Free Cash Flow (FCF) by $18.35 billion (104.94%), and net income by $17.72 billion (111.32%) over the prior 5 fiscal years, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is trading well below the $176.46 per share it closed 2017 with. </p><p>Over the past year, META has declined by -59.88%, and YTD has fallen well below the major idiocies, declining -55.71%. I am asking myself if META is a broken company or a broken stock? I believe META is a quintessential example of a mispriced stock in the market. </p><p>There are countless aspects that impact a company&#39;s stock price, but looking past perceptions and opinions, the numbers indicate that META is inaccurately valued. Unless financial fraud is occurring, the numbers disclosed on 10Q and 10K reports cannot be manipulated. </p><p>$1 of revenue and $1 of profit is still $1 of revenue and $1 of profit regardless of which industry a company operates in. If a company&#39;s revenue grows from $100 to $150, it doesn&#39;t matter if it&#39;s a technology company or a pharmaceutical company; the growth rate is 50%. </p><p>My feelings are that too many people are disregarding the Metaverse and using it as a narrative as to why META has lost its way, causing negative perception and uncertainty in its stock. </p><p>At the end of the day, the numbers are the numbers, and META&#39;s shares should be trading at a minimum of 80% higher.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/067d21ad0e376f86bcc4225f4d2c7c61\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><h2><b>The numbers are the numbers, and META is not being valued on what they are accomplishing</b></h2><p>The mentality of buying companies that make things and produce consumer staples during inflationary times needs to be replaced with investing in great companies with solid balance sheets that produce large amounts of profits. Unfortunately, out of all the valuation metrics, there isn&#39;t one that is looked at the same way throughout different industries. My opinion is that it&#39;s a tie between META and Alphabet (GOOGL) as to which company has the strongest balance sheet in the entire market. Some would say GOOGL as it has more assets, cash, and equity, but there are many similarities between the two. META has $0 in long-term debt, and its cash position of $40.49 billion is 92% of its total liabilities, which includes capital leases. META isn&#39;t a profitless tech company, yet its shares have plummeted more than -50% in 2022.</p><p>It is astonishing how investors can justify paying double the Price to Free Cash Flow (FCF) multiple for The Coca-Cola Company (KO) than META, when META produces more than double the amount of FCF, and profits. The Price to FCF metric is a longtime favorite of mine that has recently become popular as FCF has become important again. FCF is often looked at as one of the best measures of profitability as FCF excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. To some investors, FCF is more important to analyze than net income because it&#39;s harder to manipulate as it is a true indication of the company&#39;s cash. FCF is also the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business. With every investment, you&#39;re paying the current value for a company&#39;s present and future cash flow. More commentators on financial networks have discussed the importance of generating FCF in the past 6 months than in the past 3 years.</p><p>I will go through META&#39;s financials, but to show how undervalued its shares are, I will compare META to 10 other companies. I am selecting companies from big tech and consumer staples to show the level of FCF produced in different industries and the price to FCF multiple for each company. This comparison will show that the methodology of investing in companies that produce things should be updated to investing in companies that produce strong cash flow, regardless of the industry they operate in. The companies I will compare META to are:</p><ul><li>Apple (AAPL)</li><li>Microsoft (MSFT)</li><li>Amazon (AMZN)</li><li>Alphabet (GOOGL)</li><li>Tesla (TSLA)</li><li>Procter &amp; Gamble (PG)</li><li>The Coca-Cola Company (KO)</li><li>Kimberly-Clark (KMB)</li><li>McDonald&#39;s (MCD)</li><li>PepsiCo (PEP)</li></ul><p>In addition to adding the disclosure at the end, I want to be clear prior to the analysis that I am a shareholder of AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA, and KO. The numbers are the numbers and cannot be manipulated, and I am not cherry-picking information. I will be using the FCF over the TTM as the amount of FCF produced, not a projected Forward FCF number.</p><p>Below is a table of the price to FCF multiple Mr. Market has placed on each of these companies at the close of business on 9/15.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf7dd587e809c33c52bf46c57ba1993c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, Steven Fiorillo</span></p><p>First, I will start by comparing META to the consumer staples companies I selected. The average price to FCF across PEP, MCD, KO, PG, and KMB is 27.82x. These companies have an average market cap of $208.34 billion and generate an average of $7.59 billion of FCF. PG is the largest company in this group, with a market cap of $327.86 billion, generating $13.57 billion in FCF, with a price to FCF multiple of 24.17x. KMB has the lowest FCF multiple of 22.65x and generated $1.8 billion of FCF in the TTM.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96b576061282a7b5f2c693c23d683d0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, Steven Fiorillo</span></p><p>When I compare META to these companies, META&#39;s share price has fallen off a cliff while these consumer staples have a range of appreciating by 0.39% to declining by -15.63%. They have been safer investments, providing better downside risk mitigation while paying quarterly dividends to shareholders.</p><p>Here is where valuations get interesting. KMB has a market cap of $40.99 billion, generated $1.81 billion of FCF, and trades at a price to FCF multiple of 22.65x. META&#39;s market cap is 9.8x larger than KMB, yet it produces 19.8x the amount of FCF than KMB. You can purchase shares of META for a price to FCF multiple of 11.22x, which is slightly less than half the multiple Mr. Market has given KMB at 22.65x. The valuations do not make sense. If you were buying an entire company, would you rather purchase KMB for $40.99 billion when it generates $1.81 billion of FCF or META for $401.92 billion when it generates $35.83 billion in FCF? I would rather buy META at 9.8x the price tag to generate 19.8x more FCF, especially since I am paying a multiple of 11.22x for its FCF.</p><p>If I look at PG instead, PG has a similar market cap to META at $327.86 billion and produces $13.57 billion of FCF. PG is currently trading at a price to FCF multiple of 24.17x. This valuation also doesn&#39;t make sense as META is priced at a price-to-FCF ratio that is 53.58% less than PG&#39;s. META&#39;s market cap is only 22.59% larger than PG&#39;s, yet it generates 264.1% more FCF than PG. For an additional $74.06 billion (22.59% larger), you could buy the entire company of META and generate an additional $22.26 billion of annual FCF.</p><p>Looking at the most expensive staple, PEP, the valuations become even more unrealistic. PEP has generated $6.34 billion of FCF in the TTM and trades at a price to FCF multiple of 36.12x. FB has a market cap that&#39;s 75.57% larger than PEP, yet it produces 565.32% more FCF than PEP. The market has placed a multiple of more than 3x PEP&#39;s FCF on its price compared to how META trades.</p><p>These examples are to illustrate how the market values different types of companies. At the end of the day, the numbers and the numbers, and $1 of FCF is $1 of FCF, it doesn&#39;t matter if you&#39;re selling Tide laundry detergent, a can of Pepsi, or ads on Facebook. META generates tens of billions more in FCF than these consumer staples and trades at a fraction of the valuation, which in my opinion, is an indication that META is grossly misvalued in the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7b41ccbf9f032556a7dc82aaf95a28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cf0fd52142b1d0c959b14d640871c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, Steven Fiorillo</span></p><p>I wanted to compare META to consumer staple companies first because media commentators have been discussing allocating capital toward defensive companies, which has traditionally meant consumer staples. I believe cash is king and the combination of companies with growing revenues, large profits, large FCF, and clean balance sheets is where capital should be allocated to regardless of the economic environment.</p><p>When I look at META compared to the other large tech companies, META once again looks undervalued. The goal in business is to generate a profit, and AMZN has been operating at a negative FCF and low-profit margin in the TTM, yet its market cap vastly overshadows META&#39;s. In the TTM,AMZNhas generated $11.61 billion in net income compared to META&#39;s $33.63 billion of net income, yet its market cap is more than 3x the size. AMZN has also generated $35.57 billion of cash from operations in the TTM, placing its FCF at -$29.78 billion as they have allocated $65.36 billion toward CapEx. AMZN has a profit margin of 2.39% compared to META&#39;s 28.16%. Looking at AMZN&#39;s negative FCF, and low-profit margin, it&#39;s hard to justify META&#39;s 11.22x price to FCF.</p><p>The market has loved TSLA, and its market cap is on the verge of surpassing $1 trillion. Currently, TSLA has produced $6.94 billion in FCF and trades at a price to FCF multiple of 137.21x. Many investors would say you need to look at TSLA&#39;s growth, so I did. Since the close of 2018, TSLA has grown its revenue by $45.71 billion (212.97%) while META has grown its revenue by $63.57 billion (113.85%). While TSLA&#39;s growth rate is larger, META has grown its revenue by a significantly larger amount in the same period. Looking at net income, TSLA has grown its net income by $10.5 billion to $9.52 billion since the close of 2018, while META has grown its net income by $11.52 billion to $33.63 billion in the same period. When I look at the growth of TSLA, it&#39;s impressive, and TSLA is doing so many things well, but the valuation is broken. TSLA trading at 137.21x its FCF compared to META at 11.22x is, in my opinion, an indication that META is undervalued. Would you rather buy a company for $951.79 billion that produces $6.94 billion in FCF, or a company for $401.92 billion, producing $35.83 billion of FCF?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d076a04b04d1dac58a237adf8a51eeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Even if the Metaverse is a flop, META is paying for its development in cash, isn&#39;t taking on debt, and shouldn&#39;t be penalized because others can&#39;t understand Zuckerberg&#39;s vision</b></p><p>One of the reasons I believe META has been discarded is that many investors don&#39;t agree with META&#39;s play on the Metaverse. Whether the Metaverse will work or become mainstream is a debate that can&#39;t be won at this point in time, and we will need to wait and see how the story unfolds. The aspect that can be discussed is how the Metaverse is impacting META&#39;s numbers and whether it is a liability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1d73b4ceb140399b8cdf08713b80199\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As I indicated earlier, META has one of the cleanest balance sheets you will ever read. Debt is not in META&#39;s vocabulary, as long-term debt will not be found on its balance sheet. META has a cash-to-total liability ratio of 0.92x and can pay off almost every liability tomorrow with a check. Debating if the Metaverse will work is a moot point because, in the end, it doesn&#39;t matter. META isn&#39;t taking on debt to fund this project, so if it doesn&#39;t work, it will be chalked up as an expensive failed experiment, but if it is successful, the Metaverse could become a tremendous revenue generator and profit center. While billions in capital are being spent on the Metaverse, META has also been buying back shares. Over the previous 4 years, META has repurchased 5.37% of its outstanding shares, which amounts to 166.5 million shares.</p><p>Looking forward, META is expected to continue to grow in 2023. In the TTM META has generated $119.41 billion of revenue and produced $12.22 in EPS. The consensus estimates are that META will generate $118.16 billion of revenue in 2022 and $131.1 billion in 2023, and on the high side, those numbers could be $128.54 billion in 2022 and $154.65 billion in 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5223c386715b658f764c34ae34cd4e94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>META and GOOGL have a duopoly on advertising, and regardless of what AMZN, AAPL, or Netflix (NFLX) plans to incorporate into their platforms, it&#39;s hard to run a business without a website, Instagram page, or a Facebook page. If META maintains its profit margin of 28.16%, it could generate $33.28 billion of net income in 2022 based on the analyst consensus and $36.92 billion in 2023. If META exceeds expectations, it could generate over $35 billion of profit in 2022 and $40 billion in 2023. META is being priced as if a fire sale is occurring, and I believe it&#39;s due to public perception, not the numbers.</p><h2><b>Conclusion</b></h2><p>The markets may continue to be extremely volatile going into the next Fed meeting, and there is no telling how the markets will react if we receive a 75 basis point increase. META is trading where it did in 2017, yet it&#39;s improved in every financial metric and printed tens of billions in profits and FCF annually. While there are no signals that the pain is over, I am continuing to purchase META on the way down. META&#39;s current valuation and financials indicate that this is a broken stock, not a broken company. From a numbers standpoint, META looks to be the best buy in big tech and possibly one of the best buys in the market if you have a long-term perspective.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Platforms Could Be The Most Undervalued Technology Company In The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Platforms Could Be The Most Undervalued Technology Company In The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-16 22:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541361-meta-platforms-could-be-most-undervalued-technology-company?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A4><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMeta Platforms has declined by more than 50% in 2022, falling much further than the major indices.META is now trading at a valuation that puts its share price at a lower price than it was in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541361-meta-platforms-could-be-most-undervalued-technology-company?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541361-meta-platforms-could-be-most-undervalued-technology-company?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1186067066","content_text":"SummaryMeta Platforms has declined by more than 50% in 2022, falling much further than the major indices.META is now trading at a valuation that puts its share price at a lower price than it was in parts of 2017.META is one of the best-positioned companies from a numbers standpoint, with tens of billions in FCF and a clean balance sheet.I believe that META is oversold and can be one of the largest recovery stories in 2023.I do much more than just articles at Barbell Capital: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.Despite increasing its revenue by $78.76 billion (193.73%), gross profit by $60.9 billion (173%), cash from operations by $34.25 billion (141.44%), Free Cash Flow (FCF) by $18.35 billion (104.94%), and net income by $17.72 billion (111.32%) over the prior 5 fiscal years, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is trading well below the $176.46 per share it closed 2017 with. Over the past year, META has declined by -59.88%, and YTD has fallen well below the major idiocies, declining -55.71%. I am asking myself if META is a broken company or a broken stock? I believe META is a quintessential example of a mispriced stock in the market. There are countless aspects that impact a company's stock price, but looking past perceptions and opinions, the numbers indicate that META is inaccurately valued. Unless financial fraud is occurring, the numbers disclosed on 10Q and 10K reports cannot be manipulated. $1 of revenue and $1 of profit is still $1 of revenue and $1 of profit regardless of which industry a company operates in. If a company's revenue grows from $100 to $150, it doesn't matter if it's a technology company or a pharmaceutical company; the growth rate is 50%. My feelings are that too many people are disregarding the Metaverse and using it as a narrative as to why META has lost its way, causing negative perception and uncertainty in its stock. At the end of the day, the numbers are the numbers, and META's shares should be trading at a minimum of 80% higher.Seeking AlphaThe numbers are the numbers, and META is not being valued on what they are accomplishingThe mentality of buying companies that make things and produce consumer staples during inflationary times needs to be replaced with investing in great companies with solid balance sheets that produce large amounts of profits. Unfortunately, out of all the valuation metrics, there isn't one that is looked at the same way throughout different industries. My opinion is that it's a tie between META and Alphabet (GOOGL) as to which company has the strongest balance sheet in the entire market. Some would say GOOGL as it has more assets, cash, and equity, but there are many similarities between the two. META has $0 in long-term debt, and its cash position of $40.49 billion is 92% of its total liabilities, which includes capital leases. META isn't a profitless tech company, yet its shares have plummeted more than -50% in 2022.It is astonishing how investors can justify paying double the Price to Free Cash Flow (FCF) multiple for The Coca-Cola Company (KO) than META, when META produces more than double the amount of FCF, and profits. The Price to FCF metric is a longtime favorite of mine that has recently become popular as FCF has become important again. FCF is often looked at as one of the best measures of profitability as FCF excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. To some investors, FCF is more important to analyze than net income because it's harder to manipulate as it is a true indication of the company's cash. FCF is also the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business. With every investment, you're paying the current value for a company's present and future cash flow. More commentators on financial networks have discussed the importance of generating FCF in the past 6 months than in the past 3 years.I will go through META's financials, but to show how undervalued its shares are, I will compare META to 10 other companies. I am selecting companies from big tech and consumer staples to show the level of FCF produced in different industries and the price to FCF multiple for each company. This comparison will show that the methodology of investing in companies that produce things should be updated to investing in companies that produce strong cash flow, regardless of the industry they operate in. The companies I will compare META to are:Apple (AAPL)Microsoft (MSFT)Amazon (AMZN)Alphabet (GOOGL)Tesla (TSLA)Procter & Gamble (PG)The Coca-Cola Company (KO)Kimberly-Clark (KMB)McDonald's (MCD)PepsiCo (PEP)In addition to adding the disclosure at the end, I want to be clear prior to the analysis that I am a shareholder of AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA, and KO. The numbers are the numbers and cannot be manipulated, and I am not cherry-picking information. I will be using the FCF over the TTM as the amount of FCF produced, not a projected Forward FCF number.Below is a table of the price to FCF multiple Mr. Market has placed on each of these companies at the close of business on 9/15.Seeking Alpha, Steven FiorilloFirst, I will start by comparing META to the consumer staples companies I selected. The average price to FCF across PEP, MCD, KO, PG, and KMB is 27.82x. These companies have an average market cap of $208.34 billion and generate an average of $7.59 billion of FCF. PG is the largest company in this group, with a market cap of $327.86 billion, generating $13.57 billion in FCF, with a price to FCF multiple of 24.17x. KMB has the lowest FCF multiple of 22.65x and generated $1.8 billion of FCF in the TTM.Seeking Alpha, Steven FiorilloWhen I compare META to these companies, META's share price has fallen off a cliff while these consumer staples have a range of appreciating by 0.39% to declining by -15.63%. They have been safer investments, providing better downside risk mitigation while paying quarterly dividends to shareholders.Here is where valuations get interesting. KMB has a market cap of $40.99 billion, generated $1.81 billion of FCF, and trades at a price to FCF multiple of 22.65x. META's market cap is 9.8x larger than KMB, yet it produces 19.8x the amount of FCF than KMB. You can purchase shares of META for a price to FCF multiple of 11.22x, which is slightly less than half the multiple Mr. Market has given KMB at 22.65x. The valuations do not make sense. If you were buying an entire company, would you rather purchase KMB for $40.99 billion when it generates $1.81 billion of FCF or META for $401.92 billion when it generates $35.83 billion in FCF? I would rather buy META at 9.8x the price tag to generate 19.8x more FCF, especially since I am paying a multiple of 11.22x for its FCF.If I look at PG instead, PG has a similar market cap to META at $327.86 billion and produces $13.57 billion of FCF. PG is currently trading at a price to FCF multiple of 24.17x. This valuation also doesn't make sense as META is priced at a price-to-FCF ratio that is 53.58% less than PG's. META's market cap is only 22.59% larger than PG's, yet it generates 264.1% more FCF than PG. For an additional $74.06 billion (22.59% larger), you could buy the entire company of META and generate an additional $22.26 billion of annual FCF.Looking at the most expensive staple, PEP, the valuations become even more unrealistic. PEP has generated $6.34 billion of FCF in the TTM and trades at a price to FCF multiple of 36.12x. FB has a market cap that's 75.57% larger than PEP, yet it produces 565.32% more FCF than PEP. The market has placed a multiple of more than 3x PEP's FCF on its price compared to how META trades.These examples are to illustrate how the market values different types of companies. At the end of the day, the numbers and the numbers, and $1 of FCF is $1 of FCF, it doesn't matter if you're selling Tide laundry detergent, a can of Pepsi, or ads on Facebook. META generates tens of billions more in FCF than these consumer staples and trades at a fraction of the valuation, which in my opinion, is an indication that META is grossly misvalued in the market.Seeking Alpha, Steven FiorilloI wanted to compare META to consumer staple companies first because media commentators have been discussing allocating capital toward defensive companies, which has traditionally meant consumer staples. I believe cash is king and the combination of companies with growing revenues, large profits, large FCF, and clean balance sheets is where capital should be allocated to regardless of the economic environment.When I look at META compared to the other large tech companies, META once again looks undervalued. The goal in business is to generate a profit, and AMZN has been operating at a negative FCF and low-profit margin in the TTM, yet its market cap vastly overshadows META's. In the TTM,AMZNhas generated $11.61 billion in net income compared to META's $33.63 billion of net income, yet its market cap is more than 3x the size. AMZN has also generated $35.57 billion of cash from operations in the TTM, placing its FCF at -$29.78 billion as they have allocated $65.36 billion toward CapEx. AMZN has a profit margin of 2.39% compared to META's 28.16%. Looking at AMZN's negative FCF, and low-profit margin, it's hard to justify META's 11.22x price to FCF.The market has loved TSLA, and its market cap is on the verge of surpassing $1 trillion. Currently, TSLA has produced $6.94 billion in FCF and trades at a price to FCF multiple of 137.21x. Many investors would say you need to look at TSLA's growth, so I did. Since the close of 2018, TSLA has grown its revenue by $45.71 billion (212.97%) while META has grown its revenue by $63.57 billion (113.85%). While TSLA's growth rate is larger, META has grown its revenue by a significantly larger amount in the same period. Looking at net income, TSLA has grown its net income by $10.5 billion to $9.52 billion since the close of 2018, while META has grown its net income by $11.52 billion to $33.63 billion in the same period. When I look at the growth of TSLA, it's impressive, and TSLA is doing so many things well, but the valuation is broken. TSLA trading at 137.21x its FCF compared to META at 11.22x is, in my opinion, an indication that META is undervalued. Would you rather buy a company for $951.79 billion that produces $6.94 billion in FCF, or a company for $401.92 billion, producing $35.83 billion of FCF?Even if the Metaverse is a flop, META is paying for its development in cash, isn't taking on debt, and shouldn't be penalized because others can't understand Zuckerberg's visionOne of the reasons I believe META has been discarded is that many investors don't agree with META's play on the Metaverse. Whether the Metaverse will work or become mainstream is a debate that can't be won at this point in time, and we will need to wait and see how the story unfolds. The aspect that can be discussed is how the Metaverse is impacting META's numbers and whether it is a liability.As I indicated earlier, META has one of the cleanest balance sheets you will ever read. Debt is not in META's vocabulary, as long-term debt will not be found on its balance sheet. META has a cash-to-total liability ratio of 0.92x and can pay off almost every liability tomorrow with a check. Debating if the Metaverse will work is a moot point because, in the end, it doesn't matter. META isn't taking on debt to fund this project, so if it doesn't work, it will be chalked up as an expensive failed experiment, but if it is successful, the Metaverse could become a tremendous revenue generator and profit center. While billions in capital are being spent on the Metaverse, META has also been buying back shares. Over the previous 4 years, META has repurchased 5.37% of its outstanding shares, which amounts to 166.5 million shares.Looking forward, META is expected to continue to grow in 2023. In the TTM META has generated $119.41 billion of revenue and produced $12.22 in EPS. The consensus estimates are that META will generate $118.16 billion of revenue in 2022 and $131.1 billion in 2023, and on the high side, those numbers could be $128.54 billion in 2022 and $154.65 billion in 2023.META and GOOGL have a duopoly on advertising, and regardless of what AMZN, AAPL, or Netflix (NFLX) plans to incorporate into their platforms, it's hard to run a business without a website, Instagram page, or a Facebook page. If META maintains its profit margin of 28.16%, it could generate $33.28 billion of net income in 2022 based on the analyst consensus and $36.92 billion in 2023. If META exceeds expectations, it could generate over $35 billion of profit in 2022 and $40 billion in 2023. META is being priced as if a fire sale is occurring, and I believe it's due to public perception, not the numbers.ConclusionThe markets may continue to be extremely volatile going into the next Fed meeting, and there is no telling how the markets will react if we receive a 75 basis point increase. META is trading where it did in 2017, yet it's improved in every financial metric and printed tens of billions in profits and FCF annually. While there are no signals that the pain is over, I am continuing to purchase META on the way down. META's current valuation and financials indicate that this is a broken stock, not a broken company. From a numbers standpoint, META looks to be the best buy in big tech and possibly one of the best buys in the market if you have a long-term perspective.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934537663,"gmtCreate":1663282644152,"gmtModify":1676537241066,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934537663","repostId":"1105919895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105919895","pubTimestamp":1663255268,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105919895?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-15 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105919895","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Nio(NIO)$ stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk i","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a> stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.</li><li>Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.</li><li>Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.</li></ul><p>Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.</p><p>Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.</p><p>The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.</p><h3>Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-Earnings</h3><p>Nio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.</p><p>Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.</p><p>This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.</p><p>Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.</p><h3>How Its Latest Uptick Could Reverse</h3><p>As buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.</p><p>For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.</p><p>In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.</p><p>With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.</p><p>In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.</p><h3>The Verdict on NIO Stock</h3><p>Nio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.</p><p>But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.</p><p>Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.</p><p>Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105919895","content_text":"Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-EarningsNio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.How Its Latest Uptick Could ReverseAs buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.The Verdict on NIO StockNio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934304763,"gmtCreate":1663195931352,"gmtModify":1676537222333,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934304763","repostId":"1137608568","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137608568","pubTimestamp":1663168187,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137608568?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-14 23:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Leveraged ETFs Added to Stock Chaos With $15.5 Billion Selling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137608568","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Nomura’s McElligott says fund rebalancing compounded selloffResearch shows these complex products am","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Nomura’s McElligott says fund rebalancing compounded selloff</li><li>Research shows these complex products amplify intraday moves</li></ul><p>In Tuesday’stumultuous trading sessionwas a pattern market watchers have seen time and again this year: A bad day for stocks gets worse, right around the close. Suspicion is growing that a breed of complex but increasingly popular ETF may be helping fuel the trend.</p><p>With the main equity gauges all down heavily on the day, leveraged exchange-traded funds -- which use options to amplify returns, usually of major indexes -- added around $15.5 billion of selling pressure to the rout, according to estimates from Nomura Holdings Inc. It’s likely a big reason why stocks took another dip in the last 30 minutes to close out a particular brutal trading session.</p><p>While the propensity of options to lash the very stocks on which they’re based has becomea fact of lifeon Wall Street, doubts have remained about the capacity of leveraged vehicles to do the same.</p><p>Yet trading volumes across these complex products have beenhistorically highall year. Certain peaks, such as in May and June, corresponded with instances of stocks extending their moves near the end of the session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9912df98158d8ef4b9f24a873eab26cb\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“It’s absolutely real,” said Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura, referring to the ability of leveraged ETFs to spur broader moves across the equity ecosystem thanks to their rebalancing moves. He puts the boom in such products down to retail investors looking for big wins.</p><p>“Day traders remain drunk on high intraday vol and continue to actively seek-out large price swings,” he said by email.</p><p>Read more:Wall Street’s Risky ‘Razor Blade’ Trade Is Making a Comeback</p><p>Leveraged products aim to amplify the performance of an underlying index or fund on a daily basis, meaning every day they must rebalance to return to their target leverage -- usually two- or three-times the underlying.</p><p>That means in the last 30 minutes of trading every day, this cohort will add to buying pressure if the market is up, and to selling pressure if it’s down. Research publishedearlier this yearfound that, alongside options hedging, leveraged ETFs exert an “economically large” price pressure late in the day.</p><p>The selling pressure at the close Tuesday was real, albeit far from dramatic relative to late-session swings seen earlier this year. The S&amp;P 500 was about 4% lower with 30 minutes still to go. It ended 4.3% down. The Nasdaq 100 Index closed 5.5% having been down 5.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a 3.7% drop to a 3.9% decline.</p><p>Of course, there are plenty of reasons equity gyrations are extending late in the day with increased frequency. Endless inflation, surging bond yields and depleted liquidity are all spurring big momentum trends as well as intraday rallies and reversals across assets in this wild year. In this context, leveraged funds are just another factor for traders to consider.</p><p>Yet systematic risks linked to the cohort prompted both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authorityto announcepotential new rules for the products in the past year.</p><p>Peter Tchir at Academy Securities is among those to note the uptick in leveraged ETF activity this year. In May he wrote that while such products are less powerful than in prior market dramas, they’re big enough to create “a limit down day” if they suffer outflows and rebalancing that accelerates broader selling.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Leveraged ETFs Added to Stock Chaos With $15.5 Billion Selling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLeveraged ETFs Added to Stock Chaos With $15.5 Billion Selling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-14 23:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/leveraged-etfs-added-to-stock-chaos-with-15-5-billion-selling><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nomura’s McElligott says fund rebalancing compounded selloffResearch shows these complex products amplify intraday movesIn Tuesday’stumultuous trading sessionwas a pattern market watchers have seen ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/leveraged-etfs-added-to-stock-chaos-with-15-5-billion-selling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/leveraged-etfs-added-to-stock-chaos-with-15-5-billion-selling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137608568","content_text":"Nomura’s McElligott says fund rebalancing compounded selloffResearch shows these complex products amplify intraday movesIn Tuesday’stumultuous trading sessionwas a pattern market watchers have seen time and again this year: A bad day for stocks gets worse, right around the close. Suspicion is growing that a breed of complex but increasingly popular ETF may be helping fuel the trend.With the main equity gauges all down heavily on the day, leveraged exchange-traded funds -- which use options to amplify returns, usually of major indexes -- added around $15.5 billion of selling pressure to the rout, according to estimates from Nomura Holdings Inc. It’s likely a big reason why stocks took another dip in the last 30 minutes to close out a particular brutal trading session.While the propensity of options to lash the very stocks on which they’re based has becomea fact of lifeon Wall Street, doubts have remained about the capacity of leveraged vehicles to do the same.Yet trading volumes across these complex products have beenhistorically highall year. Certain peaks, such as in May and June, corresponded with instances of stocks extending their moves near the end of the session.“It’s absolutely real,” said Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura, referring to the ability of leveraged ETFs to spur broader moves across the equity ecosystem thanks to their rebalancing moves. He puts the boom in such products down to retail investors looking for big wins.“Day traders remain drunk on high intraday vol and continue to actively seek-out large price swings,” he said by email.Read more:Wall Street’s Risky ‘Razor Blade’ Trade Is Making a ComebackLeveraged products aim to amplify the performance of an underlying index or fund on a daily basis, meaning every day they must rebalance to return to their target leverage -- usually two- or three-times the underlying.That means in the last 30 minutes of trading every day, this cohort will add to buying pressure if the market is up, and to selling pressure if it’s down. Research publishedearlier this yearfound that, alongside options hedging, leveraged ETFs exert an “economically large” price pressure late in the day.The selling pressure at the close Tuesday was real, albeit far from dramatic relative to late-session swings seen earlier this year. The S&P 500 was about 4% lower with 30 minutes still to go. It ended 4.3% down. The Nasdaq 100 Index closed 5.5% having been down 5.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a 3.7% drop to a 3.9% decline.Of course, there are plenty of reasons equity gyrations are extending late in the day with increased frequency. Endless inflation, surging bond yields and depleted liquidity are all spurring big momentum trends as well as intraday rallies and reversals across assets in this wild year. In this context, leveraged funds are just another factor for traders to consider.Yet systematic risks linked to the cohort prompted both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authorityto announcepotential new rules for the products in the past year.Peter Tchir at Academy Securities is among those to note the uptick in leveraged ETF activity this year. In May he wrote that while such products are less powerful than in prior market dramas, they’re big enough to create “a limit down day” if they suffer outflows and rebalancing that accelerates broader selling.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935262654,"gmtCreate":1663109837179,"gmtModify":1676537202837,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935262654","repostId":"1132085913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935055589,"gmtCreate":1663023310441,"gmtModify":1676537182132,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935055589","repostId":"2266804526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266804526","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662983039,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2266804526?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-12 19:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden Finalized His Plan to Rein in Big Tech. Big Tech Wasn't Invited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266804526","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"President Joe Biden's administration issued a checklist of actions needed to reign in Big Tech on Th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>President Joe Biden&#39;s administration issued a checklist of actions needed to reign in Big Tech on Thursday, after a roundtable &#34;listening session&#34; on issues within the technology industry.</p><p>But administration officials were not &#34;listening&#34; to the companies that are the targets of many of the desired actions -- Google parent Alphabet Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a>(GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, Apple Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>and Facebook parent company <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META.UK\">$(META.UK)$</a> The only representatives of the tech industry in attendance were the chief executives of Mozilla Corp. and Sonos Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONO\">$(SONO)$</a></p><p>&#34;The rise of tech platforms has introduced new and difficult challenges, from the tragic acts of violence linked to toxic online cultures, to deteriorating mental health and well-being, to basic rights of Americans and communities worldwide suffering from the rise of tech platforms big and small,&#34; the White House said in a statement after convening 16 experts -- most of them administration employees -- to discuss technology.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGLS\">None</a> of the Big Tech companies replied to request for comment on the listening session, but people familiar with the thinking at two of the companies weren&#39;t entirely surprised. They noted increased actions by the administration to hold social-media companies and purveyors of large digital platforms more accountable with the chances of a Senate vote seemingly dwindling by the hour.</p><p>Industry analysts, however, expressed disappointment at an exclusive, private meeting that recommended punitive actions against the industry&#39;s biggest players without offering a seat at the table. The most controversial reform mentioned on the administration&#39;s list called for &#34;the removal of special protections for large tech platforms,&#34; including changing Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The section generally provides website platforms immunity from third-party content.</p><p>&#34;Section 230 provides critical protections for platforms of all sizes to moderate content and take down harmful posts, and our research confirms these protections are most important for smaller sites,&#34; Chamber of Progress CEO Adam Kovacevich said. The trade group is funded by Amazon, Meta, Google, Apple, Twitter Inc. (TWTR), Uber Technologies Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$(UBER)$</a> and others.</p><p>Six broad goals listed by the White House mirror legislation slowly wending its way through Congress, the latest indication of a growing crackdown by the White House on high tech&#39;s influence while legislation wallows in the Senate and House. The Justice Department is expected to file antitrust lawsuits against Google for its online-ad business and Apple for its dominant App Store in coming weeks, according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, Politico and elsewhere.</p><p>Social media platforms -- in particular, Meta, Twitter, TikTok and YouTube -- have been identified as the scourge of politicians who are playing to popular sentiment for reining in digital-data collectors such as Meta and Amazon. Those two companies are prime targets of the Federal Trade Commission.</p><p>Congressional inaction was reflected earlier this week when a flustered Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Minnesota Democrat who is author of a bill to tamp down the power of powerful digital platform landlords like Apple and Facebook, claimed an &#34;incredible onslaught of money&#34; has been an obstacle to passing the legislation.</p><p>&#34;What has slowed us down is the incredible onslaught of money, and that&#39;s what happens with monopolies,&#34; Klobuchar, author of the American Innovation and Choice Online Act, said Tuesday at the Code Conference in Los Angeles. &#34;The senators are talking about it, about the ads running in each state.&#34;</p><p>Organizations funded by the technology industry have plowed more than $200 million on political ads and other lobbying efforts since the beginning of 2021, according to ad-tracking service AdImpact and others.</p><p>Klobuchar, who has written a book on antitrust reform and chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee&#39;s hearings on anticompetitive business practices for more than a year, has furiously pushed for a full Senate vote on her landmark bill as time melts with each passing day in the current legislative session. [The White House said Thursday it was encouraged to see bipartisan interest in Congress to adopt antitrust legislation to address the power of major U.S. tech companies.]</p><p>But absent any of the major principal companies in attendance, reporters pressed White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierreon the participation of Mozilla CEO Mitchell Baker and Sonos CEO Patrick Spence to represent the views of the tech industry.</p><p>Sonos and Google are locked in a series of lawsuits against one another over speaker technology since 2020. Sonos called two suits filed last month by Google an &#34;intimidation tactic&#34; intended to &#34;retaliate against Sonos for speaking out against Google&#39;s monopolistic practices&#34; of royalty payments.</p><p>Nonprofit Mozilla, whose Firefox web browser competes with the likes of Google, has repeatedly clashed with Big Tech. On Friday, the company&#39;s chief security officer, Marshall Erwin, urged federal regulators to crack down on internet giants and browser makers that don&#39;t protect users&#39; privacy.</p><p>&#34;Privacy online is a mess, consumers are stuck in this vicious cycle in which their data is collected, often without their understanding, and then used to manipulate them,&#34; Erwin said during an FTC forum on commercial surveillance and data security.</p><p>&#34;The way that we see the roundtable today, it is, again, the largest roundtable that we have seen from this administration to deal with tech,&#34; Jean-Pierresaid. &#34;What you should take out from today, or take away from today, is that, you know, the president&#39;s going to and has long called for fundamental legislative reforms to address real issues. And so we&#39;re going to continue to do that.&#34;</p><p>The elusive reply came a day before Biden met in Ohio with Intel Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$(INTC)$</a> CEO Pat Gelsinger at a groundbreaking ceremony for Intel&#39;s new $20 billion semiconductor manufacturing facility weeks after Congress passed the $280 billion Chips and Science Act in July.</p><p>&#34;The future of the chip industry is going to be made in America,&#34; Biden said at the event, a White House pre-midterms push to tout new funding for manufacturing and infrastructure. &#34;The industrial <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDWT\">Midwest</a> is back.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden Finalized His Plan to Rein in Big Tech. Big Tech Wasn't Invited</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden Finalized His Plan to Rein in Big Tech. Big Tech Wasn't Invited\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-12 19:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>President Joe Biden&#39;s administration issued a checklist of actions needed to reign in Big Tech on Thursday, after a roundtable &#34;listening session&#34; on issues within the technology industry.</p><p>But administration officials were not &#34;listening&#34; to the companies that are the targets of many of the desired actions -- Google parent Alphabet Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a>(GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, Apple Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>and Facebook parent company <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META.UK\">$(META.UK)$</a> The only representatives of the tech industry in attendance were the chief executives of Mozilla Corp. and Sonos Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONO\">$(SONO)$</a></p><p>&#34;The rise of tech platforms has introduced new and difficult challenges, from the tragic acts of violence linked to toxic online cultures, to deteriorating mental health and well-being, to basic rights of Americans and communities worldwide suffering from the rise of tech platforms big and small,&#34; the White House said in a statement after convening 16 experts -- most of them administration employees -- to discuss technology.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGLS\">None</a> of the Big Tech companies replied to request for comment on the listening session, but people familiar with the thinking at two of the companies weren&#39;t entirely surprised. They noted increased actions by the administration to hold social-media companies and purveyors of large digital platforms more accountable with the chances of a Senate vote seemingly dwindling by the hour.</p><p>Industry analysts, however, expressed disappointment at an exclusive, private meeting that recommended punitive actions against the industry&#39;s biggest players without offering a seat at the table. The most controversial reform mentioned on the administration&#39;s list called for &#34;the removal of special protections for large tech platforms,&#34; including changing Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The section generally provides website platforms immunity from third-party content.</p><p>&#34;Section 230 provides critical protections for platforms of all sizes to moderate content and take down harmful posts, and our research confirms these protections are most important for smaller sites,&#34; Chamber of Progress CEO Adam Kovacevich said. The trade group is funded by Amazon, Meta, Google, Apple, Twitter Inc. (TWTR), Uber Technologies Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$(UBER)$</a> and others.</p><p>Six broad goals listed by the White House mirror legislation slowly wending its way through Congress, the latest indication of a growing crackdown by the White House on high tech&#39;s influence while legislation wallows in the Senate and House. The Justice Department is expected to file antitrust lawsuits against Google for its online-ad business and Apple for its dominant App Store in coming weeks, according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, Politico and elsewhere.</p><p>Social media platforms -- in particular, Meta, Twitter, TikTok and YouTube -- have been identified as the scourge of politicians who are playing to popular sentiment for reining in digital-data collectors such as Meta and Amazon. Those two companies are prime targets of the Federal Trade Commission.</p><p>Congressional inaction was reflected earlier this week when a flustered Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Minnesota Democrat who is author of a bill to tamp down the power of powerful digital platform landlords like Apple and Facebook, claimed an &#34;incredible onslaught of money&#34; has been an obstacle to passing the legislation.</p><p>&#34;What has slowed us down is the incredible onslaught of money, and that&#39;s what happens with monopolies,&#34; Klobuchar, author of the American Innovation and Choice Online Act, said Tuesday at the Code Conference in Los Angeles. &#34;The senators are talking about it, about the ads running in each state.&#34;</p><p>Organizations funded by the technology industry have plowed more than $200 million on political ads and other lobbying efforts since the beginning of 2021, according to ad-tracking service AdImpact and others.</p><p>Klobuchar, who has written a book on antitrust reform and chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee&#39;s hearings on anticompetitive business practices for more than a year, has furiously pushed for a full Senate vote on her landmark bill as time melts with each passing day in the current legislative session. [The White House said Thursday it was encouraged to see bipartisan interest in Congress to adopt antitrust legislation to address the power of major U.S. tech companies.]</p><p>But absent any of the major principal companies in attendance, reporters pressed White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierreon the participation of Mozilla CEO Mitchell Baker and Sonos CEO Patrick Spence to represent the views of the tech industry.</p><p>Sonos and Google are locked in a series of lawsuits against one another over speaker technology since 2020. Sonos called two suits filed last month by Google an &#34;intimidation tactic&#34; intended to &#34;retaliate against Sonos for speaking out against Google&#39;s monopolistic practices&#34; of royalty payments.</p><p>Nonprofit Mozilla, whose Firefox web browser competes with the likes of Google, has repeatedly clashed with Big Tech. On Friday, the company&#39;s chief security officer, Marshall Erwin, urged federal regulators to crack down on internet giants and browser makers that don&#39;t protect users&#39; privacy.</p><p>&#34;Privacy online is a mess, consumers are stuck in this vicious cycle in which their data is collected, often without their understanding, and then used to manipulate them,&#34; Erwin said during an FTC forum on commercial surveillance and data security.</p><p>&#34;The way that we see the roundtable today, it is, again, the largest roundtable that we have seen from this administration to deal with tech,&#34; Jean-Pierresaid. &#34;What you should take out from today, or take away from today, is that, you know, the president&#39;s going to and has long called for fundamental legislative reforms to address real issues. And so we&#39;re going to continue to do that.&#34;</p><p>The elusive reply came a day before Biden met in Ohio with Intel Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$(INTC)$</a> CEO Pat Gelsinger at a groundbreaking ceremony for Intel&#39;s new $20 billion semiconductor manufacturing facility weeks after Congress passed the $280 billion Chips and Science Act in July.</p><p>&#34;The future of the chip industry is going to be made in America,&#34; Biden said at the event, a White House pre-midterms push to tout new funding for manufacturing and infrastructure. &#34;The industrial <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDWT\">Midwest</a> is back.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4191":"家用电器","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4536":"外卖概念","TWTR":"Twitter","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","SONO":"搜诺思公司","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4022":"陆运","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4078":"消费电子产品","BOLT":"Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.","UBER":"优步","INTC":"英特尔","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","AAPL":"苹果","BK4529":"IDC概念","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4539":"次新股","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266804526","content_text":"President Joe Biden's administration issued a checklist of actions needed to reign in Big Tech on Thursday, after a roundtable \"listening session\" on issues within the technology industry.But administration officials were not \"listening\" to the companies that are the targets of many of the desired actions -- Google parent Alphabet Inc. $(GOOGL)$(GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$, Apple Inc. $(AAPL)$and Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc. $(META.UK)$ The only representatives of the tech industry in attendance were the chief executives of Mozilla Corp. and Sonos Inc. $(SONO)$\"The rise of tech platforms has introduced new and difficult challenges, from the tragic acts of violence linked to toxic online cultures, to deteriorating mental health and well-being, to basic rights of Americans and communities worldwide suffering from the rise of tech platforms big and small,\" the White House said in a statement after convening 16 experts -- most of them administration employees -- to discuss technology.None of the Big Tech companies replied to request for comment on the listening session, but people familiar with the thinking at two of the companies weren't entirely surprised. They noted increased actions by the administration to hold social-media companies and purveyors of large digital platforms more accountable with the chances of a Senate vote seemingly dwindling by the hour.Industry analysts, however, expressed disappointment at an exclusive, private meeting that recommended punitive actions against the industry's biggest players without offering a seat at the table. The most controversial reform mentioned on the administration's list called for \"the removal of special protections for large tech platforms,\" including changing Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The section generally provides website platforms immunity from third-party content.\"Section 230 provides critical protections for platforms of all sizes to moderate content and take down harmful posts, and our research confirms these protections are most important for smaller sites,\" Chamber of Progress CEO Adam Kovacevich said. The trade group is funded by Amazon, Meta, Google, Apple, Twitter Inc. (TWTR), Uber Technologies Inc. $(UBER)$ and others.Six broad goals listed by the White House mirror legislation slowly wending its way through Congress, the latest indication of a growing crackdown by the White House on high tech's influence while legislation wallows in the Senate and House. The Justice Department is expected to file antitrust lawsuits against Google for its online-ad business and Apple for its dominant App Store in coming weeks, according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, Politico and elsewhere.Social media platforms -- in particular, Meta, Twitter, TikTok and YouTube -- have been identified as the scourge of politicians who are playing to popular sentiment for reining in digital-data collectors such as Meta and Amazon. Those two companies are prime targets of the Federal Trade Commission.Congressional inaction was reflected earlier this week when a flustered Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Minnesota Democrat who is author of a bill to tamp down the power of powerful digital platform landlords like Apple and Facebook, claimed an \"incredible onslaught of money\" has been an obstacle to passing the legislation.\"What has slowed us down is the incredible onslaught of money, and that's what happens with monopolies,\" Klobuchar, author of the American Innovation and Choice Online Act, said Tuesday at the Code Conference in Los Angeles. \"The senators are talking about it, about the ads running in each state.\"Organizations funded by the technology industry have plowed more than $200 million on political ads and other lobbying efforts since the beginning of 2021, according to ad-tracking service AdImpact and others.Klobuchar, who has written a book on antitrust reform and chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee's hearings on anticompetitive business practices for more than a year, has furiously pushed for a full Senate vote on her landmark bill as time melts with each passing day in the current legislative session. [The White House said Thursday it was encouraged to see bipartisan interest in Congress to adopt antitrust legislation to address the power of major U.S. tech companies.]But absent any of the major principal companies in attendance, reporters pressed White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierreon the participation of Mozilla CEO Mitchell Baker and Sonos CEO Patrick Spence to represent the views of the tech industry.Sonos and Google are locked in a series of lawsuits against one another over speaker technology since 2020. Sonos called two suits filed last month by Google an \"intimidation tactic\" intended to \"retaliate against Sonos for speaking out against Google's monopolistic practices\" of royalty payments.Nonprofit Mozilla, whose Firefox web browser competes with the likes of Google, has repeatedly clashed with Big Tech. On Friday, the company's chief security officer, Marshall Erwin, urged federal regulators to crack down on internet giants and browser makers that don't protect users' privacy.\"Privacy online is a mess, consumers are stuck in this vicious cycle in which their data is collected, often without their understanding, and then used to manipulate them,\" Erwin said during an FTC forum on commercial surveillance and data security.\"The way that we see the roundtable today, it is, again, the largest roundtable that we have seen from this administration to deal with tech,\" Jean-Pierresaid. \"What you should take out from today, or take away from today, is that, you know, the president's going to and has long called for fundamental legislative reforms to address real issues. And so we're going to continue to do that.\"The elusive reply came a day before Biden met in Ohio with Intel Corp. $(INTC)$ CEO Pat Gelsinger at a groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's new $20 billion semiconductor manufacturing facility weeks after Congress passed the $280 billion Chips and Science Act in July.\"The future of the chip industry is going to be made in America,\" Biden said at the event, a White House pre-midterms push to tout new funding for manufacturing and infrastructure. \"The industrial Midwest is back.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932601099,"gmtCreate":1662937143911,"gmtModify":1676537164171,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932601099","repostId":"2266817381","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266817381","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662861434,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2266817381?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-11 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266817381","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb2e717152d9e61504d0803ac3654\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.</p><p>Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&amp;P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.</p><p>It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.</p><p>Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61847881fba325e1dc5c7ed3280e29db\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.</p><p>But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”</p><p>Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.</p><p>Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.</p><p>Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.</p><p>“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”</p><p>A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf58d7d767a23cfb352e019504bafa44\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERS</span></p><p>Ms. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.</p><p>After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.</p><p>She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.</p><p>Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cf5cd81991220ec1f42821cee2554b\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</span></p><p>But she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.</p><p>Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.</p><p>By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.</p><p>As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9090db9eab1ac4c91bd5b1b441d26206\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Every day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.</p><p>Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&amp;P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.</p><p>Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.</p><p>Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.</p><p>Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.</p><p>After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.</p><p>Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.</p><p>Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2c050a88b00dd9846de958b65be1b\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERS</span></p><p>As the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.</p><p>Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.</p><p>In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental&#39;s long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company&#39;s goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.</p><p>Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in &#34;carbon management.&#34; It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.</p><p>Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.</p><p>The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ.</p><p>The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.</p><p>As Occidental&#39;s stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor&#39;s two representatives on Occidental&#39;s board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p>As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett&#39;s investment could be ill-timed. &#34;I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3,&#34; he said. &#34;I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard,&#34; he said.</p><p>Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.</p><p>Mr. Icahn&#39;s retort: &#34;She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-11 09:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb2e717152d9e61504d0803ac3654\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.</p><p>Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&amp;P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.</p><p>It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.</p><p>Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61847881fba325e1dc5c7ed3280e29db\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.</p><p>But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”</p><p>Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.</p><p>Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.</p><p>Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.</p><p>“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”</p><p>A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf58d7d767a23cfb352e019504bafa44\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERS</span></p><p>Ms. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.</p><p>After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.</p><p>She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.</p><p>Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cf5cd81991220ec1f42821cee2554b\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</span></p><p>But she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.</p><p>Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.</p><p>By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.</p><p>As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9090db9eab1ac4c91bd5b1b441d26206\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Every day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.</p><p>Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&amp;P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.</p><p>Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.</p><p>Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.</p><p>Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.</p><p>After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.</p><p>Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.</p><p>Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2c050a88b00dd9846de958b65be1b\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERS</span></p><p>As the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.</p><p>Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.</p><p>In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental&#39;s long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company&#39;s goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.</p><p>Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in &#34;carbon management.&#34; It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.</p><p>Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.</p><p>The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ.</p><p>The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.</p><p>As Occidental&#39;s stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor&#39;s two representatives on Occidental&#39;s board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p>As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett&#39;s investment could be ill-timed. &#34;I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3,&#34; he said. &#34;I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard,&#34; he said.</p><p>Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.</p><p>Mr. Icahn&#39;s retort: &#34;She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266817381","content_text":"Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERSMs. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNALBut she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESEvery day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERSAs the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental's long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company's goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in \"carbon management.\" It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&P Capital IQ.The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.As Occidental's stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor's two representatives on Occidental's board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett's investment could be ill-timed. \"I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3,\" he said. \"I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard,\" he said.Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.Mr. Icahn's retort: \"She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936747035,"gmtCreate":1662850763327,"gmtModify":1676537148519,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936747035","repostId":"2266415879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266415879","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662773640,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2266415879?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-10 09:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"She Was the Best of Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266415879","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"ByAndrew RobertsMr. Roberts is the author, most recently, of \"The Last King of America: The Misunder","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb38370e84ba1fea7d758c98f97d645\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><i>ByAndrew Roberts</i></p><p><i>Mr. Roberts is the author, most recently, of &#34;The Last King of America: The Misunderstood Reign of George III&#34; and a royal commentator for NBC News.</i></p><p>We British like to believe that we have the virtues of duty, decency, good humor and tolerance as part of our national DNA. There might be some self-delusion in this, and it is certainly not always true, but it is a strong part of our self-defining myth as a people. Of one Briton, however, it genuinely was true, and for 70 years we have known that because of her virtues we would always be proud of her wherever she went -- and thus proud of our country too. She was a fine lifelong role model for millions in Britain, the Commonwealth and around the world.</p><p>The complete certainty that -- whatever the rest of her family might say or do -- Her Majesty The Queen would never embarrass us on the world stage, but would always perform her duties with the utmost professionalism and unflappable calm, made her the soft-power equivalent of an aircraft carrier when it came to international relations. However much our other national institutions might let us down, we always knew that The Queen would never put a step out of place or say a single word that would make us cringe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96243ab593f31f43979c5b0356e3e1f3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Queen Elizabeth II and her husband Prince Philip in Buckingham Palace, December 1958. They were married for 73 years before his death in 2021.</span></p><p>In the full glare of the global media for seven decades, meeting hundreds of thousands of people one-on-one and untold millions in public events, traveling to over a hundred countries of the world, dealing with delicate diplomatic incidents that today are history but at the time could have produced strife, advising 15 prime ministers from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, she knew just what to do. It seems almost superhuman; it was certainly the absolute acme of professionalism. Would to God that more of our leaders in public life had a fraction of her grace, her gravitas and, above all, her common sense.</p><p>The Queen had an uncanny knack for encapsulating in a phrase what the rest of us think but rarely quite put into words, or at least rarely have the opportunity to say to the right person at the right time. &#34;Why did no one see it coming?&#34; she asked Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, about the 2008 Great Crash. &#34;Why would anyone want the job?&#34; she asked Boris Johnson when he became prime minister during the Brexit maelstrom. Then there was the sixth sense she had for what her people were feeling. When they were hurting financially during the Great Crash, she canceled her birthday party at the Ritz. And of course there was her choice of the apposite phrase. &#34;Grief is the price we pay for love,&#34; she said in the aftermath of 9/11, encapsulating precisely what the West was feeling.</p><p>Remember those words as we watch the long line of mourning Britons and her subjects from 15 countries across the globe next week, stretching from her catafalque in Westminster Hall. I strongly suspect that it will go down the Thames all the way to the City of London financial district in the east of the capital, as they pay their respects at her lying-in-state. They will come from across the four kingdoms and from around the world; they will wait patiently in line for very many hours on end; they will doggedly put up with the rain and cold winds all night; they will josh with the coppers and stay cheerful; they will bring their children and grandchildren who will one day be able to tell their own children and grandchildren that they paid their last respects to Queen Elizabeth II, Elizabeth the Good.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c415ea69257bd5839a78c9d5e0eca6f1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Left to right: West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Queen Elizabeth II, President Ronald Reagan and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at Buckingham Palace during a summit for world leaders, June 1984.</span></p><p>Everyone would have perfectly understood if Her Majesty had decided to appoint Liz Truss as prime minister by a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> call. She had missed the Braemar Highland Games and had been suffering ill health, and a personal meeting wasn&#39;t strictly constitutionally necessary. As we now know -- and as she herself might well have suspected -- she only had two more days to live. But anyone who thought that she would put her personal comfort before what she saw as her duty doesn&#39;t understand the character of The Queen, the last of the Greatest Generation. When she was shot at six times as she rode down the Mall at the Trooping of the Colour in 1981, she didn&#39;t know the assailant was firing blanks, but she carried on the parade regardless. That is the kind of raw courage we took for granted from her.</p><p>Britain has undergone several extremely difficult moments over the past 70 years as it has been transformed in almost every conceivable way. The Suez Crisis, only four years into the Queen&#39;s reign, forced us to come to terms with the loss of the largest empire in world history over the course of only a decade or so, yet we never responded to the imperial humiliation in the way that France did in Algeria, let alone the way Putin is doing in Ukraine. The 1970s saw the serious danger of Britain slipping into the position of a third-rank power, and the tough-love medicine that Margaret Thatcher imposed to reverse that trajectory in the 1980s led to violent strikes and riots, yet not to worse. The issue of race hatred is thankfully largely behind Britons now, but we must never forget that it occasionally caused civil unrest. The refusal of much of the Establishment to accept the result of the Brexit referendum toxified British politics for half a decade. British history since 1952 hasn&#39;t been plain sailing.</p><p>Yet the knowledge that at the apex of our political system, our constitutional structure, our armed forces, our Commonwealth, our legal system and our national church stood a lady of irreproachable morals, who moreover confined her political involvement to advising, encouraging and warning but never to partisan politics, has exercised an inestimably positive influence on our public life. Liz Truss wasn&#39;t exaggerating when she perceptively said that the Queen was &#34;the rock upon which modern Britain was built.&#34;</p><p>Although she was a small &#34;c&#34; conservative in many aspects of life, as many nonagenarians naturally are, The Queen was always exemplary in the way that she never interfered in politics, and Sir Keir Starmer&#39;s public statement showed that the Labour Party admired her just as much as the large-c Conservatives. In a country that is being riven by extreme partisan politics at the moment, as Britons face a post-Covid future and inflationary spirals, admiration for her was one of the few things that united both frontbenches in parliament. Now even that has gone.</p><p>More than a century separated the births of The Queen&#39;s first prime minister, Winston Churchill, and her last, Liz Truss. Even more extraordinary, the 96 years of her life constitutes 39% of the existence of the United States as an independent country. Her love of the United States -- her only incognito holidays were taken in Kentucky -- was instrumental in keeping our most important alliance, the Special Relationship, as fresh as it is profound. We have only just begun to note the number of ways we are going to miss her, on both the international and the domestic stages.</p><p>A millennium-old monarchy is a book of many chapters. One unusually long and glorious chapter has closed, and a new one is now opening. If Britain today seems somewhat untethered, mournful of course but also apprehensive, it is because King Charles III has almost impossibly large boots to fill. Yet he has been waiting for 70 of his 73 years for the role to devolve upon him and is therefore supremely ready for it. There is something immensely spiritually right that a role such as this is assumed during a period of mourning. Politicians take power feeling like they have won the lottery; monarchs accede to thrones mournful at the death of their parent. Succession at a time of somber reflection rather than exultant triumph is part of the genius of constitutional monarchy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874414f0f61b424aaf7b94a980470613\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Queen Elizabeth II in the House of Lords for the opening of Parliament, May 2015. She continued to fulfill her duties until the end, appointing her 15th prime minister, Liz Truss, on Sept 6.</span></p><p>We as a nation made The Queen do things that we would never, ever, even consider doing ourselves. We expected her to do her job to the age of 96, when we retire at 65, and to keep doing it up to two days before her death. We expected her to invite bloodthirsty dictators to stay in her home, because British foreign policy interests required it. We expected her, aged 86, to stand on a boat in the Thames in the freezing rain during the diamond jubilee, waving for hour after hour. We expected her to shake the hand of a former IRA gunmen who approved the murder of her husband&#39;s uncle. We expected her to smile and charm and shake hands cordially, whatever she might privately have been feeling inside about her family&#39;s all-too-public traumas.</p><p>She did all of it, and in 70 years she never once complained. She was the best of us.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>She Was the Best of Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShe Was the Best of Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-10 09:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb38370e84ba1fea7d758c98f97d645\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><i>ByAndrew Roberts</i></p><p><i>Mr. Roberts is the author, most recently, of &#34;The Last King of America: The Misunderstood Reign of George III&#34; and a royal commentator for NBC News.</i></p><p>We British like to believe that we have the virtues of duty, decency, good humor and tolerance as part of our national DNA. There might be some self-delusion in this, and it is certainly not always true, but it is a strong part of our self-defining myth as a people. Of one Briton, however, it genuinely was true, and for 70 years we have known that because of her virtues we would always be proud of her wherever she went -- and thus proud of our country too. She was a fine lifelong role model for millions in Britain, the Commonwealth and around the world.</p><p>The complete certainty that -- whatever the rest of her family might say or do -- Her Majesty The Queen would never embarrass us on the world stage, but would always perform her duties with the utmost professionalism and unflappable calm, made her the soft-power equivalent of an aircraft carrier when it came to international relations. However much our other national institutions might let us down, we always knew that The Queen would never put a step out of place or say a single word that would make us cringe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96243ab593f31f43979c5b0356e3e1f3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Queen Elizabeth II and her husband Prince Philip in Buckingham Palace, December 1958. They were married for 73 years before his death in 2021.</span></p><p>In the full glare of the global media for seven decades, meeting hundreds of thousands of people one-on-one and untold millions in public events, traveling to over a hundred countries of the world, dealing with delicate diplomatic incidents that today are history but at the time could have produced strife, advising 15 prime ministers from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, she knew just what to do. It seems almost superhuman; it was certainly the absolute acme of professionalism. Would to God that more of our leaders in public life had a fraction of her grace, her gravitas and, above all, her common sense.</p><p>The Queen had an uncanny knack for encapsulating in a phrase what the rest of us think but rarely quite put into words, or at least rarely have the opportunity to say to the right person at the right time. &#34;Why did no one see it coming?&#34; she asked Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, about the 2008 Great Crash. &#34;Why would anyone want the job?&#34; she asked Boris Johnson when he became prime minister during the Brexit maelstrom. Then there was the sixth sense she had for what her people were feeling. When they were hurting financially during the Great Crash, she canceled her birthday party at the Ritz. And of course there was her choice of the apposite phrase. &#34;Grief is the price we pay for love,&#34; she said in the aftermath of 9/11, encapsulating precisely what the West was feeling.</p><p>Remember those words as we watch the long line of mourning Britons and her subjects from 15 countries across the globe next week, stretching from her catafalque in Westminster Hall. I strongly suspect that it will go down the Thames all the way to the City of London financial district in the east of the capital, as they pay their respects at her lying-in-state. They will come from across the four kingdoms and from around the world; they will wait patiently in line for very many hours on end; they will doggedly put up with the rain and cold winds all night; they will josh with the coppers and stay cheerful; they will bring their children and grandchildren who will one day be able to tell their own children and grandchildren that they paid their last respects to Queen Elizabeth II, Elizabeth the Good.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c415ea69257bd5839a78c9d5e0eca6f1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Left to right: West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Queen Elizabeth II, President Ronald Reagan and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at Buckingham Palace during a summit for world leaders, June 1984.</span></p><p>Everyone would have perfectly understood if Her Majesty had decided to appoint Liz Truss as prime minister by a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> call. She had missed the Braemar Highland Games and had been suffering ill health, and a personal meeting wasn&#39;t strictly constitutionally necessary. As we now know -- and as she herself might well have suspected -- she only had two more days to live. But anyone who thought that she would put her personal comfort before what she saw as her duty doesn&#39;t understand the character of The Queen, the last of the Greatest Generation. When she was shot at six times as she rode down the Mall at the Trooping of the Colour in 1981, she didn&#39;t know the assailant was firing blanks, but she carried on the parade regardless. That is the kind of raw courage we took for granted from her.</p><p>Britain has undergone several extremely difficult moments over the past 70 years as it has been transformed in almost every conceivable way. The Suez Crisis, only four years into the Queen&#39;s reign, forced us to come to terms with the loss of the largest empire in world history over the course of only a decade or so, yet we never responded to the imperial humiliation in the way that France did in Algeria, let alone the way Putin is doing in Ukraine. The 1970s saw the serious danger of Britain slipping into the position of a third-rank power, and the tough-love medicine that Margaret Thatcher imposed to reverse that trajectory in the 1980s led to violent strikes and riots, yet not to worse. The issue of race hatred is thankfully largely behind Britons now, but we must never forget that it occasionally caused civil unrest. The refusal of much of the Establishment to accept the result of the Brexit referendum toxified British politics for half a decade. British history since 1952 hasn&#39;t been plain sailing.</p><p>Yet the knowledge that at the apex of our political system, our constitutional structure, our armed forces, our Commonwealth, our legal system and our national church stood a lady of irreproachable morals, who moreover confined her political involvement to advising, encouraging and warning but never to partisan politics, has exercised an inestimably positive influence on our public life. Liz Truss wasn&#39;t exaggerating when she perceptively said that the Queen was &#34;the rock upon which modern Britain was built.&#34;</p><p>Although she was a small &#34;c&#34; conservative in many aspects of life, as many nonagenarians naturally are, The Queen was always exemplary in the way that she never interfered in politics, and Sir Keir Starmer&#39;s public statement showed that the Labour Party admired her just as much as the large-c Conservatives. In a country that is being riven by extreme partisan politics at the moment, as Britons face a post-Covid future and inflationary spirals, admiration for her was one of the few things that united both frontbenches in parliament. Now even that has gone.</p><p>More than a century separated the births of The Queen&#39;s first prime minister, Winston Churchill, and her last, Liz Truss. Even more extraordinary, the 96 years of her life constitutes 39% of the existence of the United States as an independent country. Her love of the United States -- her only incognito holidays were taken in Kentucky -- was instrumental in keeping our most important alliance, the Special Relationship, as fresh as it is profound. We have only just begun to note the number of ways we are going to miss her, on both the international and the domestic stages.</p><p>A millennium-old monarchy is a book of many chapters. One unusually long and glorious chapter has closed, and a new one is now opening. If Britain today seems somewhat untethered, mournful of course but also apprehensive, it is because King Charles III has almost impossibly large boots to fill. Yet he has been waiting for 70 of his 73 years for the role to devolve upon him and is therefore supremely ready for it. There is something immensely spiritually right that a role such as this is assumed during a period of mourning. Politicians take power feeling like they have won the lottery; monarchs accede to thrones mournful at the death of their parent. Succession at a time of somber reflection rather than exultant triumph is part of the genius of constitutional monarchy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874414f0f61b424aaf7b94a980470613\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Queen Elizabeth II in the House of Lords for the opening of Parliament, May 2015. She continued to fulfill her duties until the end, appointing her 15th prime minister, Liz Truss, on Sept 6.</span></p><p>We as a nation made The Queen do things that we would never, ever, even consider doing ourselves. We expected her to do her job to the age of 96, when we retire at 65, and to keep doing it up to two days before her death. We expected her to invite bloodthirsty dictators to stay in her home, because British foreign policy interests required it. We expected her, aged 86, to stand on a boat in the Thames in the freezing rain during the diamond jubilee, waving for hour after hour. We expected her to shake the hand of a former IRA gunmen who approved the murder of her husband&#39;s uncle. We expected her to smile and charm and shake hands cordially, whatever she might privately have been feeling inside about her family&#39;s all-too-public traumas.</p><p>She did all of it, and in 70 years she never once complained. She was the best of us.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266415879","content_text":"ByAndrew RobertsMr. Roberts is the author, most recently, of \"The Last King of America: The Misunderstood Reign of George III\" and a royal commentator for NBC News.We British like to believe that we have the virtues of duty, decency, good humor and tolerance as part of our national DNA. There might be some self-delusion in this, and it is certainly not always true, but it is a strong part of our self-defining myth as a people. Of one Briton, however, it genuinely was true, and for 70 years we have known that because of her virtues we would always be proud of her wherever she went -- and thus proud of our country too. She was a fine lifelong role model for millions in Britain, the Commonwealth and around the world.The complete certainty that -- whatever the rest of her family might say or do -- Her Majesty The Queen would never embarrass us on the world stage, but would always perform her duties with the utmost professionalism and unflappable calm, made her the soft-power equivalent of an aircraft carrier when it came to international relations. However much our other national institutions might let us down, we always knew that The Queen would never put a step out of place or say a single word that would make us cringe.Queen Elizabeth II and her husband Prince Philip in Buckingham Palace, December 1958. They were married for 73 years before his death in 2021.In the full glare of the global media for seven decades, meeting hundreds of thousands of people one-on-one and untold millions in public events, traveling to over a hundred countries of the world, dealing with delicate diplomatic incidents that today are history but at the time could have produced strife, advising 15 prime ministers from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, she knew just what to do. It seems almost superhuman; it was certainly the absolute acme of professionalism. Would to God that more of our leaders in public life had a fraction of her grace, her gravitas and, above all, her common sense.The Queen had an uncanny knack for encapsulating in a phrase what the rest of us think but rarely quite put into words, or at least rarely have the opportunity to say to the right person at the right time. \"Why did no one see it coming?\" she asked Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, about the 2008 Great Crash. \"Why would anyone want the job?\" she asked Boris Johnson when he became prime minister during the Brexit maelstrom. Then there was the sixth sense she had for what her people were feeling. When they were hurting financially during the Great Crash, she canceled her birthday party at the Ritz. And of course there was her choice of the apposite phrase. \"Grief is the price we pay for love,\" she said in the aftermath of 9/11, encapsulating precisely what the West was feeling.Remember those words as we watch the long line of mourning Britons and her subjects from 15 countries across the globe next week, stretching from her catafalque in Westminster Hall. I strongly suspect that it will go down the Thames all the way to the City of London financial district in the east of the capital, as they pay their respects at her lying-in-state. They will come from across the four kingdoms and from around the world; they will wait patiently in line for very many hours on end; they will doggedly put up with the rain and cold winds all night; they will josh with the coppers and stay cheerful; they will bring their children and grandchildren who will one day be able to tell their own children and grandchildren that they paid their last respects to Queen Elizabeth II, Elizabeth the Good.Left to right: West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Queen Elizabeth II, President Ronald Reagan and U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at Buckingham Palace during a summit for world leaders, June 1984.Everyone would have perfectly understood if Her Majesty had decided to appoint Liz Truss as prime minister by a Zoom call. She had missed the Braemar Highland Games and had been suffering ill health, and a personal meeting wasn't strictly constitutionally necessary. As we now know -- and as she herself might well have suspected -- she only had two more days to live. But anyone who thought that she would put her personal comfort before what she saw as her duty doesn't understand the character of The Queen, the last of the Greatest Generation. When she was shot at six times as she rode down the Mall at the Trooping of the Colour in 1981, she didn't know the assailant was firing blanks, but she carried on the parade regardless. That is the kind of raw courage we took for granted from her.Britain has undergone several extremely difficult moments over the past 70 years as it has been transformed in almost every conceivable way. The Suez Crisis, only four years into the Queen's reign, forced us to come to terms with the loss of the largest empire in world history over the course of only a decade or so, yet we never responded to the imperial humiliation in the way that France did in Algeria, let alone the way Putin is doing in Ukraine. The 1970s saw the serious danger of Britain slipping into the position of a third-rank power, and the tough-love medicine that Margaret Thatcher imposed to reverse that trajectory in the 1980s led to violent strikes and riots, yet not to worse. The issue of race hatred is thankfully largely behind Britons now, but we must never forget that it occasionally caused civil unrest. The refusal of much of the Establishment to accept the result of the Brexit referendum toxified British politics for half a decade. British history since 1952 hasn't been plain sailing.Yet the knowledge that at the apex of our political system, our constitutional structure, our armed forces, our Commonwealth, our legal system and our national church stood a lady of irreproachable morals, who moreover confined her political involvement to advising, encouraging and warning but never to partisan politics, has exercised an inestimably positive influence on our public life. Liz Truss wasn't exaggerating when she perceptively said that the Queen was \"the rock upon which modern Britain was built.\"Although she was a small \"c\" conservative in many aspects of life, as many nonagenarians naturally are, The Queen was always exemplary in the way that she never interfered in politics, and Sir Keir Starmer's public statement showed that the Labour Party admired her just as much as the large-c Conservatives. In a country that is being riven by extreme partisan politics at the moment, as Britons face a post-Covid future and inflationary spirals, admiration for her was one of the few things that united both frontbenches in parliament. Now even that has gone.More than a century separated the births of The Queen's first prime minister, Winston Churchill, and her last, Liz Truss. Even more extraordinary, the 96 years of her life constitutes 39% of the existence of the United States as an independent country. Her love of the United States -- her only incognito holidays were taken in Kentucky -- was instrumental in keeping our most important alliance, the Special Relationship, as fresh as it is profound. We have only just begun to note the number of ways we are going to miss her, on both the international and the domestic stages.A millennium-old monarchy is a book of many chapters. One unusually long and glorious chapter has closed, and a new one is now opening. If Britain today seems somewhat untethered, mournful of course but also apprehensive, it is because King Charles III has almost impossibly large boots to fill. Yet he has been waiting for 70 of his 73 years for the role to devolve upon him and is therefore supremely ready for it. There is something immensely spiritually right that a role such as this is assumed during a period of mourning. Politicians take power feeling like they have won the lottery; monarchs accede to thrones mournful at the death of their parent. Succession at a time of somber reflection rather than exultant triumph is part of the genius of constitutional monarchy.Queen Elizabeth II in the House of Lords for the opening of Parliament, May 2015. She continued to fulfill her duties until the end, appointing her 15th prime minister, Liz Truss, on Sept 6.We as a nation made The Queen do things that we would never, ever, even consider doing ourselves. We expected her to do her job to the age of 96, when we retire at 65, and to keep doing it up to two days before her death. We expected her to invite bloodthirsty dictators to stay in her home, because British foreign policy interests required it. We expected her, aged 86, to stand on a boat in the Thames in the freezing rain during the diamond jubilee, waving for hour after hour. We expected her to shake the hand of a former IRA gunmen who approved the murder of her husband's uncle. We expected her to smile and charm and shake hands cordially, whatever she might privately have been feeling inside about her family's all-too-public traumas.She did all of it, and in 70 years she never once complained. She was the best of us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":48,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936603778,"gmtCreate":1662763990294,"gmtModify":1676537133563,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936603778","repostId":"1121193410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121193410","pubTimestamp":1662736920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121193410?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-09 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121193410","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.Howev","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.</li><li>It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.</li><li>However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.</li><li>It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.</li><li>Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis and Background</b></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.</p><p>At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.</p><p>Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.</p><p><b>TSLA’s stress test</b></p><p>The following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.</p><p>Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.</p><p>So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e7881b443d2c420626b971f109ca311\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>TSLA’s fixed cost and variable cost</b></p><p>For a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from <i>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing</i> by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,</p><blockquote><i>Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.</i></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5c669923352cb292c185f41f4ea4fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au</p><p>The next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.</p><p>You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).</p><p>Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5520e0e03cd80a27fd4c847f92439068\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p><b>TSLA Stock’s profit and return projections</b></p><p>This next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.</p><p>Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.</p><p>As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.</p><p>For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d10ac6399c754be5f519058eac954f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author: TSLA’s profit and return projections</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc4fe07e1d74f5be8ebf212d915aeb0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Final thoughts and risks</b></p><p>To recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.</p><p>However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880cc09103624085d81075fe424881e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121193410","content_text":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.Thesis and BackgroundTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.TSLA’s stress testThe following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.Author based on Seeking Alpha dataTSLA’s fixed cost and variable costFor a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. AuThe next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.AuthorTSLA Stock’s profit and return projectionsThis next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.Author: TSLA’s profit and return projectionsSeeking AlphaFinal thoughts and risksTo recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.Seeking Alpha","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9943123839,"gmtCreate":1679294110822,"gmtModify":1679294115789,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943123839","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4140388454599512","authorId":"4140388454599512","name":"POHSWEEGUAN","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/84ca47540279e61404346b705a202bc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$","text":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$","html":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025016388,"gmtCreate":1653606092644,"gmtModify":1676535310694,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025016388","repostId":"2238007654","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238007654","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1653605155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2238007654?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-27 06:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Jumps on Retailer Outlook Hikes, Ebbing Fed Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238007654","media":"Reuters","summary":"Macy's, discount retailers' stocks climb after raising outlooksWeekly jobless claims dip; Q1 economi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Macy&#39;s, discount retailers&#39; stocks climb after raising outlooks</li><li>Weekly jobless claims dip; Q1 economic contraction confirmed</li><li>Indexes up: Dow 1.61%, S&amp;P 1.99%, Nasdaq 2.68%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street closed sharply higher on Thursday after optimistic retail earnings outlooks and waning concerns about overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve put investors in a buying mood.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes posted solid gains, with economically sensitive consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and microchip (.SOX) stocks beating the broader market.</p><p>The tech-laden Nasdaq surged the most - its 2.7% advance was powered by gains in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple Inc </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc</a>.</p><p>On a weekly basis, the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are on track to snap their longest losing streaks in decades, during which the benchmark S&amp;P plummeted 14.1% and brought it within striking distance of being confirmed as a bear market.</p><p>At current levels, all three indexes are poised to notch their biggest weekly gains since mid-March.</p><p>&#34;With first quarter earnings essentially over and coming in better than expected, combined with the Fed indicating that they are going to be front-end loading its rate-tightening policy and implying it may pause later in the fall, all of that has given investors reason to feel optimistic,&#34; said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.</p><p>Upbeat guidance from retailers appeared to offset dour warnings from their peers in recent weeks.</p><p>Department store operator Macy&#39;s Inc (M.N) jumped 19.3% after raising its annual profit forecast.</p><p>Discount chains <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">Dollar General Corp</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree </a> advanced by 13.7% and 21.9%, respectively, following their annual sales forecast hikes, suggesting consumers are shopping for less costly goods amid decades-high inflation. read more</p><p>The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s (FOMC) most recent monetary policy meeting calmed fears that the U.S. central bank could turn more hawkish, a concern which has fed into market volatility in recent weeks.</p><p>&#34;We have had 65% more daily price moves of 1% or more than the average since WW2,&#34; Stovall said.</p><p>&#34;If the Fed is too aggressive, they&#39;ll choke off inflation but also choke off economic growth,&#34; he added. &#34;It&#39;s like in the winter you want to tap your brakes, not slam on them, to maintain control and avoid spinning out.&#34;</p><p>Economic data released on Thursday, including jobless claims, pending home sales and GDP, brought good news wrapped in bad, suggesting the economy is showing just enough softness to prompt a dovish pivot from the Fed by autumn.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 516.91 points, or 1.61%, to 32,637.19; the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 79.11 points, or 1.99%, to 4,057.84; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 305.91 points, or 2.68%, to 11,740.65.</p><p>Of the 11 major indexes in the S&amp;P 500, all but real estate (.SPLRCR) ended the session up. Consumer discretionary led the gainers, rising 4.8%, with tech (.SPLRCT) and financials (.SPSY) placing and showing at 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively.</p><p>Shares of Twitter Inc jumped 6.4% on news that the social media company is suing billionaire Elon Musk for delayed disclosure of his stake in the company.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> Group rose 14.8% after the Chinese e-commerce company beat estimates, even as it declined to provide forward guidance.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 5.16-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.95-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 116 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.43 billion shares, compared with the 13.22 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Jumps on Retailer Outlook Hikes, Ebbing Fed Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Jumps on Retailer Outlook Hikes, Ebbing Fed Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-27 06:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Macy&#39;s, discount retailers&#39; stocks climb after raising outlooks</li><li>Weekly jobless claims dip; Q1 economic contraction confirmed</li><li>Indexes up: Dow 1.61%, S&amp;P 1.99%, Nasdaq 2.68%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street closed sharply higher on Thursday after optimistic retail earnings outlooks and waning concerns about overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve put investors in a buying mood.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes posted solid gains, with economically sensitive consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and microchip (.SOX) stocks beating the broader market.</p><p>The tech-laden Nasdaq surged the most - its 2.7% advance was powered by gains in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple Inc </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc</a>.</p><p>On a weekly basis, the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are on track to snap their longest losing streaks in decades, during which the benchmark S&amp;P plummeted 14.1% and brought it within striking distance of being confirmed as a bear market.</p><p>At current levels, all three indexes are poised to notch their biggest weekly gains since mid-March.</p><p>&#34;With first quarter earnings essentially over and coming in better than expected, combined with the Fed indicating that they are going to be front-end loading its rate-tightening policy and implying it may pause later in the fall, all of that has given investors reason to feel optimistic,&#34; said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.</p><p>Upbeat guidance from retailers appeared to offset dour warnings from their peers in recent weeks.</p><p>Department store operator Macy&#39;s Inc (M.N) jumped 19.3% after raising its annual profit forecast.</p><p>Discount chains <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">Dollar General Corp</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree </a> advanced by 13.7% and 21.9%, respectively, following their annual sales forecast hikes, suggesting consumers are shopping for less costly goods amid decades-high inflation. read more</p><p>The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s (FOMC) most recent monetary policy meeting calmed fears that the U.S. central bank could turn more hawkish, a concern which has fed into market volatility in recent weeks.</p><p>&#34;We have had 65% more daily price moves of 1% or more than the average since WW2,&#34; Stovall said.</p><p>&#34;If the Fed is too aggressive, they&#39;ll choke off inflation but also choke off economic growth,&#34; he added. &#34;It&#39;s like in the winter you want to tap your brakes, not slam on them, to maintain control and avoid spinning out.&#34;</p><p>Economic data released on Thursday, including jobless claims, pending home sales and GDP, brought good news wrapped in bad, suggesting the economy is showing just enough softness to prompt a dovish pivot from the Fed by autumn.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 516.91 points, or 1.61%, to 32,637.19; the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 79.11 points, or 1.99%, to 4,057.84; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 305.91 points, or 2.68%, to 11,740.65.</p><p>Of the 11 major indexes in the S&amp;P 500, all but real estate (.SPLRCR) ended the session up. Consumer discretionary led the gainers, rising 4.8%, with tech (.SPLRCT) and financials (.SPSY) placing and showing at 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively.</p><p>Shares of Twitter Inc jumped 6.4% on news that the social media company is suing billionaire Elon Musk for delayed disclosure of his stake in the company.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> Group rose 14.8% after the Chinese e-commerce company beat estimates, even as it declined to provide forward guidance.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 5.16-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.95-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 116 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.43 billion shares, compared with the 13.22 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238007654","content_text":"Macy's, discount retailers' stocks climb after raising outlooksWeekly jobless claims dip; Q1 economic contraction confirmedIndexes up: Dow 1.61%, S&P 1.99%, Nasdaq 2.68%(Reuters) - Wall Street closed sharply higher on Thursday after optimistic retail earnings outlooks and waning concerns about overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve put investors in a buying mood.All three major U.S. stock indexes posted solid gains, with economically sensitive consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and microchip (.SOX) stocks beating the broader market.The tech-laden Nasdaq surged the most - its 2.7% advance was powered by gains in Apple Inc , Tesla Inc and Amazon.com Inc.On a weekly basis, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are on track to snap their longest losing streaks in decades, during which the benchmark S&P plummeted 14.1% and brought it within striking distance of being confirmed as a bear market.At current levels, all three indexes are poised to notch their biggest weekly gains since mid-March.\"With first quarter earnings essentially over and coming in better than expected, combined with the Fed indicating that they are going to be front-end loading its rate-tightening policy and implying it may pause later in the fall, all of that has given investors reason to feel optimistic,\" said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.Upbeat guidance from retailers appeared to offset dour warnings from their peers in recent weeks.Department store operator Macy's Inc (M.N) jumped 19.3% after raising its annual profit forecast.Discount chains Dollar General Corp and Dollar Tree  advanced by 13.7% and 21.9%, respectively, following their annual sales forecast hikes, suggesting consumers are shopping for less costly goods amid decades-high inflation. read moreThe minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) most recent monetary policy meeting calmed fears that the U.S. central bank could turn more hawkish, a concern which has fed into market volatility in recent weeks.\"We have had 65% more daily price moves of 1% or more than the average since WW2,\" Stovall said.\"If the Fed is too aggressive, they'll choke off inflation but also choke off economic growth,\" he added. \"It's like in the winter you want to tap your brakes, not slam on them, to maintain control and avoid spinning out.\"Economic data released on Thursday, including jobless claims, pending home sales and GDP, brought good news wrapped in bad, suggesting the economy is showing just enough softness to prompt a dovish pivot from the Fed by autumn.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 516.91 points, or 1.61%, to 32,637.19; the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 79.11 points, or 1.99%, to 4,057.84; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 305.91 points, or 2.68%, to 11,740.65.Of the 11 major indexes in the S&P 500, all but real estate (.SPLRCR) ended the session up. Consumer discretionary led the gainers, rising 4.8%, with tech (.SPLRCT) and financials (.SPSY) placing and showing at 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively.Shares of Twitter Inc jumped 6.4% on news that the social media company is suing billionaire Elon Musk for delayed disclosure of his stake in the company.U.S.-listed shares of Alibaba Group rose 14.8% after the Chinese e-commerce company beat estimates, even as it declined to provide forward guidance.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 5.16-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.95-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 116 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.43 billion shares, compared with the 13.22 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908290201,"gmtCreate":1659394662903,"gmtModify":1705979760419,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908290201","repostId":"1142849270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142849270","pubTimestamp":1659367195,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142849270?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Income Obsession Sweeps Across Asset Classes as Stocks Swerve","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142849270","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Dividend ETFs, fixed-income in demand amid equity volatilityFed pivot optimism fuels S&P 500 to best","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Dividend ETFs, fixed-income in demand amid equity volatility</li><li>Fed pivot optimism fuels S&amp;P 500 to best month since Nov 2020</li></ul><p>Behind the scenes of the latest rebound in stocks is a growing penchant for steady income streams as risk appetite runs hot and cold this year.</p><p>In the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund arena, three dividend-focused ETFs rank among the top 10 in terms of equity inflows, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The leader, the $36.5 billion Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (ticker SCHD), has only posted five outflows this year.</p><p>In the bond market, a mix of dip-buying behavior and growth concerns has sparked a fierce rally in Treasuries after benchmark yields hit multiyear highs last month. Billions have been funneled into corporate debt, with the S&amp;P 500’s earnings yield holding the slimmest advantage to the average yield on blue-chip bonds in over a decade.</p><p>The demand for coupon-clipping and reliable payouts casts a cautious light on the biggest two-day rally on record following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday raised the potential for smaller rate hikes in the future, skeptics warn that still-high inflation will prevent a pivot and send the economy into a recession. Against that backdrop, it makes sense to play it safe, according to AlphaTrAI’s Max Gokhman.</p><p>“The common denominator is defense,” said Gokhman, the firm’s chief investment officer. “High-quality corporate debt and buying stocks of companies with resilient balance sheets that can afford to pay a consistent dividend without worrying about excess leverage or margin pressure makes sense.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e85bc40de18118437b82218c7aeb3032\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>While the S&amp;P 500 has soared 9% in July, on track for its biggest month of gains since November 2020, the index is still down 13% this year. Strong earnings have recently reassured traders, but uncertainty around a US recession and the path of the Fed’s rate hikes has kept traders on their toes.</p><p>The back-and-forth nature of stocks has made bonds more appealing to some investors. The average yield on investment-grade bonds is currently 4.35% while the S&amp;P 500 “pays out” about 4.8% in earnings. That’s close to the smallest gap since 2010.</p><p>“Really where we’re starting to see opportunity is credit markets,” Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager of BlackRock’s global allocation fund, said on Bloomberg Television. “If we’re going to be in an environment where equity is going to be choppy over the next few months, one of the things you can do in your portfolio is you can add carry. You can add income.”</p><p>Relatively high yields on investment-grade bonds means unlike much of the past decade, investors don’t even have to “dive down” in quality for worthwhile returns, according to Karissa McDonough of Community Bank Trust Services. That’s an attractive proposition with recession fears on high alert.</p><p>“In corporate bonds, especially high-quality corporates, we’re seeing over 5% yields in some of those areas, which we haven’t seen in a long time,” McDonough, a fixed-income strategist, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That’s real money, real income and a good opportunity as long as you’re selective.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa38c68313f0bc1c0866bde4a87bc3b\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Similarly, a volatile stock market this year has pushed investors toward ETFs that somewhat guarantee a stable income. SCHD, which has garnered nearly $8.3 billion this year, is on track to surpass 2021’s record $9.8 billion haul. And more than $6.3 billion has flowed into the $11.5 billion JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) year-to-date, while the $46.1 billion Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) has taken in $6 billion in 2022 -- a record.</p><p>ETF issuers have also been quick to try and capitalize on the trend. Launches and applications for income-oriented funds have multiplied this year, with strategies ranging from buying stocks of dividend-paying companies to selling call options on the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>But the hunt for income isn’t as simple as chasing the stocks with the highest payouts, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors’s Dan Suzuki, whose firm has been adding high-quality dividend stocks and long-duration bonds in recent weeks.</p><p>“High-dividend payers are like high-yield bonds -- there’s a risk priced in that the dividend gets cut,” said Suzuki, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer. But longer-dated Treasuries and higher-quality dividend stocks are “both an attractive way to get defensive in the portfolio.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Income Obsession Sweeps Across Asset Classes as Stocks Swerve</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIncome Obsession Sweeps Across Asset Classes as Stocks Swerve\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/income-obsession-sweeps-across-asset-classes-as-stocks-swerve?srnd=etfs><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dividend ETFs, fixed-income in demand amid equity volatilityFed pivot optimism fuels S&P 500 to best month since Nov 2020Behind the scenes of the latest rebound in stocks is a growing penchant for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/income-obsession-sweeps-across-asset-classes-as-stocks-swerve?srnd=etfs\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SCHD":"Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/income-obsession-sweeps-across-asset-classes-as-stocks-swerve?srnd=etfs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142849270","content_text":"Dividend ETFs, fixed-income in demand amid equity volatilityFed pivot optimism fuels S&P 500 to best month since Nov 2020Behind the scenes of the latest rebound in stocks is a growing penchant for steady income streams as risk appetite runs hot and cold this year.In the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund arena, three dividend-focused ETFs rank among the top 10 in terms of equity inflows, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The leader, the $36.5 billion Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (ticker SCHD), has only posted five outflows this year.In the bond market, a mix of dip-buying behavior and growth concerns has sparked a fierce rally in Treasuries after benchmark yields hit multiyear highs last month. Billions have been funneled into corporate debt, with the S&P 500’s earnings yield holding the slimmest advantage to the average yield on blue-chip bonds in over a decade.The demand for coupon-clipping and reliable payouts casts a cautious light on the biggest two-day rally on record following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday raised the potential for smaller rate hikes in the future, skeptics warn that still-high inflation will prevent a pivot and send the economy into a recession. Against that backdrop, it makes sense to play it safe, according to AlphaTrAI’s Max Gokhman.“The common denominator is defense,” said Gokhman, the firm’s chief investment officer. “High-quality corporate debt and buying stocks of companies with resilient balance sheets that can afford to pay a consistent dividend without worrying about excess leverage or margin pressure makes sense.”While the S&P 500 has soared 9% in July, on track for its biggest month of gains since November 2020, the index is still down 13% this year. Strong earnings have recently reassured traders, but uncertainty around a US recession and the path of the Fed’s rate hikes has kept traders on their toes.The back-and-forth nature of stocks has made bonds more appealing to some investors. The average yield on investment-grade bonds is currently 4.35% while the S&P 500 “pays out” about 4.8% in earnings. That’s close to the smallest gap since 2010.“Really where we’re starting to see opportunity is credit markets,” Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager of BlackRock’s global allocation fund, said on Bloomberg Television. “If we’re going to be in an environment where equity is going to be choppy over the next few months, one of the things you can do in your portfolio is you can add carry. You can add income.”Relatively high yields on investment-grade bonds means unlike much of the past decade, investors don’t even have to “dive down” in quality for worthwhile returns, according to Karissa McDonough of Community Bank Trust Services. That’s an attractive proposition with recession fears on high alert.“In corporate bonds, especially high-quality corporates, we’re seeing over 5% yields in some of those areas, which we haven’t seen in a long time,” McDonough, a fixed-income strategist, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That’s real money, real income and a good opportunity as long as you’re selective.”Similarly, a volatile stock market this year has pushed investors toward ETFs that somewhat guarantee a stable income. SCHD, which has garnered nearly $8.3 billion this year, is on track to surpass 2021’s record $9.8 billion haul. And more than $6.3 billion has flowed into the $11.5 billion JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) year-to-date, while the $46.1 billion Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) has taken in $6 billion in 2022 -- a record.ETF issuers have also been quick to try and capitalize on the trend. Launches and applications for income-oriented funds have multiplied this year, with strategies ranging from buying stocks of dividend-paying companies to selling call options on the S&P 500.But the hunt for income isn’t as simple as chasing the stocks with the highest payouts, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors’s Dan Suzuki, whose firm has been adding high-quality dividend stocks and long-duration bonds in recent weeks.“High-dividend payers are like high-yield bonds -- there’s a risk priced in that the dividend gets cut,” said Suzuki, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer. But longer-dated Treasuries and higher-quality dividend stocks are “both an attractive way to get defensive in the portfolio.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076866618,"gmtCreate":1657839183434,"gmtModify":1676536068060,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076866618","repostId":"1158390926","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158390926","pubTimestamp":1657812543,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158390926?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-14 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q2: A Complete Mess","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158390926","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMargins in focus due to multiple headwinds.Investors expecting a major production update.The ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Margins in focus due to multiple headwinds.</li><li>Investors expecting a major production update.</li><li>The Twitter saga continues to provide a major overhang.</li></ul><p>We&#39;re only about a week away from electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reporting its Q2 results on Wednesday, July 20th. This is likely to be the most difficult quarter to handicap for the company in some time, primarily given the Shanghaifactory shut down for a good chunk of the quarter. Today, I will examine some of the key items to watch for next week.</p><p>First, we know that production and deliveries took a sizable sequential hit, even with two new factories in Berlin and Austin starting to ramp production. Total vehicles delivered were down more than 55,000 units from Q1&#39;s record, with Shanghai unable to produce for a good chunk of April, and limited production for a number of weeks when the factory did reopen. Currently, the Street is looking for revenues of $17.16 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.87, as compared to $18.76 billion and $3.22, respectively, in Q1 of this year.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s average selling prices (excluding credit sales) will benefit from rising prices, a higher mix of S/X sales in the quarter, and a lower overall percentage of leased vehicles in the total. On the flip side, a stronger dollar during Q2 should have provided a headwind to the company&#39;s topline. For those that include credit sales in their overall numbers, that number is expected to come down quite a bit sequentially given the large one-time benefit reported in Q1.</p><p>The most important item I&#39;ll be looking at will be margins. Between the factory ramps, Shanghai shutdown, loss of credit sales, and cost inflation, Tesla margins are expected to take a hit in Q2. I&#39;m currently looking for total automotive gross margins on a GAAP basis to decline by about 4 percentage points from Q1 levels, coming in at almost 29%. I do think we&#39;ll see some cost savings on the operating side, but then you have major restructuring charges and an impairment on the Bitcoin holding that should ding the bottom line by more than half a billion dollars, pre-tax. In the graphic below, you can see my usual three earnings cases, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/539e0b94f9dcf9da263d4e4e1becf6cd\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Three Earnings Cases (Author&#39;s Estimates, Company Q1 Results)</p><p>At the moment, my base case looks a bit weaker than the Street. First of all, there are some analysts that don&#39;t seem to have updated their numbers recently, since the high revenue estimate on the Street is nearly $20 billion. That makes no sense given the massive drop in deliveries from Q1. If we get more realistic estimates in, the average should drop a few hundred million at least. On the bottom line, I can say the same thing, plus we also don&#39;t know which analysts have included the huge Bitcoin charge and restructuring costs in their estimates. Thus, I won&#39;t be as much concerned as how the headline results compare to the Street next Wednesday, unless there is a major difference, but will focus more on how those numbers came to be.</p><p>The second major item investors will be watching for will be a complete update on production. The Shanghai factory is expected to be shut down for a couple of weeks this month for production upgrades, which could allow it to have its best quarter ever. Key Tesla watcher Troy Teslike is calling for 365,000 deliveries during the current Q3. He has the street average nearly 25,000 above that, but figures estimates might come down as analysts factor in the Shanghai closure and temporary Berlin shutdown. Barring another Covid shutdown in China or some other major adverse event, Tesla is expected to set quarterly production and delivery records, which makes sense now that it has four factories that are fully operational (minus brief pauses).</p><p>With us now a couple of weeks into the second half of the year, Tesla could also provide an update on some of its currently delayed projects. The Semi was supposed to be here in 2019, with the Roadster in 2020, and Cybertruck in 2021. None of those products are currently available, and for some, they are just hopes for next year if all goes right. Investors and consumers are also waiting to hear how the full self-driving software package is coming, as that is key to the Tesla robotaxi business that was supposed to be here over 18 months ago.</p><p>As for Tesla shares, they are currently trading towards their lows for 2022. As the chart below shows, they again lost their 50-day moving average (purple line) on Monday. The Elon Musk Twitter (TWTR) saga continues to provide an overhang, with the social media company headed to court to enforce the Tesla CEO&#39;s purchase. If Twitter is successful, Elon Musk may have to sell more shares of Tesla, depending on how much side funding he can cobble together. The Musk aura also took a slight hit Monday evening after an unexpected failure of a rocket booster for SpaceX, raising questions about the near-term path of the Starship program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24444b453a33f31ef8bc8e53a639d9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla 6-Month Chart (Yahoo! Finance)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q2: A Complete Mess</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q2: A Complete Mess\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-14 23:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522958-tesla-tsla-q2-earnings-complete-mess><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMargins in focus due to multiple headwinds.Investors expecting a major production update.The Twitter saga continues to provide a major overhang.We're only about a week away from electric ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522958-tesla-tsla-q2-earnings-complete-mess\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522958-tesla-tsla-q2-earnings-complete-mess","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158390926","content_text":"SummaryMargins in focus due to multiple headwinds.Investors expecting a major production update.The Twitter saga continues to provide a major overhang.We're only about a week away from electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reporting its Q2 results on Wednesday, July 20th. This is likely to be the most difficult quarter to handicap for the company in some time, primarily given the Shanghaifactory shut down for a good chunk of the quarter. Today, I will examine some of the key items to watch for next week.First, we know that production and deliveries took a sizable sequential hit, even with two new factories in Berlin and Austin starting to ramp production. Total vehicles delivered were down more than 55,000 units from Q1's record, with Shanghai unable to produce for a good chunk of April, and limited production for a number of weeks when the factory did reopen. Currently, the Street is looking for revenues of $17.16 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.87, as compared to $18.76 billion and $3.22, respectively, in Q1 of this year.Tesla's average selling prices (excluding credit sales) will benefit from rising prices, a higher mix of S/X sales in the quarter, and a lower overall percentage of leased vehicles in the total. On the flip side, a stronger dollar during Q2 should have provided a headwind to the company's topline. For those that include credit sales in their overall numbers, that number is expected to come down quite a bit sequentially given the large one-time benefit reported in Q1.The most important item I'll be looking at will be margins. Between the factory ramps, Shanghai shutdown, loss of credit sales, and cost inflation, Tesla margins are expected to take a hit in Q2. I'm currently looking for total automotive gross margins on a GAAP basis to decline by about 4 percentage points from Q1 levels, coming in at almost 29%. I do think we'll see some cost savings on the operating side, but then you have major restructuring charges and an impairment on the Bitcoin holding that should ding the bottom line by more than half a billion dollars, pre-tax. In the graphic below, you can see my usual three earnings cases, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.Tesla Three Earnings Cases (Author's Estimates, Company Q1 Results)At the moment, my base case looks a bit weaker than the Street. First of all, there are some analysts that don't seem to have updated their numbers recently, since the high revenue estimate on the Street is nearly $20 billion. That makes no sense given the massive drop in deliveries from Q1. If we get more realistic estimates in, the average should drop a few hundred million at least. On the bottom line, I can say the same thing, plus we also don't know which analysts have included the huge Bitcoin charge and restructuring costs in their estimates. Thus, I won't be as much concerned as how the headline results compare to the Street next Wednesday, unless there is a major difference, but will focus more on how those numbers came to be.The second major item investors will be watching for will be a complete update on production. The Shanghai factory is expected to be shut down for a couple of weeks this month for production upgrades, which could allow it to have its best quarter ever. Key Tesla watcher Troy Teslike is calling for 365,000 deliveries during the current Q3. He has the street average nearly 25,000 above that, but figures estimates might come down as analysts factor in the Shanghai closure and temporary Berlin shutdown. Barring another Covid shutdown in China or some other major adverse event, Tesla is expected to set quarterly production and delivery records, which makes sense now that it has four factories that are fully operational (minus brief pauses).With us now a couple of weeks into the second half of the year, Tesla could also provide an update on some of its currently delayed projects. The Semi was supposed to be here in 2019, with the Roadster in 2020, and Cybertruck in 2021. None of those products are currently available, and for some, they are just hopes for next year if all goes right. Investors and consumers are also waiting to hear how the full self-driving software package is coming, as that is key to the Tesla robotaxi business that was supposed to be here over 18 months ago.As for Tesla shares, they are currently trading towards their lows for 2022. As the chart below shows, they again lost their 50-day moving average (purple line) on Monday. The Elon Musk Twitter (TWTR) saga continues to provide an overhang, with the social media company headed to court to enforce the Tesla CEO's purchase. If Twitter is successful, Elon Musk may have to sell more shares of Tesla, depending on how much side funding he can cobble together. The Musk aura also took a slight hit Monday evening after an unexpected failure of a rocket booster for SpaceX, raising questions about the near-term path of the Starship program.Tesla 6-Month Chart (Yahoo! Finance)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024341095,"gmtCreate":1653805122417,"gmtModify":1676535345144,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024341095","repostId":"2238585689","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238585689","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1653785130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2238585689?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-29 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$250 Billion in \"Rebalancing\" Inflows Could Rescue Stocks By the End of June, JPMorgan Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238585689","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"While stock-market strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley grow increasingly bearish, JPMo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While stock-market strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley grow increasingly bearish, JPMorgan&#39;s equity-research department has churned up yet another bullish note for the bank&#39;s clients, advising them about the potential for massive month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows that could trigger a sustained rebound in stocks, putting even more distance between the U.S. benchmarks and the bear-market territory with which the S&amp;P 500 index was flirting late last week.</p><p>The team of JPMorgan equity quants, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, told the bank&#39;s clients that potentially more than $250 billion could flow into stocks by the end of June as American mutual funds and pension funds, along with foreign pensions and sovereign-wealth funds, &#34;rebalance&#34; by buying stocks and selling bonds to compensate for the latest drop in stocks.</p><p>In their latest report on equity flows and liquidity, the team said it expects between $34 billion and $56 billion of buying by &#34;balanced&#34; mutual funds (that is, funds that aim to maintain a 60/40 weighting of stocks to bonds in accordance with the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory).</p><p>But even larger than the mutual-fund universe is the world of defined-benefit pension funds, which Panigirtzoglou and his team believe could dump as much as $167 billion into U.S. stocks by the end of June.</p><p>These funds have an aggregate $7.5 trillion in assets under management, according to JPMorgan, and although pension funds tend to rebalance more slowly than mutual funds, the JPMorgan team suspects that they might be behind the eight-ball on rebalancing for April, leaving more room for buying as we head into the summer months.</p><p>Finally, the JPMorgan analysts expect an additional $40 billion of inflows from major foreign buyers like the Norges Bank (which controls Norway&#39;s massive sovereign-wealth fund), the Swiss National Bank (which maintains a large portfolio of U.S. equities) and Japanese pension funds.</p><p>All told, that&#39;s potentially more than $250 billion in inflows that could bolster Wall Street stocks. Since algorithmic traders like Commodity Trading Advisors often trade based on momentum, the initial move higher in equities caused by these inflows could potentially trigger a virtuous feedback loop that could see stocks erase more than half of their year-to-date losses -- at least, according to JPMorgan.</p><p>To be sure, the JPMorgan team had expected a significant bump in equity prices due to rebalancing back in March, a call that didn&#39;t quite come to pass, although global equities did stage a brief rally, registering a modest gain for the month, their only monthly gain so far this year.</p><p>JPMorgan&#39;s strategists, particularly Panigirtzoglou and his colleague Marko Kolanovic, have been some of the most stridently bullish voices on Wall Street so far this year. But as noted above, other Wall Street strategists are much more bearish: for example, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note to clients published Monday that downward earnings revisions could cause stocks to shed another 5% to 10% of their value.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$250 Billion in \"Rebalancing\" Inflows Could Rescue Stocks By the End of June, JPMorgan Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$250 Billion in \"Rebalancing\" Inflows Could Rescue Stocks By the End of June, JPMorgan Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-29 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>While stock-market strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley grow increasingly bearish, JPMorgan&#39;s equity-research department has churned up yet another bullish note for the bank&#39;s clients, advising them about the potential for massive month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows that could trigger a sustained rebound in stocks, putting even more distance between the U.S. benchmarks and the bear-market territory with which the S&amp;P 500 index was flirting late last week.</p><p>The team of JPMorgan equity quants, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, told the bank&#39;s clients that potentially more than $250 billion could flow into stocks by the end of June as American mutual funds and pension funds, along with foreign pensions and sovereign-wealth funds, &#34;rebalance&#34; by buying stocks and selling bonds to compensate for the latest drop in stocks.</p><p>In their latest report on equity flows and liquidity, the team said it expects between $34 billion and $56 billion of buying by &#34;balanced&#34; mutual funds (that is, funds that aim to maintain a 60/40 weighting of stocks to bonds in accordance with the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory).</p><p>But even larger than the mutual-fund universe is the world of defined-benefit pension funds, which Panigirtzoglou and his team believe could dump as much as $167 billion into U.S. stocks by the end of June.</p><p>These funds have an aggregate $7.5 trillion in assets under management, according to JPMorgan, and although pension funds tend to rebalance more slowly than mutual funds, the JPMorgan team suspects that they might be behind the eight-ball on rebalancing for April, leaving more room for buying as we head into the summer months.</p><p>Finally, the JPMorgan analysts expect an additional $40 billion of inflows from major foreign buyers like the Norges Bank (which controls Norway&#39;s massive sovereign-wealth fund), the Swiss National Bank (which maintains a large portfolio of U.S. equities) and Japanese pension funds.</p><p>All told, that&#39;s potentially more than $250 billion in inflows that could bolster Wall Street stocks. Since algorithmic traders like Commodity Trading Advisors often trade based on momentum, the initial move higher in equities caused by these inflows could potentially trigger a virtuous feedback loop that could see stocks erase more than half of their year-to-date losses -- at least, according to JPMorgan.</p><p>To be sure, the JPMorgan team had expected a significant bump in equity prices due to rebalancing back in March, a call that didn&#39;t quite come to pass, although global equities did stage a brief rally, registering a modest gain for the month, their only monthly gain so far this year.</p><p>JPMorgan&#39;s strategists, particularly Panigirtzoglou and his colleague Marko Kolanovic, have been some of the most stridently bullish voices on Wall Street so far this year. But as noted above, other Wall Street strategists are much more bearish: for example, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note to clients published Monday that downward earnings revisions could cause stocks to shed another 5% to 10% of their value.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238585689","content_text":"While stock-market strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley grow increasingly bearish, JPMorgan's equity-research department has churned up yet another bullish note for the bank's clients, advising them about the potential for massive month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows that could trigger a sustained rebound in stocks, putting even more distance between the U.S. benchmarks and the bear-market territory with which the S&P 500 index was flirting late last week.The team of JPMorgan equity quants, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, told the bank's clients that potentially more than $250 billion could flow into stocks by the end of June as American mutual funds and pension funds, along with foreign pensions and sovereign-wealth funds, \"rebalance\" by buying stocks and selling bonds to compensate for the latest drop in stocks.In their latest report on equity flows and liquidity, the team said it expects between $34 billion and $56 billion of buying by \"balanced\" mutual funds (that is, funds that aim to maintain a 60/40 weighting of stocks to bonds in accordance with the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory).But even larger than the mutual-fund universe is the world of defined-benefit pension funds, which Panigirtzoglou and his team believe could dump as much as $167 billion into U.S. stocks by the end of June.These funds have an aggregate $7.5 trillion in assets under management, according to JPMorgan, and although pension funds tend to rebalance more slowly than mutual funds, the JPMorgan team suspects that they might be behind the eight-ball on rebalancing for April, leaving more room for buying as we head into the summer months.Finally, the JPMorgan analysts expect an additional $40 billion of inflows from major foreign buyers like the Norges Bank (which controls Norway's massive sovereign-wealth fund), the Swiss National Bank (which maintains a large portfolio of U.S. equities) and Japanese pension funds.All told, that's potentially more than $250 billion in inflows that could bolster Wall Street stocks. Since algorithmic traders like Commodity Trading Advisors often trade based on momentum, the initial move higher in equities caused by these inflows could potentially trigger a virtuous feedback loop that could see stocks erase more than half of their year-to-date losses -- at least, according to JPMorgan.To be sure, the JPMorgan team had expected a significant bump in equity prices due to rebalancing back in March, a call that didn't quite come to pass, although global equities did stage a brief rally, registering a modest gain for the month, their only monthly gain so far this year.JPMorgan's strategists, particularly Panigirtzoglou and his colleague Marko Kolanovic, have been some of the most stridently bullish voices on Wall Street so far this year. But as noted above, other Wall Street strategists are much more bearish: for example, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note to clients published Monday that downward earnings revisions could cause stocks to shed another 5% to 10% of their value.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934537663,"gmtCreate":1663282644152,"gmtModify":1676537241066,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934537663","repostId":"1105919895","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939022146,"gmtCreate":1662028970688,"gmtModify":1676536628457,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939022146","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905636556,"gmtCreate":1659868347777,"gmtModify":1703767230990,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905636556","repostId":"1166128821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166128821","pubTimestamp":1659844984,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166128821?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-07 12:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Q2: Investors Beware","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166128821","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estima","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.</li><li>Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.</li><li>Palantir&#39;s government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of lackluster order wins from the US government during the quarter.</li></ul><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will be releasing its Q2resultsbefore markets open on Monday. The company&#39;s management issued an extremely conservative revenue guidance for the quarter, in light of the global macroeconomic uncertainty, and investors are now wondering if there&#39;s a possibility of a revenue beat. But in addition to tracking Palantir&#39;s top line figure, investors should also track its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management&#39;s outlook for Q3. These items, collectively, will highlight Palantir&#39;s near-term growth prospects and are likely to determine where its shares head next.</p><p><b>Operating Metrics</b></p><p>There&#39;s no denying that Palantir is a rapidly growing company but we&#39;ve to keep a vigilant eye and check if its financial and operating growth momentums don&#39;t fizzle out during these times of macroeconomic uncertainty. For this, we can start by monitoring Palantir&#39;s customer additions, which essentially highlights its customer traction and indicates how competitive its platforms really are, in today&#39;s time.</p><p>Palantir has been able to expand its commercial customer base at an impressive pace over the past 6 quarters, exactly as I had forecasted in my prior articles like here, by undertaking a slew of initiatives. They rapidly expanded their sales team, offered free/limit trials to major enterprises and switched to a recurring payment model to reduce the inertia amongst its potential customer base. Since these initiatives are still ongoing, I expect them to continue bearing fruit and expect the company&#39;s commercial customer base to expand rapidly in the foreseeable future as well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfaddbc06e94e062dc724ff5af6593b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>However, Palantir seems to have hit a saturation point with regards to its government customer base. Maybe there&#39;s geopolitics at play, or maybe there aren&#39;t many government agencies in the world that are looking for data analytics solutions from a non-native company that has close ties with the US government. I welcome readers to speculate on the issue. But having said that, there haven&#39;t been any major announcements from Palantir to catapult growth in this area so I expect its government customer base to more or less remain flat sequentially.</p><p>Moving on, the customer adds figure alone won&#39;t be enough to reveal the entire picture. For instance, a sequentially flat billings figure, while customer growth continues, would imply that either existing customers slashed their spending on Palantir&#39;s platforms or its new customers signed up with miniscule contract values. On the other hand, healthy customer and billings growth would imply that Palantir&#39;s new and existing customers are in the process of ramping their spending on the company&#39;s platforms. A third scenario could be if Palantir&#39;s billings and customer growth declines, stagnates, or slows down, which would imply that Palantir has hit a saturation point and its platforms are no longer in vogue. So, pay close attention to Palantir&#39;s billings growth once the company reports its Q2 results this coming Monday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfef004ca3e7144d46683d030948280b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Now, having discussed the operating levers, let&#39;s now shift attention to Palantir&#39;s financials.</p><p><b>Financial Bifurcation</b></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Palantir classifies its revenue in two reportable segments, namely commercial and government segments. The commercial segment happens to be the smaller one out of the two, at least in terms of revenue, and amounted to nearly 46% of the company&#39;s total sales last quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c26bc211b592883ccfc648d76d754f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Thanks to the rapid commercial customer adds in recent quarters, Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue has been growing at a breakneck pace of late and driving growth for the company as a whole. I expect this dynamic to continue in Q2 as well, with commercial revenue growing 10% sequentially and amounting to $225 million during Q2 2022.</p><p>The government segment contributed a little over 54% to Palantir&#39;s overall sales last quarter and the revenue stream has been growing at a relatively slower pace. This is, in part, due to the saturation in government customer additions as seen in the first section of this article. If the company&#39;s government customer base has saturated, then it&#39;s only natural that its government revenue stream would saturate as well.</p><p>What exacerbates the problem is that the inflow of federal government contracts has considerably slowed down in the last 2 quarters. Although Palantir&#39;s management noted in their last earnings call that they are &#34;seeing an acceleration of our U.S. government revenue&#34;, the ground reality isn&#39;t all that encouraging. As it turns out, the dollar-value of new orders signed with various US government agencies during Q2, is up 14% sequentially but still down 48% year over year. This means that even though Palantir has made some progress on this front, there&#39;s still a long way to go when compared to the company&#39;s own prior history with government contract wins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513e837064ffbf5b6adf1084eda3110b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>So, as far as Q2 is concerned, I expect Palantir&#39;s government revenue to grow marginally by 3% sequentially, with its revenue figure coming in at approximately $249 million. At this pace, I expect Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue to overtake its government revenue and become the leading contributor to the entire company&#39;s top line sometime in Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. But coming back to our discussion, this brings us to a company-wide revenue estimate of $474.1 million. My forecast is coincidentally in-line with the Street&#39;sestimatesthat are spanning from $470 million to $475.9 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a64133285cdbea23e36084f025bdfe2b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>But having said that, pay close attention to Palantir management&#39;s revenue and billings outlook for Q3. As companies and government agencies across the globe cut down on spending, Palantir might be affected as well. This could come in the form of order cancellations, deferred contract signings and/or slowing down revenue growth. So, look for management&#39;s comments on their growth momentum.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>Palantir&#39;s shares are down 62% from their 52-week highs and they&#39;re now attractively valued at current levels. The stock is trading at 14-times its trailing twelve-month sales at the time of this writing, which is more or less in-line with many of the other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f28bcdbe209a2f5851224c7db57676\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>I, personally, expect Palantir to continue growing rapidly in the next 2 years at the very least. The company has compelling platform offerings and it has market validation in the form of rapid commercial customer additions. So, I remain bullish on Palantir. But, at the same time, I would recommend readers and investors to remain vigilant and monitor its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management&#39;s outlook for Q3. These items will indicate if Palantir is succumbing to macroeconomic pressures or if its growth momentum remains intact. Good Luck!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Q2: Investors Beware</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Q2: Investors Beware\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-07 12:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.Palantir's government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166128821","content_text":"SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.Palantir's government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of lackluster order wins from the US government during the quarter.Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will be releasing its Q2resultsbefore markets open on Monday. The company's management issued an extremely conservative revenue guidance for the quarter, in light of the global macroeconomic uncertainty, and investors are now wondering if there's a possibility of a revenue beat. But in addition to tracking Palantir's top line figure, investors should also track its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management's outlook for Q3. These items, collectively, will highlight Palantir's near-term growth prospects and are likely to determine where its shares head next.Operating MetricsThere's no denying that Palantir is a rapidly growing company but we've to keep a vigilant eye and check if its financial and operating growth momentums don't fizzle out during these times of macroeconomic uncertainty. For this, we can start by monitoring Palantir's customer additions, which essentially highlights its customer traction and indicates how competitive its platforms really are, in today's time.Palantir has been able to expand its commercial customer base at an impressive pace over the past 6 quarters, exactly as I had forecasted in my prior articles like here, by undertaking a slew of initiatives. They rapidly expanded their sales team, offered free/limit trials to major enterprises and switched to a recurring payment model to reduce the inertia amongst its potential customer base. Since these initiatives are still ongoing, I expect them to continue bearing fruit and expect the company's commercial customer base to expand rapidly in the foreseeable future as well.BusinessQuant.comHowever, Palantir seems to have hit a saturation point with regards to its government customer base. Maybe there's geopolitics at play, or maybe there aren't many government agencies in the world that are looking for data analytics solutions from a non-native company that has close ties with the US government. I welcome readers to speculate on the issue. But having said that, there haven't been any major announcements from Palantir to catapult growth in this area so I expect its government customer base to more or less remain flat sequentially.Moving on, the customer adds figure alone won't be enough to reveal the entire picture. For instance, a sequentially flat billings figure, while customer growth continues, would imply that either existing customers slashed their spending on Palantir's platforms or its new customers signed up with miniscule contract values. On the other hand, healthy customer and billings growth would imply that Palantir's new and existing customers are in the process of ramping their spending on the company's platforms. A third scenario could be if Palantir's billings and customer growth declines, stagnates, or slows down, which would imply that Palantir has hit a saturation point and its platforms are no longer in vogue. So, pay close attention to Palantir's billings growth once the company reports its Q2 results this coming Monday.BusinessQuant.comNow, having discussed the operating levers, let's now shift attention to Palantir's financials.Financial BifurcationIt's worth noting that Palantir classifies its revenue in two reportable segments, namely commercial and government segments. The commercial segment happens to be the smaller one out of the two, at least in terms of revenue, and amounted to nearly 46% of the company's total sales last quarter.BusinessQuant.comThanks to the rapid commercial customer adds in recent quarters, Palantir's commercial revenue has been growing at a breakneck pace of late and driving growth for the company as a whole. I expect this dynamic to continue in Q2 as well, with commercial revenue growing 10% sequentially and amounting to $225 million during Q2 2022.The government segment contributed a little over 54% to Palantir's overall sales last quarter and the revenue stream has been growing at a relatively slower pace. This is, in part, due to the saturation in government customer additions as seen in the first section of this article. If the company's government customer base has saturated, then it's only natural that its government revenue stream would saturate as well.What exacerbates the problem is that the inflow of federal government contracts has considerably slowed down in the last 2 quarters. Although Palantir's management noted in their last earnings call that they are \"seeing an acceleration of our U.S. government revenue\", the ground reality isn't all that encouraging. As it turns out, the dollar-value of new orders signed with various US government agencies during Q2, is up 14% sequentially but still down 48% year over year. This means that even though Palantir has made some progress on this front, there's still a long way to go when compared to the company's own prior history with government contract wins.BusinessQuant.comSo, as far as Q2 is concerned, I expect Palantir's government revenue to grow marginally by 3% sequentially, with its revenue figure coming in at approximately $249 million. At this pace, I expect Palantir's commercial revenue to overtake its government revenue and become the leading contributor to the entire company's top line sometime in Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. But coming back to our discussion, this brings us to a company-wide revenue estimate of $474.1 million. My forecast is coincidentally in-line with the Street'sestimatesthat are spanning from $470 million to $475.9 million.BusinessQuant.comBut having said that, pay close attention to Palantir management's revenue and billings outlook for Q3. As companies and government agencies across the globe cut down on spending, Palantir might be affected as well. This could come in the form of order cancellations, deferred contract signings and/or slowing down revenue growth. So, look for management's comments on their growth momentum.Final ThoughtsPalantir's shares are down 62% from their 52-week highs and they're now attractively valued at current levels. The stock is trading at 14-times its trailing twelve-month sales at the time of this writing, which is more or less in-line with many of the other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.BusinessQuant.comI, personally, expect Palantir to continue growing rapidly in the next 2 years at the very least. The company has compelling platform offerings and it has market validation in the form of rapid commercial customer additions. So, I remain bullish on Palantir. But, at the same time, I would recommend readers and investors to remain vigilant and monitor its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management's outlook for Q3. These items will indicate if Palantir is succumbing to macroeconomic pressures or if its growth momentum remains intact. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077439917,"gmtCreate":1658550404639,"gmtModify":1676536176108,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077439917","repostId":"2253065181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2253065181","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1658522173,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2253065181?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-23 04:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Lower As Ad Tech, Social Media Stocks Drop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2253065181","media":"Reuters","summary":"Snap Inc shares plunge on slowing growthCommunication services stocks lead sectoral declinesAmEx rai","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a> shares plunge on slowing growth</li><li>Communication services stocks lead sectoral declines</li><li>AmEx raises revenue forecast on resilient card spending</li><li>Indexes down: Dow 0.43%, S&amp;P 500 0.93%, Nasdaq 1.87%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday as disappointing earnings from Snap spooked investors and shares in social media and ad tech firms dropped, offsetting gains from card issuer American Express following an upbeat forecast.</p><p>Still, all three major indexes posted weekly gains despite Friday&#39;s losses with the tech heavy Nasdaq closing out the week 3.3% higher. The S&amp;P 500 advanced 2.4%, and the Dow gained 2%.</p><p>Snapchat owner posted its weakest-ever quarterly sales growth as a public company, sending Snap Inc&#39;s shares down nearly 40%, while Twitter Inc reversed earlier losses to add 0.8% following a surprise fall in revenue.</p><p>Other online companies that depend heavily on ads, such as tech giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc and Alphabet Inc tumbled 7.6% and 5.6%, respectively, weighing on the Nasdaq.</p><p>Meta and Alphabet are set to post their earnings next week, along with mega-cap peers, including Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp and Amazon.com Inc.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 communication services and information technology tumbled 4.3% and 1.4%, respectively, leading declines among the index&#39;s 11 sectors.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 137.61 points, or 0.43%, to 31,899.29, the S&amp;P 500 lost 37.32 points, or 0.93%, to 3,961.63 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225.50 points, or 1.87%, to 11,834.11.</p><p>&#34;Earnings are coming in less bad than feared, but they&#39;re deteriorating from what we got used to and accustomed to over the last several quarters,&#34; said Bob Doll, CIO at Crossmark Global Investments.</p><p>With 106 of the S&amp;P 500 companies having reported earnings through Friday morning, 75.5% have topped analyst expectations, below the 81% beat rate over the past four quarters, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>All eyes are on the Federal Reserve&#39;s meeting and second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data next week. While the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to curb runaway inflation, the GDP data is likely to be negative again.</p><p>Meanwhile, a survey on Friday showed that U.S. business activity contracted for the first time in nearly two years in July, deepening concerns about an economy stunted by high inflation, rising interest rates and dwindling consumer confidence.</p><p>“Economic data is coming in weaker.. kind of confirming the fact that a recession is highly likely over the next 12 months. And the markets is trying to figure out what that looks like with economic growth slowing significantly the Fed in the midst of pretty aggressive tightening fiscal,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors in Hunt Valley, Maryland.</p><p>Verizon Communications Inc tumbled 6.8% after announcing it cut its annual adjusted profit forecast as inflation weighs. American Express Co rose 1.9% on strong earnings and an increased revenue forecast.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.38 billion shares, compared with the 11.53 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.43-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.49-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 31 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 32 new highs and 74 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Lower As Ad Tech, Social Media Stocks Drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Lower As Ad Tech, Social Media Stocks Drop\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-23 04:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a> shares plunge on slowing growth</li><li>Communication services stocks lead sectoral declines</li><li>AmEx raises revenue forecast on resilient card spending</li><li>Indexes down: Dow 0.43%, S&amp;P 500 0.93%, Nasdaq 1.87%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday as disappointing earnings from Snap spooked investors and shares in social media and ad tech firms dropped, offsetting gains from card issuer American Express following an upbeat forecast.</p><p>Still, all three major indexes posted weekly gains despite Friday&#39;s losses with the tech heavy Nasdaq closing out the week 3.3% higher. The S&amp;P 500 advanced 2.4%, and the Dow gained 2%.</p><p>Snapchat owner posted its weakest-ever quarterly sales growth as a public company, sending Snap Inc&#39;s shares down nearly 40%, while Twitter Inc reversed earlier losses to add 0.8% following a surprise fall in revenue.</p><p>Other online companies that depend heavily on ads, such as tech giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc and Alphabet Inc tumbled 7.6% and 5.6%, respectively, weighing on the Nasdaq.</p><p>Meta and Alphabet are set to post their earnings next week, along with mega-cap peers, including Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp and Amazon.com Inc.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 communication services and information technology tumbled 4.3% and 1.4%, respectively, leading declines among the index&#39;s 11 sectors.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 137.61 points, or 0.43%, to 31,899.29, the S&amp;P 500 lost 37.32 points, or 0.93%, to 3,961.63 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225.50 points, or 1.87%, to 11,834.11.</p><p>&#34;Earnings are coming in less bad than feared, but they&#39;re deteriorating from what we got used to and accustomed to over the last several quarters,&#34; said Bob Doll, CIO at Crossmark Global Investments.</p><p>With 106 of the S&amp;P 500 companies having reported earnings through Friday morning, 75.5% have topped analyst expectations, below the 81% beat rate over the past four quarters, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>All eyes are on the Federal Reserve&#39;s meeting and second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data next week. While the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to curb runaway inflation, the GDP data is likely to be negative again.</p><p>Meanwhile, a survey on Friday showed that U.S. business activity contracted for the first time in nearly two years in July, deepening concerns about an economy stunted by high inflation, rising interest rates and dwindling consumer confidence.</p><p>“Economic data is coming in weaker.. kind of confirming the fact that a recession is highly likely over the next 12 months. And the markets is trying to figure out what that looks like with economic growth slowing significantly the Fed in the midst of pretty aggressive tightening fiscal,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors in Hunt Valley, Maryland.</p><p>Verizon Communications Inc tumbled 6.8% after announcing it cut its annual adjusted profit forecast as inflation weighs. American Express Co rose 1.9% on strong earnings and an increased revenue forecast.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.38 billion shares, compared with the 11.53 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.43-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.49-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 31 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 32 new highs and 74 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2253065181","content_text":"Snap Inc shares plunge on slowing growthCommunication services stocks lead sectoral declinesAmEx raises revenue forecast on resilient card spendingIndexes down: Dow 0.43%, S&P 500 0.93%, Nasdaq 1.87%(Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday as disappointing earnings from Snap spooked investors and shares in social media and ad tech firms dropped, offsetting gains from card issuer American Express following an upbeat forecast.Still, all three major indexes posted weekly gains despite Friday's losses with the tech heavy Nasdaq closing out the week 3.3% higher. The S&P 500 advanced 2.4%, and the Dow gained 2%.Snapchat owner posted its weakest-ever quarterly sales growth as a public company, sending Snap Inc's shares down nearly 40%, while Twitter Inc reversed earlier losses to add 0.8% following a surprise fall in revenue.Other online companies that depend heavily on ads, such as tech giants Meta Platforms Inc and Alphabet Inc tumbled 7.6% and 5.6%, respectively, weighing on the Nasdaq.Meta and Alphabet are set to post their earnings next week, along with mega-cap peers, including Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp and Amazon.com Inc.The S&P 500 communication services and information technology tumbled 4.3% and 1.4%, respectively, leading declines among the index's 11 sectors.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 137.61 points, or 0.43%, to 31,899.29, the S&P 500 lost 37.32 points, or 0.93%, to 3,961.63 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225.50 points, or 1.87%, to 11,834.11.\"Earnings are coming in less bad than feared, but they're deteriorating from what we got used to and accustomed to over the last several quarters,\" said Bob Doll, CIO at Crossmark Global Investments.With 106 of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings through Friday morning, 75.5% have topped analyst expectations, below the 81% beat rate over the past four quarters, according to Refinitiv data.All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's meeting and second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data next week. While the U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to curb runaway inflation, the GDP data is likely to be negative again.Meanwhile, a survey on Friday showed that U.S. business activity contracted for the first time in nearly two years in July, deepening concerns about an economy stunted by high inflation, rising interest rates and dwindling consumer confidence.“Economic data is coming in weaker.. kind of confirming the fact that a recession is highly likely over the next 12 months. And the markets is trying to figure out what that looks like with economic growth slowing significantly the Fed in the midst of pretty aggressive tightening fiscal,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors in Hunt Valley, Maryland.Verizon Communications Inc tumbled 6.8% after announcing it cut its annual adjusted profit forecast as inflation weighs. American Express Co rose 1.9% on strong earnings and an increased revenue forecast.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.38 billion shares, compared with the 11.53 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.43-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.49-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 31 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 32 new highs and 74 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071419261,"gmtCreate":1657580004053,"gmtModify":1676536027018,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071419261","repostId":"1164092479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164092479","pubTimestamp":1657553305,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164092479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-11 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Last Bubble Standing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164092479","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>As the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings yield, Tesla is the last bubble standing.</li><li>Elon Musk’s diverted focus is not good news for AI and autonomous drive. He’s been selling stock hand-over-fist.</li><li>In the next recession, Tesla&#39;s earnings will likely decline, and the bubble will go &#34;pop.&#34; We&#39;ll dig into why we see a lost decade ahead for TSLA.</li></ul><p><b>The Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has captured the minds of investors the world over. The company has become more of a gambling machine than an investment; in 2021, TSLA was the most traded stock among retail investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e3d4b7cda76da9b0147473895a518c9\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1088\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Most Traded Stocks (Degiro)</p><p>So why is Tesla not crumbling entirely in the face of this bear market? Well, autos are still riding an all-time hot wave of sales, and investors aren&#39;t pricing in the cyclicality of earnings. In a deep recession, Tesla&#39;s earnings can and likely will decline, along with all other automakers. At which time, the air will come out of Tesla&#39;s stock.</p><p><b>Autos vs. Recession</b></p><p>Recessions get nasty for auto manufacturers. History has shown that it doesn&#39;t matter who you are, when big recessions hit, auto earnings not only decline but usually go negative in this capital-intensive industry. In 2009, auto manufacturers got absolutely crushed, reporting negative net income across the board:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/178b4e4d53d206f47912083db8e6b7ea\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>You may ask, &#34;What about the recession of 2020?&#34; Well, 2020 was unlike any recession in the past. The government sent out so many stimulus checks, that consumers&#39; bank accounts actually ballooned. Combined with the lowest interest rates in 5000 years, buying a $50,000 car became more affordable than ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dea3cc478a3fb47133524908183cc64\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cash Balances of American Consumers (RSM)</p><p><b>Disconnected Management</b></p><p>As the bubble booms on, Elon Musk has beensellingTesla shares hand-over-fist, with excuses like this:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3740aa3afe71aa226eca83a1d035e273\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elon Musk Tweet (Bloomberg)</p><p>This is not what we like to see from our CEO. To be fair to Musk, he did tweet this back in 2020, when the stock was at $140 per share:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a940e22f55a558f3d8e8d882e91469a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elon Musk Tweet (Quora)</p><p>TSLA currently has a 1% earnings yield on what is likely an industry peak. It appears to us that Elon&#39;s getting out.</p><p>With the proceeds, Musk is attempting to buy Twitter (TWTR) outright. Keep in mind that Musk is not only focusing his time and attention on this, but to SpaceX, which is arguably a more promising business. The space industry is projected to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2040.</p><p><b>A Fundamental Look At Tesla&#39;s Growth</b></p><p>Tesla is going global and getting closer to its customer base, with new factories in Shanghai, China, as well as Berlin, Germany. You would think this move would expand Tesla&#39;s market share. But from 2020 to 2021, Tesla&#39;s global market share actually shrank from17%to just under14%.</p><p>Competition is coming from everywhere. With a 14% market share, Tesla is more likely to lose share than to gain it. Companies like Honda (HMC) (OTCPK:HNDAF), BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Ford (F), GM (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), Jaguar, Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY) (OTCPK:MZDAF), Mercedes (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY), Mitsubishi, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) (OTCPK:NSANF), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY) (OTCPK:FUJHF), Toyota (TM) (OTCPK:TOYOF), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) (OTCPK:VLKAF) (OTCPK:VWAPY), and Volvo (OTCPK:VOLAF) (OTCPK:VLVLY) (OTCPK:VOLVF) are all adding EVs to their lineups. Many of these companies have strong and entrenched brands and are partnering with EV titans like BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF). On top of that, they&#39;re producing EVs that are more affordable for the average consumer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78163ed4a8e14f033b94ab5f7ab5ba04\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global EV Market Share (Statista)</p><p>Tesla&#39;s margins could also decrease. A cooler economy, increased competition, and used EVs coming online means the price of buying an EV could actually fall over time. Tesla&#39;s benefited from government credits, but these credits could dissipate now that EV companies like Tesla are profitable and highly valued.</p><p>To understand where Tesla is going, we need to understand where the industry is going. The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17.5% per annum through to 2030. Tesla&#39;s energy business has grown revenue at21% per annum over the past 3 years.</p><p>95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue still comes from the automotive arm:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d7141d89fbc6299c4d310ef0e3a6d2\" tg-width=\"1268\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla&#39;s Revenue Breakdown (2021 Annual Report)</p><p>Given the market share, margins, and industry risks, we estimate Tesla will simply match the growth of global EV sales, growing 17.5% per annum. The energy business should continue to grow and become profitable, which will partially make up for the issues cited above.</p><p><b>The Valuation</b></p><p>Our 2032 price target for TSLA is $683 per share, indicating a return of 0% per annum, with no dividends.</p><ul><li>Tesla has earnings of $7.78 per share, giving it a PE of nearly 100. If Tesla&#39;s EPS should grow at 17.5% per annum, we get 2032 earnings of $39 per share. While the typical car company trades at just 10x normalized earnings, Tesla continues to benefit from the transition to EVs, and should have a more prominent footprint in clean energy generation and storage in 2032. We&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 17.5x earnings, which is a 75% premium to the average car company. Remember, the auto business is cyclical, competitive, and prone to bankruptcy. It&#39;s difficult to justify a higher multiple unless our risks to the thesis play out.</li></ul><p><b>Risks To The Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla&#39;s future is very up in the air. Elon Musk has all sorts of stories for investors revolving around autonomous drive, robotics, ride-sharing, and artificial intelligence. However, we do not yet have substantial revenues from Musk&#39;s many grand ideas. When those revenues do materialize, the businesses are likely to be loss-making, much like TSLA&#39;s energy business thus far. Competition will be strong in these fields. Autonomous drive, for instance, has attracted competition from Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Uber (UBER), General Motors, Nvidia (NVDA), Baidu (BIDU), Ford, Aptiv (APTV), and Luminar Technologies (LAZR).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee253b2e571ef4520e73af17cb9e1ee6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Bot (Wired)</p><p>If Elon Musk&#39;s focus doesn&#39;t stray too much, the company could win in one or more of these fields, which would be a boon for long-term profits and Tesla&#39;s terminal multiple.</p><p>For more on the Tesla bull thesis, readers can review claims by Cathie Wood, who says the stock will quintuple in a few years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Last Bubble Standing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Last Bubble Standing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-11 23:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522405-tesla-stock-the-last-bubble-standing?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A23><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings yield, Tesla is the last bubble standing.Elon Musk’s diverted focus is not good news for AI and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522405-tesla-stock-the-last-bubble-standing?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A23\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522405-tesla-stock-the-last-bubble-standing?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A23","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164092479","content_text":"SummaryAs the market crumbles around it, the enthusiasm for Tesla is unwavering. With a 1% earnings yield, Tesla is the last bubble standing.Elon Musk’s diverted focus is not good news for AI and autonomous drive. He’s been selling stock hand-over-fist.In the next recession, Tesla's earnings will likely decline, and the bubble will go \"pop.\" We'll dig into why we see a lost decade ahead for TSLA.The ThesisTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has captured the minds of investors the world over. The company has become more of a gambling machine than an investment; in 2021, TSLA was the most traded stock among retail investors.Most Traded Stocks (Degiro)So why is Tesla not crumbling entirely in the face of this bear market? Well, autos are still riding an all-time hot wave of sales, and investors aren't pricing in the cyclicality of earnings. In a deep recession, Tesla's earnings can and likely will decline, along with all other automakers. At which time, the air will come out of Tesla's stock.Autos vs. RecessionRecessions get nasty for auto manufacturers. History has shown that it doesn't matter who you are, when big recessions hit, auto earnings not only decline but usually go negative in this capital-intensive industry. In 2009, auto manufacturers got absolutely crushed, reporting negative net income across the board:Data by YChartsYou may ask, \"What about the recession of 2020?\" Well, 2020 was unlike any recession in the past. The government sent out so many stimulus checks, that consumers' bank accounts actually ballooned. Combined with the lowest interest rates in 5000 years, buying a $50,000 car became more affordable than ever.Cash Balances of American Consumers (RSM)Disconnected ManagementAs the bubble booms on, Elon Musk has beensellingTesla shares hand-over-fist, with excuses like this:Elon Musk Tweet (Bloomberg)This is not what we like to see from our CEO. To be fair to Musk, he did tweet this back in 2020, when the stock was at $140 per share:Elon Musk Tweet (Quora)TSLA currently has a 1% earnings yield on what is likely an industry peak. It appears to us that Elon's getting out.With the proceeds, Musk is attempting to buy Twitter (TWTR) outright. Keep in mind that Musk is not only focusing his time and attention on this, but to SpaceX, which is arguably a more promising business. The space industry is projected to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2040.A Fundamental Look At Tesla's GrowthTesla is going global and getting closer to its customer base, with new factories in Shanghai, China, as well as Berlin, Germany. You would think this move would expand Tesla's market share. But from 2020 to 2021, Tesla's global market share actually shrank from17%to just under14%.Competition is coming from everywhere. With a 14% market share, Tesla is more likely to lose share than to gain it. Companies like Honda (HMC) (OTCPK:HNDAF), BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Ford (F), GM (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), Jaguar, Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY) (OTCPK:MZDAF), Mercedes (OTCPK:DDAIF) (OTCPK:DMLRY), Mitsubishi, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) (OTCPK:NSANF), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY) (OTCPK:FUJHF), Toyota (TM) (OTCPK:TOYOF), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) (OTCPK:VLKAF) (OTCPK:VWAPY), and Volvo (OTCPK:VOLAF) (OTCPK:VLVLY) (OTCPK:VOLVF) are all adding EVs to their lineups. Many of these companies have strong and entrenched brands and are partnering with EV titans like BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF). On top of that, they're producing EVs that are more affordable for the average consumer.Global EV Market Share (Statista)Tesla's margins could also decrease. A cooler economy, increased competition, and used EVs coming online means the price of buying an EV could actually fall over time. Tesla's benefited from government credits, but these credits could dissipate now that EV companies like Tesla are profitable and highly valued.To understand where Tesla is going, we need to understand where the industry is going. The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17.5% per annum through to 2030. Tesla's energy business has grown revenue at21% per annum over the past 3 years.95% of Tesla's revenue still comes from the automotive arm:Tesla's Revenue Breakdown (2021 Annual Report)Given the market share, margins, and industry risks, we estimate Tesla will simply match the growth of global EV sales, growing 17.5% per annum. The energy business should continue to grow and become profitable, which will partially make up for the issues cited above.The ValuationOur 2032 price target for TSLA is $683 per share, indicating a return of 0% per annum, with no dividends.Tesla has earnings of $7.78 per share, giving it a PE of nearly 100. If Tesla's EPS should grow at 17.5% per annum, we get 2032 earnings of $39 per share. While the typical car company trades at just 10x normalized earnings, Tesla continues to benefit from the transition to EVs, and should have a more prominent footprint in clean energy generation and storage in 2032. We've applied a terminal multiple of 17.5x earnings, which is a 75% premium to the average car company. Remember, the auto business is cyclical, competitive, and prone to bankruptcy. It's difficult to justify a higher multiple unless our risks to the thesis play out.Risks To The ThesisTesla's future is very up in the air. Elon Musk has all sorts of stories for investors revolving around autonomous drive, robotics, ride-sharing, and artificial intelligence. However, we do not yet have substantial revenues from Musk's many grand ideas. When those revenues do materialize, the businesses are likely to be loss-making, much like TSLA's energy business thus far. Competition will be strong in these fields. Autonomous drive, for instance, has attracted competition from Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Uber (UBER), General Motors, Nvidia (NVDA), Baidu (BIDU), Ford, Aptiv (APTV), and Luminar Technologies (LAZR).Tesla Bot (Wired)If Elon Musk's focus doesn't stray too much, the company could win in one or more of these fields, which would be a boon for long-term profits and Tesla's terminal multiple.For more on the Tesla bull thesis, readers can review claims by Cathie Wood, who says the stock will quintuple in a few years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070635171,"gmtCreate":1657061716393,"gmtModify":1676535939544,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070635171","repostId":"1170895202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170895202","pubTimestamp":1657034675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170895202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-05 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170895202","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hit a record low and interest rates surged, according to the latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba6f92918aa47680d8463b6a5b5f285\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a 38% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. That’s up from around 0% just a few months before.</p><p>“The risk of a self-fulfilling recession—and one that can happen as soon as early next year—is higher than before,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Even though household and business balance sheets are strong, worries about the future could cause consumers to pull back, which in turn would lead businesses to hire and invest less.”</p><p>“The risk of a recession in early 2023 has risen substantially,” Wong said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in June by 75 basis points, the most since 1994, and signaled further increases—potentially of a similar size—in the months ahead. That came on the heels of a 50 basis-point hike in the prior month and cemented a decisively aggressive pivot by the central bank.</p><p>The rapid run-up in borrowing costs, paired with tightening financial conditions and decades-high inflation, has heightened concerns that the Fed—in its attempt to cool the economy and therefore inflation—will ultimately tip the US economy into recession.</p><p><b>Recession Odds Rise</b></p><p>Probability of a US recession within 12 months</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc6a7bef2b883774c8ff201099e3c9d\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The rise in recession odds in the latest month can largely be traced to two factors: a moderation in the corporate profit outlook and a significant deterioration in consumer sentiment.</p><p><b>Changing Picture</b></p><p>Selected key indicators from recession probability model</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f579e4b1edabeed518b309e502161669\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Note: ‘Expected change in business conditions’ is an index based to 100. ‘Conference board expectations’ shows the spread between the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index, both where 1985=100.</span></p><p>Financial conditions have tightened considerably in recent months, and corporate profit margins, while still robust, are set to soften somewhat in the second quarter of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics. In the wake of steep rate hikes by the Fed, businesses are contending with rising cost of capital.</p><p>Secondly, Americans’ views of future business conditions sharply deteriorated in June. Each month the University of Michigan releases a closely watched survey of consumer sentiment. The June report not only showed a collapse in consumer sentiment to a record low but also a big decline in a gauge of the expected change in business conditions in a year. At 76, that figure is now at one of its lowest readings in records back to 1978.</p><p>Decades-high inflation has particularly weighed on consumer confidence. Americans are facing near-record prices at the pump and ballooning bills at the grocery store. Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings have fallen for eight straight months, eroding Americans’ purchasing power and souring their views on the economy. The savings rate is near its lowest level since 2009, and more than half of Americans believe the US is already in recession.</p><p>A recession is certainly not inevitable, but the path to a so-called soft landing—a cooling in economic activity that doesn’t lead to a recession—is becoming increasingly narrow. That may require price growth to slow sharply and would likely be accompanied by a slight rise in unemployment. The Fed is hopeful of such a result, but Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged achieving it will be “very challenging.”</p><p>Should a downturn begin in the next year or two, the pandemic recovery—which began in May 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research—would be the shortest US expansion since the one in 1981-1982, which lasted just 12 months.</p><p>Bloomberg Economics’ year-ahead recession probability model will be updated monthly.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Recession Chances Surge to 38%, Bloomberg Economics Model Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-05 23:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hit a record low and interest rates surged, according to the latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170895202","content_text":"The odds of a US recession in the next year are now roughly one-in-three after consumer sentiment hit a record low and interest rates surged, according to the latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics.The probability model, which incorporates a variety of factors ranging from housing permits and consumer survey data to the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, is now flashing a 38% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. That’s up from around 0% just a few months before.“The risk of a self-fulfilling recession—and one that can happen as soon as early next year—is higher than before,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Even though household and business balance sheets are strong, worries about the future could cause consumers to pull back, which in turn would lead businesses to hire and invest less.”“The risk of a recession in early 2023 has risen substantially,” Wong said.The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in June by 75 basis points, the most since 1994, and signaled further increases—potentially of a similar size—in the months ahead. That came on the heels of a 50 basis-point hike in the prior month and cemented a decisively aggressive pivot by the central bank.The rapid run-up in borrowing costs, paired with tightening financial conditions and decades-high inflation, has heightened concerns that the Fed—in its attempt to cool the economy and therefore inflation—will ultimately tip the US economy into recession.Recession Odds RiseProbability of a US recession within 12 monthsThe rise in recession odds in the latest month can largely be traced to two factors: a moderation in the corporate profit outlook and a significant deterioration in consumer sentiment.Changing PictureSelected key indicators from recession probability modelNote: ‘Expected change in business conditions’ is an index based to 100. ‘Conference board expectations’ shows the spread between the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index, both where 1985=100.Financial conditions have tightened considerably in recent months, and corporate profit margins, while still robust, are set to soften somewhat in the second quarter of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics. In the wake of steep rate hikes by the Fed, businesses are contending with rising cost of capital.Secondly, Americans’ views of future business conditions sharply deteriorated in June. Each month the University of Michigan releases a closely watched survey of consumer sentiment. The June report not only showed a collapse in consumer sentiment to a record low but also a big decline in a gauge of the expected change in business conditions in a year. At 76, that figure is now at one of its lowest readings in records back to 1978.Decades-high inflation has particularly weighed on consumer confidence. Americans are facing near-record prices at the pump and ballooning bills at the grocery store. Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings have fallen for eight straight months, eroding Americans’ purchasing power and souring their views on the economy. The savings rate is near its lowest level since 2009, and more than half of Americans believe the US is already in recession.A recession is certainly not inevitable, but the path to a so-called soft landing—a cooling in economic activity that doesn’t lead to a recession—is becoming increasingly narrow. That may require price growth to slow sharply and would likely be accompanied by a slight rise in unemployment. The Fed is hopeful of such a result, but Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged achieving it will be “very challenging.”Should a downturn begin in the next year or two, the pandemic recovery—which began in May 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research—would be the shortest US expansion since the one in 1981-1982, which lasted just 12 months.Bloomberg Economics’ year-ahead recession probability model will be updated monthly.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047903147,"gmtCreate":1656844326089,"gmtModify":1676535903000,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047903147","repostId":"2248980919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2248980919","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1656848586,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2248980919?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-03 19:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q2 Deliveries Slump To 254,695 Amid Supply Chain, Pandemic Problems","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248980919","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 2 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc said on Saturday its vehicle deliveries fell to 254,695 in the second q","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>July 2 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc said on Saturday its vehicle deliveries fell to 254,695 in the second quarter, as a COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain.</p><p>In the preceding quarter, the U.S. electric car maker delivered 310,048 vehicles globally.</p><p>Analysts had expected Tesla to report deliveries of 295,078 vehicles for the April to June period, according to Refinitiv data. Several analysts had slashed their estimates further to about 250,000 due to China&#39;s prolonged lockdown.</p><p>Tesla said it delivered 238,533 Model 3 compact cars and Model Y sport-utility vehicles, as well as 16,162 of its Model S and Model X vehicles to customers in the quarter.</p><p>Total production fell 15.3% to 258,580 vehicles from the first quarter. June 2022 was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla&#39;s history, the company said in a news release.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06a0b120caa4763851aba5807bfe85b\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q2 Deliveries Slump To 254,695 Amid Supply Chain, Pandemic Problems</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q2 Deliveries Slump To 254,695 Amid Supply Chain, Pandemic Problems\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-03 19:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>July 2 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc said on Saturday its vehicle deliveries fell to 254,695 in the second quarter, as a COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain.</p><p>In the preceding quarter, the U.S. electric car maker delivered 310,048 vehicles globally.</p><p>Analysts had expected Tesla to report deliveries of 295,078 vehicles for the April to June period, according to Refinitiv data. Several analysts had slashed their estimates further to about 250,000 due to China&#39;s prolonged lockdown.</p><p>Tesla said it delivered 238,533 Model 3 compact cars and Model Y sport-utility vehicles, as well as 16,162 of its Model S and Model X vehicles to customers in the quarter.</p><p>Total production fell 15.3% to 258,580 vehicles from the first quarter. June 2022 was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla&#39;s history, the company said in a news release.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06a0b120caa4763851aba5807bfe85b\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2248980919","content_text":"July 2 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc said on Saturday its vehicle deliveries fell to 254,695 in the second quarter, as a COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain.In the preceding quarter, the U.S. electric car maker delivered 310,048 vehicles globally.Analysts had expected Tesla to report deliveries of 295,078 vehicles for the April to June period, according to Refinitiv data. Several analysts had slashed their estimates further to about 250,000 due to China's prolonged lockdown.Tesla said it delivered 238,533 Model 3 compact cars and Model Y sport-utility vehicles, as well as 16,162 of its Model S and Model X vehicles to customers in the quarter.Total production fell 15.3% to 258,580 vehicles from the first quarter. June 2022 was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla's history, the company said in a news release.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":20,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027098562,"gmtCreate":1653951527756,"gmtModify":1676535365640,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027098562","repostId":"2239151510","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2239151510","pubTimestamp":1653921418,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2239151510?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-30 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week: GameStop, ChargePoint and Conn's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2239151510","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>My &#34;three stocks to avoid&#34; column last week didn&#39;t pan out. All three investments I figured would be in for a rough few trading days moved sharply higher. The three names I thought were going to move lower for the week -- <b>Alibaba</b>, <b>Tesla</b>, and <b>Nordstrom</b> -- finished up 8%, 14%, and 25%, respectively, averaging out to a 15.7% gain. Ouch!</p><p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> soared 6.6% for the week, but naturally the stocks I figured would fare worse did not. I was wrong, but I have still been right in 22 of the past 32 weeks.</p><p>I see <b>GameStop</b> (GME 6.81%), <b>ChargePoint</b> (CHPT 13.89%), and <b>Conn&#39;s</b> (CONN -1.53%) as stocks you may want to consider steering clear of this week. Let&#39;s go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F682427%2Fgettycrash.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>GameStop</h2><p>The original meme stock is rolling again. Shares of the video game retailer soared 54% -- yes, 54% -- in the last three trading days. What can possibly get in the way of a meme stock mowing down its short sellers? Earnings season. GameStop shares have declined the trading day after reporting earnings in 11 of the past 14 quarters. Some of the slides have been fairly substantial, even last year when GameStop was off to the races. The retailer will peel back the curtain on its fiscal first quarter results on Wednesday afternoon.</p><p>GameStop&#39;s performance when it has fresh financials to put out has been sobering. It has posted a larger-than-expected loss for three consecutive quarters. The $1.32 billion analysts are forecasting in revenue is a small year-over-year increase, but 15% below its top-line results three years ago in its last pre-pandemic fiscal first quarter. More importantly, the stock was in the single digits at the time.</p><p>GameStop is making some interesting moves in NFTs and crypto, but those markets have also been hit hard in recent months. GameStop is going to need a strong report to justify last week&#39;s gains. History tells us that you probably don&#39;t want to bet on that.</p><h2>ChargePoint</h2><p>There&#39;s no doubt that the electric-vehicle market will have years of explosive growth, but it&#39;s probably too early to bet on the growing number of companies that are providing charging stations. It could be a race to the bottom, and players building out their networks now may never turn a profit. Analysts don&#39;t see ChargePoint in the black until 2026, and by then the market will probably be far more cutthroat than it is now.</p><p>ChargePoint reports fresh financials after Tuesday&#39;s market close. Momentum hasn&#39;t been kind. It has posted larger losses than analysts were targeting in back-to-back quarters. Wall Street pros have been widening their expected deficits for the quarter it will discuss on Tuesday as well as the current fiscal year.</p><h2>Conn&#39;s</h2><p>Let&#39;s close out the list with yet <i>another</i> name reporting quarterly results this week. Wednesday morning is when Conn&#39;s steps up to the plate. The big-box retailer that sells furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics could be in for a rough financial update. We&#39;ve already seen a few retailers warn that guests have been shifting their spending away form big-ticket home items. Conn&#39;s also had the problematic distinction of missing Wall Street estimates on both ends of its income statement last time out.</p><p>The stock tumbled 26% in the four trading days following its last report. Is there any reason to expect that Conn&#39;s will fare any better in a climate that has grown even more challenging? It could be a tough week for the retailer.</p><p>It&#39;s going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you&#39;re looking for safe stocks, you aren&#39;t likely to find them in GameStop, ChargePoint, or Conn&#39;s this week.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week: GameStop, ChargePoint and Conn's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week: GameStop, ChargePoint and Conn's\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-30 22:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/30/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>My \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week didn't pan out. All three investments I figured would be in for a rough few trading days moved sharply higher. The three names I thought were going to move ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/30/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CONN":"科恩","CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/30/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2239151510","content_text":"My \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week didn't pan out. All three investments I figured would be in for a rough few trading days moved sharply higher. The three names I thought were going to move lower for the week -- Alibaba, Tesla, and Nordstrom -- finished up 8%, 14%, and 25%, respectively, averaging out to a 15.7% gain. Ouch!The S&P 500 soared 6.6% for the week, but naturally the stocks I figured would fare worse did not. I was wrong, but I have still been right in 22 of the past 32 weeks.I see GameStop (GME 6.81%), ChargePoint (CHPT 13.89%), and Conn's (CONN -1.53%) as stocks you may want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.Image source: Getty Images.GameStopThe original meme stock is rolling again. Shares of the video game retailer soared 54% -- yes, 54% -- in the last three trading days. What can possibly get in the way of a meme stock mowing down its short sellers? Earnings season. GameStop shares have declined the trading day after reporting earnings in 11 of the past 14 quarters. Some of the slides have been fairly substantial, even last year when GameStop was off to the races. The retailer will peel back the curtain on its fiscal first quarter results on Wednesday afternoon.GameStop's performance when it has fresh financials to put out has been sobering. It has posted a larger-than-expected loss for three consecutive quarters. The $1.32 billion analysts are forecasting in revenue is a small year-over-year increase, but 15% below its top-line results three years ago in its last pre-pandemic fiscal first quarter. More importantly, the stock was in the single digits at the time.GameStop is making some interesting moves in NFTs and crypto, but those markets have also been hit hard in recent months. GameStop is going to need a strong report to justify last week's gains. History tells us that you probably don't want to bet on that.ChargePointThere's no doubt that the electric-vehicle market will have years of explosive growth, but it's probably too early to bet on the growing number of companies that are providing charging stations. It could be a race to the bottom, and players building out their networks now may never turn a profit. Analysts don't see ChargePoint in the black until 2026, and by then the market will probably be far more cutthroat than it is now.ChargePoint reports fresh financials after Tuesday's market close. Momentum hasn't been kind. It has posted larger losses than analysts were targeting in back-to-back quarters. Wall Street pros have been widening their expected deficits for the quarter it will discuss on Tuesday as well as the current fiscal year.Conn'sLet's close out the list with yet another name reporting quarterly results this week. Wednesday morning is when Conn's steps up to the plate. The big-box retailer that sells furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics could be in for a rough financial update. We've already seen a few retailers warn that guests have been shifting their spending away form big-ticket home items. Conn's also had the problematic distinction of missing Wall Street estimates on both ends of its income statement last time out.The stock tumbled 26% in the four trading days following its last report. Is there any reason to expect that Conn's will fare any better in a climate that has grown even more challenging? It could be a tough week for the retailer.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in GameStop, ChargePoint, or Conn's this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933520845,"gmtCreate":1662332196788,"gmtModify":1676537035879,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933520845","repostId":"1114052367","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114052367","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662260377,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114052367?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-04 10:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: US Market Will be Closed for Labor Day on Monday, 5 September 2022 EDT","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114052367","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Dear Valued Client,US Labor Day is around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 5 Se","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Dear Valued Client,</p><p>US Labor Day is around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 5 September 2022 EDT. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/617f2a63df7eacd3e0db4c21d33077ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Happy investing!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US Market Will be Closed for Labor Day on Monday, 5 September 2022 EDT</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US Market Will be Closed for Labor Day on Monday, 5 September 2022 EDT\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-04 10:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Dear Valued Client,</p><p>US Labor Day is around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 5 September 2022 EDT. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/617f2a63df7eacd3e0db4c21d33077ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Happy investing!</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114052367","content_text":"Dear Valued Client,US Labor Day is around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 5 September 2022 EDT. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.Happy investing!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077439637,"gmtCreate":1658550417829,"gmtModify":1676536176116,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077439637","repostId":"2253065181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071065155,"gmtCreate":1657431211877,"gmtModify":1676536007496,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071065155","repostId":"1116439526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116439526","pubTimestamp":1657425774,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116439526?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-10 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s China Sales Increase Provides Little Substance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116439526","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Don't letTesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA) latest China sales report fool you. This stock still has a long way to","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Don&#39;t let<b>Tesla&#39;s</b>(NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) latest China sales report fool you. This stock still has a long way to drop!</li><li>Tesla&#39;s broad-based sales are declining for the first time in two years.</li><li>The U.S. Treasury yield curve implies that contractionary monetary policies could wane on durable goods.</li><li>Tesla is overvalued and exhibits unfavorable beta sensitivity.</li></ul><p><b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) surprised the market with its June preliminary deliveries report, which unveiled a 1.42x month-over-month increase in Chinese regional sales. Regionally, the electric vehicle giant sold more than 78,000 vehicles last month, a 1.35x year-over-year increase. Many investors are likely to jump on a recovery play as the company’s sales recovery could be misinterpreted for early-stage momentum. However, it’s necessary to recognize that Tesla’s China sales could be a temporary uptick as regional political risk remains elevated. In addition, TSLA stock has significant valuation issues, causing the current market environment to act unkindly toward it. Moreover, Tesla’s beta sensitivity means that it could be one of the major losers if a bear market persists.</p><p>Generally speaking, I believe TSLA stock is overhyped and set for further declines. Let’s dive deeper into it!</p><p><b>Tesla’s Prospective Sales</b></p><p>Investors shouldn’t be overwhelmed by TSLA’s latest China sales surge. Much of the sales have to do with the supply-side, where factories were allowed to produce again after certain pandemic restrictions were lifted. As such, sales proliferated. Additionally, Chinese pandemic lockdown policies have been inconsistent, to say the least. Thus, the question beckons whether Tesla’s China sales are sustainable in the long haul.</p><p>Furthermore, Tesla’s broad-based sales are taking a dip. The firm’s second-quarter sales report conveyed a decline in quarterly sales for the first time in two years. Tesla produced 258,000 vehicles in the quarter and delivered 254,659, reconciling to a 17.9% year-over-year decrease. Although much of the firm’s receding sales figure was down to production constraints, there’s much reason to believe that the economic climate is taking its toll on consumers.</p><p>I want to elaborate on the economy and what it means for TSLA stock. The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve implies that interest rates could settle above the 3% level before declining again. This means that the leading consumer economy in the world will be subject to contractionary monetary policies, which could see global consumer spending power wane. Moreover, the contraction of economic growth will likely affect the automotive industry as durable goods sales negatively correlate with rising interest rates. As such, Tesla could see its five-year compound annual growth rate of 48.72% retrace to a growth trend more stationary to gross domestic product growth soon.</p><p><b>Price Level Concerns With TSLA Stock</b></p><p>Using relative valuation metrics to assess growth stocks usually isn’t prudent. Nonetheless, whenever a bear market appears, it is probable that risk-averse investors will sell their overvalued assets first. TSLA stock is trading at11.29xits sales, 52.32x its cash flow, and 77.09x its earnings. Thus, it is safe to say that we’re looking at an overvalued stock here.</p><p>Additionally, TSLA stock’s high beta status could coalesce with its poor valuation metrics to cause a tremendous drawdown. Tesla’s beta coefficient of 2.13 means that it exhibits excess sensitivity to the broader market, which is exactly what you do not want in a bear market.</p><p>So, all matters considered, I think TSLA stock is a strong sell!</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s China Sales Increase Provides Little Substance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s China Sales Increase Provides Little Substance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-10 12:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/category/todays-market/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Don't letTesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA) latest China sales report fool you. This stock still has a long way to drop!Tesla's broad-based sales are declining for the first time in two years.The U.S. Treasury ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/category/todays-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/category/todays-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116439526","content_text":"Don't letTesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA) latest China sales report fool you. This stock still has a long way to drop!Tesla's broad-based sales are declining for the first time in two years.The U.S. Treasury yield curve implies that contractionary monetary policies could wane on durable goods.Tesla is overvalued and exhibits unfavorable beta sensitivity.Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) surprised the market with its June preliminary deliveries report, which unveiled a 1.42x month-over-month increase in Chinese regional sales. Regionally, the electric vehicle giant sold more than 78,000 vehicles last month, a 1.35x year-over-year increase. Many investors are likely to jump on a recovery play as the company’s sales recovery could be misinterpreted for early-stage momentum. However, it’s necessary to recognize that Tesla’s China sales could be a temporary uptick as regional political risk remains elevated. In addition, TSLA stock has significant valuation issues, causing the current market environment to act unkindly toward it. Moreover, Tesla’s beta sensitivity means that it could be one of the major losers if a bear market persists.Generally speaking, I believe TSLA stock is overhyped and set for further declines. Let’s dive deeper into it!Tesla’s Prospective SalesInvestors shouldn’t be overwhelmed by TSLA’s latest China sales surge. Much of the sales have to do with the supply-side, where factories were allowed to produce again after certain pandemic restrictions were lifted. As such, sales proliferated. Additionally, Chinese pandemic lockdown policies have been inconsistent, to say the least. Thus, the question beckons whether Tesla’s China sales are sustainable in the long haul.Furthermore, Tesla’s broad-based sales are taking a dip. The firm’s second-quarter sales report conveyed a decline in quarterly sales for the first time in two years. Tesla produced 258,000 vehicles in the quarter and delivered 254,659, reconciling to a 17.9% year-over-year decrease. Although much of the firm’s receding sales figure was down to production constraints, there’s much reason to believe that the economic climate is taking its toll on consumers.I want to elaborate on the economy and what it means for TSLA stock. The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve implies that interest rates could settle above the 3% level before declining again. This means that the leading consumer economy in the world will be subject to contractionary monetary policies, which could see global consumer spending power wane. Moreover, the contraction of economic growth will likely affect the automotive industry as durable goods sales negatively correlate with rising interest rates. As such, Tesla could see its five-year compound annual growth rate of 48.72% retrace to a growth trend more stationary to gross domestic product growth soon.Price Level Concerns With TSLA StockUsing relative valuation metrics to assess growth stocks usually isn’t prudent. Nonetheless, whenever a bear market appears, it is probable that risk-averse investors will sell their overvalued assets first. TSLA stock is trading at11.29xits sales, 52.32x its cash flow, and 77.09x its earnings. Thus, it is safe to say that we’re looking at an overvalued stock here.Additionally, TSLA stock’s high beta status could coalesce with its poor valuation metrics to cause a tremendous drawdown. Tesla’s beta coefficient of 2.13 means that it exhibits excess sensitivity to the broader market, which is exactly what you do not want in a bear market.So, all matters considered, I think TSLA stock is a strong sell!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025643238,"gmtCreate":1653692166524,"gmtModify":1676535326040,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025643238","repostId":"2238387186","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022864397,"gmtCreate":1653519499819,"gmtModify":1676535294650,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022864397","repostId":"1182828365","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182828365","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1653517648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182828365?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-26 06:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies As Fed Minutes Meet Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182828365","media":"Reuters","summary":"Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes 'likely'Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlookNvidia Q2 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes &#39;likely&#39;</li><li>Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlook</li><li>Nvidia Q2 revenue forecast falls short of expectations</li><li>Indexes up: Dow 0.60%, S&amp;P 0.95%, Nasdaq 1.51%</li></ul><p>May 25 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed higher Wednesday, boosted after minutes from the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest monetary policy meeting showed policymakers unanimously felt the U.S. economy was very strong as they grappled with reining in inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s May meeting, which culminated in a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed funds target rate - the biggest jump in 22 years - showed most of the committee&#39;s members judged that further such rate hikes would &#34;likely be appropriate&#34; at its upcoming June and July meetings.</p><p>&#34;The uniformity of opinion is a good thing,&#34; said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. &#34;There&#39;s a lack of uncertainty of what needs to be done in the near-term.&#34;</p><p>&#34;By the time (the Fed) gets to September, they will have plenty of economic data to make their move from there, so they continue to maintain optionality,&#34; Mayfield added.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes gyrated earlier in the day amid increasing jitters stemming from business and consumer surveys, economic data and corporate earnings reports suggesting a cooling American economy - even as the Fed prepares to toss a bucket of cold water on it to tackle decades-high inflation.</p><p>Fears that overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed could tip the economy into recession despite evidence that inflation peaked in March has fueled those concerns.</p><p>&#34;There’s some credence to the idea that inflation is doing (the Fed’s) job for them,&#34; Mayfield said. &#34;There’s already a cooling occurring, and financial conditions have tightened over the last month because of dollar strength and equity market weakness.&#34;</p><p>On Thursday, the Commerce Department is due to release its second take on first-quarter GDP, which analysts expect to slow a slightly shallower contraction than the 1.4% quarterly annualized drop originally reported.</p><p>The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will follow on Friday, which will provide further clues regarding consumer spending and whether inflation peaked in March, as other indicators have suggested.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 191.66 points, or 0.6%, to 32,120.28, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 37.25 points, or 0.95%, to 3,978.73 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 170.29 points, or 1.51%, to 11,434.74.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 rose, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the pack with a gain of 2.8%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Inc </a> provided the strongest lift to the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq, rising 2.6% and 4.9%, respectively.</p><p>Department store operator <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom Inc </a> surged 14.0% on the heels of its upbeat annual profit and revenue forecasts.</p><p>Fast-food chain <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEN\">Wendy&#39;s Co</a> jumped 9.8% after a regulatory filing revealed that shareholder Nelson Peltz was considering a potential takeover bid for the company.</p><p>Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia Corp</a> fell more than 7% in after-hours trading after the company&#39;s second quarter revenue forecast missed expectations.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 255 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.19 billion shares, compared with the 13.27 billion-share average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies As Fed Minutes Meet Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Rallies As Fed Minutes Meet Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-26 06:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes &#39;likely&#39;</li><li>Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlook</li><li>Nvidia Q2 revenue forecast falls short of expectations</li><li>Indexes up: Dow 0.60%, S&amp;P 0.95%, Nasdaq 1.51%</li></ul><p>May 25 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed higher Wednesday, boosted after minutes from the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest monetary policy meeting showed policymakers unanimously felt the U.S. economy was very strong as they grappled with reining in inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s May meeting, which culminated in a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed funds target rate - the biggest jump in 22 years - showed most of the committee&#39;s members judged that further such rate hikes would &#34;likely be appropriate&#34; at its upcoming June and July meetings.</p><p>&#34;The uniformity of opinion is a good thing,&#34; said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. &#34;There&#39;s a lack of uncertainty of what needs to be done in the near-term.&#34;</p><p>&#34;By the time (the Fed) gets to September, they will have plenty of economic data to make their move from there, so they continue to maintain optionality,&#34; Mayfield added.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes gyrated earlier in the day amid increasing jitters stemming from business and consumer surveys, economic data and corporate earnings reports suggesting a cooling American economy - even as the Fed prepares to toss a bucket of cold water on it to tackle decades-high inflation.</p><p>Fears that overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed could tip the economy into recession despite evidence that inflation peaked in March has fueled those concerns.</p><p>&#34;There’s some credence to the idea that inflation is doing (the Fed’s) job for them,&#34; Mayfield said. &#34;There’s already a cooling occurring, and financial conditions have tightened over the last month because of dollar strength and equity market weakness.&#34;</p><p>On Thursday, the Commerce Department is due to release its second take on first-quarter GDP, which analysts expect to slow a slightly shallower contraction than the 1.4% quarterly annualized drop originally reported.</p><p>The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will follow on Friday, which will provide further clues regarding consumer spending and whether inflation peaked in March, as other indicators have suggested.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 191.66 points, or 0.6%, to 32,120.28, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) gained 37.25 points, or 0.95%, to 3,978.73 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 170.29 points, or 1.51%, to 11,434.74.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 rose, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the pack with a gain of 2.8%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com Inc </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Inc </a> provided the strongest lift to the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq, rising 2.6% and 4.9%, respectively.</p><p>Department store operator <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom Inc </a> surged 14.0% on the heels of its upbeat annual profit and revenue forecasts.</p><p>Fast-food chain <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEN\">Wendy&#39;s Co</a> jumped 9.8% after a regulatory filing revealed that shareholder Nelson Peltz was considering a potential takeover bid for the company.</p><p>Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia Corp</a> fell more than 7% in after-hours trading after the company&#39;s second quarter revenue forecast missed expectations.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 255 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.19 billion shares, compared with the 13.27 billion-share average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","NVDA":"英伟达",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182828365","content_text":"Fed minutes: future 50-bp rate hikes 'likely'Nordstrom climbs after raising profit outlookNvidia Q2 revenue forecast falls short of expectationsIndexes up: Dow 0.60%, S&P 0.95%, Nasdaq 1.51%May 25 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed higher Wednesday, boosted after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting showed policymakers unanimously felt the U.S. economy was very strong as they grappled with reining in inflation without triggering a recession.The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's May meeting, which culminated in a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed funds target rate - the biggest jump in 22 years - showed most of the committee's members judged that further such rate hikes would \"likely be appropriate\" at its upcoming June and July meetings.\"The uniformity of opinion is a good thing,\" said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. \"There's a lack of uncertainty of what needs to be done in the near-term.\"\"By the time (the Fed) gets to September, they will have plenty of economic data to make their move from there, so they continue to maintain optionality,\" Mayfield added.All three major U.S. stock indexes gyrated earlier in the day amid increasing jitters stemming from business and consumer surveys, economic data and corporate earnings reports suggesting a cooling American economy - even as the Fed prepares to toss a bucket of cold water on it to tackle decades-high inflation.Fears that overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed could tip the economy into recession despite evidence that inflation peaked in March has fueled those concerns.\"There’s some credence to the idea that inflation is doing (the Fed’s) job for them,\" Mayfield said. \"There’s already a cooling occurring, and financial conditions have tightened over the last month because of dollar strength and equity market weakness.\"On Thursday, the Commerce Department is due to release its second take on first-quarter GDP, which analysts expect to slow a slightly shallower contraction than the 1.4% quarterly annualized drop originally reported.The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will follow on Friday, which will provide further clues regarding consumer spending and whether inflation peaked in March, as other indicators have suggested.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 191.66 points, or 0.6%, to 32,120.28, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 37.25 points, or 0.95%, to 3,978.73 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 170.29 points, or 1.51%, to 11,434.74.Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 rose, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the pack with a gain of 2.8%.Amazon.com Inc  and Tesla Inc  provided the strongest lift to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, rising 2.6% and 4.9%, respectively.Department store operator Nordstrom Inc  surged 14.0% on the heels of its upbeat annual profit and revenue forecasts.Fast-food chain Wendy's Co jumped 9.8% after a regulatory filing revealed that shareholder Nelson Peltz was considering a potential takeover bid for the company.Shares of Nvidia Corp fell more than 7% in after-hours trading after the company's second quarter revenue forecast missed expectations.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 255 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.19 billion shares, compared with the 13.27 billion-share average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}