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2021-07-22

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2021-07-21

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Apple has been slapped in the face: its iPhone has been compromised by spyware.

2021-07-13

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2021-07-12

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Tencent Music "spins off" Kuwo

2021-07-12

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2021-07-09

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Netflix's Q2 earnings preview: Will the "terrifying" scene happen again?

2021-06-30

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Dingdong Maicai set its IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range at $23.5 per ADS.

2021-06-30

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Full Truck Alliance: A Victory for Industrial Routers

2021-06-16

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The United States is flooded with gold, so why are risky assets "stagflation"?

2021-06-16

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19:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple has been slapped in the face: its iPhone has been compromised by spyware.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153439276","media":"CSDN","summary":"上周末，国外多家知名媒体共同披露了一款名为“飞马（Pegasus）”的手机间谍软件——由以色列软件监控公司 NSO 开发，用于监视记者、律师和政治家等较有影响力的人。\n据报道，“飞马”一旦侵入手机，就","content":"<p>Last weekend, several well-known foreign media outlets jointly disclosed a mobile phone spyware called \"Pegasus\"—developed by the Israeli software monitoring company NSO, used to monitor influential people such as journalists, lawyers, and politicians.</p><p>According to reports, once \"Pegasus\" hacks into a mobile phone, it can extract text messages, photos, and emails without the user's knowledge, record calls, and remotely turn on the phone's microphone and camera, posing a great threat to user privacy. The Pegasus intrusion covered more than 50 countries around the world, and up to 50,000 people may be monitored.</p><p>The iPhone, known for its \"security,\" has also been \"breached\" this time: according to the foreign organization Amnesty International,<b>Even an iPhone 12 running iOS 14.6 can be compromised by Pegasus without even needing to click a link.</b>。</p><p>I. iMessage vulnerabilities become a breakthrough for \"Pegasus\"</p><p>As mentioned at the beginning, NSO, the developer of Pegasus, is a software monitoring company that mainly sells software to government agencies and law enforcement agencies, claiming to use it to combat crimes such as terrorism, car bombings, and drug trafficking.</p><p>The reason why NSO's \"Pegasus\" spyware has caused such a huge international uproar is that analysis has revealed that \"Pegasus\" monitors the whereabouts of people from all walks of life around the world: in \"Pegasus's\" list of 50,000 potential monitored numbers, the identities of more than 1,000 numbers have been confirmed, including 189 journalists, more than 600 politicians and government officials, 65 business executives, 85 prominent human rights activists, and several heads of state and prime ministers.</p><p>Generally, this type of spyware sends users a malicious link that indicates \"infection\" when clicked. Therefore, users can effectively avoid such risks by not clicking on unknown links. However, investigators have found that the current \"Pegasus\" is clearly an upgraded version—<b>Even if users don't click on the link, \"Pegasus\" can still secretly hack into the target's phone and conduct various espionage and surveillance activities.</b>。 Therefore, The Guardian believes that Pegasus may be the \"most powerful spyware\" to date: once successfully installed, the phone becomes a \"24-hour surveillance device\".</p><p>According to Amnesty International's testing and investigation, thousands of iPhones have been listed as potential targets for Pegasus, but it is currently impossible to confirm how many have been successfully hacked. But Danna Ingleton, Deputy Director of Technology at Amnesty International, believes this is enough to draw attention: \"Thousands of iPhones may have been compromised. This is a global problem—everyone is at risk, even those like...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Even such tech giants cannot cope with the current large-scale surveillance.</p><p>Although there are many ways to hack an iPhone, most experts believe that...<b>The iPhone, which has always been touted as \"secure,\" has a major vulnerability: iMessage.</b>。</p><p>Ironically, Apple also attempted to enhance iMessage security earlier this year by creating a feature called BlastDoor to filter out suspicious messages entering the phone. Currently, this measure does not appear to guarantee the security of iPhone users.</p><p>In response, Bill Marczak, a researcher at the Citizen Lab, a cybersecurity analyst department at the University of Toronto, said, \"Pegasus can hack into the latest version of Apple's iOS via iMessage, so it's clear that NSO has defeated BlastDoor.\"</p><p>Patrick Wardle, founder of Mac security development company Objective-See, also believes that Apple's security features, which it has always been proud of, are a double-edged sword: \"iMessage is end-to-end encrypted, which means that no one will discover the vulnerabilities you introduce, making it an excellent intrusion environment for attackers.\"</p><p>This opaque system makes it difficult for researchers to examine the internal workings of the iPhone. “Unless you’re extremely unlucky, the software an attacker has installed on your phone will never be detected,” Patrick Wardle added.</p><p>II. Apple condemns \"Pegasus,\" while NSO completely denies it.</p><p>In response to this incident, Apple, while emphasizing iPhone security, also publicly condemned the Pegasus cyberattack: \"Apple unequivocally condemns cyberattacks targeting journalists, human rights activists, and others seeking to make the world a better place. For over a decade, Apple has been at the forefront of security innovation, and therefore, security researchers unanimously agree that the iPhone is the most secure mobile device on the market.\"</p><p>Furthermore, Apple believes that spyware attacks like \"Pegasus\" are very complex, costing millions of dollars to develop, and therefore typically have a short \"shelf life\" and are targeted at specific individuals.<b>It will not pose a threat to the vast majority of Apple users.</b>。 However, Apple also stated, \"We will continue to work hard to protect all customers and continuously add new protective measures to their devices and data.\"</p><p>Meanwhile, NSO, the developer of Pegasus, completely denied the allegations, accusing the media reports of being \"full of erroneous assumptions and unverified theories,\" criticizing them for \"exaggerating,\" \"lacking factual basis,\" and questioning the reliability and authenticity of their information sources. NSO also issued a statement in response: \"Pegasus is software specifically designed to combat criminals and terrorists. We will only sell Pegasus to military, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies with good human rights records.\"</p><p>3. Confirm whether your phone is being monitored by \"Pegasus\".</p><p>Although, as Apple claims, Pegasus poses no threat to most ordinary users, Amnesty International has developed a tool called the Mobile Verification Toolkit (MVT) to help users confirm whether their phones have been monitored by Pegasus. It is currently available for Android and iOS systems. However, Amnesty International added that MVT is more accurate in detecting iPhones.</p><p>(MVT's GitHub address: https://github.com/AmnestyTech/investigations/tree/master/2021-07-18_nso)</p><p>According to reports, MVT will allow users to obtain a full iPhone backup (a complete system dump if your phone is jailbroken), and once the program is launched, MVT will scan the user's iPhone backup files for any evidence of compromise. This process takes about a minute or two, and then several files are generated in a folder containing the scan results. If MVT detects signs that the phone is suspected of being compromised, it will explain this in the output file.</p><p>However, it should be emphasized that MVT test results are not 100% accurate and may give false positives.</p>","source":"lsy1578046468581","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple has been slapped in the face: its iPhone has been compromised by spyware.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple has been slapped in the face: its iPhone has been compromised by spyware.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CSDN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 19:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last weekend, several well-known foreign media outlets jointly disclosed a mobile phone spyware called \"Pegasus\"—developed by the Israeli software monitoring company NSO, used to monitor influential people such as journalists, lawyers, and politicians.</p><p>According to reports, once \"Pegasus\" hacks into a mobile phone, it can extract text messages, photos, and emails without the user's knowledge, record calls, and remotely turn on the phone's microphone and camera, posing a great threat to user privacy. The Pegasus intrusion covered more than 50 countries around the world, and up to 50,000 people may be monitored.</p><p>The iPhone, known for its \"security,\" has also been \"breached\" this time: according to the foreign organization Amnesty International,<b>Even an iPhone 12 running iOS 14.6 can be compromised by Pegasus without even needing to click a link.</b>。</p><p>I. iMessage vulnerabilities become a breakthrough for \"Pegasus\"</p><p>As mentioned at the beginning, NSO, the developer of Pegasus, is a software monitoring company that mainly sells software to government agencies and law enforcement agencies, claiming to use it to combat crimes such as terrorism, car bombings, and drug trafficking.</p><p>The reason why NSO's \"Pegasus\" spyware has caused such a huge international uproar is that analysis has revealed that \"Pegasus\" monitors the whereabouts of people from all walks of life around the world: in \"Pegasus's\" list of 50,000 potential monitored numbers, the identities of more than 1,000 numbers have been confirmed, including 189 journalists, more than 600 politicians and government officials, 65 business executives, 85 prominent human rights activists, and several heads of state and prime ministers.</p><p>Generally, this type of spyware sends users a malicious link that indicates \"infection\" when clicked. Therefore, users can effectively avoid such risks by not clicking on unknown links. However, investigators have found that the current \"Pegasus\" is clearly an upgraded version—<b>Even if users don't click on the link, \"Pegasus\" can still secretly hack into the target's phone and conduct various espionage and surveillance activities.</b>。 Therefore, The Guardian believes that Pegasus may be the \"most powerful spyware\" to date: once successfully installed, the phone becomes a \"24-hour surveillance device\".</p><p>According to Amnesty International's testing and investigation, thousands of iPhones have been listed as potential targets for Pegasus, but it is currently impossible to confirm how many have been successfully hacked. But Danna Ingleton, Deputy Director of Technology at Amnesty International, believes this is enough to draw attention: \"Thousands of iPhones may have been compromised. This is a global problem—everyone is at risk, even those like...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Even such tech giants cannot cope with the current large-scale surveillance.</p><p>Although there are many ways to hack an iPhone, most experts believe that...<b>The iPhone, which has always been touted as \"secure,\" has a major vulnerability: iMessage.</b>。</p><p>Ironically, Apple also attempted to enhance iMessage security earlier this year by creating a feature called BlastDoor to filter out suspicious messages entering the phone. Currently, this measure does not appear to guarantee the security of iPhone users.</p><p>In response, Bill Marczak, a researcher at the Citizen Lab, a cybersecurity analyst department at the University of Toronto, said, \"Pegasus can hack into the latest version of Apple's iOS via iMessage, so it's clear that NSO has defeated BlastDoor.\"</p><p>Patrick Wardle, founder of Mac security development company Objective-See, also believes that Apple's security features, which it has always been proud of, are a double-edged sword: \"iMessage is end-to-end encrypted, which means that no one will discover the vulnerabilities you introduce, making it an excellent intrusion environment for attackers.\"</p><p>This opaque system makes it difficult for researchers to examine the internal workings of the iPhone. “Unless you’re extremely unlucky, the software an attacker has installed on your phone will never be detected,” Patrick Wardle added.</p><p>II. Apple condemns \"Pegasus,\" while NSO completely denies it.</p><p>In response to this incident, Apple, while emphasizing iPhone security, also publicly condemned the Pegasus cyberattack: \"Apple unequivocally condemns cyberattacks targeting journalists, human rights activists, and others seeking to make the world a better place. For over a decade, Apple has been at the forefront of security innovation, and therefore, security researchers unanimously agree that the iPhone is the most secure mobile device on the market.\"</p><p>Furthermore, Apple believes that spyware attacks like \"Pegasus\" are very complex, costing millions of dollars to develop, and therefore typically have a short \"shelf life\" and are targeted at specific individuals.<b>It will not pose a threat to the vast majority of Apple users.</b>。 However, Apple also stated, \"We will continue to work hard to protect all customers and continuously add new protective measures to their devices and data.\"</p><p>Meanwhile, NSO, the developer of Pegasus, completely denied the allegations, accusing the media reports of being \"full of erroneous assumptions and unverified theories,\" criticizing them for \"exaggerating,\" \"lacking factual basis,\" and questioning the reliability and authenticity of their information sources. NSO also issued a statement in response: \"Pegasus is software specifically designed to combat criminals and terrorists. We will only sell Pegasus to military, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies with good human rights records.\"</p><p>3. Confirm whether your phone is being monitored by \"Pegasus\".</p><p>Although, as Apple claims, Pegasus poses no threat to most ordinary users, Amnesty International has developed a tool called the Mobile Verification Toolkit (MVT) to help users confirm whether their phones have been monitored by Pegasus. It is currently available for Android and iOS systems. However, Amnesty International added that MVT is more accurate in detecting iPhones.</p><p>(MVT's GitHub address: https://github.com/AmnestyTech/investigations/tree/master/2021-07-18_nso)</p><p>According to reports, MVT will allow users to obtain a full iPhone backup (a complete system dump if your phone is jailbroken), and once the program is launched, MVT will scan the user's iPhone backup files for any evidence of compromise. This process takes about a minute or two, and then several files are generated in a folder containing the scan results. If MVT detects signs that the phone is suspected of being compromised, it will explain this in the output file.</p><p>However, it should be emphasized that MVT test results are not 100% accurate and may give false positives.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/442749.html\">CSDN</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/566a41f1b3e25a62a4a31ef527df0ac4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/442749.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153439276","content_text":"上周末，国外多家知名媒体共同披露了一款名为“飞马（Pegasus）”的手机间谍软件——由以色列软件监控公司 NSO 开发，用于监视记者、律师和政治家等较有影响力的人。\n据报道，“飞马”一旦侵入手机，就可以在使用者不知情的情况下，提取短信、照片、电子邮件，对通话进行录音，远程开启手机的麦克风和摄像头，对用户隐私造成极大威胁。此次“飞马”的入侵范围更是遍布全球 50 多个国家，可能被监控人数高达 5 万。\n而一向以“安全”著称的 iPhone 这次也被“攻破”了：据国外机构 Amnesty International 发现，哪怕是 iOS 14.6 系统的 iPhone 12，“飞马”都可以入侵，甚至都不需要点击链接。\n一、iMessage 漏洞成“飞马”的突破口\n如开头所说，“飞马”的开发商 NSO 是一家软件监控公司，主要向政府机构、执法部门出售软件，号称以此打击恐怖主义、汽车爆炸及贩毒等犯罪行为。\n之所以此次 NSO 的“飞马”间谍软件会在国际引起轩然大波，是因为分析发现，“飞马”监控了全球各界人士的行踪：在“飞马”的 5 万个潜在被监控者号码清单中，1000 多个号码的使用者身份已确认，其中包括 189 名记者、600 多名政界人士和政府官员、65 名企业高管、85 名著名人权活动家和多位国家元首及总理。\n一般来说，这种间谍软件都会向用户发送一条点击即“中招”的恶意链接，因此用户只要不点击未知链接就能有效避免此类隐患。但调查专家发现，目前的“飞马”显然是升级版本——即使用户不点击链接，“飞马”依旧可以神不知鬼不觉地入侵目标对象的手机，进行各种间谍监控活动。因此，《卫报》认为“飞马”可能是迄今为止“最强的间谍软件”：一旦成功安装，手机就会成为“24 小时监控设备”。\n经 Amnesty International 测试调查，有数千部 iPhone 被列为“飞马”的潜在目标，但目前无法确认具体有多少已被成功入侵。但 Amnesty International 技术部门副主任 Danna Ingleton 认为这已足够引起重视：“数以千计的 iPhone 可能已遭到入侵。这是一个全球性的问题——每个人都面临风险，甚至像苹果这样的科技巨头也无法应对目前的大规模监控。”\n虽然入侵 iPhone 的途径有多种，但其中大多数专家都认为，向来号称“安全”的 iPhone 有一个最大的漏洞：iMessage。\n讽刺的是，苹果今年早些时候还曾试图加强 iMessage 的安全性，创建了一个名为 BlastDoor 的功能，以筛选摒除进入手机的可疑信息。目前看来，这个举措并没有保障 iPhone 用户的安全。\n对此，多伦多大学网络安全分析师部门 Citizen Lab 的研究员 Bill Marczak 说：“'飞马'可通过 iMessage 入侵苹果最新版本的 iOS，所以很明显 NSO 击败了 BlastDoor。”\nMac 安全开发公司 Objective-See 创始人 Patrick Wardle 也认为苹果一直引以为豪的安全功能是一把双刃剑：“iMessage 是端到端加密的，这就意味着没有人会发现你引入的漏洞，对攻击者而言这简直就是绝佳的入侵环境。”\n这种不透明的制度令研究人员很难检查 iPhone 的内部情况。“除非特别不走运，不然攻击者植入在手机上的软件根本不会被发现。”Patrick Wardle 补充道。\n二、苹果谴责“飞马”，NSO 全盘否认\n针对此事，苹果在强调 iPhone 安全性的同时，还公开谴责了“飞马”的网络攻击行为：“苹果明确谴责针对记者、人权活动家和其他寻求让世界变得更美好的人的网络攻击。十多年来，苹果在安全创新方面一直处于行业领先地位，因此，安全研究人员一致认为 iPhone 是市场上最安全的移动设备。”\n此外，苹果认为“飞马”这类间谍软件的攻击非常复杂，开发成本应需数百万美元，因此“保质期”通常较短，并且针对特定的个人，不会对绝大多数的苹果用户造成威胁。不过苹果也表示：“我们将继续努力保护所有客户，不断为他们的设备和数据添加新的保护措施。”\n与此同时，“飞马”的开发公司 NSO 却对此事全盘否认，指控各家媒体的报道“充满错误的假设和未经证实的理论”，斥责他们“夸大其词”、“缺乏事实依据”，质疑他们信息来源的可靠性和真实性。NSO 为此还发布了一则声明：“‘飞马’是专门用于对抗罪犯和恐怖分子的软件，我们只会把‘飞马’出售给那些有良好人权记录的军方、执法和情报部门。”\n三、确认手机是否被“飞马”监听\n虽然如苹果所说，“飞马”不会对大多数普通用户构成威胁，但 Amnesty International 还是为此开发了名为 Mobile Verification Toolkit（MVT）的工具，以帮助用户确认自己的手机是否遭到了“飞马”的监听，目前适用于 Android 和 iOS 系统。不过 Amnesty International 补充道，MVT 对  iPhone 的检测更为准确。\n（MVT 的 GitHub 地址：https://github.com/AmnestyTech/investigations/tree/master/2021-07-18_nso）\n据介绍，MVT 将让用户获取整个 iPhone 备份（如果你的手机越狱，则进行完整的系统转储），而一旦启动程序，MVT 就会扫描用户的 iPhone 备份文件以查找任何被入侵的证据。这个过程大约需要一两分钟，然后在文件夹中生成几个文件，其中包含扫描结果。如果 MVT 发现手机疑似被入侵的迹象，会在输出的文件中说明。\n不过需要强调一点，MVT 的检测结果并非百分百准确，也会有“误报”的可能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142795145,"gmtCreate":1626174876887,"gmtModify":1703754805529,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142795145","repostId":"1187876311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146255705,"gmtCreate":1626085382007,"gmtModify":1703753025017,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146255705","repostId":"2150587497","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150587497","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626084362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150587497?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 18:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Music \"spins off\" Kuwo","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150587497","media":"界面新闻","summary":"7月9日腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称“腾讯音乐”）下发内部邮件，宣布对QQ音乐和酷我在内的业务线和相关人员进行调整。\n根据界面新闻拿到的独家信息，在本次调整中，QQ音乐业务线将成立长音频业务中心，负责Q","content":"<p><div>On July 9, Tencent Music Entertainment Group (hereinafter referred to as \"Tencent Music\") issued an internal email announcing adjustments to its business lines, including QQ Music and Kuwo, and related personnel. According to exclusive information obtained by Jiemian News, in this adjustment, QQ Music's business line will establish a Long Audio Business Center to be responsible for the product development of the QQ Music Long Audio Zone. Kuwo Music's most profitable business, \"Juxing Live,\" will be led by Xie Huan, a senior executive at Kugou Music. The commercialization of Kuwo Music's business line will be handled by Liu Xiankai, General Manager of Tencent Music's Commercial Advertising Department. Vice President of Tencent Music, Head of Kuwo's Business Line...</p><p><a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-07-12/detail-ikqciyzk5031008.d.html?vt=4\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Music \"spins off\" Kuwo</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Music \"spins off\" Kuwo\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 18:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On July 9, Tencent Music Entertainment Group (hereinafter referred to as \"Tencent Music\") issued an internal email announcing adjustments to its business lines, including QQ Music and Kuwo, and related personnel. According to exclusive information obtained by Jiemian News, in this adjustment, QQ Music's business line will establish a Long Audio Business Center to be responsible for the product development of the QQ Music Long Audio Zone. Kuwo Music's most profitable business, \"Juxing Live,\" will be led by Xie Huan, a senior executive at Kugou Music. The commercialization of Kuwo Music's business line will be handled by Liu Xiankai, General Manager of Tencent Music's Commercial Advertising Department. Vice President of Tencent Music, Head of Kuwo's Business Line...</p><p><a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-07-12/detail-ikqciyzk5031008.d.html?vt=4\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-07-12/detail-ikqciyzk5031008.d.html?vt=4\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b0e20af83068bad18f229c59bbe10fa","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-07-12/detail-ikqciyzk5031008.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150587497","content_text":"7月9日腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称“腾讯音乐”）下发内部邮件，宣布对QQ音乐和酷我在内的业务线和相关人员进行调整。\n根据界面新闻拿到的独家信息，在本次调整中，QQ音乐业务线将成立长音频业务中心，负责QQ音乐长音频专区的产品研发工作；酷我音乐旗下最赚钱的业务“聚星直播”，将交由酷狗音乐的高管谢欢领导；酷我音乐业务线的商业化业务将交给腾讯音乐商业广告部总经理刘宪凯负责。\n腾讯音乐副总裁、酷我业务线CEO史力学将兼任QQ音乐长音频业务中心的负责人，向腾讯音乐CEO梁柱直接汇报。\n本次调整既有深入整合腾讯音乐各版块业务的意图，也能缓解腾讯音乐面临的监管层政策压力。\n酷我音乐线下一位总监对界面新闻表示，将长音频业务从酷我剥离出去组建独立BU，将酷我的直播业务“聚星”交给酷狗高管领导，将酷我商业化业务交给QQ音乐的相关领导负责，“（酷我）现在的趋势就是拆分业务，整合进其它部门，缓解政策压力”。\n\n\n据界面新闻了解，史力学在内部权限很大，也是腾讯音乐长音频业务BU的实际负责人，但对外一直保持低调。\n在4月份的架构调整中，腾讯音乐曾在集团层面设立长音频业务线，与QQ音乐、酷我音乐和酷狗音乐业务线保持平行架构。长音频业务BU包含懒人听书业务，以及酷我畅听业务及相关团队。\n腾讯音乐内部一位业务中层对界面新闻表示，在集团层面的长音频业务BU之外，单独成立QQ音乐的长音频业务中心，有双保险的成分，也可以被理解为变相赛马，后续长音频业务仍然保有调整可能。\n在腾讯音乐5月8日的大调整中被委以重任的刘宪凯（腾讯音乐商业广告部总经理、QQ音乐业务线平台产品部总经理），在本次调整后，将兼任酷我音乐产品&商业化负责人，负责酷我音乐的平台产品业务、音乐收费等商业化、广告业务，同时向梁柱和史力学汇报。\n“相当于把酷我的商业化交给了集团负责”，前述总监对界面新闻表示，这也是集团层面收编业务BU商业化业务及团队的最新进展。\n酷狗副总裁、酷狗直播业务负责人谢欢，将兼任酷我直播业务的负责人，向陈琳琳（集团副总裁、酷狗业务线负责人）和史力学双向汇报。酷我业务线下聚星直播的产品技术负责人慕亚非和运营负责人苗李杰，工作关系转为向谢欢汇报。\n“让酷狗的人来管我们的直播，内部都在讨论，酷我是不是要被拆掉了”，酷我业务线内容板块的一位资深员工对界面新闻表示。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146069182,"gmtCreate":1626044772546,"gmtModify":1703752125865,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146069182","repostId":"2150304740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141351032,"gmtCreate":1625839850026,"gmtModify":1703749634023,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141351032","repostId":"1153517973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153517973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625833888,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153517973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 20:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix's Q2 earnings preview: Will the \"terrifying\" scene happen again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153517973","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月9日消息，新增用户可谓是Netflix, Inc. 的恐怖数据，在Q1，因为新增用户增长不及预期，市场完全忽略财报业绩超预期，财报发布的盘后直接将股价打下10个点，使得尽管奈飞Q2股价保持上行，但","content":"<p>July 9th news: The number of new users can be described as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix, Inc.</a>The terrifying data came in Q1. Because new user growth fell short of expectations, the market completely ignored the better-than-expected financial results. After the earnings report was released, the stock price dropped by 10 percentage points. As a result, although Netflix's stock price continued to rise in Q2, it still did not return to the $549.57 it reached on the eve of the first quarter report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c5c7fe1d4932c67ef807197daa3dce\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the US stock market closed on July 20, Netflix will release its Q2 2021 financial report. Will this \"terrifying\" scene happen again? What are some key points worth noting?</p><p><b>First Quarter Performance Review</b></p><p>Netflix's earnings and revenue in the first quarter of this year both exceeded market expectations, but user growth declined sharply, far exceeding expectations. As a result, Netflix's stock price plummeted after the earnings release, falling by more than 10% rapidly, and at one point dropping to 13%.</p><p>Financial reports show that Netflix's revenue in the first quarter was $7.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, exceeding market expectations of $7.14 billion; Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.75, up 139% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $2.98; Net income was $1.707 billion, up 141% year-on-year from $709 million in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03edbbf55e3473625b74db2f5593e02a\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Netflix's gross profit margin hit a record high of 46% in the first quarter, mainly due to content production delays and lower costs. The market expects gross profit margin to decline to 44% in the second quarter.</p><p>What gave the stock price a wake-up call in the first quarter was the number of new users mentioned earlier. The financial report shows that<b>Netflix's net increase in global paying subscribers in the first quarter was only 3.98 million, nearly 37% lower than the market expectation of 6.29 million, and nearly 75% lower than the net increase in paying subscribers in the first quarter of last year.</b>The market expects the net increase in users to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e98b98696cd8ec1444f7eb1e423d54e2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The main reason for the lower-than-expected user growth is that the rapid growth in 2020 overdrawn future user growth, as well as the growth in offline activities brought about by the economic recovery.</p><p><b>What factors are worth noting in the second quarter:</b></p><p><b>1. Can new users return to high-speed growth?</b></p><p>Netflix attributes the weak growth in new users in the first quarter to the base effect and the impact of the pandemic on content production, or rather, the rapid growth in 2020 overdrawn future user growth, as well as the growth in offline activities brought about by the economic recovery.</p><p>Will this situation improve in the second quarter? In the short term, due to the still high level of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic globally, coupled with the inability to fully recover drama production,<b>Therefore, the company's user growth still faces uncertainty in the short term.</b>However, thanks to its massive content barriers and user experience, the company's overall user retention rate is still improving, and user stickiness remains good. The company has also continued to improve its ARPPU by raising subscription prices and improving its account system. In the first quarter, the company's overall ARPPU was US$11.50 (+6.1%), a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>In the long run, the general trend of users migrating from traditional media to streaming media platforms has not changed.</b>Netflix will continue to benefit from this major trend. The peak number of TV households worldwide (excluding China) is close to 800 million, which is still very ample compared to Netflix's 200 million subscribers.</p><p><b>2. Competition in streaming media is fierce, and Netflix continues to improve its content production capabilities.</b></p><p><b>Content production saw a significant increase in effort in the second quarter.</b>In late June, Netflix announced a partnership with Amblin Partners, led by globally renowned director Steven Spielberg. According to the agreement, Amblin expects to produce at least two films for Netflix each year, but the specific start date has not yet been determined. Spielberg may even personally oversee some of the films, and Netflix is expected to fund some of them. Amblin's previous film, \"Green Book,\" won the 2019 Academy Award for Best Picture.</p><p>In addition, Netflix has demonstrated its ambitions in the fields of virtual reality and gaming. Recently, Netflix announced that it has partnered with a powerful...<a href=\"https://c.duomai.com/track.php?site_id=242986&euid=&t=https%3A%2F%2Flist.jd.com%2Flist.html%3Fcat%3D737%2C794%2C798%26ev%3D4155_76344%26sort%3Dsort_rank_asc%26trans%3D1%26JL%3D2_1_0%23J_crumbsBar\" target=\"_blank\">television</a>Producer Shonda Rhimes reached a new agreement. The series \"Bridgerton,\" produced by Remus, has been a hit on Netflix. According to Netflix, Bridgerton is the most-watched series in the streaming platform's history.</p><p>This new deal strengthens Netflix's partnership with Remus in several ways, such as opening the door to feature films and investing in Remus's corporate programs to diversify Hollywood before and after the camera.<b>Netflix also stated that its partnership with Remus includes exclusive opportunities to produce and distribute potential games and virtual reality content.</b></p><p><b>In the long run, CITIC Securities stated that Netflix's competitive advantage remains clear.</b>The market is generally concerned about the impact of mainstream entertainment companies such as Warner Bros., Disney, and NBCU, as well as tech giants such as Apple and Amazon, on Netflix's user growth. However, Netflix relies on its industrialized production capabilities, strong content recommendation and operation capabilities, and its competitive barriers remain prominent. The company's continuous improvements on mobile devices (such as caching and short comedies) will further enhance user stickiness.</p><p>Currently, Netflix accounts for less than 10% of TV time in the United States, and the medium- to long-term potential for TAM remains broad. With Netflix's continuous optimization of content production and cash management, coupled with the improvement in profits brought about by network effects and economies of scale due to user growth, Netflix's asset-liability structure and cash generation capabilities are expected to improve significantly.</p><p>According to Netflix's first-quarter shareholder letter, the company repaid $500 million in debt in the first quarter and plans to reduce the debt to $10-15 billion. In 2021, based on the FCF achieving balance, a repurchase program of no more than US$5 billion will be conducted. The positive progress in capital structure and shareholder policies will also provide positive support for the company's stock price in the medium to long term.</p><p><b>Netflix's Q2 Earnings Guidance</b></p><p>Regarding performance guidance,<b>Netflix expects to add 1 million paying subscribers in the second quarter, far less than the net increase of 10.06 million in the second quarter of last year.</b>，<b>The net increase of 4.44 million was also far lower than market expectations.</b>； Second-quarter EPS is expected to be $3.16, higher than the market expectation of $2.67.</p><p><b>How does Bloomberg view Netflix's second-quarter results?</b></p><p>Bloomberg consensus expects Netflix's second-quarter revenue to be $7.322 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.1%; Adjusted net income was $1.544 billion, a year-over-year increase of 35.2%; Adjusted earnings per share were $3.34, up 33.1% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28c18ac772955d78f138edf2b350102\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix's Q2 earnings preview: Will the \"terrifying\" scene happen again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix's Q2 earnings preview: Will the \"terrifying\" scene happen again?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-09 20:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 9th news: The number of new users can be described as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix, Inc.</a>The terrifying data came in Q1. Because new user growth fell short of expectations, the market completely ignored the better-than-expected financial results. After the earnings report was released, the stock price dropped by 10 percentage points. As a result, although Netflix's stock price continued to rise in Q2, it still did not return to the $549.57 it reached on the eve of the first quarter report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c5c7fe1d4932c67ef807197daa3dce\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the US stock market closed on July 20, Netflix will release its Q2 2021 financial report. Will this \"terrifying\" scene happen again? What are some key points worth noting?</p><p><b>First Quarter Performance Review</b></p><p>Netflix's earnings and revenue in the first quarter of this year both exceeded market expectations, but user growth declined sharply, far exceeding expectations. As a result, Netflix's stock price plummeted after the earnings release, falling by more than 10% rapidly, and at one point dropping to 13%.</p><p>Financial reports show that Netflix's revenue in the first quarter was $7.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, exceeding market expectations of $7.14 billion; Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.75, up 139% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $2.98; Net income was $1.707 billion, up 141% year-on-year from $709 million in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03edbbf55e3473625b74db2f5593e02a\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Netflix's gross profit margin hit a record high of 46% in the first quarter, mainly due to content production delays and lower costs. The market expects gross profit margin to decline to 44% in the second quarter.</p><p>What gave the stock price a wake-up call in the first quarter was the number of new users mentioned earlier. The financial report shows that<b>Netflix's net increase in global paying subscribers in the first quarter was only 3.98 million, nearly 37% lower than the market expectation of 6.29 million, and nearly 75% lower than the net increase in paying subscribers in the first quarter of last year.</b>The market expects the net increase in users to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e98b98696cd8ec1444f7eb1e423d54e2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The main reason for the lower-than-expected user growth is that the rapid growth in 2020 overdrawn future user growth, as well as the growth in offline activities brought about by the economic recovery.</p><p><b>What factors are worth noting in the second quarter:</b></p><p><b>1. Can new users return to high-speed growth?</b></p><p>Netflix attributes the weak growth in new users in the first quarter to the base effect and the impact of the pandemic on content production, or rather, the rapid growth in 2020 overdrawn future user growth, as well as the growth in offline activities brought about by the economic recovery.</p><p>Will this situation improve in the second quarter? In the short term, due to the still high level of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic globally, coupled with the inability to fully recover drama production,<b>Therefore, the company's user growth still faces uncertainty in the short term.</b>However, thanks to its massive content barriers and user experience, the company's overall user retention rate is still improving, and user stickiness remains good. The company has also continued to improve its ARPPU by raising subscription prices and improving its account system. In the first quarter, the company's overall ARPPU was US$11.50 (+6.1%), a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>In the long run, the general trend of users migrating from traditional media to streaming media platforms has not changed.</b>Netflix will continue to benefit from this major trend. The peak number of TV households worldwide (excluding China) is close to 800 million, which is still very ample compared to Netflix's 200 million subscribers.</p><p><b>2. Competition in streaming media is fierce, and Netflix continues to improve its content production capabilities.</b></p><p><b>Content production saw a significant increase in effort in the second quarter.</b>In late June, Netflix announced a partnership with Amblin Partners, led by globally renowned director Steven Spielberg. According to the agreement, Amblin expects to produce at least two films for Netflix each year, but the specific start date has not yet been determined. Spielberg may even personally oversee some of the films, and Netflix is expected to fund some of them. Amblin's previous film, \"Green Book,\" won the 2019 Academy Award for Best Picture.</p><p>In addition, Netflix has demonstrated its ambitions in the fields of virtual reality and gaming. Recently, Netflix announced that it has partnered with a powerful...<a href=\"https://c.duomai.com/track.php?site_id=242986&euid=&t=https%3A%2F%2Flist.jd.com%2Flist.html%3Fcat%3D737%2C794%2C798%26ev%3D4155_76344%26sort%3Dsort_rank_asc%26trans%3D1%26JL%3D2_1_0%23J_crumbsBar\" target=\"_blank\">television</a>Producer Shonda Rhimes reached a new agreement. The series \"Bridgerton,\" produced by Remus, has been a hit on Netflix. According to Netflix, Bridgerton is the most-watched series in the streaming platform's history.</p><p>This new deal strengthens Netflix's partnership with Remus in several ways, such as opening the door to feature films and investing in Remus's corporate programs to diversify Hollywood before and after the camera.<b>Netflix also stated that its partnership with Remus includes exclusive opportunities to produce and distribute potential games and virtual reality content.</b></p><p><b>In the long run, CITIC Securities stated that Netflix's competitive advantage remains clear.</b>The market is generally concerned about the impact of mainstream entertainment companies such as Warner Bros., Disney, and NBCU, as well as tech giants such as Apple and Amazon, on Netflix's user growth. However, Netflix relies on its industrialized production capabilities, strong content recommendation and operation capabilities, and its competitive barriers remain prominent. The company's continuous improvements on mobile devices (such as caching and short comedies) will further enhance user stickiness.</p><p>Currently, Netflix accounts for less than 10% of TV time in the United States, and the medium- to long-term potential for TAM remains broad. With Netflix's continuous optimization of content production and cash management, coupled with the improvement in profits brought about by network effects and economies of scale due to user growth, Netflix's asset-liability structure and cash generation capabilities are expected to improve significantly.</p><p>According to Netflix's first-quarter shareholder letter, the company repaid $500 million in debt in the first quarter and plans to reduce the debt to $10-15 billion. In 2021, based on the FCF achieving balance, a repurchase program of no more than US$5 billion will be conducted. The positive progress in capital structure and shareholder policies will also provide positive support for the company's stock price in the medium to long term.</p><p><b>Netflix's Q2 Earnings Guidance</b></p><p>Regarding performance guidance,<b>Netflix expects to add 1 million paying subscribers in the second quarter, far less than the net increase of 10.06 million in the second quarter of last year.</b>，<b>The net increase of 4.44 million was also far lower than market expectations.</b>； Second-quarter EPS is expected to be $3.16, higher than the market expectation of $2.67.</p><p><b>How does Bloomberg view Netflix's second-quarter results?</b></p><p>Bloomberg consensus expects Netflix's second-quarter revenue to be $7.322 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.1%; Adjusted net income was $1.544 billion, a year-over-year increase of 35.2%; Adjusted earnings per share were $3.34, up 33.1% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28c18ac772955d78f138edf2b350102\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2224e6b43e75f835dbd8bb6d8c4972c","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153517973","content_text":"7月9日消息，新增用户可谓是Netflix, Inc. 的恐怖数据，在Q1，因为新增用户增长不及预期，市场完全忽略财报业绩超预期，财报发布的盘后直接将股价打下10个点，使得尽管奈飞Q2股价保持上行，但股价仍未回到一季报前夜的549.57美元。\n\n7月20日美股盘后，奈飞将发布2021年Q2财务报告，“恐怖”一幕会再次上演吗？有哪些要点值得关注。\n一季度业绩回顾\n奈飞今年一季度的盈利和收入都高于市场预期，但用户增长大幅下滑，下降的幅度远超预期，导致在业绩公布后，奈飞股价在盘后跳水，跌幅迅速超过10%，一度跌至13%。\n财报显示，一季度奈飞营收71.6亿美元，同比增长24%，超出市场预期的71.4亿美元；稀释后每股收益（EPS）3.75美元，同比增长139%，高于市场预期的2.98美元；净利润17.07亿美元，同比增长141%，去年同期为7.09亿美元。\n\n此外，奈飞一季度毛利率创新高至46%，主要原因是内容制作延期，成本下降所致。市场预期，二季度毛利率将下滑至44%。\n一季度给股价“当头棒喝”的是前面提到的新增用户数。财报显示，一季度奈飞的全球付费用户仅净增加398万，比市场预期增幅629万低近37%，较去年一季度的净增付费用户同比减少将近75%，市场预期净增用户的同比降幅约为60%。\n\n用户增长不及预期的主要原因是，2020年较快的增长透支了未来的用户增量，以及经济复苏带来的线下活动增长。\n二季度有哪些因素值得关注：\n1、新增用户能否重回高速增长？\n对于一季度业新增用户增长疲软，奈飞方面认为，主要归咎于基数效应和疫情影响内容生产，或者说是2020年较快的增长透支了未来的用户增量，以及经济复苏带来的线下活动增长。\n二季度这种情况会好转吗？短期看，由于疫情在全球范围内的不确定性仍然较高，叠加剧集制作未能完全恢复，因此，短期内公司用户增长仍面临不确定性。不过，依靠庞大的内容壁垒以及用户体验，公司整体的用户留存率仍在提升，用户粘性依旧较好。而公司亦通过上调订阅价格、完善账户体系等方式，持续提升ARPPU，一季度公司整体ARPPU为11.5美元（+6.1%），相较上季度改善显著。\n长期看，用户从传统媒体向流媒体平台迁移的大趋势没有改变，奈飞将会持续受益于这一大趋势。全球（不包含中国）电视家庭数的高峰水平接近8亿，对比奈飞2亿的用户数来看，空间依然非常充足。\n2、流媒体竞争白热化，奈飞继续提升内容制作能力\n二季度内容制作发力明显。6月底，奈飞宣布与全球知名导演史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格领导的Amblin Partners达成合作关系。根据协议，Amblin预计每年至少为Netflix制作两部电影，具体开始时间暂未确定。斯皮尔伯格甚至有可能亲自负责一些电影，预计奈飞将为其中一些作品提供资金。Amblin此前制作的《绿皮书》，摘得2019年奥斯卡最佳影片奖。\n此外，奈飞还展示出对虚拟现实和游戏领域的野心。近日，奈飞宣布已同实力强大的电视制作人珊达·莱姆斯（Shonda Rhimes）达成新协议。莱姆斯制作的系列剧《布里奇顿》在Netflix上大放异彩。据Netflix称，《布里奇顿》是该流媒体平台历史上收视率最高的一部剧。\n这次的新交易从几个方面强化了Netflix与莱姆斯的合作，比如为剧情电影敞开大门、投资莱姆斯的公司节目使镜头前后的好莱坞更多样化。Netflix还表示，和莱姆斯的合作也包括独家制作和分发潜在游戏与虚拟现实内容的机会。\n长期看，中信证券表示，奈飞的竞争优势依旧明显。市场普遍担忧华纳、迪士尼、NBCU等主流娱乐公司以及苹果、亚马逊等科技巨头对奈飞用户增长的冲击。但奈飞依靠工业化的生产能力、强大的内容推荐与运营能力，其竞争壁垒依旧突出，而公司在移动端的持续改进（例如缓存、短喜剧）等将进一步提升用户粘性。\n当前，奈飞占到美国TV的时长不足10%，中长期的TAM依旧广阔。而随着奈飞在内容生产、现金管理上的持续优化，叠加用户增长带来的网络效应、规模效应对利润的改善，奈飞资产负债结构、现金创造能力料将大幅改善。\n据奈飞一季度股东信，公司一季度偿还5亿美元债务，并计划将债务规模压缩至100-150亿美元。2021年在FCF实现平衡的基础上，进行不超过50亿美元的回购计划。而资本结构、股东政策的积极进展，亦将对公司中长期股价产生正向支撑。\n奈飞提供的二季度业绩指导\n在业绩指引方面，奈飞预计，二季度新增付费用户100万，远不及去年二季度的净增1006万，也远低于市场预期的净增444万；预计二季度EPS 3.16美元，高于市场预期的2.67美元。\n彭博社如何看奈飞二季度业绩\n彭博社一致预期，奈飞二季度营收为73.22亿美元，同比增长19.1%；调整后净利润为15.44亿美元，同比增长35.2%；调整后每股收益3.34美元，同比增长33.1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153944019,"gmtCreate":1625007942032,"gmtModify":1703849819705,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153944019","repostId":"1164662782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164662782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624967212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164662782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 19:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dingdong Maicai set its IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range at $23.5 per ADS.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164662782","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"叮咚买菜据悉将美股IPO价格定在指导区间的底部23.5美元/ADS。\n相关阅读\n即将上市的叮咚买菜再次更新招股书，其筹资规模大幅缩减至此前额度的四分之一。最新的招股书显示，叮咚买菜首次公开发行370万","content":"<p>Dingdong Maicai has reportedly set its US IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range of $23.5 per ADS.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai, which is about to go public, has updated its prospectus again, significantly reducing its fundraising scale to a quarter of its previous amount. The latest prospectus shows that Dingdong Maicai has issued 3.7 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) in its initial public offering, with the issue price range remaining the same as before, between $23.50 and $25.50. Based on the upper limit of the issue price range, Dingdong Maicai will raise approximately US$94 million.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly offer 14 million American Depositary Shares, which could raise nearly $360 million based on the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the most recently announced fundraising scale has been reduced to a quarter of the previous amount, which is an overall reduction of more than 70%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dingdong Maicai set its IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range at $23.5 per ADS.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDingdong Maicai set its IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range at $23.5 per ADS.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 19:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dingdong Maicai has reportedly set its US IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range of $23.5 per ADS.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai, which is about to go public, has updated its prospectus again, significantly reducing its fundraising scale to a quarter of its previous amount. The latest prospectus shows that Dingdong Maicai has issued 3.7 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) in its initial public offering, with the issue price range remaining the same as before, between $23.50 and $25.50. Based on the upper limit of the issue price range, Dingdong Maicai will raise approximately US$94 million.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly offer 14 million American Depositary Shares, which could raise nearly $360 million based on the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the most recently announced fundraising scale has been reduced to a quarter of the previous amount, which is an overall reduction of more than 70%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164662782","content_text":"叮咚买菜据悉将美股IPO价格定在指导区间的底部23.5美元/ADS。\n相关阅读\n即将上市的叮咚买菜再次更新招股书，其筹资规模大幅缩减至此前额度的四分之一。最新的招股书显示，叮咚买菜首次公开发行370万股美国存托股票(ADS)，发行价格区间与此前相同，维持在23.5美元至25.5美元之间。按照发行价区间上限计算，叮咚买菜筹资金额大约在9400万美元左右。\n一周前，叮咚买菜首次更新的招股书显示其将公开发行1400万股美国存托股票，彼时按照发行价区间上限计算可筹资达到近3.6亿美元。对比之下，最近一次宣布的募资规模缩减至此前额度的四分之一，即总体缩减幅度超70%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153942732,"gmtCreate":1625007900026,"gmtModify":1703849819056,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153942732","repostId":"1105841462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105841462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624966743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105841462?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 19:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Full Truck Alliance: A Victory for Industrial Routers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841462","media":"子弹财经","summary":"6月22日，满帮集团正式在纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码“YMM”，成为中国的“数字货运第一股”，最终发行价定为19美元/ADS，市值接近210亿美元，约合1300亿人民币，意味着又一只千亿独角兽浮出水面。","content":"<p><div>On June 22, Full Truck Alliance (Manbang) officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"YMM,\" becoming China's \"first digital freight stock.\" The final issue price was set at $19 per ADS, with a market capitalization of nearly $21 billion, equivalent to approximately 130 billion RMB, signifying the emergence of another unicorn with a market capitalization of 100 billion RMB. Another IPO with a market capitalization of hundreds of billions of yuan has emerged, and another victory for the industrial internet. About eight years ago, China had only 150 million smartphone users, about one-ninth of today's number. However, a group of industry pioneers saw an opportunity in this. They realized that the mobile internet brought about a completely different...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9ebSESetOZAnqNgK3TqcrQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"zdcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Full Truck Alliance: A Victory for Industrial Routers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFull Truck Alliance: A Victory for Industrial Routers\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">子弹财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 19:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On June 22, Full Truck Alliance (Manbang) officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"YMM,\" becoming China's \"first digital freight stock.\" The final issue price was set at $19 per ADS, with a market capitalization of nearly $21 billion, equivalent to approximately 130 billion RMB, signifying the emergence of another unicorn with a market capitalization of 100 billion RMB. Another IPO with a market capitalization of hundreds of billions of yuan has emerged, and another victory for the industrial internet. About eight years ago, China had only 150 million smartphone users, about one-ninth of today's number. However, a group of industry pioneers saw an opportunity in this. They realized that the mobile internet brought about a completely different...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9ebSESetOZAnqNgK3TqcrQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9ebSESetOZAnqNgK3TqcrQ\">子弹财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127506d9d77106d93efdeab5620bcd08","relate_stocks":{"YMM":"满帮"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9ebSESetOZAnqNgK3TqcrQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841462","content_text":"6月22日，满帮集团正式在纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码“YMM”，成为中国的“数字货运第一股”，最终发行价定为19美元/ADS，市值接近210亿美元，约合1300亿人民币，意味着又一只千亿独角兽浮出水面。\n又一个千亿市值IPO诞生，又一次产业互联网的胜利。\n大概在8年前，中国的智能手机用户只有1.5亿人，大约相当现在的九分之一，有一批行业先行者却从中看到了机会。他们意识到，移动互联网带来的是完全不同的机会，它可以让每个物理个体，不论是人还是物，都能拥有一个属于自己的数字ID，并可以进行实时的交互、反馈和协同，一种新的基于广域连接的商业模式即将浮出水面……\n时隔八年，其中最有能力的一批企业正在证明自己当初对格局判断的准确，其中，就有满帮这个当今全球最大的数字货运平台。\n1、满帮上市\n6月22日，满帮集团（以下简称“满帮”）正式在纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码“YMM”，成为中国的“数字货运第一股”，最终发行价定为19美元/ADS，市值接近210亿美元，约合1300亿人民币，意味着又一只千亿独角兽浮出水面。\n招股书显示，满帮作为领先的数字货运平台，通过打通线上车货匹配及交易闭环，实现了货主与司机的无缝连接，并提供货运黄页服务、货运经纪服务、线上交易服务及一系列增值服务，已构建起覆盖公路运输全服务场景的货运新生态。\n阿里系出身的张晖，于2013年年底，在经过对物流行业的深度调研后，自己投资并带领一支规模不大的团队，研发了面向卡车司机和物流公司的运力调度软件——运满满，填补了长期以来国内跨城运力智能调度的空白。\n这个团队可以说完全是白手起家，起家的所在地南京，也不是一个创业公司扎堆的地方。起初，张晖只租了一个10平米的小房子，他担心招不到人，为了让办公室显得大一点，还在墙上贴了镜子。说来幸运，还真汇聚了一批默默坚持的人一起走到了今天。\n当时的互联网+出行市场已经风生水起，但重得多、痛点也深得多的货运行业，却鲜有人试图用互联网的方法论进行改造和升级，张晖的老同事王刚当即追加了天使轮。\n不过，2013年才入局，真的称不上太早。因为从2014年开始，许许多多打着做“货和车的连接”的车货匹配平台，也杀入了赛道。但是，很少有人意识到，仅仅做车和货的浅层次连接，是不足以真正改造这个行业的。\n绝大多数类似项目启动的时候，“产业互联网”概念还没有勃兴，也正是因为没有意识到产业互联网对于这个项目在本质上的重要性，经过若干年的资本洗礼，数以百计的车货匹配平台纷纷倒下，一时间行业盛传车货匹配是「伪命题」，其实大部分企业的基本模式没错，但是没有足够的技术支撑来实现。\n张晖后来曾调侃地说：“有人说我们是靠地推起家的，其实，我们更注重创新。创新的第一步体现在了我们把线下的货源搬到了线上，之后经过不懈地努力，又把线上非标的黄页模式变成了标准化的闭环模式。与一些通过充分竞争后才进入无人区的大公司不同，我们从创业的第一天开始就在无人区，一路探索过往不曾有人探索过的土壤。”当时，中国的互联网出行行业刚刚赢得了一场对国际巨头的险胜。但了解幕后消息的张晖却发现，当中国出行公司刚刚实现用移动互联网进行简单的运力调度的时候，国际出行巨头已经运用了多项平台级的产业互联网技术，如线路自动规划、定价实时波动和数据积累用于预测等，这让他们做出了一个很重要、很超前的判断——\n技术驱动+商业模式创新，用产业互联网而不是消费互联网的技术改造行业，才是长期主义。\n这个判断，如今是尽人皆知，但在8年前就看到，才是真正的洞察力。\n如今，单纯的商业模式创新已经基本穷尽，技术驱动+商业模式创新才是下一个时代的主题，这解释了为什么BAT纷纷投入产业互联网技术，解释了贝壳找房、京东健康这样的企业为何选择互联网+产业的形态投入。\n所以，如果要问满帮和别的企业有什么不同？那么，相同的都是车-货的直接连接，不同的是背后的支撑。\n2、满帮究竟解决了什么问题？\n严格意义上说，今天的满帮集团，承载了运满满创始人张晖和货车帮创始人戴文建的共同梦想，两人也同为集团董事会成员。\n所以，在上市时张晖第一个感谢的就是戴文建，他说：“首先，我想感谢一下我的好兄弟老戴，老戴是货车帮的创始人，也是我们这个行业的拓荒者，他把创业的精神留在了企业的基因里，直到今天，公司依旧有好多老戴的影子。”\n远在成都的货车帮于2011年成立，此后渐渐崛起，而运满满成立于2013年，后面是一段长达数年的厮杀，直至2017年，在投资人的撮合下，运满满和货车帮正式合并，自此奠定了难以撼动的地位。\n一家很有影响力的媒体当时预言说：这次合并的结果是，之前中国的互联网行业里，消费互联网巨头层出不穷，但产业互联网出现群体性缺失。现在两家公司走到了一起，不仅万亿级的物流行业格局即将被改写，未来更有望打造出中国产业互联网巨头。\n当时，看到满帮未来的不仅有媒体，还有一些眼光独到的投资人。\nGGV纪源资本从2016年开始投资满帮集团的前身之一“运满满”，GGV纪源资本管理合伙人符绩勋表示，货运物流市场过去是一个低效、传统的市场，满帮集团通过移动互联网让信息更扁平化，通过App直接使货源匹配到司机，解决了传统线下物流行业货源短缺、价格虚高、投诉率高和货运流转低效等问题，利用智能物流提高了资源整合效率，提高了供需双方的匹配速度，极大地优化了物流行业。\n可见，行业的痛点，表层是匹配效率，底层则是物流货运市场存在一个多年的难题——供需服务效率问题。\n满帮集团如何突出重围的？「子弹财经」认为，是勇于面对和解决痛点。\n当时货运市场的第一痛点，是市场极为庞大，但结构过于长尾。\n根据CIC报告，中国是世界上最大的公路运输市场，2020年公路运输市场总规模达到6.2万亿元。从市场规模来说，货运市场很大，但由于国内有一大批长尾货主（需求端）和卡车司机（供给端）都是小微企业甚至是个人，整个市场的供需资源非常零散，是一个典型的非标、散乱型市场。如何将散乱的市场整合起来，对平台的考验极大。\n满帮的做法，一开始就是平台型架构。\n简单来说，就是以满帮为代表的平台通过整合社会运力资源形成运力池，连接货主及货代企业形成订单池，辅以大数据和AI技术进行精准匹配连接，实现物流资源的配置优化，显著提高了存量资产的使用效率。以公路运输市场为例，平台的出现使车辆空驶率从之前的40%-50%下降到20%左右。\n当时的货运市场的第二大痛点，是没有一个公信力足够高的平台，传统货运的信息流转和交易达成，本质上是熟人经济，信任成本虽低，但效率却非常低下。\n与这种低下的匹配效率所不相适应的，是当时随着电商经济发展而规模迅速膨胀的货运行业。一方面是巨大的需求得不到满足，另一方面是货运行业的数字化迟迟得不到进展。\n张晖看得很清楚，熟人经济加上调度室的几块小黑板，就是当时主流的货运行业存在现状，这导致因信息不对称而影响了货主与司机的高效匹配，同时交易的复杂度很高，但数字化程度却很低。\n此前，运满满（货车帮的做法也类似）通过线上信息平台，高效匹配货运供需两端，减少了过往第三方的层层转包，打通线上车货匹配及交易闭环，完成货主与司机的无缝连接。\n而这次至关重要的合并，极大地加强了行业的集中度——新的满帮集团，其平台注册的卡车司机数量超过第二至第五大数字货运平台总和的两倍，这不仅加速了数字化货运在行业的普及度，也使得先进生产力得以充分发挥群聚效应和网络效应。\n这次合并可以说一举奠定了满帮的领导地位，但并不意味着行业就此平静，依旧有追赶者层出不穷，而满帮的护城河又在哪里？\n3、满帮的核心护城河是什么？\n根据网经社电子商务研究中心发布《2020年物流科技“独角兽”榜》：菜鸟网络、京东物流和满帮集团分别位于榜单前三的位置。\n可见，在行业观察者眼里，满帮的本质是“科技+物流”，而不是单纯的物流。而产业互联网的价值就在于，它呈现ABC合流（AI+Big Data+Cloud）的融合，随着企业的运转，数据会不断累积，累积的数据又能反向优化基于AI的数字化运营和预测能力，最终形成一个可以自己生长、升级的数字壁垒。\n「子弹财经」认为，满帮的第一护城河，是踏踏实实的搭建了行业基础设施。\n可以说，满帮成功的基础，是进行了一整套数字化、标准化和智能化的物流基础设施建设。如果说这属于“硬件”，那其中的“软件”，则包括⼀套全⾯的公路运输交易规则和相关的应⽤程序，它“重写”了这个古老行业的“软内核”，进而赋予其“硬核实力”的升级。\n满帮的物流基础设施已将货运匹配效率从⼏天⼤幅提⾼到⼏分钟。2020年12⽉，满帮的平均运单匹配时间（衡量从货主通过满帮的平台下订单到卡车司机⽀付运费保证⾦完成交易的平均时间）为13分钟，⽐2019年12⽉提⾼了44.3%。\n而深受多方欢迎的是，同时，满帮作为一个直接连接供需双方的平台，消除了既往这一行业复杂的交易结构，由于交易层次的削减，实现了真正意义上的“没有中间商赚差价”，从而降低运输成本。而这并不是一笔小钱，因为中间商费⽤通常占到货主⽀付运费的10-15%。\n此外，满帮还通过降低空驶率、减少燃料浪费，从而实现环保。在2020年，满帮通过更智能的物流基础设施减少了330000公吨的碳排放。\n\n而这一切的支持是“三化”，即数字化、标准化和智能化。\n在数字化层面，满帮已经将货运匹配流程完全数字化，货主和卡车司机随时随地通过他们的⼿机进行连接，而满帮以透明和结构化的⽅式提供数据，以便货主和卡车司机可以快速做出明智的决定。\n在标准化层面，满帮收集了⼀组标准参数，并且根据满帮的海量历史交易数据⽣成的附加参数与这些标准参数相互补充，从而使得运营有一套数据依据，进而，这些数据为更智能的匹配和定价算法打下了坚实的基础。\n由于有了数字化和标准化，从而使得智能化得以实现，现代人工智能的主要模式是深度学习，而深度学习的效果极大程度上取决于数据的样本量和标注水平，满帮正是因为有了更多关于交易、货主和卡车司机的数据，才可以建立一套通过全⾯的参数范围，实现更智能地匹配和定价交易，这也使得卡车司机能够从过往基于搜索、查看列表的“人找货”体验转变为基于系统推荐的“货找人”体验。\n当然，除了以上所述，满帮的第二护城河，是成体系的提供服务的能力+增值服务。\n对于基础服务方面，我们已经有充分的描述。所以「子弹财经」特别注意到，满帮还提供了⼀系列增值服务，以满⾜货主和卡车司机的各种进阶需求，例如，货主可以在满帮平台上访问运输管理系统，并寻找信贷解决⽅案和保险服务；卡车司机可以在平台上查询交规违反记录，获取保险、ETC、能源等服务。\n这些服务有些提升了货运工作的便利性，有些则有极大的商业空间可供挖掘，如能源和保险服务。\n前面虽已提及，但这里还要展开，「子弹财经」认为，满帮还有第三护城河，即数据池+运营know-how。\n满帮是移动互联网时代的原住民，在很多企业还在为数据的缺失和异构而感到难以治理时，满帮已经把创立多年来的大数据视为最珍贵的财富，在科技化建设的过程中，通过对这些数据的深入挖掘和优化利用，建立了属于自己的核心壁垒，那就是基于数据分析，驱动效率决策的提升，这是满帮能够得以不断降低成本的关键，也是它在十年间就成长为赛道领航企业的一个重要原因。\n伴随着新消费的升级，网络型物流企业的竞争已经从规模竞争走向精细化管理竞争，而精细化管理的关键在于数字化网络运营。\n事实证明，每个有海量运营数据积淀，并善用科技手段利用这些数据隐含的价值的企业，都有相对比较稳固的基本盘，例如美团、携程和贝壳找房，这样的企业即使面对竞争对手的补贴式成本竞争，也能够用差异化的竞争手段予以应对；相反，有些一度技术很强，却没有运营积淀的企业，很容易就随着技术范式的转移，快速的失去竞争力。\n这是因为什么呢？是因为运营是一门科学，现代化的运营产出的不仅是数据，还有大量的行业know how，而所有的优化都必须基于历史数据的沉淀，以及跟运营团队的具体经验相结合，才能产生持续累积的价值。\n满帮是一个典型的产业互联网企业，这体现在，大量运行的数据虽然在小B（货主、车主等）处流转，但最后回笼到满帮的大池子里，用于业务提升打磨，AI能力训练等，而这些能力又能通过满帮的自有网络去实施。\n满帮是货运行业的产业路由器，棋盘资本创始人马宏提出过这样的观点：“存量时代的‘大整合’过程中，行业所需要构建的底盘，要承担的就是一个产业路由器的角色，其链接着很多专业的小B。这其中，中心的大S（大供应链平台）是数据驱动、数据链接和网络协同，由专业的小B提供专业技能和贴身服务，全面触达消费者，实时互动，完成个性化服务。”\n而这一切满帮应有尽有。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169320076,"gmtCreate":1623817671495,"gmtModify":1703820417465,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169320076","repostId":"1105560825","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105560825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623812861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105560825?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The United States is flooded with gold, so why are risky assets \"stagflation\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105560825","media":"格隆汇","summary":"银行出于监管需求，正在向货币基金出让短期流动性。","content":"<p>Author: Jin Yi Team</p><p>1. The US money market is flooded with gold.</p><p><b>The US money market has recently shown a trend of excessive liquidity.</b>Since March, U.S. money market interest rates have been on a downward trend, with the U.S. federal funds rate continuing to decline since January and currently remaining at 0.06%. Under the control of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate of 0-25 basis points, Federal Funds rate cannot fall below zero and is currently in a situation where there is almost no way to lower it.</p><p>Because Federal Funds rate was affected by the lower limit and could not reflect the real overnight market liquidity during the QE period, after the subprime mortgage crisis, academia created the Wu-Xia shadow interest rate to measure the real level of Federal Funds rate during the QE period.<b>Currently, the Wu-Xia shadow interest rate is as low as the interest rate level on the eve of the \"reduction panic\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f2fbff2e280fe37bf341e082642f641\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of overflowing liquidity in the current money market, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase operations have surged.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operations are the opposite of central bank reverse repurchase operations. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operations aim to tighten short-term liquidity in the market by selling Treasury Bond and MBS to qualified institutions and redeeming them at maturity.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the Federal Reserve's reverse repos are not initiated by the Federal Reserve itself, but by these eligible counterparties.</b>Therefore, reverse repos are not essentially the Federal Reserve actively withdrawing liquidity. Deposit-taking institutions often tend to reduce their leverage exposure at the end of a quarter due to regulatory requirements, while institutions can temporarily reduce leverage through overnight reverse repos. Therefore, overnight reverse repos often see a surge in volume at the end of the quarter.<b>The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repos have recently begun to increase in volume in the middle of the quarter, demonstrating the ample liquidity in the market.</b></p><p><b>2. What caused the recent easing of liquidity?</b></p><p>The current overabundance of liquidity in the US market is somewhat inevitable.<b>From a macro perspective,</b>Since the pandemic, the United States<b>The three rounds of stimulus policies and quantitative easing are undoubtedly the fundamental reasons for the current loose liquidity.</b>；<b>From a micro perspective</b>Changes in regulatory policies and the supply and demand of short-term funds are also \"catalysts\" for the current loose liquidity, which can be divided into the following four main reasons:<b>(1) After the pandemic, banks experienced an imbalance between deposits and loans; (2) TGA accounts have been reduced, and banks' excess reserves have increased; (3) The non-renewal of SLR exemptions has increased regulatory pressure on banks; (4) Since March, the supply of short-term bonds has been significantly insufficient.</b></p><p>2.1</p><p><b>Post-pandemic imbalance between bank deposits and loans</b></p><p><b>Since the start of the pandemic, bank deposits have surged while loans have increased insignificantly, which is one of the main reasons for the current overflow of liquidity in the interbank and even money markets.</b>The reasons for the surge in bank deposits are:<b>On the one hand</b>Since March of last year, American companies have begun to hoard cash to hedge against operational risks;<b>on the other hand</b>With the continuous implementation of three rounds of stimulus policies, residents' bank deposits have also continued to increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a954b658761447e8614a2c5a2c7136\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There are two main reasons why the increase in bank loans is weaker than the increase in deposits:</p><p><b>(1) After the pandemic, banks raised their loan thresholds.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, various bank loan businesses increased their requirements for borrowers in the first three quarters of 2020. Among them, the credit contraction in the second quarter was the most obvious. Taking credit cards as an example, 85.8% of commercial banks tightened their application requirements for credit cards.<b>Therefore, the increased loan threshold is one of the reasons for the slow loan growth.</b></p><p><b>(2) Corporate financing has better channels.</b>Following the pandemic, a large number of corporate bonds, represented by consumer sector bonds, saw their ratings downgraded from investment-grade to speculative-grade. However, with the introduction of the stimulus bill, the fundamentals of these companies began to gradually recover, and the market began to chase after these undervalued \"junk bonds.\" Against this backdrop, the market also triggered a wave of \"junk bond\" issuance.<b>Therefore, after the pandemic, corporate financing dependence on banks has decreased, which is why bank loan growth is slower than deposit growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441b9cb73cbae5e54f765111fd62eb49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.2</p><p><b>TGA accounts are being reduced, while banks' excess reserves are increasing.</b></p><p><b>Since March, the Federal Reserve has significantly reduced its TGA account, injecting blood into the banking system, resulting in recent ample liquidity.</b>The link between U.S. fiscal policy and the real economy is generally achieved through the TGA account opened by the Treasury Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The increase or decrease in TGA accounts is mainly affected by two factors:</p><p><b>(1) Government transfer payments.</b>For example, in the three rounds of stimulus bills since the pandemic, the government issued checks to individuals for transfer payments. Residents hold tickets to transfer money to commercial banks, which in turn hold tickets to transfer money to the Federal Reserve. During this process, the changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet were all reflected on the liability side, manifested in the Treasury Department's write-down of the Fed's TGA account, while the corresponding commercial banks' write-ups of the Fed's excess reserve accounts.</p><p><b>(2) Treasury Bond will not be renewed upon expiration.</b>When commercial banks hold Treasury Bond that mature, the Ministry of Finance uses the TGA account to repay principal and interest to the commercial banks. During this period, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet also shows a write-down of the TGA account, while the commercial banks' excess reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve are increased. Issuing new Treasury Bond has the opposite effect.</p><p><b>Therefore, considering the above two points, the TGA account and the excess reserves of commercial banks have fluctuated. The increase in interbank liquidity since March is partly due to the significant reduction in TGA, which has led to an increase in banks' excess reserves. On the one hand</b>With the passage of the third round of stimulus bills, massive fiscal spending led to a large outflow of TGAs, and residents cashed checks, increasing commercial banks' excess reserves.<b>on the other hand</b>The United States suspended its debt limit in August 2019, with the maturity date set for July 31. As a result, the recent rolling bond issuance has decreased, which has also led to a decrease in TGA (Total Amount of Bonds), which in turn has led to an increase in the excess quasi-principal of commercial banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec9ac8661bdb99c05ad155a0e19684\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.3</p><p><b>SLR exemptions expire and are not renewed, increasing regulatory pressure on banks.</b></p><p>Following the subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve used SLR (Supplemental Leverage Ratio) regulation to limit the leverage levels of large banks. Generally speaking, for ordinary commercial banks, the Federal Reserve's regulatory requirement for SLR is 3%; For large commercial banks with significant global influence, the Federal Reserve's regulatory requirement is 5%.</p><p><b>In March, the SLR Waiver was not renewed.</b>This has led to higher regulatory standards, resulting in a relative excess of interbank liquidity. During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve introduced the SLR exemption to increase banks' support for the real economy, meaning that banks' Treasury Bond and reserve accounts with the Federal Reserve were not included in the calculation of total leverage exposure.<b>On March 31, 2021, the Federal Reserve discontinued the SLR waiver, which means that banks' total leverage exposure will increase, and there is a potential risk of a decline in SLR.</b></p><p><b>Since SLR = Tier 1 Core Capital / Total Leverage Exposure, in order for SLR to meet regulatory requirements, banks can generally:</b></p><p><b>(1) Replenish Tier 1 core capital.</b>However, since Tier 1 core capital tends to be the bank's common stock, preferred shares, and retained earnings.<b>Increasing core capital in the short term is costly and difficult to achieve, so replenishing core capital is often not the first choice for banks.</b></p><p><b>(2) Pressure reduction total lever exposure.</b>Regarding total leverage exposure, banks often reduce total leverage exposure by removing deposits from the liability side of the balance sheet.<b>Initiating an overnight reverse repurchase application with the Federal Reserve can effectively remove deposits from the balance sheet. This is another reason why we have seen a surge in overnight reverse repos recently.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874cb51f637e2211a9256a32b9546b05\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.4</p><p><b>Since March, the supply of short-term bonds has been significantly</b></p><p><b>Entering March, the issuance of US short-term debt contracted significantly, leaving a large amount of hot money \"aimless\".</b>As mentioned above, the Federal Reserve's debt ceiling will be reinstated at the end of July this year. At that time, if Congress cannot resolve the debt ceiling issue, the debt ceiling will return to the $22 trillion level before 2019. As of April, the U.S. debt stock was about $28 trillion, making it necessary to reduce the debt. Therefore, since March, the rolling issuance of short-term bonds has plummeted after they matured, and the net issuance of short-term Treasury Bond has been significantly negative since March.<b>In this context, the abundance of hot money and the scarcity of short-term coupons in the market is one of the reasons for the current excess liquidity among banks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce4bfda3254f63396f090cb6af6dd8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3、</b><b>Why didn't ample liquidity boost asset prices?</b></p><p>Although the recent Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase volume does indicate loose interbank liquidity, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both shown weakness since the beginning of May, while Bitcoin, which is heavily affected by liquidity, has also shown signs of a downward correction.<b>The rise in asset prices after the pandemic is undoubtedly related to the easing of macroeconomic liquidity. The main reason why the recent ample liquidity has not caused asset prices to continue to rise is that banks are selling short-term liquidity to money market funds for regulatory reasons.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca45c8aa0407f85cc50d9c3b611c678\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As mentioned above, the main way banks raise the SLR is by divesting deposits off the balance sheet, thereby reducing their total leverage exposure.<b>In addition to divesting deposits through the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool, guiding deposits to be invested in money market funds is also a feasible approach.</b>After entering March, a large amount of funds began to flow into money market funds, but the recent sharp drop in short-term bond issuance forced money market funds to seek out the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tools to temporarily store excess liquidity.<b>The recent surge in overnight reverse repos is partly due to the need for US money market funds to temporarily store hot money. In other words, excess liquidity is effectively absorbed by money market funds rather than entering the risk asset market. As a result, the prices of various risk assets have not experienced another surge since the pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d981578f46e99127eb50bbd769ba85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4、</b><b>How will the Federal Reserve respond?</b></p><p><b>Whether the Federal Reserve will make a Tweak at its June policy meeting deserves further attention. At its April policy meeting, the Federal Reserve expressed concern about the continued decline in overnight interest rates and indicated that appropriate guidance on the target interest rate may be needed in the future.</b></p><p>Following the subprime mortgage crisis, as Federal Funds rate remained below the Interest Rate ON Excess Reserves (IOER), which should have been the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve created a \"sub-floor\" to curb the continued decline in Federal Funds rate. The \"sub-floor\" is the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) mentioned above.<b>Therefore, the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor is essentially a special \"double bottom\" structure, with the excess reserve rate guiding the Federal Funds rate trend, while the overnight reverse repurchase rate plays a supporting role.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's target interest rate is set at an integer multiple of 25 basis points, and the current target rate is 0-25 basis points. After 2018, the Federal Reserve proposed that the excess reserve rate and the overnight reverse repurchase rate could be adjusted by less than 25 basis points. For example, the current excess reserve rate is 10 basis points and the overnight reverse repurchase rate is 0 basis points. The Federal Reserve can simultaneously adjust it upwards by 5 basis points to guide the target rate upwards, but the overall target rate will still be kept within 0-25 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6657b1d580a0c5df248eff7fad901d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The current loose liquidity among US banks means that the supportive effect of loose monetary policy on the real economy is declining marginally.</b>We believe that the current excess liquidity situation will not improve until the Federal Reserve actually tapers QE. However, this does not mean that the Federal Reserve will immediately signal a tapering of QE. Currently, the Federal Reserve has approximately 50 eligible reverse repurchase counterparties (including commercial banks and money market funds), with each counterparty having a transaction limit of $80 billion.<b>Compared to the volume of overnight reverse repurchase operations seen recently, there is still considerable room to absorb the temporary surplus liquidity. Therefore, we believe that the official disclosure of the signal of tapering QE may have to wait until there is a greater improvement in the job market and 75% vaccination.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The recurring COVID-19 pandemic has prompted the Federal Reserve to taper its bond purchases ahead of schedule.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States is flooded with gold, so why are risky assets \"stagflation\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States is flooded with gold, so why are risky assets \"stagflation\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Jin Yi Team</p><p>1. The US money market is flooded with gold.</p><p><b>The US money market has recently shown a trend of excessive liquidity.</b>Since March, U.S. money market interest rates have been on a downward trend, with the U.S. federal funds rate continuing to decline since January and currently remaining at 0.06%. Under the control of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate of 0-25 basis points, Federal Funds rate cannot fall below zero and is currently in a situation where there is almost no way to lower it.</p><p>Because Federal Funds rate was affected by the lower limit and could not reflect the real overnight market liquidity during the QE period, after the subprime mortgage crisis, academia created the Wu-Xia shadow interest rate to measure the real level of Federal Funds rate during the QE period.<b>Currently, the Wu-Xia shadow interest rate is as low as the interest rate level on the eve of the \"reduction panic\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f2fbff2e280fe37bf341e082642f641\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of overflowing liquidity in the current money market, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase operations have surged.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operations are the opposite of central bank reverse repurchase operations. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operations aim to tighten short-term liquidity in the market by selling Treasury Bond and MBS to qualified institutions and redeeming them at maturity.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the Federal Reserve's reverse repos are not initiated by the Federal Reserve itself, but by these eligible counterparties.</b>Therefore, reverse repos are not essentially the Federal Reserve actively withdrawing liquidity. Deposit-taking institutions often tend to reduce their leverage exposure at the end of a quarter due to regulatory requirements, while institutions can temporarily reduce leverage through overnight reverse repos. Therefore, overnight reverse repos often see a surge in volume at the end of the quarter.<b>The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repos have recently begun to increase in volume in the middle of the quarter, demonstrating the ample liquidity in the market.</b></p><p><b>2. What caused the recent easing of liquidity?</b></p><p>The current overabundance of liquidity in the US market is somewhat inevitable.<b>From a macro perspective,</b>Since the pandemic, the United States<b>The three rounds of stimulus policies and quantitative easing are undoubtedly the fundamental reasons for the current loose liquidity.</b>；<b>From a micro perspective</b>Changes in regulatory policies and the supply and demand of short-term funds are also \"catalysts\" for the current loose liquidity, which can be divided into the following four main reasons:<b>(1) After the pandemic, banks experienced an imbalance between deposits and loans; (2) TGA accounts have been reduced, and banks' excess reserves have increased; (3) The non-renewal of SLR exemptions has increased regulatory pressure on banks; (4) Since March, the supply of short-term bonds has been significantly insufficient.</b></p><p>2.1</p><p><b>Post-pandemic imbalance between bank deposits and loans</b></p><p><b>Since the start of the pandemic, bank deposits have surged while loans have increased insignificantly, which is one of the main reasons for the current overflow of liquidity in the interbank and even money markets.</b>The reasons for the surge in bank deposits are:<b>On the one hand</b>Since March of last year, American companies have begun to hoard cash to hedge against operational risks;<b>on the other hand</b>With the continuous implementation of three rounds of stimulus policies, residents' bank deposits have also continued to increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a954b658761447e8614a2c5a2c7136\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There are two main reasons why the increase in bank loans is weaker than the increase in deposits:</p><p><b>(1) After the pandemic, banks raised their loan thresholds.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, various bank loan businesses increased their requirements for borrowers in the first three quarters of 2020. Among them, the credit contraction in the second quarter was the most obvious. Taking credit cards as an example, 85.8% of commercial banks tightened their application requirements for credit cards.<b>Therefore, the increased loan threshold is one of the reasons for the slow loan growth.</b></p><p><b>(2) Corporate financing has better channels.</b>Following the pandemic, a large number of corporate bonds, represented by consumer sector bonds, saw their ratings downgraded from investment-grade to speculative-grade. However, with the introduction of the stimulus bill, the fundamentals of these companies began to gradually recover, and the market began to chase after these undervalued \"junk bonds.\" Against this backdrop, the market also triggered a wave of \"junk bond\" issuance.<b>Therefore, after the pandemic, corporate financing dependence on banks has decreased, which is why bank loan growth is slower than deposit growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441b9cb73cbae5e54f765111fd62eb49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.2</p><p><b>TGA accounts are being reduced, while banks' excess reserves are increasing.</b></p><p><b>Since March, the Federal Reserve has significantly reduced its TGA account, injecting blood into the banking system, resulting in recent ample liquidity.</b>The link between U.S. fiscal policy and the real economy is generally achieved through the TGA account opened by the Treasury Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The increase or decrease in TGA accounts is mainly affected by two factors:</p><p><b>(1) Government transfer payments.</b>For example, in the three rounds of stimulus bills since the pandemic, the government issued checks to individuals for transfer payments. Residents hold tickets to transfer money to commercial banks, which in turn hold tickets to transfer money to the Federal Reserve. During this process, the changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet were all reflected on the liability side, manifested in the Treasury Department's write-down of the Fed's TGA account, while the corresponding commercial banks' write-ups of the Fed's excess reserve accounts.</p><p><b>(2) Treasury Bond will not be renewed upon expiration.</b>When commercial banks hold Treasury Bond that mature, the Ministry of Finance uses the TGA account to repay principal and interest to the commercial banks. During this period, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet also shows a write-down of the TGA account, while the commercial banks' excess reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve are increased. Issuing new Treasury Bond has the opposite effect.</p><p><b>Therefore, considering the above two points, the TGA account and the excess reserves of commercial banks have fluctuated. The increase in interbank liquidity since March is partly due to the significant reduction in TGA, which has led to an increase in banks' excess reserves. On the one hand</b>With the passage of the third round of stimulus bills, massive fiscal spending led to a large outflow of TGAs, and residents cashed checks, increasing commercial banks' excess reserves.<b>on the other hand</b>The United States suspended its debt limit in August 2019, with the maturity date set for July 31. As a result, the recent rolling bond issuance has decreased, which has also led to a decrease in TGA (Total Amount of Bonds), which in turn has led to an increase in the excess quasi-principal of commercial banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec9ac8661bdb99c05ad155a0e19684\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.3</p><p><b>SLR exemptions expire and are not renewed, increasing regulatory pressure on banks.</b></p><p>Following the subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve used SLR (Supplemental Leverage Ratio) regulation to limit the leverage levels of large banks. Generally speaking, for ordinary commercial banks, the Federal Reserve's regulatory requirement for SLR is 3%; For large commercial banks with significant global influence, the Federal Reserve's regulatory requirement is 5%.</p><p><b>In March, the SLR Waiver was not renewed.</b>This has led to higher regulatory standards, resulting in a relative excess of interbank liquidity. During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve introduced the SLR exemption to increase banks' support for the real economy, meaning that banks' Treasury Bond and reserve accounts with the Federal Reserve were not included in the calculation of total leverage exposure.<b>On March 31, 2021, the Federal Reserve discontinued the SLR waiver, which means that banks' total leverage exposure will increase, and there is a potential risk of a decline in SLR.</b></p><p><b>Since SLR = Tier 1 Core Capital / Total Leverage Exposure, in order for SLR to meet regulatory requirements, banks can generally:</b></p><p><b>(1) Replenish Tier 1 core capital.</b>However, since Tier 1 core capital tends to be the bank's common stock, preferred shares, and retained earnings.<b>Increasing core capital in the short term is costly and difficult to achieve, so replenishing core capital is often not the first choice for banks.</b></p><p><b>(2) Pressure reduction total lever exposure.</b>Regarding total leverage exposure, banks often reduce total leverage exposure by removing deposits from the liability side of the balance sheet.<b>Initiating an overnight reverse repurchase application with the Federal Reserve can effectively remove deposits from the balance sheet. This is another reason why we have seen a surge in overnight reverse repos recently.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874cb51f637e2211a9256a32b9546b05\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.4</p><p><b>Since March, the supply of short-term bonds has been significantly</b></p><p><b>Entering March, the issuance of US short-term debt contracted significantly, leaving a large amount of hot money \"aimless\".</b>As mentioned above, the Federal Reserve's debt ceiling will be reinstated at the end of July this year. At that time, if Congress cannot resolve the debt ceiling issue, the debt ceiling will return to the $22 trillion level before 2019. As of April, the U.S. debt stock was about $28 trillion, making it necessary to reduce the debt. Therefore, since March, the rolling issuance of short-term bonds has plummeted after they matured, and the net issuance of short-term Treasury Bond has been significantly negative since March.<b>In this context, the abundance of hot money and the scarcity of short-term coupons in the market is one of the reasons for the current excess liquidity among banks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce4bfda3254f63396f090cb6af6dd8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3、</b><b>Why didn't ample liquidity boost asset prices?</b></p><p>Although the recent Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase volume does indicate loose interbank liquidity, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both shown weakness since the beginning of May, while Bitcoin, which is heavily affected by liquidity, has also shown signs of a downward correction.<b>The rise in asset prices after the pandemic is undoubtedly related to the easing of macroeconomic liquidity. The main reason why the recent ample liquidity has not caused asset prices to continue to rise is that banks are selling short-term liquidity to money market funds for regulatory reasons.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca45c8aa0407f85cc50d9c3b611c678\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As mentioned above, the main way banks raise the SLR is by divesting deposits off the balance sheet, thereby reducing their total leverage exposure.<b>In addition to divesting deposits through the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool, guiding deposits to be invested in money market funds is also a feasible approach.</b>After entering March, a large amount of funds began to flow into money market funds, but the recent sharp drop in short-term bond issuance forced money market funds to seek out the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tools to temporarily store excess liquidity.<b>The recent surge in overnight reverse repos is partly due to the need for US money market funds to temporarily store hot money. In other words, excess liquidity is effectively absorbed by money market funds rather than entering the risk asset market. As a result, the prices of various risk assets have not experienced another surge since the pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d981578f46e99127eb50bbd769ba85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4、</b><b>How will the Federal Reserve respond?</b></p><p><b>Whether the Federal Reserve will make a Tweak at its June policy meeting deserves further attention. At its April policy meeting, the Federal Reserve expressed concern about the continued decline in overnight interest rates and indicated that appropriate guidance on the target interest rate may be needed in the future.</b></p><p>Following the subprime mortgage crisis, as Federal Funds rate remained below the Interest Rate ON Excess Reserves (IOER), which should have been the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve created a \"sub-floor\" to curb the continued decline in Federal Funds rate. The \"sub-floor\" is the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) mentioned above.<b>Therefore, the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor is essentially a special \"double bottom\" structure, with the excess reserve rate guiding the Federal Funds rate trend, while the overnight reverse repurchase rate plays a supporting role.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's target interest rate is set at an integer multiple of 25 basis points, and the current target rate is 0-25 basis points. After 2018, the Federal Reserve proposed that the excess reserve rate and the overnight reverse repurchase rate could be adjusted by less than 25 basis points. For example, the current excess reserve rate is 10 basis points and the overnight reverse repurchase rate is 0 basis points. The Federal Reserve can simultaneously adjust it upwards by 5 basis points to guide the target rate upwards, but the overall target rate will still be kept within 0-25 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6657b1d580a0c5df248eff7fad901d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The current loose liquidity among US banks means that the supportive effect of loose monetary policy on the real economy is declining marginally.</b>We believe that the current excess liquidity situation will not improve until the Federal Reserve actually tapers QE. However, this does not mean that the Federal Reserve will immediately signal a tapering of QE. Currently, the Federal Reserve has approximately 50 eligible reverse repurchase counterparties (including commercial banks and money market funds), with each counterparty having a transaction limit of $80 billion.<b>Compared to the volume of overnight reverse repurchase operations seen recently, there is still considerable room to absorb the temporary surplus liquidity. Therefore, we believe that the official disclosure of the signal of tapering QE may have to wait until there is a greater improvement in the job market and 75% vaccination.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The recurring COVID-19 pandemic has prompted the Federal Reserve to taper its bond purchases ahead of schedule.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470359\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470359","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1105560825","content_text":"作者：靳毅团队\n1、美国货币市场“水漫金山”\n近期美国货币市场呈现出流动性泛滥的趋势。3月份以来，美国货币市场利率呈现下降趋势，其中，美国联邦基金利率从1月份起便持续下行，目前维持在0.06%水平。在美联储0-25BP的目标利率的控制下，联邦基金利率无法跌破零，目前已经几乎处于降无可降的境地。\n正是因为联邦基金利率受下限影响，无法在QE时期反映真实隔夜市场流动性情况，次贷危机后，学界曾经创设Wu-Xia影子利率来衡量QE时期联邦基金利率的真实水平。目前，Wu-Xia影子利率已经低至“缩减恐慌”前夕利率水平。\n\n在当下货币市场流动性泛滥的背景下，美联储隔夜逆回购操作激增。美联储逆回购与央行逆回购操作相反，美联储逆回购通过向符合要求的机构出售国债以及MBS，并在到期时回收，来达到向市场收敛短期流动性的目的。\n值得一提的是，美联储逆回购的发起方并非美联储本身，而是这些符合要求的交易对手。因此，逆回购本质上并非美联储在主动回收流动性。存款机构在季末，出于监管需求，往往有降低杠杆敞口的倾向，而机构可以通过隔夜逆回购来短暂压降杠杆。所以，隔夜逆回购往往在季度末会出现放量的现象。而近期美联储隔夜逆回购在季中就已经开始放量，市场流动性宽裕程度可见一斑。\n2、什么造成了近期的流动性宽松？\n当下美国市场的流动性泛滥存在一定的必然性。宏观上来看，疫情以来，美国的三轮刺激政策以及量化宽松无疑是目前流动性宽松的根本原因；微观上来看，监管政策的变化，以及短期资金的供需关系也是造成目前流动性宽松的“催化剂”，具体来看可以分为以下4大原因：（1）疫情后，银行存贷失衡；（2）TGA账户压降，银行超储增长；（3）SLR豁免不续作，银行监管压力增加；（4）3月份以来，短债供给明显不足。\n2.1\n疫情后，银行存贷失衡\n疫情以来，银行存款剧增，而贷款增加不显著，是造成目前银行间乃至货币市场流动性泛滥的主要原因之一。造成银行存款剧增的原因是：一方面，去年3月份以来，美国企业开始出现囤积现金用以抵御经营风险的现象；另一方面，在三轮刺激政策的连续投放下，居民在银行的存款也持续增加。\n\n而造成银行贷款增加弱于存款增加的主要原因有二：\n（1）疫情后，银行提高贷款门槛。经美联储统计，各项银行贷款业务，在2020年1-3季度，都对贷款人要求有所提高，其中，2季度的信用收缩最为明显，以信用卡为例，有85.8%的商业银行收紧了对信用卡的申请要求。因此，贷款门槛提高是贷款增速较慢的原因之一。\n（2）企业融资有更好的渠道。疫情后，曾经涌现出一大批以消费板块债券为代表的，评级从投资级降至投机级的企业债券。但是随着刺激法案的投放，这些公司的基本面开始逐渐恢复，于是市场开始追捧这些被低估的“垃圾债”，在此背景下，市场也引发了一轮“垃圾债”发行潮。因此，疫情后，企业融资对银行的依赖性降低，这也是银行贷款增速慢于存款增速的原因。\n\n2.2\nTGA账户压降，银行超储增长\n3月份以来，美联储TGA账户大幅压降，向银行体系“输血”，造成近期流动性宽裕。美国财政与实体经济链接，一般通过财政部在纽约联储开设的TGA账户来实现。TGA账户的增减主要受两方面因素影响：\n（1）政府转移支付。如疫情以后的三轮刺激法案，均由政府向个人发放支票进行转移支付。居民持票向商业银行汇兑，而商业银行再次持票向美联储进行汇兑。此过程中，美联储资产负债表的变动均体现在负债端，表现为财政部在美联储的TGA账户减记，而相应商业银行的美联储的超额准备金账户增记。\n（2）国债到期不续滚。当商业银行持有国债到期后，财政部以TGA账户向商业银行进行还本付息，在此期间，美联储资产负债表同样表现为TGA账户减记，而相应商业银行的美联储的超额准备金账户增记。而发行新的国债则有相反效果。\n因此，综合以上两点，TGA账户与商业银行超额准备金此消彼长。3月份以来银行间流动性增强的原因，一部分来自于TGA的大幅压降使得银行超额准备金增加。一方面，第三轮刺激法案通过，财政上的大量支出使得TGA大量流出，居民通过兑换支票使得商业银行超额准备金增加。另一方面，美国2019年8月暂停了债务限额，而到期日为7月31日，于是，近期债券滚动发行量减少，也使得TGA下降，进而使得商业银行超额准本金增加。\n\n2.3\nSLR豁免到期不续做，银行监管压力增加\n次贷危机后，美联储通过SLR（补充杠杆率）监管，来限制大型银行的杠杆水平。一般来说，对于普通商业银行，美联储对SLR的监管要求为为3%；而对于在全球范围内有重要影响的大型商业银行，美联储的监管要求为5%。\n3月份，SLR豁免（SLR Waiver）不续做，使得监管标准提高，造成了当前银行间流动性相对过剩。疫情期间，美联储为了增加银行对实体经济的支持，推出了SLR豁免，既银行持有国债以及在美联储的准备金账户，不被纳入进总杠杆敞口的计算。2021年3月31日，美联储对SLR豁免不续做，意味着银行总杠杆敞口将增加，SLR有潜在下降风险。\n由于SLR=1级核心资本/总杠杆敞口，为了使得SLR能够满足监管要求，银行一般可以通过：\n（1）补充1级核心资本。然而，由于1级核心资本往往值银行的普通股、优先股以及留存收益。短期内要增加核心资本成本大且难以实现，因此补充核心资本往往不是银行的首要选择。\n（2）压降总杠杆敞口。在总杠杆敞口上，银行往往通过让负债端的存款脱表，来达到总杠杆敞口降低的目的，而向美联储发起隔夜逆回购申请可以有效使得存款脱表。这是近期能看到隔夜逆回购激增的另一原因。\n\n2.4\n3月份以来，短债供给明显不足\n进入3月份，美国短债发行显著收缩，使得大量热钱“无的放矢”。如上文所述，美联储债务上限将于今年7月底重启，届时，如果国会不能解决债务上限问题，则债务限额将重回2019年以前22万亿美元水平，截止4月份，美国债务存量为28万亿美元左右，有压降债务的必要性。因此3月以来，短债到期后，滚动发行量骤减，短期国债净发行量从3月份起显著为负。在此格局下，市场上热钱多，短券少也是造成当下银行间流动性过剩的原因之一。\n\n3、为何宽裕流动性没有抬升资产价格？\n虽然，近期从美联储隔夜逆回购量上的确能看出银行间流动性宽松，但是进入5月份以来，标普500和道琼斯工业指数涨势均显疲软，而受流动性影响较大的比特币也出现了向下回调的迹象。疫情后各类资产价格的上涨，毋庸置疑与宏观宽松的流动性相关，而近期的流动性宽裕并没有造成资产价格继续抬升的主要原因在于，银行出于监管需求，正在向货币基金出让短期流动性。\n\n正如上文所述，银行抬高SLR的主要途径是通过剥离存款出表，进而降低总杠杆敞口。而剥离存款除了通过美联储逆回购工具外，引导存款投资于货币基金也是可行途径之一。进入3月份后，大量资金开始涌入货币市场基金，而近期的短债发行量骤减，使得货币基金不得不寻求美联储逆回购工具来暂时存放过剩的流动性。近期我们看到的隔夜逆回购激增，有一部分来自于美国货币基金暂时存放热钱的需求，换言之，多余流动性被货币基金有效吸收，而非进入风险资产市场，因此各类风险资产价格并未再次出现疫情以后大涨的行情。\n\n4、美联储将如何应对？\n在6月份的议息会议上，美联储是否会进行拧转操作（Tweak）值得进一步关注。在4月份的议息会议中，美联储已经表露出对当下隔夜利率不断下行的担扰，并表示未来可能会需要对目标利率进行适当引导。\n次贷危机后，由于联邦基金利率持续低于本该作为利率走廊下限的超额准备金利率（IOER），美联储创立了“次底”（Sub Floor）来遏制联邦基金利率的持续下行，而“次底”便是上文所提及的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）。因此，本质上美联储的利率走廊为特殊的“双底”结构，超额储备金利率引导联邦基金利率走势，而隔夜逆回购利率起到托底作用。\n美联储目标利率的调控为25BP的整数倍，目前目标利率为0-25BP。2018年以后，美联储曾经提出了对超额准备金利率和隔夜逆回购利率可以以小于25BP的幅度进行调整。比如，目前超额准备金利率为10BP，隔夜逆回购利率为0BP，美联储可以同时向上微调5BP，引导目标利率上行，但整体目标利率仍控制在0-25BP以内。\n\n目前美国银行间的流动性宽松意味着宽货币政策对实体经济的扶持作用正在边际下降。我们认为当下流动性过剩的现象在美联储实际缩减QE前并不会有所改观。但这也并不意味着，美联储会立刻释放缩减QE的信号。目前美联储拥有50家左右符合条件的逆回购交易对手方（包括商业银行和货币基金），每个对手方的交易上限为800亿美元，相较于近期看到的隔夜逆回购操作量，仍有相当大的空间来吸收暂时盈余的流动性。因此，我们认为正式透露缩减QE信号可能还是要等到就业市场有更大改善，以及疫苗的75%接种。\n风险提示\n新冠疫情反复，美联储提早缩减购债。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169366570,"gmtCreate":1623817530090,"gmtModify":1703820410450,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169366570","repostId":"1161735706","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":172608299,"gmtCreate":1626956387611,"gmtModify":1703481277877,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172608299","repostId":"1149284740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176102812,"gmtCreate":1626868877436,"gmtModify":1703479560667,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176102812","repostId":"2153439276","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153439276","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626868213,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153439276?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 19:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple has been slapped in the face: its iPhone has been compromised by spyware.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153439276","media":"CSDN","summary":"上周末，国外多家知名媒体共同披露了一款名为“飞马（Pegasus）”的手机间谍软件——由以色列软件监控公司 NSO 开发，用于监视记者、律师和政治家等较有影响力的人。\n据报道，“飞马”一旦侵入手机，就","content":"<p>Last weekend, several well-known foreign media outlets jointly disclosed a mobile phone spyware called \"Pegasus\"—developed by the Israeli software monitoring company NSO, used to monitor influential people such as journalists, lawyers, and politicians.</p><p>According to reports, once \"Pegasus\" hacks into a mobile phone, it can extract text messages, photos, and emails without the user's knowledge, record calls, and remotely turn on the phone's microphone and camera, posing a great threat to user privacy. The Pegasus intrusion covered more than 50 countries around the world, and up to 50,000 people may be monitored.</p><p>The iPhone, known for its \"security,\" has also been \"breached\" this time: according to the foreign organization Amnesty International,<b>Even an iPhone 12 running iOS 14.6 can be compromised by Pegasus without even needing to click a link.</b>。</p><p>I. iMessage vulnerabilities become a breakthrough for \"Pegasus\"</p><p>As mentioned at the beginning, NSO, the developer of Pegasus, is a software monitoring company that mainly sells software to government agencies and law enforcement agencies, claiming to use it to combat crimes such as terrorism, car bombings, and drug trafficking.</p><p>The reason why NSO's \"Pegasus\" spyware has caused such a huge international uproar is that analysis has revealed that \"Pegasus\" monitors the whereabouts of people from all walks of life around the world: in \"Pegasus's\" list of 50,000 potential monitored numbers, the identities of more than 1,000 numbers have been confirmed, including 189 journalists, more than 600 politicians and government officials, 65 business executives, 85 prominent human rights activists, and several heads of state and prime ministers.</p><p>Generally, this type of spyware sends users a malicious link that indicates \"infection\" when clicked. Therefore, users can effectively avoid such risks by not clicking on unknown links. However, investigators have found that the current \"Pegasus\" is clearly an upgraded version—<b>Even if users don't click on the link, \"Pegasus\" can still secretly hack into the target's phone and conduct various espionage and surveillance activities.</b>。 Therefore, The Guardian believes that Pegasus may be the \"most powerful spyware\" to date: once successfully installed, the phone becomes a \"24-hour surveillance device\".</p><p>According to Amnesty International's testing and investigation, thousands of iPhones have been listed as potential targets for Pegasus, but it is currently impossible to confirm how many have been successfully hacked. But Danna Ingleton, Deputy Director of Technology at Amnesty International, believes this is enough to draw attention: \"Thousands of iPhones may have been compromised. This is a global problem—everyone is at risk, even those like...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Even such tech giants cannot cope with the current large-scale surveillance.</p><p>Although there are many ways to hack an iPhone, most experts believe that...<b>The iPhone, which has always been touted as \"secure,\" has a major vulnerability: iMessage.</b>。</p><p>Ironically, Apple also attempted to enhance iMessage security earlier this year by creating a feature called BlastDoor to filter out suspicious messages entering the phone. Currently, this measure does not appear to guarantee the security of iPhone users.</p><p>In response, Bill Marczak, a researcher at the Citizen Lab, a cybersecurity analyst department at the University of Toronto, said, \"Pegasus can hack into the latest version of Apple's iOS via iMessage, so it's clear that NSO has defeated BlastDoor.\"</p><p>Patrick Wardle, founder of Mac security development company Objective-See, also believes that Apple's security features, which it has always been proud of, are a double-edged sword: \"iMessage is end-to-end encrypted, which means that no one will discover the vulnerabilities you introduce, making it an excellent intrusion environment for attackers.\"</p><p>This opaque system makes it difficult for researchers to examine the internal workings of the iPhone. “Unless you’re extremely unlucky, the software an attacker has installed on your phone will never be detected,” Patrick Wardle added.</p><p>II. Apple condemns \"Pegasus,\" while NSO completely denies it.</p><p>In response to this incident, Apple, while emphasizing iPhone security, also publicly condemned the Pegasus cyberattack: \"Apple unequivocally condemns cyberattacks targeting journalists, human rights activists, and others seeking to make the world a better place. For over a decade, Apple has been at the forefront of security innovation, and therefore, security researchers unanimously agree that the iPhone is the most secure mobile device on the market.\"</p><p>Furthermore, Apple believes that spyware attacks like \"Pegasus\" are very complex, costing millions of dollars to develop, and therefore typically have a short \"shelf life\" and are targeted at specific individuals.<b>It will not pose a threat to the vast majority of Apple users.</b>。 However, Apple also stated, \"We will continue to work hard to protect all customers and continuously add new protective measures to their devices and data.\"</p><p>Meanwhile, NSO, the developer of Pegasus, completely denied the allegations, accusing the media reports of being \"full of erroneous assumptions and unverified theories,\" criticizing them for \"exaggerating,\" \"lacking factual basis,\" and questioning the reliability and authenticity of their information sources. NSO also issued a statement in response: \"Pegasus is software specifically designed to combat criminals and terrorists. We will only sell Pegasus to military, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies with good human rights records.\"</p><p>3. Confirm whether your phone is being monitored by \"Pegasus\".</p><p>Although, as Apple claims, Pegasus poses no threat to most ordinary users, Amnesty International has developed a tool called the Mobile Verification Toolkit (MVT) to help users confirm whether their phones have been monitored by Pegasus. It is currently available for Android and iOS systems. However, Amnesty International added that MVT is more accurate in detecting iPhones.</p><p>(MVT's GitHub address: https://github.com/AmnestyTech/investigations/tree/master/2021-07-18_nso)</p><p>According to reports, MVT will allow users to obtain a full iPhone backup (a complete system dump if your phone is jailbroken), and once the program is launched, MVT will scan the user's iPhone backup files for any evidence of compromise. This process takes about a minute or two, and then several files are generated in a folder containing the scan results. If MVT detects signs that the phone is suspected of being compromised, it will explain this in the output file.</p><p>However, it should be emphasized that MVT test results are not 100% accurate and may give false positives.</p>","source":"lsy1578046468581","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple has been slapped in the face: its iPhone has been compromised by spyware.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple has been slapped in the face: its iPhone has been compromised by spyware.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CSDN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 19:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last weekend, several well-known foreign media outlets jointly disclosed a mobile phone spyware called \"Pegasus\"—developed by the Israeli software monitoring company NSO, used to monitor influential people such as journalists, lawyers, and politicians.</p><p>According to reports, once \"Pegasus\" hacks into a mobile phone, it can extract text messages, photos, and emails without the user's knowledge, record calls, and remotely turn on the phone's microphone and camera, posing a great threat to user privacy. The Pegasus intrusion covered more than 50 countries around the world, and up to 50,000 people may be monitored.</p><p>The iPhone, known for its \"security,\" has also been \"breached\" this time: according to the foreign organization Amnesty International,<b>Even an iPhone 12 running iOS 14.6 can be compromised by Pegasus without even needing to click a link.</b>。</p><p>I. iMessage vulnerabilities become a breakthrough for \"Pegasus\"</p><p>As mentioned at the beginning, NSO, the developer of Pegasus, is a software monitoring company that mainly sells software to government agencies and law enforcement agencies, claiming to use it to combat crimes such as terrorism, car bombings, and drug trafficking.</p><p>The reason why NSO's \"Pegasus\" spyware has caused such a huge international uproar is that analysis has revealed that \"Pegasus\" monitors the whereabouts of people from all walks of life around the world: in \"Pegasus's\" list of 50,000 potential monitored numbers, the identities of more than 1,000 numbers have been confirmed, including 189 journalists, more than 600 politicians and government officials, 65 business executives, 85 prominent human rights activists, and several heads of state and prime ministers.</p><p>Generally, this type of spyware sends users a malicious link that indicates \"infection\" when clicked. Therefore, users can effectively avoid such risks by not clicking on unknown links. However, investigators have found that the current \"Pegasus\" is clearly an upgraded version—<b>Even if users don't click on the link, \"Pegasus\" can still secretly hack into the target's phone and conduct various espionage and surveillance activities.</b>。 Therefore, The Guardian believes that Pegasus may be the \"most powerful spyware\" to date: once successfully installed, the phone becomes a \"24-hour surveillance device\".</p><p>According to Amnesty International's testing and investigation, thousands of iPhones have been listed as potential targets for Pegasus, but it is currently impossible to confirm how many have been successfully hacked. But Danna Ingleton, Deputy Director of Technology at Amnesty International, believes this is enough to draw attention: \"Thousands of iPhones may have been compromised. This is a global problem—everyone is at risk, even those like...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Even such tech giants cannot cope with the current large-scale surveillance.</p><p>Although there are many ways to hack an iPhone, most experts believe that...<b>The iPhone, which has always been touted as \"secure,\" has a major vulnerability: iMessage.</b>。</p><p>Ironically, Apple also attempted to enhance iMessage security earlier this year by creating a feature called BlastDoor to filter out suspicious messages entering the phone. Currently, this measure does not appear to guarantee the security of iPhone users.</p><p>In response, Bill Marczak, a researcher at the Citizen Lab, a cybersecurity analyst department at the University of Toronto, said, \"Pegasus can hack into the latest version of Apple's iOS via iMessage, so it's clear that NSO has defeated BlastDoor.\"</p><p>Patrick Wardle, founder of Mac security development company Objective-See, also believes that Apple's security features, which it has always been proud of, are a double-edged sword: \"iMessage is end-to-end encrypted, which means that no one will discover the vulnerabilities you introduce, making it an excellent intrusion environment for attackers.\"</p><p>This opaque system makes it difficult for researchers to examine the internal workings of the iPhone. “Unless you’re extremely unlucky, the software an attacker has installed on your phone will never be detected,” Patrick Wardle added.</p><p>II. Apple condemns \"Pegasus,\" while NSO completely denies it.</p><p>In response to this incident, Apple, while emphasizing iPhone security, also publicly condemned the Pegasus cyberattack: \"Apple unequivocally condemns cyberattacks targeting journalists, human rights activists, and others seeking to make the world a better place. For over a decade, Apple has been at the forefront of security innovation, and therefore, security researchers unanimously agree that the iPhone is the most secure mobile device on the market.\"</p><p>Furthermore, Apple believes that spyware attacks like \"Pegasus\" are very complex, costing millions of dollars to develop, and therefore typically have a short \"shelf life\" and are targeted at specific individuals.<b>It will not pose a threat to the vast majority of Apple users.</b>。 However, Apple also stated, \"We will continue to work hard to protect all customers and continuously add new protective measures to their devices and data.\"</p><p>Meanwhile, NSO, the developer of Pegasus, completely denied the allegations, accusing the media reports of being \"full of erroneous assumptions and unverified theories,\" criticizing them for \"exaggerating,\" \"lacking factual basis,\" and questioning the reliability and authenticity of their information sources. NSO also issued a statement in response: \"Pegasus is software specifically designed to combat criminals and terrorists. We will only sell Pegasus to military, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies with good human rights records.\"</p><p>3. Confirm whether your phone is being monitored by \"Pegasus\".</p><p>Although, as Apple claims, Pegasus poses no threat to most ordinary users, Amnesty International has developed a tool called the Mobile Verification Toolkit (MVT) to help users confirm whether their phones have been monitored by Pegasus. It is currently available for Android and iOS systems. However, Amnesty International added that MVT is more accurate in detecting iPhones.</p><p>(MVT's GitHub address: https://github.com/AmnestyTech/investigations/tree/master/2021-07-18_nso)</p><p>According to reports, MVT will allow users to obtain a full iPhone backup (a complete system dump if your phone is jailbroken), and once the program is launched, MVT will scan the user's iPhone backup files for any evidence of compromise. This process takes about a minute or two, and then several files are generated in a folder containing the scan results. If MVT detects signs that the phone is suspected of being compromised, it will explain this in the output file.</p><p>However, it should be emphasized that MVT test results are not 100% accurate and may give false positives.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/442749.html\">CSDN</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/566a41f1b3e25a62a4a31ef527df0ac4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/442749.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153439276","content_text":"上周末，国外多家知名媒体共同披露了一款名为“飞马（Pegasus）”的手机间谍软件——由以色列软件监控公司 NSO 开发，用于监视记者、律师和政治家等较有影响力的人。\n据报道，“飞马”一旦侵入手机，就可以在使用者不知情的情况下，提取短信、照片、电子邮件，对通话进行录音，远程开启手机的麦克风和摄像头，对用户隐私造成极大威胁。此次“飞马”的入侵范围更是遍布全球 50 多个国家，可能被监控人数高达 5 万。\n而一向以“安全”著称的 iPhone 这次也被“攻破”了：据国外机构 Amnesty International 发现，哪怕是 iOS 14.6 系统的 iPhone 12，“飞马”都可以入侵，甚至都不需要点击链接。\n一、iMessage 漏洞成“飞马”的突破口\n如开头所说，“飞马”的开发商 NSO 是一家软件监控公司，主要向政府机构、执法部门出售软件，号称以此打击恐怖主义、汽车爆炸及贩毒等犯罪行为。\n之所以此次 NSO 的“飞马”间谍软件会在国际引起轩然大波，是因为分析发现，“飞马”监控了全球各界人士的行踪：在“飞马”的 5 万个潜在被监控者号码清单中，1000 多个号码的使用者身份已确认，其中包括 189 名记者、600 多名政界人士和政府官员、65 名企业高管、85 名著名人权活动家和多位国家元首及总理。\n一般来说，这种间谍软件都会向用户发送一条点击即“中招”的恶意链接，因此用户只要不点击未知链接就能有效避免此类隐患。但调查专家发现，目前的“飞马”显然是升级版本——即使用户不点击链接，“飞马”依旧可以神不知鬼不觉地入侵目标对象的手机，进行各种间谍监控活动。因此，《卫报》认为“飞马”可能是迄今为止“最强的间谍软件”：一旦成功安装，手机就会成为“24 小时监控设备”。\n经 Amnesty International 测试调查，有数千部 iPhone 被列为“飞马”的潜在目标，但目前无法确认具体有多少已被成功入侵。但 Amnesty International 技术部门副主任 Danna Ingleton 认为这已足够引起重视：“数以千计的 iPhone 可能已遭到入侵。这是一个全球性的问题——每个人都面临风险，甚至像苹果这样的科技巨头也无法应对目前的大规模监控。”\n虽然入侵 iPhone 的途径有多种，但其中大多数专家都认为，向来号称“安全”的 iPhone 有一个最大的漏洞：iMessage。\n讽刺的是，苹果今年早些时候还曾试图加强 iMessage 的安全性，创建了一个名为 BlastDoor 的功能，以筛选摒除进入手机的可疑信息。目前看来，这个举措并没有保障 iPhone 用户的安全。\n对此，多伦多大学网络安全分析师部门 Citizen Lab 的研究员 Bill Marczak 说：“'飞马'可通过 iMessage 入侵苹果最新版本的 iOS，所以很明显 NSO 击败了 BlastDoor。”\nMac 安全开发公司 Objective-See 创始人 Patrick Wardle 也认为苹果一直引以为豪的安全功能是一把双刃剑：“iMessage 是端到端加密的，这就意味着没有人会发现你引入的漏洞，对攻击者而言这简直就是绝佳的入侵环境。”\n这种不透明的制度令研究人员很难检查 iPhone 的内部情况。“除非特别不走运，不然攻击者植入在手机上的软件根本不会被发现。”Patrick Wardle 补充道。\n二、苹果谴责“飞马”，NSO 全盘否认\n针对此事，苹果在强调 iPhone 安全性的同时，还公开谴责了“飞马”的网络攻击行为：“苹果明确谴责针对记者、人权活动家和其他寻求让世界变得更美好的人的网络攻击。十多年来，苹果在安全创新方面一直处于行业领先地位，因此，安全研究人员一致认为 iPhone 是市场上最安全的移动设备。”\n此外，苹果认为“飞马”这类间谍软件的攻击非常复杂，开发成本应需数百万美元，因此“保质期”通常较短，并且针对特定的个人，不会对绝大多数的苹果用户造成威胁。不过苹果也表示：“我们将继续努力保护所有客户，不断为他们的设备和数据添加新的保护措施。”\n与此同时，“飞马”的开发公司 NSO 却对此事全盘否认，指控各家媒体的报道“充满错误的假设和未经证实的理论”，斥责他们“夸大其词”、“缺乏事实依据”，质疑他们信息来源的可靠性和真实性。NSO 为此还发布了一则声明：“‘飞马’是专门用于对抗罪犯和恐怖分子的软件，我们只会把‘飞马’出售给那些有良好人权记录的军方、执法和情报部门。”\n三、确认手机是否被“飞马”监听\n虽然如苹果所说，“飞马”不会对大多数普通用户构成威胁，但 Amnesty International 还是为此开发了名为 Mobile Verification Toolkit（MVT）的工具，以帮助用户确认自己的手机是否遭到了“飞马”的监听，目前适用于 Android 和 iOS 系统。不过 Amnesty International 补充道，MVT 对  iPhone 的检测更为准确。\n（MVT 的 GitHub 地址：https://github.com/AmnestyTech/investigations/tree/master/2021-07-18_nso）\n据介绍，MVT 将让用户获取整个 iPhone 备份（如果你的手机越狱，则进行完整的系统转储），而一旦启动程序，MVT 就会扫描用户的 iPhone 备份文件以查找任何被入侵的证据。这个过程大约需要一两分钟，然后在文件夹中生成几个文件，其中包含扫描结果。如果 MVT 发现手机疑似被入侵的迹象，会在输出的文件中说明。\n不过需要强调一点，MVT 的检测结果并非百分百准确，也会有“误报”的可能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142795145,"gmtCreate":1626174876887,"gmtModify":1703754805529,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142795145","repostId":"1187876311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187876311","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626174158,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187876311?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 19:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. regulators intensify investigations into SPACs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187876311","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场消息：美国监管机构加大对特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)的调查力度，重点关注银行从交易中收取的费用。\n知情人士表示，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)正在研究某些费用结构是否会鼓励SPAC的承销商达成不合适","content":"<p>Market news: U.S. regulators are intensifying their investigations into special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), focusing on fees charged by banks in transactions.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating whether certain fee structures could encourage underwriters of SPACs to make inappropriate deals and advise on later mergers that could expose investors to risks. They said banks that received SEC requests for information included Citigroup (CN),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>(CS.N),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>(MS.N) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(GS.N). Spokesmen for the banks declined to comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. regulators intensify investigations into SPACs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. regulators intensify investigations into SPACs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 19:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Market news: U.S. regulators are intensifying their investigations into special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), focusing on fees charged by banks in transactions.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating whether certain fee structures could encourage underwriters of SPACs to make inappropriate deals and advise on later mergers that could expose investors to risks. They said banks that received SEC requests for information included Citigroup (CN),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>(CS.N),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>(MS.N) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(GS.N). Spokesmen for the banks declined to comment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26547564993f9514a373305bf484e19","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187876311","content_text":"市场消息：美国监管机构加大对特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)的调查力度，重点关注银行从交易中收取的费用。\n知情人士表示，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)正在研究某些费用结构是否会鼓励SPAC的承销商达成不合适的交易，并为后期合并提供建议，这可能会使投资者面临风险。他们说，收到SEC要求提供信息的银行包括花旗集团(C.N)、瑞士信贷(CS.N)、摩根士丹利(MS.N)和高盛(GS.N)。这些银行的发言人拒绝置评。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146255705,"gmtCreate":1626085382007,"gmtModify":1703753025017,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146255705","repostId":"2150587497","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150587497","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626084362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150587497?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 18:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Music \"spins off\" Kuwo","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150587497","media":"界面新闻","summary":"7月9日腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称“腾讯音乐”）下发内部邮件，宣布对QQ音乐和酷我在内的业务线和相关人员进行调整。\n根据界面新闻拿到的独家信息，在本次调整中，QQ音乐业务线将成立长音频业务中心，负责Q","content":"<p><div>On July 9, Tencent Music Entertainment Group (hereinafter referred to as \"Tencent Music\") issued an internal email announcing adjustments to its business lines, including QQ Music and Kuwo, and related personnel. According to exclusive information obtained by Jiemian News, in this adjustment, QQ Music's business line will establish a Long Audio Business Center to be responsible for the product development of the QQ Music Long Audio Zone. Kuwo Music's most profitable business, \"Juxing Live,\" will be led by Xie Huan, a senior executive at Kugou Music. The commercialization of Kuwo Music's business line will be handled by Liu Xiankai, General Manager of Tencent Music's Commercial Advertising Department. Vice President of Tencent Music, Head of Kuwo's Business Line...</p><p><a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-07-12/detail-ikqciyzk5031008.d.html?vt=4\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Music \"spins off\" Kuwo</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Music \"spins off\" Kuwo\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 18:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On July 9, Tencent Music Entertainment Group (hereinafter referred to as \"Tencent Music\") issued an internal email announcing adjustments to its business lines, including QQ Music and Kuwo, and related personnel. According to exclusive information obtained by Jiemian News, in this adjustment, QQ Music's business line will establish a Long Audio Business Center to be responsible for the product development of the QQ Music Long Audio Zone. Kuwo Music's most profitable business, \"Juxing Live,\" will be led by Xie Huan, a senior executive at Kugou Music. The commercialization of Kuwo Music's business line will be handled by Liu Xiankai, General Manager of Tencent Music's Commercial Advertising Department. Vice President of Tencent Music, Head of Kuwo's Business Line...</p><p><a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-07-12/detail-ikqciyzk5031008.d.html?vt=4\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-07-12/detail-ikqciyzk5031008.d.html?vt=4\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b0e20af83068bad18f229c59bbe10fa","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-07-12/detail-ikqciyzk5031008.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150587497","content_text":"7月9日腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称“腾讯音乐”）下发内部邮件，宣布对QQ音乐和酷我在内的业务线和相关人员进行调整。\n根据界面新闻拿到的独家信息，在本次调整中，QQ音乐业务线将成立长音频业务中心，负责QQ音乐长音频专区的产品研发工作；酷我音乐旗下最赚钱的业务“聚星直播”，将交由酷狗音乐的高管谢欢领导；酷我音乐业务线的商业化业务将交给腾讯音乐商业广告部总经理刘宪凯负责。\n腾讯音乐副总裁、酷我业务线CEO史力学将兼任QQ音乐长音频业务中心的负责人，向腾讯音乐CEO梁柱直接汇报。\n本次调整既有深入整合腾讯音乐各版块业务的意图，也能缓解腾讯音乐面临的监管层政策压力。\n酷我音乐线下一位总监对界面新闻表示，将长音频业务从酷我剥离出去组建独立BU，将酷我的直播业务“聚星”交给酷狗高管领导，将酷我商业化业务交给QQ音乐的相关领导负责，“（酷我）现在的趋势就是拆分业务，整合进其它部门，缓解政策压力”。\n\n\n据界面新闻了解，史力学在内部权限很大，也是腾讯音乐长音频业务BU的实际负责人，但对外一直保持低调。\n在4月份的架构调整中，腾讯音乐曾在集团层面设立长音频业务线，与QQ音乐、酷我音乐和酷狗音乐业务线保持平行架构。长音频业务BU包含懒人听书业务，以及酷我畅听业务及相关团队。\n腾讯音乐内部一位业务中层对界面新闻表示，在集团层面的长音频业务BU之外，单独成立QQ音乐的长音频业务中心，有双保险的成分，也可以被理解为变相赛马，后续长音频业务仍然保有调整可能。\n在腾讯音乐5月8日的大调整中被委以重任的刘宪凯（腾讯音乐商业广告部总经理、QQ音乐业务线平台产品部总经理），在本次调整后，将兼任酷我音乐产品&商业化负责人，负责酷我音乐的平台产品业务、音乐收费等商业化、广告业务，同时向梁柱和史力学汇报。\n“相当于把酷我的商业化交给了集团负责”，前述总监对界面新闻表示，这也是集团层面收编业务BU商业化业务及团队的最新进展。\n酷狗副总裁、酷狗直播业务负责人谢欢，将兼任酷我直播业务的负责人，向陈琳琳（集团副总裁、酷狗业务线负责人）和史力学双向汇报。酷我业务线下聚星直播的产品技术负责人慕亚非和运营负责人苗李杰，工作关系转为向谢欢汇报。\n“让酷狗的人来管我们的直播，内部都在讨论，酷我是不是要被拆掉了”，酷我业务线内容板块的一位资深员工对界面新闻表示。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141351032,"gmtCreate":1625839850026,"gmtModify":1703749634023,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141351032","repostId":"1153517973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153517973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625833888,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153517973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 20:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix's Q2 earnings preview: Will the \"terrifying\" scene happen again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153517973","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月9日消息，新增用户可谓是Netflix, Inc. 的恐怖数据，在Q1，因为新增用户增长不及预期，市场完全忽略财报业绩超预期，财报发布的盘后直接将股价打下10个点，使得尽管奈飞Q2股价保持上行，但","content":"<p>July 9th news: The number of new users can be described as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix, Inc.</a>The terrifying data came in Q1. Because new user growth fell short of expectations, the market completely ignored the better-than-expected financial results. After the earnings report was released, the stock price dropped by 10 percentage points. As a result, although Netflix's stock price continued to rise in Q2, it still did not return to the $549.57 it reached on the eve of the first quarter report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c5c7fe1d4932c67ef807197daa3dce\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the US stock market closed on July 20, Netflix will release its Q2 2021 financial report. Will this \"terrifying\" scene happen again? What are some key points worth noting?</p><p><b>First Quarter Performance Review</b></p><p>Netflix's earnings and revenue in the first quarter of this year both exceeded market expectations, but user growth declined sharply, far exceeding expectations. As a result, Netflix's stock price plummeted after the earnings release, falling by more than 10% rapidly, and at one point dropping to 13%.</p><p>Financial reports show that Netflix's revenue in the first quarter was $7.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, exceeding market expectations of $7.14 billion; Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.75, up 139% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $2.98; Net income was $1.707 billion, up 141% year-on-year from $709 million in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03edbbf55e3473625b74db2f5593e02a\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Netflix's gross profit margin hit a record high of 46% in the first quarter, mainly due to content production delays and lower costs. The market expects gross profit margin to decline to 44% in the second quarter.</p><p>What gave the stock price a wake-up call in the first quarter was the number of new users mentioned earlier. The financial report shows that<b>Netflix's net increase in global paying subscribers in the first quarter was only 3.98 million, nearly 37% lower than the market expectation of 6.29 million, and nearly 75% lower than the net increase in paying subscribers in the first quarter of last year.</b>The market expects the net increase in users to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e98b98696cd8ec1444f7eb1e423d54e2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The main reason for the lower-than-expected user growth is that the rapid growth in 2020 overdrawn future user growth, as well as the growth in offline activities brought about by the economic recovery.</p><p><b>What factors are worth noting in the second quarter:</b></p><p><b>1. Can new users return to high-speed growth?</b></p><p>Netflix attributes the weak growth in new users in the first quarter to the base effect and the impact of the pandemic on content production, or rather, the rapid growth in 2020 overdrawn future user growth, as well as the growth in offline activities brought about by the economic recovery.</p><p>Will this situation improve in the second quarter? In the short term, due to the still high level of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic globally, coupled with the inability to fully recover drama production,<b>Therefore, the company's user growth still faces uncertainty in the short term.</b>However, thanks to its massive content barriers and user experience, the company's overall user retention rate is still improving, and user stickiness remains good. The company has also continued to improve its ARPPU by raising subscription prices and improving its account system. In the first quarter, the company's overall ARPPU was US$11.50 (+6.1%), a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>In the long run, the general trend of users migrating from traditional media to streaming media platforms has not changed.</b>Netflix will continue to benefit from this major trend. The peak number of TV households worldwide (excluding China) is close to 800 million, which is still very ample compared to Netflix's 200 million subscribers.</p><p><b>2. Competition in streaming media is fierce, and Netflix continues to improve its content production capabilities.</b></p><p><b>Content production saw a significant increase in effort in the second quarter.</b>In late June, Netflix announced a partnership with Amblin Partners, led by globally renowned director Steven Spielberg. According to the agreement, Amblin expects to produce at least two films for Netflix each year, but the specific start date has not yet been determined. Spielberg may even personally oversee some of the films, and Netflix is expected to fund some of them. Amblin's previous film, \"Green Book,\" won the 2019 Academy Award for Best Picture.</p><p>In addition, Netflix has demonstrated its ambitions in the fields of virtual reality and gaming. Recently, Netflix announced that it has partnered with a powerful...<a href=\"https://c.duomai.com/track.php?site_id=242986&euid=&t=https%3A%2F%2Flist.jd.com%2Flist.html%3Fcat%3D737%2C794%2C798%26ev%3D4155_76344%26sort%3Dsort_rank_asc%26trans%3D1%26JL%3D2_1_0%23J_crumbsBar\" target=\"_blank\">television</a>Producer Shonda Rhimes reached a new agreement. The series \"Bridgerton,\" produced by Remus, has been a hit on Netflix. According to Netflix, Bridgerton is the most-watched series in the streaming platform's history.</p><p>This new deal strengthens Netflix's partnership with Remus in several ways, such as opening the door to feature films and investing in Remus's corporate programs to diversify Hollywood before and after the camera.<b>Netflix also stated that its partnership with Remus includes exclusive opportunities to produce and distribute potential games and virtual reality content.</b></p><p><b>In the long run, CITIC Securities stated that Netflix's competitive advantage remains clear.</b>The market is generally concerned about the impact of mainstream entertainment companies such as Warner Bros., Disney, and NBCU, as well as tech giants such as Apple and Amazon, on Netflix's user growth. However, Netflix relies on its industrialized production capabilities, strong content recommendation and operation capabilities, and its competitive barriers remain prominent. The company's continuous improvements on mobile devices (such as caching and short comedies) will further enhance user stickiness.</p><p>Currently, Netflix accounts for less than 10% of TV time in the United States, and the medium- to long-term potential for TAM remains broad. With Netflix's continuous optimization of content production and cash management, coupled with the improvement in profits brought about by network effects and economies of scale due to user growth, Netflix's asset-liability structure and cash generation capabilities are expected to improve significantly.</p><p>According to Netflix's first-quarter shareholder letter, the company repaid $500 million in debt in the first quarter and plans to reduce the debt to $10-15 billion. In 2021, based on the FCF achieving balance, a repurchase program of no more than US$5 billion will be conducted. The positive progress in capital structure and shareholder policies will also provide positive support for the company's stock price in the medium to long term.</p><p><b>Netflix's Q2 Earnings Guidance</b></p><p>Regarding performance guidance,<b>Netflix expects to add 1 million paying subscribers in the second quarter, far less than the net increase of 10.06 million in the second quarter of last year.</b>，<b>The net increase of 4.44 million was also far lower than market expectations.</b>； Second-quarter EPS is expected to be $3.16, higher than the market expectation of $2.67.</p><p><b>How does Bloomberg view Netflix's second-quarter results?</b></p><p>Bloomberg consensus expects Netflix's second-quarter revenue to be $7.322 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.1%; Adjusted net income was $1.544 billion, a year-over-year increase of 35.2%; Adjusted earnings per share were $3.34, up 33.1% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28c18ac772955d78f138edf2b350102\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix's Q2 earnings preview: Will the \"terrifying\" scene happen again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix's Q2 earnings preview: Will the \"terrifying\" scene happen again?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-09 20:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 9th news: The number of new users can be described as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix, Inc.</a>The terrifying data came in Q1. Because new user growth fell short of expectations, the market completely ignored the better-than-expected financial results. After the earnings report was released, the stock price dropped by 10 percentage points. As a result, although Netflix's stock price continued to rise in Q2, it still did not return to the $549.57 it reached on the eve of the first quarter report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c5c7fe1d4932c67ef807197daa3dce\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the US stock market closed on July 20, Netflix will release its Q2 2021 financial report. Will this \"terrifying\" scene happen again? What are some key points worth noting?</p><p><b>First Quarter Performance Review</b></p><p>Netflix's earnings and revenue in the first quarter of this year both exceeded market expectations, but user growth declined sharply, far exceeding expectations. As a result, Netflix's stock price plummeted after the earnings release, falling by more than 10% rapidly, and at one point dropping to 13%.</p><p>Financial reports show that Netflix's revenue in the first quarter was $7.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, exceeding market expectations of $7.14 billion; Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.75, up 139% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $2.98; Net income was $1.707 billion, up 141% year-on-year from $709 million in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03edbbf55e3473625b74db2f5593e02a\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, Netflix's gross profit margin hit a record high of 46% in the first quarter, mainly due to content production delays and lower costs. The market expects gross profit margin to decline to 44% in the second quarter.</p><p>What gave the stock price a wake-up call in the first quarter was the number of new users mentioned earlier. The financial report shows that<b>Netflix's net increase in global paying subscribers in the first quarter was only 3.98 million, nearly 37% lower than the market expectation of 6.29 million, and nearly 75% lower than the net increase in paying subscribers in the first quarter of last year.</b>The market expects the net increase in users to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e98b98696cd8ec1444f7eb1e423d54e2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The main reason for the lower-than-expected user growth is that the rapid growth in 2020 overdrawn future user growth, as well as the growth in offline activities brought about by the economic recovery.</p><p><b>What factors are worth noting in the second quarter:</b></p><p><b>1. Can new users return to high-speed growth?</b></p><p>Netflix attributes the weak growth in new users in the first quarter to the base effect and the impact of the pandemic on content production, or rather, the rapid growth in 2020 overdrawn future user growth, as well as the growth in offline activities brought about by the economic recovery.</p><p>Will this situation improve in the second quarter? In the short term, due to the still high level of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic globally, coupled with the inability to fully recover drama production,<b>Therefore, the company's user growth still faces uncertainty in the short term.</b>However, thanks to its massive content barriers and user experience, the company's overall user retention rate is still improving, and user stickiness remains good. The company has also continued to improve its ARPPU by raising subscription prices and improving its account system. In the first quarter, the company's overall ARPPU was US$11.50 (+6.1%), a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>In the long run, the general trend of users migrating from traditional media to streaming media platforms has not changed.</b>Netflix will continue to benefit from this major trend. The peak number of TV households worldwide (excluding China) is close to 800 million, which is still very ample compared to Netflix's 200 million subscribers.</p><p><b>2. Competition in streaming media is fierce, and Netflix continues to improve its content production capabilities.</b></p><p><b>Content production saw a significant increase in effort in the second quarter.</b>In late June, Netflix announced a partnership with Amblin Partners, led by globally renowned director Steven Spielberg. According to the agreement, Amblin expects to produce at least two films for Netflix each year, but the specific start date has not yet been determined. Spielberg may even personally oversee some of the films, and Netflix is expected to fund some of them. Amblin's previous film, \"Green Book,\" won the 2019 Academy Award for Best Picture.</p><p>In addition, Netflix has demonstrated its ambitions in the fields of virtual reality and gaming. Recently, Netflix announced that it has partnered with a powerful...<a href=\"https://c.duomai.com/track.php?site_id=242986&euid=&t=https%3A%2F%2Flist.jd.com%2Flist.html%3Fcat%3D737%2C794%2C798%26ev%3D4155_76344%26sort%3Dsort_rank_asc%26trans%3D1%26JL%3D2_1_0%23J_crumbsBar\" target=\"_blank\">television</a>Producer Shonda Rhimes reached a new agreement. The series \"Bridgerton,\" produced by Remus, has been a hit on Netflix. According to Netflix, Bridgerton is the most-watched series in the streaming platform's history.</p><p>This new deal strengthens Netflix's partnership with Remus in several ways, such as opening the door to feature films and investing in Remus's corporate programs to diversify Hollywood before and after the camera.<b>Netflix also stated that its partnership with Remus includes exclusive opportunities to produce and distribute potential games and virtual reality content.</b></p><p><b>In the long run, CITIC Securities stated that Netflix's competitive advantage remains clear.</b>The market is generally concerned about the impact of mainstream entertainment companies such as Warner Bros., Disney, and NBCU, as well as tech giants such as Apple and Amazon, on Netflix's user growth. However, Netflix relies on its industrialized production capabilities, strong content recommendation and operation capabilities, and its competitive barriers remain prominent. The company's continuous improvements on mobile devices (such as caching and short comedies) will further enhance user stickiness.</p><p>Currently, Netflix accounts for less than 10% of TV time in the United States, and the medium- to long-term potential for TAM remains broad. With Netflix's continuous optimization of content production and cash management, coupled with the improvement in profits brought about by network effects and economies of scale due to user growth, Netflix's asset-liability structure and cash generation capabilities are expected to improve significantly.</p><p>According to Netflix's first-quarter shareholder letter, the company repaid $500 million in debt in the first quarter and plans to reduce the debt to $10-15 billion. In 2021, based on the FCF achieving balance, a repurchase program of no more than US$5 billion will be conducted. The positive progress in capital structure and shareholder policies will also provide positive support for the company's stock price in the medium to long term.</p><p><b>Netflix's Q2 Earnings Guidance</b></p><p>Regarding performance guidance,<b>Netflix expects to add 1 million paying subscribers in the second quarter, far less than the net increase of 10.06 million in the second quarter of last year.</b>，<b>The net increase of 4.44 million was also far lower than market expectations.</b>； Second-quarter EPS is expected to be $3.16, higher than the market expectation of $2.67.</p><p><b>How does Bloomberg view Netflix's second-quarter results?</b></p><p>Bloomberg consensus expects Netflix's second-quarter revenue to be $7.322 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.1%; Adjusted net income was $1.544 billion, a year-over-year increase of 35.2%; Adjusted earnings per share were $3.34, up 33.1% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28c18ac772955d78f138edf2b350102\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"872\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2224e6b43e75f835dbd8bb6d8c4972c","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153517973","content_text":"7月9日消息，新增用户可谓是Netflix, Inc. 的恐怖数据，在Q1，因为新增用户增长不及预期，市场完全忽略财报业绩超预期，财报发布的盘后直接将股价打下10个点，使得尽管奈飞Q2股价保持上行，但股价仍未回到一季报前夜的549.57美元。\n\n7月20日美股盘后，奈飞将发布2021年Q2财务报告，“恐怖”一幕会再次上演吗？有哪些要点值得关注。\n一季度业绩回顾\n奈飞今年一季度的盈利和收入都高于市场预期，但用户增长大幅下滑，下降的幅度远超预期，导致在业绩公布后，奈飞股价在盘后跳水，跌幅迅速超过10%，一度跌至13%。\n财报显示，一季度奈飞营收71.6亿美元，同比增长24%，超出市场预期的71.4亿美元；稀释后每股收益（EPS）3.75美元，同比增长139%，高于市场预期的2.98美元；净利润17.07亿美元，同比增长141%，去年同期为7.09亿美元。\n\n此外，奈飞一季度毛利率创新高至46%，主要原因是内容制作延期，成本下降所致。市场预期，二季度毛利率将下滑至44%。\n一季度给股价“当头棒喝”的是前面提到的新增用户数。财报显示，一季度奈飞的全球付费用户仅净增加398万，比市场预期增幅629万低近37%，较去年一季度的净增付费用户同比减少将近75%，市场预期净增用户的同比降幅约为60%。\n\n用户增长不及预期的主要原因是，2020年较快的增长透支了未来的用户增量，以及经济复苏带来的线下活动增长。\n二季度有哪些因素值得关注：\n1、新增用户能否重回高速增长？\n对于一季度业新增用户增长疲软，奈飞方面认为，主要归咎于基数效应和疫情影响内容生产，或者说是2020年较快的增长透支了未来的用户增量，以及经济复苏带来的线下活动增长。\n二季度这种情况会好转吗？短期看，由于疫情在全球范围内的不确定性仍然较高，叠加剧集制作未能完全恢复，因此，短期内公司用户增长仍面临不确定性。不过，依靠庞大的内容壁垒以及用户体验，公司整体的用户留存率仍在提升，用户粘性依旧较好。而公司亦通过上调订阅价格、完善账户体系等方式，持续提升ARPPU，一季度公司整体ARPPU为11.5美元（+6.1%），相较上季度改善显著。\n长期看，用户从传统媒体向流媒体平台迁移的大趋势没有改变，奈飞将会持续受益于这一大趋势。全球（不包含中国）电视家庭数的高峰水平接近8亿，对比奈飞2亿的用户数来看，空间依然非常充足。\n2、流媒体竞争白热化，奈飞继续提升内容制作能力\n二季度内容制作发力明显。6月底，奈飞宣布与全球知名导演史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格领导的Amblin Partners达成合作关系。根据协议，Amblin预计每年至少为Netflix制作两部电影，具体开始时间暂未确定。斯皮尔伯格甚至有可能亲自负责一些电影，预计奈飞将为其中一些作品提供资金。Amblin此前制作的《绿皮书》，摘得2019年奥斯卡最佳影片奖。\n此外，奈飞还展示出对虚拟现实和游戏领域的野心。近日，奈飞宣布已同实力强大的电视制作人珊达·莱姆斯（Shonda Rhimes）达成新协议。莱姆斯制作的系列剧《布里奇顿》在Netflix上大放异彩。据Netflix称，《布里奇顿》是该流媒体平台历史上收视率最高的一部剧。\n这次的新交易从几个方面强化了Netflix与莱姆斯的合作，比如为剧情电影敞开大门、投资莱姆斯的公司节目使镜头前后的好莱坞更多样化。Netflix还表示，和莱姆斯的合作也包括独家制作和分发潜在游戏与虚拟现实内容的机会。\n长期看，中信证券表示，奈飞的竞争优势依旧明显。市场普遍担忧华纳、迪士尼、NBCU等主流娱乐公司以及苹果、亚马逊等科技巨头对奈飞用户增长的冲击。但奈飞依靠工业化的生产能力、强大的内容推荐与运营能力，其竞争壁垒依旧突出，而公司在移动端的持续改进（例如缓存、短喜剧）等将进一步提升用户粘性。\n当前，奈飞占到美国TV的时长不足10%，中长期的TAM依旧广阔。而随着奈飞在内容生产、现金管理上的持续优化，叠加用户增长带来的网络效应、规模效应对利润的改善，奈飞资产负债结构、现金创造能力料将大幅改善。\n据奈飞一季度股东信，公司一季度偿还5亿美元债务，并计划将债务规模压缩至100-150亿美元。2021年在FCF实现平衡的基础上，进行不超过50亿美元的回购计划。而资本结构、股东政策的积极进展，亦将对公司中长期股价产生正向支撑。\n奈飞提供的二季度业绩指导\n在业绩指引方面，奈飞预计，二季度新增付费用户100万，远不及去年二季度的净增1006万，也远低于市场预期的净增444万；预计二季度EPS 3.16美元，高于市场预期的2.67美元。\n彭博社如何看奈飞二季度业绩\n彭博社一致预期，奈飞二季度营收为73.22亿美元，同比增长19.1%；调整后净利润为15.44亿美元，同比增长35.2%；调整后每股收益3.34美元，同比增长33.1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146069182,"gmtCreate":1626044772546,"gmtModify":1703752125865,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146069182","repostId":"2150304740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153944019,"gmtCreate":1625007942032,"gmtModify":1703849819705,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153944019","repostId":"1164662782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164662782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624967212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164662782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 19:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dingdong Maicai set its IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range at $23.5 per ADS.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164662782","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"叮咚买菜据悉将美股IPO价格定在指导区间的底部23.5美元/ADS。\n相关阅读\n即将上市的叮咚买菜再次更新招股书，其筹资规模大幅缩减至此前额度的四分之一。最新的招股书显示，叮咚买菜首次公开发行370万","content":"<p>Dingdong Maicai has reportedly set its US IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range of $23.5 per ADS.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai, which is about to go public, has updated its prospectus again, significantly reducing its fundraising scale to a quarter of its previous amount. The latest prospectus shows that Dingdong Maicai has issued 3.7 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) in its initial public offering, with the issue price range remaining the same as before, between $23.50 and $25.50. Based on the upper limit of the issue price range, Dingdong Maicai will raise approximately US$94 million.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly offer 14 million American Depositary Shares, which could raise nearly $360 million based on the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the most recently announced fundraising scale has been reduced to a quarter of the previous amount, which is an overall reduction of more than 70%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dingdong Maicai set its IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range at $23.5 per ADS.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDingdong Maicai set its IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range at $23.5 per ADS.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 19:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dingdong Maicai has reportedly set its US IPO price at the bottom of its guidance range of $23.5 per ADS.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p>Dingdong Maicai, which is about to go public, has updated its prospectus again, significantly reducing its fundraising scale to a quarter of its previous amount. The latest prospectus shows that Dingdong Maicai has issued 3.7 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) in its initial public offering, with the issue price range remaining the same as before, between $23.50 and $25.50. Based on the upper limit of the issue price range, Dingdong Maicai will raise approximately US$94 million.</p><p>A week ago, Dingdong Maicai's first updated prospectus showed that it would publicly offer 14 million American Depositary Shares, which could raise nearly $360 million based on the upper limit of the offering price range. In contrast, the most recently announced fundraising scale has been reduced to a quarter of the previous amount, which is an overall reduction of more than 70%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164662782","content_text":"叮咚买菜据悉将美股IPO价格定在指导区间的底部23.5美元/ADS。\n相关阅读\n即将上市的叮咚买菜再次更新招股书，其筹资规模大幅缩减至此前额度的四分之一。最新的招股书显示，叮咚买菜首次公开发行370万股美国存托股票(ADS)，发行价格区间与此前相同，维持在23.5美元至25.5美元之间。按照发行价区间上限计算，叮咚买菜筹资金额大约在9400万美元左右。\n一周前，叮咚买菜首次更新的招股书显示其将公开发行1400万股美国存托股票，彼时按照发行价区间上限计算可筹资达到近3.6亿美元。对比之下，最近一次宣布的募资规模缩减至此前额度的四分之一，即总体缩减幅度超70%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153942732,"gmtCreate":1625007900026,"gmtModify":1703849819056,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153942732","repostId":"1105841462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105841462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624966743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105841462?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 19:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Full Truck Alliance: A Victory for Industrial Routers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841462","media":"子弹财经","summary":"6月22日，满帮集团正式在纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码“YMM”，成为中国的“数字货运第一股”，最终发行价定为19美元/ADS，市值接近210亿美元，约合1300亿人民币，意味着又一只千亿独角兽浮出水面。","content":"<p><div>On June 22, Full Truck Alliance (Manbang) officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"YMM,\" becoming China's \"first digital freight stock.\" The final issue price was set at $19 per ADS, with a market capitalization of nearly $21 billion, equivalent to approximately 130 billion RMB, signifying the emergence of another unicorn with a market capitalization of 100 billion RMB. Another IPO with a market capitalization of hundreds of billions of yuan has emerged, and another victory for the industrial internet. About eight years ago, China had only 150 million smartphone users, about one-ninth of today's number. However, a group of industry pioneers saw an opportunity in this. They realized that the mobile internet brought about a completely different...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9ebSESetOZAnqNgK3TqcrQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"zdcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Full Truck Alliance: A Victory for Industrial Routers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFull Truck Alliance: A Victory for Industrial Routers\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">子弹财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 19:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On June 22, Full Truck Alliance (Manbang) officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"YMM,\" becoming China's \"first digital freight stock.\" The final issue price was set at $19 per ADS, with a market capitalization of nearly $21 billion, equivalent to approximately 130 billion RMB, signifying the emergence of another unicorn with a market capitalization of 100 billion RMB. Another IPO with a market capitalization of hundreds of billions of yuan has emerged, and another victory for the industrial internet. About eight years ago, China had only 150 million smartphone users, about one-ninth of today's number. However, a group of industry pioneers saw an opportunity in this. They realized that the mobile internet brought about a completely different...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9ebSESetOZAnqNgK3TqcrQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9ebSESetOZAnqNgK3TqcrQ\">子弹财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127506d9d77106d93efdeab5620bcd08","relate_stocks":{"YMM":"满帮"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9ebSESetOZAnqNgK3TqcrQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841462","content_text":"6月22日，满帮集团正式在纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码“YMM”，成为中国的“数字货运第一股”，最终发行价定为19美元/ADS，市值接近210亿美元，约合1300亿人民币，意味着又一只千亿独角兽浮出水面。\n又一个千亿市值IPO诞生，又一次产业互联网的胜利。\n大概在8年前，中国的智能手机用户只有1.5亿人，大约相当现在的九分之一，有一批行业先行者却从中看到了机会。他们意识到，移动互联网带来的是完全不同的机会，它可以让每个物理个体，不论是人还是物，都能拥有一个属于自己的数字ID，并可以进行实时的交互、反馈和协同，一种新的基于广域连接的商业模式即将浮出水面……\n时隔八年，其中最有能力的一批企业正在证明自己当初对格局判断的准确，其中，就有满帮这个当今全球最大的数字货运平台。\n1、满帮上市\n6月22日，满帮集团（以下简称“满帮”）正式在纽交所挂牌上市，股票代码“YMM”，成为中国的“数字货运第一股”，最终发行价定为19美元/ADS，市值接近210亿美元，约合1300亿人民币，意味着又一只千亿独角兽浮出水面。\n招股书显示，满帮作为领先的数字货运平台，通过打通线上车货匹配及交易闭环，实现了货主与司机的无缝连接，并提供货运黄页服务、货运经纪服务、线上交易服务及一系列增值服务，已构建起覆盖公路运输全服务场景的货运新生态。\n阿里系出身的张晖，于2013年年底，在经过对物流行业的深度调研后，自己投资并带领一支规模不大的团队，研发了面向卡车司机和物流公司的运力调度软件——运满满，填补了长期以来国内跨城运力智能调度的空白。\n这个团队可以说完全是白手起家，起家的所在地南京，也不是一个创业公司扎堆的地方。起初，张晖只租了一个10平米的小房子，他担心招不到人，为了让办公室显得大一点，还在墙上贴了镜子。说来幸运，还真汇聚了一批默默坚持的人一起走到了今天。\n当时的互联网+出行市场已经风生水起，但重得多、痛点也深得多的货运行业，却鲜有人试图用互联网的方法论进行改造和升级，张晖的老同事王刚当即追加了天使轮。\n不过，2013年才入局，真的称不上太早。因为从2014年开始，许许多多打着做“货和车的连接”的车货匹配平台，也杀入了赛道。但是，很少有人意识到，仅仅做车和货的浅层次连接，是不足以真正改造这个行业的。\n绝大多数类似项目启动的时候，“产业互联网”概念还没有勃兴，也正是因为没有意识到产业互联网对于这个项目在本质上的重要性，经过若干年的资本洗礼，数以百计的车货匹配平台纷纷倒下，一时间行业盛传车货匹配是「伪命题」，其实大部分企业的基本模式没错，但是没有足够的技术支撑来实现。\n张晖后来曾调侃地说：“有人说我们是靠地推起家的，其实，我们更注重创新。创新的第一步体现在了我们把线下的货源搬到了线上，之后经过不懈地努力，又把线上非标的黄页模式变成了标准化的闭环模式。与一些通过充分竞争后才进入无人区的大公司不同，我们从创业的第一天开始就在无人区，一路探索过往不曾有人探索过的土壤。”当时，中国的互联网出行行业刚刚赢得了一场对国际巨头的险胜。但了解幕后消息的张晖却发现，当中国出行公司刚刚实现用移动互联网进行简单的运力调度的时候，国际出行巨头已经运用了多项平台级的产业互联网技术，如线路自动规划、定价实时波动和数据积累用于预测等，这让他们做出了一个很重要、很超前的判断——\n技术驱动+商业模式创新，用产业互联网而不是消费互联网的技术改造行业，才是长期主义。\n这个判断，如今是尽人皆知，但在8年前就看到，才是真正的洞察力。\n如今，单纯的商业模式创新已经基本穷尽，技术驱动+商业模式创新才是下一个时代的主题，这解释了为什么BAT纷纷投入产业互联网技术，解释了贝壳找房、京东健康这样的企业为何选择互联网+产业的形态投入。\n所以，如果要问满帮和别的企业有什么不同？那么，相同的都是车-货的直接连接，不同的是背后的支撑。\n2、满帮究竟解决了什么问题？\n严格意义上说，今天的满帮集团，承载了运满满创始人张晖和货车帮创始人戴文建的共同梦想，两人也同为集团董事会成员。\n所以，在上市时张晖第一个感谢的就是戴文建，他说：“首先，我想感谢一下我的好兄弟老戴，老戴是货车帮的创始人，也是我们这个行业的拓荒者，他把创业的精神留在了企业的基因里，直到今天，公司依旧有好多老戴的影子。”\n远在成都的货车帮于2011年成立，此后渐渐崛起，而运满满成立于2013年，后面是一段长达数年的厮杀，直至2017年，在投资人的撮合下，运满满和货车帮正式合并，自此奠定了难以撼动的地位。\n一家很有影响力的媒体当时预言说：这次合并的结果是，之前中国的互联网行业里，消费互联网巨头层出不穷，但产业互联网出现群体性缺失。现在两家公司走到了一起，不仅万亿级的物流行业格局即将被改写，未来更有望打造出中国产业互联网巨头。\n当时，看到满帮未来的不仅有媒体，还有一些眼光独到的投资人。\nGGV纪源资本从2016年开始投资满帮集团的前身之一“运满满”，GGV纪源资本管理合伙人符绩勋表示，货运物流市场过去是一个低效、传统的市场，满帮集团通过移动互联网让信息更扁平化，通过App直接使货源匹配到司机，解决了传统线下物流行业货源短缺、价格虚高、投诉率高和货运流转低效等问题，利用智能物流提高了资源整合效率，提高了供需双方的匹配速度，极大地优化了物流行业。\n可见，行业的痛点，表层是匹配效率，底层则是物流货运市场存在一个多年的难题——供需服务效率问题。\n满帮集团如何突出重围的？「子弹财经」认为，是勇于面对和解决痛点。\n当时货运市场的第一痛点，是市场极为庞大，但结构过于长尾。\n根据CIC报告，中国是世界上最大的公路运输市场，2020年公路运输市场总规模达到6.2万亿元。从市场规模来说，货运市场很大，但由于国内有一大批长尾货主（需求端）和卡车司机（供给端）都是小微企业甚至是个人，整个市场的供需资源非常零散，是一个典型的非标、散乱型市场。如何将散乱的市场整合起来，对平台的考验极大。\n满帮的做法，一开始就是平台型架构。\n简单来说，就是以满帮为代表的平台通过整合社会运力资源形成运力池，连接货主及货代企业形成订单池，辅以大数据和AI技术进行精准匹配连接，实现物流资源的配置优化，显著提高了存量资产的使用效率。以公路运输市场为例，平台的出现使车辆空驶率从之前的40%-50%下降到20%左右。\n当时的货运市场的第二大痛点，是没有一个公信力足够高的平台，传统货运的信息流转和交易达成，本质上是熟人经济，信任成本虽低，但效率却非常低下。\n与这种低下的匹配效率所不相适应的，是当时随着电商经济发展而规模迅速膨胀的货运行业。一方面是巨大的需求得不到满足，另一方面是货运行业的数字化迟迟得不到进展。\n张晖看得很清楚，熟人经济加上调度室的几块小黑板，就是当时主流的货运行业存在现状，这导致因信息不对称而影响了货主与司机的高效匹配，同时交易的复杂度很高，但数字化程度却很低。\n此前，运满满（货车帮的做法也类似）通过线上信息平台，高效匹配货运供需两端，减少了过往第三方的层层转包，打通线上车货匹配及交易闭环，完成货主与司机的无缝连接。\n而这次至关重要的合并，极大地加强了行业的集中度——新的满帮集团，其平台注册的卡车司机数量超过第二至第五大数字货运平台总和的两倍，这不仅加速了数字化货运在行业的普及度，也使得先进生产力得以充分发挥群聚效应和网络效应。\n这次合并可以说一举奠定了满帮的领导地位，但并不意味着行业就此平静，依旧有追赶者层出不穷，而满帮的护城河又在哪里？\n3、满帮的核心护城河是什么？\n根据网经社电子商务研究中心发布《2020年物流科技“独角兽”榜》：菜鸟网络、京东物流和满帮集团分别位于榜单前三的位置。\n可见，在行业观察者眼里，满帮的本质是“科技+物流”，而不是单纯的物流。而产业互联网的价值就在于，它呈现ABC合流（AI+Big Data+Cloud）的融合，随着企业的运转，数据会不断累积，累积的数据又能反向优化基于AI的数字化运营和预测能力，最终形成一个可以自己生长、升级的数字壁垒。\n「子弹财经」认为，满帮的第一护城河，是踏踏实实的搭建了行业基础设施。\n可以说，满帮成功的基础，是进行了一整套数字化、标准化和智能化的物流基础设施建设。如果说这属于“硬件”，那其中的“软件”，则包括⼀套全⾯的公路运输交易规则和相关的应⽤程序，它“重写”了这个古老行业的“软内核”，进而赋予其“硬核实力”的升级。\n满帮的物流基础设施已将货运匹配效率从⼏天⼤幅提⾼到⼏分钟。2020年12⽉，满帮的平均运单匹配时间（衡量从货主通过满帮的平台下订单到卡车司机⽀付运费保证⾦完成交易的平均时间）为13分钟，⽐2019年12⽉提⾼了44.3%。\n而深受多方欢迎的是，同时，满帮作为一个直接连接供需双方的平台，消除了既往这一行业复杂的交易结构，由于交易层次的削减，实现了真正意义上的“没有中间商赚差价”，从而降低运输成本。而这并不是一笔小钱，因为中间商费⽤通常占到货主⽀付运费的10-15%。\n此外，满帮还通过降低空驶率、减少燃料浪费，从而实现环保。在2020年，满帮通过更智能的物流基础设施减少了330000公吨的碳排放。\n\n而这一切的支持是“三化”，即数字化、标准化和智能化。\n在数字化层面，满帮已经将货运匹配流程完全数字化，货主和卡车司机随时随地通过他们的⼿机进行连接，而满帮以透明和结构化的⽅式提供数据，以便货主和卡车司机可以快速做出明智的决定。\n在标准化层面，满帮收集了⼀组标准参数，并且根据满帮的海量历史交易数据⽣成的附加参数与这些标准参数相互补充，从而使得运营有一套数据依据，进而，这些数据为更智能的匹配和定价算法打下了坚实的基础。\n由于有了数字化和标准化，从而使得智能化得以实现，现代人工智能的主要模式是深度学习，而深度学习的效果极大程度上取决于数据的样本量和标注水平，满帮正是因为有了更多关于交易、货主和卡车司机的数据，才可以建立一套通过全⾯的参数范围，实现更智能地匹配和定价交易，这也使得卡车司机能够从过往基于搜索、查看列表的“人找货”体验转变为基于系统推荐的“货找人”体验。\n当然，除了以上所述，满帮的第二护城河，是成体系的提供服务的能力+增值服务。\n对于基础服务方面，我们已经有充分的描述。所以「子弹财经」特别注意到，满帮还提供了⼀系列增值服务，以满⾜货主和卡车司机的各种进阶需求，例如，货主可以在满帮平台上访问运输管理系统，并寻找信贷解决⽅案和保险服务；卡车司机可以在平台上查询交规违反记录，获取保险、ETC、能源等服务。\n这些服务有些提升了货运工作的便利性，有些则有极大的商业空间可供挖掘，如能源和保险服务。\n前面虽已提及，但这里还要展开，「子弹财经」认为，满帮还有第三护城河，即数据池+运营know-how。\n满帮是移动互联网时代的原住民，在很多企业还在为数据的缺失和异构而感到难以治理时，满帮已经把创立多年来的大数据视为最珍贵的财富，在科技化建设的过程中，通过对这些数据的深入挖掘和优化利用，建立了属于自己的核心壁垒，那就是基于数据分析，驱动效率决策的提升，这是满帮能够得以不断降低成本的关键，也是它在十年间就成长为赛道领航企业的一个重要原因。\n伴随着新消费的升级，网络型物流企业的竞争已经从规模竞争走向精细化管理竞争，而精细化管理的关键在于数字化网络运营。\n事实证明，每个有海量运营数据积淀，并善用科技手段利用这些数据隐含的价值的企业，都有相对比较稳固的基本盘，例如美团、携程和贝壳找房，这样的企业即使面对竞争对手的补贴式成本竞争，也能够用差异化的竞争手段予以应对；相反，有些一度技术很强，却没有运营积淀的企业，很容易就随着技术范式的转移，快速的失去竞争力。\n这是因为什么呢？是因为运营是一门科学，现代化的运营产出的不仅是数据，还有大量的行业know how，而所有的优化都必须基于历史数据的沉淀，以及跟运营团队的具体经验相结合，才能产生持续累积的价值。\n满帮是一个典型的产业互联网企业，这体现在，大量运行的数据虽然在小B（货主、车主等）处流转，但最后回笼到满帮的大池子里，用于业务提升打磨，AI能力训练等，而这些能力又能通过满帮的自有网络去实施。\n满帮是货运行业的产业路由器，棋盘资本创始人马宏提出过这样的观点：“存量时代的‘大整合’过程中，行业所需要构建的底盘，要承担的就是一个产业路由器的角色，其链接着很多专业的小B。这其中，中心的大S（大供应链平台）是数据驱动、数据链接和网络协同，由专业的小B提供专业技能和贴身服务，全面触达消费者，实时互动，完成个性化服务。”\n而这一切满帮应有尽有。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169320076,"gmtCreate":1623817671495,"gmtModify":1703820417465,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169320076","repostId":"1105560825","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105560825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623812861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105560825?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The United States is flooded with gold, so why are risky assets \"stagflation\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105560825","media":"格隆汇","summary":"银行出于监管需求，正在向货币基金出让短期流动性。","content":"<p>Author: Jin Yi Team</p><p>1. The US money market is flooded with gold.</p><p><b>The US money market has recently shown a trend of excessive liquidity.</b>Since March, U.S. money market interest rates have been on a downward trend, with the U.S. federal funds rate continuing to decline since January and currently remaining at 0.06%. Under the control of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate of 0-25 basis points, Federal Funds rate cannot fall below zero and is currently in a situation where there is almost no way to lower it.</p><p>Because Federal Funds rate was affected by the lower limit and could not reflect the real overnight market liquidity during the QE period, after the subprime mortgage crisis, academia created the Wu-Xia shadow interest rate to measure the real level of Federal Funds rate during the QE period.<b>Currently, the Wu-Xia shadow interest rate is as low as the interest rate level on the eve of the \"reduction panic\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f2fbff2e280fe37bf341e082642f641\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of overflowing liquidity in the current money market, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase operations have surged.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operations are the opposite of central bank reverse repurchase operations. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operations aim to tighten short-term liquidity in the market by selling Treasury Bond and MBS to qualified institutions and redeeming them at maturity.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the Federal Reserve's reverse repos are not initiated by the Federal Reserve itself, but by these eligible counterparties.</b>Therefore, reverse repos are not essentially the Federal Reserve actively withdrawing liquidity. Deposit-taking institutions often tend to reduce their leverage exposure at the end of a quarter due to regulatory requirements, while institutions can temporarily reduce leverage through overnight reverse repos. Therefore, overnight reverse repos often see a surge in volume at the end of the quarter.<b>The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repos have recently begun to increase in volume in the middle of the quarter, demonstrating the ample liquidity in the market.</b></p><p><b>2. What caused the recent easing of liquidity?</b></p><p>The current overabundance of liquidity in the US market is somewhat inevitable.<b>From a macro perspective,</b>Since the pandemic, the United States<b>The three rounds of stimulus policies and quantitative easing are undoubtedly the fundamental reasons for the current loose liquidity.</b>；<b>From a micro perspective</b>Changes in regulatory policies and the supply and demand of short-term funds are also \"catalysts\" for the current loose liquidity, which can be divided into the following four main reasons:<b>(1) After the pandemic, banks experienced an imbalance between deposits and loans; (2) TGA accounts have been reduced, and banks' excess reserves have increased; (3) The non-renewal of SLR exemptions has increased regulatory pressure on banks; (4) Since March, the supply of short-term bonds has been significantly insufficient.</b></p><p>2.1</p><p><b>Post-pandemic imbalance between bank deposits and loans</b></p><p><b>Since the start of the pandemic, bank deposits have surged while loans have increased insignificantly, which is one of the main reasons for the current overflow of liquidity in the interbank and even money markets.</b>The reasons for the surge in bank deposits are:<b>On the one hand</b>Since March of last year, American companies have begun to hoard cash to hedge against operational risks;<b>on the other hand</b>With the continuous implementation of three rounds of stimulus policies, residents' bank deposits have also continued to increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a954b658761447e8614a2c5a2c7136\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There are two main reasons why the increase in bank loans is weaker than the increase in deposits:</p><p><b>(1) After the pandemic, banks raised their loan thresholds.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, various bank loan businesses increased their requirements for borrowers in the first three quarters of 2020. Among them, the credit contraction in the second quarter was the most obvious. Taking credit cards as an example, 85.8% of commercial banks tightened their application requirements for credit cards.<b>Therefore, the increased loan threshold is one of the reasons for the slow loan growth.</b></p><p><b>(2) Corporate financing has better channels.</b>Following the pandemic, a large number of corporate bonds, represented by consumer sector bonds, saw their ratings downgraded from investment-grade to speculative-grade. However, with the introduction of the stimulus bill, the fundamentals of these companies began to gradually recover, and the market began to chase after these undervalued \"junk bonds.\" Against this backdrop, the market also triggered a wave of \"junk bond\" issuance.<b>Therefore, after the pandemic, corporate financing dependence on banks has decreased, which is why bank loan growth is slower than deposit growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441b9cb73cbae5e54f765111fd62eb49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.2</p><p><b>TGA accounts are being reduced, while banks' excess reserves are increasing.</b></p><p><b>Since March, the Federal Reserve has significantly reduced its TGA account, injecting blood into the banking system, resulting in recent ample liquidity.</b>The link between U.S. fiscal policy and the real economy is generally achieved through the TGA account opened by the Treasury Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The increase or decrease in TGA accounts is mainly affected by two factors:</p><p><b>(1) Government transfer payments.</b>For example, in the three rounds of stimulus bills since the pandemic, the government issued checks to individuals for transfer payments. Residents hold tickets to transfer money to commercial banks, which in turn hold tickets to transfer money to the Federal Reserve. During this process, the changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet were all reflected on the liability side, manifested in the Treasury Department's write-down of the Fed's TGA account, while the corresponding commercial banks' write-ups of the Fed's excess reserve accounts.</p><p><b>(2) Treasury Bond will not be renewed upon expiration.</b>When commercial banks hold Treasury Bond that mature, the Ministry of Finance uses the TGA account to repay principal and interest to the commercial banks. During this period, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet also shows a write-down of the TGA account, while the commercial banks' excess reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve are increased. Issuing new Treasury Bond has the opposite effect.</p><p><b>Therefore, considering the above two points, the TGA account and the excess reserves of commercial banks have fluctuated. The increase in interbank liquidity since March is partly due to the significant reduction in TGA, which has led to an increase in banks' excess reserves. On the one hand</b>With the passage of the third round of stimulus bills, massive fiscal spending led to a large outflow of TGAs, and residents cashed checks, increasing commercial banks' excess reserves.<b>on the other hand</b>The United States suspended its debt limit in August 2019, with the maturity date set for July 31. As a result, the recent rolling bond issuance has decreased, which has also led to a decrease in TGA (Total Amount of Bonds), which in turn has led to an increase in the excess quasi-principal of commercial banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec9ac8661bdb99c05ad155a0e19684\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.3</p><p><b>SLR exemptions expire and are not renewed, increasing regulatory pressure on banks.</b></p><p>Following the subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve used SLR (Supplemental Leverage Ratio) regulation to limit the leverage levels of large banks. Generally speaking, for ordinary commercial banks, the Federal Reserve's regulatory requirement for SLR is 3%; For large commercial banks with significant global influence, the Federal Reserve's regulatory requirement is 5%.</p><p><b>In March, the SLR Waiver was not renewed.</b>This has led to higher regulatory standards, resulting in a relative excess of interbank liquidity. During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve introduced the SLR exemption to increase banks' support for the real economy, meaning that banks' Treasury Bond and reserve accounts with the Federal Reserve were not included in the calculation of total leverage exposure.<b>On March 31, 2021, the Federal Reserve discontinued the SLR waiver, which means that banks' total leverage exposure will increase, and there is a potential risk of a decline in SLR.</b></p><p><b>Since SLR = Tier 1 Core Capital / Total Leverage Exposure, in order for SLR to meet regulatory requirements, banks can generally:</b></p><p><b>(1) Replenish Tier 1 core capital.</b>However, since Tier 1 core capital tends to be the bank's common stock, preferred shares, and retained earnings.<b>Increasing core capital in the short term is costly and difficult to achieve, so replenishing core capital is often not the first choice for banks.</b></p><p><b>(2) Pressure reduction total lever exposure.</b>Regarding total leverage exposure, banks often reduce total leverage exposure by removing deposits from the liability side of the balance sheet.<b>Initiating an overnight reverse repurchase application with the Federal Reserve can effectively remove deposits from the balance sheet. This is another reason why we have seen a surge in overnight reverse repos recently.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874cb51f637e2211a9256a32b9546b05\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.4</p><p><b>Since March, the supply of short-term bonds has been significantly</b></p><p><b>Entering March, the issuance of US short-term debt contracted significantly, leaving a large amount of hot money \"aimless\".</b>As mentioned above, the Federal Reserve's debt ceiling will be reinstated at the end of July this year. At that time, if Congress cannot resolve the debt ceiling issue, the debt ceiling will return to the $22 trillion level before 2019. As of April, the U.S. debt stock was about $28 trillion, making it necessary to reduce the debt. Therefore, since March, the rolling issuance of short-term bonds has plummeted after they matured, and the net issuance of short-term Treasury Bond has been significantly negative since March.<b>In this context, the abundance of hot money and the scarcity of short-term coupons in the market is one of the reasons for the current excess liquidity among banks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce4bfda3254f63396f090cb6af6dd8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3、</b><b>Why didn't ample liquidity boost asset prices?</b></p><p>Although the recent Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase volume does indicate loose interbank liquidity, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both shown weakness since the beginning of May, while Bitcoin, which is heavily affected by liquidity, has also shown signs of a downward correction.<b>The rise in asset prices after the pandemic is undoubtedly related to the easing of macroeconomic liquidity. The main reason why the recent ample liquidity has not caused asset prices to continue to rise is that banks are selling short-term liquidity to money market funds for regulatory reasons.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca45c8aa0407f85cc50d9c3b611c678\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As mentioned above, the main way banks raise the SLR is by divesting deposits off the balance sheet, thereby reducing their total leverage exposure.<b>In addition to divesting deposits through the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool, guiding deposits to be invested in money market funds is also a feasible approach.</b>After entering March, a large amount of funds began to flow into money market funds, but the recent sharp drop in short-term bond issuance forced money market funds to seek out the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tools to temporarily store excess liquidity.<b>The recent surge in overnight reverse repos is partly due to the need for US money market funds to temporarily store hot money. In other words, excess liquidity is effectively absorbed by money market funds rather than entering the risk asset market. As a result, the prices of various risk assets have not experienced another surge since the pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d981578f46e99127eb50bbd769ba85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4、</b><b>How will the Federal Reserve respond?</b></p><p><b>Whether the Federal Reserve will make a Tweak at its June policy meeting deserves further attention. At its April policy meeting, the Federal Reserve expressed concern about the continued decline in overnight interest rates and indicated that appropriate guidance on the target interest rate may be needed in the future.</b></p><p>Following the subprime mortgage crisis, as Federal Funds rate remained below the Interest Rate ON Excess Reserves (IOER), which should have been the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve created a \"sub-floor\" to curb the continued decline in Federal Funds rate. The \"sub-floor\" is the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) mentioned above.<b>Therefore, the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor is essentially a special \"double bottom\" structure, with the excess reserve rate guiding the Federal Funds rate trend, while the overnight reverse repurchase rate plays a supporting role.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's target interest rate is set at an integer multiple of 25 basis points, and the current target rate is 0-25 basis points. After 2018, the Federal Reserve proposed that the excess reserve rate and the overnight reverse repurchase rate could be adjusted by less than 25 basis points. For example, the current excess reserve rate is 10 basis points and the overnight reverse repurchase rate is 0 basis points. The Federal Reserve can simultaneously adjust it upwards by 5 basis points to guide the target rate upwards, but the overall target rate will still be kept within 0-25 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6657b1d580a0c5df248eff7fad901d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The current loose liquidity among US banks means that the supportive effect of loose monetary policy on the real economy is declining marginally.</b>We believe that the current excess liquidity situation will not improve until the Federal Reserve actually tapers QE. However, this does not mean that the Federal Reserve will immediately signal a tapering of QE. Currently, the Federal Reserve has approximately 50 eligible reverse repurchase counterparties (including commercial banks and money market funds), with each counterparty having a transaction limit of $80 billion.<b>Compared to the volume of overnight reverse repurchase operations seen recently, there is still considerable room to absorb the temporary surplus liquidity. Therefore, we believe that the official disclosure of the signal of tapering QE may have to wait until there is a greater improvement in the job market and 75% vaccination.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The recurring COVID-19 pandemic has prompted the Federal Reserve to taper its bond purchases ahead of schedule.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States is flooded with gold, so why are risky assets \"stagflation\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States is flooded with gold, so why are risky assets \"stagflation\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Jin Yi Team</p><p>1. The US money market is flooded with gold.</p><p><b>The US money market has recently shown a trend of excessive liquidity.</b>Since March, U.S. money market interest rates have been on a downward trend, with the U.S. federal funds rate continuing to decline since January and currently remaining at 0.06%. Under the control of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate of 0-25 basis points, Federal Funds rate cannot fall below zero and is currently in a situation where there is almost no way to lower it.</p><p>Because Federal Funds rate was affected by the lower limit and could not reflect the real overnight market liquidity during the QE period, after the subprime mortgage crisis, academia created the Wu-Xia shadow interest rate to measure the real level of Federal Funds rate during the QE period.<b>Currently, the Wu-Xia shadow interest rate is as low as the interest rate level on the eve of the \"reduction panic\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f2fbff2e280fe37bf341e082642f641\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of overflowing liquidity in the current money market, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase operations have surged.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operations are the opposite of central bank reverse repurchase operations. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operations aim to tighten short-term liquidity in the market by selling Treasury Bond and MBS to qualified institutions and redeeming them at maturity.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the Federal Reserve's reverse repos are not initiated by the Federal Reserve itself, but by these eligible counterparties.</b>Therefore, reverse repos are not essentially the Federal Reserve actively withdrawing liquidity. Deposit-taking institutions often tend to reduce their leverage exposure at the end of a quarter due to regulatory requirements, while institutions can temporarily reduce leverage through overnight reverse repos. Therefore, overnight reverse repos often see a surge in volume at the end of the quarter.<b>The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repos have recently begun to increase in volume in the middle of the quarter, demonstrating the ample liquidity in the market.</b></p><p><b>2. What caused the recent easing of liquidity?</b></p><p>The current overabundance of liquidity in the US market is somewhat inevitable.<b>From a macro perspective,</b>Since the pandemic, the United States<b>The three rounds of stimulus policies and quantitative easing are undoubtedly the fundamental reasons for the current loose liquidity.</b>；<b>From a micro perspective</b>Changes in regulatory policies and the supply and demand of short-term funds are also \"catalysts\" for the current loose liquidity, which can be divided into the following four main reasons:<b>(1) After the pandemic, banks experienced an imbalance between deposits and loans; (2) TGA accounts have been reduced, and banks' excess reserves have increased; (3) The non-renewal of SLR exemptions has increased regulatory pressure on banks; (4) Since March, the supply of short-term bonds has been significantly insufficient.</b></p><p>2.1</p><p><b>Post-pandemic imbalance between bank deposits and loans</b></p><p><b>Since the start of the pandemic, bank deposits have surged while loans have increased insignificantly, which is one of the main reasons for the current overflow of liquidity in the interbank and even money markets.</b>The reasons for the surge in bank deposits are:<b>On the one hand</b>Since March of last year, American companies have begun to hoard cash to hedge against operational risks;<b>on the other hand</b>With the continuous implementation of three rounds of stimulus policies, residents' bank deposits have also continued to increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a954b658761447e8614a2c5a2c7136\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There are two main reasons why the increase in bank loans is weaker than the increase in deposits:</p><p><b>(1) After the pandemic, banks raised their loan thresholds.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, various bank loan businesses increased their requirements for borrowers in the first three quarters of 2020. Among them, the credit contraction in the second quarter was the most obvious. Taking credit cards as an example, 85.8% of commercial banks tightened their application requirements for credit cards.<b>Therefore, the increased loan threshold is one of the reasons for the slow loan growth.</b></p><p><b>(2) Corporate financing has better channels.</b>Following the pandemic, a large number of corporate bonds, represented by consumer sector bonds, saw their ratings downgraded from investment-grade to speculative-grade. However, with the introduction of the stimulus bill, the fundamentals of these companies began to gradually recover, and the market began to chase after these undervalued \"junk bonds.\" Against this backdrop, the market also triggered a wave of \"junk bond\" issuance.<b>Therefore, after the pandemic, corporate financing dependence on banks has decreased, which is why bank loan growth is slower than deposit growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/441b9cb73cbae5e54f765111fd62eb49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.2</p><p><b>TGA accounts are being reduced, while banks' excess reserves are increasing.</b></p><p><b>Since March, the Federal Reserve has significantly reduced its TGA account, injecting blood into the banking system, resulting in recent ample liquidity.</b>The link between U.S. fiscal policy and the real economy is generally achieved through the TGA account opened by the Treasury Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The increase or decrease in TGA accounts is mainly affected by two factors:</p><p><b>(1) Government transfer payments.</b>For example, in the three rounds of stimulus bills since the pandemic, the government issued checks to individuals for transfer payments. Residents hold tickets to transfer money to commercial banks, which in turn hold tickets to transfer money to the Federal Reserve. During this process, the changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet were all reflected on the liability side, manifested in the Treasury Department's write-down of the Fed's TGA account, while the corresponding commercial banks' write-ups of the Fed's excess reserve accounts.</p><p><b>(2) Treasury Bond will not be renewed upon expiration.</b>When commercial banks hold Treasury Bond that mature, the Ministry of Finance uses the TGA account to repay principal and interest to the commercial banks. During this period, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet also shows a write-down of the TGA account, while the commercial banks' excess reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve are increased. Issuing new Treasury Bond has the opposite effect.</p><p><b>Therefore, considering the above two points, the TGA account and the excess reserves of commercial banks have fluctuated. The increase in interbank liquidity since March is partly due to the significant reduction in TGA, which has led to an increase in banks' excess reserves. On the one hand</b>With the passage of the third round of stimulus bills, massive fiscal spending led to a large outflow of TGAs, and residents cashed checks, increasing commercial banks' excess reserves.<b>on the other hand</b>The United States suspended its debt limit in August 2019, with the maturity date set for July 31. As a result, the recent rolling bond issuance has decreased, which has also led to a decrease in TGA (Total Amount of Bonds), which in turn has led to an increase in the excess quasi-principal of commercial banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec9ac8661bdb99c05ad155a0e19684\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.3</p><p><b>SLR exemptions expire and are not renewed, increasing regulatory pressure on banks.</b></p><p>Following the subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve used SLR (Supplemental Leverage Ratio) regulation to limit the leverage levels of large banks. Generally speaking, for ordinary commercial banks, the Federal Reserve's regulatory requirement for SLR is 3%; For large commercial banks with significant global influence, the Federal Reserve's regulatory requirement is 5%.</p><p><b>In March, the SLR Waiver was not renewed.</b>This has led to higher regulatory standards, resulting in a relative excess of interbank liquidity. During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve introduced the SLR exemption to increase banks' support for the real economy, meaning that banks' Treasury Bond and reserve accounts with the Federal Reserve were not included in the calculation of total leverage exposure.<b>On March 31, 2021, the Federal Reserve discontinued the SLR waiver, which means that banks' total leverage exposure will increase, and there is a potential risk of a decline in SLR.</b></p><p><b>Since SLR = Tier 1 Core Capital / Total Leverage Exposure, in order for SLR to meet regulatory requirements, banks can generally:</b></p><p><b>(1) Replenish Tier 1 core capital.</b>However, since Tier 1 core capital tends to be the bank's common stock, preferred shares, and retained earnings.<b>Increasing core capital in the short term is costly and difficult to achieve, so replenishing core capital is often not the first choice for banks.</b></p><p><b>(2) Pressure reduction total lever exposure.</b>Regarding total leverage exposure, banks often reduce total leverage exposure by removing deposits from the liability side of the balance sheet.<b>Initiating an overnight reverse repurchase application with the Federal Reserve can effectively remove deposits from the balance sheet. This is another reason why we have seen a surge in overnight reverse repos recently.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874cb51f637e2211a9256a32b9546b05\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2.4</p><p><b>Since March, the supply of short-term bonds has been significantly</b></p><p><b>Entering March, the issuance of US short-term debt contracted significantly, leaving a large amount of hot money \"aimless\".</b>As mentioned above, the Federal Reserve's debt ceiling will be reinstated at the end of July this year. At that time, if Congress cannot resolve the debt ceiling issue, the debt ceiling will return to the $22 trillion level before 2019. As of April, the U.S. debt stock was about $28 trillion, making it necessary to reduce the debt. Therefore, since March, the rolling issuance of short-term bonds has plummeted after they matured, and the net issuance of short-term Treasury Bond has been significantly negative since March.<b>In this context, the abundance of hot money and the scarcity of short-term coupons in the market is one of the reasons for the current excess liquidity among banks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce4bfda3254f63396f090cb6af6dd8c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3、</b><b>Why didn't ample liquidity boost asset prices?</b></p><p>Although the recent Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase volume does indicate loose interbank liquidity, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both shown weakness since the beginning of May, while Bitcoin, which is heavily affected by liquidity, has also shown signs of a downward correction.<b>The rise in asset prices after the pandemic is undoubtedly related to the easing of macroeconomic liquidity. The main reason why the recent ample liquidity has not caused asset prices to continue to rise is that banks are selling short-term liquidity to money market funds for regulatory reasons.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca45c8aa0407f85cc50d9c3b611c678\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As mentioned above, the main way banks raise the SLR is by divesting deposits off the balance sheet, thereby reducing their total leverage exposure.<b>In addition to divesting deposits through the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool, guiding deposits to be invested in money market funds is also a feasible approach.</b>After entering March, a large amount of funds began to flow into money market funds, but the recent sharp drop in short-term bond issuance forced money market funds to seek out the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tools to temporarily store excess liquidity.<b>The recent surge in overnight reverse repos is partly due to the need for US money market funds to temporarily store hot money. In other words, excess liquidity is effectively absorbed by money market funds rather than entering the risk asset market. As a result, the prices of various risk assets have not experienced another surge since the pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d981578f46e99127eb50bbd769ba85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4、</b><b>How will the Federal Reserve respond?</b></p><p><b>Whether the Federal Reserve will make a Tweak at its June policy meeting deserves further attention. At its April policy meeting, the Federal Reserve expressed concern about the continued decline in overnight interest rates and indicated that appropriate guidance on the target interest rate may be needed in the future.</b></p><p>Following the subprime mortgage crisis, as Federal Funds rate remained below the Interest Rate ON Excess Reserves (IOER), which should have been the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor, the Federal Reserve created a \"sub-floor\" to curb the continued decline in Federal Funds rate. The \"sub-floor\" is the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) mentioned above.<b>Therefore, the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor is essentially a special \"double bottom\" structure, with the excess reserve rate guiding the Federal Funds rate trend, while the overnight reverse repurchase rate plays a supporting role.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's target interest rate is set at an integer multiple of 25 basis points, and the current target rate is 0-25 basis points. After 2018, the Federal Reserve proposed that the excess reserve rate and the overnight reverse repurchase rate could be adjusted by less than 25 basis points. For example, the current excess reserve rate is 10 basis points and the overnight reverse repurchase rate is 0 basis points. The Federal Reserve can simultaneously adjust it upwards by 5 basis points to guide the target rate upwards, but the overall target rate will still be kept within 0-25 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6657b1d580a0c5df248eff7fad901d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The current loose liquidity among US banks means that the supportive effect of loose monetary policy on the real economy is declining marginally.</b>We believe that the current excess liquidity situation will not improve until the Federal Reserve actually tapers QE. However, this does not mean that the Federal Reserve will immediately signal a tapering of QE. Currently, the Federal Reserve has approximately 50 eligible reverse repurchase counterparties (including commercial banks and money market funds), with each counterparty having a transaction limit of $80 billion.<b>Compared to the volume of overnight reverse repurchase operations seen recently, there is still considerable room to absorb the temporary surplus liquidity. Therefore, we believe that the official disclosure of the signal of tapering QE may have to wait until there is a greater improvement in the job market and 75% vaccination.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The recurring COVID-19 pandemic has prompted the Federal Reserve to taper its bond purchases ahead of schedule.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470359\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470359","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1105560825","content_text":"作者：靳毅团队\n1、美国货币市场“水漫金山”\n近期美国货币市场呈现出流动性泛滥的趋势。3月份以来，美国货币市场利率呈现下降趋势，其中，美国联邦基金利率从1月份起便持续下行，目前维持在0.06%水平。在美联储0-25BP的目标利率的控制下，联邦基金利率无法跌破零，目前已经几乎处于降无可降的境地。\n正是因为联邦基金利率受下限影响，无法在QE时期反映真实隔夜市场流动性情况，次贷危机后，学界曾经创设Wu-Xia影子利率来衡量QE时期联邦基金利率的真实水平。目前，Wu-Xia影子利率已经低至“缩减恐慌”前夕利率水平。\n\n在当下货币市场流动性泛滥的背景下，美联储隔夜逆回购操作激增。美联储逆回购与央行逆回购操作相反，美联储逆回购通过向符合要求的机构出售国债以及MBS，并在到期时回收，来达到向市场收敛短期流动性的目的。\n值得一提的是，美联储逆回购的发起方并非美联储本身，而是这些符合要求的交易对手。因此，逆回购本质上并非美联储在主动回收流动性。存款机构在季末，出于监管需求，往往有降低杠杆敞口的倾向，而机构可以通过隔夜逆回购来短暂压降杠杆。所以，隔夜逆回购往往在季度末会出现放量的现象。而近期美联储隔夜逆回购在季中就已经开始放量，市场流动性宽裕程度可见一斑。\n2、什么造成了近期的流动性宽松？\n当下美国市场的流动性泛滥存在一定的必然性。宏观上来看，疫情以来，美国的三轮刺激政策以及量化宽松无疑是目前流动性宽松的根本原因；微观上来看，监管政策的变化，以及短期资金的供需关系也是造成目前流动性宽松的“催化剂”，具体来看可以分为以下4大原因：（1）疫情后，银行存贷失衡；（2）TGA账户压降，银行超储增长；（3）SLR豁免不续作，银行监管压力增加；（4）3月份以来，短债供给明显不足。\n2.1\n疫情后，银行存贷失衡\n疫情以来，银行存款剧增，而贷款增加不显著，是造成目前银行间乃至货币市场流动性泛滥的主要原因之一。造成银行存款剧增的原因是：一方面，去年3月份以来，美国企业开始出现囤积现金用以抵御经营风险的现象；另一方面，在三轮刺激政策的连续投放下，居民在银行的存款也持续增加。\n\n而造成银行贷款增加弱于存款增加的主要原因有二：\n（1）疫情后，银行提高贷款门槛。经美联储统计，各项银行贷款业务，在2020年1-3季度，都对贷款人要求有所提高，其中，2季度的信用收缩最为明显，以信用卡为例，有85.8%的商业银行收紧了对信用卡的申请要求。因此，贷款门槛提高是贷款增速较慢的原因之一。\n（2）企业融资有更好的渠道。疫情后，曾经涌现出一大批以消费板块债券为代表的，评级从投资级降至投机级的企业债券。但是随着刺激法案的投放，这些公司的基本面开始逐渐恢复，于是市场开始追捧这些被低估的“垃圾债”，在此背景下，市场也引发了一轮“垃圾债”发行潮。因此，疫情后，企业融资对银行的依赖性降低，这也是银行贷款增速慢于存款增速的原因。\n\n2.2\nTGA账户压降，银行超储增长\n3月份以来，美联储TGA账户大幅压降，向银行体系“输血”，造成近期流动性宽裕。美国财政与实体经济链接，一般通过财政部在纽约联储开设的TGA账户来实现。TGA账户的增减主要受两方面因素影响：\n（1）政府转移支付。如疫情以后的三轮刺激法案，均由政府向个人发放支票进行转移支付。居民持票向商业银行汇兑，而商业银行再次持票向美联储进行汇兑。此过程中，美联储资产负债表的变动均体现在负债端，表现为财政部在美联储的TGA账户减记，而相应商业银行的美联储的超额准备金账户增记。\n（2）国债到期不续滚。当商业银行持有国债到期后，财政部以TGA账户向商业银行进行还本付息，在此期间，美联储资产负债表同样表现为TGA账户减记，而相应商业银行的美联储的超额准备金账户增记。而发行新的国债则有相反效果。\n因此，综合以上两点，TGA账户与商业银行超额准备金此消彼长。3月份以来银行间流动性增强的原因，一部分来自于TGA的大幅压降使得银行超额准备金增加。一方面，第三轮刺激法案通过，财政上的大量支出使得TGA大量流出，居民通过兑换支票使得商业银行超额准备金增加。另一方面，美国2019年8月暂停了债务限额，而到期日为7月31日，于是，近期债券滚动发行量减少，也使得TGA下降，进而使得商业银行超额准本金增加。\n\n2.3\nSLR豁免到期不续做，银行监管压力增加\n次贷危机后，美联储通过SLR（补充杠杆率）监管，来限制大型银行的杠杆水平。一般来说，对于普通商业银行，美联储对SLR的监管要求为为3%；而对于在全球范围内有重要影响的大型商业银行，美联储的监管要求为5%。\n3月份，SLR豁免（SLR Waiver）不续做，使得监管标准提高，造成了当前银行间流动性相对过剩。疫情期间，美联储为了增加银行对实体经济的支持，推出了SLR豁免，既银行持有国债以及在美联储的准备金账户，不被纳入进总杠杆敞口的计算。2021年3月31日，美联储对SLR豁免不续做，意味着银行总杠杆敞口将增加，SLR有潜在下降风险。\n由于SLR=1级核心资本/总杠杆敞口，为了使得SLR能够满足监管要求，银行一般可以通过：\n（1）补充1级核心资本。然而，由于1级核心资本往往值银行的普通股、优先股以及留存收益。短期内要增加核心资本成本大且难以实现，因此补充核心资本往往不是银行的首要选择。\n（2）压降总杠杆敞口。在总杠杆敞口上，银行往往通过让负债端的存款脱表，来达到总杠杆敞口降低的目的，而向美联储发起隔夜逆回购申请可以有效使得存款脱表。这是近期能看到隔夜逆回购激增的另一原因。\n\n2.4\n3月份以来，短债供给明显不足\n进入3月份，美国短债发行显著收缩，使得大量热钱“无的放矢”。如上文所述，美联储债务上限将于今年7月底重启，届时，如果国会不能解决债务上限问题，则债务限额将重回2019年以前22万亿美元水平，截止4月份，美国债务存量为28万亿美元左右，有压降债务的必要性。因此3月以来，短债到期后，滚动发行量骤减，短期国债净发行量从3月份起显著为负。在此格局下，市场上热钱多，短券少也是造成当下银行间流动性过剩的原因之一。\n\n3、为何宽裕流动性没有抬升资产价格？\n虽然，近期从美联储隔夜逆回购量上的确能看出银行间流动性宽松，但是进入5月份以来，标普500和道琼斯工业指数涨势均显疲软，而受流动性影响较大的比特币也出现了向下回调的迹象。疫情后各类资产价格的上涨，毋庸置疑与宏观宽松的流动性相关，而近期的流动性宽裕并没有造成资产价格继续抬升的主要原因在于，银行出于监管需求，正在向货币基金出让短期流动性。\n\n正如上文所述，银行抬高SLR的主要途径是通过剥离存款出表，进而降低总杠杆敞口。而剥离存款除了通过美联储逆回购工具外，引导存款投资于货币基金也是可行途径之一。进入3月份后，大量资金开始涌入货币市场基金，而近期的短债发行量骤减，使得货币基金不得不寻求美联储逆回购工具来暂时存放过剩的流动性。近期我们看到的隔夜逆回购激增，有一部分来自于美国货币基金暂时存放热钱的需求，换言之，多余流动性被货币基金有效吸收，而非进入风险资产市场，因此各类风险资产价格并未再次出现疫情以后大涨的行情。\n\n4、美联储将如何应对？\n在6月份的议息会议上，美联储是否会进行拧转操作（Tweak）值得进一步关注。在4月份的议息会议中，美联储已经表露出对当下隔夜利率不断下行的担扰，并表示未来可能会需要对目标利率进行适当引导。\n次贷危机后，由于联邦基金利率持续低于本该作为利率走廊下限的超额准备金利率（IOER），美联储创立了“次底”（Sub Floor）来遏制联邦基金利率的持续下行，而“次底”便是上文所提及的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）。因此，本质上美联储的利率走廊为特殊的“双底”结构，超额储备金利率引导联邦基金利率走势，而隔夜逆回购利率起到托底作用。\n美联储目标利率的调控为25BP的整数倍，目前目标利率为0-25BP。2018年以后，美联储曾经提出了对超额准备金利率和隔夜逆回购利率可以以小于25BP的幅度进行调整。比如，目前超额准备金利率为10BP，隔夜逆回购利率为0BP，美联储可以同时向上微调5BP，引导目标利率上行，但整体目标利率仍控制在0-25BP以内。\n\n目前美国银行间的流动性宽松意味着宽货币政策对实体经济的扶持作用正在边际下降。我们认为当下流动性过剩的现象在美联储实际缩减QE前并不会有所改观。但这也并不意味着，美联储会立刻释放缩减QE的信号。目前美联储拥有50家左右符合条件的逆回购交易对手方（包括商业银行和货币基金），每个对手方的交易上限为800亿美元，相较于近期看到的隔夜逆回购操作量，仍有相当大的空间来吸收暂时盈余的流动性。因此，我们认为正式透露缩减QE信号可能还是要等到就业市场有更大改善，以及疫苗的75%接种。\n风险提示\n新冠疫情反复，美联储提早缩减购债。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169366570,"gmtCreate":1623817530090,"gmtModify":1703820410450,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169366570","repostId":"1161735706","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}